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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The CON Westminster polling looks dire as we head into next mo

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  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    Danny565 said:
    2% annual wealth tax is pretty high by international standards
    She’s also careful to avoid mentioning that it would need to be levied annually. So over 20 years it would expropriate more than half of someone’s wealth.
    With that and wanting to break up the tech companies, i think even the ultra liberal silicon types might turn into trump supporters if she was picked as dems candidate.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    Danny565 said:
    2% annual wealth tax is pretty high by international standards
    She’s also careful to avoid mentioning that it would need to be levied annually. So over 20 years it would expropriate more than half of someone’s wealth.
    You’d be doing very badly to have no nominal asset growth over 20 years. I expect some with very illiquid assets would struggle to find the cash, but I’m sure the City can innovate to provide the necessary financial products.

    2% is high but not catastrophic. 5% would be time to get out.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Cyclefree said:

    Off topic, a question for the PB crowd: any recommendations for reasonably priced hotels in central NY - somewhere around the 7th Ave/52nd street area or within easy walking distance?

    Thanks.

    VM is fine, to avoid clogging up the thread.

    I’ve never stayed there but told that the Michelangelo is a little tired but a very solid hotel

    https://www.michelangelohotel.com/en/specials/?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIk_-omZvm4QIVmK3tCh09RAjiEAAYASACEgIVbPD_BwE
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited April 2019
    West Midlands

    Stephen Dorrell
    Charlotte Gath
    Peter Widing
    Amrik Kandola
    Joanna McKenna
    Victor Odusanya
    Lucinda Epson

    SW

    Rachel Johnson
    Jim Godfrey
    Oli Middleton
    Matthew Hooberman
    Liz Sewell
    Crispin Hunt

    NW

    Andrea Cooper
    Daniel Price
    Arun Banerji
    Michael Taylor
    Philippa Olive
    Victoria Desmond
    Andrew Graystone
    Elizabeth Knight

    NE

    Frances Weetman
    Penny Hawley
    Kathryn Heywood

    Yorkshire

    Diana Wallis
    Juliet Lodge
    Stephen Bow
    Joshua Malkin
    Ros McMullen
    Steve Wilson

    Wales

    Jon Owen Jones
    June Davies
    Matthew Paul
    Sally Stephenson

    Scotland

    Joseph Russo
    David McDonald
    Kate Forman
    Peter Griffiths
    Heather Astbury
    Catherine Edgeworth

    London

    Esler
    Jan Vincent-Rostowki
    Carole Tongue
    Annabel Mullin
    Karen Newman
    Ali Sadjady Naiery
    Nora Mulready
    Jessica Simor

    South East

    Richard Ashworth
    Victoria Groufel
    Warren Morgan
    Eleonor FUller
    Robin Baxtor
    Nicholas Mazzei
    Sazana Carp
    Phil Murphy
    Heather Allen
    Diane Yeo


    East

    Emma Taylor
    Neil Carmichael
    Bhavna Joshi
    Michelle de Vries
    Amanda Gummer
    Thomas Graham
    Roger Casale

    East Midlands

    Kate Godfrey
    Joan Laplana
    Narinder Sharma
    Pankajhmar Gulab
    Emma Jane Manley

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    Danny565 said:
    2% annual wealth tax is pretty high by international standards
    She’s also careful to avoid mentioning that it would need to be levied annually. So over 20 years it would expropriate more than half of someone’s wealth. Obviously that definitely won’t result in any changes in behaviour whatsoever..
    How does that maths work?
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited April 2019

    In ChUK lists I see

    2 former labour MPs: Roger Casale (Wimbledon, 1997-2015) and Jon Owen Jones (Cardiff Central, 1992-2015)
    2 former Labour PPCs: Kate Godfrey (Stafford 2015, but I think she has already defected to LD a few years ago) and Victoria Groulef
    1 former Labour MEP: Carole Tongue (80s and 90s)

    1 former LD MEP: Diana Wallis (Yorkshire)

    2 former Con MPs: Neil Carmichael (Stroud, 2005-15) and Stephen Dorrell (Loughborough/Charnwood 1979-2015)

    1 sitting Con MEP: Richard Ashworth

    Seems they are heavily into recycling - a pity they couldn't agree a joint list with the Greens!

    I see they are running Rachel Johnson in the south west - I presume she didn't think that meant areas with an SW postcode?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited April 2019
    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    Danny565 said:
    2% annual wealth tax is pretty high by international standards
    She’s also careful to avoid mentioning that it would need to be levied annually. So over 20 years it would expropriate more than half of someone’s wealth. Obviously that definitely won’t result in any changes in behaviour whatsoever..
    How does that maths work?
    It doesn't. 0.98 to the power 20 is 0.67, so one third lost over 20 years.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Dura_Ace said:

    Fwiw the Corbynistas I follow on twitter are getting RSI from tweeting derogatory stuff about ChUK, nada about Nigel and his merry men (& women).

    https://twitter.com/alexvtunzelmann/status/1120643969124306944?s=21
    I am really struggling to understand the new political fascination with ex-mil types. As if it qualifies you for anything but supplying a rich vein of stories that start, "So there I was...
    You underestimate the importance of that. My lack of ability to start stories that way is a true hindrance
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,337
    Brom said:

    I'm quite interested in the tone of the Mail Online/Daily Mail towards The Brexit Party - which so far seems fairly supportive. Dacre gave oxygen to Farage, but would happily rip UKIP apart at elections to protect the Tory vote. Grieg is at least a soft Brexit supporter (if not a remainer) yet the Brexit Party (who do seem well organised and quite refreshing to many) are getting some very positive press.

    I wonder if The Mail are building them up to tear them down, if Grieg ( a good friend of George Osborne) hates May so much he will support whoever it takes to oust her, or maybe he just sees The BP as a positive step in the realignment of politics.

    Maybe it's a bit of "public service broadcasting" to keep the vote with Farage rather than the current BNP-lite incarnation of UKIP.

    Though I don't have much time for either, Farage has played a clever game over the years in keeping his fingerprints off most of the racism and loony-right stuff.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    Danny565 said:
    2% annual wealth tax is pretty high by international standards
    She’s also careful to avoid mentioning that it would need to be levied annually. So over 20 years it would expropriate more than half of someone’s wealth. Obviously that definitely won’t result in any changes in behaviour whatsoever..
    How does that maths work?
    It doesn't. 0.98 to the power 20 is 0.67, so one third over 20 years.
    I mean bloody hell though.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677




    I know he won it in 2014 but doesn't Hamilton always underperform at SPOTY unless it's generally a boring year for UK sport? I fully accept that he's a fantastic driver but the worst fashion sense in sport apart, there seems to be a curious hole where a personality should be.

    I once sold some old Porsche bits to a guy who works for McLaren F1. He told me LewHam's hair transplant cost 100 grand. #jesuischarles
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    edited April 2019
    Warren is only polling 5%. Its interesting how despite being the media golden boy beto is polling just as badly.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited April 2019

    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    Danny565 said:
    2% annual wealth tax is pretty high by international standards
    She’s also careful to avoid mentioning that it would need to be levied annually. So over 20 years it would expropriate more than half of someone’s wealth. Obviously that definitely won’t result in any changes in behaviour whatsoever..
    How does that maths work?
    It doesn't. 0.98 to the power 20 is 0.67, so one third over 20 years.
    I mean bloody hell though.
    Assuming no investment return on the wealth, however. And perhaps more importantly, no avoidance.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    is bottom of the Change SW list Crispin Hunt as in the guy from indie band The Longpigs?!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,246

    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    Danny565 said:
    2% annual wealth tax is pretty high by international standards
    She’s also careful to avoid mentioning that it would need to be levied annually. So over 20 years it would expropriate more than half of someone’s wealth. Obviously that definitely won’t result in any changes in behaviour whatsoever..
    How does that maths work?
    It doesn't. 0.98 to the power 20 is 0.67, so one third over 20 years.
    I mean bloody hell though.
    Assuming no investment return on the wealth, however.
    Allowing for that, and Charles’ annual fees, 50% might be about right.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Nigelb said:

    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    Danny565 said:
    2% annual wealth tax is pretty high by international standards
    She’s also careful to avoid mentioning that it would need to be levied annually. So over 20 years it would expropriate more than half of someone’s wealth. Obviously that definitely won’t result in any changes in behaviour whatsoever..
    How does that maths work?
    It doesn't. 0.98 to the power 20 is 0.67, so one third over 20 years.
    I mean bloody hell though.
    Assuming no investment return on the wealth, however.
    Allowing for that, and Charles’ annual fees, 50% might be about right.
    LOL! You are right.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    Danny565 said:
    2% annual wealth tax is pretty high by international standards
    She’s also careful to avoid mentioning that it would need to be levied annually. So over 20 years it would expropriate more than half of someone’s wealth. Obviously that definitely won’t result in any changes in behaviour whatsoever..
    How does that maths work?
    (1.02^20) -1 = 0.5
    So assuming the value of the asset doesn’t change over time, after 20 years you’ll have paid half the value of it in tax.

    If instead you did it simple interest on a diminishing value (eg selling shares each year to pay the tax) then you’d need about 27 years for it to be cut in half.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    edited April 2019
    The full CUKTIG list is so Blairite it hurts. Lots of third-sector management types, academy trust chairs, that sort of thing.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,246
    Dura_Ace said:




    I know he won it in 2014 but doesn't Hamilton always underperform at SPOTY unless it's generally a boring year for UK sport? I fully accept that he's a fantastic driver but the worst fashion sense in sport apart, there seems to be a curious hole where a personality should be.

    I once sold some old Porsche bits to a guy who works for McLaren F1. He told me LewHam's hair transplant cost 100 grand. #jesuischarles
    Don’t they have enough old Porsche bits of their own from the 80s ?
  • hamiltonacehamiltonace Posts: 660
    Charles said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Off topic, a question for the PB crowd: any recommendations for reasonably priced hotels in central NY - somewhere around the 7th Ave/52nd street area or within easy walking distance?

    Thanks.

    VM is fine, to avoid clogging up the thread.

    I’ve never stayed there but told that the Michelangelo is a little tired but a very solid hotel

    https://www.michelangelohotel.com/en/specials/?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIk_-omZvm4QIVmK3tCh09RAjiEAAYASACEgIVbPD_BwE

    Concorde Hotel in mid town is easy walking to everywhere and rooms are newish and staff friendly.

    If you pay a bit more the intercontinental at times square is really nice. Love the lobby and views from the upper windows.

  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    The best chance for Change UK is London .

    Percentage wise you need less there to get an MEP . I’d expect them to get their best share of the vote there.

  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited April 2019

    The full CUKTIG list is so Blairite it hurts. Lots of third-sector management types, academy trust chairs, that sort of thing.

    I see they are running Donald Tusk's former finance minister second on the list in London behind Esler - why isn't he top of the list as surely he is a stronger sell and there is a large Polish expat vote in the capital?

    Its one region where you would expect them to be likely to win a seat.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    Danny565 said:
    2% annual wealth tax is pretty high by international standards
    She’s also careful to avoid mentioning that it would need to be levied annually. So over 20 years it would expropriate more than half of someone’s wealth. Obviously that definitely won’t result in any changes in behaviour whatsoever..
    How does that maths work?
    It doesn't. 0.98 to the power 20 is 0.67, so one third over 20 years.
    I mean bloody hell though.
    Assuming no investment return on the wealth, however. And perhaps more importantly, no avoidance.
    2% is effectively going to wipe the return most people make, in real terms. Unless they can afford a wealth manager, in which case not as much.

    So strangely backwards.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    Danny565 said:
    2% annual wealth tax is pretty high by international standards
    She’s also careful to avoid mentioning that it would need to be levied annually. So over 20 years it would expropriate more than half of someone’s wealth. Obviously that definitely won’t result in any changes in behaviour whatsoever..
    How does that maths work?
    (1.02^20) -1 = 0.5
    So assuming the value of the asset doesn’t change over time, after 20 years you’ll have paid half the value of it in tax.

    If instead you did it simple interest on a diminishing value (eg selling shares each year to pay the tax) then you’d need about 27 years for it to be cut in half.
    They aren't getting paid 2% of their original wealth as a rebate for 20 years and then getting clobbered for their entire previous wealth in 20 years time though ??
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Brom said:

    I'm quite interested in the tone of the Mail Online/Daily Mail towards The Brexit Party - which so far seems fairly supportive. Dacre gave oxygen to Farage, but would happily rip UKIP apart at elections to protect the Tory vote. Grieg is at least a soft Brexit supporter (if not a remainer) yet the Brexit Party (who do seem well organised and quite refreshing to many) are getting some very positive press.

    I wonder if The Mail are building them up to tear them down, if Grieg ( a good friend of George Osborne) hates May so much he will support whoever it takes to oust her, or maybe he just sees The BP as a positive step in the realignment of politics.

    The Mail have been pretty friendly to May in the last year but I think even they cannot talk her up at present.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    The full CUKTIG list is so Blairite it hurts. Lots of third-sector management types, academy trust chairs, that sort of thing.

    And in Simor, Godfrey, Adonis and Esler you've got some of the prominent faces of the FBPE rabble. Plaudits to The Brexit Party for having an impressive range of backgrounds and opinions but also having so many faces that are new to frontline politics. In some ways it's quite similar to what David Cameron was doing a decade ago. Maybe we'll find the next Heidi Allen!
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    I fully expect some Tory MPs will, in the privacy of the voting booth, opt for the Brexit Party. That will mirror the actions of 50%+ of party members and a very sizeable minority of councillors. Probably not many CCHQ staff though.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    nico67 said:

    The best chance for Change UK is London .

    Percentage wise you need less there to get an MEP . I’d expect them to get their best share of the vote there.

    It would be rather amusing ,given the trouble that the Brexit Party and Changeuk have taken to select candidates , to suddenly discover that the EU elections were not to go ahead!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    justin124 said:

    nico67 said:

    The best chance for Change UK is London .

    Percentage wise you need less there to get an MEP . I’d expect them to get their best share of the vote there.

    It would be rather amusing ,given the trouble that the Brexit Party and Changeuk have taken to select candidates , to suddenly discover that the EU elections were not to go ahead!
    Would be worth it for the looks on their faces alone
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    justin124 said:

    nico67 said:

    The best chance for Change UK is London .

    Percentage wise you need less there to get an MEP . I’d expect them to get their best share of the vote there.

    It would be rather amusing ,given the trouble that the Brexit Party and Changeuk have taken to select candidates , to suddenly discover that the EU elections were not to go ahead!
    Jacek Rostowski who is the 2nd candidate under Esler for CUK was 2nd in command to Donald Tusk in the Polish government. Talk about random.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    Danny565 said:
    2% annual wealth tax is pretty high by international standards
    She’s also careful to avoid mentioning that it would need to be levied annually. So over 20 years it would expropriate more than half of someone’s wealth. Obviously that definitely won’t result in any changes in behaviour whatsoever..
    How does that maths work?
    (1.02^20) -1 = 0.5
    So assuming the value of the asset doesn’t change over time, after 20 years you’ll have paid half the value of it in tax.

    If instead you did it simple interest on a diminishing value (eg selling shares each year to pay the tax) then you’d need about 27 years for it to be cut in half.
    They aren't getting paid 2% of their original wealth as a rebate for 20 years and then getting clobbered for their entire previous wealth in 20 years time though ??
    Hmm, I’ve got that one wrong haven’t I?

    I think @Richard_Nabavi’s equation is correct.

    All this of course assumes no changes in behaviour over time, nor the rate of an established tax being jacked by populist politicians - “Vote for me and I’ll make it 5%”. What’s likely in practice is a huge increase in complicated trusts and charitable vehicles.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    Danny565 said:
    2% annual wealth tax is pretty high by international standards
    She’s also careful to avoid mentioning that it would need to be levied annually. So over 20 years it would expropriate more than half of someone’s wealth. Obviously that definitely won’t result in any changes in behaviour whatsoever..
    How does that maths work?
    It doesn't. 0.98 to the power 20 is 0.67, so one third lost over 20 years.
    I'm more diplomatic than you Richard!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    kle4 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Fwiw the Corbynistas I follow on twitter are getting RSI from tweeting derogatory stuff about ChUK, nada about Nigel and his merry men (& women).

    https://twitter.com/alexvtunzelmann/status/1120643969124306944?s=21
    I am really struggling to understand the new political fascination with ex-mil types. As if it qualifies you for anything but supplying a rich vein of stories that start, "So there I was...
    You underestimate the importance of that. My lack of ability to start stories that way is a true hindrance
    It's easy!

    "So there I was, sitting on my sofa, watching this bloke and he did..."
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    brendan16 said:

    The full CUKTIG list is so Blairite it hurts. Lots of third-sector management types, academy trust chairs, that sort of thing.

    I see they are running Donald Tusk's former finance minister second on the list in London behind Esler - why isn't he top of the list as surely he is a stronger sell and there is a large Polish expat vote in the capital?

    Its one region where you would expect them to be likely to win a seat.
    Perhaps because they expect to win one seat. And have the second as a stretch target?
    Or maybe they haven't thought it through?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    Danny565 said:
    2% annual wealth tax is pretty high by international standards
    She’s also careful to avoid mentioning that it would need to be levied annually. So over 20 years it would expropriate more than half of someone’s wealth. Obviously that definitely won’t result in any changes in behaviour whatsoever..
    How does that maths work?
    (1.02^20) -1 = 0.5
    So assuming the value of the asset doesn’t change over time, after 20 years you’ll have paid half the value of it in tax.

    If instead you did it simple interest on a diminishing value (eg selling shares each year to pay the tax) then you’d need about 27 years for it to be cut in half.
    They aren't getting paid 2% of their original wealth as a rebate for 20 years and then getting clobbered for their entire previous wealth in 20 years time though ??
    Hmm, I’ve got that one wrong haven’t I?

    I think @Richard_Nabavi’s equation is correct.

    All this of course assumes no changes in behaviour over time, nor the rate of an established tax being jacked by populist politicians - “Vote for me and I’ll make it 5%”. What’s likely in practice is a huge increase in complicated trusts and charitable vehicles.
    If I had £100 and I now have £67, I've lost a third of its original value - but half of its new value.

    Though I think the former is more natural.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Change U.K. have pissed me off with their inability to work with the LDs. Strategic blunder of the highest order.

    The problem with them is they see themselves as the beginning of a new centrist force, like En Marche, but there is no sign at all that the public wish them to perform that role.

    The have one job to do right now, which is foil Brexit. Everything else is trivia.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    Danny565 said:
    2% annual wealth tax is pretty high by international standards
    She’s also careful to avoid mentioning that it would need to be levied annually. So over 20 years it would expropriate more than half of someone’s wealth. Obviously that definitely won’t result in any changes in behaviour whatsoever..
    How does that maths work?
    It doesn't. 0.98 to the power 20 is 0.67, so one third over 20 years.
    I mean bloody hell though.
    Assuming no investment return on the wealth, however. And perhaps more importantly, no avoidance.
    2% is effectively going to wipe the return most people make, in real terms. Unless they can afford a wealth manager, in which case not as much.

    So strangely backwards.
    Warren's plan starts at 50 million dollars, so the people liable to pay it can probably afford to get someone to advise
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Danny565 said:

    She's so good

    Her analysis of the JAMs before they were called JAMs is excellent.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=akVL7QY0S8A
    I find her so fascinating, especially given she was a Republican for many years.

    To me, she seems like one of the only politicians who's been advocating genuine social democracy in recent years (as opposed to either full-fat socialism or "centrism", aka neoliberalism plus virtue-signalling). She obviously believes in a strong private-sector, even if she thinks letting certain companies get too big is no good for anyone (especially for small businesses who get totally crowded out). And she doesn't believe in total equality of outcome, she thinks there will always and should always be some people who are wealthier than others, even though she thinks the proportions should be much smaller than now. That politics appeals to me, but maybe it's too wishy-washy to appeal to a lot of people right now, hence her polling.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    Scott_P said:
    Caption : "You are really in my party? Amazing amazing. Alan Sked says he recalls me saying that n.., I mean people of "diverse backgrounds", would not vote for UKIP..... well that was then, amazing amazing, what will Vlad say when I tell him?"
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,714

    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    Danny565 said:
    2% annual wealth tax is pretty high by international standards
    She’s also careful to avoid mentioning that it would need to be levied annually. So over 20 years it would expropriate more than half of someone’s wealth. Obviously that definitely won’t result in any changes in behaviour whatsoever..
    How does that maths work?
    It doesn't. 0.98 to the power 20 is 0.67, so one third over 20 years.
    I mean bloody hell though.
    Assuming no investment return on the wealth, however. And perhaps more importantly, no avoidance.
    2% is effectively going to wipe the return most people make, in real terms. Unless they can afford a wealth manager, in which case not as much.

    So strangely backwards.
    Politically this hinges on the definition of 'wealthiest families'. When people say this, they think of the very richest people - whether old money or dot-com billionaire. Few people think of themselves as the 'wealthiest families' - yet to generate worthwhile amounts, that term has to encompass more than a few people - especially when those with the wherewithall take the Jimmy Carr route.

    It therefore creates a fear. Many people think: "I'm not wealthy, but I am well off (through my own hard work). What happens when the pips have been squeezed out of the rich and they start looking a little bit lower?"

    As such, it's quite easy to attack - and more so in the US than over here.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    Danny565 said:
    2% annual wealth tax is pretty high by international standards
    She’s also careful to avoid mentioning that it would need to be levied annually. So over 20 years it would expropriate more than half of someone’s wealth. Obviously that definitely won’t result in any changes in behaviour whatsoever..
    How does that maths work?
    It doesn't. 0.98 to the power 20 is 0.67, so one third over 20 years.
    I mean bloody hell though.
    The other way of looking at it is you should be able to generate a return of about 6.0% (CPI + 4%) on a consistent basis with a balanced portfolio.

    You currently pay 40% income tax on this (for simplicity), so your return after tax is 3.6% (or CPI + 1.6%)

    If you have a flat charge of 2% p.a. on top of this then your return would be 1.6%

    Effectively you will be taking all of the return in excess of inflation plus a small slice, so the asset pool would diminish in real terms.

    The crossover is at a return of about 6.75% which is pretty punchy by most standards (my asset managers have delivered around 6.5% p.a. over the last 7 years with a moderate amount of risk).
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    Danny565 said:
    2% annual wealth tax is pretty high by international standards
    She’s also careful to avoid mentioning that it would need to be levied annually. So over 20 years it would expropriate more than half of someone’s wealth. Obviously that definitely won’t result in any changes in behaviour whatsoever..
    How does that maths work?
    (1.02^20) -1 = 0.5
    So assuming the value of the asset doesn’t change over time, after 20 years you’ll have paid half the value of it in tax.

    If instead you did it simple interest on a diminishing value (eg selling shares each year to pay the tax) then you’d need about 27 years for it to be cut in half.
    Sadly they are charging you not giving you the money! It should be (0.98^20) - 1 per @Richard_Nabavi
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    Change U.K. have pissed me off with their inability to work with the LDs. Strategic blunder of the highest order.

    The problem with them is they see themselves as the beginning of a new centrist force, like En Marche, but there is no sign at all that the public wish them to perform that role.

    The have one job to do right now, which is foil Brexit. Everything else is trivia.

    Gives this PB Tory something to smile about, in an otherwise dark and gloomy time. :p
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    Danny565 said:
    2% annual wealth tax is pretty high by international standards
    She’s also careful to avoid mentioning that it would need to be levied annually. So over 20 years it would expropriate more than half of someone’s wealth. Obviously that definitely won’t result in any changes in behaviour whatsoever..
    How does that maths work?
    (1.02^20) -1 = 0.5
    So assuming the value of the asset doesn’t change over time, after 20 years you’ll have paid half the value of it in tax.

    If instead you did it simple interest on a diminishing value (eg selling shares each year to pay the tax) then you’d need about 27 years for it to be cut in half.
    Sadly they are charging you not giving you the money! It should be (0.98^20) - 1 per @Richard_Nabavi
    Yeah yeah, I got it the wrong way around. Not enough coffee today clearly.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,006
    Dura_Ace said:




    I know he won it in 2014 but doesn't Hamilton always underperform at SPOTY unless it's generally a boring year for UK sport? I fully accept that he's a fantastic driver but the worst fashion sense in sport apart, there seems to be a curious hole where a personality should be.

    I once sold some old Porsche bits to a guy who works for McLaren F1. He told me LewHam's hair transplant cost 100 grand. #jesuischarles
    He wuz robbed.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    Danny565 said:
    2% annual wealth tax is pretty high by international standards
    She’s also careful to avoid mentioning that it would need to be levied annually. So over 20 years it would expropriate more than half of someone’s wealth. Obviously that definitely won’t result in any changes in behaviour whatsoever..
    How does that maths work?
    It doesn't. 0.98 to the power 20 is 0.67, so one third over 20 years.
    I mean bloody hell though.
    The other way of looking at it is you should be able to generate a return of about 6.0% (CPI + 4%) on a consistent basis with a balanced portfolio.

    You currently pay 40% income tax on this (for simplicity), so your return after tax is 3.6% (or CPI + 1.6%)

    If you have a flat charge of 2% p.a. on top of this then your return would be 1.6%

    Effectively you will be taking all of the return in excess of inflation plus a small slice, so the asset pool would diminish in real terms.

    The crossover is at a return of about 6.75% which is pretty punchy by most standards (my asset managers have delivered around 6.5% p.a. over the last 7 years with a moderate amount of risk).
    Surely the whole point is to shrink the assets of the super rich, and to redistribute?

  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    Brom said:

    The full CUKTIG list is so Blairite it hurts. Lots of third-sector management types, academy trust chairs, that sort of thing.

    And in Simor, Godfrey, Adonis and Esler you've got some of the prominent faces of the FBPE rabble. Plaudits to The Brexit Party for having an impressive range of backgrounds and opinions but also having so many faces that are new to frontline politics. In some ways it's quite similar to what David Cameron was doing a decade ago. Maybe we'll find the next Heidi Allen!
    A range of opinions? You are having a laugh. The BP simply by-passes the N for Nationalist in the middle. Another bunch of swivel eyed fanatics with a few token gullible "respectable" people thrown in to draw attention away from the nasty bunch of dangerous headbangers that they are; a party headed by man even more narcissistic than Boris Johnson and who is an apologist for Vladimir Putin .
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,383

    Change U.K. have pissed me off with their inability to work with the LDs. Strategic blunder of the highest order.

    The problem with them is they see themselves as the beginning of a new centrist force, like En Marche, but there is no sign at all that the public wish them to perform that role.

    The have one job to do right now, which is foil Brexit. Everything else is trivia.

    Coming at it from the opposing point of view, I think you're entirely correct about that.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    Brom said:

    The full CUKTIG list is so Blairite it hurts. Lots of third-sector management types, academy trust chairs, that sort of thing.

    And in Simor, Godfrey, Adonis and Esler you've got some of the prominent faces of the FBPE rabble. Plaudits to The Brexit Party for having an impressive range of backgrounds and opinions but also having so many faces that are new to frontline politics. In some ways it's quite similar to what David Cameron was doing a decade ago. Maybe we'll find the next Heidi Allen!
    A range of opinions? You are having a laugh. The BP simply by-passes the N for Nationalist in the middle. Another bunch of swivel eyed fanatics with a few token gullible "respectable" people thrown in to draw attention away from the nasty bunch of dangerous headbangers that they are; a party headed by man even more narcissistic than Boris Johnson and who is an apologist for Vladimir Putin .
    I thought George Osborne had retired from politics
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,870

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    Danny565 said:
    2% annual wealth tax is pretty high by international standards
    She’s also careful to avoid mentioning that it would need to be levied annually. So over 20 years it would expropriate more than half of someone’s wealth. Obviously that definitely won’t result in any changes in behaviour whatsoever..
    How does that maths work?
    (1.02^20) -1 = 0.5
    So assuming the value of the asset doesn’t change over time, after 20 years you’ll have paid half the value of it in tax.

    If instead you did it simple interest on a diminishing value (eg selling shares each year to pay the tax) then you’d need about 27 years for it to be cut in half.
    They aren't getting paid 2% of their original wealth as a rebate for 20 years and then getting clobbered for their entire previous wealth in 20 years time though ??
    Hmm, I’ve got that one wrong haven’t I?

    I think @Richard_Nabavi’s equation is correct.

    All this of course assumes no changes in behaviour over time, nor the rate of an established tax being jacked by populist politicians - “Vote for me and I’ll make it 5%”. What’s likely in practice is a huge increase in complicated trusts and charitable vehicles.
    If I had £100 and I now have £67, I've lost a third of its original value - but half of its new value.

    Though I think the former is more natural.
    Serves you right for following Dancer’s F1 tips ;)
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,383

    West Midlands

    Stephen Dorrell
    Charlotte Gath
    Peter Widing
    Amrik Kandola
    Joanna McKenna
    Victor Odusanya
    Lucinda Epson

    SW

    Rachel Johnson
    Jim Godfrey
    Oli Middleton
    Matthew Hooberman
    Liz Sewell
    Crispin Hunt

    NW

    Andrea Cooper
    Daniel Price
    Arun Banerji
    Michael Taylor
    Philippa Olive
    Victoria Desmond
    Andrew Graystone
    Elizabeth Knight

    NE

    Frances Weetman
    Penny Hawley
    Kathryn Heywood

    Yorkshire

    Diana Wallis
    Juliet Lodge
    Stephen Bow
    Joshua Malkin
    Ros McMullen
    Steve Wilson

    Wales

    Jon Owen Jones
    June Davies
    Matthew Paul
    Sally Stephenson

    Scotland

    Joseph Russo
    David McDonald
    Kate Forman
    Peter Griffiths
    Heather Astbury
    Catherine Edgeworth

    London

    Esler
    Jan Vincent-Rostowki
    Carole Tongue
    Annabel Mullin
    Karen Newman
    Ali Sadjady Naiery
    Nora Mulready
    Jessica Simor

    South East

    Richard Ashworth
    Victoria Groufel
    Warren Morgan
    Eleonor FUller
    Robin Baxtor
    Nicholas Mazzei
    Sazana Carp
    Phil Murphy
    Heather Allen
    Diane Yeo


    East

    Emma Taylor
    Neil Carmichael
    Bhavna Joshi
    Michelle de Vries
    Amanda Gummer
    Thomas Graham
    Roger Casale

    East Midlands

    Kate Godfrey
    Joan Laplana
    Narinder Sharma
    Pankajhmar Gulab
    Emma Jane Manley

    For a moment, I thought that was Andrew Cooper in the North West.

    I'm guessing that Peter Griffiths is not the former MP for Portsmouth North and Smethwick.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited April 2019
    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    Danny565 said:
    2% annual wealth tax is pretty high by international standards
    She’s also careful to avoid mentioning that it would need to be levied annually. So over 20 years it would expropriate more than half of someone’s wealth. Obviously that definitely won’t result in any changes in behaviour whatsoever..
    How does that maths work?
    It doesn't. 0.98 to the power 20 is 0.67, so one third over 20 years.
    I mean bloody hell though.
    The other way of looking at it is you should be able to generate a return of about 6.0% (CPI + 4%) on a consistent basis with a balanced portfolio.

    You currently pay 40% income tax on this (for simplicity), so your return after tax is 3.6% (or CPI + 1.6%)

    If you have a flat charge of 2% p.a. on top of this then your return would be 1.6%

    Effectively you will be taking all of the return in excess of inflation plus a small slice, so the asset pool would diminish in real terms.

    The crossover is at a return of about 6.75% which is pretty punchy by most standards (my asset managers have delivered around 6.5% p.a. over the last 7 years with a moderate amount of risk).
    Surely the whole point is to shrink the assets of the super rich, and to redistribute?

    The problem is that they are switching investible capital into revenue spending.

    So, effectively, they are reducing the stock of investible capital which will make the country worse off over time.

    Fundamentally, government redistribution/social spending should be funded from revenue based taxes (income tax, sales tax, profits tax, etc) while government service provision should be funded by flattish/non-profit based taxes.

    Wealth is better taxed on the income that it generates than on the capital itself.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698
    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    Danny565 said:
    2% annual wealth tax is pretty high by international standards
    She’s also careful to avoid mentioning that it would need to be levied annually. So over 20 years it would expropriate more than half of someone’s wealth. Obviously that definitely won’t result in any changes in behaviour whatsoever..
    How does that maths work?
    It doesn't. 0.98 to the power 20 is 0.67, so one third over 20 years.
    I mean bloody hell though.
    The other way of looking at it is you should be able to generate a return of about 6.0% (CPI + 4%) on a consistent basis with a balanced portfolio.

    You currently pay 40% income tax on this (for simplicity), so your return after tax is 3.6% (or CPI + 1.6%)

    If you have a flat charge of 2% p.a. on top of this then your return would be 1.6%

    Effectively you will be taking all of the return in excess of inflation plus a small slice, so the asset pool would diminish in real terms.

    The crossover is at a return of about 6.75% which is pretty punchy by most standards (my asset managers have delivered around 6.5% p.a. over the last 7 years with a moderate amount of risk).
    Surely the whole point is to shrink the assets of the super rich, and to redistribute?

    Then you get the question of why the super-rich should bother to generate income.

    My grandfather (he was a QC so well off rather than super-rich) was paying 106% income tax at one point which was a disincentive to earn money!
    Er... did it stop him?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    Danny565 said:
    2% annual wealth tax is pretty high by international standards
    She’s also careful to avoid mentioning that it would need to be levied annually. So over 20 years it would expropriate more than half of someone’s wealth. Obviously that definitely won’t result in any changes in behaviour whatsoever..
    How does that maths work?
    (1.02^20) -1 = 0.5
    So assuming the value of the asset doesn’t change over time, after 20 years you’ll have paid half the value of it in tax.

    If instead you did it simple interest on a diminishing value (eg selling shares each year to pay the tax) then you’d need about 27 years for it to be cut in half.
    They aren't getting paid 2% of their original wealth as a rebate for 20 years and then getting clobbered for their entire previous wealth in 20 years time though ??
    Hmm, I’ve got that one wrong haven’t I?

    I think @Richard_Nabavi’s equation is correct.

    All this of course assumes no changes in behaviour over time, nor the rate of an established tax being jacked by populist politicians - “Vote for me and I’ll make it 5%”. What’s likely in practice is a huge increase in complicated trusts and charitable vehicles.
    If I had £100 and I now have £67, I've lost a third of its original value - but half of its new value.

    Though I think the former is more natural.
    Serves you right for following Dancer’s F1 tips ;)
    That’s a bit harsh, the week after he had an 8/1 tip come in.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698
    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    Danny565 said:
    2% annual wealth tax is pretty high by international standards
    She’s also careful to avoid mentioning that it would need to be levied annually. So over 20 years it would expropriate more than half of someone’s wealth. Obviously that definitely won’t result in any changes in behaviour whatsoever..
    How does that maths work?
    It doesn't. 0.98 to the power 20 is 0.67, so one third over 20 years.
    I mean bloody hell though.
    The other way of looking at it is you should be able to generate a return of about 6.0% (CPI + 4%) on a consistent basis with a balanced portfolio.

    You currently pay 40% income tax on this (for simplicity), so your return after tax is 3.6% (or CPI + 1.6%)

    If you have a flat charge of 2% p.a. on top of this then your return would be 1.6%

    Effectively you will be taking all of the return in excess of inflation plus a small slice, so the asset pool would diminish in real terms.

    The crossover is at a return of about 6.75% which is pretty punchy by most standards (my asset managers have delivered around 6.5% p.a. over the last 7 years with a moderate amount of risk).
    Surely the whole point is to shrink the assets of the super rich, and to redistribute?

    The problem is that they are switching investible capital into revenue spending.

    So, effectively, they are reducing the stock of investible capital which will make the country worse off over time.

    Fundamentally, government redistribution/social spending should be funded from revenue based taxes (income tax, sales tax, profits tax, etc) while government service provision should be funded by flattish/non-profit based taxes.

    Wealth is better taxed on the income that it generates than on the capital itself.
    Better for whom?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Scott_P said:
    Damn. Better call the whole thing off then.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698

    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    Danny565 said:
    2% annual wealth tax is pretty high by international standards
    She’s also careful to avoid mentioning that it would need to be levied annually. So over 20 years it would expropriate more than half of someone’s wealth. Obviously that definitely won’t result in any changes in behaviour whatsoever..
    How does that maths work?
    It doesn't. 0.98 to the power 20 is 0.67, so one third over 20 years.
    I mean bloody hell though.
    Assuming no investment return on the wealth, however. And perhaps more importantly, no avoidance.
    2% is effectively going to wipe the return most people make, in real terms. Unless they can afford a wealth manager, in which case not as much.

    So strangely backwards.
    4% + RPI is generally reckoned to be averagely doable.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591

    Change U.K. have pissed me off with their inability to work with the LDs. Strategic blunder of the highest order.

    The problem with them is they see themselves as the beginning of a new centrist force, like En Marche, but there is no sign at all that the public wish them to perform that role.

    The have one job to do right now, which is foil Brexit. Everything else is trivia.

    Indeed. And in that context it is surprising and disappointing that they have said they would not support a VONC. Such a vote might well put a further spanner in the Brexit works, TIGs position seems to be that their careers come before the national interest. Just like the old politics they claim to be so strongly opposed to.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    Danny565 said:
    2% annual wealth tax is pretty high by international standards
    She’s also careful to avoid mentioning that it would need to be levied annually. So over 20 years it would expropriate more than half of someone’s wealth. Obviously that definitely won’t result in any changes in behaviour whatsoever..
    How does that maths work?
    It doesn't. 0.98 to the power 20 is 0.67, so one third over 20 years.
    I mean bloody hell though.
    The other way of looking at it is you should be able to generate a return of about 6.0% (CPI + 4%) on a consistent basis with a balanced portfolio.

    You currently pay 40% income tax on this (for simplicity), so your return after tax is 3.6% (or CPI + 1.6%)

    If you have a flat charge of 2% p.a. on top of this then your return would be 1.6%

    Effectively you will be taking all of the return in excess of inflation plus a small slice, so the asset pool would diminish in real terms.

    The crossover is at a return of about 6.75% which is pretty punchy by most standards (my asset managers have delivered around 6.5% p.a. over the last 7 years with a moderate amount of risk).
    Surely the whole point is to shrink the assets of the super rich, and to redistribute?

    Then you get the question of why the super-rich should bother to generate income.

    My grandfather (he was a QC so well off rather than super-rich) was paying 106% income tax at one point which was a disincentive to earn money!
    Er... did it stop him?
    He spent more of his time writing theological tomes and corresponding with ++Cantab as a direct result!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,870
    Its
    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    Danny565 said:
    2% annual wealth tax is pretty high by international standards
    She’s also careful to avoid mentioning that it would need to be levied annually. So over 20 years it would expropriate more than half of someone’s wealth. Obviously that definitely won’t result in any changes in behaviour whatsoever..
    How does that maths work?
    (1.02^20) -1 = 0.5
    So assuming the value of the asset doesn’t change over time, after 20 years you’ll have paid half the value of it in tax.

    If instead you did it simple interest on a diminishing value (eg selling shares each year to pay the tax) then you’d need about 27 years for it to be cut in half.
    They aren't getting paid 2% of their original wealth as a rebate for 20 years and then getting clobbered for their entire previous wealth in 20 years time though ??
    Hmm, I’ve got that one wrong haven’t I?

    I think @Richard_Nabavi’s equation is correct.

    All this of course assumes no changes in behaviour over time, nor the rate of an established tax being jacked by populist politicians - “Vote for me and I’ll make it 5%”. What’s likely in practice is a huge increase in complicated trusts and charitable vehicles.
    If I had £100 and I now have £67, I've lost a third of its original value - but half of its new value.

    Though I think the former is more natural.
    Serves you right for following Dancer’s F1 tips ;)
    That’s a bit harsh, the week after he had an 8/1 tip come in.
    It’s unreasonably harsh, given that the last tip I followed was a clear winner. But I couldn’t resist.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    New thread!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Change U.K. have pissed me off with their inability to work with the LDs. Strategic blunder of the highest order.

    The problem with them is they see themselves as the beginning of a new centrist force, like En Marche, but there is no sign at all that the public wish them to perform that role.

    The have one job to do right now, which is foil Brexit. Everything else is trivia.

    Indeed. And in that context it is surprising and disappointing that they have said they would not support a VONC. Such a vote might well put a further spanner in the Brexit works, TIGs position seems to be that their careers come before the national interest. Just like the old politics they claim to be so strongly opposed to.
    They sacrificed their careers . They are now fearful of losing their seats, clearly, but careerists that does not make them.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,722

    Change U.K. have pissed me off with their inability to work with the LDs. Strategic blunder of the highest order.

    The problem with them is they see themselves as the beginning of a new centrist force, like En Marche, but there is no sign at all that the public wish them to perform that role.

    The have one job to do right now, which is foil Brexit. Everything else is trivia.

    Indeed. And in that context it is surprising and disappointing that they have said they would not support a VONC. Such a vote might well put a further spanner in the Brexit works, TIGs position seems to be that their careers come before the national interest. Just like the old politics they claim to be so strongly opposed to.
    Not only that, but hypocrisy is in their very name. Should be NoChangeUK.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    Danny565 said:
    2% annual wealth tax is pretty high by international standards
    She’s also careful to avoid mentioning that it would need to be levied annually. So over 20 years it would expropriate more than half of someone’s wealth. Obviously that definitely won’t result in any changes in behaviour whatsoever..
    How does that maths work?
    It doesn't. 0.98 to the power 20 is 0.67, so one third over 20 years.
    I mean bloody hell though.
    The other way of looking at it is you should be able to generate a return of about 6.0% (CPI + 4%) on a consistent basis with a balanced portfolio.

    You currently pay 40% income tax on this (for simplicity), so your return after tax is 3.6% (or CPI + 1.6%)

    If you have a flat charge of 2% p.a. on top of this then your return would be 1.6%

    Effectively you will be taking all of the return in excess of inflation plus a small slice, so the asset pool would diminish in real terms.

    The crossover is at a return of about 6.75% which is pretty punchy by most standards (my asset managers have delivered around 6.5% p.a. over the last 7 years with a moderate amount of risk).
    Surely the whole point is to shrink the assets of the super rich, and to redistribute?

    The problem is that they are switching investible capital into revenue spending.

    So, effectively, they are reducing the stock of investible capital which will make the country worse off over time.

    Fundamentally, government redistribution/social spending should be funded from revenue based taxes (income tax, sales tax, profits tax, etc) while government service provision should be funded by flattish/non-profit based taxes.

    Wealth is better taxed on the income that it generates than on the capital itself.
    Better for whom?
    Better for everyone, in my view.

    If you convert wealth to revenue you end up with no assets. It's better to leave surplus assets as income generating.

    If you want to redistribute wealth just do it - take a slice and park it into a sovereign wealth fund or something.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591

    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    Danny565 said:
    2% annual wealth tax is pretty high by international standards
    She’s also careful to avoid mentioning that it would need to be levied annually. So over 20 years it would expropriate more than half of someone’s wealth. Obviously that definitely won’t result in any changes in behaviour whatsoever..
    How does that maths work?
    It doesn't. 0.98 to the power 20 is 0.67, so one third over 20 years.
    I mean bloody hell though.
    Assuming no investment return on the wealth, however. And perhaps more importantly, no avoidance.
    2% is effectively going to wipe the return most people make, in real terms. Unless they can afford a wealth manager, in which case not as much.

    So strangely backwards.
    4% + RPI is generally reckoned to be averagely doable.
    Quite. The FTSE 100 returns more than 4% in dividends alone at the moment before including any capital growth.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698
    Anyone with $50m is probably making $2m+inflation by simply doing sweet FA. Some of that will be income and taxed, some capital appreciation and taxed but at $50m most will have found ways to avoid some of that.

    I haven't seen the detail of Warren's proposal but there has to be a case for an annual tax on wealth to replace IHT and CGT.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,870
    Sean_F said:

    West Midlands

    Stephen Dorrell
    Charlotte Gath
    Peter Widing
    Amrik Kandola
    Joanna McKenna
    Victor Odusanya
    Lucinda Epson

    SW

    Rachel Johnson
    Jim Godfrey
    Oli Middleton
    Matthew Hooberman
    Liz Sewell
    Crispin Hunt

    NW

    Andrea Cooper
    Daniel Price
    Arun Banerji
    Michael Taylor
    Philippa Olive
    Victoria Desmond
    Andrew Graystone
    Elizabeth Knight

    NE

    Frances Weetman
    Penny Hawley
    Kathryn Heywood

    Yorkshire

    Diana Wallis
    Juliet Lodge
    Stephen Bow
    Joshua Malkin
    Ros McMullen
    Steve Wilson

    Wales

    Jon Owen Jones
    June Davies
    Matthew Paul
    Sally Stephenson

    Scotland

    Joseph Russo
    David McDonald
    Kate Forman
    Peter Griffiths
    Heather Astbury
    Catherine Edgeworth

    London

    Esler
    Jan Vincent-Rostowki
    Carole Tongue
    Annabel Mullin
    Karen Newman
    Ali Sadjady Naiery
    Nora Mulready
    Jessica Simor

    South East

    Richard Ashworth
    Victoria Groufel
    Warren Morgan
    Eleonor FUller
    Robin Baxtor
    Nicholas Mazzei
    Sazana Carp
    Phil Murphy
    Heather Allen
    Diane Yeo


    East

    Emma Taylor
    Neil Carmichael
    Bhavna Joshi
    Michelle de Vries
    Amanda Gummer
    Thomas Graham
    Roger Casale

    East Midlands

    Kate Godfrey
    Joan Laplana
    Narinder Sharma
    Pankajhmar Gulab
    Emma Jane Manley

    For a moment, I thought that was Andrew Cooper in the North West.

    I'm guessing that Peter Griffiths is not the former MP for Portsmouth North and Smethwick.

    In the South East I think I will stick with the LibDems. Voting to rescue a Tory MEP they recently threw out from their group isn’t my idea of Change UK.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    Danny565 said:
    2% annual wealth tax is pretty high by international standards
    She’s also careful to avoid mentioning that it would need to be levied annually. So over 20 years it would expropriate more than half of someone’s wealth. Obviously that definitely won’t result in any changes in behaviour whatsoever..
    How does that maths work?
    It doesn't. 0.98 to the power 20 is 0.67, so one third over 20 years.
    I mean bloody hell though.
    The other way of looking at it is you should be able to generate a return of about 6.0% (CPI + 4%) on a consistent basis with a balanced portfolio.

    You currently pay 40% income tax on this (for simplicity), so your return after tax is 3.6% (or CPI + 1.6%)

    If you have a flat charge of 2% p.a. on top of this then your return would be 1.6%

    Effectively you will be taking all of the return in excess of inflation plus a small slice, so the asset pool would diminish in real terms.

    The crossover is at a return of about 6.75% which is pretty punchy by most standards (my asset managers have delivered around 6.5% p.a. over the last 7 years with a moderate amount of risk).
    Surely the whole point is to shrink the assets of the super rich, and to redistribute?

    The problem is that they are switching investible capital into revenue spending.

    So, effectively, they are reducing the stock of investible capital which will make the country worse off over time.

    Fundamentally, government redistribution/social spending should be funded from revenue based taxes (income tax, sales tax, profits tax, etc) while government service provision should be funded by flattish/non-profit based taxes.

    Wealth is better taxed on the income that it generates than on the capital itself.
    Better for whom?
    Better for everyone, in my view.

    If you convert wealth to revenue you end up with no assets. It's better to leave surplus assets as income generating.

    If you want to redistribute wealth just do it - take a slice and park it into a sovereign wealth fund or something.
    Your second paragraph is certainly sound advice for individuals fortunate enough to have the assets in the first place; I was more interested in what was best for the country.

    I suspect the next Labour government will be introducing a wealth tax.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    Danny565 said:
    2% annual wealth tax is pretty high by international standards
    She’s also careful to avoid mentioning that it would need to be levied annually. So over 20 years it would expropriate more than half of someone’s wealth. Obviously that definitely won’t result in any changes in behaviour whatsoever..
    How does that maths work?
    It doesn't. 0.98 to the power 20 is 0.67, so one third over 20 years.
    I mean bloody hell though.
    The other way of looking at it is you should be able to generate a return of about 6.0% (CPI + 4%) on a consistent basis with a balanced portfolio.

    You currently pay 40% income tax on this (for simplicity), so your return after tax is 3.6% (or CPI + 1.6%)

    If you have a flat charge of 2% p.a. on top of this then your return would be 1.6%

    Effectively you will be taking all of the return in excess of inflation plus a small slice, so the asset pool would diminish in real terms.

    The crossover is at a return of about 6.75% which is pretty punchy by most standards (my asset managers have delivered around 6.5% p.a. over the last 7 years with a moderate amount of risk).
    I can't see how the average return on wealth over an extended time frame can beat growth in GDP (possibly a ratio of the GDP for multiple national economies) plus inflation rate. An individual can do better and can also do worse but the average is constrained.
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