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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » 3 days before he lost GE2010 voters in the marginals rated Gordon Brown as best person to lead Britain through economic crisis
I came across the above finding from the final Ipsos-MORI marginals poll of the GE2010 campaign while researching the broader question of how such surveys compare with normal national polls when its comes to predicting elections.
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That said I think the discussion here tends to overstate how bad an electoral liability Gordon Brown was, not least because not many people on the left who post here were impressed with him
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We've spent a lot of time (correctly, IMHO) talking about LibDem switchers, but the other way for Cameron to win is to get people who voted for Gordon Brown. If these people exist, they sound like the kind of voters who would swing at the last minute, when they finally get around to tuning in and deciding which of the candidates looks the most prime-ministerialest.
Whilst we can say that Labour had a low vote share, claims of second worst defeat ever doesn't reflect the reality of modern politics and the death of the two party system.
Are we really suggesting the Gordon's 258 seats and a hung parliament is a worse result that Kinnock's 229 seats in '87 and a 50 seat tory majority?
Anti tory tactical voting has become an established norm I guess now
YouGov Lab +7 on 40, with some eroding of Con strengths on Asylum/Immigration 27 (-4) Laura Norder 31 (-4) and Tax 26 (-5)
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/0m7gxef7e6/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-041113.pdf
Also YouGov publish the London schools research Carola mentioned on Sunday:
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/biz1ol8ka2/YouGov-London-Councils-Survey-Free-School-Parents-Results-130920.pdf
Londoners think their kids get the best grades, and rate Head Teachers (net important) 92, themselves, 88 ahead of the governors, 82, LEA, 67 and DoE, 71 in ensuring high standards in schools.
2 hours 32 minutes 32 seconds
"UK growth to pick up in 2014 – NIESR
Thinktank upgrades forecasts for this year and next – but warns economy too dependent on squeezed consumers"
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2013/nov/05/uk-growth-2014-niesr
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/10426247/Labour-accused-of-new-cover-up-over-Falkirk-vote-rigging.html
A breath taking final comment
A Labour source said: "We are acting on the basis of evidence, we are acting to uphold the integrity of our organisation. I don't think the Tories recognise those motivations."
Guffaw !
New Labour the worst government ever.
Suppose that one-in-five Lib Dem 2010 voters switch to Labour - about 5% of the electorate. If the Tories can convince 2.5% of the electorate to switch from Labour to them, it will balance out, and this would be about one-in-twelve Labour 2010 voters.
Looking at the latest ICM poll for the Guardian, the weighted base identifies 182 Labour 2010 voters. So the Conservatives need a net transfer of 15 voters. In this poll there are 4 voters switching to their benefit, but 12 going in the other direction. Labour, though, are also losing 8 voters to UKIP and have 27 don't knows.
Supposing the Tories could win back their voters lost to Labour and win the votes of Labour voters currently supporting UKIP, then they would only need to pick up 3 more voters from the Labour don't knows to balance the Lib Dem to Labour switchers. It's far from impossible.
2 hours 2 minutes 2 seconds
NATIONALISE ENERGY AND RAIL COMPANIES, SAY PUBLIC
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2013/11/04/nationalise-energy-and-rail-companies-say-public/
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/tu07589ap6/YG-Archive-131028-Class.pdf
Doesn't surprise me that most people want these things nationalised. Maybe people don't remember what public supply was like before (i'm too young), or it might just be the fact that small groups can profit from the supply of essentials where choice is an illusion. But I don't think politicians put forward good arguments in favour of private supply, especially when costs and prices only seem to go one way!
Maybe the Tories failed to gain a majority precisely because they weren't leading on the economy in the marginal - Which would mean, it still is the Economy Stupid.
An Iraqi immigrant boosts the energy market and he's complaining :-)
The second factor was the very successful fear campaign run by Mandelson during the campaign. It was a very unusual tactic. The government in office would not say what they would do, where the cuts were to fall, what they would do about tax, would not have a spending review etc. Instead their relentless focus was what the tories would do with scare stories and exaggerations abounding frightening the 6m people who then worked for the state and several million more in the third sector.
It worked. No question about it. Cynical but effective. Mandy in a sentence.
There are two big political stories.
He can't talk about one, and won't talk about the other......
And we missed out on slogans like "looking after your world".
"Red Ed, union vote riggers and a stench that makes him unfit for No. 10"
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2487443/MAX-HASTINGS-Red-Ed-union-vote-riggers-stench-makes-unfit-No-10.html#ixzz2jkpPCHFb
Even Labour leader Mr Miliband, who has attacked the Government over spiralling costs, claimed £403.59 for fuel at his constituency home in Doncaster.
Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg claimed £254.29 for electricity and gas in his Sheffield constituency home, but David Cameron and George Osborne did not take advantage of the privilege.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2486858/MPs-including-Ed-Miliband-Nick-Clegg-energy-bills-paid-expenses.html
The public sector can pick up a few franchises in the next parliament IIRC.
I think Labour supporters are underestimating the strength of what will be the Con-LD government's argument (with memories still fresh of Brown) that after only 5 short years they need to finish the job.
a report written by a french immigrant and an italian immigrant finds european immigration is good. Who'd have thought it ?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2487501/How-migrants-outside-Europe-leave-100billion-hole-public-purse-Amount-taken-benefits-services-14-higher-money-back.html
Dr Carlos Vargas Silva of the Migration Observatory at Oxford University said the research suggests the net contribution of recent migrants is positive – but some groups can ‘represent a burden’.
In aggregate, it appears that EU migration is broadly positive, non-EU not so much.
So, we should have been a bit smarter about who we let in, these last few years, no?
He summed it up perfectly. We live in rip-off Britain. Everyone is ripping us off.
Meanwhile Lady Hodge the Dodge and chums now having a pop at the Duchy of Cornwall estates. If Lady Hodge and chums had been responsible for supporting the creation of as many businesses as the Prince's Trust, she could gloat her way from London to Tokyo and back umpteen times over.
I was on the Scilly Isles last week and got a year's weather in 6 days ! From blow your head off wind and gales to perfect sunshine sit on the beach and just about everything else in between bar snow. Good fun though and an excellect pub on the island.
Falkirk is going nowhere as a political issue. It will quickly disappear from the news in Englandshire but it will fester and fester in Scotland where Labour has lots of seats to lose to Alex Salmond.
Is the SNP highlighting the Falkirk business? That's entirely legitimate, of course, given the leverage intimidation that has been alleged and Brave Sir Ed's bravely running away from his own report.
On the pie chart: Clegg was only on 14%, but the Lib Dems got a lot more than that. Perhaps differential turnout partly explains the variance between the pie chart and the final result (or it could've been an off-kilter sample).
I only think that line is legitimate (ie a normalisation of the rules regarding it) if the same occurs with the Crown Estates. If Parliament wants the Royal Family's lands/businesses to operate in a standard way then it's illegitimate to at the same time have the rather odd settlement whereby the Crown Estates, which bring in a small fortune every year, are paid to the Treasury, and then the Treasury pays a much smaller amount in the Civil List to fund royal duties.
"Heating and lighting the average home has become a lot costlier over the past decade with gas up 52 per cent and electricity 32 per cent. Even George Osborne, the Chancellor, found it hard to keep the costs down during the long, cold winter. The latest Treasury accounts show that he enjoyed taxable benefits of £6,900, which relate to heating, lighting and other expenses in his personal flat at 11 Downing Street."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/10238349/George-Osborne-reduces-energy-costs-at-Downing-Street.html
The key question would have been: Who has the policies to solve the (& avoid another) economic crisis?
Leverage Labour can keep their funds flowing nicely.
So, there's a temporal aspect to the question as well.
As for the actual research itself: Meaningless fodder based on arbitrary time constraints. If it is trying to salve concerns about immigration it has failed; and has itself become a political football for the bigots that occupy the finges on the left and right. Dumb!
On-topic: The Tories have won the economic argument. REd still exhibits childish dreams about magick-money-trees: What a twunt....
Saw your post from yesterday, hope it all works out well, sometimes the surprises have a tendancy to be for the better in the long term.
Determine your true fitness age, you may get a surprise
http://www.ntnu.edu/cerg/vo2max
30 minutes
Much of every That's Life episode was taken up by the incompetance of the utility boards.
As an aside, I did find this comment amusing from the ubiquitous ‘leading member of the shadow cabinet’ who said: "Ed Miliband stuck his neck out quite far in ordering the initial inquiry but something led him to pull it again double quick. Now he just wants everything to go away but it won't.”
Story still rumbling on I see, and no doubt will get more dirty as vested interests attempt to close it down further.
"Yesterday's decision by Labour HQ in London to issue a ruling that appears to challenge the will of senior figures of the party in Scotland is potentially explosive. There are enough doubts about how the party is run nationally for this to make a difference. Mr Miliband cannot afford to look like any more like the London fixer that he already is. The party's traditional strength, particularly in manpower and resources, once rested heavily in Scotland. If it wants to restore its strength in Holyrood politics and see off the SNP on independence, Labour must avoid giving the impression that its London operation is rigging the reality in Falkirk for the benefit of Unite's (English) leadership."
And also to the UK as a whole:
"The Mail has been leading the charge in a somewhat retro reds-under-the-bed attack on Labour over the Falkirk business. Tales of union skullduggery and Labour's paymasters may feel a bit hackneyed, but over time they achieve potency; Caroline Flint's comment on Today that "We don't publish internal documents in the Labour Party" will hardly help either. The drumbeat of stories about excessive union influence has a cumulative effect. It settles in the public consciousness and over time convinces voters, in the back of their minds, that Mr Miliband is not his own man. The story is reaching that point of critical mass when it becomes impossible for a leader to resist demands for publication and full transparency. Revolt in Scotland and a constant rumble of union dirty tricks. At some point the detail ceases to matter, it's the handling that does the damage."
1) NR apparently completed some large scale engineering works shortly before the end of the contract, improving punctuality. Punctuality goes down during engineering works, as does passenger satisfaction, for the obvious reasons.
2) Several TOCs are returning equivalent amounts to the taxpayer.
3) The biggie: there is competition on the EC route from two OpenAccess operators - First Hull Trains and Grand Central. This keeps the main operator sharp, and also reduces the track access charges payable to NR.
4) The 'return to taxpayer' figures are not as simple as they seem. See (1) for the latest figures.
Indeed, it could be argued that OA should be extended more across the network.
There needs to be more honesty in the rail debate on all sides. For instance, whilst I welcome Network Rail's investment in the network, the off-the-books taxpayer-guaranteed debt is very worrying. There will soon be a time when operators will be forced to pay more realistic track access charges ...
(1): https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/rail-subsidy-per-passenger-mile
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/record-view-ed-miliband-must-2677645
Unite are still convinced that it is a conspiracy by right wing newspapers...must be written by David Spart.
"Reacting to the clarification tonight by the Labour Party of the status of statements given by the Kane family in connection with the party's Falkirk inquiry, a spokesman for Unite the union said:
"Unite welcomes the Labour Party statement, which confirms that despite all the bluster in the Daily Mail and the Sunday Times, absolutely nothing new has emerged to contradict or undermine the finding of both the Labour Party and Police Scotland that Unite had broken neither the law nor Labour rules in Falkirk.
"The real scandal is the conduct of elements of the national media, which have shown a wilful readiness to disregard any facts which do not fit their anti-union, anti-Labour agenda. We appeal to the media to now accept this clarification and leave the people of Falkirk in peace."
http://www.unitetheunion.org/news/unite-reaction-to-labour-party-statement-on-falkirk/
On topic, people think the economy very important, but are not convinced that it's really in anyone's control beyond a bit of marginal tinkering. Nor do they see a consistent line - one moment, everything must be cut because the deficit must be curbed immediately, next moment there's lots of cash available for this and that nice thing. They've concluded that things are gradually picking up but it's not particularly due to anything the government is doing, and the improvement has not helped the Conservative score one iota.
I am sure it will all work out with the boy. I think he is just a bit all over the place at the moment and it's been a real leap up for him in terms of training, intensity and time demands. He's not really known what level of commitment is needed to be a serious player up to now and it seems like he has decided he wants to play for fun and no more. That's absolutely fair enough - there's a big world out there that you can't enjoy if all you are doing is training, playing, studying and recovering; I know I could not have done that at 19. It was just a bit of a surprise yesterday as he had spent so many years working towards it.
MP's have decided to increase questioning by 5250%
English Labour and English Unite really don't get Falkirk - and Milband's high handed dismissal of senior Scottish requests to re-open Falkirk are not going down well - some are now saying Lamont's position is untenable......
10 minutes 10 seconds
The report says that EA immigration is positive but that only one third of total immigration is from EA. The two thirds that aren't are mildly negative, and that's including the huge boost Lynton has given it. As for jobs 2.3 million going to immigrants versus 1 million to "natives" seems a strange definition of success. A ratio the other way is what the country needs.
Clearly the only conclusion is that the Labour government was even more disasterous than previously thought.
But with incompetant liars like Darling and Brown, with their tax increases on the low paid and bailouts for bankers, in charge that's not surprising.
They have got to you Nick, you used to be reasonably independent of thought; that line is preposterous.
The economy needs managing and managing well for longer than the next soundbite. The Labour Party manifestly did not do this.
That said, if that really is your belief, that the economy is out of anyone's hands, and that is also the Labour Party line, then it's confirmation that Labour should be kept out of power for, well, forever.
A Ponzi scheme based on borrowing - Leverage Labour were truly awful.
Con 298 .. Lab 280 .. LibDem 38 .. SNP 10 .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. Ukip 1 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Speaker 1 .. Ind 0
Conservatives 28 seats short of a majority.
Funny how old-fashioned views of the parties persist. The Conservatives are efficient but heartless, a little like the Wehrmacht 1939 -1942. Labour's heart is in the right place but they're a bit ... gormless. And the LDs like motherhood, apple pie, and foreigners.
No matter what evidence there is to the contrary, that is their brand
Of course it's positive when you're talking about high skilled high earners coming to work in the country, yet most people which are anti-immigration don't see that, they see non-skilled workers, or people with no jobs.
Your average Jonnie Foreigner [IIRC] does not qualify for most benefits until they have worked for two-years [in the UK]. If one assumes UCL used stringent analysis then their sample is from 2000 to 2012. Ergo one-sixth of the sample is highly unlikely to be entitled to state-support and would need to work to sustain themselves. *
Ofcourse I need access to the research to make more informed comment. No doubt some people are happy with copy-n-paste Guardian editorials though....
* Hence the 1995 time-constraint paints a different picture. People who decide to settle tend to become consumers of the gross state-largesse....
A small step...
Ok .... up shortly.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-24140967
http://www.computerweekly.com/blogs/editors-blog/2013/09/10-years-tickling-the-toes-of.html
These projects are by their very nature expensive, and need excellent senior management. I wonder if there is a problem with civil servants with such expertise leaving for more money in the private sector companies implementing the projects?
Con 298 (-8*) .. Leverage Labour-Unite 280 (+22) .. LibDem 38 (-19) .. SNP 10 (+4) .. PC 2 (-1) .. NI 18 .. Ukip 1 (+1) .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Speaker 1* .. Ind 0 (-1)
Which in perspective is not much change - unless you are a LD..
I usually comment on what it seems to me that most people think. And yes, my experience (and with respect I guess I talk to a lot more voters than you?) is that most people think of the economy as largely driven by world events and hard-to-control individual and corporate decisions. As a result of these hard-to-control events, they think that the Government has a certain amount of money to spend, and they do see differences between the parties on what they do with that money.
If you want my personal view, it's that UK Government decisions are very important, though not decisive, in economic development, and that generally Labour does a good job. But that's deacon-thinks-Pope-is-Catholic stuff, and doesn't really add to the interest of pb.