One obvious combo (unless they hate each other) is Raab-McVey as the hard Brexit ticket IF they can get the backing of Baker et al. That may make it interesting in a second round contest amongst the members with Boris
The benefit of Boris is that lots of Brexit Party supporters trust him, so will return to the Tories and give him a chance to get Brexit done.
The problem of Boris is that unless he fulfills those expectations (which realistically means either No Deal or a new very favourable deal out of nowhere) then those same voters will leave again - and having had their faith let down they'll be even harder to get back.
I think the myth that Johnson is some sort of political vote machine relies on the 2008 and 2012 elections in London. I don't think people understand that the voting coalition that got him elected as Mayor in those two years has been catastrophically destroyed by his actions with regard to Brexit especially in London. I suppose it depends on the geographical distribution of the voters his personality and record repelled and those who are attracted. It may well be the case the voters he picks up are in safe Labour seats and the ones that will not vote for him are in Conservative marginals...
Actually Boris led Tories lead most in the Midlands which is full of marginals
I suppose it depends given that it is a hung parliament whether opinion poll ratings can be converted into net gains for a political party. It is no good decreasing majorities in Labour safe seats and increasing majorities in Tory held seats if the Tories don't gain much more on the ground! This applies across the country. At the last election the Tories got about 40% of the vote in Bolsover for instance, whereas Labour got over 50%. Political strategy has to be realistic not bordering on delusional.
Of Tory target seats at the next general election 3 of the top 10 they need to gain for an overall majority are in the Midlands, 3 are in the North, 2 in Scotland and 1 is in London and 1 in the South.
Surely the Queen will send for them before any confidence vote?
This is where the constitutional arguments seem to be raging. Resigning PM usually advises Queen on who to send, even if this has been signalled well beforehand through the usual channels etc etc.
May might not be able to say that Boris (to take a random example) commands the majority.
Queen will already know from soundings and civil service etc etc.
All very tricky.
Depends whether the Tory Remain crew are rock solid in any plans not to give Boris any kind of Confidence Vote. In the end I doubt they will do this. But who knows.
May tenders her resignation and says "send for Boris". Boris is leader of largest party by a longshot.
Any confidence vote can only happen surely after Boris becomes PM not beforehand. By which point he is PM. Unless Parliament can find an alternative successor (which they can't unless they send for Corbyn as Corbyn won't back anyone else) he will remain PM for the 14 days and then there will be a General Election. With Boris as PM.
D day celebrations with TM in Portsmouth tomorrow then he leaves our shores
The sooner the better
Except you didn't even know whether he was still here, so why does it make a difference?
Where on Earth did you get this idea I didn’t know he was here? It’s been wall to wall fawning coverage since the fat moron arrived. I’m perfectly aware that he’s here!
"Instead of spending billions on the NHS every year, let's give it to the EU instead"
How's that for the side of a bus?
Sunil, your support for the NHS is admirable. It is somewhat lessened by the point that your preferred option (leaving the EU) seems to have increased the possibility that it will be damaged.
No it could be damaged either way:
1) Remain - and £171 million a week (NET!) goes to the EU 2) Leave - US style privatisation (?)
So the NHS rules out a trade deal with the US. Huawei rules one out with China. Immigration stymies one with India. And our stupidity means No Deal with the EU. But at least there’s the Faeroe Islands. Anyone for blubber?
So, next election - Cons under Johnson offering Hard Brexit and Small State versus Lab under Corbyn offering Remain and Socialism.
No hiding place.
In the end Rich Remainers will go with Boris to protect their houses and gardens from being "grabbed" by Jezza!
The absolute state of that garden tax idea - makes the Tories Dementia tax look a good idea.
What's the garden tax idea ?
The shocking communist proposal to, er, make council tax more closely related to the actual value of properties rather than notional values from the early 1990s, and to abolish the current principle of having a ceiling above which no extra can be paid however palatial the property.
Not if she can't recommend a successor whom she believes commands the confidence of the House.
If she couldn't recommend her elected successor then she wouldn't be able to command a majority (the Tories would never support her in such circumstances) and she would be required to resign anyway.
Her Government might be. But where's the new PM coming from?
Lidington temporarily I imagine. Either way May couldn't stay in office.
[grits teeth] This is the UK. We do not have "acting" PMs. You can have an Acting Taoiseach in Ireland (I did not know this, but apparently you can). You can have an Acting President in the US (not an actor, btw: this is an actual title). But not in the UK.
Boris Johnson really should own a No Deal Brexit lock stock and barrel. But as alluring and deserved as they are, even his personal humiliation and perpetual disgrace are not worth the damage it will do the country.
Not if she can't recommend a successor whom she believes commands the confidence of the House.
If she couldn't recommend her elected successor then she wouldn't be able to command a majority (the Tories would never support her in such circumstances) and she would be required to resign anyway.
Her Government might be. But where's the new PM coming from?
Lidington temporarily I imagine. Either way May couldn't stay in office.
[grits teeth] This is the UK. We do not have "acting" PMs. You can have an Acting Taoiseach in Ireland (I did not know this, but apparently you can). You can have an Acting President in the US (not an actor, btw: this is an actual title). But not in the UK.
So, next election - Cons under Johnson offering Hard Brexit and Small State versus Lab under Corbyn offering Remain and Socialism.
No hiding place.
In the end Rich Remainers will go with Boris to protect their houses and gardens from being "grabbed" by Jezza!
The absolute state of that garden tax idea - makes the Tories Dementia tax look a good idea.
What's the garden tax idea ?
The shocking communist proposal to, er, make council tax more closely related to the actual value of properties rather than notional values from the early 1990s, and to abolish the current principle of having a ceiling above which no extra can be paid however palatial the property.
No ceiling is a shocking proposal. Income tax at least you can cope without a portion of your income, it gets taken out as PAYE for most people and you live off what is left. What are you supposed to do to pay for an uncapped percentage of your home? Are you going to sacrifice a room and keep the rest of the house?
So, next election - Cons under Johnson offering Hard Brexit and Small State versus Lab under Corbyn offering Remain and Socialism.
No hiding place.
In the end Rich Remainers will go with Boris to protect their houses and gardens from being "grabbed" by Jezza!
The absolute state of that garden tax idea - makes the Tories Dementia tax look a good idea.
What's the garden tax idea ?
The shocking communist proposal to, er, make council tax more closely related to the actual value of properties rather than notional values from the early 1990s, and to abolish the current principle of having a ceiling above which no extra can be paid however palatial the property.
Whatever the rights and wrongs it will be a vote loser.
So, next election - Cons under Johnson offering Hard Brexit and Small State versus Lab under Corbyn offering Remain and Socialism.
No hiding place.
In the end Rich Remainers will go with Boris to protect their houses and gardens from being "grabbed" by Jezza!
The absolute state of that garden tax idea - makes the Tories Dementia tax look a good idea.
What's the garden tax idea ?
The shocking communist proposal to, er, make council tax more closely related to the actual value of properties rather than notional values from the early 1990s, and to abolish the current principle of having a ceiling above which no extra can be paid however palatial the property.
Whatever the rights and wrongs it will be a vote loser.
Not among the c. 50% non-property owning population.
So the NHS rules out a trade deal with the US. Huawei rules one out with China. Immigration stymies one with India. And our stupidity means No Deal with the EU. But at least there’s the Faeroe Islands. Anyone for blubber?
D day celebrations with TM in Portsmouth tomorrow then he leaves our shores
The sooner the better
Except you didn't even know whether he was still here, so why does it make a difference?
Where on Earth did you get this idea I didn’t know he was here? It’s been wall to wall fawning coverage since the fat moron arrived. I’m perfectly aware that he’s here!
You asked if he was still here, making it not unreasonable to suppose you did not know he was, even though you clearly knew he had arrived.
So, next election - Cons under Johnson offering Hard Brexit and Small State versus Lab under Corbyn offering Remain and Socialism.
No hiding place.
In the end Rich Remainers will go with Boris to protect their houses and gardens from being "grabbed" by Jezza!
The absolute state of that garden tax idea - makes the Tories Dementia tax look a good idea.
What's the garden tax idea ?
The shocking communist proposal to, er, make council tax more closely related to the actual value of properties rather than notional values from the early 1990s, and to abolish the current principle of having a ceiling above which no extra can be paid however palatial the property.
Whatever the rights and wrongs it will be a vote loser.
Was Council Tax a vote loser when it replaced the poll tax?
So, next election - Cons under Johnson offering Hard Brexit and Small State versus Lab under Corbyn offering Remain and Socialism.
No hiding place.
In the end Rich Remainers will go with Boris to protect their houses and gardens from being "grabbed" by Jezza!
The absolute state of that garden tax idea - makes the Tories Dementia tax look a good idea.
What's the garden tax idea ?
The shocking communist proposal to, er, make council tax more closely related to the actual value of properties rather than notional values from the early 1990s, and to abolish the current principle of having a ceiling above which no extra can be paid however palatial the property.
Whatever the rights and wrongs it will be a vote loser.
So, next election - Cons under Johnson offering Hard Brexit and Small State versus Lab under Corbyn offering Remain and Socialism.
No hiding place.
In the end Rich Remainers will go with Boris to protect their houses and gardens from being "grabbed" by Jezza!
The absolute state of that garden tax idea - makes the Tories Dementia tax look a good idea.
What's the garden tax idea ?
The shocking communist proposal to, er, make council tax more closely related to the actual value of properties rather than notional values from the early 1990s, and to abolish the current principle of having a ceiling above which no extra can be paid however palatial the property.
Whatever the rights and wrongs it will be a vote loser.
Not among the c. 50% non-property owning population.
Nor amongst those who own flats. Abolish Council Tax could be a vote winner. It is crippling for those on low incomes. Although the wealthy London media (aka the elite) will scream blue murder.
I didn't think I was an expert, but I seem to be compared with most of the commentary!
It's very simple:
The PM remains PM until Her Maj appoints someone else. If the Conservative Party, as the party currently in office, changes leader, then in normal circumstances Her Maj would simply appoint the new leader as PM, on the not unreasonable assumption that the new leader would still command the confidence of the House, were this to be tested. If it's not tested, or it is tested and the new government wins a confidence vote, then the new leader remains PM.
If a confidence vote is lost, then it's also very simple. The key point is that Her Majesty doesn't go around appointing candidates at random, or because they happen to be Leader of the Opposition, or Deputy Leader of the government party. Instead, her officials 'take soundings', to see if anyone is likely to command the confidence of the House. If it looks as though someone is able to form a government which would, if tested, command the confidence of the House, then that person gets appointed PM. If not, and if this situation persists for 14 days, the outgoing PM remains in office for the interim and a GE ensues.
In the current parliament, this means in practice that Corbyn has almost no chance of becoming PM, even temporarily, because it's virtually inconceivable that the 'soundings' would indicate that he would command the confidence of the House. It also could mean that the new Conservative leader wouldn't become PM, if a chunk of Tory MPs resigned the whip and indicated (in those famous 'soundings' again) that they wouldn't have confidence in the new leader.
So, next election - Cons under Johnson offering Hard Brexit and Small State versus Lab under Corbyn offering Remain and Socialism.
No hiding place.
In the end Rich Remainers will go with Boris to protect their houses and gardens from being "grabbed" by Jezza!
The absolute state of that garden tax idea - makes the Tories Dementia tax look a good idea.
What's the garden tax idea ?
The shocking communist proposal to, er, make council tax more closely related to the actual value of properties rather than notional values from the early 1990s, and to abolish the current principle of having a ceiling above which no extra can be paid however palatial the property.
Whatever the rights and wrongs it will be a vote loser.
Not among the c. 50% non-property owning population.
Renters will still have to pay the tax. Whether directly or indirectly.
"Instead of spending billions on the NHS every year, let's give it to the EU instead"
How's that for the side of a bus?
Sunil, your support for the NHS is admirable. It is somewhat lessened by the point that your preferred option (leaving the EU) seems to have increased the possibility that it will be damaged.
No it could be damaged either way:
1) Remain - and £171 million a week (NET!) goes to the EU 2) Leave - US style privatisation (?)
That £171m is not money the NHS is currently getting; so Remaining and continuing to pay it to the EU doesn't damage the NHS, it just doesn't boost NHS spending either.
(Btw... NHS spending could be boosted by the government at any time should it be so minded.)
I checked with betfair on a recorded telephone line. They said that the bet when does May leave is when a new leader is appointed. Odd but there you are. I have money on July as a result. For a long time the market was under a false impression and I think betfair needs to be much clearer up front on these definitions
I didn't think I was an expert, but I seem to be compared with most of the commentary!
It's very simple:
The PM remains PM until Her Maj appoints someone else. If the Conservative Party, as the party currently in office, changes leader, then in normal circumstances Her Maj would simply appoint the new leader as PM, on the not unreasonable assumption that the new leader would still command the confidence of the House, were this to be tested. If it's not tested, or it is tested and the new government wins a confidence vote, then the new leader remains PM.
If a confidence vote is lost, then it's also very simple. The key point is that Her Majesty doesn't go around appointing candidates at random, or because they happen to be Leader of the Opposition, or Deputy Leader of the government party. Instead, her officials 'take soundings', to see if anyone is likely to command the confidence of the House. If it looks as though someone is able to form a government which would, if tested, command the confidence of the House, then that person gets appointed PM. If not, and if this situation persists for 14 days, the outgoing PM remains in office for the interim and a GE ensues.
In the current parliament, this means in practice that Corbyn has almost no chance of becoming PM, even temporarily, because it's virtually inconceivable that the 'soundings' would indicate that he would command the confidence of the House. It also could mean that the new Conservative leader wouldn't become PM, if a chunk of Tory MPs resigned the whip and indicated (in those famous 'soundings' again) that they wouldn't have confidence in the new leader.
I checked with betfair on a recorded telephone line. They said that the bet when does May leave is when a new leader is appointed. Odd but there you are. I have money on July as a result. For a long time the market was under a false impression and I think betfair needs to be much clearer up front on these definitions
The rules definition of that market are an absolute outrage. Incorrectly defined, but yes it probably is July.
So, next election - Cons under Johnson offering Hard Brexit and Small State versus Lab under Corbyn offering Remain and Socialism.
No hiding place.
In the end Rich Remainers will go with Boris to protect their houses and gardens from being "grabbed" by Jezza!
The absolute state of that garden tax idea - makes the Tories Dementia tax look a good idea.
What's the garden tax idea ?
The shocking communist proposal to, er, make council tax more closely related to the actual value of properties rather than notional values from the early 1990s, and to abolish the current principle of having a ceiling above which no extra can be paid however palatial the property.
Whatever the rights and wrongs it will be a vote loser.
Was Council Tax a vote loser when it replaced the poll tax?
D day celebrations with TM in Portsmouth tomorrow then he leaves our shores
The sooner the better
Except you didn't even know whether he was still here, so why does it make a difference?
Where on Earth did you get this idea I didn’t know he was here? It’s been wall to wall fawning coverage since the fat moron arrived. I’m perfectly aware that he’s here!
You asked if he was still here, making it not unreasonable to suppose you did not know he was, even though you clearly knew he had arrived.
So, next election - Cons under Johnson offering Hard Brexit and Small State versus Lab under Corbyn offering Remain and Socialism.
No hiding place.
In the end Rich Remainers will go with Boris to protect their houses and gardens from being "grabbed" by Jezza!
The absolute state of that garden tax idea - makes the Tories Dementia tax look a good idea.
What's the garden tax idea ?
The shocking communist proposal to, er, make council tax more closely related to the actual value of properties rather than notional values from the early 1990s, and to abolish the current principle of having a ceiling above which no extra can be paid however palatial the property.
Whatever the rights and wrongs it will be a vote loser.
Not among the c. 50% non-property owning population.
Renters will still have to pay the tax. Whether directly or indirectly.
Indeed but they are also going to be benefiting from the increased public spending more than well-off property owners like me (and I suspect you).
I know I am not going to convince you it's the right thing to do but don't expect it to be a massive vote loser among typical labour supporters.
I do acknowledge it partly depends on how well/badly it's explained - see Dementia Tax (another sensible policy) for how not to do it.
I didn't think I was an expert, but I seem to be compared with most of the commentary!
It's very simple:
The PM remains PM until Her Maj appoints someone else. If the Conservative Party, as the party currently in office, changes leader, then in normal circumstances Her Maj would simply appoint the new leader as PM, on the not unreasonable assumption that the new leader would still command the confidence of the House, were this to be tested. If it's not tested, or it is tested and the new government wins a confidence vote, then the new leader remains PM.
If a confidence vote is lost, then it's also very simple. The key point is that Her Majesty doesn't go around appointing candidates at random, or because they happen to be Leader of the Opposition, or Deputy Leader of the government party. Instead, her officials 'take soundings', to see if anyone is likely to command the confidence of the House. If it looks as though someone is able to form a government which would, if tested, command the confidence of the House, then that person gets appointed PM. If not, and if this situation persists for 14 days, the outgoing PM remains in office for the interim and a GE ensues.
In the current parliament, this means in practice that Corbyn has almost no chance of becoming PM, even temporarily, because it's virtually inconceivable that the 'soundings' would indicate that he would command the confidence of the House. It also could mean that the new Conservative leader wouldn't become PM, if a chunk of Tory MPs resigned the whip and indicated (in those famous 'soundings' again) that they wouldn't have confidence in the new leader.
Everyone got it?
Thanks Richard. I didn't think I was an expert either. But I couldn't be arsed to type all that out. And wouldn't have done it as eloquently.
So, next election - Cons under Johnson offering Hard Brexit and Small State versus Lab under Corbyn offering Remain and Socialism.
No hiding place.
In the end Rich Remainers will go with Boris to protect their houses and gardens from being "grabbed" by Jezza!
The absolute state of that garden tax idea - makes the Tories Dementia tax look a good idea.
What's the garden tax idea ?
The shocking communist proposal to, er, make council tax more closely related to the actual value of properties rather than notional values from the early 1990s, and to abolish the current principle of having a ceiling above which no extra can be paid however palatial the property.
Whatever the rights and wrongs it will be a vote loser.
Not among the c. 50% non-property owning population.
The land/property stuff is a report of recommendations to Labour. Here:
I shall be returning to this subject tomorrow I reckon when there are more of us about, but this jumped out at me straight off:
"To provide a reasonable degree of stability for renters, particularly those with young children, we recommend that the permitted grounds for eviction within the first three years of a tenancy should be more limited than they are under the reformed system in Scotland, excluding, for instance, a right to repossess the property in order to renovate or sell."
Going further than Scottish reforms.
New tenants get 3 years, even if a landlord wants to sell (on open market - they can sell to another landlord).
So, next election - Cons under Johnson offering Hard Brexit and Small State versus Lab under Corbyn offering Remain and Socialism.
No hiding place.
In the end Rich Remainers will go with Boris to protect their houses and gardens from being "grabbed" by Jezza!
The absolute state of that garden tax idea - makes the Tories Dementia tax look a good idea.
What's the garden tax idea ?
The shocking communist proposal to, er, make council tax more closely related to the actual value of properties rather than notional values from the early 1990s, and to abolish the current principle of having a ceiling above which no extra can be paid however palatial the property.
Whatever the rights and wrongs it will be a vote loser.
Not among the c. 50% non-property owning population.
Even those not owning property have family who do and it would impact them
So, next election - Cons under Johnson offering Hard Brexit and Small State versus Lab under Corbyn offering Remain and Socialism.
No hiding place.
In the end Rich Remainers will go with Boris to protect their houses and gardens from being "grabbed" by Jezza!
The absolute state of that garden tax idea - makes the Tories Dementia tax look a good idea.
What's the garden tax idea ?
The shocking communist proposal to, er, make council tax more closely related to the actual value of properties rather than notional values from the early 1990s, and to abolish the current principle of having a ceiling above which no extra can be paid however palatial the property.
Whatever the rights and wrongs it will be a vote loser.
Not among the c. 50% non-property owning population.
What about the other 50% ?
Let me explain that the people who lose out from tax changes tend to be angrier than those who gain from tax changes are grateful.
Bozo is next PM by a process of whose less horrific .
There are no good choices. A new PM has to be a Brexiter, if only to stop the constant whining of “ if only they really believed in Brexit”.
The choices on offer are dreadful . As an ardent Remainer I hate Bozo but truly despise Raab.
I’d prefer Gove but he won’t win against Johnson . Goves only chance is against the born again Brexiters like Hunt and Javid but the maths mean the final two will definitely have Johnson so barring something sensational he may aswell start arranging the removal men.
Bozo is next PM by a process of whose less horrific .
There are no good choices. A new PM has to be a Brexiter, if only to stop the constant whining of “ if only they really believed in Brexit”.
The choices on offer are dreadful . As an ardent Remainer I hate Bozo but truly despise Raab.
I’d prefer Gove but he won’t win against Johnson . Goves only chance is against the born again Brexiters like Hunt and Javid but the maths mean the final two will definitely have Johnson so barring something sensational he may aswell start arranging the removal men.
This might all be wrapped up in a couple of weeks... Followed by a quick Summer break and a September/October general election.
I checked with betfair on a recorded telephone line. They said that the bet when does May leave is when a new leader is appointed. Odd but there you are. I have money on July as a result. For a long time the market was under a false impression and I think betfair needs to be much clearer up front on these definitions
The rules definition of that market are an absolute outrage. Incorrectly defined, but yes it probably is July.
I left that market when it was exposed as a bit odd.
I presume NHS hospital beds are manufactured and supplied by private companies and not civil Servants? If a supplier was American and made good quality affordable beds would patients care?
If it wasn’t for private suppliers and contractors including equipment and drug providers the NHS would collapse tomorrow. Some of those drugs and pieces of equipment will have been developed in the US by American companies.
And as long as the NHS is free at the point of use - so what?
So, next election - Cons under Johnson offering Hard Brexit and Small State versus Lab under Corbyn offering Remain and Socialism.
No hiding place.
In the end Rich Remainers will go with Boris to protect their houses and gardens from being "grabbed" by Jezza!
The absolute state of that garden tax idea - makes the Tories Dementia tax look a good idea.
What's the garden tax idea ?
The shocking communist proposal to, er, make council tax more closely related to the actual value of properties rather than notional values from the early 1990s, and to abolish the current principle of having a ceiling above which no extra can be paid however palatial the property.
Whatever the rights and wrongs it will be a vote loser.
Not among the c. 50% non-property owning population.
What about the other 50% ?
Let me explain that the people who lose out from tax changes tend to be angrier than those who gain from tax changes are grateful.
No matter how angry, they still only get one vote each.
Still it's a pointless argument... if you think it's a serious vote loser, you've got no fear of it every being implemented.
D day celebrations with TM in Portsmouth tomorrow then he leaves our shores
The sooner the better
Except you didn't even know whether he was still here, so why does it make a difference?
Where on Earth did you get this idea I didn’t know he was here? It’s been wall to wall fawning coverage since the fat moron arrived. I’m perfectly aware that he’s here!
You asked if he was still here, making it not unreasonable to suppose you did not know he was, even though you clearly knew he had arrived.
Are we still paying for his upkeep?
Apparently his visit has generated considerable extra income from increased services and leisure activity
Bozo is next PM by a process of whose less horrific .
There are no good choices. A new PM has to be a Brexiter, if only to stop the constant whining of “ if only they really believed in Brexit”.
The choices on offer are dreadful . As an ardent Remainer I hate Bozo but truly despise Raab.
I’d prefer Gove but he won’t win against Johnson . Goves only chance is against the born again Brexiters like Hunt and Javid but the maths mean the final two will definitely have Johnson so barring something sensational he may aswell start arranging the removal men.
Yes, but. That wouldn't stop it. Pretty soon they wouldn't believe in Brexit "enough ". We would be into heresy by thought when there was contact with reality.
So, next election - Cons under Johnson offering Hard Brexit and Small State versus Lab under Corbyn offering Remain and Socialism.
No hiding place.
In the end Rich Remainers will go with Boris to protect their houses and gardens from being "grabbed" by Jezza!
The absolute state of that garden tax idea - makes the Tories Dementia tax look a good idea.
What's the garden tax idea ?
The shocking communist proposal to, er, make council tax more closely related to the actual value of properties rather than notional values from the early 1990s, and to abolish the current principle of having a ceiling above which no extra can be paid however palatial the property.
Whatever the rights and wrongs it will be a vote loser.
Not among the c. 50% non-property owning population.
Even those not owning property have family who do and it would impact them
I think it will be judged by voters in the round - it depends what the extra atxes are going to be spent on. 'Tax the rich' is never likely to be a net vote loser imo.
...The PM remains PM until Her Maj appoints someone else...
I think it's possible for the PM to resign without the Monarch's consent. It's definitely possible for a PM to die without the Monarch's consent. It is possible to not have a PM and the Government remain functioning for some time, although things get progressively more difficult without one.[1]
But apart from that, yes your analysis seems correct.
[1] I think you need a PM to 1) legally order a nuclear launch, 2) chair the Cabinet, 3) attend the European Council, 4) chair the National Security Council, 5) appoint the Ministers(?)
So, next election - Cons under Johnson offering Hard Brexit and Small State versus Lab under Corbyn offering Remain and Socialism.
No hiding place.
In the end Rich Remainers will go with Boris to protect their houses and gardens from being "grabbed" by Jezza!
The absolute state of that garden tax idea - makes the Tories Dementia tax look a good idea.
What's the garden tax idea ?
The shocking communist proposal to, er, make council tax more closely related to the actual value of properties rather than notional values from the early 1990s, and to abolish the current principle of having a ceiling above which no extra can be paid however palatial the property.
Whatever the rights and wrongs it will be a vote loser.
Not among the c. 50% non-property owning population.
So, next election - Cons under Johnson offering Hard Brexit and Small State versus Lab under Corbyn offering Remain and Socialism.
No hiding place.
In the end Rich Remainers will go with Boris to protect their houses and gardens from being "grabbed" by Jezza!
The absolute state of that garden tax idea - makes the Tories Dementia tax look a good idea.
What's the garden tax idea ?
The shocking communist proposal to, er, make council tax more closely related to the actual value of properties rather than notional values from the early 1990s, and to abolish the current principle of having a ceiling above which no extra can be paid however palatial the property.
Whatever the rights and wrongs it will be a vote loser.
Not among the c. 50% non-property owning population.
The majority of voters still own property
I think there are more serious barriers to Labour winning the next GE than this mooted property tax.
So, next election - Cons under Johnson offering Hard Brexit and Small State versus Lab under Corbyn offering Remain and Socialism.
No hiding place.
In the end Rich Remainers will go with Boris to protect their houses and gardens from being "grabbed" by Jezza!
The absolute state of that garden tax idea - makes the Tories Dementia tax look a good idea.
What's the garden tax idea ?
The shocking communist proposal to, er, make council tax more closely related to the actual value of properties rather than notional values from the early 1990s, and to abolish the current principle of having a ceiling above which no extra can be paid however palatial the property.
Whatever the rights and wrongs it will be a vote loser.
Not among the c. 50% non-property owning population.
What about the other 50% ?
Let me explain that the people who lose out from tax changes tend to be angrier than those who gain from tax changes are grateful.
No matter how angry, they still only get one vote each.
Still it's a pointless argument... if you think it's a serious vote loser, you've got no fear of it every being implemented.
Angry (or fearful) people are more likely to vote or change their vote.
So, next election - Cons under Johnson offering Hard Brexit and Small State versus Lab under Corbyn offering Remain and Socialism.
No hiding place.
In the end Rich Remainers will go with Boris to protect their houses and gardens from being "grabbed" by Jezza!
The absolute state of that garden tax idea - makes the Tories Dementia tax look a good idea.
What's the garden tax idea ?
The shocking communist proposal to, er, make council tax more closely related to the actual value of properties rather than notional values from the early 1990s, and to abolish the current principle of having a ceiling above which no extra can be paid however palatial the property.
Whatever the rights and wrongs it will be a vote loser.
Not among the c. 50% non-property owning population.
Even those not owning property have family who do and it would impact them
I think it will be judged by voters in the round - it depends what the extra atxes are going to be spent on. 'Tax the rich' is never likely to be a net vote loser imo.
Not when the rich are ordinary home owners and of course, Corbyn's tax the rich includes confiscating share value from millions of ordinary citizens pensions including nationalisation by confiscation
...The PM remains PM until Her Maj appoints someone else...
I think it's possible for the PM to resign without the Monarch's consent. It's definitely possible for a PM to die without the Monarch's consent. It is possible to not have a PM and the Government remain functioning for some time, although things get progressively more difficult without one.[1]
But apart from that, yes your analysis seems correct.
[1] I think you need a PM to 1) legally order a nuclear launch, 2) chair the Cabinet, 3) attend the European Council, 4) chair the National Security Council, 5) appoint the Ministers(?)
Yes, but in that circumstance what would normally happen is that the official through their 'soundings' would try to find someone acceptable to the House as a temporary PM. Usually this would be straightforward because the ruling party would come up with an acting leader to fulfil that role. Obviously in a hung parliament it's potentially more tricky.
D day celebrations with TM in Portsmouth tomorrow then he leaves our shores
The sooner the better
Except you didn't even know whether he was still here, so why does it make a difference?
Where on Earth did you get this idea I didn’t know he was here? It’s been wall to wall fawning coverage since the fat moron arrived. I’m perfectly aware that he’s here!
You asked if he was still here, making it not unreasonable to suppose you did not know he was, even though you clearly knew he had arrived.
Are we still paying for his upkeep?
Apparently his visit has generated considerable extra income from increased services and leisure activity
...The PM remains PM until Her Maj appoints someone else...
I think it's possible for the PM to resign without the Monarch's consent. It's definitely possible for a PM to die without the Monarch's consent. It is possible to not have a PM and the Government remain functioning for some time, although things get progressively more difficult without one.[1]
But apart from that, yes your analysis seems correct.
[1] I think you need a PM to 1) legally order a nuclear launch, 2) chair the Cabinet, 3) attend the European Council, 4) chair the National Security Council, 5) appoint the Ministers(?)
The Monarch can probably do all those. She can certainly chair a cabinet and Ministers are officially appointed by her
I presume NHS hospital beds are manufactured and supplied by private companies and not civil Servants? If a supplier was American and made good quality affordable beds would patients care?
If it wasn’t for private suppliers and contractors including equipment and drug providers the NHS would collapse tomorrow. Some of those drugs and pieces of equipment will have been developed in the US by American companies.
And as long as the NHS is free at the point of use - so what?
I think I have explained this to you before, and may have to do so again, but the issue is whether (as part of a deal) the NHS is forced to source from a limited number of suppliers. If that happens, then those suppliers would collectively force up prices to the detriment of the NHS.
So, next election - Cons under Johnson offering Hard Brexit and Small State versus Lab under Corbyn offering Remain and Socialism.
No hiding place.
In the end Rich Remainers will go with Boris to protect their houses and gardens from being "grabbed" by Jezza!
The absolute state of that garden tax idea - makes the Tories Dementia tax look a good idea.
What's the garden tax idea ?
Replaces council tax. I'll need to ask my Dad for some inheritance upfront like @Charles if its as bad as being made out lol.
I presume when properties were valued for council tax in 1991 the valuation and banding took into account whether the property had a garden. So we already have a garden tax!
Ask people if they should pay more in property tax annually than a billionaire oligarch living in a £70 million apartment at One Hyde Park - and most people would say no. But that is the system we have now as said oligarch with his single person discount pays a mere £1200 a year in council tax to the very generously resourced City of Westminster!
Labour’s proposed new tax proportionate to property values and charged on owners would in fact see most people paying less - outside inner London of course!
D day celebrations with TM in Portsmouth tomorrow then he leaves our shores
The sooner the better
Except you didn't even know whether he was still here, so why does it make a difference?
Where on Earth did you get this idea I didn’t know he was here? It’s been wall to wall fawning coverage since the fat moron arrived. I’m perfectly aware that he’s here!
You asked if he was still here, making it not unreasonable to suppose you did not know he was, even though you clearly knew he had arrived.
Are we still paying for his upkeep?
Apparently his visit has generated considerable extra income from increased services and leisure activity
So, next election - Cons under Johnson offering Hard Brexit and Small State versus Lab under Corbyn offering Remain and Socialism.
No hiding place.
In the end Rich Remainers will go with Boris to protect their houses and gardens from being "grabbed" by Jezza!
The absolute state of that garden tax idea - makes the Tories Dementia tax look a good idea.
What's the garden tax idea ?
The shocking communist proposal to, er, make council tax more closely related to the actual value of properties rather than notional values from the early 1990s, and to abolish the current principle of having a ceiling above which no extra can be paid however palatial the property.
Whatever the rights and wrongs it will be a vote loser.
Not among the c. 50% non-property owning population.
Even those not owning property have family who do and it would impact them
I think it will be judged by voters in the round - it depends what the extra atxes are going to be spent on. 'Tax the rich' is never likely to be a net vote loser imo.
Too late its already got a name - Garden Tax.
Not Mansion Tax, Not Yacht Tax, Not WAG Tax.
Garden Tax - a tax on gardens, those areas of grass and flowers which surround ordinary houses.
D day celebrations with TM in Portsmouth tomorrow then he leaves our shores
The sooner the better
Except you didn't even know whether he was still here, so why does it make a difference?
Where on Earth did you get this idea I didn’t know he was here? It’s been wall to wall fawning coverage since the fat moron arrived. I’m perfectly aware that he’s here!
You asked if he was still here, making it not unreasonable to suppose you did not know he was, even though you clearly knew he had arrived.
Are we still paying for his upkeep?
Apparently his visit has generated considerable extra income from increased services and leisure activity
...The PM remains PM until Her Maj appoints someone else...
I think it's possible for the PM to resign without the Monarch's consent. It's definitely possible for a PM to die without the Monarch's consent. It is possible to not have a PM and the Government remain functioning for some time, although things get progressively more difficult without one.[1]
But apart from that, yes your analysis seems correct.
[1] I think you need a PM to 1) legally order a nuclear launch, 2) chair the Cabinet, 3) attend the European Council, 4) chair the National Security Council, 5) appoint the Ministers(?)
The Monarch can probably do all those. She can certainly chair a cabinet and Ministers are officially appointed by her
...which is why I put a question mark for point 5.
So, next election - Cons under Johnson offering Hard Brexit and Small State versus Lab under Corbyn offering Remain and Socialism.
No hiding place.
In the end Rich Remainers will go with Boris to protect their houses and gardens from being "grabbed" by Jezza!
The absolute state of that garden tax idea - makes the Tories Dementia tax look a good idea.
What's the garden tax idea ?
Replaces council tax. I'll need to ask my Dad for some inheritance upfront like @Charles if its as bad as being made out lol.
I presume when properties were valued for council tax in 1991 the valuation and banding took into account whether the property had a garden. So we already have a garden tax!
Ask people if they should pay more in property tax annually than a billionaire oligarch living in a £70 million apartment at One Hyde Park - and most people would say no. But that is the system we have now as said oligarch with his single person discount pays a mere £1200 a year in council tax to the very generously resourced City of Westminster!
Labour’s proposed new tax proportionate to property values and charged on owners would in fact see most people paying less - outside inner London of course!
I saw a £3365 'average' bandied about somewhere - do you have the figures on each say £100k of valuation ?
D day celebrations with TM in Portsmouth tomorrow then he leaves our shores
The sooner the better
Except you didn't even know whether he was still here, so why does it make a difference?
Where on Earth did you get this idea I didn’t know he was here? It’s been wall to wall fawning coverage since the fat moron arrived. I’m perfectly aware that he’s here!
You asked if he was still here, making it not unreasonable to suppose you did not know he was, even though you clearly knew he had arrived.
Are we still paying for his upkeep?
Apparently his visit has generated considerable extra income from increased services and leisure activity
I presume NHS hospital beds are manufactured and supplied by private companies and not civil Servants? If a supplier was American and made good quality affordable beds would patients care?
If it wasn’t for private suppliers and contractors including equipment and drug providers the NHS would collapse tomorrow. Some of those drugs and pieces of equipment will have been developed in the US by American companies.
And as long as the NHS is free at the point of use - so what?
I think I have explained this to you before, and may have to do so again, but the issue is whether (as part of a deal) the NHS is forced to source from a limited number of suppliers. If that happens, then those suppliers would collectively force up prices to the detriment of the NHS.
Which would be illegal and we could fine them all their profits
So, next election - Cons under Johnson offering Hard Brexit and Small State versus Lab under Corbyn offering Remain and Socialism.
No hiding place.
In the end Rich Remainers will go with Boris to protect their houses and gardens from being "grabbed" by Jezza!
The absolute state of that garden tax idea - makes the Tories Dementia tax look a good idea.
What's the garden tax idea ?
The shocking communist proposal to, er, make council tax more closely related to the actual value of properties rather than notional values from the early 1990s, and to abolish the current principle of having a ceiling above which no extra can be paid however palatial the property.
Whatever the rights and wrongs it will be a vote loser.
Not among the c. 50% non-property owning population.
Even those not owning property have family who do and it would impact them
I think it will be judged by voters in the round - it depends what the extra atxes are going to be spent on. 'Tax the rich' is never likely to be a net vote loser imo.
Too late its already got a name - Garden Tax.
Not Mansion Tax, Not Yacht Tax, Not WAG Tax.
Garden Tax - a tax on gardens, those areas of grass and flowers which surround ordinary houses.
I've got a big garden but this wouldn't stop me voting Labour. Other things currently would but making council / property tax more progressive would be a big plus imo.
I presume NHS hospital beds are manufactured and supplied by private companies and not civil Servants? If a supplier was American and made good quality affordable beds would patients care?
If it wasn’t for private suppliers and contractors including equipment and drug providers the NHS would collapse tomorrow. Some of those drugs and pieces of equipment will have been developed in the US by American companies.
And as long as the NHS is free at the point of use - so what?
I think I have explained this to you before, and may have to do so again, but the issue is whether (as part of a deal) the NHS is forced to source from a limited number of suppliers. If that happens, then those suppliers would collectively force up prices to the detriment of the NHS.
Which would be illegal and we could fine them all their profits
How does the cost of drugs in the US compare with current cost of drugs to the NHS?
Comments
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative
Plus Labour would lose Bolsover anyway on the latest polling, only to the Brexit Party not the Tories
Any confidence vote can only happen surely after Boris becomes PM not beforehand. By which point he is PM. Unless Parliament can find an alternative successor (which they can't unless they send for Corbyn as Corbyn won't back anyone else) he will remain PM for the 14 days and then there will be a General Election. With Boris as PM.
(incidentally, it's entirely possible to have no PM, not even an acting one, for quite a while)
1) Remain - and £171 million a week (NET!) goes to the EU
2) Leave - US style privatisation (?)
https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/1135995565077073921?s=21
Problem solved!
We’ve just do some research on just how much money they pissed away. Even I was pretty shocked 😳
Wiki says 42 but that doesn't include Sunak, Dowden and Jenrick who announce in tomorrow's Times.
https://twitter.com/DavidTCDavies/status/1135620699224190977
It's very simple:
The PM remains PM until Her Maj appoints someone else. If the Conservative Party, as the party currently in office, changes leader, then in normal circumstances Her Maj would simply appoint the new leader as PM, on the not unreasonable assumption that the new leader would still command the confidence of the House, were this to be tested. If it's not tested, or it is tested and the new government wins a confidence vote, then the new leader remains PM.
If a confidence vote is lost, then it's also very simple. The key point is that Her Majesty doesn't go around appointing candidates at random, or because they happen to be Leader of the Opposition, or Deputy Leader of the government party. Instead, her officials 'take soundings', to see if anyone is likely to command the confidence of the House. If it looks as though someone is able to form a government which would, if tested, command the confidence of the House, then that person gets appointed PM. If not, and if this situation persists for 14 days, the outgoing PM remains in office for the interim and a GE ensues.
In the current parliament, this means in practice that Corbyn has almost no chance of becoming PM, even temporarily, because it's virtually inconceivable that the 'soundings' would indicate that he would command the confidence of the House. It also could mean that the new Conservative leader wouldn't become PM, if a chunk of Tory MPs resigned the whip and indicated (in those famous 'soundings' again) that they wouldn't have confidence in the new leader.
Everyone got it?
That £171m is not money the NHS is currently getting; so Remaining and continuing to pay it to the EU doesn't damage the NHS, it just doesn't boost NHS spending either.
(Btw... NHS spending could be boosted by the government at any time should it be so minded.)
They said that the bet when does May leave is when a new leader is appointed. Odd but there you are. I have money on July as a result. For a long time the market was under a false impression and I think betfair needs to be much clearer up front on these definitions
I know I am not going to convince you it's the right thing to do but don't expect it to be a massive vote loser among typical labour supporters.
I do acknowledge it partly depends on how well/badly it's explained - see Dementia Tax (another sensible policy) for how not to do it.
http://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/12081_19-Land-for-the-Many.pdf
I shall be returning to this subject tomorrow I reckon when there are more of us about, but this jumped out at me straight off:
"To provide a reasonable degree of stability for renters, particularly those with young children, we recommend that the permitted grounds for eviction within the first three years of a tenancy should be more limited than they are under the reformed system in Scotland, excluding, for instance, a right to repossess the property in order to renovate or sell."
Going further than Scottish reforms.
New tenants get 3 years, even if a landlord wants to sell (on open market - they can sell to another landlord).
Funny old world.....
Let me explain that the people who lose out from tax changes tend to be angrier than those who gain from tax changes are grateful.
There are no good choices. A new PM has to be a Brexiter, if only to stop the constant whining of “ if only they really believed in Brexit”.
The choices on offer are dreadful . As an ardent Remainer I hate Bozo but truly despise Raab.
I’d prefer Gove but he won’t win against Johnson . Goves only chance is against the born again Brexiters like Hunt and Javid but the maths mean the final two will definitely have Johnson so barring something sensational he may aswell start arranging the removal men.
Paging Brenda!
If it wasn’t for private suppliers and contractors including equipment and drug providers the NHS would collapse tomorrow. Some of those drugs and pieces of equipment will have been developed in the US by American companies.
And as long as the NHS is free at the point of use - so what?
Still it's a pointless argument... if you think it's a serious vote loser, you've got no fear of it every being implemented.
I think it will be judged by voters in the round - it depends what the extra atxes are going to be spent on. 'Tax the rich' is never likely to be a net vote loser imo.
But apart from that, yes your analysis seems correct.
[1] I think you need a PM to 1) legally order a nuclear launch, 2) chair the Cabinet, 3) attend the European Council, 4) chair the National Security Council, 5) appoint the Ministers(?)
Does anyone have a scooby-doo what he is actually going to do about Brexit?
Ask people if they should pay more in property tax annually than a billionaire oligarch living in a £70 million apartment at One Hyde Park - and most people would say no. But that is the system we have now as said oligarch with his single person discount pays a mere £1200 a year in council tax to the very generously resourced City of Westminster!
Labour’s proposed new tax proportionate to property values and charged on owners would in fact see most people paying less - outside inner London of course!
Not Mansion Tax, Not Yacht Tax, Not WAG Tax.
Garden Tax - a tax on gardens, those areas of grass and flowers which surround ordinary houses.
"When will Theresa May officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party?"
She officially ceases to be [leader of the Conservative Party] at the moment she resigns, even if she is an Acting Leader thereafter.
Betfair are in a world of pain on this one.
Please let Rory stay in a bit longer.