Let's see what happens from now. No evidence so far that LD, Green and CHUK are separating from their near tied position, which is fine for registering overall vote share but less good in many regions if they actually want to deliver MEPs to Brussels for a full 5 year term and don't want them to be wreckers.
> @nico67 said: > > @kinabalu said: > > I have never in my life voted anything but Labour. Why would I. But for these Euros, since they are essentially Ref2, have no meaning other than that, I am considering the Lib Dems as the best way to boost Remain and counter the unwelcome Farage movement. I may not be able to do it, my hand might not play ball when I get in there, but that somebody like me has an 'aspiration' to vote yellow rather than red speaks volumes. So making the (possibly dubious) assumption that what is going on in my leftish head is also going on in many other leftish heads I would say that the Lib Dems have a decent shot at 2nd. > > Remainers have to send a message to Labour . They need to see lots of votes moving to pro EU parties . I understand it might be difficult ! But needs must .
All this nonsense about what makes the English, English is just vom-inducing nostalgia.
We're a mixed race bunch ourselves and have been ever since hordes of Vikings and Normans landed to mingle amongst the native factions. We're been seafaring for at least two thousand years, open-facing and embracing of all cultures and peoples, occasionally literally. There's plenty of international blood in the veins of Brits.
We're at our best when we take our place as a progressive people.
So it's bloody great that Harry and Meghan come across as non-royal and normal. Diana would be very proud today.
> @nico67 said: > > @kinabalu said: > > I have never in my life voted anything but Labour. Why would I. But for these Euros, since they are essentially Ref2, have no meaning other than that, I am considering the Lib Dems as the best way to boost Remain and counter the unwelcome Farage movement. I may not be able to do it, my hand might not play ball when I get in there, but that somebody like me has an 'aspiration' to vote yellow rather than red speaks volumes. So making the (possibly dubious) assumption that what is going on in my leftish head is also going on in many other leftish heads I would say that the Lib Dems have a decent shot at 2nd. > > Remainers have to send a message to Labour . They need to see lots of votes moving to pro EU parties . I understand it might be difficult ! But needs must .
I disagree there. Brexit should not be allowed to override other issues.
> @justin124 said: > > @nico67 said: > > > @kinabalu said: > > > I have never in my life voted anything but Labour. Why would I. But for these Euros, since they are essentially Ref2, have no meaning other than that, I am considering the Lib Dems as the best way to boost Remain and counter the unwelcome Farage movement. I may not be able to do it, my hand might not play ball when I get in there, but that somebody like me has an 'aspiration' to vote yellow rather than red speaks volumes. So making the (possibly dubious) assumption that what is going on in my leftish head is also going on in many other leftish heads I would say that the Lib Dems have a decent shot at 2nd. > > > > Remainers have to send a message to Labour . They need to see lots of votes moving to pro EU parties . I understand it might be difficult ! But needs must . > > I disagree there. Brexit should not be allowed to override other issues.
The problem with Brexit is due to the economics of it, any conclusion to it will result in an impact on Government spending. So in many ways it has the potential to dictate the Governments future spending commitments. So, for that reason it supersedes other more acute issues lower down the pecking order. It is also the European elections, so why not vote for a Remain or Brexit party to help the politicians to either stop Brexit or carry on with it?
> @kinabalu said: > > @nico67 said: > > > @kinabalu said: > > > I have never in my life voted anything but Labour. Why would I. But for these Euros, since they are essentially Ref2, have no meaning other than that, I am considering the Lib Dems as the best way to boost Remain and counter the unwelcome Farage movement. I may not be able to do it, my hand might not play ball when I get in there, but that somebody like me has an 'aspiration' to vote yellow rather than red speaks volumes. So making the (possibly dubious) assumption that what is going on in my leftish head is also going on in many other leftish heads I would say that the Lib Dems have a decent shot at 2nd. > > > > Remainers have to send a message to Labour . They need to see lots of votes moving to pro EU parties . I understand it might be difficult ! But needs must . > > It will be tough. Perhaps you can come with me. > 😊
You could well end up cutting off your nose to spite your face by voting for the Little Helpers of the Tories. Historically the LibDems have not performed well at the EU elections - even when held on the same day as the Local Elections. I will be very surprised if they come at all close to Labour - and by supporting them you will help Farage to come in first.
> @Mysticrose said: > Archie's a great name. Love it. > > All this nonsense about what makes the English, English is just vom-inducing nostalgia. > > We're a mixed race bunch ourselves and have been ever since hordes of Vikings and Normans landed to mingle amongst the native factions. We're been seafaring for at least two thousand years, open-facing and embracing of all cultures and peoples, occasionally literally. There's plenty of international blood in the veins of Brits. > > We're at our best when we take our place as a progressive people. > > So it's bloody great that Harry and Meghan come across as non-royal and normal. Diana would be very proud today.
Yeah, nothing more progressive than literal royalty cosplaying as what they think constitutes normal
> @The_Taxman said: > > @justin124 said: > > > @nico67 said: > > > > @kinabalu said: > > > > I have never in my life voted anything but Labour. Why would I. But for these Euros, since they are essentially Ref2, have no meaning other than that, I am considering the Lib Dems as the best way to boost Remain and counter the unwelcome Farage movement. I may not be able to do it, my hand might not play ball when I get in there, but that somebody like me has an 'aspiration' to vote yellow rather than red speaks volumes. So making the (possibly dubious) assumption that what is going on in my leftish head is also going on in many other leftish heads I would say that the Lib Dems have a decent shot at 2nd. > > > > > > Remainers have to send a message to Labour . They need to see lots of votes moving to pro EU parties . I understand it might be difficult ! But needs must . > > > > I disagree there. Brexit should not be allowed to override other issues. > > The problem with Brexit is due to the economics of it, any conclusion to it will result in an impact on Government spending. So in many ways it has the potential to dictate the Governments future spending commitments. So, for that reason it supersedes other more acute issues lower down the pecking order. It is also the European elections, so why not vote for a Remain or Brexit party to help the politicians to either stop Brexit or carry on with it?
Not sure the votes are going to help clarify anything let alone help make any decisions. Both sides will see what they want in the results, complain about the other side misinterpreting the results and stick to their positions.
> @justin124 said: > > @kinabalu said: > > > @nico67 said: > > > > @kinabalu said: > > > > I have never in my life voted anything but Labour. Why would I. But for these Euros, since they are essentially Ref2, have no meaning other than that, I am considering the Lib Dems as the best way to boost Remain and counter the unwelcome Farage movement. I may not be able to do it, my hand might not play ball when I get in there, but that somebody like me has an 'aspiration' to vote yellow rather than red speaks volumes. So making the (possibly dubious) assumption that what is going on in my leftish head is also going on in many other leftish heads I would say that the Lib Dems have a decent shot at 2nd. > > > > > > Remainers have to send a message to Labour . They need to see lots of votes moving to pro EU parties . I understand it might be difficult ! But needs must . > > > > It will be tough. Perhaps you can come with me. > > 😊 > > You could well end up cutting off your nose to spite your face by voting for the Little Helpers of the Tories. Historically the LibDems have not performed well at the EU elections - even when held on the same day as the Local Elections. I will be very surprised if they come at all close to Labour - and by supporting them you will help Farage to come in first.
Just out of interest why will you vote Labour in the European elections, what is the driver? Party loyalty, specific policies or personalities?
> @SandyRentool said: > > @kle4 said: > > Prince Archie? > > > > Or is it a Henry/Harry sort of situation and they'll call him Archie while being officially Archibald? > > They aren't calling him Archibald by the sound of it. Just taking the 'modern' approach of giving children half-arsed names.
Until we get a Fred Higginbottom Mountbatten-Windsor I'll refuse to believe the Royals have become plebified.
> > > I have never in my life voted anything but Labour. Why would I. But for these Euros, since they are essentially Ref2, have no meaning other than that, I am considering the Lib Dems as the best way to boost Remain and counter the unwelcome Farage movement. I may not be able to do it, my hand might not play ball when I get in there, but that somebody like me has an 'aspiration' to vote yellow rather than red speaks volumes. So making the (possibly dubious) assumption that what is going on in my leftish head is also going on in many other leftish heads I would say that the Lib Dems have a decent shot at 2nd.
> >
> > Remainers have to send a message to Labour . They need to see lots of votes moving to pro EU parties . I understand it might be difficult ! But needs must .
>
> It will be tough. Perhaps you can come with me.
> 😊
You could well end up cutting off your nose to spite your face by voting for the Little Helpers of the Tories. Historically the LibDems have not performed well at the EU elections - even when held on the same day as the Local Elections. I will be very surprised if they come at all close to Labour - and by supporting them you will help Farage to come in first.
It is Labour that is now bailing out the Tories.
If you don't like the LD, vote Green, but a vote for Labour is a vote fror Mrs May.
FPT > @crandles said: > So what is wrong with betting on Jacob RM at 85 to be next tory leader and laying at 46 to be next PM? > Chance of tories splitting and JRM leading a faction is significant or he might become acting PM but not next leader of tories or .... ???
> @IanB2 said: > There is an additional betting risk with the LDs if some sort of last minute regional deal between them and CUK/Green does emerge.
Presumably that would involve divvying up the regions, one of the parties being the sole Remain list in each region. Unlikely at this stage.
I did wonder about some sort of coupon-like pledge (essentially to split Lab MEPs from Corbyn/Milne, and to reward the first list in each region to sign up with an official endorsement), but of course it has much less effect in a closed list system than in FPTP. Typically, the first time in my life when FPTP could have a slightly better outcome, and it is not being used...
As it stands, I think quite a lot of Tory Remainers will find CUK tempting. Not sure the Lib Dems can pick up that many of them.
> @justin124 said: > > @nico67 said: > > > @kinabalu said: > > > I have never in my life voted anything but Labour. Why would I. But for these Euros, since they are essentially Ref2, have no meaning other than that, I am considering the Lib Dems as the best way to boost Remain and counter the unwelcome Farage movement. I may not be able to do it, my hand might not play ball when I get in there, but that somebody like me has an 'aspiration' to vote yellow rather than red speaks volumes. So making the (possibly dubious) assumption that what is going on in my leftish head is also going on in many other leftish heads I would say that the Lib Dems have a decent shot at 2nd. > > > > Remainers have to send a message to Labour . They need to see lots of votes moving to pro EU parties . I understand it might be difficult ! But needs must . > > I disagree there. Brexit should not be allowed to override other issues.
Your posts are consistent in your plea that brexit does not overrule everything else but until a resolution of some form happens it will, as it is by a large margin the most disruptive and chaotic decision facing the country.
Even I am struggling with the decision on the EU vote. I will not support Farage and the Brexit party and the only way to resist in many ways is to vote for the Lib Dems to try to give them a chance of standing up against Farage's Brexit
> > > I have never in my life voted anything but Labour. Why would I. But for these Euros, since they are essentially Ref2, have no meaning other than that, I am considering the Lib Dems as the best way to boost Remain and counter the unwelcome Farage movement. I may not be able to do it, my hand might not play ball when I get in there, but that somebody like me has an 'aspiration' to vote yellow rather than red speaks volumes. So making the (possibly dubious) assumption that what is going on in my leftish head is also going on in many other leftish heads I would say that the Lib Dems have a decent shot at 2nd.
> >
> > Remainers have to send a message to Labour . They need to see lots of votes moving to pro EU parties . I understand it might be difficult ! But needs must .
>
> It will be tough. Perhaps you can come with me.
> 😊
You could well end up cutting off your nose to spite your face by voting for the Little Helpers of the Tories. Historically the LibDems have not performed well at the EU elections - even when held on the same day as the Local Elections. I will be very surprised if they come at all close to Labour - and by supporting them you will help Farage to come in first.
It is Labour that is now bailing out the Tories.
If you don't like the LD, vote Green, but a vote for Labour is a vote fror Mrs May.
Labour getting a good vote share won't help May, if anything it will harm her. Labour doing badly gives the Tories cover.
Labour doing well also makes it less like Farage tops the poll.
H> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @justin124 said: > > > @nico67 said: > > > > @kinabalu said: > > > > I have never in my life voted anything but Labour. Why would I. But for these Euros, since they are essentially Ref2, have no meaning other than that, I am considering the Lib Dems as the best way to boost Remain and counter the unwelcome Farage movement. I may not be able to do it, my hand might not play ball when I get in there, but that somebody like me has an 'aspiration' to vote yellow rather than red speaks volumes. So making the (possibly dubious) assumption that what is going on in my leftish head is also going on in many other leftish heads I would say that the Lib Dems have a decent shot at 2nd. > > > > > > Remainers have to send a message to Labour . They need to see lots of votes moving to pro EU parties . I understand it might be difficult ! But needs must . > > > > I disagree there. Brexit should not be allowed to override other issues. > > Your posts are consistent in your plea that brexit does not overrule everything else but until a resolution of some form happens it will, as it is by a large margin the most disruptive and chaotic decision facing the country. > > Even I am struggling with the decision on the EU vote. I will not support Farage and the Brexit party and the only way to resist in many ways is to vote for the Lib Dems to try to give them a chance of standing up against Farage's Brexit
How can anyone suggest that “Brexit should not be allowed to override other issues”, when Brexit is the only issue in town as far as these elections are concerned. There is still every chance that the elected candidates won’t take their seats, or won’t be in office long enough to achieve anything. So all that matters is how the overall result of the elections affects the Brexit process. Voting Tory or Labour isn’t sending a clear message and hence your vote is wasted. Voters who want to send a message will vote for Farage or the LibDems.
> @TheJezziah said: > > @kinabalu said: > > > > @nico67 said: > > > > > @kinabalu said: > > > > > I have never in my life voted anything but Labour. Why would I. But for these Euros, since they are essentially Ref2, have no meaning other than that, I am considering the Lib Dems as the best way to boost Remain and counter the unwelcome Farage movement. I may not be able to do it, my hand might not play ball when I get in there, but that somebody like me has an 'aspiration' to vote yellow rather than red speaks volumes. So making the (possibly dubious) assumption that what is going on in my leftish head is also going on in many other leftish heads I would say that the Lib Dems have a decent shot at 2nd. > > > > > > > > Remainers have to send a message to Labour . They need to see lots of votes moving to pro EU parties . I understand it might be difficult ! But needs must . > > > > > > It will be tough. Perhaps you can come with me. > > > 😊 > > > > You could well end up cutting off your nose to spite your face by voting for the Little Helpers of the Tories. Historically the LibDems have not performed well at the EU elections - even when held on the same day as the Local Elections. I will be very surprised if they come at all close to Labour - and by supporting them you will help Farage to come in first. > > It is Labour that is now bailing out the Tories. > > If you don't like the LD, vote Green, but a vote for Labour is a vote fror Mrs May. > > Labour getting a good vote share won't help May, if anything it will harm her. Labour doing badly gives the Tories cover. > > Labour doing well also makes it less like Farage tops the poll.
The fact that we all see different motivations in each vote shows why interpreting the results with any confidence and accuracy is unlikely to be possible.
> > Or is it a Henry/Harry sort of situation and they'll call him Archie while being officially Archibald?
>
> They aren't calling him Archibald by the sound of it. Just taking the 'modern' approach of giving children half-arsed names.
Until we get a Fred Higginbottom Mountbatten-Windsor I'll refuse to believe the Royals have become plebified.
It's worse than that. They've gotten middle-class. They'll be driving Beemers next. Is it too much to ask for nobility and either a martial temperament or a lifetime doing solid unsung work for charity? They'll be going round offplan newbuilds next and complaining about the width of the driveway. Now that Prince Charles, he was a proper Royal, a bit mad, bonkers about architecture and had an affair with a perv. But this bunch are so normal (well, middle class normal) it's depressing. If I want estate agents as Royals I'll live in Scandinavia.
Archie. Put that on a mug. Oh, for the love of God...
Even I am struggling with the decision on the EU vote. I will not support Farage and the Brexit party and the only way to resist in many ways is to vote for the Lib Dems to try to give them a chance of standing up against Farage's Brexit
It will be a "Peoples' Vote" in all but name. No need for another referendum. Just tot up the numbers for BP+UKIP+DUP on the one hand and the LDs+CUK+Green+SNP on the other and ignore the equivocators (Con and Lab).
> @justin124 said: > > @kinabalu said: > > > @nico67 said: > > > > @kinabalu said: > > > > I have never in my life voted anything but Labour. Why would I. But for these Euros, since they are essentially Ref2, have no meaning other than that, I am considering the Lib Dems as the best way to boost Remain and counter the unwelcome Farage movement. I may not be able to do it, my hand might not play ball when I get in there, but that somebody like me has an 'aspiration' to vote yellow rather than red speaks volumes. So making the (possibly dubious) assumption that what is going on in my leftish head is also going on in many other leftish heads I would say that the Lib Dems have a decent shot at 2nd. > > > > > > Remainers have to send a message to Labour . They need to see lots of votes moving to pro EU parties . I understand it might be difficult ! But needs must . > > > > It will be tough. Perhaps you can come with me. > > 😊 > > You could well end up cutting off your nose to spite your face by voting for the Little Helpers of the Tories. Historically the LibDems have not performed well at the EU elections - even when held on the same day as the Local Elections. I will be very surprised if they come at all close to Labour - and by supporting them you will help Farage to come in first.
Farage will come first regardless of Labour’s performance. And Labour ARE the Tories’ little helpers - Gardiner has already told us so.
> @geoffw said: > .. > > Even I am struggling with the decision on the EU vote. I will not support Farage and the Brexit party and the only way to resist in many ways is to vote for the Lib Dems to try to give them a chance of standing up against Farage's Brexit > > It will be a "Peoples' Vote" in all but name. No need for another referendum. Just tot up the numbers for BP+UKIP+DUP on the one hand and the LDs+CUK+Green+SNP on the other and ignore the equivocators (Con and Lab).
Why ignore 30-40% of the voters? Why not have another vote if it is so important to find out whether we are split 51/49 one way or the other?
> @IanB2 said: > > @justin124 said: > > > @kinabalu said: > > > > @nico67 said: > > > > > @kinabalu said: > > > > > I have never in my life voted anything but Labour. Why would I. But for these Euros, since they are essentially Ref2, have no meaning other than that, I am considering the Lib Dems as the best way to boost Remain and counter the unwelcome Farage movement. I may not be able to do it, my hand might not play ball when I get in there, but that somebody like me has an 'aspiration' to vote yellow rather than red speaks volumes. So making the (possibly dubious) assumption that what is going on in my leftish head is also going on in many other leftish heads I would say that the Lib Dems have a decent shot at 2nd. > > > > > > > > Remainers have to send a message to Labour . They need to see lots of votes moving to pro EU parties . I understand it might be difficult ! But needs must . > > > > > > It will be tough. Perhaps you can come with me. > > > 😊 > > > > You could well end up cutting off your nose to spite your face by voting for the Little Helpers of the Tories. Historically the LibDems have not performed well at the EU elections - even when held on the same day as the Local Elections. I will be very surprised if they come at all close to Labour - and by supporting them you will help Farage to come in first. > > > Farage will come first regardless of Labour’s performance. And Labour ARE the Tories’ little helpers - Gardiner has already told us so.
I am not persuaded that Farage's success is quite as certain as you imply. Very little coverage by BBC over the past week - the Peterborough rally barely mentioned on main news etc.
> @Artist said: > I want to see an updated European Election poll to see if the Lib Dems have been given much of a boost from the local elections. They were struggling to break double figures before it.
I think we are all waiting for that. Except for Jeremy Corbyn
> @Big_G_NorthWales said: > > @justin124 said: > > > @nico67 said: > > > > @kinabalu said: > > > > I have never in my life voted anything but Labour. Why would I. But for these Euros, since they are essentially Ref2, have no meaning other than that, I am considering the Lib Dems as the best way to boost Remain and counter the unwelcome Farage movement. I may not be able to do it, my hand might not play ball when I get in there, but that somebody like me has an 'aspiration' to vote yellow rather than red speaks volumes. So making the (possibly dubious) assumption that what is going on in my leftish head is also going on in many other leftish heads I would say that the Lib Dems have a decent shot at 2nd. > > > > > > Remainers have to send a message to Labour . They need to see lots of votes moving to pro EU parties . I understand it might be difficult ! But needs must . > > > > I disagree there. Brexit should not be allowed to override other issues. > > Your posts are consistent in your plea that brexit does not overrule everything else but until a resolution of some form happens it will, as it is by a large margin the most disruptive and chaotic decision facing the country. > > Even I am struggling with the decision on the EU vote. I will not support Farage and the Brexit party and the only way to resist in many ways is to vote for the Lib Dems to try to give them a chance of standing up against Farage's Brexit
A lot of LD support at the Local Elections is precisely what is implied - ie 'Local' and based on very mundane parochial matters that do not carry over to Parliamentary and EU elections. Others supported them last week as an Anti-Establishment option - ditto the Greens - and a not insignificant number of those same voters will in two weeks time vote for the Brexit Party.
> @viewcode said: > > @SandyRentool said: > > > > @kle4 said: > > > > Prince Archie? > > > > > > > > Or is it a Henry/Harry sort of situation and they'll call him Archie while being officially Archibald? > > > > > > They aren't calling him Archibald by the sound of it. Just taking the 'modern' approach of giving children half-arsed names. > > > > Until we get a Fred Higginbottom Mountbatten-Windsor I'll refuse to believe the Royals have become plebified. > > It's worse than that. They've gotten middle-class. They'll be driving Beemers next. Is it too much to ask for nobility and either a martial temperament or a lifetime doing solid unsung work for charity? They'll be going round offplan newbuilds next and complaining about the width of the driveway. Now that Prince Charles, he was a proper Royal, a bit mad, bonkers about architecture and had an affair with a perv. But this bunch are so normal (well, middle class normal) it's depressing. If I want estate agents as Royals I'll live in Scandinavia. > > Archie. Put that on a mug. Oh, for the love of God...
Just imagine the hilarity that would ensue if they'd called him Nigel...
"People have focused a lot on the divisions that the referendum brought out, with leave v remain. But there’s probably a bigger one underlying it, which is London versus the rest."
"It creates that sense of two countries. Some areas are treated better than others and that has built division in our country over a long period of time … It does unite people, the feeling we in the north – particularly on transport – we are second-class citizens. Some of this bubbled through in the Scottish referendum and it undermines the social cohesion of the country."
Well spoken, Andy Burnham. How ironic, how true.
It is Londoners who caused Brexit with their fantastic greed and avarice and arrogance.
> @IanB2 said: > There is an additional betting risk with the LDs if some sort of last minute regional deal between them and CUK/Green does emerge.
Presumably that would involve divvying up the regions, one of the parties being the sole Remain list in each region. Unlikely at this stage.
I did wonder about some sort of coupon-like pledge (essentially to split Lab MEPs from Corbyn/Milne, and to reward the first list in each region to sign up with an official endorsement), but of course it has much less effect in a closed list system than in FPTP. Typically, the first time in my life when FPTP could have a slightly better outcome, and it is not being used...
You guys do realise that it’s all too late for this? They’re all on the ballot.
"People have focused a lot on the divisions that the referendum brought out, with leave v remain. But there’s probably a bigger one underlying it, which is London versus the rest."
"It creates that sense of two countries. Some areas are treated better than others and that has built division in our country over a long period of time … It does unite people, the feeling we in the north – particularly on transport – we are second-class citizens. Some of this bubbled through in the Scottish referendum and it undermines the social cohesion of the country."
Well spoken, Andy Burnham. How ironic, how true.
It is Londoners who caused Brexit with their fantastic greed and avarice and arrogance.
Shocking that the London Elite make up 48% of the population!
> @IanB2 said: > There is an additional betting risk with the LDs if some sort of last minute regional deal between them and CUK/Green does emerge.
Presumably that would involve divvying up the regions, one of the parties being the sole Remain list in each region. Unlikely at this stage.
I did wonder about some sort of coupon-like pledge (essentially to split Lab MEPs from Corbyn/Milne, and to reward the first list in each region to sign up with an official endorsement), but of course it has much less effect in a closed list system than in FPTP. Typically, the first time in my life when FPTP could have a slightly better outcome, and it is not being used...
You guys do realise that it’s all too late for this?
Stop bringing reality into Brexit debates!
Honestly, you'll be telling us next we can't leave without a Withdrawal Agreement...
"People have focused a lot on the divisions that the referendum brought out, with leave v remain. But there’s probably a bigger one underlying it, which is London versus the rest."
"It creates that sense of two countries. Some areas are treated better than others and that has built division in our country over a long period of time … It does unite people, the feeling we in the north – particularly on transport – we are second-class citizens. Some of this bubbled through in the Scottish referendum and it undermines the social cohesion of the country."
Well spoken, Andy Burnham. How ironic, how true.
It is Londoners who caused Brexit with their fantastic greed and avarice and arrogance.
Shocking that the London Elite make up 48% of the population!
Strange as well that I am among them despite hating London with a passion.
.. Why ignore 30-40% of the voters? Why not have another vote if it is so important to find out whether we are split 51/49 one way or the other?
First because the middle ground of voters in the Euros, whether for Con or for Lab, is very sparsely occupied (I don't buy your "30-40%": it'll be 30% max). And secondly because such voters don't care much either way about Brexit, as revealed by their vote for a party that prevaricates on the issue.
> @geoffw said: > .. > Why ignore 30-40% of the voters? Why not have another vote if it is so important to find out whether we are split 51/49 one way or the other? > > First because the middle ground of voters in the Euros, whether for Con or for Lab, is very sparsely occupied (I don't buy your "30-40%": it'll be 30% max). And secondly because such voters don't care much either way about Brexit, as revealed by their vote for a party that prevaricates on the issue.
The polls so far have had them between 34-43% combined, would be happy to have a bet at over/under 30% for Lab & Con combined at evens?
How do you know they dont care about it? What if they support Corbyns Brexit? Or Mays Brexit? How do we vote for those? How do you know green brexiteers arent still voting Green as they think climate change is the most important issue on the planet?
This allocating the votes to one side and adding them up is all nonsense, people will vote for all sorts of different reasons, if it is so important to know where the people stand the only way to find out is to ask them.
> @SandyRentool said: > "Educating Archie" will soon be a task bestowed upon Eton. > > "We're a normal family - we'll just be sending our son to the local school." Which, when you live in Windsor....
Another challenge for Eton in 13 years time coming up.
> > > Or is it a Henry/Harry sort of situation and they'll call him Archie while being officially Archibald?
>
> >
>
> > They aren't calling him Archibald by the sound of it. Just taking the 'modern' approach of giving children half-arsed names.
>
>
>
> Until we get a Fred Higginbottom Mountbatten-Windsor I'll refuse to believe the Royals have become plebified.
>
> It's worse than that. They've gotten middle-class. They'll be driving Beemers next. Is it too much to ask for nobility and either a martial temperament or a lifetime doing solid unsung work for charity? They'll be going round offplan newbuilds next and complaining about the width of the driveway. Now that Prince Charles, he was a proper Royal, a bit mad, bonkers about architecture and had an affair with a perv. But this bunch are so normal (well, middle class normal) it's depressing. If I want estate agents as Royals I'll live in Scandinavia.
>
> Archie. Put that on a mug. Oh, for the love of God...
Just imagine the hilarity that would ensue if they'd called him Nigel...
It took a while with Thatcher as well, after the 1987 election a senior figure was quoted as saying "that woman will not lead us into another election again". She was first challenged for the leadership by Sir Anthony Meyer in 1989 and the final death knell did not occur until a year later! So, I would not say things were as swift and decisive with Thatcher as you infer. Just look at how long John Major managed to cling to office post 1992 or Gordon Brown who was laughed at and mocked by journalists in official briefings in No.10 in 2009!
"People have focused a lot on the divisions that the referendum brought out, with leave v remain. But there’s probably a bigger one underlying it, which is London versus the rest."
"It creates that sense of two countries. Some areas are treated better than others and that has built division in our country over a long period of time … It does unite people, the feeling we in the north – particularly on transport – we are second-class citizens. Some of this bubbled through in the Scottish referendum and it undermines the social cohesion of the country."
Well spoken, Andy Burnham. How ironic, how true.
It is Londoners who caused Brexit with their fantastic greed and avarice and arrogance.
Shocking that the London Elite make up 48% of the population!
Strange as well that I am among them despite hating London with a passion.
The majority of Leicester and Liverpool too.
I guess second homes in the Cotswolds are passe compared with the Saff.
I get the impression with the current PM, she is not that political in terms of ideology. She could probably have just as easily joined the Labour party as the Tories. Ideology on her side of things has been invisible and I don't rate her capacity for decision making either. She is an utterly inept PM and those of us who knew better and warned about her unsuitability for the job were ignored. Reminds me of when Brown became PM, I was a lone voice who said that would not turn out well!
I get the impression with the current PM, she is not that political in terms of ideology. She could probably have just as easily joined the Labour party as the Tories. Ideology on her side of things has been invisible and I don't rate her capacity for decision making either. She is an utterly inept PM and those of us who knew better and warned about her unsuitability for the job were ignored. Reminds me of when Brown became PM, I was a lone voice who said that would not turn out well!
Actually, I wonder what the Broadcasting rules are for him as he No longer represents the party he was elected for last time. His old party still exists and so should he be given the broadcasting platform in line with the 2014 result or should he be invited only on rules that any other new party would be dealt with.
> @The_Taxman said: > > @isam said: > > About time > > > > https://twitter.com/bbcquestiontime/status/1126183560036134912 > > Actually, I wonder what the Broadcasting rules are for him as he No longer represents the party he was elected for last time. His old party still exists and so should he be given the broadcasting platform in line with the 2014 result or should he be invited only on rules that any other new party would be dealt with.
His party is polling 30% in the polls, of course he should be on, not giving him time would play into the betrayal, elite narrative.
Does anyone think Labour can hold Peterborough? My hunch is that it'll be won by either the Brexit Party or the Tories.
Yes, but that's not to say they will. A lot is going to depend on who the Brexit and Remain candidates are. They won't win, but they might split the vote decisively.
> @YBarddCwsc said: > There is so much in this article I agree with > > https://tinyurl.com/yyq3ochu > > "People have focused a lot on the divisions that the referendum brought out, with leave v remain. But there’s probably a bigger one underlying it, which is London versus the rest." > > "It creates that sense of two countries. Some areas are treated better than others and that has built division in our country over a long period of time … It does unite people, the feeling we in the north – particularly on transport – we are second-class citizens. Some of this bubbled through in the Scottish referendum and it undermines the social cohesion of the country." > > Well spoken, Andy Burnham. How ironic, how true. > > It is Londoners who caused Brexit with their fantastic greed and avarice and arrogance.
> @The_Taxman said: > > @TudorRose said: > > > @GIN1138 said: > > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > She's done it again. It's like f***ing Houdini!! > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1126160765390602240 > > > > > > When you think how the Tories eviscerated the Blessed Margaret. > > > > She had the political nous to know her time was up. > > I get the impression with the current PM, she is not that political in terms of ideology. She could probably have just as easily joined the Labour party as the Tories. Ideology on her side of things has been invisible and I don't rate her capacity for decision making either. She is an utterly inept PM and those of us who knew better and warned about her unsuitability for the job were ignored. Reminds me of when Brown became PM, I was a lone voice who said that would not turn out well!
Whatever else you think of May she has negotiated a Withdrawal Agreement, not sure Leadsom, Boris or Corbyn would have even got that far even if the latter are better campaigners than she is.
Also got my first European elections communication today from the Tories stating 'How to show you want a Brexit deal delivered as soon as possible' ie vote Conservative, though the statement 'The only party which can get Brexit done is the Conservative Party' might be a tad overstated.
I’m not planning on voting for him but it has been quite funny reading pb.com the last couple of days (I’ve generally been too busy to comment) and see our regular Remain contingent get Farage wrong all over again.
The irony of serious posters thinking that his appearance on some US radio show is a smoking gun or demanding he answer “who funds you?” is so wide of the mark it’s remarkable.
It’s one reason I think they should be very nervous about a 2nd referendum.
Is Farage coming on the telly to apologise for the mess and misery that he has caused? Or is going to be pending more outage and easy solutions to complex problems?
Without looking at twitter you just know there will be people having meltdowns saying he's on every week etc, even when the facts say he has appeared just twice since the EU referendum (one less than Soubry which the FBPE crowd will no doubt avoid mentioning) .
Should be entertaining with Soubry, but the fact is the remain argument has no one as convincing as Farage to spread their message and hence many want to stop him getting any publicity. I haven't watched QT in months but am looking forward to this.
On the royal baby, I’m sure the royal family are (rightfully) delighted but I have lost patience with so many in the commentariat using it to make the same old point about how wonderful modern-day multi-racial Britain is over the last few days, and make themselves look wholly right-on at the same time.
Well if you’re mad enough to go back to the inception of Question Time... All you’re proving is that there was a broad consensus for many years across all politicians who were not unhinged that EU membership was a good thing.
> @ydoethur said: > Anecdata, but the only European election material I've received so far has been from the Brexit Party. I'm in Scotland, if that makes any difference. > > Yet more small blood-sucking things to add to all the midges?
Is Farage coming on the telly to apologise for the mess and misery that he has caused? Or is going to be pending more outage and easy solutions to complex problems?
Farage would be killed (politically) if other politicians delivered on the root causes of his appeal, rather than just paid lip service to them.
They haven’t so he isn’t. And, whilst he has his limits, within those limits he’s very good at it.
> @Jonathan said: > Is Farage coming on the telly to apologise for the mess and misery that he has caused? Or is going to be pending more outage and easy solutions to complex problems?
He's coming on to cheat in the European elections I think.
> @Pulpstar said: > Nigel Evans bigging up the Brexit party !
It's almost as if the Tories have thrown in the towel as far as the Euro elections are concerned, and they'd rather get no votes than something like 13%.
> @Casino_Royale said: > Is Farage coming on the telly to apologise for the mess and misery that he has caused? Or is going to be pending more outage and easy solutions to complex problems? > > Farage would be killed (politically) if other politicians delivered on the root causes of his appeal, rather than just paid lip service to them. > > They haven’t so he isn’t. And, whilst he has his limits, within those limits he’s very good at it.
The trick with these 'characters' is that their diagnosis of the problems/concerns is generally quite good, perhaps more acute than more conventional politicians. Spotting things that others miss.
Where it goes wrong is that their solutions are utterly catastrophic.
The challenge for other politicians is to recognise the problems, without legitimising the solutions.
> @kinabalu said: > > @nico67 said: > > > @kinabalu said: > > > I have never in my life voted anything but Labour. Why would I. But for these Euros, since they are essentially Ref2, have no meaning other than that, I am considering the Lib Dems as the best way to boost Remain and counter the unwelcome Farage movement. I may not be able to do it, my hand might not play ball when I get in there, but that somebody like me has an 'aspiration' to vote yellow rather than red speaks volumes. So making the (possibly dubious) assumption that what is going on in my leftish head is also going on in many other leftish heads I would say that the Lib Dems have a decent shot at 2nd. > > > > Remainers have to send a message to Labour . They need to see lots of votes moving to pro EU parties . I understand it might be difficult ! But needs must . > > It will be tough. Perhaps you can come with me. > 😊
I suppose the one thing that might throw a curveball into proceedings is what happens if the Tory Labour talks fail this week . What if Labour say they’ve exhausted everything but now need to support a second vote . Yes I know it’s unlikely but we live in strange times .
I think unless that happens Labour Remainers are left with no choice but to support other pro EU parties . I just don’t see what else we can do to send a strong message to Corbyn and co.
> Is Farage coming on the telly to apologise for the mess and misery that he has caused? Or is going to be pending more outage and easy solutions to complex problems?
>
> Farage would be killed (politically) if other politicians delivered on the root causes of his appeal, rather than just paid lip service to them.
>
> They haven’t so he isn’t. And, whilst he has his limits, within those limits he’s very good at it.
The trick with these 'characters' is that their diagnosis of the problems is generally quite good, perhaps more acute than more conventional politicians.
Where it goes wrong is that their solutions are utterly catastrophic.
The challenge for other politicians is to recognise the problems, without legitimising the solutions.
No-one, to date, has pulled that off.
The challenge for other politicians is to come up with their own solutions that take seriously those problems.
For someone like Farage, it’d start by not sneering at those who feel proudly British and that the political project of the EU threatens that identity and taking their concerns over an inability to control mass immigration seriously with direct levers.
As it happens, I felt May had squared that circle and we could have moved on but due to her political incompetence, stupidity of the ERG and the opportunism of the opposition we are not in that world.
That still doesn’t mean her strategic assessment wasn’t correct.
> @Jonathan said: > > @Casino_Royale said: > > Is Farage coming on the telly to apologise for the mess and misery that he has caused? Or is going to be pending more outage and easy solutions to complex problems? > > > > Farage would be killed (politically) if other politicians delivered on the root causes of his appeal, rather than just paid lip service to them. > > > > They haven’t so he isn’t. And, whilst he has his limits, within those limits he’s very good at it. > > The trick with these 'characters' is that their diagnosis of the problems/concerns is generally quite good, perhaps more acute than more conventional politicians. Spotting things that others miss. > > Where it goes wrong is that their solutions are utterly catastrophic. > > The challenge for other politicians is to recognise the problems, without legitimising the solutions. > > No-one, to date, has pulled that off.
Agreed, also they need to come up with solutions, even partial solutions that make some progress and sell those ideas.
The sheer chutzpah of Farage to criticise May/Corbyn seeking compromise to implement his batshit ideas and gain political momentum from their struggle, is really rather impressive. Obviously, he's never actually had to deliver any policy in his life, but if you're into the worst kind of politics, he really is legitimate student of the master in the White House.
> Is Farage coming on the telly to apologise for the mess and misery that he has caused? Or is going to be pending more outage and easy solutions to complex problems?
He's coming on to cheat in the European elections I think.
To be slightly serious about this, it’s interesting that half that list are Lib Dems. I guess, like Ukip, they didn’t have as many household names so the same ones come on more often than Tory and Labour individuals.
I don’t have the stats to back this up, but I reckon the government sends on lower ranked ministers than in the good old days which is a shame.
> @Casino_Royale said: > On the royal baby, I’m sure the royal family are (rightfully) delighted but I have lost patience with so many in the commentariat using it to make the same old point about how wonderful modern-day multi-racial Britain is over the last few days, and make themselves look wholly right-on at the same time. > > Don’t they have anything new to say?
I should imagine that the new baby as it grows up is going to feel like an outsider. Not by his mother or even his father but the wheels of change are very slow to turn in such a conservative establishment. I welcome the child to the world but I suspect the child's life will be blighted by identity problems. Hopefully, I will be proved wrong but as we saw with Diana, if you don't fit in you will experience a lifetime of grief...
> @Casino_Royale said: > > @Jonathan said: > > > Is Farage coming on the telly to apologise for the mess and misery that he has caused? Or is going to be pending more outage and easy solutions to complex problems? > > > > He's coming on to cheat in the European elections I think. > > How?
Dark money, russian bots, red buses that sort of thing.
On the royal baby, I’m sure the royal family are (rightfully) delighted but I have lost patience with so many in the commentariat using it to make the same old point about how wonderful modern-day multi-racial Britain is over the last few days, and make themselves look wholly right-on at the same time.
Comments
> > @rottenborough said:
> > She's done it again. It's like f***ing Houdini!!
> >
> > https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1126160765390602240
>
> Right now, I’m betting she just wants to get past Brown’s time in office. Shortest serving PM since Alec Douglas-Home doesn’t have a fab ring to it...
Worst fucking PM ever doesn't have a fab ring to it either.
(At this point we shall find out how many Biggles fans are in this forum.)
> Liam Fox now sets his sights on reforming the WTO, to better meet UK wishes...
If Trump gets reelected will there be much of a WTO by the time we actually leave?
> > @kinabalu said:
> > I have never in my life voted anything but Labour. Why would I. But for these Euros, since they are essentially Ref2, have no meaning other than that, I am considering the Lib Dems as the best way to boost Remain and counter the unwelcome Farage movement. I may not be able to do it, my hand might not play ball when I get in there, but that somebody like me has an 'aspiration' to vote yellow rather than red speaks volumes. So making the (possibly dubious) assumption that what is going on in my leftish head is also going on in many other leftish heads I would say that the Lib Dems have a decent shot at 2nd.
>
> Remainers have to send a message to Labour . They need to see lots of votes moving to pro EU parties . I understand it might be difficult ! But needs must .
It will be tough. Perhaps you can come with me.
😊
All this nonsense about what makes the English, English is just vom-inducing nostalgia.
We're a mixed race bunch ourselves and have been ever since hordes of Vikings and Normans landed to mingle amongst the native factions. We're been seafaring for at least two thousand years, open-facing and embracing of all cultures and peoples, occasionally literally. There's plenty of international blood in the veins of Brits.
We're at our best when we take our place as a progressive people.
So it's bloody great that Harry and Meghan come across as non-royal and normal. Diana would be very proud today.
> > @kinabalu said:
> > I have never in my life voted anything but Labour. Why would I. But for these Euros, since they are essentially Ref2, have no meaning other than that, I am considering the Lib Dems as the best way to boost Remain and counter the unwelcome Farage movement. I may not be able to do it, my hand might not play ball when I get in there, but that somebody like me has an 'aspiration' to vote yellow rather than red speaks volumes. So making the (possibly dubious) assumption that what is going on in my leftish head is also going on in many other leftish heads I would say that the Lib Dems have a decent shot at 2nd.
>
> Remainers have to send a message to Labour . They need to see lots of votes moving to pro EU parties . I understand it might be difficult ! But needs must .
I disagree there. Brexit should not be allowed to override other issues.
> > @rottenborough said:
> > She's done it again. It's like f***ing Houdini!!
> >
> > https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1126160765390602240
>
> Right now, I’m betting she just wants to get past Brown’s time in office. Shortest serving PM since Alec Douglas-Home doesn’t have a fab ring to it...
She has already beaten Anthony Eden!
> > @nico67 said:
> > > @kinabalu said:
> > > I have never in my life voted anything but Labour. Why would I. But for these Euros, since they are essentially Ref2, have no meaning other than that, I am considering the Lib Dems as the best way to boost Remain and counter the unwelcome Farage movement. I may not be able to do it, my hand might not play ball when I get in there, but that somebody like me has an 'aspiration' to vote yellow rather than red speaks volumes. So making the (possibly dubious) assumption that what is going on in my leftish head is also going on in many other leftish heads I would say that the Lib Dems have a decent shot at 2nd.
> >
> > Remainers have to send a message to Labour . They need to see lots of votes moving to pro EU parties . I understand it might be difficult ! But needs must .
>
> I disagree there. Brexit should not be allowed to override other issues.
The problem with Brexit is due to the economics of it, any conclusion to it will result in an impact on Government spending. So in many ways it has the potential to dictate the Governments future spending commitments. So, for that reason it supersedes other more acute issues lower down the pecking order. It is also the European elections, so why not vote for a Remain or Brexit party to help the politicians to either stop Brexit or carry on with it?
> > @nico67 said:
> > > @kinabalu said:
> > > I have never in my life voted anything but Labour. Why would I. But for these Euros, since they are essentially Ref2, have no meaning other than that, I am considering the Lib Dems as the best way to boost Remain and counter the unwelcome Farage movement. I may not be able to do it, my hand might not play ball when I get in there, but that somebody like me has an 'aspiration' to vote yellow rather than red speaks volumes. So making the (possibly dubious) assumption that what is going on in my leftish head is also going on in many other leftish heads I would say that the Lib Dems have a decent shot at 2nd.
> >
> > Remainers have to send a message to Labour . They need to see lots of votes moving to pro EU parties . I understand it might be difficult ! But needs must .
>
> It will be tough. Perhaps you can come with me.
> 😊
You could well end up cutting off your nose to spite your face by voting for the Little Helpers of the Tories. Historically the LibDems have not performed well at the EU elections - even when held on the same day as the Local Elections. I will be very surprised if they come at all close to Labour - and by supporting them you will help Farage to come in first.
> Archie's a great name. Love it.
>
> All this nonsense about what makes the English, English is just vom-inducing nostalgia.
>
> We're a mixed race bunch ourselves and have been ever since hordes of Vikings and Normans landed to mingle amongst the native factions. We're been seafaring for at least two thousand years, open-facing and embracing of all cultures and peoples, occasionally literally. There's plenty of international blood in the veins of Brits.
>
> We're at our best when we take our place as a progressive people.
>
> So it's bloody great that Harry and Meghan come across as non-royal and normal. Diana would be very proud today.
Yeah, nothing more progressive than literal royalty cosplaying as what they think constitutes normal
"We're a normal family - we'll just be sending our son to the local school." Which, when you live in Windsor....
> > @justin124 said:
> > > @nico67 said:
> > > > @kinabalu said:
> > > > I have never in my life voted anything but Labour. Why would I. But for these Euros, since they are essentially Ref2, have no meaning other than that, I am considering the Lib Dems as the best way to boost Remain and counter the unwelcome Farage movement. I may not be able to do it, my hand might not play ball when I get in there, but that somebody like me has an 'aspiration' to vote yellow rather than red speaks volumes. So making the (possibly dubious) assumption that what is going on in my leftish head is also going on in many other leftish heads I would say that the Lib Dems have a decent shot at 2nd.
> > >
> > > Remainers have to send a message to Labour . They need to see lots of votes moving to pro EU parties . I understand it might be difficult ! But needs must .
> >
> > I disagree there. Brexit should not be allowed to override other issues.
>
> The problem with Brexit is due to the economics of it, any conclusion to it will result in an impact on Government spending. So in many ways it has the potential to dictate the Governments future spending commitments. So, for that reason it supersedes other more acute issues lower down the pecking order. It is also the European elections, so why not vote for a Remain or Brexit party to help the politicians to either stop Brexit or carry on with it?
Not sure the votes are going to help clarify anything let alone help make any decisions. Both sides will see what they want in the results, complain about the other side misinterpreting the results and stick to their positions.
> > @kinabalu said:
> > > @nico67 said:
> > > > @kinabalu said:
> > > > I have never in my life voted anything but Labour. Why would I. But for these Euros, since they are essentially Ref2, have no meaning other than that, I am considering the Lib Dems as the best way to boost Remain and counter the unwelcome Farage movement. I may not be able to do it, my hand might not play ball when I get in there, but that somebody like me has an 'aspiration' to vote yellow rather than red speaks volumes. So making the (possibly dubious) assumption that what is going on in my leftish head is also going on in many other leftish heads I would say that the Lib Dems have a decent shot at 2nd.
> > >
> > > Remainers have to send a message to Labour . They need to see lots of votes moving to pro EU parties . I understand it might be difficult ! But needs must .
> >
> > It will be tough. Perhaps you can come with me.
> > 😊
>
> You could well end up cutting off your nose to spite your face by voting for the Little Helpers of the Tories. Historically the LibDems have not performed well at the EU elections - even when held on the same day as the Local Elections. I will be very surprised if they come at all close to Labour - and by supporting them you will help Farage to come in first.
Just out of interest why will you vote Labour in the European elections, what is the driver? Party loyalty, specific policies or personalities?
"Archie! Exercise!"
"Extra fries? Did you say extra fries...? Oh... exercise!"
> > @kle4 said:
> > Prince Archie?
> >
> > Or is it a Henry/Harry sort of situation and they'll call him Archie while being officially Archibald?
>
> They aren't calling him Archibald by the sound of it. Just taking the 'modern' approach of giving children half-arsed names.
Until we get a Fred Higginbottom Mountbatten-Windsor I'll refuse to believe the Royals have become plebified.
If you don't like the LD, vote Green, but a vote for Labour is a vote fror Mrs May.
> @crandles said:
> So what is wrong with betting on Jacob RM at 85 to be next tory leader and laying at 46 to be next PM?
> Chance of tories splitting and JRM leading a faction is significant or he might become acting PM but not next leader of tories or .... ???
A pretty rubbish return?
> There is an additional betting risk with the LDs if some sort of last minute regional deal between them and CUK/Green does emerge.
Presumably that would involve divvying up the regions, one of the parties being the sole Remain list in each region. Unlikely at this stage.
I did wonder about some sort of coupon-like pledge (essentially to split Lab MEPs from Corbyn/Milne, and to reward the first list in each region to sign up with an official endorsement), but of course it has much less effect in a closed list system than in FPTP. Typically, the first time in my life when FPTP could have a slightly better outcome, and it is not being used...
As it stands, I think quite a lot of Tory Remainers will find CUK tempting. Not sure the Lib Dems can pick up that many of them.
> > @nico67 said:
> > > @kinabalu said:
> > > I have never in my life voted anything but Labour. Why would I. But for these Euros, since they are essentially Ref2, have no meaning other than that, I am considering the Lib Dems as the best way to boost Remain and counter the unwelcome Farage movement. I may not be able to do it, my hand might not play ball when I get in there, but that somebody like me has an 'aspiration' to vote yellow rather than red speaks volumes. So making the (possibly dubious) assumption that what is going on in my leftish head is also going on in many other leftish heads I would say that the Lib Dems have a decent shot at 2nd.
> >
> > Remainers have to send a message to Labour . They need to see lots of votes moving to pro EU parties . I understand it might be difficult ! But needs must .
>
> I disagree there. Brexit should not be allowed to override other issues.
Your posts are consistent in your plea that brexit does not overrule everything else but until a resolution of some form happens it will, as it is by a large margin the most disruptive and chaotic decision facing the country.
Even I am struggling with the decision on the EU vote. I will not support Farage and the Brexit party and the only way to resist in many ways is to vote for the Lib Dems to try to give them a chance of standing up against Farage's Brexit
Labour doing well also makes it less like Farage tops the poll.
> > @justin124 said:
> > > @nico67 said:
> > > > @kinabalu said:
> > > > I have never in my life voted anything but Labour. Why would I. But for these Euros, since they are essentially Ref2, have no meaning other than that, I am considering the Lib Dems as the best way to boost Remain and counter the unwelcome Farage movement. I may not be able to do it, my hand might not play ball when I get in there, but that somebody like me has an 'aspiration' to vote yellow rather than red speaks volumes. So making the (possibly dubious) assumption that what is going on in my leftish head is also going on in many other leftish heads I would say that the Lib Dems have a decent shot at 2nd.
> > >
> > > Remainers have to send a message to Labour . They need to see lots of votes moving to pro EU parties . I understand it might be difficult ! But needs must .
> >
> > I disagree there. Brexit should not be allowed to override other issues.
>
> Your posts are consistent in your plea that brexit does not overrule everything else but until a resolution of some form happens it will, as it is by a large margin the most disruptive and chaotic decision facing the country.
>
> Even I am struggling with the decision on the EU vote. I will not support Farage and the Brexit party and the only way to resist in many ways is to vote for the Lib Dems to try to give them a chance of standing up against Farage's Brexit
How can anyone suggest that “Brexit should not be allowed to override other issues”, when Brexit is the only issue in town as far as these elections are concerned. There is still every chance that the elected candidates won’t take their seats, or won’t be in office long enough to achieve anything. So all that matters is how the overall result of the elections affects the Brexit process. Voting Tory or Labour isn’t sending a clear message and hence your vote is wasted. Voters who want to send a message will vote for Farage or the LibDems.
> > @kinabalu said:
>
> > > @nico67 said:
>
> > > > @kinabalu said:
>
> > > > I have never in my life voted anything but Labour. Why would I. But for these Euros, since they are essentially Ref2, have no meaning other than that, I am considering the Lib Dems as the best way to boost Remain and counter the unwelcome Farage movement. I may not be able to do it, my hand might not play ball when I get in there, but that somebody like me has an 'aspiration' to vote yellow rather than red speaks volumes. So making the (possibly dubious) assumption that what is going on in my leftish head is also going on in many other leftish heads I would say that the Lib Dems have a decent shot at 2nd.
>
> > >
>
> > > Remainers have to send a message to Labour . They need to see lots of votes moving to pro EU parties . I understand it might be difficult ! But needs must .
>
> >
>
> > It will be tough. Perhaps you can come with me.
>
> > 😊
>
>
>
> You could well end up cutting off your nose to spite your face by voting for the Little Helpers of the Tories. Historically the LibDems have not performed well at the EU elections - even when held on the same day as the Local Elections. I will be very surprised if they come at all close to Labour - and by supporting them you will help Farage to come in first.
>
> It is Labour that is now bailing out the Tories.
>
> If you don't like the LD, vote Green, but a vote for Labour is a vote fror Mrs May.
>
> Labour getting a good vote share won't help May, if anything it will harm her. Labour doing badly gives the Tories cover.
>
> Labour doing well also makes it less like Farage tops the poll.
The fact that we all see different motivations in each vote shows why interpreting the results with any confidence and accuracy is unlikely to be possible.
Archie. Put that on a mug. Oh, for the love of God...
> > @kinabalu said:
> > > @nico67 said:
> > > > @kinabalu said:
> > > > I have never in my life voted anything but Labour. Why would I. But for these Euros, since they are essentially Ref2, have no meaning other than that, I am considering the Lib Dems as the best way to boost Remain and counter the unwelcome Farage movement. I may not be able to do it, my hand might not play ball when I get in there, but that somebody like me has an 'aspiration' to vote yellow rather than red speaks volumes. So making the (possibly dubious) assumption that what is going on in my leftish head is also going on in many other leftish heads I would say that the Lib Dems have a decent shot at 2nd.
> > >
> > > Remainers have to send a message to Labour . They need to see lots of votes moving to pro EU parties . I understand it might be difficult ! But needs must .
> >
> > It will be tough. Perhaps you can come with me.
> > 😊
>
> You could well end up cutting off your nose to spite your face by voting for the Little Helpers of the Tories. Historically the LibDems have not performed well at the EU elections - even when held on the same day as the Local Elections. I will be very surprised if they come at all close to Labour - and by supporting them you will help Farage to come in first.
Farage will come first regardless of Labour’s performance. And Labour ARE the Tories’ little helpers - Gardiner has already told us so.
> ..
>
> Even I am struggling with the decision on the EU vote. I will not support Farage and the Brexit party and the only way to resist in many ways is to vote for the Lib Dems to try to give them a chance of standing up against Farage's Brexit
>
> It will be a "Peoples' Vote" in all but name. No need for another referendum. Just tot up the numbers for BP+UKIP+DUP on the one hand and the LDs+CUK+Green+SNP on the other and ignore the equivocators (Con and Lab).
Why ignore 30-40% of the voters? Why not have another vote if it is so important to find out whether we are split 51/49 one way or the other?
> > @justin124 said:
> > > @kinabalu said:
> > > > @nico67 said:
> > > > > @kinabalu said:
> > > > > I have never in my life voted anything but Labour. Why would I. But for these Euros, since they are essentially Ref2, have no meaning other than that, I am considering the Lib Dems as the best way to boost Remain and counter the unwelcome Farage movement. I may not be able to do it, my hand might not play ball when I get in there, but that somebody like me has an 'aspiration' to vote yellow rather than red speaks volumes. So making the (possibly dubious) assumption that what is going on in my leftish head is also going on in many other leftish heads I would say that the Lib Dems have a decent shot at 2nd.
> > > >
> > > > Remainers have to send a message to Labour . They need to see lots of votes moving to pro EU parties . I understand it might be difficult ! But needs must .
> > >
> > > It will be tough. Perhaps you can come with me.
> > > 😊
> >
> > You could well end up cutting off your nose to spite your face by voting for the Little Helpers of the Tories. Historically the LibDems have not performed well at the EU elections - even when held on the same day as the Local Elections. I will be very surprised if they come at all close to Labour - and by supporting them you will help Farage to come in first.
>
>
> Farage will come first regardless of Labour’s performance. And Labour ARE the Tories’ little helpers - Gardiner has already told us so.
I am not persuaded that Farage's success is quite as certain as you imply. Very little coverage by BBC over the past week - the Peterborough rally barely mentioned on main news etc.
> I want to see an updated European Election poll to see if the Lib Dems have been given much of a boost from the local elections. They were struggling to break double figures before it.
I think we are all waiting for that. Except for Jeremy Corbyn
https://www.news24.com/Elections/
> > @justin124 said:
> > > @nico67 said:
> > > > @kinabalu said:
> > > > I have never in my life voted anything but Labour. Why would I. But for these Euros, since they are essentially Ref2, have no meaning other than that, I am considering the Lib Dems as the best way to boost Remain and counter the unwelcome Farage movement. I may not be able to do it, my hand might not play ball when I get in there, but that somebody like me has an 'aspiration' to vote yellow rather than red speaks volumes. So making the (possibly dubious) assumption that what is going on in my leftish head is also going on in many other leftish heads I would say that the Lib Dems have a decent shot at 2nd.
> > >
> > > Remainers have to send a message to Labour . They need to see lots of votes moving to pro EU parties . I understand it might be difficult ! But needs must .
> >
> > I disagree there. Brexit should not be allowed to override other issues.
>
> Your posts are consistent in your plea that brexit does not overrule everything else but until a resolution of some form happens it will, as it is by a large margin the most disruptive and chaotic decision facing the country.
>
> Even I am struggling with the decision on the EU vote. I will not support Farage and the Brexit party and the only way to resist in many ways is to vote for the Lib Dems to try to give them a chance of standing up against Farage's Brexit
A lot of LD support at the Local Elections is precisely what is implied - ie 'Local' and based on very mundane parochial matters that do not carry over to Parliamentary and EU elections. Others supported them last week as an Anti-Establishment option - ditto the Greens - and a not insignificant number of those same voters will in two weeks time vote for the Brexit Party.
> > @SandyRentool said:
>
> > > @kle4 said:
>
> > > Prince Archie?
>
> > >
>
> > > Or is it a Henry/Harry sort of situation and they'll call him Archie while being officially Archibald?
>
> >
>
> > They aren't calling him Archibald by the sound of it. Just taking the 'modern' approach of giving children half-arsed names.
>
>
>
> Until we get a Fred Higginbottom Mountbatten-Windsor I'll refuse to believe the Royals have become plebified.
>
> It's worse than that. They've gotten middle-class. They'll be driving Beemers next. Is it too much to ask for nobility and either a martial temperament or a lifetime doing solid unsung work for charity? They'll be going round offplan newbuilds next and complaining about the width of the driveway. Now that Prince Charles, he was a proper Royal, a bit mad, bonkers about architecture and had an affair with a perv. But this bunch are so normal (well, middle class normal) it's depressing. If I want estate agents as Royals I'll live in Scandinavia.
>
> Archie. Put that on a mug. Oh, for the love of God...
Just imagine the hilarity that would ensue if they'd called him Nigel...
https://tinyurl.com/yyq3ochu
"People have focused a lot on the divisions that the referendum brought out, with leave v remain. But there’s probably a bigger one underlying it, which is London versus the rest."
"It creates that sense of two countries. Some areas are treated better than others and that has built division in our country over a long period of time … It does unite people, the feeling we in the north – particularly on transport – we are second-class citizens. Some of this bubbled through in the Scottish referendum and it undermines the social cohesion of the country."
Well spoken, Andy Burnham. How ironic, how true.
It is Londoners who caused Brexit with their fantastic greed and avarice and arrogance.
Honestly, you'll be telling us next we can't leave without a Withdrawal Agreement...
> She's done it again. It's like f***ing Houdini!!
>
> https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1126160765390602240
When you think how the Tories eviscerated the Blessed Margaret.
> Shocking that the London Elite make up 48% of the population!
If you read the article -- which you clearly haven't -- you'd see the key phrase is "some areas are treated better than others".
> Big win for the bookies on the sprog’s name.
If Spurs can do the unthinkable and turn up, is it to late to go for 'Son' rather than Archie?
> ..
> Why ignore 30-40% of the voters? Why not have another vote if it is so important to find out whether we are split 51/49 one way or the other?
>
> First because the middle ground of voters in the Euros, whether for Con or for Lab, is very sparsely occupied (I don't buy your "30-40%": it'll be 30% max). And secondly because such voters don't care much either way about Brexit, as revealed by their vote for a party that prevaricates on the issue.
The polls so far have had them between 34-43% combined, would be happy to have a bet at over/under 30% for Lab & Con combined at evens?
How do you know they dont care about it? What if they support Corbyns Brexit? Or Mays Brexit? How do we vote for those? How do you know green brexiteers arent still voting Green as they think climate change is the most important issue on the planet?
This allocating the votes to one side and adding them up is all nonsense, people will vote for all sorts of different reasons, if it is so important to know where the people stand the only way to find out is to ask them.
> "Educating Archie" will soon be a task bestowed upon Eton.
>
> "We're a normal family - we'll just be sending our son to the local school." Which, when you live in Windsor....
Another challenge for Eton in 13 years time coming up.
> > @rottenborough said:
> > She's done it again. It's like f***ing Houdini!!
> >
> > https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1126160765390602240
>
> When you think how the Tories eviscerated the Blessed Margaret.
It took a while with Thatcher as well, after the 1987 election a senior figure was quoted as saying "that woman will not lead us into another election again". She was first challenged for the leadership by Sir Anthony Meyer in 1989 and the final death knell did not occur until a year later! So, I would not say things were as swift and decisive with Thatcher as you infer. Just look at how long John Major managed to cling to office post 1992 or Gordon Brown who was laughed at and mocked by journalists in official briefings in No.10 in 2009!
I guess second homes in the Cotswolds are passe compared with the Saff.
> > @rottenborough said:
> > She's done it again. It's like f***ing Houdini!!
> >
> > https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1126160765390602240
>
> When you think how the Tories eviscerated the Blessed Margaret.
She had the political nous to know her time was up.
https://twitter.com/bbcquestiontime/status/1126183560036134912?s=21
> > @GIN1138 said:
> > > @rottenborough said:
> > > She's done it again. It's like f***ing Houdini!!
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1126160765390602240
> >
> > When you think how the Tories eviscerated the Blessed Margaret.
>
> She had the political nous to know her time was up.
I get the impression with the current PM, she is not that political in terms of ideology. She could probably have just as easily joined the Labour party as the Tories. Ideology on her side of things has been invisible and I don't rate her capacity for decision making either. She is an utterly inept PM and those of us who knew better and warned about her unsuitability for the job were ignored. Reminds me of when Brown became PM, I was a lone voice who said that would not turn out well!
CES 2019: Sex toy reawarded robotics prize
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-48200118
> About time
>
> https://twitter.com/bbcquestiontime/status/1126183560036134912
Actually, I wonder what the Broadcasting rules are for him as he No longer represents the party he was elected for last time. His old party still exists and so should he be given the broadcasting platform in line with the 2014 result or should he be invited only on rules that any other new party would be dealt with.
> > @isam said:
> > About time
> >
> > https://twitter.com/bbcquestiontime/status/1126183560036134912
>
> Actually, I wonder what the Broadcasting rules are for him as he No longer represents the party he was elected for last time. His old party still exists and so should he be given the broadcasting platform in line with the 2014 result or should he be invited only on rules that any other new party would be dealt with.
His party is polling 30% in the polls, of course he should be on, not giving him time would play into the betrayal, elite narrative.
> About time
>
> https://twitter.com/bbcquestiontime/status/1126183560036134912
The ego has landed.
> There is so much in this article I agree with
>
> https://tinyurl.com/yyq3ochu
>
> "People have focused a lot on the divisions that the referendum brought out, with leave v remain. But there’s probably a bigger one underlying it, which is London versus the rest."
>
> "It creates that sense of two countries. Some areas are treated better than others and that has built division in our country over a long period of time … It does unite people, the feeling we in the north – particularly on transport – we are second-class citizens. Some of this bubbled through in the Scottish referendum and it undermines the social cohesion of the country."
>
> Well spoken, Andy Burnham. How ironic, how true.
>
> It is Londoners who caused Brexit with their fantastic greed and avarice and arrogance.
I wrote about this a while back:
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/06/06/the-language-of-priorities-what-we-talk-about-when-we-talk-about-infrastructure/
> About time
>
> https://twitter.com/bbcquestiontime/status/1126183560036134912
>
>
>
> Because he's been on it so rarely in the past?
I believe he’s the most frequent guest on Question Time in the 21st century.
> > @TudorRose said:
> > > @GIN1138 said:
> > > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > She's done it again. It's like f***ing Houdini!!
> > > >
> > > > https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1126160765390602240
> > >
> > > When you think how the Tories eviscerated the Blessed Margaret.
> >
> > She had the political nous to know her time was up.
>
> I get the impression with the current PM, she is not that political in terms of ideology. She could probably have just as easily joined the Labour party as the Tories. Ideology on her side of things has been invisible and I don't rate her capacity for decision making either. She is an utterly inept PM and those of us who knew better and warned about her unsuitability for the job were ignored. Reminds me of when Brown became PM, I was a lone voice who said that would not turn out well!
Whatever else you think of May she has negotiated a Withdrawal Agreement, not sure Leadsom, Boris or Corbyn would have even got that far even if the latter are better campaigners than she is.
Also got my first European elections communication today from the Tories stating 'How to show you want a Brexit deal delivered as soon as possible' ie vote Conservative, though the statement 'The only party which can get Brexit done is the Conservative Party' might be a tad overstated.
Looks like a mailshot and rally campaign
> About time
>
> https://twitter.com/bbcquestiontime/status/1126183560036134912
>
>
>
> Because he's been on it so rarely in the past?
https://order-order.com/2019/05/03/question-times-top-spots-10-0-remainers/
Not words that go together comfortably...
The irony of serious posters thinking that his appearance on some US radio show is a smoking gun or demanding he answer “who funds you?” is so wide of the mark it’s remarkable.
It’s one reason I think they should be very nervous about a 2nd referendum.
> > @viewcode said:
> > About time
> >
> > https://twitter.com/bbcquestiontime/status/1126183560036134912
> >
> >
> >
> > Because he's been on it so rarely in the past?
>
> I believe he’s the most frequent guest on Question Time in the 21st century.
Without looking at twitter you just know there will be people having meltdowns saying he's on every week etc, even when the facts say he has appeared just twice since the EU referendum (one less than Soubry which the FBPE crowd will no doubt avoid mentioning) .
Should be entertaining with Soubry, but the fact is the remain argument has no one as convincing as Farage to spread their message and hence many want to stop him getting any publicity. I haven't watched QT in months but am looking forward to this.
Don’t they have anything new to say?
> > @viewcode said:
> > About time
> >
> > https://twitter.com/bbcquestiontime/status/1126183560036134912
> >
> >
> >
> > Because he's been on it so rarely in the past?
>
> https://order-order.com/2019/05/03/question-times-top-spots-10-0-remainers/
Well if you’re mad enough to go back to the inception of Question Time... All you’re proving is that there was a broad consensus for many years across all politicians who were not unhinged that EU membership was a good thing.
> Anecdata, but the only European election material I've received so far has been from the Brexit Party. I'm in Scotland, if that makes any difference.
>
> Yet more small blood-sucking things to add to all the midges?
They haven’t so he isn’t. And, whilst he has his limits, within those limits he’s very good at it.
> Is Farage coming on the telly to apologise for the mess and misery that he has caused? Or is going to be pending more outage and easy solutions to complex problems?
He's coming on to cheat in the European elections I think.
> Nigel Evans bigging up the Brexit party !
It's almost as if the Tories have thrown in the towel as far as the Euro elections are concerned, and they'd rather get no votes than something like 13%.
> Is Farage coming on the telly to apologise for the mess and misery that he has caused? Or is going to be pending more outage and easy solutions to complex problems?
>
> Farage would be killed (politically) if other politicians delivered on the root causes of his appeal, rather than just paid lip service to them.
>
> They haven’t so he isn’t. And, whilst he has his limits, within those limits he’s very good at it.
The trick with these 'characters' is that their diagnosis of the problems/concerns is generally quite good, perhaps more acute than more conventional politicians. Spotting things that others miss.
Where it goes wrong is that their solutions are utterly catastrophic.
The challenge for other politicians is to recognise the problems, without legitimising the solutions.
No-one, to date, has pulled that off.
> > @nico67 said:
> > > @kinabalu said:
> > > I have never in my life voted anything but Labour. Why would I. But for these Euros, since they are essentially Ref2, have no meaning other than that, I am considering the Lib Dems as the best way to boost Remain and counter the unwelcome Farage movement. I may not be able to do it, my hand might not play ball when I get in there, but that somebody like me has an 'aspiration' to vote yellow rather than red speaks volumes. So making the (possibly dubious) assumption that what is going on in my leftish head is also going on in many other leftish heads I would say that the Lib Dems have a decent shot at 2nd.
> >
> > Remainers have to send a message to Labour . They need to see lots of votes moving to pro EU parties . I understand it might be difficult ! But needs must .
>
> It will be tough. Perhaps you can come with me.
> 😊
I suppose the one thing that might throw a curveball into proceedings is what happens if the Tory Labour talks fail this week . What if Labour say they’ve exhausted everything but now need to support a second vote . Yes I know it’s unlikely but we live in strange times .
I think unless that happens Labour Remainers are left with no choice but to support other pro EU parties . I just don’t see what else we can do to send a strong message to Corbyn and co.
For someone like Farage, it’d start by not sneering at those who feel proudly British and that the political project of the EU threatens that identity and taking their concerns over an inability to control mass immigration seriously with direct levers.
As it happens, I felt May had squared that circle and we could have moved on but due to her political incompetence, stupidity of the ERG and the opportunism of the opposition we are not in that world.
That still doesn’t mean her strategic assessment wasn’t correct.
> > @Casino_Royale said:
> > Is Farage coming on the telly to apologise for the mess and misery that he has caused? Or is going to be pending more outage and easy solutions to complex problems?
> >
> > Farage would be killed (politically) if other politicians delivered on the root causes of his appeal, rather than just paid lip service to them.
> >
> > They haven’t so he isn’t. And, whilst he has his limits, within those limits he’s very good at it.
>
> The trick with these 'characters' is that their diagnosis of the problems/concerns is generally quite good, perhaps more acute than more conventional politicians. Spotting things that others miss.
>
> Where it goes wrong is that their solutions are utterly catastrophic.
>
> The challenge for other politicians is to recognise the problems, without legitimising the solutions.
>
> No-one, to date, has pulled that off.
Agreed, also they need to come up with solutions, even partial solutions that make some progress and sell those ideas.
> > @tlg86 said:
> > > @viewcode said:
> > > About time
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/bbcquestiontime/status/1126183560036134912
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Because he's been on it so rarely in the past?
> >
> > https://order-order.com/2019/05/03/question-times-top-spots-10-0-remainers/
>
> Well if you’re mad enough to go back to the inception of Question Time... All you’re proving is that there was a broad consensus for many years across all politicians who were not unhinged that EU membership was a good thing.
To be slightly serious about this, it’s interesting that half that list are Lib Dems. I guess, like Ukip, they didn’t have as many household names so the same ones come on more often than Tory and Labour individuals.
I don’t have the stats to back this up, but I reckon the government sends on lower ranked ministers than in the good old days which is a shame.
> Polls close in just over an hour in South Africa.
>
>
>
> https://www.news24.com/Elections/
>
> Least surprising election result in the world
That's true but it'll be interesting to see what share of the vote the ANC get. One opinion poll had them as low as 49%.
> On the royal baby, I’m sure the royal family are (rightfully) delighted but I have lost patience with so many in the commentariat using it to make the same old point about how wonderful modern-day multi-racial Britain is over the last few days, and make themselves look wholly right-on at the same time.
>
> Don’t they have anything new to say?
I should imagine that the new baby as it grows up is going to feel like an outsider. Not by his mother or even his father but the wheels of change are very slow to turn in such a conservative establishment. I welcome the child to the world but I suspect the child's life will be blighted by identity problems. Hopefully, I will be proved wrong but as we saw with Diana, if you don't fit in you will experience a lifetime of grief...
> > @Jonathan said:
>
> > Is Farage coming on the telly to apologise for the mess and misery that he has caused? Or is going to be pending more outage and easy solutions to complex problems?
>
>
>
> He's coming on to cheat in the European elections I think.
>
> How?
Dark money, russian bots, red buses that sort of thing.