I hope somene with better knowledge than me could set out the amendments, the effect, their support, and the overall trajectory for next week and beyond
To be honest I do not have a clue
This very good site is likely to have an explainer on them within a few days. I'll keep a look-out and flag it up when they have one:
I dunno, TMay looks hopelessly incompetent right now but you have to wait to see the outcome.
Imagine parliament "forces" a Remain vs Deal referendum on her. A few months from now we could easily have: * Brexit cancelled * Con leading in polls * TMay still PM * Her enemies marginalized, feuding and discredited
...and people will be asking if she planned the whole thing.
A remainer drug ridden fantasy I'd suggest
Which part don't you buy?
I can imagine Brexit cancelled but the idea there'd still be a functioning Tory party afterwards is shall we say politely a tad unlikely.
That's a problem for all Labour MPs in Leave areas - As shadow Brexit minister Jenny Chapman will have a particular problem squaring the circle as there is little interest in another vote in her constituency...
I dunno, TMay looks hopelessly incompetent right now but you have to wait to see the outcome.
Imagine parliament "forces" a Remain vs Deal referendum on her. A few months from now we could easily have: * Brexit cancelled * Con leading in polls * TMay still PM * Her enemies marginalized, feuding and discredited
...and people will be asking if she planned the whole thing.
A remainer drug ridden fantasy I'd suggest
Which part don't you buy?
I can imagine Brexit cancelled but the idea there'd still be a functioning Tory party afterwards is shall we say politely a tad unlikely.
What do you think would happen to the Tory Party specifically? Is everybody going to leave?
Those plotting to resign backed her in the confidence vote (presumably). Why did they do so if hey were so unhappy with her leadership!? She's never given any indication she would compromise with Remainers despite obvious parliamentary arithmetic, so what did these ministers expect!?
That 's been the odd thing. Why the hell did people who loathe Thersa May keep her in office?
Because they want to advance their careers and she's the blame sponge. They keep their heads down, she messes up, they come out of der bunker and rule the rubble.
I thought that was the strategy years ago, since dealing with Brexit was likely to destroy whoever was at the helm. But it's been so incompetent there may not be survivors from out of the bunker, and they should have taken their chances and fled.
As they will, I am sure, claim later they opposed what May was doing, they intend to treat us all like absolute cretins, by pretending they had no choice.
Nahh. They'll just blame the EU/Remainers/May/the weather/small dogs/insufficient soap/Gloria Estefan/anything...
I dunno, TMay looks hopelessly incompetent right now but you have to wait to see the outcome.
Imagine parliament "forces" a Remain vs Deal referendum on her. A few months from now we could easily have: * Brexit cancelled * Con leading in polls * TMay still PM * Her enemies marginalized, feuding and discredited
...and people will be asking if she planned the whole thing.
A remainer drug ridden fantasy I'd suggest
Which part don't you buy?
I can imagine Brexit cancelled but the idea there'd still be a functioning Tory party afterwards is shall we say politely a tad unlikely.
If Brexit gets cancelled, then I think Farage's new party will be riding high in the polls.
If Brexit were cancelled after a referendum, a Farage party would have some tricky positioning to do.
I dunno, TMay looks hopelessly incompetent right now but you have to wait to see the outcome.
Imagine parliament "forces" a Remain vs Deal referendum on her. A few months from now we could easily have: * Brexit cancelled * Con leading in polls * TMay still PM * Her enemies marginalized, feuding and discredited
...and people will be asking if she planned the whole thing.
A remainer drug ridden fantasy I'd suggest
Which part don't you buy?
I can imagine Brexit cancelled but the idea there'd still be a functioning Tory party afterwards is shall we say politely a tad unlikely.
If Brexit gets cancelled, then I think Farage's new party will be riding high in the polls.
I dunno, TMay looks hopelessly incompetent right now but you have to wait to see the outcome.
Imagine parliament "forces" a Remain vs Deal referendum on her. A few months from now we could easily have: * Brexit cancelled * Con leading in polls * TMay still PM * Her enemies marginalized, feuding and discredited
...and people will be asking if she planned the whole thing.
A remainer drug ridden fantasy I'd suggest
Which part don't you buy?
I can imagine Brexit cancelled but the idea there'd still be a functioning Tory party afterwards is shall we say politely a tad unlikely.
If Brexit gets cancelled, then I think Farage's new party will be riding high in the polls.
If Brexit were cancelled after a referendum, a Farage party would have some tricky positioning to do.
Why?
Remain refused to accept the result of the first referendum, so why should we accept the result of the second?
I hope somene with better knowledge than me could set out the amendments, the effect, their support, and the overall trajectory for next week and beyond
To be honest I do not have a clue
Be careful. You could be in line for a Cabinet role if you keep on like that.
I dunno, TMay looks hopelessly incompetent right now but you have to wait to see the outcome.
Imagine parliament "forces" a Remain vs Deal referendum on her. A few months from now we could easily have: * Brexit cancelled * Con leading in polls * TMay still PM * Her enemies marginalized, feuding and discredited
...and people will be asking if she planned the whole thing.
A remainer drug ridden fantasy I'd suggest
Which part don't you buy?
I can imagine Brexit cancelled but the idea there'd still be a functioning Tory party afterwards is shall we say politely a tad unlikely.
If Brexit gets cancelled, then I think Farage's new party will be riding high in the polls.
This is going to happen either way (since there is no possible outcome where anti-EU people don't think they were betrayed) but Labour are just as implicated and the Tories, and they're still led by Jeremy Corbyn, so the Tories are still favourites for 2022.
Excuse the segue, but this illuminates something I find incredibly annoying: namely, are we getting Cabinet leaks in real-time now? It's gotten so bad you could go thru the leaks and construct the meetings minute-by-minute. It's really annoying
We may as well have the meetings streamed to us live.
"And tonight in the Big Brother House, Phil and Theresa are drinking tea in the garden, while Boris makes love to himself..."
This is all very plausible and may be true but in fact we are going to have to wait quite a time to discover whether something very like TMs deal will in the end prevail as the worst of ideas except for all the others. For what it is worth I think it will. It is not even impossible that it would prevail after a 'no-deal' exit on 29th March. I don't think anything in Article 50 prevents it.
It's also the case that far too much comment has confused the WA with the final settlement; which is to confuse journey and destination
I dunno, TMay looks hopelessly incompetent right now but you have to wait to see the outcome.
Imagine parliament "forces" a Remain vs Deal referendum on her. A few months from now we could easily have: * Brexit cancelled * Con leading in polls * TMay still PM * Her enemies marginalized, feuding and discredited
...and people will be asking if she planned the whole thing.
A remainer drug ridden fantasy I'd suggest
Which part don't you buy?
I can imagine Brexit cancelled but the idea there'd still be a functioning Tory party afterwards is shall we say politely a tad unlikely.
If Brexit gets cancelled, then I think Farage's new party will be riding high in the polls.
I'd vote for it.
And me I think - certainly not the tories if they destroy brexit
I dunno, TMay looks hopelessly incompetent right now but you have to wait to see the outcome.
Imagine parliament "forces" a Remain vs Deal referendum on her. A few months from now we could easily have: * Brexit cancelled * Con leading in polls * TMay still PM * Her enemies marginalized, feuding and discredited
...and people will be asking if she planned the whole thing.
A remainer drug ridden fantasy I'd suggest
Which part don't you buy?
I can imagine Brexit cancelled but the idea there'd still be a functioning Tory party afterwards is shall we say politely a tad unlikely.
If Brexit gets cancelled, then I think Farage's new party will be riding high in the polls.
I'd vote for it.
You might want to wait for what comes out of the Mueller investigation and the NCA's investigation into Arron Banks' donations to the Leave campaign before harnessing your sails to Farage's mast.
I dunno, TMay looks hopelessly incompetent right now but you have to wait to see the outcome.
Imagine parliament "forces" a Remain vs Deal referendum on her. A few months from now we could easily have: * Brexit cancelled * Con leading in polls * TMay still PM * Her enemies marginalized, feuding and discredited
...and people will be asking if she planned the whole thing.
A remainer drug ridden fantasy I'd suggest
Which part don't you buy?
I can imagine Brexit cancelled but the idea there'd still be a functioning Tory party afterwards is shall we say politely a tad unlikely.
There's a functioning Tory party now?!?
Well strangely the Tory party does still function quite well outside Westminster.
I dunno, TMay looks hopelessly incompetent right now but you have to wait to see the outcome.
Imagine parliament "forces" a Remain vs Deal referendum on her. A few months from now we could easily have: * Brexit cancelled * Con leading in polls * TMay still PM * Her enemies marginalized, feuding and discredited
...and people will be asking if she planned the whole thing.
A remainer drug ridden fantasy I'd suggest
Which part don't you buy?
I can imagine Brexit cancelled but the idea there'd still be a functioning Tory party afterwards is shall we say politely a tad unlikely.
If Brexit gets cancelled, then I think Farage's new party will be riding high in the polls.
If Brexit were cancelled after a referendum, a Farage party would have some tricky positioning to do.
Why?
Remain refused to accept the result of the first referendum, so why should we accept the result of the second?
It's not about acceptance but about electoral appeal. Farage rode the wave before the referendum because mainstream politicians progressively legitimised fringe Eurosceptic positions.
That dynamic will now go into reverse. Saying "let's leave the EU" will go down like a lead balloon with people who are sick of hearing about Brexit and never want to hear the word again.
I dunno, TMay looks hopelessly incompetent right now but you have to wait to see the outcome.
Imagine parliament "forces" a Remain vs Deal referendum on her. A few months from now we could easily have: * Brexit cancelled * Con leading in polls * TMay still PM * Her enemies marginalized, feuding and discredited
...and people will be asking if she planned the whole thing.
A remainer drug ridden fantasy I'd suggest
Which part don't you buy?
I can imagine Brexit cancelled but the idea there'd still be a functioning Tory party afterwards is shall we say politely a tad unlikely.
If Brexit gets cancelled, then I think Farage's new party will be riding high in the polls.
I'd vote for it.
You might want to wait for what comes out of the Mueller investigation and the NCA's investigation into Arron Banks' donations to the Leave campaign before harnessing your sails to Farage's mast.
Well yes if it's turns out Farage is a criminal then he'll be in jail and nobody will be voting for him obviously...
I dunno, TMay looks hopelessly incompetent right now but you have to wait to see the outcome.
Imagine parliament "forces" a Remain vs Deal referendum on her. A few months from now we could easily have: * Brexit cancelled * Con leading in polls * TMay still PM * Her enemies marginalized, feuding and discredited
...and people will be asking if she planned the whole thing.
A remainer drug ridden fantasy I'd suggest
Which part don't you buy?
I can imagine Brexit cancelled but the idea there'd still be a functioning Tory party afterwards is shall we say politely a tad unlikely.
If Brexit gets cancelled, then I think Farage's new party will be riding high in the polls.
I'd vote for it.
And me I think - certainly not the tories if they destroy brexit
Given you regularly lash Corbyn for the stench of Anti-Semitism around Labour you're prepared to vote for a party led by Farage who said the 'Jewish lobby' has disproportionate power in the US?
I dunno, TMay looks hopelessly incompetent right now but you have to wait to see the outcome.
Imagine parliament "forces" a Remain vs Deal referendum on her. A few months from now we could easily have: * Brexit cancelled * Con leading in polls * TMay still PM * Her enemies marginalized, feuding and discredited
...and people will be asking if she planned the whole thing.
A remainer drug ridden fantasy I'd suggest
Which part don't you buy?
I can imagine Brexit cancelled but the idea there'd still be a functioning Tory party afterwards is shall we say politely a tad unlikely.
If Brexit gets cancelled, then I think Farage's new party will be riding high in the polls.
I'd vote for it.
And me I think - certainly not the tories if they destroy brexit
In all seriousness if Brexit goes down it will be because the ERG overstretched
It will be a cohort of labour, snp, lib dems, plaid and a small number of conservatives who take it down
This is all very plausible and may be true but in fact we are going to have to wait quite a time to discover whether something very like TMs deal will in the end prevail as the worst of ideas except for all the others. For what it is worth I think it will. It is not even impossible that it would prevail after a 'no-deal' exit on 29th March. I don't think anything in Article 50 prevents it.
It's also the case that far too much comment has confused the WA with the final settlement; which is to confuse journey and destination
You raise a good point. I had not thought that, in the event we end up in No Deal land and the impact is severe, the UK may be tempted to quickly pass the Deal and the EU may be happy to apply it in quick order.
Even a short period of No Deal chaos will leave a big footprint though (what would be the tariff status of goods which moved between March 29th and the Deal eventually being agreed?)
I dunno, TMay looks hopelessly incompetent right now but you have to wait to see the outcome.
Imagine parliament "forces" a Remain vs Deal referendum on her. A few months from now we could easily have: * Brexit cancelled * Con leading in polls * TMay still PM * Her enemies marginalized, feuding and discredited
...and people will be asking if she planned the whole thing.
A remainer drug ridden fantasy I'd suggest
Which part don't you buy?
I can imagine Brexit cancelled but the idea there'd still be a functioning Tory party afterwards is shall we say politely a tad unlikely.
If Brexit gets cancelled, then I think Farage's new party will be riding high in the polls.
If Brexit were cancelled after a referendum, a Farage party would have some tricky positioning to do.
Why? 38% or so favour a No Deal Brexit. That 's a large constituency.
I dunno, TMay looks hopelessly incompetent right now but you have to wait to see the outcome.
Imagine parliament "forces" a Remain vs Deal referendum on her. A few months from now we could easily have: * Brexit cancelled * Con leading in polls * TMay still PM * Her enemies marginalized, feuding and discredited
...and people will be asking if she planned the whole thing.
A remainer drug ridden fantasy I'd suggest
Which part don't you buy?
I can imagine Brexit cancelled but the idea there'd still be a functioning Tory party afterwards is shall we say politely a tad unlikely.
If Brexit gets cancelled, then I think Farage's new party will be riding high in the polls.
I'd vote for it.
And me I think - certainly not the tories if they destroy brexit
In all seriousness if Brexit goes down it will be because the ERG overstretched
It will be a cohort of labour, snp, lib dems, plaid and a small number of conservatives who take it down
If Brexit goes down it will be because the Tory Party could not be positive about it. They have treated it as a damage limitation exercise. The Govt has been issuing project fear propaganda against itself. They have literally been saying we are rubbish. It has just been amazing and incomprehensible to watch.
Couldn't agree more. May has provided a complete vacuum where leadership was required. Anyone, even Andrea Leadsom, would have been better than this. They could hardly have been worse!
I tried speculating last night if there are any MPs who would be worse in this particular situation. Not that she does not have some qualities better than many, but thinking about how she is so clearly wrong for this situation as she is unwilling to act and is just pursuing options she knows will not work just to delay.
All I came up with were Chris Williamson and Chris Chope as being worse, but there have to be a full handful at least. Suggestions?
Andrew Bridgen, Iain Duncan Smith, Peter Bone, Mark Francois, Steve Baker, and the woman who I helped to elect, Andrea Jenkyns, though I think David Herdson deserves the lion's share of the credit for that.
You and David preferred Andrea Jenkyns to Ed Balls? You have never shown signs of being stark raving bonkers before.
I dunno, TMay looks hopelessly incompetent right now but you have to wait to see the outcome.
Imagine parliament "forces" a Remain vs Deal referendum on her. A few months from now we could easily have: * Brexit cancelled * Con leading in polls * TMay still PM * Her enemies marginalized, feuding and discredited
...and people will be asking if she planned the whole thing.
A remainer drug ridden fantasy I'd suggest
Which part don't you buy?
I can imagine Brexit cancelled but the idea there'd still be a functioning Tory party afterwards is shall we say politely a tad unlikely.
If Brexit gets cancelled, then I think Farage's new party will be riding high in the polls.
If Brexit were cancelled after a referendum, a Farage party would have some tricky positioning to do.
Why? 38% or so favour a No Deal Brexit. That 's a large constituency.
Don't forget 26% of that 38% think No Deal means Stay In.
I dunno, TMay looks hopelessly incompetent right now but you have to wait to see the outcome.
Imagine parliament "forces" a Remain vs Deal referendum on her. A few months from now we could easily have: * Brexit cancelled * Con leading in polls * TMay still PM * Her enemies marginalized, feuding and discredited
...and people will be asking if she planned the whole thing.
A remainer drug ridden fantasy I'd suggest
Which part don't you buy?
I can imagine Brexit cancelled but the idea there'd still be a functioning Tory party afterwards is shall we say politely a tad unlikely.
If Brexit gets cancelled, then I think Farage's new party will be riding high in the polls.
If Brexit were cancelled after a referendum, a Farage party would have some tricky positioning to do.
Why? 38% or so favour a No Deal Brexit. That 's a large constituency.
That support has an expiry date. You won't be able to resurrect it when we're no longer in a stand off with the EU.
This is all very plausible and may be true but in fact we are going to have to wait quite a time to discover whether something very like TMs deal will in the end prevail as the worst of ideas except for all the others. For what it is worth I think it will. It is not even impossible that it would prevail after a 'no-deal' exit on 29th March. I don't think anything in Article 50 prevents it.
It's also the case that far too much comment has confused the WA with the final settlement; which is to confuse journey and destination
You raise a good point. I had not thought that, in the event we end up in No Deal land and the impact is severe, the UK may be tempted to quickly pass the Deal and the EU may be happy to apply it in quick order.
Even a short period of No Deal chaos will leave a big footprint though (what would be the tariff status of goods which moved between March 29th and the Deal eventually being agreed?)
I think that No Deal would most likely result a couple of weeks later with the WA.
I dunno, TMay looks hopelessly incompetent right now but you have to wait to see the outcome.
Imagine parliament "forces" a Remain vs Deal referendum on her. A few months from now we could easily have: * Brexit cancelled * Con leading in polls * TMay still PM * Her enemies marginalized, feuding and discredited
...and people will be asking if she planned the whole thing.
A remainer drug ridden fantasy I'd suggest
Which part don't you buy?
I can imagine Brexit cancelled but the idea there'd still be a functioning Tory party afterwards is shall we say politely a tad unlikely.
If Brexit gets cancelled, then I think Farage's new party will be riding high in the polls.
If Brexit were cancelled after a referendum, a Farage party would have some tricky positioning to do.
Why? 38% or so favour a No Deal Brexit. That 's a large constituency.
26%+ of No Deal Brexit's think that No Deal means we remain in the EU.....
I dunno, TMay looks hopelessly incompetent right now but you have to wait to see the outcome.
Imagine parliament "forces" a Remain vs Deal referendum on her. A few months from now we could easily have: * Brexit cancelled * Con leading in polls * TMay still PM * Her enemies marginalized, feuding and discredited
...and people will be asking if she planned the whole thing.
A remainer drug ridden fantasy I'd suggest
Which part don't you buy?
I can imagine Brexit cancelled but the idea there'd still be a functioning Tory party afterwards is shall we say politely a tad unlikely.
If Brexit gets cancelled, then I think Farage's new party will be riding high in the polls.
I'd vote for it.
And me I think - certainly not the tories if they destroy brexit
In all seriousness if Brexit goes down it will be because the ERG overstretched
It will be a cohort of labour, snp, lib dems, plaid and a small number of conservatives who take it down
No it will be because May threw away the majority leaving an irreconcilable majority in favour of Remain/frustrating the Tories.
The Tories have not really had a leader worthy of the name since Thatcher - none of her successors has tried to take the party out of its comfort zone or challenged the unrealistic preconceptions of its membership. May is the latest in a long line of mediocrities who have placed the prejudices of the ageing, shrinking band of activists ahead of everything else, including those of the country. History will not look kindly on any of them, May least of all.
How does Cameron fit in that? For all his many faults, he did modernise the party, before the reactionaries took it back.
His modernisation was merely cosmetic, photos with huskies, hug a hoodie etc. With the sole exception of gay marriage Cameron's "modernisation" was skin deep and, as we have discussed here many times, he failed to tackle the fundamental issue of Europe with results we will all be living with for decades to come.
This is all very plausible and may be true but in fact we are going to have to wait quite a time to discover whether something very like TMs deal will in the end prevail as the worst of ideas except for all the others. For what it is worth I think it will. It is not even impossible that it would prevail after a 'no-deal' exit on 29th March. I don't think anything in Article 50 prevents it.
It's also the case that far too much comment has confused the WA with the final settlement; which is to confuse journey and destination
You raise a good point. I had not thought that, in the event we end up in No Deal land and the impact is severe, the UK may be tempted to quickly pass the Deal and the EU may be happy to apply it in quick order.
Even a short period of No Deal chaos will leave a big footprint though (what would be the tariff status of goods which moved between March 29th and the Deal eventually being agreed?)
I think that No Deal would most likely result a couple of weeks later with the WA.
Yes, I am inclined to agree now that @algarkirk has pointed it out to me.
I dunno, TMay looks hopelessly incompetent right now but you have to wait to see the outcome.
Imagine parliament "forces" a Remain vs Deal referendum on her. A few months from now we could easily have: * Brexit cancelled * Con leading in polls * TMay still PM * Her enemies marginalized, feuding and discredited
...and people will be asking if she planned the whole thing.
A remainer drug ridden fantasy I'd suggest
Which part don't you buy?
I can imagine Brexit cancelled but the idea there'd still be a functioning Tory party afterwards is shall we say politely a tad unlikely.
What do you think would happen to the Tory Party specifically? Is everybody going to leave?
Difficult to say but it would certainly involve the loss of key people including some agents at a local level and the resignations of many members.
This is all very plausible and may be true but in fact we are going to have to wait quite a time to discover whether something very like TMs deal will in the end prevail as the worst of ideas except for all the others. For what it is worth I think it will. It is not even impossible that it would prevail after a 'no-deal' exit on 29th March. I don't think anything in Article 50 prevents it.
It's also the case that far too much comment has confused the WA with the final settlement; which is to confuse journey and destination
You raise a good point. I had not thought that, in the event we end up in No Deal land and the impact is severe, the UK may be tempted to quickly pass the Deal and the EU may be happy to apply it in quick order.
Even a short period of No Deal chaos will leave a big footprint though (what would be the tariff status of goods which moved between March 29th and the Deal eventually being agreed?)
Has the EU said that the current WA would be available after 29 March?
They might be tempted - in the circumstances you describe - to impose a few more conditions, if Britain were desperate for a transition deal.
Unfair? Possibly. But the temptation to teach Britain a lesson will be there, from some EU countries, anyway. For instance, some affected countries might want to seek specific compensation for the damage suffered in the interim.
But sometimes it's the first offer which is the best, not the last, especially not if you're desperate or more desperate than your counterpart, and they're in a stronger position than you.
This is all very plausible and may be true but in fact we are going to have to wait quite a time to discover whether something very like TMs deal will in the end prevail as the worst of ideas except for all the others. For what it is worth I think it will. It is not even impossible that it would prevail after a 'no-deal' exit on 29th March. I don't think anything in Article 50 prevents it.
It's also the case that far too much comment has confused the WA with the final settlement; which is to confuse journey and destination
You raise a good point. I had not thought that, in the event we end up in No Deal land and the impact is severe, the UK may be tempted to quickly pass the Deal and the EU may be happy to apply it in quick order.
Even a short period of No Deal chaos will leave a big footprint though (what would be the tariff status of goods which moved between March 29th and the Deal eventually being agreed?)
I think that No Deal would most likely result a couple of weeks later with the WA.
I think if confronted by flames in the road people will slam the accelerator, thinking they'll come out ok on the other side. And it will work in the short term because it'll be a more positive message.
Couldn't agree more. May has provided a complete vacuum where leadership was required. Anyone, even Andrea Leadsom, would have been better than this. They could hardly have been worse!
I tried speculating last night if there are any MPs who would be worse in this particular situation. Not that she does not have some qualities better than many, but thinking about how she is so clearly wrong for this situation as she is unwilling to act and is just pursuing options she knows will not work just to delay.
All I came up with were Chris Williamson and Chris Chope as being worse, but there have to be a full handful at least. Suggestions?
Andrew Bridgen, Iain Duncan Smith, Peter Bone, Mark Francois, Steve Baker, and the woman who I helped to elect, Andrea Jenkyns, though I think David Herdson deserves the lion's share of the credit for that.
You and David preferred Andrea Jenkyns to Ed Balls? You have never shown signs of being stark raving bonkers before.
Couldn't agree more. May has provided a complete vacuum where leadership was required. Anyone, even Andrea Leadsom, would have been better than this. They could hardly have been worse!
I tried speculating last night if there are any MPs who would be worse in this particular situation. Not that she does not have some qualities better than many, but thinking about how she is so clearly wrong for this situation as she is unwilling to act and is just pursuing options she knows will not work just to delay.
All I came up with were Chris Williamson and Chris Chope as being worse, but there have to be a full handful at least. Suggestions?
Andrew Bridgen, Iain Duncan Smith, Peter Bone, Mark Francois, Steve Baker, and the woman who I helped to elect, Andrea Jenkyns, though I think David Herdson deserves the lion's share of the credit for that.
You and David preferred Andrea Jenkyns to Ed Balls? You have never shown signs of being stark raving bonkers before.
I'd be truly mortified if that were me TSE.
Until someone is elected you cannot always tell their quality. It's why we trust to the brand.
I dunno, TMay looks hopelessly incompetent right now but you have to wait to see the outcome.
Imagine parliament "forces" a Remain vs Deal referendum on her. A few months from now we could easily have: * Brexit cancelled * Con leading in polls * TMay still PM * Her enemies marginalized, feuding and discredited
...and people will be asking if she planned the whole thing.
A remainer drug ridden fantasy I'd suggest
Which part don't you buy?
Iunlikely.
If Brexit gets cancelled, then I think Farage's new party will be riding high in the polls.
If Brexit were cancelled after a referendum, a Farage party would have some tricky positioning to do.
Why? 38% or so favour a No Deal Brexit. That 's a large constituency.
Don't forget 26% of that 38% think No Deal means Stay In.
I dunno, TMay looks hopelessly incompetent right now but you have to wait to see the outcome.
Imagine parliament "forces" a Remain vs Deal referendum on her. A few months from now we could easily have: * Brexit cancelled * Con leading in polls * TMay still PM * Her enemies marginalized, feuding and discredited
...and people will be asking if she planned the whole thing.
A remainer drug ridden fantasy I'd suggest
Which part don't you buy?
I can imagine Brexit cancelled but the idea there'd still be a functioning Tory party afterwards is shall we say politely a tad unlikely.
If Brexit gets cancelled, then I think Farage's new party will be riding high in the polls.
If Brexit were cancelled after a referendum, a Farage party would have some tricky positioning to do.
Why? 38% or so favour a No Deal Brexit. That 's a large constituency.
That support has an expiry date. You won't be able to resurrect it when we're no longer in a stand off with the EU.
Easily. It's a hell of a lot of people who want out.
This is all very plausible and may be true but in fact we are going to have to wait quite a time to discover whether something very like TMs deal will in the end prevail as the worst of ideas except for all the others. For what it is worth I think it will. It is not even impossible that it would prevail after a 'no-deal' exit on 29th March. I don't think anything in Article 50 prevents it.
It's also the case that far too much comment has confused the WA with the final settlement; which is to confuse journey and destination
You raise a good point. I had not thought that, in the event we end up in No Deal land and the impact is severe, the UK may be tempted to quickly pass the Deal and the EU may be happy to apply it in quick order.
Even a short period of No Deal chaos will leave a big footprint though (what would be the tariff status of goods which moved between March 29th and the Deal eventually being agreed?)
I think that No Deal would most likely result a couple of weeks later with the WA.
I think if confronted by flames in the road people will slam the accelerator, thinking they'll come out ok on the other side. And it will work in the short term because it'll be a more positive message.
Until the tyres melt, and the occupants asphyxiate
This is all very plausible and may be true but in fact we are going to have to wait quite a time to discover whether something very like TMs deal will in the end prevail as the worst of ideas except for all the others. For what it is worth I think it will. It is not even impossible that it would prevail after a 'no-deal' exit on 29th March. I don't think anything in Article 50 prevents it.
It's also the case that far too much comment has confused the WA with the final settlement; which is to confuse journey and destination
That's true, but I don't see how that changes. The ingredients for political paralysis seem strong enough to survive the immediate impacts of no deal, particularly when the stodge's of the world are mocking anyone who worries about it.
I dunno, TMay looks hopelessly incompetent right now but you have to wait to see the outcome.
Imagine parliament "forces" a Remain vs Deal referendum on her. A few months from now we could easily have: * Brexit cancelled * Con leading in polls * TMay still PM * Her enemies marginalized, feuding and discredited
...and people will be asking if she planned the whole thing.
A remainer drug ridden fantasy I'd suggest
Which part don't you buy?
Iunlikely.
If Brexit gets cancelled, then I think Farage's new party will be riding high in the polls.
If Brexit were cancelled after a referendum, a Farage party would have some tricky positioning to do.
Why? 38% or so favour a No Deal Brexit. That 's a large constituency.
Don't forget 26% of that 38% think No Deal means Stay In.
This is all very plausible and may be true but in fact we are going to have to wait quite a time to discover whether something very like TMs deal will in the end prevail as the worst of ideas except for all the others. For what it is worth I think it will. It is not even impossible that it would prevail after a 'no-deal' exit on 29th March. I don't think anything in Article 50 prevents it.
It's also the case that far too much comment has confused the WA with the final settlement; which is to confuse journey and destination
You raise a good point. I had not thought that, in the event we end up in No Deal land and the impact is severe, the UK may be tempted to quickly pass the Deal and the EU may be happy to apply it in quick order.
Even a short period of No Deal chaos will leave a big footprint though (what would be the tariff status of goods which moved between March 29th and the Deal eventually being agreed?)
I think that No Deal would most likely result a couple of weeks later with the WA.
I think if confronted by flames in the road people will slam the accelerator, thinking they'll come out ok on the other side. And it will work in the short term because it'll be a more positive message.
Until the tyres melt, and the occupants asphyxiate
One clever thing May has done is the £65 thing. That's the headline on the BBC main page, rather than her redundant plan which has already been attempted.
Couldn't agree more. May has provided a complete vacuum where leadership was required. Anyone, even Andrea Leadsom, would have been better than this. They could hardly have been worse!
I tried speculating last night if there are any MPs who would be worse in this particular situation. Not that she does not have some qualities better than many, but thinking about how she is so clearly wrong for this situation as she is unwilling to act and is just pursuing options she knows will not work just to delay.
All I came up with were Chris Williamson and Chris Chope as being worse, but there have to be a full handful at least. Suggestions?
Andrew Bridgen, Iain Duncan Smith, Peter Bone, Mark Francois, Steve Baker, and the woman who I helped to elect, Andrea Jenkyns, though I think David Herdson deserves the lion's share of the credit for that.
You and David preferred Andrea Jenkyns to Ed Balls? You have never shown signs of being stark raving bonkers before.
To be fair, she’d probably have been shit on Strictly.....
One clever thing May has done is the £65 thing. That's the headline on the BBC main page, rather than her redundant plan which has already been attempted.
That’s more a reflection of gullibility at the BBC than cleverness in May.
There have been two further security alerts in Derry this Monday evening, sparked by an abandoned lorry near the Glen and the reported attempted hijacking of a bus in Galliagh, the PSNI have confirmed.
I dunno, TMay looks hopelessly incompetent right now but you have to wait to see the outcome.
Imagine parliament "forces" a Remain vs Deal referendum on her. A few months from now we could easily have: * Brexit cancelled * Con leading in polls * TMay still PM * Her enemies marginalized, feuding and discredited
...and people will be asking if she planned the whole thing.
A remainer drug ridden fantasy I'd suggest
Which part don't you buy?
I can imagine Brexit cancelled but the idea there'd still be a functioning Tory party afterwards is shall we say politely a tad unlikely.
If Brexit gets cancelled, then I think Farage's new party will be riding high in the polls.
If Brexit were cancelled after a referendum, a Farage party would have some tricky positioning to do.
Why? 38% or so favour a No Deal Brexit. That 's a large constituency.
28% according to ICM. It’s vaguely reassuring that less than a third of my countrymen and women are imbeciles.
I dunno, TMay looks hopelessly incompetent right now but you have to wait to see the outcome.
Imagine parliament "forces" a Remain vs Deal referendum on her. A few months from now we could easily have: * Brexit cancelled * Con leading in polls * TMay still PM * Her enemies marginalized, feuding and discredited
...and people will be asking if she planned the whole thing.
A remainer drug ridden fantasy I'd suggest
Which part don't you buy?
I can imagine Brexit cancelled but the idea there'd still be a functioning Tory party afterwards is shall we say politely a tad unlikely.
If Brexit gets cancelled, then I think Farage's new party will be riding high in the polls.
If Brexit were cancelled after a referendum, a Farage party would have some tricky positioning to do.
Why?
Remain refused to accept the result of the first referendum, so why should we accept the result of the second?
It's not about acceptance but about electoral appeal. Farage rode the wave before the referendum because mainstream politicians progressively legitimised fringe Eurosceptic positions.
That dynamic will now go into reverse. Saying "let's leave the EU" will go down like a lead balloon with people who are sick of hearing about Brexit and never want to hear the word again.
Still living in that fantasy world William. The problems of the last few months have made hatred of the EU even greater amongst Leavers. There is no turning that back. No matter what happens now a huge part of the British public will continue to hate both the EU and its supporters.
I don't think it is a sensible attitude but it is becoming ever more prevalent and I suspect it accounts for that growth in No Deal support.
This is all very plausible and may be true but in fact we are going to have to wait quite a time to discover whether something very like TMs deal will in the end prevail as the worst of ideas except for all the others. For what it is worth I think it will. It is not even impossible that it would prevail after a 'no-deal' exit on 29th March. I don't think anything in Article 50 prevents it.
It's also the case that far too much comment has confused the WA with the final settlement; which is to confuse journey and destination
You raise a good point. I had not thought that, in the event we end up in No Deal land and the impact is severe, the UK may be tempted to quickly pass the Deal and the EU may be happy to apply it in quick order.
Even a short period of No Deal chaos will leave a big footprint though (what would be the tariff status of goods which moved between March 29th and the Deal eventually being agreed?)
Has the EU said that the current WA would be available after 29 March?
They might be tempted - in the circumstances you describe - to impose a few more conditions, if Britain were desperate for a transition deal.
Unfair? Possibly. But the temptation to teach Britain a lesson will be there, from some EU countries, anyway. For instance, some affected countries might want to seek specific compensation for the damage suffered in the interim.
But sometimes it's the first offer which is the best, not the last, especially not if you're desperate or more desperate than your counterpart, and they're in a stronger position than you.
All of that is true. But if the disruption is severe I think any hurdles in the way of the WA would all be swept away in a week or so.
Of course, if the ERG headbangers are right and the disruption is minimal then we would work it out as we go along.
But I think there are far, far too many things that will not work very well for the cumulative effect to be anything other than chaos.
And No Dealers should be well aware that all those voters who currently support No Deal will evaporate away faster than a puddle in the desert if it all goes pear-shaped - they will quickly claim to have been 'totally misled by politicians' or similar.
This is all very plausible and may be true but in fact we are going to have to wait quite a time to discover whether something very like TMs deal will in the end prevail as the worst of ideas except for all the others. For what it is worth I think it will. It is not even impossible that it would prevail after a 'no-deal' exit on 29th March. I don't think anything in Article 50 prevents it.
It's also the case that far too much comment has confused the WA with the final settlement; which is to confuse journey and destination
You raise a good point. I had not thought that, in the event we end up in No Deal land and the impact is severe, the UK may be tempted to quickly pass the Deal and the EU may be happy to apply it in quick order.
Even a short period of No Deal chaos will leave a big footprint though (what would be the tariff status of goods which moved between March 29th and the Deal eventually being agreed?)
I think that No Deal would most likely result a couple of weeks later with the WA.
I think if confronted by flames in the road people will slam the accelerator, thinking they'll come out ok on the other side. And it will work in the short term because it'll be a more positive message.
Until the tyres melt, and the occupants asphyxiate
Isn't the legal position that if the WA is not agreed and enacted by 29 March (and assuming no extension of Article 50) then at that point Britain becomes a third country.
Legally, I'm not at all sure that the EU could sign a Withdrawal Agreement with a third country. It would not make any sense. All the rights and obligations of being a Member State would have gone and there would have been no mechanism to preserve them - as the WA does.
So you'd be looking to reinstate them in some way i.e. a sort of rejoining in order then to leave via a transition agreement.
This is all very plausible and may be true but in fact we are going to have to wait quite a time to discover whether something very like TMs deal will in the end prevail as the worst of ideas except for all the others. For what it is worth I think it will. It is not even impossible that it would prevail after a 'no-deal' exit on 29th March. I don't think anything in Article 50 prevents it.
It's also the case that far too much comment has confused the WA with the final settlement; which is to confuse journey and destination
You raise a good point. I had not thought that, in the event we end up in No Deal land and the impact is severe, the UK may be tempted to quickly pass the Deal and the EU may be happy to apply it in quick order.
Even a short period of No Deal chaos will leave a big footprint though (what would be the tariff status of goods which moved between March 29th and the Deal eventually being agreed?)
I think that No Deal would most likely result a couple of weeks later with the WA.
Yes, I am inclined to agree now that @algarkirk has pointed it out to me.
The Tories have not really had a leader worthy of the name since Thatcher - none of her successors has tried to take the party out of its comfort zone or challenged the unrealistic preconceptions of its membership. May is the latest in a long line of mediocrities who have placed the prejudices of the ageing, shrinking band of activists ahead of everything else, including those of the country. History will not look kindly on any of them, May least of all.
How does Cameron fit in that? For all his many faults, he did modernise the party, before the reactionaries took it back.
Which shows he never modernised it. He ended up doing what Blair did - he pushed his party to its extreme.
I dunno, TMay looks hopelessly incompetent right now but you have to wait to see the outcome.
Imagine parliament "forces" a Remain vs Deal referendum on her. A few months from now we could easily have: * Brexit cancelled * Con leading in polls * TMay still PM * Her enemies marginalized, feuding and discredited
...and people will be asking if she planned the whole thing.
A remainer drug ridden fantasy I'd suggest
Which part don't you buy?
I can imagine Brexit cancelled but the idea there'd still be a functioning Tory party afterwards is shall we say politely a tad unlikely.
If Brexit gets cancelled, then I think Farage's new party will be riding high in the polls.
If Brexit were cancelled after a referendum, a Farage party would have some tricky positioning to do.
Why?
Remain refused to accept the result of the first referendum, so why should we accept the result of the second?
It's not about acceptance but about electoral appeal. Farage rode the wave before the referendum because mainstream politicians progressively legitimised fringe Eurosceptic positions.
That dynamic will now go into reverse. Saying "let's leave the EU" will go down like a lead balloon with people who are sick of hearing about Brexit and never want to hear the word again.
Still living in that fantasy world William. The problems of the last few months have made hatred of the EU even greater amongst Leavers. There is no turning that back. No matter what happens now a huge part of the British public will continue to hate both the EU and it's supporters.
I don't think it is a sensible attitude but it is becoming ever more prevalent and I suspect it accounts for that growth in No Deal support.
It doesn't matter how much you hate the EU. You still only get one vote.
This is all very plausible and may be true but in fact we are going to have to wait quite a time to discover whether something very like TMs deal will in the end prevail as the worst of ideas except for all the others. For what it is worth I think it will. It is not even impossible that it would prevail after a 'no-deal' exit on 29th March. I don't think anything in Article 50 prevents it.
It's also the case that far too much comment has confused the WA with the final settlement; which is to confuse journey and destination
You raise a good point. I had not thought that, in the event we end up in No Deal land and the impact is severe, the UK may be tempted to quickly pass the Deal and the EU may be happy to apply it in quick order.
Even a short period of No Deal chaos will leave a big footprint though (what would be the tariff status of goods which moved between March 29th and the Deal eventually being agreed?)
I think that No Deal would most likely result a couple of weeks later with the WA.
Yes, I am inclined to agree now that @algarkirk has pointed it out to me.
Indeed, I wonder if that is May's Plan B
Hmm .... see my post just now. That may be a misunderstanding of the legal position. And, possibly, also the political position.
This is all very plausible and may be true but in fact we are going to have to wait quite a time to discover whether something very like TMs deal will in the end prevail as the worst of ideas except for all the others. For what it is worth I think it will. It is not even impossible that it would prevail after a 'no-deal' exit on 29th March. I don't think anything in Article 50 prevents it.
It's also the case that far too much comment has confused the WA with the final settlement; which is to confuse journey and destination
You raise a good point. I had not thought that, in the event we end up in No Deal land and the impact is severe, the UK may be tempted to quickly pass the Deal and the EU may be happy to apply it in quick order.
Even a short period of No Deal chaos will leave a big footprint though (what would be the tariff status of goods which moved between March 29th and the Deal eventually being agreed?)
I think that No Deal would most likely result a couple of weeks later with the WA.
I think if confronted by flames in the road people will slam the accelerator, thinking they'll come out ok on the other side. And it will work in the short term because it'll be a more positive message.
Until the tyres melt, and the occupants asphyxiate
Isn't the legal position that if the WA is not agreed and enacted by 29 March (and assuming no extension of Article 50) then at that point Britain becomes a third country.
Legally, I'm not at all sure that the EU could sign a Withdrawal Agreement with a third country. It would not make any sense. All the rights and obligations of being a Member State would have gone and there would have been no mechanism to preserve them - as the WA does.
So you'd be looking to reinstate them in some way i.e. a sort of rejoining in order then to leave via a transition agreement.
Politically, who knows?
I think at that point it moves straight to the FTA negotiations. But you can bet they will he a lot tougher if we have just walked away with No Deal.
One clever thing May has done is the £65 thing. That's the headline on the BBC main page, rather than her redundant plan which has already been attempted.
It was a transparent attempt to distract. It worked, but why did she need it?
I dunno, TMay looks hopelessly incompetent right now but you have to wait to see the outcome.
Imagine parliament "forces" a Remain vs Deal referendum on her. A few months from now we could easily have: * Brexit cancelled * Con leading in polls * TMay still PM * Her enemies marginalized, feuding and discredited
...and people will be asking if she planned the whole thing.
A remainer drug ridden fantasy I'd suggest
Which part don't you buy?
I can imagine Brexit cancelled but the idea there'd still be a functioning Tory party afterwards is shall we say politely a tad unlikely.
If Brexit gets cancelled, then I think Farage's new party will be riding high in the polls.
If Brexit were cancelled after a referendum, a Farage party would have some tricky positioning to do.
Why? 38% or so favour a No Deal Brexit. That 's a large constituency.
28% according to ICM. It’s vaguely reassuring that less than a third of my countrymen and women are imbeciles.
Worth noting again in the spirit of fairness that 26% of that 28% 'No Dealers' are actually imbecilic Remainers who think No Deal means stay in.
Natalie Wood’s death at the tender age of 43 is one of the great Tinsel Town mysteries. I won’t mention names as Mike’s lawyers might get twitchy. Suffice to say it is easily googlable and the case remains open. She was a wonderful actress and memorable particularly for her role in The Great Race, one of the best race capers of all time.
I dunno, TMay looks hopelessly incompetent right now but you have to wait to see the outcome.
Imagine parliament "forces" a Remain vs Deal referendum on her. A few months from now we could easily have: * Brexit cancelled * Con leading in polls * TMay still PM * Her enemies marginalized, feuding and discredited
...and people will be asking if she planned the whole thing.
A remainer drug ridden fantasy I'd suggest
Which part don't you buy?
I can imagine Brexit cancelled but the idea there'd still be a functioning Tory party afterwards is shall we say politely a tad unlikely.
If Brexit gets cancelled, then I think Farage's new party will be riding high in the polls.
If Brexit were cancelled after a referendum, a Farage party would have some tricky positioning to do.
Why?
Remain refused to accept the result of the first referendum, so why should we accept the result of the second?
It's not about acceptance but about electoral appeal. Farage rode the wave before the referendum because mainstream politicians progressively legitimised fringe Eurosceptic positions.
That dynamic will now go into reverse. Saying "let's leave the EU" will go down like a lead balloon with people who are sick of hearing about Brexit and never want to hear the word again.
Still living in that fantasy world William. The problems of the last few months have made hatred of the EU even greater amongst Leavers. There is no turning that back. No matter what happens now a huge part of the British public will continue to hate both the EU and it's supporters.
I don't think it is a sensible attitude but it is becoming ever more prevalent and I suspect it accounts for that growth in No Deal support.
It doesn't matter how much you hate the EU. You still only get one vote.
I wasn't referring to me. I already said it wasn't a sensible attitude.
Your mistake is forgetting that everyone only gets one vote... but those votes do tend to add up when people are angry.
This is all very plausible and may be true but in fact we are going to have to wait quite a time to discover whether something very like TMs deal will in the end prevail as the worst of ideas except for all the others. For what it is worth I think it will. It is not even impossible that it would prevail after a 'no-deal' exit on 29th March. I don't think anything in Article 50 prevents it.
It's also the case that far too much comment has confused the WA with the final settlement; which is to confuse journey and destination
You raise a good point. I had not thought that, in the event we end up in No Deal land and the impact is severe, the UK may be tempted to quickly pass the Deal and the EU may be happy to apply it in quick order.
Even a short period of No Deal chaos will leave a big footprint though (what would be the tariff status of goods which moved between March 29th and the Deal eventually being agreed?)
Has the EU said that the current WA would be available after 29 March?
They might be tempted - in the circumstances you describe - to impose a few more conditions, if Britain were desperate for a transition deal.
Unfair? Possibly. But the temptation to teach Britain a lesson will be there, from some EU countries, anyway. For instance, some affected countries might want to seek specific compensation for the damage suffered in the interim.
But sometimes it's the first offer which is the best, not the last, especially not if you're desperate or more desperate than your counterpart, and they're in a stronger position than you.
All of that is true. But if the disruption is severe I think any hurdles in the way of the WA would all be swept away in a week or so.
Of course, if the ERG headbangers are right and the disruption is minimal then we would work it out as we go along.
But I think there are far, far too many things that will not work very well for the cumulative effect to be anything other than chaos.
And No Dealers should be well aware that all those voters who currently support No Deal will evaporate away faster than a puddle in the desert if it all goes pear-shaped - they will quickly claim to have been 'totally misled by politicians' or similar.
Politically you may be right. I certainly agree with your last paragraph.
I don't know if my legal interpretation is right (see my other posts). But if it is, it may be more difficult than you suggest.
Whatever happens, it will be a bit of a mess. Just as well we have such exceptional leaders to look after us, eh. .....
The Tories have not really had a leader worthy of the name since Thatcher - none of her successors has tried to take the party out of its comfort zone or challenged the unrealistic preconceptions of its membership. May is the latest in a long line of mediocrities who have placed the prejudices of the ageing, shrinking band of activists ahead of everything else, including those of the country. History will not look kindly on any of them, May least of all.
How does Cameron fit in that? For all his many faults, he did modernise the party, before the reactionaries took it back.
Which shows he never modernised it. He ended up doing what Blair did - he pushed his party to its extreme.
Rather, it shows that "modernisation" is a dead end. The traditionalists push back.
This is all very plausible and may be true but in fact we are going to have to wait quite a time to discover whether something very like TMs deal will in the end prevail as the worst of ideas except for all the others. For what it is worth I think it will. It is not even impossible that it would prevail after a 'no-deal' exit on 29th March. I don't think anything in Article 50 prevents it.
It's also the case that far too much comment has confused the WA with the final settlement; which is to confuse journey and destination
You raise a good point. I had not thought that, in the event we end up in No Deal land and the impact is severe, the UK may be tempted to quickly pass the Deal and the EU may be happy to apply it in quick order.
Even a short period of No Deal chaos will leave a big footprint though (what would be the tariff status of goods which moved between March 29th and the Deal eventually being agreed?)
I think that No Deal would most likely result a couple of weeks later with the WA.
Yes, I am inclined to agree now that @algarkirk has pointed it out to me.
Indeed, I wonder if that is May's Plan B
Hmm .... see my post just now. That may be a misunderstanding of the legal position. And, possibly, also the political position.
Tbh I still think it's unlikely we'll get to the point of No Deal. Next week could be pivotal.
I dunno, TMay looks hopelessly incompetent right now but you have to wait to see the outcome.
Imagine parliament "forces" a Remain vs Deal referendum on her. A few months from now we could easily have: * Brexit cancelled * Con leading in polls * TMay still PM * Her enemies marginalized, feuding and discredited
...and people will be asking if she planned the whole thing.
A remainer drug ridden fantasy I'd suggest
Which part don't you buy?
I can imagine Brexit cancelled but the idea there'd still be a functioning Tory party afterwards is shall we say politely a tad unlikely.
If Brexit gets cancelled, then I think Farage's new party will be riding high in the polls.
I'd vote for it.
And me I think - certainly not the tories if they destroy brexit
This is all very plausible and may be true but in fact we are going to have to wait quite a time to discover whether something very like TMs deal will in the end prevail as the worst of ideas except for all the others. For what it is worth I think it will. It is not even impossible that it would prevail after a 'no-deal' exit on 29th March. I don't think anything in Article 50 prevents it.
It's also the case that far too much comment has confused the WA with the final settlement; which is to confuse journey and destination
You raise a good point. I had not thought that, in the event we end up in No Deal land and the impact is severe, the UK may be tempted to quickly pass the Deal and the EU may be happy to apply it in quick order.
Even a short period of No Deal chaos will leave a big footprint though (what would be the tariff status of goods which moved between March 29th and the Deal eventually being agreed?)
I think that No Deal would most likely result a couple of weeks later with the WA.
I think if confronted by flames in the road people will slam the accelerator, thinking they'll come out ok on the other side. And it will work in the short term because it'll be a more positive message.
Until the tyres melt, and the occupants asphyxiate
Isn't the legal position that if the WA is not agreed and enacted by 29 March (and assuming no extension of Article 50) then at that point Britain becomes a third country.
Legally, I'm not at all sure that the EU could sign a Withdrawal Agreement with a third country. It would not make any sense. All the rights and obligations of being a Member State would have gone and there would have been no mechanism to preserve them - as the WA does.
It seems like this is where the emergency extension idea would need to come in, if there was clarity the deal would definitely be approved now but it was so late all the other preparatory work was not ready so could they give us more time. But with no realistic prospect of that it's not in their interests to extend.
One clever thing May has done is the £65 thing. That's the headline on the BBC main page, rather than her redundant plan which has already been attempted.
It was a transparent attempt to distract. It worked, but why did she need it?
Because her plan is no plan at all, obviously. The headline should be 'May's plan in tatters' or something.
Natalie Wood’s death at the tender age of 43 is one of the great Tinsel Town mysteries. I won’t mention names as Mike’s lawyers might get twitchy. Suffice to say it is easily googlable and the case remains open. She was a wonderful actress and memorable particularly for her role in The Great Race, one of the best race capers of all time.
That is our number one family film. We watch it at least a couple of times a year. Jack Lemmon and Peter Falk are just a genius comedy pairing. And the pie fight at the end is by far the best in cinema history.
Still struggling to see how we avoid a No Deal departure. I just don’t see hundreds of career politicians having the ability, the bravery, to put the country first. There’s just too much incentive to carry on not finding a solution.
I dunno, TMay looks hopelessly incompetent right now but you have to wait to see the outcome.
Imagine parliament "forces" a Remain vs Deal referendum on her. A few months from now we could easily have: * Brexit cancelled * Con leading in polls * TMay still PM * Her enemies marginalized, feuding and discredited
...and people will be asking if she planned the whole thing.
A remainer drug ridden fantasy I'd suggest
Which part don't you buy?
I can imagine Brexit cancelled but the idea there'd still be a functioning Tory party afterwards is shall we say politely a tad unlikely.
If Brexit gets cancelled, then I think Farage's new party will be riding high in the polls.
I'd vote for it.
And me I think - certainly not the tories if they destroy brexit
Couldn't agree more. May has provided a complete vacuum where leadership was required. Anyone, even Andrea Leadsom, would have been better than this. They could hardly have been worse!
I tried speculating last night if there are any MPs who would be worse in this particular situation. Not that she does not have some qualities better than many, but thinking about how she is so clearly wrong for this situation as she is unwilling to act and is just pursuing options she knows will not work just to delay.
All I came up with were Chris Williamson and Chris Chope as being worse, but there have to be a full handful at least. Suggestions?
Andrew Bridgen, Iain Duncan Smith, Peter Bone, Mark Francois, Steve Baker, and the woman who I helped to elect, Andrea Jenkyns, though I think David Herdson deserves the lion's share of the credit for that.
You and David preferred Andrea Jenkyns to Ed Balls? You have never shown signs of being stark raving bonkers before.
I'd be truly mortified if that were me TSE.
Until someone is elected you cannot always tell their quality. It's why we trust to the brand.
Anyone even vaguely interested in politics ought to have been able to tell that Ed Balls is a class act.
I am with thephone.coop. It is a reseller using talktalk wholesale for the backhaul and local loop unbundling (LLU). The prices are good and quality is reliable.
If you want good WiFi then either buy a better router than the one provided by your ISP or use powerline extenders if you have a large house.
The Tories have not really had a leader worthy of the name since Thatcher - none of her successors has tried to take the party out of its comfort zone or challenged the unrealistic preconceptions of its membership. May is the latest in a long line of mediocrities who have placed the prejudices of the ageing, shrinking band of activists ahead of everything else, including those of the country. History will not look kindly on any of them, May least of all.
How does Cameron fit in that? For all his many faults, he did modernise the party, before the reactionaries took it back.
Which shows he never modernised it. He ended up doing what Blair did - he pushed his party to its extreme.
Rather, it shows that "modernisation" is a dead end. The traditionalists push back.
In what way did Cameron push the Tories to the extreme?
The traditionalists are not, IMO, traditionalists at all. They're nostalgic. The two are different.
Any good worthwhile tradition does reinvent itself and modernises, if subtly and slowly. Sensible traditionalists realise that times change and that they - and generations after them - have to change too. If you want to look at the famous father of conservatism, Burke, he wrote that we owe a duty not just to the current generation and to those who have died but also to those who have yet to be born. It seems to me that a lot of the traditionalists have forgotten that important bit of their Burkean Conservative tradition.
Politically you may be right. I certainly agree with your last paragraph.
I don't know if my legal interpretation is right (see my other posts). But if it is, it may be more difficult than you suggest.
Whatever happens, it will be a bit of a mess. Just as well we have such exceptional leaders to look after us, eh. .....
Even if we had decent leaders it will be a mess simply because the EU isn't designed to do things in a great hurry with third parties and we would be a third party.
Natalie Wood’s death at the tender age of 43 is one of the great Tinsel Town mysteries. I won’t mention names as Mike’s lawyers might get twitchy. Suffice to say it is easily googlable and the case remains open. She was a wonderful actress and memorable particularly for her role in The Great Race, one of the best race capers of all time.
Yes, could not agree more. George W Bush and Sly Stallone is a good one. And why did I not know Lincoln and Darwin? Two absolute giants.
I am with thephone.coop. It is a reseller using talktalk wholesale for the backhaul and local loop unbundling (LLU). The prices are good and quality is reliable.
If you want good WiFi then either buy a better router than the one provided by your ISP or use powerline extenders if you have a large house.
Still struggling to see how we avoid a No Deal departure. I just don’t see hundreds of career politicians having the ability, the bravery, to put the country first. There’s just too much incentive to carry on not finding a solution.
They only seem to care about who will be blamed for it, not avoiding it, or expecting the other side to crack and come to their side. We need some really senior people to break ranks. A Tory to confirm for definite they will vote with Labour on a vote of no confidence if it is no deal (I know some have said they will quit, but have they gone that far?), a senior Labour MP saying the deal is the only way to get out of this mess.
This is all very plausible and may be true but in fact we are going to have to wait quite a time to discover whether something very like TMs deal will in the end prevail as the worst of ideas except for all the others. For what it is worth I think it will. It is not even impossible that it would prevail after a 'no-deal' exit on 29th March. I don't think anything in Article 50 prevents it.
It's also the case that far too much comment has confused the WA with the final settlement; which is to confuse journey and destination
You raise a good point. I had not thought that, in the event we end up in No Deal land and the impact is severe, the UK may be tempted to quickly pass the Deal and the EU may be happy to apply it in quick order.
Even a short period of No Deal chaos will leave a big footprint though (what would be the tariff status of goods which moved between March 29th and the Deal eventually being agreed?)
I think that No Deal would most likely result a couple of weeks later with the WA.
Yes, I am inclined to agree now that @algarkirk has pointed it out to me.
Indeed, I wonder if that is May's Plan B
Hmm .... see my post just now. That may be a misunderstanding of the legal position. And, possibly, also the political position.
Tbh I still think it's unlikely we'll get to the point of No Deal. Next week could be pivotal.
This is all very plausible and may be true but in fact we are going to have to wait quite a time to discover whether something very like TMs deal will in the end prevail as the worst of ideas except for all the others. For what it is worth I think it will. It is not even impossible that it would prevail after a 'no-deal' exit on 29th March. I don't think anything in Article 50 prevents it.
It's also the case that far too much comment has confused the WA with the final settlement; which is to confuse journey and destination
You raise a good point. I had not thought that, in the event we end up in No Deal land and the impact is severe, the UK may be tempted to quickly pass the Deal and the EU may be happy to apply it in quick order.
Even a short period of No Deal chaos will leave a big footprint though (what would be the tariff status of goods which moved between March 29th and the Deal eventually being agreed?)
I think that No Deal would most likely result a couple of weeks later with the WA.
Yes, I am inclined to agree now that @algarkirk has pointed it out to me.
Indeed, I wonder if that is May's Plan B
Hmm .... see my post just now. That may be a misunderstanding of the legal position. And, possibly, also the political position.
Tbh I still think it's unlikely we'll get to the point of No Deal. Next week could be pivotal.
Couldn't agree more. May has provided a complete vacuum where leadership was required. Anyone, even Andrea Leadsom, would have been better than this. They could hardly have been worse!
I tried speculating last night if there are any MPs who would be worse in this particular situation. Not that she does not have some qualities better than many, but thinking about how she is so clearly wrong for this situation as she is unwilling to act and is just pursuing options she knows will not work just to delay.
All I came up with were Chris Williamson and Chris Chope as being worse, but there have to be a full handful at least. Suggestions?
Andrew Bridgen, Iain Duncan Smith, Peter Bone, Mark Francois, Steve Baker, and the woman who I helped to elect, Andrea Jenkyns, though I think David Herdson deserves the lion's share of the credit for that.
You and David preferred Andrea Jenkyns to Ed Balls? You have never shown signs of being stark raving bonkers before.
I'd be truly mortified if that were me TSE.
Until someone is elected you cannot always tell their quality. It's why we trust to the brand.
Anyone even vaguely interested in politics ought to have been able to tell that Ed Balls is a class act.
Oh how we forget. Ed Balls was part of the coterie of Death Eaters around Gordon Brown, happy to be part of really, really dark arts.
Couldn't agree more. May has provided a complete vacuum where leadership was required. Anyone, even Andrea Leadsom, would have been better than this. They could hardly have been worse!
I tried speculating last night if there are any MPs who would be worse in this particular situation. Not that she does not have some qualities better than many, but thinking about how she is so clearly wrong for this situation as she is unwilling to act and is just pursuing options she knows will not work just to delay.
All I came up with were Chris Williamson and Chris Chope as being worse, but there have to be a full handful at least. Suggestions?
Andrew Bridgen, Iain Duncan Smith, Peter Bone, Mark Francois, Steve Baker, and the woman who I helped to elect, Andrea Jenkyns, though I think David Herdson deserves the lion's share of the credit for that.
You and David preferred Andrea Jenkyns to Ed Balls? You have never shown signs of being stark raving bonkers before.
I'd be truly mortified if that were me TSE.
Until someone is elected you cannot always tell their quality. It's why we trust to the brand.
Anyone even vaguely interested in politics ought to have been able to tell that Ed Balls is a class act.
People like party labels. They might know he was a class act, but not that his opponent was so bad that he was better than the person wearing the right rosette. We don't have much time to get to know candidates, and most only spout party slogans, it is hard to tell.
Natalie Wood’s death at the tender age of 43 is one of the great Tinsel Town mysteries. I won’t mention names as Mike’s lawyers might get twitchy. Suffice to say it is easily googlable and the case remains open. She was a wonderful actress and memorable particularly for her role in The Great Race, one of the best race capers of all time.
Yes, could not agree more. George W Bush and Sly Stallone is a good one. And why did I not know Lincoln and Darwin? Two absolute giants.
The story behind her sad demise has remained largely untold outside the treble-sourced confines of Wikipedia. When you read about the circumstances, and who was on the boat, you can see why. The story would have rejected by Hollywood on the grounds of it being too far fetched.
By the middle of March the House of Commons will, on current form, still have three poisoned chalices to choose from: TM's WA, revoke or no deal. (Defer makes no difference as Substantial re-negotiation isn't going to happen. Ref2 makes no difference because both results are equally divisive). As 29th March approaches there is no doubt which is the least unattractive of the chalices. Something close to the WA will pass.
These people make no sense - the Grievers were there the whole time, and they knew that. Have they been asleep this whole time and were just ranting about how awful the deal was inadvertently?
Still struggling to see how we avoid a No Deal departure. I just don’t see hundreds of career politicians having the ability, the bravery, to put the country first. There’s just too much incentive to carry on not finding a solution.
They only seem to care about who will be blamed for it, not avoiding it, or expecting the other side to crack and come to their side. We need some really senior people to break ranks. A Tory to confirm for definite they will vote with Labour on a vote of no confidence if it is no deal (I know some have said they will quit, but have they gone that far?), a senior Labour MP saying the deal is the only way to get out of this mess.
There's not much hope.
Neither leadership will do anything to prevent No Deal. So it requires a Hammond or a Starmer to step up. Like you, I just cannot see it happening. I’m just thankful I’ll be able to look after my family when we crash out. Sadly, there are many millions out there who are not in that fortunate position. It’s going to get very nasty.
Natalie Wood’s death at the tender age of 43 is one of the great Tinsel Town mysteries. I won’t mention names as Mike’s lawyers might get twitchy. Suffice to say it is easily googlable and the case remains open. She was a wonderful actress and memorable particularly for her role in The Great Race, one of the best race capers of all time.
That is our number one family film. We watch it at least a couple of times a year. Jack Lemmon and Peter Falk are just a genius comedy pairing. And the pie fight at the end is by far the best in cinema history.
We never tire of that film in our family. The Prisoner of Zenda subplot is inspired. And I love the scene in Alaska with the melting ice. “When the water reaches my bottom lip, I’m sure as hell gonna tell somebody.”
Couldn't agree more. May has provided a complete vacuum where leadership was required. Anyone, even Andrea Leadsom, would have been better than this. They could hardly have been worse!
I tried speculating last night if there are any MPs who would be worse in this particular situation. Not that she does not have some qualities better than many, but thinking about how she is so clearly wrong for this situation as she is unwilling to act and is just pursuing options she knows will not work just to delay.
All I came up with were Chris Williamson and Chris Chope as being worse, but there have to be a full handful at least. Suggestions?
Andrew Bridgen, Iain Duncan Smith, Peter Bone, Mark Francois, Steve Baker, and the woman who I helped to elect, Andrea Jenkyns, though I think David Herdson deserves the lion's share of the credit for that.
You and David preferred Andrea Jenkyns to Ed Balls? You have never shown signs of being stark raving bonkers before.
I'd be truly mortified if that were me TSE.
Until someone is elected you cannot always tell their quality. It's why we trust to the brand.
Anyone even vaguely interested in politics ought to have been able to tell that Ed Balls is a class act.
Oh how we forget. Ed Balls was part of the coterie of Death Eaters around Gordon Brown, happy to be part of really, really dark arts.
Balls is and was awesome.
A towering intellectual giant compared to the collection of dweebs, dullards, clowns, comedians and quarterwits that pollute the front benches of today.
Comments
Remain refused to accept the result of the first referendum, so why should we accept the result of the second?
Eventually life imitates art.
'May you live in interesting times' indeed.
It's also the case that far too much comment has confused the WA with the final settlement; which is to confuse journey and destination
https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/426323-russian-oligarch-allies-retain-key-ownership-in-company-after
That dynamic will now go into reverse. Saying "let's leave the EU" will go down like a lead balloon with people who are sick of hearing about Brexit and never want to hear the word again.
Well yes if it's turns out Farage is a criminal then he'll be in jail and nobody will be voting for him obviously...
Hypocrite much?
It will be a cohort of labour, snp, lib dems, plaid and a small number of conservatives who take it down
Even a short period of No Deal chaos will leave a big footprint though (what would be the tariff status of goods which moved between March 29th and the Deal eventually being agreed?)
Gav “The Tarantula” Williamson?
https://www.mirror.co.uk/tv/tv-news/birthday-twins-revealed-find-out-8203476
https://forums.digitalspy.com/discussion/2322312/26-of-poll-thinks-no-deal-means-stay-in-the-eu
They might be tempted - in the circumstances you describe - to impose a few more conditions, if Britain were desperate for a transition deal.
Unfair? Possibly. But the temptation to teach Britain a lesson will be there, from some EU countries, anyway. For instance, some affected countries might want to seek specific compensation for the damage suffered in the interim.
But sometimes it's the first offer which is the best, not the last, especially not if you're desperate or more desperate than your counterpart, and they're in a stronger position than you.
There have been two further security alerts in Derry this Monday evening, sparked by an abandoned lorry near the Glen and the reported attempted hijacking of a bus in Galliagh, the PSNI have confirmed.
I don't think it is a sensible attitude but it is becoming ever more prevalent and I suspect it accounts for that growth in No Deal support.
Of course, if the ERG headbangers are right and the disruption is minimal then we would work it out as we go along.
But I think there are far, far too many things that will not work very well for the cumulative effect to be anything other than chaos.
And No Dealers should be well aware that all those voters who currently support No Deal will evaporate away faster than a puddle in the desert if it all goes pear-shaped - they will quickly claim to have been 'totally misled by politicians' or similar.
Legally, I'm not at all sure that the EU could sign a Withdrawal Agreement with a third country. It would not make any sense. All the rights and obligations of being a Member State would have gone and there would have been no mechanism to preserve them - as the WA does.
So you'd be looking to reinstate them in some way i.e. a sort of rejoining in order then to leave via a transition agreement.
Politically, who knows?
Your mistake is forgetting that everyone only gets one vote... but those votes do tend to add up when people are angry.
I don't know if my legal interpretation is right (see my other posts). But if it is, it may be more difficult than you suggest.
Whatever happens, it will be a bit of a mess. Just as well we have such exceptional leaders to look after us, eh. .....
I am with thephone.coop. It is a reseller using talktalk wholesale for the backhaul and local loop unbundling (LLU). The prices are good and quality is reliable.
If you want good WiFi then either buy a better router than the one provided by your ISP or use powerline extenders if you have a large house.
The traditionalists are not, IMO, traditionalists at all. They're nostalgic. The two are different.
Any good worthwhile tradition does reinvent itself and modernises, if subtly and slowly. Sensible traditionalists realise that times change and that they - and generations after them - have to change too. If you want to look at the famous father of conservatism, Burke, he wrote that we owe a duty not just to the current generation and to those who have died but also to those who have yet to be born. It seems to me that a lot of the traditionalists have forgotten that important bit of their Burkean Conservative tradition.
Given the leaders we have we are utterly screwed.
There's not much hope.
Anyway, thanks for the chat all. Goodnight.
By the middle of March the House of Commons will, on current form, still have three poisoned chalices to choose from: TM's WA, revoke or no deal. (Defer makes no difference as Substantial re-negotiation isn't going to happen. Ref2 makes no difference because both results are equally divisive). As 29th March approaches there is no doubt which is the least unattractive of the chalices. Something close to the WA will pass.
We never tire of that film in our family. The Prisoner of Zenda subplot is inspired. And I love the scene in Alaska with the melting ice. “When the water reaches my bottom lip, I’m sure as hell gonna tell somebody.”
This announcement has been one of a growing number from ERG since friday
It is in life support but dead, no
A towering intellectual giant compared to the collection of dweebs, dullards, clowns, comedians and quarterwits that pollute the front benches of today.