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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Dems, surely, are. not going to choose someone in their la

SystemSystem Posts: 12,172
edited January 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Dems, surely, are. not going to choose someone in their late 70s to oust an incumbent in his mid-70s

2020 GE:Biden 53% (+12)Trump 41%.Sanders 51% (+10)Trump 41%.Harris 48% (+7)Trump 41%.O'Rourke 47% (+6)Trump 41%.Warren 48% (+6)Trump 42%.Booker 47% (+5)Trump 42%.Gillibrand 47% (+5)Trump 42%@ppppolls 1/19-21https://t.co/MheHlB8QH6

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Comments

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    Brexit. Arse.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Jonathan said:

    Brexit. Arse.

    Such poetry is rarely seen. Such meaning. :)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Well, the PM of Malaysia is in his 90s, late 70s is no problem, clearly.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387
    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Brexit. Arse.

    Such poetry is rarely seen. Such meaning. :)
    It's inspiring.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited January 2019
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1087835833057587203

    And yet many Tories think an election is just the thing to have right now.
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/RupertNeate/status/1087834342225862657

    I don't get it, how is that a blow to May? She's trying, and failing, to avoid the no deal which scares so many. Cannot do anything about one's already left of course. Because ruling out a March no deal but not actually doing anything just pushes the chaos back, it doesn't prevent it.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Brexit. Arse.

    Such poetry is rarely seen. Such meaning. :)
    I’ve seen worse written on Brexit.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    All the UK polls(IIRC) show someone would beat Corbyn.. even a giraffe would beat Corbyn..
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Brexit. Arse.

    Such poetry is rarely seen. Such meaning. :)
    I’ve seen worse written on Brexit.
    I've seen better written on toilet doors.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Brexit. Arse.

    Such poetry is rarely seen. Such meaning. :)
    I’ve seen worse written on Brexit.
    It was certainly a lot more concise. Might as well save everyone some effort and just have everyone, everywhere, talk about anything but Brexit but just append their comments with

    Brexit +
    Brexit -
    Brexit ~

    To indicate their thoughts on the matter. Save some time.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    edited January 2019
    Books....who has books these days? I have more tvs than books in my house.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    TudorRose said:

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Brexit. Arse.

    Such poetry is rarely seen. Such meaning. :)
    I’ve seen worse written on Brexit.
    I've seen better written on toilet doors.
    What you do on your own spare time is your business.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Books....who has books these days?

    I have loads.

    I can burn them when Brexit hits...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741
    As a change from Brexit Groundhog Day, and anyone with a pulse being better than Trump, tonights Oscar nominations look good.

    https://twitter.com/ThePopcornDiet/status/1087710869625028608?s=19
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/alstewitn/status/1087837619961118722
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    Is it time to panic buy yet?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    Scott_P said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Books....who has books these days?

    I have loads.

    I can burn them when Brexit hits...
    I genuinely have bugger all books. Piles of academic papers, yes, books, i read / listen to them iPad and kindle.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741
    TudorRose said:

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Brexit. Arse.

    Such poetry is rarely seen. Such meaning. :)
    I’ve seen worse written on Brexit.
    I've seen better written on toilet doors.
    Here I sit, broken hearted,
    Voted Leave, but only farted

    Can I pick up the loo laureate now?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    Jonathan said:

    Is it time to panic buy yet?

    Have Costco got some particularly good deals this week?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    I don't think Sanders is going anywhere even if he runs, last time he had only terrible opposition and now even Dems who supported him last time don't want to relive 2016.

    If Biden runs I think he wins. There are like 45 liberal women in the race splitting their support, and if he looks like he can put up a spirited effort against Trump's malarky then nothing else matters, not even the creepy pictures. But I don't think he'll run.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    TudorRose said:

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Brexit. Arse.

    Such poetry is rarely seen. Such meaning. :)
    I’ve seen worse written on Brexit.
    I've seen better written on toilet doors.
    Fair Cloacina, goddess of this place
    Accustomed seat of every child of grace
    On this, thy fair throne, let our libations flow
    Not rudely swift, or obstinately slow

    (My grandfather graffitied that in the gents at Christchurch - he liked to rework Byron - and came back the next day to find someone had added Latin and Greek translations)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Foxy said:

    As a change from Brexit Groundhog Day, and anyone with a pulse being better than Trump, tonights Oscar nominations look good.

    https://twitter.com/ThePopcornDiet/status/1087710869625028608?s=19

    I truly am surprised by Black Panther. It's not even the best of the Marvel movies, it's well acted but the plot is very 'meh'. Not sure what so many people see it in to be honest, there was a lot of talk of how it wasn't just another Marvel movie, but it really was.

    Probably the first time I've ever seen around half of the Oscar nominated films though. Blackkklansman was pretty decent, I had plenty of fun with Bohemian Rhapsody and A Star is Born, and take out the awful, awful soundtrack and The Favourite was great in parts. First Man was, absent a few scenes, surprisingly bland, and I almost fell asleep during Mary Poppins, but in fairness I think I was a bit under the weather that day.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    edited January 2019
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Jonathan said:

    Is it time to panic buy yet?

    Have Costco got some particularly good deals this week?
    One has to plan ones panic buys. Hope we don’t skip that stage and head direct to cannibalism. I have too much of that on Southern Trains.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,773
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1087835833057587203

    And yet many Tories think an election is just the thing to have right now.
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/RupertNeate/status/1087834342225862657

    I don't get it, how is that a blow to May? She's trying, and failing, to avoid the no deal which scares so many. Cannot do anything about one's already left of course. Because ruling out a March no deal but not actually doing anything just pushes the chaos back, it doesn't prevent it.
    Hadn't the Tories lost middle class owners with stacks of books on their shelves a long time ago. Like during Thatch?

    Certainly had with anyone I have known over the years.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Biden is the only Democrat candidate I can think of who would be favourite to defeat Trump.
  • twistedfirestopper3twistedfirestopper3 Posts: 2,435
    O/T
    I don't have an Instagram account, but all week I have been getting emails from them about me having changed my user name and not being able to login. The user name bears no resemblance to my name or email address, but it quotes my email address as the one linked to the account.
    Should I be worried about this?
    There appears to be no way to contact Instagram that involves actual human interaction, so how can I get my address off this account?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,773
    Jonathan said:

    Is it time to panic buy yet?

    Yes, but...

    Late to the party.

    Some of us now have a hall and spare room full of stuff.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,730
    edited January 2019
    FPT
    Charles said:

    williamglenn said:

    Jonathan said:

    Charles is wrong. A second referendum is a more democratic option than a parliamentary hack. This chaos was unforeseen. Remain is a viable route out, as such we shouldn’t rule it out.

    Charles famously thought the European Medicines Agency was nothing to do with the EU and that it would be unaffected by Brexit, so I think it's right for him to be given another vote.
    No. That’s not accurate but I will put it down to false recall on your part not a deliberate lie.

    I said that the sensible outcome would be for the U.K. to remain part of the EMA. (And I still believe that is the sensible outcome).

    However - which I didn’t realise - was that you have to be a member of the EU to be a member of the EMA. I think that’s a stupid rule, but if that’s a rule that’s important to them we’ll just have to beef up the MHRA instead.
    It's pretty accurate, but I will put your denial down to repressed memory syndrome.

    image

    https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/1383244/#Comment_1383244
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Books....who has books these days? I have more tvs than books in my house.

    What's a TV?

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,773
    Jonathan said:

    Brexit. Arse.

    You are Jim Royle and I claim my five pounds.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    edited January 2019
    FPT:
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1087835833057587203

    With apologies for raising a trivial distraction right now, but there are local elections in May for seats last fought in 2015.

    I don't think it takes too much of a leap of the imagination to predict that the Conservatives are indeed going to get absolutely mullered in Remain areas. Nor to predict a modest-to-good Lib Dem revival compared to their 2015 nadir. And a locally mullered party with dispirited activists is not one which will be in good shape to fight any General Election.

    The leafletting has started locally, and although the Conservatives are putting up an excellent candidate in our ward (which they once held), I'd give them no more than a 5% chance of capturing it from the Lib Dems. We're the sort of town that has lots of books on shelves.

    I can't find any markets up as yet for the May locals.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    rottenborough said:

    Jonathan said:

    Is it time to panic buy yet?

    Yes, but...

    Late to the party.

    Some of us now have a hall and spare room full of stuff.

    So have I, but that is more to do with Mrs urquhart getting carried away in Costco. I don’t know how long it will take to get through 100+ tubes of toothpaste, but even brexit will be decided by then.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,730
    rcs1000 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Books....who has books these days? I have more tvs than books in my house.

    What's a TV?
    "Put your smartphone down and turn on the TV. You might learn something."
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,773
    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1087834295035748354
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741
    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    As a change from Brexit Groundhog Day, and anyone with a pulse being better than Trump, tonights Oscar nominations look good.

    https://twitter.com/ThePopcornDiet/status/1087710869625028608?s=19

    I truly am surprised by Black Panther. It's not even the best of the Marvel movies, it's well acted but the plot is very 'meh'. Not sure what so many people see it in to be honest, there was a lot of talk of how it wasn't just another Marvel movie, but it really was.

    Probably the first time I've ever seen around half of the Oscar nominated films though. Blackkklansman was pretty decent, I had plenty of fun with Bohemian Rhapsody and A Star is Born, and take out the awful, awful soundtrack and The Favourite was great in parts. First Man was, absent a few scenes, surprisingly bland, and I almost fell asleep during Mary Poppins, but in fairness I think I was a bit under the weather that day.
    I can see Roma doing well, as a liberal two fingers to Trump.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    That link proves what I said - I didn’t know the link between the EMA and the EU. Not your contention.
    williamglenn said:

    FPT

    Charles said:

    williamglenn said:

    Jonathan said:

    Charles is wrong. A second referendum is a more democratic option than a parliamentary hack. This chaos was unforeseen. Remain is a viable route out, as such we shouldn’t rule it out.

    Charles famously thought the European Medicines Agency was nothing to do with the EU and that it would be unaffected by Brexit, so I think it's right for him to be given another vote.
    No. That’s not accurate but I will put it down to false recall on your part not a deliberate lie.

    I said that the sensible outcome would be for the U.K. to remain part of the EMA. (And I still believe that is the sensible outcome).

    However - which I didn’t realise - was that you have to be a member of the EU to be a member of the EMA. I think that’s a stupid rule, but if that’s a rule that’s important to them we’ll just have to beef up the MHRA instead.
    It's pretty accurate, but I will put your denial down to repressed memory syndrome.

    image

    https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/1383244/#Comment_1383244
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1087840062396661760
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    rottenborough said:

    Jonathan said:

    Is it time to panic buy yet?

    Yes, but...

    Late to the party.

    Some of us now have a hall and spare room full of stuff.

    "But enough about my Beanie Baby collection, which are all in mint condition and ready for the next market bubble..."
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    edmundintokyo said:

    I don't think Sanders is going anywhere even if he runs, last time he had only terrible opposition and now even Dems who supported him last time don't want to relive 2016.

    If Biden runs I think he wins. There are like 45 liberal women in the race splitting their support, and if he looks like he can put up a spirited effort against Trump's malarky then nothing else matters, not even the creepy pictures. But I don't think he'll run.

    Biden was an insipid and uninspiring performer last time he ran back in '08. He's now twelve years older, and let's be honest, he wouldn't be in the top 100 candidates if he hadn't been Obama's VP.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    edited January 2019
    rcs1000 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Books....who has books these days? I have more tvs than books in my house.

    What's a TV?

    Well technically I am including monitors as well....I have 5 in my office alone, which is 5 more than the number of books.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,773
    On topic:

    https://twitter.com/GeneralBoles/status/1087775428159377409
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    SquareRoot said:

    All the UK polls(IIRC) show someone would beat Corbyn.. even a giraffe would beat Corbyn..

    But no-one can beat 'Don't Know' for PM.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    El_Capitano said:

    FPT:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1087835833057587203

    With apologies for raising a trivial distraction right now, but there are local elections in May for seats last fought in 2015.

    I don't think it takes too much of a leap of the imagination to predict that the Conservatives are indeed going to get absolutely mullered in Remain areas. Nor to predict a modest-to-good Lib Dem revival compared to their 2015 nadir.

    The leafletting has started locally, and although the Conservatives are putting up an excellent candidate in our ward (which they once held), I'd give them no more than a 5% chance of capturing it from the Lib Dems. We're the sort of town that has lots of books on shelves.

    I can't find any markets up as yet for the May locals.
    Liberals meanwhile have collapsed in my 50/50 town...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1087834295035748354

    It has always seemed pretty likely to me that delivering a contentious, massively difficult policy with a party with very strong factions split in different directions on that policy, would always mean the Tories would struggle to win an election, and that their best hope would be to get a deal, ride out a period of extreme unpopularity as remain/brexit ultras flounce out, and then try to rebuild under a new leader over the next 2-3 years. That'd be 11-12 years into office, with economic turbulence to contend with too probably, so it would still not be easy.

    Instead Tories seem determined to completely bungle any kind of Brexit, see themselves torn apart and have parliament via the opposition dictate to them, then stumble into a General Election and presume that Corbyn will have a harder time holding on to his support than they will.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    Mortimer said:

    El_Capitano said:

    FPT:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1087835833057587203

    With apologies for raising a trivial distraction right now, but there are local elections in May for seats last fought in 2015.

    I don't think it takes too much of a leap of the imagination to predict that the Conservatives are indeed going to get absolutely mullered in Remain areas. Nor to predict a modest-to-good Lib Dem revival compared to their 2015 nadir.

    The leafletting has started locally, and although the Conservatives are putting up an excellent candidate in our ward (which they once held), I'd give them no more than a 5% chance of capturing it from the Lib Dems. We're the sort of town that has lots of books on shelves.

    I can't find any markets up as yet for the May locals.
    Liberals meanwhile have collapsed in my 50/50 town...
    Interesting. Brexit reasons or other, do you think?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,773
    rcs1000 said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    I don't think Sanders is going anywhere even if he runs, last time he had only terrible opposition and now even Dems who supported him last time don't want to relive 2016.

    If Biden runs I think he wins. There are like 45 liberal women in the race splitting their support, and if he looks like he can put up a spirited effort against Trump's malarky then nothing else matters, not even the creepy pictures. But I don't think he'll run.

    Biden was an insipid and uninspiring performer last time he ran back in '08. He's now twelve years older, and let's be honest, he wouldn't be in the top 100 candidates if he hadn't been Obama's VP.
    Hmm. And yet, he is one spirited, no-holds-barred, anti-Trump, 'it's a load of malarky' speech in which he moves from tears for his working class roots to anger at the country's direction, away from the nomination imho.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298
    Foxy said:

    As a change from Brexit Groundhog Day, and anyone with a pulse being better than Trump, tonights Oscar nominations look good.

    https://twitter.com/ThePopcornDiet/status/1087710869625028608?s=19

    How do they come up with these lists? I watched Roma with five people. Only two of us made it to the end, and we both said we regretted bothering.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    Wayne Rooney spoke 'broken English' at time of arrest, says police report

    So about normal then...how did they work out he was drunk?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,219
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Scott_P said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Books....who has books these days?

    I have loads.

    I can burn them when Brexit hits...
    I genuinely have bugger all books. Piles of academic papers, yes, books, i read / listen to them iPad and kindle.
    Can you play TikTok videos on one of these 'books' ?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,730
    Charles said:

    That link proves what I said - I didn’t know the link between the EMA and the EU. Not your contention.

    williamglenn said:

    FPT

    Charles said:

    williamglenn said:

    Jonathan said:

    Charles is wrong. A second referendum is a more democratic option than a parliamentary hack. This chaos was unforeseen. Remain is a viable route out, as such we shouldn’t rule it out.

    Charles famously thought the European Medicines Agency was nothing to do with the EU and that it would be unaffected by Brexit, so I think it's right for him to be given another vote.
    No. That’s not accurate but I will put it down to false recall on your part not a deliberate lie.

    I said that the sensible outcome would be for the U.K. to remain part of the EMA. (And I still believe that is the sensible outcome).

    However - which I didn’t realise - was that you have to be a member of the EU to be a member of the EMA. I think that’s a stupid rule, but if that’s a rule that’s important to them we’ll just have to beef up the MHRA instead.
    It's pretty accurate, but I will put your denial down to repressed memory syndrome.

    image

    https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/1383244/#Comment_1383244
    My contention was that you didn't know the link between the EMA and the EU and "nothing to do with the EU" turns out to be a verbatim quote...

    You said "EUGMP = European GMP. Nothing to do with the EU" and "EUGMP is set by the EMA".
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,773
    If I have understood today correctly, Vardkar has gone from 'we wont ever put up a border' to 'we can't trust anything so we will need a backstop' within about five hours?
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,355
    edited January 2019
    kle4 said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1087834295035748354

    It has always seemed pretty likely to me that delivering a contentious, massively difficult policy with a party with very strong factions split in different directions on that policy, would always mean the Tories would struggle to win an election, and that their best hope would be to get a deal, ride out a period of extreme unpopularity as remain/brexit ultras flounce out, and then try to rebuild under a new leader over the next 2-3 years. That'd be 11-12 years into office, with economic turbulence to contend with too probably, so it would still not be easy.

    Instead Tories seem determined to completely bungle any kind of Brexit, see themselves torn apart and have parliament via the opposition dictate to them, then stumble into a General Election and presume that Corbyn will have a harder time holding on to his support than they will.
    If there is one sensible reason for the Conservatives to call a GE it might be that Corbyn won't last forever, and they have a chance against him whereas against any of the likely replacements, they would get mullered.

    Hard to think of a second reason.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    Pulpstar said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Scott_P said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Books....who has books these days?

    I have loads.

    I can burn them when Brexit hits...
    I genuinely have bugger all books. Piles of academic papers, yes, books, i read / listen to them iPad and kindle.
    Can you play TikTok videos on one of these 'books' ?
    I am more likely to join maomentum than download the tiktok app.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,773
    John McD on Newsnight now.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Scott_P said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Books....who has books these days?

    I have loads.

    I can burn them when Brexit hits...
    I genuinely have bugger all books. Piles of academic papers, yes, books, i read / listen to them iPad and kindle.
    I don't like you any more. In fact that is worse than saying you have switched to Remain. You 're an evil man.

    For the record I have something over 8,000 books in my house. I aim to read at least 150 a year.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    rottenborough said:

    If I have understood today correctly, Vardkar has gone from 'we wont ever put up a border' to 'we can't trust anything so we will need a backstop' within about five hours?

    I thought he was saying 'We cannot be sure we won't need a backstop, so I'm going to insist on conditions which mean we have no choice but to have a backstop and no chance of avoiding it'
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    Books are great for reading and in a post Brexit scenario make great toilet paper.

    iPads make lousy toilet paper. Wiping by swiping is not covered by Apple Care.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,773
    rkrkrk said:

    Foxy said:

    As a change from Brexit Groundhog Day, and anyone with a pulse being better than Trump, tonights Oscar nominations look good.

    https://twitter.com/ThePopcornDiet/status/1087710869625028608?s=19

    How do they come up with these lists? I watched Roma with five people. Only two of us made it to the end, and we both said we regretted bothering.
    Bohemian Rhapsody was fantastic, but no way can it win in US oscars.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    williamglenn said:

    Charles said:

    That link proves what I said - I didn’t know the link between the EMA and the EU. Not your contention.

    williamglenn said:

    FPT

    Charles said:

    williamglenn said:

    Jonathan said:

    Charles is wrong. A second referendum is a more democratic option than a parliamentary hack. This chaos was unforeseen. Remain is a viable route out, as such we shouldn’t rule it out.

    Charles famously thought the European Medicines Agency was nothing to do with the EU and that it would be unaffected by Brexit, so I think it's right for him to be given another vote.
    No. That’s not accurate but I will put it down to false recall on your part not a deliberate lie.

    I said that the sensible outcome would be for the U.K. to remain part of the EMA. (And I still believe that is the sensible outcome).

    However - which I didn’t realise - was that you have to be a member of the EU to be a member of the EMA. I think that’s a stupid rule, but if that’s a rule that’s important to them we’ll just have to beef up the MHRA instead.
    It's pretty accurate, but I will put your denial down to repressed memory syndrome.

    image

    https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/1383244/#Comment_1383244
    My contention was that you didn't know the link between the EMA and the EU and "nothing to do with the EU" turns out to be a verbatim quote...

    You said "EUGMP = European GMP. Nothing to do with the EU" and "EUGMP is set by the EMA".
    Yes - that’s just a different way of phrasing what I said.

    It was the “unaffected by Brexit” comment I was objecting to

    In any event I made a mistake 2 years ago. SFW.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,773
    Yvette will "highly likely" get support on her amendment - John mcD
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    kle4 said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1087834295035748354

    It has always seemed pretty likely to me that delivering a contentious, massively difficult policy with a party with very strong factions split in different directions on that policy, would always mean the Tories would struggle to win an election, and that their best hope would be to get a deal, ride out a period of extreme unpopularity as remain/brexit ultras flounce out, and then try to rebuild under a new leader over the next 2-3 years. That'd be 11-12 years into office, with economic turbulence to contend with too probably, so it would still not be easy.

    Instead Tories seem determined to completely bungle any kind of Brexit, see themselves torn apart and have parliament via the opposition dictate to them, then stumble into a General Election and presume that Corbyn will have a harder time holding on to his support than they will.
    If there is one sensible reason for the Conservatives to call a GE it might be that Corbyn won't last forever, and they have a chance against him whereas against any of the likely replacements, they would get mullered.

    Hard to think of a second reason.
    The other one is to pass the poisoned chalice of Brexit to Jezza...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,773
    McD sounding very positive about Yvette's amendment.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    On the subject of books, and before I get back to work, can I highly recommend Six of Crows, it's a young adult book that could best be described as fantasy Oceans 11.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,730
    Charles said:

    In any event I made a mistake 2 years ago. SFW.

    You weren't the only one, and I think it's right that you should have a chance to vote again.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,149
    rottenborough said:

    Yvette will "highly likely" get support on her amendment - John mcD

    It should pass as the country groans at this going on until the end of the year
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298
    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    As a change from Brexit Groundhog Day, and anyone with a pulse being better than Trump, tonights Oscar nominations look good.

    https://twitter.com/ThePopcornDiet/status/1087710869625028608?s=19

    I truly am surprised by Black Panther. It's not even the best of the Marvel movies, it's well acted but the plot is very 'meh'. Not sure what so many people see it in to be honest, there was a lot of talk of how it wasn't just another Marvel movie, but it really was.

    .
    Completely disagree. Really enjoyed black panther and thought it was far more interesting than other marvel movies. Showed a complexity of morality that superhero tales don't normally have.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    rcs1000 said:

    On the subject of books, and before I get back to work, can I highly recommend Six of Crows, it's a young adult book that could best be described as fantasy Oceans 11.

    How absorbent is it?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1087843024988704769
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,773
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Scott_P said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Books....who has books these days?

    I have loads.

    I can burn them when Brexit hits...
    I genuinely have bugger all books. Piles of academic papers, yes, books, i read / listen to them iPad and kindle.
    I don't like you any more. In fact that is worse than saying you have switched to Remain. You 're an evil man.

    For the record I have something over 8,000 books in my house. I aim to read at least 150 a year.
    :+1:

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    rcs1000 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Books....who has books these days? I have more tvs than books in my house.

    What's a TV?

    Who was it who said many moons ago that soon the only difference between your computer and your TV will be what room it's in.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,622
    Foxy said:

    As a change from Brexit Groundhog Day, and anyone with a pulse being better than Trump, tonights Oscar nominations look good.

    https://twitter.com/ThePopcornDiet/status/1087710869625028608?s=19

    Green Book is another of those "Civil Rights as entertainment" movies, along the lines of the enjoyable Hidden Figures. Enjoyable enough, when you get ove the casting of Strider as some Noo Yoik heavy (in all senses).

    BlackkKlansman I really enjoyed, as it is such a bizarre true story, despite some very obvious "This is a right-on Spike Lee movie" moments. It really packs its punch though in the last few minutes.

    Buster Scruggs is a series of half a dozen episodes, the first one of which is fabulous Cohn Bros. at their best. After that - not so much.

    Vice - people here will love it more than the general population, but much of the material has been done to death by Michael Moore. Combine with a very similar visual style to The Big Short (although, some much darker fast edit moments than in that movie) and it just doesn't seem as fresh. Some great performances though - loved Steve Carell as Rumsfeld and Sam Rockwell's Dubya is brilliant, but acting honours go to Christian Bale for ageing fifty years. Make-up and Hair Oscar nailed on.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited January 2019
    rkrkrk said:

    Foxy said:

    As a change from Brexit Groundhog Day, and anyone with a pulse being better than Trump, tonights Oscar nominations look good.

    https://twitter.com/ThePopcornDiet/status/1087710869625028608?s=19

    How do they come up with these lists? I watched Roma with five people. Only two of us made it to the end, and we both said we regretted bothering.
    I've not seen it yet, but is it deeply 'meaningful'? If it is excellent in a technical sense and pushes the right buttons for an artsy crowd I'd assume it would clear up at awards ceremonies.

    I find the Actor wins can seem pretty arbitrary though.
    rottenborough said:

    McD sounding very positive about Yvette's amendment.

    Is that the 'kick the can' amendment? The one that's probably a fig leaf for remain, but they want a few more months of the sides not coming to agreement before they admit that?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited January 2019
    rcs1000 said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    I don't think Sanders is going anywhere even if he runs, last time he had only terrible opposition and now even Dems who supported him last time don't want to relive 2016.

    If Biden runs I think he wins. There are like 45 liberal women in the race splitting their support, and if he looks like he can put up a spirited effort against Trump's malarky then nothing else matters, not even the creepy pictures. But I don't think he'll run.

    Biden was an insipid and uninspiring performer last time he ran back in '08. He's now twelve years older, and let's be honest, he wouldn't be in the top 100 candidates if he hadn't been Obama's VP.
    This is all true, but he *was* Obama's VP, and now he's known, trusted and loved.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,730
    rottenborough said:

    John McD on Newsnight now.

    He permanently has the demeanour of a tradesman who's about to tell you that what you thought was a small job actually means rebuilding most of the house.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/1087843606432571393
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    edited January 2019
    TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Books....who has books these days? I have more tvs than books in my house.

    What's a TV?

    Who was it who said many moons ago that soon the only difference between your computer and your TV will be what room it's in.
    There is still a big difference between a high end monitor and a tv. I wouldn’t want to code on my tv (despite it being 4K etc).
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    edited January 2019
    El_Capitano said:

    Mortimer said:

    El_Capitano said:

    FPT:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1087835833057587203

    With apologies for raising a trivial distraction right now, but there are local elections in May for seats last fought in 2015.

    I don't think it takes too much of a leap of the imagination to predict that the Conservatives are indeed going to get absolutely mullered in Remain areas. Nor to predict a modest-to-good Lib Dem revival compared to their 2015 nadir.

    The leafletting has started locally, and although the Conservatives are putting up an excellent candidate in our ward (which they once held), I'd give them no more than a 5% chance of capturing it from the Lib Dems. We're the sort of town that has lots of books on shelves.

    I can't find any markets up as yet for the May locals.
    Liberals meanwhile have collapsed in my 50/50 town...
    Interesting. Brexit reasons or other, do you think?
    Being anti Brexit combined with rise of Labour combined have hurt Liberals in Dorset. Our demographic is older than many areas and the triple lock has also been very effective here.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,875
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1087835833057587203

    And yet many Tories think an election is just the thing to have right now.
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/RupertNeate/status/1087834342225862657

    I don't get it, how is that a blow to May? She's trying, and failing, to avoid the no deal which scares so many. Cannot do anything about one's already left of course. Because ruling out a March no deal but not actually doing anything just pushes the chaos back, it doesn't prevent it.
    Sigh

    Today we had record employment
    Record proportion of the population in work
    Record vacancies
    Good figures on wage growth

    But why let the facts get in the way of some hysteria?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited January 2019
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1087843024988704769

    What a tremendous waste of time. Can any of these idiots say with a straight face that if they have not agreed up until now they will be able to come to an agreement on something in 3 months, 6 months or 9 months? It's such a 'clever' little idea to disguise its intent.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Charles said:

    williamglenn said:

    Charles said:

    That link proves what I said - I didn’t know the link between the EMA and the EU. Not your contention.

    williamglenn said:

    FPT

    Charles said:

    williamglenn said:

    Jonathan said:

    Charles is wrong. A second referendum is a more democratic option than a parliamentary hack. This chaos was unforeseen. Remain is a viable route out, as such we shouldn’t rule it out.

    Charles famously thought the European Medicines Agency was nothing to do with the EU and that it would be unaffected by Brexit, so I think it's right for him to be given another vote.
    No. That’s not accurate but I will put it down to false recall on your part not a deliberate lie.

    I said that the sensible outcome would be for the U.K. to remain part of the EMA. (And I still believe that is the sensible outcome).

    However - which I didn’t realise - was that you have to be a member of the EU to be a member of the EMA. I think that’s a stupid rule, but if that’s a rule that’s important to them we’ll just have to beef up the MHRA instead.
    It's pretty accurate, but I will put your denial down to repressed memory syndrome.

    image

    https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/1383244/#Comment_1383244
    My contention was that you didn't know the link between the EMA and the EU and "nothing to do with the EU" turns out to be a verbatim quote...

    You said "EUGMP = European GMP. Nothing to do with the EU" and "EUGMP is set by the EMA".
    Yes - that’s just a different way of phrasing what I said.

    It was the “unaffected by Brexit” comment I was objecting to

    In any event I made a mistake 2 years ago. SFW.
    I thought for one minute you meant your vote to leave.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580
    MarqueeMark said:

    Foxy said:

    As a change from Brexit Groundhog Day, and anyone with a pulse being better than Trump, tonights Oscar nominations look good.

    https://twitter.com/ThePopcornDiet/status/1087710869625028608?s=19

    Green Book is another of those "Civil Rights as entertainment" movies, along the lines of the enjoyable Hidden Figures. Enjoyable enough, when you get ove the casting of Strider as some Noo Yoik heavy (in all senses).

    BlackkKlansman I really enjoyed, as it is such a bizarre true story, despite some very obvious "This is a right-on Spike Lee movie" moments. It really packs its punch though in the last few minutes.

    Buster Scruggs is a series of half a dozen episodes, the first one of which is fabulous Cohn Bros. at their best. After that - not so much.

    Vice - people here will love it more than the general population, but much of the material has been done to death by Michael Moore. Combine with a very similar visual style to The Big Short (although, some much darker fast edit moments than in that movie) and it just doesn't seem as fresh. Some great performances though - loved Steve Carell as Rumsfeld and Sam Rockwell's Dubya is brilliant, but acting honours go to Christian Bale for ageing fifty years. Make-up and Hair Oscar nailed on.
    I loved every single bit of Buster Scruggs. The Tom Waits segment was a perfect gem of a story.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    Are the rumours true that Cameron’s imminent memoirs will be published on double ply cushioned paper?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1087835833057587203

    And yet many Tories think an election is just the thing to have right now.
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/RupertNeate/status/1087834342225862657

    I don't get it, how is that a blow to May? She's trying, and failing, to avoid the no deal which scares so many. Cannot do anything about one's already left of course. Because ruling out a March no deal but not actually doing anything just pushes the chaos back, it doesn't prevent it.
    Sigh

    Today we had record employment
    Record proportion of the population in work
    Record vacancies
    Good figures on wage growth

    But why let the facts get in the way of some hysteria?
    Why indeed. But even accepting the premise of the story I don't know why it was a specific blow to May.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,773
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/1087843606432571393

    Dyson may be good at engineering but he is shit at politics, comms and PR.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Christ, Kirsty Wark is a terrible interviewer.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,219
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1087843024988704769

    What a tremendous waste of time. Can any of these idiots say with a straight face that if they have not agreed up until now they will be able to come to an agreement on something in 3 months, 6 months or 9 months?
    European elections will be a hoot
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Foxy said:

    As a change from Brexit Groundhog Day, and anyone with a pulse being better than Trump, tonights Oscar nominations look good.

    https://twitter.com/ThePopcornDiet/status/1087710869625028608?s=19

    Green Book is another of those "Civil Rights as entertainment" movies, along the lines of the enjoyable Hidden Figures. Enjoyable enough, when you get ove the casting of Strider as some Noo Yoik heavy (in all senses).

    BlackkKlansman I really enjoyed, as it is such a bizarre true story, despite some very obvious "This is a right-on Spike Lee movie" moments. It really packs its punch though in the last few minutes.

    Buster Scruggs is a series of half a dozen episodes, the first one of which is fabulous Cohn Bros. at their best. After that - not so much.

    Vice - people here will love it more than the general population, but much of the material has been done to death by Michael Moore. Combine with a very similar visual style to The Big Short (although, some much darker fast edit moments than in that movie) and it just doesn't seem as fresh. Some great performances though - loved Steve Carell as Rumsfeld and Sam Rockwell's Dubya is brilliant, but acting honours go to Christian Bale for ageing fifty years. Make-up and Hair Oscar nailed on.
    I loved every single bit of Buster Scruggs. The Tom Waits segment was a perfect gem of a story.
    That's the only one on that list I have not even heard of. When did it come out?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,773
    Jonathan said:

    Are the rumours true that Cameron’s imminent memoirs will be published on double ply cushioned paper?

    Good idea, as there is likely to be a shortage of toilet paper later this year.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    rkrkrk said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    As a change from Brexit Groundhog Day, and anyone with a pulse being better than Trump, tonights Oscar nominations look good.

    https://twitter.com/ThePopcornDiet/status/1087710869625028608?s=19

    I truly am surprised by Black Panther. It's not even the best of the Marvel movies, it's well acted but the plot is very 'meh'. Not sure what so many people see it in to be honest, there was a lot of talk of how it wasn't just another Marvel movie, but it really was.

    .
    Completely disagree. Really enjoyed black panther and thought it was far more interesting than other marvel movies. Showed a complexity of morality that superhero tales don't normally have.
    You would have to threaten me with a Hawaiian Pizza before I went to see The Favourite.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    Danny565 said:

    Christ, Kirsty Wark is a terrible interviewer.

    Newsnight just needs taking out the back and shooting.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298
    williamglenn said:

    rottenborough said:

    John McD on Newsnight now.

    He permanently has the demeanour of a tradesman who's about to tell you that what you thought was a small job actually means rebuilding most of the house.
    That's a very good way of describing it - made me chuckle!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,875
    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1087835833057587203

    And yet many Tories think an election is just the thing to have right now.
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/RupertNeate/status/1087834342225862657

    I don't get it, how is that a blow to May? She's trying, and failing, to avoid the no deal which scares so many. Cannot do anything about one's already left of course. Because ruling out a March no deal but not actually doing anything just pushes the chaos back, it doesn't prevent it.
    Sigh

    Today we had record employment
    Record proportion of the population in work
    Record vacancies
    Good figures on wage growth

    But why let the facts get in the way of some hysteria?
    Why indeed. But even accepting the premise of the story I don't know why it was a specific blow to May.
    You’re expecting the G to be rational now? Blimey.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    rottenborough said:

    Jonathan said:

    Are the rumours true that Cameron’s imminent memoirs will be published on double ply cushioned paper?

    Good idea, as there is likely to be a shortage of toilet paper later this year.
    I recommend copies of the deal. 500 pages. Family size.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1087845202897920003
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    Mortimer said:

    El_Capitano said:

    Mortimer said:

    El_Capitano said:

    FPT:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1087835833057587203

    With apologies for raising a trivial distraction right now, but there are local elections in May for seats last fought in 2015.

    I don't think it takes too much of a leap of the imagination to predict that the Conservatives are indeed going to get absolutely mullered in Remain areas. Nor to predict a modest-to-good Lib Dem revival compared to their 2015 nadir.

    The leafletting has started locally, and although the Conservatives are putting up an excellent candidate in our ward (which they once held), I'd give them no more than a 5% chance of capturing it from the Lib Dems. We're the sort of town that has lots of books on shelves.

    I can't find any markets up as yet for the May locals.
    Liberals meanwhile have collapsed in my 50/50 town...
    Interesting. Brexit reasons or other, do you think?
    Being anti Brexit combined with rise of Labour combined have hurt Liberals in Dorset. Our demographic is older than many areas and the triple lock has also been very effective here.
    Gotcha. It would be interesting to do some modelling on the demographic for those wards being fought in May, but I suspect very few people will notice there are any locals until about five days beforehand...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,773
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1087843024988704769

    What a tremendous waste of time. Can any of these idiots say with a straight face that if they have not agreed up until now they will be able to come to an agreement on something in 3 months, 6 months or 9 months? It's such a 'clever' little idea to disguise its intent.
    I don't care, the way I feel at the moment, at least I will get my wife's meds in April.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,149
    Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1087843024988704769

    What a tremendous waste of time. Can any of these idiots say with a straight face that if they have not agreed up until now they will be able to come to an agreement on something in 3 months, 6 months or 9 months?
    European elections will be a hoot
    Unless there is a realistic chance of anything changing the EU will say no
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,773
    williamglenn said:

    rottenborough said:

    John McD on Newsnight now.

    He permanently has the demeanour of a tradesman who's about to tell you that what you thought was a small job actually means rebuilding most of the house.
    :lol:

    It's not the parts guy, it's the Labour!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    TOPPING said:

    rkrkrk said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    As a change from Brexit Groundhog Day, and anyone with a pulse being better than Trump, tonights Oscar nominations look good.

    https://twitter.com/ThePopcornDiet/status/1087710869625028608?s=19

    I truly am surprised by Black Panther. It's not even the best of the Marvel movies, it's well acted but the plot is very 'meh'. Not sure what so many people see it in to be honest, there was a lot of talk of how it wasn't just another Marvel movie, but it really was.

    .
    Completely disagree. Really enjoyed black panther and thought it was far more interesting than other marvel movies. Showed a complexity of morality that superhero tales don't normally have.
    You would have to threaten me with a Hawaiian Pizza before I went to see The Favourite.
    It'd be worth it so long as you watched it silently, with subtitles.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,149
    edited January 2019
    rottenborough said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1087843024988704769

    What a tremendous waste of time. Can any of these idiots say with a straight face that if they have not agreed up until now they will be able to come to an agreement on something in 3 months, 6 months or 9 months? It's such a 'clever' little idea to disguise its intent.
    I don't care, the way I feel at the moment, at least I will get my wife's meds in April.
    I doubt the EU would agree and there may even be legal challenges

    *Just realised that was thoughtless of me and of course your good lady's medicines top everything. I am sorry
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    rottenborough said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1087843024988704769

    What a tremendous waste of time. Can any of these idiots say with a straight face that if they have not agreed up until now they will be able to come to an agreement on something in 3 months, 6 months or 9 months? It's such a 'clever' little idea to disguise its intent.
    I don't care, the way I feel at the moment, at least I will get my wife's meds in April.
    And obviously we all want that. A better way to get that is to have MPs make a decision now, then ask for an extension to ensure we can make all necessary preparations in time. Since they clearly have no intention of allowing no deal that should be easy, whether it is deal, new deal, referendum or whatever.

    Delaying no deal does not prevent it, preventing no deal prevents it. They do not need another 9 months to ensure your wife continues to get her meds, they can decide that right now, whether they are a dealer or for remain.
This discussion has been closed.