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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Brexit looks set to be the biggest non-election political bett

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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Charles said:

    “Shouldn’t” or “can’t without undermining democracy in this country”


    image
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edb said:

    Charles said:

    edb said:

    Apologies if this is a stupid question.
    Is it possible to agree the WA and then go to "no deal" during transition?
    Would it resolve fears about being trapped in the "permanent backstop" if a mechanism to move to no deal (with suitably long notice period) was added to the WA?
    I am thinking that this could be a way to stumble into transition without ruling out any option (except no Brexit)
    What am I missing

    The EU has explicitly ruled that out. Once in the backstop you can only leave with their permission (unless you repudiate)
    Surely they would think about conceding this if the threatened alternative was immediate chaotic no deal?
    Apparently not.

    The biggest frustration about this whole thing is the sensible outcome is some kind of associate membership - what the U.K. has been pushing for since Major (I think). There have been so many missed opportunities on both sides it’s quite depressing
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    A bit of momentum beginning to build here.

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/jan/22/no-deal-brexit-panic-grips-major-uk-firms

    What next? Wetherspoons to move all their pubs to Belguim would be a great one :lol:

    If there is one thing that could swing me behind Brexit it is the thought that it might compel Wetherspoons to leave and close down all their shitty pubs.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,129
    Wot yer all doin' 'ere? Noo fred.......
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Scott_P said:

    Charles said:

    “Shouldn’t” or “can’t without undermining democracy in this country”


    image
    Every so often I vow to stop responding to your posts because you never add anything if interest to the discussion and aren’t as clever or funny as you think you are.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,720

    A bit of momentum beginning to build here.

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/jan/22/no-deal-brexit-panic-grips-major-uk-firms

    What next? Wetherspoons to move all their pubs to Belguim would be a great one :lol:

    If there is one thing that could swing me behind Brexit it is the thought that it might compel Wetherspoons to leave and close down all their shitty pubs.
    Haha - if only! :lol:
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    glwglw Posts: 9,549
    Sean_F said:

    I go back and forth. The stupidity of the ERG makes it easy for Remain MP's to prevail. But, the latter fear public opinion.

    They should fear it, Remain doesn't resolve the issue, not even close. The People's Vote crowd don't seem to acknowledge that, they seem to think that winning a referendum would end the issue. I would unhesitatingly stake my life on them being wrong about that.

    I personally think that EFTA or something similar would probably piss off the fewest people, but I don't know how we get there from here.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,950
    Scott_P said:
    This is decidedly not what I’ve been experiencing. Fear of Corbyn much greater.

    Would this be a senior Govt minister that wants to Remain, perchance?
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    PlankPlank Posts: 71
    I seem to remember a short time ago an article in the press claiming that even if TMay's deal was agreed we could not now leave by 29/03/2019 as we would need to pass several pieces of legislation first, and there would not be time to do so. If any other PBers also remember that article, and are betting on the market in the header, they may be interested in the interview with Robert Buckland MP (Solicitor General) on PM on BBC Radio 4. In it he says that, in fact, only one piece of legislation would need to be passed before Brexit if Tmay's deal was agreed.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited January 2019
    alex. said:




    Really? It was a post-legislative referendum, wasn't it? ie. the legislation had been past pending the approval of the people. It couldn't be stopped after the vote had happened.

    No. The devolution legislation was passed after the referendums.

    And May voted against both Scottish and Welsh bills. Like a massive hypocrite.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,370
    Charles said:

    Scott_P said:

    Charles said:

    “Shouldn’t” or “can’t without undermining democracy in this country”


    image
    Every so often I vow to stop responding to your posts because you never add anything if interest to the discussion and aren’t as clever or funny as you think you are.
    Yeah but that’s a bloody funny tweet.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,892
    edited January 2019

    Ah, fuck the EU. On the day the mask finally slipped on its ambitions to create a European army, the full-on Franco-German federalist axis reboot, and tax raising powers for the EU Commission; we’re well shot of it.

    Goodnight.

    You sound like the soundtrack for the next Downfall video.
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    PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    Charles said:

    Scott_P said:

    Charles said:

    They can ask for clarification

    Which can of course include clarification of whether the will of the people has changed at all...
    If you concede the public has a right to vote (which of course they do) you can't restrict the choices.
    That would not be democratic
    Politicians have been given an instruction to leave the EU.
    The details are up to them
    Our Conservative politicians have been given instructions to do so by the Russians and the Americans, via a corrupt and rigged referendum. Traditionally the Conservatives were the party of pragmatism - or so they used to tell us. Surely, now that theyhave been found out, it is time for them to have second thoughts.
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    notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006
    Mortimer said:

    Scott_P said:
    This is decidedly not what I’ve been experiencing. Fear of Corbyn much greater.

    Would this be a senior Govt minister that wants to Remain, perchance?
    There’s been a shift, but it’s more towards the older population rather than middle class. If middle class = public sector than probably yes. You can’t keep squeezing people’s wages year on year and not expect push back, even if you are tipping considerable taxes off people with no prospect of ever having a decent pension into keeping theirs topped up. 32% employer contribution going into the fire service pension next year for local council tax payers.
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    notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006
    Alistair said:

    alex. said:




    Really? It was a post-legislative referendum, wasn't it? ie. the legislation had been past pending the approval of the people. It couldn't be stopped after the vote had happened.

    No. The devolution legislation was passed after the referendums.

    And May voted against both Scottish and Welsh bills. Like a massive hypocrite.

    She was wrong then, as second voters are wrong now.
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    notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006
    edb said:

    Seems that adding no deal option to the WA would be no worse for the EU than present situation.

    Making the WA broadly acceptable to ALL leavers might seem like can kicking but crucially it gets you into transition, or at least, dares parliament not to brexit. Once in transition the situation seems better: there is enough time for a real debate (and GE??) on the future relationship, and no particular cliff edge to a default option. Those hoping to crash out by default or remain by stealth would have to choose a plan B, which could of course be campaigning to rejoin or invoke real "managed WTO no deal", but might not be in many cases.

    Once the WA kicks in and we leave, the EU if they choose to could grind us into dust. We become entirely dependent on their goodwill. If you think they French are c***s when we are part of the club, they will get their pound of flesh after we have left and they no longer even have to pretend to be civil.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,310
    Last!
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