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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The CON Westminster polling looks dire as we head into next mo

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  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720

    Fwiw the Corbynistas I follow on twitter are getting RSI from tweeting derogatory stuff about ChUK, nada about Nigel and his merry men (& women).

    https://twitter.com/alexvtunzelmann/status/1120643969124306944?s=21
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758



    It's a subtle balance, isn't it? I really like Eritrean food and I'd be quite pleased to get a text saying "You are just 500 metres from an Eritrean restaurant at High Road 43." Similarly I don't mind getting a moderate amount of spam on computer games as I'm interested in what's coming out. But personalising is intrusive in a very American way, like the staff in restaurants who say ,"Hi, I'm Cindy, and I'm gonna make sure you have a great time today!" It's the false chumminess that I react against, not the relevant information.

    Oh, and more relevantly to here, I hate those political letters that are mock-personalised. "Nick, it's really important to vote next Thursday. We know you want to stop the Tories, Nick, and this is your chance to do it." Do they think we're idiots that we don't know about mail merge?
    How many of those letters have you sent in your career, Nick?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited April 2019
    So this EU election will, among thee things, be a Battle Of The Sisters with JRMs sister on the LEAVE side and Boris's sister for REMAIN! :D
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Didn't she try to stand for the LDs once?
    Hasn't everyone :D
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,383
    @Morris Dancer, I've sent you a PM.
  • Sorry, came late to the conversation and actually thought the Fox who joined brexit today was actually Sam, no idea why.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited April 2019
    Will the EU election have leaders debates?

    Jezza Vs Chuka Vs Farage would be fun (Theresa hiding behind the sofa as usual) :D
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited April 2019
    GIN1138 said:

    So this EU election will, among thee things, be a Battle Of The Sisters with JRMs sister on the LEAVE side and Boris's sister for REMAIN! :D

    Lincolnshire hard working mother and wife of an Iraq veteran - vs Notting Hill member of the luvvie establishment? Its all in the branding!

    No contest surely?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited April 2019
    GIN1138 said:

    Will the EU election have leaders debates?

    Jezza Vs Chuka Vs Farage would be fun... :D

    Should be one-on-one between Jezza and Farage, as the top two parties in the polling. And a debate between the two of them would be in both men's interests I think.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    brendan16 said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Didn't she try to stand for the LDs once?
    She joined the Lib Dems just before the 2017 GE and Tim Farron expressed support for her to become their London Mayoral candidate in 2020. Siobhan Benita got there ahead of her.

    Why she hasn't stuck with the LDs is odd - as she has more chance of becoming an MEP on their list.

    Of course it will be interesting where all these people are placed on the ChuK list (and also for the other parties) - how many of these 'celebs' are in effect paper candidates (i.e. not top of the list in their region so unlikely to get elected) and are just there for the 5 week campaign/ego trip and how many actually want to be an MEP for 5 years?

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/rachel-johnson-liberal-democrats-mayor-2020-boris-johnson-brexit-a7710601.html
    There's no career to be had in the LibDems....
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    GIN1138 said:

    Will the EU election have leaders debates?

    Jezza Vs Chuka Vs Farage would be fun... :D

    There is no precedent for them. No reasonable basis for including TIG were they to be arranged.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    I wonder if theres a market on which of the Tigger founders will be first to leave the group.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,383
    Danny565 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Will the EU election have leaders debates?

    Jezza Vs Chuka Vs Farage would be fun... :D

    Should be one-on-one between Jezza and Farage, as the top two parties in the polling. And a debate between the two of them would be in both men's interests I think.
    The UK's rival Prime Ministers in waiting.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Sean_F said:

    @Morris Dancer, I've sent you a PM.

    Could you send one to the country too, we're sorely lacking in that regard.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    Scott_P said:
    Go on George, you know you want to - join CUK......
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Scott_P said:
    Thats not remarkable at all, people outside the top two always do that .
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315

    brendan16 said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Didn't she try to stand for the LDs once?
    She joined the Lib Dems just before the 2017 GE and Tim Farron expressed support for her to become their London Mayoral candidate in 2020. Siobhan Benita got there ahead of her.

    Why she hasn't stuck with the LDs is odd - as she has more chance of becoming an MEP on their list.

    Of course it will be interesting where all these people are placed on the ChuK list (and also for the other parties) - how many of these 'celebs' are in effect paper candidates (i.e. not top of the list in their region so unlikely to get elected) and are just there for the 5 week campaign/ego trip and how many actually want to be an MEP for 5 years?

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/rachel-johnson-liberal-democrats-mayor-2020-boris-johnson-brexit-a7710601.html
    There's no career to be had in the LibDems....
    I dare say they will win more MEPs than ChuK as they have a base and infrastructure - if you can top their list in several regions (e.g. London, south east, NW, Scotland and south west) you will probably get elected this time.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Latest on the Greens' willingness to ally with the Tiggers:

    The Green party has dismissed Change UK as “a single-issue party with no coherent policy platform beyond opposing Brexit”. This is from Molly Scott Cato, who is standing for re-election as a Green MEP in the South West.

    "Change UK are a single-issue party with no coherent policy platform beyond opposing Brexit. This is a re-branding exercise for former Conservative and Labour politicians who presided over cuts to public services and the relentless growth in inequality. And we have no idea which group in the European parliament any elected MEPs would join.

    Greens on the other hand are the most electorally successful pro-EU party standing in this election and Green votes are more likely to send pro-EU MEPs to Brussels than votes for any other party. We are standing candidates in all 28 EU nations and polls suggest Greens will increase their number of MEPs."


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2019/apr/23/brexit-latest-news-developments-theresa-may-chairs-cabinet-as-mps-return-to-commons-and-brexit-deadlock-continues-live-news
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited April 2019

    Fwiw the Corbynistas I follow on twitter are getting RSI from tweeting derogatory stuff about ChUK, nada about Nigel and his merry men (& women).

    https://twitter.com/alexvtunzelmann/status/1120643969124306944?s=21
    It’s really quite simple. Brexit Party style National Conservatives aren’t fond of globalists and liberals. The Hard Left is not fond of the economic right. But Labour right now is more reliant on their voters than the Brexit Party coalition.

    The biggest threat to the current Labour coalition is the liberal economic-right remainers being hived off. National Conservatives are viewed as less of an existential issue.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631

    Sean_F said:

    Fenman said:

    Sean_F said:

    https://twitter.com/LaylaMoran/status/1120597390094999553/photo/1

    I suspect pride is going to come before a fall for TIG.

    It's good to see that incompetence and division are not restricted to my own side.
    No, but you are the acknowledged market leaders
    Change UK and the Lib Dems should have been working on joint candidates as soon as the split occurred.
    Would we have called them CUKLD or CHUKLD?
    CUKLD definitely sounds like a new dating app for threesomes.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,683

    Scott_P said:
    Go on George, you know you want to - join CUK......
    I suspect George is more than content being a Churchill figure - on the fringes of Westminster politics for many years before returning later in life to save the nation in its hour of direst peril.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Scott_P said:
    Difference is Brexit Party offers genuine change where-as Change UK is the ultimate status quo offer. A Party created by the elite for the elite....
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,383

    Scott_P said:
    Go on George, you know you want to - join CUK......
    TBH, I'm surprised he hasn't.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293

    Scott_P said:
    Go on George, you know you want to - join CUK......
    I suspect George is more than content being a Churchill figure - on the fringes of Westminster politics for many years before returning later in life to save the nation in its hour of direst peril.
    Satire? ;)
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Danny565 said:

    Latest on the Greens' willingness to ally with the Tiggers:

    The Green party has dismissed Change UK as “a single-issue party with no coherent policy platform beyond opposing Brexit”. This is from Molly Scott Cato, who is standing for re-election as a Green MEP in the South West.

    "Change UK are a single-issue party with no coherent policy platform beyond opposing Brexit. This is a re-branding exercise for former Conservative and Labour politicians who presided over cuts to public services and the relentless growth in inequality. And we have no idea which group in the European parliament any elected MEPs would join.

    Greens on the other hand are the most electorally successful pro-EU party standing in this election and Green votes are more likely to send pro-EU MEPs to Brussels than votes for any other party. We are standing candidates in all 28 EU nations and polls suggest Greens will increase their number of MEPs."


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2019/apr/23/brexit-latest-news-developments-theresa-may-chairs-cabinet-as-mps-return-to-commons-and-brexit-deadlock-continues-live-news

    It was not that long ago that the Green Party of England and Wales was anti-EU.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited April 2019
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Difference is Brexit Party offers genuine change where-as Change UK is the ultimate status quo offer. A Party created by the elite for the elite....
    Surely, given the attitude of a lot of diehard Remainers towards the Leave vote (Gammon, thick, racist, uneducated, poor, old), there is a target market an overtly snobbish and elitist party? People who love talking about how much they're worth and how morally superior they are would love it
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Danny565 said:

    Latest on the Greens' willingness to ally with the Tiggers:

    The Green party has dismissed Change UK as “a single-issue party with no coherent policy platform beyond opposing Brexit”. This is from Molly Scott Cato, who is standing for re-election as a Green MEP in the South West.

    "Change UK are a single-issue party with no coherent policy platform beyond opposing Brexit. This is a re-branding exercise for former Conservative and Labour politicians who presided over cuts to public services and the relentless growth in inequality. And we have no idea which group in the European parliament any elected MEPs would join.

    Greens on the other hand are the most electorally successful pro-EU party standing in this election and Green votes are more likely to send pro-EU MEPs to Brussels than votes for any other party. We are standing candidates in all 28 EU nations and polls suggest Greens will increase their number of MEPs."


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2019/apr/23/brexit-latest-news-developments-theresa-may-chairs-cabinet-as-mps-return-to-commons-and-brexit-deadlock-continues-live-news

    It was not that long ago that the Green Party of England and Wales was anti-EU.
    Mind you, it also wasn't that long ago that Clegg was the only mainstream party leader calling for a referendum on whether to leave the EU (on the basis that it would "lance the boil" and mean that we'd stop talking about Europe).
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,993
    For anyone wanting to play about with vote shares on a national/regional level for EURO 2019 and the resulting seat allocation, here is the tool you've been waiting for (NB - could be seriously addictive for political nerds).

    https://icon.cat/util/elections
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    Chris Davies gets fine & community punishment

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-48022800
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited April 2019
    isam said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Difference is Brexit Party offers genuine change where-as Change UK is the ultimate status quo offer. A Party created by the elite for the elite....
    Surely, given the attitude of a lot of diehard Remainers towards the Leave vote (Gammon, thick, racist, uneducated, poor, old), there is a target market an overtly snobbish and elitist party? People who love talking about how much they're worth and how morally superior they are would love it
    Yes I'm sure there is a market for a Rogerdarmus Party! :D
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,993
    That's one fellow former pupil I won't be voting for.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    glw said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_P said:
    Is the branding supposed to remind me of an Ostalgie shop?
    It's like vintage Adidas.
    It looks like the hamburger menu present in every single mobile app. The one where UX research proves hardly anyone knows what it's meant to do.
    Their website has a hamburger menu on the right, and their confusingly similar logo on the left. A UX mistake in my book.
    I suspect the hamburger menu logo started life as a Tigger, before having every hint of personality removed from it.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited April 2019
    isam said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Difference is Brexit Party offers genuine change where-as Change UK is the ultimate status quo offer. A Party created by the elite for the elite....
    Surely, given the attitude of a lot of diehard Remainers towards the Leave vote (Gammon, thick, racist, uneducated, poor, old), there is a target market an overtly snobbish and elitist party? People who love talking about how much they're worth and how morally superior they are would love it
    Trouble is there’s a significant overlap in that respect with Labour and the Lib Dems.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293

    Chris Davies gets fine & community punishment

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-48022800

    Should be an interesting by election... First Lib-Dem GAIN for a few years?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,714
    isam said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Difference is Brexit Party offers genuine change where-as Change UK is the ultimate status quo offer. A Party created by the elite for the elite....
    Surely, given the attitude of a lot of diehard Remainers towards the Leave vote (Gammon, thick, racist, uneducated, poor, old), there is a target market an overtly snobbish and elitist party? People who love talking about how much they're worth and how morally superior they are would love it
    You should try reversing that to see the attitude diehard leavers have towards remainers.

    They say the same sorts of things ...
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Rocket Ronnie falls at the first fence
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    Scott_P said:
    "Some people are calling it Donald-Day..."
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631

    Chris Davies gets fine & community punishment

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-48022800

    That’s going to be another recall petition, as it’s expenses-related.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
    isam said:

    Rocket Ronnie falls at the first fence

    you have to hand it to Cahill he kept his nerve the whole way through
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    Rocket Ronnie falls at the first fence

    you have to hand it to Cahill he kept his nerve the whole way through
    I only saw the last frame, but that was a great clearance to win it. To get on the last red was a brilliant shot.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited April 2019
    Scott_P said:
    Could almost be timed as a distraction for the media and MPs after the EU elections?
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited April 2019
    I see world No 1 Ronnie O Sullivan has just been knocked out in round 1 of the World Snooker championships - by the first ever amateur to make the main draw at the Crucible. Quite a major shock.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/snooker/47310951
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    GIN1138 said:

    Difference is Brexit Party offers genuine change

    Genuine change from 7 times failed candidate Nigel Fucking Farage...

    These guys offered to "Take Back Control"

    What the fuck happened to that?

    https://twitter.com/brianspanner1/status/746488316510482433
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Chris Davies gets fine & community punishment

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-48022800

    Well at least the recall process can start now.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    GIN1138 said:

    Could almost be timed as a distraction for the media and MPs after the EU elections?

    Could be Tezza's last official act...
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Difference is Brexit Party offers genuine change where-as Change UK is the ultimate status quo offer. A Party created by the elite for the elite....
    Surely, given the attitude of a lot of diehard Remainers towards the Leave vote (Gammon, thick, racist, uneducated, poor, old), there is a target market an overtly snobbish and elitist party? People who love talking about how much they're worth and how morally superior they are would love it
    You should try reversing that to see the attitude diehard leavers have towards remainers.

    They say the same sorts of things ...
    Yes, but the Leave parties say what their supporters think. Chuka used to, but I doubt he will now.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Scott_P said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Difference is Brexit Party offers genuine change

    Genuine change from 7 times failed candidate Nigel Fucking Farage...

    These guys offered to "Take Back Control"

    What the fuck happened to that?

    https://twitter.com/brianspanner1/status/746488316510482433
    That's still as funny as the first time you posted it!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Scott_P said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Difference is Brexit Party offers genuine change

    Genuine change from 7 times failed candidate Nigel Fucking Farage...

    These guys offered to "Take Back Control"

    What the fuck happened to that?

    https://twitter.com/brianspanner1/status/746488316510482433

    What's with all the F-Bombs from you these days?

    You come across as very undignified just lately...
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited April 2019
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    edited April 2019
    brendan16 said:

    I see world No 1 Ronnie O Sullivan has just been knocked out in round 1 of the World Snooker championships - by the first ever amateur to make the main draw at the Crucible. Quite a major shock.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/snooker/47310951

    50/1 on shot fails. Crucible does strange things to folk. Some go to pieces, as my tip did. Others play the game of their lives, against an admittedly out of sorts Ronnie.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,536
    Charles said:



    It's a subtle balance, isn't it? I really like Eritrean food and I'd be quite pleased to get a text saying "You are just 500 metres from an Eritrean restaurant at High Road 43." Similarly I don't mind getting a moderate amount of spam on computer games as I'm interested in what's coming out. But personalising is intrusive in a very American way, like the staff in restaurants who say ,"Hi, I'm Cindy, and I'm gonna make sure you have a great time today!" It's the false chumminess that I react against, not the relevant information.

    Oh, and more relevantly to here, I hate those political letters that are mock-personalised. "Nick, it's really important to vote next Thursday. We know you want to stop the Tories, Nick, and this is your chance to do it." Do they think we're idiots that we don't know about mail merge?
    How many of those letters have you sent in your career, Nick?
    None, so far as I can remember. I was always averse to using precooked letters from HQ.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,006
    edited April 2019

    Scott_P said:
    "Some people are calling it Donald-Day..."
    An outside chance Trump had relatives fighting on the German side.
    A wonderful opportunity to heal the wounds of history by laying wreaths for the dead of both sides, let's just hope any Trump dead aren't in the SS section of the cemetery.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    Danny565 said:

    She's so good

    Her analysis of the JAMs before they were called JAMs is excellent.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=akVL7QY0S8A
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,714
    isam said:

    isam said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Difference is Brexit Party offers genuine change where-as Change UK is the ultimate status quo offer. A Party created by the elite for the elite....
    Surely, given the attitude of a lot of diehard Remainers towards the Leave vote (Gammon, thick, racist, uneducated, poor, old), there is a target market an overtly snobbish and elitist party? People who love talking about how much they're worth and how morally superior they are would love it
    You should try reversing that to see the attitude diehard leavers have towards remainers.

    They say the same sorts of things ...
    Yes, but the Leave parties say what their supporters think. Chuka used to, but I doubt he will now.
    I think you are slightly biased when you say that. :)
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Fwiw the Corbynistas I follow on twitter are getting RSI from tweeting derogatory stuff about ChUK, nada about Nigel and his merry men (& women).

    https://twitter.com/alexvtunzelmann/status/1120643969124306944?s=21
    I am really struggling to understand the new political fascination with ex-mil types. As if it qualifies you for anything but supplying a rich vein of stories that start, "So there I was..."

    That ex-bootie has bound to have wanked a dog off or similar RM jape at some point...
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,039
    Scott_P said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Could almost be timed as a distraction for the media and MPs after the EU elections?

    Could be Tezza's last official act...
    Or Jezza's first...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    The no-change party hace come along at completely the wrong time. While i personally dont think their apparently general philosophy is wrong, that isnt isnt the public want. They want change hence corbyn, trump, brexit and as technology starts to eat up more middle.class jobs that will only spread until somebody proposes sensible change.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    isam said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Difference is Brexit Party offers genuine change where-as Change UK is the ultimate status quo offer. A Party created by the elite for the elite....
    Surely, given the attitude of a lot of diehard Remainers towards the Leave vote (Gammon, thick, racist, uneducated, poor, old), there is a target market an overtly snobbish and elitist party? People who love talking about how much they're worth and how morally superior they are would love it
    You should try reversing that to see the attitude diehard leavers have towards remainers.

    They say the same sorts of things ...
    Yes, but the Leave parties say what their supporters think. Chuka used to, but I doubt he will now.
    I think you are slightly biased when you say that. :)
    To be fair, Lammy calls us Nazi's, Cameron Racists etc so maybe they do reflect their supporters, I take it back.

  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    Danny565 said:
    Presumably thats a wealth tax. Which would lead to people having capital flowing out of the US.

    Wealth Taxes are impossible unless you have capital controls.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    Danny565 said:

    She's so good:

    /twitter.com/ewarren/status/1120498568622739459

    Her polling doesnt suggest people agree with you.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,039
    Dura_Ace said:

    Fwiw the Corbynistas I follow on twitter are getting RSI from tweeting derogatory stuff about ChUK, nada about Nigel and his merry men (& women).

    https://twitter.com/alexvtunzelmann/status/1120643969124306944?s=21
    I am really struggling to understand the new political fascination with ex-mil types. As if it qualifies you for anything but supplying a rich vein of stories that start, "So there I was..."

    That ex-bootie has bound to have wanked a dog off or similar RM jape at some point...
    Your knowledge of service life provides a unique enrichment to PB threads.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,714
    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Difference is Brexit Party offers genuine change where-as Change UK is the ultimate status quo offer. A Party created by the elite for the elite....
    Surely, given the attitude of a lot of diehard Remainers towards the Leave vote (Gammon, thick, racist, uneducated, poor, old), there is a target market an overtly snobbish and elitist party? People who love talking about how much they're worth and how morally superior they are would love it
    You should try reversing that to see the attitude diehard leavers have towards remainers.

    They say the same sorts of things ...
    Yes, but the Leave parties say what their supporters think. Chuka used to, but I doubt he will now.
    I think you are slightly biased when you say that. :)
    To be fair, Lammy calls us Nazi's, Cameron Racists etc so maybe they do reflect their supporters, I take it back.
    No, I see it the other way: it's ridiculous to say that any party (of any size) says what their supporters think. For one thing parties are disparate bodies, often saying differing things to differing constituencies; the other is that the constituencies who vote for them can be radically different.

    It's also a rather dangerous road to go down.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    edited April 2019

    Danny565 said:
    Presumably thats a wealth tax. Which would lead to people having capital flowing out of the US.

    Wealth Taxes are impossible unless you have capital controls.
    Heres more detail (from a pro wealth tax resource)

    https://www.vox.com/videos/2019/3/5/18249732/wealth-tax-better-way-rich
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Difference is Brexit Party offers genuine change where-as Change UK is the ultimate status quo offer. A Party created by the elite for the elite....
    Surely, given the attitude of a lot of diehard Remainers towards the Leave vote (Gammon, thick, racist, uneducated, poor, old), there is a target market an overtly snobbish and elitist party? People who love talking about how much they're worth and how morally superior they are would love it
    You should try reversing that to see the attitude diehard leavers have towards remainers.

    They say the same sorts of things ...
    Yes, but the Leave parties say what their supporters think. Chuka used to, but I doubt he will now.
    I think you are slightly biased when you say that. :)
    To be fair, Lammy calls us Nazi's, Cameron Racists etc so maybe they do reflect their supporters, I take it back.
    No, I see it the other way: it's ridiculous to say that any party (of any size) says what their supporters think. For one thing parties are disparate bodies, often saying differing things to differing constituencies; the other is that the constituencies who vote for them can be radically different.

    It's also a rather dangerous road to go down.
    ooh!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    Dura_Ace said:

    Fwiw the Corbynistas I follow on twitter are getting RSI from tweeting derogatory stuff about ChUK, nada about Nigel and his merry men (& women).

    https://twitter.com/alexvtunzelmann/status/1120643969124306944?s=21
    I am really struggling to understand the new political fascination with ex-mil types. As if it qualifies you for anything but supplying a rich vein of stories that start, "So there I was..."

    That ex-bootie has bound to have wanked a dog off or similar RM jape at some point...
    I am guessing that people think that as these people were willing to put their lives on the line for their country their moral compass and motivation for public office goes beyond simply what is it in for them.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Dura_Ace said:

    Fwiw the Corbynistas I follow on twitter are getting RSI from tweeting derogatory stuff about ChUK, nada about Nigel and his merry men (& women).

    https://twitter.com/alexvtunzelmann/status/1120643969124306944?s=21
    I am really struggling to understand the new political fascination with ex-mil types. As if it qualifies you for anything but supplying a rich vein of stories that start, "So there I was..."

    That ex-bootie has bound to have wanked a dog off or similar RM jape at some point...
    As opposed to Cameron sticking a pig’s head...
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    brendan16 said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Didn't she try to stand for the LDs once?
    She joined the Lib Dems just before the 2017 GE and Tim Farron expressed support for her to become their London Mayoral candidate in 2020. Siobhan Benita got there ahead of her.

    Why she hasn't stuck with the LDs is odd - as she has more chance of becoming an MEP on their list.

    Of course it will be interesting where all these people are placed on the ChuK list (and also for the other parties) - how many of these 'celebs' are in effect paper candidates (i.e. not top of the list in their region so unlikely to get elected) and are just there for the 5 week campaign/ego trip and how many actually want to be an MEP for 5 years?

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/rachel-johnson-liberal-democrats-mayor-2020-boris-johnson-brexit-a7710601.html
    This gets more headlines and less risk of winning than the LDs
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591

    Danny565 said:
    Presumably thats a wealth tax. Which would lead to people having capital flowing out of the US.

    Wealth Taxes are impossible unless you have capital controls.
    Not if you levy on their land and property. Difficult to move that offshore.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,006

    Dura_Ace said:

    Fwiw the Corbynistas I follow on twitter are getting RSI from tweeting derogatory stuff about ChUK, nada about Nigel and his merry men (& women).

    https://twitter.com/alexvtunzelmann/status/1120643969124306944?s=21
    I am really struggling to understand the new political fascination with ex-mil types. As if it qualifies you for anything but supplying a rich vein of stories that start, "So there I was..."

    That ex-bootie has bound to have wanked a dog off or similar RM jape at some point...
    I am guessing that people think that as these people were willing to put their lives on the line for their country their moral compass and motivation for public office goes beyond simply what is it in for them.
    Alternatively political apparatchiks hope voters will think as these people were willing to put their lives on the line for their country their moral compass and motivation for public office goes beyond simply what is it in for them.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    Danny565 said:
    Presumably thats a wealth tax. Which would lead to people having capital flowing out of the US.

    Wealth Taxes are impossible unless you have capital controls.
    The US already taxes the world-wide income of its citizens no matter where they reside. The IRS is very good at ferreting out overseas bank accounts and other assets. The biggest collateral damage from a wealth tax is likely to be ex-pat Americans as it would probably end up with FATCA on steroids with no overseas bank wanting to touch Americans, even those resident locally, with a bargepole.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    edited April 2019
    Scott_P said:
    Lewis at 10/1 seems like good value at this point, he’s in pole position to take a sixth title this year.

    Raheem Sterling’s price will go out if MU beat MC on Wednesday night, cheered on by millions of his old club’s fans.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    Dura_Ace said:

    Fwiw the Corbynistas I follow on twitter are getting RSI from tweeting derogatory stuff about ChUK, nada about Nigel and his merry men (& women).

    https://twitter.com/alexvtunzelmann/status/1120643969124306944?s=21
    I am really struggling to understand the new political fascination with ex-mil types. As if it qualifies you for anything but supplying a rich vein of stories that start, "So there I was..."

    That ex-bootie has bound to have wanked a dog off or similar RM jape at some point...
    Your knowledge of service life provides a unique enrichment to PB threads.
    I don’t think anyone can argue with that!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    Dura_Ace said:

    Fwiw the Corbynistas I follow on twitter are getting RSI from tweeting derogatory stuff about ChUK, nada about Nigel and his merry men (& women).

    https://twitter.com/alexvtunzelmann/status/1120643969124306944?s=21
    I am really struggling to understand the new political fascination with ex-mil types. As if it qualifies you for anything but supplying a rich vein of stories that start, "So there I was..."

    That ex-bootie has bound to have wanked a dog off or similar RM jape at some point...
    Isabel Oakeshott described it as “a real coup”. Hopefully not that real...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:
    Lewis at 10/1 seems like good value at this point, he’s in pole position to take a sixth title this year.

    Raheem Sterling’s price will go out if MU beat MC on Wednesday night, cheered on by millions of his old club’s fans.
    Have i missed why dina asher-smith is such a short price?
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1120655728069550080

    Plus Gavin Esler lead in London.

    NW, NE and SE lead candidates are pretty unimpressive to be honest.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    rpjs said:

    Danny565 said:
    Presumably thats a wealth tax. Which would lead to people having capital flowing out of the US.

    Wealth Taxes are impossible unless you have capital controls.
    The US already taxes the world-wide income of its citizens no matter where they reside. The IRS is very good at ferreting out overseas bank accounts and other assets. The biggest collateral damage from a wealth tax is likely to be ex-pat Americans as it would probably end up with FATCA on steroids with no overseas bank wanting to touch Americans, even those resident locally, with a bargepole.
    Americans in my part of the world ask for their bonuses and dividends in cash, thanks to the IRS. This is easy when there’s no personal income tax to deduct. Wealth taxes will have a whole pile of unintended consequences, and probably not raise half as much as their proponents think they will.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677



    Your knowledge of service life provides a unique enrichment to PB threads.

    So there I was in Baghdad while two fat gingers tried to fix a C130 for a flight back to Basra. I was waiting in Saddam Hussein International Airport with two scholars from the Royal Marines. One says to the other, "Do you want a fuckin Burger King?" His mate grunts. The first bootie disappears for quite a while and then returns with a Burger King bag. Bootie II digs into the bag and comes out with the burger box. Hilarity ensues when it transpires his mate has jettisoned the Whopper and shit in the box.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Difference is Brexit Party offers genuine change

    Genuine change from 7 times failed candidate Nigel Fucking Farage...

    These guys offered to "Take Back Control"

    What the fuck happened to that?

    https://twitter.com/brianspanner1/status/746488316510482433

    What's with all the F-Bombs from you these days?

    You come across as very undignified just lately...
    Tories are circling the drain , especially in Scotland.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Chris Davies gets fine & community punishment

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-48022800

    Having read the details in that article why didn’t he just submit the full invoice to both pots and make a partial claim against it?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:
    Lewis at 10/1 seems like good value at this point, he’s in pole position to take a sixth title this year.

    Raheem Sterling’s price will go out if MU beat MC on Wednesday night, cheered on by millions of his old club’s fans.
    Have i missed why dina asher-smith is such a short price?
    Ranked world #1 in her event going into the world championships this summer. No, me neither, not until she has the gold medal round her neck anyway.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    Off topic, a question for the PB crowd: any recommendations for reasonably priced hotels in central NY - somewhere around the 7th Ave/52nd street area or within easy walking distance?

    Thanks.

    VM is fine, to avoid clogging up the thread.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239

    Danny565 said:

    She's so good

    Her analysis of the JAMs before they were called JAMs is excellent.
    You mean when they were called the KLF?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Danny565 said:
    2% annual wealth tax is pretty high by international standards
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Charles said:

    Danny565 said:
    2% annual wealth tax is pretty high by international standards
    Presumably Jezza will try the same here?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Danny565 said:
    Presumably thats a wealth tax. Which would lead to people having capital flowing out of the US.

    Wealth Taxes are impossible unless you have capital controls.
    Not if you levy on their land and property. Difficult to move that offshore.
    Yes but raises a fraction of the amount
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    In ChUK lists I see

    2 former labour MPs: Roger Casale (Wimbledon, 1997-2015) and Jon Owen Jones (Cardiff Central, 1992-2015)
    2 former Labour PPCs: Kate Godfrey (Stafford 2015, but I think she has already defected to LD a few years ago) and Victoria Groulef
    1 former Labour MEP: Carole Tongue (80s and 90s)

    1 former LD MEP: Diana Wallis (Yorkshire)

    2 former Con MPs: Neil Carmichael (Stroud, 2005-15) and Stephen Dorrell (Loughborough/Charnwood 1979-2015)

    1 sitting Con MEP: Richard Ashworth
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited April 2019

    Dura_Ace said:

    Fwiw the Corbynistas I follow on twitter are getting RSI from tweeting derogatory stuff about ChUK, nada about Nigel and his merry men (& women).

    https://twitter.com/alexvtunzelmann/status/1120643969124306944?s=21
    I am really struggling to understand the new political fascination with ex-mil types. As if it qualifies you for anything but supplying a rich vein of stories that start, "So there I was..."

    That ex-bootie has bound to have wanked a dog off or similar RM jape at some point...
    Isabel Oakeshott described it as “a real coup”. Hopefully not that real...
    Well you can see the difference in candidate offering - or at least who the BP and Chuk are promoting:

    libertarian ex Revolutionary communist and free speech campaigner, NHS nurse and charity worker who came to this country as an immigrant from Malaysia, a charity director, an Asian academic, an army veteran who was awarded a medal for gallantry turned conservationist, two entrepeneurs, an expert on the fishing industry and a former director general of the British chamber of commerce. Not forgetting of course Lincolnshire house wife and mum married to an Iraq war veteran!

    vs

    two ex Tory MPs, a former BBC news journalist and Notting Hill remainer who became well know mainly due to her high profile brother and dad.

    No contest really!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rpjs said:

    Danny565 said:
    Presumably thats a wealth tax. Which would lead to people having capital flowing out of the US.

    Wealth Taxes are impossible unless you have capital controls.
    The US already taxes the world-wide income of its citizens no matter where they reside. The IRS is very good at ferreting out overseas bank accounts and other assets. The biggest collateral damage from a wealth tax is likely to be ex-pat Americans as it would probably end up with FATCA on steroids with no overseas bank wanting to touch Americans, even those resident locally, with a bargepole.
    I know a very discerning bank that is delighted to work with Americans in the UK
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    edited April 2019
    Charles said:

    Danny565 said:
    2% annual wealth tax is pretty high by international standards
    She’s also careful to avoid mentioning that it would need to be levied annually. So over 20 years it would expropriate more than half of someone’s wealth. Obviously that definitely won’t result in any changes in behaviour whatsoever..
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    The chances of ChangeUK to get a seat are London and South East, right?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    Sandpit said:

    Charles said:

    Danny565 said:
    2% annual wealth tax is pretty high by international standards
    She’s also careful to avoid mentioning that it would need to be levied annually. So over 20 years it would expropriate more than half of someone’s wealth.
    Only if that wealth did not appropriate any value.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,006
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:
    Lewis at 10/1 seems like good value at this point, he’s in pole position to take a sixth title this year.

    Raheem Sterling’s price will go out if MU beat MC on Wednesday night, cheered on by millions of his old club’s fans.

    I know he won it in 2014 but doesn't Hamilton always underperform at SPOTY unless it's generally a boring year for UK sport? I fully accept that he's a fantastic driver but the worst fashion sense in sport apart, there seems to be a curious hole where a personality should be.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    I'm quite interested in the tone of the Mail Online/Daily Mail towards The Brexit Party - which so far seems fairly supportive. Dacre gave oxygen to Farage, but would happily rip UKIP apart at elections to protect the Tory vote. Grieg is at least a soft Brexit supporter (if not a remainer) yet the Brexit Party (who do seem well organised and quite refreshing to many) are getting some very positive press.

    I wonder if The Mail are building them up to tear them down, if Grieg ( a good friend of George Osborne) hates May so much he will support whoever it takes to oust her, or maybe he just sees The BP as a positive step in the realignment of politics.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,006
    brendan16 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Fwiw the Corbynistas I follow on twitter are getting RSI from tweeting derogatory stuff about ChUK, nada about Nigel and his merry men (& women).

    https://twitter.com/alexvtunzelmann/status/1120643969124306944?s=21
    I am really struggling to understand the new political fascination with ex-mil types. As if it qualifies you for anything but supplying a rich vein of stories that start, "So there I was..."

    That ex-bootie has bound to have wanked a dog off or similar RM jape at some point...
    Isabel Oakeshott described it as “a real coup”. Hopefully not that real...
    Well you can see the difference in candidate offering - or at least who the BP and Chuk are promoting:

    libertarian ex Revolutionary communist and free speech campaigner, NHS nurse and charity worker who came to this country as an immigrant from Malaysia, a charity director, an Asian academic, an army veteran who was awarded a medal for gallantry turned conservationist, two entrepeneurs, an expert on the fishing industry and a former director general of the British chamber of commerce. Not forgetting of course Lincolnshire house wife and mum married to an Iraq war veteran!

    vs

    two ex Tory MPs, a former BBC news journalist and Notting Hill remainer who became well know mainly due to her high profile brother and dad.

    Jeezo, you and BP should get a room.
This discussion has been closed.