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  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 44,329

    Drutt said:

    kle4 said:

    I can't make any sense of those poll results and the reluctance of politicians to kill off the Brexit madness. Why are we doing this to ourselves?

    MPs clearly want to stop it. They have the power to stop it. But not enough for enough of them to go against the party line or to risk ending their careers.
    I still don't really understand why Labour doesn't simply abstain on the MV, allow the WA deal through, see the DUP turn puce and end the C&S agreement, and back themselves to force an election, win it and put through whatever long-term future arrangement with the EU they see fit.
    +1 I find it staggering that Labour's leadership haven't cottoned on to this yet.
    They get Tories ripping themselves apart and taking the fall for Brexit, and they get their election in short order.

    Been saying this for months.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,512

    _Anazina_ said:

    Scott_P said:
    Good grief. There is no arguing with those numbers. Polls are to be taken with a large pinch of salt. But those are very large gaps.
    But it is 45 stay - 40 leave
    As you yourself prove, you cannot transfer the entirety of, say, leave with a deal, to a general commitment for leaving under any circumstances.
  • dotsdots Posts: 615
    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1089997071669751818
    That's Cooper' amendment's passed then, isn't it? Making May's plans immaterial?

    Not necessarily - there's quite a few Labour MPs (Caroline Flint being one) who have said they won't be voting for it, and all the Tory MPs who spent weeks talking about how they were committed to avoiding No Deal are (predictably) bottling out of actually following through when it matters.

    But it will be amusing to see the mental gymnastics Southam Observer goes through to blame Corbyn for No Deal when he's the one who voted to prevent it happening, but the House of Commons as a whole said otherwise.
    Also, to add to this: even if Cooper's amendment passes, May's efforts wouldn't be immaterial, would they? I thought it was that A50 gets extended if there's no deal ratified by the end of Feb - so, if by some miracle May does manage to magically renegotiate her deal and MPs vote it through, then Cooper's amendment becomes obsolete.
    problems with Coopers amendment.

    1) There is some truth the cliff edge facing both parties and the ticking clock could lead to a climb down, and a better deal, but if commons supports Coopers amendment Britain stops waving it’s guns, instantly our negotiating strength is neutralised. It doesn’t stop no deal brexit, just kicks it down the road, it’s not a solution taking us closer to resolution, it’s can kicking leaving us nowhere.

    2) Coopers amendment cannot deliver on its promise. It’s not in the power of UK either government or parliament to create an extension, merely ask the EU to grant one with a case we are actually doing something constructive with the time. Which is What?

    3). If a lot of Labour MPs see it like this and rebel a whip (if indeed Labour leadership are whipping support for it, hard to believe they are that dumb to invite the two strong attacks 1 & 2 above from government party against them) then it dangerously fragments a previously solid PLP weakening the party whip.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,929

    viewcode said:

    nielh said:

    Sean_F said:

    Meds and food should be prioritised for Remainers.

    Leavers can go whistle, this shall be their Brexit dividend

    You need not worry. The brainlessness of the ERG makes it very likely that Brexit won't happen
    In my view, we are heading to no deal.
    I'm waiting for the outcome of tomorrow's amendments before I decide.
    I make it a 70/80 per cent chance we leave with No Deal.
    It's a tricky one. If it passes then the punters will assume No Deal is toast and the odds will get bigger. But an extension has to be granted, not just requested, and would the EU grant one? So should I still bet on No Deal even if the Cooper amendment passes?

    Aaargh. Betting. Not easy.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,893
    _Anazina_ said:

    Scott_P said:
    Good grief. There is no arguing with those numbers. Polls are to be taken with a large pinch of salt. But those are very large gaps.
    40% plays against 45% with 5% saying they would vote and 9% in the DK? Are you new to polling or just a cretin?
  • kle4 said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Scott_P said:
    Good grief. There is no arguing with those numbers. Polls are to be taken with a large pinch of salt. But those are very large gaps.
    But it is 45 stay - 40 leave
    As you yourself prove, you cannot transfer the entirety of, say, leave with a deal, to a general commitment for leaving under any circumstances.
    Yes but there is only 12% for the deal
  • Jonathan said:

    Cameron really screwed up.

    Amazing now to think of the years & years of the PB Tories defending every particle of his being (I seem to recall at one point Plato (RIP) said she'd marry him in a flash). Fair play to those still loyal.
    I'm still loyal.

    When I was told he was about to resign, it still feels like a kick in the gonads.
    Me too. I always had a personal and political empathy with Cameron, and still do.

    I was just very disappointed he didn’t follow through on his European policy.
    Me too. I always thought he was a pretty decent PM, but he got Europe wrong, and that was the big one. Tonite's excellent programme confirmed to me that the problem was always an internal Tory Party one, and that the Leadership's mistake was to try and appease the Eurosceptics.

    Hasn't really worked out very well for us has it? And by Us, I mean everybody, not just Tories.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    _Anazina_ said:

    Scott_P said:
    Good grief. There is no arguing with those numbers. Polls are to be taken with a large pinch of salt. But those are very large gaps.
    But it is 45 stay - 40 leave
    Generic Leave no longer exists
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 17,937

    Drutt said:

    kle4 said:

    I can't make any sense of those poll results and the reluctance of politicians to kill off the Brexit madness. Why are we doing this to ourselves?

    MPs clearly want to stop it. They have the power to stop it. But not enough for enough of them to go against the party line or to risk ending their careers.
    I still don't really understand why Labour doesn't simply abstain on the MV, allow the WA deal through, see the DUP turn puce and end the C&S agreement, and back themselves to force an election, win it and put through whatever long-term future arrangement with the EU they see fit.
    +1 I find it staggering that Labour's leadership haven't cottoned on to this yet.
    They get Tories ripping themselves apart and taking the fall for Brexit, and they get their election in short order.

    Been saying this for months.
    It’s not just a party thing. You can’t abstain on something this important. You certainly can’t vote for this deal.
  • _Anazina_ said:

    Scott_P said:
    Good grief. There is no arguing with those numbers. Polls are to be taken with a large pinch of salt. But those are very large gaps.
    No they are not. There is a 5 point difference between Remain and Leave. That is no larger than many polls in the lead up to the referendum in 2016. Even on the day Yougov had it at 52%:48% for Remain.

    For better or worse almost nothing has changed.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,512
    Scott_P said:
    That's very concerning. Whose mind will it change in Parliament and/or the EU?

    kle4 said:

    But I need food more than medicine because I'm healthy, this is an outrage!

    Is it enough to make you sick?
    Best hope not!
  • viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    nielh said:

    Sean_F said:

    Meds and food should be prioritised for Remainers.

    Leavers can go whistle, this shall be their Brexit dividend

    You need not worry. The brainlessness of the ERG makes it very likely that Brexit won't happen
    In my view, we are heading to no deal.
    I'm waiting for the outcome of tomorrow's amendments before I decide.
    I make it a 70/80 per cent chance we leave with No Deal.
    It's a tricky one. If it passes then the punters will assume No Deal is toast and the odds will get bigger. But an extension has to be granted, not just requested, and would the EU grant one? So should I still bet on No Deal even if the Cooper amendment passes?

    Aaargh. Betting. Not easy.
    Balls of steel.

    I haven't been this confident since I was laying Trump being the nominee in 2016.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 44,955
    MaxPB said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Scott_P said:
    Good grief. There is no arguing with those numbers. Polls are to be taken with a large pinch of salt. But those are very large gaps.
    40% plays against 45% with 5% saying they would vote and 9% in the DK? Are you new to polling or just a cretin?
    The EU’s response to any revocation would be to double its chips on More Europe, and ignore the bleatings of Britain forevermore, with a craven smile whilst it did so.

    There are no easy options or get outs anymore; the antebellum situation has gone for good.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,929
    _Anazina_ said:

    Foxy said:

    If I don't get one of my medicines I have to surrender my driving licence.

    That's OK Mike - there won't be any petrol either.
    Or cars...
    We’ll be lucky to have any roads.
    Where we're going, we don't need roads...
  • steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    nielh said:

    Sean_F said:

    Meds and food should be prioritised for Remainers.

    Leavers can go whistle, this shall be their Brexit dividend

    You need not worry. The brainlessness of the ERG makes it very likely that Brexit won't happen
    In my view, we are heading to no deal.
    I'm waiting for the outcome of tomorrow's amendments before I decide.
    I make it a 70/80 per cent chance we leave with No Deal.
    It's a tricky one. If it passes then the punters will assume No Deal is toast and the odds will get bigger. But an extension has to be granted, not just requested, and would the EU grant one? So should I still bet on No Deal even if the Cooper amendment passes?

    Aaargh. Betting. Not easy.
    Is it not the case that even if the Cooper amendment is passed the EU Withdrawal Bill must be repealed if no deal is to be averted? The Cooper amendment does not repeal the EU Withdrawal Bill.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited January 2019
    _Anazina_ said:

    Scott_P said:
    Good grief. There is no arguing with those numbers. Polls are to be taken with a large pinch of salt. But those are very large gaps.
    No they're not large gaps. For one thing Leave is split in two while Remain isn't.

    45-40 for Remain over Leave in a poll is much smaller lead than the 55-45 lead for Remain over Leave which was taken in a poll on 22/6/16.

    Of course in the only poll that matters, the very next day on 23/6/16 the numbers were somewhat different.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,092

    Drutt said:

    kle4 said:

    I can't make any sense of those poll results and the reluctance of politicians to kill off the Brexit madness. Why are we doing this to ourselves?

    MPs clearly want to stop it. They have the power to stop it. But not enough for enough of them to go against the party line or to risk ending their careers.
    I still don't really understand why Labour doesn't simply abstain on the MV, allow the WA deal through, see the DUP turn puce and end the C&S agreement, and back themselves to force an election, win it and put through whatever long-term future arrangement with the EU they see fit.
    Because it would lose them millions of votes in an instant, mean massive resignations from the Party and guarantee they would not only lose the next GE but many more after that.
    Would it really? Being all things to all men has been precisely the strength in their position. Surely they could maintain in so abstaining that they wanted to avoid no deal, respect the referendum result, blame the tories for brexit, and keep open the options of N+, customs union 2.0, etc etc.
  • I thought Cameron was supposed to be good at this politics shit?

    He is, but like Julius Caesar, he was betrayed by those loyal to him.
    Hahahahaha.

    When you go into a negotiation not really believing in it and just doing it to assuage your own party it ends badly - which is exactly what happened to Cameron.

    What the BBC 2 programme really shows is how little most EU leaders care about democracy. Urging Cameron to ignore his own promises just sums up that attitude.
  • So the Brady amendment - the Irish backstop replaced by what he calls "alternative arrangements to avoid a hard border" - what does that actually mean?

    Looks like trying to pass the TM deal subject to the EU agreeing unspecified alternate arrangements, probably MaxFac. That is unreasonable.

    If MPs really don't want the backstop they have to remove it or put in a time limit after which it will lapse. Anything else and there is nothing concrete for the EU to respond to.

    I think it will now be a very poorly prepared for No Deal. The EU don't want that but don't care enough to stop it. We aren't sure what we want and there are not enough votes to stop the default.

    Remain supporters will blame the Leavers. The Leave supporters will blame the EU and the PM whose heart wasn't in it. The PM will blame Labour. Labour will blame the Tories. Basically everyone will blame everyone else who isn't on 'their side'. And we will all look really stupid.

    In the long term it may be right or it may be wrong. Interesting times ahead.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 44,955

    Jonathan said:

    Cameron really screwed up.

    Amazing now to think of the years & years of the PB Tories defending every particle of his being (I seem to recall at one point Plato (RIP) said she'd marry him in a flash). Fair play to those still loyal.
    I'm still loyal.

    When I was told he was about to resign, it still feels like a kick in the gonads.
    Me too. I always had a personal and political empathy with Cameron, and still do.

    I was just very disappointed he didn’t follow through on his European policy.
    Me too. I always thought he was a pretty decent PM, but he got Europe wrong, and that was the big one. Tonite's excellent programme confirmed to me that the problem was always an internal Tory Party one, and that the Leadership's mistake was to try and appease the Eurosceptics.

    Hasn't really worked out very well for us has it? And by Us, I mean everybody, not just Tories.
    I totally disagree, actually. The “internal Tory party issue” meme is the last great comfort blanket of the Remainers and totally ignores the ever greater plurality, majority even, for greater devolution and repatriation of powers from the EU amongst the electorate that had become politically unignorable.

    When I critique Cameron’s European policy I am doing so because he didn’t seriously follow through on Bloomberg.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,893
    edited January 2019

    MaxPB said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Scott_P said:
    Good grief. There is no arguing with those numbers. Polls are to be taken with a large pinch of salt. But those are very large gaps.
    40% plays against 45% with 5% saying they would vote and 9% in the DK? Are you new to polling or just a cretin?
    The EU’s response to any revocation would be to double its chips on More Europe, and ignore the bleatings of Britain forevermore, with a craven smile whilst it did so.

    There are no easy options or get outs anymore; the antebellum situation has gone for good.
    Tbh I think if Parliament somehow contrives to remain, a party which will run on no deal with no referendum will win a majority in the next 10 years, especially if the EU were to act in that manner.

    It would be more appealing to me than staying in the EU and certainly more appealing than ever voting Conservative again.
  • dotsdots Posts: 615

    Drutt said:

    kle4 said:

    I can't make any sense of those poll results and the reluctance of politicians to kill off the Brexit madness. Why are we doing this to ourselves?

    MPs clearly want to stop it. They have the power to stop it. But not enough for enough of them to go against the party line or to risk ending their careers.
    I still don't really understand why Labour doesn't simply abstain on the MV, allow the WA deal through, see the DUP turn puce and end the C&S agreement, and back themselves to force an election, win it and put through whatever long-term future arrangement with the EU they see fit.
    +1 I find it staggering that Labour's leadership haven't cottoned on to this yet.
    They get Tories ripping themselves apart and taking the fall for Brexit, and they get their election in short order.

    Been saying this for months.
    How do they get their election? Just because the DUP go puce doesn’t mean there’s numbers for an election and possible Corbyn government?

    Also of course, if Labour makes Brexit happen what happens to their remainer votes? How many do they have to lose to other anti brexit parties for their dream of socialist government turning to dust?
  • dotsdots Posts: 615
    That Sabine Weyand is Enid Coleslaw!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,512


    I think it will now be a very poorly prepared for No Deal. The EU don't want that but don't care enough to stop it. We aren't sure what we want and there are not enough votes to stop the default.

    The worst case scenario. Stupid of both sides, but especially us.
  • Au contraire, I consider Michael Gove a hero.

    And he saved us from Boris months before lots of people had worked out what he’s really like.
    Yep. He is the one Parliamentarian apart from Ken Clarke on the Tory side who has shown both honour and common sense.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,929

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    nielh said:

    Sean_F said:

    Meds and food should be prioritised for Remainers.

    Leavers can go whistle, this shall be their Brexit dividend

    You need not worry. The brainlessness of the ERG makes it very likely that Brexit won't happen
    In my view, we are heading to no deal.
    I'm waiting for the outcome of tomorrow's amendments before I decide.
    I make it a 70/80 per cent chance we leave with No Deal.
    It's a tricky one. If it passes then the punters will assume No Deal is toast and the odds will get bigger. But an extension has to be granted, not just requested, and would the EU grant one? So should I still bet on No Deal even if the Cooper amendment passes?

    Aaargh. Betting. Not easy.
    Balls of steel.

    I haven't been this confident since I was laying Trump being the nominee in 2016.
    Unfortunately you're not a reliable contraindicator (cf Ambrose Evans-Pritchard): you were right on Rudd/Javid. As you may possibly have mentioned... :)
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,269
    On Topic - not sure what’s so scary about food shortage. We should be able to live temporarily without lettuce tomatoes and soft fruits - all examples given today - and should obviously prioritise medicines.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 22,443

    _Anazina_ said:

    Scott_P said:
    Good grief. There is no arguing with those numbers. Polls are to be taken with a large pinch of salt. But those are very large gaps.
    No they're not large gaps. For one thing Leave is split in two while Remain isn't.

    45-40 for Remain over Leave in a poll is much smaller lead than the 55-45 lead for Remain over Leave which was taken in a poll on 22/6/16.

    Of course in the only poll that matters, the very next day on 23/6/16 the numbers were somewhat different.
    There is no generic Leave option anymore.
  • HYUFD said:

    Inside Europe: Ten Years of Turmoil on BBC2 now giving an insight into the backstop to the referendum, with interviews with Juncker, Tusk, Hollande etc

    It's brilliant.
    I thought it was rather shallow myself. It sought to label the call for a referendum a mistake - it wasn't, it was bowing to the unavoidable. I remain at a loss as to what Cameron thought he could win in a "re-negotiation". He SHOULD have announced the referendum date and then refused to issue another word until the day after. Ironically if he had done that the case for Britain in Europe could have been made.

    I thought it showed quite well the delusional attitude of the "Leaders" to the views of the electorate, throughout Europe. I suppose the European Parliament is already weighted away from the centre. It is difficult to see how that will not increase next May.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 22,327

    Meds and food should be prioritised for Remainers.

    Leavers can go whistle, this shall be their Brexit dividend

    Careful. When I said something similar - and I only said that when I felt spiteful (which is not very often) I felt like that - not advocated it as a policy, I was told that I should be ashamed of myself, blah, blah.

  • viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    nielh said:

    Sean_F said:

    Meds and food should be prioritised for Remainers.

    Leavers can go whistle, this shall be their Brexit dividend

    You need not worry. The brainlessness of the ERG makes it very likely that Brexit won't happen
    In my view, we are heading to no deal.
    I'm waiting for the outcome of tomorrow's amendments before I decide.
    I make it a 70/80 per cent chance we leave with No Deal.
    It's a tricky one. If it passes then the punters will assume No Deal is toast and the odds will get bigger. But an extension has to be granted, not just requested, and would the EU grant one? So should I still bet on No Deal even if the Cooper amendment passes?

    Aaargh. Betting. Not easy.
    Balls of steel.

    I haven't been this confident since I was laying Trump being the nominee in 2016.
    Unfortunately you're not a reliable contraindicator (cf Ambrose Evans-Pritchard): you were right on Rudd/Javid. As you may possibly have mentioned... :)
    Don't forget me tipping Jeremy Hunt when he was 100/1 and 66/1.

    Which is something else I don't like to mention.
  • Drutt said:

    kle4 said:

    I can't make any sense of those poll results and the reluctance of politicians to kill off the Brexit madness. Why are we doing this to ourselves?

    MPs clearly want to stop it. They have the power to stop it. But not enough for enough of them to go against the party line or to risk ending their careers.
    I still don't really understand why Labour doesn't simply abstain on the MV, allow the WA deal through, see the DUP turn puce and end the C&S agreement, and back themselves to force an election, win it and put through whatever long-term future arrangement with the EU they see fit.
    +1 I find it staggering that Labour's leadership haven't cottoned on to this yet.
    They get Tories ripping themselves apart and taking the fall for Brexit, and they get their election in short order.

    Been saying this for months.
    The way Conservative MPs have been carrying on their thoughts on the backstop are irrelevant - because they wont be in government when it potentially comes into force.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 30,907

    Sean_F said:

    Meds and food should be prioritised for Remainers.

    Leavers can go whistle, this shall be their Brexit dividend

    You need not worry. The brainlessness of the ERG makes it very likely that Brexit won't happen
    I certainly know who I’m going to be blaming for no Brexit, if that’s what transpires.

    I won’t deliver a leaflet ever again for any of the ERG responsible.
    Your mistake and my mistake was to believe that these muppets wished to leave the EU. They would rather stay and moan about it.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,929

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    nielh said:

    Sean_F said:

    Meds and food should be prioritised for Remainers.

    Leavers can go whistle, this shall be their Brexit dividend

    You need not worry. The brainlessness of the ERG makes it very likely that Brexit won't happen
    In my view, we are heading to no deal.
    I'm waiting for the outcome of tomorrow's amendments before I decide.
    I make it a 70/80 per cent chance we leave with No Deal.
    It's a tricky one. If it passes then the punters will assume No Deal is toast and the odds will get bigger. But an extension has to be granted, not just requested, and would the EU grant one? So should I still bet on No Deal even if the Cooper amendment passes?

    Aaargh. Betting. Not easy.
    Is it not the case that even if the Cooper amendment is passed the EU Withdrawal Bill must be repealed if no deal is to be averted? The Cooper amendment does not repeal the EU Withdrawal Bill.
    I don't know. I read the Cooper amendment and the bill it refers to last night. Then my brain melted due to the clotted Parliamentary prose. But I am happy to accept your assertion.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 40,465
    edited January 2019

    When I critique Cameron’s European policy I am doing so because he didn’t seriously follow through on Bloomberg.

    Have you listened to Ivan Rogers' speech from last week?

    https://www.ucl.ac.uk/european-institute/news/2019/jan/sir-ivan-rogers-brexit-lecture-text-and-video

    The key reason David Cameron shifted over time from a Bloomberg vision of pan EU reform and flexibility to a narrower focus on entrenching key bits of a sui generis British deal was, as he once put it to me: “most of these people (his fellow leaders) don’t really agree with me on much of that”.
  • Cyclefree said:

    Meds and food should be prioritised for Remainers.

    Leavers can go whistle, this shall be their Brexit dividend

    Careful. When I said something similar - and I only said that when I felt spiteful (which is not very often) I felt like that - not advocated it as a policy, I was told that I should be ashamed of myself, blah, blah.

    I'm not taking any lessons in morality or decency from people who were prepared to campaign under this banner.

    image
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,929
    edited January 2019

    On Topic - not sure what’s so scary about food shortage. We should be able to live temporarily without lettuce tomatoes and soft fruits - all examples given today - and should obviously prioritise medicines.

    "not sure what’s so scary about food shortage"

    Pause.

    Backs away slowly.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 44,329
    dots said:

    Drutt said:

    kle4 said:

    I can't make any sense of those poll results and the reluctance of politicians to kill off the Brexit madness. Why are we doing this to ourselves?

    MPs clearly want to stop it. They have the power to stop it. But not enough for enough of them to go against the party line or to risk ending their careers.
    I still don't really understand why Labour doesn't simply abstain on the MV, allow the WA deal through, see the DUP turn puce and end the C&S agreement, and back themselves to force an election, win it and put through whatever long-term future arrangement with the EU they see fit.
    +1 I find it staggering that Labour's leadership haven't cottoned on to this yet.
    They get Tories ripping themselves apart and taking the fall for Brexit, and they get their election in short order.

    Been saying this for months.
    How do they get their election? Just because the DUP go puce doesn’t mean there’s numbers for an election and possible Corbyn government?

    Also of course, if Labour makes Brexit happen what happens to their remainer votes? How many do they have to lose to other anti brexit parties for their dream of socialist government turning to dust?
    If the DUP take their ball and go home, we have an election. Now, as I've said before, the DUP love the current quirk of Parliamentary arithmetic that gives them their power. They can milk the system. And hey, good luck to them - the Scots did well enough out of the Barnett formula for years aplenty.

    But the DUP can't get all huffy about the May Brexit settlement, and then just suck it up. Not going to happen. If ever you were putting money on a group not to suck it up, put your last dime on the DUP.....
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 32,402

    On Topic - not sure what’s so scary about food shortage. We should be able to live temporarily without lettuce tomatoes and soft fruits - all examples given today - and should obviously prioritise medicines.

    Brexit is rather poorly timed for the "hungry gap" when local winter produce is tailing off and the first summer produce still a way off.

    Isle of Wight tomatoes will still be available, and we won't starve. At worst Big Macs will be served without a teaspoon of shredded lettuce. The stodgy calories will still be plentiful.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 30,907

    _Anazina_ said:

    Scott_P said:
    Good grief. There is no arguing with those numbers. Polls are to be taken with a large pinch of salt. But those are very large gaps.
    No they are not. There is a 5 point difference between Remain and Leave. That is no larger than many polls in the lead up to the referendum in 2016. Even on the day Yougov had it at 52%:48% for Remain.

    For better or worse almost nothing has changed.
    Especially as companies like Survation, Com Res, Opinium tend to produce more Brexity numbers than Yougov, but poll less frequently.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 39,742
    Scott_P said:
    Fifty percent of Tory voters favour No Deal.
    Depressing, but I think TSE might be right. The idiots will impasse their way to a damaging outcome opposed by a large majority of the population.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 40,465
    Drutt said:
    Peel off the outer Leavers, and Britain has a heart of Remain.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 20,998

    Drutt said:
    Peel off the outer Leavers, and Britain has a heart of Remain.
    Brilliant!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,929

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    nielh said:

    Sean_F said:

    Meds and food should be prioritised for Remainers.

    Leavers can go whistle, this shall be their Brexit dividend

    You need not worry. The brainlessness of the ERG makes it very likely that Brexit won't happen
    In my view, we are heading to no deal.
    I'm waiting for the outcome of tomorrow's amendments before I decide.
    I make it a 70/80 per cent chance we leave with No Deal.
    It's a tricky one. If it passes then the punters will assume No Deal is toast and the odds will get bigger. But an extension has to be granted, not just requested, and would the EU grant one? So should I still bet on No Deal even if the Cooper amendment passes?

    Aaargh. Betting. Not easy.
    Balls of steel.

    I haven't been this confident since I was laying Trump being the nominee in 2016.
    Unfortunately you're not a reliable contraindicator (cf Ambrose Evans-Pritchard): you were right on Rudd/Javid. As you may possibly have mentioned... :)
    Don't forget me tipping Jeremy Hunt when he was 100/1 and 66/1.

    Which is something else I don't like to mention.
    Indeed. I am inspired by the way you overcome your dislike to mention it. Frequently... :)
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 22,327
    Drutt said:

    kle4 said:

    I can't make any sense of those poll results and the reluctance of politicians to kill off the Brexit madness. Why are we doing this to ourselves?

    MPs clearly want to stop it. They have the power to stop it. But not enough for enough of them to go against the party line or to risk ending their careers.
    I still don't really understand why Labour doesn't simply abstain on the MV, allow the WA deal through, see the DUP turn puce and end the C&S agreement, and back themselves to force an election, win it and put through whatever long-term future arrangement with the EU they see fit.
    Three thoughts:-

    1. They probably don't trust the DUP.
    2. They don't want to have all the bother of having to work out what sort of long-term deal they do want with the EU.
    3. They don't think they'll win a GE now. But they might later when the Tories are even weaker and Brexit is even more of a FUBAR than it looks like being now.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,023
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    nielh said:

    Sean_F said:

    Meds and food should be prioritised for Remainers.

    Leavers can go whistle, this shall be their Brexit dividend

    You need not worry. The brainlessness of the ERG makes it very likely that Brexit won't happen
    In my view, we are heading to no deal.
    I'm waiting for the outcome of tomorrow's amendments before I decide.
    I make it a 70/80 per cent chance we leave with No Deal.
    It's a tricky one. If it passes then the punters will assume No Deal is toast and the odds will get bigger. But an extension has to be granted, not just requested, and would the EU grant one? So should I still bet on No Deal even if the Cooper amendment passes?

    Aaargh. Betting. Not easy.
    I think it depends on whether you think the EU is bluffing when it says the Deal isn't negotiable.

    If not, and if nothing has been decided by the end of March and we ask for an extension, why would they want to give us one?
  • dotsdots Posts: 615
    edited January 2019
    MaxPB said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Scott_P said:
    Good grief. There is no arguing with those numbers. Polls are to be taken with a large pinch of salt. But those are very large gaps.
    40% plays against 45% with 5% saying they would vote and 9% in the DK? Are you new to polling or just a cretin?
    You are calling me a cretin too max, because I don’t think you can so easily add all the 12 on the 28. People have said on this blog they would answer as May’s deal, but if it became remain or no deal would choose remain.

    To me the main thing that leaps out from such a poll, backed by other polls, is one party membership and its voters are overwhelmingly remain on current terms, the other main party’s membership and voters strongly support no deal brexit. Leaders boxed in to the degree what they feel is right, or what they feel is the national interest, is now beyond their control, that as this thing comes to denouement, an awful large group of people in this country are going to feel right royally fucked over.
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,286
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    nielh said:

    Sean_F said:

    Meds and food should be prioritised for Remainers.

    Leavers can go whistle, this shall be their Brexit dividend

    You need not worry. The brainlessness of the ERG makes it very likely that Brexit won't happen
    In my view, we are heading to no deal.
    I'm waiting for the outcome of tomorrow's amendments before I decide.
    I make it a 70/80 per cent chance we leave with No Deal.
    It's a tricky one. If it passes then the punters will assume No Deal is toast and the odds will get bigger. But an extension has to be granted, not just requested, and would the EU grant one? So should I still bet on No Deal even if the Cooper amendment passes?

    Aaargh. Betting. Not easy.
    Is it not the case that even if the Cooper amendment is passed the EU Withdrawal Bill must be repealed if no deal is to be averted? The Cooper amendment does not repeal the EU Withdrawal Bill.
    I don't know. I read the Cooper amendment and the bill it refers to last night. Then my brain melted due to the clotted Parliamentary prose. But I am happy to accept your assertion.
    Doesn’t the Withdrawal Act have a massive can-kicking clause in there, which allows a minister to take a pot of TippEx to the leaving date and change it? Presumably to avoid a snafu at 10pm on the 29th if someone screws up. Appreciate it would need repealing eventually, but setting an exit date of, what, 3019, should give them time..
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 32,402
    Nigelb said:

    Scott_P said:
    Fifty percent of Tory voters favour No Deal.
    Depressing, but I think TSE might be right. The idiots will impasse their way to a damaging outcome opposed by a large majority of the population.
    More Tory voters favour Remain (22%) than May's Deal (20%).

    That goose is cooked.
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    nielh said:

    Sean_F said:

    Meds and food should be prioritised for Remainers.

    Leavers can go whistle, this shall be their Brexit dividend

    You need not worry. The brainlessness of the ERG makes it very likely that Brexit won't happen
    In my view, we are heading to no deal.
    I'm waiting for the outcome of tomorrow's amendments before I decide.
    I make it a 70/80 per cent chance we leave with No Deal.
    It's a tricky one. If it passes then the punters will assume No Deal is toast and the odds will get bigger. But an extension has to be granted, not just requested, and would the EU grant one? So should I still bet on No Deal even if the Cooper amendment passes?

    Aaargh. Betting. Not easy.
    Is it not the case that even if the Cooper amendment is passed the EU Withdrawal Bill must be repealed if no deal is to be averted? The Cooper amendment does not repeal the EU Withdrawal Bill.
    I don't know. I read the Cooper amendment and the bill it refers to last night. Then my brain melted due to the clotted Parliamentary prose. But I am happy to accept your assertion.
    The 4.5 on the UK leaving the EU on 29 March seems like good value, to me.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,269

    Drutt said:

    kle4 said:

    I can't make any sense of those poll results and the reluctance of politicians to kill off the Brexit madness. Why are we doing this to ourselves?

    MPs clearly want to stop it. They have the power to stop it. But not enough for enough of them to go against the party line or to risk ending their careers.
    I still don't really understand why Labour doesn't simply abstain on the MV, allow the WA deal through, see the DUP turn puce and end the C&S agreement, and back themselves to force an election, win it and put through whatever long-term future arrangement with the EU they see fit.
    +1 I find it staggering that Labour's leadership haven't cottoned on to this yet.
    It’s the obvious move.
    It seems the obvious move to generate an election. However the polling numbers at the last election were boosted by being the anti T May requires your vote for a huge majority. The Greens and Lib Dem’s coalesced around Labour as a means to stop Brexit. Would they do that again if Labour has enabled Brexit by means of abstention.
  • viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    nielh said:

    Sean_F said:

    Meds and food should be prioritised for Remainers.

    Leavers can go whistle, this shall be their Brexit dividend

    You need not worry. The brainlessness of the ERG makes it very likely that Brexit won't happen
    In my view, we are heading to no deal.
    I'm waiting for the outcome of tomorrow's amendments before I decide.
    I make it a 70/80 per cent chance we leave with No Deal.
    It's a tricky one. If it passes then the punters will assume No Deal is toast and the odds will get bigger. But an extension has to be granted, not just requested, and would the EU grant one? So should I still bet on No Deal even if the Cooper amendment passes?

    Aaargh. Betting. Not easy.
    Is it not the case that even if the Cooper amendment is passed the EU Withdrawal Bill must be repealed if no deal is to be averted? The Cooper amendment does not repeal the EU Withdrawal Bill.
    I don't know. I read the Cooper amendment and the bill it refers to last night. Then my brain melted due to the clotted Parliamentary prose. But I am happy to accept your assertion.
    Apart from the fact I disagree with it, the one practical problem I see with the Cooper amendment is it is instructing the government to do something that is not simply not in its power. If the Cooper amendment passes then May goes back to the EU and asks for an extension. It is highly debatable if they would give one since there is no reason for it other than to allow for more negotiation - something the EU has said it will not do.

    But even if they do give it, it will be time limited and any thought of further negotiation will disappear into the ether. And when the first extension runs out they are certainly not going to extend it further.

    Basically it solves nothing and actually causes more problems and makes a deal less likely. .
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 29,003
    Drutt said:


    I still don't really understand why Labour doesn't simply abstain on the MV, allow the WA deal through, see the DUP turn puce and end the C&S agreement, and back themselves to force an election, win it and put through whatever long-term future arrangement with the EU they see fit.

    I used to think that too. I now see it differently. May is cornered and if Labour hold the line - just continue to oppose and not get dragged into a search for alternatives - they can force her to make the ultimate choice of no deal or revoke. Either of those should be sufficient to sweep Jeremy Corbyn into Downing Street.

    But will Cooper spoil things?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 30,907

    Cyclefree said:

    Meds and food should be prioritised for Remainers.

    Leavers can go whistle, this shall be their Brexit dividend

    Careful. When I said something similar - and I only said that when I felt spiteful (which is not very often) I felt like that - not advocated it as a policy, I was told that I should be ashamed of myself, blah, blah.

    I'm not taking any lessons in morality or decency from people who were prepared to campaign under this banner.

    image
    But, they are the people you've campaigned with for ages.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,023
    viewcode said:

    On Topic - not sure what’s so scary about food shortage. We should be able to live temporarily without lettuce tomatoes and soft fruits - all examples given today - and should obviously prioritise medicines.

    "not sure what’s so scary about food shortage"

    Pause.

    Backs away slowly.

    If it actually happens, I suspect the sound of wailing and gnashing of teeth from people who said they weren't frightened by it will be absolutely deafening.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,929
    Chris said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    nielh said:

    Sean_F said:

    Meds and food should be prioritised for Remainers.

    Leavers can go whistle, this shall be their Brexit dividend

    You need not worry. The brainlessness of the ERG makes it very likely that Brexit won't happen
    In my view, we are heading to no deal.
    I'm waiting for the outcome of tomorrow's amendments before I decide.
    I make it a 70/80 per cent chance we leave with No Deal.
    It's a tricky one. If it passes then the punters will assume No Deal is toast and the odds will get bigger. But an extension has to be granted, not just requested, and would the EU grant one? So should I still bet on No Deal even if the Cooper amendment passes?

    Aaargh. Betting. Not easy.
    I think it depends on whether you think the EU is bluffing when it says the Deal isn't negotiable.

    If not, and if nothing has been decided by the end of March and we ask for an extension, why would they want to give us one?
    I genuinely don't know.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 99,118
    dots said:

    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1089997071669751818
    That's Cooper' amendment's passed then, isn't it? Making May's plans immaterial?

    Not necessarily - there's quite a few Labour MPs (Caroline Flint being one) who have said they won't be voting for it, and all the Tory MPs who spent weeks talking about how they were committed to avoiding No Deal are (predictably) bottling out of actually following through when it matters.

    But it will be amusing to see the mental gymnastics Southam Observer goes through to blame Corbyn for No Deal when he's the one who voted to prevent it happening, but the House of Commons as a whole said otherwise.
    Also, to add to this: even if Cooper's amendment passes, May's efforts wouldn't be immaterial, would they? I thought it was that A50 gets extended if there's no deal ratified by the end of Feb - so, if by some miracle May does manage to magically renegotiate her deal and MPs vote it through, then Cooper's amendment becomes obsolete.
    problems with Coopers amendment.

    1) There is some truth the cliff edge facing both parties and the ticking clock could lead to a climb down, and a better deal, but if commons supports Coopers amendment Britain stops waving it’s guns, instantly our negotiating strength is neutralised. It doesn’t stop no deal brexit, just kicks it down the road, it’s not a solution taking us closer to resolution, it’s can kicking leaving us nowhere.

    2) Coopers amendment cannot deliver on its promise. It’s not in the power of UK either government or parliament to create an extension, merely ask the EU to grant one with a case we are actually doing something constructive with the time. Which is What?

    3). If a lot of Labour MPs see it like this and rebel a whip (if indeed Labour leadership are whipping support for it, hard to believe they are that dumb to invite the two strong attacks 1 & 2 above from government party against them) then it dangerously fragments a previously solid PLP weakening the party whip.
    In my view the Benn amendment, which allows Parliament to vote on No Deal, May's Deal, renegotiating May's Deal and EUref2 and the Grieve amendment, enabling Parliament to propose Brexit options are more significant than the Cooper amendment as they allow Parliament to take control, extending Article 50 is merely can kicking though provides more time for alternatives to be fobsidered
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,269
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_P said:
    Fifty percent of Tory voters favour No Deal.
    Depressing, but I think TSE might be right. The idiots will impasse their way to a damaging outcome opposed by a large majority of the population.
    More Tory voters favour Remain (22%) than May's Deal (20%).

    That goose is cooked.
    I just don’t think it is - whilst it is not the preferred option it is the most acceptable to the most people.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 44,329

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    nielh said:

    Sean_F said:

    Meds and food should be prioritised for Remainers.

    Leavers can go whistle, this shall be their Brexit dividend

    You need not worry. The brainlessness of the ERG makes it very likely that Brexit won't happen
    In my view, we are heading to no deal.
    I'm waiting for the outcome of tomorrow's amendments before I decide.
    I make it a 70/80 per cent chance we leave with No Deal.
    It's a tricky one. If it passes then the punters will assume No Deal is toast and the odds will get bigger. But an extension has to be granted, not just requested, and would the EU grant one? So should I still bet on No Deal even if the Cooper amendment passes?

    Aaargh. Betting. Not easy.
    Is it not the case that even if the Cooper amendment is passed the EU Withdrawal Bill must be repealed if no deal is to be averted? The Cooper amendment does not repeal the EU Withdrawal Bill.
    I don't know. I read the Cooper amendment and the bill it refers to last night. Then my brain melted due to the clotted Parliamentary prose. But I am happy to accept your assertion.
    Apart from the fact I disagree with it, the one practical problem I see with the Cooper amendment is it is instructing the government to do something that is not simply not in its power. If the Cooper amendment passes then May goes back to the EU and asks for an extension. It is highly debatable if they would give one since there is no reason for it other than to allow for more negotiation - something the EU has said it will not do.

    But even if they do give it, it will be time limited and any thought of further negotiation will disappear into the ether. And when the first extension runs out they are certainly not going to extend it further.

    Basically it solves nothing and actually causes more problems and makes a deal less likely. .
    Yup. It is stupid.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,929
    nielh said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    nielh said:

    Sean_F said:

    Meds and food should be prioritised for Remainers.

    Leavers can go whistle, this shall be their Brexit dividend

    You need not worry. The brainlessness of the ERG makes it very likely that Brexit won't happen
    In my view, we are heading to no deal.
    I'm waiting for the outcome of tomorrow's amendments before I decide.
    I make it a 70/80 per cent chance we leave with No Deal.
    It's a tricky one. If it passes then the punters will assume No Deal is toast and the odds will get bigger. But an extension has to be granted, not just requested, and would the EU grant one? So should I still bet on No Deal even if the Cooper amendment passes?

    Aaargh. Betting. Not easy.
    Is it not the case that even if the Cooper amendment is passed the EU Withdrawal Bill must be repealed if no deal is to be averted? The Cooper amendment does not repeal the EU Withdrawal Bill.
    I don't know. I read the Cooper amendment and the bill it refers to last night. Then my brain melted due to the clotted Parliamentary prose. But I am happy to accept your assertion.
    The 4.5 on the UK leaving the EU on 29 March seems like good value, to me.
    (I don't bet online. High-street shop odds are lower, around 11/4)
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,023

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    nielh said:

    Sean_F said:

    Meds and food should be prioritised for Remainers.

    Leavers can go whistle, this shall be their Brexit dividend

    You need not worry. The brainlessness of the ERG makes it very likely that Brexit won't happen
    In my view, we are heading to no deal.
    I'm waiting for the outcome of tomorrow's amendments before I decide.
    I make it a 70/80 per cent chance we leave with No Deal.
    It's a tricky one. If it passes then the punters will assume No Deal is toast and the odds will get bigger. But an extension has to be granted, not just requested, and would the EU grant one? So should I still bet on No Deal even if the Cooper amendment passes?

    Aaargh. Betting. Not easy.
    Is it not the case that even if the Cooper amendment is passed the EU Withdrawal Bill must be repealed if no deal is to be averted? The Cooper amendment does not repeal the EU Withdrawal Bill.
    I don't know. I read the Cooper amendment and the bill it refers to last night. Then my brain melted due to the clotted Parliamentary prose. But I am happy to accept your assertion.
    Apart from the fact I disagree with it, the one practical problem I see with the Cooper amendment is it is instructing the government to do something that is not simply not in its power. If the Cooper amendment passes then May goes back to the EU and asks for an extension. It is highly debatable if they would give one since there is no reason for it other than to allow for more negotiation - something the EU has said it will not do.

    But even if they do give it, it will be time limited and any thought of further negotiation will disappear into the ether. And when the first extension runs out they are certainly not going to extend it further.

    Basically it solves nothing and actually causes more problems and makes a deal less likely. .
    Yes. It's actually quite dangerous.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 99,118
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_P said:
    Fifty percent of Tory voters favour No Deal.
    Depressing, but I think TSE might be right. The idiots will impasse their way to a damaging outcome opposed by a large majority of the population.
    More Tory voters favour Remain (22%) than May's Deal (20%).

    That goose is cooked.
    Not true as May's Deal is both Remainers and No Dealers second preference.

  • viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    nielh said:

    Sean_F said:

    Meds and food should be prioritised for Remainers.

    Leavers can go whistle, this shall be their Brexit dividend

    You need not worry. The brainlessness of the ERG makes it very likely that Brexit won't happen
    In my view, we are heading to no deal.
    I'm waiting for the outcome of tomorrow's amendments before I decide.
    I make it a 70/80 per cent chance we leave with No Deal.
    It's a tricky one. If it passes then the punters will assume No Deal is toast and the odds will get bigger. But an extension has to be granted, not just requested, and would the EU grant one? So should I still bet on No Deal even if the Cooper amendment passes?

    Aaargh. Betting. Not easy.
    Is it not the case that even if the Cooper amendment is passed the EU Withdrawal Bill must be repealed if no deal is to be averted? The Cooper amendment does not repeal the EU Withdrawal Bill.
    I don't know. I read the Cooper amendment and the bill it refers to last night. Then my brain melted due to the clotted Parliamentary prose. But I am happy to accept your assertion.
    Doesn’t the Withdrawal Act have a massive can-kicking clause in there, which allows a minister to take a pot of TippEx to the leaving date and change it? Presumably to avoid a snafu at 10pm on the 29th if someone screws up. Appreciate it would need repealing eventually, but setting an exit date of, what, 3019, should give them time..
    No because it has to be agreed by all 27 other members and they will want a time limit.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 30,907
    kinabalu said:

    Drutt said:


    I still don't really understand why Labour doesn't simply abstain on the MV, allow the WA deal through, see the DUP turn puce and end the C&S agreement, and back themselves to force an election, win it and put through whatever long-term future arrangement with the EU they see fit.

    I used to think that too. I now see it differently. May is cornered and if Labour hold the line - just continue to oppose and not get dragged into a search for alternatives - they can force her to make the ultimate choice of no deal or revoke. Either of those should be sufficient to sweep Jeremy Corbyn into Downing Street.

    But will Cooper spoil things?
    Revoke finishes the Conservatives. No Deal merely hurts them.
  • dotsdots Posts: 615

    dots said:

    Drutt said:

    kle4 said:

    I can't make any sense of those poll results and the reluctance of politicians to kill off the Brexit madness. Why are we doing this to ourselves?

    MPs clearly want to stop it. They have the power to stop it. But not enough for enough of them to go against the party line or to risk ending their careers.
    I still don't really understand why Labour doesn't simply abstain on the MV, allow the WA deal through, see the DUP turn puce and end the C&S agreement, and back themselves to force an election, win it and put through whatever long-term future arrangement with the EU they see fit.
    +1 I find it staggering that Labour's leadership haven't cottoned on to this yet.
    They get Tories ripping themselves apart and taking the fall for Brexit, and they get their election in short order.

    Been saying this for months.
    How do they get their election? Just because the DUP go puce doesn’t mean there’s numbers for an election and possible Corbyn government?

    Also of course, if Labour makes Brexit happen what happens to their remainer votes? How many do they have to lose to other anti brexit parties for their dream of socialist government turning to dust?
    If the DUP take their ball and go home, we have an election. Now, as I've said before, the DUP love the current quirk of Parliamentary arithmetic that gives them their power. They can milk the system. And hey, good luck to them - the Scots did well enough out of the Barnett formula for years aplenty.

    But the DUP can't get all huffy about the May Brexit settlement, and then just suck it up. Not going to happen. If ever you were putting money on a group not to suck it up, put your last dime on the DUP.....
    DUP abstain in vote of no confidence, which is what they most likely would do, you think there is then numbers for Corbyn to win vote of no confidence? The answers a very tight no. Woodcocks not doing it.
  • viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    nielh said:

    Sean_F said:

    Meds and food should be prioritised for Remainers.

    Leavers can go whistle, this shall be their Brexit dividend

    You need not worry. The brainlessness of the ERG makes it very likely that Brexit won't happen
    In my view, we are heading to no deal.
    I'm waiting for the outcome of tomorrow's amendments before I decide.
    I make it a 70/80 per cent chance we leave with No Deal.
    It's a tricky one. If it passes then the punters will assume No Deal is toast and the odds will get bigger. But an extension has to be granted, not just requested, and would the EU grant one? So should I still bet on No Deal even if the Cooper amendment passes?

    Aaargh. Betting. Not easy.
    Is it not the case that even if the Cooper amendment is passed the EU Withdrawal Bill must be repealed if no deal is to be averted? The Cooper amendment does not repeal the EU Withdrawal Bill.
    I don't know. I read the Cooper amendment and the bill it refers to last night. Then my brain melted due to the clotted Parliamentary prose. But I am happy to accept your assertion.
    Apart from the fact I disagree with it, the one practical problem I see with the Cooper amendment is it is instructing the government to do something that is not simply not in its power. If the Cooper amendment passes then May goes back to the EU and asks for an extension. It is highly debatable if they would give one since there is no reason for it other than to allow for more negotiation - something the EU has said it will not do.

    But even if they do give it, it will be time limited and any thought of further negotiation will disappear into the ether. And when the first extension runs out they are certainly not going to extend it further.

    Basically it solves nothing and actually causes more problems and makes a deal less likely. .
    Yup. It is stupid.
    Yes, I think so too. So that's three of us from very different political viewpoints agreeing. Is this a first for PB?
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307
    Chris said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    nielh said:

    Sean_F said:

    Meds and food should be prioritised for Remainers.

    Leavers can go whistle, this shall be their Brexit dividend

    You need not worry. The brainlessness of the ERG makes it very likely that Brexit won't happen
    In my view, we are heading to no deal.
    I'm waiting for the outcome of tomorrow's amendments before I decide.
    I make it a 70/80 per cent chance we leave with No Deal.
    It's a tricky one. If it passes then the punters will assume No Deal is toast and the odds will get bigger. But an extension has to be granted, not just requested, and would the EU grant one? So should I still bet on No Deal even if the Cooper amendment passes?

    Aaargh. Betting. Not easy.
    I think it depends on whether you think the EU is bluffing when it says the Deal isn't negotiable.

    If not, and if nothing has been decided by the end of March and we ask for an extension, why would they want to give us one?
    The simple answer to this is to avoid no deal. It creates all sorts of problems, particularly with ports, Ireland etc. Surely it would be easier for the EU to just extend the Article 50 period.

    The problem is that parliament cannot decide what to do, which seems to be leading us to a chaotic no deal exit.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,023
    nielh said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    nielh said:

    Sean_F said:

    Meds and food should be prioritised for Remainers.

    Leavers can go whistle, this shall be their Brexit dividend

    You need not worry. The brainlessness of the ERG makes it very likely that Brexit won't happen
    In my view, we are heading to no deal.
    I'm waiting for the outcome of tomorrow's amendments before I decide.
    I make it a 70/80 per cent chance we leave with No Deal.
    It's a tricky one. If it passes then the punters will assume No Deal is toast and the odds will get bigger. But an extension has to be granted, not just requested, and would the EU grant one? So should I still bet on No Deal even if the Cooper amendment passes?

    Aaargh. Betting. Not easy.
    Is it not the case that even if the Cooper amendment is passed the EU Withdrawal Bill must be repealed if no deal is to be averted? The Cooper amendment does not repeal the EU Withdrawal Bill.
    I don't know. I read the Cooper amendment and the bill it refers to last night. Then my brain melted due to the clotted Parliamentary prose. But I am happy to accept your assertion.
    The 4.5 on the UK leaving the EU on 29 March seems like good value, to me.
    Isn't 6.8 on No Deal on 29 March better value, given the doubts about whether there's time to legislate for a Deal by then?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 40,465
    Sean_F said:

    kinabalu said:

    Drutt said:


    I still don't really understand why Labour doesn't simply abstain on the MV, allow the WA deal through, see the DUP turn puce and end the C&S agreement, and back themselves to force an election, win it and put through whatever long-term future arrangement with the EU they see fit.

    I used to think that too. I now see it differently. May is cornered and if Labour hold the line - just continue to oppose and not get dragged into a search for alternatives - they can force her to make the ultimate choice of no deal or revoke. Either of those should be sufficient to sweep Jeremy Corbyn into Downing Street.

    But will Cooper spoil things?
    Revoke finishes the Conservatives. No Deal merely hurts them.
    The "and Unionist" part would be defunct soon after No Deal.
  • At the age of 54 I’m doing something I’ve never done before: staying in a hotel in London. It’s also the first hotel I’ve stayed in that supplies KitKats free of charge. What is not to like?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,512
    Scott_P said:
    She is clearly very able and effective. She is, however, being dishonest in her intentions, unnecessarily so in my opinion.
  • "12.Whether or not the UK becomes a signatory to the Pharmaceutical Tariff Elimination Agreement after it leaves the EU, it will still be able to trade with the EU on the basis of a zero tariff for pharmaceutical products. In written evidence to the House of Lords EU External Affairs Subcommittee in February 2017, the Government confirmed that..."

    https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cmselect/cmbeis/382/38205.htm
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,286

    Au contraire, I consider Michael Gove a hero.

    And he saved us from Boris months before lots of people had worked out what he’s really like.
    Yep. He is the one Parliamentarian apart from Ken Clarke on the Tory side who has shown both honour and common sense.

    Speaking as a fairly remainy former school governor who stepped down after a year or two of him as SoS, I’d say he’s had a reasonably good Brexit. Certainly fewer public demands for unicorns, and a gratifying absence of making a dick of himself. (Admittedly I’m comparing him to JRM, Dorries, Raab and others who seem to open their mouths only to put their feet in)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 44,329

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    nielh said:

    Sean_F said:

    Meds and food should be prioritised for Remainers.

    Leavers can go whistle, this shall be their Brexit dividend

    You need not worry. The brainlessness of the ERG makes it very likely that Brexit won't happen
    In my view, we are heading to no deal.
    I'm waiting for the outcome of tomorrow's amendments before I decide.
    I make it a 70/80 per cent chance we leave with No Deal.
    It's a tricky one. If it passes then the punters will assume No Deal is toast and the odds will get bigger. But an extension has to be granted, not just requested, and would the EU grant one? So should I still bet on No Deal even if the Cooper amendment passes?

    Aaargh. Betting. Not easy.
    Is it not the case that even if the Cooper amendment is passed the EU Withdrawal Bill must be repealed if no deal is to be averted? The Cooper amendment does not repeal the EU Withdrawal Bill.
    I don't know. I read the Cooper amendment and the bill it refers to last night. Then my brain melted due to the clotted Parliamentary prose. But I am happy to accept your assertion.
    Apart from the fact I disagree with it, the one practical problem I see with the Cooper amendment is it is instructing the government to do something that is not simply not in its power. If the Cooper amendment passes then May goes back to the EU and asks for an extension. It is highly debatable if they would give one since there is no reason for it other than to allow for more negotiation - something the EU has said it will not do.

    But even if they do give it, it will be time limited and any thought of further negotiation will disappear into the ether. And when the first extension runs out they are certainly not going to extend it further.

    Basically it solves nothing and actually causes more problems and makes a deal less likely. .
    Yup. It is stupid.
    Yes, I think so too. So that's three of us from very different political viewpoints agreeing. Is this a first for PB?
    There is hope!
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 22,327
    Scott_P said:
    As predicted by me.

    (And no doubt others.)

    Just revoke - for God's sake. We keep our existing membership terms.

    Then we should have a crowdfunding exercise on Facebook for the Tory party to have the intensive therapy it so badly needs.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 16,020
    MaxPB said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Scott_P said:
    Good grief. There is no arguing with those numbers. Polls are to be taken with a large pinch of salt. But those are very large gaps.
    40% plays against 45% with 5% saying they would vote and 9% in the DK? Are you new to polling or just a cretin?
    I don't wish to give cause for alarm but you're adding two numbers for different things together when we know some voters go Thing 1 > Other Thing > Thing 2 or the other way around, and we also know you're not new to polling, so I'm afraid that makes you...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,512
    Scott_P said:
    Funny, if untrue - the whole process has been a negotiation, albeit very badly handled, it is not as though it were impossible to get anything through argument.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,092
    kinabalu said:

    Drutt said:


    I still don't really understand why Labour doesn't simply abstain on the MV, allow the WA deal through, see the DUP turn puce and end the C&S agreement, and back themselves to force an election, win it and put through whatever long-term future arrangement with the EU they see fit.

    I used to think that too. I now see it differently. May is cornered and if Labour hold the line - just continue to oppose and not get dragged into a search for alternatives - they can force her to make the ultimate choice of no deal or revoke. Either of those should be sufficient to sweep Jeremy Corbyn into Downing Street.

    But will Cooper spoil things?
    And yet, if May could take one of those 'off the table', let's say at Labour's insistence, would Labour then be in the position where it has to stop opposing the WA deal or be seen to be backing the surviving (previously unthinkable) alternative?
  • dotsdots Posts: 615
    Chris said:

    nielh said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    nielh said:

    Sean_F said:

    Meds and food should be prioritised for Remainers.

    Leavers can go whistle, this shall be their Brexit dividend

    You need not worry. The brainlessness of the ERG makes it very likely that Brexit won't happen
    In my view, we are heading to no deal.
    I'm waiting for the outcome of tomorrow's amendments before I decide.
    I make it a 70/80 per cent chance we leave with No Deal.
    It's a tricky one. If it passes then the punters will assume No Deal is toast and the odds will get bigger. But an extension has to be granted, not just requested, and would the EU grant one? So should I still bet on No Deal even if the Cooper amendment passes?

    Aaargh. Betting. Not easy.
    Is it not the case that even if the Cooper amendment is passed the EU Withdrawal Bill must be repealed if no deal is to be averted? The Cooper amendment does not repeal the EU Withdrawal Bill.
    I don't know. I read the Cooper amendment and the bill it refers to last night. Then my brain melted due to the clotted Parliamentary prose. But I am happy to accept your assertion.
    The 4.5 on the UK leaving the EU on 29 March seems like good value, to me.
    Isn't 6.8 on No Deal on 29 March better value, given the doubts about whether there's time to legislate for a Deal by then?
    No time now for a deal brexit 29 March.

    My bet is on deal brexit spring early summer this year
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 32,402
    nielh said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    nielh said:

    Sean_F said:

    Meds and food should be prioritised for Remainers.

    Leavers can go whistle, this shall be their Brexit dividend

    You need not worry. The brainlessness of the ERG makes it very likely that Brexit won't happen
    In my view, we are heading to no deal.
    I'm waiting for the outcome of tomorrow's amendments before I decide.
    I make it a 70/80 per cent chance we leave with No Deal.
    It's a tricky one. If it passes then the punters will assume No Deal is toast and the odds will get bigger. But an extension has to be granted, not just requested, and would the EU grant one? So should I still bet on No Deal even if the Cooper amendment passes?

    Aaargh. Betting. Not easy.
    Is it not the case that even if the Cooper amendment is passed the EU Withdrawal Bill must be repealed if no deal is to be averted? The Cooper amendment does not repeal the EU Withdrawal Bill.
    I don't know. I read the Cooper amendment and the bill it refers to last night. Then my brain melted due to the clotted Parliamentary prose. But I am happy to accept your assertion.
    The 4.5 on the UK leaving the EU on 29 March seems like good value, to me.
    Yes, I am happy to fairly heavily back that one. Its Thelma and Louise time in Westminster.

  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,286

    So the Brady amendment - the Irish backstop replaced by what he calls "alternative arrangements to avoid a hard border" - what does that actually mean?

    One of those horses with a big spiky thing on the front of its head
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,269
    viewcode said:

    On Topic - not sure what’s so scary about food shortage. We should be able to live temporarily without lettuce tomatoes and soft fruits - all examples given today - and should obviously prioritise medicines.

    "not sure what’s so scary about food shortage"

    Pause.

    Backs away slowly.

    If the examples given are the lettuce tomatoes and soft fruits I don’t count it as a food shortage - it would be an inconvenience. If we run out of bread, potatoes etc then that would be more of a worry. I’m just saying I wasn’t convinced by the person on 5live. If I can’t eat something like green veg and apples then I am not very imaginative. I mean my local Tesco is pretty spotty on soft fruit and I just manage my diet without it. Last summer it was hard to get lettuce we just didn’t eat lettuce.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    nielh said:


    The simple answer to this is to avoid no deal. It creates all sorts of problems, particularly with ports, Ireland etc. Surely it would be easier for the EU to just extend the Article 50 period.


    What does that achieve though? We just reach the same impasse in a few months: withdrawal agreement or no-deal.
  • dotsdots Posts: 615
    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Meds and food should be prioritised for Remainers.

    Leavers can go whistle, this shall be their Brexit dividend

    You need not worry. The brainlessness of the ERG makes it very likely that Brexit won't happen
    We exit in March, that's the law.

    If you look at the rhetoric coming from some Leavers, similar to that which Thomas Mair used, you can understand why some MPs won't revoke Article 50.
    Laws are malleable.

    First, kick the can down the road, then say it's all too difficult.
    The funny thing is I haven’t been convinced by a single argument of the EUphiles or passionate ultra-Remainers. Not once.

    The only ones who’ve made me question the wisdom of my original decision have been the absolute idiots on my own side.

    I assumed they’d all pragmatically coalesce around an acceptable compromise that put Britain on a different future political path but, unlike Gove, Geoffrey Cox and a small number of others, they seem incapable of any rational or strategic thinking on this.
    They can perhaps be split into five groups:

    1) The Death Cult Leavers who don't want any agreement with the EU
    2) The Libertarian Pirate Island Leavers who want their small government fantasy
    3) The posturing arseholes who want to complain but take no responsibility
    4) The ambitious arseholes who think it boosts their career plans
    5) Useful idiots of one or more of the above

    To sum up the Conservative party is not fit for purpose.
    The only thing keeping me in the Tory party is that I'll have a vote in the next leadership election and my vote could help the party return to sanity.
    Being rather optimistic that one of the options you will be presented with will be a sane one.

    Edit: Seems like the best case scenario is an utterly fanatical no dealer or completely unprincipled person like Boris vs a cowardfly slippery snake like, say, Hunt.
    And if it doesn’t work, where will you go, Screaming?
  • dotsdots Posts: 615

    viewcode said:

    On Topic - not sure what’s so scary about food shortage. We should be able to live temporarily without lettuce tomatoes and soft fruits - all examples given today - and should obviously prioritise medicines.

    "not sure what’s so scary about food shortage"

    Pause.

    Backs away slowly.

    If the examples given are the lettuce tomatoes and soft fruits I don’t count it as a food shortage - it would be an inconvenience. If we run out of bread, potatoes etc then that would be more of a worry. I’m just saying I wasn’t convinced by the person on 5live. If I can’t eat something like green veg and apples then I am not very imaginative. I mean my local Tesco is pretty spotty on soft fruit and I just manage my diet without it. Last summer it was hard to get lettuce we just didn’t eat lettuce.
    Tomatoe is a fruit.
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307
    viewcode said:

    nielh said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    nielh said:

    Sean_F said:

    Meds and food should be prioritised for Remainers.

    Leavers can go whistle, this shall be their Brexit dividend

    You need not worry. The brainlessness of the ERG makes it very likely that Brexit won't happen
    In my view, we are heading to no deal.
    I'm waiting for the outcome of tomorrow's amendments before I decide.
    I make it a 70/80 per cent chance we leave with No Deal.
    It's a tricky one. If it passes then the punters will assume No Deal is toast and the odds will get bigger. But an extension has to be granted, not just requested, and would the EU grant one? So should I still bet on No Deal even if the Cooper amendment passes?

    Aaargh. Betting. Not easy.
    Is it not the case that even if the Cooper amendment is passed the EU Withdrawal Bill must be repealed if no deal is to be averted? The Cooper amendment does not repeal the EU Withdrawal Bill.
    I don't know. I read the Cooper amendment and the bill it refers to last night. Then my brain melted due to the clotted Parliamentary prose. But I am happy to accept your assertion.
    The 4.5 on the UK leaving the EU on 29 March seems like good value, to me.
    (I don't bet online. High-street shop odds are lower, around 11/4)
    I don't bet at all. I've started stockpiling food, as I think there is a high probability that food prices are going to rise. Its the food we would eat anyway, so the only cost to us is the storage space.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 99,118
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_P said:
    Fifty percent of Tory voters favour No Deal.
    Depressing, but I think TSE might be right. The idiots will impasse their way to a damaging outcome opposed by a large majority of the population.
    More Tory voters favour Remain (22%) than May's Deal (20%).

    That goose is cooked.
    Not true as May's Deal is both Remainers and No Dealers second preference.

    Last month Yougov had the Deal tied with Remain 50% to 50% after preferences and the Deal beating No Deal 62% to 38% after preferences. On first preferences no option gets over 50%

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2018/12/06/mays-brexit-deal-leads-just-two-constituencies-it-
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307
    Chris said:

    nielh said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    nielh said:

    Sean_F said:

    Meds and food should be prioritised for Remainers.

    Leavers can go whistle, this shall be their Brexit dividend

    You need not worry. The brainlessness of the ERG makes it very likely that Brexit won't happen
    In my view, we are heading to no deal.
    I'm waiting for the outcome of tomorrow's amendments before I decide.
    I make it a 70/80 per cent chance we leave with No Deal.
    It's a tricky one. If it passes then the punters will assume No Deal is toast and the odds will get bigger. But an extension has to be granted, not just requested, and would the EU grant one? So should I still bet on No Deal even if the Cooper amendment passes?

    Aaargh. Betting. Not easy.
    Is it not the case that even if the Cooper amendment is passed the EU Withdrawal Bill must be repealed if no deal is to be averted? The Cooper amendment does not repeal the EU Withdrawal Bill.
    I don't know. I read the Cooper amendment and the bill it refers to last night. Then my brain melted due to the clotted Parliamentary prose. But I am happy to accept your assertion.
    The 4.5 on the UK leaving the EU on 29 March seems like good value, to me.
    Isn't 6.8 on No Deal on 29 March better value, given the doubts about whether there's time to legislate for a Deal by then?
    But then you get in to the 'what do you mean by no deal' complexity. Too messy.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,023
    dots said:

    Chris said:

    nielh said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    nielh said:

    Sean_F said:

    Meds and food should be prioritised for Remainers.

    Leavers can go whistle, this shall be their Brexit dividend

    You need not worry. The brainlessness of the ERG makes it very likely that Brexit won't happen
    In my view, we are heading to no deal.
    I'm waiting for the outcome of tomorrow's amendments before I decide.
    I make it a 70/80 per cent chance we leave with No Deal.
    It's a tricky one. If it passes then the punters will assume No Deal is toast and the odds will get bigger. But an extension has to be granted, not just requested, and would the EU grant one? So should I still bet on No Deal even if the Cooper amendment passes?

    Aaargh. Betting. Not easy.
    Is it not the case that even if the Cooper amendment is passed the EU Withdrawal Bill must be repealed if no deal is to be averted? The Cooper amendment does not repeal the EU Withdrawal Bill.
    I don't know. I read the Cooper amendment and the bill it refers to last night. Then my brain melted due to the clotted Parliamentary prose. But I am happy to accept your assertion.
    The 4.5 on the UK leaving the EU on 29 March seems like good value, to me.
    Isn't 6.8 on No Deal on 29 March better value, given the doubts about whether there's time to legislate for a Deal by then?
    No time now for a deal brexit 29 March.

    My bet is on deal brexit spring early summer this year
    My point is that if people think there's no time for a Deal Brexit on 29 March, then those two bets - Leave by 29 March and No Deal on 29 March - are equivalent, and the longer price is the better bet.
  • dotsdots Posts: 615
    AndyJS said:
    Enid Coleslaw!

    And we thought she was dead!

    🙃
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 29,003
    Sean_F said:


    Revoke finishes the Conservatives. No Deal merely hurts them.

    I agree. I think No Deal would win Labour the next election but Revoke would be more long term damaging for the Conservatives. Could be terminal.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 32,402
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_P said:
    Fifty percent of Tory voters favour No Deal.
    Depressing, but I think TSE might be right. The idiots will impasse their way to a damaging outcome opposed by a large majority of the population.
    More Tory voters favour Remain (22%) than May's Deal (20%).

    That goose is cooked.
    Not true as May's Deal is both Remainers and No Dealers second preference.

    Just quoting the Yougov polling, squire.
This discussion has been closed.