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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast. Looking back at the locals (and ahead to the Euro elections)
The Polling Matters podcast returns! Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look back at the local election results and look at what the EU election polling tells us about what is to come.
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I should get out more.
> Dr Andrew Murrison takes Alistair Burts old job at the Foreign Office.
Good for him. I have a soft spot for my MP ever since he wrote a novel set in the English civil war about a fictional soldier turned MP who was at the thick of it all. Incidentally, Dr Murrison is a naval surgeon turned MP.
He was definitely a leaver, but this tweet probably explains why he is trusted to be a junior minister again
https://twitter.com/AWMurrison/status/1125864193486458880
https://twitter.com/AWMurrison/status/1124959558168981504
> > @ralphmalph said:
> > Dr Andrew Murrison takes Alistair Burts old job at the Foreign Office.
>
> Good for him. I have a soft spot for my MP ever since he wrote a novel set in the English civil war about a soldier turned MP who was at the thick of it all. Incidentally, Dr Murrison is a naval surgeon turned MP.
>
> He was definitely a leaver, but this tweet probably explains why he is trusted to be a junior minister again
> https://twitter.com/AWMurrison/status/1125864193486458880
> https://twitter.com/AWMurrison/status/1124959558168981504
Interestingly in the EU documentary just finished, Elmar Brok stated clearly that their (the EU's) biggest problem was the hard line Leaver and Remainer coalition that formed the majority. There's no doubt they wanted a deal.
[Fails: jokes not funny nor appropriate]
[Tries to thinks of a joke to make regarding Leavers always living abroad]
[Fails: jokes not funny nor appropriate]
[Question: how much did this celebrity mean to me?]
[Answer: Some memories of 70's and 80's television. Above Schnorbitz, below Les Dennis]
[Approach: Apply appropriate amount of sympathy]
I'm sorry to hear that.
> Freddie Starr is found dead aged 76 at his Spanish home
>
> [Tries to thinks of a joke to make regarding hamsters]
> [Fails: jokes not funny nor appropriate]
> [Tries to thinks of a joke to make regarding Leavers always living abroad]
> [Fails: jokes not funny nor appropriate]
> [Question: how much did this celebrity mean to me?]
> [Answer: Some memories of 70's and 80's television. Above Schnorbitz, below Les Dennis]
> [Approach: Apply appropriate amount of sympathy]
>
> I'm sorry to hear that.
And don't forget, no tweeting dodgy photos with racist tropes....
CFP (equivalent) because access to UK waters is a high priority item for Denmark, Spain and France, all of whom have a veto over the arrangement; CAP because UK farmers won't get access to their only substantial export market without it; Customs Union because of the Northern Irish land border and because car manufacturers who are in a fragile state can't function without it; also because there are WTO rules about customs unions that are somewhat binary; accepting all in scope future EU rules and EUCJ oversight because the EU won't accept close UK engagement without them and won't change the way it does things to accommodate an ex member.
It's what it is, really.
He was a great comedian in his day but lost his fortune and UK home defending a huge legal bill.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/09/tories-fear-dismal-results-in-european-elections-meps-say
<i>Another Conservative source said internal data showed the party could do worse than the Brexit party, Labour, the Lib Dems, Change UK and even potentially the Greens, with support at less than 10%.</i>
Surely you bodyswerve the awful results by simply not taking part, and then you can pretend you'd have actually achieved any result if the whole thing wasn't so completely beneath you.
> I suppose the question is: if there's no incentive to launch or fund campaigns or come up with manifestos or anything, and you are (however misguidedly) labouring under the belief it's all irrelevant as they won't be taking up their seats, then why stand candidates at all?
>
> Surely you bodyswerve the awful results by simply not taking part, and then you can pretend you'd have actually achieved any result if the whole thing wasn't so completely beneath you.
Known as the CUK manoeuvre.
> https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1126603499662262272
Great thumbnail.
He’s really not impressive, is he? Getting absolutely taken apart on antisemitism.
Other teams in 2019 European finals: 0
> Chelsea v Arsenal final
No one goes home empty handed. A Crackerjack pencil for every premier league club.
Seriously, RIP.
https://twitter.com/MirrorFootball/status/1126601498413162496
> Mirror too excited by the football.
>
> https://twitter.com/MirrorFootball/status/1126601498413162496
Sure that isn't just for their Scottish readers?
> If there is a ruder more ignorant politician in the UK than Nigel Farage I haven't heard them.
You haven't been listening hard enough...there is plenty of competition at the moment.
> Conservative officials fear the party could come sixth in the European elections, with their support plummeting to single digits.
>
> https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/09/tories-fear-dismal-results-in-european-elections-meps-say
>
> Another Conservative source said internal data showed the party could do worse than the Brexit party, Labour, the Lib Dems, Change UK and even potentially the Greens, with support at less than 10%.
>
> ***Cough**** Expectations management ***Cough***
Because they were so good at that in the local elections!
> Freddie Starr is found dead aged 76 at his Spanish home
Hamster poisoning
Is Richard Burgon digging his political grave?
> I turned on Question Time. What a fool I am.
The audience are making a lot of noise.
> I turned on Question Time. What a fool I am.
>
> You mean it was so bursting with insightful analysis and powerfully persuasive oratory it revealed to you how foolish you had been previously? Quite an endorsement.
The erudite arguments on QT are compelling and enlightening. Brexit solved by common agreement. Refreshing.
> What's interesting is 4 Premier League teams in the finals of European Cup competitions, but IMO the standard of the Premier League has been poorer than in most recent years.
Agreed. That this Everton side is eighth and conceded none in our four most recent games v Top Six, against Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal and United, winning three, really does speak volumes.
We have been dreadful for most of the season.
> If there is a ruder more ignorant politician in the UK than Nigel Farage I haven't heard them.
It's a competitive field. Edit.Mr Urquhart beat me to it.
> > @kle4 said:
> > I turned on Question Time. What a fool I am.
> >
> > You mean it was so bursting with insightful analysis and powerfully persuasive oratory it revealed to you how foolish you had been previously? Quite an endorsement.
>
> The erudite arguments on QT are compelling and enlightening. Brexit solved by common agreement. Refreshing.
Farage and Soubry presently shouting each other down, Rudd and Labour apparatchik Reynolds in the middle
> Freddie Starr is found dead aged 76 at his Spanish home
>
> Found dead by his carer at his one bed flat on the Costa del Sol.
>
> He was a great comedian in his day but lost his fortune and UK home defending a huge legal bill.
Mind you there are worse places to spend your last years than the Costa del Sol, RIP, he was never really to my taste but many people found him hilarious
> > @kle4 said:
> > > @ralphmalph said:
> > > Dr Andrew Murrison takes Alistair Burts old job at the Foreign Office.
> >
> > Good for him. I have a soft spot for my MP ever since he wrote a novel set in the English civil war about a soldier turned MP who was at the thick of it all. Incidentally, Dr Murrison is a naval surgeon turned MP.
> >
> > He was definitely a leaver, but this tweet probably explains why he is trusted to be a junior minister again
> > https://twitter.com/AWMurrison/status/1125864193486458880
> > https://twitter.com/AWMurrison/status/1124959558168981504
>
> Interestingly in the EU documentary just finished, Elmar Brok stated clearly that their (the EU's) biggest problem was the hard line Leaver and Remainer coalition that formed the majority. There's no doubt they wanted a deal.
Yes, he said their sympathies were with Remainers but they were now blocking a compromise along with hard Brexiteers
> I suppose the question is: if there's no incentive to launch or fund campaigns or come up with manifestos or anything, and you are (however misguidedly) labouring under the belief it's all irrelevant as they won't be taking up their seats, then why stand candidates at all?
>
>
>
> Surely you bodyswerve the awful results by simply not taking part, and then you can pretend you'd have actually achieved any result if the whole thing wasn't so completely beneath you.
>
> Good point. I am surprised the Cons did not take that approach. Seems all downside and no upside. Why punch yourself in the face?
As they are standing as the party of May's Deal against the Brexit Party for No Deal and the Remainer Parties for no Brexit and Corbyn's BINO Deal
How many fans will actually make it to Baku?
> > @kinabalu said:
> > I suppose the question is: if there's no incentive to launch or fund campaigns or come up with manifestos or anything, and you are (however misguidedly) labouring under the belief it's all irrelevant as they won't be taking up their seats, then why stand candidates at all?
> >
> >
> >
> > Surely you bodyswerve the awful results by simply not taking part, and then you can pretend you'd have actually achieved any result if the whole thing wasn't so completely beneath you.
> >
> > Good point. I am surprised the Cons did not take that approach. Seems all downside and no upside. Why punch yourself in the face?
>
> As they are standing as the party of May's Deal against the Brexit Party for No Deal and the Remainer Parties for no Brexit and Corbyn's BINO Deal
Not the snappiest slogan. And not easy to chant.
> Watching Question TIme is a depressing experience. I remember when it used to be fairly instructive and interesting.
It’s terrible. It holds a mirror up to us. We’re in a terrible state.
https://twitter.com/romfordrecorder/status/1126591047306551310?s=21
> > @kinabalu said:
> > I suppose the question is: if there's no incentive to launch or fund campaigns or come up with manifestos or anything, and you are (however misguidedly) labouring under the belief it's all irrelevant as they won't be taking up their seats, then why stand candidates at all?
> >
> >
> >
> > Surely you bodyswerve the awful results by simply not taking part, and then you can pretend you'd have actually achieved any result if the whole thing wasn't so completely beneath you.
> >
> > Good point. I am surprised the Cons did not take that approach. Seems all downside and no upside. Why punch yourself in the face?
>
> As they are standing as the party of May's Deal against the Brexit Party for No Deal and the Remainer Parties for no Brexit and Corbyn's BINO Deal
That's tenuous. And if it was the case, why not campaign hard on that basis? Because they can't. "The best way to stand up for a Brexit deal is to vote in these MEPs which we don't expect to take their seats, in an election we aren't actually really trying in".
Can't see it working, still think they'd be better ignoring it completely - they can brave it out in the short term and if it's in the longer term because they failed to get May's deal through then they're not really any less fucked than they were anyway, so, meh.
Cranham as you know is arguably one of the most isolated parties places in London saved only by the 248 bus from Upminster! Not quite Biggin hill but not far off it.
> Based on QT looks like a Brexit Party GAIN Northampton at the next election?
It's probably just that they're the people who make the most noise.
> > @GIN1138 said:
> > Based on QT looks like a Brexit Party GAIN Northampton at the next election?
>
> It's probably just that they're the people who make the most noise.
Gobshites.
> https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1126605915711393792
>
> Is Richard Burgon digging his political grave?
He will be fine in the cess pit otherwise known as the Labour party..
> Chelsea v Arsenal final
>
> And a final in a city with no direct flights from the UK with the indirect flights taking at least ten hours and more with stopovers in Kiev, Istanbul or Moscow. If you drive its 3 days non stop each way.
>
> How many fans will actually make it to Baku?
We’ve got 6,000 tickets each.
> Chelsea v Arsenal final
>
> And a final in a city with no direct flights from the UK with the indirect flights taking at least ten hours and more with stopovers in Kiev, Istanbul or Moscow. If you drive its 3 days non stop each way.
>
> How many fans will actually make it to Baku?
There seems to be some doubt as to whether all the players will make it there. Arsenal were dumb enough to sign an Armenian a few years back, and obviously the Azerbaijani authorities may not let him in the country.
How much to just hold it at Wembley?
> Based on QT looks like a Brexit Party GAIN Northampton at the next election?
QT audiences are always pro Brexit, AQ audiences pro Remain.
> > @brendan16 said:
> > Chelsea v Arsenal final
> >
> > And a final in a city with no direct flights from the UK with the indirect flights taking at least ten hours and more with stopovers in Kiev, Istanbul or Moscow. If you drive its 3 days non stop each way.
> >
> > How many fans will actually make it to Baku?
>
> There seems to be some doubt as to whether all the players will make it there. Arsenal were dumb enough to sign an Armenian a few years back, and obviously the Azerbaijani authorities may not let him in the country.
>
> How much to just hold it at Wembley?
If they will not let him in, then Arsenal need to say they will not turn up and mean it.
> https://twitter.com/romfordrecorder/status/1126612744072048644
Pretty good for a by-election, well done them.
> > @dr_spyn said:
> > https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1126605915711393792
> >
> > Is Richard Burgon digging his political grave?
>
> He will be fine in the cess pit otherwise known as the Labour party..
To be fair, they did eventually chuck out Williamson (C, not G). Burgon may be the most at-risk MP remaining.
Who decided to split Ockendon in two anyway? The north gets a London bus service, freedom passes and more - the south gets lumped in Thurrock!
> > @Floater said:
> > > @dr_spyn said:
> > > https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1126605915711393792
> > >
> > > Is Richard Burgon digging his political grave?
> >
> > He will be fine in the cess pit otherwise known as the Labour party..
>
> To be fair, they did eventually chuck out Williamson (C, not G).
Suspended. He'll be back.
> > @Endillion said:
> > > @brendan16 said:
> > > Chelsea v Arsenal final
> > >
> > > And a final in a city with no direct flights from the UK with the indirect flights taking at least ten hours and more with stopovers in Kiev, Istanbul or Moscow. If you drive its 3 days non stop each way.
> > >
> > > How many fans will actually make it to Baku?
> >
> > There seems to be some doubt as to whether all the players will make it there. Arsenal were dumb enough to sign an Armenian a few years back, and obviously the Azerbaijani authorities may not let him in the country.
> >
> > How much to just hold it at Wembley?
>
> If they will not let him in, then Arsenal need to say they will not turn up and mean it.
Him, and his family.
> Chelsea v Arsenal final
>
> And a final in a city with no direct flights from the UK with the indirect flights taking at least ten hours and more with stopovers in Kiev, Istanbul or Moscow. If you drive its 3 days non stop each way.
>
> How many fans will actually make it to Baku?
I don't think the Russia - Azerbajani border is open to non nationals, and the security situation is iffy.
Turkish Airlines are fine, and Istanbul delightful for a stopover.
> > @ralphmalph said:
> > > @Endillion said:
> > > > @brendan16 said:
> > > > Chelsea v Arsenal final
> > > >
> > > > And a final in a city with no direct flights from the UK with the indirect flights taking at least ten hours and more with stopovers in Kiev, Istanbul or Moscow. If you drive its 3 days non stop each way.
> > > >
> > > > How many fans will actually make it to Baku?
> > >
> > > There seems to be some doubt as to whether all the players will make it there. Arsenal were dumb enough to sign an Armenian a few years back, and obviously the Azerbaijani authorities may not let him in the country.
> > >
> > > How much to just hold it at Wembley?
> >
> > If they will not let him in, then Arsenal need to say they will not turn up and mean it.
>
> Him, and his family.
Sorry no I meant the whole team.
> > @Endillion said:
> > > @ralphmalph said:
> > > > @Endillion said:
> > > > > @brendan16 said:
> > > > > Chelsea v Arsenal final
> > > > >
> > > > > And a final in a city with no direct flights from the UK with the indirect flights taking at least ten hours and more with stopovers in Kiev, Istanbul or Moscow. If you drive its 3 days non stop each way.
> > > > >
> > > > > How many fans will actually make it to Baku?
> > > >
> > > > There seems to be some doubt as to whether all the players will make it there. Arsenal were dumb enough to sign an Armenian a few years back, and obviously the Azerbaijani authorities may not let him in the country.
> > > >
> > > > How much to just hold it at Wembley?
> > >
> > > If they will not let him in, then Arsenal need to say they will not turn up and mean it.
> >
> > Him, and his family.
>
> Sorry no I meant the whole team.
I think we're talking at crossed purposes - I meant the club (probably both clubs?) should refuse to play unless Azerbaijan let Mkhitaryan and his family in for the match.
https://www.elections.org.za/NPEDashboard/app/dashboard.html
Go on, google that...
> Turkish Airlines are fine, and Istanbul delightful for a stopover.
I think the food on Turkish Airlines is far and away the best food on any airline I've flown on. It was actually good.
However, Istanbul airport wifi is weird and annoying, for authoritarianism-related reasons.
> > @ralphmalph said:
> > > @Endillion said:
> > > > @ralphmalph said:
> > > > > @Endillion said:
> > > > > > @brendan16 said:
> > > > > > Chelsea v Arsenal final
> > > > > >
> > > > > > And a final in a city with no direct flights from the UK with the indirect flights taking at least ten hours and more with stopovers in Kiev, Istanbul or Moscow. If you drive its 3 days non stop each way.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > How many fans will actually make it to Baku?
> > > > >
> > > > > There seems to be some doubt as to whether all the players will make it there. Arsenal were dumb enough to sign an Armenian a few years back, and obviously the Azerbaijani authorities may not let him in the country.
> > > > >
> > > > > How much to just hold it at Wembley?
> > > >
> > > > If they will not let him in, then Arsenal need to say they will not turn up and mean it.
> > >
> > > Him, and his family.
> >
> > Sorry no I meant the whole team.
>
> I think we're talking at crossed purposes - I meant the club (probably both clubs?) should refuse to play unless Azerbaijan let Mkhitaryan and his family in for the match.
I agree with this.
> > @Foxy said:
> > Turkish Airlines are fine, and Istanbul delightful for a stopover.
>
> I think the food on Turkish Airlines is far and away the best food on any airline I've flown on. It was actually good.
>
> However, Istanbul airport wifi is weird and annoying, for authoritarianism-related reasons.
When you get bad WIFI you just have to think of it as a holiday from being constantly online.
https://twitter.com/romfordrecorder/status/1126612397970608128?s=21
> And Ukip. Really, Gerald Batten is an ugly racist tosser.
Shall I put you down as a maybe for UKIP?
If you want to fly to the game on the day then a lengthy wait in somewhere like Istanbul or Kiev would be needed.
The quickest journey by air on the day of the final takes six hours 55 minutes, with the majority lasting more than 10 hours.
The only way to fly direct to Baku for the game would be to leave London on the Saturday beforehand and return a week later, three days after the trophy has been lifted.
That's an eight-day trip for 90 minutes of football - and for a game which kicks of at 11pm local time (20:00 BST), so will not finish until around 1am!
https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/48220247
Think I'll just watch it on the telly.
Yeah, I considered that, but it’s not going to work.
No.