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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Back with Brexit punters make it just a 20% chance that there’

SystemSystem Posts: 12,172
edited February 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Back with Brexit punters make it just a 20% chance that there’ll be a no deal UK exit by March 30th

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Comments

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    First. Like May. Who has promised to go on and on and on...
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    First and also presently last.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    dixiedean said:

    First. Like May. Who has promised to go on and on and on...

    The scary thing is, for some of us at any rate, it is probably what we deserve.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    And on and on and on after Brexit. Bravely pushing forward her domestic agenda of er, delay, obfuscation and inactivity.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,618
    Punters, huh? What do they know?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    viewcode said:

    kle4 said:

    ...it is time for rebels to call her out on that and take action, otherwise they truly are the dumbest bunch of legislators in existence....

    I think I see the flaw in this cunning plan... :(
    I was trying to give them at least an ounce of credit.
    RobD said:
    It's just another in a long line of uber smug commentary that tries to suggest no countries every have deep divisive political issues they need to work out, and that it won't be pretty while it happens. We're going through some awful stuff right now, many would say unnecessarily, but this stuff pretending that political chaos is the worst thing to ever happen is just tiresome blather.

    And believe me, I know some tiresome blather, it is my stock in trade.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,618
    kle4 said:

    is just tiresome blather.

    And believe me, I know some tiresome blather, it is my stock in trade.

    Do you envisage delays in tiresome blather getting through at the ports, if we No Deal Brexit?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    kle4 said:

    viewcode said:

    kle4 said:

    ...it is time for rebels to call her out on that and take action, otherwise they truly are the dumbest bunch of legislators in existence....

    I think I see the flaw in this cunning plan... :(
    I was trying to give them at least an ounce of credit.
    RobD said:
    It's just another in a long line of uber smug commentary that tries to suggest no countries every have deep divisive political issues they need to work out, and that it won't be pretty while it happens. We're going through some awful stuff right now, many would say unnecessarily, but this stuff pretending that political chaos is the worst thing to ever happen is just tiresome blather.

    And believe me, I know some tiresome blather, it is my stock in trade.
    Obvious point, but it's a bit rich for an American to write off a whole country as a basket case due to their dysfunctional politics...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    kle4 said:

    is just tiresome blather.

    And believe me, I know some tiresome blather, it is my stock in trade.

    Do you envisage delays in tiresome blather getting through at the ports, if we No Deal Brexit?
    Perhaps, but we are very self sufficient in that area.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,618
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    is just tiresome blather.

    And believe me, I know some tiresome blather, it is my stock in trade.

    Do you envisage delays in tiresome blather getting through at the ports, if we No Deal Brexit?
    Perhaps, but we are very self sufficient in that area.
    I was wondering if the House of Commons has spent the last few months building signficant stockpiles.

    "It's OK Amber, we've now got enough tiresome blather to last us for years....."
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Are we expecting any defections tomorrow?
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:

    viewcode said:

    kle4 said:

    ...it is time for rebels to call her out on that and take action, otherwise they truly are the dumbest bunch of legislators in existence....

    I think I see the flaw in this cunning plan... :(
    I was trying to give them at least an ounce of credit.
    RobD said:
    It's just another in a long line of uber smug commentary that tries to suggest no countries every have deep divisive political issues they need to work out, and that it won't be pretty while it happens. We're going through some awful stuff right now, many would say unnecessarily, but this stuff pretending that political chaos is the worst thing to ever happen is just tiresome blather.

    And believe me, I know some tiresome blather, it is my stock in trade.
    Obvious point, but it's a bit rich for an American to write off a whole country as a basket case due to their dysfunctional politics...
    It is the new version of the special relationship, we look down on the other to make ourselves feel better.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,618
    AndyJS said:

    Are we expecting any defections tomorrow?

    You think some of the Tiggers have had enough? :)
  • Time to go

    Have a good nights rest folks

    Good night
  • Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:

    viewcode said:

    kle4 said:

    ...it is time for rebels to call her out on that and take action, otherwise they truly are the dumbest bunch of legislators in existence....

    I think I see the flaw in this cunning plan... :(
    I was trying to give them at least an ounce of credit.
    RobD said:
    It's just another in a long line of uber smug commentary that tries to suggest no countries every have deep divisive political issues they need to work out, and that it won't be pretty while it happens. We're going through some awful stuff right now, many would say unnecessarily, but this stuff pretending that political chaos is the worst thing to ever happen is just tiresome blather.

    And believe me, I know some tiresome blather, it is my stock in trade.
    Obvious point, but it's a bit rich for an American to write off a whole country as a basket case due to their dysfunctional politics...
    Not the least irritating aspect of Brexit was that it robbed us of the right to snigger at Americans for electing Trump.
  • dotsdots Posts: 615
    May appeared to be trying to pot the black?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,253

    Not the least irritating aspect of Brexit was that it robbed us of the right to snigger at Americans for electing Trump.

    Well it makes it harder this is true - but I find that I can still just about manage it.
  • dotsdots Posts: 615
    dots said:

    May appeared to be trying to pot the black?

    Who was the minion trying to help her cue, was it Robbins?
  • dotsdots Posts: 615

    Time to go

    Have a good nights rest folks

    Good night

    Plenty of rest ahead of next months GE
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,136

    Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:

    viewcode said:

    kle4 said:

    ...it is time for rebels to call her out on that and take action, otherwise they truly are the dumbest bunch of legislators in existence....

    I think I see the flaw in this cunning plan... :(
    I was trying to give them at least an ounce of credit.
    RobD said:
    It's just another in a long line of uber smug commentary that tries to suggest no countries every have deep divisive political issues they need to work out, and that it won't be pretty while it happens. We're going through some awful stuff right now, many would say unnecessarily, but this stuff pretending that political chaos is the worst thing to ever happen is just tiresome blather.

    And believe me, I know some tiresome blather, it is my stock in trade.
    Obvious point, but it's a bit rich for an American to write off a whole country as a basket case due to their dysfunctional politics...
    It is the new version of the special relationship, we look down on the other to make ourselves feel better.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-02-21/do-trump-and-brexit-herald-the-end-of-the-anglosphere
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    dots said:

    Time to go

    Have a good nights rest folks

    Good night

    Plenty of rest ahead of next months GE
    Lord save us from that.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    dots said:

    Time to go

    Have a good nights rest folks

    Good night

    Plenty of rest ahead of next months GE
    Too late now for a General Election in March.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    justin124 said:

    dots said:

    Time to go

    Have a good nights rest folks

    Good night

    Plenty of rest ahead of next months GE
    Too late now for a General Election in March.
    There's always April.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    AndyJS said:

    justin124 said:

    dots said:

    Time to go

    Have a good nights rest folks

    Good night

    Plenty of rest ahead of next months GE
    Too late now for a General Election in March.
    There's always April.
    On this occasion, actually, there might not be.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    I would be surprised to see an election held before 2nd May - Local Election day.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    viewcode said:

    Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:

    viewcode said:

    kle4 said:

    ...it is time for rebels to call her out on that and take action, otherwise they truly are the dumbest bunch of legislators in existence....

    I think I see the flaw in this cunning plan... :(
    I was trying to give them at least an ounce of credit.
    RobD said:
    It's just another in a long line of uber smug commentary that tries to suggest no countries every have deep divisive political issues they need to work out, and that it won't be pretty while it happens. We're going through some awful stuff right now, many would say unnecessarily, but this stuff pretending that political chaos is the worst thing to ever happen is just tiresome blather.

    And believe me, I know some tiresome blather, it is my stock in trade.
    Obvious point, but it's a bit rich for an American to write off a whole country as a basket case due to their dysfunctional politics...
    It is the new version of the special relationship, we look down on the other to make ourselves feel better.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-02-21/do-trump-and-brexit-herald-the-end-of-the-anglosphere
    That's a pretty good article.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,136
    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:

    viewcode said:

    kle4 said:

    ...it is time for rebels to call her out on that and take action, otherwise they truly are the dumbest bunch of legislators in existence....

    I think I see the flaw in this cunning plan... :(
    I was trying to give them at least an ounce of credit.
    RobD said:
    It's just another in a long line of uber smug commentary that tries to suggest no countries every have deep divisive political issues they need to work out, and that it won't be pretty while it happens. We're going through some awful stuff right now, many would say unnecessarily, but this stuff pretending that political chaos is the worst thing to ever happen is just tiresome blather.

    And believe me, I know some tiresome blather, it is my stock in trade.
    Obvious point, but it's a bit rich for an American to write off a whole country as a basket case due to their dysfunctional politics...
    It is the new version of the special relationship, we look down on the other to make ourselves feel better.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-02-21/do-trump-and-brexit-herald-the-end-of-the-anglosphere
    That's a pretty good article...
    ...and a bit worrying... :(

  • Kind of disturbing that the markets are still assigning a 20% chance to No Deal - I guess that's 1% for the government doing it on purpose, and 19% for a whacky timezone-related mix-up.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    "https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-02-21/do-trump-and-brexit-herald-the-end-of-the-anglosphere

    That's a pretty good article...

    ...and a bit worrying... :"

    Who can name the Chinese president - everyone knows Trump and our Royal Family.

    Who won the Chinese equivalent of the Oscars - anyone outside China know or care.

    Where do people want to visit or work - Beijing or London and New York. And if they don't want to migrate to the US or UK its Canada or Austraia.

    We retain UN security council seats - with our block of two blocking vote.

    Trump and Brexit are temporary phenomenons- the English language and the Anglosphere live on.

    In the end its just another article written by another 'citizen of nowhere' who doesn't approve of how the 'little people' voted.

    And in the end why does it matter anyway - we have enough issues and problems (which drove Brexit and Trump) without thinking its our endless role to solve the world's problems!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,725
    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:

    viewcode said:

    kle4 said:

    ...it is time for rebels to call her out on that and take action, otherwise they truly are the dumbest bunch of legislators in existence....

    I think I see the flaw in this cunning plan... :(
    I was trying to give them at least an ounce of credit.
    RobD said:
    It's just another in a long line of uber smug commentary that tries to suggest no countries every have deep divisive political issues they need to work out, and that it won't be pretty while it happens. We're going through some awful stuff right now, many would say unnecessarily, but this stuff pretending that political chaos is the worst thing to ever happen is just tiresome blather.

    And believe me, I know some tiresome blather, it is my stock in trade.
    Obvious point, but it's a bit rich for an American to write off a whole country as a basket case due to their dysfunctional politics...
    It is the new version of the special relationship, we look down on the other to make ourselves feel better.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-02-21/do-trump-and-brexit-herald-the-end-of-the-anglosphere
    That's a pretty good article.
    It's telling that his examples of influence of the "Anglosphere", which he defines as Britain and America, are all American. The misguided perception that Thatcher was a world leader on a par with Reagan and Gorbachev and above other European leaders seems to have a lot to do with why that generation came to believe the UK didn't need the EU.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:

    viewcode said:

    kle4 said:

    ...it is time for rebels to call her out on that and take action, otherwise they truly are the dumbest bunch of legislators in existence....

    I think I see the flaw in this cunning plan... :(
    I was trying to give them at least an ounce of credit.
    RobD said:
    It's just another in a long line of uber smug commentary that tries to suggest no countries every have deep divisive political issues they need to work out, and that it won't be pretty while it happens. We're going through some awful stuff right now, many would say unnecessarily, but this stuff pretending that political chaos is the worst thing to ever happen is just tiresome blather.

    And believe me, I know some tiresome blather, it is my stock in trade.
    Obvious point, but it's a bit rich for an American to write off a whole country as a basket case due to their dysfunctional politics...
    It is the new version of the special relationship, we look down on the other to make ourselves feel better.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-02-21/do-trump-and-brexit-herald-the-end-of-the-anglosphere
    That's a pretty good article.
    It's telling that his examples of influence of the "Anglosphere", which he defines as Britain and America, are all American. The misguided perception that Thatcher was a world leader on a par with Reagan and Gorbachev and above other European leaders seems to have a lot to do with why that generation came to believe the UK didn't need the EU.
    As ever with you, it all comes down to the EU. :p
  • viewcode said:

    Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:

    viewcode said:

    kle4 said:

    ...it is time for rebels to call her out on that and take action, otherwise they truly are the dumbest bunch of legislators in existence....

    I think I see the flaw in this cunning plan... :(
    I was trying to give them at least an ounce of credit.
    RobD said:
    It's just another in a long line of uber smug commentary that tries to suggest no countries every have deep divisive political issues they need to work out, and that it won't be pretty while it happens. We're going through some awful stuff right now, many would say unnecessarily, but this stuff pretending that political chaos is the worst thing to ever happen is just tiresome blather.

    And believe me, I know some tiresome blather, it is my stock in trade.
    Obvious point, but it's a bit rich for an American to write off a whole country as a basket case due to their dysfunctional politics...
    It is the new version of the special relationship, we look down on the other to make ourselves feel better.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-02-21/do-trump-and-brexit-herald-the-end-of-the-anglosphere
    Good article (and not the usual "woe is me how dare the plebs turn their back on the EU") - but he does ignore the fact that non-EU immigration into the UK is rising (so much for turning our back on the world and hating Johnny Foreigner - and May (that well known xenophobe) has just said 'immigration is good - we just need control') - and the actual relationship between the two countries is not bad, despite the distraction in the British government and the loony tunes at the top of the US one.

    Lets not forget in the sixties some in the Tory party were still smarting over the "Suez betrayal" (sic) and LBJ was livid with Wilson for refusing to join in Vietnam. The US in the world's undisputed military power - and despite Brexit the UK continues to top Global Soft Power rankings.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,136
    brendan16 said:

    Who can name the Chinese president

    One and a half-billion Chinese
    brendan16 said:

    Who won the Chinese equivalent of the Oscars - anyone outside China know or care.

    Who is going to win the American version of the Oscars? WITHOUT GOOGLING, tell me who's up for best supporting actress.
    brendan16 said:

    Where do people want to visit or work - Beijing or London and New York.

    Shanghai
    brendan16 said:

    In the end its just another article written by another 'citizen of nowhere' who doesn't approve of how the 'little people' voted.

    In Goodwin's three tribes of Leavers, two of them (retirees and wealthy social conservatives) are not poor nor little people and one of them (the latter) are mostly the "citizens of nowhere" you describe. Leave discourse can accurately be described as very wealthy people living abroad (or with non-British passports) telling British JAMs that they don't understand poor British people like they do.
    brendan16 said:

    And in the end why does it matter anyway - we have enough issues and problems (which drove Brexit and Trump) without thinking its our endless role to solve the world's problems!

    I agree that it is not our role to solve the world's problems. I further think it is our role to solve our own problems. Unfortunately people seem to have settled for "failing and blaming" instead of actually solving things

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,136
    brendan16 said:

    Where do people want to visit or work - Beijing or London and New York.


  • brendan16 said:



    Who can name the Chinese president - everyone knows Trump and our Royal Family.

    Who won the Chinese equivalent of the Oscars - anyone outside China know or care.

    Where do people want to visit or work - Beijing or London and New York. And if they don't want to migrate to the US or UK its Canada or Austraia.

    We retain UN security council seats - with our block of two blocking vote.

    You're looking at the trailing indicators not the leading indicators. Cultural power tends to lag economic power, sometimes by quite a long time. Likewise institutional power, eg the UN Security Council is the way it is because of economic and military power in 1946. But they don't lag forever; For example, if the Security Council gets too out of sync with the actual defacto power on the ground, it'll just end up being ignored.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited February 2019
    brendan16 said:

    In the end its just another article written by another 'citizen of nowhere' who doesn't approve of how the 'little people' voted.

    That's certainly the impression he gave in a talk at a College Gaudy. Pompous with it - and by that stage I was, shall we say, in a forgiving frame of mind.....(Inevitably Grieve was there too)

    Economist Editor in Chief for 9 years

    However, I do think the article itself is reasonable - who can deny that the British government is distracted, or the US Head of State deranged?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,725

    brendan16 said:



    Who can name the Chinese president - everyone knows Trump and our Royal Family.

    Who won the Chinese equivalent of the Oscars - anyone outside China know or care.

    Where do people want to visit or work - Beijing or London and New York. And if they don't want to migrate to the US or UK its Canada or Austraia.

    We retain UN security council seats - with our block of two blocking vote.

    You're looking at the trailing indicators not the leading indicators. Cultural power tends to lag economic power, sometimes by quite a long time. Likewise institutional power, eg the UN Security Council is the way it is because of economic and military power in 1946. But they don't lag forever; For example, if the Security Council gets too out of sync with the actual defacto power on the ground, it'll just end up being ignored.
    "We're still big; it's just the Security Council that got smaller."
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,136

    ...a talk at a College Gaudy...

    At the risk of sounding stupid, what is a College Gaudy?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,136
    viewcode said:

    ...a talk at a College Gaudy...

    At the risk of sounding stupid, what is a College Gaudy?
    It's OK, ignore me. I googled it. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaudy
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,752
    edited February 2019
    viewcode said:

    ...a talk at a College Gaudy...

    At the risk of sounding stupid, what is a College Gaudy?
    Something in Lord Peter Wimsey, I think.
  • viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    ...a talk at a College Gaudy...

    At the risk of sounding stupid, what is a College Gaudy?
    It's OK, ignore me. I googled it. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaudy
    Surely you've heard of this?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaudy_Night
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,725
    Test your likelihood to support Remain, May's Deal or No Deal:

    https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/02/22/profiles-of-a-divided-country
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,752

    Kind of disturbing that the markets are still assigning a 20% chance to No Deal - I guess that's 1% for the government doing it on purpose, and 19% for a whacky timezone-related mix-up.

    I think it's more that the Commons has rejected the Deal that's available by a huge majority, and that no better plan has been suggested, and that everyone knows that, and that perhaps someone (it only needs to be one) will think that it's worth giving the UK a definite deadline of 29 March to decide what they want to do. And then if they do that, we still may not be able to decide. And then we leave with No Deal. I think that's probably the idea.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,752

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    ...a talk at a College Gaudy...

    At the risk of sounding stupid, what is a College Gaudy?
    It's OK, ignore me. I googled it. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaudy
    Surely you've heard of this?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaudy_Night
    The TV adaptation is available on YouTube and though the novel is a bit long it's nowhere near as bad as Wikipedia makes it sound:
    "Although no murder occurs in Gaudy Night, it includes a great deal of suspense and psychological thrills. The narrative is interwoven with a love story and an examination of women's struggles to enlarge their roles and achieve some independence within the social climate of 1930s England, and the novel has been described as "the first feminist mystery novel"."
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,136

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    ...a talk at a College Gaudy...

    At the risk of sounding stupid, what is a College Gaudy?
    It's OK, ignore me. I googled it. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaudy
    Surely you've heard of this?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaudy_Night
    I am not as knowledgeable about Lord Peter Wimsey as I should be... :(
  • viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    ...a talk at a College Gaudy...

    At the risk of sounding stupid, what is a College Gaudy?
    It's OK, ignore me. I googled it. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaudy
    Surely you've heard of this?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaudy_Night
    I am not as knowledgeable about Lord Peter Wimsey as I should be... :(
    Dorothy L Sayers is a cracking writer - as Chris writes the novels can go on a bit - and she had trouble with the censors from her first novel (how would you tell from a body that a Jewish financier wasn't Jewish - "dirt under the finger nails" - yeah, right....) and some are extremely violent (Documents in the Case description of death from poisoning is harrowing).....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    edited February 2019
    Chris said:

    Kind of disturbing that the markets are still assigning a 20% chance to No Deal - I guess that's 1% for the government doing it on purpose, and 19% for a whacky timezone-related mix-up.

    I think it's more that the Commons has rejected the Deal that's available by a huge majority, and that no better plan has been suggested, and that everyone knows that, and that perhaps someone (it only needs to be one) will think that it's worth giving the UK a definite deadline of 29 March to decide what they want to do. And then if they do that, we still may not be able to decide. And then we leave with No Deal. I think that's probably the idea.
    And also a lag from the weight of money wagered previously; not all punters manage their bets once placed.

    It's also possible some people are using the bet as some sort of insurance.
  • Oscars: hat-tip to Barnesian for Green Book.
    My outsider bets on Bohemian Rhapsody and Spike Lee flopped: right films; wrong Oscars.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,618

    Oscars: hat-tip to Barnesian for Green Book.
    My outsider bets on Bohemian Rhapsody and Spike Lee flopped: right films; wrong Oscars.

    Should have listened to my neighbours - Green Book was their favourite film of the bunch. They are both just either side of 90, so they closely represent the Oscar voter demographic!

    Well done Olivia, but if anyone hasn't seen The Wife - do so, then decide if she isn't a teeny bit fortunate today. Glenn Close must have shot God's dog. 7 noms, 7 times no Oscar.

    Sandy Powell again missing out on costume for having two films nominated that split her vote. That said, Black Panther was a good winner as it did have a great look. The Lady Wifi knows the guy in London that provided all the genuine African tribal incidentals - beads and bangles and head-pieces and necklaces. This place has room after room after room after room of stuff - the Black Panther people went through it and hired many of the best items.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,261

    Oscars: hat-tip to Barnesian for Green Book.
    My outsider bets on Bohemian Rhapsody and Spike Lee flopped: right films; wrong Oscars.

    Modestly buffs nails for backing Free Solo.

  • Oscars: hat-tip to Barnesian for Green Book.
    My outsider bets on Bohemian Rhapsody and Spike Lee flopped: right films; wrong Oscars.

    Should have listened to my neighbours - Green Book was their favourite film of the bunch. They are both just either side of 90, so they closely represent the Oscar voter demographic!

    Well done Olivia, but if anyone hasn't seen The Wife - do so, then decide if she isn't a teeny bit fortunate today. Glenn Close must have shot God's dog. 7 noms, 7 times no Oscar.

    Sandy Powell again missing out on costume for having two films nominated that split her vote. That said, Black Panther was a good winner as it did have a great look. The Lady Wifi knows the guy in London that provided all the genuine African tribal incidentals - beads and bangles and head-pieces and necklaces. This place has room after room after room after room of stuff - the Black Panther people went through it and hired many of the best items.
    I'd say Glenn and Olivia were pretty evenly matched.

    Wonder what tipped the Academy in favour of a needy, dysfunctional head of government manipulated and flattered by conniving courtiers?

    Agree on Costume - but Sandy already has thirteen nominations and three wins under her belt so I'm sure will bear up!

    Malik was also a deserving winner - in a pretty uneven film - it was impressive how his relatively slight figure dominated the stage in the same way the beefier Freddie did....
  • Not sure this was the answer Rachel Swindon was looking for:

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1099921058172411904
  • daodaodaodao Posts: 821


    Good article (and not the usual "woe is me how dare the plebs turn their back on the EU") - but he does ignore the fact that non-EU immigration into the UK is rising (so much for turning our back on the world and hating Johnny Foreigner - and May (that well known xenophobe) has just said 'immigration is good - we just need control') - and the actual relationship between the two countries is not bad, despite the distraction in the British government and the loony tunes at the top of the US one.

    Lets not forget in the sixties some in the Tory party were still smarting over the "Suez betrayal" (sic) and LBJ was livid with Wilson for refusing to join in Vietnam. The US in the world's undisputed military power - and despite Brexit the UK continues to top Global Soft Power rankings.

    The cathartic effect of a no deal Brexit would help to puncture British arrogance, which the loss of Empire hasn't fully achieved. The UK is still prancing on the world stage, but the butcher's apron is threadbare. It would be a comeuppance and facilitate Scottish independence and Irish re-unification. England (+/- Wales) would become a country of middle-ranking weight on the edge of but detached from Europe, and would need to rebuild more realistic and equitable relationships with the rest of the world. Corbyn, with his different and radical foreign policy views, could be the ideal person to do this.


  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 684
    edited February 2019
    Owen Paterson completely incoherent on Today just now. Yet again saying there’ll be a two year standstill period if there’s no deal. Wittering on about Turkish bits of paper. Malthouse lives, apparently.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,497
    Streeter said:

    Owen Paterson completely incoherent on Today just now. Yet again saying there’ll be a two year standstill period if there’s no deal. Wittering on about Turkish bits of paper. Malthouse lives, apparently.

    Given the incoherence at the top of British politics and especially on the Government side, Patterson might be right!
    Two year standstill with loads of hand-wringing!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741
    Streeter said:

    Owen Paterson completely incoherent on Today just now. Yet again saying there’ll be a two year standstill period if there’s no deal. Wittering on about Turkish bits of paper. Malthouse lives, apparently.

    2 year standstill? sounds like he has a 21 month extension in mind.
  • Scott_P said:
    Tezza forever! Huzzah! It is never the right time to leave: there is always one more project, one more crisis.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited February 2019
    Scott_P said:

    Inevitable, decent mainstream Labour MP, threatened, it doesn't take a brain surgeon to work out who or why...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741

    Scott_P said:
    Tezza forever! Huzzah! It is never the right time to leave: there is always one more project, one more crisis.
    Nah, it is the same can further down the road.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Streeter said:

    Owen Paterson completely incoherent on Today just now. Yet again saying there’ll be a two year standstill period if there’s no deal. Wittering on about Turkish bits of paper. Malthouse lives, apparently.

    Owen Paterson completely incoherent
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited February 2019
    Scott_P said:
    Angry Brexiteers, I expect. Boris has got form for heaving bricks through windows. Or Corbynistas. Or bored kids. Or passing ne'er do wells wanting to break in.

    I reckon the local police chief must be married to an estate agent if their advice is to move whenever a window is broken.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    Scott_P said:
    Angry Brexiteers, I expect. Boris has got form for heaving bricks through windows. Or Corbynistas. Or bored kids. Or passing ne'er do wells wanting to break in.

    I reckon the local police chief must be married to an estate agent if their advice is to move whenever a window is broken.
    From what I understand , Corbyn and he are unlikely to exchange Xmas cards, I reckon there is a far simpler explanation,.
  • Scott_P said:

    Streeter said:

    Owen Paterson completely incoherent on Today just now. Yet again saying there’ll be a two year standstill period if there’s no deal. Wittering on about Turkish bits of paper. Malthouse lives, apparently.

    Owen Paterson completely incoherent
    He is an absolute Muppet.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Ministers are planning a “hardship fund” for Britons impoverished by a no-deal Brexit.

    A leaked document from the cabinet committee dedicated to preparing for a chaotic rupture with the European Union reveals the extraordinary scenarios being prepared for in Whitehall.

    Other measures under consideration include using “tax and benefits policy” to offset rises in the cost of living, protection for parts of the country “geographically vulnerable” to food shortages and sourcing alternative food for schools, prisons and hospitals.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/no-deal-hardship-fund-planned-for-surge-in-jobless-sthj7g79g
  • Test your likelihood to support Remain, May's Deal or No Deal:

    https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/02/22/profiles-of-a-divided-country

    Only 92% Remain. This model is rubbish.
  • Good morning, everyone.

    I do think a second referendum seems more likely now, due to the Tiggers bouncing along.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    If I were negotiating on behalf of the EU. I would feel no compulsion whatsoever to move on the backstop or anything. We're in a strong position with the UK Parliament on our side. Why would I give on anything? They will veto a no-deal themselves.

    Even better, they'll beg for a delay, the very thing we want if (and we do) we'd prefer them to stay in an eventual humiliating climb-down.

    Even the fanatical Remainers realise this but they don't care, and for the MPs, it shows the voters who's in charge. When even sensible Remainers, such as Mr Meeks was once, liken voting for an option in a democratic referendum to a death cult such as ISIS, we know all their critical faculties have been scrambled.

    They need pity, I suppose, rather than condemnation, but it's a sad indictment on British democracy. Maybe it isn't such a loss after all. The Chelsea of politics.





  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,261

    Scott_P said:
    Tezza forever! Huzzah! It is never the right time to leave: there is always one more project, one more crisis.
    Which is why the two year standstill might appeal to her....

  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 684
    CD13 said:

    If I were negotiating on behalf of the EU. I would feel no compulsion whatsoever to move on the backstop or anything. We're in a strong position with the UK Parliament on our side. Why would I give on anything? They will veto a no-deal themselves.

    Even better, they'll beg for a delay, the very thing we want if (and we do) we'd prefer them to stay in an eventual humiliating climb-down.

    Even the fanatical Remainers realise this but they don't care, and for the MPs, it shows the voters who's in charge. When even sensible Remainers, such as Mr Meeks was once, liken voting for an option in a democratic referendum to a death cult such as ISIS, we know all their critical faculties have been scrambled.

    They need pity, I suppose, rather than condemnation, but it's a sad indictment on British democracy. Maybe it isn't such a loss after all. The Chelsea of politics.





    Wibble.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,873
    CD13 said:

    If I were negotiating on behalf of the EU. I would feel no compulsion whatsoever to move on the backstop or anything. We're in a strong position with the UK Parliament on our side. Why would I give on anything? They will veto a no-deal themselves.

    Even better, they'll beg for a delay, the very thing we want if (and we do) we'd prefer them to stay in an eventual humiliating climb-down.

    Even the fanatical Remainers realise this but they don't care, and for the MPs, it shows the voters who's in charge. When even sensible Remainers, such as Mr Meeks was once, liken voting for an option in a democratic referendum to a death cult such as ISIS, we know all their critical faculties have been scrambled.

    They need pity, I suppose, rather than condemnation, but it's a sad indictment on British democracy. Maybe it isn't such a loss after all. The Chelsea of politics.

    Indeed. Throughout the process the remainer majority has sought to undermine the UK position with the objective of leaving the UK with no viable option but to remain. The next stage is to remove no deal from the table completely. After all, that removal is bound to help May get any changes she is asking for to the backstop isn't it? All sensible people go into negotiations with the possibility of saying anything other than yes removed, stands to reason.

  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    daodao said:


    Good article (and not the usual "woe is me how dare the plebs turn their back on the EU") - but he does ignore the fact that non-EU immigration into the UK is rising (so much for turning our back on the world and hating Johnny Foreigner - and May (that well known xenophobe) has just said 'immigration is good - we just need control') - and the actual relationship between the two countries is not bad, despite the distraction in the British government and the loony tunes at the top of the US one.

    Lets not forget in the sixties some in the Tory party were still smarting over the "Suez betrayal" (sic) and LBJ was livid with Wilson for refusing to join in Vietnam. The US in the world's undisputed military power - and despite Brexit the UK continues to top Global Soft Power rankings.

    The cathartic effect of a no deal Brexit would help to puncture British arrogance, which the loss of Empire hasn't fully achieved. The UK is still prancing on the world stage, but the butcher's apron is threadbare. It would be a comeuppance and facilitate Scottish independence and Irish re-unification. England (+/- Wales) would become a country of middle-ranking weight on the edge of but detached from Europe, and would need to rebuild more realistic and equitable relationships with the rest of the world. Corbyn, with his different and radical foreign policy views, could be the ideal person to do this.


    A good example of what must be a significant aspect of the rationale for 'no deal': hatred of Britain.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    DavidL said:

    CD13 said:

    If I were negotiating on behalf of the EU. I would feel no compulsion whatsoever to move on the backstop or anything. We're in a strong position with the UK Parliament on our side. Why would I give on anything? They will veto a no-deal themselves.

    Even better, they'll beg for a delay, the very thing we want if (and we do) we'd prefer them to stay in an eventual humiliating climb-down.

    Even the fanatical Remainers realise this but they don't care, and for the MPs, it shows the voters who's in charge. When even sensible Remainers, such as Mr Meeks was once, liken voting for an option in a democratic referendum to a death cult such as ISIS, we know all their critical faculties have been scrambled.

    They need pity, I suppose, rather than condemnation, but it's a sad indictment on British democracy. Maybe it isn't such a loss after all. The Chelsea of politics.

    Indeed. Throughout the process the remainer majority has sought to undermine the UK position with the objective of leaving the UK with no viable option but to remain. The next stage is to remove no deal from the table completely. After all, that removal is bound to help May get any changes she is asking for to the backstop isn't it? All sensible people go into negotiations with the possibility of saying anything other than yes removed, stands to reason.

    Maybe the idea itself was just rubbish? Much simpler than all these conspiracy theories.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,218
    Looking it up and from my recollection of the term, MoU has a subtley different m among in private business and with regards to international treaties
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331

    Scott_P said:
    Angry Brexiteers, I expect. Boris has got form for heaving bricks through windows. Or Corbynistas. Or bored kids. Or passing ne'er do wells wanting to break in.

    I reckon the local police chief must be married to an estate agent if their advice is to move whenever a window is broken.
    The ERG and Corbynistas are two cheeks of the same arse.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Scott_P said:
    Is he suggesting they aren't Momentum supporters?


  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,218

    Test your likelihood to support Remain, May's Deal or No Deal:

    https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/02/22/profiles-of-a-divided-country

    40-27-33
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Here is Corbyn's response to Watson...

    https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1099937717683666944
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741
    DavidL said:

    CD13 said:

    If I were negotiating on behalf of the EU. I would feel no compulsion whatsoever to move on the backstop or anything. We're in a strong position with the UK Parliament on our side. Why would I give on anything? They will veto a no-deal themselves.

    Even better, they'll beg for a delay, the very thing we want if (and we do) we'd prefer them to stay in an eventual humiliating climb-down.

    Even the fanatical Remainers realise this but they don't care, and for the MPs, it shows the voters who's in charge. When even sensible Remainers, such as Mr Meeks was once, liken voting for an option in a democratic referendum to a death cult such as ISIS, we know all their critical faculties have been scrambled.

    They need pity, I suppose, rather than condemnation, but it's a sad indictment on British democracy. Maybe it isn't such a loss after all. The Chelsea of politics.

    Indeed. Throughout the process the remainer majority has sought to undermine the UK position with the objective of leaving the UK with no viable option but to remain. The next stage is to remove no deal from the table completely. After all, that removal is bound to help May get any changes she is asking for to the backstop isn't it? All sensible people go into negotiations with the possibility of saying anything other than yes removed, stands to reason.

    No Deal is not a coherent negotiating stance when you cannot get your own Cabinet to back it.

    Its like trying to bluff at cards sitting in a hall of mirrors wearing mirrored glasses.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Anyone advocating No Deal is an idiot.

    Anyone claiming No Deal gives us negotiating leverage assumes the people we are negotiating with would be moved by us pretending to be idiots.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Do we think we'll get a strong indicated we are heading for delay this week, or will we have to wait until mid March? (or later?!)
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    edited February 2019
    Mr P,

    I think the phrase you're looking for is 'useful idiots.'
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    CD13 said:

    If I were negotiating on behalf of the EU. I would feel no compulsion whatsoever to move on the backstop or anything. We're in a strong position with the UK Parliament on our side. Why would I give on anything? They will veto a no-deal themselves.

    Even better, they'll beg for a delay, the very thing we want if (and we do) we'd prefer them to stay in an eventual humiliating climb-down.

    Even the fanatical Remainers realise this but they don't care, and for the MPs, it shows the voters who's in charge. When even sensible Remainers, such as Mr Meeks was once, liken voting for an option in a democratic referendum to a death cult such as ISIS, we know all their critical faculties have been scrambled.

    They need pity, I suppose, rather than condemnation, but it's a sad indictment on British democracy. Maybe it isn't such a loss after all. The Chelsea of politics.

    Indeed. Throughout the process the remainer majority has sought to undermine the UK position with the objective of leaving the UK with no viable option but to remain. The next stage is to remove no deal from the table completely. After all, that removal is bound to help May get any changes she is asking for to the backstop isn't it? All sensible people go into negotiations with the possibility of saying anything other than yes removed, stands to reason.

    No Deal is not a coherent negotiating stance when you cannot get your own Cabinet to back it.

    Its like trying to bluff at cards sitting in a hall of mirrors wearing mirrored glasses.
    No Deal is not and never was a coherent negotiating strategy. No country would want to No Deal, unless, perhaps, they had around a decade to get ready.

    That the majority of Tory supporters prefer a No Deal is alarming.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    It is ironic that Sadiq Khan is been a far worse mayor than two men I despise: Ken Livingstone and Boris Johnson.

    I can’t think of a single thing he has done, unless helping to bugger the finances of TfL can be counted.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/bike-blog/2019/feb/25/londons-cycle-network-overhaul-has-come-to-a-standstill
  • Scott_P said:
    They're not real conspiracy theorists; they are Russian trolls.

    Controlled by Mossad from the new Israeli moon-base.

    Actually it would not greatly surprise me if the antisemitic nutters are being stirred up by Russian or even Tory mischief-makers along the lines of the three quidders. Same with Brexit, mutatis mutandis.
  • IanB2 said:

    Do we think we'll get a strong indicated we are heading for delay this week, or will we have to wait until mid March? (or later?!)

    FWIW TMay still seems to be insisting the only thing she's considering is leaving on time with a deal, which IIUC the markets are currently considering a 2% chance:
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/24/theresa-may-postpones-meaningful-vote-on-final-brexit-deal?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    DavidL said:

    CD13 said:

    If I were negotiating on behalf of the EU. I would feel no compulsion whatsoever to move on the backstop or anything. We're in a strong position with the UK Parliament on our side. Why would I give on anything? They will veto a no-deal themselves.

    Even better, they'll beg for a delay, the very thing we want if (and we do) we'd prefer them to stay in an eventual humiliating climb-down.

    Even the fanatical Remainers realise this but they don't care, and for the MPs, it shows the voters who's in charge. When even sensible Remainers, such as Mr Meeks was once, liken voting for an option in a democratic referendum to a death cult such as ISIS, we know all their critical faculties have been scrambled.

    They need pity, I suppose, rather than condemnation, but it's a sad indictment on British democracy. Maybe it isn't such a loss after all. The Chelsea of politics.

    Indeed. Throughout the process the remainer majority has sought to undermine the UK position with the objective of leaving the UK with no viable option but to remain. The next stage is to remove no deal from the table completely. After all, that removal is bound to help May get any changes she is asking for to the backstop isn't it? All sensible people go into negotiations with the possibility of saying anything other than yes removed, stands to reason.

    It’s always someone else’s fault for Leavers . No deal is only a negotiating strategy if the default is the status quo . Remainers don’t need to undermine the UK position, May and her useless government are doing a good job of that by themselves.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    IanB2 said:

    Do we think we'll get a strong indicated we are heading for delay this week, or will we have to wait until mid March? (or later?!)

    FWIW TMay still seems to be insisting the only thing she's considering is leaving on time with a deal, which IIUC the markets are currently considering a 2% chance:
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/24/theresa-may-postpones-meaningful-vote-on-final-brexit-deal?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
    But there will be an amendment up on Weds?
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    Dr Fox,

    "No Deal is not a coherent negotiating stance when you cannot get your own Cabinet to back it."

    I agree. Nye Bevan made a famous comment about Mrs May's current position.

    But she's never been a particularly good politician. Where she gains a little is that she means well, and being a Remainer, she's not just pushing her own agenda.

    Jezza, however, clearly is, and he hasn't even the advantage of being seen to be brighter.


  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,752
    edited February 2019
    CD13 said:

    Dr Fox,

    "No Deal is not a coherent negotiating stance when you cannot get your own Cabinet to back it."

    I agree. Nye Bevan made a famous comment about Mrs May's current position. ...

    That's not a good breakfast-time thought. Especially considering who she's negotiating with.
  • DavidL said:

    CD13 said:

    If I were negotiating on behalf of the EU. I would feel no compulsion whatsoever to move on the backstop or anything. We're in a strong position with the UK Parliament on our side. Why would I give on anything? They will veto a no-deal themselves.

    Even better, they'll beg for a delay, the very thing we want if (and we do) we'd prefer them to stay in an eventual humiliating climb-down.

    Even the fanatical Remainers realise this but they don't care, and for the MPs, it shows the voters who's in charge. When even sensible Remainers, such as Mr Meeks was once, liken voting for an option in a democratic referendum to a death cult such as ISIS, we know all their critical faculties have been scrambled.

    They need pity, I suppose, rather than condemnation, but it's a sad indictment on British democracy. Maybe it isn't such a loss after all. The Chelsea of politics.

    Indeed. Throughout the process the remainer majority has sought to undermine the UK position with the objective of leaving the UK with no viable option but to remain. The next stage is to remove no deal from the table completely. After all, that removal is bound to help May get any changes she is asking for to the backstop isn't it? All sensible people go into negotiations with the possibility of saying anything other than yes removed, stands to reason.

    Leavers have never sought to make any kind of consensus or reconciliation with Remainers, preferring instead to seek to grind them into the dust. And now they wonder why Remainers are being disobliging.

    What exactly do Leavers think that Remainers who have yet to be persuaded of the wisdom of Leave (currently pretty much all of them) should be doing at this stage, bearing in mind that Leavers still have no internal consensus themselves about what Leave should look like?
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    A no-deal will be seen by both sides as a failure. On Juncker's and Barnier's part as well as Mrs May's, and they'll face censure from the EU too. They still remain ambitious, if only for their reputations.

    But those two don't need to worry because they have the UK MPs behind them.
This discussion has been closed.