Have a small population and discover vast quantities of oil and gas offshore.
I never tire of telling the story of the lengthy border negotiations between the UK and Norway, to define the boundary between the two countries. Assumed a fairly esoteric exercise, there were occasional meetings over a period of years. One day, after the Norwegians had treated our team to a slap up lunch, we caved in and accepted their proposal.
The section we had agreed to give away included huge hydrocarbon deposits in the Statfjord, Gullfacks, Sleipner and Frigg fields. If we had held the line in those talks, Norway's oil fund of around a trillion dollars would have been significantly the UK's.
Thatcher would have wasted it, like she did the rest of Scotland's oil
Spotted in the Sunday Times that the EY Item Club are forecasting growth of 0.7% this year and 0.6% next year if we leave with no deal. That does not sound like much of an economic catastrophe. My apologies if this has been covered on here earlier today.
You missed this bit
EY Item Club, which uses the Treasury’s forecasting model, expects the economy to expand by 0.7% this year and 0.6% next year under a no-deal Brexit — with the potential for a recession in the second half of 2019.
Spotted in the Sunday Times that the EY Item Club are forecasting growth of 0.7% this year and 0.6% next year if we leave with no deal. That does not sound like much of an economic catastrophe. My apologies if this has been covered on here earlier today.
You missed this bit
EY Item Club, which uses the Treasury’s forecasting model, expects the economy to expand by 0.7% this year and 0.6% next year under a no-deal Brexit — with the potential for a recession in the second half of 2019.
Not much of a recession given those growth figures.
Spotted in the Sunday Times that the EY Item Club are forecasting growth of 0.7% this year and 0.6% next year if we leave with no deal. That does not sound like much of an economic catastrophe. My apologies if this has been covered on here earlier today.
You missed this bit
EY Item Club, which uses the Treasury’s forecasting model, expects the economy to expand by 0.7% this year and 0.6% next year under a no-deal Brexit — with the potential for a recession in the second half of 2019.
With those numbers it would be a very small recession, 0.5, 0.5, -0.2, -0.1? Even with opportunity cost it's not exactly earth shattering.
I think it would be significantly worse. I'd take a guess at -1.2% for the year overall with a recession continuing into early 2020.
Sorry about the article. It was originally intended to cover the amendments and was submitted midweek to be published today. But the unexpected kerfuffle with the extension forced a rewrite and what was a simple article with two tables became a complex one with (at one point) five tables, which was reduced to three. If time had permitted I would have translated the odds as probabilities and depicted the results as three or four graphs, but it did not and the final version was submitted at approx 3am my time. Hopefully the next one will be bettet
If avocados are Remain fruit, which fruits are distinctively Leave?
And it seems now as part of their penance for not supporting the Leave death cult, Remainers are obliged to tour northern English blots on the landscape to see third rate paintings rather than visit internationally famous art galleries in world-famous cultural destinations of unsurpassed beauty. Could we be issued with itineraries (tentatively to be named The Fourteen Stations Of The Wrong Cross)?
turnips
obviously
Turnips are a vegetable.
The Leave fruit would be an apple, but an Irish Peach - comes around quickly, and about half of people say it tastes delicious when you pick it, but if you leave it even for a short time it goes off and causes a bad taste, being then useful for nothing and nobody.
Ironically I suggest the leaver fruit is a Seville Orange. Looks lovely growing on the tree, full of promise. You pick it full of hope. Then you take a bite.
Then you discover that a minimal input of time and effort transforms it into the most delicious, and most distinctively British, foodstuff known to mankind.
Tricky things, analogies.
Terry's Chocolate Orange?
Only joking. I've been Brexi-hoarding Duerr's (which is unaccountably cheaper than the sugary jelly which passes for Robertson's Marmalade) just in case.
I have 2kg of the things themselves sitting in the kitchen waiting to be processed.
I am also quite seriously starting to build up reserves of tins, rice and pasta, starting tomorrow. Leaver bravado about Project Fear is starting to sound a bit hollow.
I will give you a leaver tip. Think of what project fear says will be rotting at the ports. You should have your seedlings in for Toms, pots and salad leaves plus other veggies you like. Bought your polytunnels, rotovated the lawn and covered it in cow shit. That plus beef and pork in the freezer and a good stock of olive oil is the answer if you are a believer.
Pasta, rice and tinned stuff will be freely available, it does not rot at the port.
My local shops seem to have sold out of potato seeds already though.
If avocados are Remain fruit, which fruits are distinctively Leave?
And it seems now as part of their penance for not supporting the Leave death cult, Remainers are obliged to tour northern English blots on the landscape to see third rate paintings rather than visit internationally famous art galleries in world-famous cultural destinations of unsurpassed beauty. Could we be issued with itineraries (tentatively to be named The Fourteen Stations Of The Wrong Cross)?
turnips
obviously
Turnips are a vegetable.
The Leave fruit would be an apple, but an Irish Peach - comes around quickly, and about half of people say it tastes delicious when you pick it, but if you leave it even for a short time it goes off and causes a bad taste, being then useful for nothing and nobody.
Ironically I suggest the leaver fruit is a Seville Orange. Looks lovely growing on the tree, full of promise. You pick it full of hope. Then you take a bite.
Then you discover that a minimal input of time and effort transforms it into the most delicious, and most distinctively British, foodstuff known to mankind.
Tricky things, analogies.
Terry's Chocolate Orange?
Only joking. I've been Brexi-hoarding Duerr's (which is unaccountably cheaper than the sugary jelly which passes for Robertson's Marmalade) just in case.
I have 2kg of the things themselves sitting in the kitchen waiting to be processed.
I am also quite seriously starting to build up reserves of tins, rice and pasta, starting tomorrow. Leaver bravado about Project Fear is starting to sound a bit hollow.
You are well behind the curve.
But here's the thing. You can't sensibly prepare for rioting in the street social breakdown Brexit unless you stocking up on propane tanks and other survivalist shit.
The best you can prepare for, without being a whackjob, is mildly inconveniencing Brexit, low stock of things you like. Thus our 6 month supply of capers and nice olives.
Spotted in the Sunday Times that the EY Item Club are forecasting growth of 0.7% this year and 0.6% next year if we leave with no deal. That does not sound like much of an economic catastrophe. My apologies if this has been covered on here earlier today.
You missed this bit
EY Item Club, which uses the Treasury’s forecasting model, expects the economy to expand by 0.7% this year and 0.6% next year under a no-deal Brexit — with the potential for a recession in the second half of 2019.
With those numbers it would be a very small recession, 0.5, 0.5, -0.2, -0.1? Even with opportunity cost it's not exactly earth shattering.
I think it would be significantly worse. I'd take a guess at -1.2% for the year overall with a recession continuing into early 2020.
You may or may not be right. However, the Item Club are serious players and I would expect their projections to get some air time in the media. The media seem keen enough to cover the "expert and independent" reports of impending economic disaster in the event of no deal.
Swearing in French, it's like wiping your arse with silk.
As I recall, you had to pineapple pizza after a certain bet although here were comments about 'cow botherers' when you lot. Are you saying you didn't keep it?
I could just merder a good line in swearing over the current impasse in Parliament.
It was more half a slice rather a full pizza.
Actually, I'm going to leave it there, because I think on re-reading my comment you deserve a medal for working out what I meant.
How does SeanT do it (that is, post vaguely coherently while pissed)?
Swearing in French, it's like wiping your arse with silk.
As I recall, you had to pineapple pizza after a certain bet although here were comments about 'cow botherers' when you lot. Are you saying you didn't keep it?
I could just merder a good line in swearing over the current impasse in Parliament.
It was more half a slice rather a full pizza.
Actually, I'm going to leave it there, because I think on re-reading my comment you deserve a medal for working out what I meant.
How does SeanT do it (that is, post vaguely coherently while pissed)?
Practice.
It's easy if you're used to it.
I remember once chatting to a minister at a Conservative conference, when so drunk, I had no memory of what I had said. But, the following day, was complimented for the excellent points I had made (people were not being sarcastic ).
If avocados are Remain fruit, which fruits are distinctively Leave?
And it seems now as part of their penance for not supporting the Leave death cult, Remainers are obliged to tour northern English blots on the landscape to see third rate paintings rather than visit internationally famous art galleries in world-famous cultural destinations of unsurpassed beauty. Could we be issued with itineraries (tentatively to be named The Fourteen Stations Of The Wrong Cross)?
turnips
obviously
Turnips are a vegetable.
The Leave fruit would be an apple, but an Irish Peach - comes around quickly, and about half of people say it tastes delicious when you pick it, but if you leave it even for a short time it goes off and causes a bad taste, being then useful for nothing and nobody.
Ironically I suggest the leaver fruit is a Seville Orange. Looks lovely growing on the tree, full of promise. You pick it full of hope. Then you take a bite.
Then you discover that a minimal input of time and effort transforms it into the most delicious, and most distinctively British, foodstuff known to mankind.
Tricky things, analogies.
Terry's Chocolate Orange?
Only joking. I've been Brexi-hoarding Duerr's (which is unaccountably cheaper than the sugary jelly which passes for Robertson's Marmalade) just in case.
I have 2kg of the things themselves sitting in the kitchen waiting to be processed.
I am also quite seriously starting to build up reserves of tins, rice and pasta, starting tomorrow. Leaver bravado about Project Fear is starting to sound a bit hollow.
You are well behind the curve.
But here's the thing. You can't sensibly prepare for rioting in the street social breakdown Brexit unless you stocking up on propane tanks and other survivalist shit.
The best you can prepare for, without being a whackjob, is mildly inconveniencing Brexit, low stock of things you like. Thus our 6 month supply of capers and nice olives.
If avocados are Remain fruit, which fruits are distinctively Leave?
And it seems now as part of their penance for not supporting the Leave death cult, Remainers are obliged to tour northern English blots on the landscape to see third rate paintings rather than visit internationally famous art galleries in world-famous cultural destinations of unsurpassed beauty. Could we be issued with itineraries (tentatively to be named The Fourteen Stations Of The Wrong Cross)?
turnips
obviously
Turnips are a vegetable.
The Leave fruit would be an apple, but an Irish Peach - comes around quickly, and about half of people say it tastes delicious when you pick it, but if you leave it even for a short time it goes off and causes a bad taste, being then useful for nothing and nobody.
Ironically I suggest the leaver fruit is a Seville Orange. Looks lovely growing on the tree, full of promise. You pick it full of hope. Then you take a bite.
Then you discover that a minimal input of time and effort transforms it into the most delicious, and most distinctively British, foodstuff known to mankind.
Tricky things, analogies.
Terry's Chocolate Orange?
Only joking. I've been Brexi-hoarding Duerr's (which is unaccountably cheaper than the sugary jelly which passes for Robertson's Marmalade) just in case.
I have 2kg of the things themselves sitting in the kitchen waiting to be processed.
I am also quite seriously starting to build up reserves of tins, rice and pasta, starting tomorrow. Leaver bravado about Project Fear is starting to sound a bit hollow.
You are well behind the curve.
But here's the thing. You can't sensibly prepare for rioting in the street social breakdown Brexit unless you stocking up on propane tanks and other survivalist shit.
The best you can prepare for, without being a whackjob, is mildly inconveniencing Brexit, low stock of things you like. Thus our 6 month supply of capers and nice olives.
Well as it happens I have a couple of horses, and a shed full of firewood to cook/smoke them over, if things get to that stage. But I do think there is a broad failure to appreciate that we are always only 48 hours away from a food riot, and investing 50 quid in holding slightly larger stocks of things with a virtually infinite shelf life is a no brainer atm.
If avocados are Remain fruit, which fruits are distinctively Leave?
And it seems now as part of their penance for not supporting the Leave death cult, Remainers are obliged to tour northern English blots on the landscape to see third rate paintings rather than visit internationally famous art galleries in world-famous cultural destinations of unsurpassed beauty. Could we be issued with itineraries (tentatively to be named The Fourteen Stations Of The Wrong Cross)?
turnips
obviously
Turnips are a vegetable.
The Leave fruit would be an apple, but an Irish Peach - comes around quickly, and about half of people say it tastes delicious when you pick it, but if you leave it even for a short time it goes off and causes a bad taste, being then useful for nothing and nobody.
Ironically I suggest the leaver fruit is a Seville Orange. Looks lovely growing on the tree, full of promise. You pick it full of hope. Then you take a bite.
Then you discover that a minimal input of time and effort transforms it into the most delicious, and most distinctively British, foodstuff known to mankind.
Tricky things, analogies.
Terry's Chocolate Orange?
Only joking. I've been Brexi-hoarding Duerr's (which is unaccountably cheaper than the sugary jelly which passes for Robertson's Marmalade) just in case.
I have 2kg of the things themselves sitting in the kitchen waiting to be processed.
I am also quite seriously starting to build up reserves of tins, rice and pasta, starting tomorrow. Leaver bravado about Project Fear is starting to sound a bit hollow.
You are well behind the curve.
But here's the thing. You can't sensibly prepare for rioting in the street social breakdown Brexit unless you stocking up on propane tanks and other survivalist shit.
The best you can prepare for, without being a whackjob, is mildly inconveniencing Brexit, low stock of things you like. Thus our 6 month supply of capers and nice olives.
Well as it happens I have a couple of horses, and a shed full of firewood to cook/smoke them over, if things get to that stage. But I do think there is a broad failure to appreciate that we are always only 48 hours away from a food riot, and investing 50 quid in holding slightly larger stocks of things with a virtually infinite shelf life is a no brainer atm.
If you're worried, get a big freezer, and stick meat and veg in it.
Nissan are not scaling back their Sunderland operation.
But they will be utilising the new EU Japan trade agreement to import their X Trail model into the EU from Japan now that prohibitive EU import tariffs on cars are to be reduced.
You keep saying this, but the evidence for any companies shipping low to mid range cars half way and the world (irrespective of tariffs) is minimal
If avocados are Remain fruit, which fruits are distinctively Leave?
And it seems now as part of their penance for not supporting the Leave death cult, Remainers are obliged to tour northern English blots on the landscape to see third rate paintings rather than visit internationally famous art galleries in world-famous cultural destinations of unsurpassed beauty. Could we be issued with itineraries (tentatively to be named The Fourteen Stations Of The Wrong Cross)?
Ironically I suggest the leaver fruit is a Seville Orange. Looks lovely growing on the tree, full of promise. You pick it full of hope. Then you take a bite.
.
Tricky things, analogies.
Terry's Chocolate Orange?
Only joking. I've been Brexi-hoarding Duerr's (which is unaccountably cheaper than the sugary jelly which passes for Robertson's Marmalade) just in case.
I have 2kg of the things themselves sitting in the kitchen waiting to be processed.
I am also quite seriously starting to build up reserves of tins, rice and pasta, starting tomorrow. Leaver bravado about Project Fear is starting to sound a bit hollow.
You are well behind the curve.
But here's the thing. You can't sensibly prepare for rioting in the street social breakdown Brexit unless you stocking up on propane tanks and other survivalist shit.
The best you can prepare for, without being a whackjob, is mildly inconveniencing Brexit, low stock of things you like. Thus our 6 month supply of capers and nice olives.
Well as it happens I have a couple of horses, and a shed full of firewood to cook/smoke them over, if things get to that stage. But I do think there is a broad failure to appreciate that we are always only 48 hours away from a food riot, and investing 50 quid in holding slightly larger stocks of things with a virtually infinite shelf life is a no brainer atm.
If you're worried, get a big freezer, and stick meat and veg in it.
What about Children, the vulnerable and those unable to finance or plan ahead? The UK used to be a civilised society before the Brexit mental illness took hold. I have come to the conclusion that those wanting a hard Brexit are a mixture of the pathologically stupid and selfish arseholes!
If avocados are Remain fruit, which fruits are distinctively Leave?
And it seems now as part of their penance for not supporting the Leave death cult, Remainers are obliged to tour northern English blots on the landscape to see third rate paintings rather than visit internationally famous art galleries in world-famous f The Wrong Cross)?
Ironically I suggest the leaver fruit is a Seville Orange. Looks lovely growing on the tree, full of promise. You pick it full of hope. Then you take a bite.
.
Tricky things, analogies.
Terry's Chocolate Orange?
Only joking. I've been Brexi-hoarding Duerr's (which is unaccountably cheaper than the sugary jelly which passes for Robertson's Marmalade) just in case.
I have 2kg of the things themselves sitting in the kitchen waiting to be processed.
I am also quite seriously starting to build up reserves of tins, rice and pasta, starting tomorrow. Leaver bravado about Project Fear is starting to sound a bit hollow.
You are well behind the curve.
But here's the thing. You can't sensibly prepare for rioting in the street social breakdown Brexit unless you stocking up on propane tanks and other survivalist shit.
The best you can prepare for, without being a whackjob, is mildly inconveniencing Brexit, low stock of things you like. Thus our 6 month supply of capers and nice olives.
Well as it happens I have a couple of horses, and a shed full of firewood to cook/smoke them over, if things get to that stage. But I do think there is a broad failure to appreciate that we are always only 48 hours away from a food riot, and investing 50 quid in holding slightly larger stocks of things with a virtually infinite shelf life is a no brainer atm.
If you're worried, get a big freezer, and stick meat and veg in it.
What about Children, the vulnerable and those unable to finance or plan ahead? The UK used to be a civilised society before the Brexit mental illness took hold. I have come to the conclusion that those wanting a hard Brexit are a mixture of the pathologically stupid and selfish arseholes!
I don't think the UK in 2015 is much different from the UK in 2019.
Spotted in the Sunday Times that the EY Item Club are forecasting growth of 0.7% this year and 0.6% next year if we leave with no deal. That does not sound like much of an economic catastrophe. My apologies if this has been covered on here earlier today.
You missed this bit
EY Item Club, which uses the Treasury’s forecasting model, expects the economy to expand by 0.7% this year and 0.6% next year under a no-deal Brexit — with the potential for a recession in the second half of 2019.
With those numbers it would be a very small recession, 0.5, 0.5, -0.2, -0.1? Even with opportunity cost it's not exactly earth shattering.
I think it would be significantly worse. I'd take a guess at -1.2% for the year overall with a recession continuing into early 2020.
You may or may not be right. However, the Item Club are serious players and I would expect their projections to get some air time in the media. The media seem keen enough to cover the "expert and independent" reports of impending economic disaster in the event of no deal.
Yes, they are. I'm just surprised at the lowish level of negative impact they think no deal will have, I count that at about 4 quarters of low level recession and a 2.5-3% GDP opportunity cost. I'd rate the overall no deal recession at about 2% and the opportunity cost at about 5% with a permanent loss in economic capacity.
No deal would be a disaster for the nation, Parliament must vote through the deal.
What about Children, the vulnerable and those unable to finance or plan ahead? The UK used to be a civilised society before the Brexit mental illness took hold. I have come to the conclusion that those wanting a hard Brexit are a mixture of the pathologically stupid and selfish arseholes!
Children don't keep as well as babies, as a Tory member you should know that already.
The economy, unfortunately, has usually taken second place over the last 60 years to pride, party loyalty or – and this must be the most significant driving force – a trusting sense that no matter how bad things look everything will turn out OK.
I find it hard to believe that a potential loss of a few per cent of GDP over a couple of decades would have been seen as so central to a long delayed argument about sovereignty having been surrendered without apparent popular support 60 years ago. Is it the case that the widespread media interest with the macroeconomy (for its own sake rather than outcomes for individual workers or for the working class) only arose when it became apparent that we were sliding behind many of our European neighbours?
Increasing preoccupation with the future of the economy is a feature of the last 60 years (and seemed to grow even when there was a widespread political consensus about the economy in the period before everything went tits up) and the events of the past few years (here and elsewhere) represent a rejection of the economy having taken first place. Remain put the economy first and look how that went...
If avocados are Remain fruit, which fruits are distinctively Leave?
And it seems now as part of their penance for not supporting the Leave death cult, Remainers are obliged to tour northern English blots on the landscape to see third rate paintings rather than visit internationally famous art galleries in world-famous cultural destinations of unsurpassed beauty. Could we be issued with itineraries (tentatively to be named The Fourteen Stations Of The Wrong Cross)?
Tsk, really, don't turn into another Roger.
Seriously, get yourself a copy of Christopher Lloyd's "In Search of A Masterpiece: An Art Lover's Guide to Great Britain and Ireland".
You will find much to explore outside of London, of great beauty and worth, not third-rate, and when you are bored with places like Preston, go to the trough of Bowland, of such natural beauty that it is reputed that HMQ once said that if she could retire, that is where she would retire to.
What about Children, the vulnerable and those unable to finance or plan ahead? The UK used to be a civilised society before the Brexit mental illness took hold. I have come to the conclusion that those wanting a hard Brexit are a mixture of the pathologically stupid and selfish arseholes!
Children don't keep as well as babies, as a Tory member you should know that already.
From sunny uplands to no deal is survivable ! Liam Fox given up polishing the no deal Brexit turd and basically just telling the public no deal is survivable . Yippee !
Those continuing to cheer for no deal namely the lying spivs in the ERG see that as the perfect route to their low tax , crap services cesspit .
The fact that a rich country is stockpiling and is almost on a war footing shows just how absurd Brexit becomes with each passing day !
If avocados are Remain fruit, which fruits are distinctively Leave?
And it seems now as part of their penance for not supporting the Leave death cult, Remainers are obliged to tour northern English blots on the landscape to see third rate paintings rather than visit internationally famous art galleries in world-famous f The Wrong Cross)?
Ironically I suggest the leaver fruit is a Seville Orange. Looks lovely growing on the tree, full of promise. You pick it full of hope. Then you take a bite.
.
Tricky things, analogies.
Terry's Chocolate Orange?
Only joking. I've been Brexi-hoarding Duerr's (which is unaccountably cheaper than the sugary jelly which passes for Robertson's Marmalade) just in case.
I have 2kg of the things themselves sitting in the kitchen waiting to be processed.
I am also quite seriously starting to build up reserves of tins, rice and pasta, starting tomorrow. Leaver bravado about Project Fear is starting to sound a bit hollow.
If you're worried, get a big freezer, and stick meat and veg in it.
What about Children, the vulnerable and those unable to finance or plan ahead? The UK used to be a civilised society before the Brexit mental illness took hold. I have come to the conclusion that those wanting a hard Brexit are a mixture of the pathologically stupid and selfish arseholes!
I don't think the UK in 2015 is much different from the UK in 2019.
Think about where we are right now.
The UK is on the verge of implementing policies that will disrupt day to day life in peacetime! We are not at war or afflicted by a plague yet politicians are complicit on embarking on a process that will detrimentally affect peoples lives. We are going to suffer at best a fundamental restriction on the economy to grow for years to come and at worst recession or depression. All for what? Honouring a poll that was only advisory and even Boris Johnson admitted before the outcome the UK could use a vote to Leave to extract a better deal or the UK stay on current terms:
Well as it happens I have a couple of horses, and a shed full of firewood to cook/smoke them over, if things get to that stage. But I do think there is a broad failure to appreciate that we are always only 48 hours away from a food riot, and investing 50 quid in holding slightly larger stocks of things with a virtually infinite shelf life is a no brainer atm.
6 months of store cupboard food takes up less than a cubic metre of space. Freezer for the frozen veg and we are sorted.
I will be right pissed off if Brexit is delayed as then we will start going past best befores.
Only joking. I've been Brexi-hoarding Duerr's (which is unaccountably cheaper than the sugary jelly which passes for Robertson's Marmalade) just in case.
I have 2kg of the things themselves sitting in the kitchen waiting to be processed.
I am also quite seriously starting to build up reserves of tins, rice and pasta, starting tomorrow. Leaver bravado about Project Fear is starting to sound a bit hollow.
If you're worried, get a big freezer, and stick meat and veg in it.
What about Children, the vulnerable and those unable to finance or plan ahead? The UK used to be a civilised society before the Brexit mental illness took hold. I have come to the conclusion that those wanting a hard Brexit are a mixture of the pathologically stupid and selfish arseholes!
I don't think the UK in 2015 is much different from the UK in 2019.
Think about where we are right now.
The UK is on the verge of implementing policies that will disrupt day to day life in peacetime! We are not at war or afflicted by a plague yet politicians are complicit on embarking on a process that will detrimentally affect peoples lives. We are going to suffer at best a fundamental restriction on the economy to grow for years to come and at worst recession or depression. All for what? Honouring a poll that was only advisory and even Boris Johnson admitted before the outcome the UK could use a vote to Leave to extract a better deal or the UK stay on current terms:
I agree. It's why I'm so puzzled at the resistance to a second referendum or even revocation. It's as if those in charge are too scared to admit that (a) they may have made a mistake and (b) that they haven't properly prepared the country for a no deal outcome.
If avocados are Remain fruit, which fruits are distinctively Leave?
And it seems now as part of their penance for not supporting the Leave death cult, Remainers are obliged to tour northern English blots on the landscape to see third rateus f The Wrong Cross)?
Ironically I suggest the leaver fruit is a Seville Orange. Looks lovely growing on the tree, full of promise. You pick it full of hope. Then you take a bite.
.
Tricky things, analogies.
Terry's Chocolate Orange?
Only joking. I've been Brexi-hoarding Duerr's (which is unaccountably cheaper than the sugary jelly which passes for Robertson's Marmalade) just in case.
I have 2kg of the things themselves sitting in the kitchen waiting to be processed.
I am also quite seriously starting to build up reserves of tins, rice and pasta, starting tomorrow. Leaver bravado about Project Fear is starting to sound a bit hollow.
If you're worried, get a big freezer, and stick meat and veg in it.
What about Children, the vulnerable and those unable to finance or plan ahead? The UK used to be a civilised society before the Brexit mental illness took hold. I have come to the conclusion that those wanting a hard Brexit are a mixture of the pathologically stupid and selfish arseholes!
I don't think the UK in 2015 is much different from the UK in 2019.
Think about where we are right now.
The UK is on the verge of implementing policies that will disrupt day to day life in peacetime! We are not at war or afflicted by a plague yet politicians are complicit on embarking on a process that will detrimentally affect peoples lives. We are going to suffer at best a fundamental restriction on the economy to grow for years to come and at worst recession or depression. All for what? Honouring a poll that was only advisory and even Boris Johnson admitted before the outcome the UK could use a vote to Leave to extract a better deal or the UK stay on current terms:
Ironically I suggest the leaver fruit is a Seville Orange. Looks lovely growing on the tree, full of promise. You pick it full of hope. Then you take a bite.
.
Tricky things, analogies.
Terry's Chocolate Orange?
Only joking. I've been Brexi-hoarding Duerr's (which is unaccountably cheaper than the sugary jelly which passes for Robertson's Marmalade) just in case.
I have 2kg of the things themselves sitting in the kitchen waiting to be processed.
I am also quite seriously starting to build up reserves of tins, rice and pasta, starting tomorrow. Leaver bravado about Project Fear is starting to sound a bit hollow.
You are well behind the curve.
But here's the thing. You can't sensibly prepare for rioting in the street social breakdown Brexit unless you stocking up on propane tanks and other survivalist shit.
The best you can prepare for, without being a whackjob, is mildly inconveniencing Brexit, low stock of things you like. Thus our 6 month supply of capers and nice olives.
Well as it happens I have a couple of horses, and a shed full of firewood to cook/smoke them over, if things get to that stage. But I do think there is a broad failure to appreciate that we are always only 48 hours away from a food riot, and investing 50 quid in holding slightly larger stocks of things with a virtually infinite shelf life is a no brainer atm.
If you're worried, get a big freezer, and stick meat and veg in it.
What about Children, the vulnerable and those unable to finance or plan ahead? The UK used to be a civilised society before the Brexit mental illness took hold. I have come to the conclusion that those wanting a hard Brexit are a mixture of the pathologically stupid and selfish arseholes!
Otherwise known as the wealthy, retired, and expats.
From sunny uplands to no deal is survivable ! Liam Fox given up polishing the no deal Brexit turd and basically just telling the public no deal is survivable . Yippee !
Those continuing to cheer for no deal namely the lying spivs in the ERG see that as the perfect route to their low tax , crap services cesspit .
The fact that a rich country is stockpiling and is almost on a war footing shows just how absurd Brexit becomes with each passing day !
That's disappointing from Liam. The way I understood things was that he'd be revealing a veritable Aladdin's Cave of new trade deals the moment we left. Bit of a let down to be sure.
I am also quite seriously starting to build up reserves of tins, rice and pasta, starting tomorrow. Leaver bravado about Project Fear is starting to sound a bit hollow.
I'm quite confident bread will still be 10p a loaf at 7.15pm in my local Tesco after we've gone off the cliff.
If you're worried, get a big freezer, and stick meat and veg in it.
Power cuts.
Why should there be power cuts?
Was wondering that.
You can get a small generator for about £3-400 that will run a freezer for maybe 6 hours on one fill of petrol.
That aside, I've not seen any reason why power supplies would fail.
What I cannot fathom is why this is still open for debate. We should know with fair precision and accuracy what will happen in a deal or no deal scenario. It shouldn’t be a matter for debate now.
What about Children, the vulnerable and those unable to finance or plan ahead? The UK used to be a civilised society before the Brexit mental illness took hold. I have come to the conclusion that those wanting a hard Brexit are a mixture of the pathologically stupid and selfish arseholes!
Children don't keep as well as babies, as a Tory member you should know that already.
We didn't eat babies when I was a Tory member!
I lapsed my membership in 2015 as I thought I could spend £25 better than subsidising propaganda that did not serve my interests. Interestingly, when I was a member we put getting the economy right as the principle objective and that would allow us to tackle other issues. I have always found this EU preoccupation and now Brexit strange and paradoxically completely at odds to why I supported the Conservative Party in the past.
The economy functioning at optimal levels allows for strong defence, favourable taxation policies to attract big business to locate here instead of elsewhere in Europe and a compassionate welfare state that looks after those unable to look after themselves i.e. Children, the sick and the elderly.
I do not think Brexit will enable the economy to function optimally as it constrains the fundamental ability of the UK to compete on a level playing field in our nearest market the EU.
If you're worried, get a big freezer, and stick meat and veg in it.
Power cuts.
Why should there be power cuts?
Was wondering that.
You can get a small generator for about £3-400 that will run a freezer for maybe 6 hours on one fill of petrol.
That aside, I've not seen any reason why power supplies would fail.
My experience is that the future is not perfectly predictable, and especially not at times of maximum clusterfuck which is what a no deal brexit will undoubtedly be, irrespective of the merits of the wider remain/ leave debate. I think serious disruption is 10 times more likely than I ever thought we would get from y2k, and it seems to me reasonable to take steps to minimise the disruption. Assault rifles and gold sovereigns no, a few extra tins of stuff yes.
Theresa May will surely start to panic herself at some stage. Unless she is completely insane (always possible), she presumably, at all costs, will not want to leave with the consequences" of no deal" and have that as her own legacy. Revoke or a referendum presumably therefore come back into play if the clock is really ticking down.
Will be kind of ironic if May pursues hard Brexit to "keep the Conservative party together" and, in parallel, also ultimately destroys it electorally. The Tories have ceded major support from business, the young and Londoners (despite Corbyn!); no deal will lose the support of moderates at a minimum; but many more if (likely when) it all goes wrong.
I, for one, will never vote for them again if no deal happens; having voted Conservative at every election for 20 years. It's the arrogance and stubbornness that kills me (also speaking as someone who would take her current deal).
If you're worried, get a big freezer, and stick meat and veg in it.
Power cuts.
Why should there be power cuts?
Was wondering that.
You can get a small generator for about £3-400 that will run a freezer for maybe 6 hours on one fill of petrol.
That aside, I've not seen any reason why power supplies would fail.
What I cannot fathom is why this is still open for debate. We should know with fair precision and accuracy what will happen in a deal or no deal scenario. It shouldn’t be a matter for debate now.
Government doesn't understand business. So they've no idea to what extent they've been able to mitigate the risks (I would actually suspect better than they think).
If you're worried, get a big freezer, and stick meat and veg in it.
Power cuts.
Why should there be power cuts?
Was wondering that.
You can get a small generator for about £3-400 that will run a freezer for maybe 6 hours on one fill of petrol.
That aside, I've not seen any reason why power supplies would fail.
What I cannot fathom is why this is still open for debate. We should know with fair precision and accuracy what will happen in a deal or no deal scenario. It shouldn’t be a matter for debate now.
Andrew Rawnsley addressed this point today:
No one can be entirely sure. One of the issues with a no-deal scenario is the difficulty of making accurate predictions about what will follow the stark termination of decades of trading and legal agreements, and the overnight shredding of many thousands of intricate and vital arrangements. Because there is no precedent for such an event happening to a country as advanced and complex as Britain, everyone is having to guess. Some of the hazards of a no deal might transpire to be less terrible than forecast. Unforeseen perils, for which there has been no preparation at all, would likely materialise. Documents prepared for Operation Yellowhammer, the government’s no-deal contingency planning, coyly refer to “unanticipated impacts”. This is one of the greatest hazards of no-deal Brexit: even the people paid to do so can’t identify all the risks and how menacing they might turn out to be. We are in the Rumsfeldian realm of known knowns, known unknowns and unknown unknowns.
Ironically I suggest the leaver fruit is a Seville Orange. Looks lovely growing on the tree, full of promise. You pick it full of hope. Then you take a bite.
.
Tricky things, analogies.
Terry's Chocolate Orange?
Only joking. I've been Brexi-hoarding Duerr's (which is unaccountably cheaper than the sugary jelly which passes for Robertson's Marmalade) just in case.
I have 2kg of the things themselves sitting in the kitchen waiting to be processed.
I am also quite seriously starting to build up reserves of tins, rice and pasta, starting tomorrow. Leaver bravado about Project Fear is starting to sound a bit hollow.
You are well behind the curve.
But here's the thing. You can't sensibly prepare for rioting in the street social breakdown Brexit unless you stocking up on propane tanks and other survivalist shit.
If you're worried, get a big freezer, and stick meat and veg in it.
What about Children, the vulnerable and those unable to finance or plan ahead? The UK used to be a civilised society before the Brexit mental illness took hold. I have come to the conclusion that those wanting a hard Brexit are a mixture of the pathologically stupid and selfish arseholes!
Otherwise known as the wealthy, retired, and expats.
I have heard of Expats located in the EU who voted for Brexit not realising a No Deal could seriously screw them financially. I am completely unsympathetic to them and the best one I personally spoke to was a man who lived and worked in Tenerife who voted for Brexit because he didn't like the immigrants in the UK! These are people I would class as stupid and completely unable to actuate a degree of self-awareness in that the man in Tenerife was an immigrant living in a foreign country and yet made derogatory remarks about others!
Spotted in the Sunday Times that the EY Item Club are forecasting growth of 0.7% this year and 0.6% next year if we leave with no deal. That does not sound like much of an economic catastrophe. My apologies if this has been covered on here earlier today.
You missed this bit
EY Item Club, which uses the Treasury’s forecasting model, expects the economy to expand by 0.7% this year and 0.6% next year under a no-deal Brexit — with the potential for a recession in the second half of 2019.
With those numbers it would be a very small recession, 0.5, 0.5, -0.2, -0.1? Even with opportunity cost it's not exactly earth shattering.
I think it would be significantly worse. I'd take a guess at -1.2% for the year overall with a recession continuing into early 2020.
You may or may not be right. However, the Item Club are serious players and I would expect their projections to get some air time in the media. The media seem keen enough to cover the "expert and independent" reports of impending economic disaster in the event of no deal.
Yes, they are. I'm just surprised at the lowish level of negative impact they think no deal will have, I count that at about 4 quarters of low level recession and a 2.5-3% GDP opportunity cost. I'd rate the overall no deal recession at about 2% and the opportunity cost at about 5% with a permanent loss in economic capacity.
No deal would be a disaster for the nation, Parliament must vote through the deal.
Indeed. And while such economic figures would be far from unprecedented, they rarely come on the back of 7 years of stagnant real wages.
Arguably irrelevant. The polls aren't reliable. They were all over the place for the 2016 vote and again for the last General Election, and in both cases some of the polls were more-or-less right but most of them were plain wrong. From the experience of the General Election, we also know how what opinion polling suggests to be apparently settled views can change dramatically in the course of a relatively short campaign.
If, hypothetically, there were a straight re-run of the 2016 referendum later this year then we might well see a Remain victory, although I think that blunt instrument surveys about whether the original decision was right or wrong may mask a significant body of opinion of the middling sort: that which backed Remain in 2016 and thinks that quitting the EU isn't a very good idea, but would now vote Leave just because they believe that the original result should be respected - and that asking the same question over and over again until Parliament gets the result that it wants is both tin-eared and very impertinent.
Entirely fair. I would argue that the polls are essentially useless, others would argue that they aren't. However, my central contention - that these kinds of opinion polls are closer to crystal ball gazing that a scientific exercise, and it is therefore unwise to base a solid argument upon them - is sound. It is what the available evidence would suggest.
Stating that people would now vote to stay in the EU because the published results of some YouGov surveys says that they would isn't a statement of fact, and nor is claiming that there's any kind of strong likelihood that they would do so. Taking these polls at face value is merely an instance of confirmation bias. We can speculate on the outcome of referendum mark 2, but nobody (on either side of the argument, or stuck in the middle and willing it to go away) has the faintest idea what would actually happen.
Heartening for the Lib Dems, then. For all we know, they're in the lead and could be on target for a landslide.
What about Children, the vulnerable and those unable to finance or plan ahead? The UK used to be a civilised society before the Brexit mental illness took hold. I have come to the conclusion that those wanting a hard Brexit are a mixture of the pathologically stupid and selfish arseholes!
Children don't keep as well as babies, as a Tory member you should know that already.
We didn't eat babies when I was a Tory member!
I lapsed my membership in 2015 as I thought I could spend £25 better than subsidising propaganda that did not serve my interests. Interestingly, when I was a member we put getting the economy right as the principle objective and that would allow us to tackle other issues. I have always found this EU preoccupation and now Brexit strange and paradoxically completely at odds to why I supported the Conservative Party in the past.
The economy functioning at optimal levels allows for strong defence, favourable taxation policies to attract big business to locate here instead of elsewhere in Europe and a compassionate welfare state that looks after those unable to look after themselves i.e. Children, the sick and the elderly.
I do not think Brexit will enable the economy to function optimally as it constrains the fundamental ability of the UK to compete on a level playing field in our nearest market the EU.
It has always been entirely comprehensible to me that a right wing party would be unhappy with the constraints on self-government that EU membership entails.
But, I don't understand why some MP's wish to so bloody-minded.
If avocados are Remain fruit, which fruits are distinctively Leave?
And it seems now as part of their penance for not supporting the Leave death cult, Remainers are obliged to tour northern English blots on the landscape to see third rate paintings rather than visit internationally famous art galleries in world-famous cultural destinations of unsurpassed beauty. Could we be issued with itineraries (tentatively to be named The Fourteen Stations Of The Wrong Cross)?
turnips
obviously
Turnips are a vegetable.
The Leave fruit would be an apple, but an Irish Peach - comes around quickly, and about half of people say it tastes delicious when you pick it, but if you leave it even for a short time it goes off and causes a bad taste, being then useful for nothing and nobody.
Ironically I suggest the leaver fruit is a Seville Orange. Looks lovely growing on the tree, full of promise. You pick it full of hope. Then you take a bite.
Then you discover that a minimal input of time and effort transforms it into the most delicious, and most distinctively British, foodstuff known to mankind.
Tricky things, analogies.
Terry's Chocolate Orange?
Only joking. I've been Brexi-hoarding Duerr's (which is unaccountably cheaper than the sugary jelly which passes for Robertson's Marmalade) just in case.
I have 2kg of the things themselves w.
You are well behind the curve.
But here's the thing. You can't sensibly prepare for rioting in the street social breakdown Brexit unless you stocking up on propane tanks and other survivalist shit.
The best you can prepare for, without being a whackjob, is mildly inconveniencing Brexit, low stock of things you like. Thus our 6 month supply of capers and nice olives.
Well as it happens I have a couple of horses, and a shed full of firewood to cook/smoke them over, if things get to that stage. But I do think there is a broad failure to appreciate that we are always only 48 hours away from a food riot, and investing 50 quid in holding slightly larger stocks of things with a virtually infinite shelf life is a no brainer atm.
If you're worried, get a big freezer, and stick meat and veg in it.
Jezza is ahead of the curve, as a vegetarian allotment holder with good stock of jam. Its almost as if he was planning it...
Ironically I suggest the leaver fruit is a Seville Orange. Looks lovely growing on the tree, full of promise. You pick it full of hope. Then you take a bite.
.
Tricky things, analogies.
Terry's Chocolate Orange?
Only joking. I've been Brexi-hoarding Duerr's (which is unaccountably cheaper than the sugary jelly which passes for Robertson's Marmalade) just in case.
I have 2kg of the things themselves sitting in the kitchen waiting to be processed.
I am also quite seriously starting to build up reserves of tins, rice and pasta, starting tomorrow. Leaver bravado about Project Fear is starting to sound a bit hollow.
You are well behind the curve.
But here's the thing. You can't sensibly prepare for rioting in the street social breakdown Brexit unless you stocking up on propane tanks and other survivalist shit.
If you're worried, get a big freezer, and stick meat and veg in it.
What about Children, the vulnerable and those unable to finance or plan ahead? The UK used to be a civilised society before the Brexit mental illness took hold. I have come to the conclusion that those wanting a hard Brexit are a mixture of the pathologically stupid and selfish arseholes!
Otherwise known as the wealthy, retired, and expats.
I have heard of Expats located in the EU who voted for Brexit not realising a No Deal could seriously screw them financially. I am completely unsympathetic to them and the best one I personally spoke to was a man who lived and worked in Tenerife who voted for Brexit because he didn't like the immigrants in the UK! These are people I would class as stupid and completely unable to actuate a degree of self-awareness in that the man in Tenerife was an immigrant living in a foreign country and yet made derogatory remarks about others!
If avocados are Remain fruit, which fruits are distinctively Leave?
And it seems now as part of their penance for not supporting the Leave death cult, Remainers are obliged to tour northern English blots on the landscape to see third rate paintings rather than visit internationally famous art galleries in world-famous cultural destinations of unsurpassed beauty. Could we be issued with itineraries (tentatively to be named The Fourteen Stations Of The Wrong Cross)?
turnips
obviously
Turnips are a vegetable.
The Leave fruit would be an apple, but an Irish Peach - comes around quickly, and about half of people say it tastes delicious when you pick it, but if you leave it even for a short time it goes off and causes a bad taste, being then useful for nothing and nobody.
Ironically I suggest the leaver fruit is a Seville Orange. Looks lovely growing on the tree, full of promise. You pick it full of hope. Then you take a bite.
Then you discover that a minimal input of time and effort transforms it into the most delicious, and most distinctively British, foodstuff known to mankind.
Tricky things, analogies.
Terry's Chocolate Orange?
Only joking. I've been Brexi-hoarding Duerr's (which is unaccountably cheaper than the sugary jelly which passes for Robertson's Marmalade) just in case.
I have 2kg of the things themselves sitting in the kitchen waiting to be processed.
I am also quite seriously starting to build up reserves of tins, rice and pasta, starting tomorrow. Leaver bravado about Project Fear is starting to sound a bit hollow.
You are well behind the curve.
But here's the thing. You can't sensibly prepare for rioting in the street social breakdown Brexit unless you stocking up on propane tanks and other survivalist shit.
The best you can prepare for, without being a whackjob, is mildly inconveniencing Brexit, low stock of things you like. Thus our 6 month supply of capers and nice olives.
Bog roll
May I suggest a lightly oiled rope in times of hardship.
Theresa May will surely start to panic herself at some stage. Unless she is completely insane (always possible), she presumably, at all costs, will not want to leave with the consequences" of no deal" and have that as her own legacy. Revoke or a referendum presumably therefore come back into play if the clock is really ticking down.
Will be kind of ironic if May pursues hard Brexit to "keep the Conservative party together" and, in parallel, also ultimately destroys it electorally. The Tories have ceded major support from business, the young and Londoners (despite Corbyn!); no deal will lose the support of moderates at a minimum; but many more if (likely when) it all goes wrong.
I, for one, will never vote for them again if no deal happens; having voted Conservative at every election for 20 years. It's the arrogance and stubbornness that kills me (also speaking as someone who would take her current deal).
I had a meal with extended Family who always vote Conservative. The Tories are indeed trouble if their is a No Deal Brexit.
Boris Johnson had the right idea in the situation we find ourselves now:
"Boris Johnson tonight raised the possibility of Britain still remaining a member of the European Union even if it voted to leave."
Theresa May will surely start to panic herself at some stage. Unless she is completely insane (always possible), she presumably, at all costs, will not want to leave with the consequences" of no deal" and have that as her own legacy. Revoke or a referendum presumably therefore come back into play if the clock is really ticking down.
Will be kind of ironic if May pursues hard Brexit to "keep the Conservative party together" and, in parallel, also ultimately destroys it electorally. The Tories have ceded major support from business, the young and Londoners (despite Corbyn!); no deal will lose the support of moderates at a minimum; but many more if (likely when) it all goes wrong.
I, for one, will never vote for them again if no deal happens; having voted Conservative at every election for 20 years. It's the arrogance and stubbornness that kills me (also speaking as someone who would take her current deal).
I've no idea what May will do.
But if it comes to a choice between revoking Brexit, or No Deal, the latter is less damaging to her party.
12 weeks of protest. ~3000 injured ~ 2000 in prison and ~ 10 dead since the protests started. Draconian legislation on the rights to demonstrate planned.
Macron is not really in a position to lecture the UK ... or even Venezuela.
We're not in much position to lecture anyone though, are we. One of the most annoying features of Brexit is that we've been deprived of the enjoyment of mocking Americans about Trump.
12 weeks of protest. ~3000 injured ~ 2000 in prison and ~ 10 dead since the protests started. Draconian legislation on the rights to demonstrate planned.
Macron is not really in a position to lecture the UK ... or even Venezuela.
We're not in much position to lecture anyone though, are we. One of the most annoying features of Brexit is that we've been deprived of the enjoyment of mocking Americans about Trump.
We can however enjoy a degree of mutual empathy in consolation.
Theresa May will surely start to panic herself at some stage. Unless she is completely insane (always possible), she presumably, at all costs, will not want to leave with the consequences" of no deal" and have that as her own legacy. Revoke or a referendum presumably therefore come back into play if the clock is really ticking down.
Will be kind of ironic if May pursues hard Brexit to "keep the Conservative party together" and, in parallel, also ultimately destroys it electorally. The Tories have ceded major support from business, the young and Londoners (despite Corbyn!); no deal will lose the support of moderates at a minimum; but many more if (likely when) it all goes wrong.
I, for one, will never vote for them again if no deal happens; having voted Conservative at every election for 20 years. It's the arrogance and stubbornness that kills me (also speaking as someone who would take her current deal).
I've no idea what May will do.
But if it comes to a choice between revoking Brexit, or No Deal, the latter is less damaging to her party.
If it comes to a choice between revoking Brexit, or No Deal, it may already be too late to avoid many of the political consequences of No Deal even if the government revokes. It's analagous to Black Wednesday - in reality it had a positive effect, but people saw a government that was willing to sacrifice their personal finances. People don't forget a government playing politics with their lives.
But if it comes to a choice between revoking Brexit, or No Deal, the latter is less damaging to her party.
It really isn't
Revoking has a known cost, with No Deal the Tories are gambling that nothing goes wrong for which they are blamed.
And given that Brexit will be blamed for every factory / company closure / redundancy in the next 5 years that’s a gamble I wouldn’t personally want to be taking
Theresa May will surely start to panic herself at some stage. Unless she is completely insane (always possible), she presumably, at all costs, will not want to leave with the consequences" of no deal" and have that as her own legacy. Revoke or a referendum presumably therefore come back into play if the clock is really ticking down.
Will be kind of ironic if May pursues hard Brexit to "keep the Conservative party together" and, in parallel, also ultimately destroys it electorally. The Tories have ceded major support from business, the young and Londoners (despite Corbyn!); no deal will lose the support of moderates at a minimum; but many more if (likely when) it all goes wrong.
I, for one, will never vote for them again if no deal happens; having voted Conservative at every election for 20 years. It's the arrogance and stubbornness that kills me (also speaking as someone who would take her current deal).
I've no idea what May will do.
But if it comes to a choice between revoking Brexit, or No Deal, the latter is less damaging to her party.
The latter will be much more damaging for her (and she won't even be around to own the consequences, by her own admission).
12 weeks of protest. ~3000 injured ~ 2000 in prison and ~ 10 dead since the protests started. Draconian legislation on the rights to demonstrate planned.
Macron is not really in a position to lecture the UK ... or even Venezuela.
We're not in much position to lecture anyone though, are we. One of the most annoying features of Brexit is that we've been deprived of the enjoyment of mocking Americans about Trump.
But are we lecturing anyone? I hope not.
Macron has the Blairite superiority complex, which enables him to offer advice to all and sundry de haut en bas.
May, whatever her faults, doesn’t have a superiority complex. She is very ordinary, and she knows it.
Most Americans I know are so ashamed of Trump I really would not have the heart to mock them.
Errrhhh...you know who Byline are right? Cavaet Emptor...They see a conspiracy theory in everything and previously claims on Russian bots haven't gone well...
‘I’m not a Russian troll - I’m a security guard from Glasgow’
If you're worried, get a big freezer, and stick meat and veg in it.
Power cuts.
Why should there be power cuts?
Was wondering that.
You can get a small generator for about £3-400 that will run a freezer for maybe 6 hours on one fill of petrol.
You're going to need a helluva lot of petrol on that basis.
Power cuts seem unlikely and in any case if they are required the government would surely adopt the usual Tory policy of having a rota of pre-planned 3 or 4 hour cuts as in 1972 and 1974.
Of course the impact would be much greater today than in the early 70s, given how much more dependent we have become on electricity.
I see the yellow jackets in France are burning EU flags tonight and calling for Frexit
Anyone offering bets yet on which palace will be evacuated first? Buckingham or the Elysee?
Whatever many of the economic predictions about no deal, it is difficult to see that civil unrest will reach anything likely the levels that currently seems to be a permanent state of affairs in France.
Errrhhh...you know who Byline are right? Cavaet Emptor...
Who are they ?
They are a bit like Alex Jones of the Left. Conspiracy story in everything.
Including their greatest hits, fake stories on John Wittingdale, previously been done by Impress for defaming a journalist and made a claim about a Russian bot because they didn't speak very good English, who turned out to be some Scottish security guard.
Theresa May will surely start to panic herself at some stage. Unless she is completely insane (always possible), she presumably, at all costs, will not want to leave with the consequences" of no deal" and have that as her own legacy. Revoke or a referendum presumably therefore come back into play if the clock is really ticking down.
Will be kind of ironic if May pursues hard Brexit to "keep the Conservative party together" and, in parallel, also ultimately destroys it electorally. The Tories have ceded major support from business, the young and Londoners (despite Corbyn!); no deal will lose the support of moderates at a minimum; but many more if (likely when) it all goes wrong.
I, for one, will never vote for them again if no deal happens; having voted Conservative at every election for 20 years. It's the arrogance and stubbornness that kills me (also speaking as someone who would take her current deal).
I've no idea what May will do.
But if it comes to a choice between revoking Brexit, or No Deal, the latter is less damaging to her party.
Are you sure, Sean? It's pretty nasty either way, but I would have thought the former likely to be more temporary. Not sure though, and certainly respect your opinion on this.
Comments
EY Item Club, which uses the Treasury’s forecasting model, expects the economy to expand by 0.7% this year and 0.6% next year under a no-deal Brexit — with the potential for a recession in the second half of 2019.
Edit - although I think one problem was Cameron was in too much of a Russia to hold it.
I think it would be significantly worse. I'd take a guess at -1.2% for the year overall with a recession continuing into early 2020.
Edit: you edited your post!
Sorry about the article. It was originally intended to cover the amendments and was submitted midweek to be published today. But the unexpected kerfuffle with the extension forced a rewrite and what was a simple article with two tables became a complex one with (at one point) five tables, which was reduced to three. If time had permitted I would have translated the odds as probabilities and depicted the results as three or four graphs, but it did not and the final version was submitted at approx 3am my time. Hopefully the next one will be bettet
But here's the thing. You can't sensibly prepare for rioting in the street social breakdown Brexit unless you stocking up on propane tanks and other survivalist shit.
The best you can prepare for, without being a whackjob, is mildly inconveniencing Brexit, low stock of things you like. Thus our 6 month supply of capers and nice olives.
(This joke only works if you realise the Russian pronounciation of "Soyuz" is say-ooshz, not the Western pronounciation of soy-uzz)
Goodnight.
I remember once chatting to a minister at a Conservative conference, when so drunk, I had no memory of what I had said. But, the following day, was complimented for the excellent points I had made (people were not being sarcastic ).
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47108445
No deal would be a disaster for the nation, Parliament must vote through the deal.
Increasing preoccupation with the future of the economy is a feature of the last 60 years (and seemed to grow even when there was a widespread political consensus about the economy in the period before everything went tits up) and the events of the past few years (here and elsewhere) represent a rejection of the economy having taken first place. Remain put the economy first and look how that went...
Seriously, get yourself a copy of Christopher Lloyd's "In Search of A Masterpiece: An Art Lover's Guide to Great Britain and Ireland".
You will find much to explore outside of London, of great beauty and worth, not third-rate, and when you are bored with places like Preston, go to the trough of Bowland, of such natural beauty that it is reputed that HMQ once said that if she could retire, that is where she would retire to.
Those continuing to cheer for no deal namely the lying spivs in the ERG see that as the perfect route to their low tax , crap services cesspit .
The fact that a rich country is stockpiling and is almost on a war footing shows just how absurd Brexit becomes with each passing day !
But its fuck all use if electricity supplies are disrupted.
https://twitter.com/BrianLister13/status/1092011605825634304
I will be right pissed off if Brexit is delayed as then we will start going past best befores.
You can get a small generator for about £3-400 that will run a freezer for maybe 6 hours on one fill of petrol.
I lapsed my membership in 2015 as I thought I could spend £25 better than subsidising propaganda that did not serve my interests. Interestingly, when I was a member we put getting the economy right as the principle objective and that would allow us to tackle other issues. I have always found this EU preoccupation and now Brexit strange and paradoxically completely at odds to why I supported the Conservative Party in the past.
The economy functioning at optimal levels allows for strong defence, favourable taxation policies to attract big business to locate here instead of elsewhere in Europe and a compassionate welfare state that looks after those unable to look after themselves i.e. Children, the sick and the elderly.
I do not think Brexit will enable the economy to function optimally as it constrains the fundamental ability of the UK to compete on a level playing field in our nearest market the EU.
Will be kind of ironic if May pursues hard Brexit to "keep the Conservative party together" and, in parallel, also ultimately destroys it electorally. The Tories have ceded major support from business, the young and Londoners (despite Corbyn!); no deal will lose the support of moderates at a minimum; but many more if (likely when) it all goes wrong.
I, for one, will never vote for them again if no deal happens; having voted Conservative at every election for 20 years. It's the arrogance and stubbornness that kills me (also speaking as someone who would take her current deal).
No one can be entirely sure. One of the issues with a no-deal scenario is the difficulty of making accurate predictions about what will follow the stark termination of decades of trading and legal agreements, and the overnight shredding of many thousands of intricate and vital arrangements. Because there is no precedent for such an event happening to a country as advanced and complex as Britain, everyone is having to guess. Some of the hazards of a no deal might transpire to be less terrible than forecast. Unforeseen perils, for which there has been no preparation at all, would likely materialise. Documents prepared for Operation Yellowhammer, the government’s no-deal contingency planning, coyly refer to “unanticipated impacts”. This is one of the greatest hazards of no-deal Brexit: even the people paid to do so can’t identify all the risks and how menacing they might turn out to be. We are in the Rumsfeldian realm of known knowns, known unknowns and unknown unknowns.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/03/tories-should-heed-oliver-letwin-wont-be-forgiven-no-deal-brexit
Which seems fair given the DUP intransigence and a lot of the DUP supporters live in the dark ages.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/trading-electricity-if-theres-no-brexit-deal/trading-electricity-if-theres-no-brexit-deal
For all we know, they're in the lead and could be on target for a landslide.
But, I don't understand why some MP's wish to so bloody-minded.
Boris Johnson had the right idea in the situation we find ourselves now:
"Boris Johnson tonight raised the possibility of Britain still remaining a member of the European Union even if it voted to leave."
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/social-affairs/politics/news/68437/boris-johnson-vote-leave-get-better-eu-deal-britain
But if it comes to a choice between revoking Brexit, or No Deal, the latter is less damaging to her party.
I was not aware we were about to be blockaded
It really is.
YMMV
The "f*** business" comment will also continue to be quoted back again and again if no deal does have the expected repercussions.
And given that Brexit will be blamed for every factory / company closure / redundancy in the next 5 years that’s a gamble I wouldn’t personally want to be taking
Macron has the Blairite superiority complex, which enables him to offer advice to all and sundry de haut en bas.
May, whatever her faults, doesn’t have a superiority complex. She is very ordinary, and she knows it.
Most Americans I know are so ashamed of Trump I really would not have the heart to mock them.
‘I’m not a Russian troll - I’m a security guard from Glasgow’
https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/i-m-not-a-russian-troll-i-m-a-security-guard-from-glasgow-1-4614102
Power cuts seem unlikely and in any case if they are required the government would surely adopt the usual Tory policy of having a rota of pre-planned 3 or 4 hour cuts as in 1972 and 1974.
Of course the impact would be much greater today than in the early 70s, given how much more dependent we have become on electricity.
Whatever many of the economic predictions about no deal, it is difficult to see that civil unrest will reach anything likely the levels that currently seems to be a permanent state of affairs in France.
Including their greatest hits, fake stories on John Wittingdale, previously been done by Impress for defaming a journalist and made a claim about a Russian bot because they didn't speak very good English, who turned out to be some Scottish security guard.
They make the Canary look legit.
Clearly extremists of the first water.