For those keeping track, the Tory record on defence secretaries goes: 1) Resigned for breaking ministerial code/corruption 2) Promoted to chancellor 3) Resigned amid allegations of sexist behaviour/harassment 4) Fired for leaking national security information 5) Currently in post
Amusingly 2) is probably still the least popular among the Tory party membership.
> @El_Capitano said: > Shouldn't there be more than one source to print the story? > > No. That's a practice followed by some US newspapers but not generally standard practice in Fleet Street. Even in the US, they'll generally make an exception if the anonymous source is a "golden source" like, for example, the Secretary of State for Defence.
Ah okay thanks. Didn't know that. Always struck me as quite a high bar to meet.
> @AlastairMeeks said: > > @AlastairMeeks said: > > > I'm not yet sure whether I'll bother voting in the local elections. I caught the train before 7am so couldn't vote this morning and I probably won't be back in the village until after 9pm. None of the candidates have inspired and I have no important national message to send. The concept of a civic duty is really being stretched for me today. > > > > the village ? > > > > youre going all blazer brigade on us young Meeks, next youll be voting Brexit > > I'm not going to identify exactly where I live! > > You may rest assured that I will not be voting Brexit. Or worse, wearing a blazer.
lol
early days
it will start off with asking why the broad band is so crap and theres no decent phone signal, then you cant do internet banking so start to look for a bank and theyve all been closed, but that doesnt matter because the pub is about to close too so theres notthing to spend money on anyway, then the neighbouring town decides to use your road for fly tipping but the polcie cant be arsed to do anything since theyre all on overtime dancing with climate change protestors in London.
You get invited to some local events probably the village assembly and a local councillor asks you if you play golf and not wanting to seem antisocial you agree a round and he then turns up with 3 blokes in checked trousers and you start to agree that while you dont like Donald Trump he has a point about some things.
Suddenly youre furtively looking at blazers and thinking what to wear to the barn dance. Youre already on the slippy slope to being old
> @TOPPING said: > That means absolutely nothing to me, but there has been a scandal going on here for several year re the local plan (and I don't mean like the usual stuff on local plans). This isn't party political. To put it mildly the neighbouring Tories, Mole Valley, who have some wards in Guildford Borough do not get on with the Guildford Tories (and that really is putting it mildly). The Mole Valley MP used parliamentary privilege to accuse the Leader of the Guildford Tories to be under the influence of Russians, throw in a Cayman Islands development company, a fraud conviction, 80,000 objections to a local plan that still goes through and you get the gist. I could type until next next week. > > Bloody hell that is extraordinary. Plus Councils usually dislike neighbourhood plans.
There is a chance of the Tories being wiped out, but only a chance because of the split in the vote between 2 different independent groups and the LDs. However there does seem to have been some informal organisation to stop this happening in some places. For instance in my ward I have no LDs for the first time and 2 Inds from 1 group and 1 Ind from another group working together. I think that is a slam dunk and the 3 Tories will lose, but elsewhere not so organised.
To give you a flavour of the chaos, there was a by election in a place called Ripley a couple of years ago. It is in Guildford Borough, Mole Valley constituency so Mole Valley put up the candidate, who was against the Tory local plan. It had always been Tory. The LDs won with 70% of the vote. The Guildford Tories refused to canvas for the Mole Valley Tory. There was not a hares breath between the views of the Tory and LD. They have both now defected to the same Indy group!
I'm assuming you don't want the other 99 pages of scandal. Private Eye has a few tit bits.
> @AlastairMeeks said: > > @AlastairMeeks said: > > > I'm not yet sure whether I'll bother voting in the local elections. I caught the train before 7am so couldn't vote this morning and I probably won't be back in the village until after 9pm. None of the candidates have inspired and I have no important national message to send. The concept of a civic duty is really being stretched for me today. > > > > the village ? > > > > youre going all blazer brigade on us young Meeks, next youll be voting Brexit > > I'm not going to identify exactly where I live! > > You may rest assured that I will not be voting Brexit. Or worse, wearing a blazer.
Basically, if you are wearing a blazer and it's not because it is part of your school uniform then you are a twat. End of.
I guess you're too busy today to read this but good luck to all the local government candidates who post here who are trying to get elected today to do something useful for your area despite the best efforts of the incompetents and lunatics in charge of your respective parties.
> @Alanbrooke said: > > @AlastairMeeks said: > > > @AlastairMeeks said: > > > > > I'm not yet sure whether I'll bother voting in the local elections. I caught the train before 7am so couldn't vote this morning and I probably won't be back in the village until after 9pm. None of the candidates have inspired and I have no important national message to send. The concept of a civic duty is really being stretched for me today. > > > > > > > > the village ? > > > > > > > > youre going all blazer brigade on us young Meeks, next youll be voting Brexit > > > > I'm not going to identify exactly where I live! > > > > You may rest assured that I will not be voting Brexit. Or worse, wearing a blazer. > > lol > > early days > > it will start off with asking why the broad band is so crap and theres no decent phone signal, then you cant do internet banking so start to look for a bank and theyve all been closed, but that doesnt matter because the pub is about to close too so theres notthing to spend money on anyway, then the neighbouring town decides to use your road for fly tipping but the polcie cant be arsed to do anything since theyre all on overtime dancing with climate change protestors in London. > > You get invited to some local events probably the village assembly and a local councillor asks you if you play golf and not wanting to seem antisocial you agree a round and he then turns up with 3 blokes in checked trousers and you start to agree that while you dont like Donald Trump he has a point about some things. > > Suddenly youre furtively looking at blazers and thinking what to wear to the barn dance. Youre already on the slippy slope to being old > > Ive bought popcorn :-)
And, it only gets worse. Before long, you're wearing a chalk-striped suit, and turning up to listen to Nigel Farage when he holds a rally in the nearest big town.
> @OnlyLivingBoy said: > > @AlastairMeeks said: > > > @AlastairMeeks said: > > > > > I'm not yet sure whether I'll bother voting in the local elections. I caught the train before 7am so couldn't vote this morning and I probably won't be back in the village until after 9pm. None of the candidates have inspired and I have no important national message to send. The concept of a civic duty is really being stretched for me today. > > > > > > > > the village ? > > > > > > > > youre going all blazer brigade on us young Meeks, next youll be voting Brexit > > > > I'm not going to identify exactly where I live! > > > > You may rest assured that I will not be voting Brexit. Or worse, wearing a blazer. > > Basically, if you are wearing a blazer and it's not because it is part of your school uniform then you are a twat. End of.
Should add, coach drivers, security guards and others required to wear a blazer for work purposes also exempt from this law.
> @Sean_F said: > > @Alanbrooke said: > > > @AlastairMeeks said: > > > > @AlastairMeeks said: > > > > > > > I'm not yet sure whether I'll bother voting in the local elections. I caught the train before 7am so couldn't vote this morning and I probably won't be back in the village until after 9pm. None of the candidates have inspired and I have no important national message to send. The concept of a civic duty is really being stretched for me today. > > > > > > > > > > > > the village ? > > > > > > > > > > > > youre going all blazer brigade on us young Meeks, next youll be voting Brexit > > > > > > I'm not going to identify exactly where I live! > > > > > > You may rest assured that I will not be voting Brexit. Or worse, wearing a blazer. > > > > lol > > > > early days > > > > it will start off with asking why the broad band is so crap and theres no decent phone signal, then you cant do internet banking so start to look for a bank and theyve all been closed, but that doesnt matter because the pub is about to close too so theres notthing to spend money on anyway, then the neighbouring town decides to use your road for fly tipping but the polcie cant be arsed to do anything since theyre all on overtime dancing with climate change protestors in London. > > > > You get invited to some local events probably the village assembly and a local councillor asks you if you play golf and not wanting to seem antisocial you agree a round and he then turns up with 3 blokes in checked trousers and you start to agree that while you dont like Donald Trump he has a point about some things. > > > > Suddenly youre furtively looking at blazers and thinking what to wear to the barn dance. Youre already on the slippy slope to being old > > > > Ive bought popcorn :-) > > And, it only gets worse. Before long, you're wearing a chalk-striped suit, and turning up to listen to Nigel Farage when he holds a rally in the nearest big town.
Whilst noting, with disdain, the stench of rot and decay and the rudeness of the young people. Not at all like your home, that little piece of old England beleaguered by the advancing horrors of modernity. At least Nigel understands, at least Nigel will turn back the clock. Alistair had always loved Nigel he realised
> @brendan16 said: > > @dr_spyn said: > > > Questions to ask end up in hands of journalist, shock. > > > > > > https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1123901748421300226 > > > > > > > > Friends of Gavin v Friends of Theresa. > > > > That's the kind of fight you could hold inside a phone box. > > Can my right honourable friend confirm what this compelling evidence is and why we can’t be informed what it is? > > Sorry - the matter is closed..... > > Surely there must be a recording of his Telegraph conservation - if MI5 don’t have it I am sure the Chinese govt could oblige!
You don't understand how Five Eyes works - MI5 won't have it but the Americans will...
> > it will start off with asking why the broad band is so crap and theres no decent phone signal, then you cant do internet banking so start to look for a bank and theyve all been closed, but that doesnt matter because the pub is about to close too so theres notthing to spend money on anyway, then the neighbouring town decides to use your road for fly tipping but the polcie cant be arsed to do anything since theyre all on overtime dancing with climate change protestors in London.
> >
> > You get invited to some local events probably the village assembly and a local councillor asks you if you play golf and not wanting to seem antisocial you agree a round and he then turns up with 3 blokes in checked trousers and you start to agree that while you dont like Donald Trump he has a point about some things.
> >
> > Suddenly youre furtively looking at blazers and thinking what to wear to the barn dance. Youre already on the slippy slope to being old
> >
> > Ive bought popcorn :-)
>
> And, it only gets worse. Before long, you're wearing a chalk-striped suit, and turning up to listen to Nigel Farage when he holds a rally in the nearest big town.
Whilst noting, with disdain, the stench of rot and decay and the rudeness of the young people. Not at all like your home, that little piece of old England beleaguered by the advancing horrors of modernity. At least Nigel understands, at least Nigel will turn back the clock. Alistair had always loved Nigel he realised
I think all of you need to spend less time with your dystopian visions.
> @AlastairMeeks said: > > @Sean_F said: > > > > @Alanbrooke said: > > > > > > > > lol > > > > > > > > early days > > > > > > > > it will start off with asking why the broad band is so crap and theres no decent phone signal, then you cant do internet banking so start to look for a bank and theyve all been closed, but that doesnt matter because the pub is about to close too so theres notthing to spend money on anyway, then the neighbouring town decides to use your road for fly tipping but the polcie cant be arsed to do anything since theyre all on overtime dancing with climate change protestors in London. > > > > > > > > You get invited to some local events probably the village assembly and a local councillor asks you if you play golf and not wanting to seem antisocial you agree a round and he then turns up with 3 blokes in checked trousers and you start to agree that while you dont like Donald Trump he has a point about some things. > > > > > > > > Suddenly youre furtively looking at blazers and thinking what to wear to the barn dance. Youre already on the slippy slope to being old > > > > > > > > Ive bought popcorn :-) > > > > > > And, it only gets worse. Before long, you're wearing a chalk-striped suit, and turning up to listen to Nigel Farage when he holds a rally in the nearest big town. > > > > Whilst noting, with disdain, the stench of rot and decay and the rudeness of the young people. Not at all like your home, that little piece of old England beleaguered by the advancing horrors of modernity. At least Nigel understands, at least Nigel will turn back the clock. Alistair had always loved Nigel he realised > > I think all of you need to spend less time with your dystopian visions.
arrr uz yokels know whats coming, the Archers isnt real life
One complication with historical comparisons is that the number of councillors being elected is different following council reorganisation. So, in 1995 there were 12,153 councillors elected, but this time that number is down to 8,804.
This means the 2,018 councillors the Tories lost in 1995 was 16.6% of the total, or the equivalent of 1,462 councillors today (close to Sean Fear's 1,500 threshold, below).
The Tories start with 62.7% of the councillors and in 1995 ended up with 17.0% - so if they do fall to 1995 depths it would imply the loss of 4,023 councillors - they have so much further to fall because 2015 was a much better year than 1991.
I was given a form from the LibDems yesterday about the euros and the London Mayoral election next year, asking me which of the parties I'd vote for in the euros.
However, there is enough space to put what I think of the other parties. So I have availed myself of this opportunity.
> @OnlyLivingBoy said: > > @dyedwoolie said: > > Mustard corduroy trousers are on the blazer banned list too > > Or indeed red trousers of any material.
> @OblitusSumMe said: > One complication with historical comparisons is that the number of councillors being elected is different following council reorganisation. So, in 1995 there were 12,153 councillors elected, but this time that number is down to 8,804. > > This means the 2,018 councillors the Tories lost in 1995 was 16.6% of the total, or the equivalent of 1,462 councillors today (close to Sean Fear's 1,500 threshold, below). > > The Tories start with 62.7% of the councillors and in 1995 ended up with 17.0% - so if they do fall to 1995 depths it would imply the loss of 4,023 councillors - they have so much further to fall because 2015 was a much better year than 1991.
But of course labour and the lib dems polling much lower than 95, so short of a green wave or a Kipper racist surge its hard to see how they lose over 800 or so
> @AlastairMeeks said: > I'm not yet sure whether I'll bother voting in the local elections. I caught the train before 7am so couldn't vote this morning and I probably won't be back in the village until after 9pm. None of the candidates have inspired and I have no important national message to send. The concept of a civic duty is really being stretched for me today.
Had the good fortune to be able to turn up at 7.10 am at my local polling station. Was not the first there. In our patch the vote tells you little about wider trends we mostly vote for individuals regardless of their party labels (my three votes were spread over two parties). I was followed by a man with dog, but have no information as to how the dog voted.
> @MarqueeMark said: > > @dyedwoolie said: > > Mustard corduroy trousers are on the blazer banned list too > > They should be banned under international treaty. Deal with manufacturers as if it were mustard gas they were making....
> @kle4 said: > > @TheWhiteRabbit said: > > > What do we think par is for the Tories? > > > > > > >1000 disaster > > > 600-1000 defeat > > > 400-600 a hit > > > <400 a mere flesh wound > > > > > > > Closer to 600 losses than 1000 will be an OK result. These seats were last fought on GE2015 day when the blue team exceeded expectations. > > > > I wonder how LAB is going to do. > > It might be so that 600 is not absurdly bad, but I think in terms of man on the street assessment anything over 500 looks disastrous even if it is bad but not terrible.
Ahem - the 'man on the streets assessment of the local elections is always 'what election's.
> @dyedwoolie said: > > @Cyclefree said: > > https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1123885152604704770 > > > > > > > > That's a pretty serious accusation to make. If I were on the receiving end I'd be bloody livid. They'd better have the evidence. If Williamson retaliates, some people are going to look bloody stupid. Not least those who appointed Williamson to such a position if he indeed was such a risk. Or are we supposed to believe that he started being such a risk last week or whenever it was? > > > > I don't care about Williamson. But thinking that involving an authoritarian illiberal non-democratic Communist country in vital infrastructure does not fill me with trust in this government's ability to make sensible decisions about war and peace. > > Given he swore on his kids lives if convincing evidence or conviction were forthcoming hed make Jonathon Aitken look popular.
The fact that he is coming out with stuff like “I swear on my kids life” whatever the truth of the matter. leaves a bad taste in my mouth.
> @OnlyLivingBoy said: > > @OnlyLivingBoy said: > > > @AlastairMeeks said: > > > > @AlastairMeeks said: > > > > > > > I'm not yet sure whether I'll bother voting in the local elections. I caught the train before 7am so couldn't vote this morning and I probably won't be back in the village until after 9pm. None of the candidates have inspired and I have no important national message to send. The concept of a civic duty is really being stretched for me today. > > > > > > > > > > > > the village ? > > > > > > > > > > > > youre going all blazer brigade on us young Meeks, next youll be voting Brexit > > > > > > I'm not going to identify exactly where I live! > > > > > > You may rest assured that I will not be voting Brexit. Or worse, wearing a blazer. > > > > Basically, if you are wearing a blazer and it's not because it is part of your school uniform then you are a twat. End of. > > Should add, coach drivers, security guards and others required to wear a blazer for work purposes also exempt from this law.
Don't forget winning The Masters! Though there may be a couple of twats in that pantheon.
> @Theuniondivvie said: > > @OnlyLivingBoy said: > > > @OnlyLivingBoy said: > > > > @AlastairMeeks said: > > > > > @AlastairMeeks said: > > > > > > > > > I'm not yet sure whether I'll bother voting in the local elections. I caught the train before 7am so couldn't vote this morning and I probably won't be back in the village until after 9pm. None of the candidates have inspired and I have no important national message to send. The concept of a civic duty is really being stretched for me today. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > the village ? > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > youre going all blazer brigade on us young Meeks, next youll be voting Brexit > > > > > > > > I'm not going to identify exactly where I live! > > > > > > > > You may rest assured that I will not be voting Brexit. Or worse, wearing a blazer. > > > > > > Basically, if you are wearing a blazer and it's not because it is part of your school uniform then you are a twat. End of. > > > > Should add, coach drivers, security guards and others required to wear a blazer for work purposes also exempt from this law. > > Don't forget winning The Masters! Though there may be a couple of twats in that pantheon.
> > That's a pretty serious accusation to make. If I were on the receiving end I'd be bloody livid. They'd better have the evidence. If Williamson retaliates, some people are going to look bloody stupid. Not least those who appointed Williamson to such a position if he indeed was such a risk. Or are we supposed to believe that he started being such a risk last week or whenever it was?
> >
> > I don't care about Williamson. But thinking that involving an authoritarian illiberal non-democratic Communist country in vital infrastructure does not fill me with trust in this government's ability to make sensible decisions about war and peace.
>
> Given he swore on his kids lives if convincing evidence or conviction were forthcoming hed make Jonathon Aitken look popular.
The fact that he is coming out with stuff like “I swear on my kids life” whatever the truth of the matter. leaves a bad taste in my mouth.
Gavin Williamson seems to both perceive the world and communicate exactly like a future Young Conservative 15 year old.
By the way, I very much hope that Vanilla is giving you guys a refund for this month. Introducing a regression like this and leaving it unfixed for so long is unforgivable.
> @OblitusSumMe said: > One complication with historical comparisons is that the number of councillors being elected is different following council reorganisation. So, in 1995 there were 12,153 councillors elected, but this time that number is down to 8,804. > > This means the 2,018 councillors the Tories lost in 1995 was 16.6% of the total, or the equivalent of 1,462 councillors today (close to Sean Fear's 1,500 threshold, below). > > The Tories start with 62.7% of the councillors and in 1995 ended up with 17.0% - so if they do fall to 1995 depths it would imply the loss of 4,023 councillors - they have so much further to fall because 2015 was a much better year than 1991.
As a benchmark, the results (for England only) in this round of elections was as follows. These are absolute vote shares, not NEV;s.
1991 Con 34%, Lab33%, Lib Dem 22%
1995 Con 24%, Lab 43%, Lib Dem 24%
1999 Con 33%, Lab 33%, Lib Dem 24%
2003 Con 35%, Lab 27%, Lib Dem 26%
2007 Con 38%, Lab 22%, Lib Dem 24%
2011 Con 37%, Lab 32%, Lib Dem 16%
2015 Con 35%, Lab 29%, Lib Dem 10%
1995 excepted, the Conservative vote share has not changed by all that much over 28 years.
In terms of absolute numbers, I'd expect something like Con 30%, Lab 29%, lib Dem 15%.
Vanilla is really a complete mess. I browse this site on the tube, where I have internet connectivity at the stations (usually), but not in between.
What I'd like to be able to do is quote a post and write up a reply, then wait until I'm at the station to hit send. In any sane implementation I'd be able to do that. But vanilla is so lazily written that when I hit the quote button instead of passing through the text that's already right there in the browser, it goes back to the server to fetch the same post that I just hit the button on. Meaning now I have to get to a station, hit quote, write the response, then hit send at the next station.
That's a pretty blatant illustration of the way criticism of the government of Israel is transformed in one easy bound into an antisemitic "Jews control the media" narrative.
But I suppose all's fair in love, war and politics.
For a man that isn't antisemitic, it is crystal clear he has a very "interesting" view of the Jews.
He has views that you would expect an anti-semite to hold. But he isn't one, he assures us. So maybe it's a form of Schrodinger's anti-semitism. Those who are proud of being anti-semitic think he thinks like them because of the things he says and writes, even though he says he isn't an anti-semite and those who don't like anti-semitism can persuade themselves - the mind being an infinitely pliable tool - that despite writing and saying things that an anti-semite would write and say he isn't actually one because he says he isn't.
Much like Brexit. All things to all men, our Jeremy. Really quite impressive for someone whose only previous Parliamentary achievement was winning beard of the year several times.
Blimey! If it continues like this, Brexit could end up getting a greater percentage than labour and the Tories combined. If you combine them with UKIP they're already equal.
> @Chris said: > > @Scott_P said: > > Meanwhile... > > > > https://twitter.com/magnitsky/status/1123886052635217921 > > That's a pretty blatant illustration of the way criticism of the government of Israel is transformed in one easy bound into an antisemitic "Jews control the media" narrative. > > But I suppose all's fair in love, war and politics.
I agree that the journalist should be not be putting his own slant on what he said.
But, not only is it untrue to say that the Israeli government has "extremely high levels of influence" over the BBC, it also gives credence to anti-Semitic conspiracy theories.
You can in theory argue that "Israel controls the world" is not the same as "Jews control the world" but most people will see that as a distinction without much difference.
Reading about how journalists get information from politicians it sounds like Williamson could be the source and yet genuinely believe he didn't give anything away if he's too dim to understand how the journalists work.
For a man that isn't antisemitic, it is crystal clear he has a very "interesting" view of the Jews.
He has views that you would expect an anti-semite to hold. But he isn't one, he assures us. So maybe it's a form of Schrodinger's anti-semitism. Those who are proud of being anti-semitic think he thinks like them because of the things he says and writes, even though he says he isn't an anti-semite and those who don't like anti-semitism can persuade themselves - the mind being an infinitely pliable tool - that despite writing and saying things that an anti-semite would write and say he isn't actually one because he says he isn't.
Much like Brexit. All things to all men, our Jeremy. Really quite impressive for someone whose only previous Parliamentary achievement was winning beard of the year several times.
> PB brains trust... say I'm standing in a multi member ward with a mixture of full slates and individual candidates. How do you work out vote share?
> I know custom is to take the vote share of the highest candidate from each party, but what do you use as the denominator?
Is your real Surname near the start or the end of the alphabet, also are you on your own or part of a slate ?
Near the start of the alphabet. On my own.
So judging from other comments: I should basically ignore the votes for any candidates who are not the most popular of their slate, and use that for the total number of votes?
> @Danny565 said: > YouGov has Labour at 32% with Remain voters, as opposed to a rather pitiful 8% with Leave voters. > > Not that this will stop clueless pundits claiming Labour are seen as "pro-Brexit"...
It's not the pundits who are clueless, but the self-defeating Remain voters voting for Brexit.
"By the way, I very much hope that Vanilla is giving you guys a refund for this month. Introducing a regression like this and leaving it unfixed for so long is unforgivable."
*
It does, however, encourage contributions to be brief and to the point. See what I mean?
> That's a pretty blatant illustration of the way criticism of the government of Israel is transformed in one easy bound into an antisemitic "Jews control the media" narrative.
>
> But I suppose all's fair in love, war and politics.
I agree that the journalist should be not be putting his own slant on what he said.
But, not only is it untrue to say that the Israeli government has "extremely high levels of influence" over the BBC, it also gives credence to anti-Semitic conspiracy theories.
You can in theory argue that "Israel controls the world" is not the same as "Jews control the world" but most people will see that as a distinction without much difference.
This strategy has been exported to the US with some success, where they used it to smear Ilhan Omar for daring to say that a pro-Israel lobby was spending money to influence politics. Forget that spending money to influence politics is pretty much the definition of a lobby, it also kinda sounds a bit like an antisemitic trope, so it's off limits to say.
To me, what's as worrying as the silencing of the criticism of Israel is the potential backlash. If the term "antisemitism" keeps being applied over and over to things which clearly should be acceptable to say, people are going to come away with the impression that antisemitism is okay. We no longer have a term to describe actual hateful discrimination against Jews. I'm half-Jewish by ethnicity, so that really worries me on a personal as well as societal level.
"By the way, I very much hope that Vanilla is giving you guys a refund for this month. Introducing a regression like this and leaving it unfixed for so long is unforgivable."
*
It does, however, encourage contributions to be brief and to the point. See what I mean?
I am glad to see that I'm now being notified when someone replies to a comment of mine, which is helpful. I have mixed feelings on the 'Like' button - it's nice to be able to approve of something without taking up a post, but it can encourage herd behaviour I think...
> YouGov has Labour at 32% with Remain voters, as opposed to a rather pitiful 8% with Leave voters.
>
> Not that this will stop clueless pundits claiming Labour are seen as "pro-Brexit"...
It's not the pundits who are clueless, but the self-defeating Remain voters voting for Brexit.
Not all Remain voters want a second referendum, or believe that one will happen. Many of them thing that Labour's softer Brexit is the optimal outcome.
So if BP win, then it will underline the rate of change across the electorate over this new party.
**cough**
I was making precisely the same point Matthew is last night, the demographics aren’t as good as the Leave vote suggests, but @rcs1000 didn’t believe me...
That was a cracker. I believe quite a few people have tweeted to him that they have indeed remembered this tweet, and he hasn't replied to a single one of them, the ungrateful sod.
"By the way, I very much hope that Vanilla is giving you guys a refund for this month. Introducing a regression like this and leaving it unfixed for so long is unforgivable."
*
It does, however, encourage contributions to be brief and to the point. See what I mean?
I am glad to see that I'm now being notified when someone replies to a comment of mine, which is helpful. I have mixed feelings on the 'Like' button - it's nice to be able to approve of something without taking up a post, but it can encourage herd behaviour I think...
Not much use being made of it; I have just liked your post to see if it works (and of course because of the inherent likeability of the post)
> YouGov has Labour at 32% with Remain voters, as opposed to a rather pitiful 8% with Leave voters.
>
> Not that this will stop clueless pundits claiming Labour are seen as "pro-Brexit"...
It's not the pundits who are clueless, but the self-defeating Remain voters voting for Brexit.
Not all Remain voters want a second referendum, or believe that one will happen. Many of them thing that Labour's softer Brexit is the optimal outcome.
People don't perceive Labour's stance as even supporting a "soft Brexit". We had a YouGov poll just the other day showing 42% see Labour as "anti-Brexit", compared to 13% who see it as "pro-Brexit" (isn't 13% the kind of % that think the moon landings were faked?).
Labour are currently seen as strongly anti-Brexit, and, rightly or wrongly, the Labour MPs for the Stokes and Ashfields and Wigans of this world are going to interpret the European election results as a test of whether they can hold their seats if Labour has an ultra-Remainy stance. If the Brexit party beats Labour in those places (which is highly likely if BP has a 9-point lead nationally), we can forget about those Labour MPs voting against May's deal / to block or delay Brexit again come October.
> That's a pretty blatant illustration of the way criticism of the government of Israel is transformed in one easy bound into an antisemitic "Jews control the media" narrative.
>
> But I suppose all's fair in love, war and politics.
I agree that the journalist should be not be putting his own slant on what he said.
But, not only is it untrue to say that the Israeli government has "extremely high levels of influence" over the BBC, it also gives credence to anti-Semitic conspiracy theories.
You can in theory argue that "Israel controls the world" is not the same as "Jews control the world" but most people will see that as a distinction without much difference.
This strategy has been exported to the US with some success, where they used it to smear Ilhan Omar for daring to say that a pro-Israel lobby was spending money to influence politics. Forget that spending money to influence politics is pretty much the definition of a lobby, it also kinda sounds a bit like an antisemitic trope, so it's off limits to say.
To me, what's as worrying as the silencing of the criticism of Israel is the potential backlash. If the term "antisemitism" keeps being applied over and over to things which clearly should be acceptable to say, people are going to come away with the impression that antisemitism is okay. We no longer have a term to describe actual hateful discrimination against Jews. I'm half-Jewish by ethnicity, so that really worries me on a personal as well as societal level.
Their's criticism of Israel's government and then there's claiming, without any evidence, that they have editorial influence over the BBC. Perhaps he's not an antisemite - but he does come across as paranoid about the power of Israel.
Incidentally, I for one would support him if he decided to abolish the BBC should he become PM.
> @kinabalu said: > @Stereotomy said: > > "By the way, I very much hope that Vanilla is giving you guys a refund for this month. Introducing a regression like this and leaving it unfixed for so long is unforgivable." > > * > > It does, however, encourage contributions to be brief and to the point. See what I mean?
Anything that reduces the number of pasted tweets is to be welcomed.
"By the way, I very much hope that Vanilla is giving you guys a refund for this month. Introducing a regression like this and leaving it unfixed for so long is unforgivable."
*
It does, however, encourage contributions to be brief and to the point. See what I mean?
I am glad to see that I'm now being notified when someone replies to a comment of mine, which is helpful. I have mixed feelings on the 'Like' button - it's nice to be able to approve of something without taking up a post, but it can encourage herd behaviour I think...
Not much use being made of it; I have just liked your post to see if it works (and of course because of the inherent likeability of the post)
Sadly I didn't get a notification for this reply so the system appears to be hit-or-miss. Might be because I'm logged on.
> @AlastairMeeks said: > Are shy Tories back in force? Thats what I'm wondering looking at polls > > At these polling levels the Conservatives must be hoping that they're not so much shy as reclusive.
The euros will be a good test of angry but shy Tory vote resilience I think they'll finish 4th behind BP, lab and change and just ahead of LDs and greens
"I am glad to see that I'm now being notified when someone replies to a comment of mine, which is helpful. I have mixed feelings on the 'Like' button - it's nice to be able to approve of something without taking up a post, but it can encourage herd behaviour I think..."
*
I'm not a fan of having 'likes' on here. It's very facebooky and instagramy.
It will cause the more vulnerable posters to bust a gut seeking popularity - and if they don't get it to lose their animus and possibly self harm.
> That's a pretty blatant illustration of the way criticism of the government of Israel is transformed in one easy bound into an antisemitic "Jews control the media" narrative.
>
> But I suppose all's fair in love, war and politics.
I agree that the journalist should be not be putting his own slant on what he said.
But, not only is it untrue to say that the Israeli government has "extremely high levels of influence" over the BBC, it also gives credence to anti-Semitic conspiracy theories.
You can in theory argue that "Israel controls the world" is not the same as "Jews control the world" but most people will see that as a distinction without much difference.
This strategy has been exported to the US with some success, where they used it to smear Ilhan Omar for daring to say that a pro-Israel lobby was spending money to influence politics. Forget that spending money to influence politics is pretty much the definition of a lobby, it also kinda sounds a bit like an antisemitic trope, so it's off limits to say.
To me, what's as worrying as the silencing of the criticism of Israel is the potential backlash. If the term "antisemitism" keeps being applied over and over to things which clearly should be acceptable to say, people are going to come away with the impression that antisemitism is okay. We no longer have a term to describe actual hateful discrimination against Jews. I'm half-Jewish by ethnicity, so that really worries me on a personal as well as societal level.
There are two broad things going on here:
1) People calling justifiable criticism of Israel anti-Semitism, to protect Israel. 2) People hiding their anti-Semitism behind criticism of Israel, to protect their anti-Semitism.
IMV the evidence for Corbyn to be firmly in the second category is fairly strong.
Dan Hannon always said he wanted Brexit to put him out of a job. He may be right...
I don't think he is at risk even on those numbers given he is top of the Tory slate in the south east, which has 10 seats up for grabs. He might not have much company though.
Are shy Tories back in force? Thats what I'm wondering looking at polls
At these polling levels the Conservatives must be hoping that they're not so much shy as reclusive.
As Stephen Bush says, one of the big mysteries of the local elections is, what will the many people who go to the polling stations today intending to vote for the Brexit Party do when they get a ballot paper without them on it?
> @Recidivist said: > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1123913065613885449 > > > > Dan Hannon always said he wanted Brexit to put him out of a job. He may be right... > > I don't think he is at risk even on those numbers given he is top of the Tory slate in the south east, which has 10 seats up for grabs. He might not have much company though.
Hard to see the Tories getting fewer than 2 in the SE, they will surely poll 16 to 20% here
> @Danny565 said: > Are shy Tories back in force? Thats what I'm wondering looking at polls > > At these polling levels the Conservatives must be hoping that they're not so much shy as reclusive. > > > As Stephen Bush says, one of the big mysteries of the local elections is, what will the many people who go to the polling stations today intending to vote for the Brexit Party do when they get a ballot paper without them on it?
Revert to usual choice or independents if available. Some will no doubt suck up to Battens racist filth
Sorry I didn't reply to your last 'Southwold' email.
Thanks for the details on the B&B. As I have just gutted the house and the builders are currently putting it back together so this could be useful. My wife tells me this is where Latitudes is held.
We have used the campsite a lot. Will never need it again!
A good place to chill out is the tennis courts. No need to play tennis. It is near the water tower, in the middle of the golf course. Cafe, seats, newspapers and bacon sandwiches in the sun.
Re the LD poster sites - From talking to 2 separate individuals, neither of whom were LDs, I was told the candidate won the seat in a recent by election and both were going to vote for him. Quote: ' We like him'. So I suspect there maybe a personal vote situation going on here.
Dan Hannon always said he wanted Brexit to put him out of a job. He may be right... I don't think he is at risk even on those numbers given he is top of the Tory slate in the south east, which has 10 seats up for grabs. He might not have much company though. Hard to see the Tories getting fewer than 2 in the SE, they will surely poll 16 to 20% here
The poll above has the Tories on 13% in the whole south...
Usually the subregions are roughly equal in Con voteshare.
> @brokenwheel said: > > @Recidivist said: > > > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1123913065613885449 > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Dan Hannon always said he wanted Brexit to put him out of a job. He may be right... > > > > > > I don't think he is at risk even on those numbers given he is top of the Tory slate in the south east, which has 10 seats up for grabs. He might not have much company though. > > > > Hard to see the Tories getting fewer than 2 in the SE, they will surely poll 16 to 20% here > > The poll above has the Tories on 13% in the whole south...
Hmmmmm...... that's too low imo, the tribal SE Tory vote will fudge upper teens unless we really are in unprecedented times
> @kinabalu said: > @Freggles said: > > "I am glad to see that I'm now being notified when someone replies to a comment of mine, which is helpful. I have mixed feelings on the 'Like' button - it's nice to be able to approve of something without taking up a post, but it can encourage herd behaviour I think..." > > * > > I'm not a fan of having 'likes' on here. It's very facebooky and instagramy. > > It will cause the more vulnerable posters to bust a gut seeking popularity - and if they don't get it to lose their animus and possibly self harm. > > We're better than that.
I was going to like your post in a spirit of pure passive aggression. But then I thought, no, we are better than that.
> @Danny565 said: > Are shy Tories back in force? Thats what I'm wondering looking at polls > > At these polling levels the Conservatives must be hoping that they're not so much shy as reclusive. > > > As Stephen Bush says, one of the big mysteries of the local elections is, what will the many people who go to the polling stations today intending to vote for the Brexit Party do when they get a ballot paper without them on it?
A similar issue arises for Change UK supporters. My guess is that they will vote LibDem, pushing up the LD share of the vote to the point where they can claim unequivocally to be the voice of Remain and, paradoxically, seal the fate of Change UK.
Comments
1) Resigned for breaking ministerial code/corruption
2) Promoted to chancellor
3) Resigned amid allegations of sexist behaviour/harassment
4) Fired for leaking national security information
5) Currently in post
Amusingly 2) is probably still the least popular among the Tory party membership.
> Shouldn't there be more than one source to print the story?
>
> No. That's a practice followed by some US newspapers but not generally standard practice in Fleet Street. Even in the US, they'll generally make an exception if the anonymous source is a "golden source" like, for example, the Secretary of State for Defence.
Ah okay thanks. Didn't know that. Always struck me as quite a high bar to meet.
> > @AlastairMeeks said:
>
> > I'm not yet sure whether I'll bother voting in the local elections. I caught the train before 7am so couldn't vote this morning and I probably won't be back in the village until after 9pm. None of the candidates have inspired and I have no important national message to send. The concept of a civic duty is really being stretched for me today.
>
>
>
> the village ?
>
>
>
> youre going all blazer brigade on us young Meeks, next youll be voting Brexit
>
> I'm not going to identify exactly where I live!
>
> You may rest assured that I will not be voting Brexit. Or worse, wearing a blazer.
lol
early days
it will start off with asking why the broad band is so crap and theres no decent phone signal, then you cant do internet banking so start to look for a bank and theyve all been closed, but that doesnt matter because the pub is about to close too so theres notthing to spend money on anyway, then the neighbouring town decides to use your road for fly tipping but the polcie cant be arsed to do anything since theyre all on overtime dancing with climate change protestors in London.
You get invited to some local events probably the village assembly and a local councillor asks you if you play golf and not wanting to seem antisocial you agree a round and he then turns up with 3 blokes in checked trousers and you start to agree that while you dont like Donald Trump he has a point about some things.
Suddenly youre furtively looking at blazers and thinking what to wear to the barn dance. Youre already on the slippy slope to being old
Ive bought popcorn :-)
> That means absolutely nothing to me, but there has been a scandal going on here for several year re the local plan (and I don't mean like the usual stuff on local plans). This isn't party political. To put it mildly the neighbouring Tories, Mole Valley, who have some wards in Guildford Borough do not get on with the Guildford Tories (and that really is putting it mildly). The Mole Valley MP used parliamentary privilege to accuse the Leader of the Guildford Tories to be under the influence of Russians, throw in a Cayman Islands development company, a fraud conviction, 80,000 objections to a local plan that still goes through and you get the gist. I could type until next next week.
>
> Bloody hell that is extraordinary. Plus Councils usually dislike neighbourhood plans.
There is a chance of the Tories being wiped out, but only a chance because of the split in the vote between 2 different independent groups and the LDs. However there does seem to have been some informal organisation to stop this happening in some places. For instance in my ward I have no LDs for the first time and 2 Inds from 1 group and 1 Ind from another group working together. I think that is a slam dunk and the 3 Tories will lose, but elsewhere not so organised.
To give you a flavour of the chaos, there was a by election in a place called Ripley a couple of years ago. It is in Guildford Borough, Mole Valley constituency so Mole Valley put up the candidate, who was against the Tory local plan. It had always been Tory. The LDs won with 70% of the vote. The Guildford Tories refused to canvas for the Mole Valley Tory. There was not a hares breath between the views of the Tory and LD. They have both now defected to the same Indy group!
I'm assuming you don't want the other 99 pages of scandal. Private Eye has a few tit bits.
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1123901748421300226
Friends of Gavin v Friends of Theresa.
> > @AlastairMeeks said:
>
> > I'm not yet sure whether I'll bother voting in the local elections. I caught the train before 7am so couldn't vote this morning and I probably won't be back in the village until after 9pm. None of the candidates have inspired and I have no important national message to send. The concept of a civic duty is really being stretched for me today.
>
>
>
> the village ?
>
>
>
> youre going all blazer brigade on us young Meeks, next youll be voting Brexit
>
> I'm not going to identify exactly where I live!
>
> You may rest assured that I will not be voting Brexit. Or worse, wearing a blazer.
Basically, if you are wearing a blazer and it's not because it is part of your school uniform then you are a twat. End of.
> Questions to ask end up in hands of journalist, shock.
>
> https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1123901748421300226
>
> Friends of Gavin v Friends of Theresa.
That's the kind of fight you could hold inside a phone box.
> > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > > @AlastairMeeks said:
> >
> > > I'm not yet sure whether I'll bother voting in the local elections. I caught the train before 7am so couldn't vote this morning and I probably won't be back in the village until after 9pm. None of the candidates have inspired and I have no important national message to send. The concept of a civic duty is really being stretched for me today.
> >
> >
> >
> > the village ?
> >
> >
> >
> > youre going all blazer brigade on us young Meeks, next youll be voting Brexit
> >
> > I'm not going to identify exactly where I live!
> >
> > You may rest assured that I will not be voting Brexit. Or worse, wearing a blazer.
>
> lol
>
> early days
>
> it will start off with asking why the broad band is so crap and theres no decent phone signal, then you cant do internet banking so start to look for a bank and theyve all been closed, but that doesnt matter because the pub is about to close too so theres notthing to spend money on anyway, then the neighbouring town decides to use your road for fly tipping but the polcie cant be arsed to do anything since theyre all on overtime dancing with climate change protestors in London.
>
> You get invited to some local events probably the village assembly and a local councillor asks you if you play golf and not wanting to seem antisocial you agree a round and he then turns up with 3 blokes in checked trousers and you start to agree that while you dont like Donald Trump he has a point about some things.
>
> Suddenly youre furtively looking at blazers and thinking what to wear to the barn dance. Youre already on the slippy slope to being old
>
> Ive bought popcorn :-)
And, it only gets worse. Before long, you're wearing a chalk-striped suit, and turning up to listen to Nigel Farage when he holds a rally in the nearest big town.
> https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1123872831211745282
Ahhhhhh a missive from comrade toynbee of Tuscany, always pleasurable. By which I mean vomit inducingly hypocritical bollocks
https://www.itv.com/news/2019-05-02/bombardier-selling-belfast-business/
DUP won't like it, and neither will Unions.
Sorry - the matter is closed.....
Surely there must be a recording of his Telegraph conservation - if MI5 don’t have it I am sure the Chinese govt could oblige!
> > @CarlottaVance said:
> > https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1123872831211745282
>
> Ahhhhhh a missive from comrade toynbee of Tuscany, always pleasurable. By which I mean vomit inducingly hypocritical bollocks
Yes, she really is a national treasure.
> > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > > @AlastairMeeks said:
> >
> > > I'm not yet sure whether I'll bother voting in the local elections. I caught the train before 7am so couldn't vote this morning and I probably won't be back in the village until after 9pm. None of the candidates have inspired and I have no important national message to send. The concept of a civic duty is really being stretched for me today.
> >
> >
> >
> > the village ?
> >
> >
> >
> > youre going all blazer brigade on us young Meeks, next youll be voting Brexit
> >
> > I'm not going to identify exactly where I live!
> >
> > You may rest assured that I will not be voting Brexit. Or worse, wearing a blazer.
>
> Basically, if you are wearing a blazer and it's not because it is part of your school uniform then you are a twat. End of.
Should add, coach drivers, security guards and others required to wear a blazer for work purposes also exempt from this law.
Short queue at the polling station. Turnout described as "steady"
> > @Alanbrooke said:
> > > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > > > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > >
> > > > I'm not yet sure whether I'll bother voting in the local elections. I caught the train before 7am so couldn't vote this morning and I probably won't be back in the village until after 9pm. None of the candidates have inspired and I have no important national message to send. The concept of a civic duty is really being stretched for me today.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > the village ?
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > youre going all blazer brigade on us young Meeks, next youll be voting Brexit
> > >
> > > I'm not going to identify exactly where I live!
> > >
> > > You may rest assured that I will not be voting Brexit. Or worse, wearing a blazer.
> >
> > lol
> >
> > early days
> >
> > it will start off with asking why the broad band is so crap and theres no decent phone signal, then you cant do internet banking so start to look for a bank and theyve all been closed, but that doesnt matter because the pub is about to close too so theres notthing to spend money on anyway, then the neighbouring town decides to use your road for fly tipping but the polcie cant be arsed to do anything since theyre all on overtime dancing with climate change protestors in London.
> >
> > You get invited to some local events probably the village assembly and a local councillor asks you if you play golf and not wanting to seem antisocial you agree a round and he then turns up with 3 blokes in checked trousers and you start to agree that while you dont like Donald Trump he has a point about some things.
> >
> > Suddenly youre furtively looking at blazers and thinking what to wear to the barn dance. Youre already on the slippy slope to being old
> >
> > Ive bought popcorn :-)
>
> And, it only gets worse. Before long, you're wearing a chalk-striped suit, and turning up to listen to Nigel Farage when he holds a rally in the nearest big town.
Whilst noting, with disdain, the stench of rot and decay and the rudeness of the young people. Not at all like your home, that little piece of old England beleaguered by the advancing horrors of modernity. At least Nigel understands, at least Nigel will turn back the clock. Alistair had always loved Nigel he realised
"Steady" = 'Quiet'
"Brisk" = 'Busy'
> > @dr_spyn said:
>
> > Questions to ask end up in hands of journalist, shock.
>
> >
>
> > https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1123901748421300226
>
>
>
> >
>
> > Friends of Gavin v Friends of Theresa.
>
>
>
> That's the kind of fight you could hold inside a phone box.
>
> Can my right honourable friend confirm what this compelling evidence is and why we can’t be informed what it is?
>
> Sorry - the matter is closed.....
>
> Surely there must be a recording of his Telegraph conservation - if MI5 don’t have it I am sure the Chinese govt could oblige!
You don't understand how Five Eyes works - MI5 won't have it but the Americans will...
> Civic duty complete.
>
> Short queue at the polling station. Turnout described as "steady"
Always brisk, steady or sluggish never anything else. Important political line in the sand
https://twitter.com/magnitsky/status/1123886052635217921
> > @Sean_F said:
>
> > > @Alanbrooke said:
>
> > >
>
> > > lol
>
> > >
>
> > > early days
>
> > >
>
> > > it will start off with asking why the broad band is so crap and theres no decent phone signal, then you cant do internet banking so start to look for a bank and theyve all been closed, but that doesnt matter because the pub is about to close too so theres notthing to spend money on anyway, then the neighbouring town decides to use your road for fly tipping but the polcie cant be arsed to do anything since theyre all on overtime dancing with climate change protestors in London.
>
> > >
>
> > > You get invited to some local events probably the village assembly and a local councillor asks you if you play golf and not wanting to seem antisocial you agree a round and he then turns up with 3 blokes in checked trousers and you start to agree that while you dont like Donald Trump he has a point about some things.
>
> > >
>
> > > Suddenly youre furtively looking at blazers and thinking what to wear to the barn dance. Youre already on the slippy slope to being old
>
> > >
>
> > > Ive bought popcorn :-)
>
> >
>
> > And, it only gets worse. Before long, you're wearing a chalk-striped suit, and turning up to listen to Nigel Farage when he holds a rally in the nearest big town.
>
>
>
> Whilst noting, with disdain, the stench of rot and decay and the rudeness of the young people. Not at all like your home, that little piece of old England beleaguered by the advancing horrors of modernity. At least Nigel understands, at least Nigel will turn back the clock. Alistair had always loved Nigel he realised
>
> I think all of you need to spend less time with your dystopian visions.
arrr uz yokels know whats coming, the Archers isnt real life
> Mustard corduroy trousers are on the blazer banned list too
Or indeed red trousers of any material.
> Meanwhile...
>
> https://twitter.com/magnitsky/status/1123886052635217921
At least there will be one extra job if he gets in, someone to check under the bed for Jews and Chuka
This means the 2,018 councillors the Tories lost in 1995 was 16.6% of the total, or the equivalent of 1,462 councillors today (close to Sean Fear's 1,500 threshold, below).
The Tories start with 62.7% of the councillors and in 1995 ended up with 17.0% - so if they do fall to 1995 depths it would imply the loss of 4,023 councillors - they have so much further to fall because 2015 was a much better year than 1991.
However, there is enough space to put what I think of the other parties. So I have availed myself of this opportunity.
> https://www.theregister.co.uk/2019/05/02/cisco_vulnerabilities/
Bloomberg tech reporting is consistently astonishingly terrible.
> > @dyedwoolie said:
> > Mustard corduroy trousers are on the blazer banned list too
>
> Or indeed red trousers of any material.
Agreed
> Mustard corduroy trousers are on the blazer banned list too
They should be banned under international treaty. Deal with manufacturers as if it were mustard gas they were making....
> One complication with historical comparisons is that the number of councillors being elected is different following council reorganisation. So, in 1995 there were 12,153 councillors elected, but this time that number is down to 8,804.
>
> This means the 2,018 councillors the Tories lost in 1995 was 16.6% of the total, or the equivalent of 1,462 councillors today (close to Sean Fear's 1,500 threshold, below).
>
> The Tories start with 62.7% of the councillors and in 1995 ended up with 17.0% - so if they do fall to 1995 depths it would imply the loss of 4,023 councillors - they have so much further to fall because 2015 was a much better year than 1991.
But of course labour and the lib dems polling much lower than 95, so short of a green wave or a Kipper racist surge its hard to see how they lose over 800 or so
> I'm not yet sure whether I'll bother voting in the local elections. I caught the train before 7am so couldn't vote this morning and I probably won't be back in the village until after 9pm. None of the candidates have inspired and I have no important national message to send. The concept of a civic duty is really being stretched for me today.
Had the good fortune to be able to turn up at 7.10 am at my local polling station. Was not the first there. In our patch the vote tells you little about wider trends we mostly vote for individuals regardless of their party labels (my three votes were spread over two parties). I was followed by a man with dog, but have no information as to how the dog voted.
> > @dyedwoolie said:
> > Mustard corduroy trousers are on the blazer banned list too
>
> They should be banned under international treaty. Deal with manufacturers as if it were mustard gas they were making....
Holt in Norfolk is ground zero mustard cord
> > @TheWhiteRabbit said:
>
> > What do we think par is for the Tories?
>
> >
>
> > >1000 disaster
>
> > 600-1000 defeat
>
> > 400-600 a hit
>
> > <400 a mere flesh wound
>
> >
>
>
>
> Closer to 600 losses than 1000 will be an OK result. These seats were last fought on GE2015 day when the blue team exceeded expectations.
>
>
>
> I wonder how LAB is going to do.
>
> It might be so that 600 is not absurdly bad, but I think in terms of man on the street assessment anything over 500 looks disastrous even if it is bad but not terrible.
Ahem - the 'man on the streets assessment of the local elections is always 'what election's.
> Meanwhile...
>
> twitter.com/magnitsky/status/1123886052635217921
For a man that isn't antisemitic, it is crystal clear he has a very "interesting" view of the Jews.
"Qualcomm will take at least $4.5 billion from Apple after settling mammoth legal battle"
https://www.theregister.co.uk/2019/05/02/qualcomm_apple_fine/
Apple lost, Qualcomm won. It's a bit like Alien versus Predator, but with none of the cute fluffiness.
> > @Cyclefree said:
> > https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1123885152604704770
> >
> >
> >
> > That's a pretty serious accusation to make. If I were on the receiving end I'd be bloody livid. They'd better have the evidence. If Williamson retaliates, some people are going to look bloody stupid. Not least those who appointed Williamson to such a position if he indeed was such a risk. Or are we supposed to believe that he started being such a risk last week or whenever it was?
> >
> > I don't care about Williamson. But thinking that involving an authoritarian illiberal non-democratic Communist country in vital infrastructure does not fill me with trust in this government's ability to make sensible decisions about war and peace.
>
> Given he swore on his kids lives if convincing evidence or conviction were forthcoming hed make Jonathon Aitken look popular.
The fact that he is coming out with stuff like “I swear on my kids life” whatever the truth of the matter. leaves a bad taste in my mouth.
> > @OnlyLivingBoy said:
> > > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > > > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > >
> > > > I'm not yet sure whether I'll bother voting in the local elections. I caught the train before 7am so couldn't vote this morning and I probably won't be back in the village until after 9pm. None of the candidates have inspired and I have no important national message to send. The concept of a civic duty is really being stretched for me today.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > the village ?
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > youre going all blazer brigade on us young Meeks, next youll be voting Brexit
> > >
> > > I'm not going to identify exactly where I live!
> > >
> > > You may rest assured that I will not be voting Brexit. Or worse, wearing a blazer.
> >
> > Basically, if you are wearing a blazer and it's not because it is part of your school uniform then you are a twat. End of.
>
> Should add, coach drivers, security guards and others required to wear a blazer for work purposes also exempt from this law.
Don't forget winning The Masters! Though there may be a couple of twats in that pantheon.
> > @OnlyLivingBoy said:
> > > @OnlyLivingBoy said:
> > > > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > > > > @AlastairMeeks said:
> > > >
> > > > > I'm not yet sure whether I'll bother voting in the local elections. I caught the train before 7am so couldn't vote this morning and I probably won't be back in the village until after 9pm. None of the candidates have inspired and I have no important national message to send. The concept of a civic duty is really being stretched for me today.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > the village ?
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > youre going all blazer brigade on us young Meeks, next youll be voting Brexit
> > > >
> > > > I'm not going to identify exactly where I live!
> > > >
> > > > You may rest assured that I will not be voting Brexit. Or worse, wearing a blazer.
> > >
> > > Basically, if you are wearing a blazer and it's not because it is part of your school uniform then you are a twat. End of.
> >
> > Should add, coach drivers, security guards and others required to wear a blazer for work purposes also exempt from this law.
>
> Don't forget winning The Masters! Though there may be a couple of twats in that pantheon.
All sportsmen covered by the work wear exemption.
> One complication with historical comparisons is that the number of councillors being elected is different following council reorganisation. So, in 1995 there were 12,153 councillors elected, but this time that number is down to 8,804.
>
> This means the 2,018 councillors the Tories lost in 1995 was 16.6% of the total, or the equivalent of 1,462 councillors today (close to Sean Fear's 1,500 threshold, below).
>
> The Tories start with 62.7% of the councillors and in 1995 ended up with 17.0% - so if they do fall to 1995 depths it would imply the loss of 4,023 councillors - they have so much further to fall because 2015 was a much better year than 1991.
As a benchmark, the results (for England only) in this round of elections was as follows. These are absolute vote shares, not NEV;s.
1991 Con 34%, Lab33%, Lib Dem 22%
1995 Con 24%, Lab 43%, Lib Dem 24%
1999 Con 33%, Lab 33%, Lib Dem 24%
2003 Con 35%, Lab 27%, Lib Dem 26%
2007 Con 38%, Lab 22%, Lib Dem 24%
2011 Con 37%, Lab 32%, Lib Dem 16%
2015 Con 35%, Lab 29%, Lib Dem 10%
1995 excepted, the Conservative vote share has not changed by all that much over 28 years.
In terms of absolute numbers, I'd expect something like Con 30%, Lab 29%, lib Dem 15%.
https://twitter.com/vanilla/status/1120779370275188743
"He’s just the unluckiest anti-racism campaigner in history…"
LOL
What I'd like to be able to do is quote a post and write up a reply, then wait until I'm at the station to hit send. In any sane implementation I'd be able to do that. But vanilla is so lazily written that when I hit the quote button instead of passing through the text that's already right there in the browser, it goes back to the server to fetch the same post that I just hit the button on. Meaning now I have to get to a station, hit quote, write the response, then hit send at the next station.
> Meanwhile...
>
> https://twitter.com/magnitsky/status/1123886052635217921
That's a pretty blatant illustration of the way criticism of the government of Israel is transformed in one easy bound into an antisemitic "Jews control the media" narrative.
But I suppose all's fair in love, war and politics.
Much like Brexit. All things to all men, our Jeremy. Really quite impressive for someone whose only previous Parliamentary achievement was winning beard of the year several times.
Not that this will stop clueless pundits claiming Labour are seen as "pro-Brexit"...
> > @Scott_P said:
> > Meanwhile...
> >
> > https://twitter.com/magnitsky/status/1123886052635217921
>
> That's a pretty blatant illustration of the way criticism of the government of Israel is transformed in one easy bound into an antisemitic "Jews control the media" narrative.
>
> But I suppose all's fair in love, war and politics.
I agree that the journalist should be not be putting his own slant on what he said.
But, not only is it untrue to say that the Israeli government has "extremely high levels of influence" over the BBC, it also gives credence to anti-Semitic conspiracy theories.
You can in theory argue that "Israel controls the world" is not the same as "Jews control the world" but most people will see that as a distinction without much difference.
Sounds plausible to me.
*Sp bigote = mustache
> > @williamglenn said:
> > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1123913065613885449
>
> Labour at 32% with Remain voters, as opposed to a rather pitiful 8% with Leave voters.
>
> Not that this will stop clueless pundits claiming Labour are seen as "pro-Brexit"...
Dangerous for them at this particular election if their bulk remain support decide to send s message and back an unequivocal PV party
> https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1123913065613885449
It's the London meedja establishment to blame, according to London based media owner Bastani.
https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1123916408730132491
So if BP win, then it will underline the rate of change across the electorate over this new party.
"Labour at 32% with Remain voters, as opposed to a rather pitiful 8% with Leave voters.
Not that this will stop clueless pundits claiming Labour are seen as "pro-Brexit"..."
*
The kiss of death would be if they are seen as Pro by Remainers and Anti by Leavers.
So judging from other comments: I should basically ignore the votes for any candidates who are not the most popular of their slate, and use that for the total number of votes?
https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/916803894793162752
> YouGov has Labour at 32% with Remain voters, as opposed to a rather pitiful 8% with Leave voters.
>
> Not that this will stop clueless pundits claiming Labour are seen as "pro-Brexit"...
It's not the pundits who are clueless, but the self-defeating Remain voters voting for Brexit.
"By the way, I very much hope that Vanilla is giving you guys a refund for this month. Introducing a regression like this and leaving it unfixed for so long is unforgivable."
*
It does, however, encourage contributions to be brief and to the point. See what I mean?
To me, what's as worrying as the silencing of the criticism of Israel is the potential backlash. If the term "antisemitism" keeps being applied over and over to things which clearly should be acceptable to say, people are going to come away with the impression that antisemitism is okay. We no longer have a term to describe actual hateful discrimination against Jews. I'm half-Jewish by ethnicity, so that really worries me on a personal as well as societal level.
I was making precisely the same point Matthew is last night, the demographics aren’t as good as the Leave vote suggests, but @rcs1000 didn’t believe me...
> His predictions on polls are not infallible:
>
> https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/916803894793162752
That was a cracker.
I believe quite a few people have tweeted to him that they have indeed remembered this tweet, and he hasn't replied to a single one of them, the ungrateful sod.
Labour are currently seen as strongly anti-Brexit, and, rightly or wrongly, the Labour MPs for the Stokes and Ashfields and Wigans of this world are going to interpret the European election results as a test of whether they can hold their seats if Labour has an ultra-Remainy stance. If the Brexit party beats Labour in those places (which is highly likely if BP has a 9-point lead nationally), we can forget about those Labour MPs voting against May's deal / to block or delay Brexit again come October.
Incidentally, I for one would support him if he decided to abolish the BBC should he become PM.
> @Stereotomy said:
>
> "By the way, I very much hope that Vanilla is giving you guys a refund for this month. Introducing a regression like this and leaving it unfixed for so long is unforgivable."
>
> *
>
> It does, however, encourage contributions to be brief and to the point. See what I mean?
Anything that reduces the number of pasted tweets is to be welcomed.
> Are shy Tories back in force? Thats what I'm wondering looking at polls
>
> At these polling levels the Conservatives must be hoping that they're not so much shy as reclusive.
The euros will be a good test of angry but shy Tory vote resilience
I think they'll finish 4th behind BP, lab and change and just ahead of LDs and greens
"I am glad to see that I'm now being notified when someone replies to a comment of mine, which is helpful. I have mixed feelings on the 'Like' button - it's nice to be able to approve of something without taking up a post, but it can encourage herd behaviour I think..."
*
I'm not a fan of having 'likes' on here. It's very facebooky and instagramy.
It will cause the more vulnerable posters to bust a gut seeking popularity - and if they don't get it to lose their animus and possibly self harm.
We're better than that.
1) People calling justifiable criticism of Israel anti-Semitism, to protect Israel.
2) People hiding their anti-Semitism behind criticism of Israel, to protect their anti-Semitism.
IMV the evidence for Corbyn to be firmly in the second category is fairly strong.
> https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1123913065613885449
>
>
>
> Dan Hannon always said he wanted Brexit to put him out of a job. He may be right...
>
> I don't think he is at risk even on those numbers given he is top of the Tory slate in the south east, which has 10 seats up for grabs. He might not have much company though.
Hard to see the Tories getting fewer than 2 in the SE, they will surely poll 16 to 20% here
> Are shy Tories back in force? Thats what I'm wondering looking at polls
>
> At these polling levels the Conservatives must be hoping that they're not so much shy as reclusive.
>
>
> As Stephen Bush says, one of the big mysteries of the local elections is, what will the many people who go to the polling stations today intending to vote for the Brexit Party do when they get a ballot paper without them on it?
Revert to usual choice or independents if available. Some will no doubt suck up to Battens racist filth
Sorry I didn't reply to your last 'Southwold' email.
Thanks for the details on the B&B. As I have just gutted the house and the builders are currently putting it back together so this could be useful. My wife tells me this is where Latitudes is held.
We have used the campsite a lot. Will never need it again!
A good place to chill out is the tennis courts. No need to play tennis. It is near the water tower, in the middle of the golf course. Cafe, seats, newspapers and bacon sandwiches in the sun.
Re the LD poster sites - From talking to 2 separate individuals, neither of whom were LDs, I was told the candidate won the seat in a recent by election and both were going to vote for him. Quote: ' We like him'. So I suspect there maybe a personal vote situation going on here.
Usually the subregions are roughly equal in Con voteshare.
Including me.
> > @Recidivist said:
>
> > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1123913065613885449
>
>
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Dan Hannon always said he wanted Brexit to put him out of a job. He may be right...
>
> >
>
> > I don't think he is at risk even on those numbers given he is top of the Tory slate in the south east, which has 10 seats up for grabs. He might not have much company though.
>
>
>
> Hard to see the Tories getting fewer than 2 in the SE, they will surely poll 16 to 20% here
>
> The poll above has the Tories on 13% in the whole south...
Hmmmmm...... that's too low imo, the tribal SE Tory vote will fudge upper teens unless we really are in unprecedented times
> @Freggles said:
>
> "I am glad to see that I'm now being notified when someone replies to a comment of mine, which is helpful. I have mixed feelings on the 'Like' button - it's nice to be able to approve of something without taking up a post, but it can encourage herd behaviour I think..."
>
> *
>
> I'm not a fan of having 'likes' on here. It's very facebooky and instagramy.
>
> It will cause the more vulnerable posters to bust a gut seeking popularity - and if they don't get it to lose their animus and possibly self harm.
>
> We're better than that.
I was going to like your post in a spirit of pure passive aggression. But then I thought, no, we are better than that.
> Are shy Tories back in force? Thats what I'm wondering looking at polls
>
> At these polling levels the Conservatives must be hoping that they're not so much shy as reclusive.
>
>
> As Stephen Bush says, one of the big mysteries of the local elections is, what will the many people who go to the polling stations today intending to vote for the Brexit Party do when they get a ballot paper without them on it?
A similar issue arises for Change UK supporters. My guess is that they will vote LibDem, pushing up the LD share of the vote to the point where they can claim unequivocally to be the voice of Remain and, paradoxically, seal the fate of Change UK.