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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Six weeks tomorrow could mark the beginning of the end for the

SystemSystem Posts: 12,172
edited February 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Six weeks tomorrow could mark the beginning of the end for the United Kingdom as we know it

One of the features of Brexit, particularly a no deal one, is the impact that it could have on the integrity of the United Kingdom.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    First - but I really don't get how anyone can think that the UK will remain whole if we leave the EU.

    Northern Ireland and Scotland will be doing everything they can to leave the UK...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Second!
  • I am not a number!
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    edited February 2019
    Fourth like the new centre party, if they're lucky.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Fifth like Boris
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    If only one could have confidence that our Parliamentarians are capable of rising to the occasion.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,219
    Can't see Wales departing from England, not in my lifetime anyway no matter what Scotland and N Ireland do.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    edited February 2019
    Tough on antisemitism, tough on the causes of antisemitism....

    A Labour activist suspended over allegations of antisemitism has been appointed to the board of a left-wing group whose president is John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor.

    Jackie Walker was suspended by the party after she claimed that Jews were the “chief financiers” of the slave trade.

    At the weekend she was elected to the board of the Labour Representation Committee (LRC). Mr McDonnell was re-elected as the body’s president. The group’s website also says that it carried a motion against Labour’s adoption of the International Holocaust Remembrance Association (IHRA) definition of antisemitism.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/leftwingers-appoint-jackie-walker-activist-suspended-over-antisemitism-claims-m0q3kpkh2
  • Late and disorganised for the new thread just like Chris Grayling.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Personally I struggle to see what benefit we get by hanging onto Northern Ireland, which requires a significant public subsidy. Let's fund the NHS instead?
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    Cyclefree said:

    If only one could have confidence that our Parliamentarians are capable of rising to the occasion.

    If we had parliamentarians who could put a case as objectively and cogently as your posts yesterday ms cyclefree we would not be in the appalling position we now find ourselves.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    IanB2 said:

    Personally I struggle to see what benefit we get by hanging onto Northern Ireland, which requires a significant public subsidy. Let's fund the NHS instead?

    If being a net benefit is a requirement of being part of the U.K. there are many places that can be ditched.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Personally I struggle to see what benefit we get by hanging onto Northern Ireland, which requires a significant public subsidy. Let's fund the NHS instead?

    If being a net benefit is a requirement of being part of the U.K. there are many places that can be ditched.
    I don't see any that are anything like as troublesome.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Personally I struggle to see what benefit we get by hanging onto Northern Ireland, which requires a significant public subsidy. Let's fund the NHS instead?

    If being a net benefit is a requirement of being part of the U.K. there are many places that can be ditched.
    I don't see any that are anything like as troublesome.
    Ah, so we ditch them because they are a bit of a bother? Despite them wanting to remain in the U.K.?
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    edited February 2019
    Well the Little Englanders (including the usual suspects on here) will be delighted to have destroyed the country. And when Wales rejoins the EU I shall certainly look forward to getting my EU citizenship back.
  • IanB2 said:

    Personally I struggle to see what benefit we get by hanging onto Northern Ireland, which requires a significant public subsidy. Let's fund the NHS instead?

    I'm quite happy to see Northern Ireland reunify with the Republic of Ireland, but I do hope that my family don't follow your reasoning when I am old and decrepit and providing little benefit to them.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    Incidentally, re the discussion on the IS girl (fpt), there are a lot of people assuming that she was brainwashed. Maybe. But it is just as likely that she chose to do what she did and has not been brainwashed at all.

    At the time the father of one of the three girls was paraded all over the TV and in front of a Parliamentary committee wailing about how he could not possibly understand how his little girl could do such a thing. It then turned out that the father had attended various marches and rallies organised by jihadists and extremist speakers. In short, the innocent daughter learnt her extremism from her father who had, at best, dissembled about his responsibility for his daughter's actions.

    That bit was not as widely canvassed all over the TV of course.

    It would be nice to think that the only reason why people do these horrible things is because they have been brainwashed. Ergo they cannot be responsible. So we must treat them as a victim without more inquiry. A more realistic and sceptical approach would realise that there are some (maybe the majority) who do it because they believe that this is their religious duty and that it makes sense to them, even if it does not to us. Believing something we find inexplicable and acting on that belief does not mean that a person should be excused the consequences of their actions.

    And, frankly, given the risks that the IS ideology still poses - even as its Caliphate vanishes - our politicians should be considering the security of people here before worrying about a jihadist sitting in a Syrian camp.
  • Agree there will be a "cards up in the air" moment on the Union if Brexit is at all messy.

    Disagree that Wales will feature strongly in that. They barely scraped enough votes together for what was then a slightly souped-up county council, there's no massive difference of opinion on Brexit compared to England, and the ties to the motherland are stronger
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042

    Late and disorganised for the new thread just like Chris Grayling.

    Grayling would give a contract to a blogger with no blog and pay a consultant £500,000 to read the non-existent blog posts.
  • I would be very happy to see both unification in Ireland and independence for Scotland. If Brexit does bring these about then for me it would be a bonus. I doubt Wales would make any move for separation given they voted in favour of Brexit
  • Interesting thread from Theo Bertram:
    https://twitter.com/theobertram/status/1096071268040871937
  • Article 13. Apparently the text has been revised to make it even worse.

    https://twitter.com/carryonmyflower/status/1095787648612995073
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Great plastic cake jibe at Labour from Grieve.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    edited February 2019

    Late and disorganised for the new thread just like Chris Grayling.

    Grayling would give a contract to a blogger with no blog and pay a consultant £500,000 to read the non-existent blog posts.
    I will happily accept the reader job, where do I apply?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    Article 13. Apparently the text has been revised to make it even worse.

    https://twitter.com/carryonmyflower/status/1095787648612995073

    The EU just want control over everything.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    edited February 2019
    Cyclefree said:

    Incidentally, re the discussion on the IS girl (fpt), there are a lot of people assuming that she was brainwashed. Maybe. But it is just as likely that she chose to do what she did and has not been brainwashed at all.

    At the time the father of one of the three girls was paraded all over the TV and in front of a Parliamentary committee wailing about how he could not possibly understand how his little girl could do such a thing. It then turned out that the father had attended various marches and rallies organised by jihadists and extremist speakers. In short, the innocent daughter learnt her extremism from her father who had, at best, dissembled about his responsibility for his daughter's actions.
    Q
    That bit was not as widely canvassed all over the TV of course.

    It would be nice to think that the only reason why people do these horrible things is because they have been brainwashed. Ergo they cannot be responsible. So we must treat them as a victim without more inquiry. A more realistic and sceptical approach would realise that there are some (maybe the majority) who do it because they believe that this is their religious duty and that it makes sense to them, even if it does not to us. Believing something we find inexplicable and acting on that belief does not mean that a person should be excused the consequences of their actions.

    And, frankly, given the risks that the IS ideology still poses - even as its Caliphate vanishes - our politicians should be considering the security of people here before worrying about a jihadist sitting in a Syrian camp.

    A passionate and well argued post as ever, with which I have much sympathy.
    However. What if the Syrians do, as they should, exactly what we would expect our own government to do in a similar situation? That is, put her on a plane to her own country?
    She was radicalised here.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Grieve threatening to withdraw all support from the government.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,084
    Having lost our voice in Brussels, I am not at all sure that Scotland's position improves by losing our voice in London. Meanwhile the right wing nutters who think that doing Putin's will and ending the United Kingdom is a good thing should be locked up for their own protection.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    edited February 2019

    Article 13. Apparently the text has been revised to make it even worse.

    https://twitter.com/carryonmyflower/status/1095787648612995073

    Last September’s version of Article 13 excluded small businesses, but that’s no longer the case. If a service is publicly available for less than three years, with fewer than five million unique visitors per month, and an annual turnover of less than €10 million, only then it is excluded.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Cyclefree said:

    Incidentally, re the discussion on the IS girl (fpt), there are a lot of people assuming that she was brainwashed. Maybe. But it is just as likely that she chose to do what she did and has not been brainwashed at all.

    At the time the father of one of the three girls was paraded all over the TV and in front of a Parliamentary committee wailing about how he could not possibly understand how his little girl could do such a thing. It then turned out that the father had attended various marches and rallies organised by jihadists and extremist speakers. In short, the innocent daughter learnt her extremism from her father who had, at best, dissembled about his responsibility for his daughter's actions.

    That bit was not as widely canvassed all over the TV of course.

    It would be nice to think that the only reason why people do these horrible things is because they have been brainwashed. Ergo they cannot be responsible. So we must treat them as a victim without more inquiry. A more realistic and sceptical approach would realise that there are some (maybe the majority) who do it because they believe that this is their religious duty and that it makes sense to them, even if it does not to us. Believing something we find inexplicable and acting on that belief does not mean that a person should be excused the consequences of their actions.

    And, frankly, given the risks that the IS ideology still poses - even as its Caliphate vanishes - our politicians should be considering the security of people here before worrying about a jihadist sitting in a Syrian camp.

    Yes, but does she believe in a hard or soft Brexit? Where does she stand on the customs union?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    IanB2 said:

    Grieve threatening to withdraw all support from the government.

    There was support originally?
  • Brexit will cause daily angst to a considerable number of people in Northern Ireland, angst that could be solved by Irish unification (while the potential angst caused by that unification would be theoretical until it exists). It's not unreasonable for that to lead to a surge in support for unification.

    I don't think the same situation applies to Scotland, much as the SNP would wish it to. While Irish unification would see Northern Ireland straight back into the EU, and the immediate end to border problems on the island of Ireland, Scottish independence would not do the same for Scotland - none of the problems created by Brexit would be automatically or immediately solved by Scotland's departure from the UK.

    Plus, the experience of untangling Britain from a 40-something year old Union with Europe would seem to pale in comparison with untangling a 300-and-something old Union with England. Every day of border chaos in Ireland, would create a seed of doubt about the potential for border chaos near Carlisle, Berwick, etc.

    Just as the mutual membership of the EU helped to usefully blur the boundaries on the island of Ireland to help make the Good Friday Agreement possible, so Brexit helps to make the prospect of Scottish independence look less possible.

    So could we have the pre-1801 Union flag back?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    edited February 2019
    RobD said:

    Article 13. Apparently the text has been revised to make it even worse.

    https://twitter.com/carryonmyflower/status/1095787648612995073

    The EU just want control over everything.
    In their wanting to screw the big tech like google and amazon, they are going to end up screwing a load of minnows. It is like the digital VAT rules all over again, but worse.
  • dixiedean said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Incidentally, re the discussion on the IS girl (fpt), there are a lot of people assuming that she was brainwashed. Maybe. But it is just as likely that she chose to do what she did and has not been brainwashed at all.

    At the time the father of one of the three girls was paraded all over the TV and in front of a Parliamentary committee wailing about how he could not possibly understand how his little girl could do such a thing. It then turned out that the father had attended various marches and rallies organised by jihadists and extremist speakers. In short, the innocent daughter learnt her extremism from her father who had, at best, dissembled about his responsibility for his daughter's actions.
    Q
    That bit was not as widely canvassed all over the TV of course.

    It would be nice to think that the only reason why people do these horrible things is because they have been brainwashed. Ergo they cannot be responsible. So we must treat them as a victim without more inquiry. A more realistic and sceptical approach would realise that there are some (maybe the majority) who do it because they believe that this is their religious duty and that it makes sense to them, even if it does not to us. Believing something we find inexplicable and acting on that belief does not mean that a person should be excused the consequences of their actions.

    And, frankly, given the risks that the IS ideology still poses - even as its Caliphate vanishes - our politicians should be considering the security of people here before worrying about a jihadist sitting in a Syrian camp.

    A passionate and well argued post as ever, with which I have much sympathy.
    However. What if the Syrians do, as they should, exactly what we would expect our own government to do in a similar situation? That is, put her on a plane to her own country?
    She was radicalised here.
    I'd have (even) more sympathy with prosecuting the father, in the case Cyclefree eloquently outlines. I don't rule it out for her either. But if I was her lawyer, I'd be heading down some good-looking avenues for defence and mitigation.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,253
    edited February 2019
    I see the logic of a united Ireland. Perhaps Brexit makes it inevitable. Scotland must surely go too before too long and then - sure why not - Wales. All very well and democratic and brilliant yet as far as I'm concerned very sad too. Always sad when things that used to work no longer do. Look at me.

    And I can't say I fancy the prospect politically - a nightmare of perpetual Tory government broken only by the occasional spell in power of Ingerland Forever (or whatever this new nationalist party of Nigel's ends up being called).
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    dixiedean said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Incidentally, re the discussion on the IS girl (fpt), there are a lot of people assuming that she was brainwashed. Maybe. But it is just as likely that she chose to do what she did and has not been brainwashed at all.

    At the time the father of one of the three girls was paraded all over the TV and in front of a Parliamentary committee wailing about how he could not possibly understand how his little girl could do such a thing. It then turned out that the father had attended various marches and rallies organised by jihadists and extremist speakers. In short, the innocent daughter learnt her extremism from her father who had, at best, dissembled about his responsibility for his daughter's actions.

    That bit was not as widely canvassed all over the TV of course.

    It would be nice to think that the only reason why people do these horrible things is because they have been brainwashed. Ergo they cannot be responsible. So we must treat them as a victim without more inquiry. A more realistic and sceptical approach would realise that there are some (maybe the majority) who do it because they believe that this is their religious duty and that it makes sense to them, even if it does not to us. Believing something we find inexplicable and acting on that belief does not mean that a person should be excused the consequences of their actions.

    And, frankly, given the risks that the IS ideology still poses - even as its Caliphate vanishes - our politicians should be considering the security of people here before worrying about a jihadist sitting in a Syrian camp.

    A passionate and well argued post as ever, with which I have much sympathy.
    However. What if the Syrians do, as they should, exactly what we would expect our own government to do in a similar situation? That is, put her on a plane to her own country?
    She was radicalised here.
    If the Syrians are as inept at deporting foreign criminals as we are, it'll be years before we have to worry about that.

    The Syrians should investigate whether she has committed any crimes on their territory. And if she has, prosecute.

    It is difficult for us to prosecute unless we can get the evidence which would be challenging without the co-operation of the Syrian authorities.

    If she is sent here, I would arrest her pending an investigation into whether she has committed any crimes (as well as for her own safety and ours - she is unrepentant about her allegiance to IS) and take the child into care so that it can be brought up by a decent family. If she is released, she should be made to go into the Prevent programme and kept under close observation until we can be confident that she is no longer a danger.

    But I would not strive to bring her back here.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,725
    Cicero said:

    Having lost our voice in Brussels, I am not at all sure that Scotland's position improves by losing our voice in London. Meanwhile the right wing nutters who think that doing Putin's will and ending the United Kingdom is a good thing should be locked up for their own protection.

    Technically there's nothing to stop a sovereign Scotland, England and Wales from concluding a defence treaty that essentially replicates the status quo.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    kinabalu said:

    I see the logic of a united Ireland. Perhaps Brexit makes it inevitable. Scotland must surely go too before too long and then - sure why not - Wales. All very well and democratic and brilliant yet as far as I'm concerned very sad too. Always sad when things that used to work no longer do. Look at me.

    And I can't say I fancy the prospect politically - a nightmare of perpetual Tory government broken only by the occasional spell in power of Ingerland Forever (or whatever this new nationalist party of Nigel's ends up being called).

    Interesting that the evolution of the UK was to devolve more powers to the constituent nations, whereas the opposite is true for the EU.
  • kinabalu said:

    I see the logic of a united Ireland. Perhaps Brexit makes it inevitable. Scotland must surely go too before too long and then - sure why not - Wales. All very well and democratic and brilliant yet as far as I'm concerned very sad too. Always sad when things that used to work no longer do. Look at me.

    And I can't say I fancy the prospect politically - a nightmare of perpetual Tory government broken only by the occasional spell in power of Ingerland Forever (or whatever this new nationalist party of Nigel's ends up being called).

    Wales is going nowhere and neither is Scotland
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,725
    RobD said:

    kinabalu said:

    I see the logic of a united Ireland. Perhaps Brexit makes it inevitable. Scotland must surely go too before too long and then - sure why not - Wales. All very well and democratic and brilliant yet as far as I'm concerned very sad too. Always sad when things that used to work no longer do. Look at me.

    And I can't say I fancy the prospect politically - a nightmare of perpetual Tory government broken only by the occasional spell in power of Ingerland Forever (or whatever this new nationalist party of Nigel's ends up being called).

    Interesting that the evolution of the UK was to devolve more powers to the constituent nations, whereas the opposite is true for the EU.
    Evolution of the UK? Does your version of history only cover the period of your adult life?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    RobD said:

    kinabalu said:

    I see the logic of a united Ireland. Perhaps Brexit makes it inevitable. Scotland must surely go too before too long and then - sure why not - Wales. All very well and democratic and brilliant yet as far as I'm concerned very sad too. Always sad when things that used to work no longer do. Look at me.

    And I can't say I fancy the prospect politically - a nightmare of perpetual Tory government broken only by the occasional spell in power of Ingerland Forever (or whatever this new nationalist party of Nigel's ends up being called).

    Interesting that the evolution of the UK was to devolve more powers to the constituent nations, whereas the opposite is true for the EU.
    Evolution of the UK? Does your version of history only cover the period of your adult life?
    Recent evolution ;)
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    dixiedean said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Incidentally, re the discussion on the IS girl (fpt), there are a lot of people assuming that she was brainwashed. Maybe. But it is just as likely that she chose to do what she did and has not been brainwashed at all.

    At the time the father of one of the three girls was paraded all over the TV and in front of a Parliamentary committee wailing about how he could not possibly understand how his little girl could do such a thing. It then turned out that the father had attended various marches and rallies organised by jihadists and extremist speakers. In short, the innocent daughter learnt her extremism from her father who had, at best, dissembled about his responsibility for his daughter's actions.
    Q
    That bit was not as widely canvassed all over the TV of course.

    It would be nice to think that the only reason why people do these horrible things is because they have been brainwashed. Ergo they cannot be responsible. So we must treat them as a victim without more inquiry. A more realistic and sceptical approach would realise that there are some (maybe the majority) who do it because they believe that this is their religious duty and that it makes sense to them, even if it does not to us. Believing something we find inexplicable and acting on that belief does not mean that a person should be excused the consequences of their actions.

    And, frankly, given the risks that the IS ideology still poses - even as its Caliphate vanishes - our politicians should be considering the security of people here before worrying about a jihadist sitting in a Syrian camp.

    A passionate and well argued post as ever, with which I have much sympathy.
    However. What if the Syrians do, as they should, exactly what we would expect our own government to do in a similar situation? That is, put her on a plane to her own country?
    She was radicalised here.
    I'd have (even) more sympathy with prosecuting the father, in the case Cyclefree eloquently outlines. I don't rule it out for her either. But if I was her lawyer, I'd be heading down some good-looking avenues for defence and mitigation.
    The best mitigation is that she realises the error of her ways. She has rather shot that claim through both feet, though, with her interview. "Beheaded heads in bins don't faze me" - the level of moral depravity and/or exposure to evil needed to make such a statement is horrific.

    I have much much more sympathy for the Yazidis and others who suffered at the hands of her and her kind, like last year's Nobel Peace Prize winner, Nadia Murad. These are the people we should be listening to.
  • Fwiw that rather reflects thoughts in my own household. We're for the PV but it's not a huge issue. Antisemitism is regarded as much more serious.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    Cyclefree said:

    If only one could have confidence that our Parliamentarians are capable of rising to the occasion.

    If we had parliamentarians who could put a case as objectively and cogently as your posts yesterday ms cyclefree we would not be in the appalling position we now find ourselves.

    ** blushes **

    That is very kind, thank you.
  • In addition to my previous doubts cast on Welsh independence, I think its viability as an independent state is also highly questionable (as NI's would clearly be if the question was of that flying solo).

    I'm also not convinced a large proportion of north Walians see rule from Cardiff as at all preferable to that from London. There's quite a cultural divide and poor communications between the two.. and certainly in the north-east, the focus is towards Liverpool and Manchester more than Cardiff.

    The strength of feeling, population size and unity of Scotland may push it to a different conclusion, but I don't see it with Wales.
  • Cyclefree said:

    dixiedean said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Incidentally, re the discussion on the IS girl (fpt), there are a lot of people assuming that she was brainwashed. Maybe. But it is just as likely that she chose to do what she did and has not been brainwashed at all.

    At the time the father of one of the three girls was paraded all over the TV and in front of a Parliamentary committee wailing about how he could not possibly understand how his little girl could do such a thing. It then turned out that the father had attended various marches and rallies organised by jihadists and extremist speakers. In short, the innocent daughter learnt her extremism from her father who had, at best, dissembled about his responsibility for his daughter's actions.
    Q
    That bit was not as widely canvassed all over the TV of course.

    It would be nice to think that the only reason why people do these horrible things is because they have been brainwashed. Ergo they cannot be responsible. So we must treat them as a victim without more inquiry. A more realistic and sceptical approach would realise that there are some (maybe the majority) who do it because they believe that this is their religious duty and that it makes sense to them, even if it does not to us. Believing something we find inexplicable and acting on that belief does not mean that a person should be excused the consequences of their actions.

    And, frankly, given the risks that the IS ideology still poses - even as its Caliphate vanishes - our politicians should be considering the security of people here before worrying about a jihadist sitting in a Syrian camp.

    A passionate and well argued post as ever, with which I have much sympathy.
    However. What if the Syrians do, as they should, exactly what we would expect our own government to do in a similar situation? That is, put her on a plane to her own country?
    She was radicalised here.
    I'd have (even) more sympathy with prosecuting the father, in the case Cyclefree eloquently outlines. I don't rule it out for her either. But if I was her lawyer, I'd be heading down some good-looking avenues for defence and mitigation.
    The best mitigation is that she realises the error of her ways. She has rather shot that claim through both feet, though, with her interview. "Beheaded heads in bins don't faze me" - the level of moral depravity and/or exposure to evil needed to make such a statement is horrific.

    I have much much more sympathy for the Yazidis and others who suffered at the hands of her and her kind, like last year's Nobel Peace Prize winner, Nadia Murad. These are the people we should be listening to.
    No disagreement there!
  • Sub-sample klaxon!

    It's the difference between 10% and 11% of 45% of 439 - so that's a difference of 2 [weighted] people [well, 1.98, but I rounded up].

    Plus the People's Vote reason is just one of a number of possible Brexit-related reasons, some of which might be considered to include not supporting a People's Vote, but being more general and encompassing uselessness more generally (though that also applies to the antisemitism option also).

    There's insufficient evidence for the conclusion drawn - though the result is striking nevertheless.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,622
    Scott_P said:
    That would require those 50 to Get. Their. Shit. Together.

    I would have more respect for a grouping of MPs whose basic tenet was "Fuck off with your Brexit. Not gonna happen on my watch." Those dancing around claiming to "honour the vote" whilst doing everything to block it? Arseholes all.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,914

    RobD said:

    Article 13. Apparently the text has been revised to make it even worse.

    https://twitter.com/carryonmyflower/status/1095787648612995073

    The EU just want control over everything.
    In their wanting to screw the big tech like google and amazon, they are going to end up screwing a load of minnows. It is like the digital VAT rules all over again, but worse.
    The only companies that will be able to comply with such rules are the web giants. It will be a barrier to growth for all the hypothetical EU alternatives to the US web giants that would exist if it wasn't for X. Where X is whatever the EU says is the cause of European businesses failing to compete with their US rivals this week.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Fwiw that rather reflects thoughts in my own household. We're for the PV but it's not a huge issue. Antisemitism is regarded as much more serious.
    It's so corrosive to Labours USP and their positioning as the antidote to the heartless, racist, Tories. If only the significant majority of decent Labour MPs would stand up and be counted on this, instead of the endless tutting and eye-rolling and lily-livered self-interest.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,500
    Good afternoon, everyone.
    I've just had the monthly 'report' sent out by the local MP, Priti Patel, and I quote
    'Priti will continue to work with colleagues and the Government to seek revisions to the Withdrawal Agreement as well as pressing to ensure that this country is fully prepared to leave the EU on 29 March 2019 under any circumstance.'

    Else where she says she is 'working for Witham'

    How a Hard Brexit in about six weeks time is in our interests is a complete mystery to me. However, perhaps colleagues can explain.
  • In addition to my previous doubts cast on Welsh independence, I think its viability as an independent state is also highly questionable (as NI's would clearly be if the question was of that flying solo).

    I'm also not convinced a large proportion of north Walians see rule from Cardiff as at all preferable to that from London. There's quite a cultural divide and poor communications between the two.. and certainly in the north-east, the focus is towards Liverpool and Manchester more than Cardiff.

    The strength of feeling, population size and unity of Scotland may push it to a different conclusion, but I don't see it with Wales.

    Yes, my time in South Wales rather brought that home to me. I just don't see it becoming independent any time soon. It voted Leave, which would make it more sympatico with most of the UK outside the metropolitan areas.

    NI would be a bit of a hospital pass for the Republic. Should the NI vote for it, the Republic would find it difficult to say no, but the financial and other costs would be huge.

    Scotland probably could and should go for independence if it can join the EU as a consequence.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Cyclefree said:

    dixiedean said:

    Cyclefree said:

    *snip as too long for Vanilla*

    A passionate and well argued post as ever, with which I have much sympathy.
    However. What if the Syrians do, as they should, exactly what we would expect our own government to do in a similar situation? That is, put her on a plane to her own country?
    She was radicalised here.
    I'd have (even) more sympathy with prosecuting the father, in the case Cyclefree eloquently outlines. I don't rule it out for her either. But if I was her lawyer, I'd be heading down some good-looking avenues for defence and mitigation.
    The best mitigation is that she realises the error of her ways. She has rather shot that claim through both feet, though, with her interview. "Beheaded heads in bins don't faze me" - the level of moral depravity and/or exposure to evil needed to make such a statement is horrific.

    I have much much more sympathy for the Yazidis and others who suffered at the hands of her and her kind, like last year's Nobel Peace Prize winner, Nadia Murad. These are the people we should be listening to.
    No disagreement there!
    Alternatively, what has such a young girl been exposed to that the sight of a wheelie bin full of decapitated heads doesn't cause a reaction. What appalling level of desensitisation must she have endured. Two dead children and 9-months pregnant at 19. Would the same lack of sympathy be applied to former child soldiers from the DRC?
  • glw said:

    RobD said:

    Article 13. Apparently the text has been revised to make it even worse.

    https://twitter.com/carryonmyflower/status/1095787648612995073

    The EU just want control over everything.
    In their wanting to screw the big tech like google and amazon, they are going to end up screwing a load of minnows. It is like the digital VAT rules all over again, but worse.
    The only companies that will be able to comply with such rules are the web giants. It will be a barrier to growth for all the hypothetical EU alternatives to the US web giants that would exist if it wasn't for X. Where X is whatever the EU says is the cause of European businesses failing to compete with their US rivals this week.
    This will also not just affect EU companies / citizens. It will also screw loads of content creators from around the world who use the big tech platforms to publish their work. When rules like this come in YouTube etc will take a "safety first" approach and so loads of people will find demonetisation of their work.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,060
    What's really going to be interesting is when London splits off from England ;)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,219

    glw said:

    RobD said:

    Article 13. Apparently the text has been revised to make it even worse.

    https://twitter.com/carryonmyflower/status/1095787648612995073

    The EU just want control over everything.
    In their wanting to screw the big tech like google and amazon, they are going to end up screwing a load of minnows. It is like the digital VAT rules all over again, but worse.
    The only companies that will be able to comply with such rules are the web giants. It will be a barrier to growth for all the hypothetical EU alternatives to the US web giants that would exist if it wasn't for X. Where X is whatever the EU says is the cause of European businesses failing to compete with their US rivals this week.
    This will also not just affect EU companies / citizens. It will also screw loads of content creators from around the world who use the big tech platforms to publish their work. When rules like this come in YouTube etc will take a "safety first" approach and so loads of people will find demonetisation of their work.
    I hope you've subscribed to every 9 year old's favourite Youtuber ^_~
  • Cicero said:

    Having lost our voice in Brussels, I am not at all sure that Scotland's position improves by losing our voice in London. Meanwhile the right wing nutters who think that doing Putin's will and ending the United Kingdom is a good thing should be locked up for their own protection.

    Currently our only voice in London seems to be Ruthie (I won't insult anyone's intelligence by including David Mundell) saying 'I agree with Theresa'. Not sure that would be a tremendous loss.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,253

    Wales is going nowhere and neither is Scotland

    Certainly agree about Wales. E & W is always and forever and we don't need Luther Vandross to tell us so.

    Scotland, though, is far less certain. 55/45 last time - not exactly a landslide - and with Brexit fallout so unpredictable and potentially turbulent, it would not be a massive surprise if they opt for Indy at some point in the next 10 years or so.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    Anorak said:

    Cyclefree said:

    dixiedean said:

    Cyclefree said:

    *snip as too long for Vanilla*

    A passionate and well argued post as ever, with which I have much sympathy.
    However. What if the Syrians do, as they should, exactly what we would expect our own government to do in a similar situation? That is, put her on a plane to her own country?
    She was radicalised here.
    I'd have (even) more sympathy with prosecuting the father, in the case Cyclefree eloquently outlines. I don't rule it out for her either. But if I was her lawyer, I'd be heading down some good-looking avenues for defence and mitigation.
    The best mitigation is that she realises the error of her ways. She has rather shot that claim through both feet, though, with her interview. "Beheaded heads in bins don't faze me" - the level of moral depravity and/or exposure to evil needed to make such a statement is horrific.

    I have much much more sympathy for the Yazidis and others who suffered at the hands of her and her kind, like last year's Nobel Peace Prize winner, Nadia Murad. These are the people we should be listening to.
    No disagreement there!
    Alternatively, what has such a young girl been exposed to that the sight of a wheelie bin full of decapitated heads doesn't cause a reaction. What appalling level of desensitisation must she have endured. Two dead children and 9-months pregnant at 19. Would the same lack of sympathy be applied to former child soldiers from the DRC?
    Possibly. But there are two differences: (1) the children were forced into the DRC. She was not forced into IS. (2) There is a strong possibility that it was her own family and friends who were responsible for her decision to join IS and that the level of desensitisation - or hatred for anyone deemed to be "an enemy of Islam" - needed for that decision had already happened long before she'd seen any mutilated bodies.

    I have sympathy for real victims - the Yazidi women subjected to the most appalling torture and rape and brutality and death, the Christian communities assaulted by IS, the innocent Syrians and Iraqis and Kurds subjected to their brutality. Those who made a conscious decision to choose evil from the comfort of their freedoms in a civilised country I have very little sympathy for indeed.
  • Mr. D, excepting England, of course, where the idea of a Parliament is not even a whisper on the political agenda.

    Miss Cyclefree, quite.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,500
    Cyclefree said:

    Anorak said:

    Cyclefree said:

    dixiedean said:

    Cyclefree said:

    *snip as too long for Vanilla*

    A passionate and well argued post as ever, with which I have much sympathy.
    However. What if the Syrians do, as they should, exactly what we would expect our own government to do in a similar situation? That is, put her on a plane to her own country?
    She was radicalised here.
    I'd have (even) more sympathy with prosecuting the father, in the case Cyclefree eloquently outlines. I don't rule it out for her either. But if I was her lawyer, I'd be heading down some good-looking avenues for defence and mitigation.
    The best mitigation is that she realises the error of her ways. She has rather shot that claim through both feet, though, with her interview. "Beheaded heads in bins don't faze me" - the level of moral depravity and/or exposure to evil needed to make such a statement is horrific.

    I have much much more sympathy for the Yazidis and others who suffered at the hands of her and her kind, like last year's Nobel Peace Prize winner, Nadia Murad. These are the people we should be listening to.
    No disagreement there!
    Alternatively, what has such a young girl been exposed to that the sight of a wheelie bin full of decapitated heads doesn't cause a reaction. What appalling level of desensitisation must she have endured. Two dead children and 9-months pregnant at 19. Would the same lack of sympathy be applied to former child soldiers from the DRC?
    Possibly. But there are two differences: (1) the children were forced into the DRC. She was not forced into IS. (2) There is a strong possibility that it was her own family and friends who were responsible for her decision to join IS and that the level of desensitisation - or hatred for anyone deemed to be "an enemy of Islam" - needed for that decision had already happened long before she'd seen any mutilated bodies.

    I have sympathy for real victims - the Yazidi women subjected to the most appalling torture and rape and brutality and death, the Christian communities assaulted by IS, the innocent Syrians and Iraqis and Kurds subjected to their brutality. Those who made a conscious decision to choose evil from the comfort of their freedoms in a civilised country I have very little sympathy for indeed.
    Agree. I seem to recall, to be fair that her family were worried about her; was it not one of her group that a father put his life in hazard searching in Syria for?
  • Mr. D, excepting England, of course, where the idea of a Parliament is not even a whisper on the political agenda.

    Yorkshire made a pitch for its own devolution recently. There is still hope.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,253
    RobD said:

    Interesting that the evolution of the UK was to devolve more powers to the constituent nations, whereas the opposite is true for the EU.

    Yes. Opposite directions of travel from start points at opposite ends of the spectrum. One starting from devolved and centralizing, the other starting from centralized and devolving. Perhaps they will meet in the middle.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387
    IanB2 said:

    Grieve threatening to withdraw all support from the government.

    Apparently, he thinks it is a "sacred duty" to stop Brexit.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,622
    CatMan said:

    What's really going to be interesting is when London splits off from England ;)

    And London's water costs £10 a litre.....

    And don't get me started on the cost of their electricity. Or the landfill costs for their rubbish. And as for the daily transit tolls, to commute back out of the M25 every night...
  • Mr. Me, a Yorkshire-wide mayor is nowhere near the same thing.

    It's like asking for a chocolate cake and being given a single M&M.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,622
    Anorak said:

    Cyclefree said:

    dixiedean said:

    Cyclefree said:

    *snip as too long for Vanilla*

    A passionate and well argued post as ever, with which I have much sympathy.
    However. What if the Syrians do, as they should, exactly what we would expect our own government to do in a similar situation? That is, put her on a plane to her own country?
    She was radicalised here.
    I'd have (even) more sympathy with prosecuting the father, in the case Cyclefree eloquently outlines. I don't rule it out for her either. But if I was her lawyer, I'd be heading down some good-looking avenues for defence and mitigation.
    The best mitigation is that she realises the error of her ways. She has rather shot that claim through both feet, though, with her interview. "Beheaded heads in bins don't faze me" - the level of moral depravity and/or exposure to evil needed to make such a statement is horrific.

    I have much much more sympathy for the Yazidis and others who suffered at the hands of her and her kind, like last year's Nobel Peace Prize winner, Nadia Murad. These are the people we should be listening to.
    No disagreement there!
    Alternatively, what has such a young girl been exposed to that the sight of a wheelie bin full of decapitated heads doesn't cause a reaction. What appalling level of desensitisation must she have endured. Two dead children and 9-months pregnant at 19. Would the same lack of sympathy be applied to former child soldiers from the DRC?
    Those DRC child soldiers were essentially enslaved. They did not go choose to the DRC from say Egypt.....
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,253
    edited February 2019
    Cyclefree said:

    The best mitigation is that she realises the error of her ways. She has rather shot that claim through both feet, though, with her interview. "Beheaded heads in bins don't faze me" - the level of moral depravity and/or exposure to evil needed to make such a statement is horrific.

    I have much much more sympathy for the Yazidis and others who suffered at the hands of her and her kind, like last year's Nobel Peace Prize winner, Nadia Murad. These are the people we should be listening to.

    But leaving aside whether we have warm feelings towards the girl (I doubt that many do) what are you suggesting the UK government position ought to be on the matter of her returning here?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    Cyclefree said:

    Anorak said:

    Cyclefree said:

    dixiedean said:

    Cyclefree said:

    *snip as too long for Vanilla*

    No disagreement there!
    Alternatively, what has such a young girl been exposed to that the sight of a wheelie bin full of decapitated heads doesn't cause a reaction. What appalling level of desensitisation must she have endured. Two dead children and 9-months pregnant at 19. Would the same lack of sympathy be applied to former child soldiers from the DRC?
    Possibly. But there are two differences: (1) the children were forced into the DRC. She was not forced into IS. (2) There is a strong possibility that it was her own family and friends who were responsible for her decision to join IS and that the level of desensitisation - or hatred for anyone deemed to be "an enemy of Islam" - needed for that decision had already happened long before she'd seen any mutilated bodies.

    I have sympathy for real victims - the Yazidi women subjected to the most appalling torture and rape and brutality and death, the Christian communities assaulted by IS, the innocent Syrians and Iraqis and Kurds subjected to their brutality. Those who made a conscious decision to choose evil from the comfort of their freedoms in a civilised country I have very little sympathy for indeed.
    Agree. I seem to recall, to be fair that her family were worried about her; was it not one of her group that a father put his life in hazard searching in Syria for?
    I don't recall that. There was a father of a girl in Sweden who wrote eloquently about his search for his daughter who had gone to Syria.

    Today - as expected - the father of one of the other girls who went with this girl has popped up saying she should be allowed to return and have her baby in peace.

    Abase Hussen: he took his daughter to violent extremist rallies held by banned Islamist groups from the age of 13 onwards then blatantly lied to Parliament about his activities and the likely effect on his daughter. And blamed the police, the school, the social services - everyone but himself - for what happened.

    We ought to be a damn sight more clear headed about how and why this "grooming" and "brainwashing" happens.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,219
    CatMan said:

    What's really going to be interesting is when London splits off from England ;)

    An English Tory majority forever beckons.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited February 2019
    Cyclefree said:

    Anorak said:

    Cyclefree said:

    dixiedean said:

    Cyclefree said:

    *snip as too long for Vanilla*

    I'd have (even) more sympathy with prosecuting the father, in the case Cyclefree eloquently outlines. I don't rule it out for her either. But if I was her lawyer, I'd be heading down some good-looking avenues for defence and mitigation.
    The best mitigation is that she realises the error of her ways. She has rather shot that claim through both feet, though, with her interview. "Beheaded heads in bins don't faze me" - the level of moral depravity and/or exposure to evil needed to make such a statement is horrific.

    I have much much more sympathy for the Yazidis and others who suffered at the hands of her and her kind, like last year's Nobel Peace Prize winner, Nadia Murad. These are the people we should be listening to.
    No disagreement there!
    Alternatively, what has such a young girl been exposed to that the sight of a wheelie bin full of decapitated heads doesn't cause a reaction. What appalling level of desensitisation must she have endured. Two dead children and 9-months pregnant at 19. Would the same lack of sympathy be applied to former child soldiers from the DRC?
    Possibly. But there are two differences: (1) the children were forced into the DRC. She was not forced into IS. (2) There is a strong possibility that it was her own family and friends who were responsible for her decision to join IS and that the level of desensitisation - or hatred for anyone deemed to be "an enemy of Islam" - needed for that decision had already happened long before she'd seen any mutilated bodies.

    I have sympathy for real victims - the Yazidi women subjected to the most appalling torture and rape and brutality and death, the Christian communities assaulted by IS, the innocent Syrians and Iraqis and Kurds subjected to their brutality. Those who made a conscious decision to choose evil from the comfort of their freedoms in a civilised country I have very little sympathy for indeed.
    She. Was. A. Child.

    I'm not absolving her of blame for crimes she may have committed in Syria. There is no suggestion of an amnesty.

    She does, however, remain a British citizen and possible victim in all of this, to one degree or another. Your approach to a heavily pregnant 19 year old seems to be "let her rot over there", which is frankly heartless and not a little disturbing. Especially after conceding she wasn't the one responsible for the decision to go in the first place.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    kinabalu said:

    Cyclefree said:

    The best mitigation is that she realises the error of her ways. She has rather shot that claim through both feet, though, with her interview. "Beheaded heads in bins don't faze me" - the level of moral depravity and/or exposure to evil needed to make such a statement is horrific.

    I have much much more sympathy for the Yazidis and others who suffered at the hands of her and her kind, like last year's Nobel Peace Prize winner, Nadia Murad. These are the people we should be listening to.

    But leaving aside whether we have warm feelings towards the girl (I doubt that many do) what are you suggesting the UK government position ought to be on the matter of her returning here?
    I put it down thread at 4:00 pm.

    Essentially deal with her if she ends up here but make no effort to bring her back.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,622
    edited February 2019
    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    Grieve threatening to withdraw all support from the government.

    Apparently, he thinks it is a "sacred duty" to stop Brexit.
    I'm glad that was the basis upon which Grieve sought re-election in 2017. As an independent, entirely distancing himself from the Conservative Manifesto pledge to implement Brexit.

    Oh. He didn't? You sure?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580
    edited February 2019
    kinabalu said:

    I see the logic of a united Ireland. Perhaps Brexit makes it inevitable. Scotland must surely go too before too long and then - sure why not - Wales. All very well and democratic and brilliant yet as far as I'm concerned very sad too. Always sad when things that used to work no longer do. Look at me.

    And I can't say I fancy the prospect politically - a nightmare of perpetual Tory government broken only by the occasional spell in power of Ingerland Forever (or whatever this new nationalist party of Nigel's ends up being called).

    I think that, as many others have said, there will be a period of what Geologists refer to as isostatic readjustment in political terms. The loss of left wing weight in Scotland will cause a rebalancing in England such that the overall balance will return to equilibrium.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited February 2019

    CatMan said:

    What's really going to be interesting is when London splits off from England ;)

    And London's water costs £10 a litre.....

    And don't get me started on the cost of their electricity. Or the landfill costs for their rubbish. And as for the daily transit tolls, to commute back out of the M25 every night...
    I'm sure the negotiations with rUK will go swimmingly after we lay a cable to the continent and open a desalination plant. And you'll be paying us for the rubbish in the hope of finding a half-eaten avocado. :D
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Pulpstar said:

    CatMan said:

    What's really going to be interesting is when London splits off from England ;)

    An English Tory majority forever beckons.
    History suggests that is a simplistic analysis. More likely, the two main parties (assuming they survive the current debacle) will shift (or realign) such that the two-party system continues.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,622
    edited February 2019
    Scott_P said:
    And if the ERG force a VONC - and vote out the Govt before that? So that the Brexit deadline occurs during the election camapaign - and there has been no meaningful vote by that point? That would be fun. Does May have the power to extend Article 50 without Parliamentary approval?
  • Pulpstar said:

    glw said:

    RobD said:

    Article 13. Apparently the text has been revised to make it even worse.

    https://twitter.com/carryonmyflower/status/1095787648612995073

    The EU just want control over everything.
    In their wanting to screw the big tech like google and amazon, they are going to end up screwing a load of minnows. It is like the digital VAT rules all over again, but worse.
    The only companies that will be able to comply with such rules are the web giants. It will be a barrier to growth for all the hypothetical EU alternatives to the US web giants that would exist if it wasn't for X. Where X is whatever the EU says is the cause of European businesses failing to compete with their US rivals this week.
    This will also not just affect EU companies / citizens. It will also screw loads of content creators from around the world who use the big tech platforms to publish their work. When rules like this come in YouTube etc will take a "safety first" approach and so loads of people will find demonetisation of their work.
    I hope you've subscribed to every 9 year old's favourite Youtuber ^_~
    Are you refering to a certain gentleman of Swedish extraction?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,500
    edited February 2019
    Anorak said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Anorak said:

    Cyclefree said:

    dixiedean said:

    Cyclefree said:

    *snip as too long for Vanilla*

    I'd have (even) more sympathy with prosecuting the father, in the case Cyclefree eloquently outlines. I don't rule it out for her either. But if I was her lawyer, I'd be heading down some good-looking avenues for defence and mitigation.
    The best mitigation is that she realises the error of her ways. She has rather shot that claim through both feet, though, with her interview. "Beheaded heads in bins don't faze me" - the level of moral depravity and/or exposure to evil needed to make such a statement is horrific.

    I have much much more sympathy for the Yazidis and others who suffered at the hands of her and her kind, like last year's Nobel Peace Prize winner, Nadia Murad. These are the people we should be listening to.
    Possibly. But there are two differences: (1) the children were forced into the DRC. She was not forced into IS. (2) There is a strong possibility that it was her own family and friends who were responsible for her decision to join IS and that the level of desensitisation - or hatred for anyone deemed to be "an enemy of Islam" - needed for that decision had already happened long before she'd seen any mutilated bodies.

    I have sympathy for real victims - the Yazidi women subjected to the most appalling torture and rape and brutality and death, the Christian communities assaulted by IS, the innocent Syrians and Iraqis and Kurds subjected to their brutality. Those who made a conscious decision to choose evil from the comfort of their freedoms in a civilised country I have very little sympathy for indeed.
    She. Was. A. Child.

    I'm not absolving her of blame for crimes she may have committed in Syria. There is no suggestion of an amnesty.

    She does, however, remain a British citizen and possible victim in all of this, to one degree or another. Your approach to a heavily pregnant 19 year old seems to be "let her rot over there", which is frankly heartless and not a little disturbing. Especially after conceding she wasn't the one responsible for the decision to go in the first place.
    The curse of the trim. I said that, trying to respond to Mr A's point.

    While I have some sympathy for the fact that she is pregnant, what view would we take of a 19 year old man who had gone to Syria at 15 and taken up arms?
    Ms Cyclefree I'm grateful for your information upthread on her parents activity before he 'flight'.
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 684
    Pulpstar said:

    CatMan said:

    What's really going to be interesting is when London splits off from England ;)

    An English Tory majority forever beckons.
    You think after that degree of disruption to the body politic England-without-London would stick with FPTP?
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    kinabalu said:

    I see the logic of a united Ireland. Perhaps Brexit makes it inevitable. Scotland must surely go too before too long and then - sure why not - Wales. All very well and democratic and brilliant yet as far as I'm concerned very sad too. Always sad when things that used to work no longer do. Look at me.

    And I can't say I fancy the prospect politically - a nightmare of perpetual Tory government broken only by the occasional spell in power of Ingerland Forever (or whatever this new nationalist party of Nigel's ends up being called).

    I think that, as many others have said, there will be a period of what Geologists refer to as isostatic readjustment in political terms. The loss of left wing weight in Scotland will cause a rebalancing in England such that the overall balance will return to equilibrium.
    Agree, but that's pretty thin gruel to make up for the shattering of the UK.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    CatMan said:

    What's really going to be interesting is when London splits off from England ;)

    An English Tory majority forever beckons.
    History suggests that is a simplistic analysis. More likely, the two main parties (assuming they survive the current debacle) will shift (or realign) such that the two-party system continues.
    Or, of course, having inflicted such a calamity on our country, the Tories get thrown out of office at least once, and the incoming government has the good sense to reform the voting and political system ushering in more mature politics.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Scott_P said:
    And if the ERG force a VONC - and vote out the Govt before that? So that the Brexit deadline occurs during the election camapaign - and there has been no meaningful vote by that point? That would be fun. Does May have the power to extend Article 50 without Parliamentary approval?
    Any Tory MP who supported a VONC would face deselection.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,902
    Afternoon all :)

    In London today for a Conference and walked round Parliament Square as the double decker "Leave" bus kept circling. Ah, the theatre. By the by, magical to walk down Horse Guards this morning - a part of London I don't often see but beautiful to see the Palace through the trees.

    On topic, I won't die in a ditch for the Union unlike Theresa May. If the population of Ulster votes freely and fairly to secede and join the Irish Republic fine (ditto for Scotland, Wales, Cornwall, London or Surrey not that I expect any of them to join the Irish Republic (except perhaps Surrey)).

    I suppose the thorny question (as it was before) is who gets to vote. Should the franchise be extended to Ulster-born people residing in the UK or even the Republic of Ireland and why stop there? I don't know.

    Another one of life's conundrums seems to be what (if anything) will facilitate a Labour split. 248 Labour MPs voted against the WA in mid January but I suppose if some of them were to be no longer part of the Parliamentary Party that might change. I wonder if May is hoping for a Labour split (divide and conquer) or terrified (new Party sweeps ahead in polls, some Conservatives jump ship too). She seems to have her own issues with Mr Grieve.

    Nearly 40 years on from the Limehouse Declaration and the launch of the SDP (what a mad time that was), could we be looking at something similar or very different? If they broke away now, would a new Party (along with the Brexit Party) seek to run candidates in local elections - would Labour Council groups split as well allowing for changes of control?

    Back on topic, the question for me is whether agreement to a second independence referendum would be the price for SNP support for a minority Labour administration at Westminster?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042

    Mr. D, excepting England, of course, where the idea of a Parliament is not even a whisper on the political agenda.

    Yorkshire made a pitch for its own devolution recently. There is still hope.
    Will I have to apply for a residency permit?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,253

    NI would be a bit of a hospital pass for the Republic. Should the NI vote for it, the Republic would find it difficult to say no, but the financial and other costs would be huge

    This 'Border Poll' which gets referred to, I have always assumed it means a vote of all adults across the island of Ireland, north and south, and then re-unification only follows if there is a majority in total AND a majority in NI. Have I got that wrong? Is it just a vote in the north?
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,543

    Mr. D, excepting England, of course, where the idea of a Parliament is not even a whisper on the political agenda.

    Yorkshire made a pitch for its own devolution recently. There is still hope.
    No hope. Blocked by Brokenshire earlier this week.

    https://www.centreforcities.org/blog/four-mayors-good-too-many-wasted-years-bad/

    The Government's preferred mayoralty devolution is for City Region majors, not one encompassing the whole of Yorkshire.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,622
    Anorak said:

    CatMan said:

    What's really going to be interesting is when London splits off from England ;)

    And London's water costs £10 a litre.....

    And don't get me started on the cost of their electricity. Or the landfill costs for their rubbish. And as for the daily transit tolls, to commute back out of the M25 every night...
    I'm sure the negotiations with rUK will go swimmingly after we lay a cable to the continent and open a desalination plant. And you'll be paying us for the rubbish in the hope of finding a half-eaten avocado. :D
    Any idea how long it takes to build a desalination plant? And that power cable would still have to pass through rUK territory. And Tilbury Docks will be the point of arrival for your avocadoes....

    Although independent London's ten million people crammed into tiny, multiple occupancy dwellings, rip-off prices and with filth and crime and atrocious air quality on the streets - who in London will notice the difference?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    Streeter said:

    Pulpstar said:

    CatMan said:

    What's really going to be interesting is when London splits off from England ;)

    An English Tory majority forever beckons.
    You think after that degree of disruption to the body politic England-without-London would stick with FPTP?
    Why not? It is clearly working. It provides stable governments, an opposition government in waiting, excludes the lunatic fringes from Parliament, and ensures a strong majority for the Executive.
    Hang on...
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    In London today for a Conference and walked round Parliament Square as the double decker "Leave" bus kept circling. Ah, the theatre. By the by, magical to walk down Horse Guards this morning - a part of London I don't often see but beautiful to see the Palace through the trees.

    On topic, I won't die in a ditch for the Union unlike Theresa May. If the population of Ulster votes freely and fairly to secede and join the Irish Republic fine (ditto for Scotland, Wales, Cornwall, London or Surrey not that I expect any of them to join the Irish Republic (except perhaps Surrey)).

    I suppose the thorny question (as it was before) is who gets to vote. Should the franchise be extended to Ulster-born people residing in the UK or even the Republic of Ireland and why stop there? I don't know.

    Another one of life's conundrums seems to be what (if anything) will facilitate a Labour split. 248 Labour MPs voted against the WA in mid January but I suppose if some of them were to be no longer part of the Parliamentary Party that might change. I wonder if May is hoping for a Labour split (divide and conquer) or terrified (new Party sweeps ahead in polls, some Conservatives jump ship too). She seems to have her own issues with Mr Grieve.

    Nearly 40 years on from the Limehouse Declaration and the launch of the SDP (what a mad time that was), could we be looking at something similar or very different? If they broke away now, would a new Party (along with the Brexit Party) seek to run candidates in local elections - would Labour Council groups split as well allowing for changes of control?

    Back on topic, the question for me is whether agreement to a second independence referendum would be the price for SNP support for a minority Labour administration at Westminster?

    Very unlikely that Labour would agree to that given the clear lack of appetite for it now in Scotland.Such a move would drive pro-Union Labour voters into voting Tory.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    dixiedean said:

    Streeter said:

    Pulpstar said:

    CatMan said:

    What's really going to be interesting is when London splits off from England ;)

    An English Tory majority forever beckons.
    You think after that degree of disruption to the body politic England-without-London would stick with FPTP?
    Why not? It is clearly working. It provides stable governments, an opposition government in waiting, excludes the lunatic fringes from Parliament, and ensures a strong majority for the Executive.
    Hang on...
    The lunatic fringe appears to be doing just fine under the current system.
  • kinabalu said:

    NI would be a bit of a hospital pass for the Republic. Should the NI vote for it, the Republic would find it difficult to say no, but the financial and other costs would be huge

    This 'Border Poll' which gets referred to, I have always assumed it means a vote of all adults across the island of Ireland, north and south, and then re-unification only follows if there is a majority in total AND a majority in NI. Have I got that wrong? Is it just a vote in the north?
    The border poll would be a Northern Ireland vote, but for unification to occur it would require a change to the Irish constitution, which would be a vote for the Republic of Ireland.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,622
    justin124 said:

    Scott_P said:
    And if the ERG force a VONC - and vote out the Govt before that? So that the Brexit deadline occurs during the election camapaign - and there has been no meaningful vote by that point? That would be fun. Does May have the power to extend Article 50 without Parliamentary approval?
    Any Tory MP who supported a VONC would face deselection.
    But for them, it's an article of faith to ensure Brexit.....
This discussion has been closed.