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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Is it Bye-bye to by-elections?
This is a two-part series bringing to your attention the decline of the humble Westminster by-election over the last 100 years. In Part 1, I will discuss how the reasons for triggering by-elections have changed since 1918. In Part 2, I will discuss in more detail the phenomenon (or lack) of MPs resigning and re-contesting their seats over principle or when they change party allegiance.
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We need fewer career politicians and more people with experience of life - as the latter will have done proper jobs and be older they might be more likely to die in office thus creating more by election opportunities?
Or we pass a new law saying if you leave your party you must fight a by election?
Looks like we've hit a bit of a floor. The grim reaper is ever vigilant.
To my mind all by-elections are good thing.
Edit - also of course there were 4 by-elections in 1986 that were uncontested (leaving aside a joke candidate pretending to be the Irish Minister for Foreign Affairs).
No idea as to accuracy and was second hand so take it for what it’s worth
Rumour is Corbyn has cancer - assuming a near term election he will front campaign but McDonnell will take over after election. Longer term election who knows?
Or wouldn't that suit the narrative - that in reality it wasn't the suffragettes breaking windows in London that got women the vote but the social change and pressure brought about by WWI (i.e. 1 million young men dying in the trenches and millions of working class women doing work in factories and mines that men had done before)?
This is a result of the UK being the first to construct passenger railways on a large scale, with the earliest carriages being based on stagecoach designs, and so were stagecoach-sized (in height and width at least). This meant the positioning of lineside structures and so the loading gauge closely followed the vehicle sizes. Europe, the US and other places learnt from this and started with larger loading gauges, many of which are big enough for true double-deck vehicles (although even then some like the Long Island RR bi-levels feel somewhat cramped on the top deck).
HS2, like HS1 before it, is built to the full UIC (Union Internationale des Chemins de Fer) loading gauge and will support full double-deck cars like the TGV “duplexes”. There are also vague plans to increase the loading gauge on some of the SW London commuter routes, though I suspect what will actually be practical to do there will be so constrained that any d-d cars on those routes will feel pretty cramped.
And, yes, we should offer it too. Stuff those communities who would threaten the peace if she were allowed in.
How much aid do we give this ghastly country every year? Why don’t we bloody well use that soft power to protest about the appalling way Christians are treated there? There have been a number of attacks on churches and their congregations there as well.
That's also why COs were disenfranchised, of course, something DeGroot called 'an act of conspicuous pique.'
1. Not nice for Corbyn.
2. McDonnell much more dangerous than Corbyn.
3. Sick of having PMs foisted on us by small numbers of the party faithful. First, Brown then May. Enough.
Thanks.
The kid has gone to pieces on the big stage...won't see that tenner again.
https://twitter.com/BetoORourke/status/1119992147871186945
(and thanks to Mike and TSE for publishing!)
https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQBHXuTkvWvuSXoSDhgf7MxVXe6ssVawZulxZFu0dSSRLCnajIM-g
The closeness of the last three elections no doubt has something to do with the decline in optional by-elections too. Each MP makes a difference to the Parliamentary maths.
Apparently two of his top staff have quit in recent days.
Hmmm, just a bit off?
Quel surprise.
Other contested Ministerial contests that were contested were all six in 1920, Bewdley as well as Bedford in 1921, and Bury St Edmunds in 1925, and East Renfrewshire in 1926 - the last ever ministerial by-election.
So that makes 12 of the 20 from 1919-1926.
Australian have a loading gauge of 3.2m wide and 3.48m high on lines that have double decker trains.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loading_gauge
Reason HS2 is being developed is because when all the other options to increase have been considered it is the most sensible choice.
My recollection from service as a Trustee for the emergency fund for former MPs was that pensions used to be almost non-existent in the old days (going back to the 1950s) - I remember the widow of a Prime Minister from that period applying to us for help to have a broken window repaired, and reporting her income and savings as virtually zero apart from the national pension. We felt that however harshly people judged politicians, they would be rather shocked at this, and we did help her. I'm not sure when the pensions became substantial.
I'm sure that general longevity plays a part, and of course in a hung Parliament MPs on both sides are urged not to stand down on a whim. The sharp changes in political profile in both major parties have also led to more retirements when MPs decide they don't much like the new regime and alternative careers are a less painful option than a publikc defection.
That's less of an issue with HS2. However that will have issues with the classic-compatible trains that go on the rest of the network to extend their journeys.
The Southern Region is genuinely difficult, and the WCML is full - hence HS2. But on the rest of the network, the answer to capacity issues is simple: run longer trains. All modern trains have Selective Door Opening so platform lengths shouldn’t be an issue.
It’s the franchising system’s hostility to investment that makes this difficult. Both CrossCountry and Arriva Trains Wales would be in a much better position had they each lengthened their trains 10 years ago, but both were let to Arriva on no-investment contracts. The situation right now is brighter: Northern, TfW, TPE, WMT, Greater Anglia and EMR have all been let on the basis of significant fleet replacement. But as industry watchers like Roger Ford will tell you, feast-to-famine is no way to run a railway.
But, people still voted for "him"! 6,000 or so, across the four seats he "contested"!
*gets coat*
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1119963106954874882
Blow soft o'er Ceylon's isle;
Though every prospect pleases,
And only man is vile?
* yes I know that’s legally not the case but seemed the simplest way to convey the concept
Additionally of Corbyn has just won an election I’d expect he’d have a massive amount of influence
A lorra, lorra laughs ahead of us.
*innocent face*
Another problem with split-level double-deck coaches like that is that the stairs mean wheelchair users and other mobility-impaired passengers can’t access those decks. Those sort of cars usually have a single-deck area at either end where such passengers can go, but all put together you’re not really getting anything like twice the capacity of a singe-level car, maybe 50% extra at best.
huh
At least this one is a professional.
Should I be worried that I find it interesting?
It’s like the U.K. had directly elected Paul Eddington to replace Margaret Thatcher.
(It gets a little worse than that, as there are different 'forms' of loading gauge. The faster a train goes, the more a train will sway and be affected by cant and dynamic forces. Therefore you need to take kinematics into account - especially with platform edges.)
I am sure the trains are incredibly well designed, but with 60cm less in the UK and a requirement to put the engine somewhere (normally under the floor) reality is you are not going to comfortably travel on double decker trains on the WCML as a way of creating extra capacity.
Funnily enough before HS2 was a thing options like this were considered and disregarded for this very reason.
Kudos to the first politician who dares to suggest serious planning reform for major infrastructure projects. HS2, HS3 and two new runways at LHR all need to have been opened yesterday.
To all the greenies opposed to development, we currently have thousands of smelly lorries on motorways and hundreds of planes flying round in circles over London, contributing massively to pollution and greenhouse gas emissions.