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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now moving up in the CON leader betting the man who was to tip

13

Comments

  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    > @nico67 said:
    > I think Corbyns in big trouble if he does a deal with May .
    >
    > Over 75% of the membership want a second vote , the party has become much more Remain than in 2016. Labour voters now split over 70% saying Leaving was the wrong decision.
    >
    > Remainers don’t expect a miracle , we expect Labour to do everything possible to secure a second vote on any deal . If that doesn’t work then fine we move on but if Labour is seen as bailing the Tories out then that would cause huge ructions in the party .
    >
    >

    I recall that the Labour Party favoured a vote to Leave the EEC at the time of the 1975 Referendum - it actually opposed the recommendation of the Labour Government. Harold Wilson did not suffer particularly as a consequence.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298
    > @malcolmg said:
    > There are some pretty brutal comments about Rory below but they're probably realistic.
    >
    >
    >
    > Note, though, that Mike Smithson was relating this not to some general theory about how telegenic he might be in a General Election but specifically to the next Tory leader market.
    >
    >
    >
    > I'm not sure what the Conservative MPs and membership will do next. Does anyone? They seem to be in a fey mood and on a mission to self-destruct. In which case, Rory probably won't be on the ticket.
    >
    >
    >
    > Someone mentioned who is likeable to work with. Believe it or not, Michael Gove is loved in the Civil Service. He's very hard working, intelligent and he actually listens. They really like him. To which we can add, that he did this country the most fantastic service of all in the long history of the British Isles ... when he knifed Boris.
    >
    > Unfortunately he forgot to knife himself afterwards

    His leadership campaign was hardly a stunning success....
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    > @brokenwheel said:
    > The one thing that sticks in my mind about Rory is when he said that some of his constituents "Hold their trousers up with twine".
    >
    > Is he MP for the Beyond the Wall constituency?

    The biggest negative in the Rory box is that he has spent the last month defending Mrs May.

    Shows a complete lack of judgement.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    So. No policies at all except WTO Brexit? You really have to hand it to Farage.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,355
    > @malcolmg said:
    > > @malcolmg said:
    >
    > > There are some pretty brutal comments about Rory below but they're probably realistic.
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Note, though, that Mike Smithson was relating this not to some general theory about how telegenic he might be in a General Election but specifically to the next Tory leader market.
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > I'm not sure what the Conservative MPs and membership will do next. Does anyone? They seem to be in a fey mood and on a mission to self-destruct. In which case, Rory probably won't be on the ticket.
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Someone mentioned who is likeable to work with. Believe it or not, Michael Gove is loved in the Civil Service. He's very hard working, intelligent and he actually listens. They really like him. To which we can add, that he did this country the most fantastic service of all in the long history of the British Isles ... when he knifed Boris.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Unfortunately he forgot to knife himself afterwards
    >
    >
    >
    > Gove is liked in DEFRA, he was not like at Justice
    >
    > Personally I dislike the lying toerag.

    The problem for those of us watching from the sidelines is his treacherous and destructive behaviour during the Leadership contest. It involved a sudden volte face which appeared to be driven by the Daily Mail's agenda, and one has to suspect his wife played a prominent role in this.

    Any development which caused the DM to have a greater influence in our public life would be regrettable, so Gove therefore has to be a bit of a no-no as a future PM - betting interests notwithstanding of course.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited May 2019
    > @Scott_P said:
    > https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1125714252407480320

    Is this serious - surely a party can change its rules is they are decided via its due constitutional processes?

    I assume this legal challenge must be a joke?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    brendan16 said:

    Is this serious - surely a party can change its rules is they are decided via its due constitutional processes?

    The question appears to be whether they can do it retrospectively.

    May survived a VONC, which according to the existing rules means no challenge for a year.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    > @brendan16 said:
    > > @Scott_P said:
    > > https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1125714252407480320
    >
    > Is this serious - surely a party can change its rules is they are decided via its due constitutional processes?
    >
    > I assume this legal challenge must be a joke?

    But would any change come into effect before next December given that Theresa May was given a Vote of Confidence last December which does not expire for 12 months?
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,355
    > @Scott_P said:
    > https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1125717236038144005

    A Downing Street spokesman said: “It is absolutely untrue to suggest we are considering legal action of any kind.”

    Officially denied....so must be true, no?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,812
    Mr. P, 'never believe anything until it's been officially denied' springs to mind.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    edited May 2019
    > @nico67 said:
    > Quite amazing reporting by the BBC. Both Tories and Labour took a drubbing at the local elections .
    >
    > The BBC is now a mouthpiece for the government. How does 1300 versus 80 odd seat losses equate to a drubbing for both sides .

    _________________________________________________________________________

    Well it's certainly a mouthpiece for Brexit-related stories as opposed to pro-EU stories. I can't remember BBC bias like it since the Falklands War. Radio Sweden was then a good source of impartial news, i.e. in English as perfect as the World Service. I don't know if it's still going. The NY Times is pretty good also when you suspect that the government is telling the BBC what to say.

    It all makes the licence fee seem a waste of time because it doesn't make the BBC more independent. Just fund it from general taxation as some countries already do and spend the 10-20% admin. saving on public services ...
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    > @Scott_P said:
    > https://twitter.com/tombarton/status/1125715542680248321

    It seems to be an old website - and no votes in Parliament have been added since last June.

    Clearly if they did it now half of Tory MPs would need to be listed!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    Scott_P said:

    brendan16 said:

    Is this serious - surely a party can change its rules is they are decided via its due constitutional processes?

    The question appears to be whether they can do it retrospectively.

    May survived a VONC, which according to the existing rules means no challenge for a year.
    It's ironic that May now has to resort to Gina Miller tactics to cling on to her position.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,912

    Also, I keep reading about Tory MPs who want to end the talks with Corbyn, go back to Brussels and renegotiate the backstop. So even if Brussels said yes and rewrote the WA, something you'd say is a million to one against, then what? They still haven't got a majority. The hardline pro EU Tories want a referendum and no Brexit. It's not even clear the DUP even wants Brexit any more.



    How do they get over the line? Am I missing something?



    May's strategy to stitch something up with Labour is the only game in town. That should have been obvious of course on 9th June 2017.... I think I may have suggested that, with many others, at the time.

    You are not missing anything, the ERG's position doesn't make any sense.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1125711388054364161

    Is Nigel aware he wont get a pension if the £39b isn't paid?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    > @brendan16 said:
    > > @Scott_P said:
    > > https://twitter.com/tombarton/status/1125715542680248321
    >
    > It seems to be an old website - and no votes in Parliament have been added since last June.
    >
    > Clearly if they did it now half of Tory MPs would need to be listed!

    That's an interesting choice of seat as it's one the Tories lost due to picking a candidate with nasty skeletons hidden in their past.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited May 2019
    > @rural_voter said:
    > > @nico67 said:
    > > Quite amazing reporting by the BBC. Both Tories and Labour took a drubbing at the local elections .
    > >
    > > The BBC is now a mouthpiece for the government. How does 1300 versus 80 odd seat losses equate to a drubbing for both sides .
    >
    > _________________________________________________________________________
    >
    > Well it's certainly a mouthpiece for Brexit-related stories as opposed to pro-EU stories. I can't remember BBC bias like it since the Falklands War. Radio Sweden was then a good source of impartial news, i.e. in English as perfect as the World Service. I don't know if it's still going. The NY Times is pretty good also when you suspect that the government is telling the BBC what to say.
    >
    > It all makes the licence fee seem a waste of time because it doesn't make the BBC more independent. Just fund it from general taxation as some countries already do and spend the 10-20% admin. saving on public services ...

    The BBC is pro Brexit? Any actual evidence?

    Sounds like a conspiracy theory to me - perhaps the Guardian should investigate.

    Maybe you are watching a different BBC to the rest of us - seems to me it is doing its best to be neutral even if most of its presenters (bar possibly Andrew Neil) backed remain.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720

    Is Nigel aware he wont get a pension if the £39b isn't paid?

    He's aiming to keep his salary.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,912





    Is Nigel aware he wont get a pension if the £39b isn't paid?
    I'm fairly confident that Farage is not expecting to have to deliver on that pledge, and he might even have some bets placed just in case he does.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,381
    > @brendan16 said:
    > > @rural_voter said:
    > > > @nico67 said:
    > > > Quite amazing reporting by the BBC. Both Tories and Labour took a drubbing at the local elections .
    > > >
    > > > The BBC is now a mouthpiece for the government. How does 1300 versus 80 odd seat losses equate to a drubbing for both sides .
    > >
    > > _________________________________________________________________________
    > >
    > > Well it's certainly a mouthpiece for Brexit-related stories as opposed to pro-EU stories. I can't remember BBC bias like it since the Falklands War. Radio Sweden was then a good source of impartial news, i.e. in English as perfect as the World Service. I don't know if it's still going. The NY Times is pretty good also when you suspect that the government is telling the BBC what to say.
    > >
    > > It all makes the licence fee seem a waste of time because it doesn't make the BBC more independent. Just fund it from general taxation as some countries already do and spend the 10-20% admin. saving on public services ...
    >
    > The BBC is pro Brexit?
    >
    > Sounds like a conspiracy theory to me - perhaps the Guardian should investigate.
    >
    > Maybe you are watching a different BBC to the rest of us - seems to me it is doing its best to be neutral even if most of its presenters (bar possibly Andrew Neil) backed remain.
    >

    Andrew Adonis thinks it's pro-Brexit. He wants its journalists to be sacked, as a result.

    That might suggest that his attachment to reality is a bit tenuous.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    > @brendan16 said:
    > > @rural_voter said:
    > > > @nico67 said:
    > > > Quite amazing reporting by the BBC. Both Tories and Labour took a drubbing at the local elections .
    > > >
    > > > The BBC is now a mouthpiece for the government. How does 1300 versus 80 odd seat losses equate to a drubbing for both sides .
    > >
    > > _________________________________________________________________________
    > >
    > > Well it's certainly a mouthpiece for Brexit-related stories as opposed to pro-EU stories. I can't remember BBC bias like it since the Falklands War. Radio Sweden was then a good source of impartial news, i.e. in English as perfect as the World Service. I don't know if it's still going. The NY Times is pretty good also when you suspect that the government is telling the BBC what to say.
    > >
    > > It all makes the licence fee seem a waste of time because it doesn't make the BBC more independent. Just fund it from general taxation as some countries already do and spend the 10-20% admin. saving on public services ...
    >
    > The BBC is pro Brexit?
    >
    > Sounds like a conspiracy theory to me - perhaps the Guardian should investigate.
    >
    > Maybe you are watching a different BBC to the rest of us - seems to me it is doing its best to be neutral even if most of its presenters (bar possibly Andrew Neil) backed remain.
    >
    _____________________________________________________________________________

    R4 News has become biased. Individual programmes vary, AQ still seems balanced. I don't watch TV.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    > @nico67 said:
    > Quite amazing reporting by the BBC. Both Tories and Labour took a drubbing at the local elections .
    >
    > The BBC is now a mouthpiece for the government. How does 1300 versus 80 odd seat losses equate to a drubbing for both sides .

    Because both main parties fell to an NEV of around 28% having both been up around 38% in the polls only weeks earlier
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,815
    > @isam said:
    > https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1125694356260839424

    What does he mean or is he making a joke?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    > @IanB2 said:
    > > @nico67 said:
    > > Quite amazing reporting by the BBC. Both Tories and Labour took a drubbing at the local elections .
    > >
    > > The BBC is now a mouthpiece for the government. How does 1300 versus 80 odd seat losses equate to a drubbing for both sides .
    >
    > Because both main parties fell to an NEV of around 28% having both been up around 38% in the polls only weeks earlier

    Thrasher and Rallings made it 31 apiece. Which does not negate your point, but is rather less dramatic.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    kjh said:

    > @isam said:

    >





    What does he mean or is he making a joke?
    Mocking those who trip over themselves to find conspiracy in everything Farage does
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited May 2019
    > @isam said:
    > > @isam said:
    >
    > > https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1125694356260839424
    >
    >
    >
    >
    >
    > What does he mean or is he making a joke?
    >
    > Mocking those who trip over themselves to find conspiracy in everything Farage does



    And all those oh so hilarious tweets about how FBPE types are recycling (in various ways), defacing and setting fire to their Brexit party communications and demanding to know how Nigel got their address!.

    It was the Russians Elizabeth - the Russians!

    https://www.joe.co.uk/news/brexit-party-leaflets-230542


    "Elizabeth Kelly
    @ek_winegirl
    @brexitparty_uk this is your leaflet burning on my fire. How have you got my address to send it to me, as I would never have provided it to you.

    10:17 PM - May 3, 2019"
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,815
    edited May 2019
    > @isam said:
    > > @isam said:
    >
    > > https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1125694356260839424
    >
    >
    >
    >
    >
    > What does he mean or is he making a joke?
    >
    > Mocking those who trip over themselves to find conspiracy in everything Farage does

    OK a joke. I need my irony meter turned on.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,005
    Whatsa Boris gonna do, or is duplicitous, old shagger priced in?

    https://twitter.com/jane__bradley/status/1125317067593474048
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772

    Whatsa Boris gonna do, or is duplicitous, old shagger priced in?



    No need to show off anything. If he gets to the members vote he is leader.

    Arm twisting enough MPs to send him through is another matter.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    > @Theuniondivvie said:
    > Whatsa Boris gonna do, or is duplicitous, old shagger priced in?
    >
    > https://twitter.com/jane__bradley/status/1125317067593474048

    One thing I like about Corbyn is that he does not use his wife as some sort of political wallpaper.

    If a wife wants to go into politics, fine. If not, leave her out of it.

    Otherwise it just comes across as a sort of creepy "I know I'm a political geek. And most normal women would run a mile. But, hey, I've managed to have sex. And I've managed to find someone to have sex with more than once." Yuk.
  • ExiledInScotlandExiledInScotland Posts: 1,529
    If TM agrees a deal with Labour and then puts it to a whipped vote - any Tories that vote against it would lose the whip and be ineligible to vote in a leadership contest?
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited May 2019
    > @ExiledInScotland said:
    > If TM agrees a deal with Labour and then puts it to a whipped vote - any Tories that vote against it would lose the whip and be ineligible to vote in a leadership contest?

    Which could well be a majority of Tory MPs based on previous votes on the CU!

    Could you really lose the whip on a non confidence vote for sticking by the general election manifesto you got elected on i.e. not staying in a customs union with the EU.

    May simply lacks the authority.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,712
    Cyclefree said:

    > @Theuniondivvie said:

    > Whatsa Boris gonna do, or is duplicitous, old shagger priced in?

    >

    >





    One thing I like about Corbyn is that he does not use his wife as some sort of political wallpaper.



    If a wife wants to go into politics, fine. If not, leave her out of it.



    Otherwise it just comes across as a sort of creepy "I know I'm a political geek. And most normal women would run a mile. But, hey, I've managed to have sex. And I've managed to find someone to have sex with more than once." Yuk.
    An issue is that if you go too far the other way, the tittle-tattlers will start making other noises about why she isn't appearing in public, as if the public own her because of her husband's position (*). It's a very hard line to walk, but I agree that Raab's attempt is a little crass.

    (*) This does not necessarily seem to work the other way with spouses of political women.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    > @ExiledInScotland said:
    > If TM agrees a deal with Labour and then puts it to a whipped vote - any Tories that vote against it would lose the whip and be ineligible to vote in a leadership contest?

    Depends on whether they consider stopping a bad deal more important than keeping the whip. And if they lose the whip the Tories are no longer the government, are they? So May could be forced into keeping them as Tory MPs as the price for keeping the Tories in government.

    Party discipline seems to have completely broken down in the Tories. They are two parties masquerading as one.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    > @JosiasJessop said:
    > > @Theuniondivvie said:
    >
    > > Whatsa Boris gonna do, or is duplicitous, old shagger priced in?
    >
    > >
    >
    > > https://twitter.com/jane__bradley/status/1125317067593474048
    >
    >
    >
    >
    >
    > One thing I like about Corbyn is that he does not use his wife as some sort of political wallpaper.
    >
    >
    >
    > If a wife wants to go into politics, fine. If not, leave her out of it.
    >
    >
    >
    > Otherwise it just comes across as a sort of creepy "I know I'm a political geek. And most normal women would run a mile. But, hey, I've managed to have sex. And I've managed to find someone to have sex with more than once." Yuk.
    >
    > An issue is that if you go too far the other way, the tittle-tattlers will start making other noises about why she isn't appearing in public, as if the public own her because of her husband's position (*). It's a very hard line to walk, but I agree that Raab's attempt is a little crass.
    >
    > (*) This does not necessarily seem to work the other way with spouses of political women.

    Was there much tittle tattle about Jeremy or Dominic?

    It's the whole "little woman as an appendage" shtick which revolts. We're not there to make our men look good. This is not the 1950's. Why on earth do the Tories think this looks cool in 2019, for crying out loud?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    So the BP EU manifesto summed up. Destroy UK manufacturing , refuse to honour UK financial obligations , rip up the Good Friday Agreement the direct result of a WTO exit .
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,005
    edited May 2019
    Not sure if this was quite what Hayek was envisaging as classical liberalism, but hey ho.

    https://twitter.com/smitharrytv/status/1125730036697509888
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    > @IanB2 said:
    > > @nico67 said:
    > > Quite amazing reporting by the BBC. Both Tories and Labour took a drubbing at the local elections .
    > >
    > > The BBC is now a mouthpiece for the government. How does 1300 versus 80 odd seat losses equate to a drubbing for both sides .
    >
    > Because both main parties fell to an NEV of around 28% having both been up around 38% in the polls only weeks earlier

    Rallings & Thrasher have given them both 31% with the LDs on 17%.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772

    If TM agrees a deal with Labour and then puts it to a whipped vote - any Tories that vote against it would lose the whip and be ineligible to vote in a leadership contest?

    Falls down in the first seven words.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    > @Theuniondivvie said:
    > Not sure if this was quite what Hayek was envisaging as classical liberalism, but hey ho.
    >
    > https://twitter.com/smitharrytv/status/1125730036697509888

    "Satirical rape": there's a concept to grapple with.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    > @Cyclefree said:
    > > @JosiasJessop said:
    > > > @Theuniondivvie said:
    > >
    > > > Whatsa Boris gonna do, or is duplicitous, old shagger priced in?
    > >
    > > >
    > >
    > > > https://twitter.com/jane__bradley/status/1125317067593474048
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > One thing I like about Corbyn is that he does not use his wife as some sort of political wallpaper.
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > If a wife wants to go into politics, fine. If not, leave her out of it.
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > Otherwise it just comes across as a sort of creepy "I know I'm a political geek. And most normal women would run a mile. But, hey, I've managed to have sex. And I've managed to find someone to have sex with more than once." Yuk.
    > >
    > > An issue is that if you go too far the other way, the tittle-tattlers will start making other noises about why she isn't appearing in public, as if the public own her because of her husband's position (*). It's a very hard line to walk, but I agree that Raab's attempt is a little crass.
    > >
    > > (*) This does not necessarily seem to work the other way with spouses of political women.
    >
    > Was there much tittle tattle about Jeremy or Dominic?
    >
    > It's the whole "little woman as an appendage" shtick which revolts. We're not there to make our men look good. This is not the 1950's. Why on earth do the Tories think this looks cool in 2019, for crying out loud?

    The Times tweet seems a bit odd if it illustrates an article about Dominic Raab with a photo of the Hunt family. Presumably, as Raab is being positioned as the ERG's alternative to Boris, the happy marriage is intended as a dog whistle for the latter's more flexible take on marriage vows. "Speaking as a mother," this sort of thing can easily backfire and we end up with Theresa May at Number 10.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,683
    Cyclefree said:

    > @JosiasJessop said:

    > > @Theuniondivvie said:

    >

    > > Whatsa Boris gonna do, or is duplicitous, old shagger priced in?

    >

    > >

    >

    > >



    >

    >

    >

    >

    >

    > One thing I like about Corbyn is that he does not use his wife as some sort of political wallpaper.

    >

    >

    >

    > If a wife wants to go into politics, fine. If not, leave her out of it.

    >

    >

    >

    > Otherwise it just comes across as a sort of creepy "I know I'm a political geek. And most normal women would run a mile. But, hey, I've managed to have sex. And I've managed to find someone to have sex with more than once." Yuk.

    >

    > An issue is that if you go too far the other way, the tittle-tattlers will start making other noises about why she isn't appearing in public, as if the public own her because of her husband's position (*). It's a very hard line to walk, but I agree that Raab's attempt is a little crass.

    >

    > (*) This does not necessarily seem to work the other way with spouses of political women.



    Was there much tittle tattle about Jeremy or Dominic?



    It's the whole "little woman as an appendage" shtick which revolts. We're not there to make our men look good. This is not the 1950's. Why on earth do the Tories think this looks cool in 2019, for crying out loud?
    Do the candidates still have to assure certain elements of the membership that they're not - how should one phrase it? - still bachelor boys?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605
    edited May 2019
    > @Cyclefree said:
    > > @Theuniondivvie said:
    > > Whatsa Boris gonna do, or is duplicitous, old shagger priced in?
    > >
    > > https://twitter.com/jane__bradley/status/1125317067593474048
    >
    > One thing I like about Corbyn is that he does not use his wife as some sort of political wallpaper.
    >
    > If a wife wants to go into politics, fine. If not, leave her out of it.
    >
    > Otherwise it just comes across as a sort of creepy "I know I'm a political geek. And most normal women would run a mile. But, hey, I've managed to have sex. And I've managed to find someone to have sex with more than once." Yuk.

    _________________________________________________________________

    When I see a married couple I generally don't think about the sex. I usually think about the partnership and the mutual support.

    When I see Theresa and Philip May, I think what do they talk about; how does he support her; does he advise her etc. I must certainly don't think about the sex! Yuk.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    A parody website with embarrassing photos of Joe Biden is outranking his official campaign page on Google

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/03/joe-biden-parody-website-is-beating-official-campaign-site-on-google.html
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    If TM agrees a deal with Labour and then puts it to a whipped vote - any Tories that vote against it would lose the whip and be ineligible to vote in a leadership contest?

    That would only happen in a vote of confidence which you can't do with Mays deal because of the FTPA. Or have I got something wrong here...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    > @ExiledInScotland said:
    > If TM agrees a deal with Labour and then puts it to a whipped vote - any Tories that vote against it would lose the whip and be ineligible to vote in a leadership contest?

    That would be bold with a majority of 5. To say the least.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,712
    Cyclefree said:

    > @JosiasJessop said:

    > > @Theuniondivvie said:

    >

    > > Whatsa Boris gonna do, or is duplicitous, old shagger priced in?

    >

    > >

    >

    > >



    >

    >

    >

    >

    >

    > One thing I like about Corbyn is that he does not use his wife as some sort of political wallpaper.

    >

    >

    >

    > If a wife wants to go into politics, fine. If not, leave her out of it.

    >

    >

    >

    > Otherwise it just comes across as a sort of creepy "I know I'm a political geek. And most normal women would run a mile. But, hey, I've managed to have sex. And I've managed to find someone to have sex with more than once." Yuk.

    >

    > An issue is that if you go too far the other way, the tittle-tattlers will start making other noises about why she isn't appearing in public, as if the public own her because of her husband's position (*). It's a very hard line to walk, but I agree that Raab's attempt is a little crass.

    >

    > (*) This does not necessarily seem to work the other way with spouses of political women.



    Was there much tittle tattle about Jeremy or Dominic?



    It's the whole "little woman as an appendage" shtick which revolts. We're not there to make our men look good. This is not the 1950's. Why on earth do the Tories think this looks cool in 2019, for crying out loud?
    I agree with that.

    But which Jeremy and Dominic are you referring to?
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Pulpstar said:


    Are there enough Labour and Tory loyalists to get the fudge through ?

    Would take a huge rebellion on both sides for it to fail ....

    312 Tories - 150 rebels = 162
    244 Lab - 100 rebels = 144

    Plus a few Lab indies, leaves it around 10 short. Some rebels could surely be persuaded to abstain though.


  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    > @Barnesian said:
    > > @Cyclefree said:
    > > > @Theuniondivvie said:
    > > > Whatsa Boris gonna do, or is duplicitous, old shagger priced in?
    > > >
    > > > https://twitter.com/jane__bradley/status/1125317067593474048
    > >
    > > One thing I like about Corbyn is that he does not use his wife as some sort of political wallpaper.
    > >
    > > If a wife wants to go into politics, fine. If not, leave her out of it.
    > >
    > > Otherwise it just comes across as a sort of creepy "I know I'm a political geek. And most normal women would run a mile. But, hey, I've managed to have sex. And I've managed to find someone to have sex with more than once." Yuk.
    >
    > _________________________________________________________________
    >
    > When I see a married couple I generally don't think about the sex. I usually think about the partnership and the mutual support.
    >
    > When I see Theresa and Philip May, I think what do they talk about; how does he support her; does he advise her etc. I must certainly don't think about the sex! Yuk.

    Neither did I till I read your post...
    Cease and desist forthwith please.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    Charles Walker on R4 suggests colleagues "may feel more comfortable in another Party."
    F off and join Nigel, Spartans in other words.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    > @Andrew said:
    > Are there enough Labour and Tory loyalists to get the fudge through ?
    >
    > Would take a huge rebellion on both sides for it to fail ....
    >
    > 312 Tories - 150 rebels = 162
    > 244 Lab - 100 rebels = 144
    >
    > Plus a few Lab indies, leaves it around 10 short. Some rebels could surely be persuaded to abstain though.
    ---------------
    Haha - May's already made that mistake in MV1, MV2 and MV3.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    > @Barnesian said:
    > > @Cyclefree said:
    > > > @Theuniondivvie said:
    > > > Whatsa Boris gonna do, or is duplicitous, old shagger priced in?
    > > >
    > > > https://twitter.com/jane__bradley/status/1125317067593474048
    > >
    > > One thing I like about Corbyn is that he does not use his wife as some sort of political wallpaper.
    > >
    > > If a wife wants to go into politics, fine. If not, leave her out of it.
    > >
    > > Otherwise it just comes across as a sort of creepy "I know I'm a political geek. And most normal women would run a mile. But, hey, I've managed to have sex. And I've managed to find someone to have sex with more than once." Yuk.
    >
    > _________________________________________________________________
    >
    > When I see a married couple I generally don't think about the sex. I usually think about the partnership and the mutual support.
    >
    > When I see Theresa and Philip May, I think what do they talk about; how does he support her; does he advise her etc. I must certainly don't think about the sex! Yuk.

    When I see a spouse being used as part of some political campaign, I wonder what image the politician is trying to sell. I assume that married couples provide partnership and mutual support. I don't need to see pictures of them holding hands and looking in a gooey way at each other. It looks contrived and a bit creepy, mainly because it is so demeaning to the woman and, by implication, to all women.

    But perhaps it's just me.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    > @JosiasJessop said:
    > > @JosiasJessop said:
    >
    > > > @Theuniondivvie said:
    >
    > >
    >
    > > > Whatsa Boris gonna do, or is duplicitous, old shagger priced in?
    >
    > >
    >
    > > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > > https://twitter.com/jane__bradley/status/1125317067593474048
    >
    >
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > One thing I like about Corbyn is that he does not use his wife as some sort of political wallpaper.
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > If a wife wants to go into politics, fine. If not, leave her out of it.
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > >
    >
    > > Otherwise it just comes across as a sort of creepy "I know I'm a political geek. And most normal women would run a mile. But, hey, I've managed to have sex. And I've managed to find someone to have sex with more than once." Yuk.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > An issue is that if you go too far the other way, the tittle-tattlers will start making other noises about why she isn't appearing in public, as if the public own her because of her husband's position (*). It's a very hard line to walk, but I agree that Raab's attempt is a little crass.
    >
    > >
    >
    > > (*) This does not necessarily seem to work the other way with spouses of political women.
    >
    >
    >
    > Was there much tittle tattle about Jeremy or Dominic?
    >
    >
    >
    > It's the whole "little woman as an appendage" shtick which revolts. We're not there to make our men look good. This is not the 1950's. Why on earth do the Tories think this looks cool in 2019, for crying out loud?
    >
    > I agree with that.
    >
    > But which Jeremy and Dominic are you referring to?

    Hunt and Raab.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298
    > @TudorRose said:
    > > @Andrew said:
    > > Are there enough Labour and Tory loyalists to get the fudge through ?
    > >
    > > Would take a huge rebellion on both sides for it to fail ....
    > >
    > > 312 Tories - 150 rebels = 162
    > > 244 Lab - 100 rebels = 144
    > >
    > > Plus a few Lab indies, leaves it around 10 short. Some rebels could surely be persuaded to abstain though.
    > ---------------
    > Haha - May's already made that mistake in MV1, MV2 and MV3.
    >

    MV1, MV2 and MV3 were officially opposed by Labour.

    Ken Clarke's customs union motion got 273 votes or so. Theresa only needs to bring 50 more Tory MPs with her and it would pass if (perhaps a big if) others voted as they did in the indicative votes...
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    > @rkrkrk said:
    > > @TudorRose said:
    > > > @Andrew said:
    > > > Are there enough Labour and Tory loyalists to get the fudge through ?
    > > >
    > > > Would take a huge rebellion on both sides for it to fail ....
    > > >
    > > > 312 Tories - 150 rebels = 162
    > > > 244 Lab - 100 rebels = 144
    > > >
    > > > Plus a few Lab indies, leaves it around 10 short. Some rebels could surely be persuaded to abstain though.
    > > ---------------
    > > Haha - May's already made that mistake in MV1, MV2 and MV3.
    > >
    >
    > MV1, MV2 and MV3 were officially opposed by Labour.
    >
    > Ken Clarke's customs union motion got 273 votes or so. Theresa only needs to bring 50 more Tory MPs with her and it would pass if (perhaps a big if) others voted as they did in the indicative votes...
    ---------------
    I think it's expecting a lot of the word 'only' given recent experience.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    I see Junker is doing his bit to support the Brexit Party
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    > @Scott_P said:
    > https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1125740852335263745

    To lose one Baroness is unfortunate...
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    TudorRose said:

    > @Andrew said:

    > Are there enough Labour and Tory loyalists to get the fudge through ?

    >

    > Would take a huge rebellion on both sides for it to fail ....

    >

    > 312 Tories - 150 rebels = 162

    > 244 Lab - 100 rebels = 144

    >

    > Plus a few Lab indies, leaves it around 10 short. Some rebels could surely be persuaded to abstain though.

    ---------------

    Haha - May's already made that mistake in MV1, MV2 and MV3.


    True enough, but it would be a different scenario here. Previously everyone knew it was going down, free license to rebel because it didn't matter. Now, with both front benches on board, the likelihood is it passes.

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,534
    > @Cyclefree said:
    > > @Theuniondivvie said:
    > > Not sure if this was quite what Hayek was envisaging as classical liberalism, but hey ho.
    > >
    > > https://twitter.com/smitharrytv/status/1125730036697509888
    >
    > "Satirical rape": there's a concept to grapple with.

    I doubt if UKIP's residual vote is going to be much concerned, cf. Trump fans and pussy-grabbing etc.Everything is either a joke that we puritans are missing, or misreporting.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    I see the Narcissist AKA Nigel Farage is banging on about things "clearly not being what people voted for". How the f**k does he know the arrogant tosser? Some people, by a very small margin voted, in a binary referendum to "leave the EU". That could easily mean everything form Switzerland or Norway (not members of the EU) to full on full-fat self harm as advocated by lunatics and charlatans like him and Boris Johnson.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    edited May 2019
    What tory performance in the Euros would mean that even someone as disconnected from reality as May would have to go? Under 10% must be at least likely.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    > @NickPalmer said:
    > > @Cyclefree said:
    > > > @Theuniondivvie said:
    > > > Not sure if this was quite what Hayek was envisaging as classical liberalism, but hey ho.
    > > >
    > > > https://twitter.com/smitharrytv/status/1125730036697509888
    > >
    > > "Satirical rape": there's a concept to grapple with.
    >
    > I doubt if UKIP's residual vote is going to be much concerned, cf. Trump fans and pussy-grabbing etc.Everything is either a joke that we puritans are missing, or misreporting.

    It is utterly revolting. It's beyond the level of decency that one is entitled - possibly naively - to expect, even from people with whom one disagrees politically.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited May 2019
    > @Nigel_Foremain said:
    > I see the Narcissist AKA Nigel Farage is banging on about >things "clearly not being what people voted for". How the f**k does >he know the arrogant tosser? Some people, by a very small margin >voted, in a binary referendum to "leave the EU". That could easily >mean everything form Switzerland or Norway (not members of the >EU) to full on full-fat self harm as advocated by lunatics and >charlatans like him and Boris Johnson.

    https://twitter.com/Arron_banks/status/682125949245206528
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,381
    > @Cyclefree said:
    > > @NickPalmer said:
    > > > @Cyclefree said:
    > > > > @Theuniondivvie said:
    > > > > Not sure if this was quite what Hayek was envisaging as classical liberalism, but hey ho.
    > > > >
    > > > > https://twitter.com/smitharrytv/status/1125730036697509888
    > > >
    > > > "Satirical rape": there's a concept to grapple with.
    > >
    > > I doubt if UKIP's residual vote is going to be much concerned, cf. Trump fans and pussy-grabbing etc.Everything is either a joke that we puritans are missing, or misreporting.
    >
    > It is utterly revolting. It's beyond the level of decency that one is entitled - possibly naively - to expect, even from people with whom one disagrees politically.

    For once, there is such a thing as bad publicity.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Dura_Ace said:

    What tory performance in the Euros would mean that even someone as disconnected from reality as May would have to go? Under 10% must be at least likely.

    Minus figures?
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    > @Cyclefree said:
    > > @Barnesian said:
    > > > @Cyclefree said:
    > > > > @Theuniondivvie said:
    > > > > Whatsa Boris gonna do, or is duplicitous, old shagger priced in?
    > > > >
    > > > > https://twitter.com/jane__bradley/status/1125317067593474048
    > > >
    > > > One thing I like about Corbyn is that he does not use his wife as some sort of political wallpaper.
    > > >
    > > > If a wife wants to go into politics, fine. If not, leave her out of it.
    > > >
    > > > Otherwise it just comes across as a sort of creepy "I know I'm a political geek. And most normal women would run a mile. But, hey, I've managed to have sex. And I've managed to find someone to have sex with more than once." Yuk.
    > >
    > > _________________________________________________________________
    > >
    > > When I see a married couple I generally don't think about the sex. I usually think about the partnership and the mutual support.
    > >
    > > When I see Theresa and Philip May, I think what do they talk about; how does he support her; does he advise her etc. I must certainly don't think about the sex! Yuk.
    >
    > When I see a spouse being used as part of some political campaign, I wonder what image the politician is trying to sell. I assume that married couples provide partnership and mutual support. I don't need to see pictures of them holding hands and looking in a gooey way at each other. It looks contrived and a bit creepy, mainly because it is so demeaning to the woman and, by implication, to all women.
    >
    > But perhaps it's just me.

    No it's not just you
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,565
    Sorry for no posting for a while. Have been very busy securing that 703rd gain and recovering all weekend.

    On topic the Tories could do a hell of a lot worse than Rory. A calm man for a frantic age.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    > @Cyclefree said:
    > > @ExiledInScotland said:
    > > If TM agrees a deal with Labour and then puts it to a whipped vote - any Tories that vote against it would lose the whip and be ineligible to vote in a leadership contest?
    >
    > Depends on whether they consider stopping a bad deal more important than keeping the whip. And if they lose the whip the Tories are no longer the government, are they? So May could be forced into keeping them as Tory MPs as the price for keeping the Tories in government.
    >
    > Party discipline seems to have completely broken down in the Tories. They are two parties masquerading as one.

    Only two?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    > @brokenwheel said:
    > What tory performance in the Euros would mean that even someone as disconnected from reality as May would have to go? Under 10% must be at least likely.
    >
    > Minus figures?

    I wonder what Tory performance in any election would have to be before they woke up to the realisation that Brexit is pointless and has destroyed their reputation for competence. Similarly what sort of Labour performance will make them wake up to the fact that their leader is a thick numpty and is (in more normal times) completely unelectable.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    > @Scott_P said:
    > https://twitter.com/ORB_Int/status/1125747733762125829

    The 5% must include the incredibly stupid with a bunch of hedge fund managers, Vladimir Putin, Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees Mogg.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Was there any doubt it is part of the talks?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,478
    > @williamglenn said:
    > https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1125748194175008768?s=21

    She used to be in support of staying in the EU, but then she thought that if she changed her mind she could be PM......
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    > @williamglenn said:

    >





    She used to be in support of staying in the EU, but then she thought that if she changed her mind she could be PM......
    Her support was lukewarm, at best.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,884
    Cyclefree said:

    > @Barnesian said:

    > > @Cyclefree said:

    > > > @Theuniondivvie said:

    > > > Whatsa Boris gonna do, or is duplicitous, old shagger priced in?

    > > >

    > > >



    > >

    > > One thing I like about Corbyn is that he does not use his wife as some sort of political wallpaper.

    > >

    > > If a wife wants to go into politics, fine. If not, leave her out of it.

    > >

    > > Otherwise it just comes across as a sort of creepy "I know I'm a political geek. And most normal women would run a mile. But, hey, I've managed to have sex. And I've managed to find someone to have sex with more than once." Yuk.

    >

    > _________________________________________________________________

    >

    > When I see a married couple I generally don't think about the sex. I usually think about the partnership and the mutual support.

    >

    > When I see Theresa and Philip May, I think what do they talk about; how does he support her; does he advise her etc. I must certainly don't think about the sex! Yuk.



    When I see a spouse being used as part of some political campaign, I wonder what image the politician is trying to sell. I assume that married couples provide partnership and mutual support. I don't need to see pictures of them holding hands and looking in a gooey way at each other. It looks contrived and a bit creepy, mainly because it is so demeaning to the woman and, by implication, to all women.



    But perhaps it's just me.
    "Marriage is the root of all sexism." - Nudistani proverb.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,681
    edited May 2019
    If we do end up remaining we should put up statues of Mark Francois, Steve Baker, and other luminaries of the ERG.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,681
    I like Rory even if he was a member of the Labour party in his youth and switched from reading History to PPE.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,884
    RobD said:

    > @Scott_P said:

    >





    To lose one Baroness is unfortunate...
    House of Unelected Has-Beens :lol:
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    edited May 2019
    > @TheScreamingEagles said:
    > https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1125748194175008768
    >
    >
    >
    > If we do end up remaining we should put statues of Mark Francois, Steve Baker, and other luminaries of the ERG.

    "Where do you want your statues, ERG ?"
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,019
    > @Nigel_Foremain said:

    > I wonder what Tory performance in any election would have to be before they woke up to the realisation that Brexit is pointless and has destroyed their reputation for competence. Similarly what sort of Labour performance will make them wake up to the fact that their leader is a thick numpty and is (in more normal times) completely unelectable.

    Under FPTP, the core vote against the other will always see one of them home. Logic does not come into it: a working majority on 33% (similar to the disgraceful 2005 election result) will be taken as evidence of support for whatever crackpottery the next government will propose. And ditto the one after it. I suspect the eventual showdown of Bannonite fascism versus whatever anti-fascism movement the likes of you and I can cobble together will come in the election following the next two governments. FPTP will make it a dangerous lottery.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    > @Scott_P said:
    > https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1125072186040102914

    " Scotland moved twelve years ago to using proportional representation for its local elections, a system which means that councils reflect the votes cast far better than some examples which have been presented in this piece. The Welsh Government is considering giving councils the right to choose their electoral system in the future, and one of these days – perhaps after the government changes next – England is going to follow suit. This piece has mentioned a number of local administrations which over the last four years or more have been complacent, poorly-performing, disrespected, decaying, or worse; and in many of those cases its England’s first-past-the-post electoral system which keeps them there, with council majorities which their vote shares simply don’t warrant. This year we’ve seen some violent voter reactions to some administrations like that; it may have been first-past-the-post that got rid of some of those bad apples, but it was also first-past-the-post that put them there with lopsided, unwarranted majorities in the first place. As in so many things, prevention may be better than cure."
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    > @eristdoof said:
    > > @Cyclefree said:
    > > > @ExiledInScotland said:
    > > > If TM agrees a deal with Labour and then puts it to a whipped vote - any Tories that vote against it would lose the whip and be ineligible to vote in a leadership contest?
    > >
    > > Depends on whether they consider stopping a bad deal more important than keeping the whip. And if they lose the whip the Tories are no longer the government, are they? So May could be forced into keeping them as Tory MPs as the price for keeping the Tories in government.
    > >
    > > Party discipline seems to have completely broken down in the Tories. They are two parties masquerading as one.
    >
    > Only two?

    OK - at least two.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,812
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Have the Conservatives and Labour managed to agree to blame one another for the negotiations failing yet?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    I'm coming to the conclusion that Olly Robbins was the one backstop we had in terms of negotiating with the EU to get a halfway acceptable deal.

    The Tories on their own in this political negotiation look like they're going to give Corbyn everything he asks for.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,681

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Have the Conservatives and Labour managed to agree to blame one another for the negotiations failing yet?

    No, they are just working out what to call our membership of the customs union.

    I think they'll got for the comprehensive customs arrangement

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1125730218084376576
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Have the Conservatives and Labour managed to agree to blame one another for the negotiations failing yet?

    They're waiting for Prince Charles to sort it out.

    image
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    > @Pulpstar said:
    > > @TheScreamingEagles said:
    > > https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1125748194175008768
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > If we do end up remaining we should put statues of Mark Francois, Steve Baker, and other luminaries of the ERG.
    >
    > "Where do you want your statues, ERG ?"

    It'd be even more hilarious if the EU erected such outside the Berlaymont.
This discussion has been closed.