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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A big loser from the locals is Change UK who decided to sit these elections out
The New Statesman’s Stephen Bush’s analysis sums up the post-local elections challenge for ChangeUK which, of course, did not participate yesterday’s.
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> > @thecommissioner said:
> > The Tory/Labour duopoly now finds itself under threat.
> >
> > It's reaching the point where it's in their mutual best interests to get Brexit done in some vaguely palatable way to enough of both sets of voters and hope that 2022 is far enough away for their deal to be forgotten/marginalised.
>
> But if Corbyn assists Brexit in getting over the line, Labour's vote share will drop by ten points minimum - and it won't recover by the GE.
Agreed. Hence their ongoing strategy, which is clearly not perfect but they appear to be playing for time and waiting on the Tories to do even worse.
> https://twitter.com/underseamonkey/status/1124418701409779712
Who is 'they' specifically? MPs? The leaders? Even with the different messages expected to be listened to it is confused.
> CUK will either make an accommodation with the LibDems or disappear.
A good showing in the Euros will give them something to use as leverage.
Why doesn't Corbyn seem to heed his members concerning Brexit? Is his brain frozen in the past? Nasty.
> CUK will either make an accommodation with the LibDems or disappear.
>
> It's looking like it was a big strategic mistake to try to supplant the Lib Dems. They should have made sure there was something fundamentally distinctive about their political brand before launching.
If the LDs start doing pacts with the Greens then there is space for CUK to adopt a more economically centrist line for more fiscally conservative Remainers
Labour won 2023 seats
LDs won 1350 seats
Greens won 265 seats
UKIP won 31 seats
Others/Inds won 1179 seats
Except both parties are talking about how the deal has to be done...</blockquote>
What they say does not as much as what they do. They've talked about doing a lot of things and yet have no passed anything other than a request for more time to cock about.
> > > But these elections and the EU ones make the passage of the withdrawal agreement less likely - all sides interpret the results as vindication of their position and so become more entrenched.
> >
> > Correct. For one thing all of them will want to see what happens in the EP elections to see how much backing the various options have.
They aimed to be the Lib Dems, without the baggage of tuition fees/Tory coalition -but lacked the courage to fight by-elections.
Wanting a second vote on EU membership whilst refusing their constituents one on their own representation is a ridiculously hypocritical position. They had to stand again in front of their electorates as a point of principle.They did not.
@williamglenn did not say CUK will either make an accommodation with the LibDems or disappear.. He was responding to me, who did say that but is not mentioned in the quote.
edit - use Vanilla for proper quotes!
> > @williamglenn said:
> > CUK will either make an accommodation with the LibDems or disappear.
> >
> > It's looking like it was a big strategic mistake to try to supplant the Lib Dems. They should have made sure there was something fundamentally distinctive about their political brand before launching.
>
> If the LDs start doing pacts with the Greens then there is space for CUK to adopt a more economically centrist line for more fiscally conservative Remainers
Talk about splitting hairs. There is no space nor need for the Tiggers. There is nothing 'change' about them, nothing they offer which is not already represented in the Commons.
> There is no place for CUK.
>
> They aimed to be the Lib Dems, without the baggage of tuition fees/Tory coalition -but lacked the courage to fight by-elections.
>
> Wanting a second vote on EU membership whilst refusing their constituents one on their own representation is a ridiculously hypocritical position. They had to stand again in front of their electorates as a point of principle.They did not.
> @geoffw said:
> The new party's name, ChangeUK, contradicts its policy stance which is to revoke and remain, so delivering no change. Do they think people can't see that and so see them as confidence tricksters?
> @KentRising said:
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @williamglenn said:
> > > CUK will either make an accommodation with the LibDems or disappear.
> > >
> > > It's looking like it was a big strategic mistake to try to supplant the Lib Dems. They should have made sure there was something fundamentally distinctive about their political brand before launching.
> >
> > If the LDs start doing pacts with the Greens then there is space for CUK to adopt a more economically centrist line for more fiscally conservative Remainers
>
> Talk about splitting hairs. There is no space nor need for the Tiggers. There is nothing 'change' about them, nothing they offer which is not already represented in the Commons.
I’m sure the TIGgers will be devastated not to have the support of the headbanger right.
Meanwhile us eco-socialists in Labour don't get the chance to do this with like-minded comrades in the Greens.
> > @williamglenn said:
> > CUK will either make an accommodation with the LibDems or disappear.
> >
> > It's looking like it was a big strategic mistake to try to supplant the Lib Dems. They should have made sure there was something fundamentally distinctive about their political brand before launching.
>
> If the LDs start doing pacts with the Greens then there is space for CUK to adopt a more economically centrist line for more fiscally conservative Remainers
I hope so. CUK will peel off Tories from the Remainer end while the Brexit party peel them off from the Leaver end. Neither CUK or TBP will achieve many seats under FPTP but they will castrate the Tories - one ball each..
> The new party's name, ChangeUK, contradicts its policy stance which is to revoke and remain, so delivering no change. Do they think people can't see that and so see them as confidence tricksters?
Ah, but they want a change from the change to a position that would be no change from where we are now. But it is a change for a party to be so explicit in seeking no change from the current via the change of a new party.
See.
> CUK probably lacked the time to set up for the locals. Not the end of the world for them, but giving the LDs a run for their money may be more difficult than it seemed.
More to the point, what would their Local manifesto have included?
> > @geoffw said:
> > The new party's name, ChangeUK, contradicts its policy stance which is to revoke and remain, so delivering no change. Do they think people can't see that and so see them as confidence tricksters?
>
> Ah, but they want a change from the change to a position that would be no change from where we are now. But it is a change for a party to be so explicit in seeking no change from the current via the change of a new party.
>
> See.
I see what you mean for a change.
I think Change UK has some really good politicians in it in the guise of Heidi Allen and Chuka Umunna. There is something fresh about them and they have a spark that is difficult to identify in the leadership of the Tories, Labour or the LD (Apart from Jo Swinson).
Di Lampedusa, The Leopard.
- "Nothing has changed! I'm alright!"
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @williamglenn said:
> > > CUK will either make an accommodation with the LibDems or disappear.
> > >
> > > It's looking like it was a big strategic mistake to try to supplant the Lib Dems. They should have made sure there was something fundamentally distinctive about their political brand before launching.
> >
> > If the LDs start doing pacts with the Greens then there is space for CUK to adopt a more economically centrist line for more fiscally conservative Remainers
>
> I hope so. CUK will peel off Tories from the Remainer end while the Brexit party peel them off from the Leaver end. Neither CUK or TBP will achieve many seats under FPTP but they will castrate the Tories - one ball each..
It is equally possibly a LD Green pact will peel off Labour voters from the Remainer end while the Brexit Party peel them off from the Leaver end.
Labour's abysmal results in the local elections show it is not just the Tories getting squeezed by Brexit and the European elections will likely confirm that trend
Their branding is terrible and the longer it goes on the more it looks like they dont have policies as they either do not agree enough internally, or are waiting for the focus groups to tell them what policies to have.
> > @Barnesian said:
> > > @HYUFD said:
> > > > @williamglenn said:
> > > > CUK will either make an accommodation with the LibDems or disappear.
> > > >
> > > > It's looking like it was a big strategic mistake to try to supplant the Lib Dems. They should have made sure there was something fundamentally distinctive about their political brand before launching.
> > >
> > > If the LDs start doing pacts with the Greens then there is space for CUK to adopt a more economically centrist line for more fiscally conservative Remainers
> >
> > I hope so. CUK will peel off Tories from the Remainer end while the Brexit party peel them off from the Leaver end. Neither CUK or TBP will achieve many seats under FPTP but they will castrate the Tories - one ball each..
>
> It is equally possibly a LD Green pact will peel off Labour voters from the Remainer end while the Brexit Party peel them off from the Leaver end.
>
> Labour's abysmal results in the local elections show it is not just the Tories getting squeezed by Brexit and the European elections will likely confirm that trend
I agree. It's all good news.
> > @geoffw said:
>
> > The new party's name, ChangeUK, contradicts its policy stance which is to revoke and remain, so delivering no change. Do they think people can't see that and so see them as confidence tricksters?
>
>
>
> Ah, but they want a change from the change to a position that would be no change from where we are now. But it is a change for a party to be so explicit in seeking no change from the current via the change of a new party.
>
>
>
> See.
>
> “Everything must change so that everything can stay the same”
> Di Lampedusa, The Leopard.
>
> > @geoffw said:
>
> > The new party's name, ChangeUK, contradicts its policy stance which is to revoke and remain, so delivering no change. Do they think people can't see that and so see them as confidence tricksters?
>
>
>
> Ah, but they want a change from the change to a position that would be no change from where we are now. But it is a change for a party to be so explicit in seeking no change from the current via the change of a new party.
>
>
>
> See.
>
> “Everything must change so that everything can stay the same”
> Di Lampedusa, The Leopard.
>
> - "Theresa, you've turned off your targeting computer! What's wrong?"
> - "Nothing has changed! I'm alright!"
This is not the Change UK are looking for.
After an election in 2015 where non-Tory parties got a third of the vote and 1 seat vs 50 Conservatives, targeting was more sensible this time. I got a 7.5% swing from the Tories, the LibDem even more. The underlying factor was that the LibDems and to some extent the Tories were concentrating elsewhere, and I was the only candidate seriously canvassing - I knocked on every door, some of them twice, and on the day knocked up anyone who was leaning either Lab or LibDem, since it was clear that voters for either would tend to help the other too
Looking at the ballot papers, what was interesting was that only just over half of each of the non-Tory votes was being shared with the other party (i.e. lots of Lab voters didn't vote LibDem and vice versa), but the half that was shared gave us both a clear win. Similar patterns recurred in nearly every other ward, with dramatic effect.
At a human level it's fun to be able to visit every voter during the campaign - obviously was not feasible at Parliamentary level.
> > @Scott_P said:
>
> > https://twitter.com/underseamonkey/status/1124418701409779712
>
>
>
>
>
> Who is 'they' specifically? MPs? The leaders? Even with the different messages expected to be listened to it is confused.
>
> 'They' is deliberately non-specific.
I hope they will listen to me a immediately install Lauren Laverne and Katherine Ryan as coleaders in a benign duocracy, while we figure out what the hell is going on.
With so many parties in contention a party can probably "win" the Euros on 25% of the votes.
> I’m sure the TIGgers will be devastated not to have the support of the headbanger right.
Outside of a certain type of electorate ~ probably wealthy London/South, late middle age, very white ~ they're going nowhere.
The young remainer folk are Green.
I think of them as "Changelings UK".
nos da
> Many thanks for the kind comments on my election downthread. This is Jeremy Hunt's seat, and the Tories were massacred, losing 27 out of 50 seats. There are 15 anti-Tory Residents, 14 LibDems, and 2 each for Labour and Green. Possible coalitions are already under discussion.
>
> After an election in 2015 where non-Tory parties got a third of the vote and 1 seat vs 50 Conservatives, targeting was more sensible this time. I got a 7.5% swing from the Tories, the LibDem even more. The underlying factor was that the LibDems and to some extent the Tories were concentrating elsewhere, and I was the only candidate seriously canvassing - I knocked on every door, some of them twice, and on the day knocked up anyone who was leaning either Lab or LibDem, since it was clear that voters for either would tend to help the other too
>
> Looking at the ballot papers, what was interesting was that only just over half of each of the non-Tory votes was being shared with the other party (i.e. lots of Lab voters didn't vote LibDem and vice versa), but the half that was shared gave us both a clear win. Similar patterns recurred in nearly every other ward, with dramatic effect.
>
> At a human level it's fun to be able to visit every voter during the campaign - obviously was not feasible at Parliamentary level.
Congratters, Nick. Next stop PM, you will certainly do a far better job than the assortment of clowns, jokers, madmen and quarterwits that populate the two front benches.
> I've just put a tenner on at Ladbrokes at 100/1 that the LD will win the biggest vote share on May 23rd. I don't think it is going to happen but they have the capability to convince that they are the natural choice of remainers who want to block brexit. The locals victory gives them credence.
>
> With so many parties in contention a party can probably "win" the Euros on 25% of the votes.
Even 20% might be enough.
> Many thanks for the kind comments on my election downthread.
Congrats Nick! We had a decent result in East Staffs, gaining one from Labour and losing one to an anti-development Indy. But my friends in Stoke had a spectacular one. Clearly things are very different in the South.
> > @williamglenn said:
> > CUK will either make an accommodation with the LibDems or disappear.
> >
> > It's looking like it was a big strategic mistake to try to supplant the Lib Dems. They should have made sure there was something fundamentally distinctive about their political brand before launching.
>
> If the LDs start doing pacts with the Greens then there is space for CUK to adopt a more economically centrist line for more fiscally conservative Remainers
Yes, I think CUK do need to outflank to the right of the LDs, both in spanning the economy led and public services led philosophies, and in the True blue remain places where they target. The first polling ripples hint at giving them particular strength in the SE - they should go after bits of the M40 corridor too blue to go too heavily LD - Buckinghamshire perhaps, Cheshire plain, N. London, Surrey, go after Leavers from Northants to Essex to Higher Broughton. It's a strategy that would work best with a redoubtable Tory female like Soubrey or a reassurier like Grieve in charge.
<i>Extinction Rebellion told prison is not a 'yoga retreat'</i>
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-trending-48147915
> Many thanks for the kind comments on my election downthread. This is Jeremy Hunt's seat, and the Tories were massacred, losing 27 out of 50 seats. There are 15 anti-Tory Residents, 14 LibDems, and 2 each for Labour and Green. Possible coalitions are already under discussion.
>
> After an election in 2015 where non-Tory parties got a third of the vote and 1 seat vs 50 Conservatives, targeting was more sensible this time. I got a 7.5% swing from the Tories, the LibDem even more. The underlying factor was that the LibDems and to some extent the Tories were concentrating elsewhere, and I was the only candidate seriously canvassing - I knocked on every door, some of them twice, and on the day knocked up anyone who was leaning either Lab or LibDem, since it was clear that voters for either would tend to help the other too
>
> Looking at the ballot papers, what was interesting was that only just over half of each of the non-Tory votes was being shared with the other party (i.e. lots of Lab voters didn't vote LibDem and vice versa), but the half that was shared gave us both a clear win. Similar patterns recurred in nearly every other ward, with dramatic effect.
>
> At a human level it's fun to be able to visit every voter during the campaign - obviously was not feasible at Parliamentary level.
Well done. Very satisfying.
Has there ever been a Lab councillor on Waverley council?
> > @NickPalmer said:
> > Many thanks for the kind comments on my election downthread. This is Jeremy Hunt's seat, and the Tories were massacred, losing 27 out of 50 seats. There are 15 anti-Tory Residents, 14 LibDems, and 2 each for Labour and Green. Possible coalitions are already under discussion.
> >
> > After an election in 2015 where non-Tory parties got a third of the vote and 1 seat vs 50 Conservatives, targeting was more sensible this time. I got a 7.5% swing from the Tories, the LibDem even more. The underlying factor was that the LibDems and to some extent the Tories were concentrating elsewhere, and I was the only candidate seriously canvassing - I knocked on every door, some of them twice, and on the day knocked up anyone who was leaning either Lab or LibDem, since it was clear that voters for either would tend to help the other too
> >
> > Looking at the ballot papers, what was interesting was that only just over half of each of the non-Tory votes was being shared with the other party (i.e. lots of Lab voters didn't vote LibDem and vice versa), but the half that was shared gave us both a clear win. Similar patterns recurred in nearly every other ward, with dramatic effect.
> >
> > At a human level it's fun to be able to visit every voter during the campaign - obviously was not feasible at Parliamentary level.
>
> Well done. Very satisfying.
+1
Will Con voters, especially in south, return home when faced with a GE with Jezza as the opponent and on course for No. 10?
Will they stay true to their anger over failed Brexit or start to think about their wallets?
> Congrats to Nick. Back into the fray.
>
> Has there ever been a Lab councillor on Waverley council?
Yes, but I believe not in this century. Now there are two!
> I've just put a tenner on at Ladbrokes at 100/1 that the LD will win the biggest vote share on May 23rd. I don't think it is going to happen but they have the capability to convince that they are the natural choice of remainers who want to block brexit. The locals victory gives them credence.
>
> With so many parties in contention a party can probably "win" the Euros on 25% of the votes.
Worth a tiny punt I think, but the other one on Ladbrokes of interest is 50/1 on Lab under 10%. Not likely on current polling, but if Lab "bail out" the Tories, to use Gardiners description, they will be anathema both to Tory loathing socialists and to Remain supporters. Cutting such a deal would be an extinction level event for Corbynism.
> > @NickPalmer said:
> > Many thanks for the kind comments on my election downthread.
>
> Congrats Nick! We had a decent result in East Staffs, gaining one from Labour and losing one to an anti-development Indy. But my friends in Stoke had a spectacular one. Clearly things are very different in the South.
Yes, and congrats on your result too. I wonder if party support is starting to even out regionally in the same way as it's already largely evened out over class (lots of Labour AB voters and Tory CDEs)?
> Top question following today's results.
>
> Will Con voters, especially in south, return home when faced with a GE with Jezza as the opponent and on course for No. 10?
>
> Will they stay true to their anger over failed Brexit or start to think about their wallets?
They don't need to go blue to do that. They can stick with LibDems and keep Corbyn out that way
1The HoC maths hasn't changed. There is still no majority for a Brexit deal.
2 Given that, the drift away from the big 2 may continue. Is it time for the Tories to think the unthinkable in the face,of the expected Brexit Party tsunami?
PR, I mean.
3 After zero contact for 5 years, at 11am today a LD Euro election leaflet. They are back and energised. At least round here.
> I've just put a tenner on at Ladbrokes at 100/1 that the LD will win the biggest vote share on May 23rd. I don't think it is going to happen but they have the capability to convince that they are the natural choice of remainers who want to block brexit. The locals victory gives them credence.
>
> With so many parties in contention a party can probably "win" the Euros on 25% of the votes.
Isn't the Ladbrokes market most seats rather than most votes? Under Dehondt the first is less likely.
Yes Labour didn’t have a good election but really trying to equate it to the Tory meltdown was extraordinary .
The BBC have been running non stop garbage for 24 hours that these results were the public desperately wanting Brexit to be done as quickly as possible , BBC radio also joined in the bias .
No doubt when the Brexit Party top the EU elections this will be a massive mandate for a crash out no deal , even if they don’t reach 52% !
The BBC is now so cowered that it has become a Brexit apologist which now views any questioning of the will of the people guff as heresy !
> Some thoughts.
> 1The HoC maths hasn't changed. There is still no majority for a Brexit deal.
> 2 Given that, the drift away from the big 2 may continue. Is it time for the Tories to think the unthinkable in the face,of the expected Brexit Party tsunami?
> PR, I mean.
> 3 After zero contact for 5 years, at 11am today a LD Euro election leaflet. They are back and energised. At least round here.
1 Agreed. Today's results make the passage of a deal even less likely and it was pretty unlikely already.
2 The chances of this parliament finding a majority to change the electoral system are lower than your chances of flying to the moon.
3 Yes the LDs did well,today and will be energised for the EP elections.
> Truly astonishing bias in the BBC and print media .
>
> Yes Labour didn’t have a good election but really trying to equate it to the Tory meltdown was extraordinary .
>
> The BBC have been running non stop garbage for 24 hours that these results were the public desperately wanting Brexit to be done as quickly as possible , BBC radio also joined in the bias .
>
> No doubt when the Brexit Party top the EU elections this will be a massive mandate for a crash out no deal , even if they don’t reach 52% !
>
> The BBC is now so cowered that it has become a Brexit apologist which now views any questioning of the will of the people guff as heresy !
It is bizarre that voters streaming away from the parties of Brexit to those of Remain is being spun as a desire for a harder faster Brexit!
> Truly astonishing bias in the BBC and print media .
>
> Yes Labour didn’t have a good election but really trying to equate it to the Tory meltdown was extraordinary .
>
> The BBC have been running non stop garbage for 24 hours that these results were the public desperately wanting Brexit to be done as quickly as possible , BBC radio also joined in the bias .
>
> No doubt when the Brexit Party top the EU elections this will be a massive mandate for a crash out no deal , even if they don’t reach 52% !
>
> The BBC is now so cowered that it has become a Brexit apologist which now views any questioning of the will of the people guff as heresy !
I've noticed it too. R4's as biased as it was during the Falklands War. I found that Radio Sweden had good coverage in English so I listened to it for the rest of the War.
> > @nico67 said:
> > Truly astonishing bias in the BBC and print media .
> >
> > Yes Labour didn’t have a good election but really trying to equate it to the Tory meltdown was extraordinary .
> >
> > The BBC have been running non stop garbage for 24 hours that these results were the public desperately wanting Brexit to be done as quickly as possible , BBC radio also joined in the bias .
> >
> > No doubt when the Brexit Party top the EU elections this will be a massive mandate for a crash out no deal , even if they don’t reach 52% !
> >
> > The BBC is now so cowered that it has become a Brexit apologist which now views any questioning of the will of the people guff as heresy !
>
> It is bizarre that voters streaming away from the parties of Brexit to those of Remain is being spun as a desire for a harder faster Brexit!
>
>
The fact some voters switched back to the LDs to mend their potholes was no sign of a 'surge to Remain'. Many Brexiteers stayed at home or boted for Independents or spoiled their ballot papers but will be out in force for the Brexit Party at the European elections
> Truly astonishing bias in the BBC and print media .
>
> Yes Labour didn’t have a good election but really trying to equate it to the Tory meltdown was extraordinary .
>
> The BBC have been running non stop garbage for 24 hours that these results were the public desperately wanting Brexit to be done as quickly as possible , BBC radio also joined in the bias .
>
> No doubt when the Brexit Party top the EU elections this will be a massive mandate for a crash out no deal , even if they don’t reach 52% !
>
> The BBC is now so cowered that it has become a Brexit apologist which now views any questioning of the will of the people guff as heresy !
Labour's result was absolutely abysmal, losing seats after 9 years in opposition is dreadful on any measure.
The Tories also had a terrible result but after 9 years in Governmemt that is more expected, Corbynista denial does not change the fact the BBC reports were pretty accurate
> > @Foxy said:
> > > @nico67 said:
> > > Truly astonishing bias in the BBC and print media .
> > >
> > > Yes Labour didn’t have a good election but really trying to equate it to the Tory meltdown was extraordinary .
> > >
> > > The BBC have been running non stop garbage for 24 hours that these results were the public desperately wanting Brexit to be done as quickly as possible , BBC radio also joined in the bias .
> > >
> > > No doubt when the Brexit Party top the EU elections this will be a massive mandate for a crash out no deal , even if they don’t reach 52% !
> > >
> > > The BBC is now so cowered that it has become a Brexit apologist which now views any questioning of the will of the people guff as heresy !
> >
> > It is bizarre that voters streaming away from the parties of Brexit to those of Remain is being spun as a desire for a harder faster Brexit!
> >
> >
>
> The fact some voters switched back to the LDs to mend their potholes was no sign of a 'surge to Remain'. Many Brexiteers stayed at home or boted for Independents or spoiled their ballot papers but will be out in force for the Brexit Party at the European elections
Turnout was much the same as previous Local elections and the number of spoilt ballots also.
https://twitter.com/JXB101/status/1124236304768741376?s=19
Jess Phillips: "I want to be size 10, but I just keep eating cake."
As a philosophical summing up of Brexit dreaming, no one has done better.
> > @rottenborough said:
> > Top question following today's results.
> >
> > Will Con voters, especially in south, return home when faced with a GE with Jezza as the opponent and on course for No. 10?
> >
> > Will they stay true to their anger over failed Brexit or start to think about their wallets?
>
> They don't need to go blue to do that. They can stick with LibDems and keep Corbyn out that way
Explain how that works?
Or do you think the Lib Dems should get ready for government
We are, basically, all social liberals now. The next leader is going to be Jo Swinson or Layla Moran and both are clearly social liberals.
Personally I'm not far off an eco-socialist; certainly I'm an eco-social democrat. Corbyn is neither eco nor social democrat. Come and join the dark orange side.
> > @Foxy said:
> > > @rottenborough said:
> > > Top question following today's results.
> > >
> > > Will Con voters, especially in south, return home when faced with a GE with Jezza as the opponent and on course for No. 10?
> > >
> > > Will they stay true to their anger over failed Brexit or start to think about their wallets?
> >
> > They don't need to go blue to do that. They can stick with LibDems and keep Corbyn out that way
>
> Explain how that works?
>
> Or do you think the Lib Dems should get ready for government
No, just the balance of power in a hung parliament would do, and a hung parliament is the most likely outcome of a GE at present. If Winchester, or Somerset goes yellow rather than blue it does not help Jezza at all.
> > @rottenborough said:
> > Top question following today's results.
> >
> > Will Con voters, especially in south, return home when faced with a GE with Jezza as the opponent and on course for No. 10?
> >
> > Will they stay true to their anger over failed Brexit or start to think about their wallets?
>
> They don't need to go blue to do that. They can stick with LibDems and keep Corbyn out that way
You reckon the lib dems wouldn't do a deal with JC?
How an ostensibly sensible person like you is willing to associate with the league of crackpots that is the modern day Tory party is one of PB’s finer mysteries.
> > @Foxy said:
> > > @rottenborough said:
> > > Top question following today's results.
> > >
> > > Will Con voters, especially in south, return home when faced with a GE with Jezza as the opponent and on course for No. 10?
> > >
> > > Will they stay true to their anger over failed Brexit or start to think about their wallets?
> >
> > They don't need to go blue to do that. They can stick with LibDems and keep Corbyn out that way
>
> You reckon the lib dems wouldn't do a deal with JC?
I am certain we wouldn't, though ironically a deal with Corbyn is exactly what the current Tory plan is!
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/442037-poll-biden-leads-dem-primary-field-by-30-points
> > @rkrkrk said:
> > > @Foxy said:
> > > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > Top question following today's results.
> > > >
> > > > Will Con voters, especially in south, return home when faced with a GE with Jezza as the opponent and on course for No. 10?
> > > >
> > > > Will they stay true to their anger over failed Brexit or start to think about their wallets?
> > >
> > > They don't need to go blue to do that. They can stick with LibDems and keep Corbyn out that way
> >
> > You reckon the lib dems wouldn't do a deal with JC?
>
> I am certain we wouldn't, though ironically a deal with Corbyn is exactly what the current Tory plan is!
Must admit I'm surprised. I would have thought if there's a hung parliament, and Corbyn offered a second referendum, then both SNP and LD would take him up on that.
Justin124 said-
>' In Colchester Labour now appears to be the main challenger at a General Election.'
>
Floater said
>' I really think not Justin
>
> The lib Dem candidate is really high profile and does a lot for the community.
>
> I have not even heard anything from Labour in the years I have lived here.'
>
>
Justin said
'The 2017 result in Colchester appears to speak for itself _
Conservative Will Quince 24,565 45.9 +6.9
Labour Tim Young 18,888 35.3 +19.1
Liberal Democrat Bob Russell 9,087 17.0 -10.5
Green Mark Goacher 828 1.5 -3.6
Christian Peoples Robin Rennie[16] 177 0.3 +0.1
Majority
5,677 10.6 -0.9
Turnout
53,545 66.9 +1. '
> > @Foxy said:
> > > @rkrkrk said:
> > > > @Foxy said:
> > > > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > > Top question following today's results.
> > > > >
> > > > > Will Con voters, especially in south, return home when faced with a GE with Jezza as the opponent and on course for No. 10?
> > > > >
> > > > > Will they stay true to their anger over failed Brexit or start to think about their wallets?
> > > >
> > > > They don't need to go blue to do that. They can stick with LibDems and keep Corbyn out that way
> > >
> > > You reckon the lib dems wouldn't do a deal with JC?
> >
> > I am certain we wouldn't, though ironically a deal with Corbyn is exactly what the current Tory plan is!
>
> Must admit I'm surprised. I would have thought if there's a hung parliament, and Corbyn offered a second referendum, then both SNP and LD would take him up on that.
Support on individual issues like a referendum is possible, but support for a irresponsible budget is not going to happen.
But ffs, the state of the BBC. It's just... glib. Every single time I hear or read a BBC story I find myself shouting IT'S NOT AS SIMPLE AS THAT. That's not an accessible journalism moan - I spent 20 years writing for and editing consumer magazines, I know how it works - but rather that the editorial direction of the BBC is unadventurous clickbait. And if the BBC has any rationale, it should be "not clickbait". Clickbait means "whatever makes money". We have dozens of clickbait publishers: they want to make money. The BBC has public funding. It should be trying to rise above that. That it isn't... makes me wonder why we fund it at all.
> My quote of the day:
>
>
>
> Jess Phillips: "I want to be size 10, but I just keep eating cake."
>
>
>
> As a philosophical summing up of Brexit dreaming, no one has done better.
>
> Absolutely brilliant from Jess.
Though actually Jess has done a bit of a Tom Watson and shed a couple of stone in the last year. It's almost as if she is on manouvres .
> > @HYUFD said:
> > > @Foxy said:
> > > > @nico67 said:
> > > > Truly astonishing bias in the BBC and print media .
> > > >
> > > > Yes Labour didn’t have a good election but really trying to equate it to the Tory meltdown was extraordinary .
> > > >
> > > > The BBC have been running non stop garbage for 24 hours that these results were the public desperately wanting Brexit to be done as quickly as possible , BBC radio also joined in the bias .
> > > >
> > > > No doubt when the Brexit Party top the EU elections this will be a massive mandate for a crash out no deal , even if they don’t reach 52% !
> > > >
> > > > The BBC is now so cowered that it has become a Brexit apologist which now views any questioning of the will of the people guff as heresy !
> > >
> > > It is bizarre that voters streaming away from the parties of Brexit to those of Remain is being spun as a desire for a harder faster Brexit!
> > >
> > >
> >
> > The fact some voters switched back to the LDs to mend their potholes was no sign of a 'surge to Remain'. Many Brexiteers stayed at home or boted for Independents or spoiled their ballot papers but will be out in force for the Brexit Party at the European elections
>
> Turnout was much the same as previous Local elections and the number of spoilt ballots also.
>
> https://twitter.com/JXB101/status/1124236304768741376?s=19
Turnout was certainly sub 30% in most wards in Epping Forest and I personally witnessed many ballot papers spoiled with 'BREXIT' scrawled across them
> > @Foxy said:
> > > @rkrkrk said:
> > > > @Foxy said:
> > > > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > > Top question following today's results.
> > > > >
> > > > > Will Con voters, especially in south, return home when faced with a GE with Jezza as the opponent and on course for No. 10?
> > > > >
> > > > > Will they stay true to their anger over failed Brexit or start to think about their wallets?
> > > >
> > > > They don't need to go blue to do that. They can stick with LibDems and keep Corbyn out that way
> > >
> > > You reckon the lib dems wouldn't do a deal with JC?
> >
> > I am certain we wouldn't, though ironically a deal with Corbyn is exactly what the current Tory plan is!
>
> Must admit I'm surprised. I would have thought if there's a hung parliament, and Corbyn offered a second referendum, then both SNP and LD would take him up on that.
A Corbyn, LD and SNP deal would be great for the Tories, they could have opposition to themselves and unite behind Boris on a hard Brexit platform while Ruth Davidson would lead the main opposition in Scotland and probably further squeeze the Labour Unionist vote
> The BBC’s domestic political coverage is universally lousy. The unbearable Laura K is by some distance the least talented spearhead the department has had in its history. It is now the worst of the main networks for politics - a must-avoid basket case.
>
> I'm half with you on that. I like Laura Kuenssberg, and not just because I used to sit next to her husband in first-form maths. She strikes me as fairly insightful; ok, not so likely to break Government-wrecking stories, but enjoyable to read.
>
> But ffs, the state of the BBC. It's just... glib. Every single time I hear or read a BBC story I find myself shouting IT'S NOT AS SIMPLE AS THAT. That's not an accessible journalism moan - I spent 20 years writing for and editing consumer magazines, I know how it works - but rather that the editorial direction of the BBC is unadventurous clickbait. And if the BBC has any rationale, it should be "not clickbait". Clickbait means "whatever makes money". We have dozens of clickbait publishers: they want to make money. The BBC has public funding. It should be trying to rise above that. That it isn't... makes me wonder why we fund it at all.
She has certainly spoken utter gibberish in the past! I recall the day following the 2017 election , Laura informed BBC viewers that 'Theresa May was off to the Palace to seek permission to form a Minority Govt with DUP support'. That was utter nonsense - under our system a PM either continues in office - or resigns. 'Seeking permission' simply did not arise!
> > @Foxy said:
> > > @rottenborough said:
> > > Top question following today's results.
> > >
> > > Will Con voters, especially in south, return home when faced with a GE with Jezza as the opponent and on course for No. 10?
> > >
> > > Will they stay true to their anger over failed Brexit or start to think about their wallets?
> >
> > They don't need to go blue to do that. They can stick with LibDems and keep Corbyn out that way
>
> You reckon the lib dems wouldn't do a deal with JC?
Most of JC's MPs aren;t happy having to `do a deal' with him, let alone other parties.
Dems have their work cut out.
https://twitter.com/jessphillips/status/1124101456284590080
2016: down 18 seats.
2017: down 382 seats.
2018: up 79 seats.
2019: down 82 seats.
Total: down 403 seats.
While I don't think anything much can be read into the results in terms of direction on Brexit - both sides will see what they want to see, ignoring the obvious potholes and uncollected bins in their way - in terms of what both front benches want, getting it off the immediate agenda (because its not going anywhere for at least another electoral cycle) is a shared priority. The only was either can salvage something from the Euros is render the outcome irrelevant.
They’ve blown it.
It’s a shame as I do like Allen, Berger, and Soubry. (Never had much time for Umanna).
> On topic, there is absolutely no space in the centre for CUK. The idea they might be “like the Lib Dems but more economically liberal” is absurd.
>
> They’ve blown it.
>
> It’s a shame as I do like Allen, Berger, and Soubry. (Never had much time for Umanna).
I can envisage Sarah Wollaston joining the LDs after the Euro elections if CUK fail to make an impact. Not sure about the others.
https://www.gazette-news.co.uk/news/16240382.tina-mckay-is-labours-new-hope-for-colchester/
> And finally as we end local elections 2019, this is a great thread on spoilt ballot papers:
>
> https://twitter.com/jessphillips/status/1124101456284590080
There
Ouch
https://twitter.com/jameschappers/status/1124473771904184320