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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Let’s put an end to this rubbish thinking about LAB being vulnerable in its Leave Westminster seats
"There is some chatter in the Labour groups about the party adopting a radical Revoke and Reform policy at a September General Election. Not the usual suspects, this comes from Corbyn supporters. In which case Labour better prepare for annihilation by the Brexit Party in its Leave seats in the North and Midlands and Wales even if they hold onto London and other big cities and university towns"
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Could be all moot.
More realistically, not getting rid of Corbyn will see the election campaign on many different issues. The Tories and Brexit Party can get into discussions between themselves about who hates the Europeans more but don't be amazed if a large portion of the electorate pays some attention to everything/anything else.
Which somewhat agrees with the header.
Brexit one way or the other is not the be all and end all for many people. I have my preferences on Brexit but I'm voting Labour regardless of our policy on the matter.
This is backed up if you look at the pattern of the results from that election. Corbyn’s LAB made 28 gains from the Tories the majority of them in seats which had voted leave."
Surely at the last election Brexit wasn't much of an issue for Labour Leave voters because Jezza successfully neutralized it by saying we would leave?
There were lots of votes in the Euro elections. I understand serial Parliamentary failure Nigel Farage won them once again.
I wonder if his supporters get sick of just being successful at Euro elections and then failing miserably in GEs....
Instead of delivering a message . We hope those who normally vote Labour but voted for other parties will come back to us they’ve basically told those voters good riddance , you’ve betrayed us .
Another own goal by Corbyn and his cronies .
> https://twitter.com/MichaelDugher/status/1133644377711157249
Nope as I stated yesterday a lot of Labour MPs in leave constituencies surveyed their constituents who said the deal wasn't good enough. That allowed them to continue voting against May's Deal..
I thought 13% for UKIP at the 2015 GE was a magnificent result rather than a miserable failure.
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/opinion/house-commons/104193/lisa-nandy-mp-labour
"...there is a centre-ground of leave and remain voters alike, which is as passionate as the rest, but stayed home this week for lack of a clear voice in national politics. That is the ground we should build on."
"TBH a centrist Labour party isn't touching 40% these days..."
I disagree. There are plenty of actual and potential political orphans atm. Put some bland left of centrist in charge of Lab and an ardent Brexiter in charge of Cons (not an impossible turn of events) and kaboom I think the political dynamic in this country changes.
Would Lab lose the loons? Would they lose you? Perhaps. But to many it would be a welcome relief from the loonosity we are seeing now.
> > @williamglenn said:
> > https://twitter.com/MichaelDugher/status/1133644377711157249
>
> Nope as I stated yesterday a lot of Labour MPs in leave constituencies surveyed their constituents who said the deal wasn't good enough. That allowed them to continue voting against May's Deal..
That's all fine, but where's the solution? Nandy and Lavery etc aren't providing anyone with any solutions, just that they're against the May deal and against a second referendum. As we know the EU won't renegotiate so surely logically they're for no deal? (They're not but they seem to be very close to boxing themselves into that position)
And as I mentioned previously, you can get 10-1 on the Conservatives polling under 10% next week (Ladbrokes). I can see Labour tanking but not below 10% and probably nearer 20% or more. The LibDems will make a big move, although I'm sure the Brexit Party will win by a significant amount.
Which means Tories <10% at 10-1 must surely represent some value?
The in-fighting will only get worse in the short-term and no one likes voting for a broken, leaderless, party. I also have a feeling we're going to see trouble with Trump's visit. So all-in-all not a 'wellbeing' time for the tories.
> but I'm voting Labour regardless
>
> Well with a name of "The Jezziah" ...
I wonder whether blind political allegiance to a political leader (yes I use that phrase advisedly when referring to Corbyn) is actually an illness? A kind of insanity. It is pretty weird from where I see things
>
> Normal euro election turnout I reckon..
Nandy also struggles with maths as she thinks 72% of the electorate stayed at home.
Even though we don't like the others party leader because they fail as far as we are concerned we each seem happy with our own. So maybe we have the leaders we are suited to, your party should stick with Farage mine with Corbyn.
> Excellent post by Mike.
>
> And as I mentioned previously, you can get 10-1 on the Conservatives polling under 10% next week (Ladbrokes). I can see Labour tanking but not below 10% and probably nearer 20% or more. The LibDems will make a big move, although I'm sure the Brexit Party will win by a significant amount.
>
> Which means Tories <10% at 10-1 must surely represent some value?
>
> The in-fighting will only get worse in the short-term and no one likes voting for a broken, leaderless, party. I also have a feeling we're going to see trouble with Trump's visit. So all-in-all not a 'wellbeing' time for the tories.
Turnout will be key. Are there ANY good reasons, for all but the most committed to vote either Labour or Tory right now?
Ps. Good spot re the bet. Seems value, even if, on balance, less likely than not.
>
> I disagree. There are plenty of actual and potential political orphans atm. Put some bland left of centrist in charge of Lab and an ardent Brexiter in charge of Cons (not an impossible turn of events) and kaboom I think the political dynamic in this country changes.
>
------------
I think we've already hit a tipping point where that might not work. A Tory leader whose unspoken message is "Nigel is right" and a Labour leader whose unspoken message is "Vince is right", could just accelerate their own decline.
You make out Brexiteers to be Nazi's, fascists and everything wrong with the world, you are a very angry remainer who insults brexiteers and even the idea of Brexit.
You also voted Conservative at the last election....
Leader Gordon Brown
Popular vote 1,035,528
Percentage 42.0%
> The best idea would be for Leave and Remain parties to form two alliances and run as such at a GE. Much more likely good of a settled result (and it being Leave!)
But, to try and spell this out to you, as Mike has rightly pointed out, Brexit is FAR less of an issue for those to the left of centre. It really, really, isn't. It's an obsession of the right.
There are many other issues for the left to campaign on, which will be aired at a General Election.
> The best idea would be for Leave and Remain parties to form two alliances and run as such at a GE. Much more likely good of a settled result (and it being Leave!)
I suspect that would break the Conservatives before the election even began - Nigel wants and will insist on an immediate (even no deal) exit and the saner Tories aren't going to accept that.
Farage does well for UKIP and now the Brexit party, but if we can find fault in Jezza's capabilities in a GE then Farage is a disaster!
Tone down the condescension
> Back in 2010 the Labour brand looked indestructible in Scotland. They barely scraped fifth last week.
>
> Leader Gordon Brown
> Popular vote 1,035,528
> Percentage 42.0%
Yep. In 2010 no one would have predicated the total collapse of SLAB.
In 2015 no on would have predicted Con to poll 9% in a national election.
We live in strange times...
> > @TOPPING said:
> >
> > I disagree. There are plenty of actual and potential political orphans atm. Put some bland left of centrist in charge of Lab and an ardent Brexiter in charge of Cons (not an impossible turn of events) and kaboom I think the political dynamic in this country changes.
> >
> ------------
>
> I think we've already hit a tipping point where that might not work. A Tory leader whose unspoken message is "Nigel is right" and a Labour leader whose unspoken message is "Vince is right", could just accelerate their own decline.
But "Vince is right" and being bland is not the only centrist message. Vince did not have a plan, being a centrist tinkering with the status quo might be (is) better than what we are offered elsewhere but what we really need is a centrist but radical and reforming leader with a vision which he or she can communicate effectively.
The world is changing and the current structures within society do need changing, Farage and Corbyn are both excellent at pinpointing issues, but terrible at coming up with practical and workable solutions.
I don’t think most do, they just don’t want to annoy those who voted leave there more than necessary just in case, hence their continual bleating about compromise being needed and not wanting a referendum, then doing nothing to move anything forward.
> > @TOPPING said:
> >
> > I disagree. There are plenty of actual and potential political orphans atm. Put some bland left of centrist in charge of Lab and an ardent Brexiter in charge of Cons (not an impossible turn of events) and kaboom I think the political dynamic in this country changes.
> >
> ------------
>
> I think we've already hit a tipping point where that might not work. A Tory leader whose unspoken message is "Nigel is right" and a Labour leader whose unspoken message is "Vince is right", could just accelerate their own decline.
Yes that is certainly a possibility. The Tories have been in thrall to UKIP/Farage since the coalition years - they have tacked further and further toward extreme anti-EU positions and this has not improved their electoral fortunes. On the contrary, their very existence is now in question.
Corbyn will now presumably move to a revoke and remain/second referendum position and by doing so he will legitimise the actions of those Labour voters who have gone to the Lib Dems and the Greens. He will be an unconvincing advocate for his new position since everyone knows that until recently he has been a lifelong Lexiter. So he will struggle to get back many Labour voters who were lost last week.
I also agree that come that GE the prospect of a 'proper socialist' government will potentially be as big an issue as Brexit.
I also expect that the majority of Labour voters in Leave constituencies are actually Remainers, so there is a bigger risk of losing them to the LibDems than losing Labour Leavers to the Tories or Brexit Party. The latter, if they care enough, will have already departed to the Brexit Party so Labour moving to an explicit Remain stance will not affect them.
This "annihilation" of Labour in Leave seats in the North and Midlands if Labour moves to a clear Remain stance is just baloney. They'll gain more than they lose, even in Leave seats.
Do I need to explain this simply for you to catch up?
I said I'll be voting Labour regardless of our Brexit policy.
NigelForRemain who regularly insults Brexit and Brexiteers complained about this, which as I pointed out is ironic because he voted for the Conservatives in the last election despite being opposed to their Brexit policy.
If Labour were a No deal party, a second ref party or a lets join the Euro party it wouldn't really make a difference to the point.
Is this simple enough now or are you going to counter by pointing out that Labour didn't win the 1992 GE?
https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1133667292007620609
>
> But "Vince is right" and being bland is not the only centrist message. Vince did not have a plan, being a centrist tinkering with the status quo might be (is) better than what we are offered elsewhere but what we really need is a centrist but radical and reforming leader with a vision which he or she can communicate effectively.
>
-----------
Agreed. I also think that we won't resolve the European psychodrama until an unapologetically pro-European case wins through. One of the things that drove Euroscepticism was supposedly pro-EU politicians going out of their way to tell people they also thought the EU was a bit crap.
> I expect that Labour MPs in Leave constituents are being bombarded incessantly by Leaver constituents. But these will be mainly Tories who won't vote for them anyway so can be safely ignored.
>
Really?
I think there is a HUGE amount of wishful thinking going on here in the Remain Central world of PB lol!
> The best idea would be for Leave and Remain parties to form two alliances and run as such at a GE. Much more likely good of a settled result (and it being Leave!)
Oct GE:
Tories under (say) Johnson running on Hard Brexit. Labour under Corbyn running on No Brexit.
There's your 2nd referendum.
> > @Pulpstar said:
> > but I'm voting Labour regardless
> >
> > Well with a name of "The Jezziah" ...
>
> I wonder whether blind political allegiance to a political leader (yes I use that phrase advisedly when referring to Corbyn) is actually an illness? A kind of insanity. It is pretty weird from where I see things
*********************************************************************************
I feel the same about blind allegiance to a football team. It's quite common and pretty weird - yes, maybe an illness.
> Good point:
>
> https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1133667292007620609
To be fair to him, unlike a lot of no deal enthusiasts he realises that no deal means no WA but still a deal.
The reality is that deal will be very similar to the WA and we are all wasting our time arguing very passionately over very little.
> > @Barnesian said:
> > I expect that Labour MPs in Leave constituents are being bombarded incessantly by Leaver constituents. But these will be mainly Tories who won't vote for them anyway so can be safely ignored.
> >
>
> Really?
>
> I think there is a HUGE amount of wishful thinking going on here in the Remain Central world of PB lol!
The wishful thinking is in your head my friend. If Brexit was so important how come that the majority of LAB gains from CON at GE2017 were in Leave seats?
> Good point:
>
> https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1133667292007620609
Doesn't he want to leave without a deal and then negotiate a Canada+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ free trade deal once we're out?
> https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1133657854735454208
This and the Brexit fallout shows that the referendum model in this country has become discredited as a decision making tool. This is largely due to an unwritten constitution allowing you to set whatever rules you like for a plebiscite, but notice both in Scotland and UK wide there are arguments that “circumstances have changed” and a second vote is now the goal.
We can now expect on every matter we vote on in future a legitimised argument that the vote should be re-run for reasons. Not looking forward to our future political discourse if I’m honest. The genie is out of the bottle. Thanks Dave.
Loss of power at Holyrood in 2007, despite coming second only narrowly, due to the consensus of all other parties that the SNP deserved a chance;
Loss of Glasgow NE in a by-election where the government's majority was not at stake;
Loss of one quarter of their councillors in 2007 and falling to second place behind the SNP in councillors, albeit winning the popular vote;
Inability to keep a leader for more than a few months at time, most of those leaders being of very poor quality suggesting a party that had been hollowed out.
What happened in 2010 I think was that Scotland was not anxious to see a Tory government so uniquely in the UK backed Labour - who were after all led by a Scotsman as well - to stop it.
But that meant the final collapse, when it came, was all the more calamitous.
Tories talking about the Corbyn firewall should ponder that...
But anyway I’m not sure that many Labour MPs in leave areas have felt that vulnerable. For example Tom Watson has already been prattling the “Remain and reform” nonsense (Reform what? Why are the EU going to reform anything for you? What are you talking about?). And he’s an MP for leave West Bromwich which is a Labour one party state but where TBP marginally topped the poll last week (Sandwell local council area). I don’t know whether he feels vulnerable to that but he doesn’t give that impression.
> Jeremy Hunt leaking support from Tory MPs to Michael Gove after No Deal gaffes
>
>
>
> https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/jeremy-hunt-s-gaffe-boosts-michael-gove-s-bid-for-tory-leadership-tr7nkwf9v?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR1uHIM-Pe4eOTB3MwetSINZlhjjD2V_f-HvS37FUioL3r-keNc5v6Gi0u4#Echobox=1559086128
>
> Is it a gaffe when he clearly did it very deliberately? I’m curious as to why he did it as the reaction cannot have been unexpected.
Hunt might be thinking that he has lost the headbanger votes anyway so there is no point trying to out-Brexit the Brexiteer candidates.
>
> The wishful thinking is in your head my friend. If Brexit was so important how come that the majority of LAB gains from CON at GE2017 were in Leave seats?
To be fair it was the first General Election where Labour had a Brexiteer in charge since 1983.
You are looking down the wrong end of the telescope. You can't criticise someone for voting for a party which included an element they didn't agree with when you admit you will vote for a party if they include something you don't agree with.
> > @GIN1138 said:
> > > @Barnesian said:
> > > I expect that Labour MPs in Leave constituents are being bombarded incessantly by Leaver constituents. But these will be mainly Tories who won't vote for them anyway so can be safely ignored.
> > >
> >
> > Really?
> >
> > I think there is a HUGE amount of wishful thinking going on here in the Remain Central world of PB lol!
>
> The wishful thinking is in your head my friend. If Brexit was so important how come that the majority of LAB gains from CON at GE2017 were in Leave seats?
Because Jezza successfully played both sides to perfection in that election
Remainers in the south thought Labour was the best bet for stopping Brexit but Leavers in the north believed him when he said we'd leave.
I was being generous and assuming you were some poor soul who hit your head sometime in early 2017 and has woken up a few years later assuming we are at the beginning of the promised 1000 year Tory reich.
If what you actually meant was Labour and the Brexit Party can continue to not win the 2017 election of a few years ago forever then you do make an interesting point.
I don't think if we keep Corbyn as leader we can win GE'17. Although it is actually worse than that, even if we picked the great Tony as leader I don't think he could win GE'17.
Until time travel is invented that election seems pretty set in place.
As for future elections well they are actually undecided but your confidence of continuing Tory governments 'for ever' is very brave. I might advise not to put too much money on the concept...
> > @isam said:
> > The best idea would be for Leave and Remain parties to form two alliances and run as such at a GE. Much more likely good of a settled result (and it being Leave!)
>
> Oct GE:
>
> Tories under (say) Johnson running on Hard Brexit. Labour under Corbyn running on No Brexit.
>
> There's your 2nd referendum.
No it isn't because other parties will be running and other issues will be in play and nobody, no matter how wise they think they are, will no the impact. It is like all the nonsense being played out currently on what votes were for remain and what were for leave in the EU election. Some is obvious, but some isn't and people have been arguing here an in the media as to what a vote for this party or that meant.
There is only one way of knowing the result of a 2nd referendum.
Now Labour could make the calculation that it is better for it to regain voters in London, and the largest urban centres, at the expense of losing long-standing voters in the former. That may even be the right calculation. But, it does mean accepting that a part of their coalition has to be ditched.
> > @rottenborough said:
> > Good point:
> >
> > https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1133667292007620609
>
> To be fair to him, unlike a lot of no deal enthusiasts he realises that no deal means no WA but still a deal.
>
> The reality is that deal will be very similar to the WA and we are all wasting our time arguing very passionately over very little.
He wants to be inside the room to wreck any chance of a deal, and if he fails to be able to spill the dirt on the others
> https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1133670495679860737?s=21
Oh god they're not still going on about that bloody bus are they?
> TBP has just beaten Labour by margins of 2 or 3 to 1 in the North East, Stoke, South Yorkshire, the former coalfields of Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire. It's completely fanciful to suggest that Labour is not vulnerable in such areas.
>
> Now Labour could make the calculation that it is better for it to regain voters in London, and the largest urban centres, at the expense of losing long-standing voters in the former. That may even be the right calculation. But, it does mean accepting that a part of their coalition has to be ditched.
You are thinking like an obsessed brexiteer. A general election will be about much wider issues and Farage's position on the NHS will be very hard to defend.
> TBP has just beaten Labour by margins of 2 or 3 to 1 in the North East, Stoke, South Yorkshire, the former coalfields of Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire. It's completely fanciful to suggest that Labour is not vulnerable in such areas.
>
> Now Labour could make the calculation that it is better for it to regain voters in London, and the largest urban centres, at the expense of losing long-standing voters in the former. That may even be the right calculation. But, it does mean accepting that a part of their coalition has to be ditched.
Now that Sean Fear has opined there's nothing more to say on the matter.
> https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1133657854735454208
The party (sub branch) that tried to turn the Euros into a vote on Indy Ref II and got 11.6%, their worst ever result, must be feeling a little conflicted.
I'll get my coat.
Have a good morning.
> > @MikeSmithson said:
> > > @GIN1138 said:
> > > > @Barnesian said:
> > > > I expect that Labour MPs in Leave constituents are being bombarded incessantly by Leaver constituents. But these will be mainly Tories who won't vote for them anyway so can be safely ignored.
> > > >
> > >
> > > Really?
> > >
> > > I think there is a HUGE amount of wishful thinking going on here in the Remain Central world of PB lol!
> >
> > The wishful thinking is in your head my friend. If Brexit was so important how come that the majority of LAB gains from CON at GE2017 were in Leave seats?
>
> Because Jezza successfully played both sides to perfection in that election
>
> Remainers in the south thought Labour was the best bet for stopping Brexit but Leavers in the north believed him when he said we'd leave.
Looking at thing solely through the prism of Brexit is wrong. Get a life
> > @kle4 said:
> > Jeremy Hunt leaking support from Tory MPs to Michael Gove after No Deal gaffes
> >
> >
> >
> > https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/jeremy-hunt-s-gaffe-boosts-michael-gove-s-bid-for-tory-leadership-tr7nkwf9v?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR1uHIM-Pe4eOTB3MwetSINZlhjjD2V_f-HvS37FUioL3r-keNc5v6Gi0u4#Echobox=1559086128
> >
> > Is it a gaffe when he clearly did it very deliberately? I’m curious as to why he did it as the reaction cannot have been unexpected.
>
> Hunt might be thinking that he has lost the headbanger votes anyway so there is no point trying to out-Brexit the Brexiteer candidates.
Hunt looks slippery after previously endorsing no deal. A cynic might suggest his strategy is to hoover up the votes of the remainer MPs before pivoting to hard Brexit to appeal to the members.
https://twitter.com/SJAMcBride/status/1133671157754941440
>
> Get a life
Charming!
> > @GIN1138 said:
> > > @MikeSmithson said:
> > > > @GIN1138 said:
> > > > > @Barnesian said:
> > > > > I expect that Labour MPs in Leave constituents are being bombarded incessantly by Leaver constituents. But these will be mainly Tories who won't vote for them anyway so can be safely ignored.
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > Really?
> > > >
> > > > I think there is a HUGE amount of wishful thinking going on here in the Remain Central world of PB lol!
> > >
> > > The wishful thinking is in your head my friend. If Brexit was so important how come that the majority of LAB gains from CON at GE2017 were in Leave seats?
> >
> > Because Jezza successfully played both sides to perfection in that election
> >
> > Remainers in the south thought Labour was the best bet for stopping Brexit but Leavers in the north believed him when he said we'd leave.
>
> Looking at thing solely through the prism of Brexit is wrong. Get a life
Clearly Brexit changed something as the Tories gained Mansfield and Labour gained Canterbury. What would happen at a GE held in the next few months is hard to predict.
> > @isam said:
>
> > The best idea would be for Leave and Remain parties to form two alliances and run as such at a GE. Much more likely good of a settled result (and it being Leave!)
>
>
>
> Oct GE:
>
>
>
> Tories under (say) Johnson running on Hard Brexit. Labour under Corbyn running on No Brexit.
>
>
>
> There's your 2nd referendum.
>
> I don’t know a single lib dem that would vote for corbyn or Johnson so no way would that be a second referendum
More sistinctly put than my comment.
I said I'll vote for a party regardless of its Brexit policy.
Nigel criticised this, which is ironic as he is passionately anti Brexit and voted for the Conservatives.
My criticism of him consisted of 'I don't think you are in a position to complain about me saying I would vote for a party despite its Brexit position.'
Is that simple enough to understand now? Maybe go back and read the original posts as you seem to be confusing me and Nigel at some point.
"So maybe we have the leaders we are suited to, your party should stick with Farage mine with Corbyn."
Implying that you were happy with the situation as it existed then and as you thought it should exist in the future. A position I wholeheartedly endorsed as it hadn't resulted in either a UKIP or a Labour government then and is unlikely to do so in the future.
> There are many other issues for the left to campaign on, which will be aired at a General Election.
>
> You are entitled to your opinion, but I’d say if we haven’t left by the time of the next GE it will be a single issue affair about Brexit.
>
> Tone down the condescension
Don't lecture me on etiquette. You're the most snide person on this site, constantly putting people down with nasty little retorts ('calm down dear' being just one of your latest).
It isn't simply an opinion. As Mike Smithson has posted, Brexit is of far less concern as a GE voting issue to those on the left than the right. This is what opinion polling has demonstrated and as Mike has, once more, illustrated in this thread header.
I'm afraid that to those on the Alt-right, Brexit so dominates their landscape that it's like a religion. They are obsessives. To many on the left there are other issues and, frankly, until Cameron called for the vote most of us* were pretty ambivalent about the EU. It ranked very low in opinion polling on what mattered. And it still won't dominate the left. To us, it's frankly less important.
*I'm a LibDem but gently left of centre
> > @Sean_F said:
> > TBP has just beaten Labour by margins of 2 or 3 to 1 in the North East, Stoke, South Yorkshire, the former coalfields of Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire. It's completely fanciful to suggest that Labour is not vulnerable in such areas.
> >
> > Now Labour could make the calculation that it is better for it to regain voters in London, and the largest urban centres, at the expense of losing long-standing voters in the former. That may even be the right calculation. But, it does mean accepting that a part of their coalition has to be ditched.
>
> You are thinking like an obsessed brexiteer. A general election will be about much wider issues and Farage's position on the NHS will be very hard to defend.
Maybe. But then, by the same token, the Conservatives have nothing to worry about in London and the M3 and M4 corridors.
But, I suspect that is not so.
> > @GIN1138 said:
> > > @Barnesian said:
> > > I expect that Labour MPs in Leave constituents are being bombarded incessantly by Leaver constituents. But these will be mainly Tories who won't vote for them anyway so can be safely ignored.
> > >
> >
> > Really?
> >
> > I think there is a HUGE amount of wishful thinking going on here in the Remain Central world of PB lol!
>
> The wishful thinking is in your head my friend. If Brexit was so important how come that the majority of LAB gains from CON at GE2017 were in Leave seats?
Both main parties campaigned on a brexit ticket.
I believe that brexit isn't a big enough issue to lose Labour all their northern seats. However it sounds like the electorate are generally fed up with the London leaning party and if an appropriate party emerges then many of those seats will no longer glow red.
> Looking at thing solely through the prism of Brexit is wrong. Get a life
Spot on
> > @MikeSmithson said:
> > > @Sean_F said:
> > > TBP has just beaten Labour by margins of 2 or 3 to 1 in the North East, Stoke, South Yorkshire, the former coalfields of Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire. It's completely fanciful to suggest that Labour is not vulnerable in such areas.
> > >
> > > Now Labour could make the calculation that it is better for it to regain voters in London, and the largest urban centres, at the expense of losing long-standing voters in the former. That may even be the right calculation. But, it does mean accepting that a part of their coalition has to be ditched.
> >
> > You are thinking like an obsessed brexiteer. A general election will be about much wider issues and Farage's position on the NHS will be very hard to defend.
>
> Maybe. But then, by the same token, the Conservatives have nothing to worry about in London and the M3 and M4 corridors.
>
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1133670495679860737?s=21
>
> Oh god they're not still going on about that bloody bus are they?
Banter now demands that he wins the leadership race, but is found guilty, and is subject to a recall petition.
If all politicians supposedly lying - in the applicants view anyway - were prosecuted then the commons would be empty and the courts backed up.
> Excellent post by Mike.
>
On the contrary, I have rarely read a thread header here that I have disagreed with more. I disagree that it is "rubbish thinking" that Labour is vulnerable in its Leave voting Westminster seat (or at least many of them). In fact it is "rubbish thinking" to dismiss that threat.
What people are forgetting is that Labour built a successful campaign* in 2017 around a position of defusing Brexit as an issue, which largely allowed them to keep their Leave voters whilst still as it turns out attracting tactical votes from some Remainers in a polarised two party election. Any general election fought in the near future will be very different and the 2019 Euros demonstrated just how vulnerable Labour is in its Leave voting seats, especially some of the marginal gains in 2017 listed above, as well as other narrow holds (e.g Dudley North even before Austin relinquished the whip).
Note that that does not mean that I am denying that there is a good tactical case for Labour now to tack towards Remain as the least bad option available to it, at least consolidating support amongst those who are at least receptive to a clear message. Significant losses for Labour in strong Leave voting areas are very likely now for Labour - people who are not going to be won back by continued sitting on the fence. If the Tories elect an unequivocal leaver as leader then the "very likely" become the inevitable. In those circumstances, Labour's best bet is to try and hold their support and pick up a few seats in compensation in Remain voting areas to try and contain the net losses to reasonable levels.
* Successful at least in terms of a campaign that turned around opinion from the starting point of a huge deficit if not quite reaching the winning post.
I don't want to dampen your spirits but the reason the rest of the Tories aren't quite so happy is because they have a slightly more realistic view of the Conservatives electoral future.
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1133670495679860737?s=21
>
> Oh god they're not still going on about that bloody bus are they?
It's not about the bus, it's about the statements Johnson made repeatedly in the media.
There is no question he misled the public deliberately; as far as I can tell the main question at stake here is whether or not the relevant legislation covers this, and in my inexpert opinion it does not.
Johnson will walk free and in the criminal sense is entirely innocent.
> https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1133670495679860737?s=21
Does anyone know how many Private Prosecutions for Misconduct in a Public Office have succeeded? Just asking.
I'd say they would have more hope of getting Prezza for his lunchtime BJs, than Boris for his Brexit prezzentations.