That's tomorrow's defection/split off for a day or two then?
Maybe. Although I just wonder how many have almost been forced to defect/split just because everyone thinks they are the ones threatening to and not doing it, so their reputation is going down the drain even as they never had any intention of doing so.
Meh. Whatever. I think it's shite, now. Everyone will want to avoid disaster. If No Deal happens, a large number of small, ad hoc deals will replace. We will take a knock, for sure, but we finally will be outside a stagnating empire, which appears incapable of any serious and sensible reform.
There well be many small ad-hoc arrangements, but there won't be any small ad-hoc deals. IIRC EU no-deal planning includes several arrangements, but those are to its taste and imposed without UK consultation nor consent. You don't get deals in a no-deal situation, if you see what I mean. It's not a case of bureaucrat X taking bureaucrat Y to one side and saying "our governments are crazy but we can make some small arrangements, yes?". It's a case of bureaucrat Y saying "OK these are the rules which you have to obey if you want to do your business in our patch". There are ways to describe that, but "deal" isn't one of them.
Am I the only person becoming evermore sanguine about No Deal?
Project Apocalypse has just gone so far it has lost all impact (the Queen will be evacuated? I mean, really? The Royal Family stayed in London during the Blitz, for feck's sake). Also the endless tedious Brexit party-politicking has made me switch off, it's too boring.
The end result is I now don't give a fuck if we No Deal Brexit, I don't think it will be that bad - we can see the mitigation already happening - and I reckon the EU will be eager to mend fences and build bridges very quickly. We will be in a much stronger position once we are out and entirely free. Yes we will suffer, but the EU will have to negotiate with us as a relative equal, like Canada, rather than a captive supplicant, like Greece.
Even if I am horribly wrong, that is my psychology. I suspect it is shared.
All No Deal will do is aggravate the crisis. It is the absence of a deal, not an alternative to it. It's viable only if we never have any arrangement with the EU on anything at all, ever. So it's not viable at all. It's simply displacement activity to avoid facing reality.
Meh. Whatever. I think it's shite, now. Everyone will want to avoid disaster. If No Deal happens, a large number of small, ad hoc deals will replace. We will take a knock, for sure, but we finally will be outside a stagnating empire, which appears incapable of any serious and sensible reform.
Doubtful. The EU will say, want a deal on X? Sign the Withdrawal Agreement and we're ready to talk. At some point we'll sign. I don't think it will be long. Weeks at most.
Personally, I think the EU will probably blink, to an extent, and we will get some legal declaration on the backstop, and TMay will nudge her Deal over the line.
But if we get No Deal then I do not believe we will run begging to the EU. It is not human , nature: instead a kind of bunker mentality will take over. Us V Them.
As "they" and "them" are multiple, I suspect they will fragment, and offer us a better deal. Berlin will tell Dublin to suck it up.
It will still hurt us, of course; I don't deny that. Brexit is bound to be painful, a bit like giving birth, as I might have said before.
Wasn't your first statement reported in the Times to be what Macron is proposing? A classic EU fudge, where they can say we haven't renegotiated, we have clarified.
Not sure about the fourth. Gavin Shuker looks likely.
I don't think Berger will go (yet).
Mike Gapes is much more likely, or possibly Angela Smith.
Good point, I'd forgotten about Mike Gapes.
The four names most often seen doing the rounds on Twitter this evening have been Umunna, Leslie, Gavin Shuker and Angela Smith.
Not quite the Gang Of Four are they?
They are not even close to being political heavyweights. They can't even muster someone with significant ministerial experience to join them in this escapade.
Am I the only person becoming evermore sanguine about No Deal?
Project Apocalypse has just gone so far it has lost all impact (the Queen will be evacuated? I mean, really? The Royal Family stayed in London during the Blitz, for feck's sake). Also the endless tedious Brexit party-politicking has made me switch off, it's too boring.
The end result is I now don't give a fuck if we No Deal Brexit, I don't think it will be that bad - we can see the mitigation already happening - and I reckon the EU will be eager to mend fences and build bridges very quickly. We will be in a much stronger position once we are out and entirely free. Yes we will suffer, but the EU will have to negotiate with us as a relative equal, like Canada, rather than a captive supplicant, like Greece.
Even if I am horribly wrong, that is my psychology. I suspect it is shared.
All No Deal will do is aggravate the crisis. It is the absence of a deal, not an alternative to it. It's viable only if we never have any arrangement with the EU on anything at all, ever. So it's not viable at all. It's simply displacement activity to avoid facing reality.
Meh. Whatever. I think it's shite, now. Everyone will want to avoid disaster. If No Deal happens, a large number of small, ad hoc deals will replace. We will take a knock, for sure, but we finally will be outside a stagnating empire, which appears incapable of any serious and sensible reform.
Doubtful. The EU will say, want a deal on X? Sign the Withdrawal Agreement and we're ready to talk. At some point we'll sign. I don't think it will be long. Weeks at most.
Personally, I think the EU will probably blink, to an extent, and we will get some legal declaration on the backstop, and TMay will nudge her Deal over the line.
But if we get No Deal then I do not believe we will run begging to the EU. It is not human , nature: instead a kind of bunker mentality will take over. Us V Them.
As "they" and "them" are multiple, I suspect they will fragment, and offer us a better deal. Berlin will tell Dublin to suck it up.
It will still hurt us, of course; I don't deny that. Brexit is bound to be painful, a bit like giving birth, as I might have said before.
Wasn't your first statement reported in the Times to be what Macron is proposing? A classic EU fudge, where they can say we haven't renegotiated, we have clarified.
Not sure about the fourth. Gavin Shuker looks likely.
I don't think Berger will go (yet).
Mike Gapes is much more likely, or possibly Angela Smith.
Good point, I'd forgotten about Mike Gapes.
The four names most often seen doing the rounds on Twitter this evening have been Umunna, Leslie, Gavin Shuker and Angela Smith.
Not quite the Gang Of Four are they?
They are not even close to being political heavyweights. They can't even muster someone with significant ministerial experience to join them in this escapade.
The hand of history is now on Owen Who's shoulders.
I suppose more than number of any defections (if any) it will be a bigger story if someone unexpected were to be among the number.
Imagine if the 4 were Chuka Umunna, Cooper, Khan and Burnham......
Khan won't go anywhere. He is the ultimate political opportunist, why would he rock the boat when he is nailed on to win re-election in London under the Labour banner and then he can wait his time to see where things go in the next few years.
Am I the only person becoming evermore sanguine about No Deal?
Project Apocalypse has just gone so far it has lost all impact (the Queen will be evacuated? I mean, really? The Royal Family stayed in London during the Blitz, for feck's sake). Also the endless tedious Brexit party-politicking has made me switch off, it's too boring.
The end result is I now don't give a fuck if we No Deal Brexit, I don't think it will be that bad - we can see the mitigation already happening - and I reckon the EU will be eager to mend fences and build bridges very quickly. We will be in a much stronger position once we are out and entirely free. Yes we will suffer, but the EU will have to negotiate with us as a relative equal, like Canada, rather than a captive supplicant, like Greece.
Even if I am horribly wrong, that is my psychology. I suspect it is shared.
All No Deal will do is aggravate the crisis. It is the absence of a deal, not an alternative to it. It's viable only if we never have any arrangement with the EU on anything at all, ever. So it's not viable at all. It's simply displacement activity to avoid facing reality.
Meh. Whatever. I think it's shite, now. Everyone will want to avoid disaster. If No Deal happens, a large number of small, ad hoc deals will replace. We will take a knock, for sure, but we finally will be outside a stagnating empire, which appears incapable of any serious and sensible reform.
Doubtful. The EU will say, want a deal on X? Sign the Withdrawal Agreement and we're ready to talk. At some point we'll sign. I don't think it will be long. Weeks at most.
Personally, I think the EU will probably blink, to an extent, and we will get some legal declaration on the backstop, and TMay will nudge her Deal over the line.
But if we get No Deal then I do not believe we will run begging to the EU. It is not human , nature: instead a kind of bunker mentality will take over. Us V Them.
As "they" and "them" are multiple, I suspect they will fragment, and offer us a better deal. Berlin will tell Dublin to suck it up.
It will still hurt us, of course; I don't deny that. Brexit is bound to be painful, a bit like giving birth, as I might have said before.
For the first part, yes. The EU wants the deal and will happily connive in unicorns to achieve it as "May's Deal", aka as the Political Statement, demonstrates. But if it does go to No Deal, that is when it will get very hard edged. The EU will drive to the Withdrawal Agreement all the time. No Deal cuts across far too many vested interests. We will sign anything within days, I think. All of this only gets us to the next stage, of course, whether we go for the deal before we crash out, or not.
LOL, Sadiq Khan ain't going to be touching this "new party" with a bargepole. He actually has some basic political nous.
Oh, he won't be joining it straight away, certainly not with just 4 ex-Lab MPs. But if they get cross-party defections and end up polling 10%+ nationally that would probably mean nearer 30% in London, and they'd be a likely second preference for much of the Tory vote as well.
This has been talked about for ages and many do remember the challenge to Gordon Brown that never quite materialised. Not surprisingly its all viewed with a jaundiced eye.
Yet, there is only so much kite flying and talking that can be done, even amongst Labour MPs.
This has been talked about for ages and many do remember the challenge to Gordon Brown that never quite materialised. Not surprisingly its all viewed with a jaundiced eye.
Yet, there is only so much kite flying and talking that can be done, even amongst Labour MPs.
Am now watching the final part of the BBC docu on the EU, on the migrant crisis.
My God, the staggering, world-class stupidity of Merkel. Utterly, calamitously myopic and imbecilic. Virtue signalling on a global level, which led to Brexit, inter alia. What a dumb fucking cow.
And now she has to find jobs for a million mostly unskilled people....with the Germany economy flat-lining and of course a future where China are getting better and better at high end manufacture (and willing to steal whatever IP is required to continue to improve further).
Am now watching the final part of the BBC docu on the EU, on the migrant crisis.
My God, the staggering, world-class stupidity of Merkel. Utterly, calamitously myopic and imbecilic. Virtue signalling on a global level, which led to Brexit, inter alia. What a dumb fucking cow.
And now she has to find jobs for a million mostly unskilled people....with the Germany economy flat-lining.
When is she standing down? It may not be her issue for long.
Am now watching the final part of the BBC docu on the EU, on the migrant crisis.
My God, the staggering, world-class stupidity of Merkel. Utterly, calamitously myopic and imbecilic. Virtue signalling on a global level, which led to Brexit, inter alia. What a dumb fucking cow.
And now she has to find jobs for a million mostly unskilled people....with the Germany economy flat-lining.
When is she standing down? It may not be her issue for long.
Good point. Her replacement has got a hell of a job to deal with this.
UK security chiefs have advised that the risk of using Huawei technology in the new superfast 5G could be contained despite US warnings about opening the telecoms network up to Chinese cyber-espionage, according to sources.
Kinnock being part of the splinter group would have symbolic significance.
I just don't think he has the balls to do it.
I don't think any of them have the cullions - or the ovaries - to do it, except maybe Chuka and Leslie. I wish I was wrong. We need a decent Opposition. We need 200 Labour MPs to reassemble as the Official Oppostion.
I hereby register my respect for any Labour MP that does this. Bravo.
I do tend to agree. If all of those who voted for the VONC in Corbyn were to walk, it would be a significant moment. But we aren't looking at that. We are looking a bunch of dilettantes and nobodies. There isn't a single person of stature being rumoured.
Just out of interest James O'Brien is taking a half term break from his 10am to 1pm morning show on LBC this week. His show is being hosted by a different guest politician every day - here are the lucky guest hosts:
Tom Watson Jess Phillips Anna Soubry Emily Thornberry and David Lammy
I presume Jacob Rees Mogg and Nigel Farage weren't available - at O'Brien's insistence!!
Am now watching the final part of the BBC docu on the EU, on the migrant crisis.
My God, the staggering, world-class stupidity of Merkel. Utterly, calamitously myopic and imbecilic. Virtue signalling on a global level, which led to Brexit, inter alia. What a dumb fucking cow.
And now she has to find jobs for a million mostly unskilled people....with the Germany economy flat-lining.
When is she standing down? It may not be her issue for long.
I thought Merkel was remaining Chancellor until the next Federal elections - which will take place in September or October 2021. So we have another two and a half years to endure.
Just out of interest James O'Brien is taking a half term break from his 10am to 1pm morning show on LBC this week. His show is being hosted by a different guest politician every day - here are the lucky guest hosts:
Tom Watson Jess Phillips Anna Soubry Emily Thornberry and David Lammy
I presume Jacob Rees Mogg and Nigel Farage weren't available - at O'Brien's insistence!!
Not exactly a politically balanced set of choices...
Am now watching the final part of the BBC docu on the EU, on the migrant crisis.
My God, the staggering, world-class stupidity of Merkel. Utterly, calamitously myopic and imbecilic. Virtue signalling on a global level, which led to Brexit, inter alia. What a dumb fucking cow.
And now she has to find jobs for a million mostly unskilled people....with the Germany economy flat-lining and of course a future where China are getting better and better at high end manufacture (and willing to steal whatever IP is required to continue to improve further).
You can sort of understand why she did it, because the last year in which Germany had more births than deaths was 1972.
Am now watching the final part of the BBC docu on the EU, on the migrant crisis.
My God, the staggering, world-class stupidity of Merkel. Utterly, calamitously myopic and imbecilic. Virtue signalling on a global level, which led to Brexit, inter alia. What a dumb fucking cow.
And now she has to find jobs for a million mostly unskilled people....with the Germany economy flat-lining and of course a future where China are getting better and better at high end manufacture (and willing to steal whatever IP is required to continue to improve further).
You can sort of understand why she did it, because the last year in which Germany had more births than deaths was 1972.
That wasn't the stated reason at the time, and in any case, there are probably better and less divisive ways of encouraging legal immigration in a more gradual way. Making huge snap policy decisions in sensitive areas, running roughshod over established protocol in the process, is not typically seen as conducive to high quality long term outcomes.
Looking at the alleged impending split(s), I don't understand the timing in pure political terms. If say 4-5 Labour MPs and 2-3 Tory MPs say they're forming a new grouping or a new party, it'll be big news for a day or two, but it'll then get completely blotted out by the Return of Brexit next week. In two weeks' time most people would struggle to remember who it was that resigned.
By contrast, if they do it after the Brexit votes, they can claim it's partly a reaction to whatever they don't like about them, and it becomes part of the main story.
I'm not one of those who is virulent about party-changers - MPs evolve just like everyone else, as do their parties, and in a democracy we're all entitled to. It's the other side of the coin that MPs shouldn't assume they have a God-given right to represent their ;parties forever. But this just seems to me rather odd, and notably devoid of confirmed press leaks.
Looking at the alleged impending split(s), I don't understand the timing in pure political terms. If say 4-5 Labour MPs and 2-3 Tory MPs say they're forming a new grouping or a new party, it'll be big news for a day or two, but it'll then get completely blotted out by the Return of Brexit next week. In two weeks' time most people would struggle to remember who it was that resigned.
By contrast, if they do it after the Brexit votes, they can claim it's partly a reaction to whatever they don't like about them, and it becomes part of the main story.
I'm not one of those who is virulent about party-changers - MPs evolve just like everyone else, as do their parties, and in a democracy we're all entitled to. It's the other side of the coin that MPs shouldn't assume they have a God-given right to represent their ;parties forever. But this just seems to me rather odd, and notably devoid of confirmed press leaks.
Maybe there are more splitters lined up for a series of announcements in the next few weeks. Seven is not bad as a start, and we know there are many more very unhappy Labour MPs.
Comments
Tories in second place - so a split in the Labour vote combined with loss of personal vote and low by-election turn out could see a shock result.
Wouldn't feel confident in predicting that - but it does change the Parliamentary maths just a little bit in the meantime.
Flynn was unlikely to return for any votes - but it was still an outside possibility.
https://twitter.com/independent_ie/status/1097224188887252992?s=21
I honestly have no idea what is going on, it all appears to have gone quiet.
Pause.
OK, possibly time to go to bed now...
Though it's probably an aide running the account, I would hope
Yet, there is only so much kite flying and talking that can be done, even amongst Labour MPs.
We all remember the day of the snow plot.
Jezza will be thinking about how Lenin and Stalin dealt with their "malcontents"
You could change out for Khan for Balls..... Not an MP, but someone who seems to have gotten more respect since leaving Westminster politics.
I just don't think he has the balls to do it.
UK security chiefs have advised that the risk of using Huawei technology in the new superfast 5G could be contained despite US warnings about opening the telecoms network up to Chinese cyber-espionage, according to sources.
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/feb/17/uk-security-chiefs-huawei-risk-in-5g-can-be-contained
Typical Labour
Tom Watson
Jess Phillips
Anna Soubry
Emily Thornberry and
David Lammy
I presume Jacob Rees Mogg and Nigel Farage weren't available - at O'Brien's insistence!!
By contrast, if they do it after the Brexit votes, they can claim it's partly a reaction to whatever they don't like about them, and it becomes part of the main story.
I'm not one of those who is virulent about party-changers - MPs evolve just like everyone else, as do their parties, and in a democracy we're all entitled to. It's the other side of the coin that MPs shouldn't assume they have a God-given right to represent their ;parties forever. But this just seems to me rather odd, and notably devoid of confirmed press leaks.