For the reasons set out in my previous post I think that the Brexit party will end up with about 30% having largely scooped the pool of the leavers. The remain vote will be much more scattered between parties stretching from the creatively ambiguous (Labour) to the outright remain (CUK). It will surprise me if they do not top the poll.
I do actually wonder if we are seeing the death throes of the Conservative Party. I don’t think they’ll make 20%.
UKIP csme first and the Tories only got 23% in the 2014 European Parliament elections yet won an overall majority at the next general election the following year.
The only way it will be the death throes of the Tory Party is if they are in Governmemt still by the next general election and we are still in the EU
Or if we are out of the EU and the Conservatives are blamed for any ensuing disruption or decline.
what ensuing disruption or decline ?
HMG has already said over 80% of firms are ready for a no deal The downturn on investment etc is already baked in to our base economic prospects Wages and employment are increasing Growth is about the EU level despite all the "bad news" The public finances are the best theyve been since 2001
this constant flogging of a dead horse is just dull
odds are given the current impact on depressing investment, theres more of an upside when a decision is made one way or the other than a down side.
Though storm clouds are gathering for world trade, while we navel gaze:
A german study is predicting this round of Euro elections will be a real kick for the established parties as voters use it to express their deep discontent. Study took place in Germany France, Greece UK , Italy, Netherlands, Austria Poland Sweden, Denmark Spain and Hungary.
Study predicts the non mainstream parties will get 52% of the vote. looks like we're very much in tune with Europe after all.
on the other hand what I suspect from that list when matched with the german forecast, is that potentially a very different Europe could emerge. If election result pummel the establishment then a wave of reforms could actually create a different style EU one which isnt the usual stitch up by the main parties and the bureaucracy.
A german study is predicting this round of Euro elections will be a real kick for the established parties as voters use it to express their deep discontent. Study took place in Germany France, Greece UK , Italy, Netherlands, Austria Poland Sweden, Denmark Spain and Hungary.
Study predicts the non mainstream parties will get 52% of the vote. looks like we're very much in tune with Europe after all.
Hardly surprising due to the complete horlicks brexiteers have made of our exit.
However, there is real desire for change in the EU and the new EU Parliament looks as if it is going to be a lot more confrontational within itself with huge internal divisions
For the reasons set out in my previous post I think that the Brexit party will end up with about 30% having largely scooped the pool of the leavers. The remain vote will be much more scattered between parties stretching from the creatively ambiguous (Labour) to the outright remain (CUK). It will surprise me if they do not top the poll.
I do actually wonder if we are seeing the death throes of the Conservative Party. I don’t think they’ll make 20%.
UKIP csme first and the Tories only got 23% in the 2014 European Parliament elections yet won an overall majority at the next general election the following year.
The only way it will be the death throes of the Tory Party is if they are in Governmemt still by the next general election and we are still in the EU
Or if we are out of the EU and the Conservatives are blamed for any ensuing disruption or decline.
what ensuing disruption or decline ?
HMG has already said over 80% of firms are ready for a no deal The downturn on investment etc is already baked in to our base economic prospects Wages and employment are increasing Growth is about the EU level despite all the "bad news" The public finances are the best theyve been since 2001
this constant flogging of a dead horse is just dull
odds are given the current impact on depressing investment, theres more of an upside when a decision is made one way or the other than a down side.
A german study is predicting this round of Euro elections will be a real kick for the established parties as voters use it to express their deep discontent. Study took place in Germany France, Greece UK , Italy, Netherlands, Austria Poland Sweden, Denmark Spain and Hungary.
Study predicts the non mainstream parties will get 52% of the vote. looks like we're very much in tune with Europe after all.
on the other hand what I suspect from that list when matched with the german forecast, is that potentially a very different Europe could emerge. If election result pummel the establishment then a wave of reforms could actually create a different style EU one which isnt the usual stitch up by the main parties and the bureaucracy.
So you are saying that the EU elections are democratic and these elections could lead to significant changes in how the EU works?
My better half surprised me at tea yesterday by announcing that she is going to vote for the Brexit party in the Euros. She is genuinely cross about us not leaving yet. She has no interest in who the candidate is or whether he or she is elected. She simply wants to record her irritation.
If the Tories are losing people like her (typically on the wet side of the party) this may be something not much short of catastrophic for them. Personally, I haven't made up my mind whether to boycott the election or follow suite but the Tories will not be getting my vote either. Can anyone think of a reason to vote for a Tory in these elections? Mid teens seems to assume a loyalty and force of habit that has been stretched to breaking point.
I would think that if you were a Leaver who wanted a negotiated exit from the EU then the Conservatives would be the only choice at the EU elections.
Although I don't think it's at all possible now, a large public vote for the Conservatives in these elections would potentially provide enough impetus to pass the Withdrawal Agreement.
Yes, the Brexit Party seems to not consider the WA a proper Brexit, so is in effect the No Deal party.
There is certainly a constituency for that, but less radical Leavers should vote Conservative or Labour.
While in terms of MPs, former Labour members dominate CHUK, at MEP level it seems to be more Pro EU former Tories, Stephen Dorrell in West Midlands for example and Rachel Johnson in the SW. With Heidi Allen as leader, I see Pro EU conservatives as their best potential pool of voters. The Tories are going to lose rats off both sides of the ship.
The Brexit Party seems to not consider THIS WA a proper Brexit. But do we know whether they would accept the WA wthout the backstop?
Of course not. Just as Labour's mission is always to be a tad less Brexity than the Tories, the Bxt Party's is always to be a tad more.
For the reasons set out in my previous post I think that the Brexit party will end up with about 30% having largely scooped the pool of the leavers. The remain vote will be much more scattered between parties stretching from the creatively ambiguous (Labour) to the outright remain (CUK). It will surprise me if they do not top the poll.
I do actually wonder if we are seeing the death throes of the Conservative Party. I don’t think they’ll make 20%.
UKIP csme first and the Tories only got 23% in the 2014 European Parliament elections yet won an overall majority at the next general election the following year.
The only way it will be the death throes of the Tory Party is if they are in Governmemt still by the next general election and we are still in the EU
Or if we are out of the EU and the Conservatives are blamed for any ensuing disruption or decline.
what ensuing disruption or decline ?
HMG has already said over 80% of firms are ready for a no deal The downturn on investment etc is already baked in to our base economic prospects Wages and employment are increasing Growth is about the EU level despite all the "bad news" The public finances are the best theyve been since 2001
this constant flogging of a dead horse is just dull
odds are given the current impact on depressing investment, theres more of an upside when a decision is made one way or the other than a down side.
Though storm clouds are gathering for world trade, while we navel gaze:
if youd bothered to listen there has been enough of us predicting that a world slowdown would appear around now as the economic cycle tends to work on a10 year gap and the last one was in 2009. However so many remainers were determined that this should be because of Brexit that they didnt bother to look beyond their little england noses.
As for navel gazing certainly, but thats no different than France Italy or Germany atm if you follow their press. Evceryone is waiting for the states or China to do something.
My better half surprised me at tea yesterday by announcing that she is going to vote for the Brexit party in the Euros. She is genuinely cross about us not leaving yet. She has no interest in who the candidate is or whether he or she is elected. She simply wants to record her irritation.
If the Tories are losing people like her (typically on the wet side of the party) this may be something not much short of catastrophic for them. Personally, I haven't made up my mind whether to boycott the election or follow suite but the Tories will not be getting my vote either. Can anyone think of a reason to vote for a Tory in these elections? Mid teens seems to assume a loyalty and force of habit that has been stretched to breaking point.
I would think that if you were a Leaver who wanted a negotiated exit from the EU then the Conservatives would be the only choice at the EU elections.
Although I don't think it's at all possible now, a large public vote for the Conservatives in these elections would potentially provide enough impetus to pass the Withdrawal Agreement.
Yes, the Brexit Party seems to not consider the WA a proper Brexit, so is in effect the No Deal party.
There is certainly a constituency for that, but less radical Leavers should vote Conservative or Labour.
While in terms of MPs, former Labour members dominate CHUK, at MEP level it seems to be more Pro EU former Tories, Stephen Dorrell in West Midlands for example and Rachel Johnson in the SW. With Heidi Allen as leader, I see Pro EU conservatives as their best potential pool of voters. The Tories are going to lose rats off both sides of the ship.
The Brexit Party seems to not consider THIS WA a proper Brexit. But do we know whether they would accept the WA wthout the backstop?
Of course not. Just as Labour's mission is always to be a tad less Brexity than the Tories, the Bxt Party's is always to be a tad more.
So now that Labour and the Tories are both in favour of Brexit, can we only say the result is a Remain majority if TIG, SNP, LD, and Green get 51%+?
For the reasons set out in my previous post I think that the Brexit party will end up with about 30% having largely scooped the pool of the leavers. The remain vote will be much more scattered between parties stretching from the creatively ambiguous (Labour) to the outright remain (CUK). It will surprise me if they do not top the poll.
I do actually wonder if we are seeing the death throes of the Conservative Party. I don’t think they’ll make 20%.
UKIP csme first and the Tories only got 23% in the 2014 European Parliament elections yet won an overall majority at the next general election the following year.
The only way it will be the death throes of the Tory Party is if they are in Governmemt still by the next general election and we are still in the EU
Or if we are out of the EU and the Conservatives are blamed for any ensuing disruption or decline.
what ensuing disruption or decline ?
HMG has already said over 80% of firms are ready for a no deal The downturn on investment etc is already baked in to our base economic prospects Wages and employment are increasing Growth is about the EU level despite all the "bad news" The public finances are the best theyve been since 2001
this constant flogging of a dead horse is just dull
odds are given the current impact on depressing investment, theres more of an upside when a decision is made one way or the other than a down side.
Though storm clouds are gathering for world trade, while we navel gaze:
if youd bothered to listen there has been enough of us predicting that a world slowdown would appear around now as the economic cycle tends to work on a10 year gap and the last one was in 2009. However so many remainers were determined that this should be because of Brexit that they didnt bother to look beyond their little england noses.
As for navel gazing certainly, but thats no different than France Italy or Germany atm if you follow their press. Evceryone is waiting for the states or China to do something.
No, it doesn't surprise me. It is part of the business cycle, but timing may not be good for elections here and across the pond.
So many parties and none of them I feel like voting for.
UKIP - if they weren't fruitcakes and racists before, what's left of them certainly is now. Lab - I'm neither a Jew hater nor do I want to see the country turn into Venezuela, so no thanks. Con - Piss poor on Brexit while lacking the piss to organise an up in a brewery, fighting like ferrets in a sack, and with a nasty authoritarian streak (porn license) rearing its head too. Pass. Lib dem - So pro europe they should just get a room already. I might have time for a Norman Lamb led party that takes the view of leavers into account. This ain't it. Green - I'm not an eco loon. Pass. SNP - Not Scottish. Plaid - Nor Welsh. Brexit - I'm pro the result of the 2016 referendum being carried out, but afraid a vote for Farage's merry men is an economy destroying crash out scenario. I can't in good conscience vote for that. Change UK - Change what? Change the clocks back to a few years ago to discredited "third way" blairism? No thanks.
So what do we think? Spoil the ballot paper? Where exactly does one draw a phallus to be sure it won't be counted as a vote?
Agreed. I’m sort of leaning towards Brexit in the European elections to send a message (there are enough sensible Tory mps to do a dealbut they need a good kick up the arse) and Tory for the local council as they do a good job
So you’ll vote for the party that says any deal would be a betrayal in order to encourage a deal ?
@DavidL wife has a similar view (and political position) to me
A german study is predicting this round of Euro elections will be a real kick for the established parties as voters use it to express their deep discontent. Study took place in Germany France, Greece UK , Italy, Netherlands, Austria Poland Sweden, Denmark Spain and Hungary.
Study predicts the non mainstream parties will get 52% of the vote. looks like we're very much in tune with Europe after all.
on the other hand what I suspect from that list when matched with the german forecast, is that potentially a very different Europe could emerge. If election result pummel the establishment then a wave of reforms could actually create a different style EU one which isnt the usual stitch up by the main parties and the bureaucracy.
So you are saying that the EU elections are democratic and these elections could lead to significant changes in how the EU works?
certainly, that,s a reasonable possibility and one to be welcomed, depending of course on what reform looks like. More power delegated back to local communities would be welcome in my book.
For the reasons set out in my previous post I think that the Brexit party will end up with about 30% having largely scooped the pool of the leavers. The remain vote will be much more scattered between parties stretching from the creatively ambiguous (Labour) to the outright remain (CUK). It will surprise me if they do not top the poll.
I do actually wonder if we are seeing the death throes of the Conservative Party. I don’t think they’ll make 20%.
UKIP csme first and the Tories only got 23% in the 2014 European Parliament elections yet won an overall majority at the next general election the following year.
The only way it will be the death throes of the Tory Party is if they are in Governmemt still by the next general election and we are still in the EU
Or if we are out of the EU and the Conservatives are blamed for any ensuing disruption or decline.
what ensuing disruption or decline ?
HMG has already said over 80% of firms are ready for a no deal The downturn on investment etc is already baked in to our base economic prospects Wages and employment are increasing Growth is about the EU level despite all the "bad news" The public finances are the best theyve been since 2001
this constant flogging of a dead horse is just dull
odds are given the current impact on depressing investment, theres more of an upside when a decision is made one way or the other than a down side.
For the reasons set out in my previous post I think that the Brexit party will end up with about 30% having largely scooped the pool of the leavers. The remain vote will be much more scattered between parties stretching from the creatively ambiguous (Labour) to the outright remain (CUK). It will surprise me if they do not top the poll.
I do actually wonder if we are seeing the death throes of the Conservative Party. I don’t think they’ll make 20%.
UKIP csme first and the Tories only got 23% in the 2014 European Parliament elections yet won an overall majority at the next general election the following year.
The only way it will be the death throes of the Tory Party is if they are in Governmemt still by the next general election and we are still in the EU
Or if we are out of the EU and the Conservatives are blamed for any ensuing disruption or decline.
what ensuing disruption or decline ?
HMG has already said over 80% of firms are ready for a no deal The downturn on investment etc is already baked in to our base economic prospects Wages and employment are increasing Growth is about the EU level despite all the "bad news" The public finances are the best theyve been since 2001
this constant flogging of a dead horse is just dull
odds are given the current impact on depressing investment, theres more of an upside when a decision is made one way or the other than a down side.
Well that is all right then but on the off-chance the government was correct, it will be blamed.
My better half surprised me at tea yesterday by announcing that she is going to vote for the Brexit party in the Euros. She is genuinely cross about us not leaving yet. She has no interest in who the candidate is or whether he or she is elected. She simply wants to record her irritation.
If the Tories are losing people like her (typically on the wet side of the party) this may be something not much short of catastrophic for them. Personally, I haven't made up my mind whether to boycott the election or follow suite but the Tories will not be getting my vote either. Can anyone think of a reason to vote for a Tory in these elections? Mid teens seems to assume a loyalty and force of habit that has been stretched to breaking point.
I would think that if you were a Leaver who wanted a negotiated exit from the EU then the Conservatives would be the only choice at the EU elections.
Although I don't think it's at all possible now, a large public vote for the Conservatives in these elections would potentially provide enough impetus to pass the Withdrawal Agreement.
Yes, the Brexit Party seems to not consider the WA a proper Brexit, so is in effect the No Deal party.
There is certainly a constituency for that, but less radical Leavers should vote Conservative or Labour.
While in terms of MPs, former Labour members dominate CHUK, at MEP level it seems to be more Pro EU former Tories, Stephen Dorrell in West Midlands for example and Rachel Johnson in the SW. With Heidi Allen as leader, I see Pro EU conservatives as their best potential pool of voters. The Tories are going to lose rats off both sides of the ship.
The Brexit Party seems to not consider THIS WA a proper Brexit. But do we know whether they would accept the WA wthout the backstop?
Of course not. Just as Labour's mission is always to be a tad less Brexity than the Tories, the Bxt Party's is always to be a tad more.
So now that Labour and the Tories are both in favour of Brexit, can we only say the result is a Remain majority if TIG, SNP, LD, and Green get 51%+?
I expect the main comparison will be between LD+CU+Nats+Green and UKIP+BXT. Voting for either of the large parties isn't sending a clear message on Brexit and will be seen as the residue loyalty vote for the old party system.
For the reasons set out in my previous post I think that the Brexit party will end up with about 30% having largely scooped the pool of the leavers. The remain vote will be much more scattered between parties stretching from the creatively ambiguous (Labour) to the outright remain (CUK). It will surprise me if they do not top the poll.
I do actually wonder if we are seeing the death throes of the Conservative Party. I don’t think they’ll make 20%.
UKIP csme first and the Tories only got 23% in the 2014 European Parliament elections yet won an overall majority at the next general election the following year.
The only way it will be the death throes of the Tory Party is if they are in Governmemt still by the next general election and we are still in the EU
Or if we are out of the EU and the Conservatives are blamed for any ensuing disruption or decline.
what ensuing disruption or decline ?
HMG has already said over 80% of firms are ready for a no deal The downturn on investment etc is already baked in to our base economic prospects Wages and employment are increasing Growth is about the EU level despite all the "bad news" The public finances are the best theyve been since 2001
this constant flogging of a dead horse is just dull
odds are given the current impact on depressing investment, theres more of an upside when a decision is made one way or the other than a down side.
Though storm clouds are gathering for world trade, while we navel gaze:
if youd bothered to listen there has been enough of us predicting that a world slowdown would appear around now as the economic cycle tends to work on a10 year gap and the last one was in 2009. However so many remainers were determined that this should be because of Brexit that they didnt bother to look beyond their little england noses.
As for navel gazing certainly, but thats no different than France Italy or Germany atm if you follow their press. Evceryone is waiting for the states or China to do something.
No, it doesn't surprise me. It is part of the business cycle, but timing may not be good for elections here and across the pond.
agree with you on timing in US, but by the time we hit a UK election the cycle will have turned and politicians will be offering more jam today.
My better half surprised me at tea yesterday by announcing that she is going to vote for the Brexit party in the Euros. She is genuinely cross about us not leaving yet. She has no interest in who the candidate is or whether he or she is elected. She simply wants to record her irritation.
If the Tories are losing people like her (typically on the wet side of the party) this may be something not much short of catastrophic for them. Personally, I haven't made up my mind whether to boycott the election or follow suite but the Tories will not be getting my vote either. Can anyone think of a reason to vote for a Tory in these elections? Mid teens seems to assume a loyalty and force of habit that has been stretched to breaking point.
I would think that if you were a Leaver who wanted a negotiated exit from the EU then the Conservatives would be the only choice at the EU elections.
Although I don't think it's at all possible now, a large public vote for the Conservatives in these elections would potentially provide enough impetus to pass the Withdrawal Agreement.
Yes, the Brexit Party seems to not consider the WA a proper Brexit, so is in effect the No Deal party.
There is certainly a constituency for that, but less radical Leavers should vote Conservative or Labour.
While in terms of MPs, former Labour members dominate CHUK, at MEP level it seems to be more Pro EU former Tories, Stephen Dorrell in West Midlands for example and Rachel Johnson in the SW. With Heidi Allen as leader, I see Pro EU conservatives as their best potential pool of voters. The Tories are going to lose rats off both sides of the ship.
The Brexit Party seems to not consider THIS WA a proper Brexit. But do we know whether they would accept the WA wthout the backstop?
Of course not. Just as Labour's mission is always to be a tad less Brexity than the Tories, the Bxt Party's is always to be a tad more.
So now that Labour and the Tories are both in favour of Brexit, can we only say the result is a Remain majority if TIG, SNP, LD, and Green get 51%+?
I expect the main comparison will be between LD+CU+Nats+Green and UKIP+BXT. Voting for either of the large parties isn't sending a clear message on Brexit and will be seen as the residue loyalty vote for the old party system.
For the reasons set out in my previous post I think that the Brexit party will end up with about 30% having largely scooped the pool of the leavers. The remain vote will be much more scattered between parties stretching from the creatively ambiguous (Labour) to the outright remain (CUK). It will surprise me if they do not top the poll.
I do actually wonder if we are seeing the death throes of the Conservative Party. I don’t think they’ll make 20%.
UKIP csme first and the Tories only got 23% in the 2014 European Parliament elections yet won an overall majority at the next general election the following year.
The only way it will be the death throes of the Tory Party is if they are in Governmemt still by the next general election and we are still in the EU
Or if we are out of the EU and the Conservatives are blamed for any ensuing disruption or decline.
what ensuing disruption or decline ?
HMG has already said over 80% of firms are ready for a no deal The downturn on investment etc is already baked in to our base economic prospects Wages and employment are increasing Growth is about the EU level despite all the "bad news" The public finances are the best theyve been since 2001
this constant flogging of a dead horse is just dull
odds are given the current impact on depressing investment, theres more of an upside when a decision is made one way or the other than a down side.
...said from the safety of your armchair.
I work. It's a chair.
I didn't mean that you didn't work. I meant it in an armchair general sense that you wont be accountable when it goes wrong; it'll be politicians carrying the can and all the current rabid advocates of no deal will melt away rather than accept any blame.
Even the politician advocates are nowadays careful to mention "of course there will be some short term disruption" to try and cover their backs.
My better half surprised me at tea yesterday by announcing that she is going to vote for the Brexit party in the Euros. She is genuinely cross about us not leaving yet. She has no interest in who the candidate is or whether he or she is elected. She simply wants to record her irritation.
If the Tories are losing people like her (typically on the wet side of the party) this may be something not much short of catastrophic for them. Personally, I haven't made up my mind whether to boycott the election or follow suite but the Tories will not be getting my vote either. Can anyone think of a reason to vote for a Tory in these elections? Mid teens seems to assume a loyalty and force of habit that has been stretched to breaking point.
So she is one of the 2% of Scots supporting the Farage party?
I think it will turn out to be a lot more than that. Most Tories in Scotland support Ruth who is our bulwark against more Indy nonsense but most Tories in Scotland also support leave and don't agree with her on that. The vote will split but quite how is unclear. 38% of Scotland voted leave including a surprising number of Nationalist supporters. These are well stocked waters in which to fish although Farage is more of an English phenomenon.
Ruth is a no-user , happy to be lined up with likes of Farage , sectarians etc. She is only looking after herself , Scotland is way down her list of priorities. She will have lifeboat on losers list as she will be voted out. 62% voted remain and the march towards independence will continue regardless of the Westminster sockpuppets.
My better half surprised me at tea yesterday by announcing that she is going to vote for the Brexit party in the Euros. She is genuinely cross about us not leaving yet. She has no interest in who the candidate is or whether he or she is elected. She simply wants to record her irritation.
If the Tories are losing people like her (typically on the wet side of the party) this may be something not much short of catastrophic for them. Personally, I haven't made up my mind whether to boycott the election or follow suite but the Tories will not be getting my vote either. Can anyone think of a reason to vote for a Tory in these elections? Mid teens seems to assume a loyalty and force of habit that has been stretched to breaking point.
I would think that if you were a Leaver who wanted a negotiated exit from the EU then the Conservatives would be the only choice at the EU elections.
Although I don't think it's at all possible now, a large public vote for the Conservatives in these elections would potentially provide enough impetus to pass the Withdrawal Agreement.
Yes, the Brexit Party seems to not consider the WA a proper Brexit, so is in effect the No Deal party.
There is certainly a constituency for that, but less radical Leavers should vote Conservative or Labour.
While in terms of MPs, former Labour members dominate CHUK, at MEP level it seems to be more Pro EU former Tories, Stephen Dorrell in West Midlands for example and Rachel Johnson in the SW. With Heidi Allen as leader, I see Pro EU conservatives as their best potential pool of voters. The Tories are going to lose rats off both sides of the ship.
I disagree.
If they vote Tory or Labour there will be no pressure to change
Voting Brexit has the potential to scare the Tories, at least, into getting a deal passed. However it will only happen if Labour are scared as well. If they peel off significant Labour votes as well there might be momentum to transact.
My better half surprised me at tea yesterday by announcing that she is going to vote for the Brexit party in the Euros. She is genuinely cross about us not leaving yet. She has no interest in who the candidate is or whether he or she is elected. She simply wants to record her irritation.
If the Tories are losing people like her (typically on the wet side of the party) this may be something not much short of catastrophic for them. Personally, I haven't made up my mind whether to boycott the election or follow suite but the Tories will not be getting my vote either. Can anyone think of a reason to vote for a Tory in these elections? Mid teens seems to assume a loyalty and force of habit that has been stretched to breaking point.
I would think that if you were a Leaver who wanted a negotiated exit from the EU then the Conservatives would be the only choice at the EU elections.
Although I don't think it's at all possible now, a large public vote for the Conservatives in these elections would potentially provide enough impetus to pass the Withdrawal Agreement.
Yes, the Brexit Party seems to not consider the WA a proper Brexit, so is in effect the No Deal party.
There is certainly a constituency for that, but less radical Leavers should vote Conservative or Labour.
While in terms of MPs, former Labour members dominate CHUK, at MEP level it seems to be more Pro EU former Tories, Stephen Dorrell in West Midlands for example and Rachel Johnson in the SW. With Heidi Allen as leader, I see Pro EU conservatives as their best potential pool of voters. The Tories are going to lose rats off both sides of the ship.
The Brexit Party seems to not consider THIS WA a proper Brexit. But do we know whether they would accept the WA wthout the backstop?
Of course not. Just as Labour's mission is always to be a tad less Brexity than the Tories, the Bxt Party's is always to be a tad more.
So now that Labour and the Tories are both in favour of Brexit, can we only say the result is a Remain majority if TIG, SNP, LD, and Green get 51%+?
I expect the main comparison will be between LD+CU+Nats+Green and UKIP+BXT. Voting for either of the large parties isn't sending a clear message on Brexit and will be seen as the residue loyalty vote for the old party system.
I think Leave parties have in built advantage in that comparison as Labour has its own constituency vote who won’t go elsewhere, and with the Tories in Government it is also chance to vote against them no matter what your opinion of Brexit - those votes could go any which way.
For the reasons set out in my previous post I think that the Brexit party will end up with about 30% having largely scooped the pool of the leavers. The remain vote will be much more scattered between parties stretching from the creatively ambiguous (Labour) to the outright remain (CUK). It will surprise me if they do not top the poll.
I do actually wonder if we are seeing the death throes of the Conservative Party. I don’t think they’ll make 20%.
UKIP csme first and the Tories only got 23% in the 2014 European Parliament elections yet won an overall majority at the next general election the following year.
The only way it will be the death throes of the Tory Party is if they are in Governmemt still by the next general election and we are still in the EU
Or if we are out of the EU and the Conservatives are blamed for any ensuing disruption or decline.
what ensuing disruption or decline ?
HMG has already said over 80% of firms are ready for a no deal The downturn on investment etc is already baked in to our base economic prospects Wages and employment are increasing Growth is about the EU level despite all the "bad news" The public finances are the best theyve been since 2001
this constant flogging of a dead horse is just dull
odds are given the current impact on depressing investment, theres more of an upside when a decision is made one way or the other than a down side.
...said from the safety of your armchair.
I work. It's a chair.
I didn't mean that you didn't work. I meant it in an armchair general sense that you wont be accountable when it goes wrong; it'll be politicians carrying the can and all the current rabid advocates of no deal will melt away rather than accept any blame.
That's what most politicans do, there's not a monopoly on it. I dont see the streets clogged with LDs saying we fucked up Uni fees, theyve legged it.
A postgraduate degree now needed to significantly increase earnings, by 30 earnings are 40% above non graduates for postgraduates but just 21% above non graduates for graduates alone.
Between the ages of 16 and 64 postgraduates earn £40,000 on average compared to £34 000 for graduates and £24 000 for non graduates
What were the results of the EU referendums in 2012 and 2013?
What's the trend, friend?
It looks as though support for Leave fell by 20%, from 2012-15, but Leave still won. So, it's unwise to simply assume that things will keep moving in the way that you want.
Just imagine - in parallel universe we are all moaning about how pathetic Ed Milliband is. Only a fool would introduce this property or green tax? The guys an idiot - how could it get any worse?
The Brexit Party seems to not consider THIS WA a proper Brexit. But do we know whether they would accept the WA wthout the backstop?
I would accept being pleasured in the French manner by Taylor Swift but that's just as irrelevant as neither that offer nor an unbackstopped WA will ever be available.
Undoubtedly. But it still makes the point to the EU that their formulation of the Irish border problem is how they've ballsed up the negotiations.
***Trigger Warning: a Beastly Internet Ex-HMF Musket-Bearing Poster is About to Respond***
You lot of ******* ****** voted for Brexit and are now insisting on a flavour of Brexit which can not, as you, others on here, and the ERG picture it, be delivered. The backstop is a vital element of the ongoing relationship between the UK & NI and the RoI.
The Brexit Party seems to not consider THIS WA a proper Brexit. But do we know whether they would accept the WA wthout the backstop?
I would accept being pleasured in the French manner by Taylor Swift but that's just as irrelevant as neither that offer nor an unbackstopped WA will ever be available.
Undoubtedly. But it still makes the point to the EU that their formulation of the Irish border problem is how they've ballsed up the negotiations.
***Trigger Warning: a Beastly Internet Ex-HMF Musket-Bearing Poster is About to Respond***
You lot of ******* ****** voted for Brexit and are now insisting on a flavour of Brexit which can not, as you, others on here, and the ERG picture it, be delivered. The backstop is a vital element of the ongoing relationship between the UK & NI and the RoI.
Just imagine - in parallel universe we are all moaning about how pathetic Ed Milliband is. Only a fool would introduce this property or green tax? The guys an idiot - how could it get any worse?
A postgraduate degree now needed to significantly increase earnings, by 30 earnings are 40% above non graduates for postgraduates but just 21% above non graduates for graduates alone.
Between the ages of 16 and 64 postgraduates earn £40,000 on average compared to £34 000 for graduates and £24 000 for non graduates
Assume that is an average given you do not need a degree to earn good money in reality
Obviously the difference will actually be bigger as earnings in graduate and post graduate careers will be hindered by years of non earning whilst studying.
I wonder what the best earning non graduate positions are?
These people really are focused only 1 step in front of themselves aren't they? It reminds of when I assumed people like JRM and co were capable of realising no Brexit was a possibility if they voted down the WA, especially as they were told that was possible, and yet at the time of MV2.5/3 they suddenly did vote for it precisely as no Brexit might happen if it did not pass. It turned out even when people were telling them what would come next they didn't know what would come next.
And yet more proof that of that tendency with plans to just pretend the EU will ignore the backstop again, following the last plan which was May goes and then, magically, the problems go away.
The EU is going to have to accept that it can't demand a neighbour has EU law rule over its territory with no possibility of exit. Even if they manage to get a parliament to agree it is an unsustainable system. Would they accept British rule over Ireland or Flanders? Of course not.
There is the possibility of exit - agreeing an FTA, which is what both Britain and the EU want.
I don't care what colour, race, sexuality, gender or religion my political representatives are. I just want them to be competent, honest and to have been fairly elected. I feel similarly about those working in the police and health services.
On radio 4 this morning, Simon Woolley the director of Operation Black Vote was demanding all-black short lists for political representatives in areas with higher BME populations, since those communities could not trust the system if it didn't represent them (ie look like them).
A postgraduate degree now needed to significantly increase earnings, by 30 earnings are 40% above non graduates for postgraduates but just 21% above non graduates for graduates alone.
Between the ages of 16 and 64 postgraduates earn £40,000 on average compared to £34 000 for graduates and £24 000 for non graduates
Assume that is an average given you do not need a degree to earn good money in reality
Obviously the difference will actually be bigger as earnings in graduate and post graduate careers will be hindered by years of non earning whilst studying.
I wonder what the best earning non graduate positions are?
I think they're mainly trades, plus a few "non-desirable" jobs.
The Brexit Party seems to not consider THIS WA a proper Brexit. But do we know whether they would accept the WA wthout the backstop?
I would accept being pleasured in the French manner by Taylor Swift but that's just as irrelevant as neither that offer nor an unbackstopped WA will ever be available.
Undoubtedly. But it still makes the point to the EU that their formulation of the Irish border problem is how they've ballsed up the negotiations.
***Trigger Warning: a Beastly Internet Ex-HMF Musket-Bearing Poster is About to Respond***
You lot of ******* ****** voted for Brexit and are now insisting on a flavour of Brexit which can not, as you, others on here, and the ERG picture it, be delivered. The backstop is a vital element of the ongoing relationship between the UK & NI and the RoI.
The Brexit Party seems to not consider THIS WA a proper Brexit. But do we know whether they would accept the WA wthout the backstop?
I would accept being pleasured in the French manner by Taylor Swift but that's just as irrelevant as neither that offer nor an unbackstopped WA will ever be available.
Undoubtedly. But it still makes the point to the EU that their formulation of the Irish border problem is how they've ballsed up the negotiations.
***Trigger Warning: a Beastly Internet Ex-HMF Musket-Bearing Poster is About to Respond***
You lot of ******* ****** voted for Brexit and are now insisting on a flavour of Brexit which can not, as you, others on here, and the ERG picture it, be delivered. The backstop is a vital element of the ongoing relationship between the UK & NI and the RoI.
not really
regards
Paddy
Yes really.
Regards
BIEHMFMBP
well now youve gone all intolerant again, its like trying to rationalaise with the DUP :-)
I don't care what colour, race, sexuality, gender or religion my political representatives are. I just want them to be competent, honest and to have been fairly elected. I feel similarly about those working in the police and health services.
On radio 4 this morning, Simon Woolley the director of Operation Black Vote was demanding all-black short lists for political representatives in areas with higher BME populations, since those communities could not trust the system if it didn't represent them (ie look like them).
Isn't this profoundly racist?
By that logic, white people living in such districts could only be represented by white MP's and councillors.
I don’t know who attends these meeting but the report I heard sounded odd. It said For (Hunt) Home (Javid) and Def (Williamson) all spoke out against Huawei involvement but May was the voice of reason and allowed non essential items such as aerials to be supplied by them.
If this is supposedly related to leadership positioning who is that supposed to benefit?
The Brexit Party seems to not consider THIS WA a proper Brexit. But do we know whether they would accept the WA wthout the backstop?
I would accept being pleasured in the French manner by Taylor Swift but that's just as irrelevant as neither that offer nor an unbackstopped WA will ever be available.
Undoubtedly. But it still makes the point to the EU that their formulation of the Irish border problem is how they've ballsed up the negotiations.
***Trigger Warning: a Beastly Internet Ex-HMF Musket-Bearing Poster is About to Respond***
You lot of ******* ****** voted for Brexit and are now insisting on a flavour of Brexit which can not, as you, others on here, and the ERG picture it, be delivered. The backstop is a vital element of the ongoing relationship between the UK & NI and the RoI.
not really
regards
Paddy
Yes really.
Regards
BIEHMFMBP
well now youve gone all intolerant again, its like trying to rationalaise with the DUP :-)
Intolerant, moi? How very dare you.
Would you trust HMG and its band of ERG-ers not to balls up NI? Jeez (Jayzuz) at least TMay gets it thank the lord.
I don't care what colour, race, sexuality, gender or religion my political representatives are. I just want them to be competent, honest and to have been fairly elected. I feel similarly about those working in the police and health services.
On radio 4 this morning, Simon Woolley the director of Operation Black Vote was demanding all-black short lists for political representatives in areas with higher BME populations, since those communities could not trust the system if it didn't represent them (ie look like them).
Isn't this profoundly racist?
You think they should have faith in the essential decency of the white man's culture?
"Jeremy Hunt and Gavin Williamson both took the unusual step of insisting they had not been the source of information about Huawei’s future role in the UK’s 5G mobile network, putting pressure on other ministers to follow suit."
My better half surprised me at tea yesterday by announcing that she is going to vote for the Brexit party in the Euros. She is genuinely cross about us not leaving yet. She has no interest in who the candidate is or whether he or she is elected. She simply wants to record her irritation.
If the Tories are losing people like her (typically on the wet side of the party) this may be something not much short of catastrophic for them. Personally, I haven't made up my mind whether to boycott the election or follow suite but the Tories will not be getting my vote either. Can anyone think of a reason to vote for a Tory in these elections? Mid teens seems to assume a loyalty and force of habit that has been stretched to breaking point.
I would think that if you were a Leaver who wanted a negotiated exit from the EU then the Conservatives would be the only choice at the EU elections.
Although I don't think it's at all possible now, a large public vote for the Conservatives in these elections would potentially provide enough impetus to pass the Withdrawal Agreement.
Yes, the Brexit Party seems to not consider the WA a proper Brexit, so is in effect the No Deal party.
There is certainly a constituency for that, but less radical Leavers should vote Conservative or Labour.
While in terms of MPs, former Labour members dominate CHUK, at MEP level it seems to be more Pro EU former Tories, Stephen Dorrell in West Midlands for example and Rachel Johnson in the SW. With Heidi Allen as leader, I see Pro EU conservatives as their best potential pool of voters. The Tories are going to lose rats off both sides of the ship.
I disagree.
If they vote Tory or Labour there will be no pressure to change
Voting Brexit has the potential to scare the Tories, at least, into getting a deal passed. However it will only happen if Labour are scared as well. If they peel off significant Labour votes as well there might be momentum to transact.
I support the WA, and think that No Deal Brexit would be needlessly disruptive. But, I don't want Labour to come first.
I don't care what colour, race, sexuality, gender or religion my political representatives are. I just want them to be competent, honest and to have been fairly elected. I feel similarly about those working in the police and health services.
On radio 4 this morning, Simon Woolley the director of Operation Black Vote was demanding all-black short lists for political representatives in areas with higher BME populations, since those communities could not trust the system if it didn't represent them (ie look like them).
Isn't this profoundly racist?
By that logic, white people living in such districts could only be represented by white MP's and councillors.
By his logic, why should white people in areas with high BME populations be represented by black representatives?
It’s a profoundly racist, stupid and divisive proposal.
"Jeremy Hunt and Gavin Williamson both took the unusual step of insisting they had not been the source of information about Huawei’s future role in the UK’s 5G mobile network, putting pressure on other ministers to follow suit."
So has the disgraced national security risk Liam Fox.
The Brexit Party seems to not consider THIS WA a proper Brexit. But do we know whether they would accept the WA wthout the backstop?
I would accept being pleasured in the French manner by Taylor Swift but that's just as irrelevant as neither that offer nor an unbackstopped WA will ever be available.
Undoubtedly. But it still makes the point to the EU that their formulation of the Irish border problem is how they've ballsed up the negotiations.
***Trigger Warning: a Beastly Internet Ex-HMF Musket-Bearing Poster is About to Respond***
You lot of ******* ****** voted for Brexit and are now insisting on a flavour of Brexit which can not, as you, others on here, and the ERG picture it, be delivered. The backstop is a vital element of the ongoing relationship between the UK & NI and the RoI.
not really
regards
Paddy
Yes really.
Regards
BIEHMFMBP
well now youve gone all intolerant again, its like trying to rationalaise with the DUP :-)
Intolerant, moi? How very dare you.
Would you trust HMG and its band of ERG-ers not to balls up NI? Jeez (Jayzuz) at least TMay gets it thank the lord.
I fight strongly for the principle that the politicians of NI have been more than capable of fking the place up by themselves and that outside assistance is just overkill :-)
A postgraduate degree now needed to significantly increase earnings, by 30 earnings are 40% above non graduates for postgraduates but just 21% above non graduates for graduates alone.
Between the ages of 16 and 64 postgraduates earn £40,000 on average compared to £34 000 for graduates and £24 000 for non graduates
I don't care what colour, race, sexuality, gender or religion my political representatives are. I just want them to be competent, honest and to have been fairly elected. I feel similarly about those working in the police and health services.
On radio 4 this morning, Simon Woolley the director of Operation Black Vote was demanding all-black short lists for political representatives in areas with higher BME populations, since those communities could not trust the system if it didn't represent them (ie look like them).
Isn't this profoundly racist?
You think they should have faith in the essential decency of the white man's culture?
Not really, it's just I'd reject the view that it's the job of MP's to represent members of their race, rather than constituents in general.
"Jeremy Hunt and Gavin Williamson both took the unusual step of insisting they had not been the source of information about Huawei’s future role in the UK’s 5G mobile network, putting pressure on other ministers to follow suit."
So has the disgraced national security risk Liam Fox.
I fight strongly for the principle that the politicians of NI have been more than capable of fking the place up by themselves and that outside assistance is just overkill :-)
It was always a mystery to me why Enoch Powell felt so happy in the sectarian and bigoted world of Ulster Unionism.
A postgraduate degree now needed to significantly increase earnings, by 30 earnings are 40% above non graduates for postgraduates but just 21% above non graduates for graduates alone.
Between the ages of 16 and 64 postgraduates earn £40,000 on average compared to £34 000 for graduates and £24 000 for non graduates
Assume that is an average given you do not need a degree to earn good money in reality
Obviously the difference will actually be bigger as earnings in graduate and post graduate careers will be hindered by years of non earning whilst studying.
I wonder what the best earning non graduate positions are?
The Brexit Party seems to not consider THIS WA a proper Brexit. But do we know whether they would accept the WA wthout the backstop?
I would accept being pleasured in the French manner by Taylor Swift but that's just as irrelevant as neither that offer nor an unbackstopped WA will ever be available.
Undoubtedly. But it still makes the point to the EU that their formulation of the Irish border problem is how they've ballsed up the negotiations.
***Trigger Warning: a Beastly Internet Ex-HMF Musket-Bearing Poster is About to Respond***
You lot of ******* ****** voted for Brexit and are now insisting on a flavour of Brexit which can not, as you, others on here, and the ERG picture it, be delivered. The backstop is a vital element of the ongoing relationship between the UK & NI and the RoI.
FFS put a 10 year initial term, automatic renewal for 5 years and 5 years notice of termination required
If there hasn’t been a solution no U.K. government is actually going to terminate it.
We just need to be able to tell the nutters we can
I fight strongly for the principle that the politicians of NI have been more than capable of fking the place up by themselves and that outside assistance is just overkill :-)
It was always a mystery to me why Enoch Powell felt so happy in the sectarian and bigoted world of Ulster Unionism.
he tried the Pakistanis first and they wouldnt have him
"Jeremy Hunt and Gavin Williamson both took the unusual step of insisting they had not been the source of information about Huawei’s future role in the UK’s 5G mobile network, putting pressure on other ministers to follow suit."
So has the disgraced national security risk Liam Fox.
So that only leaves....
Quite a list. I assume loads of aides and civil servants are also involved in these meetings and their preparations.
"Jeremy Hunt and Gavin Williamson both took the unusual step of insisting they had not been the source of information about Huawei’s future role in the UK’s 5G mobile network, putting pressure on other ministers to follow suit."
I don't care what colour, race, sexuality, gender or religion my political representatives are. I just want them to be competent, honest and to have been fairly elected. I feel similarly about those working in the police and health services.
On radio 4 this morning, Simon Woolley the director of Operation Black Vote was demanding all-black short lists for political representatives in areas with higher BME populations, since those communities could not trust the system if it didn't represent them (ie look like them).
Isn't this profoundly racist?
You think they should have faith in the essential decency of the white man's culture?
Not really, it's just I'd reject the view that it's the job of MP's to represent members of their race, rather than constituents in general.
It makes no sense under scrutiny. I can’t be represented by a legal representative unless they have the same skin colour as me. I can’t be taught by someone of a different gender. I can’t be served in a shop by someone from a different race or background. Really?
Last night I finished watching MotherFatherSon, a drama starring Richard Gere (in modern clothing and therefore good) as a Murdoch type media mogul. The show will be winning no BAFTAs but it was notable for Sarah Lancashire as a charismatic female politician who is 'not really a politician', rather a businesswoman whose pitch is that the 'old politics' is not delivering and the country would be a much better place if it were run by a non-aligned outsider, a person of competence, commonsense, and compassion, i.e. HER.
She gets in, and the first thing she does as PM is announce that since the country now has the right leader, a strong leader who will get things done, sort everything out, will look after all of 'her people' so that they want for nothing, elections will no longer be needed in the future. What is the point of them when any change could only be for the worse? It is clear that this woman, or Mother of the Nation as she sees and styles herself, is a fascist, and a rather creepy one too.
The Brexit Party seems to not consider THIS WA a proper Brexit. But do we know whether they would accept the WA wthout the backstop?
I would accept being pleasured in the French manner by Taylor Swift but that's just as irrelevant as neither that offer nor an unbackstopped WA will ever be available.
Undoubtedly. But it still makes the point to the EU that their formulation of the Irish border problem is how they've ballsed up the negotiations.
***Trigger Warning: a Beastly Internet Ex-HMF Musket-Bearing Poster is About to Respond***
You lot of ******* ****** voted for Brexit and are now insisting on a flavour of Brexit which can not, as you, others on here, and the ERG picture it, be delivered. The backstop is a vital element of the ongoing relationship between the UK & NI and the RoI.
not really
regards
Paddy
Yes really.
Regards
BIEHMFMBP
In the shop We have a dozen muskets left over from the Gordon Riots if you need to borrow one?
"Jeremy Hunt and Gavin Williamson both took the unusual step of insisting they had not been the source of information about Huawei’s future role in the UK’s 5G mobile network, putting pressure on other ministers to follow suit."
So has the disgraced national security risk Liam Fox.
So that only leaves....
Quite a list. I assume loads of aides and civil servants are also involved in these meetings and their preparations.
I fight strongly for the principle that the politicians of NI have been more than capable of fking the place up by themselves and that outside assistance is just overkill :-)
It was always a mystery to me why Enoch Powell felt so happy in the sectarian and bigoted world of Ulster Unionism.
he tried the Pakistanis first and they wouldnt have him
The Brexit Party seems to not consider THIS WA a proper Brexit. But do we know whether they would accept the WA wthout the backstop?
I would accept being pleasured in the French manner by Taylor Swift but that's just as irrelevant as neither that offer nor an unbackstopped WA will ever be available.
Undoubtedly. But it still makes the point to the EU that their formulation of the Irish border problem is how they've ballsed up the negotiations.
***Trigger Warning: a Beastly Internet Ex-HMF Musket-Bearing Poster is About to Respond***
You lot of ******* ****** voted for Brexit and are now insisting on a flavour of Brexit which can not, as you, others on here, and the ERG picture it, be delivered. The backstop is a vital element of the ongoing relationship between the UK & NI and the RoI.
FFS put a 10 year initial term, automatic renewal for 5 years and 5 years notice of termination required
If there hasn’t been a solution no U.K. government is actually going to terminate it.
We just need to be able to tell the nutters we can
In 10 years the nutters might be in charge. Wasnt that long ago, Tory leaders were promising they didn't really want to leave the EU. The direction of travel is clear...
The Brexit Party seems to not consider THIS WA a proper Brexit. But do we know whether they would accept the WA wthout the backstop?
I would accept being pleasured in the French manner by Taylor Swift but that's just as irrelevant as neither that offer nor an unbackstopped WA will ever be available.
Undoubtedly. But it still makes the point to the EU that their formulation of the Irish border problem is how they've ballsed up the negotiations.
***Trigger Warning: a Beastly Internet Ex-HMF Musket-Bearing Poster is About to Respond***
You lot of ******* ****** voted for Brexit and are now insisting on a flavour of Brexit which can not, as you, others on here, and the ERG picture it, be delivered. The backstop is a vital element of the ongoing relationship between the UK & NI and the RoI.
FFS put a 10 year initial term, automatic renewal for 5 years and 5 years notice of termination required
If there hasn’t been a solution no U.K. government is actually going to terminate it.
We just need to be able to tell the nutters we can
I mean that might fly. In politics it is of course an eon. Bet the ERG-ers would have you up against the wall for even suggesting it, that said.
The Brexit Party seems to not consider THIS WA a proper Brexit. But do we know whether they would accept the WA wthout the backstop?
I would accept being pleasured in the French manner by Taylor Swift but that's just as irrelevant as neither that offer nor an unbackstopped WA will ever be available.
Undoubtedly. But it still makes the point to the EU that their formulation of the Irish border problem is how they've ballsed up the negotiations.
***Trigger Warning: a Beastly Internet Ex-HMF Musket-Bearing Poster is About to Respond***
You lot of ******* ****** voted for Brexit and are now insisting on a flavour of Brexit which can not, as you, others on here, and the ERG picture it, be delivered. The backstop is a vital element of the ongoing relationship between the UK & NI and the RoI.
FFS put a 10 year initial term, automatic renewal for 5 years and 5 years notice of termination required
If there hasn’t been a solution no U.K. government is actually going to terminate it.
We just need to be able to tell the nutters we can
I mean that might fly. In politics it is of course an eon. Bet the ERG-ers would have you up against the wall for even suggesting it, that said.
I’ve said repeatedly that the EU is happy with a two year notice on membership of the EU via article 50. Surely this principle could also be applied to the backstop.
I don't care what colour, race, sexuality, gender or religion my political representatives are. I just want them to be competent, honest and to have been fairly elected. I feel similarly about those working in the police and health services.
On radio 4 this morning, Simon Woolley the director of Operation Black Vote was demanding all-black short lists for political representatives in areas with higher BME populations, since those communities could not trust the system if it didn't represent them (ie look like them).
Isn't this profoundly racist?
You think they should have faith in the essential decency of the white man's culture?
Not really, it's just I'd reject the view that it's the job of MP's to represent members of their race, rather than constituents in general.
It makes no sense under scrutiny. I can’t be represented by a legal representative unless they have the same skin colour as me. I can’t be taught by someone of a different gender. I can’t be served in a shop by someone from a different race or background. Really?
What bothers me more is the decision to invite the Chinese into our telecoms infrastructure.
Seconded....while the leak is incredibly serious, it is overshadowing the fact the government are willing to go with them, despite serious warnings from the likes of the US.
"Jeremy Hunt and Gavin Williamson both took the unusual step of insisting they had not been the source of information about Huawei’s future role in the UK’s 5G mobile network, putting pressure on other ministers to follow suit."
So has the disgraced national security risk Liam Fox.
So that only leaves....
Quite a list. I assume loads of aides and civil servants are also involved in these meetings and their preparations.
The Brexit Party seems to not consider THIS WA a proper Brexit. But do we know whether they would accept the WA wthout the backstop?
I would accept being pleasured in the French manner by Taylor Swift but that's just as irrelevant as neither that offer nor an unbackstopped WA will ever be available.
Undoubtedly. But it still makes the point to the EU that their formulation of the Irish border problem is how they've ballsed up the negotiations.
***Trigger Warning: a Beastly Internet Ex-HMF Musket-Bearing Poster is About to Respond***
You lot of ******* ****** voted for Brexit and are now insisting on a flavour of Brexit which can not, as you, others on here, and the ERG picture it, be delivered. The backstop is a vital element of the ongoing relationship between the UK & NI and the RoI.
FFS put a 10 year initial term, automatic renewal for 5 years and 5 years notice of termination required
If there hasn’t been a solution no U.K. government is actually going to terminate it.
We just need to be able to tell the nutters we can
I mean that might fly. In politics it is of course an eon. Bet the ERG-ers would have you up against the wall for even suggesting it, that said.
What bothers me more is the decision to invite the Chinese into our telecoms infrastructure.
Seconded....while the leak is incredibly serious, it is overshadowing the fact the government are willing to go with them, despite serious warnings from the likes of the US.
We let the yanks have access to just about everything and they are complete lunatics, I'm not that fussed if we swap loons.
The Brexit Party seems to not consider THIS WA a proper Brexit. But do we know whether they would accept the WA wthout the backstop?
I would accept being pleasured in the French manner by Taylor Swift but that's just as irrelevant as neither that offer nor an unbackstopped WA will ever be available.
Undoubtedly. But it still makes the point to the EU that their formulation of the Irish border problem is how they've ballsed up the negotiations.
***Trigger Warning: a Beastly Internet Ex-HMF Musket-Bearing Poster is About to Respond***
You lot of ******* ****** voted for Brexit and are now insisting on a flavour of Brexit which can not, as you, others on here, and the ERG picture it, be delivered. The backstop is a vital element of the ongoing relationship between the UK & NI and the RoI.
not really
regards
Paddy
Yes really.
Regards
BIEHMFMBP
In the shop We have a dozen muskets left over from the Gordon Riots if you need to borrow one?
I'm liking the fact that it looks like your first draft of that started at "We..." but you thought you'd better add "in the shop" in case anyone thought you had a dozen muskets lying around on the kitchen table!
I don't care what colour, race, sexuality, gender or religion my political representatives are. I just want them to be competent, honest and to have been fairly elected. I feel similarly about those working in the police and health services.
On radio 4 this morning, Simon Woolley the director of Operation Black Vote was demanding all-black short lists for political representatives in areas with higher BME populations, since those communities could not trust the system if it didn't represent them (ie look like them).
Isn't this profoundly racist?
You think they should have faith in the essential decency of the white man's culture?
Not really, it's just I'd reject the view that it's the job of MP's to represent members of their race, rather than constituents in general.
It makes no sense under scrutiny. I can’t be represented by a legal representative unless they have the same skin colour as me. I can’t be taught by someone of a different gender. I can’t be served in a shop by someone from a different race or background. Really?
It’s the logic of apartheid.
And, a foolish idea to promote in a country where nearly 90% of the voters are white. If everyone votes along racial lines, Simon Woolley will be hugely outnumbered.
The Brexit Party seems to not consider THIS WA a proper Brexit. But do we know whether they would accept the WA wthout the backstop?
I would accept being pleasured in the French manner by Taylor Swift but that's just as irrelevant as neither that offer nor an unbackstopped WA will ever be available.
Undoubtedly. But it still makes the point to the EU that their formulation of the Irish border problem is how they've ballsed up the negotiations.
***Trigger Warning: a Beastly Internet Ex-HMF Musket-Bearing Poster is About to Respond***
You lot of ******* ****** voted for Brexit and are now insisting on a flavour of Brexit which can not, as you, others on here, and the ERG picture it, be delivered. The backstop is a vital element of the ongoing relationship between the UK & NI and the RoI.
FFS put a 10 year initial term, automatic renewal for 5 years and 5 years notice of termination required
If there hasn’t been a solution no U.K. government is actually going to terminate it.
We just need to be able to tell the nutters we can
I mean that might fly. In politics it is of course an eon. Bet the ERG-ers would have you up against the wall for even suggesting it, that said.
I’m not an ERG-er
It's an eminently respectable, deliverable and fairly obvious way forward. If anyone knows why it's not been part of the debate, then please enlighten me.
I mean obviously the ERG and Faragists would scream and wail regardless. And if the backstop was solved there would be another, insurmountable reason that the WA was a betrayal of Brexit. They don't exist as a political force without a grievance, and I suspect they've hitched their horses to the backstop as the easiest way to perpetuate one.
Last night I finished watching MotherFatherSon, a drama starring Richard Gere (in modern clothing and therefore good) as a Murdoch type media mogul. The show will be winning no BAFTAs but it was notable for Sarah Lancashire as a charismatic female politician who is 'not really a politician', rather a businesswoman whose pitch is that the 'old politics' is not delivering and the country would be a much better place if it were run by a non-aligned outsider, a person of competence, commonsense, and compassion, i.e. HER.
She gets in, and the first thing she does as PM is announce that since the country now has the right leader, a strong leader who will get things done, sort everything out, will look after all of 'her people' so that they want for nothing, elections will no longer be needed in the future. What is the point of them when any change could only be for the worse? It is clear that this woman, or Mother of the Nation as she sees and styles herself, is a fascist, and a rather creepy one too.
It all reminded me of Heidi Allen. So beware.
That's a very odd post - I fail to see how you could make that comparison, and there are much more obvious candidates in the political world - especially if you include men.
The Brexit Party seems to not consider THIS WA a proper Brexit. But do we know whether they would accept the WA wthout the backstop?
I would accept being pleasured in the French manner by Taylor Swift but that's just as irrelevant as neither that offer nor an unbackstopped WA will ever be available.
Undoubtedly. But it still makes the point to the EU that their formulation of the Irish border problem is how they've ballsed up the negotiations.
***Trigger Warning: a Beastly Internet Ex-HMF Musket-Bearing Poster is About to Respond***
You lot of ******* ****** voted for Brexit and are now insisting on a flavour of Brexit which can not, as you, others on here, and the ERG picture it, be delivered. The backstop is a vital element of the ongoing relationship between the UK & NI and the RoI.
not really
regards
Paddy
Yes really.
Regards
BIEHMFMBP
In the shop We have a dozen muskets left over from the Gordon Riots if you need to borrow one?
I'm liking the fact that it looks like your first draft of that started at "We..." but you thought you'd better add "in the shop" in case anyone thought you had a dozen muskets lying around on the kitchen table!
I thought that was just the obligatory upper case 'We' when it comes to discussing Clan Charles Ltd?
The Brexit Party seems to not consider THIS WA a proper Brexit. But do we know whether they would accept the WA wthout the backstop?
I would accept being pleasured in the French manner by Taylor Swift but that's just as irrelevant as neither that offer nor an unbackstopped WA will ever be available.
Undoubtedly. But it still makes the point to the EU that their formulation of the Irish border problem is how they've ballsed up the negotiations.
***Trigger Warning: a Beastly Internet Ex-HMF Musket-Bearing Poster is About to Respond***
You lot of ******* ****** voted for Brexit and are now insisting on a flavour of Brexit which can not, as you, others on here, and the ERG picture it, be delivered. The backstop is a vital element of the ongoing relationship between the UK & NI and the RoI.
not really
regards
Paddy
Yes really.
Regards
BIEHMFMBP
In the shop We have a dozen muskets left over from the Gordon Riots if you need to borrow one?
I'm liking the fact that it looks like your first draft of that started at "We..." but you thought you'd better add "in the shop" in case anyone thought you had a dozen muskets lying around on the kitchen table!
Well we have a legal obligation to provide 12 men with muskets for defence of Farringdon Without should the Lord Mayor request it and I wouldn’t want anyone to think we don’t stand by our word!
"Jeremy Hunt and Gavin Williamson both took the unusual step of insisting they had not been the source of information about Huawei’s future role in the UK’s 5G mobile network, putting pressure on other ministers to follow suit."
So has the disgraced national security risk Liam Fox.
So that only leaves....
Quite a list. I assume loads of aides and civil servants are also involved in these meetings and their preparations.
The Brexit Party seems to not consider THIS WA a proper Brexit. But do we know whether they would accept the WA wthout the backstop?
I would accept being pleasured in the French manner by Taylor Swift but that's just as irrelevant as neither that offer nor an unbackstopped WA will ever be available.
Undoubtedly. But it still makes the point to the EU that their formulation of the Irish border problem is how they've ballsed up the negotiations.
***Trigger Warning: a Beastly Internet Ex-HMF Musket-Bearing Poster is About to Respond***
You lot of ******* ****** voted for Brexit and are now insisting on a flavour of Brexit which can not, as you, others on here, and the ERG picture it, be delivered. The backstop is a vital element of the ongoing relationship between the UK & NI and the RoI.
FFS put a 10 year initial term, automatic renewal for 5 years and 5 years notice of termination required
If there hasn’t been a solution no U.K. government is actually going to terminate it.
We just need to be able to tell the nutters we can
I mean that might fly. In politics it is of course an eon. Bet the ERG-ers would have you up against the wall for even suggesting it, that said.
I’m not an ERG-er
It's an eminently respectable, deliverable and fairly obvious way forward. If anyone knows why it's not been part of the debate, then please enlighten me.
I mean obviously the ERG and Faragists would scream and wail regardless. And if the backstop was solved there would be another, insurmountable reason that the WA was a betrayal of Brexit. They don't exist as a political force without a grievance, and I suspect they've hitched their horses to the backstop as the easiest way to perpetuate one.
It gets you the DUP and a few of the ERG. Labour Leavers can do the rest.
What bothers me more is the decision to invite the Chinese into our telecoms infrastructure.
Seconded....while the leak is incredibly serious, it is overshadowing the fact the government are willing to go with them, despite serious warnings from the likes of the US.
Whilst I share your concerns, the US are not exactly disinterested parties in this, in several ways.
Comments
This is not static.
*Sobs uncontrollably*
Mark Francois bets on himself to take over as Tory leader
https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2019/04/25/mark-francois-bets-on-himself-to-take-over-as-tory-leader/
World Trade Volumes Are Plunging at the Fastest Pace in a Decade https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-25/world-trade-volumes-are-plunging-at-the-fastest-pace-in-a-decade
on the other hand what I suspect from that list when matched with the german forecast, is that potentially a very different Europe could emerge. If election result pummel the establishment then a wave of reforms could actually create a different style EU one which isnt the usual stitch up by the main parties and the bureaucracy.
However, there is real desire for change in the EU and the new EU Parliament looks as if it is going to be a lot more confrontational within itself with huge internal divisions
Interestingly though the tories slip behind Labour into 3rd place on the voting intention.
https://whatukthinks.org/eu/opinion-polls/euref2-poll-of-polls/
if youd bothered to listen there has been enough of us predicting that a world slowdown would appear around now as the economic cycle tends to work on a10 year gap and the last one was in 2009. However so many remainers were determined that this should be because of Brexit that they didnt bother to look beyond their little england noses.
As for navel gazing certainly, but thats no different than France Italy or Germany atm if you follow their press. Evceryone is waiting for the states or China to do something.
What is the winning score atm?
I rank just above TSE in the relegation zone. 8/9
Even the politician advocates are nowadays careful to mention "of course there will be some short term disruption" to try and cover their backs.
If they vote Tory or Labour there will be no pressure to change
Voting Brexit has the potential to scare the Tories, at least, into getting a deal passed. However it will only happen if Labour are scared as well. If they peel off significant Labour votes as well there might be momentum to transact.
I thought you’d appreciate another patsy to take money off?
You lot of ******* ****** voted for Brexit and are now insisting on a flavour of Brexit which can not, as you, others on here, and the ERG picture it, be delivered. The backstop is a vital element of the ongoing relationship between the UK & NI and the RoI.
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1121660207619162118
What indeed the longer term one shoes is this Remain WAS this far ahead before, which is actually a pretty interesting conclusion in itself.
That he's even listed is a cause for shame.
regards
Paddy
I wonder what the best earning non graduate positions are?
On radio 4 this morning, Simon Woolley the director of Operation Black Vote was demanding all-black short lists for political representatives in areas with higher BME populations, since those communities could not trust the system if it didn't represent them (ie look like them).
Isn't this profoundly racist?
Regards
BIEHMFMBP
If this is supposedly related to leadership positioning who is that supposed to benefit?
Would you trust HMG and its band of ERG-ers not to balls up NI? Jeez (Jayzuz) at least TMay gets it thank the lord.
"Jeremy Hunt and Gavin Williamson both took the unusual step of insisting they had not been the source of information about Huawei’s future role in the UK’s 5G mobile network, putting pressure on other ministers to follow suit."
It’s a profoundly racist, stupid and divisive proposal.
So that only leaves....
Quite a few and their hangers-on
If there hasn’t been a solution no U.K. government is actually going to terminate it.
We just need to be able to tell the nutters we can
https://www.welt.de/finanzen/article192440959/500-Euro-Schein-Einstellung-im-globalen-Vergleich-konsequent.html
Last night I finished watching MotherFatherSon, a drama starring Richard Gere (in modern clothing and therefore good) as a Murdoch type media mogul. The show will be winning no BAFTAs but it was notable for Sarah Lancashire as a charismatic female politician who is 'not really a politician', rather a businesswoman whose pitch is that the 'old politics' is not delivering and the country would be a much better place if it were run by a non-aligned outsider, a person of competence, commonsense, and compassion, i.e. HER.
She gets in, and the first thing she does as PM is announce that since the country now has the right leader, a strong leader who will get things done, sort everything out, will look after all of 'her people' so that they want for nothing, elections will no longer be needed in the future. What is the point of them when any change could only be for the worse? It is clear that this woman, or Mother of the Nation as she sees and styles herself, is a fascist, and a rather creepy one too.
It all reminded me of Heidi Allen. So beware.
https://twitter.com/telegraph/status/1121185818826149888?s=21
Wasnt that long ago, Tory leaders were promising they didn't really want to leave the EU.
The direction of travel is clear...
I would not assume that the leak necessarily came from someone in this country.
Meanwhile the SCons certainly seem to have the guy to represent them (not that he's got a scooby of getting in).
https://twitter.com/MrDanDonoghue/status/1121674627430793216
I mean obviously the ERG and Faragists would scream and wail regardless. And if the backstop was solved there would be another, insurmountable reason that the WA was a betrayal of Brexit. They don't exist as a political force without a grievance, and I suspect they've hitched their horses to the backstop as the easiest way to perpetuate one.
Also on this thread: Conservative Leavers complaining about lack of adequate representation based on a single characteristic.