Mr. Streeter, you're upset that someone is remembering D-Day?
It should be remembered. If it had failed, then Europe today would be in a far worse state.
I don't think that's actually true.
D-Day was in June 1944. By this time, Germany was in retreat in the south through Italy and the east from Russia. It had already essentially lost the war - as had Japan.
So what would have happened if D-Day had failed for the Allies in the worst possible way: say we'd got a massive amount of men and material over there, and then faced another Dunkirk?
Aside from the tragic loss of life, not much. The Allies had enough men and material to fight on three fronts, the Italian and eastern fronts were still open - and Germany would still be losing, and still need to defend France and the French coastline in case we tried again.
And then the US would have dropped the first nuclear bomb on Berlin, not Hiroshima.
Mid-1944 was far too late for Germany - they'd already lost the war. Even without nukes, they wouldn't have lasted much past 1946, unless Hitler somehow came to a pact with Stalin - and it's hard to see that happening.
Even if the whole of Germany ended up under Russian control, I don't think Europe now, 75 years later, would be in a 'far worse' state.
Europe would look very different without West Germany being all in the western post WW2 power axis mind. Not sure where the impetus to create the EU would have come from, as at its very heart it is essentially a peace deal between France and Germany.
So the for the purist EUrophobe, Overlord should have failed?
Alastair is absolutely right about UNS. When the LibDems in the lead poss was UNS'd it had Labour losing Stockton North & South, Darlington, Hartlepool and Redcar to the Brexit Party, but regaining Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland from the Tories.
As Simon Clarke the MSEC MP is screamingly Brexit this feels unlikely. Once we smash the old two party duopoly I am certain that all kinds of odd results will happen that will have Prof Curtice giggling away in the BBC Election Night Studio trying to explain it.
I have just turned 55 and I think Boris Johnson will be the last Tory PM of my lifetime. I also think I’ll die a citizen of England, not of the UK. But the good news is that I think our trading relationship with the Faeroe Islands will be better than it has been since the 12th century.
I think the tories are about to face at least 2 elections out of power. That's the optimistic scenario for them I think. They'll split either before or after a GE and the rebuilding, if not a merger with BXP will take time .
On this day it is perhaps worth reminding ourselves of that wonderful response by American President Lyndon Johnson when told by General de Gaulle that all American soldiers had to leave France. His response "including those buried in the ground"
Trump backtracks on NHS comments on good morning Britain this morning according to SKY.
NHS is no longer part of trade deal
The US wants to sweep away drugs effectiveness and cost assessments and approved lists of drugs through programmes such as NICE and HRA. It wants third countries to have American levels of healthcare costs and clinical effectiveness.
It doesn't like single payer healthcare systems such as the NHS in its current form. Trump was loose in his talk of the NHS being on the table.
It wasn’t loose talk. It was merely repeating what the US ambassador had already said. Of course increased access to NHS contracts, tenders and the rest will be on the table in a trade deal. And if we want a deal - assuming we’ve not killed one off by dumping on Ireland - then we’ll have to give Congress what it wants.
Fair enough. The remarkable thing is I haven't heard what the UK expects to get out of an FTA with the US. It seems entirely totemic. If we are making major concessions it would be nice to think we get something back beyond sticking two buccaneering fingers up at the EU and Remoaners.
Is not a more fundamental question the extent to which the European elections were treated by voters as a de facto referendum on Brexit? It is by no means clear that this would apply to a general election. The picture at the top reminds us that in the 2015 and 2017 elections, the latter ostensibly called on the issue of Brexit, Ukip was wiped out and the LibDems nearly so.
The Euro elections gave a strong read on the percentage of the electorate for which Brexit is likely to be a very big deal. Basically, it’s over half of any likely GE turnout. But that still leaves millions of votes up for grabs based on other issues. This is why I think the Brexit party is likely to drain a substantial portion of its vote percentage in a GE.
If you look at absolute vote numbers then UKIP lost half a million votes between EP2014 and GE2015. That's not a bad baseline to have in mind for the Brexit Party, which would give them 4.75m votes at a GE2020, or about 15% of the vote.
Maybe this time is different, but it's not a bad starting point.
Yes, even with a Boris led Tory Party the Brexit Party were on 13% with Yougov last night and against a Hunt or Gove led Tory Party the Brexit Party was still over 20%
Is not a more fundamental question the extent to which the European elections were treated by voters as a de facto referendum on Brexit? It is by no means clear that this would apply to a general election. The picture at the top reminds us that in the 2015 and 2017 elections, the latter ostensibly called on the issue of Brexit, Ukip was wiped out and the LibDems nearly so.
The Euro elections gave a strong read on the percentage of the electorate for which Brexit is likely to be a very big deal. Basically, it’s over half of any likely GE turnout. But that still leaves millions of votes up for grabs based on other issues. This is why I think the Brexit party is likely to drain a substantial portion of its vote percentage in a GE.
The Brexit Party also have to find 650 Parliamentary candidates who can appear normal and not say something obviously stupid, incendiary, racist or misogynistic during the course of an electoral campaign.
I am not too worried about the Brexit Party gaining many seats.
Were you not too worried about Leave winning? Of Trump becoming President? It won't be who they are, but what they represent, that gets them elected.
They represent small-f fascism and not-so-covert sympathy for the agenda of a hostile foreign power. Any that get elected to our Mother of Parliaments will be symbols of shame.
The shame will be shared with those MPs coming before them, traducing democracy.
Trump backtracks on NHS comments on good morning Britain this morning according to SKY.
NHS is no longer part of trade deal
The US wants to sweep away drugs effectiveness and cost assessments and approved lists of drugs through programmes such as NICE and HRA. It wants third countries to have American levels of healthcare costs and clinical effectiveness.
It doesn't like single payer healthcare systems such as the NHS in its current form. Trump was loose in his talk of the NHS being on the table.
It wasn’t loose talk. It was merely repeating what the US ambassador had already said. Of course increased access to NHS contracts, tenders and the rest will be on the table in a trade deal. And if we want a deal - assuming we’ve not killed one off by dumping on Ireland - then we’ll have to give Congress what it wants.
You've just given the best reason to dump on Ireland.
The more extreme Left do have a strand of anti-Americanism and it can permeate to the less extreme sometimes. Yes, the Septics can be barmy, they voted for Trump, but he was democratically elected.
That's what puzzles me. Not so much his election - Hillary was always a poor candidate. Vote for me because I have a vagina, I used to live in the White House, and it's my turn - but the fact that some here are happy to march against another nation's democratic decision.
'Who do you think you are?' would be my reaction were I American. It's the old illusion that people consider their own judgement impeccable. Motes in eyes, and all that.
Millions more Americans voted for Hillary. Trumpton ‘won’ merely because of the vagaries of the Electoral College.
Most Americans had no problem with that system until it gives them a result they dont like. It's like how PR gains a lot of fairweather supporters right after an election when people become outraged the other lot get in on less than 50% rather thsn their lot.
Interesting discussion of swing in the header by Alastair and the substantial contribution by IanB2. They're clearly both right that traditional models break down in these circumstances. I'm sure there ARE models that will work, though - it's not quite as random as swirling bathwater....
Except that the swirling bathwater is what happens between now and the next general election, and there aren't any models which can accurately predict that in advance.
Were Hillary to have won on a minority of the popular vote, you would be silent.
If it hadn't been that, you'd be looking for another excuse. It was the Russians wot done it, the people were bamboozled by false consciousness, someone who used to be related to someone who lived next door to Trump lied. They had a bus campaign that was unfair because it was effective.
If you win the states, you become President. If you want to re-write the rules after the event to suit, you can always march and demand PR. (But only to be brought in if it's to your advantage).
The interesting finding in that survey is that Remainers DON'T associate more with the Western and global worlds. The EU is both a globalist and a protectionist construct. It looks like Remainers are more attracted by the protectionist element.
Point of order - the survey does show that Remainers associate much more with the global community than Leavers. It's still a minority but the difference is marked. As they don't associate more with the Western world, I assume this is mostly the Guardianistas like me, who feel closer to, say, an intellectual socialist in India than to Donald Trump, and who in principle doesn't think nationality is a very useful guide and personal type is more important.
Given much of the developing world e.g. India with Modi and Bolsonaro with Brazil and Russia with Putin is currently led by nationalists am not sure identifying with the global community held the left that much at the moment except in a few nations with socialist leaders like Mexico with Lopez Obrador
Trump backtracks on NHS comments on good morning Britain this morning according to SKY.
NHS is no longer part of trade deal
The US wants to sweep away drugs effectiveness and cost assessments and approved lists of drugs through programmes such as NICE and HRA. It wants third countries to have American levels of healthcare costs and clinical effectiveness.
It doesn't like single payer healthcare systems such as the NHS in its current form. Trump was loose in his talk of the NHS being on the table.
It wasn’t loose talk. It was merely repeating what the US ambassador had already said. Of course increased access to NHS contracts, tenders and the rest will be on the table in a trade deal. And if we want a deal - assuming we’ve not killed one off by dumping on Ireland - then we’ll have to give Congress what it wants.
It certainly wasn't loose talk. A no-deal Brexit will bring a fire-sale. I am sure Boris will see that as a price well worth paying for the keys to number ten.
Trump backtracks on NHS comments on good morning Britain this morning according to SKY.
NHS is no longer part of trade deal
The US wants to sweep away drugs effectiveness and cost assessments and approved lists of drugs through programmes such as NICE and HRA. It wants third countries to have American levels of healthcare costs and clinical effectiveness.
It doesn't like single payer healthcare systems such as the NHS in its current form. Trump was loose in his talk of the NHS being on the table.
It wasn’t loose talk. It was merely repeating what the US ambassador had already said. Of course increased access to NHS contracts, tenders and the rest will be on the table in a trade deal. And if we want a deal - assuming we’ve not killed one off by dumping on Ireland - then we’ll have to give Congress what it wants.
You've just given the best reason to dump on Ireland.
We don’t need to dump on Ireland to avoid a detrimental trade deal with the US.
Mr. Streeter, you're upset that someone is remembering D-Day?
It should be remembered. If it had failed, then Europe today would be in a far worse state.
I don't think that's actually true.
D-Day was in June 1944. By this time, Germany was in retreat in the south through Italy and the east from Russia. It had already essentially lost the war - as had Japan.
So what would have happened if D-Day had failed for the Allies in the worst possible way: say we'd got a massive amount of men and material over there, and then faced another Dunkirk?
Aside from the tragic loss of life, not much. The Allies had enough men and material to fight on three fronts, the Italian and eastern fronts were still open - and Germany would still be losing, and still need to defend France and the French coastline in case we tried again.
And then the US would have dropped the first nuclear bomb on Berlin, not Hiroshima.
Mid-1944 was far too late for Germany - they'd already lost the war. Even without nukes, they wouldn't have lasted much past 1946, unless Hitler somehow came to a pact with Stalin - and it's hard to see that happening.
Even if the whole of Germany ended up under Russian control, I don't think Europe now, 75 years later, would be in a 'far worse' state.
Europe would look very different without West Germany being all in the western post WW2 power axis mind. Not sure where the impetus to create the EU would have come from, as at its very heart it is essentially a peace deal between France and Germany.
It may well look very different, but the statement was that it would be in a 'far worse' state. I don't think it would be that different in broad terms.
Then there's the question of how the US and UK would have reacted if D-Day had failed. They both wanted to defeat Germany, but also didn't want Stalin to overrun western Europe. Might they have gone easy on the western front (using the excuse of 'preparing' another attack) to allow Germany to concentrate on the eastern front, delaying Stalin's forces whilst the US prepared Little Boy and Fat Man to knock out Germany or bring Hitler to the negotiating table?
I haven't read any authoritative info on what was planned in such an eventuality - or even if it has been acknowledged.
If the next election is seen as Brexit-dominated, this might hurt Labour less than the Conservatives because both of the Brexit-issue parties, LibDem and TBP, are seen as right wing -- TBP because of Farage, Widdecombe and Ukip, and the LibDems because they were in coalition with the blue team less than a decade before the next election, be it in 2022 or this coming October.
It will therefore be easier for Conservative supporters to jump ship on Brexit, whether for or against.
So though AW's OP takes issue with the seat predictions, they might get the right result even if for the wrong reasons. Labour to be the largest single party, although I'd go further and suggest a Labour majority might be on the cards.
With Boris Yougov gives the Tories a 7% lead and a majority with Labour only tied with the LDs
Am I alone in being seriously annoyed with the BBC reporting of the Trump visit ?
The deferential cringe I can understand, as a more or less unavoidable consequence of their ‘impartiality’ remit. That it should lead every report and get continuous banner headlines over a number of days for, what is essentially a ceremonial bit of international flattery, is less justifiable.
I think it’s been fawning and awful. The BBC is unwatchable nowadays. I long since gave up on it since the hopeless and irritating Laura K took sway.
How do you know it’s been fawning and awful if you long since gave up on it? You still watch just to confirm it’s unwatchable?
Interesting discussion of swing in the header by Alastair and the substantial contribution by IanB2. They're clearly both right that traditional models break down in these circumstances. I'm sure there ARE models that will work, though - it's not quite as random as swirling bathwater.
Possibly the Peterborough by-election will give us some clues. If the Tory vote holds up in circumstances where the Brexit challenge to Labour offers an obvious alternative, it will show a certain hardcore resistance. Likewise the Labour vote, since it can't be said that Peterborough's recent experience of Labour MPs (or indeed any MPs) has been very encouraging. If the LibDems boom, it'll show that there's substance to their rise that is resistant to tactical voting. And if the Brexit vote simply pulverises everyone, that'll of course be a Stark Warning to all of us.
I think there will be models that work - certain demographic and geographic characteristics are likely to be key variables, and I don't doubt that there will be effects where they reinforce and cancel, causing greater and lesser vote swings.
I further think that the data necessary to employ such models won't exist in useful or usable quantities, though. We will, however, be able to understand what happened in retrospect and why, but this will be less useful.
I have to raise an eyebrow when certain PBers wish to diminish the memorializing of hugely important global dates within living memory.
The foundation of post war liberal democracies lies in the triumph over the WWII axis forces. The allied success and the freedom shield that we have enjoyed for several generations is not to lightly regarded like some long forgotten reality show.
Our PB community is but one small microcosm of the freedoms that flowed from the massive sacrifice that the golden generation gave. Remembering the past does not mean not looking forward to the future. They are not mutually exclusive.
However the present and future generations should understand where their freedoms flowed from and that it has never been a cost free option.
The more extreme Left do have a strand of anti-Americanism and it can permeate to the less extreme sometimes. Yes, the Septics can be barmy, they voted for Trump, but he was democratically elected.
That's what puzzles me. Not so much his election - Hillary was always a poor candidate. Vote for me because I have a vagina, I used to live in the White House, and it's my turn - but the fact that some here are happy to march against another nation's democratic decision.
'Who do you think you are?' would be my reaction were I American. It's the old illusion that people consider their own judgement impeccable. Motes in eyes, and all that.
Some on the extreme right are equally, if not more, Anti-American.
Enoch Powell was of the view America was our enemy not our ally.
America's President who was a womanising war monger and serial drug abuser visits London was warmly greeted by The PM, press and people.
The fake news was that a clean cut, war hero with a beautiful wife was beyond reproach. JFK's mythology wiped out the difficult bitss.
JFK's electioneering also got us damned near to nuclear oblivion. He was an incredibly poor president.
JFK navigated the Cuban Missile Crisis successfully and it was under Johnson the US got really trapped in Vietnam with large loss of lives, Johnson was a poor foreign policy President despite domestic success
I am concerned that an incoming no-deal Tory leader could checkmate any Remain/soft-Brexit resistance in three moves. If Boris is ensuring that he wants to leave on 31 Oct, this scenario feels like his only option.
After an August of no progress in Europe, PM Boris calls a general election in September looking for a mandate for No Deal. Corbyn agrees. Parliament is dissolved.
The Brexit party steps aside from all Tory MPs supporting the manifesto, but challenges Labour, Soubry etc.
The election campaign is helpfully long, with poling day mid-October undermining this parliament's ability to oppose.
The outcome of the election is determined by FPTP. The remain vote is split as it was in May, but with the Brexit party choosing where to stand we end up with the Tories as the largest party, with a handful of Brexit party MPs providing the majority.
Yesterday was instructive for anyone wanting to see how the Labour Party evolves from here.
According to the cancer-supporting members yesterday was a triumph. Rather than bend his life-long and always flawless principles by attending the state visit as invited, Jezbollah instead boycotted it and gave a foaming at the mouth rant to the protest crowd. Instead of commemorating our shared sacrifice in blood he chose to shat on it from the stage.
And in doing so the Corbynites cheered him on - its FANTASTIC that instead of acting like a Prime Minister in waiting he acted like a sad old man howling at the moon in self-righteous petulance. Its PERFECT that he stood up to the neo-liberal and boycotted. Once Corbyn leads Labour to the inevitable 704 seat majority in the next general election, all Corbyn has to do is address the protest rally outside 1,600 Pennsylvania Avenue he chose to organise rather than meet the President inside - address the rally and the neolibs will FALL.
A Wazzock leading the party. Wazzocks inside the party cheering on the cretinous stupidity of turning 119 years of socialist struggle for power into a Socialist Worker protest.
I for one cannot wait for the divorce to happen.
My politics is not yours but your call above is spot on about Corbyn. What surprised me yesterday was Lady Nugee making an equal fool of herself on the same issue. Totally clueless..
... will voters treat the next election as normal or as Brexit-dominated?
The next 20 general elections in England are going to be Brexit-dominated. Irrespective if you Revoke, Deal or No Deal. Nothing and no one can now hinder that. England has made her bed, and she must now lie in it. Fortunately the other members of the Union have a choice whether they want to share the distinctively unsatisfying position. We are not in the mood for bending over.
Wales voted Leave and the Brexit Party came first in Wales in the European Parliament elections, the Brexit Party came second in Scotland in the European Parliament elections
Trump backtracks on NHS comments on good morning Britain this morning according to SKY.
NHS is no longer part of trade deal
The US wants to sweep away drugs effectiveness and cost assessments and approved lists of drugs through programmes such as NICE and HRA. It wants third countries to have American levels of healthcare costs and clinical effectiveness.
It doesn't like single payer healthcare systems such as the NHS in its current form. Trump was loose in his talk of the NHS being on the table.
It wasn’t loose talk. It was merely repeating what the US ambassador had already said. Of course increased access to NHS contracts, tenders and the rest will be on the table in a trade deal. And if we want a deal - assuming we’ve not killed one off by dumping on Ireland - then we’ll have to give Congress what it wants.
You've just given the best reason to dump on Ireland.
We don’t need to dump on Ireland to avoid a detrimental trade deal with the US.
We don't but a belief in more trade deals and more globalisation has been a feature of our political establishment for decades.
Now that belief might have had value after 1945 but it has be increasingly doubtful whether that still applied after 2000.
Yet our politicians are still stuck on the 'how' of trade deals rather than consider they 'why'.
Being in the South of France at the moment with people of all nationalities including Germans and Italians and an unusually high number of Americans this wall-to -wall D-Day stuff in and on the British media feels so anachronistic. The war's over! Even Millwall fans have stopped singing about it. It REALLY is time to move on.
@IanB2 There wassome interesting work in the JRF report on Brexit on the influence of peers and locality on voting, confirming your ideas on minetown and brokerville. Those with intermediate education and skills in Leave areas were more likely to vote leave than demographic equivalents in Remain areas. In other words, voters take their cues from what is happening in their immediate environment. The message is that a Brexit that fails to deliver in Leaverstan is going to struggle to retain support, unless things markedly improve there.
I have to raise an eyebrow when certain PBers wish to diminish the memorializing of hugely important global dates within living memory.
The foundation of post war liberal democracies lies in the triumph over the WWII axis forces. The allied success and the freedom shield that we have enjoyed for several generations is not to lightly regarded like some long forgotten reality show.
Our PB community is but one small microcosm of the freedoms that flowed from the massive sacrifice that the golden generation gave. Remembering the past does not mean not looking forward to the future. They are not mutually exclusive.
However the present and future generations should understand where their freedoms flowed from and that it has never been a cost free option.
True, but equally there is more to British history than WWII. I have a sense that intense nostalgia for our finest hour holds us back. If we could remember other lessons from our history, we might rediscover a broader identity that enables the country to move forward.
The more extreme Left do have a strand of anti-Americanism and it can permeate to the less extreme sometimes. Yes, the Septics can be barmy, they voted for Trump, but he was democratically elected.
That's what puzzles me. Not so much his election - Hillary was always a poor candidate. Vote for me because I have a vagina, I used to live in the White House, and it's my turn - but the fact that some here are happy to march against another nation's democratic decision.
'Who do you think you are?' would be my reaction were I American. It's the old illusion that people consider their own judgement impeccable. Motes in eyes, and all that.
Maybe worry a little less about when we march against democratic decisions and a little more about when we overthrow them?
I am concerned that an incoming no-deal Tory leader could checkmate any Remain/soft-Brexit resistance in three moves. If Boris is ensuring that he wants to leave on 31 Oct, this scenario feels like his only option.
After an August of no progress in Europe, PM Boris calls a general election in September looking for a mandate for No Deal. Corbyn agrees. Parliament is dissolved.
The Brexit party steps aside from all Tory MPs supporting the manifesto, but challenges Labour, Soubry etc.
The election campaign is helpfully long, with poling day mid-October undermining this parliament's ability to oppose.
The outcome of the election is determined by FPTP. The remain vote is split as it was in May, but with the Brexit party choosing where to stand we end up with the Tories as the largest party, with a handful of Brexit party MPs providing the majority.
Bang job done, NHS sold.
And you think there will be 300+ Conservative MPs willing to 'sell' the NHS ?
If so why wasn't the NHS sold when the Conservatives had a majority ?
Trump backtracks on NHS comments on good morning Britain this morning according to SKY.
NHS is no longer part of trade deal
Consistency not part of the Donalds belief system.
Can he be trusted in any negotiations when he tears up agreements on a whim?
The one thing we know for certain about a trade deal with the US is that it will only happen on terms set by the US. In that way, it’s exactly the same as any trade deal that will be done with the EU, China and any other major economic power. We need them more than they need us. None of this is a surprise. The choice for Johnson will be a series of no deals or doing as he’s told. Either way, he’s buggered - though I suspect he’d just about beat Corbyn in a general election, so it will be rolling humiliation over a period of time for him rather than a sudden one.
Except...at some point perhaps sooner perhaps later people will remember that they actually don't give a fuck about trade deals.
All those which will be concluded at disadvantageous terms will pass unnoticed.
Few will really know that they are worse off than they could have been.
Being in the South of France at the moment with people of all nationalities including Germans and Italians and an unusually high number of Americans this wall-to -wall D-Day stuff in and on the British media feels so anachronistic. The war's over! Even Millwall fans have stopped singing about it. It REALLY is time to move on.
Macron is hosting Trump tomorrow for a big D Day commemoration at a Normandy cemetery.
Plenty of surviving veterans will be at Southsea today and as long as they live we remember their sacrifice to free Europe from Nazism and Fascism
Yesterday was instructive for anyone wanting to see how the Labour Party evolves from here.
According to the cancer-supporting members yesterday was a triumph. Rather than bend his life-long and always flawless principles by attending the state visit as invited, Jezbollah instead boycotted it and gave a foaming at the mouth rant to the protest crowd. Instead of commemorating our shared sacrifice in blood he chose to shat on it from the stage.
And in doing so the Corbynites cheered him on - its FANTASTIC that instead of acting like a Prime Minister in waiting he acted like a sad old man howling at the moon in self-righteous petulance. Its PERFECT that he stood up to the neo-liberal and boycotted. Once Corbyn leads Labour to the inevitable 704 seat majority in the next general election, all Corbyn has to do is address the protest rally outside 1,600 Pennsylvania Avenue he chose to organise rather than meet the President inside - address the rally and the neolibs will FALL.
A Wazzock leading the party. Wazzocks inside the party cheering on the cretinous stupidity of turning 119 years of socialist struggle for power into a Socialist Worker protest.
I for one cannot wait for the divorce to happen.
My politics is not yours but your call above is spot on about Corbyn. What surprised me yesterday was Lady Nugee making an equal fool of herself on the same issue. Totally clueless..
How Corbyn can be so crass as to make his spittle-flecked rant in Trafalgar Square AFTER it became known he had asked for a meeting with Trump is beyond me.
Nonetheless, after the centenary of 1918 and this last D Day that veterans are likely to attend, and presumably the 75th anniversary of VE and VJ day next year, it is time to stop remembering and to look forward. A lot of this memoralising is getting very mawkish, and not very British.
Very well said. This nostalgic reverence of past martial glories (and ignomies) is starting to look like the last days of the Soviet Union.
Being in the South of France at the moment with people of all nationalities including Germans and Italians and an unusually high number of Americans this wall-to -wall D-Day stuff in and on the British media feels so anachronistic. The war's over! Even Millwall fans have stopped singing about it. It REALLY is time to move on.
I take it you laugh at the French of July 14th when they parade around about something which happened three centuries ago ?
I am concerned that an incoming no-deal Tory leader could checkmate any Remain/soft-Brexit resistance in three moves. If Boris is ensuring that he wants to leave on 31 Oct, this scenario feels like his only option.
After an August of no progress in Europe, PM Boris calls a general election in September looking for a mandate for No Deal. Corbyn agrees. Parliament is dissolved.
The Brexit party steps aside from all Tory MPs supporting the manifesto, but challenges Labour, Soubry etc.
The election campaign is helpfully long, with poling day mid-October undermining this parliament's ability to oppose.
The outcome of the election is determined by FPTP. The remain vote is split as it was in May, but with the Brexit party choosing where to stand we end up with the Tories as the largest party, with a handful of Brexit party MPs providing the majority.
Bang job done, NHS sold.
And you think there will be 300+ Conservative MPs willing to 'sell' the NHS ?
If so why wasn't the NHS sold when the Conservatives had a majority ?
The bigger problem is that there are 300+ Conservative MPs who in the abstract want trade deals with everyone and in the concrete are not prepared to make the compromises necessary to get any kind of trade deal or to explain those compromises. They don't want a backstop to get the trade deal with the EU and they don't want chlorinated chicken and access to the NHS for the USA.
You just wish they'd come out and admit that all they want to do is snuggle under the duvet and pretend that the world wasn't there.
True, but equally there is more to British history than WWII. I have a sense that intense nostalgia for our finest hour holds us back. If we could remember other lessons from our history, we might rediscover a broader identity that enables the country to move forward.
You certainly often see claims like 'appeasement doesn't work' in relation to all kinds of situations which appear to have very little in common with the rise of Hitler.
Perhaps if we counterbalanced a focus on WWII with learning about the Suez crisis we might have a more rounded national myth! [but probably I should leave interfering with the history curriculum to experts].
I am concerned that an incoming no-deal Tory leader could checkmate any Remain/soft-Brexit resistance in three moves. If Boris is ensuring that he wants to leave on 31 Oct, this scenario feels like his only option.
After an August of no progress in Europe, PM Boris calls a general election in September looking for a mandate for No Deal. Corbyn agrees. Parliament is dissolved.
The Brexit party steps aside from all Tory MPs supporting the manifesto, but challenges Labour, Soubry etc.
The election campaign is helpfully long, with poling day mid-October undermining this parliament's ability to oppose.
The outcome of the election is determined by FPTP. The remain vote is split as it was in May, but with the Brexit party choosing where to stand we end up with the Tories as the largest party, with a handful of Brexit party MPs providing the majority.
Bang job done, NHS sold.
And you think there will be 300+ Conservative MPs willing to 'sell' the NHS ?
If so why wasn't the NHS sold when the Conservatives had a majority ?
The bigger problem is that there are 300+ Conservative MPs who in the abstract want trade deals with everyone and in the concrete are not prepared to make the compromises necessary to get any kind of trade deal or to explain those compromises. They don't want a backstop to get the trade deal with the EU and they don't want chlorinated chicken and access to the NHS for the USA.
You just wish they'd come out and admit that all they want to do is snuggle under the duvet and pretend that the world wasn't there.
@AlastairMeeks what do you reckon to my scenario. Checkmate in three moves for the no deal Brexiteers?
Am I alone in being seriously annoyed with the BBC reporting of the Trump visit ?
The deferential cringe I can understand, as a more or less unavoidable consequence of their ‘impartiality’ remit. That it should lead every report and get continuous banner headlines over a number of days for, what is essentially a ceremonial bit of international flattery, is less justifiable.
I think it’s been fawning and awful. The BBC is unwatchable nowadays. I long since gave up on it since the hopeless and irritating Laura K took sway.
How do you know it’s been fawning and awful if you long since gave up on it? You still watch just to confirm it’s unwatchable?
Nonetheless, after the centenary of 1918 and this last D Day that veterans are likely to attend, and presumably the 75th anniversary of VE and VJ day next year, it is time to stop remembering and to look forward. A lot of this memoralising is getting very mawkish, and not very British.
Very well said. This nostalgic reverence of past martial glories (and ignomies) is starting to look like the last days of the Soviet Union.
Being in the South of France at the moment with people of all nationalities including Germans and Italians and an unusually high number of Americans this wall-to -wall D-Day stuff in and on the British media feels so anachronistic. The war's over! Even Millwall fans have stopped singing about it. It REALLY is time to move on.
An unsurprising sentiment from those living in Vichy France - a time the French would love to forget not to say erase.
At the moment the polling shows the Brexit Party certainly ahead of the Tories in votes and seats and another hung parliament. If the Brexit Party take the lead as Opinium shows they even get most seats in that hung parliament.
If the Brexit Party win the Peterborough by election tomorrow that will also show the situation is worse for the main parties than the seat predictors predict as Labour still hold Peterborough on current polling with electoral calculus for example.
Seats in by-elections are often significantly swingier than in general elections. Had the swing in by-elections been directly predictive during the height of Lib Dem strength, we'd probably be looking at Lib Dem majorities in 2001 and 2005.
Mr. Streeter, you're upset that someone is remembering D-Day?
It should be remembered. If it had failed, then Europe today would be in a far worse state.
I don't think that's actually true.
D-Day was in June 1944. By this time, Germany was in retreat in the south through Italy and the east from Russia. It had already essentially lost the war - as had Japan.
So what would have happened if D-Day had failed for the Allies in the worst possible way: say we'd got a massive amount of men and material over there, and then faced another Dunkirk?
Aside from the tragic loss of life, not much. The Allies had enough men and material to fight on three fronts, the Italian and eastern fronts were still open - and Germany would still be losing, and still need to defend France and the French coastline in case we tried again.
And then the US would have dropped the first nuclear bomb on Berlin, not Hiroshima.
Mid-1944 was far too late for Germany - they'd already lost the war. Even without nukes, they wouldn't have lasted much past 1946, unless Hitler somehow came to a pact with Stalin - and it's hard to see that happening.
Even if the whole of Germany ended up under Russian control, I don't think Europe now, 75 years later, would be in a 'far worse' state.
If the whole of Germany ended up under Soviet Control it would have meant no EEC but also changed the Cold War. It would have meant Gulags extending further west. Though would it have stopped at Germany? France could have ended up under Soviet rule too. The Channel could have been the location of the Iron Curtain.
Mr. Jonathan, it's 22 years since there was 24 hours to save the NHS.
The Conservative leader who succeeds May would be courageous to call a General Election given their current polling.
It is risky, but I suspect he has no choice. A Boris bounce, an EU flounce and a BXP pact could create the conditions where he could go to the country to force a no-deal 31 Oct Brexit in September.
America's President who was a womanising war monger and serial drug abuser visits London was warmly greeted by The PM, press and people.
The fake news was that a clean cut, war hero with a beautiful wife was beyond reproach. JFK's mythology wiped out the difficult bitss.
JFK's electioneering also got us damned near to nuclear oblivion. He was an incredibly poor president.
JFK navigated the Cuban Missile Crisis successfully and it was under Johnson the US got really trapped in Vietnam with large loss of lives, Johnson was a poor foreign policy President despite domestic success
I have to raise an eyebrow when certain PBers wish to diminish the memorializing of hugely important global dates within living memory.
The foundation of post war liberal democracies lies in the triumph over the WWII axis forces. The allied success and the freedom shield that we have enjoyed for several generations is not to lightly regarded like some long forgotten reality show.
Our PB community is but one small microcosm of the freedoms that flowed from the massive sacrifice that the golden generation gave. Remembering the past does not mean not looking forward to the future. They are not mutually exclusive.
However the present and future generations should understand where their freedoms flowed from and that it has never been a cost free option.
Welcome back Jack! I think you wouldn't need to look further than Northern Irelnd if you think celebrating conquests of past centuries is the way to go. Or maybe the Middle East if you want to go back Millennia.
Penny Mordaunt on Sky just now sidestepped the question of her ambition to stand for election
If she had no intention I would have expected her to say no
There is a way I can see through for Penny - I doubt the ERG trust BoJo to deliver a no-deal Brexit if necessary so, at the moment, they are left with Raab, Leadsom or McVey. Raab seems to have an unending ability to put off people with his manner, Leadsom isn't going anywhere and McVey's Blue-Collar Conservatism angle hasn't caught fire.
I suspect Penny is waiting for what happens in Peterborough and the impact any result has on MPs. and then will decide.
I'm not worrying about people marching, vague amusement is my reaction. They were asked what they wanted to achieve. Cue bemusement.
I suspect they want to feel better about themselves by showing their dislike. That dislike can verge on hate sometimes. Oh. and they're marching against that hate too.
75 years ago today a million troops from the UK, the US, Canada and countless other countries were preparing to sacrifice everything for the noblest cause the world has ever known. Men the age my boys are now were hours away from death. Heroes is not an adequate enough word for them. The least we can do is honour their memory now and always.
Mr. NorthWales, it's weird she hasn't jumped this way or that.
Mr. Jonathan, it's possible but things are such that a huge range of possibilities are genuinely credible.
Bit annoyed, speaking of forecasting the future, that the Hamilton specials (4 for 12 wins this season, 19 for 14) were still suspended when I checked Ladbrokes a short time ago.
I am concerned that an incoming no-deal Tory leader could checkmate any Remain/soft-Brexit resistance in three moves. If Boris is ensuring that he wants to leave on 31 Oct, this scenario feels like his only option.
After an August of no progress in Europe, PM Boris calls a general election in September looking for a mandate for No Deal. Corbyn agrees. Parliament is dissolved.
The Brexit party steps aside from all Tory MPs supporting the manifesto, but challenges Labour, Soubry etc.
The election campaign is helpfully long, with poling day mid-October undermining this parliament's ability to oppose.
The outcome of the election is determined by FPTP. The remain vote is split as it was in May, but with the Brexit party choosing where to stand we end up with the Tories as the largest party, with a handful of Brexit party MPs providing the majority.
Bang job done, NHS sold.
I share this concern. My hope is that a lot of Tory MPs would lose to the Lib Dems in this scenario
I am concerned that an incoming no-deal Tory leader could checkmate any Remain/soft-Brexit resistance in three moves. If Boris is ensuring that he wants to leave on 31 Oct, this scenario feels like his only option.
After an August of no progress in Europe, PM Boris calls a general election in September looking for a mandate for No Deal. Corbyn agrees. Parliament is dissolved.
The Brexit party steps aside from all Tory MPs supporting the manifesto, but challenges Labour, Soubry etc.
The election campaign is helpfully long, with poling day mid-October undermining this parliament's ability to oppose.
The outcome of the election is determined by FPTP. The remain vote is split as it was in May, but with the Brexit party choosing where to stand we end up with the Tories as the largest party, with a handful of Brexit party MPs providing the majority.
Bang job done, NHS sold.
And you think there will be 300+ Conservative MPs willing to 'sell' the NHS ?
If so why wasn't the NHS sold when the Conservatives had a majority ?
The bigger problem is that there are 300+ Conservative MPs who in the abstract want trade deals with everyone and in the concrete are not prepared to make the compromises necessary to get any kind of trade deal or to explain those compromises. They don't want a backstop to get the trade deal with the EU and they don't want chlorinated chicken and access to the NHS for the USA.
You just wish they'd come out and admit that all they want to do is snuggle under the duvet and pretend that the world wasn't there.
That can be the safer option if you don't have the skillset to negotiate trade deals.
And I see no evidence that our politicians and Sir Humphreys have that.
I seriously doubt that they've been successful in promoting British interests in the trade negotiations the EU has conducted in recent decades either.
Mr. Streeter, you're upset that someone is remembering D-Day?
It should be remembered. If it had failed, then Europe today would be in a far worse state.
D-Day should be remembered. A reasonable point, though, is that many of the different commemorations of the war seem to be continual in the last few years, at a moment when Britain needs to be urgently engaged with the present.
Although I also then don't think it's a coincidence that the particular memories it's engaging with are buttressing Brexit, I also think the wishes of the surviving veterans on this topic should be paramount ; and I'm sure most of them would like the ceremonies to continue for at least the next five years or so.
From what I’ve seen and heard veterans of WW2 are actually anti brexit as it negates everything they fought for and reflects the views of past politicians who actually served in it.
@IanB2 There wassome interesting work in the JRF report on Brexit on the influence of peers and locality on voting, confirming your ideas on minetown and brokerville. Those with intermediate education and skills in Leave areas were more likely to vote leave than demographic equivalents in Remain areas. In other words, voters take their cues from what is happening in their immediate environment. The message is that a Brexit that fails to deliver in Leaverstan is going to struggle to retain support, unless things markedly improve there.
How does social media change this hypothesis? Now voters take their cues from online communities, rather than just in the local community. This would suggest a reduced impact from local bias?
Trump backtracks on NHS comments on good morning Britain this morning according to SKY.
NHS is no longer part of trade deal
Consistency not part of the Donalds belief system.
Can he be trusted in any negotiations when he tears up agreements on a whim?
The one thing we know for certain about a trade deal with the US is that it will only happen on terms set by the US. In that way, it’s exactly the same as any trade deal that will be done with the EU, China and any other major economic power. We need them more than they need us. None of this is a surprise. The choice for Johnson will be a series of no deals or doing as he’s told. Either way, he’s buggered - though I suspect he’d just about beat Corbyn in a general election, so it will be rolling humiliation over a period of time for him rather than a sudden one.
Except...at some point perhaps sooner perhaps later people will remember that they actually don't give a fuck about trade deals.
All those which will be concluded at disadvantageous terms will pass unnoticed.
Few will really know that they are worse off than they could have been.
Then the deals are entirely pointless and so won’t be done. Which makes the current situation even more ridiculous.
At the moment the polling shows the Brexit Party certainly ahead of the Tories in votes and seats and another hung parliament. If the Brexit Party take the lead as Opinium shows they even get most seats in that hung parliament.
But that model probably doesn't take into account Brexit Party candidates standing against ERG Tories.
Without a pact they might just split the vote in every seat
I have to raise an eyebrow when certain PBers wish to diminish the memorializing of hugely important global dates within living memory.
The foundation of post war liberal democracies lies in the triumph over the WWII axis forces. The allied success and the freedom shield that we have enjoyed for several generations is not to lightly regarded like some long forgotten reality show.
Our PB community is but one small microcosm of the freedoms that flowed from the massive sacrifice that the golden generation gave. Remembering the past does not mean not looking forward to the future. They are not mutually exclusive.
However the present and future generations should understand where their freedoms flowed from and that it has never been a cost free option.
True, but equally there is more to British history than WWII. I have a sense that intense nostalgia for our finest hour holds us back. If we could remember other lessons from our history, we might rediscover a broader identity that enables the country to move forward.
An excellent post. I discovered when working in Lebanon after their twenty fifth year of conflict had ended how multi faceted wars can be. Each of perhaps ten different factions would claim to be holding the moral high ground including two of those who put the bomb on the bus that killed 42 Palestinian school children who I discovered were part of my crew.
75 years ago today a million troops from the UK, the US, Canada and countless other countries were preparing to sacrifice everything for the noblest cause the world has ever known. Men the age my boys are now were hours away from death. Heroes is not an adequate enough word for them. The least we can do is honour their memory now and always.
My grandfather was in his very early twenties, he went to Normandy and later found himself liberating Bergen-Belsen. I remember him fondly today.
Incidentally, whilst he never had much time for Germans after that, he like so many of his generation saw the EU/UN/NATO as critical to 'never again'. I remember that ,whenever Brexit descends into jingoism.
@AlastairMeeks what do you reckon to my scenario. Checkmate in three moves for the no deal Brexiteers?
First the No Dealer has to get to be Prime Minister. One unnoticed part of the 1922 Committee's timetable is that the new Conservative leader gets to test support while Parliament is still sitting. But let's assume that step is passed.
The EU is not going to be able to negotiate before 31 October because the new administration after the EU elections will not yet be in place. This simple objection has not yet been put to any of the Fantasy Island candidates claiming that it can all be done by then, so what they are saying in effect is No Deal. You would hope one of the journalists could manage to elicit an answer on this point.
But let's assume that question goes unasked. The Brexit party so far have indicated that they will not be standing aside from fighting the Conservatives. Nigel Farage has a long history of going back on his word, so I accept that might happen, but it's not particularly to be expected. Nor could any Conservative leader rely on him keeping his word if he changed it again.
Moreover, there are large numbers of Conservative MPs who do not accept No Deal as an acceptable outcome. They won't stay silent. The election will be dominated by stories of the Conservative party riven by splits.
Further, if the right unites, the Remain vote will unite too. Last time it happened behind Labour. It might again, or it might this time coalesce behind the Lib Dems, as in the EU elections. Saboteurs don't want to be crushed.
So no, I don't expect this particularly. Though everything is possible.
Were you not too worried about Leave winning? Of Trump becoming President? It won't be who they are, but what they represent, that gets them elected.
I think the point is that the Brexit Party has been in existence for a few months, and there has been little scrutiny of it (or its members).
I would expect, if there is a General Election, much more examination of its other policies and its potential MPs.
I don't think that would be to the advantage of the Brexit Party, so I think it would substantially underperform any polling taken now.
I expect TBP will take Posh tomorrow, though.
My guess is TBP will perform something like UKIP did in 2010 in a future GE. They'd get about 4 million votes but very few seats.
(I always thought Leave would win the referendum, the crucial piece of the jigsaw being Labour's half-hearted engagement via Corby. I thought Trump would lose, & he did lose the popular vote by some way. Despite living in the US for some years a while ago, I don't really understand its politics and rarely have any confidence in my US predictions)
75 years ago today a million troops from the UK, the US, Canada and countless other countries were preparing to sacrifice everything for the noblest cause the world has ever known. Men the age my boys are now were hours away from death. Heroes is not an adequate enough word for them. The least we can do is honour their memory now and always.
I have to raise an eyebrow when certain PBers wish to diminish the memorializing of hugely important global dates within living memory.
The foundation of post war liberal democracies lies in the triumph over the WWII axis forces. The allied success and the freedom shield that we have enjoyed for several generations is not to lightly regarded like some long forgotten reality show.
Our PB community is but one small microcosm of the freedoms that flowed from the massive sacrifice that the golden generation gave. Remembering the past does not mean not looking forward to the future. They are not mutually exclusive.
However the present and future generations should understand where their freedoms flowed from and that it has never been a cost free option.
True, but equally there is more to British history than WWII. I have a sense that intense nostalgia for our finest hour holds us back. If we could remember other lessons from our history, we might rediscover a broader identity that enables the country to move forward.
Indeed WWII is but a patchwork of vastly significant dates down the generations. 200 years ago the focus would be firmly on the triumph of allied forces over Napoleon.
Neither is this "nostalgia". This is not John Major's warm beer and midwife cycling down country lanes. This is the very essence of why we became the nation we are. We have a broad identity because of these historical landmarks. In particular we did not fall prey to the cult and evil of Nazism and the crushing of the individual over the all pervasiveness of the fascist state.
Trump backtracks on NHS comments on good morning Britain this morning according to SKY.
NHS is no longer part of trade deal
Consistency not part of the Donalds belief system.
Can he be trusted in any negotiations when he tears up agreements on a whim?
The one thing we know for certain about a trade deal with the US is that it will only happen on terms set by the US. In that way, it’s exactly the same as any trade deal that will be done with the EU, China and any other major economic power. We need them more than they need us. None of this is a surprise. The choice for Johnson will be a series of no deals or doing as he’s told. Either way, he’s buggered - though I suspect he’d just about beat Corbyn in a general election, so it will be rolling humiliation over a period of time for him rather than a sudden one.
Except...at some point perhaps sooner perhaps later people will remember that they actually don't give a fuck about trade deals.
All those which will be concluded at disadvantageous terms will pass unnoticed.
Few will really know that they are worse off than they could have been.
Then the deals are entirely pointless and so won’t be done. Which makes the current situation even more ridiculous.
Deals will be done because they have to be done that's how the modern world works. Even in a "No Deal" scenario (No Deal Leaver ****s please note).
But they will be sub-optimal to say the least. But that's fine because no one will notice they are less rich than they would have been (which latter is really all the so called Project Fear forecasts said pre-Ref).
75 years ago today a million troops from the UK, the US, Canada and countless other countries were preparing to sacrifice everything for the noblest cause the world has ever known. Men the age my boys are now were hours away from death. Heroes is not an adequate enough word for them. The least we can do is honour their memory now and always.
My grandfather was in his very early twenties, he went to Normandy and later found himself liberating Bergen-Belsen. I remember him fondly today.
Incidentally, whilst he never had much time for Germans after that, he like so many of his generation saw the EU/UN/NATO as critical to 'never again'. I remember that ,whenever Brexit descends into jingoism.
This is one lesson from British History.
Very much like Churchill. The Brexiter understanding of history carries hallmarks of the "Ladybird Books" version.
@AlastairMeeks what do you reckon to my scenario. Checkmate in three moves for the no deal Brexiteers?
First the No Dealer has to get to be Prime Minister. One unnoticed part of the 1922 Committee's timetable is that the new Conservative leader gets to test support while Parliament is still sitting. But let's assume that step is passed.
The EU is not going to be able to negotiate before 31 October because the new administration after the EU elections will not yet be in place. This simple objection has not yet been put to any of the Fantasy Island candidates claiming that it can all be done by then, so what they are saying in effect is No Deal. You would hope one of the journalists could manage to elicit an answer on this point.
But let's assume that question goes unasked. The Brexit party so far have indicated that they will not be standing aside from fighting the Conservatives. Nigel Farage has a long history of going back on his word, so I accept that might happen, but it's not particularly to be expected. Nor could any Conservative leader rely on him keeping his word if he changed it again.
Moreover, there are large numbers of Conservative MPs who do not accept No Deal as an acceptable outcome. They won't stay silent. The election will be dominated by stories of the Conservative party riven by splits.
Further, if the right unites, the Remain vote will unite too. Last time it happened behind Labour. It might again, or it might this time coalesce behind the Lib Dems, as in the EU elections. Saboteurs don't want to be crushed.
So no, I don't expect this particularly. Though everything is possible.
Noise from MPs during the election is managed by the manifesto, public statements to avoid a BXP challenger and MPs keeping quiet to save their own necks. MPs do not like to lose their seats.
The remain vote is unlikely to unite in my opinion.
Mr. Streeter, you're upset that someone is remembering D-Day?
It should be remembered. If it had failed, then Europe today would be in a far worse state.
D-Day should be remembered. A reasonable point, though, is that many of the different commemorations of the war seem to be continual in the last few years, at a moment when Britain needs to be urgently engaged with the present.
Although I also then don't think it's a coincidence that the particular memories it's engaging with are buttressing Brexit, I also think the wishes of the surviving veterans on this topic should be paramount ; and I'm sure most of them would like the ceremonies to continue for at least the next five years or so.
From what I’ve seen and heard veterans of WW2 are actually anti brexit as it negates everything they fought for and reflects the views of past politicians who actually served in it.
Yes, this is a common view among veterans, but a connection you'll hardly ever see drawn in the pages of the Daily Mail, Telegraph or Sun, where the commemorations are often invoked for political purposes.
On topic and a bit random, but if there were an election in the not too distant future, do we think Stephen Lloyd would hold on to Eastbourne as an independent?
I have to raise an eyebrow when certain PBers wish to diminish the memorializing of hugely important global dates within living memory.
The foundation of post war liberal democracies lies in the triumph over the WWII axis forces. The allied success and the freedom shield that we have enjoyed for several generations is not to lightly regarded like some long forgotten reality show.
Our PB community is but one small microcosm of the freedoms that flowed from the massive sacrifice that the golden generation gave. Remembering the past does not mean not looking forward to the future. They are not mutually exclusive.
However the present and future generations should understand where their freedoms flowed from and that it has never been a cost free option.
True, but equally there is more to British history than WWII. I have a sense that intense nostalgia for our finest hour holds us back. If we could remember other lessons from our history, we might rediscover a broader identity that enables the country to move forward.
Indeed WWII is but a patchwork of vastly significant dates down the generations. 200 years ago the focus would be firmly on the triumph of allied forces over Napoleon.
Neither is this "nostalgia". This is not John Major's warm beer and midwife cycling down country lanes. This is the very essence of why we became the nation we are. We have a broad identity because of these historical landmarks. In particular we did not fall prey to the cult and evil of Nazism and the crushing of the individual over the all pervasiveness of the fascist state.
Indeed. Critics of "Brexit history" have it the wrong way round. It is not that Brexit is appealing because of hankering for an idealised past. It is that we never suffered what the EU has ensured never returned. We alone (pace the Channel Islands) were not invaded or ruled by either a Nazi or communist dictatorship within living memory.
On topic and a bit random, but if there were an election in the not too distant future, do we think Stephen Lloyd would hold on to Eastbourne as an independent?
That would depend on whether (a) the Conservatives or (b) the Lib Dems stood aside for him. On the assumption that neither of them did, my expectation is that he would lose his seat, but who to would be unclear.
Indeed. Critics of "Brexit history" have it the wrong way round. It is not that Brexit is appealing because of hankering for an idealised past. It is that we never suffered what the EU has ensured never returned. We alone (pace the Channel Islands) were not invaded or ruled by either a Nazi or communist dictatorship within living memory.
Sweden, Ireland, and arguably Portugal are immediate EU counter-examples.
On topic and a bit random, but if there were an election in the not too distant future, do we think Stephen Lloyd would hold on to Eastbourne as an independent?
Broxtowe looks like an interesting fight between Soubry, Tories and Labour also.
Mr. Oracle, the Second Punic War teaches us that a sound constitutional arrangement is critical to success or failure. The EU's behaviour over decades has been to seek one size fits all solutions, at odds with member-states particular economic, demographic, or cultural diversity.
The EU (both through decision-making necessity and the ideological drive of its most fervent believers) will continue to integrate ever more, aggregating greater powers to the centre at the cost of the democratically accountable powers of nation-states.
This will, sooner or later, cause a rupture. The degree of integration that has occurred by then will cause said break to be intensely painful.
Which part of that do you disagree with?
It's a shame that reforming is a dead duck. I would've voted Remain had I thought any kind of change to loosen rather than tighten the level of integration was credible. But it wasn't, and it isn't.
Indeed. Critics of "Brexit history" have it the wrong way round. It is not that Brexit is appealing because of hankering for an idealised past. It is that we never suffered what the EU has ensured never returned. We alone (pace the Channel Islands) were not invaded or ruled by either a Nazi or communist dictatorship within living memory.
Sweden, Ireland, and arguably Portugal are immediate EU counter-examples.
Portugal suffered dictatorship without the war; Ireland has its long history of being subject to English rule. Sweden is the exception here, without the anti-EU sentiment common in Norway and to some extent Denmark.
Mr. Oracle, the Second Punic War teaches us that a sound constitutional arrangement is critical to success or failure. The EU's behaviour over decades has been to seek one size fits all solutions, at odds with member-states particular economic, demographic, or cultural diversity.
The EU (both through decision-making necessity and the ideological drive of its most fervent believers) will continue to integrate ever more, aggregating greater powers to the centre at the cost of the democratically accountable powers of nation-states.
This will, sooner or later, cause a rupture. The degree of integration that has occurred by then will cause said break to be intensely painful.
Which part of that do you disagree with?
It's a shame that reforming is a dead duck. I would've voted Remain had I thought any kind of change to loosen rather than tighten the level of integration was credible. But it wasn't, and it isn't.
Yesterday was instructive for anyone wanting to see how the Labour Party evolves from here.
According to the cancer-supporting members yesterday was a triumph. Rather than bend his life-long and always flawless principles by attending the state visit as invited, Jezbollah instead boycotted it and gave a foaming at the mouth rant to the protest crowd. Instead of commemorating our shared sacrifice in blood he chose to shat on it from the stage.
And in doing so the Corbynites cheered him on - its FANTASTIC that instead of acting like a Prime Minister in waiting he acted like a sad old man howling at the moon in self-righteous petulance. Its PERFECT that he stood up to the neo-liberal and boycotted. Once Corbyn leads Labour to the inevitable 704 seat majority in the next general election, all Corbyn has to do is address the protest rally outside 1,600 Pennsylvania Avenue he chose to organise rather than meet the President inside - address the rally and the neolibs will FALL.
A Wazzock leading the party. Wazzocks inside the party cheering on the cretinous stupidity of turning 119 years of socialist struggle for power into a Socialist Worker protest.
I for one cannot wait for the divorce to happen.
My politics is not yours but your call above is spot on about Corbyn. What surprised me yesterday was Lady Nugee making an equal fool of herself on the same issue. Totally clueless..
How Corbyn can be so crass as to make his spittle-flecked rant in Trafalgar Square AFTER it became known he had asked for a meeting with Trump is beyond me.
Labour: World-class hypocrisy since 1900....
Given that Trump ihas been proved to be an inveterate liar has it actually been confirmed that Corbyn asked for a meeting? Even though I can't stand the man it seems an odd thing to do.
I have to raise an eyebrow when certain PBers wish to diminish the memorializing of hugely important global dates within living memory.
The foundation of post war liberal democracies lies in the triumph over the WWII axis forces. The allied success and the freedom shield that we have enjoyed for several generations is not to lightly regarded like some long forgotten reality show.
Our PB community is but one small microcosm of the freedoms that flowed from the massive sacrifice that the golden generation gave. Remembering the past does not mean not looking forward to the future. They are not mutually exclusive.
However the present and future generations should understand where their freedoms flowed from and that it has never been a cost free option.
True, but equally there is more to British history than WWII. I have a sense that intense nostalgia for our finest hour holds us back. If we could remember other lessons from our history, we might rediscover a broader identity that enables the country to move forward.
Indeed WWII is but a patchwork of vastly significant dates down the generations. 200 years ago the focus would be firmly on the triumph of allied forces over Napoleon.
Neither is this "nostalgia". This is not John Major's warm beer and midwife cycling down country lanes. This is the very essence of why we became the nation we are. We have a broad identity because of these historical landmarks. In particular we did not fall prey to the cult and evil of Nazism and the crushing of the individual over the all pervasiveness of the fascist state.
Indeed. Critics of "Brexit history" have it the wrong way round. It is not that Brexit is appealing because of hankering for an idealised past. It is that we never suffered what the EU has ensured never returned. We alone (pace the Channel Islands) were not invaded or ruled by either a Nazi or communist dictatorship within living memory.
This is true, but it also works two ways ; because of that not only do we have different fears from continental countries, but our more affirmatory self-image is built from different things. Fears leave room for neurosis as well as the sensible precaution of a collective european project, and self-affirmation leaves room for jingoism and a sense of superiority as well as healthier self-identity.
@AlastairMeeks what do you reckon to my scenario. Checkmate in three moves for the no deal Brexiteers?
First the No Dealer has to get to be Prime Minister. One unnoticed part of the 1922 Committee's timetable is that the new Conservative leader gets to test support while Parliament is still sitting. But let's assume that step is passed.
The EU is not going to be able to negotiate before 31 October because the new administration after the EU elections will not yet be in place. This simple objection has not yet been put to any of the Fantasy Island candidates claiming that it can all be done by then, so what they are saying in effect is No Deal. You would hope one of the journalists could manage to elicit an answer on this point.
But let's assume that question goes unasked. The Brexit party so far have indicated that they will not be standing aside from fighting the Conservatives. Nigel Farage has a long history of going back on his word, so I accept that might happen, but it's not particularly to be expected. Nor could any Conservative leader rely on him keeping his word if he changed it again.
Moreover, there are large numbers of Conservative MPs who do not accept No Deal as an acceptable outcome. They won't stay silent. The election will be dominated by stories of the Conservative party riven by splits.
Further, if the right unites, the Remain vote will unite too. Last time it happened behind Labour. It might again, or it might this time coalesce behind the Lib Dems, as in the EU elections. Saboteurs don't want to be crushed.
So no, I don't expect this particularly. Though everything is possible.
Noise from MPs during the election is managed by the manifesto, public statements to avoid a BXP challenger and MPs keeping quiet to save their own necks. MPs do not like to lose their seats.
The remain vote is unlikely to unite in my opinion.
Given that the remain vote is currently the Lib Dems whatever became of Chuk and the green party I can easily see a pact between them if a forthcoming election.
Scotland it doesn't matter as the SNP will win there anyway and Plaid will do the same in Wales.
The big question is what does Labour do (and remember Labour can't win a majority as the SNP have destroyed that option)..
On topic and a bit random, but if there were an election in the not too distant future, do we think Stephen Lloyd would hold on to Eastbourne as an independent?
That would depend on whether (a) the Conservatives or (b) the Lib Dems stood aside for him. On the assumption that neither of them did, my expectation is that he would lose his seat, but who to would be unclear.
Obviously I'm prejudiced, but I'd like to think the good people of Eastbourne would reward him for his honesty. It's interesting to wonder just how much attention people pay to the actions of their own MP.
Indeed. Critics of "Brexit history" have it the wrong way round. It is not that Brexit is appealing because of hankering for an idealised past. It is that we never suffered what the EU has ensured never returned. We alone (pace the Channel Islands) were not invaded or ruled by either a Nazi or communist dictatorship within living memory.
Sweden, Ireland, and arguably Portugal are immediate EU counter-examples.
Ireland was occupied by the British. Portugal had Salazar.
On topic and a bit random, but if there were an election in the not too distant future, do we think Stephen Lloyd would hold on to Eastbourne as an independent?
That would depend on whether (a) the Conservatives or (b) the Lib Dems stood aside for him. On the assumption that neither of them did, my expectation is that he would lose his seat, but who to would be unclear.
Obviously I'm prejudiced, but I'd like to think the good people of Eastbourne would reward him for his honesty. It's interesting to wonder just how much attention people pay to the actions of their own MP.
At the moment the polling shows the Brexit Party certainly ahead of the Tories in votes and seats and another hung parliament. If the Brexit Party take the lead as Opinium shows they even get most seats in that hung parliament.
But that model probably doesn't take into account Brexit Party candidates standing against ERG Tories.
Without a pact they might just split the vote in every seat
There's monetary union (enacted or planned for the majority of members), loss of vetoes to QMV (due to Labour reneging upon a manifesto commitment to a referendum), banking union, and repeated murmurings about introducing EU-level taxes and/or tax harmonisation.
The answer of the Brussels bureaucrat to every question is 'more Europe'.
But identities are not swiftly dissolved in bureaucratic soup. Scotland, Yorkshire, Cornwall, all retain distinct identities despite centuries as part of a larger country. And sooner or later that tension will snap, and snap hard.
On topic and a bit random, but if there were an election in the not too distant future, do we think Stephen Lloyd would hold on to Eastbourne as an independent?
That would depend on whether (a) the Conservatives or (b) the Lib Dems stood aside for him. On the assumption that neither of them did, my expectation is that he would lose his seat, but who to would be unclear.
Obviously I'm prejudiced, but I'd like to think the good people of Eastbourne would reward him for his honesty. It's interesting to wonder just how much attention people pay to the actions of their own MP.
Wouldn't both Tory and Lib Dem supporters regard him as a Judas, but for different reasons?
Comments
As Simon Clarke the MSEC MP is screamingly Brexit this feels unlikely. Once we smash the old two party duopoly I am certain that all kinds of odd results will happen that will have Prof Curtice giggling away in the BBC Election Night Studio trying to explain it.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48520176
Were Hillary to have won on a minority of the popular vote, you would be silent.
If it hadn't been that, you'd be looking for another excuse. It was the Russians wot done it, the people were bamboozled by false consciousness, someone who used to be related to someone who lived next door to Trump lied. They had a bus campaign that was unfair because it was effective.
If you win the states, you become President. If you want to re-write the rules after the event to suit, you can always march and demand PR. (But only to be brought in if it's to your advantage).
Then there's the question of how the US and UK would have reacted if D-Day had failed. They both wanted to defeat Germany, but also didn't want Stalin to overrun western Europe. Might they have gone easy on the western front (using the excuse of 'preparing' another attack) to allow Germany to concentrate on the eastern front, delaying Stalin's forces whilst the US prepared Little Boy and Fat Man to knock out Germany or bring Hitler to the negotiating table?
I haven't read any authoritative info on what was planned in such an eventuality - or even if it has been acknowledged.
I further think that the data necessary to employ such models won't exist in useful or usable quantities, though. We will, however, be able to understand what happened in retrospect and why, but this will be less useful.
The foundation of post war liberal democracies lies in the triumph over the WWII axis forces. The allied success and the freedom shield that we have enjoyed for several generations is not to lightly regarded like some long forgotten reality show.
Our PB community is but one small microcosm of the freedoms that flowed from the massive sacrifice that the golden generation gave. Remembering the past does not mean not looking forward to the future. They are not mutually exclusive.
However the present and future generations should understand where their freedoms flowed from and that it has never been a cost free option.
Enoch Powell was of the view America was our enemy not our ally.
After an August of no progress in Europe, PM Boris calls a general election in September looking for a mandate for No Deal. Corbyn agrees. Parliament is dissolved.
The Brexit party steps aside from all Tory MPs supporting the manifesto, but challenges Labour, Soubry etc.
The election campaign is helpfully long, with poling day mid-October undermining this parliament's ability to oppose.
The outcome of the election is determined by FPTP. The remain vote is split as it was in May, but with the Brexit party choosing where to stand we end up with the Tories as the largest party, with a handful of Brexit party MPs providing the majority.
Bang job done, NHS sold.
Now that belief might have had value after 1945 but it has be increasingly doubtful whether that still applied after 2000.
Yet our politicians are still stuck on the 'how' of trade deals rather than consider they 'why'.
If so why wasn't the NHS sold when the Conservatives had a majority ?
All those which will be concluded at disadvantageous terms will pass unnoticed.
Few will really know that they are worse off than they could have been.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-48522401
Plenty of surviving veterans will be at Southsea today and as long as they live we remember their sacrifice to free Europe from Nazism and Fascism
Labour: World-class hypocrisy since 1900....
Well that's all ok then. If there is one thing we know about Trump is that he is consistent. His word is his bond.
You just wish they'd come out and admit that all they want to do is snuggle under the duvet and pretend that the world wasn't there.
The Conservative leader who succeeds May would be courageous to call a General Election given their current polling.
Perhaps if we counterbalanced a focus on WWII with learning about the Suez crisis we might have a more rounded national myth! [but probably I should leave interfering with the history curriculum to experts].
If she had no intention I would have expected her to say no
I suspect Penny is waiting for what happens in Peterborough and the impact any result has on MPs. and then will decide.
I'm not worrying about people marching, vague amusement is my reaction. They were asked what they wanted to achieve. Cue bemusement.
I suspect they want to feel better about themselves by showing their dislike. That dislike can verge on hate sometimes. Oh. and they're marching against that hate too.
Mr. Jonathan, it's possible but things are such that a huge range of possibilities are genuinely credible.
Bit annoyed, speaking of forecasting the future, that the Hamilton specials (4 for 12 wins this season, 19 for 14) were still suspended when I checked Ladbrokes a short time ago.
And I see no evidence that our politicians and Sir Humphreys have that.
I seriously doubt that they've been successful in promoting British interests in the trade negotiations the EU has conducted in recent decades either.
Without a pact they might just split the vote in every seat
Incidentally, whilst he never had much time for Germans after that, he like so many of his generation saw the EU/UN/NATO as critical to 'never again'. I remember that ,whenever Brexit descends into jingoism.
This is one lesson from British History.
The EU is not going to be able to negotiate before 31 October because the new administration after the EU elections will not yet be in place. This simple objection has not yet been put to any of the Fantasy Island candidates claiming that it can all be done by then, so what they are saying in effect is No Deal. You would hope one of the journalists could manage to elicit an answer on this point.
But let's assume that question goes unasked. The Brexit party so far have indicated that they will not be standing aside from fighting the Conservatives. Nigel Farage has a long history of going back on his word, so I accept that might happen, but it's not particularly to be expected. Nor could any Conservative leader rely on him keeping his word if he changed it again.
Moreover, there are large numbers of Conservative MPs who do not accept No Deal as an acceptable outcome. They won't stay silent. The election will be dominated by stories of the Conservative party riven by splits.
Further, if the right unites, the Remain vote will unite too. Last time it happened behind Labour. It might again, or it might this time coalesce behind the Lib Dems, as in the EU elections. Saboteurs don't want to be crushed.
So no, I don't expect this particularly. Though everything is possible.
I would expect, if there is a General Election, much more examination of its other policies and its potential MPs.
I don't think that would be to the advantage of the Brexit Party, so I think it would substantially underperform any polling taken now.
I expect TBP will take Posh tomorrow, though.
My guess is TBP will perform something like UKIP did in 2010 in a future GE. They'd get about 4 million votes but very few seats.
(I always thought Leave would win the referendum, the crucial piece of the jigsaw being Labour's half-hearted engagement via Corby. I thought Trump would lose, & he did lose the popular vote by some way. Despite living in the US for some years a while ago, I don't really understand its politics and rarely have any confidence in my US predictions)
Neither is this "nostalgia". This is not John Major's warm beer and midwife cycling down country lanes. This is the very essence of why we became the nation we are. We have a broad identity because of these historical landmarks. In particular we did not fall prey to the cult and evil of Nazism and the crushing of the individual over the all pervasiveness of the fascist state.
But they will be sub-optimal to say the least. But that's fine because no one will notice they are less rich than they would have been (which latter is really all the so called Project Fear forecasts said pre-Ref).
The remain vote is unlikely to unite in my opinion.
The EU (both through decision-making necessity and the ideological drive of its most fervent believers) will continue to integrate ever more, aggregating greater powers to the centre at the cost of the democratically accountable powers of nation-states.
This will, sooner or later, cause a rupture. The degree of integration that has occurred by then will cause said break to be intensely painful.
Which part of that do you disagree with?
It's a shame that reforming is a dead duck. I would've voted Remain had I thought any kind of change to loosen rather than tighten the level of integration was credible. But it wasn't, and it isn't.
Scotland it doesn't matter as the SNP will win there anyway and Plaid will do the same in Wales.
The big question is what does Labour do (and remember Labour can't win a majority as the SNP have destroyed that option)..
There's monetary union (enacted or planned for the majority of members), loss of vetoes to QMV (due to Labour reneging upon a manifesto commitment to a referendum), banking union, and repeated murmurings about introducing EU-level taxes and/or tax harmonisation.
The answer of the Brussels bureaucrat to every question is 'more Europe'.
But identities are not swiftly dissolved in bureaucratic soup. Scotland, Yorkshire, Cornwall, all retain distinct identities despite centuries as part of a larger country. And sooner or later that tension will snap, and snap hard.