> @Barnesian said: > > @Cyclefree said: > > > @Theuniondivvie said: > > > Whatsa Boris gonna do, or is duplicitous, old shagger priced in? > > > > > One thing I like about Corbyn is that he does not use his wife as some sort of political wallpaper. > > > > If a wife wants to go into politics, fine. If not, leave her out of it. > > > > Otherwise it just comes across as a sort of creepy "I know I'm a political geek. And most normal women would run a mile. But, hey, I've managed to have sex. And I've managed to find someone to have sex with more than once." Yuk. > > _________________________________________________________________ > > When I see a married couple I generally don't think about the sex. I usually think about the partnership and the mutual support. > > When I see Theresa and Philip May, I think what do they talk about; how does he support her; does he advise her etc. I must certainly don't think about the sex! Yuk.
Sex is best left to the under 45s. Not appropriate after that. Armchair and a good book.
> @IanB2 said: > > @Scott_P said: > > https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1125072186040102914 > > " Scotland moved twelve years ago to using proportional representation for its local elections, a system which means that councils reflect the votes cast far better than some examples which have been presented in this piece. The Welsh Government is considering giving councils the right to choose their electoral system in the future, and one of these days – perhaps after the government changes next – England is going to follow suit. This piece has mentioned a number of local administrations which over the last four years or more have been complacent, poorly-performing, disrespected, decaying, or worse; and in many of those cases its England’s first-past-the-post electoral system which keeps them there, with council majorities which their vote shares simply don’t warrant. This year we’ve seen some violent voter reactions to some administrations like that; it may have been first-past-the-post that got rid of some of those bad apples, but it was also first-past-the-post that put them there with lopsided, unwarranted majorities in the first place. As in so many things, prevention may be better than cure."
I completely agree. It's good that a lot of Conservative authorities now have some serious opposition, but a future round of local elections could see them swing back to being one-party councils.
> @rpjs said: > > @Pulpstar said: > > > @TheScreamingEagles said: > > > https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1125748194175008768 > > > > > > > > > > > > If we do end up remaining we should put statues of Mark Francois, Steve Baker, and other luminaries of the ERG. > > > > "Where do you want your statues, ERG ?" > > It'd be even more hilarious if the EU erected such outside the Berlaymont.
Is that the face-saving provision?
Corbyn gives up the second referendum, May claims the win?
> @Peter_the_Punter said: > > @malcolmg said: > > > @malcolmg said: > > > > > There are some pretty brutal comments about Rory below but they're probably realistic. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Note, though, that Mike Smithson was relating this not to some general theory about how telegenic he might be in a General Election but specifically to the next Tory leader market. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I'm not sure what the Conservative MPs and membership will do next. Does anyone? They seem to be in a fey mood and on a mission to self-destruct. In which case, Rory probably won't be on the ticket. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Someone mentioned who is likeable to work with. Believe it or not, Michael Gove is loved in the Civil Service. He's very hard working, intelligent and he actually listens. They really like him. To which we can add, that he did this country the most fantastic service of all in the long history of the British Isles ... when he knifed Boris. > > > > > > > > > > Unfortunately he forgot to knife himself afterwards > > > > > > > > Gove is liked in DEFRA, he was not like at Justice > > > > Personally I dislike the lying toerag. > > The problem for those of us watching from the sidelines is his treacherous and destructive behaviour during the Leadership contest. It involved a sudden volte face which appeared to be driven by the Daily Mail's agenda, and one has to suspect his wife played a prominent role in this. > > Any development which caused the DM to have a greater influence in our public life would be regrettable, so Gove therefore has to be a bit of a no-no as a future PM - betting interests notwithstanding of course.
I have never been able to understand why Boris/Gove blew up like that.
My best guess is that it was a bit like Smith/Kinnock back in the day; a sudden realisation that the #1 whose ride the #2 had attached to was a dead loss.
Not long now until the Government makes itself even more popular with the Wanking Database and Fap Licences. That'll go down well (with exhibitionists and blackmail enthusiasts).
I hope the Electoral Commission are keep a very close eye on the time that broadcasters give to this fellah during the eu election broadcasting rules period.
I hope the Electoral Commission are keep a very close eye on the time that broadcasters give to this fellah during the eu election broadcasting rules period.
Giving more air time to the Tories and Labour might increase his share still further. I don’t suppose UKIP is going to get the lion’s share of coverage.
I hope the Electoral Commission are keep a very close eye on the time that broadcasters give to this fellah during the eu election broadcasting rules period.
Giving more air time to the Tories and Labour might increase his share still further. I don’t suppose UKIP is going to get the lion’s share of coverage.
May, Corbyn, Cable.
I can't think of a bunch more likely to drive people towards TBP.
> @Foxy said: > Waits for later announcement. > > > > https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1125705747621236736 > > > > > > Perhaps Mr Jackson might stand if thousands of his ex constituents plead for him to run, but it looks as if he might not. > > I thought an annunziament about the BP candidate was imminent? > > Unity Rees-Mogg as the candidate? Oh my word. > > That said Mike's on holiday during the Peterborough by election so it'll be an easy Labour hold. > > FWIW > > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1125762817078984709 > > > > If BP splits the frothers a joint LD/Green candidate could win
The Brexit Party could win and Labour fall to third on those figures.
Peterborough voted 60% Leave and neither the Tories nor Labour got even a third of the votes in the area in the local elections
On the issue of Councils with large majorities, I live in Newham where all 60 Councillors are Labour. last year, the Party won just over two thirds of the vote across the Borough.
On a proportional system, you can't deny Labour a majority but instead of 60 Councillors, they'd have 40. Conservatives would have 10, the LDs 4, Greens 4 and the Christian People's Party 2. Labour would still dominate the politics of the Borough but the opposition votes would not just be counted but count.
Why should non-Labour votes in Newham be counted but not count? That's the failure of FPTP.
> @Benpointer said: > Waits for later announcement. > > > > https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1125705747621236736 > > > > > > Perhaps Mr Jackson might stand if thousands of his ex constituents plead for him to run, but it looks as if he might not. > > I thought an annunziament about the BP candidate was imminent? > > Unity Rees-Mogg as the candidate? Oh my word. > > That said Mike's on holiday during the Peterborough by election so it'll be an easy Labour hold. > > FWIW > > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1125762817078984709 > > > > If BP splits the frothers a joint LD/Green candidate could win > > Awaits HYUFD prediction of 2024 POTUS election based on these results... > > But more seriously, both LDs and Greens have announced candidates - are they talking about one party stepping down to back the other?
Apparently Labour was 4% ahead in the wards which make up the parliamentary seat.
On a related, there's not much time for new groupings and coalitions to be formed before the new councils meet for the first time. Guildford BC has its AGM tomorrow at noon and with the Conservatives comprehensively trounced, the question for me is whether the R4GV and GGG groups will form a coalition with the LDs to take over the Council or try to govern as a minority.
So much of what happened in Surrey comes back to housing, planning and local environment issues.
> @stodge said: > On a related, there's not much time for new groupings and coalitions to be formed before the new councils meet for the first time. Guildford BC has its AGM tomorrow at noon and with the Conservatives comprehensively trounced, the question for me is whether the R4GV and GGG groups will form a coalition with the LDs to take over the Council or try to govern as a minority. > > So much of what happened in Surrey comes back to housing, planning and local environment issues.
Expect a lot more Nimbyism in Guildford then if that coalition of LDs and Residents and Independents takes control
> @HYUFD said: > > @Foxy said: > > Waits for later announcement. > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1125705747621236736 > > > > > > > > > > > > Perhaps Mr Jackson might stand if thousands of his ex constituents plead for him to run, but it looks as if he might not. > > > > I thought an annunziament about the BP candidate was imminent? > > > > Unity Rees-Mogg as the candidate? Oh my word. > > > > That said Mike's on holiday during the Peterborough by election so it'll be an easy Labour hold. > > > > FWIW > > > > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1125762817078984709 > > > > > > > > If BP splits the frothers a joint LD/Green candidate could win > > The Brexit Party could win and Labour fall to third on those figures. > > Peterborough voted 60% Leave and neither the Tories nor Labour got even a third of the votes in the area in the local elections
Is that the Council or the constituency figures though? The two are not the same. The constituency is much less strongly Tory, as roughly 40% of the Council area is in deep blue NW Cambs.
Prime Minister May's serving of lukewarm quiche to the Tory faithful has guaranteed their loyalty! Her French cocktail Maginot Lime will repel all attempts to assault the invincible bastion of Conservative heartlands!
> @dixiedean said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @Foxy said: > > > Waits for later announcement. > > > > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1125705747621236736 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Perhaps Mr Jackson might stand if thousands of his ex constituents plead for him to run, but it looks as if he might not. > > > > > > I thought an annunziament about the BP candidate was imminent? > > > > > > Unity Rees-Mogg as the candidate? Oh my word. > > > > > > That said Mike's on holiday during the Peterborough by election so it'll be an easy Labour hold. > > > > > > FWIW > > > > > > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1125762817078984709 > > > > > > > > > > > > If BP splits the frothers a joint LD/Green candidate could win > > > > The Brexit Party could win and Labour fall to third on those figures. > > > > Peterborough voted 60% Leave and neither the Tories nor Labour got even a third of the votes in the area in the local elections > > Is that the Council or the constituency figures though? The two are not the same. The constituency is much less strongly Tory, as roughly 40% of the Council area is in deep blue NW Cambs.
I cannot see either the Tories or Labour beating the Brexit Party when neither could even get over 33% in the local elections (even if a minority of Peterborough council includes NW Cambridgeshire). If the Brexit Party win the European elections and we are still in the EU I expect momentum alone will see the Brexit Party win the Peterborough by election, Leavers will flock to them with Remainers dividing up amongst other parties
> @HYUFD said: > > @stodge said: > > On a related, there's not much time for new groupings and coalitions to be formed before the new councils meet for the first time. Guildford BC has its AGM tomorrow at noon and with the Conservatives comprehensively trounced, the question for me is whether the R4GV and GGG groups will form a coalition with the LDs to take over the Council or try to govern as a minority. > > > > So much of what happened in Surrey comes back to housing, planning and local environment issues. > > Expect a lot more Nimbyism in Guildford then if that coalition of LDs and Residents and Independents takes control
I don't know about Guildford, but I expect quite a lot of the newly elected independents and residents across the country will end up drifting into the Conservative Party.
The Brexit Party could win and Labour fall to third on those figures.
> Peterborough voted 60% Leave and neither the Tories nor Labour got even a third of the votes in the area in the local elections
Is that the Council or the constituency figures though? The two are not the same. The constituency is much less strongly Tory, as roughly 40% of the Council area is in deep blue NW Cambs.
> > If BP splits the frothers a joint LD/Green candidate could win
>
> The Brexit Party could win and Labour fall to third on those figures.
>
> Peterborough voted 60% Leave and neither the Tories nor Labour got even a third of the votes in the area in the local elections
Is that the Council or the constituency figures though? The two are not the same. The constituency is much less strongly Tory, as roughly 40% of the Council area is in deep blue NW Cambs.
If TBP were anywhere close to winning the Peterborough constituency at target #203 we'd be in complete meltdown territory. And we're nowhere near that, yet.
> @brokenwheel said: > The Brexit Party could win and Labour fall to third on those figures. > > > Peterborough voted 60% Leave and neither the Tories nor Labour got even a third of the votes in the area in the local elections > > Is that the Council or the constituency figures though? The two are not the same. The constituency is much less strongly Tory, as roughly 40% of the Council area is in deep blue NW Cambs. > > As I tried to explain to rcs1000, > > https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1123919300564258816 > > > If TBP were anywhere close to winning the Peterborough constituency at target #203 we'd be in complete meltdown territory. And we're nowhere near that, yet.
In a by election and with all the momentum of winning the EU Parliament elections it is possible the Brexit Party will win it and hopefully that will frighten the life out of enough Labour MPs from Leave seats like Peterborough (as well as Tory MPs in Leave seats) to finally get the Withdrawal Agreement passed
Why are the Twitter twats still playing along with the Farage teasing over MP candidates?
If the Brexit Party were serious about winning the seat they would have a candidate already in place and campaigning. They clearly are just stringing people along.
Farage does not give a feck as he likes the attention more than sharing it, and prefers being an MEP to an MP.
> @Sean_F said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @stodge said: > > > On a related, there's not much time for new groupings and coalitions to be formed before the new councils meet for the first time. Guildford BC has its AGM tomorrow at noon and with the Conservatives comprehensively trounced, the question for me is whether the R4GV and GGG groups will form a coalition with the LDs to take over the Council or try to govern as a minority. > > > > > > So much of what happened in Surrey comes back to housing, planning and local environment issues. > > > > Expect a lot more Nimbyism in Guildford then if that coalition of LDs and Residents and Independents takes control > > I don't know about Guildford, but I expect quite a lot of the newly elected independents and residents across the country will end up drifting into the Conservative Party.
They may vote Tory at general election level at local level these groups have been formed mainly to stop any development in their area and they have no intention of doing any pacts with Tories to enable that
Sky News reporting 2 Tory MEP candidates in the European Parliament elections will not even vote for themselves but have privately said they will vote for the Brexit Party
Seriously if Rory the Tory becomes Prime Minister I'm a Dutchman. This is just getting silly. Does anyone think to ask who appointed him governor of a Province in Iraq?
I'm sure Iraq has suddenly become a meritocracy and the reach of Eton and Oxford hasn't stretched that far but even if he was chosen on merit in a Party of extreme lightweights he must be the lightest.
> @Roger said: > Seriously if Rory the Tory becomes Prime Minister I'm a Dutchman. This is just getting silly. Does anyone think to ask who appointed him governor of a Province in Iraq? > > I'm sure Iraq has suddenly become a meritocracy and the reach of Eton and Oxford hasn't stretched that far but even if he was chosen on merit in a Party of extreme lightweights he must be the lightest.
Rory Stewart read history at Balliol, served in the military and diplomatic service and taught at Harvard and has written several books. He may be many things but lightweight he is not!
> @Sean_F said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @stodge said: > > > On a related, there's not much time for new groupings and coalitions to be formed before the new councils meet for the first time. Guildford BC has its AGM tomorrow at noon and with the Conservatives comprehensively trounced, the question for me is whether the R4GV and GGG groups will form a coalition with the LDs to take over the Council or try to govern as a minority. > > > > > > So much of what happened in Surrey comes back to housing, planning and local environment issues. > > > > Expect a lot more Nimbyism in Guildford then if that coalition of LDs and Residents and Independents takes control > > I don't know about Guildford, but I expect quite a lot of the newly elected independents and residents across the country will end up drifting into the Conservative Party.
I believe there will be a legal challenge to the local plan in Guildford.
I don't really know what the difference is between the R4GV and GGG. I have been told the GGG have more nimby tendencies, but I have no idea if that is true.
I do know that the R4GV is a broad church of political views, again I do not know if that is reflected in those elected though. I do know that the original defectors who formed the group were made up of 2 Conservatives and 1 Liberal.
I would hope the LDs and R4GV form an administration (with or without GGG).
There was obviously some cooperation between R4GV, LD and GGG, but only some. They were also fighting one another in some wards. Holy Trinity for instance was a tight fight between R4GV and LDs (it was previously a Con stronghold.
I get the feeling that the Indies thought the LDs were feeble in their opposition to the local plan, whereas the LDs I think knew that an appalling local plan was better than a free for all so were strategic in what they did.
It was interesting that the LDs did not challenge the LD defector to R4GV. I think there is mutual respect there.
One of the more bizarre elements and a loss to the council is the R4GV candidate in Effingham. He was a very good candidate taking on a strong LD seat and he failed to win it. When the Ripley by election took place he was the Tory candidate (selected by Mole Valley Conservatives and anti the Guildford Tories). He got slaughtered because all the voters could see was a Tory. They could not distinguish between which Association had picked him. Both he and the LD victor were of very like minds, both defected to the R4GV and both are very knowledgable and strong campaigners against the local plan. Sadly he did not have an opportunity to fight as a R4GV in a seat in his area that was winable and not already held by R4GV.
Just to emphasis again that the issues of Guildford was not down to nimbyism (alone). It was the behaviour of the Executive.
> @Artist said: > Labour and the Tories have been campaigning in Peterborough for months, I don't think the Brexit Party will get anywhere near.
Peterborough voted 60% Leave and Farage is holding a big rally in Peterborough this week.
The by election also comes less than a fortnight after the Brexit Party likely win the European Parliament elections giving them huge publicity and momentum ahead of the by election
> @HYUFD said: > > @Roger said: > > Seriously if Rory the Tory becomes Prime Minister I'm a Dutchman. This is just getting silly. Does anyone think to ask who appointed him governor of a Province in Iraq? > > > > I'm sure Iraq has suddenly become a meritocracy and the reach of Eton and Oxford hasn't stretched that far but even if he was chosen on merit in a Party of extreme lightweights he must be the lightest. > > Rory Stewart read history at Balliol, served in the military and diplomatic service and taught at Harvard and has written several books. He may be many things but lightweight he is not!
You just listed pretty much the model CV of a political-class lightweight. The only thing it's missing is being a columnist for the Washington Post.
> @isam said: > Labour and the Tories have been campaigning in Peterborough for months, I don't think the Brexit Party will get anywhere near. > > But everybody hates Labour and Tories
23 seems generous for the Tories.
EDIT: By which I mean I think they have a better chance than that.
> @rottenborough said: > Farage just running the straight-up Trump playbook now. He's not even pretending anymore. > > He'll be demanding a wall shortly.
Ghastly isn't it.
The question is, how big is our basket of deplorables?
It's big, obviously, but is it big enough to sweep Nigel into the purple?
> @stodge said: > On a related, there's not much time for new groupings and coalitions to be formed before the new councils meet for the first time. Guildford BC has its AGM tomorrow at noon and with the Conservatives comprehensively trounced, the question for me is whether the R4GV and GGG groups will form a coalition with the LDs to take over the Council or try to govern as a minority. > > So much of what happened in Surrey comes back to housing, planning and local environment issues.
Yes, and specifically the Local Plans in Guildford, Waverley and Tandridge where the Conservatives were massacred (compounding the already hugely damaging Brexit effect common to all 11 Councils). My guess - no inside knowledge - that a coalition between the LibDems and assorted RAs will take control of all three Councils in addition to Elmbridge. I suspect the Conservative might also forfeit Woking too.
> @Stereotomy said: > > @isam said: > > Labour and the Tories have been campaigning in Peterborough for months, I don't think the Brexit Party will get anywhere near. > > > > But everybody hates Labour and Tories > > 23 seems generous for the Tories. > > EDIT: By which I mean I think they have a better chance than that.
> @JohnO said: > > @stodge said: > > On a related, there's not much time for new groupings and coalitions to be formed before the new councils meet for the first time. Guildford BC has its AGM tomorrow at noon and with the Conservatives comprehensively trounced, the question for me is whether the R4GV and GGG groups will form a coalition with the LDs to take over the Council or try to govern as a minority. > > > > So much of what happened in Surrey comes back to housing, planning and local environment issues. > > Yes, and specifically the Local Plans in Guildford, Waverley and Tandridge where the Conservatives were massacred (compounding the already hugely damaging Brexit effect common to all 11 Councils). My guess - no inside knowledge - that a coalition between the LibDems and assorted RAs will take control of all three Councils in addition to Elmbridge. I suspect the Conservative might also forfeit Woking too.
Brexit has produced a situation where the Tories gained 8 seats in Stoke last Thursday but were massacred in Surrey and Tunbridge Wells (exacerbated by NIMBY opposition to local plans)
> @kinabalu said: > > @isam said: > > > @isam said: > > > > So did I... on Labour!!!!!! > > > > (Lumped on=max bet allowed w Betfair SB, £33) > > Ah OK. I have to do Exchange. I am banned from SB. So I did BP at 2.5 and laid back at 1.2. Nice piece of business it was. > > How come you backed Labour when you are a big believer in the power of Nige and the BP? > > Was it the old 'emotional hedge', back what you do NOT want so that if it happens the profit dulls the pain?
Back value, not what you want, hope, or expect to happen. First rule. One often forgotten.
> @isam said: > > No, Richard Nabavi said it [Labour to win Euros] was a 1/2 shot!
Oops, sorry about that! Farage has managed to establish the brand extremely quickly, so the confusion with UKIP (which was behind my thinking) isn't going to happen. If it's any consolation, my lump-on was all of £50.
> No, Richard Nabavi said it [Labour to win Euros] was a 1/2 shot!
Oops, sorry about that! Farage has managed to establish the brand extremely quickly, so the confusion with UKIP (which was behind my thinking) isn't going to happen. If it's any consolation, my lump-on was all of £50.
No problemo, I thought the same issue could well arise. I wasn't digging you out, just answering the Q as to why I backed them
Comments
> > @Cyclefree said:
> > > @Theuniondivvie said:
> > > Whatsa Boris gonna do, or is duplicitous, old shagger priced in?
> > >
> > One thing I like about Corbyn is that he does not use his wife as some sort of political wallpaper.
> >
> > If a wife wants to go into politics, fine. If not, leave her out of it.
> >
> > Otherwise it just comes across as a sort of creepy "I know I'm a political geek. And most normal women would run a mile. But, hey, I've managed to have sex. And I've managed to find someone to have sex with more than once." Yuk.
>
> _________________________________________________________________
>
> When I see a married couple I generally don't think about the sex. I usually think about the partnership and the mutual support.
>
> When I see Theresa and Philip May, I think what do they talk about; how does he support her; does he advise her etc. I must certainly don't think about the sex! Yuk.
Sex is best left to the under 45s. Not appropriate after that. Armchair and a good book.
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1125072186040102914
>
> " Scotland moved twelve years ago to using proportional representation for its local elections, a system which means that councils reflect the votes cast far better than some examples which have been presented in this piece. The Welsh Government is considering giving councils the right to choose their electoral system in the future, and one of these days – perhaps after the government changes next – England is going to follow suit. This piece has mentioned a number of local administrations which over the last four years or more have been complacent, poorly-performing, disrespected, decaying, or worse; and in many of those cases its England’s first-past-the-post electoral system which keeps them there, with council majorities which their vote shares simply don’t warrant. This year we’ve seen some violent voter reactions to some administrations like that; it may have been first-past-the-post that got rid of some of those bad apples, but it was also first-past-the-post that put them there with lopsided, unwarranted majorities in the first place. As in so many things, prevention may be better than cure."
I completely agree. It's good that a lot of Conservative authorities now have some serious opposition, but a future round of local elections could see them swing back to being one-party councils.
> > @Pulpstar said:
> > > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > > https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1125748194175008768
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > If we do end up remaining we should put statues of Mark Francois, Steve Baker, and other luminaries of the ERG.
> >
> > "Where do you want your statues, ERG ?"
>
> It'd be even more hilarious if the EU erected such outside the Berlaymont.
Is that the face-saving provision?
Corbyn gives up the second referendum, May claims the win?
> > @malcolmg said:
> > > @malcolmg said:
> >
> > > There are some pretty brutal comments about Rory below but they're probably realistic.
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Note, though, that Mike Smithson was relating this not to some general theory about how telegenic he might be in a General Election but specifically to the next Tory leader market.
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > I'm not sure what the Conservative MPs and membership will do next. Does anyone? They seem to be in a fey mood and on a mission to self-destruct. In which case, Rory probably won't be on the ticket.
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Someone mentioned who is likeable to work with. Believe it or not, Michael Gove is loved in the Civil Service. He's very hard working, intelligent and he actually listens. They really like him. To which we can add, that he did this country the most fantastic service of all in the long history of the British Isles ... when he knifed Boris.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Unfortunately he forgot to knife himself afterwards
> >
> >
> >
> > Gove is liked in DEFRA, he was not like at Justice
> >
> > Personally I dislike the lying toerag.
>
> The problem for those of us watching from the sidelines is his treacherous and destructive behaviour during the Leadership contest. It involved a sudden volte face which appeared to be driven by the Daily Mail's agenda, and one has to suspect his wife played a prominent role in this.
>
> Any development which caused the DM to have a greater influence in our public life would be regrettable, so Gove therefore has to be a bit of a no-no as a future PM - betting interests notwithstanding of course.
I have never been able to understand why Boris/Gove blew up like that.
My best guess is that it was a bit like Smith/Kinnock back in the day; a sudden realisation that the #1 whose ride the #2 had attached to was a dead loss.
That said Mike's on holiday during the Peterborough by election so it'll be an easy Labour hold.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1125762817078984709?s=19
If BP splits the frothers a joint LD/Green candidate could win
https://www.peterborough.gov.uk/council/elections/election-details/
But more seriously, both LDs and Greens have announced candidates - are they talking about one party stepping down to back the other?
I though only fetishists and perverts were into that sort of thing ?
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1125762817078984709?s=19 No, just trolling @HYUFD
> Mr. B, you kinkshamer!
Apologies.
Should I have said fetishists OR perverts ?
Not long now until the Government makes itself even more popular with the Wanking Database and Fap Licences. That'll go down well (with exhibitionists and blackmail enthusiasts).
https://twitter.com/MarkDiStef/status/1125750498177556481
Does any data about the number of registrations get published?
I can't think of a bunch more likely to drive people towards TBP.
At least Farage is not blaming the Jews this time.
He'll be demanding a wall shortly.
https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/973146586934140930
https://twitter.com/TamerELG/status/1125636623566233601
> Waits for later announcement.
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1125705747621236736
>
>
>
>
>
> Perhaps Mr Jackson might stand if thousands of his ex constituents plead for him to run, but it looks as if he might not.
>
> I thought an annunziament about the BP candidate was imminent?
>
> Unity Rees-Mogg as the candidate? Oh my word.
>
> That said Mike's on holiday during the Peterborough by election so it'll be an easy Labour hold.
>
> FWIW
>
> https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1125762817078984709
>
>
>
> If BP splits the frothers a joint LD/Green candidate could win
The Brexit Party could win and Labour fall to third on those figures.
Peterborough voted 60% Leave and neither the Tories nor Labour got even a third of the votes in the area in the local elections
On the issue of Councils with large majorities, I live in Newham where all 60 Councillors are Labour. last year, the Party won just over two thirds of the vote across the Borough.
On a proportional system, you can't deny Labour a majority but instead of 60 Councillors, they'd have 40. Conservatives would have 10, the LDs 4, Greens 4 and the Christian People's Party 2. Labour would still dominate the politics of the Borough but the opposition votes would not just be counted but count.
Why should non-Labour votes in Newham be counted but not count? That's the failure of FPTP.
> Waits for later announcement.
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1125705747621236736
>
>
>
>
>
> Perhaps Mr Jackson might stand if thousands of his ex constituents plead for him to run, but it looks as if he might not.
>
> I thought an annunziament about the BP candidate was imminent?
>
> Unity Rees-Mogg as the candidate? Oh my word.
>
> That said Mike's on holiday during the Peterborough by election so it'll be an easy Labour hold.
>
> FWIW
>
> https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1125762817078984709
>
>
>
> If BP splits the frothers a joint LD/Green candidate could win
>
> Awaits HYUFD prediction of 2024 POTUS election based on these results...
>
> But more seriously, both LDs and Greens have announced candidates - are they talking about one party stepping down to back the other?
Apparently Labour was 4% ahead in the wards which make up the parliamentary seat.
"Our political class have behaved despicably and that behaviour is getting worse by the day."
It's true
https://twitter.com/DaftLimmy/status/1125488723737698306
So much of what happened in Surrey comes back to housing, planning and local environment issues.
> On a related, there's not much time for new groupings and coalitions to be formed before the new councils meet for the first time. Guildford BC has its AGM tomorrow at noon and with the Conservatives comprehensively trounced, the question for me is whether the R4GV and GGG groups will form a coalition with the LDs to take over the Council or try to govern as a minority.
>
> So much of what happened in Surrey comes back to housing, planning and local environment issues.
Expect a lot more Nimbyism in Guildford then if that coalition of LDs and Residents and Independents takes control
> > @Foxy said:
> > Waits for later announcement.
> >
> >
> >
> > https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1125705747621236736
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > Perhaps Mr Jackson might stand if thousands of his ex constituents plead for him to run, but it looks as if he might not.
> >
> > I thought an annunziament about the BP candidate was imminent?
> >
> > Unity Rees-Mogg as the candidate? Oh my word.
> >
> > That said Mike's on holiday during the Peterborough by election so it'll be an easy Labour hold.
> >
> > FWIW
> >
> > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1125762817078984709
> >
> >
> >
> > If BP splits the frothers a joint LD/Green candidate could win
>
> The Brexit Party could win and Labour fall to third on those figures.
>
> Peterborough voted 60% Leave and neither the Tories nor Labour got even a third of the votes in the area in the local elections
Is that the Council or the constituency figures though? The two are not the same. The constituency is much less strongly Tory, as roughly 40% of the Council area is in deep blue NW Cambs.
Prime Minister May's serving of lukewarm quiche to the Tory faithful has guaranteed their loyalty! Her French cocktail Maginot Lime will repel all attempts to assault the invincible bastion of Conservative heartlands!
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Foxy said:
> > > Waits for later announcement.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1125705747621236736
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Perhaps Mr Jackson might stand if thousands of his ex constituents plead for him to run, but it looks as if he might not.
> > >
> > > I thought an annunziament about the BP candidate was imminent?
> > >
> > > Unity Rees-Mogg as the candidate? Oh my word.
> > >
> > > That said Mike's on holiday during the Peterborough by election so it'll be an easy Labour hold.
> > >
> > > FWIW
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1125762817078984709
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > If BP splits the frothers a joint LD/Green candidate could win
> >
> > The Brexit Party could win and Labour fall to third on those figures.
> >
> > Peterborough voted 60% Leave and neither the Tories nor Labour got even a third of the votes in the area in the local elections
>
> Is that the Council or the constituency figures though? The two are not the same. The constituency is much less strongly Tory, as roughly 40% of the Council area is in deep blue NW Cambs.
I cannot see either the Tories or Labour beating the Brexit Party when neither could even get over 33% in the local elections (even if a minority of Peterborough council includes NW Cambridgeshire).
If the Brexit Party win the European elections and we are still in the EU I expect momentum alone will see the Brexit Party win the Peterborough by election, Leavers will flock to them with Remainers dividing up amongst other parties
> > @stodge said:
> > On a related, there's not much time for new groupings and coalitions to be formed before the new councils meet for the first time. Guildford BC has its AGM tomorrow at noon and with the Conservatives comprehensively trounced, the question for me is whether the R4GV and GGG groups will form a coalition with the LDs to take over the Council or try to govern as a minority.
> >
> > So much of what happened in Surrey comes back to housing, planning and local environment issues.
>
> Expect a lot more Nimbyism in Guildford then if that coalition of LDs and Residents and Independents takes control
I don't know about Guildford, but I expect quite a lot of the newly elected independents and residents across the country will end up drifting into the Conservative Party.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1123919300564258816
If TBP were anywhere close to winning the Peterborough constituency at target #203 we'd be in complete meltdown territory. And we're nowhere near that, yet.
> The Brexit Party could win and Labour fall to third on those figures.
>
> > Peterborough voted 60% Leave and neither the Tories nor Labour got even a third of the votes in the area in the local elections
>
> Is that the Council or the constituency figures though? The two are not the same. The constituency is much less strongly Tory, as roughly 40% of the Council area is in deep blue NW Cambs.
>
> As I tried to explain to rcs1000,
>
> https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1123919300564258816
>
>
> If TBP were anywhere close to winning the Peterborough constituency at target #203 we'd be in complete meltdown territory. And we're nowhere near that, yet.
In a by election and with all the momentum of winning the EU Parliament elections it is possible the Brexit Party will win it and hopefully that will frighten the life out of enough Labour MPs from Leave seats like Peterborough (as well as Tory MPs in Leave seats) to finally get the Withdrawal Agreement passed
> https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1125759580364058624
>
>
>
> He's actually trying to incite violence, isn't he.
In what way? I think he's actually trying to incite people to vote for his party.
> https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1125705488593768448
>
>
>
> Perhaps he could name his first large donor before he starts hinting at the identity of new ones.
> @AlastairMeeks said:
> https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1125705488593768448
>
>
>
> Perhaps he could name his first large donor before he starts hinting at the identity of new ones.
> @AlastairMeeks said:
> https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1125705488593768448
>
>
>
> Perhaps he could name his first large donor before he starts hinting at the identity of new ones.
Vladi something....
If the Brexit Party were serious about winning the seat they would have a candidate already in place and campaigning. They clearly are just stringing people along.
Farage does not give a feck as he likes the attention more than sharing it, and prefers being an MEP to an MP.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @stodge said:
> > > On a related, there's not much time for new groupings and coalitions to be formed before the new councils meet for the first time. Guildford BC has its AGM tomorrow at noon and with the Conservatives comprehensively trounced, the question for me is whether the R4GV and GGG groups will form a coalition with the LDs to take over the Council or try to govern as a minority.
> > >
> > > So much of what happened in Surrey comes back to housing, planning and local environment issues.
> >
> > Expect a lot more Nimbyism in Guildford then if that coalition of LDs and Residents and Independents takes control
>
> I don't know about Guildford, but I expect quite a lot of the newly elected independents and residents across the country will end up drifting into the Conservative Party.
They may vote Tory at general election level at local level these groups have been formed mainly to stop any development in their area and they have no intention of doing any pacts with Tories to enable that
Because he closed or took over every outlet.
Managing to lose an election when half the country's in jail and you own the media must be quite the feat.
Interesting that he cares (a little) about the veneer of democracy, though.
I'm sure Iraq has suddenly become a meritocracy and the reach of Eton and Oxford hasn't stretched that far but even if he was chosen on merit in a Party of extreme lightweights he must be the lightest.
> First example of this is one way May screwed up the negotiations (with the EU):
> https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/973146586934140930
Actually I think it's how she screwed up the negotiations with the Leavers in her own party.
> Seriously if Rory the Tory becomes Prime Minister I'm a Dutchman. This is just getting silly. Does anyone think to ask who appointed him governor of a Province in Iraq?
>
> I'm sure Iraq has suddenly become a meritocracy and the reach of Eton and Oxford hasn't stretched that far but even if he was chosen on merit in a Party of extreme lightweights he must be the lightest.
Rory Stewart read history at Balliol, served in the military and diplomatic service and taught at Harvard and has written several books. He may be many things but lightweight he is not!
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @stodge said:
> > > On a related, there's not much time for new groupings and coalitions to be formed before the new councils meet for the first time. Guildford BC has its AGM tomorrow at noon and with the Conservatives comprehensively trounced, the question for me is whether the R4GV and GGG groups will form a coalition with the LDs to take over the Council or try to govern as a minority.
> > >
> > > So much of what happened in Surrey comes back to housing, planning and local environment issues.
> >
> > Expect a lot more Nimbyism in Guildford then if that coalition of LDs and Residents and Independents takes control
>
> I don't know about Guildford, but I expect quite a lot of the newly elected independents and residents across the country will end up drifting into the Conservative Party.
I believe there will be a legal challenge to the local plan in Guildford.
I don't really know what the difference is between the R4GV and GGG. I have been told the GGG have more nimby tendencies, but I have no idea if that is true.
I do know that the R4GV is a broad church of political views, again I do not know if that is reflected in those elected though. I do know that the original defectors who formed the group were made up of 2 Conservatives and 1 Liberal.
I would hope the LDs and R4GV form an administration (with or without GGG).
There was obviously some cooperation between R4GV, LD and GGG, but only some. They were also fighting one another in some wards. Holy Trinity for instance was a tight fight between R4GV and LDs (it was previously a Con stronghold.
I get the feeling that the Indies thought the LDs were feeble in their opposition to the local plan, whereas the LDs I think knew that an appalling local plan was better than a free for all so were strategic in what they did.
It was interesting that the LDs did not challenge the LD defector to R4GV. I think there is mutual respect there.
One of the more bizarre elements and a loss to the council is the R4GV candidate in Effingham. He was a very good candidate taking on a strong LD seat and he failed to win it. When the Ripley by election took place he was the Tory candidate (selected by Mole Valley Conservatives and anti the Guildford Tories). He got slaughtered because all the voters could see was a Tory. They could not distinguish between which Association had picked him. Both he and the LD victor were of very like minds, both defected to the R4GV and both are very knowledgable and strong campaigners against the local plan. Sadly he did not have an opportunity to fight as a R4GV in a seat in his area that was winable and not already held by R4GV.
Just to emphasis again that the issues of Guildford was not down to nimbyism (alone). It was the behaviour of the Executive.
> Labour and the Tories have been campaigning in Peterborough for months, I don't think the Brexit Party will get anywhere near.
Agreed
> Labour and the Tories have been campaigning in Peterborough for months, I don't think the Brexit Party will get anywhere near.
Peterborough voted 60% Leave and Farage is holding a big rally in Peterborough this week.
The by election also comes less than a fortnight after the Brexit Party likely win the European Parliament elections giving them huge publicity and momentum ahead of the by election
> > @Roger said:
> > Seriously if Rory the Tory becomes Prime Minister I'm a Dutchman. This is just getting silly. Does anyone think to ask who appointed him governor of a Province in Iraq?
> >
> > I'm sure Iraq has suddenly become a meritocracy and the reach of Eton and Oxford hasn't stretched that far but even if he was chosen on merit in a Party of extreme lightweights he must be the lightest.
>
> Rory Stewart read history at Balliol, served in the military and diplomatic service and taught at Harvard and has written several books. He may be many things but lightweight he is not!
You just listed pretty much the model CV of a political-class lightweight. The only thing it's missing is being a columnist for the Washington Post.
> Amazing price for The Brexit Party, astonishing really. Whoever would have thought it?
I lumped on at 2.5. Smug City.
> Labour and the Tories have been campaigning in Peterborough for months, I don't think the Brexit Party will get anywhere near.
>
> But everybody hates Labour and Tories
23 seems generous for the Tories.
EDIT: By which I mean I think they have a better chance than that.
(Lumped on=max bet allowed w Betfair SB, £33)
> https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1125705488593768448
>
>
>
> Perhaps he could name his first large donor before he starts hinting at the identity of new ones.
I bet it's a shadowy billionaire who lacks a moral compass.
There is no need to impose artificial limits on the endless horizon that is May's incompetence.
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1125783149001302016
> Farage just running the straight-up Trump playbook now. He's not even pretending anymore.
>
> He'll be demanding a wall shortly.
Ghastly isn't it.
The question is, how big is our basket of deplorables?
It's big, obviously, but is it big enough to sweep Nigel into the purple?
> https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1125705488593768448?s=20
Go Nigel.
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1125783614225096704
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1125784762143191040
> > @isam said:
>
> So did I... on Labour!!!!!!
>
> (Lumped on=max bet allowed w Betfair SB, £33)
Ah OK. I have to do Exchange. I am banned from SB. So I did BP at 2.5 and laid back at 1.2. Nice piece of business it was.
How come you backed Labour when you are a big believer in the power of Nige and the BP?
Was it the old 'emotional hedge', back what you do NOT want so that if it happens the profit dulls the pain?
> On a related, there's not much time for new groupings and coalitions to be formed before the new councils meet for the first time. Guildford BC has its AGM tomorrow at noon and with the Conservatives comprehensively trounced, the question for me is whether the R4GV and GGG groups will form a coalition with the LDs to take over the Council or try to govern as a minority.
>
> So much of what happened in Surrey comes back to housing, planning and local environment issues.
Yes, and specifically the Local Plans in Guildford, Waverley and Tandridge where the Conservatives were massacred (compounding the already hugely damaging Brexit effect common to all 11 Councils). My guess - no inside knowledge - that a coalition between the LibDems and assorted RAs will take control of all three Councils in addition to Elmbridge. I suspect the Conservative might also forfeit Woking too.
> > @isam said:
> > Labour and the Tories have been campaigning in Peterborough for months, I don't think the Brexit Party will get anywhere near.
> >
> > But everybody hates Labour and Tories
>
> 23 seems generous for the Tories.
>
> EDIT: By which I mean I think they have a better chance than that.
None isn't better than anything
Oh no it must be blinding because I’m talking about it 🤣
> > @stodge said:
> > On a related, there's not much time for new groupings and coalitions to be formed before the new councils meet for the first time. Guildford BC has its AGM tomorrow at noon and with the Conservatives comprehensively trounced, the question for me is whether the R4GV and GGG groups will form a coalition with the LDs to take over the Council or try to govern as a minority.
> >
> > So much of what happened in Surrey comes back to housing, planning and local environment issues.
>
> Yes, and specifically the Local Plans in Guildford, Waverley and Tandridge where the Conservatives were massacred (compounding the already hugely damaging Brexit effect common to all 11 Councils). My guess - no inside knowledge - that a coalition between the LibDems and assorted RAs will take control of all three Councils in addition to Elmbridge. I suspect the Conservative might also forfeit Woking too.
Brexit has produced a situation where the Tories gained 8 seats in Stoke last Thursday but were massacred in Surrey and Tunbridge Wells (exacerbated by NIMBY opposition to local plans)
> > @isam said:
> > > @isam said:
> >
> > So did I... on Labour!!!!!!
> >
> > (Lumped on=max bet allowed w Betfair SB, £33)
>
> Ah OK. I have to do Exchange. I am banned from SB. So I did BP at 2.5 and laid back at 1.2. Nice piece of business it was.
>
> How come you backed Labour when you are a big believer in the power of Nige and the BP?
>
> Was it the old 'emotional hedge', back what you do NOT want so that if it happens the profit dulls the pain?
Back value, not what you want, hope, or expect to happen. First rule. One often forgotten.
> Rory Stewart is more likely to be Foreign Secretary in a Boris or Hunt or Raab Cabinet I think than next Tory leader and PM
Lol @ "Boris Cabinet"
>
> No, Richard Nabavi said it [Labour to win Euros] was a 1/2 shot!
Oops, sorry about that! Farage has managed to establish the brand extremely quickly, so the confusion with UKIP (which was behind my thinking) isn't going to happen. If it's any consolation, my lump-on was all of £50.