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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What better from pages for TMay on the day of the big local elections
The conventional wisdom is that you don’t want negative stories about your party to be making the headlines on the day of any elections. Everything is about turnout, particularly with the locals, and all efforts should be made to ensure that your base and your activists are out there enthusiastically going to the polls and getting out the vote.
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I know custom is to take the vote share of the highest candidate from each party, but what do you use as the denominator?
> PB brains trust... say I'm standing in a multi member ward with a mixture of full slates and individual candidates. How do you work out vote share?
> I know custom is to take the vote share of the highest candidate from each party, but what do you use as the denominator?
The general approach is to take the set of numbers that most support the point you wish to make.
> > @Freggles said:
> > PB brains trust... say I'm standing in a multi member ward with a mixture of full slates and individual candidates. How do you work out vote share?
> > I know custom is to take the vote share of the highest candidate from each party, but what do you use as the denominator?
>
> The general approach is to take the set of numbers that most support the point you wish to make.
lol
> PB brains trust... say I'm standing in a multi member ward with a mixture of full slates and individual candidates. How do you work out vote share?
> I know custom is to take the vote share of the highest candidate from each party, but what do you use as the denominator?
Is your real Surname near the start or the end of the alphabet, also are you on your own or part of a slate ?
> The good thing about the timing of the sacking is that it can't unravel today. It might be a very different story in a fortnight's time but the locals are over then
Unravel just in time for the Euro elections to be equally disastrous for the Tories as the local elections look like being, you mean ?
> > @Pulpstar said:
> > The good thing about the timing of the sacking is that it can't unravel today. It might be a very different story in a fortnight's time but the locals are over then
>
> Unravel just in time for the Euro elections to be equally disastrous for the Tories as the local elections look like being, you mean ?
Nah, She will sack Grayling and the Tories will win the Euros with a landslide.;)
> > @Pulpstar said:
> > The good thing about the timing of the sacking is that it can't unravel today. It might be a very different story in a fortnight's time but the locals are over then
>
> Unravel just in time for the Euro elections to be equally disastrous for the Tories as the local elections look like being, you mean ?
If the Euro elections are only equally disastrous as the locals for the Tories then that would be a triumph for May.
> Firm and tough - after 2 years of weak and vacillating Brexit negotiations in which she has allowed the EU to walk all over her extracting myriad concessions for absolutely no quid pro quo ??? I think it will take a lot more than sacking Williamson on what appears circumstantial evidence to convey that kind of image. Fortunately, even she can’t last that long.
She'll remain as long as Boris is seen as the successor.
> > @Pulpstar said:
> > The good thing about the timing of the sacking is that it can't unravel today. It might be a very different story in a fortnight's time but the locals are over then
>
> Unravel just in time for the Euro elections to be equally disastrous for the Tories as the local elections look like being, you mean ?
The euros are a lifetime away in the May cycle
From May's position though, to have kept Williamson on when it may well have leaked that he was the leak would have been suicidal loyalty to a man desperate for her job.
> > @AmpfieldAndy said:
> > Firm and tough - after 2 years of weak and vacillating Brexit negotiations in which she has allowed the EU to walk all over her extracting myriad concessions for absolutely no quid pro quo ??? I think it will take a lot more than sacking Williamson on what appears circumstantial evidence to convey that kind of image. Fortunately, even she can’t last that long.
>
> She'll remain as long as Boris is seen as the successor.
Maybe but it’s only 8 months until she faces another VONC which she can’t possibly win as things stand now. I doubt it will come to that myself. A bad night tonight, bad Euro elections and whatever comes from the Brexit negotiations with Labour will be bad news for her - Deal or no deal. I think she’ll be gone before the Tory Party conference myself.
> > @AmpfieldAndy said:
> > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > The good thing about the timing of the sacking is that it can't unravel today. It might be a very different story in a fortnight's time but the locals are over then
> >
> > Unravel just in time for the Euro elections to be equally disastrous for the Tories as the local elections look like being, you mean ?
>
> Nah, She will sack Grayling and the Tories will win the Euros with a landslide.;)
If only....
https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/7561/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-what-better-from-pages-for-tmay-on-the-day-of-the-big-local-el#latest ?
So much easier to use and clearer to read
> > @AmpfieldAndy said:
> > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > The good thing about the timing of the sacking is that it can't unravel today. It might be a very different story in a fortnight's time but the locals are over then
> >
> > Unravel just in time for the Euro elections to be equally disastrous for the Tories as the local elections look like being, you mean ?
>
> If the Euro elections are only equally disastrous as the locals for the Tories then that would be a triumph for May.
Don’t see it. Brexit Party votes will be votes the Tories need in a General Election. They are not going to come back with May and Hammond still running things.
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1123658508610699264
I presume they've all been the hardest working councillors over the past 12 months.
What could possibly go wrong?
Happy Local Elections Day - AKA Happy Evisceration Of The Conservative Party Day (Part One)
https://twitter.com/ascphiled/status/1123830593152856064?s=21
We'll all hate them by the time they've finished.
I don't know if that is typical.
https://www.iam-media.com/finance/huawei-owns-future-and-thats-why-its-here-stay
> Quiet at the polling station
>
> As they were crossing off my name I noticed that I was the first one on the page to be crossed off, and that nobody was crossed off on the two pages before the one my name appeared on. There must have been about 30 names on the sheet, so turnout at 8:15am can be estimated at just over 1%.
>
> I don't know if that is typical.
Can't see why any Brexit-voting Conservative supporter (so that's around 70% of their voters) would turn out to these elections but Lab and Lib-Dem voters should be motivated as usual.
https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/lord-prescott-former-deputy-pm-ranted-at-jewish-journalist-labour-antisemitism-all-about-israel-1.483611
> A Brexit Party candidate who was pro IRA on the list alongside one whose mother was murdered at Enniskillen
>
> https://twitter.com/ascphiled/status/1123830593152856064
>
>
>
> Could the Brexit Party be the ones finally to unite our country?
>
> Yes.
>
> We'll all hate them by the time they've finished.
Why should they be the odd party out?
> PB brains trust... say I'm standing in a multi member ward with a mixture of full slates and individual candidates. How do you work out vote share?
> I know custom is to take the vote share of the highest candidate from each party, but what do you use as the denominator?
The sum of the vote shares of all the highest candidates?
> Ha, yes. The locals look merely awful, the euros apocalyptically bad
If the Tories were to pledge that all of their MEPs would refuse to take up their Parliament seats, Sinn Fein style, and also refuse to take any money, on the basis that we are definitely leaving, eventually, then it might help them in the Euro elections. They could challenge Farage and his band of gravy-train enthusiasts to do the same and it would demonstrate a determination to leave rather than to stay indefinitely.
https://twitter.com/ascphiled/status/1123831176307855362?s=21
> > @Freggles said:
> > PB brains trust... say I'm standing in a multi member ward with a mixture of full slates and individual candidates. How do you work out vote share?
> > I know custom is to take the vote share of the highest candidate from each party, but what do you use as the denominator?
>
> The sum of the vote shares of all the highest candidates?
That is, I think, the preferred method. In contrast the official results often provide a sum of all candidates of Party A over the sum of all votes, which effectively weights down parties with less than a full slate.
Edit: and that quote is quite a non-sequitor: "put principle of democracy above personal past" - what does that (even) mean?
All is fine, no secrets...can this keeping running?
> > @AmpfieldAndy said:
> > > @Pulpstar said:
> > > The good thing about the timing of the sacking is that it can't unravel today. It might be a very different story in a fortnight's time but the locals are over then
> >
> > Unravel just in time for the Euro elections to be equally disastrous for the Tories as the local elections look like being, you mean ?
>
> The euros are a lifetime away in the May cycle
The mayfly only has - at best - one day in which to achieve all it needs. One species - Dolania americana - has the shortest adult lifespan of any mayfly: the adult females of the species live for less than five minutes.
The Brexit Party - bringing communities together everywhere.
btw are we the only two fuckers actually using the blockquote system properly?
> FWIW, I wrote a brief piece on Huawei and why the company’s here to stay for one of our platforms a couple of months back. Basically, it owns the future:
>
> https://www.iam-media.com/finance/huawei-owns-future-and-thats-why-its-here-stay
The problem the rest of the world has is that Huawei are the leaders in 5G and there is little chance that anyone else can catch up..
Ironically I don't think the US has any suitable competitor unless they include Nokia / Ericsson as US rather than Scandinavian companies
The lack of 5G patents and technology from Western companies should be a wake up call on how we are running our own R&D systems.
It seemed to me to be the point of The Brexit Party at this stage to be a collection of people who had only anger at the handling of Brexit in common, and any widely contrasting opinions were a positive example of that. This case could be a good selling point, or it could end in tears I guess
Gavin Williamson
Fireplace salesman and
tory chickenhawk.
You lied about Huawei
And now it's the highway.
A-ha!
That was your catchphrase.
EJ Thribb (17½)
Very quiet, apparently, and clerk agreed with me that asking for ID (we're a 'trial' area) was a waste of time.
> FWIW, I wrote a brief piece on Huawei and why the company’s here to stay for one of our platforms a couple of months back. Basically, it owns the future:
>
>
>
> https://www.iam-media.com/finance/huawei-owns-future-and-thats-why-its-here-stay
>
> Thanks. Useful update. I had forgotten Nokia was still around in some technology spaces.
>
> The lack of 5G patents and technology from Western companies should be a wake up call on how we are running our own R&D systems.
Who is we? Plessey? Racal? Marconi? British firms no longer exist or
are at best shadows of their former selves. Our only choice is to buy
foreign kit, whether with American or Chinese back doors.
Support of native industries matters, as does support of R&D; we all
remember SeanT contrasting China's massive research expenditure
(and I guess we can now see it was not all about nicking Western
technology) with George Osborne decimating our own.
But given where we are and that MPs have so far refused to vote for Brexit I suppose we will find out whether the country feels strongly enough about it to make them the government.
In the Euros of course there is a much greater choice. Just submitted my postal vote application for that as I'm out of the country on 23rd May. Haven't decided where my vote is going, but I will certainly vote.
On a more positive note, the Tour de Yorkshire's coming past our house today, time to put out the bunting!
https://twitter.com/mpc_1968/status/1123664946133381122
"On topic, the Conservatives and Labour have both gone out of their way to test the loyalty of their voters at the upcoming elections. Given that in practice in most places the choice is between them and the Lib Dems, the results tonight look likely to be an unpopularity contest."
*
And now in reply here's me saying ...
"Yes, it would appear so. Although there really is no good reason why the Brexit fault line in our politics should impact the local elections. Is there a Eurosceptic way to collect the bins? Not really. Or even to put them out. Can't think that Mark Francois does it any differently to, say, Heidi Allen. OK there might well be different sorts of waste in Mark's bin as compared to Heidi's, probably will be, but so what, why even get involved in speculation on pointless and essentially irrelevant matters such as that?"
> Quiet at the polling station
>
> As they were crossing off my name I noticed that I was the first one on the page to be crossed off, and that nobody was crossed off on the two pages before the one my name appeared on. There must have been about 30 names on the sheet, so turnout at 8:15am can be estimated at just over 1%.
>
> I don't know if that is typical.
>
>
>
> For the first time in 19 years of being able to vote, through all the local, Euro and general elections, I'm not going to in this election. There are no local pressing issues (to me) to make me vote on that basis - council, Conservative led, seems fine, I'm fairly happy with it and our ward is a mix of longstanding Labour and Conservative candidates. Nationally, votes will be interpreted as supporting party policy and with today's choice of Conservative, Labour and Socialist Labour (they still exist?) I'm not willing to support any. I'd turn out and vote LD, Green or a local independent for sure.
>
> In the Euros of course there is a much greater choice. Just submitted my postal vote application for that as I'm out of the country on 23rd May. Haven't decided where my vote is going, but I will certainly vote.
>
> On a more positive note, the Tour de Yorkshire's coming past our house today, time to put out the bunting!
Our turnout looked similar.
Counting tonight, so should have a result quickly!
https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1123852175040499720
As far as I can tell, from Western eyes, it's a mess.
In terms of NEV, I'd expect something like Labour 30%, Con 29%, Lib Dem 14%, Green 6%, UKIP 5%, Others 16%.
Looking also at Kuenssberg's snidey headline "Gavin Williamson: Now he's told to 'go away and shut up'" and the article itself it seems the Beeb did not love Williamson.
And still the oddest thing is Williamson saying that a "thorough and formal inquiry" would have "vindicated" him; why does he take it as read there is not going to be one? And why is he not clamouring for one?
I've just found some old draft posts of mine in Vanilla's interface. One of those was in the following thread from September 2013:
"Suddenly politics has got exciting and harder to predict"
Well, that was right. In fact, it feels like a different, more innocent world ...
http://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/641/
> Is there no side of the argument that JRM cannot get on the wrong side of?
>
> https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1123852175040499720
JRM does have a point. The furore over the leak from this committee
masks that there was no real secret leaked (if you have secretly decided
to buy a Ford Focus, the car dealer will know, as will your neighbours)
and the substantive issues of whether there is a risk to security directly
or indirectly through withdrawal of American cooperation.
Also JRM's twitter feed is plugging his new book on the Victorians,
so he has clearly given up fighting the stereotype.
> > @TOPPING said:
> > Is there no side of the argument that JRM cannot get on the wrong side of?
> >
> > https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1123852175040499720
>
> JRM does have a point. The furore over the leak from this committee
> masks that there was no real secret leaked (if you have secretly decided
> to buy a Ford Focus, the car dealer will know, as will your neighbours)
> and the substantive issues of whether there is a risk to security directly
> or indirectly through withdrawal of American cooperation.
>
> Also JRM's twitter feed is plugging his new book on the Victorians,
> so he has clearly given up fighting the stereotype.
I think its entirely possible to think GW is a knob AND giving our 5G network to a communist state enterprise is a bad idea.
> Nah, She will sack Grayling and the Tories will win the Euros with a landslide.;)
I was told the only reason Grayling was still in a job was in case Brexit ever happened and they need a fall guy to implement it.
Biden's first gaffe of this cycle ?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-says-china-is-not-competition-for-us-prompting-pushback-from-republicans/2019/05/01/4ae4e738-6c68-11e9-a66d-a82d3f3d96d5_story.html
>1000 disaster
600-1000 defeat
400-600 a hit
<400 a mere flesh wound
We all know she has made mistakes. But she was dealt an impossible hand by Cameron, made worse by the disastrous General Election. The Conservatives are totally unruly on Europe. They always have been and it only took Cameron's ill-judged decision to lift the lid on Pandora's Box.
Whatever Piers Morgan might think, I doubt anyone would have done better than Theresa May. An unpopular viewpoint perhaps, but I believe it's true. It's very easy in hindsight to say, 'she should have done this or that.'
> I continue to believe that writing off Theresa May is a schoolboy error. And there are a lot of those around in the Conservative Party. Schoolboys I mean.
'
Not sure what you mean - do you think she will fight another GE ?
https://www.spiked-online.com/2019/04/22/why-im-standing-for-the-brexit-party/
> I continue to believe that writing off Theresa May is a schoolboy error. And there are a lot of those around in the Conservative Party. Schoolboys I mean.
>
> We all know she has made mistakes. But she was dealt an impossible hand by Cameron, made worse by the disastrous General Election. The Conservatives are totally unruly on Europe. They always have been and it only took Cameron's ill-judged decision to lift the lid on Pandora's Box.
>
> Whatever Piers Morgan might think, I doubt anyone would have done better than Theresa May. An unpopular viewpoint perhaps, but I believe it's true. It's very easy in hindsight to say, 'she should have done this or that.'
I agree and apart from the ERG headbangers most CON MPs
> > @Mysticrose said:
> > I continue to believe that writing off Theresa May is a schoolboy error. And there are a lot of those around in the Conservative Party. Schoolboys I mean.
> '
>
> Not sure what you mean - do you think she will fight another GE ?
>
>
I don't rule it out.
Let's suppose she's about to get the fudge-deal through with Labour. What then? Will she really want to cede the 2nd stage to that prize prick Boris Johnson?
https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1123871698460213249
> What do we think par is for the Tories?
>
> >1000 disaster
> 600-1000 defeat
> 400-600 a hit
> <400 a mere flesh wound
>
Closer to 600 losses than 1000 will be an OK result. These seats were last fought on GE2015 day when the blue team exceeded expectations.
I wonder how LAB is going to do.
> > @TGOHF said:
> > > @Mysticrose said:
> > > I continue to believe that writing off Theresa May is a schoolboy error. And there are a lot of those around in the Conservative Party. Schoolboys I mean.
> > '
> >
> > Not sure what you mean - do you think she will fight another GE ?
> >
> >
>
> I don't rule it out.
>
> Let's suppose she's about to get the fudge-deal through with Labour. What then? Will she really want to cede the 2nd stage to that prize prick Boris Johnson?
Gordon Brown thought that peeving all his MPs, the voters and well everyone wouldn't matter if they wielded the sword of righteousness - but gravity comes around sooner or later.
May can stay on as long as she can - depends how much more permanent damage she wants to do to the Conservative party.
> What do we think par is for the Tories?
>
> >1000 disaster
> 600-1000 defeat
> 400-600 a hit
> <400 a mere flesh wound
>
Michael Portillo has a famous motto:
"Who dares wins".
WE dare!
WE will WIN!!