Mr. Eagles, if they take that stringent a view, the ERG may (and this might shock you) end up denuding themselves of influence.
It seems, and I stand to be corrected, they probably have the numbers to make a slightly distant second the favourite, but not enough to thrust a struggling third into the top 2.
The HoC is a direct result of Tezza calling an election asking the public to back her vision of Brexit, so it's their fault...
The ABC blame game
Anyone but Cameron
The entertaining bit is that both main parties supported Brexit as part of their 2017 referendums so by right they should all be supporting May's deal.
So its remarkable that the only way May's deal being the only one on the table (and ignoring the fact it isn't a final deal just the overnight stay on the road we are on) is after a second referendum?
And of course any referendum will require a european election prelude as we will still be members come July...
Strikes me as too little, too late. But it's an interesting move nonetheless, and poses the question of where Europe sees the future launcher market heading ...
SpaceX have clearly proven that reusability is not only viable, but likely long term the lowest cost option for launch. I'll come back to this in a bit, work interrupting.
Germany's gain doesn't look that great when you look at how much France and Italy have lost...
And both France and Italy (especially Italy) are suffering from populist uprisings, whereas everyone in Germany seems just tickity-boo, thank you very much.
Germany's gain doesn't look that great when you look at how much France and Italy have lost...
And both France and Italy (especially Italy) are suffering from populist uprisings, whereas everyone in Germany seems just tickity-boo, thank you very much.
Though if you look at the comparator countries, Germany was measured against Japan, While most of the weighting for France, Italy and Spain was against the UK.
If the UK overperformed in the period of the New Labour years, that artificially downgrades the French, Italian, and Spanish figures. Similarly Japans lost decades boosts Germany's figures.
The methodology of the study assumes that as France, Spain and Italy economically performed similarly to us over the period 1980-2000, that would continue as the trend for the next two decades. I think that a rather peculiar assumption.
What happens if Parliament rejects the Deal, rejects No Deal, and rejects extending A50?
No Deal continues to slide down the mountain, its progress unimpeded by the infantile actions of the members in Parliament. That's what happens.
The only way No Deal doesn't happen is if it gets sprinkled in holy water, has a crucifix applied to its forehead and a stake driven through its heart. Currently MPs are still arguing if it is a vampire or a werewolf. "I'm sure silver bullets will do the trick. I read that in a book somewhere...."
The default result of both options in the extension vote is to leave with No Deal. The unwritten question is almost
Do you want to leave on March 29th without a deal or leave on June 29th without a deal?
I suppose one can take different views: (1) The EU has blinked this time, and will agree to an extension even if there's no progress towards a political consensus in the UK. Therefore the EU will carry on blinking every time we come to a deadline, and the decision will carry on being put off to avoid the UK leaving without a deal. (2) The EU is willing to agree to a short one-off extension, but won't go any further than that. (3) The EU won't agree to any extension unless a consensus within the UK has already been achieved.
The betting markets seem close to agreeing on (1) at the moment, with the implied probability of leaving with No Deal in a month's time somewhere near 10%.
That could equate to a 5% probability that the UK won't ask for an extension, and a 5% probability that if the UK asks for an extension the EU won't agree to one.
Strikes me as too little, too late. But it's an interesting move nonetheless, and poses the question of where Europe sees the future launcher market heading ...
According to the article, " unlikely to debut before 2028 or 2030..." And I note on the wikipedia page, the engine is currently only designed for the intention of reuse 3-5 times. I doubt they are going to be cost competitive with whatever SpaceX is doing in a decade's time, but it certainly makes sense to preserve an independent launch capability and emulating them is for now the only way to go.
Everyone wants to blame someone else for the end result....
While I hate the idea of a referendum it seems its the only way out of this mess.
The European Elections that we can't avoid due to going beyond July will be fun....
I've been thinking this for a while now.
If we end up in an R2 situation it is far better for May to be seen fighting against it initially, then fighting for 'no deal' to be an option, then fighting against Labours deal being the option on the ballot.
If she can 'lose' all 3 she will come out of this looking like a hero to most of the electorate.
With a basic salary package some way north of £100k, plus all the extra responsibility, redundancy etc payments and gewgaws, that claim is a bit of a stretch, John.
An MP's basic salary is £77,379. They do get expenses on top of that but expenses are not additional remuneration. Most do not get any payments for additional responsibilities.
You misquote me. I said basic salary *package*, which includes the personal perks.
Without needing to go into some of the smaller ones or more inchoate ones, we have:
Basic salary - 77,379 . Now, just that basic salary with nothing else puts your basic MP in the top 5%. To suggest that being in the top 5% of the population is "underpaid" when expenses include a pile of things most of us pay for ourselves (eg travel?) is ludicrous to me.
But without looking very hard we also have:
Resettlement allowance at end = £6614 / yr - 1 month/yr. First 30k tax iirc. Though these are always changing.
Employer Pension Contributions = £10319 - 13% of salary the last time I looked. And the actual benefit is worth several times that compared to what most of the population get for their pension contributions).
Just those puts it into "some way north of 100k", without getting into a range of other things that are in the package (subsidised meals, heavily subsidised pied-a-terre, parking in Central London for many, office facilities 24/7 in London, opportunities for other work due to position, iirc lifetime access to the Parliamentary Estate, and so on).
MPs are a lot of good and bad things; underpaid is not one of them.
To wrap up, look at the range across Europe; ours are about average with their peers.
What happens if Parliament rejects the Deal, rejects No Deal, and rejects extending A50?
No Deal continues to slide down the mountain, its progress unimpeded by the infantile actions of the members in Parliament. That's what happens.
The only way No Deal doesn't happen is if it gets sprinkled in holy water, has a crucifix applied to its forehead and a stake driven through its heart. Currently MPs are still arguing if it is a vampire or a werewolf. "I'm sure silver bullets will do the trick. I read that in a book somewhere...."
Or, alternatively, there will be more votes later in March.
That said, if the Commons votes against the Deal and No Deal, I think it's unlikely that it would also vote against an extension? Why would it?
Because Westminster is stacked to the rafters with fuckwits?
Comments
I see Williams aren't doing too badly today, and have a healthy haul of laps, whilst McLaren's having more problems.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/formula1/47368688
It seems, and I stand to be corrected, they probably have the numbers to make a slightly distant second the favourite, but not enough to thrust a struggling third into the top 2.
So its remarkable that the only way May's deal being the only one on the table (and ignoring the fact it isn't a final deal just the overnight stay on the road we are on) is after a second referendum?
And of course any referendum will require a european election prelude as we will still be members come July...
I do wonder what's going on with McLaren. It's not so long ago they had race-winning cars. Honda didn't help but that's far from the whole story.
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1100412436660707328
Edited extra bit: although nailing down some numbers is a good thing.
Maybe there's a connection? <-- sarcasm.
That's basically where Italy's economic growth has gone, over the past 20 years.
Edit: actually, only the Netherlands is a big winner, and Greece is (surprisingly) a small loser.
https://www.cep.eu/fileadmin/user_upload/cep.eu/Studien/20_Jahre_Euro_-_Gewinner_und_Verlierer/cepStudy_20_years_Euro_-_Winners_and_Losers.pdf
If the UK overperformed in the period of the New Labour years, that artificially downgrades the French, Italian, and Spanish figures. Similarly Japans lost decades boosts Germany's figures.
The methodology of the study assumes that as France, Spain and Italy economically performed similarly to us over the period 1980-2000, that would continue as the trend for the next two decades. I think that a rather peculiar assumption.
https://www.cep.eu/en/eu-topics/details/cep/20-years-of-the-euro-winners-and-losers.html
(1) The EU has blinked this time, and will agree to an extension even if there's no progress towards a political consensus in the UK. Therefore the EU will carry on blinking every time we come to a deadline, and the decision will carry on being put off to avoid the UK leaving without a deal.
(2) The EU is willing to agree to a short one-off extension, but won't go any further than that.
(3) The EU won't agree to any extension unless a consensus within the UK has already been achieved.
The betting markets seem close to agreeing on (1) at the moment, with the implied probability of leaving with No Deal in a month's time somewhere near 10%.
That could equate to a 5% probability that the UK won't ask for an extension, and a 5% probability that if the UK asks for an extension the EU won't agree to one.
And I note on the wikipedia page, the engine is currently only designed for the intention of reuse 3-5 times.
I doubt they are going to be cost competitive with whatever SpaceX is doing in a decade's time, but it certainly makes sense to preserve an independent launch capability and emulating them is for now the only way to go.
I've been thinking this for a while now.
If we end up in an R2 situation it is far better for May to be seen fighting against it initially, then fighting for 'no deal' to be an option, then fighting against Labours deal being the option on the ballot.
If she can 'lose' all 3 she will come out of this looking like a hero to most of the electorate.
It would be a remarkable trick.
(I expect some solicitor or other will be along shortly, to mock me for thinking I know better than Laura K when the Ides of March are...)
Without needing to go into some of the smaller ones or more inchoate ones, we have:
Basic salary - 77,379 . Now, just that basic salary with nothing else puts your basic MP in the top 5%. To suggest that being in the top 5% of the population is "underpaid" when expenses include a pile of things most of us pay for ourselves (eg travel?) is ludicrous to me.
But without looking very hard we also have:
Resettlement allowance at end = £6614 / yr - 1 month/yr. First 30k tax iirc. Though these are always changing.
Employer Pension Contributions = £10319 - 13% of salary the last time I looked. And the actual benefit is worth several times that compared to what most of the population get for their pension contributions).
Just those puts it into "some way north of 100k", without getting into a range of other things that are in the package (subsidised meals, heavily subsidised pied-a-terre, parking in Central London for many, office facilities 24/7 in London, opportunities for other work due to position, iirc lifetime access to the Parliamentary Estate, and so on).
MPs are a lot of good and bad things; underpaid is not one of them.
To wrap up, look at the range across Europe; ours are about average with their peers.
I despair. I really do.