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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Given The Brexit party looks almost a certainty for the Euros

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  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,739
    Cyclefree said:

    > @Omnium said:

    > > @Cyclefree said:

    > > Princess Anne, still working her socks off

    >

    > No doubt a heavy schedule, hardly taxing work though, and she does enjoy the odd benefit or two.

    >

    >



    Of course. But she's the most hardworking of all the royals, puts those younger than her to shame and seems to have some concept that, with all the privilege, comes duty and obligation. I am not at all sure that the younger ones really understand that and that it means doing lots of unglamorous stuff in unglamorous places day in day out.

    Wot, like serving in combat air support in a war zone?

    If there is a Royal who shirks the easy life, it is Harry.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,722

    > @geoffw said:

    > @noneoftheabove

    > Blockquotes too messed up to reply.

    > The BBC4 documentary on Brexit from an EU viewpoint has my full attention.

    >

    > p.s. Verhofstadt is inadvertently quite funny.



    If he was just a (Belgian) bloke down the pub I reckon he'd be quite fun.



    But, when you get him onto his pet subject - European federalism, which unfortunately is his day job - he comes across as the dogmatic foam-flecked ideologue he really is.

    That's funny, at least to me.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,686
    edited May 2019
    I tell you what would be a fun market.

    What the winning party's share of the vote will be.

    Edit - For both the Euros and the Peterborough by election.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,495
    > @geoffw said:
    > @noneoftheabove
    > Blockquotes too messed up to reply.
    > The BBC4 documentary on Brexit from an EU viewpoint has my full attention.

    Why does he keep referring to himself in the third person?

    He just seems a slightly more lucid inverse Bill Cash or Steve Baker to me.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    > @YBarddCwsc said:
    > > @The_Taxman said:
    > >
    > > His business skills are not so good though:
    > >
    > > https://www.peterboroughtoday.co.uk/news/people/peterborough-s-secret-millionaire-s-food-stores-chain-goes-into-administration-1-7455559
    >
    > It is not entirely clear from that report what the whole story is & whether Green is to blame.
    >
    > But, you are right it may have the capacity to damage him.

    Well hundreds of people lost their jobs according to the article. Maybe not in Peterborough but the damage could stick if his opponents are careful in the way they exploit it. I would not have someone with such an association of a fresh business failure as a candidate.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,005
    edited May 2019
    > @geoffw said:
    > @noneoftheabove
    > Blockquotes too messed up to reply.
    > The BBC4 documentary on Brexit from an EU viewpoint has my full attention.
    >
    > p.s. Verhofstadt is inadvertently quite funny.

    I think he's quite capable of being advertently funny.

    He also has a very pretty Aston Martin which trumps IDS's menopausal wooden wonder by some way.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,686

    > @geoffw said:

    > @noneoftheabove

    > Blockquotes too messed up to reply.

    > The BBC4 documentary on Brexit from an EU viewpoint has my full attention.

    >

    > p.s. Verhofstadt is inadvertently quite funny.



    I think he's quite capable of being advertently funny.



    He also has a very pretty Aston Martin which trumps IDS menopausal wooden wonder by some way.

    Can you not talk about IDS's wood.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Labour have always underperformed in Euro elections. I think there's a good chance that Remain voters will abandon Labour to vote for an alternative - particularly in the absence of FPTP.

    However, with the Remain vote split many ways I think this opens the possibility for the Tories to sneak second place with a vote share in the mid-teens. Something like this is quite credible (for GB).
    Brexit - 30%
    Conservative - 16%
    Labour - 15%
    Lib Dem - 12%
    Green - 10%
    Change UK - 5%
    UKIP - 4%
    SNP/PC - 4%
    Others - 4%
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    > @The_Taxman said:
    >
    >
    Well hundreds of people lost their jobs according to the article. Maybe not in Peterborough but the damage could stick if his opponents are careful in the way they exploit it. I would not have someone with such an association of a fresh business failure as a candidate.

    That is how we end up with fresh-faced cohorts who have done PPE at Oxford & nothing else running the country.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,878
    A question (or some ramblings) for all on PB this evening.
    We’re two weeks away from the EU Parliamentary elections, which doesn’t fill me with joy. An elected body with only limited powers in the EU. To add to which, our returned MEPs, in theory, should only serve about four months before they are redundant. It wouldn’t be unreasonable to say that these elections could be the most pointless election I’ve ever partaken in.

    So, who do I vote for?

    I’m pretty much a Lib Dem, and tend to vote for them locally (and did last week) and often nationally but I’m also a Leaver and stopped supporting them after 2016. I don’t support No Deal (so that rules out the Brexit Party and UKIP nutters), and I don’t support Remain (so that rules out LD, Green and ChUK). I’m in England, so that also rules out any nationalist party. I probably would’ve preferred an EEA/EFTA arrangement (actually rejoining EFTA) but that ship appears to have sailed.

    My family, on all sides (wife and my own) being good Merseyside lot, are ‘Donkey with Red Rosette’ voters. They vote Labour because they vote Labour. But I don’t, and haven’t since 1997 and regretted it instantly after I did. I don’t want to vote Labour. I’ve no idea what they stand for on Brexit, and to be fair, I doubt they know either.

    I broadly support the Deal, see it as a way forward and all things can be negotiated later once we are out the EU. It should be a no brainer, I should vote Conservative in two weeks time.

    But on the other hand, I see the current state of that party, and of the government. A leader with an ear so tin you could give it as a 10th wedding anniversary present. Wings of the party at war with each other, the payroll vote and any other group they can find. Nutters from Dominic Grieve to Mark Francois. A tired, clapped out party nine years in government that can’t sort anything out.

    So, who do I vote for?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    > @Theuniondivvie said:
    > > @geoffw said:
    > > @noneoftheabove
    > > Blockquotes too messed up to reply.
    > > The BBC4 documentary on Brexit from an EU viewpoint has my full attention.
    > >
    > > p.s. Verhofstadt is inadvertently quite funny.
    >
    > I think he's quite capable of being advertently funny.
    >
    > He also has a very pretty Aston Martin which trumps IDS's menopausal wooden wonder by some way.

    He can afford that Aston Martin on what we help pay him.....
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,495
    > @Theuniondivvie said:
    > > @geoffw said:
    > > @noneoftheabove
    > > Blockquotes too messed up to reply.
    > > The BBC4 documentary on Brexit from an EU viewpoint has my full attention.
    > >
    > > p.s. Verhofstadt is inadvertently quite funny.
    >
    > I think he's quite capable of being advertently funny.
    >
    > He also has a very pretty Aston Martin which trumps IDS's menopausal wooden wonder by some way.

    And, no doubt, if it were the other way round then it'd be Verhofstadt's pretty Morgan that we'd only have eyes for rather than IDS's fuddy duddy Aston Martin.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    > @YBarddCwsc said:
    > > @The_Taxman said:
    > >
    > >
    > Well hundreds of people lost their jobs according to the article. Maybe not in Peterborough but the damage could stick if his opponents are careful in the way they exploit it. I would not have someone with such an association of a fresh business failure as a candidate.
    >
    > That is how we end up with fresh-faced cohorts who have done PPE at Oxford & nothing else running the country.
    >
    >

    I am not disputing your comments about elite educated people as in my experience those who have not benefited from such privilege know how to fight for things.

    The point here is the man in question is being sold as a successful business person yet hundreds of people have lost their jobs in a company he is associated with fairly recently.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Sigh. Parliament still not even considering a business case for the palace restoration project until 2021. Not leaving the building until at least 2025 (and probably some years after). Will the damn place still be there by then?

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-48199355
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    Spurs so NEARLY get the third!
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038
    > @TheValiant said:
    > A question (or some ramblings) for all on PB this evening.
    > We’re two weeks away from the EU Parliamentary elections, which doesn’t fill me with joy. An elected body with only limited powers in the EU. To add to which, our returned MEPs, in theory, should only serve about four months before they are redundant. It wouldn’t be unreasonable to say that these elections could be the most pointless election I’ve ever partaken in.
    >
    > So, who do I vote for?
    >
    > I’m pretty much a Lib Dem, and tend to vote for them locally (and did last week) and often nationally but I’m also a Leaver and stopped supporting them after 2016. I don’t support No Deal (so that rules out the Brexit Party and UKIP nutters), and I don’t support Remain (so that rules out LD, Green and ChUK). I’m in England, so that also rules out any nationalist party. I probably would’ve preferred an EEA/EFTA arrangement (actually rejoining EFTA) but that ship appears to have sailed.
    >
    > My family, on all sides (wife and my own) being good Merseyside lot, are ‘Donkey with Red Rosette’ voters. They vote Labour because they vote Labour. But I don’t, and haven’t since 1997 and regretted it instantly after I did. I don’t want to vote Labour. I’ve no idea what they stand for on Brexit, and to be fair, I doubt they know either.
    >
    > I broadly support the Deal, see it as a way forward and all things can be negotiated later once we are out the EU. It should be a no brainer, I should vote Conservative in two weeks time.
    >
    > But on the other hand, I see the current state of that party, and of the government. A leader with an ear so tin you could give it as a 10th wedding anniversary present. Wings of the party at war with each other, the payroll vote and any other group they can find. Nutters from Dominic Grieve to Mark Francois. A tired, clapped out party nine years in government that can’t sort anything out.
    >
    > So, who do I vote for?

    Don't be defined by Brexit. Vote for the party closest to you across all issues, not just one.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    > @The_Taxman said:
    > > @YBarddCwsc said:
    > > > @The_Taxman said:
    > > >
    > > >
    > > Well hundreds of people lost their jobs according to the article. Maybe not in Peterborough but the damage could stick if his opponents are careful in the way they exploit it. I would not have someone with such an association of a fresh business failure as a candidate.
    > >
    > > That is how we end up with fresh-faced cohorts who have done PPE at Oxford & nothing else running the country.
    > >
    > >
    >
    > I am not disputing your comments about elite educated people as in my experience those who have not benefited from such privilege know how to fight for things.
    >
    > The point here is the man in question is being sold as a successful business person yet hundreds of people have lost their jobs in a company he is associated with fairly recently.

    Microsoft bought Nokias mobile business, the result was mass redundancies, so by your theory Bill Gates is a crap business person?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,686
    NEW THREAD
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    > @TheValiant said:
    > A question (or some ramblings) for all on PB this evening.
    > We’re two weeks away from the EU Parliamentary elections, which doesn’t fill me with joy. An elected body with only limited powers in the EU. To add to which, our returned MEPs, in theory, should only serve about four months before they are redundant. It wouldn’t be unreasonable to say that these elections could be the most pointless election I’ve ever partaken in.
    >
    > So, who do I vote for?
    >
    > I’m pretty much a Lib Dem, and tend to vote for them locally (and did last week) and often nationally but I’m also a Leaver and stopped supporting them after 2016. I don’t support No Deal (so that rules out the Brexit Party and UKIP nutters), and I don’t support Remain (so that rules out LD, Green and ChUK). I’m in England, so that also rules out any nationalist party. I probably would’ve preferred an EEA/EFTA arrangement (actually rejoining EFTA) but that ship appears to have sailed.
    >
    > My family, on all sides (wife and my own) being good Merseyside lot, are ‘Donkey with Red Rosette’ voters. They vote Labour because they vote Labour. But I don’t, and haven’t since 1997 and regretted it instantly after I did. I don’t want to vote Labour. I’ve no idea what they stand for on Brexit, and to be fair, I doubt they know either.
    >
    > I broadly support the Deal, see it as a way forward and all things can be negotiated later once we are out the EU. It should be a no brainer, I should vote Conservative in two weeks time.
    >
    > But on the other hand, I see the current state of that party, and of the government. A leader with an ear so tin you could give it as a 10th wedding anniversary present. Wings of the party at war with each other, the payroll vote and any other group they can find. Nutters from Dominic Grieve to Mark Francois. A tired, clapped out party nine years in government that can’t sort anything out.
    >
    > So, who do I vote for?

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------
    While SandyRentool's advice to consider non-Brexit issues is, of course, sound, if on the Brexit issue you are broadly supportive of the (current) formal Tory position, then a vote for them need not be taken as endorsement of their overall rank incompetence. Almost everyone is going to interpret the EP election proportions as signifiying support for the underlying Brexit position of the respective parties, so we all may as well just pick on that basis as well.

    If not on Brexit position then there are two options as I see it. Either vote to punish a specific party most deserving of ire or try to vote for the most hilarious outcome.

    I'm still minded to vote CUK just to encourage new parties. Plus it would be very funny if they came above either the Greens or LDs.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,243
    ydoethur said:

    > @Jonathan said:

    > Does anyone have an historical example where a populist like Farage has been discredited and disarmed BEFORE they have done tremendous harm to their country?

    >

    >



    Pim Fortuyn



    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pim_Fortuyn

    Barry Goldwater?
    Goldwater left a legacy... of tremendous harm.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Moura. Bloody hell.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,005
    > @MarqueeMark said:
    > > @Theuniondivvie said:
    > > > @geoffw said:
    > > > @noneoftheabove
    > > > Blockquotes too messed up to reply.
    > > > The BBC4 documentary on Brexit from an EU viewpoint has my full attention.
    > > >
    > > > p.s. Verhofstadt is inadvertently quite funny.
    > >
    > > I think he's quite capable of being advertently funny.
    > >
    > > He also has a very pretty Aston Martin which trumps IDS's menopausal wooden wonder by some way.
    >
    > He can afford that Aston Martin on what we help pay him.....

    Perhaps we should come to some arrangement where you continue to help pay for IDS's Morgan and I continue to help pay for Guy's AM. I'm sure if we both think really, really hard we can come up with something...
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    What odds would you have got on an all-English final yesterday lunchtime?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,850
    edited May 2019
    > @TheValiant said:
    > A question (or some ramblings) for all on PB this evening.
    > We’re two weeks away from the EU Parliamentary elections, which doesn’t fill me with joy. An elected body with only limited powers in the EU. To add to which, our returned MEPs, in theory, should only serve about four months before they are redundant. It wouldn’t be unreasonable to say that these elections could be the most pointless election I’ve ever partaken in.
    >
    > So, who do I vote for?
    >
    > I’m pretty much a Lib Dem, and tend to vote for them locally (and did last week) and often nationally but I’m also a Leaver and stopped supporting them after 2016. I don’t support No Deal (so that rules out the Brexit Party and UKIP nutters), and I don’t support Remain (so that rules out LD, Green and ChUK). I’m in England, so that also rules out any nationalist party. I probably would’ve preferred an EEA/EFTA arrangement (actually rejoining EFTA) but that ship appears to have sailed.
    >
    > My family, on all sides (wife and my own) being good Merseyside lot, are ‘Donkey with Red Rosette’ voters. They vote Labour because they vote Labour. But I don’t, and haven’t since 1997 and regretted it instantly after I did. I don’t want to vote Labour. I’ve no idea what they stand for on Brexit, and to be fair, I doubt they know either.
    >
    > I broadly support the Deal, see it as a way forward and all things can be negotiated later once we are out the EU. It should be a no brainer, I should vote Conservative in two weeks time.
    >
    > But on the other hand, I see the current state of that party, and of the government. A leader with an ear so tin you could give it as a 10th wedding anniversary present. Wings of the party at war with each other, the payroll vote and any other group they can find. Nutters from Dominic Grieve to Mark Francois. A tired, clapped out party nine years in government that can’t sort anything out.
    >
    > So, who do I vote for?

    I am not a leaver but some of my views are not dissimilar and considering Green, Libdem and Tories, leaning Green mainly as think it will improve other parties policies on the environment, whereas any Brexit related vote wont have an impact as people are too entrenched on their views already.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    > @AlastairMeeks said:
    > What odds would you have got on an all-English final yesterday lunchtime?

    66/1 or so
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    > @Omnium said:

    > > @Cyclefree said:

    > > Princess Anne, still working her socks off

    >

    > No doubt a heavy schedule, hardly taxing work though, and she does enjoy the odd benefit or two.

    >

    >



    Of course. But she's the most hardworking of all the royals, puts those younger than her to shame and seems to have some concept that, with all the privilege, comes duty and obligation. I am not at all sure that the younger ones really understand that and that it means doing lots of unglamorous stuff in unglamorous places day in day out.

    Wot, like serving in combat air support in a war zone?

    If there is a Royal who shirks the easy life, it is Harry.
    That was his job and, fair play to him, he did it seriously. He deserves credit for Invictus and his foreign trips. But in the last year, as a working Royal, he has visited places outside London 4 times, I think: Nottingham, Cardiff, Edinburgh and Northern Ireland. That’s pathetic. Someone in their offices needs a kick up the arse.

    The Cambridges too need to up their game.

    They come across as a bit lazy, living a privileged, extremely comfortable life, with lots of glamour. But a bit disinclined to get out of their comfort zone and do something for unfashionable groups and parts of the country. That could come and bite them on the arse in future.

    It’s just a perception but in the Royal game perceptions matter.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Does "cannot support your legislative program" = resigning the whip?
This discussion has been closed.