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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Farage against the machine. Why the Brexit party’s chances are
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Farage against the machine. Why the Brexit party’s chances are not as good as billed
Nigel Farage’s second coming has been greeted with fanfares in the media, which love someone who courts publicity and is prepared to do whatever it takes to get it. His gaping maw can be viewed wherever you look, and he has so far been given an unimpeded run for his message that Brexit has been betrayed. His credentials as a strategic genius who delivered Brexit are taken as read. His brilliance as a politician is assumed. The imminent collapse of the current political establishment is expected.
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I'm in my safe space at the moment.
Who fell to an electoral barrage
He campaigned so hard
But let down his guard
And ended up locked in his garage
Cummings may also say it was him who got Leave to 52% but without Farage and UKIP pressuring Cameron there would have been no EU referendum and no anti EU base to build on in the first place.
It is also difficult for Remainers like Alistair to comprehend the depth and scale of anger from Leavers at the fact we are still in the EU almost 3 years since we voted Leave. Every night canvassing in the local elections I get at least 2 or 3 Leavers saying they 'have voted Tory all their life etc but will not be voting again until we leave or will be voting but only for the Brexit Party nationally'.
If the Brexit Party comes first in the European elections as it likely that could finally panic MPs into passing the WA, especially if the Brexit Party also lead in Northern and Midlands Labour Leave seats. CUK for the moment is nowhere
Let's say the Brexit party wins the EU elections and the Tory party panics and appoints a hard Brexiteer. I would then expect the Tory party ratings to recover and the Brexit party to fall back. If we finally leave (by what ever means) I would expect the Brexit party to fade away like UKIP did.
Now, if, on the other hand, the Tory MPs appoint another remainer and we end up not leaving, either by another massive extension or plain revocation, then I would expect to see the Brexit party to do really well and we would see mass defections (certainly at local level from the Cons)
In many ways I see the Brexit Party as a pressure group that will have an inverse relationship to the likelihood of Brexit happening.
I can't really see much of a future for CUK. The suggestion earlier that the LDs should merge into them was ridiculous.
Like taking naps, voting Tory, and getting spanked.
I’m half crazy, all for the love of you.
It won’t be a stylish marriage
Cos I can’t afford a carriage
But you'll look sweet,
Behind the seat
Of a bicycle built for two
Labour is also not immune from the Brexit Party, the latest YouGov poll has 10% of 2017 Labour voters voting for the Brexit Party or UKIP in the European elections, almost as many as the 12% who will vote for CUK
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/y0zo9icxct/TheTimes_190411_VI_Trackers_bpc_w.pdf
The ministerial frustration is understandable but a fix is not within them. Not without a formal split.
Smear smear smear and find guilty by association when the other parties are guilty of the same is so boring.
As it stands, the re emergence of Farage is acting like a proxy for No deal, and makes the MV4 far more likely to pass. Then his detractors will say he failed again, as he retires having achieved his mission of the UK leaving the EU.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/dec/05/nigel-farage-ukip-claridges-breastfeeding-mothers
“Let me get this clear, as I said on the radio and as I repeat now, I personally have no problem with mothers breastfeeding wherever they want”
Though I dont think it makes MV4 any more likely to pass. The opposite in fact. Tory hard leavers are acting more bullish, even the ones who voted for the deal last time, emboldened that no deal might be viable again, they hope. The 30 plus needed to see the MV pass are no more likely to come as the mps will still believe they have numbers to delay things as needed
....it's past the watershed ain't it?
Plus he has history in that constituency, he wouldn't have been seen as a carpetbagger.
It was four years later when I went to university that I finally had the courage to ask someone why Stephen Milligan died with an orange in his mouth.
Yes, there was a time when I was really innocent.
We've heard the 'focus minds' argument before and yet even with a very real chance of no Brexit or even no deal only 6 labour mps wavered. It isn't happening. And that without fools like Drax regretting their choice last time. If the Brexit party top the poll might not others who reluctantly backed the deal not do so again? I believe you yourself have suggested the EU might not extend again after all.
If they are going to make progress again, they need to change leader and try and put out some olive branches to Brexit voters. And come up with some other policies.
It's a shame Lamb isn't leader.
The advantages the LDs do have over CHUK are:
- 12 seats, of which maybe 8 are reasonably safe
- Large numbers of councillors and activists
- Large numbers of members
- A place in the election debates
I also remember spewing coffee over the Spectator, I was laughing so much at Auberon Waugh's obituary for Milligan.
The centre right EPP is forecast to be the biggest party by Europe Elects with a total of 177 MEPs. The three eurosceptic reform, freedom of nations and direct democracy groups are forecast to have 166 between them.
However, those figures allow for Orban's Hungarian dozen to sit within the EPP, whereas they appear to be ideologically aligned to one of the latter groups. That is substantial drift from the 2014 europhile right to a 2019 eurosceptic one.
Those figures are also based on non participation by the UK.
As the UK right does not sit in the EPP it's probable that an election would send 30-40 Tory/Brexit Party MEPs into the reform, freedom and democracy grouping. This would be at the combined expense of countries gaining from the Brexit seat redistribution (Spain and France gain most) and the German led EPP on the right.
If the eurosceptics outnumber the europhile right, where does that leave the EPP on 27th May?
In these terms Farage is already the most successful UK politician of our time.
As much as some people (including the author of this thread header) think some people are fixated on Brexit, and only identify as "Remainers" or "Leavers" to the exclusion of everything else, I'm really not convinced that's right. Whereas the Lib Dems are seen as only being interested in Brexit (as increasingly are Labour, since for months now they've only been getting media attention when they've been doing something to delay Brexit or to vote against a specific Brexit option), I feel like the perception is that the Greens have a broader agenda, which will appeal even to a lot of Remain voters who want to register that they're bored of the subject and want politicians to focus on other things.
The EU will extend for ever, the only risk is Macron eventually vetos. If we are still in the EU by the time of the next general election and the Tories have not replaced May by a hard Brexiteer there is a clear chance of an SNP 2015 style wave for the Brexit Party and Farage ends up PM
Anti-Brexit forces could have won about 16 seats at the Euro elections if they'd formed an alliance. Instead they're likely to win just 7 seats, all of which would likely be LD.
The Brexit Party is only polling so well because we have not left the EU yet, had the Brexit Deal passed they would only be getting the fanatics support not the more moderate Leavers who will back them at the EU Parliament elections.
Also the closest to a Commons majority in the indicative votes was Deal plus CU, which fell just 3 votes short, if a few more Labour MPs switch to that rather than EUref2 because of the Brexit Party success it will pass
At best I think that around 20% of the electorate* both like the EU and were reasonably content with the direction of the 2010-15 Government. The LDs are in a good position to compete for their vote. For the other 80%, they are in a very poor position to compete. Just to make matters worse, Change UK are also fishing in the same pool.
Compare and contrast with the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s, when the LDs very cleverly did not defined themselves and so could simultaneously appeal to left and right, whilst being the only 3rd party show in town.
*20% of the electorate, but 60%+ of PBers and 80%+ of PB thread authors.
Quite how he's managed to get away with the act repeatedly over the years is beyond me.
Secondly, as we saw at the last general election, it's very hard to make politics just about Brexit (thank God). Of course this is the number 1 issue for the Gammon of the UK, but there really aren't enough of them out there to propel Farage to number 10.
Ah, just surrender and it won't hurt at all
You just got time to say your prayers
Yeah, while you're waiting for the hammer to, hammer to fall
The last general election is an absurd comparison, both parties promised we would have left the EU by this March, both have thus broken that promise as it is now late April and we are still in the EU.
52% of the voters voted Leave, that is far more than a few Gammons
Anyway she did a routine about female power and how Theresa May has actually made it uncool for white women to be in charge... called her ‘anxiety personified’ which I thought was quite accurate