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  • tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Some pretty poor economic data for December.

    Though similar to other European countries I suspect the political uncertainty had an effect (and is likely to do so for the next few months again).

    Must keep the prospect of interest rate rises down. Every cloud and all that :D
    Or better still (for home owners), more QE.
    Check the graph to the right on the first screen https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/ - real house prices down since 2004.
    I'd like to see that chart for different types of houses and for different parts of the country.
    There's regional house price data here albeit not adjusted for inflation:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/housepriceindex/november2018#strongest-annual-growth-in-the-west-midlands-weakest-in-london

    In much of the country houses are cheaper in real terms than before the last recession.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    (the UK trade deficit has widened horribly over the last six months).

    Stockpiling for No Deal?
    I doubt it - UK industrial production would be increasing if that was the case.

    The trade deficit is increasing because we're buying ever more imported consumer tat.

    I'm sure someone will look at the data in detail to give a more precise answer.
    Not a nice chart:

    https://twitter.com/meremortenlund/status/1094898472556396544
  • Sandpit said:

    kjh said:

    I see that Hungary whose population apparently is dropping by 32,000 a year is offering mothers freedom from income tax for life if they have 4+ children a year. Sigh!

    We have to look at a different solution to the problems caused by changes in demography other than exponential reproduction which is/will cause far more serious problems to the planet.

    4+ children A YEAR???? You'd want more than tax free living!
    They are forgetting the first rule of project management:

    It takes a woman nine months to have a baby. It cannot be done in one month with nine women.
    Sceptics like you would be sidelined or laid off because you are clearly not a team player.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,279

    On topic, what's Beto O'Rourke going to do with all these donors if he doesn't run?

    Run for the senate again.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,279
    Good 538 article on the capitalised K's prospects:
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/amy-klobuchar-2020-democratic-nomination-kickoff/

    Possible VP pick ?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    On the economic figures, obviously these aren't very encouraging GDP figures. But note (a) they're just one quarter and (b) they might well be revised.

    The longer term decline in business investment is worrying.

    Of course. Why would you invest if you don’t know the basis on which the economy is going to be trading in 2 months time?

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626

    (the UK trade deficit has widened horribly over the last six months).

    Stockpiling for No Deal?
    I doubt it - UK industrial production would be increasing if that was the case.

    The trade deficit is increasing because we're buying ever more imported consumer tat.

    I'm sure someone will look at the data in detail to give a more precise answer.
    Not sure it follows that increased stockpiles of raw materials/components leads to increased production. Just taking steps to ensure it doesn't have future decreases.
  • It sounded like he was proposing pimping our armed forces out as mercs. Could be a good money spinner!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Some pretty poor economic data for December.

    Though similar to other European countries I suspect the political uncertainty had an effect (and is likely to do so for the next few months again).

    Must keep the prospect of interest rate rises down. Every cloud and all that :D
    Or better still (for home owners), more QE.
    Check the graph to the right on the first screen https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/ - real house prices down since 2004.
    I'd like to see that chart for different types of houses and for different parts of the country.
    There's regional house price data here albeit not adjusted for inflation:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/housepriceindex/november2018#strongest-annual-growth-in-the-west-midlands-weakest-in-london

    In much of the country houses are cheaper in real terms than before the last recession.
    Thanks, probably the most interesting thing about Figure 5 is that South West England has slipped behind East of England and further behind South East England. I guess it shows how much of the growth in the areas around London is driven by London itself. I wouldn't touch the flats that are going up in Woking, for example, as their value is predicated on London being unaffordable.
  • Brexit:

    There is no majority for May’s deal.

    There is a majority for May’s deal, subject to it being put to the people.

    There is also probably a majority for Norway plus, now that Corbyn has swung behind it.

    Why not vote: May’s Deal, Corbyn’s Deal, Remain?

    Remain was eliminated in the first round
  • It sounded like he was proposing pimping our armed forces out as mercs. Could be a good money spinner!
    There's a bit of a drought in the ex special forces merc market as most of them now seem to be going onto crappy reality shows. The one I caught a glimpse of last night seemed to have more emoting, tears and snotters than Call the Midwife.
  • dotsdots Posts: 615

    Brexit:

    There is no majority for May’s deal.

    There is a majority for May’s deal, subject to it being put to the people.

    There is also probably a majority for Norway plus, now that Corbyn has swung behind it.

    Why not vote: May’s Deal, Corbyn’s Deal, Remain?

    Remain was eliminated in the first round
    LOL. 😃

    Alternatively could respect first vote with threshold in second vote, remain would need 2/3 of votes or else original leave results stands.

    Thresholds fair enough for major change, innit?
  • dotsdots Posts: 615

    It sounded like he was proposing pimping our armed forces out as mercs. Could be a good money spinner!

    Not even ISIS got battle tractors
  • dotsdots Posts: 615
    Cyclefree said:

    On the economic figures, obviously these aren't very encouraging GDP figures. But note (a) they're just one quarter and (b) they might well be revised.

    The longer term decline in business investment is worrying.

    Of course. Why would you invest if you don’t know the basis on which the economy is going to be trading in 2 months time?

    Exactly. They are surpringly good figures against benchmark of most uncertainty faced since war time
  • dotsdots Posts: 615
    Nigelb said:

    On topic, what's Beto O'Rourke going to do with all these donors if he doesn't run?

    Run for the senate again.

    Seems the most likely bet.
  • tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Some pretty poor economic data for December.

    Though similar to other European countries I suspect the political uncertainty had an effect (and is likely to do so for the next few months again).

    Must keep the prospect of interest rate rises down. Every cloud and all that :D
    Or better still (for home owners), more QE.
    Check the graph to the right on the first screen https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/ - real house prices down since 2004.
    I'd like to see that chart for different types of houses and for different parts of the country.
    There's regional house price data here albeit not adjusted for inflation:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/housepriceindex/november2018#strongest-annual-growth-in-the-west-midlands-weakest-in-london

    In much of the country houses are cheaper in real terms than before the last recession.
    Thanks, probably the most interesting thing about Figure 5 is that South West England has slipped behind East of England and further behind South East England. I guess it shows how much of the growth in the areas around London is driven by London itself. I wouldn't touch the flats that are going up in Woking, for example, as their value is predicated on London being unaffordable.
    To an extent.

    But as someone under the age of say, 35, there's just so much of the south west you wouldn't much want to be.

    Sure, London, and a few other urban centres are the crown, but the South and East has a few other jewels.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,726

    It sounded like he was proposing pimping our armed forces out as mercs. Could be a good money spinner!
    There's a bit of a drought in the ex special forces merc market as most of them now seem to be going onto crappy reality shows. The one I caught a glimpse of last night seemed to have more emoting, tears and snotters than Call the Midwife.
    Thy guy called Ant Middleton on that show has an advert for a series of lectures he's giving around the country. It's the crappiest, most laughable advert out there - a real mantage. At first I thought it was a parody.

    Not that I'd say that to his face ... ;)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Some pretty poor economic data for December.

    Though similar to other European countries I suspect the political uncertainty had an effect (and is likely to do so for the next few months again).

    Must keep the prospect of interest rate rises down. Every cloud and all that :D
    Or better still (for home owners), more QE.
    Check the graph to the right on the first screen https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/ - real house prices down since 2004.
    I'd like to see that chart for different types of houses and for different parts of the country.
    There's regional house price data here albeit not adjusted for inflation:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/housepriceindex/november2018#strongest-annual-growth-in-the-west-midlands-weakest-in-london

    In much of the country houses are cheaper in real terms than before the last recession.
    Thanks, probably the most interesting thing about Figure 5 is that South West England has slipped behind East of England and further behind South East England. I guess it shows how much of the growth in the areas around London is driven by London itself. I wouldn't touch the flats that are going up in Woking, for example, as their value is predicated on London being unaffordable.
    There are thousands of those flats, and they’re springing up right next to every railway station along most main lines out of London, clearly aimed at commuters who want an expensive shoebox to live in, if they can walk to the train in the morning.
  • The macro data released this morning are really dire. Yes, the monthly GDP data are noisy and prone to revision (in truth this is the case for all official UK data, with the exception of the inflation data which are noisy but are never revised) - but still, - 0.4% is a terrible number, sufficiently bad to be most likely more than just noise. The economy has grown just 0.1% in the last 5 months. Industrial production is down almost 1% on a year ago. Construction down over 2%. On the expenditure side, business investment is tanking, and is clearly signalling recession. Only consumption and government spending propped up growth in Q4. Taken alongside the slumping PMIs, I think the chances of a GDP contraction in Q1 look more than 50:50. And of course, all this is before Brexit even happens. Time to link pensions to GDP? It shouldn't just be working age people who take the hit from this fiasco - especially as we didn't vote for it, of course.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Some pretty poor economic data for December.

    Though similar to other European countries I suspect the political uncertainty had an effect (and is likely to do so for the next few months again).

    Must keep the prospect of interest rate rises down. Every cloud and all that :D
    Or better still (for home owners), more QE.
    Check the graph to the right on the first screen https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/ - real house prices down since 2004.
    I'd like to see that chart for different types of houses and for different parts of the country.
    There's regional house price data here albeit not adjusted for inflation:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/housepriceindex/november2018#strongest-annual-growth-in-the-west-midlands-weakest-in-london

    In much of the country houses are cheaper in real terms than before the last recession.
    Thanks, probably the most interesting thing about Figure 5 is that South West England has slipped behind East of England and further behind South East England. I guess it shows how much of the growth in the areas around London is driven by London itself. I wouldn't touch the flats that are going up in Woking, for example, as their value is predicated on London being unaffordable.
    To an extent.

    But as someone under the age of say, 35, there's just so much of the south west you wouldn't much want to be.

    Sure, London, and a few other urban centres are the crown, but the South and East has a few other jewels.
    So you think that:

    Oxford
    Dover
    Southampton
    Portsmouth
    Brighton
    Milton Keynes

    Are doing better independently than:

    Bristol
    Bath
    Swindon
    Bournemouth
    Exeter
    Plymouth

    Quite possible, though I gather Bristol is a happening place.
  • tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Some pretty poor economic data for December.

    Though similar to other European countries I suspect the political uncertainty had an effect (and is likely to do so for the next few months again).

    Must keep the prospect of interest rate rises down. Every cloud and all that :D
    Or better still (for home owners), more QE.
    Check the graph to the right on the first screen https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/ - real house prices down since 2004.
    I'd like to see that chart for different types of houses and for different parts of the country.
    There's regional house price data here albeit not adjusted for inflation:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/housepriceindex/november2018#strongest-annual-growth-in-the-west-midlands-weakest-in-london

    In much of the country houses are cheaper in real terms than before the last recession.
    Thanks, probably the most interesting thing about Figure 5 is that South West England has slipped behind East of England and further behind South East England. I guess it shows how much of the growth in the areas around London is driven by London itself. I wouldn't touch the flats that are going up in Woking, for example, as their value is predicated on London being unaffordable.
    To an extent.

    But as someone under the age of say, 35, there's just so much of the south west you wouldn't much want to be.

    Sure, London, and a few other urban centres are the crown, but the South and East has a few other jewels.
    So you think that:

    Oxford
    Dover
    Southampton
    Portsmouth
    Brighton
    Milton Keynes

    Are doing better independently than:

    Bristol
    Bath
    Swindon
    Bournemouth
    Exeter
    Plymouth

    Quite possible, though I gather Bristol is a happening place.
    In short, yes. Although Bristol is definitely on the up.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Some pretty poor economic data for December.

    Though similar to other European countries I suspect the political uncertainty had an effect (and is likely to do so for the next few months again).

    Must keep the prospect of interest rate rises down. Every cloud and all that :D
    Or better still (for home owners), more QE.
    Check the graph to the right on the first screen https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/ - real house prices down since 2004.
    I'd like to see that chart for different types of houses and for different parts of the country.
    There's regional house price data here albeit not adjusted for inflation:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/housepriceindex/november2018#strongest-annual-growth-in-the-west-midlands-weakest-in-london

    In much of the country houses are cheaper in real terms than before the last recession.
    Thanks, probably the most interesting thing about Figure 5 is that South West England has slipped behind East of England and further behind South East England. I guess it shows how much of the growth in the areas around London is driven by London itself. I wouldn't touch the flats that are going up in Woking, for example, as their value is predicated on London being unaffordable.
    To an extent.

    But as someone under the age of say, 35, there's just so much of the south west you wouldn't much want to be.

    Sure, London, and a few other urban centres are the crown, but the South and East has a few other jewels.
    So you think that:

    Oxford
    Dover
    Southampton
    Portsmouth
    Brighton
    Milton Keynes

    Are doing better independently than:

    Bristol
    Bath
    Swindon
    Bournemouth
    Exeter
    Plymouth

    Quite possible, though I gather Bristol is a happening place.
    There is huge housing expansion going on around Exeter and Plymouth.
  • tlg86 said:

    (the UK trade deficit has widened horribly over the last six months).

    Stockpiling for No Deal?
    I doubt it - UK industrial production would be increasing if that was the case.

    The trade deficit is increasing because we're buying ever more imported consumer tat.

    I'm sure someone will look at the data in detail to give a more precise answer.
    Not a nice chart:

    https://twitter.com/meremortenlund/status/1094898472556396544
    Doesn't that show a decline in inventories in December?

    Is that a Christmas effect? Or something more?

    I thought we were supposed to be seeing warehouses full due to stockpiling for Brexit?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    edited February 2019

    And of course, all this is before Brexit even happens.

    Or the uncertainty is because Brexit hasn't yet happened. That uncertainty should go away in coming weeks. (Although the certainty it will be replaced by may have its fair share of continuing uncertainties....)
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,816

    Sandpit said:

    kjh said:

    I see that Hungary whose population apparently is dropping by 32,000 a year is offering mothers freedom from income tax for life if they have 4+ children a year. Sigh!

    We have to look at a different solution to the problems caused by changes in demography other than exponential reproduction which is/will cause far more serious problems to the planet.

    4+ children A YEAR???? You'd want more than tax free living!
    They are forgetting the first rule of project management:

    It takes a woman nine months to have a baby. It cannot be done in one month with nine women.
    Sceptics like you would be sidelined or laid off because you are clearly not a team player.
    I'm not going to live down the 'a year' bit am I ?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    kjh said:

    Sandpit said:

    kjh said:

    I see that Hungary whose population apparently is dropping by 32,000 a year is offering mothers freedom from income tax for life if they have 4+ children a year. Sigh!

    We have to look at a different solution to the problems caused by changes in demography other than exponential reproduction which is/will cause far more serious problems to the planet.

    4+ children A YEAR???? You'd want more than tax free living!
    They are forgetting the first rule of project management:

    It takes a woman nine months to have a baby. It cannot be done in one month with nine women.
    Sceptics like you would be sidelined or laid off because you are clearly not a team player.
    I'm not going to live down the 'a year' bit am I ?
    Give it, er, a year.....
  • edbedb Posts: 66
    I wonder how much income tax they are getting from mothers of 4+ now? Can't be much, more of a gesture policy.
  • Is deriding his previous job really that clever? We are constantly told that not enough MPs have had real life experience outside of Uni and Parliament, yet here it is made to be a massive hindrance.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    The latest guff from Leavers , a no deal ends the uncertainty .

    It’s like saying the patient is on life support but let’s just switch the machine off !
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,010
    edited February 2019

    It sounded like he was proposing pimping our armed forces out as mercs. Could be a good money spinner!
    There's a bit of a drought in the ex special forces merc market as most of them now seem to be going onto crappy reality shows. The one I caught a glimpse of last night seemed to have more emoting, tears and snotters than Call the Midwife.
    Thy guy called Ant Middleton on that show has an advert for a series of lectures he's giving around the country. It's the crappiest, most laughable advert out there - a real mantage. At first I thought it was a parody.

    Not that I'd say that to his face ... ;)
    Oh, he's that bloke is he? Out of the many Brexits available, I find the motivational bullshit one is one of the most pernicious.

    A ‘no deal’ for our country would actually be a blessing in disguise. It would force us into hardship and suffering which would unite & bring us together, bringing back British values of loyalty and a sense of community! Extreme change is needed! #nodeal #suffertogether https://t.co/4zVqegaWNi
    — Anthony Middleton (@antmiddleton) December 14, 2018
  • dotsdots Posts: 615

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Some pretty poor economic data for December.

    Though similar to other European countries I suspect the political uncertainty had an effect (and is likely to do so for the next few months again).

    Must keep the prospect of interest rate rises down. Every cloud and all that :D
    Or better still (for home owners), more QE.
    Check the graph to the right on the first screen https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/ - real house prices down since 2004.
    I'd like to see that chart for different types of houses and for different parts of the country.
    There's regional house price data here albeit not adjusted for inflation:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/housepriceindex/november2018#strongest-annual-growth-in-the-west-midlands-weakest-in-london

    In much of the country houses are cheaper in real terms than before the last recession.
    Thanks, probably the most interesting thing about Figure 5 is that South West England has slipped behind East of England and further behind South East England. I guess it shows how much of the growth in the areas around London is driven by London itself. I wouldn't touch the flats that are going up in Woking, for example, as their value is predicated on London being unaffordable.
    To an extent.

    But as someone under the age of say, 35, there's just so much of the south west you wouldn't much want to be.

    Sure, London, and a few other urban centres are the crown, but the South and East has a few other jewels.
    So you think that:

    Oxford
    Dover
    Southampton
    Portsmouth
    Brighton
    Milton Keynes

    Are doing better independently than:

    Bristol
    Bath
    Swindon
    Bournemouth
    Exeter
    Plymouth

    Quite possible, though I gather Bristol is a happening place.
    In short, yes. Although Bristol is definitely on the up.
    Go west young man. And young woman. All sorts of alternative gender also welcome.
  • edb said:

    I wonder how much income tax they are getting from mothers of 4+ now? Can't be much, more of a gesture policy.

    Have four children, become a very well-paid director of your husband's business.
  • What's the odds that HS2 will never be built?

    I've always thought it wouldn't be, even though I support it.
  • On topic: What about Joe Biden?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited February 2019
    Incidentally, my contact in the Democratic Party (very well connected) thinks neither Sanders nor Biden will run. Also the Hillary machine is not going to transfer across to any particular candidate.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Some pretty poor economic data for December.

    Though similar to other European countries I suspect the political uncertainty had an effect (and is likely to do so for the next few months again).

    Must keep the prospect of interest rate rises down. Every cloud and all that :D
    Or better still (for home owners), more QE.
    Check the graph to the right on the first screen https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/ - real house prices down since 2004.
    I'd like to see that chart for different types of houses and for different parts of the country.
    There's regional house price data here albeit not adjusted for inflation:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/housepriceindex/november2018#strongest-annual-growth-in-the-west-midlands-weakest-in-london

    In much of the country houses are cheaper in real terms than before the last recession.
    Thanks, probably the most interesting thing about Figure 5 is that South West England has slipped behind East of England and further behind South East England. I guess it shows how much of the growth in the areas around London is driven by London itself. I wouldn't touch the flats that are going up in Woking, for example, as their value is predicated on London being unaffordable.
    To an extent.

    But as someone under the age of say, 35, there's just so much of the south west you wouldn't much want to be.

    Sure, London, and a few other urban centres are the crown, but the South and East has a few other jewels.
    So you think that:

    Oxford
    Dover
    Southampton
    Portsmouth
    Brighton
    Milton Keynes

    Are doing better independently than:

    Bristol
    Bath
    Swindon
    Bournemouth
    Exeter
    Plymouth

    Quite possible, though I gather Bristol is a happening place.
    There is huge housing expansion going on around Exeter and Plymouth.
    Horsham Crawley, Broadbridge Heath Storrington,...
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,816

    kjh said:

    Sandpit said:

    kjh said:

    I see that Hungary whose population apparently is dropping by 32,000 a year is offering mothers freedom from income tax for life if they have 4+ children a year. Sigh!

    We have to look at a different solution to the problems caused by changes in demography other than exponential reproduction which is/will cause far more serious problems to the planet.

    4+ children A YEAR???? You'd want more than tax free living!
    They are forgetting the first rule of project management:

    It takes a woman nine months to have a baby. It cannot be done in one month with nine women.
    Sceptics like you would be sidelined or laid off because you are clearly not a team player.
    I'm not going to live down the 'a year' bit am I ?
    Give it, er, a year.....
    :)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,732
    edited February 2019
    https://www.facebook.com/1498276767163730/posts/2275522789439120/

    Peston: "I am told Starmer is not the happiest member of the frontbench, to put it mildly - according to multiple sources.

    He had agreed that the final part of Corbyn’s letter to May would say “if you do not accept this [Brexit offer] there will be a People’s Vote”.

    A source tells me “LOTO [the leader of the opposition] agreed to this. But then Keir discovered after the letter had been sent and published that the People’s Vote para had gone”.

    Starmer “called LOTO and was told ‘oh we must have forgotten that paragraph’”
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006

    Is deriding his previous job really that clever? We are constantly told that not enough MPs have had real life experience outside of Uni and Parliament, yet here it is made to be a massive hindrance.
    And from Wiki his past career sounds quite impressive:

    "Williamson worked as managing director of fireplace manufacturer Elgin & Hall, a subsidiary of AGA, until 2004.[9][10]
    Williamson had become managing director of Aynsley China, a Staffordshire-based pottery firm by 2005. It sold ceramic tableware and he later became co-owner. In April 2005, Williamson was quoted in reports on the consumer rush to buy items with the wrong wedding date on for Charles and Camilla's wedding. He told The Telegraph, "We've literally had fights in our own retail shops. On the first day after the announcement I went into our factory shop in Stoke-on-Trent and we had people fighting over the last plate that we had on the shop floor. I think everybody has decided that this is going to be their pension."[4][11][12][13]
    He has also worked for a Staffordshire pottery firm that made and sold ceramic tableware, of which he became co-owner, and for an architectural design firm until he became an MP in 2010"

    Outragous and misplaced snobbery. An MD and co owner of a ceramics company.
  • https://www.facebook.com/1498276767163730/posts/2275522789439120/

    Peston: "I am told Starmer is not the happiest member of the frontbench, to put it mildly - according to multiple sources.

    He had agreed that the final part of Corbyn’s letter to May would say “if you do not accept this [Brexit offer] there will be a People’s Vote”.

    A source tells me “LOTO [the leader of the opposition] agreed to this. But then Keir discovered after the letter had been sent and published that the People’s Vote para had gone”.

    Starmer “called LOTO and was told ‘oh we must have forgotten that paragraph’”

    Yeh right. Forgotten.

    Seamus just deleted it.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    https://www.facebook.com/1498276767163730/posts/2275522789439120/

    Peston: "I am told Starmer is not the happiest member of the frontbench, to put it mildly - according to multiple sources.

    He had agreed that the final part of Corbyn’s letter to May would say “if you do not accept this [Brexit offer] there will be a People’s Vote”.

    A source tells me “LOTO [the leader of the opposition] agreed to this. But then Keir discovered after the letter had been sent and published that the People’s Vote para had gone”.

    Starmer “called LOTO and was told ‘oh we must have forgotten that paragraph’”

    Good old Jezza! :D
  • Scott_P said:
    I see haulage companies are logging onto email this morning to find they will have no permit to travel in EU from 1st April.

    But it's all Project Fear isn't it? Nothing bad will happen in April.
  • Incidentally, my contact in the Democratic Party (very well connected) thinks neither Sanders nor Biden will run. Also the Hillary machine is not going to transfer across to any particular candidate.

    Hilary can run again then....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631

    https://www.facebook.com/1498276767163730/posts/2275522789439120/

    Peston: "I am told Starmer is not the happiest member of the frontbench, to put it mildly - according to multiple sources.

    He had agreed that the final part of Corbyn’s letter to May would say “if you do not accept this [Brexit offer] there will be a People’s Vote”.

    A source tells me “LOTO [the leader of the opposition] agreed to this. But then Keir discovered after the letter had been sent and published that the People’s Vote para had gone”.

    Starmer “called LOTO and was told ‘oh we must have forgotten that paragraph’”

    LOL at LOTO :smiley:
  • Mr. T, from what I gather (just vague mood music over the years) HS2 is pretty popular in Leeds.

    Might be because of transport funding disparities.

    In Northern Powerhouse terms, it makes particular sense to strength the relatively small distance links between Leeds and Manchester.

    So, going by past form, the Government may well make the London-Birmingham HS2 link, and then stop.
  • 'oh we must have forgotten that paragraph’”

    You can hear the muffled sniggering when they said that from here...
  • Will Starmer resign? Will Labour MPs form a new, non-demented party? Will the Conservatives split?

    For these questions, the acronym QTWTAIN was invented.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    notme2 said:

    Is deriding his previous job really that clever? We are constantly told that not enough MPs have had real life experience outside of Uni and Parliament, yet here it is made to be a massive hindrance.
    And from Wiki his past career sounds quite impressive:

    "Williamson worked as managing director of fireplace manufacturer Elgin & Hall, a subsidiary of AGA, until 2004.[9][10]
    Williamson had become managing director of Aynsley China, a Staffordshire-based pottery firm by 2005. It sold ceramic tableware and he later became co-owner. In April 2005, Williamson was quoted in reports on the consumer rush to buy items with the wrong wedding date on for Charles and Camilla's wedding. He told The Telegraph, "We've literally had fights in our own retail shops. On the first day after the announcement I went into our factory shop in Stoke-on-Trent and we had people fighting over the last plate that we had on the shop floor. I think everybody has decided that this is going to be their pension."[4][11][12][13]
    He has also worked for a Staffordshire pottery firm that made and sold ceramic tableware, of which he became co-owner, and for an architectural design firm until he became an MP in 2010"

    Outragous and misplaced snobbery. An MD and co owner of a ceramics company.
    I suspect that if he'd ridden above his humble beginnings of peddling tat to arseholes to become a competent, or even not mental, SecDef he wouldn't be so derided.

    As it is he the perfect archetype of the tory chickenhawk and thus deserves far more opprobrium than can be directed at him than by referring to his wilderness years in the fireplace showroom.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631

    Incidentally, my contact in the Democratic Party (very well connected) thinks neither Sanders nor Biden will run. Also the Hillary machine is not going to transfer across to any particular candidate.

    Hilary can run again then....
    Something tells me she’s seriously considering it.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    SeanT said:

    https://www.facebook.com/1498276767163730/posts/2275522789439120/

    Peston: "I am told Starmer is not the happiest member of the frontbench, to put it mildly - according to multiple sources.

    He had agreed that the final part of Corbyn’s letter to May would say “if you do not accept this [Brexit offer] there will be a People’s Vote”.

    A source tells me “LOTO [the leader of the opposition] agreed to this. But then Keir discovered after the letter had been sent and published that the People’s Vote para had gone”.

    Starmer “called LOTO and was told ‘oh we must have forgotten that paragraph’”

    How can the Starmerites tolerate this? It is blisteringly obvious the Labour leadership is lying, they will never allow a 2nd vote: they want Hard Brexit, under TMay.

    At some point the majority of Labour MPs who disagree with Corbyn must rise up. Surely?
    Print another 40 membership cards for that new party, Westminster branch.....
  • SeanT said:

    https://www.facebook.com/1498276767163730/posts/2275522789439120/

    Peston: "I am told Starmer is not the happiest member of the frontbench, to put it mildly - according to multiple sources.

    He had agreed that the final part of Corbyn’s letter to May would say “if you do not accept this [Brexit offer] there will be a People’s Vote”.

    A source tells me “LOTO [the leader of the opposition] agreed to this. But then Keir discovered after the letter had been sent and published that the People’s Vote para had gone”.

    Starmer “called LOTO and was told ‘oh we must have forgotten that paragraph’”

    How can the Starmerites tolerate this? It is blisteringly obvious the Labour leadership is lying, they will never allow a 2nd vote: they want Hard Brexit, under TMay.

    At some point the majority of Labour MPs who disagree with Corbyn must rise up. Surely?
    Sure, but rise up and do what? They can't rise up and get rid of Corbyn, they've tried that already and they know where it ends. They also can't get parliament to vote through a second referendum, because even if they had the whole Labour party they wouldn't have the votes without a decent chunk of Tory defectors, and there aren't enough Tory defectors.

    The only route I can see for them is to cut a deal with TMay: Lab-Remain + Tory-Loyalist + LD + SNP would make a majority. But nobody knows if TMay is prepared to deal.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    Will Starmer resign? Will Labour MPs form a new, non-demented party? Will the Conservatives split?

    For these questions, the acronym QTWTAIN was invented.

    Don't people have any self-respect anymore?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,155
    edited February 2019

    Will Starmer resign? Will Labour MPs form a new, non-demented party? Will the Conservatives split?

    For these questions, the acronym QTWTAIN was invented.

    If Brexit happens it will because Corbyn facilitated it

    If he had endorsed a second referendum or even remain Brexit would have been very doubtful but Corbyn would be overwhelmed in leave voting areas
  • Miss Cyclefree, to refer again to the I, Claudius episode I was just watching, your question reminds me of Antonia's* contempt for men unwilling to stand up to Caligula when he proclaims himself a god.

    *Claudius' mother, and Caligula's grandmother.
  • Dura_Ace said:

    notme2 said:

    Is deriding his previous job really that clever? We are constantly told that not enough MPs have had real life experience outside of Uni and Parliament, yet here it is made to be a massive hindrance.
    And from Wiki his past career sounds quite impressive:

    "Williamson worked as managing director of fireplace manufacturer Elgin & Hall, a subsidiary of AGA, until 2004.[9][10]
    Williamson had become managing director of Aynsley China, a Staffordshire-based pottery firm by 2005. It sold ceramic tableware and he later became co-owner. In April 2005, Williamson was quoted in reports on the consumer rush to buy items with the wrong wedding date on for Charles and Camilla's wedding. He told The Telegraph, "We've literally had fights in our own retail shops. On the first day after the announcement I went into our factory shop in Stoke-on-Trent and we had people fighting over the last plate that we had on the shop floor. I think everybody has decided that this is going to be their pension."[4][11][12][13]
    He has also worked for a Staffordshire pottery firm that made and sold ceramic tableware, of which he became co-owner, and for an architectural design firm until he became an MP in 2010"

    Outragous and misplaced snobbery. An MD and co owner of a ceramics company.
    I suspect that if he'd ridden above his humble beginnings of peddling tat to arseholes to become a competent, or even not mental, SecDef he wouldn't be so derided.

    As it is he the perfect archetype of the tory chickenhawk and thus deserves far more opprobrium than can be directed at him than by referring to his wilderness years in the fireplace showroom.
    He and Grayling are unworthy of high office
  • notme2 said:
    It's a shame Osborne didn't threaten to resign from Cabinet over the referendum idea.

    Maybe none of this would have happened and we would all be arguing about universal credit all day long.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    SeanT said:

    https://www.facebook.com/1498276767163730/posts/2275522789439120/

    Peston: "I am told Starmer is not the happiest member of the frontbench, to put it mildly - according to multiple sources.

    He had agreed that the final part of Corbyn’s letter to May would say “if you do not accept this [Brexit offer] there will be a People’s Vote”.

    A source tells me “LOTO [the leader of the opposition] agreed to this. But then Keir discovered after the letter had been sent and published that the People’s Vote para had gone”.

    Starmer “called LOTO and was told ‘oh we must have forgotten that paragraph’”

    How can the Starmerites tolerate this? It is blisteringly obvious the Labour leadership is lying, they will never allow a 2nd vote: they want Hard Brexit, under TMay.

    At some point the majority of Labour MPs who disagree with Corbyn must rise up. Surely?
    Sure, but rise up and do what? They can't rise up and get rid of Corbyn, they've tried that already and they know where it ends. They also can't get parliament to vote through a second referendum, because even if they had the whole Labour party they wouldn't have the votes without a decent chunk of Tory defectors, and there aren't enough Tory defectors.

    The only route I can see for them is to cut a deal with TMay: Lab-Remain + Tory-Loyalist + LD + SNP would make a majority. But nobody knows if TMay is prepared to deal.
    ie Theresa May's deal.
  • SeanT said:

    https://www.facebook.com/1498276767163730/posts/2275522789439120/

    Peston: "I am told Starmer is not the happiest member of the frontbench, to put it mildly - according to multiple sources.

    He had agreed that the final part of Corbyn’s letter to May would say “if you do not accept this [Brexit offer] there will be a People’s Vote”.

    A source tells me “LOTO [the leader of the opposition] agreed to this. But then Keir discovered after the letter had been sent and published that the People’s Vote para had gone”.

    Starmer “called LOTO and was told ‘oh we must have forgotten that paragraph’”

    How can the Starmerites tolerate this? It is blisteringly obvious the Labour leadership is lying, they will never allow a 2nd vote: they want Hard Brexit, under TMay.

    At some point the majority of Labour MPs who disagree with Corbyn must rise up. Surely?
    :+1:

    Corbyn is dancing around to wind down the clock to No Deal chaos.

    Trotsky would be proud.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited February 2019

    SeanT said:

    https://www.facebook.com/1498276767163730/posts/2275522789439120/

    Peston: "I am told Starmer is not the happiest member of the frontbench, to put it mildly - according to multiple sources.

    He had agreed that the final part of Corbyn’s letter to May would say “if you do not accept this [Brexit offer] there will be a People’s Vote”.

    A source tells me “LOTO [the leader of the opposition] agreed to this. But then Keir discovered after the letter had been sent and published that the People’s Vote para had gone”.

    Starmer “called LOTO and was told ‘oh we must have forgotten that paragraph’”

    How can the Starmerites tolerate this? It is blisteringly obvious the Labour leadership is lying, they will never allow a 2nd vote: they want Hard Brexit, under TMay.

    At some point the majority of Labour MPs who disagree with Corbyn must rise up. Surely?
    :+1:

    Corbyn is dancing around to wind down the clock to No Deal chaos.

    Trotsky would be proud.
    Well he would be if he hadn't had an ice pick through his head on the orders of Seumas Milne's hero.
  • SeanT said:


    They can rise up and vote for TMay's deal (perhaps tweaked by Brussels: I think that is now what will most likely happen).

    Ah, I see. That would be courageous. I mean, it's one thing to take a stand against the leadership and hope support from your own faction will see you through, but taking a stand to vote for something your own faction hates...
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Jonathan said:

    Endillion said:

    Jonathan said:

    malcolmg said:

    So man-child Gavin Williamson is playing the tough guy because he wants to be Tory leader. Anyone who thinks the Chinese will regard sending the UK’s only aircraft carrier to the Pacific as a show of strength knows absolutely nothing about the Chinese. They will consider it a pointless provocation from an ex-imperial power that used to dictate to China but never will again. And they will take it out on British businesses.

    How on esrth have we ended up with a cabinet containing the likes of Williamson, Grayling, Fox, Leadsom, etc? The Tories have absolutely nothing to offer this country. My God, we’re in the do-do.

    This truly is the worst administration since the early 1800s, when the Cabinet was decided by whether you were someone’s uncle, and if you went to the right drinking club.

    A Ministry of all the Shits.
    Whatever administration happens to be in power it will never be short of commentators who say, “this is the worst administration since De Montfort”, or similar, as the objective is to generate a call to action for its removal and replacement.

    It’s just about the most cliched thing in politics there is.
    Though very accurate in this instance
    I don’t think so. This administration has successfully dealt with one of the biggest fiscal crises the UK state has ever faced, and created the lowest unemployment in over 40 years. The education reforms have been a success, the pension reforms popular, and we’ve turned the corner on new housing builds. We are even now in a position to invest significantly more resources in the NHS.

    I consider it a success.
    Blimey. That’s a full on start to Monday morning. This administration is a basket case. The previous administration was somewhat better with the Lib Dem (we underestimated their influence at the time), but pure Tory government is a textbook example in how not to do it and a reminder on why they have only won a single majority in 27 years.
    Which specific Lib Dems and Lib Dem policies do you think were responiblre for fixing the country's finances?
    The country’s finances are not fixed. The Tories lost our AAA rating and are yet to recover it.

    That’s a bit weak. They had the biggest hospital pas of the last 50 years from Labour.

    It’s astonishing our credit rating didn’t fall further.
    We lost it years after the crisis hit, in 2014 IIRC.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,279
    Sandpit said:

    Incidentally, my contact in the Democratic Party (very well connected) thinks neither Sanders nor Biden will run. Also the Hillary machine is not going to transfer across to any particular candidate.

    Hilary can run again then....
    Something tells me she’s seriously considering it.
    Biden is by no means certain to run - but far more likely to do so than Clinton might be were he not to do so.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    SeanT said:

    https://www.facebook.com/1498276767163730/posts/2275522789439120/

    Peston: "I am told Starmer is not the happiest member of the frontbench, to put it mildly - according to multiple sources.

    He had agreed that the final part of Corbyn’s letter to May would say “if you do not accept this [Brexit offer] there will be a People’s Vote”.

    A source tells me “LOTO [the leader of the opposition] agreed to this. But then Keir discovered after the letter had been sent and published that the People’s Vote para had gone”.

    Starmer “called LOTO and was told ‘oh we must have forgotten that paragraph’”

    How can the Starmerites tolerate this? It is blisteringly obvious the Labour leadership is lying, they will never allow a 2nd vote: they want Hard Brexit, under TMay.

    At some point the majority of Labour MPs who disagree with Corbyn must rise up. Surely?
    :+1:

    Corbyn is dancing around to wind down the clock to No Deal chaos.

    Trotsky would be proud.
    Brexit is a more classically Stalinist construction. Socialism in one country, etc.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,279
    edited February 2019
    Alistair said:

    Jonathan said:

    Endillion said:

    Jonathan said:

    malcolmg said:

    So man-child Gavin Williamson is playing the tough guy because he wants to be Tory leader. Anyone who thinks the Chinese will regard sending the UK’s only aircraft carrier to the Pacific as a show of strength knows absolutely nothing about the Chinese. They will consider it a pointless provocation from an ex-imperial power that used to dictate to China but never will again. And they will take it out on British businesses.

    How on esrth have we ended up with a cabinet containing the likes of Williamson, Grayling, Fox, Leadsom, etc? The Tories have absolutely nothing to offer this country. My God, we’re in the do-do.

    This truly is the worst administration since the early 1800s, when the Cabinet was decided by whether you were someone’s uncle, and if you went to the right drinking club.

    A Ministry of all the Shits.
    Whatever administration happens to be in power it will never be short of commentators who say, “this is the worst administration since De Montfort”, or similar, as the objective is to generate a call to action for its removal and replacement.

    It’s just about the most cliched thing in politics there is.
    Though very accurate in this instance


    I consider it a success.
    Blimey. That’s a full on start to Monday morning. This administration is a basket case. The previous administration was somewhat better with the Lib Dem (we underestimated their influence at the time), but pure Tory government is a textbook example in how not to do it and a reminder on why they have only won a single majority in 27 years.
    Which specific Lib Dems and Lib Dem policies do you think were responiblre for fixing the country's finances?
    The country’s finances are not fixed. The Tories lost our AAA rating and are yet to recover it.

    That’s a bit weak. They had the biggest hospital pas of the last 50 years from Labour.

    It’s astonishing our credit rating didn’t fall further.
    We lost it years after the crisis hit, in 2014 IIRC.
    And ?

    There is a curious assumption that economic effects are somehow felt immediately, and have no consequences beyond the end of one administration and the beginning of another.

    And more curious yet that credit ratings are predictive rather than reactive.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006
    Dura_Ace said:

    notme2 said:

    Is deriding his previous job really that clever? We are constantly told that not enough MPs have had real life experience outside of Uni and Parliament, yet here it is made to be a massive hindrance.
    And from Wiki his past career sounds quite impressive:

    "Williamson worked as managing director of fireplace manufacturer Elgin & Hall, a subsidiary of AGA, until 2004.[9][10]
    Williamson had become managing director of Aynsley China, a Staffordshire-based pottery firm by 2005. It sold ceramic tableware and he later became co-owner. In April 2005, Williamson was quoted in reports on the consumer rush to buy items with the wrong wedding date on for Charles and Camilla's wedding. He told The Telegraph, "We've literally had fights in our own retail shops. On the first day after the announcement I went into our factory shop in Stoke-on-Trent and we had people fighting over the last plate that we had on the shop floor. I think everybody has decided that this is going to be their pension."[4][11][12][13]
    He has also worked for a Staffordshire pottery firm that made and sold ceramic tableware, of which he became co-owner, and for an architectural design firm until he became an MP in 2010"

    Outragous and misplaced snobbery. An MD and co owner of a ceramics company.
    I suspect that if he'd ridden above his humble beginnings of peddling tat to arseholes to become a competent, or even not mental, SecDef he wouldn't be so derided.

    As it is he the perfect archetype of the tory chickenhawk and thus deserves far more opprobrium than can be directed at him than by referring to his wilderness years in the fireplace showroom.
    Is that not like saying the CEO of BMW is a showroom salesman?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    The alternatives to May's deal remain impossible.
    May's deal remains improbable.

    Improbable > impossible.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    TOPPING said:

    The alternatives to May's deal remain impossible.
    May's deal remains improbable.

    Improbable > impossible.

    https://twitter.com/pauldalyesq/status/1094926260340490247
  • Dura_Ace said:

    notme2 said:

    Is deriding his previous job really that clever? We are constantly told that not enough MPs have had real life experience outside of Uni and Parliament, yet here it is made to be a massive hindrance.
    And from Wiki his past career sounds quite impressive:

    "Williamson worked as managing director of fireplace manufacturer Elgin & Hall, a subsidiary of AGA, until 2004.[9][10]
    Williamson had become managing director of Aynsley China, a Staffordshire-based pottery firm by 2005. It sold ceramic tableware and he later became co-owner. In April 2005, Williamson was quoted in reports on the consumer rush to buy items with the wrong wedding date on for Charles and Camilla's wedding. He told The Telegraph, "We've literally had fights in our own retail shops. On the first day after the announcement I went into our factory shop in Stoke-on-Trent and we had people fighting over the last plate that we had on the shop floor. I think everybody has decided that this is going to be their pension."[4][11][12][13]
    He has also worked for a Staffordshire pottery firm that made and sold ceramic tableware, of which he became co-owner, and for an architectural design firm until he became an MP in 2010"

    Outragous and misplaced snobbery. An MD and co owner of a ceramics company.
    I suspect that if he'd ridden above his humble beginnings of peddling tat to arseholes to become a competent, or even not mental, SecDef he wouldn't be so derided.

    As it is he the perfect archetype of the tory chickenhawk and thus deserves far more opprobrium than can be directed at him than by referring to his wilderness years in the fireplace showroom.
    He and Grayling are unworthy of high office
    Indeed, though a large amount of the opposition front bench make them look reasonably well qualified
  • The only route I can see for them is to cut a deal with TMay: Lab-Remain + Tory-Loyalist + LD + SNP would make a majority. But nobody knows if TMay is prepared to deal.

    TMay will not go for that deal unless the revolt on the anti-no deal side of her party becomes bigger than the pro-no deal side of her party.

    I don't think that the anti-no deal side are sufficiently organised, numerous or determined to force her hand. They will march off the cliff with her and probably rationalise their inactivity by blaming the EU for not renegotiating with the PM.
  • notme2 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    notme2 said:

    Is deriding his previous job really that clever? We are constantly told that not enough MPs have had real life experience outside of Uni and Parliament, yet here it is made to be a massive hindrance.
    And from Wiki his past career sounds quite impressive:

    "Williamson worked as managing director of fireplace manufacturer Elgin & Hall, a subsidiary of AGA, until 2004.[9][10]
    Williamson had become managing director of Aynsley China, a Staffordshire-based pottery firm by 2005. It sold ceramic tableware and he later became co-owner. In April 2005, Williamson was quoted in reports on the consumer rush to buy items with the wrong wedding date on for Charles and Camilla's wedding. He told The Telegraph, "We've literally had fights in our own retail shops. On the first day after the announcement I went into our factory shop in Stoke-on-Trent and we had people fighting over the last plate that we had on the shop floor. I think everybody has decided that this is going to be their pension."[4][11][12][13]
    He has also worked for a Staffordshire pottery firm that made and sold ceramic tableware, of which he became co-owner, and for an architectural design firm until he became an MP in 2010"

    Outragous and misplaced snobbery. An MD and co owner of a ceramics company.
    I suspect that if he'd ridden above his humble beginnings of peddling tat to arseholes to become a competent, or even not mental, SecDef he wouldn't be so derided.

    As it is he the perfect archetype of the tory chickenhawk and thus deserves far more opprobrium than can be directed at him than by referring to his wilderness years in the fireplace showroom.
    Is that not like saying the CEO of BMW is a showroom salesman?
    There is an unhealthy snobbery in the UK against anyone who has ever sold anything for a living. Odd really considering we see ourselves as entrepreneurial.
  • SeanT said:

    https://www.facebook.com/1498276767163730/posts/2275522789439120/

    Peston: "I am told Starmer is not the happiest member of the frontbench, to put it mildly - according to multiple sources.

    He had agreed that the final part of Corbyn’s letter to May would say “if you do not accept this [Brexit offer] there will be a People’s Vote”.

    A source tells me “LOTO [the leader of the opposition] agreed to this. But then Keir discovered after the letter had been sent and published that the People’s Vote para had gone”.

    Starmer “called LOTO and was told ‘oh we must have forgotten that paragraph’”

    How can the Starmerites tolerate this? It is blisteringly obvious the Labour leadership is lying, they will never allow a 2nd vote: they want Hard Brexit, under TMay.

    At some point the majority of Labour MPs who disagree with Corbyn must rise up. Surely?
    Sure, but rise up and do what? They can't rise up and get rid of Corbyn, they've tried that already and they know where it ends. They also can't get parliament to vote through a second referendum, because even if they had the whole Labour party they wouldn't have the votes without a decent chunk of Tory defectors, and there aren't enough Tory defectors.

    The only route I can see for them is to cut a deal with TMay: Lab-Remain + Tory-Loyalist + LD + SNP would make a majority. But nobody knows if TMay is prepared to deal.
    But would this group maintain TMay in office. Seems unlikely to me.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Alasdair said:

    SeanT said:

    https://www.facebook.com/1498276767163730/posts/2275522789439120/

    Peston: "I am told Starmer is not the happiest member of the frontbench, to put it mildly - according to multiple sources.

    He had agreed that the final part of Corbyn’s letter to May would say “if you do not accept this [Brexit offer] there will be a People’s Vote”.

    A source tells me “LOTO [the leader of the opposition] agreed to this. But then Keir discovered after the letter had been sent and published that the People’s Vote para had gone”.

    Starmer “called LOTO and was told ‘oh we must have forgotten that paragraph’”

    How can the Starmerites tolerate this? It is blisteringly obvious the Labour leadership is lying, they will never allow a 2nd vote: they want Hard Brexit, under TMay.

    At some point the majority of Labour MPs who disagree with Corbyn must rise up. Surely?
    Sure, but rise up and do what? They can't rise up and get rid of Corbyn, they've tried that already and they know where it ends. They also can't get parliament to vote through a second referendum, because even if they had the whole Labour party they wouldn't have the votes without a decent chunk of Tory defectors, and there aren't enough Tory defectors.

    The only route I can see for them is to cut a deal with TMay: Lab-Remain + Tory-Loyalist + LD + SNP would make a majority. But nobody knows if TMay is prepared to deal.
    But would this group maintain TMay in office. Seems unlikely to me.
    It is fantastic (not in a good way).

    I fancy myself a chess player whereas I am really a hit and hope player and if I ever get to a state of mind of thinking five moves in advance I think I've done well (and then my queen gets taken at the next move).

    But working out the permutations or possibilities of this is like playing three dimensional chess at the same time as playing in goal for Chelsea vs Man City and going for gold in the 4x 100m relay final as well.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Incidentally, my contact in the Democratic Party (very well connected) thinks neither Sanders nor Biden will run. Also the Hillary machine is not going to transfer across to any particular candidate.

    Hilary can run again then....
    Something tells me she’s seriously considering it.
    Biden is by no means certain to run - but far more likely to do so than Clinton might be were he not to do so.
    Personally I’d love to see Biden run, but he’s probably too old. If he does stand, he wins the nomination though. If he doesn’t stand but endorses someone, I’d bet on that candidate winning the nomination too.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited February 2019
    TOPPING said:

    The alternatives to May's deal remain impossible.
    May's deal remains improbable.

    Improbable > impossible.

    "Alice laughed: "There's no use trying," she said; "one can't believe impossible things." "I daresay you haven't had much practice," said the Queen. "When I was younger, I always did it for half an hour a day. Why, sometimes I've believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast."

    Though the alternatives are not impossible they too are improbable. Clock running out is improbable but possible. Revoke is improbable but possible. An acceptable compromise being reached is improbable but possible.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    https://www.facebook.com/1498276767163730/posts/2275522789439120/

    Peston: "I am told Starmer is not the happiest member of the frontbench, to put it mildly - according to multiple sources.

    He had agreed that the final part of Corbyn’s letter to May would say “if you do not accept this [Brexit offer] there will be a People’s Vote”.

    A source tells me “LOTO [the leader of the opposition] agreed to this. But then Keir discovered after the letter had been sent and published that the People’s Vote para had gone”.

    Starmer “called LOTO and was told ‘oh we must have forgotten that paragraph’”

    How can the Starmerites tolerate this? It is blisteringly obvious the Labour leadership is lying, they will never allow a 2nd vote: they want Hard Brexit, under TMay.

    At some point the majority of Labour MPs who disagree with Corbyn must rise up. Surely?
    Sure, but rise up and do what? They can't rise up and get rid of Corbyn, they've tried that already and they know where it ends. They also can't get parliament to vote through a second referendum, because even if they had the whole Labour party they wouldn't have the votes without a decent chunk of Tory defectors, and there aren't enough Tory defectors.

    The only route I can see for them is to cut a deal with TMay: Lab-Remain + Tory-Loyalist + LD + SNP would make a majority. But nobody knows if TMay is prepared to deal.
    They can rise up and vote for TMay's deal (perhaps tweaked by Brussels: I think that is now what will most likely happen). My estimates for Brexit outcomes today (ignoring an A50 extension which is now inevitable in almost all circumstances) are:

    40% TMay's Deal plus tweak
    25% 2nd vote
    15% No Deal
    10% GE
    5% Revoke
    5% BLACK SWAN ASTEROID
    Out of interest, why do you put 2nd referendum above GE?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    TOPPING said:

    The alternatives to May's deal remain impossible.
    May's deal remains improbable.

    Improbable > impossible.

    "Alice laughed: "There's no use trying," she said; "one can't believe impossible things." "I daresay you haven't had much practice," said the Queen. "When I was younger, I always did it for half an hour a day. Why, sometimes I've believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast."

    Though the alternatives are not impossible they too are improbable. Clock running out is improbable but possible. Revoke is improbable but possible. An acceptable compromise being reached is improbable but possible.
    No Deal is impossible. And that looks to be all that is on offer as an alternative.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    The alternatives to May's deal remain impossible.
    May's deal remains improbable.

    Improbable > impossible.

    "Alice laughed: "There's no use trying," she said; "one can't believe impossible things." "I daresay you haven't had much practice," said the Queen. "When I was younger, I always did it for half an hour a day. Why, sometimes I've believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast."

    Though the alternatives are not impossible they too are improbable. Clock running out is improbable but possible. Revoke is improbable but possible. An acceptable compromise being reached is improbable but possible.
    No Deal is impossible. And that looks to be all that is on offer as an alternative.
    No deal is what’s already legislated for, and is what will happen unless something else can be agreed on by everyone in the next six weeks.

    Every day that passes makes it a little more likely.
  • notme2 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    notme2 said:

    Is deriding his previous job really that clever? We are constantly told that not enough MPs have had real life experience outside of Uni and Parliament, yet here it is made to be a massive hindrance.
    And from Wiki his past career sounds quite impressive:

    "Williamson worked as managing director of fireplace manufacturer Elgin & Hall, a subsidiary of AGA, until 2004.[9][10]
    Williamson had become managing director of Aynsley China, a Staffordshire-based pottery firm by 2005. It sold ceramic tableware and he later became co-owner. In April 2005, Williamson was quoted in reports on the consumer rush to buy items with the wrong wedding date on for Charles and Camilla's wedding. He told The Telegraph, "We've literally had fights in our own retail shops. On the first day after the announcement I went into our factory shop in Stoke-on-Trent and we had people fighting over the last plate that we had on the shop floor. I think everybody has decided that this is going to be their pension."[4][11][12][13]
    He has also worked for a Staffordshire pottery firm that made and sold ceramic tableware, of which he became co-owner, and for an architectural design firm until he became an MP in 2010"

    Outragous and misplaced snobbery. An MD and co owner of a ceramics company.
    I suspect that if he'd ridden above his humble beginnings of peddling tat to arseholes to become a competent, or even not mental, SecDef he wouldn't be so derided.

    As it is he the perfect archetype of the tory chickenhawk and thus deserves far more opprobrium than can be directed at him than by referring to his wilderness years in the fireplace showroom.
    Is that not like saying the CEO of BMW is a showroom salesman?
    There is an unhealthy snobbery in the UK against anyone who has ever sold anything for a living. Odd really considering we see ourselves as entrepreneurial.
    Yes. It doesn’t matter how competent or not this individual is in his current role, the implication of the tweet is that people such as fireplace salesmen are unworthy of progression to high office. Quite an elitist position to take.
  • TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    The alternatives to May's deal remain impossible.
    May's deal remains improbable.

    Improbable > impossible.

    "Alice laughed: "There's no use trying," she said; "one can't believe impossible things." "I daresay you haven't had much practice," said the Queen. "When I was younger, I always did it for half an hour a day. Why, sometimes I've believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast."

    Though the alternatives are not impossible they too are improbable. Clock running out is improbable but possible. Revoke is improbable but possible. An acceptable compromise being reached is improbable but possible.
    No Deal is impossible. And that looks to be all that is on offer as an alternative.
    Improbable but it is all too possible. And people acting like it is impossible is making it more probable sadly.

    Like WWI it seems to be not desired by anyone really but the alternatives and compromise may not be desired enough to prevent it.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    Dura_Ace said:

    notme2 said:

    Is deriding his previous job really that clever? We are constantly told that not enough MPs have had real life experience outside of Uni and Parliament, yet here it is made to be a massive hindrance.
    And from Wiki his past career sounds quite impressive:

    "Williamson worked as managing director of fireplace manufacturer Elgin & Hall, a subsidiary of AGA, until 2004.[9][10]
    Williamson had become managing director of Aynsley China, a Staffordshire-based pottery firm by 2005. It sold ceramic tableware and he later became co-owner. In April 2005, Williamson was quoted in reports on the consumer rush to buy items with the wrong wedding date on for Charles and Camilla's wedding. He told The Telegraph, "We've literally had fights in our own retail shops. On the first day after the announcement I went into our factory shop in Stoke-on-Trent and we had people fighting over the last plate that we had on the shop floor. I think everybody has decided that this is going to be their pension."[4][11][12][13]
    He has also worked for a Staffordshire pottery firm that made and sold ceramic tableware, of which he became co-owner, and for an architectural design firm until he became an MP in 2010"

    Outragous and misplaced snobbery. An MD and co owner of a ceramics company.
    I suspect that if he'd ridden above his humble beginnings of peddling tat to arseholes to become a competent, or even not mental, SecDef he wouldn't be so derided.

    As it is he the perfect archetype of the tory chickenhawk and thus deserves far more opprobrium than can be directed at him than by referring to his wilderness years in the fireplace showroom.
    He and Grayling are unworthy of high office
    It's strange though, I'm sure I remember all the pb level heads assuring us that there was nothing wrong with the Seaborne Freight contract.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    https://www.facebook.com/1498276767163730/posts/2275522789439120/

    Peston: "I am told Starmer is not the happiest member of the frontbench, to put it mildly - according to multiple sources.

    He had agreed that the final part of Corbyn’s letter to May would say “if you do not accept this [Brexit offer] there will be a People’s Vote”.

    A source tells me “LOTO [the leader of the opposition] agreed to this. But then Keir discovered after the letter had been sent and published that the People’s Vote para had gone”.

    Starmer “called LOTO and was told ‘oh we must have forgotten that paragraph’”

    How can the Starmerites tolerate this? It is blisteringly obvious the Labour leadership is lying, they will never allow a 2nd vote: they want Hard Brexit, under TMay.

    At some point the majority of Labour MPs who disagree with Corbyn must rise up. Surely?
    Sure, but rise up and do what? They can't rise up and get rid of Corbyn, they've tried that already and they know where it ends. They also can't get parliament to vote through a second referendum, because even if they had the whole Labour party they wouldn't have the votes without a decent chunk of Tory defectors, and there aren't enough Tory defectors.

    The only route I can see for them is to cut a deal with TMay: Lab-Remain + Tory-Loyalist + LD + SNP would make a majority. But nobody knows if TMay is prepared to deal.
    They can rise up and vote for TMay's deal (perhaps tweaked by Brussels: I think that is now what will most likely happen). My estimates for Brexit outcomes today (ignoring an A50 extension which is now inevitable in almost all circumstances) are:

    40% TMay's Deal plus tweak
    25% 2nd vote
    15% No Deal
    10% GE
    5% Revoke
    5% BLACK SWAN ASTEROID
    Out of interest, why do you put 2nd referendum above GE?
    Because I do not believe the Tory party would allow TMay to risk a Corbyn government. They would rather risk a 2nd vote than that, plus there may just be a majority in the Common (if the alternative is No Deal) for a new vote. There will very likely never be a majority for a GE.

    But I'd be interested in other PBers' opinions? What's your list of outcomes and percentages? Anyone?

    Perhaps indeed this could make a thread, TSE and OGH? Where we all have a vote and see the PB consensus?
    Could the Tory party really stop her?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited February 2019
    SeanT said:

    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    The alternatives to May's deal remain impossible.
    May's deal remains improbable.

    Improbable > impossible.

    "Alice laughed: "There's no use trying," she said; "one can't believe impossible things." "I daresay you haven't had much practice," said the Queen. "When I was younger, I always did it for half an hour a day. Why, sometimes I've believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast."

    Though the alternatives are not impossible they too are improbable. Clock running out is improbable but possible. Revoke is improbable but possible. An acceptable compromise being reached is improbable but possible.
    No Deal is impossible. And that looks to be all that is on offer as an alternative.
    No deal is what’s already legislated for, and is what will happen unless something else can be agreed on by everyone in the next six weeks.

    Every day that passes makes it a little more likely.
    But can you see TMay allowing us over the cliff edge on March 30th? No. If we're in the last week of March and her Deal has not passed (I think it will by that stage), then she will ask for (and get) a significant extension to A50, requesting a 2nd vote or a new GE. I reckon she'd go for 2nd vote. The third alternative is that she would let parliament decide by elimination what Brexit we have (which again requires an extension).
    I think it is unlikely but possible. One should not use the word impossible when one really means unlikely they are different things.

    There is also an unlikely but possible chance that one country vetoes our extension request if made.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Tory GDP!!
  • I have found a photograph of Brexit.

    image
  • The only route I can see for them is to cut a deal with TMay: Lab-Remain + Tory-Loyalist + LD + SNP would make a majority. But nobody knows if TMay is prepared to deal.

    TMay will not go for that deal unless the revolt on the anti-no deal side of her party becomes bigger than the pro-no deal side of her party.

    I don't think that the anti-no deal side are sufficiently organised, numerous or determined to force her hand. They will march off the cliff with her and probably rationalise their inactivity by blaming the EU for not renegotiating with the PM.
    I agree, they can't force her hand.

    But I think when it comes to the crunch the anti-no-deal side of her party will be substantially bigger than the pro-no-deal side of her party, at least in private. I'm not sure what everyone will be saying in public.
  • SeanT said:



    But I'd be interested in other PBers' opinions? What's your list of outcomes and percentages? Anyone?

    Perhaps indeed this could make a thread, TSE and OGH? Where we all have a vote and see the PB consensus?

    Probabilities for end-2019:

    No deal: 20%
    May's deal: 15%
    Softer Brexit deal: 30%
    No Brexit: 30%
    Something else: 5%

    General election: 50%
    Second referendum: 40%
  • Dura_Ace said:

    notme2 said:

    Is deriding his previous job really that clever? We are constantly told that not enough MPs have had real life experience outside of Uni and Parliament, yet here it is made to be a massive hindrance.
    And from Wiki his past career sounds quite impressive:

    "Williamson worked as managing director of fireplace manufacturer Elgin & Hall, a subsidiary of AGA, until 2004.[9][10]
    Williamson had become managing director of Aynsley China, a Staffordshire-based pottery firm by 2005. It sold ceramic tableware and he later became co-owner. In April 2005, Williamson was quoted in reports on the consumer rush to buy items with the wrong wedding date on for Charles and Camilla's wedding. He told The Telegraph, "We've literally had fights in our own retail shops. On the first day after the announcement I went into our factory shop in Stoke-on-Trent and we had people fighting over the last plate that we had on the shop floor. I think everybody has decided that this is going to be their pension."[4][11][12][13]
    He has also worked for a Staffordshire pottery firm that made and sold ceramic tableware, of which he became co-owner, and for an architectural design firm until he became an MP in 2010"

    Outragous and misplaced snobbery. An MD and co owner of a ceramics company.
    I suspect that if he'd ridden above his humble beginnings of peddling tat to arseholes to become a competent, or even not mental, SecDef he wouldn't be so derided.

    As it is he the perfect archetype of the tory chickenhawk and thus deserves far more opprobrium than can be directed at him than by referring to his wilderness years in the fireplace showroom.
    He and Grayling are unworthy of high office
    It's strange though, I'm sure I remember all the pb level heads assuring us that there was nothing wrong with the Seaborne Freight contract.
    Yes, there was plenty of hand waving by the self-proclaimed experts in business negotiations. What larks!
  • The only route I can see for them is to cut a deal with TMay: Lab-Remain + Tory-Loyalist + LD + SNP would make a majority. But nobody knows if TMay is prepared to deal.

    TMay will not go for that deal unless the revolt on the anti-no deal side of her party becomes bigger than the pro-no deal side of her party.

    I don't think that the anti-no deal side are sufficiently organised, numerous or determined to force her hand. They will march off the cliff with her and probably rationalise their inactivity by blaming the EU for not renegotiating with the PM.
    I agree, they can't force her hand.

    But I think when it comes to the crunch the anti-no-deal side of her party will be substantially bigger than the pro-no-deal side of her party, at least in private. I'm not sure what everyone will be saying in public.
    The Tory remainers are a bunch of weak, pathetic streaks of watery piss. They will do NOTHING to stop the Good Ship May as it trundles full steam over the Withdrawal Cascades into No Deal Cataract.
This discussion has been closed.