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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A shock poll from Opinium sees the Tories move to a 7% lead
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A shock poll from Opinium sees the Tories move to a 7% lead
CON now 7% ahead of LAB with Opinium for the ObserverLAB 34 (-6) CON 41 (+4)LD 8 (+1) UKIP 7 (-)
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No10 prepares D-Day Election: Tories pencil in June 6 for polling day after delaying Article 50 and securing a Brexit deal in April.... as they triple spending on social media ads hoping they will go viral
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6661607/Tories-pencil-June-6-polling-day-delaying-Article-50-securing-Brexit-deal-April.html
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/news/2019/02/02/0302-MATT-GALLERY-WEB-P1_trans_NvBQzQNjv4BqqVzuuqpFlyLIwiB6NTmJwfSVWeZ_vEN7c6bHu2jJnT8.png
The conservatives are split but the party is eurosceptic and maybe no more than 10 mps would resign the whip, be deselected and the party would move on
Nothing to do with the massive drop in investment in the UK automotive industry since the Brexit vote.
https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/industry/uk-car-manufacturing-falls-9-investment-plummets
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/01/20/desperate-times-a-new-way-out-of-the-brexit-impasse/
Saying it's "nothing to do with Brexit" is stupid, but so is attributing Brexit as the cause for everything ill.
Those hoping for a repeat of the 2017GE campaign would be disappointed. People know Corbyn now. He's moved the Overton window somewhat, so would no longer present anything surprising.
Labour could build on the political space he has opened up with a more imaginative and less internally confrontational leader. But I think they're stuck with him. The sadness from my point of view is that, after making left-wing politics part of the political conversation again for the first time in decades, he now looks set to discredit it again for many more.
It is because it is a diesel SKU, and diesels are about as popular as Donald Trump at the Oscars. And if they were to try and try to switch it to a petrol model just for the EU market, it would be expensive reconfiguration and even then the engine would have to be shipped from Japan. It just isn't a runner to do so. Plus, for those secret Trump fans, the X-Trail is currently made in Japan and now can be imported tariff free.
The big thing to watch is the Qashqai. It is the number one seller across europe in its category and Nissan said they would make the next generation at Sunderland. If they alter those plans, that would 100% due to Brexit.
I've never seen the like...
Is the problem not more that Corbyn has been shown to be crap?
Saw Vice tonight. A bit patchy I thought. Steve Carrel was brilliant as Rumsfeld. But there were some remarkably silly scenes, the highlight of which was probably a scene where Cheney and his wife suddenly started speaking to each other in blank verse.
Don’t really think that Bale’s performance was Oscar material although the make up was incredible.
She was about effective as the England batsman.
(1) It is incredibly doubtful she'll be able to pass her deal, even if she wins a majority in a June election. Not without mass Tory deselections that would preclude the possibility of a victory.
(2) Her advisers would do better to advise her to appoint 15-25 new Conservative peers to strengthen her legislative supremacy. It also hedges against the nightmare electoral scenarios in 2022 by delaying the worst bills for two years. The noble ambition of a smaller upper chamber is less pressing given the circumstances.
Gambling it all just after she's got her head above the water is delusional.
Add in a major technological change with hybrids and it is an uncertain time which is likely to last a while. At the cinema tonight there was an abundance of car adverts, most highlighting hybrids against conventional cars.
It would be one thing - and perhaps just about understandable - to remain leader for a snap election forced upon her by Parliament. It would be quite another to decide to call an election at a time of her own choosing and then stay on in spite of her promises to stand down before the next election. Particularly if the big issue of Brexit ahs been put to bed by us leaving on or shortly after March 29th.
It s kind of immaterial to me because I could not and would not vote for her anyway. But the backtracking will not, I suspect, play well with a lot of MPs and activists.
What would she say on the campaign trail, “I’ll stand down soon, so you won’t actually know who you’re voting for as PM?”
I can only presume this is fake news.
It has been denied accordingly. I just hope that's the end of it so I can stop waking up in a cold sweat à la Dominic Grieve.
My MP reckons you need a majority of forty to govern effectively. Which we don’t currently have.
Second-rate staff have been on the phone, outraged. It was a plan by third-rate staff, they said.
But, assuming it isn't, it could either be rallying round the flag as Brexit comes closer, or because floating voters have realised that cowardice, indecision and obfuscation on the most important issue of the day is not exactly a Prime Ministerial attribute.
My money would be on the latter.
They could use the Point class Ro-Ro vessels operated by Foreland on behalf of the MoD but that's not the same as using the RN. Also in 2011 the tories (showing their entirely characteristic loathing of the armed forces) paid off 50% of the Point class fleet.
This was caused by this.
Or by that.
But the truth is that business decisions will have multiple inputs.
So, falling diesel sales will have played a role. As will the weakness of European economies.
I suspect that the free trade agreement was not a big an impact as people suggest. Why? Because people don't like to wait 4-5 months for the import of mid-range cars. They might wait for their perfect 911 to be delivered. But non-specialist cars tend not to be transported half way around the world.
If you look at the European cars that are imported to the US, it's all high end stuff. The mid and low end stuff is made in the US. Simply spending $1,000 moving a $20,000 car from Japan to the UK isn't economical.
I also suspect Carlos Ghosn moving on from Nissan might have been a part of the issue. He was much more European focused than his successors are likely to be.
Brexit - and specifically the risk of no deal Brexit - will have played a part. It might have been 10% of the decision. It might have been 30%. But to pretend it played no role is, frankly, naive. But it probably wasn't as important as Dieselgate or the weakness of European economies.
Why? Because in 2007-2008, traded car loans (yes, it's a sector) performed much better than mortgages. Conventional wisdom had been that if you lost your job, the mortgage would have been the last thing you stopped paying. The reality was that it was car loans that were the last to go. Stop paying your mortgage, and you stay in your house for months or years. Stop paying your car loan, and they take your car, and you can't even get to a job interview.
And this has had funny follow on effects. Car leasing companies pay half as much to borrow now as in 2006. And car residuals are better (because of cheap loans to buy cars).
The result is that the amount of car debt in the US - once you include finance leases - is almost THREE TIMES the level of 2006.
It's a horrendous bubble waiting to burst.
Another factor in Europe this year is going to be launch of the Tesla Model 3, which are about to start making their way over the Pond in large numbers as their factory gets up to speed.
The top end of the U.K. car industry is absolutely booming, despite slowdowns in China and Europe, lower oil prices in the Middle East and political uncertainty in the USA. Rolls Royce, Bentley, Aston Martin and McLaren all have long waiting lists for recent new models, at unit prices in the £150k-£350k range - and all are hiring skilled and apprentice workers.
Also an interesting point about car finance in the US. I was always surprised in the Middle East that car loans are cheaper than house loans, despite the rapid depreciation of the secured asset.