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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local election night – the results trickle in with the LDs and
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local election night – the results trickle in with the LDs and Greens gainers in vote terms
We must remember that the majority councils are not starting their counts until the morning.
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Frankly I have no idea what's going on.
> First...unlike Labour in the Wirral.
Or Hatlrpool
Didn't this guy use to be an MP?
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1124104790923984896
Eastham - Lib Dem HOLD
Bromborough - Labour HOLD
Greasby, Frankby and Irby - Con HOLD
Hoylake and Meols - HOLD
Claughton - Labour HOLD
New Brighton - Lab HOLD
Pensby and Thingwall - Con GAIN
Rock Ferry - Labour GAIN
Prenton - Green GAIN
Wallasey - Con HOLD
Leasowe and Moreton East - Lab HOLD
Bebington - Labour HOLD
Oxton - Lib Dem GAIN
Birkenhead and Tranmere - Green GAIN
Upton - Labour HOLD
Seacombe - Labour HOLD
Moreton West and Saughall Massie - Con HOLD
Bidston and St James - Lab HOLD
> https://twitter.com/onebsquared/status/1124105049339199489
>
> Didn't this guy use to be an MP?<
______
Bless. He looks like Worzel Gummidge after a bad night on Ketamine.
> > @rottenborough said:
> > https://twitter.com/onebsquared/status/1124105049339199489
> >
> > Didn't this guy use to be an MP?<
>
> ______
>
> Bless. He looks like Worzel Gummidge after a bad night on Ketamine.
LOL - I can see what you mean
> First like... the Greens. Or the Thurrock Independents. Or the Badgerton Residents' Association.
>
> Frankly I have no idea what's going on.
But it is interesting
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1124106722153463811
Not to be confused with the similarly victorious Veterans & People's Party of Hartlepool.
> https://twitter.com/onebsquared/status/1124105049339199489
>
> Didn't this guy use to be an MP?
He did. A keen Catholic, as I recall - was dubious about abortion etc., I think, though I may be wrong.
There was some surprise when I predicted a good LibDem night some weeks ago, but I try to describe things as I see them...
> Suspect tonight’s results are the death knell for a 2nd referendum
Don't tell Tom Baldwin on Sky News....
> Suspect tonight’s results are the death knell for a 2nd referendum
And for a GE in 2019 or 2020 I expect.
Labour aren't just losing votes to the Conservatives and UKIP, they're losing to the Lib Dems and Greens. It turns out that on Brexit, if you try to appeal to everyone, you appeal to no-one.
> So far this looks like it's bolstering Corbyn, not Starmer.<
_____
Only as regards Brexit. In terms of overall election-winning (surely more important than Brexit) then it is catastrophic for Corbyn. He is LOSING support and votes, not winning, against a tired and terrible government.
Any normal party would boot Jezza out tomorrow. Of course, Labour is no longer a normal party, it has been seized by the mad and the bad.
Con +1
Lab -1
Harlow final
no change
> Swindon final
>
> Con +1
> Lab -1
>
> Harlow final
> no change
Usually Tamworth has declared by now, but I can't find any information. They are supposed to be counting tonight. UKIP could do very well there. They have candidates in all 10 wards.
That's a BIG swing.
> So far this looks like it's bolstering Corbyn, not Starmer.
Yes - these seem to be pretty poor results for Labour overall. Perhaps the effect will be to increase the likelihood of a deal with May!
> So far this looks like it's bolstering Corbyn, not Starmer.
>
> I'm not so sure. I think we're seeing Corbyn's policy of equivocation unravelling before our eyes.
>
> Labour aren't just losing votes to the Conservatives and UKIP, they're losing to the Lib Dems and Greens. It turns out that on Brexit, if you try to appeal to everyone, you appeal to no-one.<
______
Yes, I think that's right.
Labour will finally have to decide where they stand on Brexit. It will be painful.
> https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1124107342797209601
The Greens are seen as a protest vote in Leave areas as well, IMO. I can't explain away the Lib Dems so easily, mind.
> So far this looks like it's bolstering Corbyn, not Starmer.
>
> I'm not so sure. I think we're seeing Corbyn's policy of equivocation unravelling before our eyes.
>
> Labour aren't just losing votes to the Conservatives and UKIP, they're losing to the Lib Dems and Greens. It turns out that on Brexit, if you try to appeal to everyone, you appeal to no-one.
Except, for the past few months, it's not been a policy of equivocation; it's been a policy of voting against Brexit / for Brexit delays at any opportunity, and for a second referendum twice.
And it's a policy which has meant much worse results for Labour than when they genuinely had a policy of equivocation, in 2017.
https://twitter.com/SandemanKit/status/1124089116696748032
Norris Green - Labour HOLD
Riverside - Labour HOLD
St Michael’s - Greens HOLD
Liscard - Labour HOLD
Knotty Ash - Labour HOLD
Fazakerley - Labour HOLD
Church - Lib Dems HOLD
Belle Vale - Labour HOLD
Old Swan - Labour HOLD
Allerton & Hunts Cross - Labour HOLD
Speke and Garston - Labour HOLD
Princes Park - Labour HOLD
County - Labour HOLD
Central - Labour HOLD
Croxteth - Labour HOLD
Anfield - Labour HOLD
Warbreck - Labour HOLD
Tuebrook & Stoneycroft - Liberals GAIN
Mossley Hill - Labour HOLD
Cressington - Labour HOLD
Woolton - Lib Dems GAIN
Clubmoor - Labour HOLD
Childwall - Lib Dems GAIN
Kirkdale - Labour HOLD
Wavertree - Labour HOLD
West Derby - Labour HOLD
Yewtree - Labour HOLD
Almost the same as last year apart Greens getting only 1 this time (2 in 2018)
>
>
> Notts news:
>
> https://twitter.com/SandemanKit/status/1124089116696748032
Somebody didn't get the memo.
> > @RightChuck said:
> > So far this looks like it's bolstering Corbyn, not Starmer.
>
> Yes - these seem to be pretty poor results for Labour overall. Perhaps the effect will be to increase the likelihood of a deal with May!
The Times today suggested it is virtually wrapped up, with both sides expecting 170 of their MPs to back it, so 340 votes at least and a majority. Tonight's results will be focusing Labour minds even more firmly!
> > @rottenborough said:
> >
> >
> > Notts news:
> >
> > https://twitter.com/SandemanKit/status/1124089116696748032
>
> Somebody didn't get the memo.
Or rather did but hasn't been checking their phone recently.
> > @justin124 said:
> > > @RightChuck said:
> > > So far this looks like it's bolstering Corbyn, not Starmer.
> >
> > Yes - these seem to be pretty poor results for Labour overall. Perhaps the effect will be to increase the likelihood of a deal with May!
>
> The Times today suggested it is virtually wrapped up, with both sides expecting 170 of their MPs to back it, so 340 votes at least and a majority. Tonight's results will be focusing Labour miners even more firmly!<
______
If Theresa May agrees to a permanent Customs Union membership, forever taking rules from Brussels, then she will have "resigned" by the weekend.
She can't and won't. Unless she is now entirely careless.
> > @justin124 said:
> > > @RightChuck said:
> > > So far this looks like it's bolstering Corbyn, not Starmer.
> >
> > Yes - these seem to be pretty poor results for Labour overall. Perhaps the effect will be to increase the likelihood of a deal with May!
>
> The Times today suggested it is virtually wrapped up, with both sides expecting 170 of their MPs to back it, so 340 votes at least and a majority. Tonight's results will be focusing Labour minds even more firmly!
That is interesting!
> https://twitter.com/Colchesterviews/status/1124106597079355392
That surely has to be some local issue....Being pissed off with the Tories and jumping past the Lib Dems, past Labour and ending up even further left with the Greens is quite a conversion for the average man in the street.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ITVCentral/status/1124108161684856832
The turnout in Nottingham city is 29% with 61,292 votes cast out of a total electorate of 211,371
> > @Bob__Sykes said:
> > > @justin124 said:
> > > > @RightChuck said:
> > > > So far this looks like it's bolstering Corbyn, not Starmer.
> > >
> > > Yes - these seem to be pretty poor results for Labour overall. Perhaps the effect will be to increase the likelihood of a deal with May!
> >
> > The Times today suggested it is virtually wrapped up, with both sides expecting 170 of their MPs to back it, so 340 votes at least and a majority. Tonight's results will be focusing Labour miners even more firmly!<
>
> ______
>
> If Theresa May agrees to a permanent Customs Union membership, forever taking rules from Brussels, then she will have "resigned" by the weekend.
>
> She can't and won't. Unless she is now entirely careless.
The piece said the fudge is that it's a temporary customs union of sorts until 2022 with the Tories then free to campaign in GE 2022 for replacement with a frictionless alternative if such a thing exists and Labour to campaign for a permanent CU. Whoever wins gets into power and implements their preferred option. Make of that what you will...
> O.k, we are seeing a real realignment in British politics now.
>
> https://mobile.twitter.com/ITVCentral/status/1124108161684856832
WTF is going on LOL
Lab +5
Con -5
https://twitter.com/TheGreenParty/status/1124109324731727875
> > @rottenborough said:
> > https://twitter.com/Colchesterviews/status/1124106597079355392
>
> That surely has to be some local issue....Being pissed off with the Tories and jumping past the Lib Dems, past Labour and ending up even further left with the Greens is quite a conversion for the average man in the street.
Some of the Lib Dem councillors are great - the only reason my local one didn't get my vote is I refuse to support such a europhile party
> That surely has to be some local issue....Being pissed off with the Tories and jumping past the Lib Dems, past Labour and ending up even further left with the Greens is quite a conversion for the average man in the street.
The Greens can sometimes win support from fairly right-wing people who wouldn't consider voting Labour. Green things are pretty and everybody likes the environment.
> > @rottenborough said:
> > https://twitter.com/Colchesterviews/status/1124106597079355392
>
> That surely has to be some local issue....Being pissed off with the Tories and jumping past the Lib Dems, past Labour and ending up even further left with the Greens is quite a conversion for the average man in the street.
I should imagine many voters see the Greens as a single issue party only - they like the environment - and don't equate them with pro-EU, so many Leavers will have placed their protest cross in the Green box today, for lack of any Independent/UKIP option.
COn -2
Greens +1
LD +1
> > @rottenborough said:
> > https://twitter.com/Colchesterviews/status/1124106597079355392
>
> That surely has to be some local issue....Being pissed off with the Tories and jumping past the Lib Dems, past Labour and ending up even further left with the Greens is quite a conversion for the average man in the street.
The Greens do not always advertise their far-left policies. They can easily aim for the same sort of thing that a Lib Dem candidate aspired to be before 2010.
> They also voted for a soft Brexit. And did not opt for a referendum in their EU elections manifesto, while keeping it vaguely on the table. The general impression is muddle and they are falling between two stools.
That's not the general impression. YouGov had 42% of people describing Labour as anti-Brexit (more than Change UK, for example, and only a bit less than the Greens) while the % describing Labour as pro-Brexit was a "moon landings were faked"-esque 13%.
And tonight's showing how well a "party of Remain" does.
> > @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > That surely has to be some local issue....Being pissed off with the Tories and jumping past the Lib Dems, past Labour and ending up even further left with the Greens is quite a conversion for the average man in the street.
>
> The Greens can sometimes win support from fairly right-wing people who wouldn't consider voting Labour. Green things are pretty and everybody likes the environment. <
_______
Yes, I have voted Green several times, for that reason (especially locally or in the euros). I don't want them to govern me, but I do care about the environment and I get a little moral dopamine hit when I vote that way.
> O.k, we are seeing a real realignment in British politics now.
>
> https://mobile.twitter.com/ITVCentral/status/1124108161684856832
It looks like Grimsby will have a Conservative council as well.
Meanwhile the Conservatives are likely to lose numerous councils in the London stockbroker belt.
> > @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > That surely has to be some local issue....Being pissed off with the Tories and jumping past the Lib Dems, past Labour and ending up even further left with the Greens is quite a conversion for the average man in the street.
>
> The Greens can sometimes win support from fairly right-wing people who wouldn't consider voting Labour. Green things are pretty and everybody likes the environment.
And as the Greens are never in government they never have a record to defend.
> twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1124109922835357696
I do wonder if the VI polling is struggling to pick up everything, especially now there are 27,000 parties.
Also I think we are seeing that basically even if there is a small remain majority, in terms of FPTP most seats will be leave.
> > @nunuone said:
> > O.k, we are seeing a real realignment in British politics now.
> >
> > https://mobile.twitter.com/ITVCentral/status/1124108161684856832
>
> It looks like Grimsby will have a Conservative council as well.
>
> Meanwhile the Conservatives are likely to lose numerous councils in the London stockbroker belt.
Obviously Brexit and its pretty safe to make a protest vote...you don't have to worry about waking up to find a Marxist CoE coming for your dosh.
> I don't think Labour will win the euros based off this lot.
> Also I think we are seeing that basically even if there is a small remain majority, in terms of FPTP most seats will be leave.
Yes, these results would suggest it could be close between Tory and Labour at the Euros.
> > @nunuone said:
> > O.k, we are seeing a real realignment in British politics now.
> >
> > https://mobile.twitter.com/ITVCentral/status/1124108161684856832
>
> It looks like Grimsby will have a Conservative council as well.
>
> Meanwhile the Conservatives are likely to lose numerous councils in the London stockbroker belt.
We are seeing Labour increasingly become a southern, middle class party and the Tories representing the 'left-behind'. You couldn't make it up, but such is how far Labour have fallen from representing their socially centre-right, economically centre-left northern base.
> I don't think Labour will win the euros based off this lot.
> Also I think we are seeing that basically even if there is a small remain majority, in terms of FPTP most seats will be leave.
While we have had the millions signing the pro-remain online petition, it seems millions of quiet folk are making their pro-brexit protest at the ballot box.
> https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1124109922835357696
To put a 19% LibDem NEV into perspective they got 26% in 2007 and 30% in 2003.
> > @another_richard said:
> > > @nunuone said:
> > > O.k, we are seeing a real realignment in British politics now.
> > >
> > > https://mobile.twitter.com/ITVCentral/status/1124108161684856832
> >
> > It looks like Grimsby will have a Conservative council as well.
> >
> > Meanwhile the Conservatives are likely to lose numerous councils in the London stockbroker belt.
>
> We are seeing Labour increasingly become a southern, middle class party and the Tories representing the 'left-behind'. You couldn't make it up, but such is how far Labour have fallen from representing their socially centre-right, economically centre-left northern base.
Home ownership is a key issue.
Where house are affordable we see swings to the right.
where houses are unaffordable we see swings to the left.
Lab -4
Con -3
LD +6
Green +3
UKIP -6
> > @nunuone said:
>
> > O.k, we are seeing a real realignment in British politics now.
>
> >
>
> > https://mobile.twitter.com/ITVCentral/status/1124108161684856832
>
>
>
> It looks like Grimsby will have a Conservative council as well.
>
>
>
> Meanwhile the Conservatives are likely to lose numerous councils in the London stockbroker belt.
>
> London voted last year.
The commuter belt votes this year tho
> https://twitter.com/Hitchenor1609/status/1124111942442999808
Wow
> O.k, we are seeing a real realignment in British politics now.
>
> https://mobile.twitter.com/ITVCentral/status/1124108161684856832
Don't go overboard... Walsall has had a Tory council often enough before.
Labour are down 4%, Tories down 3%. I know this is a hostage to fortune, but I don't think this will change much,
Both main parties are getting a slapping, but given the electoral cycle, and the dire state of Brexit, this is much less alarming for the Tories than it is for Labour.
Goodnight all. I expect to be humiliated tomorrow with a shock Labour triumph, or maybe a total Green victory, heralding a Caroline Lucas premiership.
> BBC KEY WARDS - change vs 2015 (almost half results now in):
>
> Lab -4
> Con -3
> LD +6
> Green +3
> UKIP -6
Labour will lucky to keep the Tory national lead under 5% at this rate.
> Labour look to be doing best anywhere with a commuting line to London..
Renationalise the railways.
> Labour look to be doing best anywhere with a commuting line to London..
Which I suspect will have a strong correlation to unaffordable housing.
> LibDem 70% !!!!!!!
Who are these Lib Dem party? Are they a new party?
> > @rottenborough said:
> > https://twitter.com/Hitchenor1609/status/1124111942442999808
>
> Wow
And losing badly in some cases...
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1124113657028280326
> What the hell is happening in Barnsley?
Was there "a scandal" there too?
> Patrick O'Flynn sporting an SDP rosette!!
He is their Peterborough by election candidate
> What the hell is happening in Barnsley?
Fortunate for Labour that there are no elections in Doncaster and Rotherham.
I wonder if we might see the amazing sight of a Conservative elected in Bolsover.