Can someone simplify the Euro elections for me? What’s the most powerful way, psephologically, for me to vote against the racist/nativist/closed helmets in the Brexit Party?
Weep gently on the ballot paper while singing Kumbaya
Yeah, I considered that, but it’s not going to work.
Cry harder
These rightwing tits don’t respond to conventional human emotion. Have you got any better suggestions that might make the reactionary twerps sit up straight?
Can someone simplify the Euro elections for me? What’s the most powerful way, psephologically, for me to vote against the racist/nativist/closed helmets in the Brexit Party?
It depends on your region, but LD, Green or CHUK in England, Nationalist elsewhere.
Can someone simplify the Euro elections for me? What’s the most powerful way, psephologically, for me to vote against the racist/nativist/closed helmets in the Brexit Party?
Weep gently on the ballot paper while singing Kumbaya
Yeah, I considered that, but it’s not going to work.
Cry harder
These rightwing tits don’t respond to conventional human emotion. Have you got any better suggestions that might make the reactionary twerps sit up straight?
Just go up to everyone you meet in the polling station and call them a waycist
> @_Anazina_ said: > Can someone simplify the Euro elections for me? What’s the most powerful way, psephologically, for me to vote against the racist/nativist/closed helmets in the Brexit Party? > > It depends on your region, but LD, Green or CHUK in England, Nationalist elsewhere. > > > In London? _________________
> @Foxy said: > Can someone simplify the Euro elections for me? What’s the most powerful way, psephologically, for me to vote against the racist/nativist/closed helmets in the Brexit Party? > > It depends on your region, but LD, Green or CHUK in England, Nationalist elsewhere.
I will be voting Labour. Against my instinct and better judgment here in NE. Cos we have only 3 MEPs. 2-1 Farage or 2-1 Lab is a no brainer.
> @_Anazina_ said: > Can someone simplify the Euro elections for me? What’s the most powerful way, psephologically, for me to vote against the racist/nativist/closed helmets in the Brexit Party? > > It depends on your region, but LD, Green or CHUK in England, Nationalist elsewhere. > > > In London?
The most recent poll evidence such as it is, is that CHUK will get one seat, but not com e close to a second, with both LD and Green on the borderline, so either of those two would be appropriate.My hunch is all three get one MEP.
> Can someone simplify the Euro elections for me? What’s the most powerful way, psephologically, for me to vote against the racist/nativist/closed helmets in the Brexit Party?
>
> It depends on your region, but LD, Green or CHUK in England, Nationalist elsewhere.
> @_Anazina_ said: > Can someone simplify the Euro elections for me? What’s the most powerful way, psephologically, for me to vote against the racist/nativist/closed helmets in the Brexit Party?
Can someone simplify the Euro elections for me? What’s the most powerful way, psephologically, for me to vote against the racist/nativist/closed helmets in the Brexit Party?
Weep gently on the ballot paper while singing Kumbaya
Yeah, I considered that, but it’s not going to work.
Cry harder
These rightwing tits don’t respond to conventional human emotion. Have you got any better suggestions that might make the reactionary twerps sit up straight?
Just go up to everyone you meet in the polling station and call them a waycist
Can someone simplify the Euro elections for me? What’s the most powerful way, psephologically, for me to vote against the racist/nativist/closed helmets in the Brexit Party?
Weep gently on the ballot paper while singing Kumbaya
Yeah, I considered that, but it’s not going to work.
Cry harder
These rightwing tits don’t respond to conventional human emotion. Have you got any better suggestions that might make the reactionary twerps sit up straight?
Just go up to everyone you meet in the polling station and call them a waycist
Can someone simplify the Euro elections for me? What’s the most powerful way, psephologically, for me to vote against the racist/nativist/closed helmets in the Brexit Party?
Weep gently on the ballot paper while singing Kumbaya
Yeah, I considered that, but it’s not going to work.
Cry harder
These rightwing tits don’t respond to conventional human emotion. Have you got any better suggestions that might make the reactionary twerps sit up straight?
Just go up to everyone you meet in the polling station and call them a waycist
> @_Anazina_ said: > Can someone simplify the Euro elections for me? What’s the most powerful way, psephologically, for me to vote against the racist/nativist/closed helmets in the Brexit Party? > > It depends on your region, but LD, Green or CHUK in England, Nationalist elsewhere. > > > In London?
London, I think has enough seats and is remainy enough that it might be possible to return an LD, a Green and a CHUK, in which case it would be your free choice of Remain parties rather than tactical voting.
I am using polling and a spot of recollection, and I know you so love polling, but what else is there to do - if you want an impression of who might be in with a chance and who isn't it's still at least one step above the Ouija board.
So the way to oppose the racist/nativist/closed knobend prick Brexit Party and their paramilitary wing UKIP is to vote Liberal Democrat? Fair enough, if that what it takes.
I think Vince is a useless bogger however. Bring in someone else, I would advise.
Can someone simplify the Euro elections for me? What’s the most powerful way, psephologically, for me to vote against the racist/nativist/closed helmets in the Brexit Party?
Weep gently on the ballot paper while singing Kumbaya
Yeah, I considered that, but it’s not going to work.
Cry harder
These rightwing tits don’t respond to conventional human emotion. Have you got any better suggestions that might make the reactionary twerps sit up straight?
Just go up to everyone you meet in the polling station and call them a waycist
So the way to oppose the racist/nativist/closed knobend prick Brexit Party and their paramilitary wing UKIP is to vote Liberal Democrat? Fair enough, if that what it takes.
I think Vince is a useless bogger however. Bring in someone else, I would advise.
Have you been on the appletise? Seem awfully aggressive
> Can someone simplify the Euro elections for me? What’s the most powerful way, psephologically, for me to vote against the racist/nativist/closed helmets in the Brexit Party?
>
> It depends on your region, but LD, Green or CHUK in England, Nationalist elsewhere.
>
>
> In London?
London, I think has enough seats and is remainy enough that it might be possible to return an LD, a Green and a CHUK, in which case it would be your free choice of Remain parties rather than tactical voting.
I am using polling and a spot of recollection, and I know you so love polling, but what else is there to do - if you want an impression of who might be in with a chance and who isn't it's still at least one step above the Ouija board.
Can someone simplify the Euro elections for me? What’s the most powerful way, psephologically, for me to vote against the racist/nativist/closed helmets in the Brexit Party?
Weep gently on the ballot paper while singing Kumbaya
Yeah, I considered that, but it’s not going to work.
Cry harder
These rightwing tits don’t respond to conventional human emotion. Have you got any better suggestions that might make the reactionary twerps sit up straight?
Just go up to everyone you meet in the polling station and call them a waycist
So the way to oppose the racist/nativist/closed knobend prick Brexit Party and their paramilitary wing UKIP is to vote Liberal Democrat? Fair enough, if that what it takes.
I think Vince is a useless bogger however. Bring in someone else, I would advise.
Have you been on the appletise? Seem awfully aggressive
He is poor. I think he would be better leaving the stage for Moran or AN Other.
So the way to oppose the racist/nativist/closed knobend prick Brexit Party and their paramilitary wing UKIP is to vote Liberal Democrat? Fair enough, if that what it takes.
I think Vince is a useless bogger however. Bring in someone else, I would advise.
Have you been on the appletise? Seem awfully aggressive
He is poor. I think he would be better leaving the stage for Moran or AN Other.
Can someone simplify the Euro elections for me? What’s the most powerful way, psephologically, for me to vote against the racist/nativist/closed helmets in the Brexit Party?
Weep gently on the ballot paper while singing Kumbaya
Yeah, I considered that, but it’s not going to work.
Cry harder
These rightwing tits don’t respond to conventional human emotion. Have you got any better suggestions that might make the reactionary twerps sit up straight?
Just go up to everyone you meet in the polling station and call them a waycist
> @viewcode said: > I suppose the question is: if there's no incentive to launch or fund campaigns or come up with manifestos or anything, and you are (however misguidedly) labouring under the belief it's all irrelevant as they won't be taking up their seats, then why stand candidates at all? > > > > Surely you bodyswerve the awful results by simply not taking part, and then you can pretend you'd have actually achieved any result if the whole thing wasn't so completely beneath you. > > Good point. I am surprised the Cons did not take that approach. Seems all downside and no upside. Why punch yourself in the face? > > Even worse, there's a precedent. IIRC Labour boycotted the inaugural popular EP elections in 1979.
So the way to oppose the racist/nativist/closed knobend prick Brexit Party and their paramilitary wing UKIP is to vote Liberal Democrat? Fair enough, if that what it takes.
I think Vince is a useless bogger however. Bring in someone else, I would advise.
Have you been on the appletise? Seem awfully aggressive
He is poor. I think he would be better leaving the stage for Moran or AN Other.
Eh?
Cable. I think he is poor. I would go for Moran despite the awkward fisticuffs business.
> @AndyJS said: > > @_Anazina_ said: > > Can someone simplify the Euro elections for me? What’s the most powerful way, psephologically, for me to vote against the racist/nativist/closed helmets in the Brexit Party? > > LDs in most places.
Depends if you want to back a pure Remain party (in which case LD looks the safest bet) or try to stop Brexit coming first (in which case Labour is best).
Tony Slattery was quite unsettlingly nervous, awkward and possibly drunk on This Week... I think he might have logged on here and started posting afterwards...
Tony Slattery was quite unsettlingly nervous, awkward and possibly drunk on This Week... I think he might have logged on here and started posting afterwards...
Tony Slattery was quite unsettlingly nervous, awkward and possibly drunk on This Week... I think he might have logged on here and started posting afterwards...
Tony Slattery was quite unsettlingly nervous, awkward and possibly drunk on This Week... I think he might have logged on here and started posting afterwards...
Tony Slattery was quite unsettlingly nervous, awkward and possibly drunk on This Week... I think he might have logged on here and started posting afterwards...
Tony Slattery is bipolar and has had multiple nervous breakdowns. Whenever I am tempted to decry celebrities' shallow upgrading of their within-normal-range problems to mental conditions, I have to check myself and remind me that Tony Slattery, a rather talented comedian in his time, is properly mentally ill and is now a barely functioning human being.
Tony Slattery was quite unsettlingly nervous, awkward and possibly drunk on This Week... I think he might have logged on here and started posting afterwards...
Tony Slattery is bipolar and has had multiple nervous breakdowns. Whenever I am tempted to decry celebrities' shallow upgrading of their within-normal-range problems to mental conditions, I have to check myself and remind me that Tony Slattery, a rather talented comedian in his time, is properly mentally ill and is now a barely functioning human being.
> @viewcode said: > Tony Slattery was quite unsettlingly nervous, awkward and possibly drunk on This Week... I think he might have logged on here and started posting afterwards... > > Tony Slattery is bipolar and has had multiple nervous breakdowns. Whenever I am tempted to decry celebrities' shallow upgrading of their within-normal-range problems to mental conditions, I have to check myself and remind me that Tony Slattery, a rather talented comedian in his time, is properly mentally ill and is now a barely functioning human being.
> @FrancisUrquhart said: > > @viewcode said: > > Tony Slattery was quite unsettlingly nervous, awkward and possibly drunk on This Week... I think he might have logged on here and started posting afterwards... > > > > Tony Slattery is bipolar and has had multiple nervous breakdowns. Whenever I am tempted to decry celebrities' shallow upgrading of their within-normal-range problems to mental conditions, I have to check myself and remind me that Tony Slattery, a rather talented comedian in his time, is properly mentally ill and is now a barely functioning human being. > > Why was he on This Week?
As part of a 'been through years of personal Hell and come out the other side a stronger person' narrative... only it didn't work out like that.
I feel very sorry for him, and am disappointed that the This Week production team allowed this to happen.
Landslide. Is this a pointer for #Brexit like the locals were?
No it’s the Upminster and Cranham residents association - a tour de force like no other which could even out rally Farage and Widdecombe!!
You can be pretty certain however that the Brexit party will top the poll in Cranham and Havering more generally on 23 May. The borough voted 75 per cent leave and Labour remain weak there and the LDs and barely exist locally.
> @SirBenjamin said: > > @FrancisUrquhart said: > > > @viewcode said: > > > Tony Slattery was quite unsettlingly nervous, awkward and possibly drunk on This Week... I think he might have logged on here and started posting afterwards... > > > > > > Tony Slattery is bipolar and has had multiple nervous breakdowns. Whenever I am tempted to decry celebrities' shallow upgrading of their within-normal-range problems to mental conditions, I have to check myself and remind me that Tony Slattery, a rather talented comedian in his time, is properly mentally ill and is now a barely functioning human being. > > > > Why was he on This Week? > > > As part of a 'been through years of personal Hell and come out the other side a stronger person' narrative... only it didn't work out like that. > > I feel very sorry for him, and am disappointed that the This Week production team allowed this to happen.
I presuming somebody on This Week read the recent article in the Graudian and thought he would be an interesting guest. I read the article and thought the opposite, due to him clearly being extremely damaged / fragile individual.
> > Tony Slattery was quite unsettlingly nervous, awkward and possibly drunk on This Week... I think he might have logged on here and started posting afterwards...
> >
> > Tony Slattery is bipolar and has had multiple nervous breakdowns. Whenever I am tempted to decry celebrities' shallow upgrading of their within-normal-range problems to mental conditions, I have to check myself and remind me that Tony Slattery, a rather talented comedian in his time, is properly mentally ill and is now a barely functioning human being.
>
> Why was he on This Week?
As part of a 'been through years of personal Hell and come out the other side a stronger person' narrative... only it didn't work out like that.
I feel very sorry for him, and am disappointed that the This Week production team allowed this to happen.
God, me too. There's a recent interview he gave to the Guardian, and reading between the lines he's not in a good situation: no money and sores on his legs.
I think he got on because of two things: he's reuniting with the WLIIA folks for a show at the Edinburgh Fringe this Autumn, and Mental Health Awareness Week (UK) is next week.
Theresa May is facing renewed anger from Brexiteers after Tory European election leaflets included a link to a website that names and shames MPs who voted against her withdrawal deal.
In a move likely to further enrage them, the leaflet fails to say that an independent trading policy would be a benefit of Brexit.
The leaflet shows the party is effectively using the campaign to criticise the 34 Tory Brexiteers who call themselves the “Spartans” and the second referendum supporters who declined to back Mrs May’s deal in March, causing it to fall in the Commons.
> @viewcode said: > Tony Slattery was quite unsettlingly nervous, awkward and possibly drunk on This Week... I think he might have logged on here and started posting afterwards... > > Tony Slattery is bipolar and has had multiple nervous breakdowns. Whenever I am tempted to decry celebrities' shallow upgrading of their within-normal-range problems to mental conditions, I have to check myself and remind me that Tony Slattery, a rather talented comedian in his time, is properly mentally ill and is now a barely functioning human being.
I had a bit of a shock when I saw a current photo of Tony Slattery a few weeks ago because it doesn't seem all that long ago that he was a fairly youthful figure on the comedy circuit. For instance, I seem to remember that about 15 years ago he looked about 35 or thereabouts.
Theresa May is facing renewed anger from Brexiteers after Tory European election leaflets included a link to a website that names and shames MPs who voted against her withdrawal deal.
In a move likely to further enrage them, the leaflet fails to say that an independent trading policy would be a benefit of Brexit.
The leaflet shows the party is effectively using the campaign to criticise the 34 Tory Brexiteers who call themselves the “Spartans” and the second referendum supporters who declined to back Mrs May’s deal in March, causing it to fall in the Commons.
Theresa May is facing renewed anger from Brexiteers after Tory European election leaflets included a link to a website that names and shames MPs who voted against her withdrawal deal.
In a move likely to further enrage them, the leaflet fails to say that an independent trading policy would be a benefit of Brexit.
The leaflet shows the party is effectively using the campaign to criticise the 34 Tory Brexiteers who call themselves the “Spartans” and the second referendum supporters who declined to back Mrs May’s deal in March, causing it to fall in the Commons.
EDIT - if you enter your postcode and email it shows your MP's voting record and invites you to email them to support the deal.
Dominic Grieve has not voted for the Brexit Deal:
Voted against leaving the EU with a deal. 15th January 2019 AGAINST Voted against leaving the EU with a deal. 12th March 2019 AGAINST Voted against leaving the EU with a deal. 29th March 2019 AGAINST
Your Member of Parliament is Dominic Grieve MP.
Tell Dominic Grieve to back the deal.
The Brexit deal delivers on the referendum result in the national interest. It’s a chance for everyone to come together, however you voted. But if your MP doesn’t keep supporting it, we’ll have more uncertainty and more division.
Email your MP to tell them to back the Brexit deal now:
> @Foxy said: > Can someone simplify the Euro elections for me? What’s the most powerful way, psephologically, for me to vote against the racist/nativist/closed helmets in the Brexit Party? > > It depends on your region, but LD, Green or CHUK in England, Nationalist elsewhere.
Some of the regions are too small for that to work. Sadly for the Tiggers, unless they can conjure some momentum from somewhere, they're going to be squeezed in most regions.
> @Foxy said: > > @_Anazina_ said: > > Can someone simplify the Euro elections for me? What’s the most powerful way, psephologically, for me to vote against the racist/nativist/closed helmets in the Brexit Party? > > > > It depends on your region, but LD, Green or CHUK in England, Nationalist elsewhere. > > > > > > In London? > > The most recent poll evidence such as it is, is that CHUK will get one seat, but not com e close to a second, with both LD and Green on the borderline, so either of those two would be appropriate.My hunch is all three get one MEP.
> > Tony Slattery was quite unsettlingly nervous, awkward and possibly drunk on This Week... I think he might have logged on here and started posting afterwards...
> >
> > Tony Slattery is bipolar and has had multiple nervous breakdowns. Whenever I am tempted to decry celebrities' shallow upgrading of their within-normal-range problems to mental conditions, I have to check myself and remind me that Tony Slattery, a rather talented comedian in his time, is properly mentally ill and is now a barely functioning human being.
>
> Why was he on This Week?
As part of a 'been through years of personal Hell and come out the other side a stronger person' narrative... only it didn't work out like that.
I feel very sorry for him, and am disappointed that the This Week production team allowed this to happen.
God, me too. There's a recent interview he gave to the Guardian, and reading between the lines he's not in a good situation: no money and sores on his legs.
I think he got on because of two things: he's reuniting with the WLIIA folks for a show at the Edinburgh Fringe this Autumn, and Mental Health Awareness Week (UK) is next week.
As a remainer, I have decided that I am going to vote LD for the first time in my life as its the best way of showing my disapproval of the shower that the Tories are at the moment. Its a frightening thought that their stupidity might result in a Labour Govt.
Perhaps it might bring them to their senses. Every remainer should vote LD>
> @CarlottaVance said: > Can't find any 'naming & shaming': > > https://www.backthebrexitdeal.com > > EDIT - if you enter your postcode and email it shows your MP's voting record and invites you to email them to support the deal.
> @SquareRoot said: > As a remainer, I have decided that I am going to vote LD for the first time in my life as its the best way of showing my disapproval of the shower that the Tories are at the moment. Its a frightening thought that their stupidity might result in a Labour Govt. > > Perhaps it might bring them to their senses. Every remainer should vote LD>
It's a great pity that the LDs and Greens couldn't agree a joint ticket there in the East.
As a remainer, I have decided that I am going to vote LD for the first time in my life as its the best way of showing my disapproval of the shower that the Tories are at the moment. Its a frightening thought that their stupidity might result in a Labour Govt.
Perhaps it might bring them to their senses. Every remainer should vote LD
Polling card update. Yesterday I reported no poll card; a couple of hours later it was delivered by HM Royal Mail, along with shiny leaflets from Labour and the Brexit Party whose slogan, "changing politics for good", must make Nigel Farage mildly grateful Chuka's mob bottled out, given the possibility of confusion.
> @DecrepitJohnL said: > Polling card update. Yesterday I reported no poll card; a couple of hours later it was delivered by HM Royal Mail, along with shiny leaflets from Labour and the Brexit Party whose slogan, "changing politics for good", must make Nigel Farage mildly grateful Chuka's mob bottled out, given the possibility of confusion. > > ETA: apparently Chuk is putting up candidates.
Unless you live in a very rural area, your council is wasting money posting its poll cards!
> @Morris_Dancer said: > Good morning, everyone. > > Will give the podcast a listen a bit later (post-coffee). Be interesting to see what the view of the locals and, ahead, the EU elections is.
Kieran has included a (somewhat strained) F1 reference especially for you.
> @ydoethur said: > As a remainer, I have decided that I am going to vote LD for the first time in my life as its the best way of showing my disapproval of the shower that the Tories are at the moment. Its a frightening thought that their stupidity might result in a Labour Govt. > > Perhaps it might bring them to their senses. Every remainer should vote LD > > Our politicians have senses?
It's got to be debatable doesn't it? They can't hear what the people told them and they can't see what is right in front of their face. Some of them are touched, however.
> @DecrepitJohnL said: > Labour's leaflet barely mentions Europe and wants us to vote against austerity and incompetence (the jokes write themselves).
Labour always seems to run the same campaign regardless of the actual election. Their local election campaigning is also about austerity and saving the NHS, despite councillors inability to do much about either, apart from campaigning.
The podcast may be right that Remain voters are more motivated to vote in the EUs right now. I wonder whether and how polling companies are allowing for differential turnout. Farage’s principal challenge is to motivate his own side (which tbf he is usually good at)
> @Casino_Royale said: > My current expectations are for Labour and Brexit Party to underperform. I think the LDs might end up running Labour close. > > I expect the Conservatives showing to be very poor, but I could see them getting anything from 8%-14% depending on just how loyal their core is. > > I suspect it’s still there. It’s not the core loyal Conservatives who are being heard at the moment.
I think they will end up with most of the soft remainer element of the usual Tory vote.
> @DavidL said: > > @ydoethur said: > > As a remainer, I have decided that I am going to vote LD for the first time in my life as its the best way of showing my disapproval of the shower that the Tories are at the moment. Its a frightening thought that their stupidity might result in a Labour Govt. > > > > Perhaps it might bring them to their senses. Every remainer should vote LD > > > > Our politicians have senses? > > It's got to be debatable doesn't it? They can't hear what the people told them and they can't see what is right in front of their face. Some of them are touched, however.
They have senses, it the common sense they lack... especially the ERG loons who are so full of hatred, it defies belief how anyone could function on that level of inner bile is beyond me.
There was an interesting article in the Economist last week. EU retaliatory tariffs were designed to do least damage to the EU. China retaliatory tariffs were designed to do most damage to Trump voters, irrespective of the consequences to China. Moral of the story; 'Don't start trade wars with autocracies who don't worry what their own voters think'
> @IanB2 said: > > @Casino_Royale said: > > My current expectations are for Labour and Brexit Party to underperform. I think the LDs might end up running Labour close. > > > > I expect the Conservatives showing to be very poor, but I could see them getting anything from 8%-14% depending on just how loyal their core is. > > > > I suspect it’s still there. It’s not the core loyal Conservatives who are being heard at the moment. > > I think they will end up with most of the soft remainer element of the usual Tory vote.
I think Philip May is a maybe, and @Big_G looks probable. I am sure there are others, somewhere.
> @edmundintokyo said: > > @DecrepitJohnL said: > > Blatant email address harvesting. > > Yup. The email addresses aren't confirmed so public-spirited citizens will fill it with junk.
And choosing a random SS11 postcode would nicely fill Mark Gino Francois’s inbox with critical emails from his own party.
> Labour's leaflet barely mentions Europe and wants us to vote against austerity and incompetence (the jokes write themselves).
Labour always seems to run the same campaign regardless of the actual election. Their local election campaigning is also about austerity and saving the NHS, despite councillors inability to do much about either, apart from campaigning.
In 2015, the local Labour candidate Janos Toth ran a very energetic campaign - leaflets, door to door canvassing, meetings, hustings, Old Uncle Tom Cobbleigh and all...entirely about how the local health service reorganisation would have a negative impact on the local population.
The local health service that was being abolished was Mid-Staffordshire NHS Trust.
> @IanB2 said: > The podcast may be right that Remain voters are more motivated to vote in the EUs right now. I wonder whether and how polling companies are allowing for differential turnout. Farage’s principal challenge is to motivate his own side (which tbf he is usually good at)
I think that very possible. Turnout will be low, and only the most motivated will vote. I think that Remainers are mostly habitual voters, so will. Certainly some Brexiteers are too, particularly the wealthy retired, but will those one off voters that turned out in the referendum, possibly for the only time in their life? My hunch is not.
> @Foxy said: > > @IanB2 said: > > The podcast may be right that Remain voters are more motivated to vote in the EUs right now. I wonder whether and how polling companies are allowing for differential turnout. Farage’s principal challenge is to motivate his own side (which tbf he is usually good at) > > I think that very possible. Turnout will be low, and only the most motivated will vote. I think that Remainers are mostly habitual voters, so will. Certainly some Brexiteers are too, particularly the wealthy retired, but will those one off voters that turned out in the referendum, possibly for the only time in their life? My hunch is not.
Hopefully the big difference from previous EUels will be the turnout of younger people.
> @DavidL said: > > @IanB2 said: > > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > My current expectations are for Labour and Brexit Party to underperform. I think the LDs might end up running Labour close. > > > > > > I expect the Conservatives showing to be very poor, but I could see them getting anything from 8%-14% depending on just how loyal their core is. > > > > > > I suspect it’s still there. It’s not the core loyal Conservatives who are being heard at the moment. > > > > I think they will end up with most of the soft remainer element of the usual Tory vote. > > I think Philip May is a maybe, and @Big_G looks probable. I am sure there are others, somewhere.
BigG looks doubtful to me, but my mother is a probable.
> @CarlottaVance said: > In other news Trump is at it again: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48210313 > > > > This won't do the markets much good. > > There was an interesting article in the Economist last week. EU retaliatory tariffs were designed to do least damage to the EU. China retaliatory tariffs were designed to do most damage to Trump voters, irrespective of the consequences to China. Moral of the story; 'Don't start trade wars with autocracies who don't worry what their own voters think'
Our problem is that ever since WW2 our policy has been to get as close as possible to the USA. This was predicated not only on the US being most powerful nation but also, generally, the adult in the room.
Now we have a US leader for whom the word maverick is somewhat kind. Their behaviour towards Iran is outrageous as is their approach to Israel and their bullying of European businesses into compliance an abuse of a dominant position. Their threats about access to intelligence should we use Huewai have to be taken seriously and their trade "policy" is destabilising the world economy. I can't think of a time when our relations with the US were as bad as this. Why May thought it a good idea to invite Trump right now is beyond me. But then most of what she does is.
> @IanB2 said: > > @DavidL said: > > > @IanB2 said: > > > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > > My current expectations are for Labour and Brexit Party to underperform. I think the LDs might end up running Labour close. > > > > > > > > I expect the Conservatives showing to be very poor, but I could see them getting anything from 8%-14% depending on just how loyal their core is. > > > > > > > > I suspect it’s still there. It’s not the core loyal Conservatives who are being heard at the moment. > > > > > > I think they will end up with most of the soft remainer element of the usual Tory vote. > > > > I think Philip May is a maybe, and @Big_G looks probable. I am sure there are others, somewhere. > > > BigG looks doubtful to me, but my mother is a probable.
Mine too. She never votes anything else. She really liked John Major.
> @IanB2 said: > > @DavidL said: > > > @IanB2 said: > > > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > > My current expectations are for Labour and Brexit Party to underperform. I think the LDs might end up running Labour close. > > > > > > > > I expect the Conservatives showing to be very poor, but I could see them getting anything from 8%-14% depending on just how loyal their core is. > > > > > > > > I suspect it’s still there. It’s not the core loyal Conservatives who are being heard at the moment. > > > > > > I think they will end up with most of the soft remainer element of the usual Tory vote. > > > > I think Philip May is a maybe, and @Big_G looks probable. I am sure there are others, somewhere. > > > BigG looks doubtful to me, but my mother is a probable.
No he declared himself voting for the party, if not May, yesterday. His wife wasn't so sure.
> @IanB2 said: > > @Casino_Royale said: > > My current expectations are for Labour and Brexit Party to underperform. I think the LDs might end up running Labour close. > > > > I expect the Conservatives showing to be very poor, but I could see them getting anything from 8%-14% depending on just how loyal their core is. > > > > I suspect it’s still there. It’s not the core loyal Conservatives who are being heard at the moment. > > I think they will end up with most of the soft remainer element of the usual Tory vote.
That would be me as of yesterday. While no great fan of May I'm staggered that so many of my Tory friends really think that another leader would have got a better deal.
> @Foxy said: > > @IanB2 said: > > > @DavidL said: > > > > @IanB2 said: > > > > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > > > My current expectations are for Labour and Brexit Party to underperform. I think the LDs might end up running Labour close. > > > > > > > > > > I expect the Conservatives showing to be very poor, but I could see them getting anything from 8%-14% depending on just how loyal their core is. > > > > > > > > > > I suspect it’s still there. It’s not the core loyal Conservatives who are being heard at the moment. > > > > > > > > I think they will end up with most of the soft remainer element of the usual Tory vote. > > > > > > I think Philip May is a maybe, and @Big_G looks probable. I am sure there are others, somewhere. > > > > > > BigG looks doubtful to me, but my mother is a probable. > > Mine too. She never votes anything else. She really liked John Major.
... but John Major is a Remainer , and the current Tory party leadership aren't.
That would be me as of yesterday. While no great fan of May I'm staggered that so many of my Tory friends really think that another leader would have got a better deal.
Useful for the recipients, of all parties, as well, if they are organised. As a councillor I used to get batches of standard emails from such sites, particularly during elections, most commonly from cycling, environmental or animal welfare campaigns. It was a useful way of identifying voters interested in these particular issues, as well as their email addresses (with the appropriate small print included at the bottom of the reply to cover off the data retention issues).
> @felix said: > > @IanB2 said: > > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > My current expectations are for Labour and Brexit Party to underperform. I think the LDs might end up running Labour close. > > > > > > I expect the Conservatives showing to be very poor, but I could see them getting anything from 8%-14% depending on just how loyal their core is. > > > > > > I suspect it’s still there. It’s not the core loyal Conservatives who are being heard at the moment. > > > > I think they will end up with most of the soft remainer element of the usual Tory vote. > > That would be me as of yesterday. While no great fan of May I'm staggered that so many of my Tory friends really think that another leader would have got a better deal.
I agree that her deal was probably as good, if not better, than might reasonably have been expected of anyone. My problem with her is that she is completely incapable of selling it, incapable of building any form of consensus and apparently willing to have us caught in paralysis indefinitely without any clear idea of how to change it.
> @DavidL said: > > @felix said: > > > @IanB2 said: > > > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > > My current expectations are for Labour and Brexit Party to underperform. I think the LDs might end up running Labour close. > > > > > > > > I expect the Conservatives showing to be very poor, but I could see them getting anything from 8%-14% depending on just how loyal their core is. > > > > > > > > I suspect it’s still there. It’s not the core loyal Conservatives who are being heard at the moment. > > > > > > I think they will end up with most of the soft remainer element of the usual Tory vote. > > > > That would be me as of yesterday. While no great fan of May I'm staggered that so many of my Tory friends really think that another leader would have got a better deal. > > I agree that her deal was probably as good, if not better, than might reasonably have been expected of anyone. My problem with her is that she is completely incapable of selling it, incapable of building any form of consensus and apparently willing to have us caught in paralysis indefinitely without any clear idea of how to change it.
Look to the Leavers. It was opposed by pretty well all the non-payroll Leave MPs in the first meaningful vote and its converts since have been reluctant rather than zealots. The inability of Leavers to celebrate compromising (and now it is seen as an active ill by many Leavers) is what is scuppering Brexit.
> > > My current expectations are for Labour and Brexit Party to underperform. I think the LDs might end up running Labour close.
> > >
> > > I expect the Conservatives showing to be very poor, but I could see them getting anything from 8%-14% depending on just how loyal their core is.
> > >
> > > I suspect it’s still there. It’s not the core loyal Conservatives who are being heard at the moment.
> >
> > I think they will end up with most of the soft remainer element of the usual Tory vote.
>
> That would be me as of yesterday. While no great fan of May I'm staggered that so many of my Tory friends really think that another leader would have got a better deal.
I agree that her deal was probably as good, if not better, than might reasonably have been expected of anyone. My problem with her is that she is completely incapable of selling it, incapable of building any form of consensus and apparently willing to have us caught in paralysis indefinitely without any clear idea of how to change it.
> @Casino_Royale said: > > @IanB2 said: > > > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > > My current expectations are for Labour and Brexit Party to underperform. I think the LDs might end up running Labour close. > > > > > > > > I expect the Conservatives showing to be very poor, but I could see them getting anything from 8%-14% depending on just how loyal their core is. > > > > > > > > I suspect it’s still there. It’s not the core loyal Conservatives who are being heard at the moment. > > > > > > I think they will end up with most of the soft remainer element of the usual Tory vote. > > > > I think Philip May is a maybe, and @Big_G looks probable. I am sure there are others, somewhere. > > And JohnO, TSE and Sean Fear, and probably myself, unhappy as we are. > > There are no good options in what is a very silly and pointless election.
The election has a lot of point. It demonstrates the intellectual bankruptcy of Leavers, who can oppose but cannot propose.
> @logical_song said: > > @Foxy said: > > > @IanB2 said: > > > > @DavidL said: > > > > > @IanB2 said: > > > > > > @Casino_Royale said: > > > > > > My current expectations are for Labour and Brexit Party to underperform. I think the LDs might end up running Labour close. > > > > > > > > > > > > I expect the Conservatives showing to be very poor, but I could see them getting anything from 8%-14% depending on just how loyal their core is. > > > > > > > > > > > > I suspect it’s still there. It’s not the core loyal Conservatives who are being heard at the moment. > > > > > > > > > > I think they will end up with most of the soft remainer element of the usual Tory vote. > > > > > > > > I think Philip May is a maybe, and @Big_G looks probable. I am sure there are others, somewhere. > > > > > > > > > BigG looks doubtful to me, but my mother is a probable. > > > > Mine too. She never votes anything else. She really liked John Major. > > ... but John Major is a Remainer , and the current Tory party leadership aren't.
I learned many years ago that political arguments with my mother were futile. The answer to any and every challenge is “but we can’t let Labour in” and there is nowhere to go thereafter.
Interesting that we might be seeing the fading away of unthinking tribal voting behaviour like that amongst otherwise unpolitical people on both left and right.
Comments
Another cockend speaks
Or you could try self-immolation. Whichever's preferable.
In London?
> Can someone simplify the Euro elections for me? What’s the most powerful way, psephologically, for me to vote against the racist/nativist/closed helmets in the Brexit Party?
>
> It depends on your region, but LD, Green or CHUK in England, Nationalist elsewhere.
>
>
> In London?
_________________
Lib Dem for sure
> Can someone simplify the Euro elections for me? What’s the most powerful way, psephologically, for me to vote against the racist/nativist/closed helmets in the Brexit Party?
>
> It depends on your region, but LD, Green or CHUK in England, Nationalist elsewhere.
I will be voting Labour. Against my instinct and better judgment here in NE. Cos we have only 3 MEPs. 2-1 Farage or 2-1 Lab is a no brainer.
> Can someone simplify the Euro elections for me? What’s the most powerful way, psephologically, for me to vote against the racist/nativist/closed helmets in the Brexit Party?
>
> It depends on your region, but LD, Green or CHUK in England, Nationalist elsewhere.
>
>
> In London?
The most recent poll evidence such as it is, is that CHUK will get one seat, but not com e close to a second, with both LD and Green on the borderline, so either of those two would be appropriate.My hunch is all three get one MEP.
> Can someone simplify the Euro elections for me? What’s the most powerful way, psephologically, for me to vote against the racist/nativist/closed helmets in the Brexit Party?
LDs in most places.
Waycist?
> Can someone simplify the Euro elections for me? What’s the most powerful way, psephologically, for me to vote against the racist/nativist/closed helmets in the Brexit Party?
>
> It depends on your region, but LD, Green or CHUK in England, Nationalist elsewhere.
>
>
> In London?
London, I think has enough seats and is remainy enough that it might be possible to return an LD, a Green and a CHUK, in which case it would be your free choice of Remain parties rather than tactical voting.
I am using polling and a spot of recollection, and I know you so love polling, but what else is there to do - if you want an impression of who might be in with a chance and who isn't it's still at least one step above the Ouija board.
I think Vince is a useless bogger however. Bring in someone else, I would advise.
A small half step but thanks, all noted.
> I suppose the question is: if there's no incentive to launch or fund campaigns or come up with manifestos or anything, and you are (however misguidedly) labouring under the belief it's all irrelevant as they won't be taking up their seats, then why stand candidates at all?
>
>
>
> Surely you bodyswerve the awful results by simply not taking part, and then you can pretend you'd have actually achieved any result if the whole thing wasn't so completely beneath you.
>
> Good point. I am surprised the Cons did not take that approach. Seems all downside and no upside. Why punch yourself in the face?
>
> Even worse, there's a precedent. IIRC Labour boycotted the inaugural popular EP elections in 1979.
Not so!
> > @_Anazina_ said:
> > Can someone simplify the Euro elections for me? What’s the most powerful way, psephologically, for me to vote against the racist/nativist/closed helmets in the Brexit Party?
>
> LDs in most places.
Depends if you want to back a pure Remain party (in which case LD looks the safest bet) or try to stop Brexit coming first (in which case Labour is best).
Scotland Yard said officers were called to the scene of a "firearm discharge" on High Road in Ilford, east London.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-48223235
What is RA?
> Tony Slattery was quite unsettlingly nervous, awkward and possibly drunk on This Week... I think he might have logged on here and started posting afterwards...
>
> Tony Slattery is bipolar and has had multiple nervous breakdowns. Whenever I am tempted to decry celebrities' shallow upgrading of their within-normal-range problems to mental conditions, I have to check myself and remind me that Tony Slattery, a rather talented comedian in his time, is properly mentally ill and is now a barely functioning human being.
Why was he on This Week?
> Landslide. Is this a pointer for #Brexit like the locals were?
>
>
>
>
>
> What is RA?
Residents' association.
Good night!
> > @viewcode said:
> > Tony Slattery was quite unsettlingly nervous, awkward and possibly drunk on This Week... I think he might have logged on here and started posting afterwards...
> >
> > Tony Slattery is bipolar and has had multiple nervous breakdowns. Whenever I am tempted to decry celebrities' shallow upgrading of their within-normal-range problems to mental conditions, I have to check myself and remind me that Tony Slattery, a rather talented comedian in his time, is properly mentally ill and is now a barely functioning human being.
>
> Why was he on This Week?
As part of a 'been through years of personal Hell and come out the other side a stronger person' narrative... only it didn't work out like that.
I feel very sorry for him, and am disappointed that the This Week production team allowed this to happen.
You can be pretty certain however that the Brexit party will top the poll in Cranham and Havering more generally on 23 May. The borough voted 75 per cent leave and Labour remain weak there and the LDs and barely exist locally.
Greens did surprisingly well though.
> > @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > > @viewcode said:
> > > Tony Slattery was quite unsettlingly nervous, awkward and possibly drunk on This Week... I think he might have logged on here and started posting afterwards...
> > >
> > > Tony Slattery is bipolar and has had multiple nervous breakdowns. Whenever I am tempted to decry celebrities' shallow upgrading of their within-normal-range problems to mental conditions, I have to check myself and remind me that Tony Slattery, a rather talented comedian in his time, is properly mentally ill and is now a barely functioning human being.
> >
> > Why was he on This Week?
>
>
> As part of a 'been through years of personal Hell and come out the other side a stronger person' narrative... only it didn't work out like that.
>
> I feel very sorry for him, and am disappointed that the This Week production team allowed this to happen.
I presuming somebody on This Week read the recent article in the Graudian and thought he would be an interesting guest. I read the article and thought the opposite, due to him clearly being extremely damaged / fragile individual.
I think he got on because of two things: he's reuniting with the WLIIA folks for a show at the Edinburgh Fringe this Autumn, and Mental Health Awareness Week (UK) is next week.
Just seen the video, sad to see given just how brilliant he was back in the day.
In a move likely to further enrage them, the leaflet fails to say that an independent trading policy would be a benefit of Brexit.
The leaflet shows the party is effectively using the campaign to criticise the 34 Tory Brexiteers who call themselves the “Spartans” and the second referendum supporters who declined to back Mrs May’s deal in March, causing it to fall in the Commons.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/may-euro-elections-brexit-leaflet-shames-tory-mps-who-blocked-deal-sh6fn58t8
> Tony Slattery was quite unsettlingly nervous, awkward and possibly drunk on This Week... I think he might have logged on here and started posting afterwards...
>
> Tony Slattery is bipolar and has had multiple nervous breakdowns. Whenever I am tempted to decry celebrities' shallow upgrading of their within-normal-range problems to mental conditions, I have to check myself and remind me that Tony Slattery, a rather talented comedian in his time, is properly mentally ill and is now a barely functioning human being.
I had a bit of a shock when I saw a current photo of Tony Slattery a few weeks ago because it doesn't seem all that long ago that he was a fairly youthful figure on the comedy circuit. For instance, I seem to remember that about 15 years ago he looked about 35 or thereabouts.
https://www.backthebrexitdeal.com
EDIT - if you enter your postcode and email it shows your MP's voting record and invites you to email them to support the deal.
https://twitter.com/rbrharrison/status/1126527986763739137
> Can someone simplify the Euro elections for me? What’s the most powerful way, psephologically, for me to vote against the racist/nativist/closed helmets in the Brexit Party?
>
> It depends on your region, but LD, Green or CHUK in England, Nationalist elsewhere.
Some of the regions are too small for that to work. Sadly for the Tiggers, unless they can conjure some momentum from somewhere, they're going to be squeezed in most regions.
> > @_Anazina_ said:
> > Can someone simplify the Euro elections for me? What’s the most powerful way, psephologically, for me to vote against the racist/nativist/closed helmets in the Brexit Party?
> >
> > It depends on your region, but LD, Green or CHUK in England, Nationalist elsewhere.
> >
> >
> > In London?
>
> The most recent poll evidence such as it is, is that CHUK will get one seat, but not com e close to a second, with both LD and Green on the borderline, so either of those two would be appropriate.My hunch is all three get one MEP.
With a following wind LDs could make two
https://twitter.com/ajosshi/status/1124510550111612928
Perhaps it might bring them to their senses. Every remainer should vote LD>
I expect the Conservatives showing to be very poor, but I could see them getting anything from 8%-14% depending on just how loyal their core is.
I suspect it’s still there. It’s not the core loyal Conservatives who are being heard at the moment.
> Can't find any 'naming & shaming':
>
> https://www.backthebrexitdeal.com
>
> EDIT - if you enter your postcode and email it shows your MP's voting record and invites you to email them to support the deal.
Yup, it comes out like this:
https://www.backthebrexitdeal.com/back-the-deal/WITH
> As a remainer, I have decided that I am going to vote LD for the first time in my life as its the best way of showing my disapproval of the shower that the Tories are at the moment. Its a frightening thought that their stupidity might result in a Labour Govt.
>
> Perhaps it might bring them to their senses. Every remainer should vote LD>
It's a great pity that the LDs and Greens couldn't agree a joint ticket there in the East.
Will give the podcast a listen a bit later (post-coffee). Be interesting to see what the view of the locals and, ahead, the EU elections is.
ETA: apparently Chuk is putting up candidates.
> > @CarlottaVance said:
> > Can't find any 'naming & shaming':
> >
> > https://www.backthebrexitdeal.com
> >
> > EDIT - if you enter your postcode and email it shows your MP's voting record and invites you to email them to support the deal.
>
> Yup, it comes out like this:
> https://www.backthebrexitdeal.com/back-the-deal/WITH
Blatant email address harvesting.
> Polling card update. Yesterday I reported no poll card; a couple of hours later it was delivered by HM Royal Mail, along with shiny leaflets from Labour and the Brexit Party whose slogan, "changing politics for good", must make Nigel Farage mildly grateful Chuka's mob bottled out, given the possibility of confusion.
>
> ETA: apparently Chuk is putting up candidates.
Unless you live in a very rural area, your council is wasting money posting its poll cards!
> Good morning, everyone.
>
> Will give the podcast a listen a bit later (post-coffee). Be interesting to see what the view of the locals and, ahead, the EU elections is.
Kieran has included a (somewhat strained) F1 reference especially for you.
> As a remainer, I have decided that I am going to vote LD for the first time in my life as its the best way of showing my disapproval of the shower that the Tories are at the moment. Its a frightening thought that their stupidity might result in a Labour Govt.
>
> Perhaps it might bring them to their senses. Every remainer should vote LD
>
> Our politicians have senses?
It's got to be debatable doesn't it? They can't hear what the people told them and they can't see what is right in front of their face. Some of them are touched, however.
> Labour's leaflet barely mentions Europe and wants us to vote against austerity and incompetence (the jokes write themselves).
Labour always seems to run the same campaign regardless of the actual election. Their local election campaigning is also about austerity and saving the NHS, despite councillors inability to do much about either, apart from campaigning.
This won't do the markets much good.
> My current expectations are for Labour and Brexit Party to underperform. I think the LDs might end up running Labour close.
>
> I expect the Conservatives showing to be very poor, but I could see them getting anything from 8%-14% depending on just how loyal their core is.
>
> I suspect it’s still there. It’s not the core loyal Conservatives who are being heard at the moment.
I think they will end up with most of the soft remainer element of the usual Tory vote.
> Blatant email address harvesting.
Yup. The email addresses aren't confirmed so public-spirited citizens will fill it with junk.
> > @ydoethur said:
> > As a remainer, I have decided that I am going to vote LD for the first time in my life as its the best way of showing my disapproval of the shower that the Tories are at the moment. Its a frightening thought that their stupidity might result in a Labour Govt.
> >
> > Perhaps it might bring them to their senses. Every remainer should vote LD
> >
> > Our politicians have senses?
>
> It's got to be debatable doesn't it? They can't hear what the people told them and they can't see what is right in front of their face. Some of them are touched, however.
They have senses, it the common sense they lack... especially the ERG loons who are so full of hatred, it defies belief how anyone could function on that level of inner bile is beyond me.
Although, if Mr. Pedley's reading this, might be time to update your pinned tweet, which is an April podcast edition.
> > @Casino_Royale said:
> > My current expectations are for Labour and Brexit Party to underperform. I think the LDs might end up running Labour close.
> >
> > I expect the Conservatives showing to be very poor, but I could see them getting anything from 8%-14% depending on just how loyal their core is.
> >
> > I suspect it’s still there. It’s not the core loyal Conservatives who are being heard at the moment.
>
> I think they will end up with most of the soft remainer element of the usual Tory vote.
I think Philip May is a maybe, and @Big_G looks probable. I am sure there are others, somewhere.
> > @DecrepitJohnL said:
> > Blatant email address harvesting.
>
> Yup. The email addresses aren't confirmed so public-spirited citizens will fill it with junk.
And choosing a random SS11 postcode would nicely fill Mark Gino Francois’s inbox with critical emails from his own party.
The local health service that was being abolished was Mid-Staffordshire NHS Trust.
> The podcast may be right that Remain voters are more motivated to vote in the EUs right now. I wonder whether and how polling companies are allowing for differential turnout. Farage’s principal challenge is to motivate his own side (which tbf he is usually good at)
I think that very possible. Turnout will be low, and only the most motivated will vote. I think that Remainers are mostly habitual voters, so will. Certainly some Brexiteers are too, particularly the wealthy retired, but will those one off voters that turned out in the referendum, possibly for the only time in their life? My hunch is not.
> > @IanB2 said:
> > The podcast may be right that Remain voters are more motivated to vote in the EUs right now. I wonder whether and how polling companies are allowing for differential turnout. Farage’s principal challenge is to motivate his own side (which tbf he is usually good at)
>
> I think that very possible. Turnout will be low, and only the most motivated will vote. I think that Remainers are mostly habitual voters, so will. Certainly some Brexiteers are too, particularly the wealthy retired, but will those one off voters that turned out in the referendum, possibly for the only time in their life? My hunch is not.
Hopefully the big difference from previous EUels will be the turnout of younger people.
> > @IanB2 said:
> > > @Casino_Royale said:
> > > My current expectations are for Labour and Brexit Party to underperform. I think the LDs might end up running Labour close.
> > >
> > > I expect the Conservatives showing to be very poor, but I could see them getting anything from 8%-14% depending on just how loyal their core is.
> > >
> > > I suspect it’s still there. It’s not the core loyal Conservatives who are being heard at the moment.
> >
> > I think they will end up with most of the soft remainer element of the usual Tory vote.
>
> I think Philip May is a maybe, and @Big_G looks probable. I am sure there are others, somewhere.
BigG looks doubtful to me, but my mother is a probable.
By the way on the subject of treason, the only thing that is a more epic shambles than Brexit right now is Vanilla Forums.
> In other news Trump is at it again: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48210313
>
>
>
> This won't do the markets much good.
>
> There was an interesting article in the Economist last week. EU retaliatory tariffs were designed to do least damage to the EU. China retaliatory tariffs were designed to do most damage to Trump voters, irrespective of the consequences to China. Moral of the story; 'Don't start trade wars with autocracies who don't worry what their own voters think'
Our problem is that ever since WW2 our policy has been to get as close as possible to the USA. This was predicated not only on the US being most powerful nation but also, generally, the adult in the room.
Now we have a US leader for whom the word maverick is somewhat kind. Their behaviour towards Iran is outrageous as is their approach to Israel and their bullying of European businesses into compliance an abuse of a dominant position. Their threats about access to intelligence should we use Huewai have to be taken seriously and their trade "policy" is destabilising the world economy. I can't think of a time when our relations with the US were as bad as this. Why May thought it a good idea to invite Trump right now is beyond me. But then most of what she does is.
> > @DavidL said:
> > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > @Casino_Royale said:
> > > > My current expectations are for Labour and Brexit Party to underperform. I think the LDs might end up running Labour close.
> > > >
> > > > I expect the Conservatives showing to be very poor, but I could see them getting anything from 8%-14% depending on just how loyal their core is.
> > > >
> > > > I suspect it’s still there. It’s not the core loyal Conservatives who are being heard at the moment.
> > >
> > > I think they will end up with most of the soft remainer element of the usual Tory vote.
> >
> > I think Philip May is a maybe, and @Big_G looks probable. I am sure there are others, somewhere.
>
>
> BigG looks doubtful to me, but my mother is a probable.
Mine too. She never votes anything else. She really liked John Major.
> > @DavidL said:
> > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > @Casino_Royale said:
> > > > My current expectations are for Labour and Brexit Party to underperform. I think the LDs might end up running Labour close.
> > > >
> > > > I expect the Conservatives showing to be very poor, but I could see them getting anything from 8%-14% depending on just how loyal their core is.
> > > >
> > > > I suspect it’s still there. It’s not the core loyal Conservatives who are being heard at the moment.
> > >
> > > I think they will end up with most of the soft remainer element of the usual Tory vote.
> >
> > I think Philip May is a maybe, and @Big_G looks probable. I am sure there are others, somewhere.
>
>
> BigG looks doubtful to me, but my mother is a probable.
No he declared himself voting for the party, if not May, yesterday. His wife wasn't so sure.
> > @Casino_Royale said:
> > My current expectations are for Labour and Brexit Party to underperform. I think the LDs might end up running Labour close.
> >
> > I expect the Conservatives showing to be very poor, but I could see them getting anything from 8%-14% depending on just how loyal their core is.
> >
> > I suspect it’s still there. It’s not the core loyal Conservatives who are being heard at the moment.
>
> I think they will end up with most of the soft remainer element of the usual Tory vote.
That would be me as of yesterday. While no great fan of May I'm staggered that so many of my Tory friends really think that another leader would have got a better deal.
> > @IanB2 said:
> > > @DavidL said:
> > > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > > @Casino_Royale said:
> > > > > My current expectations are for Labour and Brexit Party to underperform. I think the LDs might end up running Labour close.
> > > > >
> > > > > I expect the Conservatives showing to be very poor, but I could see them getting anything from 8%-14% depending on just how loyal their core is.
> > > > >
> > > > > I suspect it’s still there. It’s not the core loyal Conservatives who are being heard at the moment.
> > > >
> > > > I think they will end up with most of the soft remainer element of the usual Tory vote.
> > >
> > > I think Philip May is a maybe, and @Big_G looks probable. I am sure there are others, somewhere.
> >
> >
> > BigG looks doubtful to me, but my mother is a probable.
>
> Mine too. She never votes anything else. She really liked John Major.
... but John Major is a Remainer , and the current Tory party leadership aren't.
> > @edmundintokyo said:
> > > @CarlottaVance said:
> > > Can't find any 'naming & shaming':
> > >
> > > https://www.backthebrexitdeal.com
> > >
> > > EDIT - if you enter your postcode and email it shows your MP's voting record and invites you to email them to support the deal.
> >
> > Yup, it comes out like this:
> > https://www.backthebrexitdeal.com/back-the-deal/WITH
>
> Blatant email address harvesting.
Useful for the recipients, of all parties, as well, if they are organised. As a councillor I used to get batches of standard emails from such sites, particularly during elections, most commonly from cycling, environmental or animal welfare campaigns. It was a useful way of identifying voters interested in these particular issues, as well as their email addresses (with the appropriate small print included at the bottom of the reply to cover off the data retention issues).
> > @IanB2 said:
> > > @Casino_Royale said:
> > > My current expectations are for Labour and Brexit Party to underperform. I think the LDs might end up running Labour close.
> > >
> > > I expect the Conservatives showing to be very poor, but I could see them getting anything from 8%-14% depending on just how loyal their core is.
> > >
> > > I suspect it’s still there. It’s not the core loyal Conservatives who are being heard at the moment.
> >
> > I think they will end up with most of the soft remainer element of the usual Tory vote.
>
> That would be me as of yesterday. While no great fan of May I'm staggered that so many of my Tory friends really think that another leader would have got a better deal.
I agree that her deal was probably as good, if not better, than might reasonably have been expected of anyone. My problem with her is that she is completely incapable of selling it, incapable of building any form of consensus and apparently willing to have us caught in paralysis indefinitely without any clear idea of how to change it.
After all, we are demonstrably still communicating through the broken backed Vanilla.
> > @felix said:
> > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > @Casino_Royale said:
> > > > My current expectations are for Labour and Brexit Party to underperform. I think the LDs might end up running Labour close.
> > > >
> > > > I expect the Conservatives showing to be very poor, but I could see them getting anything from 8%-14% depending on just how loyal their core is.
> > > >
> > > > I suspect it’s still there. It’s not the core loyal Conservatives who are being heard at the moment.
> > >
> > > I think they will end up with most of the soft remainer element of the usual Tory vote.
> >
> > That would be me as of yesterday. While no great fan of May I'm staggered that so many of my Tory friends really think that another leader would have got a better deal.
>
> I agree that her deal was probably as good, if not better, than might reasonably have been expected of anyone. My problem with her is that she is completely incapable of selling it, incapable of building any form of consensus and apparently willing to have us caught in paralysis indefinitely without any clear idea of how to change it.
Look to the Leavers. It was opposed by pretty well all the non-payroll Leave MPs in the first meaningful vote and its converts since have been reluctant rather than zealots. The inability of Leavers to celebrate compromising (and now it is seen as an active ill by many Leavers) is what is scuppering Brexit.
There are no good options in what is a very silly and pointless election.
> > @IanB2 said:
>
> > > @Casino_Royale said:
>
> > > My current expectations are for Labour and Brexit Party to underperform. I think the LDs might end up running Labour close.
>
> > >
>
> > > I expect the Conservatives showing to be very poor, but I could see them getting anything from 8%-14% depending on just how loyal their core is.
>
> > >
>
> > > I suspect it’s still there. It’s not the core loyal Conservatives who are being heard at the moment.
>
> >
>
> > I think they will end up with most of the soft remainer element of the usual Tory vote.
>
>
>
> I think Philip May is a maybe, and @Big_G looks probable. I am sure there are others, somewhere.
>
> And JohnO, TSE and Sean Fear, and probably myself, unhappy as we are.
>
> There are no good options in what is a very silly and pointless election.
The election has a lot of point. It demonstrates the intellectual bankruptcy of Leavers, who can oppose but cannot propose.
> > @Foxy said:
> > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > @DavidL said:
> > > > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > > > @Casino_Royale said:
> > > > > > My current expectations are for Labour and Brexit Party to underperform. I think the LDs might end up running Labour close.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > I expect the Conservatives showing to be very poor, but I could see them getting anything from 8%-14% depending on just how loyal their core is.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > I suspect it’s still there. It’s not the core loyal Conservatives who are being heard at the moment.
> > > > >
> > > > > I think they will end up with most of the soft remainer element of the usual Tory vote.
> > > >
> > > > I think Philip May is a maybe, and @Big_G looks probable. I am sure there are others, somewhere.
> > >
> > >
> > > BigG looks doubtful to me, but my mother is a probable.
> >
> > Mine too. She never votes anything else. She really liked John Major.
>
> ... but John Major is a Remainer , and the current Tory party leadership aren't.
I learned many years ago that political arguments with my mother were futile. The answer to any and every challenge is “but we can’t let Labour in” and there is nowhere to go thereafter.
Interesting that we might be seeing the fading away of unthinking tribal voting behaviour like that amongst otherwise unpolitical people on both left and right.