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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The threat of Corbyn becoming PM is irrelevant unless LAB back
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The threat of Corbyn becoming PM is irrelevant unless LAB backs a second referendum
Lots of discussion ahead of tomorrow’s meeting of Labours National Executive Committee which will decide on the party’s policy on Brexit for the May 23rd euro elections. The big question is whether a referendum will be offered and under what terms.
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Like all good investigators.....
Whether centrists like me like it or not, the Lib Dems have only benefited marginally from being anti-Brexit, and now the Chuka squad have come along to divide said vote even further.
Corbyn is doing moderately well out of today’s dynamic, which sees the Tory vote collapsing. The key metric under FPTP is not the total share of the vote, but the difference between Labour and Tory votes. Labour is now half a length ahead of the Tories.
Having said all that, I continue to believe that a moderate, anti-Brexit (or at least, anti the fantastic interpretation of Brexit) leader would have Labour up in the 40s. Corbyn depresses the Labour vote, it’s just that the Tory Brexit policy depresses *their* vote even more.
I know that when my postal vote arrives mid next week I will be putting a peg on my nose and voting Labour - otherwise my vote will be wasted.
So anyone voting Labour should do so on that basis.
Frankly, I can see no good basis for voting for any of the parties. They are either rancid or divided or both or pursuing absurd policies or utterly irrelevant.
I will be washing my hair instead.
The Guardian...
Upsetting tale...
2003
https://www.theguardian.com/theobserver/2003/jul/06/features.magazine17
Any region with 5 or more is likely to see at least one other party get a seat, unless both Labour and Brexit Party poll both poll above 30% nationally.
However,
I won’t vote Tory, and perhaps never will again (I even voted for Hague FFS);
Won’t vote Brexit and obviously won’t vote UKIP;
Labour have been taken over by a far left sect, so I can’t vote for them;
That leaves Lib Dems, CUK, and Greens.
The polling suggests there are up to 30% of us, but we are doomed to split our vote ineffectually because the 3 numpties cannot get their shit together. It’s the Remain campaign all over again.
Should we get a General Election before Brexit, however, different story. At this point they will ask themselves the following question -
"If we pivot to Ref/Remain, are we confident that it will significantly increase our chance of winning?"
Answer comes there YES, as IMO it will, and the juicy Socialism/Remain double is ON.
So presumably only a bad deal (defined how?) and only negotiated by the Tories (so if a UUP member took part, then it becomes not a Tory deal - in fact, what about the Conservatives? Are they also the Tories, or are Tories merely right wing Conservatives).
Whilst I don't, if you want to Remain, don't vote Labour. Your only options (nationally) are CHUK, Lib Dem or Green.
In London the numpties will probably win 3 seats between them. Were they organised and working as a group they would probably be winning 5 or 6 of them...
People died ...
Please answer that question as I suspect the answer is that you will need to vote Labour unless your working out is very different from mine.
https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1122314100363579398?s=21
Edit. I just noticed it is a completely different article although with the same basic message
And do you really think Farage winning 2 of the 3 North East seats would be a good idea?
https://twitter.com/mike84625280/status/1122844548152086529
https://twitter.com/edward_smiles/status/1122852327520636928
For every election the outcome is the same whether you vote or not. Therefore no single vote counts.
But if no vote counts it follows that every vote counts the same and therefore - since the outcome is decided by votes - all votes count.
I'll be voting anyway. Looking forward to it.
Yes 24 beats 19 but both are so crap does it matter ?
When do Con MPs try again - after the locals or after the Euros ?
Jezza more concerned with being PM and the latest Kraftwerk gig
https://twitter.com/search?src=typd&q=@ideanpod
The route to a socialist government is via offering to remain a member of a club that prohibits socialism.
Geeks can argue about the distant French overseas territories, which have been excluded from the calculation.
- Actively supports Revoke & Remain, which seriously pisses off some of its current support and more of its former support; or
- Actively supports such Brexit deal as it can negotiate, which would broadly be the existing one but with more rule-taking, which will seriously piss off a lot of its current support; or
- Takes no official position in the referendum, leaving it at the mercy of events, splitting the party and risking some kind of Leave vote winning again.
None of these is a palatable option. By far the best outcome for Labour is for the Tories to deliver a crappy Brexit before Labour comes to power (although that will still prompt demands for Rejoin among passionate Remainers).
In any case, the locals probably won't be all *that* bad. The Tories made around net gains in this cycle of seats each of the last five rounds, including 2011 and 2015 in office. It's an extremely high base and even the loss of 1000 seats would leave the party well up on this set on the position going into 2007. Given that both Labour, the LDs and UKIP are suffering their own problems, and BXT hadn't organised in time, the risk of huge losses is mitigated against to some extent.
By contrast, the Euros are likely to be an unmitigated disaster.
Would confirm some thoughts on your judgement.
Sense you have the Trump thing in mind but this is serious business. I don't think they will mess about. They want to GTTO.
So where does that leave my vote with a Starmer-led Labour Party?
With a lot of thinking to do. Of course Cons could make it easier for me by electing Francois or someone similar (Johnson, Raab, etc) as leader.
https://www.collinsdictionary.com/dictionary/english/almost
In the locals it's impossible for the 3 main parties to collectively do that badly as in a lot of the country they represent all the candidates so between them will get 99.99% of the vote (and it's only that low as some papers will be intentionally spoilt).
“Fuck knows. I’m past caring. It’s like the living dead in here.”
Diana Abbott,
John McDonnell.
Owen Smith?
Of course a lot would depend on the circumstances of any election.
But the chances of that happening are slight.
The deficit has just come in at its lowest for what, !8 years? And Debt as % of GDP is now falling steadily.
So why on earth is he proposing new taxes - it's totally unnecessary.
And even if his proposals were the "right thing" to do for inter-generational fairness it is blindingly obvious that they will be politically toxic and cost masses of votes.
Plus they would never get through the Commons even with a Con Majority Govt - many Con MPs would never vote for them.
The whole thing feels like what you would expect to hear from an academic / ivory tower - the Conservatives need to distance themselves as far as possible from anything like this.