Right now he looks like the real deal. I’ve decided not to bet against him at anything approaching current odds. He’s going to shorten a lot more yet, I think.
Personally if Buttigieg comes across as a bit of a Blairite, well, I could get behind that personally.
Is Blairism really going to win over Democratic primary voters whose poster girl is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at the moment, or indeed shift the swing voters in the rustbelt away from Trump? Indeed in policy terms at least that would suggest Buttigieg is Hillary 2.0
imho Biden is the one who can beat Trump. No one else comes close.
But Buttigieg is very exciting and a class act. I am betting he will be Dem nominee. At very least I will be able to lay off after he wipes the floor in the first debate.
Biden won't stand. Sanders will flop.
Which makes it all very exciting.
Buttigieg is the blank slate onto which people will project their hopes. That is why he might well win the nomination.
And the General? I think that'll mostly be a consequence of how the US economy is doing. Right now, the indicators are all pointing to weakening demand. If that continues, then Biden or Buttigieg or Harris or whoever will probably win - if Trump isn't delivering prosperity, then he simply won't get that much support.
And the corollary is that if the economy turns round and the US has 3+% GDP growth next year, then it probably doesn't matter who the Democrats pick.
Seems unlikely the US economy will be 3% next year to me.
Suppose there is a finalisation of the Brexit process in a way that is economically optimal. The tsunami of pent-up demand and investment that Hammond has promised actually exists, materialises and drives the UK economy forward, infecting Wall Street with renewed optimism and creating a last hurrah for the world economy before the next major downturn.
It could be sorted tomorrow. Our MPs have been hapless but the not choosing something so an extension must occur is, haphazardly, what most of them wanted.
Another year at least. Genuinely depressing stuff. Theres nothing about this that requires uncertainty like that.
I just read a rather depressing article by Tim Stanley. He suggests the problem is that MPs' ability to take decisions has simply atrophied, after years of outsourcing legislating to Brussels.
I was fully expecting MPs of all stripes embracing the return of sovereignty - because everyone wants power, right?
That they haven't makes me think that few are willing to accept the full responsibility of that sovereign power. Quite a sad realisation for someone interested in politics.
Was it Caroline Lucas who said it would be great if we can remain so that Parliament can get back to debating plastic bags and lightbulbs?
We are not what we were.
I don't think we were what we were, even then. I have gone off on one frequently about the poor qualities of MPs, but I can't help thinking they always were like this. @Charles said the other day that the problem is the gradual arrogation of executive power by the legislature, and I think he's right.
But hasn't power been slipping away from parliament and towards the executive using statutory instruments?
Um, no?
[Genuinely: have you got the cart before the horse there?]
I'm talking generally, rather than as regards Brexit. (See the David Allen Green tweets.)
Right now he looks like the real deal. I’ve decided not to bet against him at anything approaching current odds. He’s going to shorten a lot more yet, I think.
Personally if Buttigieg comes across as a bit of a Blairite, well, I could get behind that personally.
Is Blairism really going to win over Democratic primary voters whose poster girl is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at the moment, or indeed shift the swing voters in the rustbelt away from Trump? Indeed in policy terms at least that would suggest Buttigieg is Hillary 2.0
imho Biden is the one who can beat Trump. No one else comes close.
But Buttigieg is very exciting and a class act. I am betting he will be Dem nominee. At very least I will be able to lay off after he wipes the floor in the first debate.
Biden I agree is the best Democratic hope to beat Trump even now.
Buttigieg I think will be a Democratic John Kasich, a good bet for the general maybe but not able to win the nomination in such polarised times, Sanders is still the likeliest choice there
I agree as well. Biden is the only candidate who can win back post-industrial states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, etc. A "Woke" candidate would tank in those places.
Mayor Pete is the mayor of a (previously) failing industrial city in Indiana - I think it's a mistake to think he can't appeal to the rust belt.
Mayor Pete is the Mayor of a city which has voted for a Democratic Mayor ever since 1972, hardly typical of the rustbelt
Well, Wisconsin voted pretty consistently Democrat until Donald Trump won it. Next door Minnesota even voted for Walter Mondale and Trump nearly won it.
Question for you; how many of the previous Mayors won reelection with more than 80% of the vote.
Reagan won Wisconsin twice, as you say even Trump lost Minnesota though Nixon won it in 1972.
I have no clue how many Mayors won more than 80% but I expect it is a high number
Nixon defeated Humphrey in Wisconsin in the close 1968 election too.
It could be sorted tomorrow. Our MPs have been hapless but the not choosing something so an extension must occur is, haphazardly, what most of them wanted.
Another year at least. Genuinely depressing stuff. Theres nothing about this that requires uncertainty like that.
Yes, genuinely depressing, and the uncertainty that such a long extension will cause could well end up doing the UK real economic harm as well as further damaging the voters trust in this dysfunctional Parliament.
I still find it incredible that so many MPs in Parliament appear to be so completely relaxed with the possibility of such a long Article 50 extension rather than voting for May's Withdrawal Agreement? And with the strong possibility of difficult and humiliating conditions attached by EU while claiming to be trying to do what is right for their constituents or the UK economy? That claim from many of them is already hanging by a shoogle peg, especially if May is pushed out sooner rather than later.
I just wonder at what stage those MPs are going to really regret not passing May's Withdrawal Agreement at the last minute when they had the opportunity, instead making the mistake of focusing on taking control of Parliament and simple using that power to stop a No Deal while having no clear plan they could unite around in place of May's withdrawal agreement. It would be ironic if after spending two years making sure that May owned Brexit and its mistakes, they then proved that she was the only one who did have a feasible compromise plan that delivered a managed Brexit.
Now beginning to wonder if the speech given by May which ruffled so many MPs and journalists feathers a few weeks ago, was in fact the start of a very clear strategy by May' team to prepare the necessary groundwork for a snap GE in the event she remained PM and she is unable to get conditions of a bad lengthy Article 50 extension past her party. The reach out to Corbyn and Labour for talks and the sofa address to the nation on Sunday just increased that suspicion. The Westminster party may not want a GE, and certainly not one while still being led by May. But I just don't see the Parliamentary arithmetic allowing for a quick Leadership contest with the clock ticking down to a decision being required in days? To me, a snap GE now with May as leader and called to try to get past this Parliamentary Brexit deadlock would be less toxic for the Conservative party than one later under a new Leader after the Government had been forced into a humiliatingly lengthy extension.
It could be sorted tomorrow. Our MPs have been hapless but the not choosing something so an extension must occur is, haphazardly, what most of them wanted.
Another year at least. Genuinely depressing stuff. Theres nothing about this that requires uncertainty like that.
Yes, genuinely depressing, and the uncertainty that such a long extension will cause could well end up doing the UK real economic harm as well as further damaging the voters trust in this dysfunctional Parliament.
I still find it incredible that so many MPs in Parliament appear to be so completely relaxed with the possibility of such a long Article 50 extension rather than voting for May's Withdrawal Agreement? And with the strong possibility of difficult and humiliating conditions attached by EU while claiming to be trying to do what is right for their constituents or the UK economy? That claim from many of them is already hanging by a shoogle peg, especially if May is pushed out sooner rather than later.
I just wonder at what stage those MPs are going to really regret not passing May's Withdrawal Agreement at the last minute when they had the opportunity, instead making the mistake of focusing on taking control of Parliament and simple using that power to stop a No Deal while having no clear plan they could unite around in place of May's withdrawal agreement. It would be ironic if after spending two years making sure that May owned Brexit and its mistakes, they then proved that she was the only one who did have a feasible compromise plan that delivered a managed Brexit.
Now beginning to wonder if the speech given by May which ruffled so many MPs and journalists feathers a few weeks ago, was in fact the start of a very clear strategy by May' team to prepare the necessary groundwork for a snap GE in the event she remained PM and she is unable to get conditions of a bad lengthy Article 50 extension past her party. The reach out to Corbyn and Labour for talks and the sofa address to the nation on Sunday just increased that suspicion. The Westminster party may not want a GE, and certainly not one while still being led by May. But I just don't see the Parliamentary arithmetic allowing for a quick Leadership contest with the clock ticking down to a decision being required in days? To me, a snap GE now with May as leader and called to try to get past this Parliamentary Brexit deadlock would be less toxic for the Conservative party than one later under a new Leader after the Government had been forced into a humiliatingly lengthy extension.
Too clever by half . She's been surviving month by month since the GE. Recently it has been week by week , then day by day . Increasingly it's hour by hour . There is no grand strategy . There never was .
I just wonder at what stage those MPs are going to really regret not passing May's Withdrawal Agreement at the last minute when they had the opportunity, instead making the mistake of focusing on taking control of Parliament and simple using that power to stop a No Deal while having no clear plan they could unite around in place of May's withdrawal agreement. It would be ironic if after spending two years making sure that May owned Brexit and its mistakes, they then proved that she was the only one who did have a feasible compromise plan that delivered a managed Brexit.
May's deal was absolute garbage carefully crafted for reasons of internal tory party management and no regard for the rest of the country. No deal, revoke, 2nd ref or a delay longer than Fuzz Townshend's cock are all better outcomes.
It could be sorted tomorrow. Our MPs have been hapless but the not choosing something so an extension must occur is, haphazardly, what most of them wanted.
Another year at least. Genuinely depressing stuff. Theres nothing about this that requires uncertainty like that.
Yes, genuinely depressing, and the uncertainty that such a long extension will cause could well end up doing the UK real economic harm...
What difference would it have made if the deal had passed? We'd still face uncertain trade negotiations.
"If being gay is a choice, it was made way, way above my pay grade."
Biden won't stand. Sanders will flop.
Which makes it all very exciting.
Buttigieg is the blank slate onto which people will project their hopes. That is why he might well win the nomination.
And the General? I think that'll mostly be a consequence of how the US economy is doing. Right now, the indicators are all pointing to weakening demand. If that continues, then Biden or Buttigieg or Harris or whoever will probably win - if Trump isn't delivering prosperity, then he simply won't get that much support.
And the corollary is that if the economy turns round and the US has 3+% GDP growth next year, then it probably doesn't matter who the Democrats pick.
I'll just leave this out here (again) - if Sanders' health holds out, he will win the Democratic primary, and if Trump is still president, Sanders will beat him in the General no matter what the GDP figure is.
How many points down is Trump in the key swing states that delivered his win last time? It's an awful lot, and there's nothing that's going to rejuvenate his popularity short of a war:
In Morning Consult's most recent survey, Trump is down in the following swing states: Florida (-24 points), Ohio (-20), Michigan (-19), Wisconsin (-18), and Pennsylvania (-17).
In 2016, Trump won all of those states, which together represent 93 electoral votes. Trump's electoral vote margin of victory was 74 points that year.
I fancy Sanders for the democratic nomination to be honest, I think RCS is writing him off far too easily. It is all well and good saying he is old but I'm not sure that is going to be enough for someone else to beat him. Nothing is for certain obviously but he has a very good chance.
Speaking of America what are some good American podcasts, looking for some stuff of the Democrat nomination mainly, nothing too biased to a political orientation in its actual assessment (that goes for Bernie cheerleading and demonising and everything else) but not too bothered about its political orientation (although the American right has a lot of evangelical and white supremacist types that are a bit too extreme to be an enjoyable listen)
Found some stuff through google searching but I imagine there are some decent ones I'm missing.
I fancy Sanders for the democratic nomination to be honest, I think RCS is writing him off far too easily. It is all well and good saying he is old but I'm not sure that is going to be enough for someone else to beat him. Nothing is for certain obviously but he has a very good chance.
Speaking of America what are some good American podcasts, looking for some stuff of the Democrat nomination mainly, nothing too biased to a political orientation in its actual assessment (that goes for Bernie cheerleading and demonising and everything else) but not too bothered about its political orientation (although the American right has a lot of evangelical and white supremacist types that are a bit too extreme to be an enjoyable listen)
Found some stuff through google searching but I imagine there are some decent ones I'm missing.
Admittedly the clip I'm watching on twitter may not be a new one but unless there is some incredibly serious injury there the plaster is a pretty short term thing.
It could be sorted tomorrow. Our MPs have been hapless but the not choosing something so an extension must occur is, haphazardly, what most of them wanted.
Another year at least. Genuinely depressing stuff. Theres nothing about this that requires uncertainty like that.
I just read a rather depressing article by Tim Stanley. He suggests the problem is that MPs' ability to take decisions has simply atrophied, after years of outsourcing legislating to Brussels.
I was fully expecting MPs of all stripes embracing the return of sovereignty - because everyone wants power, right?
That they haven't makes me think that few are willing to accept the full responsibility of that sovereign power. Quite a sad realisation for someone interested in politics.
Was it Caroline Lucas who said it would be great if we can remain so that Parliament can get back to debating plastic bags and lightbulbs?
We are not what we were.
I don't think we were what we were, even then. I have gone off on one frequently about the poor qualities of MPs, but I can't help thinking they always were like this. @Charles said the other day that the problem is the gradual arrogation of executive power by the legislature, and I think he's right.
But hasn't power been slipping away from parliament and towards the executive using statutory instruments?
They’ve been taking power over stuff like matters such as treaties and declaring war
It could be sorted tomorrow. Our MPs have been hapless but the not choosing something so an extension must occur is, haphazardly, what most of them wanted.
Another year at least. Genuinely depressing stuff. Theres nothing about this that requires uncertainty like that.
Too clever by half . She's been surviving month by month since the GE. Recently it has been week by week , then day by day . Increasingly it's hour by hour . There is no grand strategy . There never was .
Ideally, May and the majority of her Westminster party would have liked to have seen the Withdrawal Agreement passed, May to then announce the date of her resignation following a Leadership contest which then allowed a new Leader to bed in and prepare to take up the next stage of the Brexit negotiations. But now very little chance of Parliament allowing that to happen, and absolutely no chance the EU will reopen the Withdrawal Agreement or just allow another short Article 50 extension with no sign of the Withdrawal Agreement being passed. Hence May's offer of talks with Corbyn, and even more Government led Indicative votes this week.
Apart from the most stubborn ERG members and Remainers in the Westminster party, I just don't think there are many other MPs in or outside the Cabinet who will stomach May accepting a humiliating and condition laden lengthy Article 50 extension which then sees us holding costly EP elections which opens up the door again to parties like Ukip to boot. Just look at the way Conservative MPs voted in Parliament yesterday afternoon on a short A50 extension!
Its a politically toxic situation with only one clear way out, a GE now whereby May gives the electorate the opportunity to have their say in the hope they vote to unblock the Parliamentary Brexit deadlock so she can deliver on Brexit via her Withdrawal Agreement. Its also the one option that would make it very difficult for the EU to block a very short A50 extension. But what is clear, someone in No10 has been doing some joined up thinking when it comes to this new approach in May's recent speeches to the nation.
That assumes net migration of only 245,000 per annum - its generally been above that for much of the last decade.
Of course now we seemingly aren't leaving the EU our politicians will say there is nothing they can do to control it as they fail at the same time to deliver the 2 million extra homes required as well as the schools, transport infrastructure, roads, police, doctors, maternity and other NHS services needed to cope. So the south east and London will continue to fill to bursting.
Scotland is projected to see hardly any net migration by comparison - surely Nicola could take a few more in and house some in her spare bedrooms?
That assumes net migration of only 245,000 per annum - its generally been above that for much of the last decade.
Of course now we seemingly aren't leaving the EU our politicians will say there is nothing they can do to control it as they fail at the same time to deliver the 2 million extra homes required as well as the schools, transport infrastructure, roads, police, doctors, maternity and other NHS services needed to cope. So the south east and London will continue to fill to bursting.
Scotland is projected to see hardly any net migration by comparison - surely Nicola could take a few more in and house some in her spare bedrooms?
That assumes net migration of only 245,000 per annum - its generally been above that for much of the last decade.
Of course now we seemingly aren't leaving the EU our politicians will say there is nothing they can do to control it as they fail at the same time to deliver the 2 million extra homes required as well as the schools, transport infrastructure, roads, police, doctors, maternity and other NHS services needed to cope. So the south east and London will continue to fill to bursting.
Scotland is projected to see hardly any net migration by comparison - surely Nicola could take a few more in and house some in her spare bedrooms?
Scotland and Wales ought to take more IMO.
It's not up to politicians, people live where they want to live.
You just wonder what her negotiating style is like with Merkel, Juncker, Barnier and Macron - are there lots of long silences before she just says yes?
Surely the Tories can't be leaderless in the middle of a local and EU election campaign?
He has gained 5 seats and his likely coalition partners are doing pretty well too.
Only issue is now whether Likud or Blue and white get most seats - with 93 per cent reporting they are on 35 each.
Shocking night for the Israeli Labour party (or Mapai in its early years) - who were the dominant party in Israel from the state's founding until the 1970s. Down to a mere 5% of the vote and 6 seats compared to 19 in the old parliament. In the late 60s/early 70s under Golda Meir they won nearly half the seats.
- As above, Con must have leader during local and Euro campaigns - So earliest TMay resignation date as leader will be just after Euros on 23 May - Two weeks for nominations plus MP ballots takes it to June 7 - Four to six weeks for members ballot means new leader July 5 to July 19 - No time for GE before Summer holidays - no chance of GE in August - Parliament must be sitting to vote for GE - returns early Sept - IF immediate vote for GE then GE mid October
Of course the above assumes the new leader wants an immediate GE. If not, it could obviously be much, much later.
Any GE after Thurs July 11 is very, very unlikely - minimum 5 week campaign means cut-off point for dissolution of Parliament is Thurs June 6.
@rcs1000 — has the site’s https certificate expired? I get a not secure message on my phone.
I don't think the site has ever had an https certificate. It's a right faff to get one working with a third party comments system so I can understand why no one has really bothered.
@rcs1000 — has the site’s https certificate expired? I get a not secure message on my phone.
I don't think the site has ever had an https certificate. It's a right faff to get one working with a third party comments system so I can understand why no one has really bothered.
Maybe it was an iOS update that has made this new message appear.
It's good to see the US government doing what it can to help resolve the 737-Max mess: new tariffs on the Airbus A320.
Not a joke.
Nope I'm surprised no one made more about it yesterday. Leaving the EU at the time there is a trade war between them and our next biggest market triggered by a company we partly "subsidised" is hardly the best timing.
Of course Boeing is hardly any different - the US just used space to hide the subsidies
It could be sorted tomorrow. Our MPs have been hapless but the not choosing something so an extension must occur is, haphazardly, what most of them wanted.
Another year at least. Genuinely depressing stuff. Theres nothing about this that requires uncertainty like that.
No, it couldn’t. Unless you’re talking about whether or not we actually leave the EU, then either May’s deal, or crashing out, would leave us with the same uncertainty about our relations with the EU and the rest of the world, and in even less favourable economic circumstances.
We have years of this ahead of us, whatever happens over the rest of this week. Enjoy.
In fairness to Biden from what I've seen and hearing other people talk about it I lean towards the touching being more like that of a grandfather/father/uncle type than anything sexual. Which he still shouldn't do but is on a whole different level to how sexual misconduct sounds.
I think the way the UK has dealt with Brexit since 2016 has been a positive lesson in democracy, not a negative one. Danny Finkelstein is saying something similar in tomorrow's Times apparently.
Not exactly.
What he says is that people who claimed our democracy was broken have not come up with a better plan.
the MEP Daniel Hannan was the leader — who argued that the reason people were fed up with politics was that politicians couldn’t do any of the things they promised. This was because they had given their power away to unaccountable bodies.
This echoes Bridgen's "microwave" policies nonsense.
Anyway...
They proposed a more direct form of politics, what they called direct democracy, and a referendum, particularly one that promised release from the EU, was an example of politics unmediated by politicians.
Except, of course, that it hasn’t been and couldn’t ever be. Because in its wake there are thousands of questions that need to be settled and even the advocates of the first referendum appear wary of using a further referendum to settle any of them.
That assumes net migration of only 245,000 per annum - its generally been above that for much of the last decade.
Of course now we seemingly aren't leaving the EU our politicians will say there is nothing they can do to control it as they fail at the same time to deliver the 2 million extra homes required as well as the schools, transport infrastructure, roads, police, doctors, maternity and other NHS services needed to cope. So the south east and London will continue to fill to bursting.
Scotland is projected to see hardly any net migration by comparison - surely Nicola could take a few more in and house some in her spare bedrooms?
You need to consider the age spectrum of the growth in population. It is of the elderly, with the working age population static. It is old folks homes that we need to be building.
It could be sorted tomorrow. Our MPs have been hapless but the not choosing something so an extension must occur is, haphazardly, what most of them wanted.
Another year at least. Genuinely depressing stuff. Theres nothing about this that requires uncertainty like that.
Yes, genuinely depressing, and the uncertainty that such a long extension will cause could well end up doing the UK real economic harm...
What difference would it have made if the deal had passed? We'd still face uncertain trade negotiations.
Exactly here treaty was crap and is in the bin where it deserves to be, they need to grow a pair and make a decision either IN or OUT.
@rcs1000 — has the site’s https certificate expired? I get a not secure message on my phone.
I don't think the site has ever had an https certificate. It's a right faff to get one working with a third party comments system so I can understand why no one has really bothered.
Yes. It's a pain.
And the fact that I'm not a real techy - I'm an entrepreneur, fund manager and economist, masquerading as a techy - doesn't help.
Basically I need to devote a weekend to sorting out https, but I have a new business, and I'm moving house, and there are LAFC games to take my daughter to, and I want to hang out with my family.
In fairness to Biden from what I've seen and hearing other people talk about it I lean towards the touching being more like that of a grandfather/father/uncle type than anything sexual. Which he still shouldn't do but is on a whole different level to how sexual misconduct sounds.
Agree, it is these halfwitted cretins who think if a man is within a hundred yards he is in your space and offending you in some way. Bunch of nutjobs.
It's good to see the US government doing what it can to help resolve the 737-Max mess: new tariffs on the Airbus A320.
Not a joke.
Nope I'm surprised no one made more about it yesterday. Leaving the EU at the time there is a trade war between them and our next biggest market triggered by a company we partly "subsidised" is hardly the best timing.
Of course Boeing is hardly any different - the US just used space to hide the subsidies
Sandford Bernstein did a really excellent analysis of the subsidies that Boeing and Airbus recieved some time ago. (It might be a decade ago).
Basically, Airbus gets subsidised R&D and cheap loans. While Boeing gets space and defence contracts at well above market rates.
And, IIRC, Airbus was "worse" - but only in the same way that herpes is worse than syphilis.
What's changed in the last two years, is that SpaceX is shining a light on how much the US government has been subsidising Boeing via space contracts.
That assumes net migration of only 245,000 per annum - its generally been above that for much of the last decade.
Of course now we seemingly aren't leaving the EU our politicians will say there is nothing they can do to control it as they fail at the same time to deliver the 2 million extra homes required as well as the schools, transport infrastructure, roads, police, doctors, maternity and other NHS services needed to cope. So the south east and London will continue to fill to bursting.
Scotland is projected to see hardly any net migration by comparison - surely Nicola could take a few more in and house some in her spare bedrooms?
Scotland and Wales ought to take more IMO.
It's not up to politicians, people live where they want to live.
Or for smart arses to think they are funny either, sounds like someone thinks he is a comedienne. Scotland at least is happy to take more.
- As above, Con must have leader during local and Euro campaigns - So earliest TMay resignation date as leader will be just after Euros on 23 May - Two weeks for nominations plus MP ballots takes it to June 7 - Four to six weeks for members ballot means new leader July 5 to July 19 - No time for GE before Summer holidays - no chance of GE in August - Parliament must be sitting to vote for GE - returns early Sept - IF immediate vote for GE then GE mid October
Of course the above assumes the new leader wants an immediate GE. If not, it could obviously be much, much later.
Any GE after Thurs July 11 is very, very unlikely - minimum 5 week campaign means cut-off point for dissolution of Parliament is Thurs June 6.
Politicians and people dislike big elections in November and December, so hey presto we are in 2020!?
@rcs1000 — has the site’s https certificate expired? I get a not secure message on my phone.
I don't think the site has ever had an https certificate. It's a right faff to get one working with a third party comments system so I can understand why no one has really bothered.
Yes. It's a pain.
And the fact that I'm not a real techy - I'm an entrepreneur, fund manager and economist, masquerading as a techy - doesn't help.
Basically I need to devote a weekend to sorting out https, but I have a new business, and I'm moving house, and there are LAFC games to take my daughter to, and I want to hang out with my family.
You just wonder what her negotiating style is like with Merkel, Juncker, Barnier and Macron - are there lots of long silences before she just says yes?
Surely the Tories can't be leaderless in the middle of a local and EU election campaign?
From all accounts I’ve heard, that’s what she’s like.
@rcs1000 — has the site’s https certificate expired? I get a not secure message on my phone.
I don't think the site has ever had an https certificate. It's a right faff to get one working with a third party comments system so I can understand why no one has really bothered.
Yes. It's a pain.
And the fact that I'm not a real techy - I'm an entrepreneur, fund manager and economist, masquerading as a techy - doesn't help.
Basically I need to devote a weekend to sorting out https, but I have a new business, and I'm moving house, and there are LAFC games to take my daughter to, and I want to hang out with my family.
That assumes net migration of only 245,000 per annum - its generally been above that for much of the last decade.
Of course now we seemingly aren't leaving the EU our politicians will say there is nothing they can do to control it as they fail at the same time to deliver the 2 million extra homes required as well as the schools, transport infrastructure, roads, police, doctors, maternity and other NHS services needed to cope. So the south east and London will continue to fill to bursting.
Scotland is projected to see hardly any net migration by comparison - surely Nicola could take a few more in and house some in her spare bedrooms?
They’re largely economic migrants, not refugees. If they don’t want to/can’t/aren’t going to Scotland that’ll be the foundation of the reason - the economic prospects in England are better.
The rise of automation and AI will do more for reducing mass immigration than any government policy.
@rcs1000 — has the site’s https certificate expired? I get a not secure message on my phone.
I don't think the site has ever had an https certificate. It's a right faff to get one working with a third party comments system so I can understand why no one has really bothered.
Yes. It's a pain.
And the fact that I'm not a real techy - I'm an entrepreneur, fund manager and economist, masquerading as a techy - doesn't help.
Basically I need to devote a weekend to sorting out https, but I have a new business, and I'm moving house, and there are LAFC games to take my daughter to, and I want to hang out with my family.
When a bit less sleepy I shall peruse said markets, although I'm not a general fan of long term bets (my Hamilton wins bet aside, which I hope to collect on next season).
All this talk of microwave politics is obvious nonsense; displacement activity for people looking for an explanation that still blames the EU. It wasn't so long that we were accusing the EU of always kicking the can; now we can't as our politicians have proved to be the grand masters. Politicians will always tend toward the path of least resistance, especially if they represent people with a strong mix of views. And right now the path of least resistance is to go for more time.
What has changed is that there is now a large constituency of people who will feel genuinely let down if we leave, to balance those who would always have felt like that if we stay. Last year most remainers would have grumbled but put up with something like May's deal coming on the back of the referendum. But the open infighting between advocates of Leave, with its strongest advocates trashing any real world way of leaving and showing utter disregard for the impact on real lives, and the chaos within the governing party has laid bare the flaws in Brexit and created space for people first to advocate a referendum and more recently revocation.
From the politicians' perspective the hope is that more time enables the silent majority to settle on one side of the argument or the other.
It could be sorted tomorrow. Our MPs have been hapless but the not choosing something so an extension must occur is, haphazardly, what most of them wanted.
Another year at least. Genuinely depressing stuff. Theres nothing about this that requires uncertainty like that.
I just read a rather depressing article by Tim Stanley. He suggests the problem is that MPs' ability to take decisions has simply atrophied, after years of outsourcing legislating to Brussels.
I think there is that but even more it’s the fact that far too many viewed being an MP as a career choice where you graduate with PPE from Oxbridge, do a few years political think-tanking or advising and then become an MP, where all you have to do is take the whip, following broadly centrist policies, and genuflect your rhetoric a bit to take account of currents of public opinion.
Big issues, big decisions and big leadership is something our political class is wholly unprepared for and some of them have even gone so far as to say how unfair it all is.
All this talk of microwave politics is obvious nonsense; displacement activity for people looking for an explanation that still blames the EU. It wasn't so long that we were accusing the EU of always kicking the can; now we can't as our politicians have proved to be the grand masters. Politicians will always tend toward the path of least resistance, especially if they represent people with a strong mix of views. And right now the path of least resistance is to go for more time.
What has changed is that there is now a large constituency of people who will feel genuinely let down if we leave, to balance those who would always have felt like that if we stay. Last year most remainers would have grumbled but put up with something like May's deal coming on the back of the referendum. But the open infighting between advocates of Leave, with its strongest advocates trashing any real world way of leaving and showing utter disregard for the impact on real lives, and the chaos within the governing party has laid bare the flaws in Brexit and created space for people first to advocate a referendum and more recently revocation.
From the politicians' perspective the hope is that more time enables the silent majority to settle on one side of the argument or the other.
Yep, the hard Leavers have blown it.
The May Deal was (and is) perfectly practicalable and we’d soon have built on it to provide a lasting settlement that both sides could have lived with.
@rcs1000 — has the site’s https certificate expired? I get a not secure message on my phone.
I don't think the site has ever had an https certificate. It's a right faff to get one working with a third party comments system so I can understand why no one has really bothered.
Yes. It's a pain.
And the fact that I'm not a real techy - I'm an entrepreneur, fund manager and economist, masquerading as a techy - doesn't help.
Basically I need to devote a weekend to sorting out https, but I have a new business, and I'm moving house, and there are LAFC games to take my daughter to, and I want to hang out with my family.
@rcs1000 — has the site’s https certificate expired? I get a not secure message on my phone.
I don't think the site has ever had an https certificate. It's a right faff to get one working with a third party comments system so I can understand why no one has really bothered.
Yes. It's a pain.
And the fact that I'm not a real techy - I'm an entrepreneur, fund manager and economist, masquerading as a techy - doesn't help.
Basically I need to devote a weekend to sorting out https, but I have a new business, and I'm moving house, and there are LAFC games to take my daughter to, and I want to hang out with my family.
It could be sorted tomorrow. Our MPs have been hapless but the not choosing something so an extension must occur is, haphazardly, what most of them wanted.
Another year at least. Genuinely depressing stuff. Theres nothing about this that requires uncertainty like that.
I just read a rather depressing article by Tim Stanley. He suggests the problem is that MPs' ability to take decisions has simply atrophied, after years of outsourcing legislating to Brussels.
I think there is that but even more it’s the fact that far too many viewed being an MP as a career choice where you graduate with PPE from Oxbridge, do a few years political think-tanking or advising and then become an MP, where all you have to do is take the whip, following broadly centrist policies, and genuflect your rhetoric a bit to take account of currents of public opinion.
Big issues, big decisions and big leadership is something our political class is wholly unprepared for and some of them have even gone so far as to say how unfair it all is.
One could argue that it's all to do with paying people a living wage to be in Parliament; 120 or so years ago one could not be in Parliament without some sort of income from outside, be it lawyer or merchant, mill-owner or landowner.
That assumes net migration of only 245,000 per annum - its generally been above that for much of the last decade.
Of course now we seemingly aren't leaving the EU our politicians will say there is nothing they can do to control it as they fail at the same time to deliver the 2 million extra homes required as well as the schools, transport infrastructure, roads, police, doctors, maternity and other NHS services needed to cope. So the south east and London will continue to fill to bursting.
Scotland is projected to see hardly any net migration by comparison - surely Nicola could take a few more in and house some in her spare bedrooms?
They’re largely economic migrants, not refugees. If they don’t want to/can’t/aren’t going to Scotland that’ll be the foundation of the reason - the economic prospects in England are better.
The rise of automation and AI will do more for reducing mass immigration than any government policy.
There was a very interesting documentary on radio 4 about AI and automation recently. Cant remember the title though sorry. In it they speculated that lower human inputs would reduce the cost benefits of offshoring and lead to more production being repatriated to first world economies. A positive for us but developing world unemployment creates a new set of problems.
All this talk of microwave politics is obvious nonsense; displacement activity for people looking for an explanation that still blames the EU. It wasn't so long that we were accusing the EU of always kicking the can; now we can't as our politicians have proved to be the grand masters. Politicians will always tend toward the path of least resistance, especially if they represent people with a strong mix of views. And right now the path of least resistance is to go for more time.
What has changed is that there is now a large constituency of people who will feel genuinely let down if we leave, to balance those who would always have felt like that if we stay. Last year most remainers would have grumbled but put up with something like May's deal coming on the back of the referendum. But the open infighting between advocates of Leave, with its strongest advocates trashing any real world way of leaving and showing utter disregard for the impact on real lives, and the chaos within the governing party has laid bare the flaws in Brexit and created space for people first to advocate a referendum and more recently revocation.
From the politicians' perspective the hope is that more time enables the silent majority to settle on one side of the argument or the other.
Spot on. In Scotland the mood now is vehemently pro Europe. This will not change whatever happens at Westminster. Ruth Davidson is back in under a month and has some difficult decisions to make. It may we’ll be that the Scottish tories split from the English to allow them to distance themselves from the erg.
I think the EC knows this and will give the UK time to allow the remainers to build strength. This may be good for them. It would be ironic if the brexit vote led to a stronger EC with Brits being the core of its strength.
F1: Leclerc's odds to beat Vettel, which I backed yesterday at 3, have fallen again to 1.95, Vettel's back up to 1.8. Not sure if my bet's been voided or if it stands.
@rcs1000 — has the site’s https certificate expired? I get a not secure message on my phone.
I don't think the site has ever had an https certificate. It's a right faff to get one working with a third party comments system so I can understand why no one has really bothered.
Yes. It's a pain.
And the fact that I'm not a real techy - I'm an entrepreneur, fund manager and economist, masquerading as a techy - doesn't help.
Basically I need to devote a weekend to sorting out https, but I have a new business, and I'm moving house, and there are LAFC games to take my daughter to, and I want to hang out with my family.
So: it's not been top of my priority list...
I thought you'd moved house last year ? How often do you move
All this talk of microwave politics is obvious nonsense; displacement activity for people looking for an explanation that still blames the EU. It wasn't so long that we were accusing the EU of always kicking the can; now we can't as our politicians have proved to be the grand masters. Politicians will always tend toward the path of least resistance, especially if they represent people with a strong mix of views. And right now the path of least resistance is to go for more time.
What has changed is that there is now a large constituency of people who will feel genuinely let down if we leave, to balance those who would always have felt like that if we stay. Last year most remainers would have grumbled but put up with something like May's deal coming on the back of the referendum. But the open infighting between advocates of Leave, with its strongest advocates trashing any real world way of leaving and showing utter disregard for the impact on real lives, and the chaos within the governing party has laid bare the flaws in Brexit and created space for people first to advocate a referendum and more recently revocation.
From the politicians' perspective the hope is that more time enables the silent majority to settle on one side of the argument or the other.
Yep, the hard Leavers have blown it.
The May Deal was (and is) perfectly practicalable and we’d soon have built on it to provide a lasting settlement that both sides could have lived with.
It has actually been a lack of understanding of politics, and of how fragile their victory was. It needed nurturing, protecting and strengthening from the beginning, rather than given a public trashing. It is as if the soldiers of an army that had narrowly won a battle immediately started fighting among themselves, with the defeated survivors watching on from a nearby hill.
The most likely 'explanation' is that most of the guilty individual politicians come from the fringes, with no experience of the conflicting pressures and checks and balances of holding real power, and little experience of managing anything that complicated themselves.
You just wonder what her negotiating style is like with Merkel, Juncker, Barnier and Macron - are there lots of long silences before she just says yes?
Surely the Tories can't be leaderless in the middle of a local and EU election campaign?
All this talk of microwave politics is obvious nonsense; displacement activity for people looking for an explanation that still blames the EU. It wasn't so long that we were accusing the EU of always kicking the can; now we can't as our politicians have proved to be the grand masters. Politicians will always tend toward the path of least resistance, especially if they represent people with a strong mix of views. And right now the path of least resistance is to go for more time.
What has changed is that there is now a large constituency of people who will feel genuinely let down if we leave, to balance those who would always have felt like that if we stay. Last year most remainers would have grumbled but put up with something like May's deal coming on the back of the referendum. But the open infighting between advocates of Leave, with its strongest advocates trashing any real world way of leaving and showing utter disregard for the impact on real lives, and the chaos within the governing party has laid bare the flaws in Brexit and created space for people first to advocate a referendum and more recently revocation.
From the politicians' perspective the hope is that more time enables the silent majority to settle on one side of the argument or the other.
It could be sorted tomorrow. Our MPs have been hapless but the not choosing something so an extension must occur is, haphazardly, what most of them wanted.
Another year at least. Genuinely depressing stuff. Theres nothing about this that requires uncertainty like that.
I just read a rather depressing article by Tim Stanley. He suggests the problem is that MPs' ability to take decisions has simply atrophied, after years of outsourcing legislating to Brussels.
I think there is that but even more it’s the fact that far too many viewed being an MP as a career choice where you graduate with PPE from Oxbridge, do a few years political think-tanking or advising and then become an MP, where all you have to do is take the whip, following broadly centrist policies, and genuflect your rhetoric a bit to take account of currents of public opinion.
Big issues, big decisions and big leadership is something our political class is wholly unprepared for and some of them have even gone so far as to say how unfair it all is.
One could argue that it's all to do with paying people a living wage to be in Parliament; 120 or so years ago one could not be in Parliament without some sort of income from outside, be it lawyer or merchant, mill-owner or landowner.
As Danny Finkelstein points out in this morning’s Times, the criticism of MPs is off point.
That there are some prize pills amongst them is undeniable, but has that not always been the case ?
The reality is that they rather well represent a nation split down the middle, and it is not a surprise that they cannot agree on how to proceed with Brexit, as neither can the electorate.
@rcs1000 — has the site’s https certificate expired? I get a not secure message on my phone.
I don't think the site has ever had an https certificate. It's a right faff to get one working with a third party comments system so I can understand why no one has really bothered.
Yes. It's a pain.
And the fact that I'm not a real techy - I'm an entrepreneur, fund manager and economist, masquerading as a techy - doesn't help.
Basically I need to devote a weekend to sorting out https, but I have a new business, and I'm moving house, and there are LAFC games to take my daughter to, and I want to hang out with my family.
She'd better hope the stadium architects and engineers took into account the whole crowd jumping (and more importantly, landing) in unison. Still, if it's on the San Andreas fault (Al Murray joke: typical Americans, passing the blame onto some poor bloody Mexican).
All this talk of microwave politics is obvious nonsense; displacement activity for people looking for an explanation that still blames the EU. It wasn't so long that we were accusing the EU of always kicking the can; now we can't as our politicians have proved to be the grand masters. Politicians will always tend toward the path of least resistance, especially if they represent people with a strong mix of views. And right now the path of least resistance is to go for more time.
What has changed is that there is now a large constituency of people who will feel genuinely let down if we leave, to balance those who would always have felt like that if we stay. Last year most remainers would have grumbled but put up with something like May's deal coming on the back of the referendum. But the open infighting between advocates of Leave, with its strongest advocates trashing any real world way of leaving and showing utter disregard for the impact on real lives, and the chaos within the governing party has laid bare the flaws in Brexit and created space for people first to advocate a referendum and more recently revocation.
From the politicians' perspective the hope is that more time enables the silent majority to settle on one side of the argument or the other.
Spot on. In Scotland the mood now is vehemently pro Europe. This will not change whatever happens at Westminster. Ruth Davidson is back in under a month and has some difficult decisions to make. It may we’ll be that the Scottish tories split from the English to allow them to distance themselves from the erg.
I think the EC knows this and will give the UK time to allow the remainers to build strength. This may be good for them. It would be ironic if the brexit vote led to a stronger EC with Brits being the core of its strength.
Ironic isn't the right word. It would be the best possible outcome from this whole episode. Indeed pretty much the only outcome where we emerge better off than when we started, particularly if the shock of the experience brings about political reform and reorients politicians towards the underlying concerns of those who voted Leave.
F1: interesting that Leclerc (and Ferrari's) stock has risen so much since Australia. Leclerc's favourite, ahead of Vettel, with Hamilton third, for fastest qualifier and race win at the weekend.
Bottas is 8.5 to be fastest qualifier. He was a small margin behind Hamilton in Australia, and half a tenth (had to check that) behind him in Bahrain. If the Mercedes is fastest in China, this seems too long to me. Each way is a third the odds top 2.
Other things that caught my eye: Alfa Romeo (formerly Sauber) are 11 to double score. On pace, they don't have it. But McLaren (partly due to bad luck), Haas, and Renault have atrocious reliability already. Only two races in so that's not a huge sample size, but of 12 potential finishes they have 7 DNFs between them already. In that scenario, Alfa Romeo seem likeliest to benefit. Worth a thought.
I believe that from every position they've retired, Renault were poised for points. Ricciardo and Hulkenberg are both 1.57 to score, and 4 to not be classified (NB, they actually counted as classified in the last race because their synchronised retirement came so late on). It's not a perfect pairing, but betting both on an NC result and a points finish *could* be worth a look.
I also checked the first practice odds. In both P1s so far we've had two Ferraris, but their odds are very short, so no bet there for me.
I'm going to back Bottas, might put a tiny sum on some of the other bets.
As an aside, I'm liking the large amount of information/stats the official F1 site has up. I did criticise it a year or two ago for being rubbish, but I've found it very handy this year.
OT space boffins are set to reveal black hole pictures and a "breakthrough discovery in astronomy" at 2pm. The European announcement will be at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dr20f19czeE
I don’t buy the argument that EU membership has infantilised our politicians. If that were the case it would be the same everywhere in Europe - but clearly it isn’t given how EU politicians have run rings round our lot. My guess is that it’s more our confrontational system does not allow space for considered, coherent thought, reflection and compromise. We are, as ever, our own worst enemies.
OT space boffins are set to reveal black hole pictures and a "breakthrough discovery in astronomy" at 2pm. The European announcement will be at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dr20f19czeE
Expect most pictures to be artist's rendition, and the real "picture" to be a pixelated mess (it's not a picture in the normal sense of the word).
All this talk of microwave politics is obvious nonsense; displacement activity for people looking for an explanation that still blames the EU. It wasn't so long that we were accusing the EU of always kicking the can; now we can't as our politicians have proved to be the grand masters. Politicians will always tend toward the path of least resistance, especially if they represent people with a strong mix of views. And right now the path of least resistance is to go for more time.
What has changed is that there is now a large constituency of people who will feel genuinely let down if we leave, to balance those who would always have felt like that if we stay. Last year most remainers would have grumbled but put up with something like May's deal coming on the back of the referendum. But the open infighting between advocates of Leave, with its strongest advocates trashing any real world way of leaving and showing utter disregard for the impact on real lives, and the chaos within the governing party has laid bare the flaws in Brexit and created space for people first to advocate a referendum and more recently revocation.
From the politicians' perspective the hope is that more time enables the silent majority to settle on one side of the argument or the other.
Yep, the hard Leavers have blown it.
The May Deal was (and is) perfectly practicalable and we’d soon have built on it to provide a lasting settlement that both sides could have lived with.
It has actually been a lack of understanding of politics, and of how fragile their victory was. It needed nurturing, protecting and strengthening from the beginning, rather than given a public trashing. It is as if the soldiers of an army that had narrowly won a battle immediately started fighting among themselves, with the defeated survivors watching on from a nearby hill.
The most likely 'explanation' is that most of the guilty individual politicians come from the fringes, with no experience of the conflicting pressures and checks and balances of holding real power, and little experience of managing anything that complicated themselves.
Yep, agree with all of that.
My mistake was to think they had some basic political nous and common sense.
Mr. Observer, disagree. We've had that adversarial approach for a long time.
I'd return to my point on the media being atrocious. Politicians are put under a microscope, every disagreement is a split, every original idea a challenge to authority, every interview a scalp hunt. Meanwhile, legislation rarely gets any serious scrutiny, when it should be the other way around.
Deterring talented people from politics by the media treatment of politicians has not improved matters.
F1: interesting that Leclerc (and Ferrari's) stock has risen so much since Australia. Leclerc's favourite, ahead of Vettel, with Hamilton third, for fastest qualifier and race win at the weekend.
Bottas is 8.5 to be fastest qualifier. He was a small margin behind Hamilton in Australia, and half a tenth (had to check that) behind him in Bahrain. If the Mercedes is fastest in China, this seems too long to me. Each way is a third the odds top 2.
Other things that caught my eye: Alfa Romeo (formerly Sauber) are 11 to double score. On pace, they don't have it. But McLaren (partly due to bad luck), Haas, and Renault have atrocious reliability already. Only two races in so that's not a huge sample size, but of 12 potential finishes they have 7 DNFs between them already. In that scenario, Alfa Romeo seem likeliest to benefit. Worth a thought.
I believe that from every position they've retired, Renault were poised for points. Ricciardo and Hulkenberg are both 1.57 to score, and 4 to not be classified (NB, they actually counted as classified in the last race because their synchronised retirement came so late on). It's not a perfect pairing, but betting both on an NC result and a points finish *could* be worth a look.
I also checked the first practice odds. In both P1s so far we've had two Ferraris, but their odds are very short, so no bet there for me.
I'm going to back Bottas, might put a tiny sum on some of the other bets.
As an aside, I'm liking the large amount of information/stats the official F1 site has up. I did criticise it a year or two ago for being rubbish, but I've found it very handy this year.
I'm backing Ferrari to win qualy, and Mercedes to win the race - for the same reasons as happened in Bahrain. The red cars are fast but unreliable over a race distance.
Yes, the F1 site is loads better than it was before - amazing what happens when sports marketing people take over from an octogenarian who didn't care about the fans.
It could be sorted tomorrow. Our MPs have been hapless but the not choosing something so an extension must occur is, haphazardly, what most of them wanted.
Another year at least. Genuinely depressing stuff. Theres nothing about this that requires uncertainty like that.
I just read a rather depressing article by Tim Stanley. He suggests the problem is that MPs' ability to take decisions has simply atrophied, after years of outsourcing legislating to Brussels.
I think there is that but even more it’s the fact that far too many viewed being an MP as a career choice where you graduate with PPE from Oxbridge, do a few years political think-tanking or advising and then become an MP, where all you have to do is take the whip, following broadly centrist policies, and genuflect your rhetoric a bit to take account of currents of public opinion.
Big issues, big decisions and big leadership is something our political class is wholly unprepared for and some of them have even gone so far as to say how unfair it all is.
One could argue that it's all to do with paying people a living wage to be in Parliament; 120 or so years ago one could not be in Parliament without some sort of income from outside, be it lawyer or merchant, mill-owner or landowner.
As Danny Finkelstein points out in this morning’s Times, the criticism of MPs is off point.
That there are some prize pills amongst them is undeniable, but has that not always been the case ?
The reality is that they rather well represent a nation split down the middle, and it is not a surprise that they cannot agree on how to proceed with Brexit, as neither can the electorate.
It is true MPs have always been a mixed-ability class but a few of the special needs kids have been running with scissors: witness recent discoveries by ministers, no less, that Dover is near France and NI loyalists and nationalists vote for different parties.
The trouble with Brexit is that despite having campaigned for decades for Britain to leave the EU, no-one, not Farage or Ukip or the ERG, has given a moment's thought to what a post-Brexit Britain should look like. More crucially, neither Cameron nor Theresa May thought to establish this before calling the referendum or triggering Article 50 respectively. May's WA and PD is a unicorn; no-one likes it; no-one trusts it; she don't care (to borrow the old Millwall chant).
It could be sorted tomorrow. Our MPs have been hapless but the not choosing something so an extension must occur is, haphazardly, what most of them wanted.
Another year at least. Genuinely depressing stuff. Theres nothing about this that requires uncertainty like that.
I just read a rather depressing article by Tim Stanley. He suggests the problem is that MPs' ability to take decisions has simply atrophied, after years of outsourcing legislating to Brussels.
I think there is that but even more it’s the fact that far too many viewed being an MP as a career choice where you graduate with PPE from Oxbridge, do a few years political think-tanking or advising and then become an MP, where all you have to do is take the whip, following broadly centrist policies, and genuflect your rhetoric a bit to take account of currents of public opinion.
Big issues, big decisions and big leadership is something our political class is wholly unprepared for and some of them have even gone so far as to say how unfair it all is.
One could argue that it's all to do with paying people a living wage to be in Parliament; 120 or so years ago one could not be in Parliament without some sort of income from outside, be it lawyer or merchant, mill-owner or landowner.
As Danny Finkelstein points out in this morning’s Times, the criticism of MPs is off point.
That there are some prize pills amongst them is undeniable, but has that not always been the case ?
The reality is that they rather well represent a nation split down the middle, and it is not a surprise that they cannot agree on how to proceed with Brexit, as neither can the electorate.
It was a binary choice. Of course the electorate decided.....
As of this morning, we crash out with No Deal in just over 63 hours time.
We know from experience that it takes about half an hour to actually secure an extension. They don't even need to put an SI through the Commons, this time, after that clever government amendment was quietly slipped into Cooper-Letwin. I doubt the ERG have worked out they won't get to vote on it, even afterwards.
F1: interesting that Leclerc (and Ferrari's) stock has risen so much since Australia. Leclerc's favourite, ahead of Vettel, with Hamilton third, for fastest qualifier and race win at the weekend.
Bottas is 8.5 to be fastest qualifier. He was a small margin behind Hamilton in Australia, and half a tenth (had to check that) behind him in Bahrain. If the Mercedes is fastest in China, this seems too long to me. Each way is a third the odds top 2.
Other things that caught my eye: Alfa Romeo (formerly Sauber) are 11 to double score. On pace, they don't have it. But McLaren (partly due to bad luck), Haas, and Renault have atrocious reliability already. Only two races in so that's not a huge sample size, but of 12 potential finishes they have 7 DNFs between them already. In that scenario, Alfa Romeo seem likeliest to benefit. Worth a thought.
I believe that from every position they've retired, Renault were poised for points. Ricciardo and Hulkenberg are both 1.57 to score, and 4 to not be classified (NB, they actually counted as classified in the last race because their synchronised retirement came so late on). It's not a perfect pairing, but betting both on an NC result and a points finish *could* be worth a look.
I also checked the first practice odds. In both P1s so far we've had two Ferraris, but their odds are very short, so no bet there for me.
I'm going to back Bottas, might put a tiny sum on some of the other bets.
As an aside, I'm liking the large amount of information/stats the official F1 site has up. I did criticise it a year or two ago for being rubbish, but I've found it very handy this year.
China is one of Hamilton’s better tracks, so I have doubts about backing Bottas. Particularly for qualifying. Ferrari look as though they have a more powerful engine than Mercedes, and it’s going to be cold in China - something that seems to suit them more than Mercedes. I’m not betting against them before I’ve seen some running in free practice.
It could be sorted tomorrow. Our MPs have been hapless but the not choosing something so an extension must occur is, haphazardly, what most of them wanted.
Another year at least. Genuinely depressing stuff. Theres nothing about this that requires uncertainty like that.
I just read a rather depressing article by Tim Stanley. He suggests the problem is that MPs' ability to take decisions has simply atrophied, after years of outsourcing legislating to Brussels.
I think there is that but even more it’s the fact that far too many viewed being an MP as a career choice where you graduate with PPE from Oxbridge, do a few years political think-tanking or advising and then become an MP, where all you have to do is take the whip, following broadly centrist policies, and genuflect your rhetoric a bit to take account of currents of public opinion.
Big issues, big decisions and big leadership is something our political class is wholly unprepared for and some of them have even gone so far as to say how unfair it all is.
+1
Even now, they are much more interested in what's good for their party or career, when it's abundantly clear to anyone watching from the outside that they need to step up and make a positive decision to do something.
Another year of uncertainty is close to the worst outcome at this point, second only to the outsourcing of our trade policy to the EU as we leave.
A large number of MPs are going to be very surprised by what happens if there's an election this year - the population are in a mood to give the lot of them a kicking.
It could be sorted tomorrow. Our MPs have been hapless but the not choosing something so an extension must occur is, haphazardly, what most of them wanted.
Another year at least. Genuinely depressing stuff. Theres nothing about this that requires uncertainty like that.
I just read a rather depressing article by Tim Stanley. He suggests the problem is that MPs' ability to take decisions has simply atrophied, after years of outsourcing legislating to Brussels.
I think there is that but even more it’s the fact that far too many viewed being an MP as a career choice where you graduate with PPE from Oxbridge, do a few years political think-tanking or advising and then become an MP, where all you have to do is take the whip, following broadly centrist policies, and genuflect your rhetoric a bit to take account of currents of public opinion.
Big issues, big decisions and big leadership is something our political class is wholly unprepared for and some of them have even gone so far as to say how unfair it all is.
One could argue that it's all to do with paying people a living wage to be in Parliament; 120 or so years ago one could not be in Parliament without some sort of income from outside, be it lawyer or merchant, mill-owner or landowner.
As Danny Finkelstein points out in this morning’s Times, the criticism of MPs is off point.
That there are some prize pills amongst them is undeniable, but has that not always been the case ?
The reality is that they rather well represent a nation split down the middle, and it is not a surprise that they cannot agree on how to proceed with Brexit, as neither can the electorate.
It was a binary choice. Of course the electorate decided.....
What part of “on how to proceed with Brexit” did you not comprehend ?
It could be sorted tomorrow. Our MPs have been hapless but the not choosing something so an extension must occur is, haphazardly, what most of them wanted.
Another year at least. Genuinely depressing stuff. Theres nothing about this that requires uncertainty like that.
I just read a rather depressing article by Tim Stanley. He suggests the problem is that MPs' ability to take decisions has simply atrophied, after years of outsourcing legislating to Brussels.
I think there is that but even more it’s the fact that far too many viewed being an MP as a career choice where you graduate with PPE from Oxbridge, do a few years political think-tanking or advising and then become an MP, where all you have to do is take the whip, following broadly centrist policies, and genuflect your rhetoric a bit to take account of currents of public opinion.
Big issues, big decisions and big leadership is something our political class is wholly unprepared for and some of them have even gone so far as to say how unfair it all is.
+1
Even now, they are much more interested in what's good for their party or career, when it's abundantly clear to anyone watching from the outside that they need to step up and make a positive decision to do something.
A large number of MPs are going to be very surprised by what happens if there's an election this year - the population are in a mood to give the lot of them a kicking.
You just wonder what her negotiating style is like with Merkel, Juncker, Barnier and Macron - are there lots of long silences before she just says yes?
Surely the Tories can't be leaderless in the middle of a local and EU election campaign?
It might be the perfect strategy.
They should make it an indicative vote for their leadership contest, Deal and No Deal factions each have their own list.
I think there is that but even more it’s the fact that far too many viewed being an MP as a career choice where you graduate with PPE from Oxbridge, do a few years political think-tanking or advising and then become an MP, where all you have to do is take the whip, following broadly centrist policies, and genuflect your rhetoric a bit to take account of currents of public opinion.
Big issues, big decisions and big leadership is something our political class is wholly unprepared for and some of them have even gone so far as to say how unfair it all is.
We don't often agree, but I think you're broadly right on this. Being an MP has always been a mixture of being one of a few hundred or a few dozen people championing a cause (the former if you're a party loyalist, the latter if you favour a dissident line), plus being a social worker, plus the more nebulous role of "influencer" (talking to Ministers and getting a nudge in policy). The reason why the deputy editor of The Economist and a number of businesspeople have failed at the job is that they were dismayed to find that they didn't really have much to decide. Sure, you could vote against your chosen cause sometimes, typically changing the majority from 87 to 85 while reducing your influence - but it was never obvious why that would help achieve much.
The hung Parliament and deep popular and party divisions in Europe have made all MPs into quasi-Ministers, forced to take executive decisions without much unbiased advice. Some have risen to the challenge - whether you approve of them or not, it's obvious that e.g. Grieve, Cooper and Boles understand the issues and are trying to develop serious policies. Some haven't tried, and just go along with their peer group. And some have a go without really grasping the complexities and practical limits and come out with something embarrassing, like Leadsom this week suggesting that hey, why don't we ask the EU to reopen the WA after all?
The attraction of simple demands - e.g. "Popular Vote!" or "No Deal Now!" - is that they offer a comprehensible idea with a significant public following. That doesn't necessarily make them good (though I'm a PV supporter myself), and some of their adherents don't give the impression of having thought them through.
In the messages after the Spurs V Man City game someone had written 'THFC 1 Arabs 0' which was liked by 70 people.
In the box which said ' Moderation Reference: 39134438 about Post 134470189 I believe this post is racist, sexist, homophobic, sexually explicit, abusive or otherwise objectionable for the following reason:
I wrote 'In this context 'Arab' is racist'
The BBC replied. Dear BBC Visitor. 'Further to your complaint about some of the content on a BBC website (reference number P39134442), we have decided that it does not contravene the House Rules and are going to leave it on site.'
I then wrote again in the same box 'Perhaps your moderators don't realise the significance of 'Arab' in this context. It is the same as saying THFC 1 Jews 0'
They then replied. Dear BBC Visitor. 'Further to your complaint about some of the content on a BBC web site (reference number P39134481), we have decided that it does indeed contravene the House Rules and have removed the offending material.'
Mr. Sandpit, maybe. I'd be interested to know what Vettel's apparent gremlin in Australia was.
Mr. B, Bottas has been close to Hamilton in both qualifying sessions so far, and both also had the same cars on the front row (ie all Mercedes or all Ferrari). We'll see what happens, of course, but I think his odds are out of kilter because his Bahrain performance was a bit iffy.
A good thing is that the season looks closely contested. For now, at least.
1. One way or another Brexit collapses under its own contradictions and thanks to the antics of its strongest adherents
2. Its legacy is a strongly pro-European sentiment with the memory of the fiasco we are living through providing antidote to previous media and political shyness to be actively positive about the EU
3. The public is bright enough to see that our political system is broken, pressure that leads to long overdue reform
4. Politicians are bright enough to see that their focus needs to change with concerns of 'left behind' people and communities given greater priority (political reform wil help as such areas are rarely marginals where political campaigns are currently focused)
These are in order of decreasing likelihood with the principal concern whether politicians will learn anything worthwhile with regard to 3. and 4. Experience - especially after the near global financial collapse where after initial shock, things then pretty much returned to how they were before - isn't encouraging.
1. One way or another Brexit collapses under its own contradictions and thanks to the antics of its strongest adherents
2. Its legacy is a strongly pro-European sentiment with the memory of the fiasco we are living through providing antidote to previous media and political shyness to be actively positive about the EU
3. The public is bright enough to see that our political system is broken, pressure that leads to long overdue reform
4. Politicians are bright enough to see that their focus needs to change with concerns of 'left behind' people and communities given greater priority (political reform wil help as such areas are rarely marginals where political campaigns are currently focused)
These are in order of decreasing likelihood with the principal concern whether politicians will learn anything worthwhile with regard to 3. and 4.
Alternatively....
1. One way or another Brexit collapses under its own contradictions and thanks to the antics of the majority of Remainer MPs
2. Its legacy is a strongly anti-European sentiment with the memory of the anti-democratic fiasco we are living through providing fuel to voter intent to be actively negative about the EU - which will carry the blame for EVERYTHING that goes wrong in our society
3. The public is bright enough to see that our political system is broken, but that pressure leads to MPs to become more distant, many refusing surgeries or public meetings for fear of unspecified "personal dangers"
4. Politicians are bright enough to ....dream on, friend.
1. One way or another Brexit collapses under its own contradictions and thanks to the antics of its strongest adherents
2. Its legacy is a strongly pro-European sentiment with the memory of the fiasco we are living through providing antidote to previous media and political shyness to be actively positive about the EU
3. The public is bright enough to see that our political system is broken, pressure that leads to long overdue reform
4. Politicians are bright enough to see that their focus needs to change with concerns of 'left behind' people and communities given greater priority (political reform wil help as such areas are rarely marginals where political campaigns are currently focused)
These are in order of decreasing likelihood with the principal concern whether politicians will learn anything worthwhile with regard to 3. and 4. Experience - especially after the near global financial collapse where after initial shock, things then pretty much returned to how they were before - isn't encouraging.
What is striking about that is that the first two are unrelated to the latter two.
Once Brexit is done and dusted, one way or another, we will still have all the same old problems and nothing will have changed, or at least not for the better.
1. One way or another Brexit collapses under its own contradictions and thanks to the antics of its strongest adherents
2. Its legacy is a strongly pro-European sentiment with the memory of the fiasco we are living through providing antidote to previous media and political shyness to be actively positive about the EU
3. The public is bright enough to see that our political system is broken, pressure that leads to long overdue reform
4. Politicians are bright enough to see that their focus needs to change with concerns of 'left behind' people and communities given greater priority (political reform wil help as such areas are rarely marginals where political campaigns are currently focused)
These are in order of decreasing likelihood with the principal concern whether politicians will learn anything worthwhile with regard to 3. and 4.
Alternatively....
1. One way or another Brexit collapses under its own contradictions and thanks to the antics of the majority of Remainer MPs
2. Its legacy is a strongly anti-European sentiment with the memory of the anti-democratic fiasco we are living through providing fuel to voter intent to be actively negative about the EU - which will carry the blame for EVERYTHING that goes wrong in our society
3. The public is bright enough to see that our political system is broken, but that pressure leads to MPs to become more distant, many refusing surgeries or public meetings for fear of unspecified "personal dangers"
4. Politicians are bright enough to ....dream on, friend.
What a miserably negative view of the world you Tories have.
1. One way or another Brexit collapses under its own contradictions and thanks to the antics of its strongest adherents
2. Its legacy is a strongly pro-European sentiment with the memory of the fiasco we are living through providing antidote to previous media and political shyness to be actively positive about the EU
3. The public is bright enough to see that our political system is broken, pressure that leads to long overdue reform
4. Politicians are bright enough to see that their focus needs to change with concerns of 'left behind' people and communities given greater priority (political reform wil help as such areas are rarely marginals where political campaigns are currently focused)
These are in order of decreasing likelihood with the principal concern whether politicians will learn anything worthwhile with regard to 3. and 4.
Alternatively....
1. One way or another Brexit collapses under its own contradictions and thanks to the antics of the majority of Remainer MPs
2. Its legacy is a strongly anti-European sentiment with the memory of the anti-democratic fiasco we are living through providing fuel to voter intent to be actively negative about the EU - which will carry the blame for EVERYTHING that goes wrong in our society
3. The public is bright enough to see that our political system is broken, but that pressure leads to MPs to become more distant, many refusing surgeries or public meetings for fear of unspecified "personal dangers"
4. Politicians are bright enough to ....dream on, friend.
What a miserably negative view of the world you Tories have.
1. One way or another Brexit collapses under its own contradictions and thanks to the antics of its strongest adherents
2. Its legacy is a strongly pro-European sentiment with the memory of the fiasco we are living through providing antidote to previous media and political shyness to be actively positive about the EU
3. The public is bright enough to see that our political system is broken, pressure that leads to long overdue reform
4. Politicians are bright enough to see that their focus needs to change with concerns of 'left behind' people and communities given greater priority (political reform wil help as such areas are rarely marginals where political campaigns are currently focused)
These are in order of decreasing likelihood with the principal concern whether politicians will learn anything worthwhile with regard to 3. and 4. Experience - especially after the near global financial collapse where after initial shock, things then pretty much returned to how they were before - isn't encouraging.
3) I dont think that we have a national consensus on how we should "reform". "Reform" is a nebulous word that we can all agree on, but usually means destroy. In the NHS, when I hear the word reform, I just reach for my blood pressure pills!
4) The areas "left behind" by globalisation and the consumer culture, have no easy solutions. School agedchildren in nappies, unable to use cutlery are unlikely to be the knowledge workers of the ew Singapore in the drizzle.
It could be sorted tomorrow. Our MPs have been hapless but the not choosing something so an extension must occur is, haphazardly, what most of them wanted.
Another year at least. Genuinely depressing stuff. Theres nothing about this that requires uncertainty like that.
I just read a rather depressing article by Tim Stanley. He suggests the problem is that MPs' ability to take decisions has simply atrophied, after years of outsourcing legislating to Brussels.
I think there is that but even more it’s the fact that far too many viewed being an MP as a career choice where you graduate with PPE from Oxbridge, do a few years political think-tanking or advising and then become an MP, where all you have to do is take the whip, following broadly centrist policies, and genuflect your rhetoric a bit to take account of currents of public opinion.
Big issues, big decisions and big leadership is something our political class is wholly unprepared for and some of them have even gone so far as to say how unfair it all is.
One could argue that it's all to do with paying people a living wage to be in Parliament; 120 or so years ago one could not be in Parliament without some sort of income from outside, be it lawyer or merchant, mill-owner or landowner.
As Danny Finkelstein points out in this morning’s Times, the criticism of MPs is off point.
That there are some prize pills amongst them is undeniable, but has that not always been the case ?
The reality is that they rather well represent a nation split down the middle, and it is not a surprise that they cannot agree on how to proceed with Brexit, as neither can the electorate.
It was a binary choice. Of course the electorate decided.....
The referendum was binary, but since then it has become ternary because some Leavers are unwilling to accept leaving with an agreement.
1. One way or another Brexit collapses under its own contradictions and thanks to the antics of its strongest adherents
2. Its legacy is a strongly pro-European sentiment with the memory of the fiasco we are living through providing antidote to previous media and political shyness to be actively positive about the EU
3. The public is bright enough to see that our political system is broken, pressure that leads to long overdue reform
4. Politicians are bright enough to see that their focus needs to change with concerns of 'left behind' people and communities given greater priority (political reform wil help as such areas are rarely marginals where political campaigns are currently focused)
These are in order of decreasing likelihood with the principal concern whether politicians will learn anything worthwhile with regard to 3. and 4. Experience - especially after the near global financial collapse where after initial shock, things then pretty much returned to how they were before - isn't encouraging.
What is striking about that is that the first two are unrelated to the latter two.
Once Brexit is done and dusted, one way or another, we will still have all the same old problems and nothing will have changed, or at least not for the better.
As with the financial crisis, which - as we lived through it, seemed to demand so much change - I suspect you are probably right. History and lessons, etc.
I voted remain but have always accepted the referendum and support leaving the EU. I am content that TM achieved a brexit deal that was agreed by the EU and we were able to leave on the 29th March
However, the brexiters and remainers have created a perfect storm creating the deadlock we now see
I believe TM has done her best and will go down as the PM who agreed brexit that was sabotaged by her own ERG, who by their behaviour provided the perfect get out for labour mps
Over the last few days an element of ERG have gone rogue and displayed the worst excess of an obsessive cult attacking everyone who does not support their own prejeudices and using the most inflamatory language and abuse, not only to their leader, but the EU with the appalling impression it gives to ordinary citizens in Europe and indeed across the World
My wife and I have watched this in utter despair and hope that somehow a softer brexit or remain will emerge out of this national breakdown
TM must surely resign soon but neither my wife or I will remain in the party if Johnson is elected leader
Collectively, MPs have failed over Brexit. Individually some have shone.
The government must bear a heavy responsibility for the failure of MPs. It has deliberately made it as hard as possible for a consensus to emerge because that consensus did not look likely to be one it was comfortable with.
In the messages after the Spurs V Man City game someone had written 'THFC 1 Arabs 0' which was liked by 70 people.
In the box which said ' Moderation Reference: 39134438 about Post 134470189 I believe this post is racist, sexist, homophobic, sexually explicit, abusive or otherwise objectionable for the following reason:
I wrote 'In this context 'Arab' is racist'
The BBC replied. Dear BBC Visitor. 'Further to your complaint about some of the content on a BBC website (reference number P39134442), we have decided that it does not contravene the House Rules and are going to leave it on site.'
I then wrote again in the same box 'Perhaps your moderators don't realise the significance of 'Arab' in this context. It is the same as saying THFC 1 Jews 0'
They then replied. Dear BBC Visitor. 'Further to your complaint about some of the content on a BBC web site (reference number P39134481), we have decided that it does indeed contravene the House Rules and have removed the offending material.'
Spurs weren't very Spursey last night.
Am I the only one thinking that they are a better team without Kane? I suppose we will find out in the next two months.
Comments
It might be timed just so for Trump's benefit.
I still find it incredible that so many MPs in Parliament appear to be so completely relaxed with the possibility of such a long Article 50 extension rather than voting for May's Withdrawal Agreement? And with the strong possibility of difficult and humiliating conditions attached by EU while claiming to be trying to do what is right for their constituents or the UK economy? That claim from many of them is already hanging by a shoogle peg, especially if May is pushed out sooner rather than later.
I just wonder at what stage those MPs are going to really regret not passing May's Withdrawal Agreement at the last minute when they had the opportunity, instead making the mistake of focusing on taking control of Parliament and simple using that power to stop a No Deal while having no clear plan they could unite around in place of May's withdrawal agreement. It would be ironic if after spending two years making sure that May owned Brexit and its mistakes, they then proved that she was the only one who did have a feasible compromise plan that delivered a managed Brexit.
Now beginning to wonder if the speech given by May which ruffled so many MPs and journalists feathers a few weeks ago, was in fact the start of a very clear strategy by May' team to prepare the necessary groundwork for a snap GE in the event she remained PM and she is unable to get conditions of a bad lengthy Article 50 extension past her party. The reach out to Corbyn and Labour for talks and the sofa address to the nation on Sunday just increased that suspicion. The Westminster party may not want a GE, and certainly not one while still being led by May. But I just don't see the Parliamentary arithmetic allowing for a quick Leadership contest with the clock ticking down to a decision being required in days? To me, a snap GE now with May as leader and called to try to get past this Parliamentary Brexit deadlock would be less toxic for the Conservative party than one later under a new Leader after the Government had been forced into a humiliatingly lengthy extension.
There is no grand strategy . There never was .
Speaking of America what are some good American podcasts, looking for some stuff of the Democrat nomination mainly, nothing too biased to a political orientation in its actual assessment (that goes for Bernie cheerleading and demonising and everything else) but not too bothered about its political orientation (although the American right has a lot of evangelical and white supremacist types that are a bit too extreme to be an enjoyable listen)
Found some stuff through google searching but I imagine there are some decent ones I'm missing.
Admittedly the clip I'm watching on twitter may not be a new one but unless there is some incredibly serious injury there the plaster is a pretty short term thing.
How well did parliament handle Syria or Brexit?
Apart from the most stubborn ERG members and Remainers in the Westminster party, I just don't think there are many other MPs in or outside the Cabinet who will stomach May accepting a humiliating and condition laden lengthy Article 50 extension which then sees us holding costly EP elections which opens up the door again to parties like Ukip to boot. Just look at the way Conservative MPs voted in Parliament yesterday afternoon on a short A50 extension!
Its a politically toxic situation with only one clear way out, a GE now whereby May gives the electorate the opportunity to have their say in the hope they vote to unblock the Parliamentary Brexit deadlock so she can deliver on Brexit via her Withdrawal Agreement. Its also the one option that would make it very difficult for the EU to block a very short A50 extension. But what is clear, someone in No10 has been doing some joined up thinking when it comes to this new approach in May's recent speeches to the nation.
(Skipping the obvious joke about meeting eating episcopalian bishops)
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/england-s-population-predicted-to-reach-60m-within-a-decade-zspwkhr52
Of course now we seemingly aren't leaving the EU our politicians will say there is nothing they can do to control it as they fail at the same time to deliver the 2 million extra homes required as well as the schools, transport infrastructure, roads, police, doctors, maternity and other NHS services needed to cope. So the south east and London will continue to fill to bursting.
Scotland is projected to see hardly any net migration by comparison - surely Nicola could take a few more in and house some in her spare bedrooms?
Surely the Tories can't be leaderless in the middle of a local and EU election campaign?
Only issue is now whether Likud or Blue and white get most seats - with 93 per cent reporting they are on 35 each.
Shocking night for the Israeli Labour party (or Mapai in its early years) - who were the dominant party in Israel from the state's founding until the 1970s. Down to a mere 5% of the vote and 6 seats compared to 19 in the old parliament. In the late 60s/early 70s under Golda Meir they won nearly half the seats.
- As above, Con must have leader during local and Euro campaigns
- So earliest TMay resignation date as leader will be just after Euros on 23 May
- Two weeks for nominations plus MP ballots takes it to June 7
- Four to six weeks for members ballot means new leader July 5 to July 19
- No time for GE before Summer holidays - no chance of GE in August
- Parliament must be sitting to vote for GE - returns early Sept
- IF immediate vote for GE then GE mid October
Of course the above assumes the new leader wants an immediate GE. If not, it could obviously be much, much later.
Any GE after Thurs July 11 is very, very unlikely - minimum 5 week campaign means cut-off point for dissolution of Parliament is Thurs June 6.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uXuckzydJAI
Not a joke.
Of course Boeing is hardly any different - the US just used space to hide the subsidies
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election/2020-polls-latest-trump-approval-rating-us-election-today-democrats-new-odds-biden-updates-a8862411.html
Unless you’re talking about whether or not we actually leave the EU, then either May’s deal, or crashing out, would leave us with the same uncertainty about our relations with the EU and the rest of the world, and in even less favourable economic circumstances.
We have years of this ahead of us, whatever happens over the rest of this week.
Enjoy.
What he says is that people who claimed our democracy was broken have not come up with a better plan.
the MEP Daniel Hannan was the leader — who argued that the reason people were fed up with politics was that politicians couldn’t do any of the things they promised. This was because they had given their power away to unaccountable bodies.
This echoes Bridgen's "microwave" policies nonsense.
Anyway...
They proposed a more direct form of politics, what they called direct democracy, and a referendum, particularly one that promised release from the EU, was an example of politics unmediated by politicians.
Except, of course, that it hasn’t been and couldn’t ever be. Because in its wake there are thousands of questions that need to be settled and even the advocates of the first referendum appear wary of using a further referendum to settle any of them.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/we-can-reinvent-politics-but-it-won-t-solve-brexit-bgntzcmfc
So it's more like our current system of democracy is the worst possible, apart from all the others...
https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/978302412363624448?s=19
And the fact that I'm not a real techy - I'm an entrepreneur, fund manager and economist, masquerading as a techy - doesn't help.
Basically I need to devote a weekend to sorting out https, but I have a new business, and I'm moving house, and there are LAFC games to take my daughter to, and I want to hang out with my family.
So: it's not been top of my priority list...
Basically, Airbus gets subsidised R&D and cheap loans.
While Boeing gets space and defence contracts at well above market rates.
And, IIRC, Airbus was "worse" - but only in the same way that herpes is worse than syphilis.
What's changed in the last two years, is that SpaceX is shining a light on how much the US government has been subsidising Boeing via space contracts.
From all accounts I’ve heard, that’s what she’s like.
This is LAFC:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2PnAjWvgqFc
The rise of automation and AI will do more for reducing mass immigration than any government policy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wKAyfwcHHw0
The pomposity and arrogance of the Remain campaign shifted a thousand times more votes than Putin could ever have hoped for in his dreams.
When a bit less sleepy I shall peruse said markets, although I'm not a general fan of long term bets (my Hamilton wins bet aside, which I hope to collect on next season).
What has changed is that there is now a large constituency of people who will feel genuinely let down if we leave, to balance those who would always have felt like that if we stay. Last year most remainers would have grumbled but put up with something like May's deal coming on the back of the referendum. But the open infighting between advocates of Leave, with its strongest advocates trashing any real world way of leaving and showing utter disregard for the impact on real lives, and the chaos within the governing party has laid bare the flaws in Brexit and created space for people first to advocate a referendum and more recently revocation.
From the politicians' perspective the hope is that more time enables the silent majority to settle on one side of the argument or the other.
Big issues, big decisions and big leadership is something our political class is wholly unprepared for and some of them have even gone so far as to say how unfair it all is.
The May Deal was (and is) perfectly practicalable and we’d soon have built on it to provide a lasting settlement that both sides could have lived with.
I think the EC knows this and will give the UK time to allow the remainers to build strength. This may be good for them. It would be ironic if the brexit vote led to a stronger EC with Brits being the core of its strength.
Peculiar movement.
Edited extra bit: and the Chinese markets are up.
The most likely 'explanation' is that most of the guilty individual politicians come from the fringes, with no experience of the conflicting pressures and checks and balances of holding real power, and little experience of managing anything that complicated themselves.
That there are some prize pills amongst them is undeniable, but has that not always been the case ?
The reality is that they rather well represent a nation split down the middle, and it is not a surprise that they cannot agree on how to proceed with Brexit, as neither can the electorate.
Bottas is 8.5 to be fastest qualifier. He was a small margin behind Hamilton in Australia, and half a tenth (had to check that) behind him in Bahrain. If the Mercedes is fastest in China, this seems too long to me. Each way is a third the odds top 2.
Other things that caught my eye:
Alfa Romeo (formerly Sauber) are 11 to double score. On pace, they don't have it. But McLaren (partly due to bad luck), Haas, and Renault have atrocious reliability already. Only two races in so that's not a huge sample size, but of 12 potential finishes they have 7 DNFs between them already. In that scenario, Alfa Romeo seem likeliest to benefit. Worth a thought.
I believe that from every position they've retired, Renault were poised for points. Ricciardo and Hulkenberg are both 1.57 to score, and 4 to not be classified (NB, they actually counted as classified in the last race because their synchronised retirement came so late on). It's not a perfect pairing, but betting both on an NC result and a points finish *could* be worth a look.
I also checked the first practice odds. In both P1s so far we've had two Ferraris, but their odds are very short, so no bet there for me.
I'm going to back Bottas, might put a tiny sum on some of the other bets.
As an aside, I'm liking the large amount of information/stats the official F1 site has up. I did criticise it a year or two ago for being rubbish, but I've found it very handy this year.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dr20f19czeE
https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1115740082592522240
My mistake was to think they had some basic political nous and common sense.
I'd return to my point on the media being atrocious. Politicians are put under a microscope, every disagreement is a split, every original idea a challenge to authority, every interview a scalp hunt. Meanwhile, legislation rarely gets any serious scrutiny, when it should be the other way around.
Deterring talented people from politics by the media treatment of politicians has not improved matters.
Yes, the F1 site is loads better than it was before - amazing what happens when sports marketing people take over from an octogenarian who didn't care about the fans.
The trouble with Brexit is that despite having campaigned for decades for Britain to leave the EU, no-one, not Farage or Ukip or the ERG, has given a moment's thought to what a post-Brexit Britain should look like. More crucially, neither Cameron nor Theresa May thought to establish this before calling the referendum or triggering Article 50 respectively. May's WA and PD is a unicorn; no-one likes it; no-one trusts it; she don't care (to borrow the old Millwall chant).
Ferrari look as though they have a more powerful engine than Mercedes, and it’s going to be cold in China - something that seems to suit them more than Mercedes. I’m not betting against them before I’ve seen some running in free practice.
Even now, they are much more interested in what's good for their party or career, when it's abundantly clear to anyone watching from the outside that they need to step up and make a positive decision to do something.
Another year of uncertainty is close to the worst outcome at this point, second only to the outsourcing of our trade policy to the EU as we leave.
A large number of MPs are going to be very surprised by what happens if there's an election this year - the population are in a mood to give the lot of them a kicking.
The hung Parliament and deep popular and party divisions in Europe have made all MPs into quasi-Ministers, forced to take executive decisions without much unbiased advice. Some have risen to the challenge - whether you approve of them or not, it's obvious that e.g. Grieve, Cooper and Boles understand the issues and are trying to develop serious policies. Some haven't tried, and just go along with their peer group. And some have a go without really grasping the complexities and practical limits and come out with something embarrassing, like Leadsom this week suggesting that hey, why don't we ask the EU to reopen the WA after all?
The attraction of simple demands - e.g. "Popular Vote!" or "No Deal Now!" - is that they offer a comprehensible idea with a significant public following. That doesn't necessarily make them good (though I'm a PV supporter myself), and some of their adherents don't give the impression of having thought them through.
In the messages after the Spurs V Man City game someone had written 'THFC 1 Arabs 0' which was liked by 70 people.
In the box which said ' Moderation Reference: 39134438 about Post 134470189 I believe this post is racist, sexist, homophobic, sexually explicit, abusive or otherwise objectionable for the following reason:
I wrote 'In this context 'Arab' is racist'
The BBC replied. Dear BBC Visitor. 'Further to your complaint about some of the content on a BBC website (reference number P39134442), we have decided that it does not contravene the House Rules and are going to leave it on site.'
I then wrote again in the same box 'Perhaps your moderators don't realise the significance of 'Arab' in this context. It is the same as saying THFC 1 Jews 0'
They then replied. Dear BBC Visitor. 'Further to your complaint about some of the content on a BBC web site (reference number P39134481), we have decided that it does indeed contravene the House Rules and have removed the offending material.'
Mr. B, Bottas has been close to Hamilton in both qualifying sessions so far, and both also had the same cars on the front row (ie all Mercedes or all Ferrari). We'll see what happens, of course, but I think his odds are out of kilter because his Bahrain performance was a bit iffy.
A good thing is that the season looks closely contested. For now, at least.
1. One way or another Brexit collapses under its own contradictions and thanks to the antics of its strongest adherents
2. Its legacy is a strongly pro-European sentiment with the memory of the fiasco we are living through providing antidote to previous media and political shyness to be actively positive about the EU
3. The public is bright enough to see that our political system is broken, pressure that leads to long overdue reform
4. Politicians are bright enough to see that their focus needs to change with concerns of 'left behind' people and communities given greater priority (political reform wil help as such areas are rarely marginals where political campaigns are currently focused)
These are in order of decreasing likelihood with the principal concern whether politicians will learn anything worthwhile with regard to 3. and 4. Experience - especially after the near global financial collapse where after initial shock, things then pretty much returned to how they were before - isn't encouraging.
1. One way or another Brexit collapses under its own contradictions and thanks to the antics of the majority of Remainer MPs
2. Its legacy is a strongly anti-European sentiment with the memory of the anti-democratic fiasco we are living through providing fuel to voter intent to be actively negative about the EU - which will carry the blame for EVERYTHING that goes wrong in our society
3. The public is bright enough to see that our political system is broken, but that pressure leads to MPs to become more distant, many refusing surgeries or public meetings for fear of unspecified "personal dangers"
4. Politicians are bright enough to ....dream on, friend.
Once Brexit is done and dusted, one way or another, we will still have all the same old problems and nothing will have changed, or at least not for the better.
4) The areas "left behind" by globalisation and the consumer culture, have no easy solutions. School agedchildren in nappies, unable to use cutlery are unlikely to be the knowledge workers of the ew Singapore in the drizzle.
However, the brexiters and remainers have created a perfect storm creating the deadlock we now see
I believe TM has done her best and will go down as the PM who agreed brexit that was sabotaged by her own ERG, who by their behaviour provided the perfect get out for labour mps
Over the last few days an element of ERG have gone rogue and displayed the worst excess of an obsessive cult attacking everyone who does not support their own prejeudices and using the most inflamatory language and abuse, not only to their leader, but the EU with the appalling impression it gives to ordinary citizens in Europe and indeed across the World
My wife and I have watched this in utter despair and hope that somehow a softer brexit or remain will emerge out of this national breakdown
TM must surely resign soon but neither my wife or I will remain in the party if Johnson is elected leader
The government must bear a heavy responsibility for the failure of MPs. It has deliberately made it as hard as possible for a consensus to emerge because that consensus did not look likely to be one it was comfortable with.
Am I the only one thinking that they are a better team without Kane? I suppose we will find out in the next two months.