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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The resilient PM ploughs on to March 29th and her running down
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The resilient PM ploughs on to March 29th and her running down the clock strategy might just work
In a very uncertain political environment in the UK one thing we can predict with some certainty is that these few months in British politics will be the focus of massive amount of study and examination in decades to come. How did we get to where we are and most of all was the PM’s approach the right one?
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"Throughout the EU referendum campaign, both the Remain and Leave sides have made frequent claims about what might happen to the border in the event of a UK exit from the EU.
During a visit to Warrenpoint Harbour, in Co Down, Chancellor George Osborne said: "There would have to be a hardening of the border imposed by the British Government or indeed by the Irish Government and that would have an impact on business."
She is certainly not prioritising the economy by taking us out of the single market and the customs union.
One other thing that has changed about Northern Ireland. During the troubles you had politicians like David Trimble and John Hume trying to bring peace to the place. Now you have the DUP and Sinn Fein. Why do people expect the British taxpayer to indefinitely write cheques to keep the place going when it is so alien to them - and even the unionists openly accept 'bribes' from the government? And then the south insists that if we want a customs border NI must be on their side of it. Britain however must keep paying the bills.
She obfuscates and procrastinates but, end of the day, she has a deal which, with one major tweak, she will probably get through Parliament. She took the first defeat on the chin and it was probably always going to happen: MPs wanting to rattle the cage before everyone settled down.
I thought in the last vote she was absolutely brilliant. In marked contrast to Corbyn.
In fact, I think she'd have to adopt that approach because I doubt that Corbyn would ever do a deal with Tories.
May needs to split these loons off from the wider ERG.
Maybe with 'my deal' or Revoke threat discussed yesterday.
It was a function of the IRA realising they couldn't achieve a military victory, the USA finally closing down funding and support for them, and a sensible political compromise that offered something to all sides, from renaming the RUC, to allowing NI residents to carry either Irish or British passports, and retaining it within the UK until a majority of its residents decide otherwise.
It was a battle of the heart and soul, not of technocracy. No doubt open borders for goods and trade made that easier, but the UK and Eire already have very open arrangements between each other anyway, and if the EU were being fully constructive they'd be much more flexible.
The ERG and the DUP and Corbyn are running down the clock. May is simply strapped into the driver's seat and pretending that she doesn't know the brakes have been cut.
It's almost a perfect description.
But then I think: OK, who specifically is going to do that? And I can't think of enough guys, which says to me that she has no plan and she'll be the one who ends up sucking it up and doing... well, who knows what she'll do.
Strictly speaking, the red diagonal cross on the Union flag would become historic, and some may argue the flag should revert to its 18thC design, but in practice I very much doubt that would happen.
I doubt this would happen even at 10.59pm on 29th March with No Deal seconds away.
It's not a thing any sane Labour MP with serious hopes of remaining such after the next election will seriously contemplate.
The danger with making "it's me or the dog" style ultimatums is that there's a high chance they're gonna choose the dog.
What a mess.
May is still trying to find a way to thread the needle between various intransigent groups. I suspect that she has long since stopped caring what the solution is provided that she can find one that will both meet the approval of the EU and pass Parliament.
It remains a difficult task. On the positive side what she brings to the task is determination, hard work, diligence and an attention to detail. Unfortunately she also brings a remarkably unpersuasive personality, a lack of collegiality and an inability to read people sufficiently well to find out where the margins for an agreement are. Her tendency to think that she has solved a problem because she has given a speech about it is particularly unfortunate.
O/T with apols, but I've just noticed a new betting market offered by smarkets, based on Labour's share of the vote at the next GE (odds are also available for other parties), which at first glance appears to offer an almost guaranteed return by selecting two tranches of support.
For 20%-29% they go 6.6
For 30-39% they go 2.14
Therefore, by staking 24.49% on the lower band and the remaining 75.51% on the upper band, a 60.4% profit is achieved, net of their 2% commission, should either band prove successful. EXCEPT for the fact that there's just an itsy, bitsy snag. Should Labour's share of the vote fall in the 1% band between 29.01%-29.99% range, you would then lose your dough.
Clever but crafty marketing by smarkets it would appear. Still they appear to be alone in coming up with innovative markets for the next GE, which is no bad thing considering that the bookmaking fraternity consider there is a 30% likelihood of this taking place during 2019.
She has said that she will not allow No Deal. Now I know she has in the past said one thing and done another but this would be one hell of a call.
Personally, I think she would revoke, but nobody will know until the situation arises.
The 360 degree catastrofuck of Brexit is probably seeding decades of grievance for us to fight and die over. The Brexit show trials are gonna be amazing.
The Yellow Bellies (or whatever they are called) have been a massive boost for Macca, who can now present himself as a sensible, pro-business moderate in the face of a bunch of crackpot Brexity nutters.
His approvals are very strong given that France has a run-off system. Looks a strong bet for re-election to me, as much as the PB Tory Leavers fantasise otherwise.
Perhaps if Corbyn just lets it be known he won't mind abstainers ......
He was wrong-footed by the Gjs initially and is fighting his way back. I'm still not sure they have been a net positive for him.
'There is, we'd simply become the United Kingdom of Great Britain (without the Northern Ireland bit).
Strictly speaking, the red diagonal cross on the Union flag would become historic, and some may argue the flag should revert to its 18thC design, but in practice I very much doubt that would happen.'
The diagonal red cross is actually the St Patrick saltire - and the general understanding is that he was a Welshman who was captured by Irish pirates and taken to Ireland as a slave. So presumably nothing wrong with keeping that element of the flag to celebrate a great Welshman!
We are all aware that Australia and New Zealand still have the union flag on their national flags - but so do several Canadian provinces (e.g. Manitoba, British Colombia and Ontario) as does Fiji. Even the flag of Hawaii has a union flag on it - as their King wanted to celebrate their friendship with Britain. So I presume they wouldn't change their flags either - providing they celebrated 17 March with a pint of Guinness.
Norway+ would meet five of them, but RoboMay would have to give up her beloved xenophobia and relent on FoM first. But nobody is prepared to install the firmware update to allow the Maybot to demonstrate that kind of flexibility.
It's no surprise someone like you supports it.
It's entirely in keeping with your contemptuous, pompous and conceited globalist fundamentalist absolutism, which exhibits a zeal even William Glenn would struggle to match.
She will not revoke. She may punt it out another couple of months, but she will never revoke.
It wasn't really focused on be Remain. Nigel Lawson (Vote Leave) did note that border checks would be required.
http://www.irishnews.com/news/2016/04/11/news/former-chancellor-lawson-says-brexit-would-mean-irish-border-controls-481442/
“The start of the German economy into 2019 has been a major disappointment so far.
“The development of several key cyclical indicators is telling us that the German economy is drifting towards recession right now.”
ouch.
What did people see in Dr Liam Fox?
I think we've all worked with people who were superficially very plausible. They look you in the eye. They speak to you with confidence. Admirable qualities in a doctor, and pretty good ones in a politician.
But the DfIT isn't a job for those with confidence and assurance, it's managing a large department, and knowing a thousand details. It requires understanding complex issues, huge tomes of international law, and being able to understand both the needs of the British economy and understanding what our trading partners want.
Dr Fox came into the DfIT full of vim and vigour. He knew what - big picture - he wanted. He wanted to spearhead a change in the direction of Britain away from its continental neighbours and towards the Anglosphere. 20-odd experienced trade negotiators were sent off to Canberra to discuss plans for a post-Brexit deal with the Australians. Another team decamped to Washington DC. He got a team of bright civil servants to write a paper on "Tariffs for a 21st Century Britain".
But what he totally failed to focus on, because it was boring and minutiae, was the UK's existing arrangements through the EU. These weren't just free trade deals, but mutual standards agreements, and dispute recognition mechanisms.
The very first priority for the DfIT had to be in replicating existing trading agreements as much as possible. So, that meant working out a replacement for the Atlantic Council (which deals with US-EU trade), and a million other small things.
This failure massively weakened the hands of Britain's negotiators in Brussels. Claiming you were ready to leave without a deal when you had done so little to prepare the groundwork make our threats - at best - seem hollow.
Dr Fox would, I suspect, make an excellent Conservative Party Chairman. Sadly, that was not the role he was thrust into.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/09/tony-blair-and-john-major-brexit-would-close-irish-border
I'd expect about 90 Tory MPs to still vote against this, but perhaps 50 Labour MPs to come on board.
That'd get her up to about 275 votes. She'd either need a lot of abstentions on both sides, or Corbyn to whip the WA for it to pass as otherwise she'd still have 355 votes or so against it.
The EU just doesn't figure.
I agree that there would probably need to be some form of understanding with Labour MPs to get the necessary votes - and I think 30 or so is the minimum - but that could be given by statements in the House, rather than in a signed document.
Whatever the 'deal' is would need to be delivered quickly - presumably in the Act implementing the WA - because there's a good chance of either a GE or a new Tory PM later this year.
Her thought process is - essentially - "If the EU is agreeing to this, we must be being screwed over."
And this is the fundamental problem that Mrs May has. There are 20 complete idiots in the ERG, who probably won't vote for anything. So, while time limiting the backstop - or allowing an independent body to adjudge whether the EU was acting in good faith in trying to implement a technological solution - would be enough for the DUP and 60-odd Conservative rebels, it probably still isn't enough.
So... what next?
Indeed there is polling evidence that while prosperous Shire Tories are still firm for Brexit, it is the WWC Northerners who have shifted against Brexit.
I could imagine the EU agreeing ten years, but some on the ERG side wanted 10 months.
One is a backstop and the other isn't.
Such polling I have seen suggests that Labour Leave voters don't generally feel as strongly about Brexit as their Tory counterparts, but I'm not a member and haven't spent most of my life working for them, so I'd defer on this matter to anyone who has.
They've dismissed out of hand every possible alternative to the NI backstop, except a full permanent customs union, which they seem remarkably keen on, and I'm not convinced they're negotiating in good faith.
Varakhar is dancing with the devil. The "price" the EU will exact for their "support" is Eire giving in to QMV on federalised tax regulation, and it's a cheque they can't wait to cash in.
It directly contravenes what May promised during her Lancaster House speech
It directly contradicts the Tory manifesto
It directly contradicts her instructions from Parliament
It is diametrically opposed to what most Tory leavers want
It doesn't obviate the need for a backstop
It doesn't meet Labour's six tests.
To whom, exactly, is such a ridiculous "compromise" meant to appeal?
Macron has got a modest boost because he bribed sections of the electorate by cutting taxes for pensioners and raising the minimum wage. Certainly noble things - but not exactly taking those radical steps to reform France.
He was celebrated on his election as some centrist, reforming saviour of Europe - not so more as even on recent polls he has a disapproval rating of around 70%.
Perhaps he is 'pro business' - but it seems to be more 'big' business. And its of course far too easy to label the yellow vest protestors as 'crackpot Brexity nutters' - it avoids having to deal with some of the genuine concerns they have. I wasn't aware they were protesting in favour of Brexit?