> @HYUFD said: > > @Foxy said: > > FWIW, Flavible politics have projected the results across England. Personally I would be a little surprised to see Harborough in Orange, but lets see. > > > > https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1124426510780305408?s=19 > > The LDs would gain Tunbridge Wells based on that map
Watford, Bedford, Eastleigh, and SW Herts. would be safe Lib Dem seats if people voted the same way at local and Parliamentary level.
Just a thought, which I am putting as a contrarian way of looking at the results of the locals.
Local councils, all over the UK are creaking as the austerity policy continues to restrict the money required to pay for the services that the councils are legally obliged to provide.
Already there has been one Conservative run council, Northampton, which has been put into special measures due to going effectively bankrupt. Many others are very close to similar situations.
Now, lots of these councils are going to be run by new inexperienced councillors, LibDems and Independents for the next 4 years.
I can remember talking to a friend, who many years ago got himself elected in a landslide, and the most important part of the conversation, was that even with a few previously elected party members as the leaders of the council, it still took him a couple of years to learn all the ins and outs of the system. All the while, the unelected officials ran riot.
It might suit the Tories and Labour to allow the new administrations to run. The newbies might just be able to do sort things out, but, I don't hold out much hope. The LibDems have been given a lot of rope and it will be interesting to see what they manage to do with it before they stand again for re-election.
> @Sean_F said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @Foxy said: > > > FWIW, Flavible politics have projected the results across England. Personally I would be a little surprised to see Harborough in Orange, but lets see. > > > > > > https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1124426510780305408?s=19 > > > > The LDs would gain Tunbridge Wells based on that map > > Watford, Bedford, Eastleigh, and SW Herts. would be safe Lib Dem seats if people voted the same way at local and Parliamentary level.
Yes, the LDs would hold the balance of power at the next general election if people voted the same way as they did in the locals this week at parliamentary level
> @HYUFD said: > > @Foxy said: > > FWIW, Flavible politics have projected the results across England. Personally I would be a little surprised to see Harborough in Orange, but lets see. > > > > https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1124426510780305408?s=19 > > The LDs would gain Tunbridge Wells based on that map. > > The Tories would win more seats in the Midlands than the South with the LDs making big inroads in the latter
Again, the turnout in the 2015 locals was 65%. Yesterday it was 36%.
The people who went on a vote strike (but voted when these seats were last contested on general election day 2015) were primarliy Tories and Labour. Anyone who thinks that will hold in a General and works out seats on that basis is making a bold assertion. Some might say it is bollocks.
I love the way this morning's discussion comes over as: "This is what would be best for the party!" rather than "This is what would be best for the country!"
That is exactly why we are in a mess and country is going down the toilet , both Tory and labour are only interested in their respective parties rather than what is good for the country.
It might suit the Tories and Labour to allow the new administrations to run. The newbies might just be able to do sort things out, but, I don't hold out much hope. The LibDems have been given a lot of rope and it will be interesting to see what they manage to do with it before they stand again for re-election.
There was a very infamous case in Wales of a chief executive who was under police investigation for, shall we say politely, creative accounting.
As a result of the scandal, the Labour council went out and Plaid came in on the back of a promise to do a cleanup.
The immediate result was to enormously strengthen the chief executive who was the only one who knew what the hell was going on. He went from running rings round the council to just running it. They even allowed him the latitude to act as a member of the council chamber.
There is no evidence of a significant voter strike. There is, however, abundant evidence of angry Tories furious that things aren’t going their way. Sad!
> @HYUFD said: > > @Foxy said: > > FWIW, Flavible politics have projected the results across England. Personally I would be a little surprised to see Harborough in Orange, but lets see. > > > > https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1124426510780305408?s=19 > > The LDs would gain Tunbridge Wells based on that map. > > The Tories would win more seats in the Midlands than the South with the LDs making big inroads in the latter
Completely ridiculous map, the LDs have no chance of over 70 seats on 19% which is their LE score which tends to be vastly above their GE score anyway. UKIP will get nowhere near 3%, if they even exist at the next GE they will stand in no more than a handful of seats, they have no money and no major backers. Other than that, fill your boots. I'm wondering if Brexit will stand down against the ERG to try and maximize no dealers in parliament.... might add a bit to any prospective Tory total
Completely ridiculous map, the LDs have no chance of over 70 seats on 19% which is their LE score which tends to be vastly above their GE score anyway. UKIP will get nowhere near 3%, if they even exist at the next GE they will stand in no more than a handful of seats, they have no money and no major backers. Other than that, fill your boots. I'm wondering if Brexit will stand down against the ERG to try and maximize no dealers in parliament.... might add a bit to any prospective Tory total
If local election results translated to national ones, Cannock Chase would be one of the safest Labour seats in the country, even though, delightfully, the bastards have lost their overall majority.
> @HYUFD said: > > @Sean_F said: > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @Foxy said: > > > > FWIW, Flavible politics have projected the results across England. Personally I would be a little surprised to see Harborough in Orange, but lets see. > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1124426510780305408?s=19 > > > > > > The LDs would gain Tunbridge Wells based on that map > > > > Watford, Bedford, Eastleigh, and SW Herts. would be safe Lib Dem seats if people voted the same way at local and Parliamentary level. > > Yes, the LDs would hold the balance of power at the next general election if people voted the same way as they did in the locals this week at parliamentary level
Surely the Lib Dems did well as the only available non Tory/Lab option in many areas. It seems unlikely to be any sudden enthusiasm for a party that has been invisible for 4 years.
> @AlastairMeeks said: > There is no evidence of a significant voter strike. There is, however, abundant evidence of angry Tories furious that things aren’t going their way. Sad!
Remain Tories are pissed off and voted LD. Easy summary of the LE Leave tories generally voted Tory but will have their say at the euros
> @ydoethur said: > Completely ridiculous map, the LDs have no chance of over 70 seats on 19% which is their LE score which tends to be vastly above their GE score anyway. UKIP will get nowhere near 3%, if they even exist at the next GE they will stand in no more than a handful of seats, they have no money and no major backers. Other than that, fill your boots. > I'm wondering if Brexit will stand down against the ERG to try and maximize no dealers in parliament.... might add a bit to any prospective Tory total > > If local election results translated to national ones, Cannock Chase would be one of the safest Labour seats in the country, even though, delightfully, the bastards have lost their overall majority. > > But they don't.
True enough! Although based on the LE I'll be betting on Con regain Canterbury next time
> @noneoftheabove said: > > @Morris_Dancer said: > > Mr. Roger, the European elections, if they happen, will be a good testing ground for assessing the state of play. > > It is curious how many leavers are eagerly looking at the European elections to see what proportion of the current electorate support Brexit. If that is so important why not just ask the electorate what they want directly? I thought the views of the 2016 cohort were sacrosanct?
Is there any way on this new format of knowing who said what? I just read this three times thinking Morris Dancer must have undergone a political transformation until I realised I might be reading the arrows wrongly
> @houndtang said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > @Sean_F said: > > > > @HYUFD said: > > > > > @Foxy said: > > > > > FWIW, Flavible politics have projected the results across England. Personally I would be a little surprised to see Harborough in Orange, but lets see. > > > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1124426510780305408?s=19 > > > > > > > > The LDs would gain Tunbridge Wells based on that map > > > > > > Watford, Bedford, Eastleigh, and SW Herts. would be safe Lib Dem seats if people voted the same way at local and Parliamentary level. > > > > Yes, the LDs would hold the balance of power at the next general election if people voted the same way as they did in the locals this week at parliamentary level > > Surely the Lib Dems did well as the only available non Tory/Lab option in many areas. It seems unlikely to be any sudden enthusiasm for a party that has been invisible for 4 years.
Precisely. They did 1% better than 2017 when they went on to score nada in the GE They are on track perhaps for 20 to 25 seats. Modest recovery but enough to screw the Tories
If May goes for a customs union then the Conservative vote is going to suffer a fate like the Federation at Wolf 359.
Things can almost always get worse. Grasping onto anything and calling it a 'deal' is not necessarily in the interest of either the country or the Conservative Party.
That could be true, but as has been noted the Tories are going to get smashed in the euros anyway so the key is not to avoid that but to make the best choice for the country out of the bad options available
Now, many may not think a compromise such as is proposed would be the best option available. But just because they will indeed be punished doesnt mean it is a bad idea. Frankly if our main parties are able to agree something together I might vote Tory or labour just to encourage them to work together more.
I love the way this morning's discussion comes over as: "This is what would be best for the party!" rather than "This is what would be best for the country!"
That is exactly why we are in a mess and country is going down the toilet , both Tory and labour are only interested in their respective parties rather than what is good for the country.
Only they do that though? Does anyone believe that?
Passing a deal has universally been overestimated each time. As these reactions show, theres no reason those opposed to one will change their minds now .
I love the way this morning's discussion comes over as: "This is what would be best for the party!" rather than "This is what would be best for the country!"
That is exactly why we are in a mess and country is going down the toilet , both Tory and labour are only interested in their respective parties rather than what is good for the country.
Only they do that though? Does anyone believe that?
Did anyone ever find out the real reason for the creation of Police Scotland? Or are we just left with the highly unconvincing public statements about greater accountability and flexibility leading to an improved service?
> @Morris_Dancer said: > Mr. Above, the media narrative has been to use the votes for the party that did, relatively, best to determine the public's position on the EU. > > It seems natural that such will happen for the European elections. > > Mr. Eagles, that is true. But the Borg were not defeated, and the Conservatives do not have the crew of the starship Enterprise to help. They don't even have the crew of Red Dwarf.
I agree it is equally pointless trying to draw out exactly how brexity the local elections were - we all know the country is roughly split down the middle and has been for the last few years, and will be after the Euro elections too. Just find it curious that leavers see the current public split relevant when they are so hostile on the 2nd referendum.
I am not particularly in favour of a 2nd referendum, it might be needed if literally nothing can get through parliament though.
> @Morris_Dancer said: > If May goes for a customs union then the Conservative vote is going to suffer a fate like the Federation at Wolf 359. > > Things can almost always get worse. Grasping onto anything and calling it a 'deal' is not necessarily in the interest of either the country or the Conservative Party.
Are you still an advocate of Liam Fox trade deals ?
It seems some people don't learn from experience ...
Mr. Richard, politicians come and go. Domestic laws and international treaties last longer. Focusing on Liam Fox as an arbiter of how the nation should position itself for decades, perhaps centuries, to come is not wise, I think.
> Passing a deal has universally been overestimated each time. As these reactions show, theres no reason those opposed to one will change their minds now .
A deal won’t command a majority just because Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn want one. I can’t see them agreeing on one anyway.
There is more chance of me being on the first manned flight to Mars than Jezza actually signing up to a deal.
I would welcome any kind of explanation from the Corbynites as to why year after year Labour lose local council seats under Jeremy Corbyn. To misquote a prominent Labour supporter, just because they’re going backwards doesn’t mean you’re going forwards.
> @Jonathan said: > > @Roger said: > > > @Jonathan said: > > > > @brokenwheel said: > > > > > @TheJezziah said: > > > > > I feel it is becoming a nice tradition where after every election people who never wanted Corbyn to become Labour leader demand he stands down as Labour leader. > > > > > > > > > > Now if a challenger wishes to step up that is a different matter, won't be holding my breath though. > > > > > > > > That’s a load of old rubbish. After May 17 no one said Corbyn should go, because he did well. But when he screws up, like he did this week and in the 2016 referendum, people are entitled to criticise him. > > > > > > > > What is worrying today, is that on the basis of these results Labour will not win next time and that Corbyn supporters seem in denial of that. Wake up before it’s too late! > > > > > > > > However you have the same problem as the Tories. Who will take his place? Will they be able to keep Labour together? What happens when Corbynism ends? > > > > > > My preference now would be a shadow cabinet reshuffle that that saw a balanced cabinet. Corbyn can go when he wants to, he has reach with some people. > > > > Surely Corbyn is no less dead in the water than May? They both look like anachronisms. > > If you make this about Corbyn, the cult will close ranks and nothing will change. Labour needs to change. So leave him in place, but find other ways to broaden appeal and move forward.
I think that's flying pigs territory. If anything positive can be said about Corbyn it's that with the support of barely 15% of his MPs and 85% actively opposed he's managed to transform the party into his image. The man has the leadership qualities of Napoleon. Wishing him to be more inclusive isn't going to make it happen
It's just a thought, but if Corbyn doesn't want people to call on him to resign because he keeps losing elections, maybe he should start winning some.
You cannot protest against the system if you win and become the system.
Hard to believe hes been Loto for nearly 4 years. Like him or hate him he seems like a regular member of the political class now.
'Now?!!!' He always was. He just pretended otherwise.
I added regular to allow the distinction that he was an unconventional member in so e ways but yes definitely still a member.
But my point was I don't know how even those who adore him could protest at the idea he is a member of the political class now, and one who uses all the same tactics as any other.
> > FWIW, Flavible politics have projected the results across England. Personally I would be a little surprised to see Harborough in Orange, but lets see.
> The LDs would gain Tunbridge Wells based on that map.
>
> The Tories would win more seats in the Midlands than the South with the LDs making big inroads in the latter
Again, the turnout in the 2015 locals was 65%. Yesterday it was 36%.
The people who went on a vote strike (but voted when these seats were last contested on general election day 2015) were primarliy Tories and Labour. Anyone who thinks that will hold in a General and works out seats on that basis is making a bold assertion. Some might say it is bollocks.
There is no evidence of either vote strike or mass spoiling of ballots, and the idea that hard leavers voted LD/Green to speed up Brexit is risible. I see the LDs did well on your patch.
The 2015 Locals were a GE year, the comparison is stand alone Locals.
> > Otherwise, the more moderate and accommodating ones like Chuka and Heidi will probably end up in the LibDems, with the more tribal ones retiring or fading away.
>
> It's a bit of a long shot but maybe Heidi Allen could hold her seat as a LibDem:
>
> General Election 2017: South Cambridgeshire
> Party Candidate Votes % ±
> Conservative Heidi Allen 33,631 51.8 +0.7
> Labour Dan Greef 17,679 27.2 +9.6
> Liberal Democrat Susan van de Ven 12,102 18.6 +3.4
> Start with coalition-fade general LD recovery to get to say 15,000, then take another 3000 Remainiacs from Lab to make 18,000, so you need 8000 from Con in a combination of personal vote and Tory Remainer. That's a big number, but per the petition signatures it's an *extremely* remainy constituency.
>
> OTOH if she has to run as CHUK then it seems pretty much impossible unless the LibDems generously decided to stand down in her favour.
Heidi has a very poor reputation with local Lib Dems, who won the local council in spectacular fashion last year. This is, in psrt, due to her election strategy which mostly consisted of wearing low cut blouses.
Instead of slightly misogynistic (and IMV incorrect) comments, you might want to ask why the local Lib Dems couldn't put up someone better than Dan Greef. He wasn't exactly inspiring.
> Passing a deal has universally been overestimated each time. As these reactions show, theres no reason those opposed to one will change their minds now .
A deal won’t command a majority just because Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn want one. I can’t see them agreeing on one anyway.
Nor can I. I'm surprised they've still talked this long but ultimately I just don't see how it is in their personal interests to do so. I can see the Tories being desperate enough to try harder for one but particularly in advance of the euros labour have no reason to.
Any further talk about needing to get things done us just reaction to the locals and as far as action will go. Like the supposed labour leaver mps talking a good game is all that will happen
Can I recommend everyone take a look at the flavible map (I assume it's accurate!)
Strangely whilst being seen as the party of remain, Lib Dems are breaking through in some areas that were quite pro-leave. Labour remaining (no pun intended) quite strong in the cities. Why is this if it is the cities that are the bedrock of remain voters? Is it a question of vote splits - Lib Dems benefitting from areas where there is no strong Labour tradition and so no split remain vote?
My concern is that it may be something to do with ethnicity. The Lib Dems are a possibility for white voters who don't like the Tories but BME voters are solidly Labour.
> @Foxy said: > > @HYUFD said: > > > > @Foxy said: > > > > FWIW, Flavible politics have projected the results across England. Personally I would be a little surprised to see Harborough in Orange, but lets see. > > > > > > > > https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1124426510780305408 > > > > > > > > The LDs would gain Tunbridge Wells based on that map. > > > > > > The Tories would win more seats in the Midlands than the South with the LDs making big inroads in the latter > > > > Again, the turnout in the 2015 locals was 65%. Yesterday it was 36%. > > > > The people who went on a vote strike (but voted when these seats were last contested on general election day 2015) were primarliy Tories and Labour. Anyone who thinks that will hold in a General and works out seats on that basis is making a bold assertion. Some might say it is bollocks. > > There is no evidence of either vote strike or mass spoiling of ballots, and the idea that hard leavers voted LD/Green to speed up Brexit is risible. I see the LDs did well on your patch. > > The 2015 Locals were a GE year, the comparison is stand alone Locals. > > https://twitter.com/JXB101/status/1124236304768741376
Remainers came out which is why the LDs and Greens did well and hit the Tories and Labour but Leavers mainly stayed home or if they did turn out plenty of them voted Independent and some even scrawled 'BREXIT' on the ballot paper.
Leavers will come out to vote for the Brexit Party in the European Parliament elections and have their own chance to hit the Tories and Labour then.
The European elections could ironically have their highest turnout ever as it becomes a proxy EUref2. Yougov is already predicting a 47% turnout for the European elections based on those certain to vote
Nor can I. I'm surprised they've still talked this long but ultimately I just don't see how it is in their personal interests to do so. I can see the Tories being desperate enough to try harder for one but particularly in advance of the euros labour have no reason to.
There is no political benefit to Labour in agreeing a deal. If we were staring down the muzzle of a GE there would be but we aren't.
@AlastairMeeks Both front benches whipping for something or other would surely have a fair chance though ?
Even then I'd not be sure. I think itd squeak last at best as I think the Tory loyalists would be lower than the number who initially voted for the deal, more resignations for starters, and so many labour mps just will not back anything that does not lead to remain.
Could either leader really try to bring something which they could only rely on maybe half their mps to vote for? Theyd have royally pissed off their parties for no reason if the other could not deliver the promised votes.
A compromise is too risky for Corbyn and May lacks the authority to deliver on a compromise.
Youd think accepting a referendum on the May deal might squeak through but why not before now if that would not break the Tories in particular?
> @AlastairMeeks said: > > @Pulpstar said: > > @AlastairMeeks Both front benches whipping for something or other would surely have a fair chance though ? > > Really? The Conservative rebellion would be much bigger than MV1 because it would be markedly softer. > > The only way I see it getting through is if a referendum is a condition, bringing enough Labour MPs on board.
No, the non ERG wingnut Tories want the hell out of this now, any deal will pass if labour agree, the MV rebellion was more about the WA than anything and theres no way around it
> @FrankBooth said: > Can I recommend everyone take a look at the flavible map (I assume it's accurate!) > > Strangely whilst being seen as the party of remain, Lib Dems are breaking through in some areas that were quite pro-leave. Labour remaining (no pun intended) quite strong in the cities. Why is this if it is the cities that are the bedrock of remain voters? Is it a question of vote splits - Lib Dems benefitting from areas where there is no strong Labour tradition and so no split remain vote? > > My concern is that it may be something to do with ethnicity. The Lib Dems are a possibility for white voters who don't like the Tories but BME voters are solidly Labour.
Voting is racist? Mind you, LDs are famously pale Male and stale
Corbyn and McDonnell both said yesterday the results showed a Brexit Deal must be done, Labour Remainers will be disappointed if they think Corbyn is ever going to back EUref2 let alone even consider revoking Brexit
If the Conservatives do go for a customs union to avoid the electoral beating at the European elections, I suspect that'll lead to them suffering a far more significant defeat at the next General Election. Angry Leavers won't forget, they'll just deliver their message at a later, and more important, electoral opportunity.
Now, it might be that vague and fuzzy centrists with no strong views either way are just glad the matter's resolved. But they're also less likely to vote on EU reasons generally anyway, whereas an anti-customs union backlash is all but guaranteed.
Interesting to also consider the impact upon Labour.
> @AlastairMeeks said: > > @Pulpstar said: > > @AlastairMeeks Both front benches whipping for something or other would surely have a fair chance though ? > > Really? The Conservative rebellion would be much bigger than MV1 because it would be markedly softer. > > The only way I see it getting through is if a referendum is a condition, bringing enough Labour MPs on board.
The customs union option Ken Clarke put forwards got 273 votes in favour and 276 against. That sounds pretty close to the mooted deal.
If May whipped in favour, I would expect she could at least get the votes of Remainer government colleagues like Hunt, Hammond, Hancock etc. who all abstained last time and possibly even some of the Leavers in her government.
I love the way this morning's discussion comes over as: "This is what would be best for the party!" rather than "This is what would be best for the country!"
That is exactly why we are in a mess and country is going down the toilet , both Tory and labour are only interested in their respective parties rather than what is good for the country.
Only they do that though? Does anyone believe that?
Did anyone ever find out the real reason for the creation of Police Scotland? Or are we just left with the highly unconvincing public statements about greater accountability and flexibility leading to an improved service?
It was to have better service and save money, pathetic that they were split into so many small forces. They also should be looking at why we have 32 bloodsucking local authorities. No excuse for a small country like Scotland to have multiple small forces duplicating everything , using different systems, wasting money etc. Given we have to pay for Crossrail and all other London and southeast infrastructure we have little enough money left to waste. We cannot even manage a motorway between our two major cities.
> @Morris_Dancer said: > If the Conservatives do go for a customs union to avoid the electoral beating at the European elections, I suspect that'll lead to them suffering a far more significant defeat at the next General Election. Angry Leavers won't forget, they'll just deliver their message at a later, and more important, electoral opportunity.
OTOH a customs union is the only way to get through the coming EU negotiations without the DUP bringing down their government, so there's something to be said for doing it sooner rather than later, especially if they get to blame it on Labour.
If the Conservatives do go for a customs union to avoid the electoral beating at the European elections, I suspect that'll lead to them suffering a far more significant defeat at the next General Election. Angry Leavers won't forget, they'll just deliver their message at a later, and more important, electoral opportunity.
Now, it might be that vague and fuzzy centrists with no strong views either way are just glad the matter's resolved. But they're also less likely to vote on EU reasons generally anyway, whereas an anti-customs union backlash is all but guaranteed.
Interesting to also consider the impact upon Labour.
And if we end up remaining how will the Tories do then?
You're right that fuzzy centrists might mistake their own relief at a resolution as being shared more widely than it is, but no Brexit is not an unreal threat and while there are plenty who will say leaving in a CU is not worth it, am I really to believe that the impact would be worse than not leaving at all? Because if it is a referendum we have a high chance of no Brexit, and given no deal will be resisted by parliament the options for leave are not good.
> @Morris_Dancer said: > Mr. Richard, politicians come and go. Domestic laws and international treaties last longer. Focusing on Liam Fox as an arbiter of how the nation should position itself for decades, perhaps centuries, to come is not wise, I think.
Trade treaties are international treaties as well.
And as Liam Fox is the man negotiating the trade treaties it is very wise to focus on him.
This is real world Morris, you need to deal with it.
Corbyn and McDonnell both said yesterday the results showed a Brexit Deal must be done, Labour Remainers will be disappointed if they think Corbyn is ever going to back EUref2 let alone even consider revoking Brexit
The indicative votes were indicative, many more Tories would vote aye if whipped. Theres a difference between 'not my first choice' and 'over my twitching corpse'
As he notes it's the lack of agenda and Brexit non delivery which risks PM Corbyn. So that conversation should be with all the party not just the PM since unless the next PM can pass something the situation doesnt change.
> @Dura_Ace said: > Nor can I. I'm surprised they've still talked this long but ultimately I just don't see how it is in their personal interests to do so. I can see the Tories being desperate enough to try harder for one but particularly in advance of the euros labour have no reason to. > > > There is no political benefit to Labour in agreeing a deal. If we were staring down the muzzle of a GE there would be but we aren't.
Labour agreeing a deal to bail out the Tories will destroy them with both Remainers and with those who are obsessively anti Tory.
Indeed the destruction of both the Tories and Corbyn looks to be the real Brexit dividend!
> @FrankBooth said: > Can I recommend everyone take a look at the flavible map (I assume it's accurate!) > > Strangely whilst being seen as the party of remain, Lib Dems are breaking through in some areas that were quite pro-leave. Labour remaining (no pun intended) quite strong in the cities. Why is this if it is the cities that are the bedrock of remain voters? Is it a question of vote splits - Lib Dems benefitting from areas where there is no strong Labour tradition and so no split remain vote? > > My concern is that it may be something to do with ethnicity. The Lib Dems are a possibility for white voters who don't like the Tories but BME voters are solidly Labour.
A very interesting question. A bit of the answer may be in social history and attitudes. I think that the Liberals/LDs were in general a party seen as the alternative to the Conservatives, rather than the alternative to Labour. There was - maybe still is - a time when there were huge numbers of seats where Cons came first and LDs second, but almost none going Lab first and LD second. Protesting Labour voters have rarely looked to the Liberals. The Liberal image remains, however unfairly, leafy thoughtful suburb, safe posh old town, professionals flagging up their conscience rather than 'worker in Sunderland car plant.'
Christ, its worse than I thought then. Another reason not to make a deal - why split your party down the middle for a plan which might not pass the commons even then and might not be accepted by the EU even if it does?
I can see why the EU dont expect us to agree anything. Although that does suggest the should have listened to Macron last time
I don’t accept the premise that people were voting Lib Dem for the local council because they want to remain in the EU, but if we were to, we need to know the policy of all the independents who won seats before claiming this shows a Remain rampage don’t we?
As he notes it's the lack of agenda and Brexit non delivery which risks PM Corbyn. So that conversation should be with all the party not just the PM since unless the next PM can pass something the situation doesnt change.
People seem to talk about the Tories not having much in the way of domestic policies like it's a bad thing, except pretty much every policy May has come up with is a total train-wreck.
Looking at the bollocks most of the contenders come out with I doubt it's going to get any better.
> @Morris_Dancer said: > If the Conservatives do go for a customs union to avoid the electoral beating at the European elections, I suspect that'll lead to them suffering a far more significant defeat at the next General Election. Angry Leavers won't forget, they'll just deliver their message at a later, and more important, electoral opportunity. > > Now, it might be that vague and fuzzy centrists with no strong views either way are just glad the matter's resolved. But they're also less likely to vote on EU reasons generally anyway, whereas an anti-customs union backlash is all but guaranteed. > > Interesting to also consider the impact upon Labour.
The number of people in the real world, as opposed to those who spend all day on niche websites, who are bothered about trade policy is fecking minimal.
Do you not understand why Leave focused on immigration and the NHS and kept the 'Go Global' fanatics out of the spotlight ?
> @Morris_Dancer said: > If the Conservatives do go for a customs union to avoid the electoral beating at the European elections, I suspect that'll lead to them suffering a far more significant defeat at the next General Election. Angry Leavers won't forget, they'll just deliver their message at a later, and more important, electoral opportunity. > > Now, it might be that vague and fuzzy centrists with no strong views either way are just glad the matter's resolved. But they're also less likely to vote on EU reasons generally anyway, whereas an anti-customs union backlash is all but guaranteed. > > Interesting to also consider the impact upon Labour.
Labour will also get a backlash from Brexit with a Customs Union without EUref2 attached so it would hit both main parties but the real anger from Leavers is we are still in the EU it is the obsessives who care about a Customs Union (We could still do Deals on services anyway)
If the Conservatives do go for a customs union to avoid the electoral beating at the European elections, I suspect that'll lead to them suffering a far more significant defeat at the next General Election. Angry Leavers won't forget, they'll just deliver their message at a later, and more important, electoral opportunity.
About 1% of leavers know of or understand what a customs union/arrangement is.
I have "produced" that statistic in the manner of Rory Stewart.
Comments
> > @Foxy said:
> > FWIW, Flavible politics have projected the results across England. Personally I would be a little surprised to see Harborough in Orange, but lets see.
> >
> > https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1124426510780305408?s=19
>
> The LDs would gain Tunbridge Wells based on that map
Watford, Bedford, Eastleigh, and SW Herts. would be safe Lib Dem seats if people voted the same way at local and Parliamentary level.
Local councils, all over the UK are creaking as the austerity policy continues to restrict the money required to pay for the services that the councils are legally obliged to provide.
Already there has been one Conservative run council, Northampton, which has been put into special measures due to going effectively bankrupt. Many others are very close to similar situations.
Now, lots of these councils are going to be run by new inexperienced councillors, LibDems and Independents for the next 4 years.
I can remember talking to a friend, who many years ago got himself elected in a landslide, and the most important part of the conversation, was that even with a few previously elected party members as the leaders of the council, it still took him a couple of years to learn all the ins and outs of the system. All the while, the unelected officials ran riot.
It might suit the Tories and Labour to allow the new administrations to run. The newbies might just be able to do sort things out, but, I don't hold out much hope. The LibDems have been given a lot of rope and it will be interesting to see what they manage to do with it before they stand again for re-election.
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Foxy said:
> > > FWIW, Flavible politics have projected the results across England. Personally I would be a little surprised to see Harborough in Orange, but lets see.
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1124426510780305408?s=19
> >
> > The LDs would gain Tunbridge Wells based on that map
>
> Watford, Bedford, Eastleigh, and SW Herts. would be safe Lib Dem seats if people voted the same way at local and Parliamentary level.
Yes, the LDs would hold the balance of power at the next general election if people voted the same way as they did in the locals this week at parliamentary level
> > @Foxy said:
> > FWIW, Flavible politics have projected the results across England. Personally I would be a little surprised to see Harborough in Orange, but lets see.
> >
> > https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1124426510780305408?s=19
>
> The LDs would gain Tunbridge Wells based on that map.
>
> The Tories would win more seats in the Midlands than the South with the LDs making big inroads in the latter
Again, the turnout in the 2015 locals was 65%. Yesterday it was 36%.
The people who went on a vote strike (but voted when these seats were last contested on general election day 2015) were primarliy Tories and Labour. Anyone who thinks that will hold in a General and works out seats on that basis is making a bold assertion. Some might say it is bollocks.
As a result of the scandal, the Labour council went out and Plaid came in on the back of a promise to do a cleanup.
The immediate result was to enormously strengthen the chief executive who was the only one who knew what the hell was going on. He went from running rings round the council to just running it. They even allowed him the latitude to act as a member of the council chamber.
That was eight years ago. He's still there.
> > @Foxy said:
> > FWIW, Flavible politics have projected the results across England. Personally I would be a little surprised to see Harborough in Orange, but lets see.
> >
> > https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1124426510780305408?s=19
>
> The LDs would gain Tunbridge Wells based on that map.
>
> The Tories would win more seats in the Midlands than the South with the LDs making big inroads in the latter
Completely ridiculous map, the LDs have no chance of over 70 seats on 19% which is their LE score which tends to be vastly above their GE score anyway. UKIP will get nowhere near 3%, if they even exist at the next GE they will stand in no more than a handful of seats, they have no money and no major backers. Other than that, fill your boots.
I'm wondering if Brexit will stand down against the ERG to try and maximize no dealers in parliament.... might add a bit to any prospective Tory total
Not that it helps a deal pass, and it would be nice if we had a long term strategy, but the long term can wait or be changed.
But they don't.
> > @Sean_F said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @Foxy said:
> > > > FWIW, Flavible politics have projected the results across England. Personally I would be a little surprised to see Harborough in Orange, but lets see.
> > > >
> > > > https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1124426510780305408?s=19
> > >
> > > The LDs would gain Tunbridge Wells based on that map
> >
> > Watford, Bedford, Eastleigh, and SW Herts. would be safe Lib Dem seats if people voted the same way at local and Parliamentary level.
>
> Yes, the LDs would hold the balance of power at the next general election if people voted the same way as they did in the locals this week at parliamentary level
Surely the Lib Dems did well as the only available non Tory/Lab option in many areas. It seems unlikely to be any sudden enthusiasm for a party that has been invisible for 4 years.
> There is no evidence of a significant voter strike. There is, however, abundant evidence of angry Tories furious that things aren’t going their way. Sad!
Remain Tories are pissed off and voted LD. Easy summary of the LE
Leave tories generally voted Tory but will have their say at the euros
> Completely ridiculous map, the LDs have no chance of over 70 seats on 19% which is their LE score which tends to be vastly above their GE score anyway. UKIP will get nowhere near 3%, if they even exist at the next GE they will stand in no more than a handful of seats, they have no money and no major backers. Other than that, fill your boots.
> I'm wondering if Brexit will stand down against the ERG to try and maximize no dealers in parliament.... might add a bit to any prospective Tory total
>
> If local election results translated to national ones, Cannock Chase would be one of the safest Labour seats in the country, even though, delightfully, the bastards have lost their overall majority.
>
> But they don't.
True enough! Although based on the LE I'll be betting on Con regain Canterbury next time
> > @Morris_Dancer said:
> > Mr. Roger, the European elections, if they happen, will be a good testing ground for assessing the state of play.
>
> It is curious how many leavers are eagerly looking at the European elections to see what proportion of the current electorate support Brexit. If that is so important why not just ask the electorate what they want directly? I thought the views of the 2016 cohort were sacrosanct?
Is there any way on this new format of knowing who said what? I just read this three times thinking Morris Dancer must have undergone a political transformation until I realised I might be reading the arrows wrongly
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Sean_F said:
> > > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > > @Foxy said:
> > > > > FWIW, Flavible politics have projected the results across England. Personally I would be a little surprised to see Harborough in Orange, but lets see.
> > > > >
> > > > > https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1124426510780305408?s=19
> > > >
> > > > The LDs would gain Tunbridge Wells based on that map
> > >
> > > Watford, Bedford, Eastleigh, and SW Herts. would be safe Lib Dem seats if people voted the same way at local and Parliamentary level.
> >
> > Yes, the LDs would hold the balance of power at the next general election if people voted the same way as they did in the locals this week at parliamentary level
>
> Surely the Lib Dems did well as the only available non Tory/Lab option in many areas. It seems unlikely to be any sudden enthusiasm for a party that has been invisible for 4 years.
Precisely. They did 1% better than 2017 when they went on to score nada in the GE
They are on track perhaps for 20 to 25 seats. Modest recovery but enough to screw the Tories
Now, many may not think a compromise such as is proposed would be the best option available. But just because they will indeed be punished doesnt mean it is a bad idea. Frankly if our main parties are able to agree something together I might vote Tory or labour just to encourage them to work together more.
> https://twitter.com/mikegalsworthy/status/1124579038864056320
Hes forgetting ICHC plus 400%. It's the NHS, stupid
> Mr. Above, the media narrative has been to use the votes for the party that did, relatively, best to determine the public's position on the EU.
>
> It seems natural that such will happen for the European elections.
>
> Mr. Eagles, that is true. But the Borg were not defeated, and the Conservatives do not have the crew of the starship Enterprise to help. They don't even have the crew of Red Dwarf.
I agree it is equally pointless trying to draw out exactly how brexity the local elections were - we all know the country is roughly split down the middle and has been for the last few years, and will be after the Euro elections too. Just find it curious that leavers see the current public split relevant when they are so hostile on the 2nd referendum.
I am not particularly in favour of a 2nd referendum, it might be needed if literally nothing can get through parliament though.
> If May goes for a customs union then the Conservative vote is going to suffer a fate like the Federation at Wolf 359.
>
> Things can almost always get worse. Grasping onto anything and calling it a 'deal' is not necessarily in the interest of either the country or the Conservative Party.
Are you still an advocate of Liam Fox trade deals ?
It seems some people don't learn from experience ...
> https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1124587737158385664
>
>
>
> Passing a deal has universally been overestimated each time. As these reactions show, theres no reason those opposed to one will change their minds now .
A deal won’t command a majority just because Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn want one. I can’t see them agreeing on one anyway.
> https://twitter.com/evolvepolitics/status/1124403564695248897
I would welcome any kind of explanation from the Corbynites as to why year after year Labour lose local council seats under Jeremy Corbyn. To misquote a prominent Labour supporter, just because they’re going backwards doesn’t mean you’re going forwards.
> > @Roger said:
> > > @Jonathan said:
> > > > @brokenwheel said:
> > > > > @TheJezziah said:
> > > > > I feel it is becoming a nice tradition where after every election people who never wanted Corbyn to become Labour leader demand he stands down as Labour leader.
> > > > >
> > > > > Now if a challenger wishes to step up that is a different matter, won't be holding my breath though.
> > > >
> > > > That’s a load of old rubbish. After May 17 no one said Corbyn should go, because he did well. But when he screws up, like he did this week and in the 2016 referendum, people are entitled to criticise him.
> > > >
> > > > What is worrying today, is that on the basis of these results Labour will not win next time and that Corbyn supporters seem in denial of that. Wake up before it’s too late!
> > > >
> > > > However you have the same problem as the Tories. Who will take his place? Will they be able to keep Labour together? What happens when Corbynism ends?
> > >
> > > My preference now would be a shadow cabinet reshuffle that that saw a balanced cabinet. Corbyn can go when he wants to, he has reach with some people.
> >
> > Surely Corbyn is no less dead in the water than May? They both look like anachronisms.
>
> If you make this about Corbyn, the cult will close ranks and nothing will change. Labour needs to change. So leave him in place, but find other ways to broaden appeal and move forward.
I think that's flying pigs territory. If anything positive can be said about Corbyn it's that with the support of barely 15% of his MPs and 85% actively opposed he's managed to transform the party into his image. The man has the leadership qualities of Napoleon. Wishing him to be more inclusive isn't going to make it happen
But my point was I don't know how even those who adore him could protest at the idea he is a member of the political class now, and one who uses all the same tactics as any other.
> @AlastairMeeks Both front benches whipping for something or other would surely have a fair chance though ?
Really? The Conservative rebellion would be much bigger than MV1 because it would be markedly softer.
The only way I see it getting through is if a referendum is a condition, bringing enough Labour MPs on board.
The 2015 Locals were a GE year, the comparison is stand alone Locals.
https://twitter.com/JXB101/status/1124236304768741376?s=19
Any further talk about needing to get things done us just reaction to the locals and as far as action will go. Like the supposed labour leaver mps talking a good game is all that will happen
It really is time for her to retire gracefully:
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1124586652427591680
Strangely whilst being seen as the party of remain, Lib Dems are breaking through in some areas that were quite pro-leave. Labour remaining (no pun intended) quite strong in the cities. Why is this if it is the cities that are the bedrock of remain voters? Is it a question of vote splits - Lib Dems benefitting from areas where there is no strong Labour tradition and so no split remain vote?
My concern is that it may be something to do with ethnicity. The Lib Dems are a possibility for white voters who don't like the Tories but BME voters are solidly Labour.
> > @HYUFD said:
>
> > > @Foxy said:
>
> > > FWIW, Flavible politics have projected the results across England. Personally I would be a little surprised to see Harborough in Orange, but lets see.
>
> > >
>
> > > https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1124426510780305408
>
>
>
> >
>
> > The LDs would gain Tunbridge Wells based on that map.
>
> >
>
> > The Tories would win more seats in the Midlands than the South with the LDs making big inroads in the latter
>
>
>
> Again, the turnout in the 2015 locals was 65%. Yesterday it was 36%.
>
>
>
> The people who went on a vote strike (but voted when these seats were last contested on general election day 2015) were primarliy Tories and Labour. Anyone who thinks that will hold in a General and works out seats on that basis is making a bold assertion. Some might say it is bollocks.
>
> There is no evidence of either vote strike or mass spoiling of ballots, and the idea that hard leavers voted LD/Green to speed up Brexit is risible. I see the LDs did well on your patch.
>
> The 2015 Locals were a GE year, the comparison is stand alone Locals.
>
> https://twitter.com/JXB101/status/1124236304768741376
Remainers came out which is why the LDs and Greens did well and hit the Tories and Labour but Leavers mainly stayed home or if they did turn out plenty of them voted Independent and some even scrawled 'BREXIT' on the ballot paper.
Leavers will come out to vote for the Brexit Party in the European Parliament elections and have their own chance to hit the Tories and Labour then.
The European elections could ironically have their highest turnout ever as it becomes a proxy EUref2. Yougov is already predicting a 47% turnout for the European elections based on those certain to vote
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/05/02/european-parliament-voting-intention-brex-30-lab-2
> https://twitter.com/evolvepolitics/status/1124403564695248897
Are we allowed to know what that strategy was or did he just type it when he was pissed?
DUP 130
Sinn Féin 105
UUP 88
SDLP 66
Alliance 32
Ind 18
TUV 13
PUP 4
Green 1
UKIP 1
Could either leader really try to bring something which they could only rely on maybe half their mps to vote for? Theyd have royally pissed off their parties for no reason if the other could not deliver the promised votes.
A compromise is too risky for Corbyn and May lacks the authority to deliver on a compromise.
Youd think accepting a referendum on the
May deal might squeak through but why not before now if that would not break the Tories in particular?
> > @Pulpstar said:
> > @AlastairMeeks Both front benches whipping for something or other would surely have a fair chance though ?
>
> Really? The Conservative rebellion would be much bigger than MV1 because it would be markedly softer.
>
> The only way I see it getting through is if a referendum is a condition, bringing enough Labour MPs on board.
No, the non ERG wingnut Tories want the hell out of this now, any deal will pass if labour agree, the MV rebellion was more about the WA than anything and theres no way around it
> Can I recommend everyone take a look at the flavible map (I assume it's accurate!)
>
> Strangely whilst being seen as the party of remain, Lib Dems are breaking through in some areas that were quite pro-leave. Labour remaining (no pun intended) quite strong in the cities. Why is this if it is the cities that are the bedrock of remain voters? Is it a question of vote splits - Lib Dems benefitting from areas where there is no strong Labour tradition and so no split remain vote?
>
> My concern is that it may be something to do with ethnicity. The Lib Dems are a possibility for white voters who don't like the Tories but BME voters are solidly Labour.
Voting is racist?
Mind you, LDs are famously pale Male and stale
> Funnily enough, May is so deluded, she actually thinks Jezza will do a deal.
>
> It really is time for her to retire gracefully:
>
> https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1124586652427591680
Corbyn and McDonnell both said yesterday the results showed a Brexit Deal must be done, Labour Remainers will be disappointed if they think Corbyn is ever going to back EUref2 let alone even consider revoking Brexit
https://twitter.com/johnmcdonnellMP/status/1124210656146862080?s=20
Now, it might be that vague and fuzzy centrists with no strong views either way are just glad the matter's resolved. But they're also less likely to vote on EU reasons generally anyway, whereas an anti-customs union backlash is all but guaranteed.
Interesting to also consider the impact upon Labour.
> > @Pulpstar said:
> > @AlastairMeeks Both front benches whipping for something or other would surely have a fair chance though ?
>
> Really? The Conservative rebellion would be much bigger than MV1 because it would be markedly softer.
>
> The only way I see it getting through is if a referendum is a condition, bringing enough Labour MPs on board.
The customs union option Ken Clarke put forwards got 273 votes in favour and 276 against. That sounds pretty close to the mooted deal.
If May whipped in favour, I would expect she could at least get the votes of Remainer government colleagues like Hunt, Hammond, Hancock etc. who all abstained last time and possibly even some of the Leavers in her government.
I think it would be a very close vote.
No excuse for a small country like Scotland to have multiple small forces duplicating everything , using different systems, wasting money etc.
Given we have to pay for Crossrail and all other London and southeast infrastructure we have little enough money left to waste. We cannot even manage a motorway between our two major cities.
> If the Conservatives do go for a customs union to avoid the electoral beating at the European elections, I suspect that'll lead to them suffering a far more significant defeat at the next General Election. Angry Leavers won't forget, they'll just deliver their message at a later, and more important, electoral opportunity.
OTOH a customs union is the only way to get through the coming EU negotiations without the DUP bringing down their government, so there's something to be said for doing it sooner rather than later, especially if they get to blame it on Labour.
You're right that fuzzy centrists might mistake their own relief at a resolution as being shared more widely than it is, but no Brexit is not an unreal threat and while there are plenty who will say leaving in a CU is not worth it, am I really to believe that the impact would be worse than not leaving at all? Because if it is a referendum we have a high chance of no Brexit, and given no deal will be resisted by parliament the options for leave are not good.
> Mr. Richard, politicians come and go. Domestic laws and international treaties last longer. Focusing on Liam Fox as an arbiter of how the nation should position itself for decades, perhaps centuries, to come is not wise, I think.
Trade treaties are international treaties as well.
And as Liam Fox is the man negotiating the trade treaties it is very wise to focus on him.
This is real world Morris, you need to deal with it.
> Nor can I. I'm surprised they've still talked this long but ultimately I just don't see how it is in their personal interests to do so. I can see the Tories being desperate enough to try harder for one but particularly in advance of the euros labour have no reason to.
>
>
> There is no political benefit to Labour in agreeing a deal. If we were staring down the muzzle of a GE there would be but we aren't.
Labour agreeing a deal to bail out the Tories will destroy them with both Remainers and with those who are obsessively anti Tory.
Indeed the destruction of both the Tories and Corbyn looks to be the real Brexit dividend!
> Can I recommend everyone take a look at the flavible map (I assume it's accurate!)
>
> Strangely whilst being seen as the party of remain, Lib Dems are breaking through in some areas that were quite pro-leave. Labour remaining (no pun intended) quite strong in the cities. Why is this if it is the cities that are the bedrock of remain voters? Is it a question of vote splits - Lib Dems benefitting from areas where there is no strong Labour tradition and so no split remain vote?
>
> My concern is that it may be something to do with ethnicity. The Lib Dems are a possibility for white voters who don't like the Tories but BME voters are solidly Labour.
A very interesting question. A bit of the answer may be in social history and attitudes. I think that the Liberals/LDs were in general a party seen as the alternative to the Conservatives, rather than the alternative to Labour. There was - maybe still is - a time when there were huge numbers of seats where Cons came first and LDs second, but almost none going Lab first and LD second. Protesting Labour voters have rarely looked to the Liberals. The Liberal image remains, however unfairly, leafy thoughtful suburb, safe posh old town, professionals flagging up their conscience rather than 'worker in Sunderland car plant.'
> https://twitter.com/MPritchardUK/status/1124596567430840320
I notice he doesn't have any constructive suggestions as to how to improve matters.
I can see why the EU dont expect us to agree anything. Although that does suggest the should have listened to Macron last time
Looking at the bollocks most of the contenders come out with I doubt it's going to get any better.
> If the Conservatives do go for a customs union to avoid the electoral beating at the European elections, I suspect that'll lead to them suffering a far more significant defeat at the next General Election. Angry Leavers won't forget, they'll just deliver their message at a later, and more important, electoral opportunity.
>
> Now, it might be that vague and fuzzy centrists with no strong views either way are just glad the matter's resolved. But they're also less likely to vote on EU reasons generally anyway, whereas an anti-customs union backlash is all but guaranteed.
>
> Interesting to also consider the impact upon Labour.
The number of people in the real world, as opposed to those who spend all day on niche websites, who are bothered about trade policy is fecking minimal.
Do you not understand why Leave focused on immigration and the NHS and kept the 'Go Global' fanatics out of the spotlight ?
> If the Conservatives do go for a customs union to avoid the electoral beating at the European elections, I suspect that'll lead to them suffering a far more significant defeat at the next General Election. Angry Leavers won't forget, they'll just deliver their message at a later, and more important, electoral opportunity.
>
> Now, it might be that vague and fuzzy centrists with no strong views either way are just glad the matter's resolved. But they're also less likely to vote on EU reasons generally anyway, whereas an anti-customs union backlash is all but guaranteed.
>
> Interesting to also consider the impact upon Labour.
Labour will also get a backlash from Brexit with a Customs Union without EUref2 attached so it would hit both main parties but the real anger from Leavers is we are still in the EU it is the obsessives who care about a Customs Union (We could still do Deals on services anyway)
> https://twitter.com/MPritchardUK/status/1124596567430840320
On last night's results it will only be PM Corbyn if he gets LD support
I have "produced" that statistic in the manner of Rory Stewart.
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
>
> > https://twitter.com/MPritchardUK/status/1124596567430840320
>
>
>
>
>
> I notice he doesn't have any constructive suggestions as to how to improve matters.
>
> What, you dont think 'something must be done' is constructive enough on it's own?
Posturing on twatter seems to be his limit.
Now if he wants an actual suggestion perhaps comparing housing affordability with Conservative performance might give a clue.
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > https://twitter.com/MPritchardUK/status/1124596567430840320
>
> On last night's results it will only be PM Corbyn if he gets LD support
And the LDs ain't going to back the Brexiteer anti semite