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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If it’s any consolation to LAB – the last CON 10%+ leads were
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If it’s any consolation to LAB – the last CON 10%+ leads were in the days before GE2017 – and we know what happened then
The overnight YouGov poll giving the Conservatives an 11% lead was the worst for LAB since the 2017 general election. I like to look at polls in context which is why above there there is the full Wikipedia list of all GB voting intention polls this year.
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Who is actually running Labour this morning?
Plus there are plenty of folk in 2017 who lent their vote to Labour. Before it was exposed as a cesspit of anti-semitism. OGH, for exapmle. (Although to be fair, Corbyn's strong showing on the back of borrowed votes has emboldened these leftist anti-semites to crawl out the woodwork.)
Not least because people being asked now know how they voted last time, whereas when they were asked in 2017 they didn't yet know how the campaign would unfold. People don't re-set to how they were thinking before an election once polls close.
Let's hope it's the sane brigade rather than the anti-Semites and those who excuse the anti-Semites ...
Disgraced MP Fiona Onasanya has been released from prison less than four weeks after she was convicted of lying to police over a speeding ticket.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-47369669
Being a British politician at national level today is less consequential and worse in terms of opportunity cost than at any time in the last 300 years. It’s no surprise that the calibre of MPs and ministers is in decline.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-47360722
That said, it is hard to credit the lack of professionalism and even intellectual curiosity to produce recent gaffes like: not knowing Dover is on the way to France; thinking Slovenia was run from Moscow; not knowing about Nationalists and Loyalists in Northern Ireland.
And that is betting without those who've spent decades campaigning to leave the EU without ever wondering what life outside should look like.
What a shower!
And yet Labour have done so by supporting REF2 without a GE. Instead of making sure that the only way to get another referendum is via a Labour government, this opens up the possibility of TM being forced into it and able to stay on, blaming the 'betrayal' of REF1 on the opposition.
Crazy politics from Labour, albeit not a surprise. Why have they done it? Why are they acting in the national interest rather than for narrow partisan advantage? The answer, needless to say, is that Jeremy has been bullied into it. No party leader, not even Britain's finest, puts the national interest over their own if they can possibly help it. He has done this to stem rebellion amongst the group of Labour MPs for whom remaining in the EU is far more important than replacing a Tory government with a Labour one. The size of this group is JC's biggest problem. Far bigger than his negative poll ratings. He needs to do something about it.
Maybe she'll join the TIGs first.....
This is strange:
She was found guilty of perverting the course of justice in December.
The solicitor general reviewed the sentence after a complaint it was too lenient, but found it was not.
The MP was found guilty of lying to police about a speeding ticket and handed a three-month jail term at the Old Bailey in January.
The attorney general's office confirmed it would be reviewing the case after it "received a request for the case of Fiona Onasanya to be considered under the unduly lenient sentence scheme".
I thought reviews were limited to the likes of rape and murder.
I would expect it to be rejected on the basis of "procedure does not apply". Can we see the evaluation report?
Anyone looking for a use for the internet of things could note foreign railways (and perhaps our own) using internet connected remote sensors to monitor trains and rail infrastructure.
https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1100321393206534144
Let's take two fantastic candidates:
Public School + Oxbridge + lawyer = high opportunity cost
Bog standard comp + technical college or apprenticeship + Union convener = low opportunity cost
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/25/us/politics/andrew-goldstein-mueller-investigation.html
“He was very much measure 10 times, cut once,” said Kan M. Nawaday, a prosecutor who worked with Mr. Goldstein in the corruption unit. “Nine times out of 10, you do a lot of investigation, and you realize the conduct is pretty terrible and foul. But since you’re here to do justice, it isn’t a crime, and you walk away.”…
…Now that Mr. Mueller’s work could soon be public, Mr. Goldstein’s record, Mr. Bharara said, is a reminder of what the investigation’s limits might be.
“You want to have people who have had experience not only bringing high-profile cases, but in walking away from them because it’s the right thing to do,” he said. “The fact that you have a person who’s comfortable saying there’s nothing here, even though there’s a lot of clamor for it, is exactly the kind of person you want.”
Game over for the ERG .
Imagine you're a Conservative MP who voted Remain in the referendum and reluctantly voted for the deal. In fact, let's put some names on this - Paul Masterton and Antoinette Sandbach, for example. You did your duty in January. You made it clear that you were doing this to honour the referendum mandate. But your ERG colleagues decided to shoot the whole thing down.
You now have a new option - to approve the deal, contingent on a referendum being held to ratify it. If that's what it takes to get this whole process over the line, might you take it?
I think if I were them I might.
Again.
It's not that long ago we had a financial crisis and the worst recession in British history.
And her good name has probably gone for ever. Political career, legal career etc.
A solicitor who embarked on a foul-mouthed email tirade against the Solicitors Regulation Authority, former colleagues and third parties has been banned from the legal profession.
Luke Stephen Venton, 39, also ran up three separate convictions from 2014 to 2017 for drink-driving, possession of cannabis and possession of a knife in a public place. He was alleged to have failed to notify the SRA about the first two of these convictions. He has not worked as a solicitor since November 2015.
The Solicitors Disciplinary Tribunal heard Venton responded to one SRA notification of a fine and rebuke that the regulator could ‘stick your adjudication invoice up you’re [sic] a**e you f*****g w****r’.
Asked to explain his response and language, he emailed the SRA supervisor and stated: ‘Here’s another one for you, you f*****g bent c**t(s). The SRA will never regulate me and that is it.’ Venton then threatened to bin any future adjudication invoice before signing off: ‘F*****g w****r – f**k off! Regards, Luke.’
The SRA opted on this occasion to take no further action, but emails continued with the regulator either the main recipient or copied into correspondence with other solicitors and third parties.
https://www.lawgazette.co.uk/news/sweary-solicitor-who-told-the-sra-you-will-never-regulate-me-is-struck-off/5068373.article
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r3BO6GP9NMY
Mann and the rest need to stop peddling nonsense . Even in Leave Labour seats a majority of Labour voters voted to Remain .
And Fiona Onsanya serves about the same proportion of her sentence behind bars as Chris Huhne and Vicky Price. Two months out of eight..
Cambridge educated Yorkshireman, btw.
Records are made to be broken...
Mann is a thickie
As it was prior to the last election.
I believe I introduced (or stole) the phrase “‘mile wide and inch deep” to describe the Maymania of that period.
Both parties have been held in place - like two corpses leaning against each other - by the stasis introduced by Brexit.
If, for example, Corbyn stood down and was replaced by someone sentient - say, Thornberry, May and the Tories would be crushed.
https://twitter.com/sra_solicitors/status/1100338565073063937
Meanwhile, she’s earned £6k while she’s been in prison, hope every journalist she speaks to asks her if she’s donating it to a road safety charity.
This is false, as there are a lot of public school educated numpties stinking out the benches at Westminster.
The right equation is:
Talented, smart person regardless of background = high opportunity cost.
Absolute dunce who couldn’t start a fire in a firecracker factory = low opportunity cost.
And of course Charles's son eventually pardoned the Earl of Strafford and his property and lands were restored to his heirs - no doubt on condition they were rented out forever more on the 17th century equivalent of air bnb!
It is intolerable that she is allowed to return to Parliament and vote on weighty matters. We need to change the law so such things are never allowed to happen again.
Certainly they can't win one if there isn't one.
Were the recall legislation not to exist I could understand your argument but with it in place, there are enough legal means within the law for an MP to be removed should the people the MP represents wish to have a replacement representative.
Mind you, if we are going to hark back to the 1640s, perhaps we should think of pb as the equivalent of the Putney Debates.
So, it’s unlikely that lightning will strike twice for him again.
https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1100343318129659904
Personally I would make that a lifelong ban from holding any elected office - if you break the law (and are sentenced to prison time) whilst being a sitting MP, you have no right to ever sit in Parliament again.
And yes, I would extend that members of the Lords.
A conviction prior to standing for Parliament is a different matter - but it must be declared on all relevant election literature.
We should hold elected representatives to a higher standard. We are never going to have a political cohort free from any blemish - but it is still absolutely wrong that this convicted liar is allowed to sit as MP for any constituency.
If the former goes and the later fades away, everything is up for grabs, and the Conservatives could also sink to 30%.
In both cases, division of the opinion in the party reflected divisions of opinion within the country.
It wasn’t just to appease the unique peculiarities and idiosyncrasies of the more eccentric members who happened to populate the benches in the Commons at the time.
Take Blaenau Gwent. Labour vote share in 2017 was 58 per cent. Tory and UKIP vote share was 17.8 per cent.
Leave won with 62 per cent of the vote.
A majority of the Leave vote must have come from parties other than Tory and UKIP.
There are just not enough Tory/UKIP voters in Blaenau Gwent to make up the enormous Leave vote..
I think it should be a form of strict liability. Prison time for a crime committed whilst a sitting MP results in immediate loss of seat. The 1 year rule for automatic forfeiture of the seat is unacceptable.
And if there is an appeal, it should be expedited so that Parliament can be rid of an convicted criminal as quickly as possible.
We need to clean up politics as much as we can. Allowing someone who has perverted the course of justice (whilst also being an officer of the court) to participate in Parliament is a just not acceptable.
May needs every single vote. She won’t get them.
That said if they have not or if there is some clever ruse to make it problematic then Costa is absolutely right.
Are people who aren't Labour voters unpersons?
Labour Friends of Corbyn