politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Crossing the Rubicon

System

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Crossing the Rubicon

I am looking forward to meeting @SteveBarclay in Brussels on Mon evening. I will listen to how the UK sees the way through. The EU will not reopen the Withdrawal Agreement. But I will reaffirm our openness to rework the Political Declaration in full respect of #EUCO guidelines.

Read the full story here

MarqueeMark

MPs, huh? All fart and no follow through....

Sunil_Prasannan

Second like Labour and Remain...

MattW

Nah. Third like Remain.
Or fourth like the other version of Remain.
Or fifth like...
Or 27th, like the version they were pushing 18 months ago that vanished.
Or..

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/turnercartoons/status/1093778200675708928

Torby_Fennel

I can completely understand the inertia of the "big name" moderate Labour backbench MPs - the former ministers and former shadow ministers. In their own minds they're still the next shadow cabinet in waiting and they, probably wrongly, believe they can get their party back. That and the fact that it's emotionally and psychologically very difficult to choose to leave any political party - a fact that people who are not members of political parties often fail to comprehend and it's why major splits in political parties are pretty rare.

dots

Torby_Fennel said:

I can completely understand the inertia of the "big name" moderate Labour backbench MPs - the former ministers and former shadow ministers. In their own minds they're still the next shadow cabinet in waiting and they, probably wrongly, believe they can get their party back. That and the fact that it's emotionally and psychologically very difficult to choose to leave any political party - a fact that people who are not members of political parties often fail to comprehend and it's why major splits in political parties are pretty rare.

They doubt they can break through on first past the post against established parties.

OldKingCole

dots said:

Torby_Fennel said:

I can completely understand the inertia of the "big name" moderate Labour backbench MPs - the former ministers and former shadow ministers. In their own minds they're still the next shadow cabinet in waiting and they, probably wrongly, believe they can get their party back. That and the fact that it's emotionally and psychologically very difficult to choose to leave any political party - a fact that people who are not members of political parties often fail to comprehend and it's why major splits in political parties are pretty rare.

They doubt they can break through on first past the post against established parties.

There are few, if any cases, from the last century of anyone successfully doing so. 28 Labour MP's defected to the SDP n the early 80's; how many held their seats?
How many National Liberal MP's were there after 1935 who were not, in effect, Conservatives.

logical_song

dots said:

Torby_Fennel said:

I can completely understand the inertia of the "big name" moderate Labour backbench MPs - the former ministers and former shadow ministers. In their own minds they're still the next shadow cabinet in waiting and they, probably wrongly, believe they can get their party back. That and the fact that it's emotionally and psychologically very difficult to choose to leave any political party - a fact that people who are not members of political parties often fail to comprehend and it's why major splits in political parties are pretty rare.

They doubt they can break through on first past the post against established parties.

So, if we crash out we can blame FPTP?

OldKingCole

logical_song said:

dots said:

Torby_Fennel said:

I can completely understand the inertia of the "big name" moderate Labour backbench MPs - the former ministers and former shadow ministers. In their own minds they're still the next shadow cabinet in waiting and they, probably wrongly, believe they can get their party back. That and the fact that it's emotionally and psychologically very difficult to choose to leave any political party - a fact that people who are not members of political parties often fail to comprehend and it's why major splits in political parties are pretty rare.

They doubt they can break through on first past the post against established parties.

So, if we crash out we can blame FPTP?

It has been very difficult for anyone without a strong 'on the ground' organisation to break through. As has been pointed out upthread, it's quite difficult for people to leave their party; they might drift away, but that's different.
Whether or not a small group with a dedicated internet Social Network group could do better we wait to see.

ydoethur

OldKingCole said:

dots said:

Torby_Fennel said:

I can completely understand the inertia of the "big name" moderate Labour backbench MPs - the former ministers and former shadow ministers. In their own minds they're still the next shadow cabinet in waiting and they, probably wrongly, believe they can get their party back. That and the fact that it's emotionally and psychologically very difficult to choose to leave any political party - a fact that people who are not members of political parties often fail to comprehend and it's why major splits in political parties are pretty rare.

They doubt they can break through on first past the post against established parties.

There are few, if any cases, from the last century of anyone successfully doing so. 28 Labour MP's defected to the SDP n the early 80's; how many held their seats?
How many National Liberal MP's were there after 1935 who were not, in effect, Conservatives.

Only one beyond 1987. The answer to your second question is one as well - Clement Davies.

OldKingCole

ydoethur said:

OldKingCole said:

dots said:

Torby_Fennel said:

I can completely understand the inertia of the "big name" moderate Labour backbench MPs - the former ministers and former shadow ministers. In their own minds they're still the next shadow cabinet in waiting and they, probably wrongly, believe they can get their party back. That and the fact that it's emotionally and psychologically very difficult to choose to leave any political party - a fact that people who are not members of political parties often fail to comprehend and it's why major splits in political parties are pretty rare.

They doubt they can break through on first past the post against established parties.

There are few, if any cases, from the last century of anyone successfully doing so. 28 Labour MP's defected to the SDP n the early 80's; how many held their seats?
How many National Liberal MP's were there after 1935 who were not, in effect, Conservatives.

Only one beyond 1987. The answer to your second question is one as well - Clement Davies.

My point exactly; the prospects for continuing as an MP are not good. Interesting about Davies; I seem to recall that he was offered a post in Churchill's 1951 Government but turned it down.

ydoethur

OldKingCole said:

ydoethur said:

OldKingCole said:

dots said:

Torby_Fennel said:

I can completely understand the inertia of the "big name" moderate Labour backbench MPs - the former ministers and former shadow ministers. In their own minds they're still the next shadow cabinet in waiting and they, probably wrongly, believe they can get their party back. That and the fact that it's emotionally and psychologically very difficult to choose to leave any political party - a fact that people who are not members of political parties often fail to comprehend and it's why major splits in political parties are pretty rare.

They doubt they can break through on first past the post against established parties.

There are few, if any cases, from the last century of anyone successfully doing so. 28 Labour MP's defected to the SDP n the early 80's; how many held their seats?
How many National Liberal MP's were there after 1935 who were not, in effect, Conservatives.

Only one beyond 1987. The answer to your second question is one as well - Clement Davies.

My point exactly; the prospects for continuing as an MP are not good. Interesting about Davies; I seem to recall that he was offered a post in Churchill's 1951 Government but turned it down.

You recall correctly - Minister for Education.

Edit - it is worth pointing out as well that in the case of Davies (Montgomeryshire) and Maclennan (Caithness) the MPs concerned held very remote seats with small electorates where it is common to find strong personal followings. Which again tends to underline your point. Has any defector ever held a seat in say London for any length of time without a party organisation behind them?

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

On the cartoon: anyone who considers the EU to be Heaven is a cultist.

On topic: I agree. There's been a surplus of talk, and a shortage of trousers, to mangle a phrase.

asjohnstone

I'm feeling people have left it too late; the moment for a second vote was maybe there in October / November, but it seems to have passed when Labour failed to get onboard.

Deal or no deal, coin flip really at this stage, but revoke & remain seems dead

IanB2

I can't help thinking this is another feature of how we have lost our traditional politics, similar to ministers and prime ministers no longer feeling any obligation to resign, however badly they have fucked up or been humiliated. Politicians simply don't feel driven by principle any more.

We don't even have defections between the major parties any more, where if done right career is safeguarded. I can't remember the last one - was it that Labour guy who ended sitting as a Tory in Oxfordshire?

Sandpit

So less that seven weeks to go, and the key players are still talking about talking, each side completely ignorant of what the other have said and done.

In case Barnier didn’t notice, the WA got rejected by 230 votes in Parliament. It’s as dead as a dodo.

Time to top up on no deal I think.

Gardenwalker

asjohnstone said:

I'm feeling people have left it too late; the moment for a second vote was maybe there in October / November, but it seems to have passed when Labour failed to get onboard.

Deal or no deal, coin flip really at this stage, but revoke & remain seems dead

I probably agree, but there is a glimmer of light if - excluding don’t knows - over 60% of the country want a delay, and 55% (last YouGov) think Brexit was a mistake.

CD13

One problem the EU faces in the future, even if it manages to convert Leave into a pseudo-BINO is that it's still an uneasy merger of 27/28 countries. Until it finally reaches its Nirvana of making the disparate nations into one union, it's still going to be riven by nationalistic aims.

Why do you think we still have CAP? Because it was a French invention and it suits them. They saw a Euro-fanatic like Blair a mile off and played him like a fish. Ireland's very keen on the EU because they are net gainers. The Eastern Europeans like the open borders.

There are true Europeans guided by a sense of common purpose but the majority are out for what their country can gain. The Germans are probably the nearest to the European ideal, and that's probably why they remain the largest contributors. They want the project to succeed for idealistic reasons.

Not so most of the rest. They are happy to take advantage of other's commitment.

Mr Glenn made a sensible point yesterday (he does sometimes despite his EU enthusiasm). He worried that if we left with a soft Brexit, there'd be a continual clamour to make it harder. He's right. We'll still see countries using it for National advantage.

Until integration is truly complete and we all accept we're European, not British or Irish or French, the EU enthusiasts will be taken advantage of. And they'll deserve to be.

Gardenwalker

Interesting, and a good example of when UK actually thought how about how to create wealth, instead of destroy it.

https://twitter.com/adam_tooze/status/1094506756275765248?s=21

Dura_Ace

Gardenwalker said:

asjohnstone said:

I'm feeling people have left it too late; the moment for a second vote was maybe there in October / November, but it seems to have passed when Labour failed to get onboard.

Deal or no deal, coin flip really at this stage, but revoke & remain seems dead

I probably agree, but there is a glimmer of light if - excluding don’t knows - over 60% of the country want a delay, and 55% (last YouGov) think Brexit was a mistake.

Delay would be a blow for Brexit that's for sure. One of the only things the fucking mess has got going for it is its inevitability. Once 29/03 comes and goes with no red, white and blue sovereignty bukkake some of the certainty will be gone.

ydoethur

IanB2 said:

I can't help thinking this is another feature of how we have lost our traditional politics, similar to ministers and prime ministers no longer feeling any obligation to resign, however badly they have fucked up or been humiliated. Politicians simply don't feel driven by principle any more.

We don't even have defections between the major parties any more, where if done right career is safeguarded. I can't remember the last one - was it that Labour guy who ended sitting as a Tory in Oxfordshire?

Quentin Davies in 2007 is the last one I remember between Labour and the Tories. There was of course the defection of Carswell and Reckless (TPD).

JosiasJessop

IanB2 said:

I can't help thinking this is another feature of how we have lost our traditional politics, similar to ministers and prime ministers no longer feeling any obligation to resign, however badly they have fucked up or been humiliated. Politicians simply don't feel driven by principle any more.

We don't even have defections between the major parties any more, where if done right career is safeguarded. I can't remember the last one - was it that Labour guy who ended sitting as a Tory in Oxfordshire?

I'm unsure that there's a particular pattern on the resignations front: Ed Miliband resigned after losing GE 2015, Cameron went after losing the referendum in 2016, and Farron after GE2017 when he realised his vile religion-inspired views were not in sync with a civilised society.

So that's three leaders of major parties resigning in the last four years.

I think Corbyn won't resign because he cares only about turning Labour into a hateful, inward-looking and sick party; and May won't because the Brexit job is incomplete, and there's no-one else who could do any better given the situation.

ydoethur

JosiasJessop said:

IanB2 said:

I can't help thinking this is another feature of how we have lost our traditional politics, similar to ministers and prime ministers no longer feeling any obligation to resign, however badly they have fucked up or been humiliated. Politicians simply don't feel driven by principle any more.

We don't even have defections between the major parties any more, where if done right career is safeguarded. I can't remember the last one - was it that Labour guy who ended sitting as a Tory in Oxfordshire?

I'm unsure that there's a particular pattern on the resignations front: Ed Miliband resigned after losing GE 2015, Cameron went after losing the referendum in 2016, and Farron after GE2017 when he realised his vile religion-inspired views were not in sync with a civilised society.

So that's three leaders of major parties resigning in the last four years.

I think Corbyn won't resign because he cares only about turning Labour into a hateful, inward-looking and sick party; and May won't because the Brexit job is incomplete, and there's no-one else who could do any better given the situation.

You forgot Salmond over the referendum.

IanB2

CD13 said:

One problem the EU faces in the future, even if it manages to convert Leave into a pseudo-BINO is that it's still an uneasy merger of 27/28 countries. Until it finally reaches its Nirvana of making the disparate nations into one union, it's still going to be riven by nationalistic aims.

Why do you think we still have CAP? Because it was a French invention and it suits them. They saw a Euro-fanatic like Blair a mile off and played him like a fish. Ireland's very keen on the EU because they are net gainers. The Eastern Europeans like the open borders.

There are true Europeans guided by a sense of common purpose but the majority are out for what their country can gain. The Germans are probably the nearest to the European ideal, and that's probably why they remain the largest contributors. They want the project to succeed for idealistic reasons.

Not so most of the rest. They are happy to take advantage of other's commitment.

Mr Glenn made a sensible point yesterday (he does sometimes despite his EU enthusiasm). He worried that if we left with a soft Brexit, there'd be a continual clamour to make it harder. He's right. We'll still see countries using it for National advantage.

Until integration is truly complete and we all accept we're European, not British or Irish or French, the EU enthusiasts will be taken advantage of. And they'll deserve to be.

But that last is a false choice. Even in an ultra-patriotic single country like the US, state loyalties are often fierce.

OnlyLivingBoy

Gardenwalker said:

I probably agree, but there is a glimmer of light if - excluding don’t knows - over 60% of the country want a delay, and 55% (last YouGov) think Brexit was a mistake.

Amid all the noise and confusion, the one thing I have been confident about has been that Brexit will prove incredibly unpopular and will guarantee political oblivion for anyone who has touched it. Not much comfort really, but perhaps enough in a world of shrunken expectations.

prh47bridge

IanB2 said:

I can't help thinking this is another feature of how we have lost our traditional politics, similar to ministers and prime ministers no longer feeling any obligation to resign, however badly they have fucked up or been humiliated. Politicians simply don't feel driven by principle any more.

We don't even have defections between the major parties any more, where if done right career is safeguarded. I can't remember the last one - was it that Labour guy who ended sitting as a Tory in Oxfordshire?

It was Quentin Davies in 2007. He went from the Conservatives to Labour and stood down at the next election. Previously Robert Jackson (Wantage) did the same in 2005. Shaun Woodward (Witney) defected from the Conservatives to Labour in 1999, becoming the MP for St Helens South at the next election.

MattW

ydoethur said:

JosiasJessop said:

IanB2 said:

I can't help thinking this is another feature of how we have lost our traditional politics, similar to ministers and prime ministers no longer feeling any obligation to resign, however badly they have fucked up or been humiliated. Politicians simply don't feel driven by principle any more.

We don't even have defections between the major parties any more, where if done right career is safeguarded. I can't remember the last one - was it that Labour guy who ended sitting as a Tory in Oxfordshire?

I'm unsure that there's a particular pattern on the resignations front: Ed Miliband resigned after losing GE 2015, Cameron went after losing the referendum in 2016, and Farron after GE2017 when he realised his vile religion-inspired views were not in sync with a civilised society.

So that's three leaders of major parties resigning in the last four years.

I think Corbyn won't resign because he cares only about turning Labour into a hateful, inward-looking and sick party; and May won't because the Brexit job is incomplete, and there's no-one else who could do any better given the situation.

You forgot Salmond over the referendum.

But this conversation is about "Principles".

CD13

One reason why many MPs approve of the EU is that it mimics the National Parliaments. It involves creating groupings to get your own way. Parliaments have parties, the local school yard has gangs but it amounts to the same thing. They feel at home there. We accept that the parties will often aim for party advantage rather than country advantage because it is effective politics.

It's similar in the EU. The French have always played the EU for National advantage and they'll probably be pleased to see us go. De Gaulle wasn't a freak in that respect. They might worry that losing a major player makes the whole concept weaker, but returning chastened and with weakened influence would be like having two Christmases.

I salute the idealists, but that won't stop them being figures of fun while the adults get on with things.

ydoethur

IanB2 said:

CD13 said:

One problem the EU faces in the future, even if it manages to convert Leave into a pseudo-BINO is that it's still an uneasy merger of 27/28 countries. Until it finally reaches its Nirvana of making the disparate nations into one union, it's still going to be riven by nationalistic aims.

Why do you think we still have CAP? Because it was a French invention and it suits them. They saw a Euro-fanatic like Blair a mile off and played him like a fish. Ireland's very keen on the EU because they are net gainers. The Eastern Europeans like the open borders.

There are true Europeans guided by a sense of common purpose but the majority are out for what their country can gain. The Germans are probably the nearest to the European ideal, and that's probably why they remain the largest contributors. They want the project to succeed for idealistic reasons.

Not so most of the rest. They are happy to take advantage of other's commitment.

Mr Glenn made a sensible point yesterday (he does sometimes despite his EU enthusiasm). He worried that if we left with a soft Brexit, there'd be a continual clamour to make it harder. He's right. We'll still see countries using it for National advantage.

Until integration is truly complete and we all accept we're European, not British or Irish or French, the EU enthusiasts will be taken advantage of. And they'll deserve to be.

But that last is a false choice. Even in an ultra-patriotic single country like the US, state loyalties are often fierce.

There was a time indeed when states were seen as the 'country' and Washington was seen as a meddling nuisance. Among other things, that led to a little number called the American Civil War and 630,000 deaths.

It is also why despite the fact Lee was on the losing side it feels a bit unfair to call him a traitor. He joined the Confedaracy very reluctantly because his 'country' (Virginia) did, and despite the offer of command of the US forces in the field. Ironically therefore he is now called a traitor because he refused to commit what he considered treason.

ydoethur

MattW said:

ydoethur said:

JosiasJessop said:

IanB2 said:

I can't help thinking this is another feature of how we have lost our traditional politics, similar to ministers and prime ministers no longer feeling any obligation to resign, however badly they have fucked up or been humiliated. Politicians simply don't feel driven by principle any more.

We don't even have defections between the major parties any more, where if done right career is safeguarded. I can't remember the last one - was it that Labour guy who ended sitting as a Tory in Oxfordshire?

I'm unsure that there's a particular pattern on the resignations front: Ed Miliband resigned after losing GE 2015, Cameron went after losing the referendum in 2016, and Farron after GE2017 when he realised his vile religion-inspired views were not in sync with a civilised society.

So that's three leaders of major parties resigning in the last four years.

I think Corbyn won't resign because he cares only about turning Labour into a hateful, inward-looking and sick party; and May won't because the Brexit job is incomplete, and there's no-one else who could do any better given the situation.

You forgot Salmond over the referendum.

But this conversation is about "Principles".

@JosiasJessop seems to be more interested in principals, judging by his comment.

ydoethur

prh47bridge said:

IanB2 said:

I can't help thinking this is another feature of how we have lost our traditional politics, similar to ministers and prime ministers no longer feeling any obligation to resign, however badly they have fucked up or been humiliated. Politicians simply don't feel driven by principle any more.

We don't even have defections between the major parties any more, where if done right career is safeguarded. I can't remember the last one - was it that Labour guy who ended sitting as a Tory in Oxfordshire?

It was Quentin Davies in 2007. He went from the Conservatives to Labour and stood down at the next election. Previously Robert Jackson (Wantage) did the same in 2005. Shaun Woodward (Witney) defected from the Conservatives to Labour in 1999, becoming the MP for St Helens South at the next election.

And later Secretary of State for Northern Ireland and one of the very small number of cabinet ministers Brown trusted. On one occasion when Mandelson was leaving the room after calming Brown down, he saw Woodward going in and said drily, 'Ah, the night shift.'

IanB2

prh47bridge said:

IanB2 said:

I can't help thinking this is another feature of how we have lost our traditional politics, similar to ministers and prime ministers no longer feeling any obligation to resign, however badly they have fucked up or been humiliated. Politicians simply don't feel driven by principle any more.

We don't even have defections between the major parties any more, where if done right career is safeguarded. I can't remember the last one - was it that Labour guy who ended sitting as a Tory in Oxfordshire?

It was Quentin Davies in 2007. He went from the Conservatives to Labour and stood down at the next election. Previously Robert Jackson (Wantage) did the same in 2005. Shaun Woodward (Witney) defected from the Conservatives to Labour in 1999, becoming the MP for St Helens South at the next election.

Thanks for remembering; I had the Oxfordshire one the wrong way around. Easy to forget how Cameron got his opening; that defection carries a heavy legacy.

MattW

ydoethur said:

OldKingCole said:

dots said:

Torby_Fennel said:

I can completely understand the inertia of the "big name" moderate Labour backbench MPs - the former ministers and former shadow ministers. In their own minds they're still the next shadow cabinet in waiting and they, probably wrongly, believe they can get their party back. That and the fact that it's emotionally and psychologically very difficult to choose to leave any political party - a fact that people who are not members of political parties often fail to comprehend and it's why major splits in political parties are pretty rare.

They doubt they can break through on first past the post against established parties.

There are few, if any cases, from the last century of anyone successfully doing so. 28 Labour MP's defected to the SDP n the early 80's; how many held their seats?
How many National Liberal MP's were there after 1935 who were not, in effect, Conservatives.

Only one beyond 1987. The answer to your second question is one as well - Clement Davies.

I make that two - David Owen and John Cartwright.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Social_Democratic_Party_(UK)_MPs

But your point stands.

There's also a delicious detail about Rosie Barnes:

"She was shown in soft focus in a Party political broadcast teaching her son the way to stroke a rabbit, an appearance which was heavily ridiculed."

Dura_Ace

JosiasJessop said:

I think Corbyn won't resign because he cares only about turning Labour into a hateful, inward-looking and sick party; and May won't because the Brexit job is incomplete, and there's no-one else who could do any better given the situation.

If May and Corbyn somehow stagger on the 2022 then JC will have been Labour leader for longer than both G. Browns, Callaghan, Foot and E. Milliband. It's astonishing really. He and May deserve each other.

ydoethur

Dura_Ace said:

JosiasJessop said:

I think Corbyn won't resign because he cares only about turning Labour into a hateful, inward-looking and sick party; and May won't because the Brexit job is incomplete, and there's no-one else who could do any better given the situation.

If May and Corbyn somehow stagger on the 2022 then JC will have been Labour leader for longer than both G. Browns, Callaghan, Foot and E. Milliband. It's astonishing really. He and May deserve each other.

George Brown was only leader for a very short time though. In fact, am I right in thinking he was the shortest serving leader of the Labour Party behind Beckett?

ydoethur

MattW said:

ydoethur said:

OldKingCole said:

dots said:

Torby_Fennel said:

I can completely understand the inertia of the "big name" moderate Labour backbench MPs - the former ministers and former shadow ministers. In their own minds they're still the next shadow cabinet in waiting and they, probably wrongly, believe they can get their party back. That and the fact that it's emotionally and psychologically very difficult to choose to leave any political party - a fact that people who are not members of political parties often fail to comprehend and it's why major splits in political parties are pretty rare.

They doubt they can break through on first past the post against established parties.

There are few, if any cases, from the last century of anyone successfully doing so. 28 Labour MP's defected to the SDP n the early 80's; how many held their seats?
How many National Liberal MP's were there after 1935 who were not, in effect, Conservatives.

Only one beyond 1987. The answer to your second question is one as well - Clement Davies.

I make that two - David Owen and John Cartwright.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Social_Democratic_Party_(UK)_MPs

But your point stands.

There's also a delicious detail about Rosie Barnes:

"She was shown in soft focus in a Party political broadcast teaching her son the way to stroke a rabbit, an appearance which was heavily ridiculed."

Well, I was actually thinking of Robert McLennan, so it would be three. I thought Owen had lost his seat in 1987 but I was confusing it with his resignation from the SDP.

kle4

Streeter said:

kle4 said:

Streeter said:

kle4 said:

Streeter said:

kle4 said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Where does Hinds stand on buses?

Thousands of bus routes at risk of being scrapped.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47182101

Can anyone tces at PMQs? Still confident the next election will be all about Brexit?

Rural bus routesar parking charges.

Nonsense. Car parking charges go to District Councils. Public transport support comes from County Councils. Do try to stay in touching distance of reality.

Found reality yet?

Latest available figures:

Annual local authority bus subsidy £3023m
Annual local authority parking income £819m
Total annual local authority spending £111370m

Car parking charges are not paying any significant amount towards local authority expenditure.

Car parking charges are used for the purpose I described.

Nonsense. No they are not. Hypothecation in local government finance does not exist, it’s all just funding, no matter how much bleating drivers think (wrongly) they are being hard done to.

You're arguing accounting now? Christ, I've not seen someone leap from different point to different point when they are wrong so lamely in a long time.

I don't think I'll take lessons from someone who opened with an insult proving they don't know that unitary authorities exist!

And let's not forget that's how this started. You claimed the two elements couldn't have anything to do with one another as one was district and one was county. You were hopelessly, unforgivably wrong about that, yet you chose to insult me about it.

hamiltonace

The mail online has been rabidly anti Corbyn and anti a hard brexit. Both of these opinions are now shared by the general population. If ever there was a time for mps to defect now is it.

ydoethur

kle4 said:

Streeter said:

kle4 said:

Streeter said:

kle4 said:

Streeter said:

kle4 said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Where does Hinds stand on buses?

Thousands of bus routes at risk of being scrapped.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47182101

Can anyone tces at PMQs? Still confident the next election will be all about Brexit?

Rural bus routesar parking charges.

Nonsense. Car parking charges go to District Councils. Public transport support comes from County Councils. Do try to stay in touching distance of reality.

Found reality yet?

Latest available figures:

Annual local authority bus subsidy £3023m
Annual local authority parking income £819m
Total annual local authority spending £111370m

Car parking charges are not paying any significant amount towards local authority expenditure.

Car parking charges are used for the purpose I described.

Nonsense. No they are not. Hypothecation in local government finance does not exist, it’s all just funding, no matter how much bleating drivers think (wrongly) they are being hard done to.

You're arguing accounting now? Christ, I've not seen someone leap from different point to different point when they are wrong so lamely in a long time.

I don't think I'll take lessons from someone who opened with an insult proving they don't know that unitary authorities exist!

And let's not forget that's how this started. You claimed the two elements couldn't have anything to do with one another as one was district and one was county. You were hopelessly, unforgivably wrong about that, yet you chose to insult me about it.

As slightly surreal discussions go, this one has at least been entertaining.

However, can I ask a more serious, practical question? I know you are in favour of everyone going unitary. But in those circumstances, would you be in favour of Swindon merging back into Wiltshire? Or do you think the current system works?

I would be genuinely interested in knowing the answer as through all my time in England I have only lived in shire counties.

malcolmg

Torby_Fennel said:

I can completely understand the inertia of the "big name" moderate Labour backbench MPs - the former ministers and former shadow ministers. In their own minds they're still the next shadow cabinet in waiting and they, probably wrongly, believe they can get their party back. That and the fact that it's emotionally and psychologically very difficult to choose to leave any political party - a fact that people who are not members of political parties often fail to comprehend and it's why major splits in political parties are pretty rare.

You mean they get showered with so much cash that the useless donkeys are not going to give it up for morals or principles, they will hang on like grim death. Greedy grasping useless twunts.

ydoethur

malcolmg said:

Torby_Fennel said:

I can completely understand the inertia of the "big name" moderate Labour backbench MPs - the former ministers and former shadow ministers. In their own minds they're still the next shadow cabinet in waiting and they, probably wrongly, believe they can get their party back. That and the fact that it's emotionally and psychologically very difficult to choose to leave any political party - a fact that people who are not members of political parties often fail to comprehend and it's why major splits in political parties are pretty rare.

You mean they get showered with so much cash that the useless donkeys are not going to give it up for morals or principles, they will hang on like grim death. Greedy grasping useless twunts.

Morning Malcolm, I trust it is less windy in Ayrshire than previously today?

kle4

Streeter said:

kle4 said:

Streeter said:

kle4 said:

Streeter said:

kle4 said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Where does Hinds stand on buses?

Thousands of bus routes at risk of being scrapped.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47182101

Can anyone tces at PMQs? Still confident the next election will be all about Brexit?

Rural bus routesar parking charges.

Nonsense. Car parking charges go to District Councils. Public transport support comes from County Councils. Do try to stay in touching distance of reality.

Found reality yet?

Latest ure.

Car parking charges are used for the purpose I described.

Nonsense. No they are not. Hypothecation in local government finance does not exist, it’s all just funding, no matter how much bleating drivers think (wrongly) they are being hard done to.

You're arguing accounting now? Christ, I've not seen someone leap from different point to different point when they are wrong so lamely in a long time.

I don't think I'll take lessons from someone who opened with an insult proving they don't know that unitary authorities exist!

And let's not forget that's how this started. You claimed the two elements couldn't have anything to do with one another as one was district and one was county. You were hopelessly, unforgivably wrong about that, yet you chose to insult me about it.

Funding is funding, but there's nothing incorrect about generalities - the surplus income is, as I demonstrated with my own council, justified on the basis of funding bus routes.

But since you aren't aware of an extremely common form of local authority what's the point in continuing this? You probably have a house to build on quicksand or something. Word of advice, it doesn't matter how well you construct it if it's built on something fundamentally flawed.

SquareRoot

ydoethur said:

Dura_Ace said:

JosiasJessop said:

I think Corbyn won't resign because he cares only about turning Labour into a hateful, inward-looking and sick party; and May won't because the Brexit job is incomplete, and there's no-one else who could do any better given the situation.

If May and Corbyn somehow stagger on the 2022 then JC will have been Labour leader for longer than both G. Browns, Callaghan, Foot and E. Milliband. It's astonishing really. He and May deserve each other.

George Brown was only leader for a very short time though. In fact, am I right in thinking he was the shortest serving leader of the Labour Party behind Beckett?

He was also the one who did the most damage to the economy.

Luckyguy1983

Conservative hardcore remainers can't defect, for the same reason that many would like it if they did - they don't have significant enough numbers even to be a covincing rump. And they don't have enough support to hold on to their seats. It would be a total non event, and they know that they seem a lot bigger and more convincing within the party than they would without it. So sadly, they will not do anything.

rural_voter

IanB2 said:

prh47bridge said:

IanB2 said:

I can't help thinking this is another feature of how we have lost our traditional politics, similar to ministers and prime ministers no longer feeling any obligation to resign, however badly they have fucked up or been humiliated. Politicians simply don't feel driven by principle any more.

We don't even have defections between the major parties any more, where if done right career is safeguarded. I can't remember the last one - was it that Labour guy who ended sitting as a Tory in Oxfordshire?

It was Quentin Davies in 2007. He went from the Conservatives to Labour and stood down at the next election. Previously Robert Jackson (Wantage) did the same in 2005. Shaun Woodward (Witney) defected from the Conservatives to Labour in 1999, becoming the MP for St Helens South at the next election.

Thanks for remembering; I had the Oxfordshire one the wrong way around. Easy to forget how Cameron got his opening; that defection carries a heavy legacy.

Don't forget Peter Temple-Morris, a One Nation Tory MP turned New Labour MP. He stood down because Labour could never in this universe have held Leominster but he was deservedly made a peer: http://www.theirishworld.com/tributes-paid-most-honourable-politician-peter-temple-morris/

Emma Nicholson MP from Devon was a One Nation Tory MP turned LibDem MP. She was made a peer. Again, her new party clearly couldn't hold the seat.

I think that crossing the floor is getting less frequent and politics is getting even more tribal. Brexit is even more bogged down because MPs now fear being deselected for cross-party cooperation. PR looks more distant than ever.

kle4

ydoethur said:

kle4 said:

Streeter said:

kle4 said:

Streeter said:

kle4 said:

Streeter said:

kle4 said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Where does Hinds stand on buses?

Thousands of bus routes at risk of being scrapped.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47182101

Can anyone tces at PMQs? Still confident the next election will be all about Brexit?

Rural bus routesar parking charges.

Nonsense. Car parking charges go to District Councils. Public transport support comes from County Councils. Do try to stay in touching distance of reality.

Found reality yet?

Latest available figures:

Annual local authority bus subsidy £3023m
Annual local authority parking income £819m
Total annual local authority spending £111370m

Car parking charges are not paying any significant amount towards local authority expenditure.

Car parking charges are used for the purpose I described.

Nonsense. No they are not. Hypothecation in local government finance does not exist, it’s all just funding, no matter how much bleating drivers think (wrongly) they are being hard done to.

You're arguing accounting now? Christ, I've not seen someone leap from different point to different point when they are wrong so lamely in a long time.

I don't think I'll take lessons from someone who opened with an insult proving they don't know that unitary authorities exist!

And let's not forget that's how this started. You claimed the two elements couldn't have anything to do with one .

As slightly surreal discussions go, this one has at least been entertaining.

However, can I ask a more serious, practical question? I know you are in favour of everyone going unitary. But in those circumstances, would you be in favour of Swindon merging back into Wiltshire? Or do you think the current system works?

I would be genuinely interested in knowing the answer as through all my time in England I have only lived in shire counties.

I have no personal objections to such, I think if counties still exist it make a kind of sense to unify them. I believe Wiltshire to be working better than Swindon, and it would drastically alter the politics given Swindon is a battleground, but there's plenty of areas where they have to work together still.

I imagine it would be very unpopular though. While some still pine for the districts I don't hear many who care that Swindon is no longer administered in the same area.

I do think if one giant unitary is not viable you do need to divide areas into as few as possible.

williamglenn

https://twitter.com/claire_phipps/status/1094519224964399104?s=21

malcolmg

ydoethur said:

malcolmg said:

Torby_Fennel said:

I can completely understand the inertia of the "big name" moderate Labour backbench MPs - the former ministers and former shadow ministers. In their own minds they're still the next shadow cabinet in waiting and they, probably wrongly, believe they can get their party back. That and the fact that it's emotionally and psychologically very difficult to choose to leave any political party - a fact that people who are not members of political parties often fail to comprehend and it's why major splits in political parties are pretty rare.

You mean they get showered with so much cash that the useless donkeys are not going to give it up for morals or principles, they will hang on like grim death. Greedy grasping useless twunts.

Morning Malcolm, I trust it is less windy in Ayrshire than previously today?

Morning Ydoethur, Yes calm this morning with blue sky and sunshine at present. Hope all is well with you.

kle4

Torby_Fennel said:

I can completely understand the inertia of the "big name" moderate Labour backbench MPs - the former ministers and former shadow ministers. In their own minds they're still the next shadow cabinet in waiting and they, probably wrongly, believe they can get their party back. That and the fact that it's emotionally and psychologically very difficult to choose to leave any political party - a fact that people who are not members of political parties often fail to comprehend and it's why major splits in political parties are pretty rare.

I agree it's very hard, but there comes a time when they've exhausted how much that understanding gets them any sympathy.

ydoethur

kle4 said:

ydoethur said:

kle4 said:

Streeter said:

kle4 said:

Streeter said:

kle4 said:

Streeter said:

kle4 said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Where does Hinds stand on buses?

Thousands of bus routes at risk of being scrapped.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47182101

Can anyone tces at PMQs? Still confident the next election will be all about Brexit?

Rural bus routesar parking charges.

Nonsense. Car parking charges go to District Councils. Public transport support comes from County Councils. Do try to stay in touching distance of reality.

Found reality yet?

Latest available figures:

Annual local authority bus subsidy £3023m
Annual local authority parking income £819m
Total annual local authority spending £111370m

Car parking charges are not paying any significant amount towards local authority expenditure.

Car parking charges are used for the purpose I described.

Nonsense. No they are not. Hypothecation in local government finance does not exist, it’s all just funding, no matter how much bleating drivers think (wrongly) they are being hard done to.

You're arguing accounting now? Christ, I've not seen someone leap from different point to different point when they are wrong so lamely in a long time.

I don't think I'll take lessons from someone who opened with an insult proving they don't know that unitary authorities exist!

And let's not forget that's how this started. You claimed the two elements couldn't have anything to do with one .

As slightly surreal discussions go, this one has at least been entertaining.

However, can I ask a more serious, practical question? I know you are in favour of everyone going unitary. But in those circumstances, would you be in favour of Swindon merging back into Wiltshire? Or do you think the current system works?

I would be genuinely interested in knowing the answer as through all my time in England I have only lived in shire counties.

I have no personal objections to such, I think if counties still exist it make a kind of sense to unify them. I believe Wiltshire to be working better than Swindon, and it would drastically alter the politics given Swindon is a battleground, but there's plenty of areas where they have to work together still.

I imagine it would be very unpopular though. While some still pine for the districts I don't hear many who care that Swindon is no longer administered in the same area.

I do think if one giant unitary is not viable you do need to divide areas into as few as possible.

Thanks.

ydoethur

malcolmg said:

ydoethur said:

malcolmg said:

Torby_Fennel said:

I can completely understand the inertia of the "big name" moderate Labour backbench MPs - the former ministers and former shadow ministers. In their own minds they're still the next shadow cabinet in waiting and they, probably wrongly, believe they can get their party back. That and the fact that it's emotionally and psychologically very difficult to choose to leave any political party - a fact that people who are not members of political parties often fail to comprehend and it's why major splits in political parties are pretty rare.

You mean they get showered with so much cash that the useless donkeys are not going to give it up for morals or principles, they will hang on like grim death. Greedy grasping useless twunts.

Morning Malcolm, I trust it is less windy in Ayrshire than previously today?

Morning Ydoethur, Yes calm this morning with blue sky and sunshine at present. Hope all is well with you.

It is currently pissing down harder than an alcoholic after Happy Hour at the Bass brewery in Burton. Apart from that I think all is well.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1094517357807132672

kle4

8

Sandpit said:

So less that seven weeks to go, and the key players are still talking about talking, each side completely ignorant of what the other have said and done.

It's almost crazy. Puts me very much in mind of the representatives of The Good Place in season 3 of, well, The Good Place. Or those titanic jokes.

MarqueeMark

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/claire_phipps/status/1094519224964399104?s=21

Except, that will resonate with England's medieval towns - and most of the places he needs to win power are England's medieval towns.....

Roger

CD13 said:

One problem the EU faces in the future, even if it manages to convert Leave into a pseudo-BINO is that it's still an uneasy merger of 27/28 countries. Until it finally reaches its Nirvana of making the disparate nations into one union, it's still going to be riven by nationalistic aims.

Why do you think we still have CAP? Because it was a French invention and it suits them. They saw a Euro-fanatic like Blair a mile off and played him like a fish. Ireland's very keen on the EU because they are net gainers. The Eastern Europeans like the open borders.

There are true Europeans guided by a sense of common purpose but the majority are out for what their country can gain. The Germans are probably the nearest to the European ideal, and that's probably why they remain the largest contributors. They want the project to succeed for idealistic reasons.

Not so most of the rest. They are happy to take advantage of other's commitment.

Mr Glenn made a sensible point yesterday (he does sometimes despite his EU enthusiasm). He worried that if we left with a soft Brexit, there'd be a continual clamour to make it harder. He's right. We'll still see countries using it for National advantage.

Until integration is truly complete and we all accept we're European, not British or Irish or French, the EU enthusiasts will be taken advantage of. And they'll deserve to be.

Im not sure I understand the point you are making. For the citizen travelling through a Europe without borders and with a common currency is a delight. Breakfasting in france and driving to a cafe in Italy for lunch in the knowledge that the standards demanded by the EU mean you wont be poisoned in either country is a a very good thing.

The currency will take you thousands of miles in either direction and no passport necessary. It makes life easier safer and potentially more pleasurable for all of us and I haven't even started on the advantages if you to work in any of those countries...

....What is it that scares you?

DavidL

Gardenwalker said:

Interesting, and a good example of when UK actually thought how about how to create wealth, instead of destroy it.

https://twitter.com/adam_tooze/status/1094506756275765248?s=21

All hail George Osborne. What a result.

MattW

dots said:

Torby_Fennel said:

I can completely understand the inertia of the "big name" moderate Labour backbench MPs - the former ministers and former shadow ministers. In their own minds they're still the next shadow cabinet in waiting and they, probably wrongly, believe they can get their party back. That and the fact that it's emotionally and psychologically very difficult to choose to leave any political party - a fact that people who are not members of political parties often fail to comprehend and it's why major splits in political parties are pretty rare.

They doubt they can break through on first past the post against established parties.

This interests me for Ashfield Constituency.

There is no Liberal Democrat organisation - they are currently combined with Mansfield Constituency.

The Council is now lead by the LibDem candidate from 2010, who was within 200 votes, and resigned as candidate in 2015 after press rumours (which the police / CPS failed to substantiate despite 2+ years to investigate), and then pursued a Local Councillor role as Independent. The Ashfield Independents now lead the Council. The Lib Dem GE vote has evaporated, but I do not see the Indies having any hope at a GE.

How do the Lib Dems rebuild in these circs, given that most of their support is presumably committed to the Independents?

Wait 10 years then ask nicely for the Indies to come back home?

kle4

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1094517357807132672

I actually like Dan Hodges, but that is so not the question. A split means the Tories win. A handful have left for various reasons a handful of others might.

That any new group would be seen as labour means barely a handful of anyone else would join it, because of ingrained tribalism. How would they be tribally loyal to some new group?

kle4

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/claire_phipps/status/1094519224964399104?s=21

That utter bastard.

Why have the Mail splashed this story? Most of the claims are rehashed so has this investigative chap turned up anything everyone didn't already know if could guess?

Morris_Dancer

Don't think Labour will split. To be fair, I never thought Labour MPs would actually challenge Corbyn either, but they've had plenty of opportunity to form a Not-Demented Leftwing Party and have yet to do so.

Roger

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1094517357807132672

I know seeing a naked Diane Abbott isn't for everyone but suggesting all decent Labour MPs should leave the party is surely an overreaction

kle4

How common are defections to the SNP? Given their emergence as a dominant force in recent times I'd have thought many members used to be other parties, and so surely some elected members at lower levels at least made a switch?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. kle4, SNP are a bit of a different kettle of fish as their raison d'etre is leaving the UK. So it's a bit more than just swapping the rosette for a different colour if someone jumps ship to HMS Indyref II.

Scott_P

kle4 said:

I actually like Dan Hodges, but that is so not the question. A split means the Tories win. A handful have left for various reasons a handful of others might.

Except the Tories might also split.

https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1094506841877475328

https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1094507068772573184

https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1094507184828878848

There is a good argument to be made for a realignment of politics along Brexit lines. There is an argument that not being aligned in those terms has led to the current impasse...

TheJezziah

kle4 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1094517357807132672

I actually like Dan Hodges,

I have lost all respect for you.

ydoethur

kle4 said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/claire_phipps/status/1094519224964399104?s=21

That utter bastard.

Why have the Mail splashed this story? Most of the claims are rehashed so has this investigative chap turned up anything everyone didn't already know if could guess?

Having read it, no. I knew all of this already and I can't understand how anyone thinks it revelatory. I would add that as most of it is personal rather than political it isn't actually especially relevant either. That might however be the MoS making an editorial decision.

A much more useful exercise would have been a deep investigation into his conduct in Haringey, where there would appear prima facie to be incitement to break the law and possible fraud involved, but the article barely touches on it.

And a still more useful exercise would be an investigation into his links with South American, East German and Czech mass murderers. Again, only mentioned in passing.

I can't help but feel this kind of thing is counterproductive. Lurid, maybe, but stories about him being a principled vegetarian until Castro offered him steak is not getting to the meat (sorry) of why he is totally unfit to hold public office.

Scott_P

kle4 said:

How common are defections to the SNP? Given their emergence as a dominant force in recent times I'd have thought many members used to be other parties, and so surely some elected members at lower levels at least made a switch?

Tasmina is the best known I think

Chris

kle4 said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/claire_phipps/status/1094519224964399104?s=21

That utter bastard.

Why have the Mail splashed this story? Most of the claims are rehashed so has this investigative chap turned up anything everyone didn't already know if could guess?

I must admit I don't associate the Daily Mail with lavish coverage of Central European art galleries and medieval architecture. But to be fair I only look at it when I'm waiting for a haircut and there's no alternative reading material, so I may have missed it.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1094524574354599936

Dura_Ace

MarqueeMark said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/claire_phipps/status/1094519224964399104?s=21

Except, that will resonate with England's medieval towns - and most of the places he needs to win power are England's medieval towns.....

Do you honestly believe that somebody who was otherwise include to vote for JC will change their mind because he doesn't give a fuck about York Minster?

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1094524989775204352

MarqueeMark

Dura_Ace said:

MarqueeMark said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/claire_phipps/status/1094519224964399104?s=21

Except, that will resonate with England's medieval towns - and most of the places he needs to win power are England's medieval towns.....

Do you honestly believe that somebody who was otherwise include to vote for JC will change their mind because he doesn't give a fuck about York Minster?

Yes.

Have you talked to voters? Their motives are quite often weird....

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Ace, York Minster's a magnificent building. Visitors to York should definitely pay it a look.

JosiasJessop

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/claire_phipps/status/1094519224964399104?s=21

And yet he quite likes photographing manhole covers (and not the sort TSE will snigger about).

I have no problems with someone being an operculist (says a pontist)

Gardenwalker

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/claire_phipps/status/1094519224964399104?s=21

Both sums up the triviality of the Mail piece, but also provides more evidence that a Corbyn is a pig-ignorant barbarian.

kle4

Scott_P said:

kle4 said:

I actually like Dan Hodges, but that is so not the question. A split means the Tories win. A handful have left for various reasons a handful of others might.

Except the Tories might also split.

https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1094506841877475328

https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1094507068772573184

https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1094507184828878848

There is a good argument to be made for a realignment of politics along Brexit lines. There is an argument that not being aligned in those terms has led to the current impasse...

I think it very true both should split and that there should be a realignment. But if one splits the other probably won't.

I actually think the Tories are more vulnerable to the possibility. There's a more fundamental drive to it, decades of build up until it cannot be ignored any more. Still more likely they won't but their issues seem deeper than Labour's.

ydoethur

JosiasJessop said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/claire_phipps/status/1094519224964399104?s=21

And yet he quite likes photographing manhole covers (and not the sort TSE will snigger about).

I have no problems with someone being an operculist (says a pontist)

Do we actually know that he doesn't photograph the TSE sort of manholes as well? I mean, he displayed Diane Abbott in flagrante delicto to his friends.

Roger

TheJezziah said:

kle4 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1094517357807132672

I actually like Dan Hodges,

I have lost all respect for you.

Dan 'Thenardier' Hodges.

MarqueeMark

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1094524989775204352

Neil Blair. It really IS a Blairite coup.

Question is - does he have J K Rowling's millions behind him when he speaks?

ydoethur

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Ace, York Minster's a magnificent building. Visitors to York should definitely pay it a look.

But should they pay the however many millions it is to go into it so they can ogle the statue of my clearly thoroughly irreligious and egotistical collateral ancestor Sir George Savile?

kle4

TheJezziah said:

kle4 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1094517357807132672

I actually like Dan Hodges,

I have lost all respect for you.

Sorry. I think he's one note, not always convincing, but he can have an amusing turn of phrase and I enjoy his writing.

Chris

"His latest gambit this week was to write to the Prime Minister setting out the terms on which he could support a deal to leave the EU, terms which as he well knew were impossible for her to accept."

They're only impossible for her to accept for the same reason every other sensible way out of the mess is impossible for her to accept - the fact that the Tory party is split down the middle, with a substantial faction apparently embracing the craziness of leaving without a deal.

If we hadn't been following Theresa May down a rabbit hole for the last two years, I think Corbyn's proposals would have looked like a very sensible compromise in a situation where half the population wanted to leave and half wanted to stay.

Evidently the rest of the EU thinks his proposals are reasonable too. Are even sensible commentators now being drawn into the paranoid mindset where they think the rest of the world is out to get us?

IanB2

MattW said:

dots said:

Torby_Fennel said:

I can completely understand the inertia of the "big name" moderate Labour backbench MPs - the former ministers and former shadow ministers. In their own minds they're still the next shadow cabinet in waiting and they, probably wrongly, believe they can get their party back. That and the fact that it's emotionally and psychologically very difficult to choose to leave any political party - a fact that people who are not members of political parties often fail to comprehend and it's why major splits in political parties are pretty rare.

They doubt they can break through on first past the post against established parties.

This interests me for Ashfield Constituency.

There is no Liberal Democrat organisation - they are currently combined with Mansfield Constituency.

The Council is now lead by the LibDem candidate from 2010, who was within 200 votes, and resigned as candidate in 2015 after press rumours (which the police / CPS failed to substantiate despite 2+ years to investigate), and then pursued a Local Councillor role as Independent. The Ashfield Independents now lead the Council. The Lib Dem GE vote has evaporated, but I do not see the Indies having any hope at a GE.

How do the Lib Dems rebuild in these circs, given that most of their support is presumably committed to the Independents?

Wait 10 years then ask nicely for the Indies to come back home?

The LibDems posed a serious challenge in that seat, and there persist rumours that there were dirty tricks in play behind that whole sorry episode. I don't think you can extrapolate from that to the national situation.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Doethur, it's a while since I visited, but I do recall any money involved (whether fee or donation) was significantly less than a million pounds.

Big_G_NorthWales

The Mail on Sunday on Corbyn today gives an insight to how unsuitable he is for high office, and may titillate some, but I only skimmed read it and got bored to be honest.

Indeed it is rather over the top and I would think readers may be more interested in the Meghan Markle's 5 page letter to her Father and her writing style

Just listened to Blair on Sophy on Sunday and he too bores you to sleep.

I understand TM is going to put the deal back (amended or otherwise) to the HOC by the end of the month and effectively follow the will of the House and act accordingly.

ydoethur

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Doethur, it's a while since I visited, but I do recall any money involved (whether fee or donation) was significantly less than a million pounds.

Maybe to a poor student it just felt like it!

SouthamObserver

Chris said:

"His latest gambit this week was to write to the Prime Minister setting out the terms on which he could support a deal to leave the EU, terms which as he well knew were impossible for her to accept."

They're only impossible for her to accept for the same reason every other sensible way out of the mess is impossible for her to accept - the fact that the Tory party is split down the middle, with a substantial faction apparently embracing the craziness of leaving without a deal.

If we hadn't been following Theresa May down a rabbit hole for the last two years, I think Corbyn's proposals would have looked like a very sensible compromise in a situation where half the population wanted to leave and half wanted to stay.

Evidently the rest of the EU thinks his proposals are reasonable too. Are even sensible commentators now being drawn into the paranoid mindset where they think the rest of the world is out to get us?

Spot on. Theresa May’s clear priority is not securing a Brexit that the Commons and the country can live with, but one that keeps the Conservative party together and her in office. It is likely to work short-term, it will be utterly ruinous for the Tories as soon as the Labour party gets a new leader.

kle4

SouthamObserver said:

Chris said:

"His latest gambit this week was to write to the Prime Minister setting out the terms on which he could support a deal to leave the EU, terms which as he well knew were impossible for her to accept."

They're only impossible for her to accept for the same reason every other sensible way out of the mess is impossible for her to accept - the fact that the Tory party is split down the middle, with a substantial faction apparently embracing the craziness of leaving without a deal.

If we hadn't been following Theresa May down a rabbit hole for the last two years, I think Corbyn's proposals would have looked like a very sensible compromise in a situation where half the population wanted to leave and half wanted to stay.

Evidently the rest of the EU thinks his proposals are reasonable too. Are even sensible commentators now being drawn into the paranoid mindset where they think the rest of the world is out to get us?

Spot on. Theresa May’s clear priority is not securing a Brexit that the Commons and the country can live with, but one that keeps the Conservative party together and her in office. It is likely to work short-term, it will be utterly ruinous for the Tories as soon as the Labour party gets a new leader.

Yep. The mask was discarded for good when she herself went chasing unicorns.

Chris

I'd add that in practical terms Corbyn's proposals only involve changes to the Political Declaration, which the EU keeps telling us they are willing to consider.

Also, there's no way that any of what he's asking for can be binding on a future government, and if it were agreed, no one would be in any doubt about that.

But it's not acceptable because Theresa May has to try to keep her party in one piece, whatever the cost to the country. That may be a political fact, but it's hardly Corbyn's fault.

ydoethur

kle4 said:

TheJezziah said:

kle4 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1094517357807132672

I actually like Dan Hodges,

I have lost all respect for you.

Sorry. I think he's one note, not always convincing, but he can have an amusing turn of phrase and I enjoy his writing.

He's not in a very good mood today though, is he? Taken out of context, this could easily have been written by his fellow posh boy journalist Milne:

Labour's so-called moderates are not the heirs of Attlee, Wilson, and Blair. They are the heirs of Neville Chamberlain. Not since the 1930s have we seen a more squalid abandonment of basic political principle on the altar of personal expediency.

Actually, that's unfair to Chamberlain. He thought he was saving his nation from a war. Labour's moderate MPs are interested only in saving themselves.

SouthamObserver

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/claire_phipps/status/1094519224964399104?s=21

1. Corbyn is not alone in finding old buildings boring. I always struggled to get my lot to traipse round medieval towns if there was anything else to do.

2. I am surprised the Kaiser had a summer retreat in Austria-Hungary rather than in Germany.

Luckyguy1983

MarqueeMark said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1094524989775204352

Neil Blair. It really IS a Blairite coup.

Question is - does he have J K Rowling's millions behind him when he speaks?

If this happens it will save Corbyn.

Chris

SouthamObserver said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/claire_phipps/status/1094519224964399104?s=21

1. Corbyn is not alone in finding old buildings boring. I always struggled to get my lot to traipse round medieval towns if there was anything else to do.

2. I am surprised the Kaiser had a summer retreat in Austria-Hungary rather than in Germany.

But the Austrians used the same title for their emperors.

Big_G_NorthWales

Luckyguy1983 said:

MarqueeMark said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1094524989775204352

Neil Blair. It really IS a Blairite coup.

Question is - does he have J K Rowling's millions behind him when he speaks?

If this happens it will save Corbyn.

It is not going to happen but why would it save Corbyn if labour split

MarqueeMark

SouthamObserver said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/claire_phipps/status/1094519224964399104?s=21

1. Corbyn is not alone in finding old buildings boring. I always struggled to get my lot to traipse round medieval towns if there was anything else to do.

You are Phyllis Stein, and I claim my fiver......

You - and the little Phyllis Steins.

Essexit

Luckyguy1983 said:

MarqueeMark said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1094524989775204352

Neil Blair. It really IS a Blairite coup.

Question is - does he have J K Rowling's millions behind him when he speaks?

If this happens it will save Corbyn.

It'll certainly energise his base. I'm struggling to think of a trio more likely to antagonise them than Rowling/Riley/Blair.

AlastairMeeks

If you’re not put off by Jeremy Corbyn laying wreaths for terrorists, you’re not going to be too fussed that he doesn’t care for Secessionist architecture.

Scott_P

AlastairMeeks said:

If you’re not put off by Jeremy Corbyn laying wreaths for terrorists, you’re not going to be too fussed that he doesn’t care for Secessionist architecture.

But surely he hates "all architecture" equally..?

YBarddCwsc

The truth is, if you are a moderate Labour or Tory MP, your best bet at a personal level is to shut up, and wait a few years.

The pendulum will swing back. It always does. You will then find it far easier to attain power & influence.

By contrast, leave and it is many years of hard, thankless, and probably fruitless, slog.

Corby knew this. He never left Labour when it went through its "New Labour" incarnation. He knew he had to bide his time until the pendulum swung.

So, there won't be large-scale defections from either party.

As regards Rowling and the Blairs, that really is a Party of the Rich Multimillionaires. Look how damaging it has been to Macron to get labelled as the President of the Rich. Blair & Co pose no threat to anyone, except possibly Ms Rowling's reputation.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Cwsc, depends how tight a grip the tentacles of socialism get on the throat of Labour. The party may be permanently lost to the far left.