Watching the fantastic Europe documentary, it’s fascinating, isn’t it, how Greece was basically about to be pushed out of the Euro but for Francois Hollande ringing Tsipris up and saying, “mate - you’re about to be sooo fucked.”
Sadly, Theresa doesn’t have a single ally on the inside, having alienated the entire EU 27 with her rigidity, her insulting choice of Brexit ministers, and - worst of all - her double dealing.
However, nobody wants a No Deal.
Both May and the EU are can-kickers par excellence - and this can is gonna keep kicking until something changes on either the parliamentary or the EU’s side. We will see a delay. And if necessary, a delay to the delay, to avoid something which no side actually wants.
May main game plan is to wait for events to provide something - anything - to change numbers in the House, while trying to block avenues to Remain so that sane MPs will be forced to choose her Deal (or some variation of it).
Plan A, the “Fear of a No Deal” campaign doesn’t seem to be working, although she is obliged to stick with it. Plan B Is to apply pressure to Labour MPs to support an “orderly Brexit”. That is unlikely to work either. Even abstention is not actually in most Labour MP’s interests. Plan C is an election...however far-fetched this is now looking reasonably likely...
With respect to Mr Smithson, he and others have been banging on about how Labour will alienate Remain voters for years, and yet, despite Labour still "backing Brexit" by their definition, the Lib Dems are still stuck in single digits in the polls, with precious few converts from Labour.
Which isn't to say things are great for Labour, being behind in the polls in the current circumstances is pretty poor, but they're behind because the Tories' voteshare is surprisingly robust. It could be that going ultra-Remain will win votes from those well-known evangelists for the EU that the Tories are, but I somehow doubt it.
While I remain surprised Corbyn still backs Brexit so explicitly - I did think he would have switched to a referendum by now - I do still think that many people will be very surprised at how comparatively little impact being seen to back brexit would have for them. I can see different levels of impact depending on what brexit we get and how much Labour are involved (eg through abstention, actively supporting an amended deal, or just shared blame for no deal), but ultimately if you despise Brexit surely you'd want to punish the Tories first, and the Tories, incompetent as they are, might well win easily if Labour's support crashed because of Brexit.
Why would a Labour voting remainer want that, however angry they were at Corbyn for enabling Brexit?
Yes, exactly this. I won't deny for a second that Corbyn has facilitated Brexit and that the labour position has alternated between fudge and cowardice throughout, but it's ultimately the Tories that are driving the process. So if both parties are enacting a policy you hate, you kind of have to write it off and look at other priorities. If the Lib Dems were back where they were in 2005 this would be a very different story, and there would be a much bigger danger for Labour, but they just won't be able to present themaelves as a serious alternative now.
I hope Vanilla is not going to do a Disqus. Nothing, but nothing I have ever seen in 40 years of using computers, was as bad as their 'upgrade' which caused comments to start shifting slowly leftwards just as you started to read them.
What price a leadership challenge in Labour, post-Brexit? IF it happens, it is a serious possibility. Won't necessarily be successful, but someone leftish, reasonably loyal to Jez and thoroughly anti-Brexit would be much more in step with the membership.
THORNBERRY
I said it here FIRST. About three years ago. She sounds reassuringly posh to the centrists, yet she is reassuringly lefty to lefties.
surely she comes across as condescending to most of the electorate?
I don't think so.
OK I confess I find her oddly attractive. Milfy. And I am biassed the other way: I usually prefer elfin nymphettes, hence my 23 year old wife, who is tiny.
Is this too much info?
Whatevs. The fact is, if I can find her attractive, and also quite politically plausible, then I reckon quite large parts of the population might succumb to her charms. She's got a decent backstory (some real hardship), she would be Labour's first woman leader, she is fairly leftwing without being nuts, she is clearly politically astute, to survive the Corbyn regime while being considerably more right.
Yes, she is PC, yes she is patronising, yes she has some infuriatingly identitatarian views. But she is clever and quick, and she doesn't have the mad Hamas-loving, IRA-hugging, America hating, anti-Semitic, ultra Brexity Corbynite narrative that is Corbyn.
Facing a tired, post Brexit Tory party, with a dialled down but still leftwing manifesto, I think she would romp home. Unfortunately.
Which is why once Brexit is done (especially in the deal scenario) we need to change leader and lock in our Corbyn dividend for 5 years. Brenda from Bristol will just have to live with it.
I hope Vanilla is not going to do a Disqus. Nothing, but nothing I have ever seen in 40 years of using computers, was as bad as their 'upgrade' which caused comments to start shifting slowly leftwards just as you started to read them.
Physically moving, or the content became more Corbynista?
I hope Vanilla is not going to do a Disqus. Nothing, but nothing I have ever seen in 40 years of using computers, was as bad as their 'upgrade' which caused comments to start shifting slowly leftwards just as you started to read them.
Physically moving, or the content became more Corbynista?
The Lib Dems will stay marooned in the polls for as long as Low Voltage Cable is in charge. (Charge, geddit? Oh never mind...)
Swinson or, preferably, Moran would see them jump to 15%ish, I reckon, which is not enough to gain any sort of power but plenty enough to deprive Labour of it.
I hope Vanilla is not going to do a Disqus. Nothing, but nothing I have ever seen in 40 years of using computers, was as bad as their 'upgrade' which caused comments to start shifting slowly leftwards just as you started to read them.
Physically moving, or the content became more Corbynista?
Sorry, I should have been clearer. Posts made from mobile have the new look, wherever you read them. Posts made from desktop (for now) have the old appearance.
I’m writing this on my iPhone, so it appears as a new-style post even though you’re reading it on the desktop.
Indeed while the whole site is hideous on mobile. Names are unreadable small except quoted ones are massive for some reason so it's hard to tell who's writing a post.
Will be 50 days in 21 minutes. Sobering thought. I think that was part of what Tusk was implying today. Uniting the Tory Party for 2 weeks around a wholly imaginary re-negotiation is not a sustainable tactic.
Will be 50 days in 21 minutes. Sobering thought. I think that was part of what Tusk was implying today. Uniting the Tory Party for 2 weeks around a wholly imaginary re-negotiation is not a sustainable tactic.
No it isn't, but he's not helped unite anything by giving succor to the 'bollocks to the EU' crowd. He's made a resolution less possible.
Will be 50 days in 21 minutes. Sobering thought. I think that was part of what Tusk was implying today. Uniting the Tory Party for 2 weeks around a wholly imaginary re-negotiation is not a sustainable tactic.
No it isn't, but he's not helped unite anything by giving succor to the 'bollocks to the EU' crowd. He's made a resolution less possible.
Backing the ‘bollocks to the EU’ crowd into a corner is the only way to get them to face reality.
Psst. Seashells. Start hoarding them now - and when they become our new currency, you'll be able to buy the last packet of Chocolate Hobnobs. THAT'S gonna be a status symbol to flaunt.
Brexit to improve the fortunes of our left behind seaside towns!
What price a leadership challenge in Labour, post-Brexit? IF it happens, it is a serious possibility. Won't necessarily be successful, but someone leftish, reasonably loyal to Jez and thoroughly anti-Brexit would be much more in step with the membership.
THORNBERRY
I said it here FIRST. About three years ago. She sounds reassuringly posh to the centrists, yet she is reassuringly lefty to lefties.
surely she comes across as condescending to most of the electorate?
I don't think so.
OK I confess I find her oddly attractive. Milfy. And I am biassed the other way: I usually prefer elfin nymphettes, hence my 23 year old wife, who is tiny.
Is this too much info?
Whatevs. The fact is, if I can find her attractive, and also quite politically plausible, then I reckon quite large parts of the population might succumb to her charms. She's got a decent backstory (some real hardship), she would be Labour's first woman leader, she is fairly leftwing without being nuts, she is clearly politically astute, to survive the Corbyn regime while being considerably more right.
Yes, she is PC, yes she is patronising, yes she has some infuriatingly identitatarian views. But she is clever and quick, and she doesn't have the mad Hamas-loving, IRA-hugging, America hating, anti-Semitic, ultra Brexity Corbynite narrative that is Corbyn.
Facing a tired, post Brexit Tory party, with a dialled down but still leftwing manifesto, I think she would romp home. Unfortunately.
She'll do fantastically well in metropolitan areas, and possibly even make Labour competitive in some parts of Tory-dominated South East England. However, I think Middle England will hate her.
I still believe, however, that Labour won't elect a female leader unless the shortlist is essentially all female.
The Lib Dems will stay marooned in the polls for as long as Low Voltage Cable is in charge. (Charge, geddit? Oh never mind...)
Swinson or, preferably, Moran would see them jump to 15%ish, I reckon, which is not enough to gain any sort of power but plenty enough to deprive Labour of it.
It wasn't so long ago that people were claiming all the Lib Dems had to do was got a leader other than Farron, and they'd automatically fly up in the polls...
It wasn't widely believed they would be so dumb as to select a nuclear weapons touting dozy past it narcissist like Cable as a replacement for Farron
Isn’t that a rewrite of history - I though people expected Cable to win?
Will be 50 days in 21 minutes. Sobering thought. I think that was part of what Tusk was implying today. Uniting the Tory Party for 2 weeks around a wholly imaginary re-negotiation is not a sustainable tactic.
No it isn't, but he's not helped unite anything by giving succor to the 'bollocks to the EU' crowd. He's made a resolution less possible.
Backing the ‘bollocks to the EU’ crowd into a corner is the only way to get them to face reality.
It really isn't. Most of them want or are ok with no deal. Acting like a cock makes it easy for such people to claim that there's no point dealing with the EU at all as it won't act in good faith. Holding firm was backing them into a corner just fine without today's comments.
The Lib Dems will stay marooned in the polls for as long as Low Voltage Cable is in charge. (Charge, geddit? Oh never mind...)
Swinson or, preferably, Moran would see them jump to 15%ish, I reckon, which is not enough to gain any sort of power but plenty enough to deprive Labour of it.
Watt? Ohm my.....
Resistance is futile ...
If you carry on like that, you'll be charged with something ...
On topic: I'm confused. Labour has already backed Brexit. They voted for Article 50 to be invoked. They repeated their backing in the general election campaign. In fact their current position, repeated this evening, is that they back the most extreme form of crash-out no-deal Brexit, since the conditions they apply to backing any alternative are clearly unobtainable.
Now, I do of course understand that you have to be pretty thick to think that voting for Corbyn will make your or anyone else's life better, but are Labour supporters really so thick that they haven't yet understood that Corbyn backs Brexit?
It’s like those old M&S adverts though, Labour back a Labour Brexit, which will mean we leave the EU, get the money back, end bad freedom of movement, ensure good freedom of movement, and enter a customs union. Labour Brexit.
Will be 50 days in 21 minutes. Sobering thought. I think that was part of what Tusk was implying today. Uniting the Tory Party for 2 weeks around a wholly imaginary re-negotiation is not a sustainable tactic.
No it isn't, but he's not helped unite anything by giving succor to the 'bollocks to the EU' crowd. He's made a resolution less possible.
Backing the ‘bollocks to the EU’ crowd into a corner is the only way to get them to face reality.
It really isn't. Most of them want or are ok with no deal. Acting like a cock makes it easy for such people to claim that there's no point dealing with the EU at all as it won't act in good faith. Holding firm was backing them into a corner just fine without today's comments.
They say they want no deal, but no deal is still a game to them. By the time we’re at the end of March, it won’t be.
Yes, she is PC, yes she is patronising, yes she has some infuriatingly identitatarian views. But she is clever and quick, and she doesn't have the mad Hamas-loving, IRA-hugging, America hating, anti-Semitic, ultra Brexity Corbynite narrative that is Corbyn.
I can buy that bit. Have experienced a similarly inexplicable attraction to Warsi!
Will be 50 days in 21 minutes. Sobering thought. I think that was part of what Tusk was implying today. Uniting the Tory Party for 2 weeks around a wholly imaginary re-negotiation is not a sustainable tactic.
No it isn't, but he's not helped unite anything by giving succor to the 'bollocks to the EU' crowd. He's made a resolution less possible.
Well no indeed. However the bollocks to EU crowd have never really needed much encouragement.
It wasn't so long ago that people were claiming all the Lib Dems had to do was got a leader other than Farron, and they'd automatically fly up in the polls...
It wasn't widely believed they would be so dumb as to select a nuclear weapons touting dozy past it narcissist like Cable as a replacement for Farron
Isn’t that a rewrite of history - I though people expected Cable to win?
He was the only candidate - having previously inveighed against the evils of coronations, of course...
Will be 50 days in 21 minutes. Sobering thought. I think that was part of what Tusk was implying today. Uniting the Tory Party for 2 weeks around a wholly imaginary re-negotiation is not a sustainable tactic.
No it isn't, but he's not helped unite anything by giving succor to the 'bollocks to the EU' crowd. He's made a resolution less possible.
Backing the ‘bollocks to the EU’ crowd into a corner is the only way to get them to face reality.
Will be 50 days in 21 minutes. Sobering thought. I think that was part of what Tusk was implying today. Uniting the Tory Party for 2 weeks around a wholly imaginary re-negotiation is not a sustainable tactic.
No it isn't, but he's not helped unite anything by giving succor to the 'bollocks to the EU' crowd. He's made a resolution less possible.
Backing the ‘bollocks to the EU’ crowd into a corner is the only way to get them to face reality.
It really isn't. Most of them want or are ok with no deal. Acting like a cock makes it easy for such people to claim that there's no point dealing with the EU at all as it won't act in good faith. Holding firm was backing them into a corner just fine without today's comments.
MOST of them. However. The ones posing, posturing or with an eye to political advancement only can be peeled off. Maybe.
Will be 50 days in 21 minutes. Sobering thought. I think that was part of what Tusk was implying today. Uniting the Tory Party for 2 weeks around a wholly imaginary re-negotiation is not a sustainable tactic.
No it isn't, but he's not helped unite anything by giving succor to the 'bollocks to the EU' crowd. He's made a resolution less possible.
Well no indeed. However the bollocks to EU crowd have never really needed much encouragement.
True, it is hardly a defining factor in all this, but why give them such cover?
Will be 50 days in 21 minutes. Sobering thought. I think that was part of what Tusk was implying today. Uniting the Tory Party for 2 weeks around a wholly imaginary re-negotiation is not a sustainable tactic.
No it isn't, but he's not helped unite anything by giving succor to the 'bollocks to the EU' crowd. He's made a resolution less possible.
Well no indeed. However the bollocks to EU crowd have never really needed much encouragement.
True, it is hardly a defining factor in all this, but why give them such cover?
Will be 50 days in 21 minutes. Sobering thought. I think that was part of what Tusk was implying today. Uniting the Tory Party for 2 weeks around a wholly imaginary re-negotiation is not a sustainable tactic.
No it isn't, but he's not helped unite anything by giving succor to the 'bollocks to the EU' crowd. He's made a resolution less possible.
Backing the ‘bollocks to the EU’ crowd into a corner is the only way to get them to face reality.
Sorry, I should have been clearer. Posts made from mobile have the new look, wherever you read them. Posts made from desktop (for now) have the old appearance.
I’m writing this on my iPhone, so it appears as a new-style post even though you’re reading it on the desktop.
The new quote scheme looks naff. And will this make it a nightmare to deal removing nested comments when you reach the character limit (which will be hit a lot sooner...)
in fact, I hit the character limit trying to reply to that comment...
It will be a delicious irony if Brexit, which has (I confess) been so calamitously mishandled by the Tories, and is in many ways a product of europhile Tory lies (during Maastricht etc, and including Cameron's dismal "deal") ends up destroying.... Labour.
But I can see it happening under Corbyn.
This is certainly the end of Corbyn Labour. And possibly the end of the labour movement being whole enough to win GE in next thirty years.
What gave Labour last GE result and kept them at high levels was a remainers belief giving support to Labour would prevent / soften brexit. There is nothing Team Corbyn can do now to prevent the calamity coming their way. It’s out of their hands. If they want to act or react, its too late. If there was ever something they could do, such as throwing their weight behind a second ref and that softening brexit, that ship is scuttled. They can neither prevent what the DUP/Tories/Their own brexiters vote for in commons, nor win a GE if Tories go that route this spring.
Will be 50 days in 21 minutes. Sobering thought. I think that was part of what Tusk was implying today. Uniting the Tory Party for 2 weeks around a wholly imaginary re-negotiation is not a sustainable tactic.
No it isn't, but he's not helped unite anything by giving succor to the 'bollocks to the EU' crowd. He's made a resolution less possible.
Backing the ‘bollocks to the EU’ crowd into a corner is the only way to get them to face reality.
It really isn't. Most of them want or are ok with no deal. Acting like a cock makes it easy for such people to claim that there's no point dealing with the EU at all as it won't act in good faith. Holding firm was backing them into a corner just fine without today's comments.
All he said really is you’d better turn up with a plan that squares your red lines and all the promises you keep reiterating. Totally reasonable and fair thing to say.
Before I decide if fourth tier is dreadful, I do need to know how many tiers there are. Given our population and wealth I'd have thought third tier was about as low as one could go (below superpower and great power)
Brexit is a chronic disaster. 100 years ago Argentina was one of the world’s richest countries.
Could be worse. Mali was once famous for its riches...
Isn’t Venezuela sitting on the world’s largest reserves of its most prized commodity? Surely that would make it rich beyond measure?
Will be 50 days in 21 minutes. Sobering thought. I think that was part of what Tusk was implying today. Uniting the Tory Party for 2 weeks around a wholly imaginary re-negotiation is not a sustainable tactic.
No it isn't, but he's not helped unite anything by giving succor to the 'bollocks to the EU' crowd. He's made a resolution less possible.
Well no indeed. However the bollocks to EU crowd have never really needed much encouragement.
True, it is hardly a defining factor in all this, but why give them such cover?
Before I decide if fourth tier is dreadful, I do need to know how many tiers there are. Given our population and wealth I'd have thought third tier was about as low as one could go (below superpower and great power)
Brexit is a chronic disaster. 100 years ago Argentina was one of the world’s richest countries.
Could be worse. Mali was once famous for its riches...
Isn’t Venezuela sitting on the world’s largest reserves of its most prized commodity? Surely that would make it rich beyond measure?
My understanding is it is (or most) of low quality and requires expensive refinement. Needs a high world oil price to produce riches.
Before I decide if fourth tier is dreadful, I do need to know how many tiers there are. Given our population and wealth I'd have thought third tier was about as low as one could go (below superpower and great power)
Brexit is a chronic disaster. 100 years ago Argentina was one of the world’s richest countries.
Could be worse. Mali was once famous for its riches...
Isn’t Venezuela sitting on the world’s largest reserves of its most prized commodity? Surely that would make it rich beyond measure?
If by most prized commodity, you mean strikingly beautiful women, then yes, you are correct.
Nowhere in the world comes close. It's simply ridiculous.
Before I decide if fourth tier is dreadful, I do need to know how many tiers there are. Given our population and wealth I'd have thought third tier was about as low as one could go (below superpower and great power)
Brexit is a chronic disaster. 100 years ago Argentina was one of the world’s richest countries.
Could be worse. Mali was once famous for its riches...
Isn’t Venezuela sitting on the world’s largest reserves of its most prized commodity? Surely that would make it rich beyond measure?
They have massive reserves of gunky hydrocarbons that range from sticky to like shoe polish. They require specialist production and refining capabilities - and so are amongst the most expensive to produce. But yes, they have massive quantites. Measured at around 0.3 trillion barrels of reserves.
Bigger than Saudi's.
And nearer to the US.
You can see why Chavez might have been a tad paranoid.
Before I decide if fourth tier is dreadful, I do need to know how many tiers there are. Given our population and wealth I'd have thought third tier was about as low as one could go (below superpower and great power)
Brexit is a chronic disaster. 100 years ago Argentina was one of the world’s richest countries.
Could be worse. Mali was once famous for its riches...
Isn’t Venezuela sitting on the world’s largest reserves of its most prized commodity? Surely that would make it rich beyond measure?
If by most prized commodity, you mean strikingly beautiful women, then yes, you are correct.
Nowhere in the world comes close. It's simply ridiculous.
Ahem - Argentina has been on the phone....
Trouble with South America is that cosmetic surgery is just rife. As one old boy said to me down there,
"You might sleep with a beautiful heifer, but you have no idea how ugly the calf might come out looking like...."
Will be 50 days in 21 minutes. Sobering thought. I think that was part of what Tusk was implying today. Uniting the Tory Party for 2 weeks around a wholly imaginary re-negotiation is not a sustainable tactic.
No it isn't, but he's not helped unite anything by giving succor to the 'bollocks to the EU' crowd. He's made a resolution less possible.
Backing the ‘bollocks to the EU’ crowd into a corner is the only way to get them to face reality.
You need a very big corner. Much bigger after yesterday.
Before I decide if fourth tier is dreadful, I do need to know how many tiers there are. Given our population and wealth I'd have thought third tier was about as low as one could go (below superpower and great power)
Brexit is a chronic disaster. 100 years ago Argentina was one of the world’s richest countries.
Which tier of nation would you put Canada in? Australia? Or New Zealand?
Canada, Australia and New Zealand are all outward-looking nations not only founded on immigration but still recognising that. (They are also all resources economies so not a particularly good comparison for Britain anyway.)
Brexit was won through pandering to xenophobia. Britain’s future course is not that of Canada, Australia or New Zealand.
Before I decide if fourth tier is dreadful, I do need to know how many tiers there are. Given our population and wealth I'd have thought third tier was about as low as one could go (below superpower and great power)
Brexit is a chronic disaster. 100 years ago Argentina was one of the world’s richest countries.
You have said before that you could have been persuaded to the Brexit side if there had been a clear articulation of what a Britain outside the EU would be like and a clear plan for how to get from here to there. I paraphrase and hope I have not misrepresented you.
If so - and if such a plan had been articulated, then presumably you would be taking a different view. So it cannot be the concept of Brexit which is a chronic disaster but the particular Brexit we are enduring.
In short the disaster is contingent not inevitable. Or have I misunderstood you?
Apologies if so.
It’s not the what but the how. Because of how the vote was won: affluent reactionaries decided that it was worth indulging their own prejudices, even if that meant winning by lying to frightened people about immigration. It was a vote against the complexities of an interconnected world, a mandate for turning back the clock to a world that never existed.
That led directly to Theresa May’s negotiating aims, which led directly to where we are now. Britain now has choices and all of them lead to alternative disasters, depending on what malign course it decides to follow.
It’s a great shame but this will be played out over decades now.
Its impossible to know the winners and losers from the Brexit fiasco. Too manny twists and turns. May is clearly a loser. Her dismal career is over though she already owes Brexit for promotion beyond her abilities.
Is Corbyn going to hit the buffers? Will Labour be seen as the ERG's little helpers? There's going to be a lot of blame to go round. Were there any heroes? Tusk perhaps. At least he told it like it was. There's no Charlie Kennedy to collect the spoils of failure this time round.
Maybe as we tuck into our chlorinated Christmas dinners we can play that well known parlour game. Who really was responsible for Brexit?
While the allegations are contested - plenty of her staff talk of her in glowing terms - that itself is not exculpatory.
Reading this, I wouldn’t be putting any money on her: What is indisputable, however, is that Klobuchar’s office consistently has one of the highest rates of staff turnover in the Senate. From 2001 to 2016, she ranked No. 1 in the Senate for staff turnover as measured by LegiStorm, a widely used database of congressional staff salaries. She’s now third, behind Maryland Democrat Chris Van Hollen and Louisiana Republican John Kennedy...
While the allegations are contested - plenty of her staff talk of her in glowing terms - that itself is not exculpatory.
Reading this, I wouldn’t be putting any money on her: What is indisputable, however, is that Klobuchar’s office consistently has one of the highest rates of staff turnover in the Senate. From 2001 to 2016, she ranked No. 1 in the Senate for staff turnover as measured by LegiStorm, a widely used database of congressional staff salaries. She’s now third, behind Maryland Democrat Chris Van Hollen and Louisiana Republican John Kennedy...
Unless there's a lot more to it I think it's reasonably easy for Baemy to counter, combination of "my office has high standards" and "guys like X work here for a bit then go on to greater things". It's a good test to see what she's like at defence though.
[{"insert":"Do we really need two quote buttons one of which doesn't seem to work, an ultra white screen, no emojis and an inability to embed twitter posts (poor old ScottP won't know what to do)?\nNot impressed so far.\n"}]
You have said before that you could have been persuaded to the Brexit side if there had been a clear articulation of what a Britain outside the EU would be like and a clear plan for how to get from here to there. I paraphrase and hope I have not misrepresented you.
If so - and if such a plan had been articulated, then presumably you would be taking a different view. So it cannot be the concept of Brexit which is a chronic disaster but the particular Brexit we are enduring.
In short the disaster is contingent not inevitable. Or have I misunderstood you?
Apologies if so.
It’s not the what but the how. Because of how the vote was won: affluent reactionaries decided that it was worth indulging their own prejudices, even if that meant winning by lying to frightened people about immigration. It was a vote against the complexities of an interconnected world, a mandate for turning back the clock to a world that never existed.
That led directly to Theresa May’s negotiating aims, which led directly to where we are now. Britain now has choices and all of them lead to alternative disasters, depending on what malign course it decides to follow.
It’s a great shame but this will be played out over decades now.
Thank you. I would be interested in your answer to my other question in my previous post.
If the vote had been won on the basis of concern about QMV, for instance, in what way would the negotiating priorities would have changed?
The reason I am pressing you on this is this. It is the fact of leaving the current trading relationship which is likely to be harmful. If the vote had been won on a different basis or even on the basis of concerns about FOM - but without the two xenophobic posters or even xenophobia generally - but on the basis that, say, not being able to control who comes in from the EU makes it practically very difficult to plan public services / housing etc - the consequences for the negotiating priorities would have been the same. And, therefore, the potential economic harm.
So why would the how (of the campaign) matter if the consequences are the same?
I have my own view on the possible answers to this but would be interested in your views since you have made this point repeatedly.
"Mobile phones should be banned from the dinner table and bedtimes as part of a healthy approach to devices, the UK's four chief medical officers have said. Children should also take a break from screen-based activities every two hours, the guidance said."
Its impossible to know the winners and losers from the Brexit fiasco. Too manny twists and turns. May is clearly a loser. Her dismal career is over though she already owes Brexit for promotion beyond her abilities.
Is Corbyn going to hit the buffers? Will Labour be seen as the ERG's little helpers? There's going to be a lot of blame to go round. Were there any heroes? Tusk perhaps. At least he told it like it was. There's no Charlie Kennedy to collect the spoils of failure this time round.
Maybe as we tuck into our chlorinated Christmas dinners we can play that well known parlour game. Who really was responsible for Brexit?
Lots of people to blame.
But while Labour may be ERG’s little helpers in the short-term I think long-term it will be ERG who will be seen as Labour’s little helpers. Or, rather, Corbyn’s useful idiots.
It’s not the what but the how. Because of how the vote was won: affluent reactionaries decided that it was worth indulging their own prejudices, even if that meant winning by lying to frightened people about immigration. It was a vote against the complexities of an interconnected world, a mandate for turning back the clock to a world that never existed.
That led directly to Theresa May’s negotiating aims, which led directly to where we are now. Britain now has choices and all of them lead to alternative disasters, depending on what malign course it decides to follow.
It’s a great shame but this will be played out over decades now.
I take point with your description “affluent reactionaries”. Were they somehow more affluent than the remain side? Weren’t both campaigns run by wealthy politicians?
Also as I said yesterday there were two bases of support, people who wanted to end free movement (some of these people would be racist) and free traders / sovereign staters. The second group can hardly be classed as people frightened of an intereconnected world but people who want to engage.
Whilst you have made your point here repeatedly it makes it no more true by repetition - a small part of the campaign could have been how you describe but not the whole.
Wisdom of the crowds here... my dad has asked me (as someone clued up on Brexit apparently!?) whether it's a good idea for him to book a holiday where his flight returns on 30th March?
It's from outside the EU... The official guidance I found online is that the UK has bilateral ASAs with 111 countries, but doesn't seem to say which these are. Presumably they would include Turkey, Gulf countries....
My sense is that even if the permissions and everything are fine... the day after a potential No Deal Brexit might be a bit chaotic in the airport and therefore best avoided...
Its impossible to know the winners and losers from the Brexit fiasco. Too manny twists and turns. May is clearly a loser. Her dismal career is over though she already owes Brexit for promotion beyond her abilities.
Is Corbyn going to hit the buffers? Will Labour be seen as the ERG's little helpers? There's going to be a lot of blame to go round. Were there any heroes? Tusk perhaps. At least he told it like it was. There's no Charlie Kennedy to collect the spoils of failure this time round.
Maybe as we tuck into our chlorinated Christmas dinners we can play that well known parlour game. Who really was responsible for Brexit?
Lots of people to blame.
But while Labour may be ERG’s little helpers in the short-term I think long-term it will be ERG who will be seen as Labour’s little helpers. Or, rather, Corbyn’s useful idiots.
Don’t want to get into blame game. May could solve this still if she could compromise.
It’s not the what but the how. Because of how the vote was won: affluent reactionaries decided that it was worth indulging their own prejudices, even if that meant winning by lying to frightened people about immigration. It was a vote against the complexities of an interconnected world, a mandate for turning back the clock to a world that never existed.
That led directly to Theresa May’s negotiating aims, which led directly to where we are now. Britain now has choices and all of them lead to alternative disasters, depending on what malign course it decides to follow.
It’s a great shame but this will be played out over decades now.
I take point with your description “affluent reactionaries”. Were they somehow more affluent than the remain side? Weren’t both campaigns run by wealthy politicians?
Also as I said yesterday there were two bases of support, people who wanted to end free movement (some of these people would be racist) and free traders / sovereign staters. The second group can hardly be classed as people frightened of an intereconnected world but people who want to engage.
Whilst you have made your point here repeatedly it makes it no more true by repetition - a small part of the campaign could have been how you describe but not the whole.
A large part of the reason that Brexit will flop is that it cannot similtaneously satisfy the Hannanite Free Traders, and the downtrodden social conservatives of Hartlepool similtaneously. One or other is going to be very disappointed, and I think that it actually will be both. The Free Trading Atlanticists will be disappointed to find that their deals are significantly worse than the EU, and the social conservatives harking back to myths of England bestriding the world are going to find that it disrupts what little social cohesion that we have left. While I do expect Brexit to be economically damaging, it is the social and cultural decline that is the worst feature.
Bottom line is, as with so much else to do with Brexit, we can't know and haven't sufficient data to guess. So a prudent person would probably avoid that date to be on the safe side.
Bottom line is, as with so much else to do with Brexit, we can't know and haven't sufficient data to guess. So a prudent person would probably avoid that date to be on the safe side
Yup. Also something to be said for delaying it by a few days, to give you time to see what happens and decide whether you actually want to come back...
Its impossible to know the winners and losers from the Brexit fiasco. Too manny twists and turns. May is clearly a loser. Her dismal career is over though she already owes Brexit for promotion beyond her abilities.
Is Corbyn going to hit the buffers? Will Labour be seen as the ERG's little helpers? There's going to be a lot of blame to go round. Were there any heroes? Tusk perhaps. At least he told it like it was. There's no Charlie Kennedy to collect the spoils of failure this time round.
Maybe as we tuck into our chlorinated Christmas dinners we can play that well known parlour game. Who really was responsible for Brexit?
Lots of people to blame.
But while Labour may be ERG’s little helpers in the short-term I think long-term it will be ERG who will be seen as Labour’s little helpers. Or, rather, Corbyn’s useful idiots.
Don’t want to get into blame game. May could solve this still if she could compromise.
It doesn’t seem to be a word in her vocabulary.
I find the issue of the backstop puzzling, I must say. Its end date is the FTA. So it will only endure if there is no FTA.
So the concern seems to be that Britain and the EU could not agree an FTA. Or am I missing something?
I find the issue of the backstop puzzling, I must say. Its end date is the FTA. So it will only endure if there is no FTA.
So the concern seems to be that Britain and the EU could not agree an FTA. Or am I missing something?
Disagree, she always compromises. She compromises with whoever she has to compromise with to make it through to the next day. That's why she had the red lines she had (ERG compromise) yet agreed to the backstop, then the deal (EU compromise) then disagreed with her earlier self and agreed with the ERG again.
The hitch is that she doesn't do it until the last possible minute, and at that point it's not clear that there will be time to cobble anything together.
Bottom line is, as with so much else to do with Brexit, we can't know and haven't sufficient data to guess. So a prudent person would probably avoid that date to be on the safe side
Yup. Also something to be said for delaying it by a few days, to give you time to see what happens and decide whether you actually want to come back...
And don't forget the seashell/currency theory. You might have a real opportunity to bring something truly valuable back with you.
I'd really like to think that when everything proceeds and continues almost exactly the way it was before there might be some humility on the part of the catastrophists but I am not holding my breath.
I find the issue of the backstop puzzling, I must say. Its end date is the FTA. So it will only endure if there is no FTA.
So the concern seems to be that Britain and the EU could not agree an FTA. Or am I missing something?
Disagree, she always compromises. She compromises with whoever she has to compromise with to make it through to the next day. That's why she had the red lines she had (ERG compromise) yet agreed to the backstop, then the deal (EU compromise) then disagreed with her earlier self and agreed with the ERG again.
The hitch is that she doesn't do it until the last possible minute, and at that point it's not clear that there will be time to cobble anything together.
True. I don’t view that as compromise ie coming to a lasting agreement. That’s just agreeing to whoever she last speaks to in order to avoid reaching any decision.
And apparently she has now stopped agreeing with the ERG and is agreeing with the Irish.
[{"insert":{"mention":{"name":"Cyclefree","userID":127}}},{"insert":" It wouldn't be easy to negotiate in the time, certainly. Bearing in mind Juncker is about to leave office as well and the entirety of his team - Barnier and Selmayr - will surely go with him, although Weyand might stay. So we will be starting from scratch.\nThere's also the fear I think that once the EU activate the backstop they will make no effort to get out again. That's an irrational fear for three reasons: (1) the WA commits both sides to working 'in good faith' and the EU are not arbiters of what constitutes that. Failing to extend negotiations would be a clear breach of good faith and render the agreement void; (2) The EU's own rules state that the backstop is in effect illegal as Northern Ireland would have no mechanism for expressing its views, as the UK Parliament and Dublin would not have jurisdiction and nor would they, so a court challenge - again, the court in question wouldn't be in the EU - would almost certainly succeed; (3) Actually the backstop is the deal to end all deals for Northern Ireland and the UK. Every corp would want a headquarters in Belfast with unfettered access to all the big centres of Europe, plus North America. It would be Luxembourg under Juncker on speed. So it would damage the EU's efforts to maintain the single market and they would want shot of it - fast.\nBut unfortunately the ERG and the DUP are so stupid and paranoid they can't see this. And I don't think May is daring to make it plain in case MEPs vote it down as well.\n"}]
Its impossible to know the winners and losers from the Brexit fiasco. Too manny twists and turns. May is clearly a loser. Her dismal career is over though she already owes Brexit for promotion beyond her abilities.
Is Corbyn going to hit the buffers? Will Labour be seen as the ERG's little helpers? There's going to be a lot of blame to go round. Were there any heroes? Tusk perhaps. At least he told it like it was. There's no Charlie Kennedy to collect the spoils of failure this time round.
Maybe as we tuck into our chlorinated Christmas dinners we can play that well known parlour game. Who really was responsible for Brexit?
Lots of people to blame.
But while Labour may be ERG’s little helpers in the short-term I think long-term it will be ERG who will be seen as Labour’s little helpers. Or, rather, Corbyn’s useful idiots.
Don’t want to get into blame game. May could solve this still if she could compromise.
It doesn’t seem to be a word in her vocabulary.
I find the issue of the backstop puzzling, I must say. Its end date is the FTA. So it will only endure if there is no FTA.
So the concern seems to be that Britain and the EU could not agree an FTA. Or am I missing something?
No, that is exactly the problem. If we are committed to the backstop we are once again faced with a "take it or leave it" negotiation in respect of the FTA.
The fear is that we either get trapped into the backstop arrangement (which to me doesn't actually seem the worst scenario but concerns the slightly delusional "free traders") or a deal that very much favours the EU. Such a deal will focus on facilitating the continuation of our horrendous deficit in physical goods without facilitating our smaller but still significant surplus in services.
To me the solution is a back stop with a notice period in it that is sufficiently long to allow other arrangements to be made.
I find the issue of the backstop puzzling, I must say. Its end date is the FTA. So it will only endure if there is no FTA.
So the concern seems to be that Britain and the EU could not agree an FTA. Or am I missing something?
Disagree, she always compromises. She compromises with whoever she has to compromise with to make it through to the next day. That's why she had the red lines she had (ERG compromise) yet agreed to the backstop, then the deal (EU compromise) then disagreed with her earlier self and agreed with the ERG again.
The hitch is that she doesn't do it until the last possible minute, and at that point it's not clear that there will be time to cobble anything together.
True. I don’t view that as compromise ie coming to a lasting agreement. That’s just agreeing to whoever she last speaks to in order to avoid reaching any decision.
And apparently she has now stopped agreeing with the ERG and is agreeing with the Irish.
Ah, but she's met the N. Irish business leaders...... sensible practical people, and Sinn Fein, who are metamorphosing from gun-toting revolutionaries to practical politicians and been, temporarily at least convinced by them. She will now go to Brussels and, unless she's been irritated beyond measure by Tusk, she'll find her new views supported. So next week would be a good time for her to come back to the Commons and pick up enough support from Labour to get whatever she's now decided upon through.
Because if the ERG get to her and persuade her of the likely damage to the Tory Party she'll change her mind again!
On my desktop this morning PB looks and seems to act pretty much as normal (there is a weird down arrow on embedded tweets) but it looked horrible on my phone last night. I am almost frightened to look.
@Cyclefree It wouldn't be easy to negotiate in the time, certainly. Bearing in mind Juncker is about to leave office as well and the entirety of his team - Barnier and Selmayr - will surely go with him, although Weyand might stay. So we will be starting from scratch.
There's also the fear I think that once the EU activate the backstop they will make no effort to get out again. That's an irrational fear for three reasons: (1) the WA commits both sides to working 'in good faith' and the EU are not arbiters of what constitutes that. Failing to extend negotiations would be a clear breach of good faith and render the agreement void; (2) The EU's own rules state that the backstop is in effect illegal as Northern Ireland would have no mechanism for expressing its views, as the UK Parliament and Dublin would not have jurisdiction and nor would they, so a court challenge - again, the court in question wouldn't be in the EU - would almost certainly succeed; (3) Actually the backstop is the deal to end all deals for Northern Ireland and the UK. Every corp would want a headquarters in Belfast with unfettered access to all the big centres of Europe, plus North America. It would be Luxembourg under Juncker on speed. So it would damage the EU's efforts to maintain the single market and they would want shot of it - fast.
But unfortunately the ERG and the DUP are so stupid and paranoid they can't see this. And I don't think May is daring to make it plain in case MEPs vote it down as well.
I rather think starting again with a new team might be a good idea, certainly on our side. May has no understanding of commercial/business matters and is too much of a control freak to delegate to those who do.
I agree that the DUP and the ERG do not understand that the WA is not a bad deal from the UK’s perspective. And May is too stupid to sell its advantages.
She has also made a bad error in not making it clear that this is just a transitional arrangement and not the final deal. To hear many MPs speaking I’m not sure all of them understand that.
Its impossible to know the winners and losers from the Brexit fiasco. Too manny twists and turns. May is clearly a loser. Her dismal career is over though she already owes Brexit for promotion beyond her abilities.
Is Corbyn going to hit the buffers? Will Labour be seen as the ERG's little helpers? There's going to be a lot of blame to go round. Were there any heroes? Tusk perhaps. At least he told it like it was. There's no Charlie Kennedy to collect the spoils of failure this time round.
Maybe as we tuck into our chlorinated Christmas dinners we can play that well known parlour game. Who really was responsible for Brexit?
Lots of people to blame.
But while Labour may be ERG’s little helpers in the short-term I think long-term it will be ERG who will be seen as Labour’s little helpers. Or, rather, Corbyn’s useful idiots.
Don’t want to get into blame game. May could solve this still if she could compromise.
It doesn’t seem to be a word in her vocabulary.
I find the issue of the backstop puzzling, I must say. Its end date is the FTA. So it will only endure if there is no FTA.
So the concern seems to be that Britain and the EU could not agree an FTA. Or am I missing something?
The concern is that the EU would not negotiate the FTA in good faith, tying the UK into their trading system (with which they have a massive surplus with us) until we agree to their one-sided deal.
The public and private comments from several EU higher-ups in recent days and weeks only add credence to this theory, that their intentions are not honourable.
It has little to actually do with Northern Ireland, rather it's their way of asserting their superiority in the next stage of the negotiations.
A lot of news coverage now being given to the deliberate distortion of Donald Tusk's very delierate comment. It seems what he actually said would attract widespread agreement on both sides of the divide. The misleading version thanks to Peter Bone is yet more evidence that what he said is accurate
It wouldn't be easy to negotiate in the time, certainly. Bearing in mind Juncker is about to leave office as well and the entirety of his team - Barnier and Selmayr - will surely go with him, although Weyand might stay. So we will be starting from scratch.
I don't think Barnier is going anywhere; The current plan already has another two years of negotiations or maybe longer. And IIUC the positions Barnier is taking are mainly led by the 27 rather than Juncker, so his departure shouldn't make a huge difference to anything.
A lot of news coverage now being given to the deliberate distortion of Donald Tusk's very delierate comment. It seems what he actually said would attract widespread agreement on both sides of the divide. The misleading version thanks to Peter Bone is yet more evidence that what he said is accurate
Peter Bone is one of those destined for that circle of hell.
A lot of news coverage now being given to the deliberate distortion of Donald Tusk's very delierate comment. It seems what he actually said would attract widespread agreement on both sides of the divide. The misleading version thanks to Peter Bone is yet more evidence that what he said is accurate
Its not just the ERG that are distorting things, everyone is distorting everything , according to their own stance
@Cyclefree It wouldn't be easy to negotiate in the time, certainly. Bearing in mind Juncker is about to leave office as well and the entirety of his team - Barnier and Selmayr - will surely go with him, although Weyand might stay. So we will be starting from scratch.
There's also the fear I think that once the EU activate the backstop they will make no effort to get out again. That's an irrational fear for three reasons: (1) the WA commits both sides to working 'in good faith' and the EU are not arbiters of what constitutes that. Failing to extend negotiations would be a clear breach of good faith and render the agreement void; (2) The EU's own rules state that the backstop is in effect illegal as Northern Ireland would have no mechanism for expressing its views, as the UK Parliament and Dublin would not have jurisdiction and nor would they, so a court challenge - again, the court in question wouldn't be in the EU - would almost certainly succeed; (3) Actually the backstop is the deal to end all deals for Northern Ireland and the UK. Every corp would want a headquarters in Belfast with unfettered access to all the big centres of Europe, plus North America. It would be Luxembourg under Juncker on speed. So it would damage the EU's efforts to maintain the single market and they would want shot of it - fast.
But unfortunately the ERG and the DUP are so stupid and paranoid they can't see this. And I don't think May is daring to make it plain in case MEPs vote it down as well.
She has also made a bad error in not making it clear that this is just a transitional arrangement and not the final deal. To hear many MPs speaking I’m not sure all of them understand that.
I think you are being unnecessarily specific in that last sentence. One positive to come out of this is that the idea of a wise and informed leader who should be followed religiously (which Brits have always been highly skeptical about anyway) is surely in the bucket. Who could seriously doubt that our political class is inept, incompetent, ignorant and incapable after this?
It wouldn't be easy to negotiate in the time, certainly. Bearing in mind Juncker is about to leave office as well and the entirety of his team - Barnier and Selmayr - will surely go with him, although Weyand might stay. So we will be starting from scratch.
I don't think Barnier is going anywhere; The current plan already has another two years of negotiations or maybe longer. And IIUC the positions Barnier is taking are mainly led by the 27 rather than Juncker, so his departure shouldn't make a huge difference to anything.
Selmayr is certainly going nowhere either. He's the permanent head of the EU's civil service, the European Sir Humphrey.
It wouldn't be easy to negotiate in the time, certainly. Bearing in mind Juncker is about to leave office as well and the entirety of his team - Barnier and Selmayr - will surely go with him, although Weyand might stay. So we will be starting from scratch.
I don't think Barnier is going anywhere; The current plan already has another two years of negotiations or maybe longer. And IIUC the positions Barnier is taking are mainly led by the 27 rather than Juncker, so his departure shouldn't make a huge difference to anything.
There is a risk that the wine lake will once again start to grow...
He was also illegally appointed without competition and without due process over the heads of a number of abler candidates. He is seen (with good reason) as Juncker's personal stooge. He is widely loathed as a pompous bully (he insists everyone calls him 'Herr Professor Doktor Selmayr') and if anyone other than the EPP tops the poll he's toast.
Its impossible to know the winners and losers from the Brexit fiasco. Too manny twists and turns. May is clearly a loser. Her dismal career is over though she already owes Brexit for promotion beyond her abilities.
Is Corbyn going to hit the buffers? Will Labour be seen as the ERG's little helpers? There's going to be a lot of blame to go round. Were there any heroes? Tusk perhaps. At least he told it like it was. There's no Charlie Kennedy to collect the spoils of failure this time round.
Maybe as we tuck into our chlorinated Christmas dinners we can play that well known parlour game. Who really was responsible for Brexit?
Lots of people to blame.
But while Labour may be ERG’s little helpers in the short-term I think long-term it will be ERG who will be seen as Labour’s little helpers. Or, rather, Corbyn’s useful idiots.
Don’t want to get into blame game. May could solve this still if she could compromise.
It doesn’t seem to be a word in her vocabulary.
I find the issue of the backstop puzzling, I must say. Its end date is the FTA. So it will only endure if there is no FTA.
So the concern seems to be that Britain and the EU could not agree an FTA. Or am I missing something?
No, that is exactly the problem. If we are committed to the backstop we are once again faced with a "take it or leave it" negotiation in respect of the FTA.
The fear is that we either get trapped into the backstop arrangement (which to me doesn't actually seem the worst scenario but concerns the slightly delusional "free traders") or a deal that very much favours the EU. Such a deal will focus on facilitating the continuation of our horrendous deficit in physical goods without facilitating our smaller but still significant surplus in services.
To me the solution is a back stop with a notice period in it that is sufficiently long to allow other arrangements to be made.
Thanks. That may be a solution. That doesn’t deal with your good point about services but that follows on from (a) a failure to take any account of services in the WA - partly as a result of May having no understanding of how Britain earns its living; (b) the imbalance of power between Britain and the EU; and (c) May making not being in the SM a red line since it is not being in the SM which will prejudice our services sector.
Comments
Finally, something has united PB. Something not even the hatred of pineapple on pizza, or Radiohead could do.
An I turning into a Luddite?
https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/2193578#Comment_2193578Sorry, I should have been clearer. Posts made from mobile have the new look, wherever you read them. Posts made from desktop (for now) have the old appearance.
I’m writing this on my iPhone, so it appears as a new-style post even though you’re reading it on the desktop.
I still believe, however, that Labour won't elect a female leader unless the shortlist is essentially all female.
https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5c5a1cb1e4b0871047588649?ncid=engmodushpmg00000004
https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/2193612#Comment_2193612Why would they wake up then but not now?
Maybe.
A pleasant night to all.
in fact, I hit the character limit trying to reply to that comment...
What gave Labour last GE result and kept them at high levels was a remainers belief giving support to Labour would prevent / soften brexit. There is nothing Team Corbyn can do now to prevent the calamity coming their way. It’s out of their hands. If they want to act or react, its too late. If there was ever something they could do, such as throwing their weight behind a second ref and that softening brexit, that ship is scuttled. They can neither prevent what the DUP/Tories/Their own brexiters vote for in commons, nor win a GE if Tories go that route this spring.
https://twitter.com/ep_president/status/1093201532332531712?s=21
Nowhere in the world comes close. It's simply ridiculous.
Bigger than Saudi's.
And nearer to the US.
You can see why Chavez might have been a tad paranoid.
Trouble with South America is that cosmetic surgery is just rife. As one old boy said to me down there,
"You might sleep with a beautiful heifer, but you have no idea how ugly the calf might come out looking like...."
https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/flu-outbreak/365309
Brexit was won through pandering to xenophobia. Britain’s future course is not that of Canada, Australia or New Zealand. It’s not the what but the how. Because of how the vote was won: affluent reactionaries decided that it was worth indulging their own prejudices, even if that meant winning by lying to frightened people about immigration. It was a vote against the complexities of an interconnected world, a mandate for turning back the clock to a world that never existed.
That led directly to Theresa May’s negotiating aims, which led directly to where we are now. Britain now has choices and all of them lead to alternative disasters, depending on what malign course it decides to follow.
It’s a great shame but this will be played out over decades now.
Is Corbyn going to hit the buffers? Will Labour be seen as the ERG's little helpers? There's going to be a lot of blame to go round. Were there any heroes? Tusk perhaps. At least he told it like it was. There's no Charlie Kennedy to collect the spoils of failure this time round.
Maybe as we tuck into our chlorinated Christmas dinners we can play that well known parlour game. Who really was responsible for Brexit?
Reading this, I wouldn’t be putting any money on her:
What is indisputable, however, is that Klobuchar’s office consistently has one of the highest rates of staff turnover in the Senate. From 2001 to 2016, she ranked No. 1 in the Senate for staff turnover as measured by LegiStorm, a widely used database of congressional staff salaries. She’s now third, behind Maryland Democrat Chris Van Hollen and Louisiana Republican John Kennedy...
Official government advice:
"Mobile phones should be banned from the dinner table and bedtimes as part of a healthy approach to devices, the UK's four chief medical officers have said.
Children should also take a break from screen-based activities every two hours, the guidance said."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-47150658
Hmm. I understand why this court order has been obtained. But not necessarily a good look.
But while Labour may be ERG’s little helpers in the short-term I think long-term it will be ERG who will be seen as Labour’s little helpers. Or, rather, Corbyn’s useful idiots.
Also as I said yesterday there were two bases of support, people who wanted to end free movement (some of these people would be racist) and free traders / sovereign staters. The second group can hardly be classed as people frightened of an intereconnected world but people who want to engage.
Whilst you have made your point here repeatedly it makes it no more true by repetition - a small part of the campaign could have been how you describe but not the whole.
It's from outside the EU... The official guidance I found online is that the UK has bilateral ASAs with 111 countries, but doesn't seem to say which these are. Presumably they would include Turkey, Gulf countries....
My sense is that even if the permissions and everything are fine... the day after a potential No Deal Brexit might be a bit chaotic in the airport and therefore best avoided...
https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/2193649#Comment_2193649Seems at least equally possible nobody will be booking flights from the EU at least and therefore the airport will be eerily quiet.
Bottom line is, as with so much else to do with Brexit, we can't know and haven't sufficient data to guess. So a prudent person would probably avoid that date to be on the safe side.
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1093403349993644032https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/2193650#Comment_2193650Hi Scott
You now need to click on 'embed' (the button in the middle at the bottom with two arrows on it) to show the Tweet rather than just a URL.
No idea why Vanilla think that's an improvement.
I find the issue of the backstop puzzling, I must say. Its end date is the FTA. So it will only endure if there is no FTA.
So the concern seems to be that Britain and the EU could not agree an FTA. Or am I missing something?
The hitch is that she doesn't do it until the last possible minute, and at that point it's not clear that there will be time to cobble anything together.
https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/2193654#Comment_2193654The second quote button works!
I'd really like to think that when everything proceeds and continues almost exactly the way it was before there might be some humility on the part of the catastrophists but I am not holding my breath.
And apparently she has now stopped agreeing with the ERG and is agreeing with the Irish.
The fear is that we either get trapped into the backstop arrangement (which to me doesn't actually seem the worst scenario but concerns the slightly delusional "free traders") or a deal that very much favours the EU. Such a deal will focus on facilitating the continuation of our horrendous deficit in physical goods without facilitating our smaller but still significant surplus in services.
To me the solution is a back stop with a notice period in it that is sufficiently long to allow other arrangements to be made.
She will now go to Brussels and, unless she's been irritated beyond measure by Tusk, she'll find her new views supported.
So next week would be a good time for her to come back to the Commons and pick up enough support from Labour to get whatever she's now decided upon through.
Because if the ERG get to her and persuade her of the likely damage to the Tory Party she'll change her mind again!
I agree that the DUP and the ERG do not understand that the WA is not a bad deal from the UK’s perspective. And May is too stupid to sell its advantages.
She has also made a bad error in not making it clear that this is just a transitional arrangement and not the final deal. To hear many MPs speaking I’m not sure all of them understand that.
The public and private comments from several EU higher-ups in recent days and weeks only add credence to this theory, that their intentions are not honourable.
It has little to actually do with Northern Ireland, rather it's their way of asserting their superiority in the next stage of the negotiations.
https://twitter.com/bbcnormans/status/1093404979975671808?s=21
He was also illegally appointed without competition and without due process over the heads of a number of abler candidates. He is seen (with good reason) as Juncker's personal stooge. He is widely loathed as a pompous bully (he insists everyone calls him 'Herr Professor Doktor Selmayr') and if anyone other than the EPP tops the poll he's toast.
And 'quote' has stopped working on my iPad, even though I have two buttons on my iPhone.
This is hopeless.