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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The January 29th 2019 amendments and the extension rumours
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The January 29th 2019 amendments and the extension rumours
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Still at least its reassuring to know the Queen will be relocated to a safe leave voting area if the remainers in London start kicking off and march on Buckingham palace.
Or alternatively we could just let the Duke of Edinburgh clear the mob with his land rover. Let them eat avocado toast - before Waitrose run out of the stuff on 30 March in their London stores due to panic buying.
That they are currently still going to keep Qashqai manufacturing here is a win, but even that depends on what view the government takes on emissions and how much help will be available for EVs and battery manufacturing. Ideally the government bets big on EVs and introduces huge tax breaks for investment in EV manufacturing under the guise of environmental protection.
'A no-deal Brexit is just another cataclysmic event among many in Britain’s recent history. That’s why there is a good chance it’s going to happen.
The economy, unfortunately, has usually taken second place over the last 60 years to pride, party loyalty or – and this must be the most significant driving force – a trusting sense that no matter how bad things look everything will turn out OK.
It’s a phlegmatic approach to life that means Britain could just as easily fudge the outcome of Brexit, condemning the nation to years of hopeless anger from those who would rather our politicians had plotted a course based on rigorous research and open discussion.
Think of the much-delayed devaluation of the pound in 1967 and the decision, almost overnight, to join the European Economic Community (EEC). Next came the humiliating capitulation in 1976 to the demands of the International Monetary Fund following a long and desperate search for vital loans; the closure within a few of years of the UK’s coal and steel industries, putting more than one million people out of work; 1986’s Big Bang deregulation of the City; and the humiliating crash out of the European exchange rate mechanism (ERM) in 1992.
What planning was made for these epoch-defining moments and the effects they might have on the country and its people? Very little.
There is an obvious thread running through this list of events, and that is the mess, at every turn, the Tory party has gifted the nation from its time in office.
The ’67 devaluation followed reckless Tory mismanagement in the early part of the decade. Likewise, Britain was broke in 1976 following a Tory spending spree. Ted Heath, who oversaw that spending spree, also thought little about the consequences for poorer communities of joining the EEC, just as Margaret Thatcher lazily left the fate of steelworkers and coalminers to the vagaries of the job market. Deregulation of the City sucked more money into London at the expense of the regions. Lastly, the Tories delayed and delayed a decision on ERM membership until crashing out was inevitable.
Across the Channel, each of these developments was handled very differently. Which is not to say that France and Germany have all the answers. It’s just that the divergence with our neighbours over the need to plan is stark.'
Free markets are capitalism.
Which model is better for indiviual freedom?
Which model is better for the consumer?
Have a small population and discover vast quantities of oil and gas offshore.
Big business is beginning to show its power in any negotiation with the Government. Nissan has no loyalty to the UK but will wait to see what it is offered. The Government has to accept it is open season for the rest of the EC to try and switch investment away from the UK and be prepared to give away large sums. I predicted this some time ago and see no reason to change my view.
The people who will lose most are pensioners which is only fair as it is their Brexit. This will come mostly through the exchange rate and house prices but further austerity is also on the cards.
(Remembering of course that the aftermath of Thatcher winning that miners strike was that she oversaw fewer pit closures than Labour had undertaken.)
In this position, I'm in no doubt that Maggie would have started No Deal planning from Day One, well before the Artcile 50 notice was served.
https://www.britishquinoa.co.uk/
"Britain joined at a rate of 2.95 Deutsche Marks to the Pound, and within the broader 6% range of the ERM, rather than the 2.5% range, to give added flexibility. The decision was supported by the Labour Party, which said it had taken too long to reach; the Liberal Democrats said the same, and the CBI and the TUC" https://www.gresham.ac.uk/lecture/transcript/print/leaving-the-erm-1992/
FPT: On the young women at his feet, you will have to ask @SeanT. Something to do with wealth (food in wartime?), perhaps?
It appears that Yasmin Alibhai-Brown DID fall for it. As far as I can tell the account is genuine. 27k followers
https://twitter.com/y_alibhai/
Referenced in other media, eg:
https://www.gloucestershirelive.co.uk/news/gloucester-news/nazi-uniforms-gloucester-allo-allo-1955653
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/michael-fabricant-apologises-after-saying-he-might-punch-female-columnist-in-the-throat-9551341.html
The spoof is here:
https://twitter.com/brownalibhai?lang=en
No it wasn't; it had been discussed for ages, and but for De Gaulle's persistent 'Non' we'd have been in years earlier.
I seem to remember, as a young delegate to a pharmaceutical conference in 1968 or so, saying at the rostrum, to applause from the floor and commendation from the platform, that De Gaulle would not last for ever, and that pharmacy would do a lot better when we joined the Common Market.
I was right, of course about the first, but not about the second.
The section we had agreed to give away included huge hydrocarbon deposits in the Statfjord, Gullfacks, Sleipner and Frigg fields. If we had held the line in those talks, Norway's oil fund of around a trillion dollars would have been significantly the UK's.
That is the sort of demeaning low paid work British people just aren't prepared to do anymore!
Possibly the best return for picking up the tab in history!
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/dec/09/northerners-voting-brexit-north-south
By the mid-60s, BP had a pretty shrewd idea of where the big North Sea deposits were going to be found.
This is because of the free trade deal between the EU and Japan which means Japanese car exports to the EU will no longer face a prohibitive tariff.
Simply car companies don't tend to ship low or mid range cars half way around the world, because of time and cost. The US has only 2.5% tarrifs on passenger cars. But all the low end Mercedes, BMW and VWs are made in the US.
For the life of me, I can't remember the name of it.
If the government has even half a brain cell then they will push for investment into EVs and battery manufacturing for hybrids and EVs. We'll see how JLR invest in it, but if it goes well the UK could become a viable EV manufacturing nation as quite a lot of supply chain will be domestic.
The North-sneering, London-based art critic was reviewing the National Gallery exhibition “Beyond Caravaggio” which ran from Oct 2016 to Jan 2017.
The paintings in question are Nicolas Régnier’s ‘Saint Sebastian tended by the Holy Irene and her Servant’ in the collection of the Ferens Art Gallery, Hull Museums and Georges de la Tour’s ‘Dice Players’ from Preston Park Museum & Grounds in Stockton-on-Tees. They are baroque followers of Caravaggio.
Diesel demand, given petrol engines for the model are made in Japan.
Weak European economies
Falling demand for Ice vehicles worldwide relative to hybrid and electric
The risk of No Deal Brexit
The departure of Carlos Ghosn
The EU-Japan Fta
' High marks to the National Gallery for finding so many Caravaggesque examples scattered about Britain’s lesser-known collections. Their presence adds weight to the show’s argument, and a few of them are real finds. From the Ferens Art Gallery, in Hull, comes a beautiful St Sebastian, slumped on a scarlet cloth with St Irene tenderly pulling out his arrows, painted by Nicolas Regnier, an artist we need to hear more about. '
http://www.waldemar.tv/2016/11/waldemar-januszczak-on-art-caravaggio-saw-things-in-a-new-light/
With the actual Hull painting shown here:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-excess-and-vulgarity-is-what-the-modern-world-likes-about-caravaggio-m3n0x5stn
and the Preston painting:
https://www.apollo-magazine.com/frieze-week-highlights-stepping-out-of-caravaggios-shadow/
Boot is firmly on the other foot now - every bad bit of economic news over the next 5 years will be because of Brexit. You reap what you sow.
Firms never closed down, scaled back operations, decided not to expand, or made job losses before 23 June 2016 did they?!
Its going to be the fallguy for all management failures and hard nosed commercial decisions for the next few months.
As YbarrdCwsc points out it's a seriously shoddy piece of journalism. I'd suggest you delete it from your file.
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Between 2014 and 2016 alone, over 3000 people were dragged before the court for being homeless, under the Vagrancy Act.
That is shameful. Britain is better than this. Demand that the cruel and outdated Vagrancy Act is repealed
Brexit's turn now.
And it seems now as part of their penance for not supporting the Leave death cult, Remainers are obliged to tour northern English blots on the landscape to see third rate paintings rather than visit internationally famous art galleries in world-famous cultural destinations of unsurpassed beauty. Could we be issued with itineraries (tentatively to be named The Fourteen Stations Of The Wrong Cross)?
Job Losses attract more publicity than job gains, but the latter outweigh the former.
Fred Hohler’s pioneering obsession with the Public Art Catalogue really opened my eyes to this. In fact it’s the entire purpose of the Winter Exhibition Programme we host every year at Two Temple Place
For example:
Blackburn has a better collection of Roman Coins than the British Museum
Macclesfield has the second best collection of Egyptian antiquities in the country
Sheffield is the place to go for Ruskin fans; for the Newland School you should head to Truro and the RCM
Closer to London you could go to Walthamstow for William Morris or Sussex for Bloomsberry, Lee Miller and Man Ray
obviously
I can also recall how astonished I was to find an outstanding Dali museum in St Petersburg, Florida. Well worth a visit if you are ever in the Sunshine State.
Absent this combination of circumstances, any bad news stories will be blamed on Brexit by convinced Remainers, ascribed to other factors by convinced Leavers, and largely ignored by the unaffected bulk of the population.
The reputation of pro-EU politicians, business lobby groups, the Bank of England and all the rest of them for economic forecasting was shredded firstly by the inability of almost any of them to see the Great Recession coming, and then by the failure of nearly all the horrors predicted to come to pass in the immediate aftermath of the Leave vote to happen. As we all know, about the only thing they got right was the fall in the value of Sterling - and even in that case the IMF had been issuing advice well before the referendum to the effect that the Pound was overvalued. The Brexit vote can therefore all-too-easily be written off as the trigger for the correction to take place, but not the underlying cause.
It's going to take an awful lot to convince Leave-leaning voters - who heard all of this doom and gloom three years ago, ignored it and will feel that they were vindicated by subsequent events - to blame anything that may or may not go wrong on the act of leaving the EU.
https://goo.gl/images/59oi6q
She writes movingly about how she shared her house with an asylum seeker
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jan/09/my-syrian-refugee-lodger-helen-pidd
I’ve a lot of time for Helen Pidd (though she is no art historian).
She didn’t just talk about it, you see.
Hasn't been jacked back up recently, has it?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Francisco_de_Zurbarán
OTOH, estimates for GDP, employment , public borrowing , wages, house prices were......not so good.
If anything could lure me north of Watford.....
You’d be surprised, though, how many people who should have been aware of these pieces aren’t
It is also worth remembering how much of the stuff ended up in London in the first place. Why exactly is the Mold cape in London, as opposed to Mold or the National Museum of Wales, Cardiff?
Tristram Hunt, when he took over in the V&A, said he would be happy to help locate historic furniture and artefacts of Gwydir Castle in Llanrwst, that had been sold or lost.
He was not quite so helpful when it was pointed out to him that some of the artefacts from Gwydir Castle were located in the storage vaults of the, ... err, V&A.
Where -- the helpfulness of Tristram notwithstanding -- they have remained.
You may or may not be right but, unless or until there's another vote on the EU, there's no reliable means to test this hypothesis. If the polls had any value in this respect then they'd have called the result of the first one right. FWIW the ratings of the main agencies do seem somewhat eccentric. Ranking Germany above the UK is not a decision likely to look sensible if the Euro finally collapses (a seeming inevitability absent political union, which no-one of any real influence save possibly for the embattled Macron appears willing to contemplate.) Ranking both Germany and the UK above Japan is plain bonkers.
The Leave fruit would be an apple, but an Irish Peach - comes around quickly, and about half of people say it tastes delicious when you pick it, but if you leave it even for a short time it goes off and causes a bad taste, being then useful for nothing and nobody.
https://www.orangepippintrees.co.uk/apple-trees/irish-peach
Edit - and peas are of course a vegetable as well. Further edit - although I see there is a dispute about that.