Cameron did the worst thing a leader can do by creating a sense of humiliation. The reaction of Conservatives to his deal was wholly irrational because of it.
No, it's simpler than that. Steve Baker and the other ERGers had carefully been biding their time with a 'we'll wait to see what the PM brings back' - a position which appeared eminently reasonable - whilst all along they were waiting to trash it whatever was in it (a trick they successfully repeated with the EU's withdrawal deal). What is extraordinary is that so many people were conned by the trashing on both occasions. Of course, with the benefit of hindsight Cameron's deal looks absolutely fabulous compared with May's, and May's will in the future look stunningly good compared with what we end up with.
It feels we are at a tipping point. Both main parties succumbing to entryism and utter madness.
Labour now demanding everyone signs a loyalty card to the supreme leader.*
Tories deselecting MPs who actually vote for their own leader.
There's about to be a massive kaboom imho.
* No Jews allowed to sign obviously.
Just a correction. Those calling for deselection are ukip infiltrators in the main, not tories
Hopefully the party introduce new rules to limit participants in selection to members who have been in the party for at least 18 months or something along those lines. We can't have a bunch of idiots coming in and making the party completely toxic.
I thought the party has been full of "nasty" members for 20 years or more.
Cameron did the worst thing a leader can do by creating a sense of humiliation. The reaction of Conservatives to his deal was wholly irrational because of it.
No, it's simpler than that. Steve Baker and the other ERGers had carefully been biding their time with a 'we'll wait to see what the PM brings back' - a position which appeared eminently reasonable - whilst all along they were waiting to trash it whatever was in it (a trick they successfully repeated with the EU's withdrawal deal). What is extraordinary is that so many people were conned by the trashing on both occasions. Of course, with the benefit of hindsight Cameron's deal looks absolutely fabulous compared with May's, and May's will in the future look stunningly good compared with what we end up with.
I still don't believe we are on the cusp of new centrist party.
What is the point of a new party set up to campaign for a 2nd Referendum and some rather nebulous form of social democracy?
Don't we already have the LDs for that sort of thing? What would make the Leslie/Chuka party significantly different?
I agree with this. We seem to have a lot of people that are in the Con and Lab party that should be very at home in the Lib Dems. They just seem to be unable to admit it.
The problem is that the LDs have rather forgotten why they exist and what they stand for. Cable has made their position worse since taking over - which is saying something after Farron.
The same could be said of other parties too - both Labour and Conservative have rather lost sight of the things that made them national parties with a purpose.
But I just don't see the point of a new small party of the centre left.
What we actually need is a mass Labour defection to a new Left Wing Party - stripping Corbyn of the title of LOTO and restoring some balance to our political system.
Would any of these people listed have what it takes to win their own constituency without the Labour label? They’re not big beasts.
They’re uninspiring centrist technocrats when a country is looking elsewhere.
That's the other thing to consider - ok, calling an election is not as easy as it used to be, but with a minority government dependent on the arseholes of the DUP, the chances of lasting until 2022 off the back of Brexit and possible recession to come, seems unlikely. Near anyone splitting off will lose their seat, possibly not long from now. Perhaps it would be worth it for the 'I told you so' factor later, but are there really that many who will already be certain they will not get to stand again, and who even care to try?
😃 The reason for the threats and rumours is to try and put pressure on for the leadership to back second vote, once actually quitting and sit as independents how do they then put pressure on for second vote?
Well indeed. If they go, Corbyn would be well minded to go for a second vote in my opinion - would show they left for no reason!
But Corbyn would want "Labour Brexit" (permanent CU) on the ballot and he would expect his MPs to campaign for that option since it was in the manifesto they were most recently elected on.
Cameron did the worst thing a leader can do by creating a sense of humiliation. The reaction of Conservatives to his deal was wholly irrational because of it.
No, it's simpler than that. Steve Baker and the other ERGers had carefully been biding their time with a 'we'll wait to see what the PM brings back' - a position which appeared eminently reasonable - whilst all along they were waiting to trash it whatever was in it (a trick they successfully repeated with the EU's withdrawal deal). What is extraordinary is that so many people were conned by the trashing on both occasions. Of course, with the benefit of hindsight Cameron's deal looks absolutely fabulous compared with May's, and May's will in the future look stunningly good compared with what we end up with.
No, Dave's deal really was quite bad. Even the 7 year emergency break on paying benefits was extremely limited in scope. The protections for the city (that stupid yellow and red card system) were laughable and the opt out of ever closer union wasn't legally binding as it wasn't in any EU treaty.
Cameron did the worst thing a leader can do by creating a sense of humiliation. The reaction of Conservatives to his deal was wholly irrational because of it.
No, it's simpler than that. Steve Baker and the other ERGers had carefully been biding their time with a 'we'll wait to see what the PM brings back' - a position which appeared eminently reasonable - whilst all along they were waiting to trash it whatever was in it (a trick they successfully repeated with the EU's withdrawal deal). What is extraordinary is that so many people were conned by the trashing on both occasions. Of course, with the benefit of hindsight Cameron's deal looks absolutely fabulous compared with May's, and May's will in the future look stunningly good compared with what we end up with.
No, Dave's deal really was quite bad. Even the 7 year emergency break on paying benefits was extremely limited in scope. The protections for the city (that stupid yellow and red card system) were laughable and the opt out of ever closer union wasn't legally binding as it wasn't in any EU treaty.
I agree that the red/yellow card stuff was of no use, and the immigration stuff was insignificant.
However, the protections on the City were excellent (and tragically will now be lost whatever happens, so we are going to lose Eurozone business unnecessarily). The opt-out of ever-closer union was an extraordinary achievement: this was the first time ever that the EU had accepted that point. The entire relationship would have been transformed by it.
In any case, you ignored my main point, which is that it was a hell of a lot better than the alternatives now available.
Would any of these people listed have what it takes to win their own constituency without the Labour label? They’re not big beasts.
They’re uninspiring centrist technocrats when a country is looking elsewhere.
Would any of the Labour front bench have what it takes to win their own constituency without the Labour label? It's a nonsensical point in a party-based electoral system dominated by Labour and the Conservatives (or at least, dominated up till now...).
Given the strength of the Labour brand, after Blair and Brown, who Corbyn voted against religiously, it would be spectacularly ironic his crowning achievement was the final Ratnerisation of the brand.
It needs to start with at least double figures and then lead to many more following over the subsequent days. Otherwise it just looks like SDP mkII - but with much, much smaller 'beasts'
Am I the only person becoming evermore sanguine about No Deal?
Project Apocalypse has just gone so far it has lost all impact (the Queen will be evacuated? I mean, really? The Royal Family stayed in London during the Blitz, for feck's sake). Also the endless tedious Brexit party-politicking has made me switch off, it's too boring.
The end result is I now don't give a fuck if we No Deal Brexit, I don't think it will be that bad - we can see the mitigation already happening - and I reckon the EU will be eager to mend fences and build bridges very quickly. We will be in a much stronger position once we are out and entirely free. Yes we will suffer, but the EU will have to negotiate with us as a relative equal, like Canada, rather than a captive supplicant, like Greece.
Even if I am horribly wrong, that is my psychology. I suspect it is shared.
I'm not sanguine about it, I'm resigned and mentally exhausted to the point of apathy. All I have left on that score is the hope it is not all that bad, there's not much hope left of avoiding it.
If the rumours of Labour MPs finally getting round to leaving the party are true, then a big question is whether they formally set up a new party or sit as independents. If the latter, then I think they might be joined by a bunch of Conservatives.
😃 The reason for the threats and rumours is to try and put pressure on for the leadership to back second vote, once actually quitting and sit as independents how do they then put pressure on for second vote? Those spreading the idea of something going to happen are merely useful idiots in the game. Things could actually move in favour of those trying to get second vote, so is this really the right moment to rip up party membership, muffle your voice and influence?
They haven't got any leverage that can force Corbyn's hand in their direction. He isn't prepared to listen to anyone outside of his very particular bubble.
Yes. Exactly. You know it I know it corb knows it everybody playing the game knows it, but they still got to play the game.
Am I the only person becoming evermore sanguine about No Deal?
Project Apocalypse has just gone so far it has lost all impact (the Queen will be evacuated? I mean, really? The Royal Family stayed in London during the Blitz, for feck's sake). Also the endless tedious Brexit party-politicking has made me switch off, it's too boring.
The end result is I now don't give a fuck if we No Deal Brexit, I don't think it will be that bad - we can see the mitigation already happening - and I reckon the EU will be eager to mend fences and build bridges very quickly. We will be in a much stronger position once we are out and entirely free. Yes we will suffer, but the EU will have to negotiate with us as a relative equal, like Canada, rather than a captive supplicant, like Greece.
Even if I am horribly wrong, that is my psychology. I suspect it is shared.
All No Deal will do is aggravate the crisis. It is the absence of a deal, not an alternative to it. It's viable only if we never have any arrangement with the EU on anything at all, ever. So it's not viable at all. It's simply displacement activity to avoid facing reality.
Well yes, but what made the SDP take off (to an extent) wasn't the relatively small proportion of Labour MPs who defected, it was that there was genuinely a market for them with the electorate. Time will tell if that is also true this time, but my guess is that it isn't (as has been said by others, a lot of people who self-identify as "centrist" in opinion polls often don't actually have "centrist" views when they're asked about specific issues).
My prediction would be this new party might get to about 10% in immediate polls before people have really looked into what they stand for, before they fizzle to about 3-5% in an actual election, with their support mostly concentrated in London.
Am I the only person becoming evermore sanguine about No Deal?
Project Apocalypse has just gone so far it has lost all impact (the Queen will be evacuated? I mean, really? The Royal Family stayed in London during the Blitz, for feck's sake). Also the endless tedious Brexit party-politicking has made me switch off, it's too boring.
The end result is I now don't give a fuck if we No Deal Brexit, I don't think it will be that bad - we can see the mitigation already happening - and I reckon the EU will be eager to mend fences and build bridges very quickly. We will be in a much stronger position once we are out and entirely free. Yes we will suffer, but the EU will have to negotiate with us as a relative equal, like Canada, rather than a captive supplicant, like Greece.
Even if I am horribly wrong, that is my psychology. I suspect it is shared.
That's what you happen to be feeling in your water at 10.58pm. Let's see what 11.34pm brings.
Even if the Deal was as great as you say (I think this is laughable bollocks), you have to admit your hero Cameron fucked up the optics. FFS even the CABINET thought the Deal was terrible. Apparently when Cameron told them what he'd achieved, at Number 10, he was met with a terrible stony silence around the table. Tumbleweed. Everyone know it was a stinker, compared to the radical reform he had promised.
Then it was focus-grouped and public reaction was even worse: this Deal sucks,
Hence the fact the Deal was swiftly forgotten and unmentioned during the campaign BY THE REMAIN SIDE. They already knew from internal polling it was going down like a cup of cold Frenchman's sick.
You are clearly not a stupid man, but you have a stupid opinion: that David Cameron was a very good politician, likewise George Osborne. The loss of the EU referendum, thanks to his own howling errors, is proof positive that Cameron was a fucking TERRIBLE politician, inasmuch as he was a mediocrity who greatly over-rated his abilities (first to negotiate, then to campaign), and this, fatally, led to him presiding over the absolute opposite of what he wanted, and to Brexit being chiselled on his political gravestone.
This is inarguable. Your dimness on this bewilders me.
Actually I don't think I've ever said Cameron was a great politician. What I have said is that he was the best Prime Minister (bar the very special case of Maggie) of the last* 50 years. Not the same thing.
*Probably the next 50 years as well, the way things are going!
But the panic from hard left wing twitter accounts is palpable.
It's odd. You'd almost think that endlessly trying to deselect your own MPs was something that would make you celebrate them leaving of their own accord - they are the enemy after all. Yet the idea of them going makes pants be shat. Why?
I have no doubt at all that both Tory and Labour MPs will leave their parties in the next few months, but I expect a vote to be the final straw prompting that - no point leaving now to form a "Stop Brexit" group as the one thing they cannot hope to do is stop Brexit
Ah, it is 'bring up old stories' day tomorrow then? The Labour story at least you can envisage some MPs just having had enough, but Bercow is too valuable to too many people, left and right, to be vulnerable.
But the panic from hard left wing twitter accounts is palpable.
Is it? Or is it not excitement of playing into their hands? McDonnell and Corbyn brought out a GE manifesto two years ago not so very different than Ed’s in 2015. And Ed’s wasn’t all the different from brown and Blair’s. the point is economically speaking, which is main factor in deciding party membership, there’s not a heck of a difference between manifesto Leslie and chuck would right and corbyn McDonnell. The SDP thing was completely different, that was Europe. Corbyns not in such different place than chuck and Leslie regards Europe. Not economics, not Europe, why then split?
There are some people in all this I do feel a bit sorry for, and that's relatively quiet MPs who have not been super loyal Corbynistas but have not been constantly leaking and moaning and agitating either. Because if a number leave and actually set up a new grouping of some kind, they will probably be hounded by the praetorian guard, since even as the leadership would probably seek to draw those who remain closer together, those who are already saying 'good riddance' to the Umunna's of the world would probably be on the hunt for the next most likely suspect, constantly asking them about their loyalty, or even counter intuitively encouraging them to jump as they are not seen as fervent enough.
If Labour does split (I still think Chukka will bottle it personally) the governments got to call an election in the Summer (under new leadership obviously)
Conservatives will never have a better chance of securing a landslide.
Am I the only person becoming evermore sanguine about No Deal?
Project Apocalypse has just gone so far it has lost all impact (the Queen will be evacuated? I mean, really? The Royal Family stayed in London during the Blitz, for feck's sake). Also the endless tedious Brexit party-politicking has made me switch off, it's too boring.
The end result is I now don't give a fuck if we No Deal Brexit, I don't think it will be that bad - we can see the mitigation already happening - and I reckon the EU will be eager to mend fences and build bridges very quickly. We will be in a much stronger position once we are out and entirely free. Yes we will suffer, but the EU will have to negotiate with us as a relative equal, like Canada, rather than a captive supplicant, like Greece.
Even if I am horribly wrong, that is my psychology. I suspect it is shared.
All No Deal will do is aggravate the crisis. It is the absence of a deal, not an alternative to it. It's viable only if we never have any arrangement with the EU on anything at all, ever. So it's not viable at all. It's simply displacement activity to avoid facing reality.
Everyone will want to avoid disaster.
I think this is a misconception. Everyone says they want to avoid that. But they have also stuck to positions which will lead to what they say will be disaster, and focus on who to blame rather than prevent it. Why would that change?
If Labour does split (I still think Chukka will bottle it personally) the governments got to call an election in the Summer (under new leadership obviously)
Conservatives will never have a better chance of securing a landslide.
They don't deserve such an outcome. If the Labour rebels, any of them, split, I hope some Tories join them - both sides need to be spooked like mad, even if both overcome their rebels.
Anyway, if any Labour MPs are splitting please do it tomorrow so as not to either drag it out into the week, or bottle it altogether, but please wait until after 9am, I'm a late riser and wouldn't want to miss the moment.
There are some people in all this I do feel a bit sorry for, and that's relatively quiet MPs who have not been super loyal Corbynistas but have not been constantly leaking and moaning and agitating either. Because if a number leave and actually set up a new grouping of some kind, they will probably be hounded by the praetorian guard, since even as the leadership would probably seek to draw those who remain closer together, those who are already saying 'good riddance' to the Umunna's of the world would probably be on the hunt for the next most likely suspect, constantly asking them about their loyalty, or even counter intuitively encouraging them to jump as they are not seen as fervent enough.
Anyway, if any Labour MPs are splitting please do it tomorrow so as not to either drag it out into the week, or bottle it altogether, but please wait until after 9am, I'm a late riser and wouldn't want to miss the moment.
If Labour does split (I still think Chukka will bottle it personally) the governments got to call an election in the Summer (under new leadership obviously)
Conservatives will never have a better chance of securing a landslide.
They don't deserve such an outcome. If the Labour rebels, any of them, split, I hope some Tories join them - both sides need to be spooked like mad, even if both overcome their rebels.
Well it doesn't matter who "deserves" what. The fact is we know from history when the Labour vote splits Con get landslides...
Delusional. Cameron was a decent, capable leader who then fucked up MAJORLY - thanks entirely to his own faults and flaws - and he fucked up in a way that was so epically bad, it is the only thing for which he will be remembered.
In the end Cameron just turned out to be a pallid remake of Blair - with Brexit replacing the Iraq War - but Blair was, at first, more charming, more intuitive, and got better majorities, and was thus a superior politician to Cameron.
An odd view from someone who voted Leave. You should be grateful to and admiring of him for giving you the opportunity to vote to get us out of the "stagnating empire, which appears incapable of any serious and sensible reform", even at the cost of his own career and reputation.
Do those MPs who are saying "We will only stay in this anti-semitic Labour party if we get our way on frustrating Brexit" realise just how hideous that looks?
Even if the Deal was as great as you say (I think this is laughable bollocks), you have to admit your hero Cameron fucked up the optics. FFS even the CABINET thought the Deal was terrible. Apparently when Cameron told them what he'd achieved, at Number 10, he was met with a terrible stony silence around the table. Tumbleweed. Everyone know it was a stinker, compared to the radical reform he had promised.
Then it was focus-grouped and public reaction was even worse: this Deal sucks,
Hence the fact the Deal was swiftly forgotten and unmentioned during the campaign BY THE REMAIN SIDE. They already knew from internal polling it was going down like a cup of cold Frenchman's sick.
You are clearly not a stupid man, but you have a stupid opinion: that David Cameron was a very good politician, likewise George Osborne. The loss of the EU referendum, thanks to his own howling errors, is proof positive that Cameron was a fucking TERRIBLE politician, inasmuch as he was a mediocrity who greatly over-rated his abilities (first to negotiate, then to campaign), and this, fatally, led to him presiding over the absolute opposite of what he wanted, and to Brexit being chiselled on his political gravestone.
This is inarguable. Your dimness on this bewilders me.
Actually I don't think I've ever said Cameron was a great politician. What I have said is that he was the best Prime Minister (bar the very special case of Maggie) of the last* 50 years. Not the same thing.
*Probably the next 50 years as well, the way things are going!
Delusional. Cameron was a decent, capable leader who then fucked up MAJORLY - thanks entirely to his own faults and flaws - and he fucked up in a way that was so epically bad, it is the only thing for which he will be remembered.
In the end Cameron just turned out to be a pallid remake of Blair - with Brexit replacing the Iraq War - but Blair was, at first, more charming, more intuitive, and got better majorities, and was thus a superior politician to Cameron.
I'm lost. I thought you wanted out of the EU? Cameron provided the vehicle.
If Labour does split (I still think Chukka will bottle it personally) the governments got to call an election in the Summer (under new leadership obviously)
Conservatives will never have a better chance of securing a landslide.
They don't deserve such an outcome. If the Labour rebels, any of them, split, I hope some Tories join them - both sides need to be spooked like mad, even if both overcome their rebels.
Well it doesn't matter who "deserves" what. The fact is we know from history when the Labour vote splits Con get landslides...
That's why I hope both split, that this is coordinated (though I doubt either is the case). That if one splits the other would draw together has been a major stumbling block, for the very reason you give.
Even if the Deal was as great as you say (I think this is laughable bollocks), you have to admit your hero Cameron fucked up the optics. FFS even the CABINET thought the Deal was terrible. Apparently when Cameron told them what he'd achieved, at Number 10, he was met with a terrible stony silence around the table. Tumbleweed. Everyone know it was a stinker, compared to the radical reform he had promised.
Then it was focus-grouped and public reaction was even worse: this Deal sucks,
Hence the fact the Deal was swiftly forgotten and unmentioned during the campaign BY THE REMAIN SIDE. They already knew from internal polling it was going down like a cup of cold Frenchman's sick.
You are clearly not a stupid man, but you have a stupid opinion: that David Cameron was a very good politician, likewise George Osborne. The loss of the EU referendum, thanks to his own howling errors, is proof positive that Cameron was a fucking TERRIBLE politician, inasmuch as he was a mediocrity who greatly over-rated his abilities (first to negotiate, then to campaign), and this, fatally, led to him presiding over the absolute opposite of what he wanted, and to Brexit being chiselled on his political gravestone.
This is inarguable. Your dimness on this bewilders me.
Actually I don't think I've ever said Cameron was a great politician. What I have said is that he was the best Prime Minister (bar the very special case of Maggie) of the last* 50 years. Not the same thing.
*Probably the next 50 years as well, the way things are going!
Delusional. Cameron was a decent, capable leader who then fucked up MAJORLY - thanks entirely to his own faults and flaws - and he fucked up in a way that was so epically bad, it is the only thing for which he will be remembered.
In the end Cameron just turned out to be a pallid remake of Blair - with Brexit replacing the Iraq War - but Blair was, at first, more charming, more intuitive, and got better majorities, and was thus a superior politician to Cameron.
Since Brexit is going to turn out to be awesome, I'm confused as to why you think history is going to condemn Cameron for leading us out of the EU?
If Labour does split (I still think Chukka will bottle it personally) the governments got to call an election in the Summer (under new leadership obviously)
Conservatives will never have a better chance of securing a landslide.
They don't deserve such an outcome. If the Labour rebels, any of them, split, I hope some Tories join them - both sides need to be spooked like mad, even if both overcome their rebels.
Well it doesn't matter who "deserves" what. The fact is we know from history when the Labour vote splits Con get landslides...
That's why I hope both split, that this is coordinated (though I doubt either is the case). That if one splits the other would draw together has been a major stumbling block, for the very reason you give.
There probably will be a few Tory MPs going as well but the likes of Soubry and Wollaston are very much in the minority of most Con MPs, Con members and Con voters.
The danger for the Tories is much more from a rejuvenated Farage Party than from a Blair funded vanity Party for Chukka.
There probably will be a few Tory MPs going as well but the likes of Soubry and Wollaston are very much in the minority of most Con MPs, Con members and Con voters.
The danger for the Tories is much more from a rejuvenated Farage Party than from a Blair funded vanity Party for Chukka.
There are lots of Tory MPs who are not 'remoaners' but will never support the suicidal insanity of crashing out with no deal. Probably at least a third of the MPs, with another third deeply worried about the risks.
There probably will be a few Tory MPs going as well but the likes of Soubry and Wollaston are very much in the minority of most Con MPs, Con members and Con voters.
The danger for the Tories is much more from a rejuvenated Farage Party than from a Blair funded vanity Party for Chukka.
There are lots of Tory MPs who are not 'remoaners' but will never support the suicidal insanity of crashing out with no deal. Probably at least a third of the MPs, with another third deeply worried about the risks.
Shame they all voted for "No Deal" when they all voted for A50 then isn't it?
There probably will be a few Tory MPs going as well but the likes of Soubry and Wollaston are very much in the minority of most Con MPs, Con members and Con voters.
The danger for the Tories is much more from a rejuvenated Farage Party than from a Blair funded vanity Party for Chukka.
There are lots of Tory MPs who are not 'remoaners' but will never support the suicidal insanity of crashing out with no deal. Probably at least a third of the MPs, with another third deeply worried about the risks.
Shame they all voted for "No Deal" when they all voted for A50 then isn't it?
Actually they didn't. No-one in any semblance of a right mind thought that we'd be leaving without an orderly withdrawal deal.
There probably will be a few Tory MPs going as well but the likes of Soubry and Wollaston are very much in the minority of most Con MPs, Con members and Con voters.
The danger for the Tories is much more from a rejuvenated Farage Party than from a Blair funded vanity Party for Chukka.
There are lots of Tory MPs who are not 'remoaners' but will never support the suicidal insanity of crashing out with no deal. Probably at least a third of the MPs, with another third deeply worried about the risks.
Shame they all voted for "No Deal" when they all voted for A50 then isn't it?
Actually they didn't. No-one in any semblance of a right mind thought that we'd be leaving without an orderly withdrawal deal.
A50 says we leave with or without a deal two years after it's implemented.
Anyway, if any Labour MPs are splitting please do it tomorrow so as not to either drag it out into the week, or bottle it altogether, but please wait until after 9am, I'm a late riser and wouldn't want to miss the moment.
A pleasant night to all.
To be honest, it is supposed to be next week.
The meaning of "next week" varies by region. Do you mean the week starting on Monday 18th Feb, or the week starting Monday 25th Feb?
There probably will be a few Tory MPs going as well but the likes of Soubry and Wollaston are very much in the minority of most Con MPs, Con members and Con voters.
The danger for the Tories is much more from a rejuvenated Farage Party than from a Blair funded vanity Party for Chukka.
There are lots of Tory MPs who are not 'remoaners' but will never support the suicidal insanity of crashing out with no deal. Probably at least a third of the MPs, with another third deeply worried about the risks.
Shame they all voted for "No Deal" when they all voted for A50 then isn't it?
Actually they didn't. No-one in any semblance of a right mind thought that we'd be leaving without an orderly withdrawal deal.
A50 says we leave with or without a deal two years after it's implemented.
Am I the only person becoming evermore sanguine about No Deal?
Project Apocalypse has just gone so far it has lost all impact (the Queen will be evacuated? I mean, really? The Royal Family stayed in London during the Blitz, for feck's sake). Also the endless tedious Brexit party-politicking has made me switch off, it's too boring.
The end result is I now don't give a fuck if we No Deal Brexit, I don't think it will be that bad - we can see the mitigation already happening - and I reckon the EU will be eager to mend fences and build bridges very quickly. We will be in a much stronger position once we are out and entirely free. Yes we will suffer, but the EU will have to negotiate with us as a relative equal, like Canada, rather than a captive supplicant, like Greece.
Even if I am horribly wrong, that is my psychology. I suspect it is shared.
All No Deal will do is aggravate the crisis. It is the absence of a deal, not an alternative to it. It's viable only if we never have any arrangement with the EU on anything at all, ever. So it's not viable at all. It's simply displacement activity to avoid facing reality.
Meh. Whatever. I think it's shite, now. Everyone will want to avoid disaster. If No Deal happens, a large number of small, ad hoc deals will replace. We will take a knock, for sure, but we finally will be outside a stagnating empire, which appears incapable of any serious and sensible reform.
Doubtful. The EU will say, want a deal on X? Sign the Withdrawal Agreement and we're ready to talk. At some point we'll sign. I don't think it will be long. Weeks at most.
Comments
They’re uninspiring centrist technocrats when a country is looking elsewhere.
The same could be said of other parties too - both Labour and Conservative have rather lost sight of the things that made them national parties with a purpose.
But I just don't see the point of a new small party of the centre left.
What we actually need is a mass Labour defection to a new Left Wing Party - stripping Corbyn of the title of LOTO and restoring some balance to our political system.
However, the protections on the City were excellent (and tragically will now be lost whatever happens, so we are going to lose Eurozone business unnecessarily). The opt-out of ever-closer union was an extraordinary achievement: this was the first time ever that the EU had accepted that point. The entire relationship would have been transformed by it.
In any case, you ignored my main point, which is that it was a hell of a lot better than the alternatives now available.
Begging for help.
But given 'The Brexit Party', I would think 'The Anti-Brexit Party' would be the way to go.
Perhaps a flaking or sloughing off.
But the panic from hard left wing twitter accounts is palpable.
My prediction would be this new party might get to about 10% in immediate polls before people have really looked into what they stand for, before they fizzle to about 3-5% in an actual election, with their support mostly concentrated in London.
Clearly very unwell.
Do the 25th amendment now.
*Probably the next 50 years as well, the way things are going!
I have no doubt at all that both Tory and Labour MPs will leave their parties in the next few months, but I expect a vote to be the final straw prompting that - no point leaving now to form a "Stop Brexit" group as the one thing they cannot hope to do is stop Brexit
Even 4 marginals lost could be the difference given current polling.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6715137/Labour-party-edges-split-100-moderate-MPs.html
McDonnell and Corbyn brought out a GE manifesto two years ago not so very different than Ed’s in 2015. And Ed’s wasn’t all the different from brown and Blair’s. the point is economically speaking, which is main factor in deciding party membership, there’s not a heck of a difference between manifesto Leslie and chuck would right and corbyn McDonnell. The SDP thing was completely different, that was Europe. Corbyns not in such different place than chuck and Leslie regards Europe.
Not economics, not Europe, why then split?
1. They can't win their current Labour seats; and
2. standing in marginals will hurt Labour most?
Conservatives will never have a better chance of securing a landslide.
https://twitter.com/seanjonesqc/status/1097274686004756480
A pleasant night to all.
What a pathetic political class we have right now. And that is across all parties. A plague on all their houses.
That's tomorrow's defection/split off for a day or two then?
The danger for the Tories is much more from a rejuvenated Farage Party than from a Blair funded vanity Party for Chukka.
Chuka Umunna
Luciana Berger
Chris Leslie
Not sure about the fourth. Gavin Shuker looks likely.
13% majority ...
Mike Gapes is much more likely, or possibly Angela Smith.
Edit - was a deleted tweet linking to this article: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/sep/13/chuka-umunna-quits-over-jeremy-corbyns-eu-stance
So they kind of did...