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  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Off topic, some pb'ers may like to know my wife has given birth to a beautiful baby girl. 7lb 15Oz.

    Amazing how everything pales into insignificance next to that. We are very happy.

    With three casinos we’re going to have to start calling you Vegas!

    Congratulations! It only gets better from here
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:



    I think that a 30 year recession can be safely discounted.

    Brexit even on the worst terms can NEVER be as bad as the remainers portray it. They have gone to every extreme possible gloomsday and banked it as nailed on, Nothing ever is.

    Since this is all a game of expectation management the promise wont match the result so the "experts" will simply debase their status again.

    I might have thought that after the Osborne doom fiasco someone would have proposed changing the approach, instead theyve doubled down and ramped up the volume.

    crazy.
    Indeed. The bar for no-deal is now so low, that people not starving, dying for want of medicine or rioting in the street will mean it's a success.
    Both of you are, as usual, quite wrong. The public is not expecting trouble, it is discounting all the warnings. Any disruption is going to be a big shock for them:

    http://britainthinks.com/pdfs/Brexit-The-Final-Countdown-Full-Presentation-PDF.pdf

    See page 28.
    What we are seeing in practice is a doubling down of the Project Fear from the original referendum. In 2016 it was Stuart Rose who was caught saying that wages would go up if we left the EU, last week it was the Airbus executive letting slip on TV that the government put her up to warning of job losses if there's no deal.

    People have just switched off to it, and don't think the government will in practice allow a shortage of basic supplies to happen. Agreements to keep ports open and planes flying in the event of no deal have already been made, the assumption is that if we crash out we'll immediately start talking to the EU from a mutual (as opposed to one-sided) standpoint, to resolve quickly any significant obstacles to trade.

    What do you think happens in practice in April if there's no deal?
    Christ knows. But the way that the death cult discount the possibility of serious disruption when the government itself does not and where such Einsteins as Chris Grayling and Matt Hancock are in charge of critical departments illustrates the way in which faith trumps reason.

    If there are avoidable deaths as a result of no-deal Brexit, there will be blood on the hands of all that were willing to accept that outcome.
    You do realise that ministers doing get involved in the detail of policy?

    Their involvement will be “go and plan” and the civil service will get on with it.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Dura_Ace said:

    I've just bought an R35 GTR with two blown turbos if anyone wants to congratulate me.

    Congratulations!

    I have no idea what you have bought, but if it makes you happy.... ;)
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537

    Many thanks to you all for your kind words.

    Her name is Elizabeth, one of the few we both loved and as ardent monarchists and huge fans of HMQ we could think of no better and it suits her perfectly.

    That's fabulous - many congratulations, and a very happy life for her. (No need to acknowledge as all, but we all wish you well.)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,773

    Sandpit said:


    If everyone ate 80% of what they do now, we'd be a fitter and healthier nation

    I completely agree
    Sandpit said:

    ...not starving and rioting.

    Err... many people have become used to stuffing their faces at their slightest whim. Expect them to get very upset when something interferes with it.

    If people did what was good for them we would have no alcoholics, smokers or drug-addicts.
    Sandpit said:

    Maybe it might seem like the end of the world for Tarquin in Hoxton that he can't get avocados for a week or two, but it really isn't.

    It will seem more like the end of the world for Tiffany in Hartlepool that the all-you-can-eat buffet is closed and that the offie has run out of Lambrini.
    Might be the fish and chips that sends Middle England into riots.

    iirc most of the cod is imported.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Anorak said:

    I still have no idea where we're going to end up. That's more worrying than if any one particular outcome were guaranteed.
    Allow me to help....

    No Deal

    Have a nice day :)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Sandpit said:

    Anorak said:

    Sandpit said:

    Chris said:



    Yes, I understand that you don't think there will be any "real" shortages, and I understand that other people think the same.

    What I don't understand is what the basis is for that belief. I just don't see much point in repeated assertions about these things, unless they're accompanied by some kind of reasoning or evidence to back them up.

    To be honest, on a site about betting, I'd expect something a bit less blunt than "I don't think there will be a problem". Something more along the lines of looking at probabilities and consequences.

    Okay, numbers.

    ONS 2017 - 50% of food consumed in the UK is produced in the UK. 30% is imported from the EU and 20% imported from the RoW. 10% of the value of UK food consumption is exported.

    Source: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/food-statistics-pocketbook-2017/food-statistics-in-your-pocket-2017-global-and-uk-supply

    So, if trade in food with the EU stops completely, and we stop exporting, we can cover 80% of current domestic demand without any other changes.

    That's not going to lead to general shortages, as opposed to on specific lines - unless people start panicking.
    If we can only cover 80% of consumption, there will be rioting, looting and widespread malnutrition.

    Now, I don't think it will come to that (it's just not going to happen), but your answer shows a complete lack of understanding of how quickly food gets turned over in a supermarket.
    If everyone ate 80% of what they do now, we'd be a fitter and healthier nation, not starving and rioting.

    The problems will come from people panicking rather than trusting the supply chains to sort themselves out.

    Of course if half the EU food arrived, then we'd be on 95% even before the supermarkets go shopping in the rest of the world.

    There's plenty of risks associated with Brexit, but food shortages really isn't one of them. Maybe it might seem like the end of the world for Tarquin in Hoxton that he can't get avocados for a week or two, but it really isn't.
    Off you go again with your fake "we's". I doubt food supply in Dubai will be significantly affected, other than perhaps that the Marmite and HP Sauce might not be getting through.
  • Anorak said:

    Anorak said:

    Sandpit said:

    Chris said:

    Sandpit said:


    The most likely scenario is that if people continue to shop normally there won't be shortages, but if people start panic buying then the shelves could empty very quickly - so the advise needs to be to continue shopping normally rather than to panic and start hoarding.

    Of course, if there's a genuine risk of widespread food shortages then that's a different scenario that IMO is unlikely - but governments and supermarkets need to be able to plan without the fact of their planning being used to cause further panic.

    Yes, I understand that you don't think there will be any "real" shortages, and I understand that other people think the same.

    What I don't understand is what the basis is for that belief. I just don't see much point in repeated assertions about these things, unless they're accompanied by some kind of reasoning or evidence to back them up.

    To be honest, on a site about betting, I'd expect something a bit less blunt than "I don't think there will be a problem". Something more along the lines of looking at probabilities and consequences.
    Okay, numbers.

    ONS 2017 - 50% of food consumed in the UK is produced in the UK. 30% is imported from the EU and 20% imported from the RoW. 10% of the value of UK food consumption is exported.

    Source: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/food-statistics-pocketbook-2017/food-statistics-in-your-pocket-2017-global-and-uk-supply

    So, if trade in food with the EU stops completely, and we stop exporting, we can cover 80% of current domestic demand without any other changes.

    That's not going to lead to general shortages, as opposed to on specific lines - unless people start panicking.
    If we can only cover 80% of consumption, there will be rioting, looting and widespread malnutrition.

    Now, I don't think it will come to that (it's just not going to happen), but your answer shows a complete lack of understanding of how quickly food gets turned over in a supermarket.
    widespread malnutrition

    were one of the fattest nations anywhere, HMG WANTS us to eat less.

    https://www.nhs.uk/live-well/eat-well/cut-down-on-your-calories/
    I'm going to assume that's tongue in cheek, as selling food shortages as an advantage of Brexit would be, well, batshit insane.
    Obesity in the Gaza strip/ West Bank is similar to that in the UK.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Sandpit said:


    If everyone ate 80% of what they do now, we'd be a fitter and healthier nation

    I completely agree
    Sandpit said:

    ...not starving and rioting.

    Err... many people have become used to stuffing their faces at their slightest whim. Expect them to get very upset when something interferes with it.

    If people did what was good for them we would have no alcoholics, smokers or drug-addicts.
    Sandpit said:

    Maybe it might seem like the end of the world for Tarquin in Hoxton that he can't get avocados for a week or two, but it really isn't.

    It will seem more like the end of the world for Tiffany in Hartlepool that the all-you-can-eat buffet is closed and that the offie has run out of Lambrini.
    Might be the fish and chips that sends Middle England into riots.

    iirc most of the cod is imported.
    Yes. Our British govt exercised their sovereign authority and flogged the rights to one dutch fishing boat that lands 25% of the cod.

    So in Leaver-land, that makes it the EU's fault.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I've just bought an R35 GTR with two blown turbos if anyone wants to congratulate me.

    Two blown turbos, as opposed to two turbo blowers?
    Both completely fucked - more shaft play than Kevin Spacey on Clapham Common. I'm going to put HKS GT800s in it.
    Genuine LOL at your metaphor, my wife now asks what's so funny...

    Cool car the R35, and the GT800s should give it about that many horses.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,773

    Sandpit said:


    If everyone ate 80% of what they do now, we'd be a fitter and healthier nation

    I completely agree
    Sandpit said:

    ...not starving and rioting.

    Err... many people have become used to stuffing their faces at their slightest whim. Expect them to get very upset when something interferes with it.

    If people did what was good for them we would have no alcoholics, smokers or drug-addicts.
    Sandpit said:

    Maybe it might seem like the end of the world for Tarquin in Hoxton that he can't get avocados for a week or two, but it really isn't.

    It will seem more like the end of the world for Tiffany in Hartlepool that the all-you-can-eat buffet is closed and that the offie has run out of Lambrini.
    Might be the fish and chips that sends Middle England into riots.

    iirc most of the cod is imported.
    Yes. Our British govt exercised their sovereign authority and flogged the rights to one dutch fishing boat that lands 25% of the cod.

    So in Leaver-land, that makes it the EU's fault.
    Where do they land it? If it has to come via Dover, then we can expect trouble.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    edited January 2019
    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Anorak said:

    Sandpit said:


    Okay, numbers.

    ONS 2017 - 50% of food consumed in the UK is produced in the UK. 30% is imported from the EU and 20% imported from the RoW. 10% of the value of UK food consumption is exported.

    Source: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/food-statistics-pocketbook-2017/food-statistics-in-your-pocket-2017-global-and-uk-supply

    So, if trade in food with the EU stops completely, and we stop exporting, we can cover 80% of current domestic demand without any other changes.

    That's not going to lead to general shortages, as opposed to on specific lines - unless people start panicking.

    If we can only cover 80% of consumption, there will be rioting, looting and widespread malnutrition.

    Now, I don't think it will come to that (it's just not going to happen), but your answer shows a complete lack of understanding of how quickly food gets turned over in a supermarket.
    If everyone ate 80% of what they do now, we'd be a fitter and healthier nation, not starving and rioting.

    The problems will come from people panicking rather than trusting the supply chains to sort themselves out.

    Of course if half the EU food arrived, then we'd be on 95% even before the supermarkets go shopping in the rest of the world.

    There's plenty of risks associated with Brexit, but food shortages really isn't one of them. Maybe it might seem like the end of the world for Tarquin in Hoxton that he can't get avocados for a week or two, but it really isn't.
    Off you go again with your fake "we's". I doubt food supply in Dubai will be significantly affected, other than perhaps that the Marmite and HP Sauce might not be getting through.
    It's the bacon I'm really worried about - the Danish crap isn't the same.

    I'll be one fewer mouth for the UK to feed on the day we actually leave, doing my personal bit to keep the shortages to a minimum :smiley:
  • Anorak said:

    Anorak said:

    Sandpit said:

    Chris said:

    Sandpit said:


    The most likely scenario is that if people continue to shop normally there won't be shortages, but if people start panic buying then the shelves could empty very quickly - so the advise needs to be to continue shopping normally rather than to panic and start hoarding.

    Of course, if there's a genuine risk of widespread food shortages then that's a different scenario that IMO is unlikely - but governments and supermarkets need to be able to plan without the fact of their planning being used to cause further panic.

    Yes, I understand that you don't think there will be any "real" shortages, and I understand that other people think the same.

    Wlities and consequences.
    Okay, numbers.

    ONS 2017 - 50% of food consumed in the UK is producof UK food consumption is exported.

    Source: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/food-statistics-pocketbook-2017/food-statistics-in-your-pocket-2017-global-and-uk-supply

    So, if trade in food with the EU stops completely, and we stop exporting, we can cover 80% of current domestic demand without any other changes.

    That's not going to lead to general shortages, as opposed to on specific lines - unless people start panicking.
    If we can only cover 80% of consumption, there will be rioting, looting and widespread malnutrition.

    Now, I don't think it will come to that (it's just not going to happen), but your answer shows a complete lack of understanding of how quickly food gets turned over in a supermarket.
    widespread malnutrition

    were one of the fattest nations anywhere, HMG WANTS us to eat less.

    https://www.nhs.uk/live-well/eat-well/cut-down-on-your-calories/
    I'm going to assume that's tongue in cheek, as selling food shortages as an advantage of Brexit would be, well, batshit insane.
    no its simply pointing out that lack of calories will not be a problem.

    Not for Leavers - they're disproportionately likely to be obese.

    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2016/06/30/the-weight-of-brexit-leave-vote-is-higher-in-areas-of-higher-obesity/
    its why I voted out, Leave is my 2019 diet plan

    mind you in that photo you posted the other day your suit was looking a bit tight

    could be some up side for you too
    My other half has been stockpiling chocolate. He's worried that trade deal with Ghana might not come through.
    At last a tangible unequivocal benefit of Brexit. We should all lose weight.

    Terrific.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    ... It's a downmarket babycham.

    Is that actually possible? :open_mouth:
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,257

    Mr. kinabalu, in your example the gift of a nice place to live would come with a fee, and the rights of your parents to set house rules. It also remains to be seen whether living without those constraints would enable you to acquire a better home and actually be able to live how one wants to.

    Even if the parents did not set the house rules, or take any money, there could be the psychological drag of feeling smothered and thus somewhat diminished.

    We thus arrive at the crux of the matter. Or question rather.

    For the people who say that membership of the EU involves an unacceptable loss of 'sovereignty', is this ... (i) what they think? ... or (ii) what they feel?

    IMO it is a lot of (ii) and very little (i).

    And, yes, ditto for me. the 'IMO' there is what I feel rather than what I think.

    Because leaving the EU is such an exotic call that I don't know what to think.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    ... It's a downmarket babycham.

    Is that actually possible? :open_mouth:
    Have you tasted lambrini?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    Sandpit said:


    If everyone ate 80% of what they do now, we'd be a fitter and healthier nation

    I completely agree
    Sandpit said:

    ...not starving and rioting.

    Err... many people have become used to stuffing their faces at their slightest whim. Expect them to get very upset when something interferes with it.

    If people did what was good for them we would have no alcoholics, smokers or drug-addicts.
    Sandpit said:

    Maybe it might seem like the end of the world for Tarquin in Hoxton that he can't get avocados for a week or two, but it really isn't.

    It will seem more like the end of the world for Tiffany in Hartlepool that the all-you-can-eat buffet is closed and that the offie has run out of Lambrini.
    Might be the fish and chips that sends Middle England into riots.

    iirc most of the cod is imported.
    Yes, most of the fish that goes across the counter of fish & chip shops is imported, mostly from the EU, and most of our catch exported, much to the EU.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,727

    kinabalu said:

    On trade deals, as in many aspects of life, there is a value in fending for oneself rather than relying on others. OK, so it might take many years of effort and focus to end up with a set of trade deals that are not as good as those we had to start with but we will have done them ourselves.

    I can buy a toaster in Tescos for a few quid. It is made thanks to the expertise of others. Alternatively I can spend thousands of pounds and hundreds of hours building my own, less efficient version

    http://www.thomasthwaites.com/the-toaster-project/

    The reason we are were we are is because we cooperate and specialise. I am amazed by this attitude, which seems more prevalent on the right, that we must be self-reliant and depend on others less and do more stuff for ourselves.

    Sometimes I wish they would live by that attitude. The internet would quieten down for a bit whilst they start mining the ores needed to build their own silicon chip furnaces to allow construction of computers to allow them to access the internet.
    De-lurking again to fix this horrible wrong: chips are made in foundries, but not in furnaces. Instead of heat, you need a really clean light source - and in future ones extreme UV light. Oh, and lots of different acids and chemicals to etch and clean the wafers.

    If they want a home project, they're much more likely to do something like this:
    http://www.megaprocessor.com/index.html
    Of course, there's bit of a problem with the room required. ;)

    (initiate lurking mode)
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537
    Anorak said:

    I still have no idea where we're going to end up. That's more worrying than if any one particular outcome were guaranteed.
    Yes, a lot of businesses feel that, I think - I remember talking to the CEO of Novartis (by some measures the largest pharma company in the world), and asking what made him want to invest in a country. He said good education levels and stability. EVERYTHING else - level of taxes, strictness of regulation, competition - could be given an estimated cost tag and allowed for. But with uncertainty all that went out of the window and even an attractive proposition was not worth considering because it could change before the investment was complete. (He also said that a lack of well-educated workforce was a deal-breaker for anything other than a basic production/distribution plant.)

    Investing in Britain at the moment for anything relating to imports or exports is a complete gamble.
  • Sean_F said:

    Anorak said:

    And I see your true colors
    Shining through
    I see your true colors
    And that's why I love hate you...
    https://twitter.com/Jim_Cornelius/status/1089622973168922626

    What do people expect with Tommy Yaxley-Lennon running the party now.
    I'll just have to bear their displeasure at my "treason" as well as I can.
    Clearly supporting the stated foreign policy aims of Vladimir Putin and receiving his help indirectly and possibly directly is not treacherous according to those in UKIP/BNP.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited January 2019
    Cyclefree said:

    On Pat Val, some thoughts:-

    1. There will be much more to come out. The story so far doesn’t quite make sense to me. Made up refurbishment invoices suggests someone was creaming off money or possible money laundering style activities. That is not the sort of stuff you do to make something look more profitable than it is but it may be if you’re trying to hide unprofitability. But if so, how often can you do it? Stores don’t get refurbished every week.
    [snip]

    I agree it doesn't make sense. If the fraud was based on fake invoices (made-up refurbishments etc), then the company's cash position as stated in the accounts would still have accurately reflected the cash in the bank.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,257

    Many thanks to you all for your kind words.

    Her name is Elizabeth, one of the few we both loved and as ardent monarchists and huge fans of HMQ we could think of no better and it suits her perfectly.

    Hats off! Try and keep her off instagram for a few months at least.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    Graham Brady, Chances Fadey.

    (also, congratulations CR!)
  • BBC news top story has a picture of boris. Maybe just a bad picture, but in it he looks seriously aged all of a sudden.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537
    Things seem to have stabilised in Germany - the CDU marginally down, SPD down sharply, Greens doubled, nothing else much happening.

    http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    ... It's a downmarket babycham.

    Is that actually possible? :open_mouth:
    Have you tasted lambrini?
    As students, our local pizza place offered a bottle of Lambrini or Coke with every large pizza (on a Monday night, I think). As students, repeat students, we went with the coke every time*. Lambrini is that bad.

    *To be topped up with cash-and-carry generic vodka.
  • Anorak said:

    I still have no idea where we're going to end up. That's more worrying than if any one particular outcome were guaranteed.
    Yes, a lot of businesses feel that, I think - I remember talking to the CEO of Novartis (by some measures the largest pharma company in the world), and asking what made him want to invest in a country. He said good education levels and stability. EVERYTHING else - level of taxes, strictness of regulation, competition - could be given an estimated cost tag and allowed for. But with uncertainty all that went out of the window and even an attractive proposition was not worth considering because it could change before the investment was complete. (He also said that a lack of well-educated workforce was a deal-breaker for anything other than a basic production/distribution plant.)

    Investing in Britain at the moment for anything relating to imports or exports is a complete gamble.
    Agreed up to a point. Most CEOs I have spoken to would not see the prospect of your friend Corbyn as something "that could be allowed for". Many if not all see him as a bigger concern than Brexit. The combination of the two makes Britain something of a basket case.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited January 2019
    Cyclefree said:

    On Pat Val, some thoughts:-

    1. There will be much more to come out. The story so far doesn’t quite make sense to me. Made up refurbishment invoices suggests someone was creaming off money or possible money laundering style activities. That is not the sort of stuff you do to make something look more profitable than it is but it may be if you’re trying to hide unprofitability. But if so, how often can you do it? Stores don’t get refurbished every week.

    2. You cannot manage by looking at one or two sources of information - your accounts or spreadsheets. You need to visit shops and compare with your rivals and with what is happening in the market and the economy generally. You need to sense check and look at what is often hiding in plain sight in front of you. This is something that people at the top of organisations, often very clever people are often very bad at doing. Asking basic, obvious questions is rarer than it should be.

    3. If things are going well, that is what you planned for and expected, it is very easy to see only what confirms what you want to be true and ignore the rest. Lots of people had an interest in Valerie doing welll and congratulating themselves for being part of a seeming success story. That can make it very difficult for people to admit to problems or for potential whistleblowers to speak up. Or for others to respond to concerns eg the questions HMRC raised about forged documents.

    4. Auditors are not investigators. They check things. They don’t ask questions or look for oddities. Companies often assume auditors are the same as investigators and can do the same job. They aren’t and can’t.

    5. The human element - what went wrong was down to individuals. At the heart of this story will be people who did the wrong thing and others who failed to do the right thing and others who did not understand or manage effectively the people they hired and employed so that a number of people ending up behaving badly and others stood by and let them get away with it.

    All good points and I would not argue with any of them. All I would say is that over the years, people have become lazier more trusting on what it says on screens in front of them rather than what they see in front of them. It is so much easier to push a button to get the answers you want rather than to suffer the inconvenience of getting off your backside and going somewhere and digging in-depth to find out what is going on and maybe getting answers you did not want to face.

    I think it is a pervasive thing and happening across society in general. I wonder what other computer generated fantasies are being accepted as facts in other businesses and enterprises. What will happen when reality diverges sufficiently that it cannot be ignored?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,134
    edited January 2019
    Anorak said:

    ... It's a downmarket babycham.

    Is that actually possible? :open_mouth:
    Have you tasted lambrini?
    As students, our local pizza place offered a bottle of Lambrini or Coke with every large pizza (on a Monday night, I think). As students, repeat students, we went with the coke every time*. Lambrini is that bad.

    *To be topped up with cash-and-carry generic vodka.
    Lambrini, for those that think boxed wine is for special occasions and probably put milk in first when making tea...
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    kinabalu said:

    On trade deals, as in many aspects of life, there is a value in fending for oneself rather than relying on others. OK, so it might take many years of effort and focus to end up with a set of trade deals that are not as good as those we had to start with but we will have done them ourselves.

    I can buy a toaster in Tescos for a few quid. It is made thanks to the expertise of others. Alternatively I can spend thousands of pounds and hundreds of hours building my own, less efficient version

    http://www.thomasthwaites.com/the-toaster-project/

    The reason we are were we are is because we cooperate and specialise. I am amazed by this attitude, which seems more prevalent on the right, that we must be self-reliant and depend on others less and do more stuff for ourselves.

    Sometimes I wish they would live by that attitude. The internet would quieten down for a bit whilst they start mining the ores needed to build their own silicon chip furnaces to allow construction of computers to allow them to access the internet.
    De-lurking again to fix this horrible wrong: chips are made in foundries, but not in furnaces. Instead of heat, you need a really clean light source - and in future ones extreme UV light. Oh, and lots of different acids and chemicals to etch and clean the wafers.

    If they want a home project, they're much more likely to do something like this:
    http://www.megaprocessor.com/index.html
    Of course, there's bit of a problem with the room required. ;)

    (initiate lurking mode)
    No need to build a toaster. A toasting fork and an open fire and you can have all the delicious toast you want.

    And wouldn’t the world be a nicer place if we wrote elegant notes to each other on paper with pens and ink in italic handwriting?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    BBC news top story has a picture of boris. Maybe just a bad picture, but in it he looks seriously aged all of a sudden.


    He’s overweight, balding, going through a divorce and turning out to be a professional failure. Is it a surprise?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Sandpit said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I've just bought an R35 GTR with two blown turbos if anyone wants to congratulate me.

    Two blown turbos, as opposed to two turbo blowers?
    Both completely fucked - more shaft play than Kevin Spacey on Clapham Common. I'm going to put HKS GT800s in it.
    Genuine LOL at your metaphor, my wife now asks what's so funny...

    Cool car the R35, and the GT800s should give it about that many horses.
    It's my new track car. I've had to come to terms with the fact that 996 values are following 993s and are on the way up so it's stupid to risk destroying it. I've embraced the spirit of Brexit and Global Britain by going Japanese and buying a clapped R35,
  • BBC news top story has a picture of boris. Maybe just a bad picture, but in it he looks seriously aged all of a sudden.

    So much lying and duplicitousness would take its toll on anyone. It must be a real effort to remember which fibs he has told to whomever, and how not to contradict what one has previously said. Very stressful way to run your life.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Cyclefree said:

    kinabalu said:

    On trade deals, as in many aspects of life, there is a value in fending for oneself rather than relying on others. OK, so it might take many years of effort and focus to end up with a set of trade deals that are not as good as those we had to start with but we will have done them ourselves.

    I can buy a toaster in Tescos for a few quid. It is made thanks to the expertise of others. Alternatively I can spend thousands of pounds and hundreds of hours building my own, less efficient version

    http://www.thomasthwaites.com/the-toaster-project/

    The reason we are were we are is because we cooperate and specialise. I am amazed by this attitude, which seems more prevalent on the right, that we must be self-reliant and depend on others less and do more stuff for ourselves.

    Sometimes I wish they would live by that attitude. The internet would quieten down for a bit whilst they start mining the ores needed to build their own silicon chip furnaces to allow construction of computers to allow them to access the internet.
    De-lurking again to fix this horrible wrong: chips are made in foundries, but not in furnaces. Instead of heat, you need a really clean light source - and in future ones extreme UV light. Oh, and lots of different acids and chemicals to etch and clean the wafers.

    If they want a home project, they're much more likely to do something like this:
    http://www.megaprocessor.com/index.html
    Of course, there's bit of a problem with the room required. ;)

    (initiate lurking mode)
    No need to build a toaster. A toasting fork and an open fire and you can have all the delicious toast you want.

    And wouldn’t the world be a nicer place if we wrote elegant notes to each other on paper with pens and ink in italic handwriting?
    Quills please. And the ink to be made by waiting for autumn for some berries to crush and strain. The wait for autumn can be passed by initiating the Strainer Project so that you do not have to stoop to act of buying a strainer and thus losing all self-respect!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    edited January 2019

    Cyclefree said:

    On Pat Val, some thoughts:-

    1. There will be much more to come out. The story so far doesn’t quite make sense to me. Made up refurbishment invoices suggests someone was creaming off money or possible money laundering style activities. That is not the sort of stuff you do to make something look more profitable than it is but it may be if you’re trying to hide unprofitability. But if so, how often can you do it? Stores don’t get refurbished every week.
    [snip]

    I agree it doesn't make sense. If the fraud was based on fake invoices (made-up refurbishments etc), then the company's cash position as stated in the accounts would still have accurately reflected the cash in the bank.
    Yes, this is precisely how it works with fake invoice fraud. Cash in the bank should be absolubtely as stated - and suggests a VERY severe audit failure, the fraud as you've detailed can be more difficult to spot and isn't neccesarily something an auditor would pick up (The company's statements would still be accurate !)
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,752
    Going back to betting for a moment, I am still struggling to make sense of Betfair's implied probabilities.

    Deal not to pass Commons by 29 March: 65%
    No Deal on 29 March: 14%
    Referendum this year: 28%

    Apparently that leaves 23% covering revocation by 29 March or an extension without the deal having passed the Commons and without a referendum.

    It seems the betting markets are allowing for a substantial probability of the EU allowing an extension for no particular reason (or perhaps for a general election, but there's no Betfair market for a general election being called before 29 March). Do people think that's right?
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Cyclefree said:

    kinabalu said:

    On trade deals, as in many aspects of life, there is a value in fending for oneself rather than relying on others. OK, so it might take many years of effort and focus to end up with a set of trade deals that are not as good as those we had to start with but we will have done them ourselves.

    I can buy a toaster in Tescos for a few quid. It is made thanks to the expertise of others. Alternatively I can spend thousands of pounds and hundreds of hours building my own, less efficient version

    http://www.thomasthwaites.com/the-toaster-project/

    The reason we are were we are is because we cooperate and specialise. I am amazed by this attitude, which seems more prevalent on the right, that we must be self-reliant and depend on others less and do more stuff for ourselves.

    Sometimes I wish they would live by that attitude. The internet would quieten down for a bit whilst they start mining the ores needed to build their own silicon chip furnaces to allow construction of computers to allow them to access the internet.
    De-lurking again to fix this horrible wrong: chips are made in foundries, but not in furnaces. Instead of heat, you need a really clean light source - and in future ones extreme UV light. Oh, and lots of different acids and chemicals to etch and clean the wafers.

    If they want a home project, they're much more likely to do something like this:
    http://www.megaprocessor.com/index.html
    Of course, there's bit of a problem with the room required. ;)

    (initiate lurking mode)
    No need to build a toaster. A toasting fork and an open fire and you can have all the delicious toast you want.
    Very good. All that effort could have been saved if someone had given him a pile of wood containing at least one sharp stick.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537
    Charles said:

    <

    You do realise that ministers doing get involved in the detail of policy?

    Their involvement will be “go and plan” and the civil service will get on with it.

    I think you meant to say "don't get involved"? If so, I think you're sort of mistaken on an issue like this. The civil service will assess and set out the choices, not just for the main direction but also the details. Ministers will feel the need to understand the choices and make some quite detailed decisions. (My experience here is partly from PPSing in two departments - a bag-carrier, but a vlose view of what was happening - and partly as a lobbyist for detailed policy in one department.)
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Cyclefree said:

    kinabalu said:

    On trade deals, as in many aspects of life, there is a value in fending for oneself rather than relying on others. OK, so it might take many years of effort and focus to end up with a set of trade deals that are not as good as those we had to start with but we will have done them ourselves.

    I can buy a toaster in Tescos for a few quid. It is made thanks to the expertise of others. Alternatively I can spend thousands of pounds and hundreds of hours building my own, less efficient version

    http://www.thomasthwaites.com/the-toaster-project/

    The reason we are were we are is because we cooperate and specialise. I am amazed by this attitude, which seems more prevalent on the right, that we must be self-reliant and depend on others less and do more stuff for ourselves.

    Sometimes I wish they would live by that attitude. The internet would quieten down for a bit whilst they start mining the ores needed to build their own silicon chip furnaces to allow construction of computers to allow them to access the internet.
    De-lurking again to fix this horrible wrong: chips are made in foundries, but not in furnaces. Instead of heat, you need a really clean light source - and in future ones extreme UV light. Oh, and lots of different acids and chemicals to etch and clean the wafers.

    If they want a home project, they're much more likely to do something like this:
    http://www.megaprocessor.com/index.html
    Of course, there's bit of a problem with the room required. ;)

    (initiate lurking mode)
    No need to build a toaster. A toasting fork and an open fire and you can have all the delicious toast you want.

    And wouldn’t the world be a nicer place if we wrote elegant notes to each other on paper with pens and ink in italic handwriting?
    Or an Aga /middleclass
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited January 2019

    De-lurking again to fix this horrible wrong: chips are made in foundries, but not in furnaces. Instead of heat, you need a really clean light source - and in future ones extreme UV light. Oh, and lots of different acids and chemicals to etch and clean the wafers.

    If they want a home project, they're much more likely to do something like this:
    http://www.megaprocessor.com/index.html
    Of course, there's bit of a problem with the room required. ;)

    (initiate lurking mode)

    Furnaces.. foundries.... mere word play.

    [Waves hand airly...] Back to wherever you lurk!!!!

    ;)
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    Things seem to have stabilised in Germany - the CDU marginally down, SPD down sharply, Greens doubled, nothing else much happening.

    http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

    the national figures have certainly stabilised with AKK getting a bit of a bounce if anything

    the interest will move now to the East West split where voting patterns have diverged. There was a poll at the weekend which showed only 40% of Ossis thought democracy was the best form of government. Scary.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    Cyclefree said:

    On Pat Val, some thoughts:-

    1. There will be much more to come out. The story so far doesn’t quite make sense to me. Made up refurbishment invoices suggests someone was creaming off money or possible money laundering style activities.

    2. You cannot manage by looking at one or two sources of information - your accounts or spreadsheets. You need to visit shops and compare with your rivals and with what is happening in the market and the economy generally. You need to sense check and look at what is often hiding in plain sight in front of you. This is something that people at the top of organisations, often very clever people are often very bad at doing. Asking basic, obvious questions is rarer than it should be.

    3. If things are going well, that is what you planned for and expected, it is very easy to see only what confirms what you want to be true and ignore the rest. Lots of people had an interest in Valerie doing welll and congratulating themselves for being part of a seeming success story. That can make it very difficult for people to admit to problems or for potential whistleblowers to speak up. Or for others to respond to concerns eg the questions HMRC raised about forged documents.

    4. Auditors are not investigators. They check things. They don’t ask questions or look for oddities. Companies often assume auditors are the same as investigators and can do the same job. They aren’t and can’t.

    5. The human element - what went wrong was down to individuals. At the heart of this story will be people who did the wrong thing and others who failed to do the right thing and others who did not understand or manage effectively the people they hired and employed so that a number of people ending up behaving badly and others stood by and let them get away with it.

    All good points and I would not argue with any of them. All I would say is that over the years, people have become lazier more trusting on what it says on screens in front of them rather than what they see in front of them. It is so much easier to push a button to get the answers you want rather than to suffer the inconvenience of getting off your backside and going somewhere and digging in-depth to find out what is going on and maybe getting answers you did not want to face.

    I think it is a pervasive thing and happening across society in general. I wonder what other computer generated fantasies are being accepted as facts in other businesses and enterprises. What will happen when reality diverges sufficiently that it cannot be ignored?
    Curiosity is a much undervalued virtue.

    The story of the little boy and the Emperor’s new clothes is a fable that explains much about modern life.

  • Cyclefree said:

    kinabalu said:

    On trade deals, as in many aspects of life, there is a value in fending for oneself rather than relying on others. OK, so it might take many years of effort and focus to end up with a set of trade deals that are not as good as those we had to start with but we will have done them ourselves.

    I can buy a toaster in Tescos for a few quid. It is made thanks to the expertise of others. Alternatively I can spend thousands of pounds and hundreds of hours building my own, less efficient version

    http://www.thomasthwaites.com/the-toaster-project/

    The reason we are were we are is because we cooperate and specialise. I am amazed by this attitude, which seems more prevalent on the right, that we must be self-reliant and depend on others less and do more stuff for ourselves.

    Sometimes I wish they would live by that attitude. The internet would quieten down for a bit whilst they start mining the ores needed to build their own silicon chip furnaces to allow construction of computers to allow them to access the internet.
    De-lurking again to fix this horrible wrong: chips are made in foundries, but not in furnaces. Instead of heat, you need a really clean light source - and in future ones extreme UV light. Oh, and lots of different acids and chemicals to etch and clean the wafers.

    If they want a home project, they're much more likely to do something like this:
    http://www.megaprocessor.com/index.html
    Of course, there's bit of a problem with the room required. ;)

    (initiate lurking mode)
    No need to build a toaster. A toasting fork and an open fire and you can have all the delicious toast you want.

    And wouldn’t the world be a nicer place if we wrote elegant notes to each other on paper with pens and ink in italic handwriting?
    Or an Aga /middleclass
    A quill would surely be more appropriate for those in favour of Brexit. And it damn well better be from a British bird, not some damned migrant.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    ... It's a downmarket babycham.

    Is that actually possible? :open_mouth:
    Have you tasted lambrini?
    Once. Fortunately, the wall was easy to repaint.

    I now keep a tasting bucket on hand for such experiments :D

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    Many thanks to you all for your kind words.

    Her name is Elizabeth, one of the few we both loved and as ardent monarchists and huge fans of HMQ we could think of no better and it suits her perfectly.

    Many congrats. Best wishes to you, your partner and your brand new mini casino.
  • Mr Meeks, AGA is originally a Swedish invention, and indeed mean "oven" in Swedish. It therefore does not qualify for those people who believe in the Brexit religion as it originates from the damn foreigners.
  • Cyclefree said:

    kinabalu said:

    On trade deals, as in many aspects of life, there is a value in fending for oneself rather than relying on others. OK, so it might take many years of effort and focus to end up with a set of trade deals that are not as good as those we had to start with but we will have done them ourselves.

    I can buy a toaster in Tescos for a few quid. It is made thanks to the expertise of others. Alternatively I can spend thousands of pounds and hundreds of hours building my own, less efficient version

    http://www.thomasthwaites.com/the-toaster-project/

    The reason we are were we are is because we cooperate and specialise. I am amazed by this attitude, which seems more prevalent on the right, that we must be self-reliant and depend on others less and do more stuff for ourselves.

    Sometimes I wish they would live by that attitude. The internet would quieten down for a bit whilst they start mining the ores needed to build their own silicon chip furnaces to allow construction of computers to allow them to access the internet.
    De-lurking again to fix this horrible wrong: chips are made in foundries, but not in furnaces. Instead of heat, you need a really clean light source - and in future ones extreme UV light. Oh, and lots of different acids and chemicals to etch and clean the wafers.

    If they want a home project, they're much more likely to do something like this:
    http://www.megaprocessor.com/index.html
    Of course, there's bit of a problem with the room required. ;)

    (initiate lurking mode)
    No need to build a toaster. A toasting fork and an open fire and you can have all the delicious toast you want.

    And wouldn’t the world be a nicer place if we wrote elegant notes to each other on paper with pens and ink in italic handwriting?
    Or an Aga /middleclass
    A quill would surely be more appropriate for those in favour of Brexit. And it damn well better be from a British bird, not some damned migrant.
    Sorry just realised Beverley had beaten me to the quill suggestion!
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    I think there's a killing to be made investing in UK-manufactured vitamin pills.
  • Anorak said:

    I think there's a killing to be made investing in UK-manufactured vitamin pills.
    How long before Mark Francois starts suggesting we can all "Dig For Victory/Brexit". Fuck business, fuck foreigners, get an allotment.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    How long before Mark Francois starts suggesting we can all "Dig For Victory/Brexit". Fuck business, fuck foreigners, get an allotment.

    Another policy win for Corbyn, courtesy of the ERG
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    Clearly the solution is being in the customs union to keep goods flowing. Screw the unicorn of 'our own trade deals'.
  • Anorak said:

    I think there's a killing to be made investing in UK-manufactured vitamin pills.
    How long before Mark Francois starts suggesting we can all "Dig For Victory/Brexit". Fuck business, fuck foreigners, get an allotment.
    Corbyn would vote for that and the Green Party.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Anorak said:

    I think there's a killing to be made investing in UK-manufactured vitamin pills.
    How long before Mark Francois starts suggesting we can all "Dig For Victory/Brexit". Fuck business, fuck foreigners, get an allotment.
    With a name like "Francois", surely we can deport him?
  • Scott_P said:

    How long before Mark Francois starts suggesting we can all "Dig For Victory/Brexit". Fuck business, fuck foreigners, get an allotment.

    Another policy win for Corbyn, courtesy of the ERG
    I didn’t know jezza was proposing allotments for all?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,257

    I can buy a toaster in Tescos for a few quid. It is made thanks to the expertise of others. Alternatively I can spend thousands of pounds and hundreds of hours building my own, less efficient version

    http://www.thomasthwaites.com/the-toaster-project/

    The reason we are were we are is because we cooperate and specialise. I am amazed by this attitude, which seems more prevalent on the right, that we must be self-reliant and depend on others less and do more stuff for ourselves.

    Sometimes I wish they would live by that attitude. The internet would quieten down for a bit whilst they start mining the ores needed to build their own silicon chip furnaces to allow construction of computers to allow them to access the internet.

    I agree with you, but I like to get into the heads of those who think otherwise - as in empathize, I mean, not annoy and irritate them.

    And this idea - fending for ourselves rather than being nannied around by the EU - we are going to make our own bed and damn well lie in it - I sense is a powerful driver of Leave sentiment.

    It comes with a belief in British exceptionalism, i.e. that free of the EU shackles, or indeed any shackles, we are the sort of people who will soar high - and if we don't, we are also the sort of tough nut stoics who can not only cope with a bit of hardship but will thoroughly enjoy doing so (as long as it is white european hardship not the other variety).
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
    edited January 2019
    and yet we survived last year when the rain in the first half stopped access to fields in Spain and there was the great courgette shortage. Later in the year drought hit our own farmers and yields plummeted. Im sure well survive since behind it all we throw out something like 30% of all the fresh food we buy. People have been campaigning aginst food waste for years to no great effect

    45% of all salads bought get thrown away uneaten !

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Food_waste_in_the_United_Kingdom
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Anorak said:

    I think there's a killing to be made investing in UK-manufactured vitamin pills.
    Ignore them all. They are only experts and thus have no idea what they are talking about.
  • Scott_P said:

    How long before Mark Francois starts suggesting we can all "Dig For Victory/Brexit". Fuck business, fuck foreigners, get an allotment.

    Another policy win for Corbyn, courtesy of the ERG
    It is interesting how the ERG does seem to be working for Corbyn. It is similar to the topsy-turvy world where right wingers who claim to be patriots and call other people traitors are actually doing the bidding of Putin.
  • Anorak said:

    I think there's a killing to be made investing in UK-manufactured vitamin pills.
    How long before Mark Francois starts suggesting we can all "Dig For Victory/Brexit". Fuck business, fuck foreigners, get an allotment.
    With a name like "Francois", surely we can deport him?
    I though that. Sounds a bit of a frog, by jingo!

  • Lettuce eating surrender monkeys.
  • Looks as if there is a possibilty that non of the amendments tomorrow will pass

    Downing Street saying they recognise the backstop has to change and JRM has just gone into no 10

    Seems few if any want to compromise their positions as we head to no deal

    If it happens all 498 mps who voted for A50 have the responsibilty
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited January 2019

    Mr Meeks, AGA is originally a Swedish invention, and indeed mean "oven" in Swedish. It therefore does not qualify for those people who believe in the Brexit religion as it originates from the damn foreigners.

    I totally agree. Dig a hole in the back garden, throw some damp twigs in and light a fire over which we can boil a pot of oats. Potatoes, tomatoes and turnips are all of foreign origin and thus cannot be eaten by the pure!

    [Odd fact - the tomato was unknown in Europe before the 16th Century. How did the Italians manage?]
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Anorak said:

    I think there's a killing to be made investing in UK-manufactured vitamin pills.
    How long before Mark Francois starts suggesting we can all "Dig For Victory/Brexit". Fuck business, fuck foreigners, get an allotment.
    With a name like "Francois", surely we can deport him?
    I though that. Sounds a bit of a frog, by jingo!
    Definitely not a "sound" chap! A wrong-un!!
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537

    Clearly the solution is being in the customs union to keep goods flowing. Screw the unicorn of 'our own trade deals'.

    +1
  • The proportion of those items which are imported must be even higher in early April, before many UK crops are ready.
  • Scott_P said:
    Wollaston says parliament should not accept the Brady amendment because it is in conflict with the Withdrawal Agreement. Does she think that the UK is bound by the WA just because the EU accepts it?
  • Cyclefree said:

    On Pat Val, some thoughts:-

    1. There will be much more to come out. The story so far doesn’t quite make sense to me. Made up refurbishment invoices suggests someone was creaming off money or possible money laundering style activities. That is not the sort of stuff you do to make something look more profitable than it is but it may be if you’re trying to hide unprofitability. But if so, how often can you do it? Stores don’t get refurbished every week.

    2. You cannot manage by looking at one or two sources of information - your accounts or spreadsheets. You need to visit shops and compare with your rivals and with what is happening in the market and the economy generally. You need to sense check and look at what is often hiding in plain sight in front of you. This is something that people at the top of organisations, often very clever people are often very bad at doing. Asking basic, obvious questions is rarer than it should be.

    3. If things are going well, that is what you planned for and expected, it is very easy to see only what confirms what you want to be true and ignore the rest. Lots of people had an interest in Valerie doing welll and congratulating themselves for being part of a seeming success story. That can make it very difficult for people to admit to problems or for potential whistleblowers to speak up. Or for others to respond to concerns eg the questions HMRC raised about forged documents.

    4. Auditors are not investigators. They check things. They don’t ask questions or look for oddities. Companies often assume auditors are the same as investigators and can do the same job. They aren’t and can’t.

    5. The human element - what went wrong was down to individuals. At the heart of this story will be people who did the wrong thing and others who failed to do the right thing and others who did not understand or manage effectively the people they hired and employed so that a number of people ending up behaving badly and others stood by and let them get away with it.

    Good summary, but on point 4, can I ask (genuinely) what an auditor is actually for?

    BTW, when a company suddenly hits the headlines (Carillion, Pat Val - which in reality means RCP) and is in trouble, I check the calibre of the board. You'd be amazed at how often there is a lack of diversity at the top (gender, ethnicity, etc). This isn't just a PC observation: if you hire people who are not in your natural network, they will challenge your most basic assumptions and help you spot your, er, blind spots. Unfortunately, most companies that have had success are more likely to have a yes-man culture (gender deliberate) that chimes completely with point 5.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/annapowers/2018/06/27/a-study-finds-that-diverse-companies-produce-19-more-revenue/
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Cyclefree said:

    kinabalu said:

    On trade deals, as in many aspects of life, there is a value in fending for oneself rather than relying on others. OK, so it might take many years of effort and focus to end up with a set of trade deals that are not as good as those we had to start with but we will have done them ourselves.

    I can buy a toaster in Tescos for a few quid. It is made thanks to the expertise of others. Alternatively I can spend thousands of pounds and hundreds of hours building my own, less efficient version

    http://www.thomasthwaites.com/the-toaster-project/

    The reason we are were we are is because we cooperate and specialise. I am amazed by this attitude, which seems more prevalent on the right, that we must be self-reliant and depend on others less and do more stuff for ourselves.

    Sometimes I wish they would live by that attitude. The internet would quieten down for a bit whilst they start mining the ores needed to build their own silicon chip furnaces to allow construction of computers to allow them to access the internet.
    De-lurking again to fix this horrible wrong: chips are made in foundries, but not in furnaces. Instead of heat, you need a really clean light source - and in future ones extreme UV light. Oh, and lots of different acids and chemicals to etch and clean the wafers.

    If they want a home project, they're much more likely to do something like this:
    http://www.megaprocessor.com/index.html
    Of course, there's bit of a problem with the room required. ;)

    (initiate lurking mode)
    No need to build a toaster. A toasting fork and an open fire and you can have all the delicious toast you want.

    And wouldn’t the world be a nicer place if we wrote elegant notes to each other on paper with pens and ink in italic handwriting?
    Or an Aga /middleclass
    A quill would surely be more appropriate for those in favour of Brexit. And it damn well better be from a British bird, not some damned migrant.
    Sorry just realised Beverley had beaten me to the quill suggestion!
    :) True, but I forgot to specify the Britishness of the bird!
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    The proportion of those items which are imported must be even higher in early April, before many UK crops are ready.
    well just stop throwing half of them away help the BoP too :-)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mrs C, tomatoes were considered unhealthy (in England) in the 16th century.
  • The proportion of those items which are imported must be even higher in early April, before many UK crops are ready.
    well just stop throwing half of them away help the BoP too :-)
    We'll be throwing away more if there are delays in transport.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914

    Scott_P said:
    Wollaston says parliament should not accept the Brady amendment because it is in conflict with the Withdrawal Agreement. Does she think that the UK is bound by the WA just because the EU accepts it?
    The clues in the word 'Agreement'.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited January 2019
    Chris said:

    Going back to betting for a moment, I am still struggling to make sense of Betfair's implied probabilities.

    Deal not to pass Commons by 29 March: 65%
    No Deal on 29 March: 14%
    Referendum this year: 28%

    Apparently that leaves 23% covering revocation by 29 March or an extension without the deal having passed the Commons and without a referendum.

    It seems the betting markets are allowing for a substantial probability of the EU allowing an extension for no particular reason (or perhaps for a general election, but there's no Betfair market for a general election being called before 29 March). Do people think that's right?

    I'd have the referendum a shade higher but I don't think that's *too* far off. Making 23% with numbers out of bum (not an offer to bet):
    * Extension for GE: 10%
    * Extension for new negotiation ditching some of TMay's other red lines: 5%
    * Extension for general faffing - I know they said they wouldn't allow it but see my post way up-thread for why I still think they might: 5%
    * Extension for black-swan / left-field reason - Death of monarch, suicide of PM, Mueller implicates Farage and brings referendum into question requiring new investigation etc: 3%
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    The proportion of those items which are imported must be even higher in early April, before many UK crops are ready.
    Presumably most Leavers don't eat fresh fruit and vegetables, so they won't be affected?
  • Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    On Pat Val, some thoughts:-

    1. There will be much more to come out. The story so far doesn’t quite make sense to me. Made up refurbishment invoices suggests someone was creaming off money or possible money laundering style activities.

    2. You cannot manage by looking at one or two sources oare often very bad at doing. Asking basic, obvious questions is rarer than it should be.

    3. If things are going well, that is what you planned for and expected, it is very easy to see only what confirms what you want to be true and ignore the rest. Lots of people had an interest in Valerie doing welll and congratulating themselves for being part of a seeming success story. That can make it very difficult for people to admit to problems or for potential whistleblowers to speak up. Or for others to respond to concerns eg the questions HMRC raised about forged documents.

    4. Auditors are not investigators. They check things. They don’t ask questions or look for oddities. Companies often assume auditors are the same as investigators and can do the same job. They aren’t and can’t.

    5. The human element - what went wrong was down to indi

    All good points and I would not argue with any of them. All I would say is that over the years, people have become lazier more trusting on what it says on screens in front of them rather than what they see in front of them. It is so much easier to push a button to get the answers you want rather than to suffer the inconvenience of getting off your backside and going somewhere and digging in-depth to find out what is going on and maybe getting answers you did not want to face.

    I think it is a pervasive thing and happening across society in general. I wonder what other computer generated fantasies are being accepted as facts in other businesses and enterprises. What will happen when reality diverges sufficiently that it cannot be ignored?
    Curiosity is a much undervalued virtue.

    The story of the little boy and the Emperor’s new clothes is a fable that explains much about modern life.

    It shames me to recall that I once worked for a company that was effectively insolvent. We managed to sell it at a scandalously high price to a cash rich water company. The due diligence was perfectly thorough, orthodox and intense. But none of the visiting accountants and consultants thought to ask basic common sense questions. Had they asked, for example, when we last paid the milkman the answer would have been '12 months ago' because we never paid anybody we didn't have to. We had no cash. To us, it was obvious the company was broke, but it didn't become obvious to the buyer until a few days after the sale was completed.
  • Scott_P said:
    Wollaston says parliament should not accept the Brady amendment because it is in conflict with the Withdrawal Agreement. Does she think that the UK is bound by the WA just because the EU accepts it?
    The clues in the word 'Agreement'.
    And it is an International treaty
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    The proportion of those items which are imported must be even higher in early April, before many UK crops are ready.
    well just stop throwing half of them away help the BoP too :-)
    We'll be throwing away more if there are delays in transport.
    No we just wont be eating them, well be eating something else.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,134
    edited January 2019
    Sounds like a bucket of laughs working at the beeb...even one of the most right-on comics didn’t escape the censoring...

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6639473/Russell-Howard-says-BBC-told-write-joke-case-offended-ISIS.html

    Thing is they are both inaccurate.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Mrs C, tomatoes were considered unhealthy (in England) in the 16th century.

    They still are if you eat off pewter plates. Tomatoes are very acidic.
  • The proportion of those items which are imported must be even higher in early April, before many UK crops are ready.
    well just stop throwing half of them away help the BoP too :-)
    We'll be throwing away more if there are delays in transport.
    No we just wont be eating them, well be eating something else.
    Yes, cockles, winkles, offal - all those items farmers and fishermen will be dumping on the UK market because they won't be able to sell them to the EU, until they go bust and stop producing altogether, of course.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    edited January 2019

    Scott_P said:
    Wollaston says parliament should not accept the Brady amendment because it is in conflict with the Withdrawal Agreement. Does she think that the UK is bound by the WA just because the EU accepts it?
    The whole point of the Brady Amendment is to indicate to the EU what changes to the WA might be acceptable to the UK, in order for it to pass.

    Dr Wollaston might have noted that the WA as currently written was defeated massively a couple of weeks ago. She may even recall that she voted against it herself.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    It shames me to recall that I once worked for a company that was effectively insolvent. We managed to sell it at a scandalously high price to a cash rich water company. The due diligence was perfectly thorough, orthodox and intense. But none of the visiting accountants and consultants thought to ask basic common sense questions. Had they asked, for example, when we last paid the milkman the answer would have been '12 months ago' because we never paid anybody we didn't have to. We had no cash. To us, it was obvious the company was broke, but it didn't become obvious to the buyer until a few days after the sale was completed.

    I always read the bank statements. Cashflow is king. Always.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Anorak said:

    Sandpit said:

    Chris said:



    Yes, I understand that you don't think there will be any "real" shortages, and I understand that other people think the same.

    What I don't understand is what the basis is for that belief. I just don't see much point in repeated assertions about these things, unless they're accompanied by some kind of reasoning or evidence to back them up.

    To be honest, on a site about betting, I'd expect something a bit less blunt than "I don't think there will be a problem". Something more along the lines of looking at probabilities and consequences.

    Okay, numbers.

    ONS 2017 - 50% of food consumed in the UK is produced in the UK. 30% is imported from the EU and 20% imported from the RoW. 10% of the value of UK food consumption is exported.

    Source: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/food-statistics-pocketbook-2017/food-statistics-in-your-pocket-2017-global-and-uk-supply

    So, if trade in food with the EU stops completely, and we stop exporting, we can cover 80% of current domestic demand without any other changes.

    That's not going to lead to general shortages, as opposed to on specific lines - unless people start panicking.
    If we can only cover 80% of consumption, there will be rioting, looting and widespread malnutrition.

    Now, I don't think it will come to that (it's just not going to happen), but your answer shows a complete lack of understanding of how quickly food gets turned over in a supermarket.
    If everyone ate 80% of what they do now, we'd be a fitter and healthier nation, not starving and rioting.

    The problems will come from people panicking rather than trusting the supply chains to sort themselves out.

    Of course if half the EU food arrived, then we'd be on 95% even before the supermarkets go shopping in the rest of the world.

    There's plenty of risks associated with Brexit, but food shortages really isn't one of them. Maybe it might seem like the end of the world for Tarquin in Hoxton that he can't get avocados for a week or two, but it really isn't.
    Off you go again with your fake "we's". I doubt food supply in Dubai will be significantly affected, other than perhaps that the Marmite and HP Sauce might not be getting through.
    Why should geographic location determine whether you are a member of a community or not?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,138

    Off topic, some pb'ers may like to know my wife has given birth to a beautiful baby girl. 7lb 15Oz.

    Amazing how everything pales into insignificance next to that. We are very happy.

    Oh excellent news!
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    The proportion of those items which are imported must be even higher in early April, before many UK crops are ready.
    well just stop throwing half of them away help the BoP too :-)
    We'll be throwing away more if there are delays in transport.
    No we just wont be eating them, well be eating something else.
    Yes, cockles, winkles, offal - all those items farmers and fishermen will be dumping on the UK market because they won't be able to sell them to the EU, until they go bust and stop producing altogether, of course.
    you have something against fish ? We import much more than we export so if youre telling me Ill have to suck it up and eat fresh scallops or langoustines, Ill put up with it.

    meantime the UK overeats by 20% and compounds this by buying a further 30% of foodstuffs it chucks in the bin. We are a long way off starvation.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Cyclefree said:

    kinabalu said:

    On trade deals, as in many aspects of life, there is a value in fending for oneself rather than relying on others. OK, so it might take many years of effort and focus to end up with a set of trade deals that are not as good as those we had to start with but we will have done them ourselves.

    I can buy a toaster in Tescos for a few quid. It is made thanks to the expertise of others. Alternatively I can spend thousands of pounds and hundreds of hours building my own, less efficient version

    http://www.thomasthwaites.com/the-toaster-project/

    The reason we are were we are is because we cooperate and specialise. I am amazed by this attitude, which seems more prevalent on the right, that we must be self-reliant and depend on others less and do more stuff for ourselves.

    Sometimes I wish they would live by that attitude. The internet would quieten down for a bit whilst they start mining the ores needed to build their own silicon chip furnaces to allow construction of computers to allow them to access the internet.
    De-lurking again to fix this horrible wrong: chips are made in foundries, but not in furnaces. Instead of heat, you need a really clean light source - and in future ones extreme UV light. Oh, and lots of different acids and chemicals to etch and clean the wafers.

    If they want a home project, they're much more likely to do something like this:
    http://www.megaprocessor.com/index.html
    Of course, there's bit of a problem with the room required. ;)

    (initiate lurking mode)
    No need to build a toaster. A toasting fork and an open fire and you can have all the delicious toast you want.

    And wouldn’t the world be a nicer place if we wrote elegant notes to each other on paper with pens and ink in italic handwriting?
    Toasting fork? Pah!

    When i were a lad a stick was all you needed
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,199

    Looks as if there is a possibilty that non of the amendments tomorrow will pass

    Downing Street saying they recognise the backstop has to change and JRM has just gone into no 10

    Seems few if any want to compromise their positions as we head to no deal

    If it happens all 498 mps who voted for A50 have the responsibilty

    A possibility but more likely the Cooper and Spelman amendments will pass, Cooper certainly has the numbers according to Rentoul, which means the Commons will have voted to extend Article 50 and against No Deal and possibly the Brady amendment will pass too though unless the EU shift on the backstop in reality that means little
  • you have something against fish ? We import much more than we export so if youre telling me Ill have to suck it up and eat fresh scallops or langoustines, Ill put up with it.

    meantime the UK overeats by 20% and compounds this by buying a further 30% of foodstuffs it chucks in the bin. We are a long way off starvation.

    You are right, a no-deal Brexit won't lead to starvation. That's OK, then, the government can stop worrying.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Charles said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Anorak said:

    Sandpit said:

    Chris said:



    Yes, I understand that you don't think there will be any "real" shortages, and I understand that other people think the same.

    What I don't understand is what the basis is for that belief. I just don't see much point in repeated assertions about these things, unless they're accompanied by some kind of reasoning or evidence to back them up.

    To be honest, on a site about betting, I'd expect something a bit less blunt than "I don't think there will be a problem". Something more along the lines of looking at probabilities and consequences.

    Okay, numbers.

    ONS 2017 - 50% of food consumed in the UK is produced in the UK. 30% is imported from the EU and 20% imported from the RoW. 10% of the value of UK food consumption is exported.

    Source: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/food-statistics-pocketbook-2017/food-statistics-in-your-pocket-2017-global-and-uk-supply

    So, if trade in food with the EU stops completely, and we stop exporting, we can cover 80% of current domestic demand without any other changes.

    That's not going to lead to general shortages, as opposed to on specific lines - unless people start panicking.
    If we can only cover 80% of consumption, there will be rioting, looting and widespread malnutrition.

    Now, I don't think it will come to that (it's just not going to happen), but your answer shows a complete lack of understanding of how quickly food gets turned over in a supermarket.
    If everyone ate 80% of what they do now, we'd be a fitter and healthier nation, not starving and rioting.

    The problems will come from people panicking rather than trusting the supply chains to sort themselves out.

    Of course if half the EU food arrived, then we'd be on 95% even before the supermarkets go shopping in the rest of the world.

    There's plenty of risks associated with Brexit, but food shortages really isn't one of them. Maybe it might seem like the end of the world for Tarquin in Hoxton that he can't get avocados for a week or two, but it really isn't.
    Off you go again with your fake "we's". I doubt food supply in Dubai will be significantly affected, other than perhaps that the Marmite and HP Sauce might not be getting through.
    Why should geographic location determine whether you are a member of a community or not?
    It shouldn't. All views and perspectives are welcome. What isn't on is to go talking about a subject like potential food shortages in the UK with "we this" and "we that" when he isn't going to be affected at all.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    So the best article about what will happen tomorrow seems to be on a German website

    https://verfassungsblog.de/not-the-meaningful-vote-a-guide-to-the-role-of-the-commons-on-tuesday/
This discussion has been closed.