So Conservatives are saying that we must achieve Brexit or the Conservative party will be destroyed; but I haven't heard any of them say that we must achieve Brexit because that is what is best for the economy and integrity of the UK. The obvious reason for them not saying that is that there is no evidence that Brexit would be best for the economy and integrity of the UK. so it's all about self interest. And that's a really good reason to consign the Conservatives to history.
The Tories stopped caring about the economy or about the Union long ago. They are in salvage-what-you-can mode.
Dig through Boris’ rich archive of quotes are you’ll find lots of evidence for this.
Last Peterborough election Labour took 48% , the Tories 46%.
How many of those voters will move to the BP.
Labour are likely to lose more to the Lib Dems and Greens than to the BP. The Tories say lose half to the BP.
With the current climate the BP are favourites but I don’t think it’s a shoe in. It could be that Labour hold just enough votes to scrape over the line . They could end up winning with just 30% of the vote .
As far as the Tory Party goes I don't think the deal matters. That is not in the leader's hands. What matters is having the ability to win the next election. With someone civilised and if Corbyn stays in place I'd say they're in with a chance. With Boris or any of the rest of them them I'd say they're doomed
Johnson or Corbyn, that will be a tough choice for many millions. I wonder which way they will break?
It's an important question because the answer will determine which of two starkly different futures lie ahead.
Large state tax & spend, inside the European Union, or Small deregulated state, market primacy, outside the European Union.
I can't call it.
To paraphrase, Johnson is the worst possible party leader and PM.
One thing that might help us out of this whole fucking disaster is if both sides stop with the broad generalisations they use to denigrate their evil opponents, and stop throwing insults generated by trying to interpret Brexit from historical events and eras. PB is one of the worst places for it, full of armchair warriors and experts. The place is barely fucking habitable at the minute.
We appreciate your rising above it all and for the meta-comment.
From what you write it's probably best that you stay off PB for the foreseeable future.
Buttegieg looks to be joint 2nd favourite on betfair now for Dem nominee. I think he's a lay at 6.8.
RCP average 6.0... ! I've laid him back to the Harris line
Value in the Dem race is probably with Biden, Sanders and Warren right now.
On the GOP race, I note Mike Pence is 180/200 for president whilst Trump is 1.12/1.13 for the GOP nomination. Don't see how Trump isn't the GOP nominee unless his 239 lb 6'3 body decides to give up the ghost. In which case it'll be Pence. The Nikki Hayley 23/48 price is pure fantasy still.
Thanks for the Hayley tip. I was one of those who thought Trump would be in big trouble this year, that helps reduce the damage a little.
I'm green on Biden, Warren and the long-odds long shots. Am red on Harris, Sanders and Buttegieg. Sanders makes me nervous, but still doubt he will be able to attract support as other candidates drop out.
If you look at the betting shape of the Tory contest it follows if the polling is sustained (Hey it might not be !) then Biden would be ~ 1.5 or so, Sanders 6.0 and everyone else over 10.0. To be clear on Hayley I think it's a lay at 48 still.
Mayor Pete is way too short, it's nuts. Quite aside from his modest polling, he's on virtually 0% amongst black voters and doesn't seem to be fixing that. Unless he does so it's a fatal flaw in his campaign.
Warren is mystifyingly long. She's polling basically the same as Harris both nationally and in early states. Warren should maybe be a bit longer than her given Harris has attractive fundamentals, but not much longer.
Yes, I am a bit mystified by Warren's price. I am quite green on her.
This sentence from Baker's foreword is the sort of thing that gives grammar nazis a bad name: The new Prime Minister will have around three months further to prepare the United Kingdom to leave the European Union.
Either split the bloody infinitive or recast the whole sentence: anything but that monstrosity.
Last Peterborough election Labour took 48% , the Tories 46%.
How many of those voters will move to the BP.
Labour are likely to lose more to the Lib Dems and Greens than to the BP. The Tories say lose half to the BP.
With the current climate the BP are favourites but I don’t think it’s a shoe in. It could be that Labour hold just enough votes to scrape over the line . They could end up winning with just 30% of the vote .
Yes. Remarkably, Labour's only hope lies in the Tory vote exceeding expectations. The more they keep, the nearer the winning post. Like you, I see a Brexit win. But probably 70% chance rather than a certainty.
One thing that might help us out of this whole fucking disaster is if both sides stop with the broad generalisations they use to denigrate their evil opponents, and stop throwing insults generated by trying to interpret Brexit from historical events and eras. PB is one of the worst places for it, full of armchair warriors and experts. The place is barely fucking habitable at the minute.
We appreciate your rising above it all and for the meta-comment.
From what you write it's probably best that you stay off PB for the foreseeable future.
It will be a huge loss but we'll manage I'm sure.
Obviously, if you left the place would fold. Good work fella!
Johnson or Corbyn, that will be a tough choice for many millions. I wonder which way they will break?
It's an important question because the answer will determine which of two starkly different futures lie ahead.
Large state tax & spend, inside the European Union, or Small deregulated state, market primacy, outside the European Union.
I can't call it.
Who will deliver a small, deregulated state? The Conservatives have already given us "large state tax & spend" but I am not sure Jeremy Corbyn would have tax cuts as his first priority.
Is there some form of flypast scheduled today in the London area for the commemorations? I think I heard several planes from the direction of Duxford (I often get to see them, but not today).
Last Peterborough election Labour took 48% , the Tories 46%.
How many of those voters will move to the BP.
Labour are likely to lose more to the Lib Dems and Greens than to the BP. The Tories say lose half to the BP.
With the current climate the BP are favourites but I don’t think it’s a shoe in. It could be that Labour hold just enough votes to scrape over the line . They could end up winning with just 30% of the vote .
Yes. Remarkably, Labour's only hope lies in the Tory vote exceeding expectations. The more they keep, the nearer the winning post. Like you, I see a Brexit win. But probably 70% chance rather than a certainty.
I think the media have looked at the EU elections with the BP on 38% and seen that as their likely figure but it’s not as straightforward as that . I think it depends how much Lib Dems, the BP and the Greens gain from Labour. If Labour minimize their losses to other parties to max 18% leaving them on 30% there could be a shock .
Is there some form of flypast scheduled today in the London area for the commemorations? I think I heard several planes from the direction of Duxford (I often get to see them, but not today).
They are heading for Portsmouth and then Normandy.
On topic and a bit random, but if there were an election in the not too distant future, do we think Stephen Lloyd would hold on to Eastbourne as an independent?
Broxtowe looks like an interesting fight between Soubry, Tories and Labour also.
I may be biased but IMO Soubry's personal vote is small - she specialises in taking people on at a very personal level, which onlookers enjoy more than the targets. She is liked for her undoubted courage on social issues by people who won't actually vote for her (hardcore Labour Guardianstas).
She's disliked by so many people. Very acerbic, especially when she has been at the bottle.
Sounds like half of PB; if the description is accurate, I'm surprised she's not more popular here.
I don’t think people in England have the faintest idea of the monsters that the Union has created and sustained in Ireland and Scotland.
The monsters in Scotland are Scots. What has the union or England got to do with it? Is this what politics has come to north of the border? Those are bad people, that is a bad thing, it rained yesterday: it must be England's fault. This is what makes it too easy to dismiss genuine complaints.
Och, no need now that lot have buggered off to TBP.
A couple of angry old people shouting nonsense in the street (the evidence in said video) is probably more evidence of the failings of the Scottish health and social care system than representing 'average unionists' in Scotland .Unless you believe the majority of Scots think the same?
One thing that might help us out of this whole fucking disaster is if both sides stop with the broad generalisations they use to denigrate their evil opponents, and stop throwing insults generated by trying to interpret Brexit from historical events and eras. PB is one of the worst places for it, full of armchair warriors and experts. The place is barely fucking habitable at the minute.
We appreciate your rising above it all and for the meta-comment.
From what you write it's probably best that you stay off PB for the foreseeable future.
It will be a huge loss but we'll manage I'm sure.
Obviously, if you left the place would fold. Good work fella!
I doubt it but what's the point of commenting how useless all the comments are?
You think the place is dreadful. Excellent delighted to hear it. But you have two options as I see it. Either stay and improve the level of debate here, or, to use your own vernacular, fuck off.
I don’t think people in England have the faintest idea of the monsters that the Union has created and sustained in Ireland and Scotland.
The monsters in Scotland are Scots. What has the union or England got to do with it? Is this what politics has come to north of the border? Those are bad people, that is a bad thing, it rained yesterday: it must be England's fault. This is what makes it too easy to dismiss genuine complaints.
I'd be hugely surprised if the folk in the clip from Malc don't identify primarily as British. The clue's in the flag.
As far as the Tory Party goes I don't think the deal matters. That is not in the leader's hands. What matters is having the ability to win the next election. With someone civilised and if Corbyn stays in place I'd say they're in with a chance. With Boris or any of the rest of them them I'd say they're doomed
Johnson or Corbyn, that will be a tough choice for many millions. I wonder which way they will break?
It's an important question because the answer will determine which of two starkly different futures lie ahead.
Large state tax & spend, inside the European Union, or Small deregulated state, market primacy, outside the European Union.
I can't call it.
Two racist fantasists battling it out to lead our country. I suspect Johnson wins because he has the Union Jack and that will help him considerably in England. Corbyn's anti-Semitism, opposition to the EU and chronicled support for anti-UK/US/Israeli organisations and regimes alienates more groupings than Johnson's negatives.
To paraphrase, Johnson is the worst possible party leader and PM.
Apart from all the others.
I suppose either Churchill or Oscar Wilde said the original of that.
Amazing the stuff those two came out with. They never met, as far as I know, but imagine if they had - talk about having a conversation!
Probably something along the lines of:
Wilde: Sir, you are drunk! Churchill: Sir, you are a homosexual! Wilde: If you were my husband, I would take it. Churchill: You will, Oscar, you will ...
Early indications of an increased turnout in the Danish general election but don't be fooled - it's Grundlovsdag (Constitution Day) so a limited public holiday. From recollection, government agencies and council offices are closed as are many shops but it's not uniformly observed in the private sector.
As we armchair warriors know, it celebrates the constitution signed by Frederik VII in 1849 establishing the constitutional monarchy. It's also the anniversary of the day women first got the vote in Denmark (1915) as well as being Father's Day.
I don’t think people in England have the faintest idea of the monsters that the Union has created and sustained in Ireland and Scotland.
The monsters in Scotland are Scots. What has the union or England got to do with it? Is this what politics has come to north of the border? Those are bad people, that is a bad thing, it rained yesterday: it must be England's fault. This is what makes it too easy to dismiss genuine complaints.
I'd be hugely surprised if the folk in the clip from Malc don't identify primarily as British. The clue's in the flag.
They'd also identify as Scots. The clue is in the accent and no doubt in which team they support in home internationals.
Is there some form of flypast scheduled today in the London area for the commemorations? I think I heard several planes from the direction of Duxford (I often get to see them, but not today).
They are heading for Portsmouth and then Normandy.
One thing that might help us out of this whole fucking disaster is if both sides stop with the broad generalisations they use to denigrate their evil opponents, and stop throwing insults generated by trying to interpret Brexit from historical events and eras. PB is one of the worst places for it, full of armchair warriors and experts. The place is barely fucking habitable at the minute.
That is correct.
For too many people, being pro- or anti-Brexit, or pro- or anti-unionist (in Scotland and Northern Ireland) is simply a proxy for whether you are a good person or a bad person.
There is a consistent picture in the Tory wannabes, only Rory Stewart is a Conservative and the only one who speaks human.
The others are variations on a theme of breakdown. With Boris it seems only a matter of time before the party hits the rocks, Raab is a Poundland Francis Urquhart, Gove, Murdoch's London representative, Leadsom tied up in hedge fund greed, Hunt, Harper and Hancock as dull as blotting paper, Javid and McVey vacuous biographies in search of a job,
Only Stewart can possibly work, but the Tories seem determined to avoid the only solution to their haemorrhaging donors and geriatric membership.
On topic and a bit random, but if there were an election in the not too distant future, do we think Stephen Lloyd would hold on to Eastbourne as an independent?
Broxtowe looks like an interesting fight between Soubry, Tories and Labour also.
I may be biased but IMO Soubry's personal vote is small - she specialises in taking people on at a very personal level, which onlookers enjoy more than the targets. She is liked for her undoubted courage on social issues by people who won't actually vote for her (hardcore Labour Guardianstas).
She's disliked by so many people. Very acerbic, especially when she has been at the bottle.
Sounds like half of PB; if the description is accurate, I'm surprised she's not more popular here.
I quite like her. Although I see no future as leader of Small Change UK
I don’t think people in England have the faintest idea of the monsters that the Union has created and sustained in Ireland and Scotland.
The monsters in Scotland are Scots. What has the union or England got to do with it? Is this what politics has come to north of the border? Those are bad people, that is a bad thing, it rained yesterday: it must be England's fault. This is what makes it too easy to dismiss genuine complaints.
I'd be hugely surprised if the folk in the clip from Malc don't identify primarily as British. The clue's in the flag.
They'd also identify as Scots. The clue is in the accent and no doubt in which team they support in home internationals.
I see you body swerved 'primarily'. Probably wise.
One thing that might help us out of this whole fucking disaster is if both sides stop with the broad generalisations they use to denigrate their evil opponents, and stop throwing insults generated by trying to interpret Brexit from historical events and eras. PB is one of the worst places for it, full of armchair warriors and experts. The place is barely fucking habitable at the minute.
We appreciate your rising above it all and for the meta-comment.
From what you write it's probably best that you stay off PB for the foreseeable future.
It will be a huge loss but we'll manage I'm sure.
Obviously, if you left the place would fold. Good work fella!
I doubt it but what's the point of commenting how useless all the comments are?
You think the place is dreadful. Excellent delighted to hear it. But you have two options as I see it. Either stay and improve the level of debate here, or, to use your own vernacular, fuck off.
You're right, this place has lost it's relevance and disappeared up it's own arse. It probably is time to move on. It's turned into a smugfest from all sides.
I don’t think people in England have the faintest idea of the monsters that the Union has created and sustained in Ireland and Scotland.
The monsters in Scotland are Scots. What has the union or England got to do with it? Is this what politics has come to north of the border? Those are bad people, that is a bad thing, it rained yesterday: it must be England's fault. This is what makes it too easy to dismiss genuine complaints.
I'd be hugely surprised if the folk in the clip from Malc don't identify primarily as British. The clue's in the flag.
They'd also identify as Scots. The clue is in the accent and no doubt in which team they support in home internationals.
So, nasty Unionists shouting homophobic, racist abuse and threatening to petrol bomb and murder people, in broad daylight, in front of police officers, is nothing whatsoever to do with the Union?
Is there some form of flypast scheduled today in the London area for the commemorations? I think I heard several planes from the direction of Duxford (I often get to see them, but not today).
It's 1245 at Portsmouth (Southsea). They'll be leaving Essex about now for the marshalling area South of the IOW
Which is why Mark Carney made a statement and then moved on interest rates.
Such forecasts are always made ceteris paribus and Carney moved to ensure that the situation didn't remain paribus for long.
That's categorically not true. Ceteris Paribus is used in economic modelling to measure the impact of one variable without adjusting others but the governments modelling wasn't so simplistic. It included the levers of the state and said there would be tax rises and a necessary governmental tightening of the economy if there was a vote.
If the governmental report said instead "in the case of a vote for Brexit there will be interest rate cuts to stimulate the economy resulting in record employment and no recession" instead of "tax rises, recession and unemployment" which was forecast then that would have had a very different impact.
As I've said the economic forecasts he was given were for a central case. No decision tree.
Except they weren't a central case.
A loosening of interest rates is what anyone sane would see to be the central response, not a tightening of fiscal policy. Decisions were accounted for but clearly the wrong decisions, the right ones were ignored.
As far as the Tory Party goes I don't think the deal matters. That is not in the leader's hands. What matters is having the ability to win the next election. With someone civilised and if Corbyn stays in place I'd say they're in with a chance. With Boris or any of the rest of them them I'd say they're doomed
Johnson or Corbyn, that will be a tough choice for many millions. I wonder which way they will break?
It's an important question because the answer will determine which of two starkly different futures lie ahead.
Large state tax & spend, inside the European Union, or Small deregulated state, market primacy, outside the European Union.
I can't call it.
Two racist fantasists battling it out to lead our country. I suspect Johnson wins because he has the Union Jack and that will help him considerably in England. Corbyn's anti-Semitism, opposition to the EU and chronicled support for anti-UK/US/Israeli organisations and regimes alienates more groupings than Johnson's negatives.
Boris's back catalogue of race-baiting will negate what has been CCHQ's best attack line against Corbyn: anti-semitism. Either they will have to stop using it or the whole thing will descend into who said what about Jews/Blacks/Muslims. That is why I've always been convinced Tory MPs will not vote for Boris.
(Tbh I am wavering a little on that. Just a tiny bit. I deposited some money to cover my green Hunt position but then did not place the bet, which triggered Betfair to send me an email about the dangers of compulsive gambling.)
Is there some form of flypast scheduled today in the London area for the commemorations? I think I heard several planes from the direction of Duxford (I often get to see them, but not today).
They are heading for Portsmouth and then Normandy.
Thanks.
After Portsmouth the flypast is dispersing N and E. It's the cruise ship and accompanying warship that's going to Normandy, plus the Dakotas direct from Duxford
Last Peterborough election Labour took 48% , the Tories 46%.
How many of those voters will move to the BP.
Labour are likely to lose more to the Lib Dems and Greens than to the BP. The Tories say lose half to the BP.
With the current climate the BP are favourites but I don’t think it’s a shoe in. It could be that Labour hold just enough votes to scrape over the line . They could end up winning with just 30% of the vote .
Peterborough is a very ethnic city. If community leaders tell their communities to vote and vote Labour, they could still win.
Last Peterborough election Labour took 48% , the Tories 46%.
How many of those voters will move to the BP.
Labour are likely to lose more to the Lib Dems and Greens than to the BP. The Tories say lose half to the BP.
With the current climate the BP are favourites but I don’t think it’s a shoe in. It could be that Labour hold just enough votes to scrape over the line . They could end up winning with just 30% of the vote .
Peterborough is a very ethnic city. If community leaders tell their communities to vote and vote Labour, they could still win.
I think about 20% of voters are from ethnic minorities. That's important, but not decisive.
Who will deliver a small, deregulated state? The Conservatives have already given us "large state tax & spend" but I am not sure Jeremy Corbyn would have tax cuts as his first priority.
If the Cons win the election under Johnson, what follows will be a Hard Brexit and then the only viable Tory policy response to the challenges that being detached from Europe will bring, i.e. a radical trimming down of the state - low taxes, deregulation, public spending cuts, all of that monkey business.
I don’t think people in England have the faintest idea of the monsters that the Union has created and sustained in Ireland and Scotland.
The monsters in Scotland are Scots. What has the union or England got to do with it? Is this what politics has come to north of the border? Those are bad people, that is a bad thing, it rained yesterday: it must be England's fault. This is what makes it too easy to dismiss genuine complaints.
I'd be hugely surprised if the folk in the clip from Malc don't identify primarily as British. The clue's in the flag.
They'd also identify as Scots. The clue is in the accent and no doubt in which team they support in home internationals.
So, nasty Unionists shouting homophobic, racist abuse and threatening to petrol bomb and murder people, in broad daylight, in front of police officers, is nothing whatsoever to do with the Union?
Their age of that particular lot is interesting too though, historically. 1970s skinheads and football hooligans in the bodies of doddery old folk.
One thing that might help us out of this whole fucking disaster is if both sides stop with the broad generalisations they use to denigrate their evil opponents, and stop throwing insults generated by trying to interpret Brexit from historical events and eras. PB is one of the worst places for it, full of armchair warriors and experts. The place is barely fucking habitable at the minute.
That is correct.
For too many people, being pro- or anti-Brexit, or pro- or anti-unionist (in Scotland and Northern Ireland) is simply a proxy for whether you are a good person or a bad person.
Thank goodness for olympian dudes like yourself who are far above thinking opponents of the Union, such as Sinn Fein, are automatically bad people.
Is there some form of flypast scheduled today in the London area for the commemorations? I think I heard several planes from the direction of Duxford (I often get to see them, but not today).
They are heading for Portsmouth and then Normandy.
Thanks.
After Portsmouth the flypast is dispersing N and E. It's the cruise ship and accompanying warship that's going to Normandy, plus the Dakotas direct from Duxford
And thanks to you, too. I often get to see them from my home, but the cloud was a little too low today. I think I saw a Dakota flying over on Mon or Tues. Then again, IANAE at plane identification...
One of the advantages of living here is that I often see planes from Duxford flying over A Spitfire seems to like flying over the village repeatedly - to the extent I wonder if the pilot knows someone who lives here!
There is a consistent picture in the Tory wannabes, only Rory Stewart is a Conservative and the only one who speaks human.
The others are variations on a theme of breakdown. With Boris it seems only a matter of time before the party hits the rocks, Raab is a Poundland Francis Urquhart, Gove, Murdoch's London representative, Leadsom tied up in hedge fund greed, Hunt, Harper and Hancock as dull as blotting paper, Javid and McVey vacuous biographies in search of a job,
Only Stewart can possibly work, but the Tories seem determined to avoid the only solution to their haemorrhaging donors and geriatric membership.
Good summary.
I like Rory. I think he’d do well for the SCons, or at least relatively well.
Fortunately, he hasn’t got a hope in hell.
The others are pure SNP gold. Although I’m hoping for Boris or Gove, I’ve got to admit that the Poundland Francis Urquhart is growing on me.
One thing that might help us out of this whole fucking disaster is if both sides stop with the broad generalisations they use to denigrate their evil opponents, and stop throwing insults generated by trying to interpret Brexit from historical events and eras. PB is one of the worst places for it, full of armchair warriors and experts. The place is barely fucking habitable at the minute.
That is correct.
For too many people, being pro- or anti-Brexit, or pro- or anti-unionist (in Scotland and Northern Ireland) is simply a proxy for whether you are a good person or a bad person.
Thank goodness for olympian dudes like yourself who are far above thinking opponents of the Union, such as Sinn Fein, are automatically bad people.
I take the view that voting for murderers is a bad thing but YMMV.
As we are having our national election today in Denmark I thought I would chip in with a comment
Lars Løkke has run a good campaign and Venstre (centre right) will improve on their performance in 2015 - The Social Democrats and Mette Frederiksen have done a good job of using "time for a change" without providing specifics but they will end up with fewer seats in the Folketing than 2015.
The Dansk Folkeparti will see their vote share halved and thus despite the Social Democrats not performing that well Mette Frederiksen is almost certain to end up PM but there is a lot of disagreement on the left - especially the Radikale being firm on not supporting the "new paradigm" policy on immigration (the social democrats have won back a lot of DF voters with tough talk on this issue).
The upshot is that Lars Løkke's offer of a grand coalition of Venstre and SD should not be excluded. Important to remember that in Danish politics party names are usually the opposite to the party policy so Radikale Venstre (radical left) are arch-centrists, Venstre (left) is right and Enhedslisten (Unity List) are the communists who split every few years.
Things to look out for are the numbers for more extremist politics on the left - Socialistike Folkeparti, Enhedslisten, Alternativet as it may indicate how easy/hard it will be for the red bloc to work well together - Mette F will want to go it alone if at all possible- she is not a fan of some of the more Corbynite thinking doing the rounds among Nick Palmer's old buddies on the far left.
Two racist fantasists battling it out to lead our country. I suspect Johnson wins because he has the Union Jack and that will help him considerably in England. Corbyn's anti-Semitism, opposition to the EU and chronicled support for anti-UK/US/Israeli organisations and regimes alienates more groupings than Johnson's negatives.
Well I'm not as down on Jez as you are. Having said that, it's the policy direction - redistribution - that I like, not so much the man.
One point though - him being anti EU. Whether he personally is or not, if the Labour policy at the GE is Ref/Remain (as I am sure it will be) then IMO that should bring the Remainers over. Not all of them, of course, but a hell of a lot.
One thing that might help us out of this whole fucking disaster is if both sides stop with the broad generalisations they use to denigrate their evil opponents, and stop throwing insults generated by trying to interpret Brexit from historical events and eras. PB is one of the worst places for it, full of armchair warriors and experts. The place is barely fucking habitable at the minute.
We appreciate your rising above it all and for the meta-comment.
From what you write it's probably best that you stay off PB for the foreseeable future.
It will be a huge loss but we'll manage I'm sure.
Obviously, if you left the place would fold. Good work fella!
I doubt it but what's the point of commenting how useless all the comments are?
You think the place is dreadful. Excellent delighted to hear it. But you have two options as I see it. Either stay and improve the level of debate here, or, to use your own vernacular, fuck off.
You're right, this place has lost it's relevance and disappeared up it's own arse. It probably is time to move on. It's turned into a smugfest from all sides.
Some of us are still talking about betting on politics. The problem for everyone, and I suppose the opportunity, is distinguishing what we want to happen from what we think will happen. Obviously, my own analysis is wholly objective.
Is there some form of flypast scheduled today in the London area for the commemorations? I think I heard several planes from the direction of Duxford (I often get to see them, but not today).
They are heading for Portsmouth and then Normandy.
Thanks.
After Portsmouth the flypast is dispersing N and E. It's the cruise ship and accompanying warship that's going to Normandy, plus the Dakotas direct from Duxford
And thanks to you, too. I often get to see them from my home, but the cloud was a little too low today. I think I saw a Dakota flying over on Mon or Tues. Then again, IANAE at plane identification...
One of the advantages of living here is that I often see planes from Duxford flying over A Spitfire seems to like flying over the village repeatedly - to the extent I wonder if the pilot knows someone who lives here!
I am about to get on a solent ferry and expect it to go overhead
It's still a fantasy in the form peddled by Eurosceptics of a single army controlled by the Commission, and as @Dura_Ace will tall you, further defence integration will happen anyway.
Assuming Brexit does happen, which isn't looking the sure thing it once was, then I think the UK will end up as a non-member with an European Defence Agency opt in like Norway, Switzerland and Serbia.
As in much else, the UK will be participating but not directly influencing.
As far as the Tory Party goes I don't think the deal matters. That is not in the leader's hands. What matters is having the ability to win the next election. With someone civilised and if Corbyn stays in place I'd say they're in with a chance. With Boris or any of the rest of them them I'd say they're doomed
Johnson or Corbyn, that will be a tough choice for many millions. I wonder which way they will break?
It's an important question because the answer will determine which of two starkly different futures lie ahead.
Large state tax & spend, inside the European Union, or Small deregulated state, market primacy, outside the European Union.
I can't call it.
Two racist fantasists battling it out to lead our country. I suspect Johnson wins because he has the Union Jack and that will help him considerably in England. Corbyn's anti-Semitism, opposition to the EU and chronicled support for anti-UK/US/Israeli organisations and regimes alienates more groupings than Johnson's negatives.
Boris's back catalogue of race-baiting will negate what has been CCHQ's best attack line against Corbyn: anti-semitism. Either they will have to stop using it or the whole thing will descend into who said what about Jews/Blacks/Muslims. That is why I've always been convinced Tory MPs will not vote for Boris.
(Tbh I am wavering a little on that. Just a tiny bit. I deposited some money to cover my green Hunt position but then did not place the bet, which triggered Betfair to send me an email about the dangers of compulsive gambling.)
Considering Boris Johnson's direct male line of ancestors was Turkish and Muslim, I would be surprised if he were actually racist rather than politically opportunistic.
Wilde: Sir, you are drunk! Churchill: Sir, you are a homosexual! Wilde: If you were my husband, I would take it. Churchill: You will, Oscar, you will ...
As the rest of the table concentrated studiously on eating up.
As far as the Tory Party goes I don't think the deal matters. That is not in the leader's hands. What matters is having the ability to win the next election. With someone civilised and if Corbyn stays in place I'd say they're in with a chance. With Boris or any of the rest of them them I'd say they're doomed
Johnson or Corbyn, that will be a tough choice for many millions. I wonder which way they will break?
It's an important question because the answer will determine which of two starkly different futures lie ahead.
Large state tax & spend, inside the European Union, or Small deregulated state, market primacy, outside the European Union.
I can't call it.
Two racist fantasists battling it out to lead our country. I suspect Johnson wins because he has the Union Jack and that will help him considerably in England. Corbyn's anti-Semitism, opposition to the EU and chronicled support for anti-UK/US/Israeli organisations and regimes alienates more groupings than Johnson's negatives.
Boris's back catalogue of race-baiting will negate what has been CCHQ's best attack line against Corbyn: anti-semitism. Either they will have to stop using it or the whole thing will descend into who said what about Jews/Blacks/Muslims. That is why I've always been convinced Tory MPs will not vote for Boris.
(Tbh I am wavering a little on that. Just a tiny bit. I deposited some money to cover my green Hunt position but then did not place the bet, which triggered Betfair to send me an email about the dangers of compulsive gambling.)
I got one based on my unusually large Andrea-Leadsom-related deposits yesterday.
So Winston envied Wilde's capacity of 3 bottles of brandy a day.
I often think these tales of the alcohol consumption of 'hellraisers' are mythical, but if not - and considering WC's own habits in that area - the conversation between the two of them would probably in practice have been rather like the sort that one overhears in a Weatherspoons as closing time approaches.
"As usual many were mainly there to attack Israel"
"Mr Corbyn described the gathering as "the whole wonderful mosaic of diversity and inclusion (except Jews, obviously)"
The Times today.
Billionaire Tax avoider owned paper dissing Corbyn
Change is coming
Not difficult to diss Mr Thicky whether you are a billionaire owned newspaper or a downtrodden worker. Corbyn is a moron, and his hopeless childish approach to politics is allowing the extreme right a free kick at our economy and institutions. Change is probably coming and it is wearing brogues in place of jackboots and tweed jackets in place of blackshirts. Corbyn's complete lack of a coherent opposition strategy is encouraging this to happen, and it is those that the idiot claims to represent that will suffer most.
As far as the Tory Party goes I don't think the deal matters. That is not in the leader's hands. What matters is having the ability to win the next election. With someone civilised and if Corbyn stays in place I'd say they're in with a chance. With Boris or any of the rest of them them I'd say they're doomed
Johnson or Corbyn, that will be a tough choice for many millions. I wonder which way they will break?
It's an important question because the answer will determine which of two starkly different futures lie ahead.
Large state tax & spend, inside the European Union, or Small deregulated state, market primacy, outside the European Union.
I can't call it.
Two racist fantasists battling it out to lead our country. I suspect Johnson wins because he has the Union Jack and that will help him considerably in England. Corbyn's anti-Semitism, opposition to the EU and chronicled support for anti-UK/US/Israeli organisations and regimes alienates more groupings than Johnson's negatives.
Boris's back catalogue of race-baiting will negate what has been CCHQ's best attack line against Corbyn: anti-semitism. Either they will have to stop using it or the whole thing will descend into who said what about Jews/Blacks/Muslims. That is why I've always been convinced Tory MPs will not vote for Boris.
(Tbh I am wavering a little on that. Just a tiny bit. I deposited some money to cover my green Hunt position but then did not place the bet, which triggered Betfair to send me an email about the dangers of compulsive gambling.)
Considering Boris Johnson's direct male line of ancestors was Turkish and Muslim, I would be surprised if he were actually racist rather than politically opportunistic.
Likewise Corbyn no doubt but splitting hairs on anti-Zionism or whether some of the bankers in the antisemitic mural were Christians did not get Jezza very far.
And it is not even as if CCHQ would be able to fall back on Corbyn being scruffy and unkempt. Now it is Boris who must take Cameron's mum's advice.
The politician, who was elected in 2007 and again in 2017, believes he was deliberately targeted because of his work on local issues.
But he declared: “I will continue stand up for my community. Some people don’t like what I’m doing because they are not law-abiding citizens
Love the way Scots Nats talk of the Union as though it is something invented in England. The Scots have been massively overrepresented in the history of the Union and the British Empire. The Empire was largely constructed by Scots. It was very often army boots worn by Scots that crushed the Irish. To try and equate the oppression in Ireland with an imaginary oppression in Scotland is one of the biggest lies perpetrated by Scottish Nationalists.. Scottish Nationalists, English Nationalists; two cheeks of the same very smelly arse.
...the conversation between the two of them would probably in practice have been a little like one overhears in a Weatherspoons as closing time approaches.
- We don't owe them nothing! - That Esther McVey says we can pay half the money for a no deal transition. - She's a Remoaner! Look at this beermat!
Last Peterborough election Labour took 48% , the Tories 46%.
How many of those voters will move to the BP.
Labour are likely to lose more to the Lib Dems and Greens than to the BP. The Tories say lose half to the BP.
With the current climate the BP are favourites but I don’t think it’s a shoe in. It could be that Labour hold just enough votes to scrape over the line . They could end up winning with just 30% of the vote .
Peterborough is a very ethnic city. If community leaders tell their communities to vote and vote Labour, they could still win.
I think about 20% of voters are from ethnic minorities. That's important, but not decisive.
Are you talking about the council area? The Peterborough constituency covers the central wards so has a much higher percentage than the city authority at large. And of course big changes since the last census.
Last Peterborough election Labour took 48% , the Tories 46%.
How many of those voters will move to the BP.
Labour are likely to lose more to the Lib Dems and Greens than to the BP. The Tories say lose half to the BP.
With the current climate the BP are favourites but I don’t think it’s a shoe in. It could be that Labour hold just enough votes to scrape over the line . They could end up winning with just 30% of the vote .
Peterborough is a very ethnic city. If community leaders tell their communities to vote and vote Labour, they could still win.
I think about 20% of voters are from ethnic minorities. That's important, but not decisive.
Are you talking about the council area? The Peterborough constituency covers the central wards so has a much higher percentage than the city authority at large. And of course big changes since the last census.
As far as the Tory Party goes I don't think the deal matters. That is not in the leader's hands. What matters is having the ability to win the next election. With someone civilised and if Corbyn stays in place I'd say they're in with a chance. With Boris or any of the rest of them them I'd say they're doomed
Johnson or Corbyn, that will be a tough choice for many millions. I wonder which way they will break?
It's an important question because the answer will determine which of two starkly different futures lie ahead.
Large state tax & spend, inside the European Union, or Small deregulated state, market primacy, outside the European Union.
I can't call it.
Two racist fantasists battling it out to lead our country. I suspect Johnson wins because he has the Union Jack and that will help him considerably in England. Corbyn's anti-Semitism, opposition to the EU and chronicled support for anti-UK/US/Israeli organisations and regimes alienates more groupings than Johnson's negatives.
Boris's back catalogue of race-baiting will negate what has been CCHQ's best attack line against Corbyn: anti-semitism. Either they will have to stop using it or the whole thing will descend into who said what about Jews/Blacks/Muslims. That is why I've always been convinced Tory MPs will not vote for Boris.
(Tbh I am wavering a little on that. Just a tiny bit. I deposited some money to cover my green Hunt position but then did not place the bet, which triggered Betfair to send me an email about the dangers of compulsive gambling.)
I got one based on my unusually large Andrea-Leadsom-related deposits yesterday.
Did you see in Sunday's Post that one firm has banned Steve Palmer despite his having made six figures on golf last year? Admittedly, his punting on other sport makes Harry Findlay look controlled.
There is a consistent picture in the Tory wannabes, only Rory Stewart is a Conservative and the only one who speaks human.
The others are variations on a theme of breakdown. With Boris it seems only a matter of time before the party hits the rocks, Raab is a Poundland Francis Urquhart, Gove, Murdoch's London representative, Leadsom tied up in hedge fund greed, Hunt, Harper and Hancock as dull as blotting paper, Javid and McVey vacuous biographies in search of a job,
Only Stewart can possibly work, but the Tories seem determined to avoid the only solution to their haemorrhaging donors and geriatric membership.
Good summary.
I like Rory. I think he’d do well for the SCons, or at least relatively well.
Fortunately, he hasn’t got a hope in hell.
The others are pure SNP gold. Although I’m hoping for Boris or Gove, I’ve got to admit that the Poundland Francis Urquhart is growing on me.
Agree with all that about how fine and decent Rory Stewart is. The problem facing electors, both MPs and members, is there is a long track record of decent people being unable to win elections or stand the pace. Kinnock, Ed Miliband, Hague, Home, Callaghan and now Mrs May were or are decent centrists doing their best, and in different ways they are all admirable. And that's without starting on Howard or Duncan Smith. If you close your eyes and think about the current state of the UK voters, could Rory win an election. No. This is very much to his credit but in trying to predict the future the morality of decent people does not get a look in. He won't be leader.
One thing that might help us out of this whole fucking disaster is if both sides stop with the broad generalisations they use to denigrate their evil opponents, and stop throwing insults generated by trying to interpret Brexit from historical events and eras. PB is one of the worst places for it, full of armchair warriors and experts. The place is barely fucking habitable at the minute.
We appreciate your rising above it all and for the meta-comment.
From what you write it's probably best that you stay off PB for the foreseeable future.
It will be a huge loss but we'll manage I'm sure.
Obviously, if you left the place would fold. Good work fella!
I doubt it but what's the point of commenting how useless all the comments are?
You think the place is dreadful. Excellent delighted to hear it. But you have two options as I see it. Either stay and improve the level of debate here, or, to use your own vernacular, fuck off.
The food is so terrible and the portions so small.
Last Peterborough election Labour took 48% , the Tories 46%.
How many of those voters will move to the BP.
Labour are likely to lose more to the Lib Dems and Greens than to the BP. The Tories say lose half to the BP.
With the current climate the BP are favourites but I don’t think it’s a shoe in. It could be that Labour hold just enough votes to scrape over the line . They could end up winning with just 30% of the vote .
Peterborough is a very ethnic city. If community leaders tell their communities to vote and vote Labour, they could still win.
I think about 20% of voters are from ethnic minorities. That's important, but not decisive.
Are you talking about the council area? The Peterborough constituency covers the central wards so has a much higher percentage than the city authority at large. And of course big changes since the last census.
2011 Census for the constituency:
White: English/Welsh/Scottish/Northern Irish/British - 64% White: Irish - 1% White: Gypsy or Irish Traveller - 0% White: Other White - 12% Mixed/multiple ethnic groups: White and Black Caribbean - 1% Mixed/multiple ethnic groups: White and Black African - 0% Mixed/multiple ethnic groups: White and Asian - 1% Mixed/multiple ethnic groups: Other Mixed - 1% Asian/Asian British: Indian - 3% Asian/Asian British: Pakistani - 10% Asian/Asian British: Bangladeshi - 0% Asian/Asian British: Chinese - 0% Asian/Asian British: Other Asian - 3% Black/African/Caribbean/Black British: African - 1% Black/African/Caribbean/Black British: Caribbean - 1% Black/African/Caribbean/Black British: Other Black - 0% Other Arab - 0% Other Any other ethnic group - 1%
The first professional though biased assessment of the Peterborough situation that I've seen (there's a Waughzone report too but that's very anecdotal - basically "I've seen a lot of Brexit supporters"). This one also sounds like 1. Brexit 2. Labour, though.
Have I dozed off and missed the Labour leadership election?
Short-Trousers now at the helm!
It's not been in the papers much but apparently all sorts of important types and a plane that flew over Josias Jessop are on the south coast for, erm, reasons. Probably a by-election.
Last Peterborough election Labour took 48% , the Tories 46%.
How many of those voters will move to the BP.
Labour are likely to lose more to the Lib Dems and Greens than to the BP. The Tories say lose half to the BP.
With the current climate the BP are favourites but I don’t think it’s a shoe in. It could be that Labour hold just enough votes to scrape over the line . They could end up winning with just 30% of the vote .
Peterborough is a very ethnic city. If community leaders tell their communities to vote and vote Labour, they could still win.
I think about 20% of voters are from ethnic minorities. That's important, but not decisive.
Are you talking about the council area? The Peterborough constituency covers the central wards so has a much higher percentage than the city authority at large. And of course big changes since the last census.
2011 Census for the constituency:
White: English/Welsh/Scottish/Northern Irish/British - 64% White: Irish - 1% White: Gypsy or Irish Traveller - 0% White: Other White - 12% Mixed/multiple ethnic groups: White and Black Caribbean - 1% Mixed/multiple ethnic groups: White and Black African - 0% Mixed/multiple ethnic groups: White and Asian - 1% Mixed/multiple ethnic groups: Other Mixed - 1% Asian/Asian British: Indian - 3% Asian/Asian British: Pakistani - 10% Asian/Asian British: Bangladeshi - 0% Asian/Asian British: Chinese - 0% Asian/Asian British: Other Asian - 3% Black/African/Caribbean/Black British: African - 1% Black/African/Caribbean/Black British: Caribbean - 1% Black/African/Caribbean/Black British: Other Black - 0% Other Arab - 0% Other Any other ethnic group - 1%
As far as the Tory Party goes I don't think the deal matters. That is not in the leader's hands. What matters is having the ability to win the next election. With someone civilised and if Corbyn stays in place I'd say they're in with a chance. With Boris or any of the rest of them them I'd say they're doomed
Johnson or Corbyn, that will be a tough choice for many millions. I wonder which way they will break?
It's an important question because the answer will determine which of two starkly different futures lie ahead.
Large state tax & spend, inside the European Union, or Small deregulated state, market primacy, outside the European Union.
I can't call it.
Two racist fantasists battling it out to lead our country. I suspect Johnson wins because he has the Union Jack and that will help him considerably in England. Corbyn's anti-Semitism, opposition to the EU and chronicled support for anti-UK/US/Israeli organisations and regimes alienates more groupings than Johnson's negatives.
Boris's back catalogue of race-baiting will negate what has been CCHQ's best attack line against Corbyn: anti-semitism. Either they will have to stop using it or the whole thing will descend into who said what about Jews/Blacks/Muslims. That is why I've always been convinced Tory MPs will not vote for Boris.
(Tbh I am wavering a little on that. Just a tiny bit. I deposited some money to cover my green Hunt position but then did not place the bet, which triggered Betfair to send me an email about the dangers of compulsive gambling.)
I got one based on my unusually large Andrea-Leadsom-related deposits yesterday.
Did you see in Sunday's Post that one firm has banned Steve Palmer despite his having made six figures on golf last year? Admittedly, his punting on other sport makes Harry Findlay look controlled.
It's the tales of the prem footballers that make me laugh. Joey Barton has placed 1,214 wagers on the football or whatever, good indicator of a losing account...
Tomorrow's Peterborough by-election looks to me, at the moment, better than the Tory leadership race. The following are with Ladbrokes.
I'm on 10-1 for the Tories to poll under 10%. That has now come in to 7/2 and no longer represents much value to my mind
Someone posted earlier that they thought Labour might hold on. If so, you can get 4/1 on that. I wouldn't touch that unless it was 14/1. They are in dire straits nationally.
The BXP look an absolute shoo-in so 1/6 is probably fairly sure.
LibDems are 33/1 to win. That's value without a doubt, but it still doesn't tempt me as I really don't think they will do it. I'd need 50/1 for a fun flutter. A better bet might be their vote share falling in the 20-30% range at 11/4. You can also get 20/1 on them attaining over 30%. I can see the BXP polling high 30's and possibly over 40% (for which you can get 5/1). Therefore I could see both Lab and Tories squeezed to say 25% collectively. That leaves the LibDem share of 20-30% looking like a good call, with a potential flutter that they make 30%.
So in summary, there are good bets if you like tight odds, the pick for me being
LibDems 20-30% at 11/4.
Otherwise if you enjoy hitting the occasional win at good odds I reckon the two flutters that catch my eye are:
"As usual many were mainly there to attack Israel"
"Mr Corbyn described the gathering as "the whole wonderful mosaic of diversity and inclusion (except Jews, obviously)"
The Times today.
WTAF? He seriously said that?
No-one else has picked it up so I'd guess it was a joke by a Times writer.
No, it was a lie by TOPPING. The times article had the parenthetical outside the quotation marks. Still incredibly antisemitic of course, implying that anyone who protests Israel isn't a real Jew, but I've come to expect that from the right-wing press.
Also if you for one second thought that Corbyn might have actually said that, you've completely lost touch with reality.
There is a consistent picture in the Tory wannabes, only Rory Stewart is a Conservative and the only one who speaks human.
The others are variations on a theme of breakdown. With Boris it seems only a matter of time before the party hits the rocks, Raab is a Poundland Francis Urquhart, Gove, Murdoch's London representative, Leadsom tied up in hedge fund greed, Hunt, Harper and Hancock as dull as blotting paper, Javid and McVey vacuous biographies in search of a job,
Only Stewart can possibly work, but the Tories seem determined to avoid the only solution to their haemorrhaging donors and geriatric membership.
Good summary.
I like Rory. I think he’d do well for the SCons, or at least relatively well.
Fortunately, he hasn’t got a hope in hell.
The others are pure SNP gold. Although I’m hoping for Boris or Gove, I’ve got to admit that the Poundland Francis Urquhart is growing on me.
Agree with all that about how fine and decent Rory Stewart is. The problem facing electors, both MPs and members, is there is a long track record of decent people being unable to win elections or stand the pace. Kinnock, Ed Miliband, Hague, Home, Callaghan and now Mrs May were or are decent centrists doing their best, and in different ways they are all admirable. And that's without starting on Howard or Duncan Smith. If you close your eyes and think about the current state of the UK voters, could Rory win an election. No. This is very much to his credit but in trying to predict the future the morality of decent people does not get a look in. He won't be leader.
John Major (Edwin excepted) was probably the last nice, decent person to win a majority at a general election in 1992 and then he was trounced by the more charismatic Blair in 1997
Comments
Dig through Boris’ rich archive of quotes are you’ll find lots of evidence for this.
Which is of course what terrifies Ruth’s team.
https://twitter.com/cjayanetti/status/1136207479740784643
How many of those voters will move to the BP.
Labour are likely to lose more to the Lib Dems and Greens than to the BP. The Tories say lose half to the BP.
With the current climate the BP are favourites but I don’t think it’s a shoe in. It could be that Labour hold just enough votes to scrape over the line . They could end up winning with just 30% of the vote .
Apart from all the others.
From what you write it's probably best that you stay off PB for the foreseeable future.
It will be a huge loss but we'll manage I'm sure.
Either split the bloody infinitive or recast the whole sentence: anything but that monstrosity.
https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1136026099169812480
Och, no need now that lot have buggered off to TBP.
Amazing the stuff those two came out with. They never met, as far as I know, but imagine if they had - talk about having a conversation!
You think the place is dreadful. Excellent delighted to hear it. But you have two options as I see it. Either stay and improve the level of debate here, or, to use your own vernacular, fuck off.
Wilde: Sir, you are drunk!
Churchill: Sir, you are a homosexual!
Wilde: If you were my husband, I would take it.
Churchill: You will, Oscar, you will
...
As we armchair warriors know, it celebrates the constitution signed by Frederik VII in 1849 establishing the constitutional monarchy. It's also the anniversary of the day women first got the vote in Denmark (1915) as well as being Father's Day.
https://historynewsnetwork.org/article/156185
"As usual many were mainly there to attack Israel"
"Mr Corbyn described the gathering as "the whole wonderful mosaic of diversity and inclusion (except Jews, obviously)"
The Times today.
For too many people, being pro- or anti-Brexit, or pro- or anti-unionist (in Scotland and Northern Ireland) is simply a proxy for whether you are a good person or a bad person.
The others are variations on a theme of breakdown. With Boris it seems only a matter of time before the party hits the rocks, Raab is a Poundland Francis Urquhart, Gove, Murdoch's London representative, Leadsom tied up in hedge fund greed, Hunt, Harper and Hancock as dull as blotting paper, Javid and McVey vacuous biographies in search of a job,
Only Stewart can possibly work, but the Tories seem determined to avoid the only solution to their haemorrhaging donors and geriatric membership.
A loosening of interest rates is what anyone sane would see to be the central response, not a tightening of fiscal policy. Decisions were accounted for but clearly the wrong decisions, the right ones were ignored.
(Tbh I am wavering a little on that. Just a tiny bit. I deposited some money to cover my green Hunt position but then did not place the bet, which triggered Betfair to send me an email about the dangers of compulsive gambling.)
One of the advantages of living here is that I often see planes from Duxford flying over A Spitfire seems to like flying over the village repeatedly - to the extent I wonder if the pilot knows someone who lives here!
I like Rory. I think he’d do well for the SCons, or at least relatively well.
Fortunately, he hasn’t got a hope in hell.
The others are pure SNP gold. Although I’m hoping for Boris or Gove, I’ve got to admit that the Poundland Francis Urquhart is growing on me.
Lars Løkke has run a good campaign and Venstre (centre right) will improve on their performance in 2015 - The Social Democrats and Mette Frederiksen have done a good job of using "time for a change" without providing specifics but they will end up with fewer seats in the Folketing than 2015.
The Dansk Folkeparti will see their vote share halved and thus despite the Social Democrats not performing that well Mette Frederiksen is almost certain to end up PM but there is a lot of disagreement on the left - especially the Radikale being firm on not supporting the "new paradigm" policy on immigration (the social democrats have won back a lot of DF voters with tough talk on this issue).
The upshot is that Lars Løkke's offer of a grand coalition of Venstre and SD should not be excluded. Important to remember that in Danish politics party names are usually the opposite to the party policy so Radikale Venstre (radical left) are arch-centrists, Venstre (left) is right and Enhedslisten (Unity List) are the communists who split every few years.
Things to look out for are the numbers for more extremist politics on the left - Socialistike Folkeparti, Enhedslisten, Alternativet as it may indicate how easy/hard it will be for the red bloc to work well together - Mette F will want to go it alone if at all possible- she is not a fan of some of the more Corbynite thinking doing the rounds among Nick Palmer's old buddies on the far left.
One point though - him being anti EU. Whether he personally is or not, if the Labour policy at the GE is Ref/Remain (as I am sure it will be) then IMO that should bring the Remainers over. Not all of them, of course, but a hell of a lot.
Enough to beat Bojo, Farage? Dunno. Hope so.
As in much else, the UK will be participating but not directly influencing.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1129810/conservative-councillor-tory-house-firebombed-graeme-campbell-lanarkshire
The politician, who was elected in 2007 and again in 2017, believes he was deliberately targeted because of his work on local issues.
But he declared: “I will continue stand up for my community. Some people don’t like what I’m doing because they are not law-abiding citizens
Change is coming
As the rest of the table concentrated studiously on eating up.
So Winston envied Wilde's capacity of 3 bottles of brandy a day.
I often think these tales of the alcohol consumption of 'hellraisers' are mythical, but if not - and considering WC's own habits in that area - the conversation between the two of them would probably in practice have been rather like the sort that one overhears in a Weatherspoons as closing time approaches.
And it is not even as if CCHQ would be able to fall back on Corbyn being scruffy and unkempt. Now it is Boris who must take Cameron's mum's advice.
Duplicate link removed.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-48522729
https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2019/guide/macq
93.8% counted. Updated 4hhours ago
James May and Andy Serkis were both living on Lancaster Campus at the same time
Rhianna and Sheldon Cooper are best friends in real life
Peter Falk and Patrick McGoohan were best friends too.
Life is weird
- That Esther McVey says we can pay half the money for a no deal transition.
- She's a Remoaner! Look at this beermat!
Short-Trousers now at the helm!
White: English/Welsh/Scottish/Northern Irish/British - 64%
White: Irish - 1%
White: Gypsy or Irish Traveller - 0%
White: Other White - 12%
Mixed/multiple ethnic groups: White and Black Caribbean - 1%
Mixed/multiple ethnic groups: White and Black African - 0%
Mixed/multiple ethnic groups: White and Asian - 1%
Mixed/multiple ethnic groups: Other Mixed - 1%
Asian/Asian British: Indian - 3%
Asian/Asian British: Pakistani - 10%
Asian/Asian British: Bangladeshi - 0%
Asian/Asian British: Chinese - 0%
Asian/Asian British: Other Asian - 3%
Black/African/Caribbean/Black British: African - 1%
Black/African/Caribbean/Black British: Caribbean - 1%
Black/African/Caribbean/Black British: Other Black - 0%
Other Arab - 0%
Other Any other ethnic group - 1%
Tactical loss; strategic gain.
Tomorrow's Peterborough by-election looks to me, at the moment, better than the Tory leadership race. The following are with Ladbrokes.
I'm on 10-1 for the Tories to poll under 10%. That has now come in to 7/2 and no longer represents much value to my mind
Someone posted earlier that they thought Labour might hold on. If so, you can get 4/1 on that. I wouldn't touch that unless it was 14/1. They are in dire straits nationally.
The BXP look an absolute shoo-in so 1/6 is probably fairly sure.
LibDems are 33/1 to win. That's value without a doubt, but it still doesn't tempt me as I really don't think they will do it. I'd need 50/1 for a fun flutter. A better bet might be their vote share falling in the 20-30% range at 11/4. You can also get 20/1 on them attaining over 30%. I can see the BXP polling high 30's and possibly over 40% (for which you can get 5/1). Therefore I could see both Lab and Tories squeezed to say 25% collectively. That leaves the LibDem share of 20-30% looking like a good call, with a potential flutter that they make 30%.
So in summary, there are good bets if you like tight odds, the pick for me being
LibDems 20-30% at 11/4.
Otherwise if you enjoy hitting the occasional win at good odds I reckon the two flutters that catch my eye are:
LibDems for 30%+ at 20/1
BXP for 40%+ at 5/1
It's that last one which catches my eye.
Also if you for one second thought that Corbyn might have actually said that, you've completely lost touch with reality.