I strongly suspect this is a scare tactic - among many others. I think May's deal or similar will be back soon.
I'm sure they'll try that first. But lots of people seem to think an election is a good idea, and so long as the EU agrees it gives them months more to avoid the decision. We know both May and Corbyn love delay. It's a bad sign.
Not least because if we assume for the moment the Tories would fight under the deal banner and expect to win, labour have reason to say no even then. They'll be confident the Tories won't win and even if they do better the deal passes that way than labour votes for it.
And they still need dozens of labour votes. Even if mogg is wavering plenty of Tories won't.
I would be very surprised and somewhat disappointed if TM called a GE not least because neither main party has a position on it
I read yesterday that labour cannot bring another vonc as the wording is set in the procedure and you cannot bring back the vonc in the same session for that reason
Not sure how true that is
Irrelevant anyway, as Cable has indicated the LDs wouldn't support another without him shifting position on a second referendum.
In a position where one is likely to succeed then I couldn't see the LD's propping up the Tories, there is potentially too big an electoral price. Whilst the statis remains and VONC couldn't pass then they could hold that position.
Parris: "If Yvette Cooper (or indeed her husband Ed Balls) were opposition leader in a general election today, the Tories would be out on their ear tomorrow."
This is the stark reality that Labour activists need to wake up to. Jezza is an albatross.
Last time Labour elected a Leader there was a shortage of decent candidates. This time there's a surplus.
So the allegedly offensive posts in question belong to a Leaver?
Someone said he was a former Tory council candidate, and he's obviously well-informed on details of what's happening. He's said himself that he posts here mostly for fun and mischief. I don't really care - even if we agreed on everything else, I wouldn't want him posting about celebrating death and I agree with the ban.
That said, his acerbic, brief posts often have a good point - he's sort of like the lamented tim and the current SeanT in that way. So I'd like to see him welcomed back after a pause for thought.
Parris: "If Yvette Cooper (or indeed her husband Ed Balls) were opposition leader in a general election today, the Tories would be out on their ear tomorrow."
This is the stark reality that Labour activists need to wake up to. Jezza is an albatross.
The late 90's called....
The electorate has moved on, left wing voters want a left wing Labour party. You don't but you aren't usually a Labour voter. A Labour party appealing to you is not one that is electorally successful. The idea that Cooper would hugely improve on Labours current position when only Blair has actually done better than Corbyn and then only 2/3 times within decades is silly and based on what you want rather than the reality of the electorate.
So the allegedly offensive posts in question belong to a Leaver?
Someone said he was a former Tory council candidate, and he's obviously well-informed on details of what's happening. He's said himself that he posts here mostly for fun and mischief. I don't really care - even if we agreed on everything else, I wouldn't want him posting about celebrating death and I agree with the ban.
That said, his acerbic, brief posts often have a good point - he's sort of like the lamented tim and the current SeanT in that way. So I'd like to see him welcomed back after a pause for thought.
If you are not angry about the current Brexit situation... If you are not enraged by May about the abyss she has dragged the country into... If you are not steaming about red lines and the unconstructive absolutistist approach of politicians the ERG,Corbyn et al. If you are not upset with the how politics has been hijacked by a nasty minority online...
Then you should be banned. Because there is something seriously wrong with you.
or you could just stop being angry about everything and get a life
Nope, you’d have to stupid, cold or just plain weird not to be upset/angry about this a mess.
If you are angry about the risk of No Deal Brexit, then get angry that a Labour Party barely a cigarette paper thickness apart from May's Deal won't switch off the No Deal life suport for party-political advantage. Therei s so much cant coming from Labour.
If the distance is so slight, then why cannot May move?
Her problem is that she thinks compromise means the other party giving in.
Move to what? Something that might or might not be acceptable in Brussels. The point is, there is already a deal agreed with the EU that kills all this worry about No Deal Brexit stone dead. It's not ERG keeping No Deal alive - they don't have the numbers. The Labour Party does. It could end the uncertainty for the whole of the EU. Within the hour.
I strongly suspect this is a scare tactic - among many others. I think May's deal or similar will be back soon.
I think an election is the last thing a party as deeply divided as the Tories would want. Especially if it was going to be dominated by the very issue that divides them.
If Labour presented itself as the party that would solve the problem by following a moderate, responsible, soft-Brexit course while the Tories continued to fight mainly with one another, it could make Theresa May's last snap election look like the wisdom of Solomon by comparison.
Grabcocque’s real name (and his entertaining history as a Tory council candidate) is trivially Googlable. I believe he used to post under his real name years ago.
Blimey. It really is trivially Googlable!
Gosh! So it is! I remember his alter ego posting on here back in the days of The Last Boy Scout!
Yes, I see what you mean, especially the council candidate bit. I think I've actually met him though can't remember the context. The lingering impression was jovial eccentric.
I strongly suspect this is a scare tactic - among many others. I think May's deal or similar will be back soon.
I think an election is the last thing a party as deeply divided as the Tories would want. Especially if it was going to be dominated by the very issue that divides them.
If Labour presented itself as the party that would solve the problem by following a moderate, responsible, soft-Brexit course while the Tories continued to fight mainly with one another, it could make Theresa May's last snap election look like the wisdom of Solomon by comparison.
May calling an election and forcing the Tory candidates to sign up to her Brexit deal or face deselection sounds pretty close to a perfect scenario for Labour election wise. Even if we do have to come up with a Brexit policy that will inevitably upset some people.
If you are not angry about the current Brexit situation... If you are not enraged by May about the abyss she has dragged the country into... If you are not steaming about red lines and the unconstructive absolutistist approach of politicians the ERG,Corbyn et al. If you are not upset with the how politics has been hijacked by a nasty minority online...
Then you should be banned. Because there is something seriously wrong with you.
or you could just stop being angry about everything and get a life
Nope, you’d have to stupid, cold or just plain weird not to be upset/angry about this a mess.
If you are angry about the risk of No Deal Brexit, then get angry that a Labour Party barely a cigarette paper thickness apart from May's Deal won't switch off the No Deal life suport for party-political advantage. Therei s so much cant coming from Labour.
If the distance is so slight, then why cannot May move?
Her problem is that she thinks compromise means the other party giving in.
Grabcocque’s real name (and his entertaining history as a Tory council candidate) is trivially Googlable. I believe he used to post under his real name years ago.
Blimey. It really is trivially Googlable!
Gosh! So it is! I remember his alter ego posting on here back in the days of The Last Boy Scout!
Yes, I see what you mean, especially the council candidate bit. I think I've actually met him though can't remember the context. The lingering impression was jovial eccentric.
He was at one or more pb gatherings - maybe you met him there?
It is astounding after YouGov completely fucked the 2015 GE polling, with its botched demographic model and frequent polls driving and distorting the election narrative that professional political journalist would solely lean on their polling for deciding who was ahead in the polls.
Now if YouGov want to punt out another 650 constituency forecast again I'm willing to listen given its astoubdong predictive power last time out but screaming about how Labour are miles behind when no other pollster has them behind since November is weak sauce.
Trump’s relationship with the truth is hardly straightforward.
I have to disagree there. I think the premise is incorrect. Trump has no relationship with the truth.
*My computer changed that to 'toddlers'. While a phrase about toys and prams springs to mind over the shutdown, I changed it back as it was unfair to toddlers to suggest they bore any resemblance to Trump.
He lies every time he speaks.
Talking of liars, I see that Boris ' new girlfriend calls him "my bozzy bear."
It is widely acknowledged on this forum that with a decent Leader, Labour would be streets ahead of the Tories in the polls. One development however that would immediately put Labour well clear, even with the current unreconstructed Socialist in charge, would be for TM to call a GE.
The public does not want a GE. It wants a resolution to Brexit.
One factor in May's poor result at the last Election was the correct and widely perceived understanding that it had been called for her Party's benefit, not for the country's. Her attempted opportunism cost dear. It would cost more, I'm sure, if she tried it again.
the Leave campaign ended up running on Turkish immigration, which the UK already had a veto on. What was Juncker supposed to do, give him *two* vetoes?
On second thoughts that's where Cameron went wrong. A more spirited Prime Minister, once the Leave campaign started running on Turkish immigration in earnest, would have hurried over to Brussels and negotiated a second veto.
A curious feature of his support is that it inversely proportional to church attendance.
White evangelicals who go to church, don't vote for him much. White evangelicals who don't go to church vote for him a lot...
/
That is one of the
Do we infer from this that America is finally starting to become less religious? I have seen this reported in relation to the upcoming generation, so I guess it might simply be a matter of time, but I haven't seen anything about falling observance amongst the boomer and X generations?
Generalising horribly, Americans do seem to have a greater need to get a regular fix from some sort of motivational life coach than we more cynical Brits.
I was in touch with an old friend of mine in the US South recently; she went through a hard time in the from evangelism and applied it very successfully to hairdressing, in a way that I cannot ever see working over here.
I think the lack of employment and social protections in America, and much more rudimentary welfare system allows that to happen very easily in the USA. Even the seemingly secure are often only one serious illness, or lost paycheck away from falling through the bottom, and it is not easy to recover. Worth thinking about in the context of the US shutdown. America does not have anywhere as much social mobility as it thinks it does. Indeed less than UK and other European countries.
Which helps them how? They won't pass a deal or win any elections without them.
Sooner or later a way through (or from) Brexit will be found. Tory Brexiteers may not accept it. The whip can be withdrawn from rebels, who may not then stand as Conservatives again. Brexiteers should be shown the door, and ushered regretfully out — to become, perhaps, part of a rebirth of what was once Ukip. The Conservative Party may never govern again except in coalition. But British politics will be healthier and more honest if we show, and march under, our true colours.
There are MP's who the Conservatives would be well rid of, such as Andrew Bridgen, Mark Francois, Priti Patel, Bill Wiggin etc.
The problem is that many of the rebels from a pro-Brexit point of view, are not headbangers, such as Crispin Blunt, Michael Fallon, Stephen McPartland, Matthew Offord. If they were forced out, they'd probably take most members and councillors with them.
If you are not angry about the current Brexit situation... If you are not enraged by May about the abyss she has dragged the country into... If you are not steaming about red lines and the unconstructive absolutistist approach of politicians the ERG,Corbyn et al. If you are not upset with the how politics has been hijacked by a nasty minority online...
Then you should be banned. Because there is something seriously wrong with you.
or you could just stop being angry about everything and get a life
Nope, you’d have to stupid, cold or just plain weird not to be upset/angry about this a mess.
If you are angry about the risk of No Deal Brexit, then get angry that a Labour Party barely a cigarette paper thickness apart from May's Deal won't switch off the No Deal life suport for party-political advantage. Therei s so much cant coming from Labour.
Sure. I don’t agree with either May or Corbyn’s approach. They both stick in my craw. But really, the thing to get upset and angry about is our impotence in the whole thing. There are good, smart people who could solve this, but the current leaders block any kind of progress. That is much our fault as theirs.
One silver lining for me is that this has increased my respect and regard for sensible, rational, intelligent folk across the parties and here in particular.
I can't claim to be an authority on Grabcoque but having just flicked through the last thread I can understand where he's coming from. Like a lot of us he's a very angry Remainer who is swinging wildly. It's very difficult to understand why Leavers want to leave.
Slogans yes but no serious explanation of why those of us to whom it makes a difference should have our livelihoods and wellbeing wrecked on a whim or worse; I heard a phone- in the other day when someone was asked what they meant by 'losing sovereignty'? 'they're telling us we have to have straight bananas'. On being told by the interviewer that was found to be untrue the caller said 'Oh. Well they made us bring in decimalisation'.
The point is that Leaving is going to cost maybe 25% of us in very direct terms and another say 20% in the way we see ourselves. And for what?
That's why Remainers are angry and see Leavers as a malevolent wrecking ball. Old people who want to turn the clocks back. Right wing nationalists with ugly motives and the majority who just think that as it doesn't affect them so why not? There's a lot to be angry about
Big G voted Remain. He doesn’t want a crash out departure.
When someone tells you that close friends and colleagues have died recently going on and on about how pleased you are that old people are dying is pretty impolite and insensitive.
One of the nicest things about this forum is that when real life (in the form of illness, personal difficulties etc) intrude we step back and remember that posters are human beings and not just political opinions. Grabcocque is old enough to know better and forgot that basic rule.
the Leave campaign ended up running on Turkish immigration, which the UK already had a veto on. What was Juncker supposed to do, give him *two* vetoes?
On second thoughts that's where Cameron went wrong. A more spirited Prime Minister, once the Leave campaign started running on Turkish immigration in earnest, would have hurried over to Brussels and negotiated a second veto.
Not that it bothers me but kind of impossible given the things he had been saying about wanting Turkey in the EU.
If you are not angry about the current Brexit situation... If you are not enraged by May about the abyss she has dragged the country into... If you are not steaming about red lines and the unconstructive absolutistist approach of politicians the ERG,Corbyn et al. If you are not upset with the how politics has been hijacked by a nasty minority online...
Then you should be banned. Because there is something seriously wrong with you.
or you could just stop being angry about everything and get a life
Nope, you’d have to stupid, cold or just plain weird not to be upset/angry about this a mess.
If you are angry about the risk of No Deal Brexit, then get angry that a Labour Party barely a cigarette paper thickness apart from May's Deal won't switch off the No Deal life suport for party-political advantage. Therei s so much cant coming from Labour.
If the distance is so slight, then why cannot May move?
Her problem is that she thinks compromise means the other party giving in.
Move to what? Something that might or might not be acceptable in Brussels. The point is, there is already a deal agreed with the EU that kills all this worry about No Deal Brexit stone dead. It's not ERG keeping No Deal alive - they don't have the numbers. The Labour Party does. It could end the uncertainty for the whole of the EU. Within the hour.
Reminder: Most MPs certainly believe that quitting the EU is a terrible idea, that No Deal is even worse, and most would probably like to overturn the referendum result (regardless of the consequences this could have for public faith in the democratic process) as well.
The path to avoiding No Deal is open, and so is the path to Remain if they really want to take it. It's merely a matter of having the basic level of competence and coordination to walk down the sodding path.
Which is why there's still an excellent chance of Hard Brexit. It is debatable as to whether the most appropriate term is ineptocracy or kakistocracy, but whatever it is that's what the UK has become.
Messrs Ydoether, Foxy and Ian B2. Gentlemen (an assumption I know, that you are all male) I am indeed grateful for your useful comments, upthread and especially for that provided by The Doctor!
My son is faced with difficulty because he has a technical degree (electronic engineering), and grew up in a household dominated by people with 'technical' qualifications (Pharmacy and Infant School teaching) and although my parents had post school qualifications they were similar. I broke out of the mould, with a very different Post grad qualification, but after my elder son had left home. We do have another, younger, son, who has more generalist qualifications (Economics) but he is not considered by his brother to be a good source of advice on life skills.
He is therefore conditioned to think of 'education' as a means to an end. My grandson's other grandparents had no post school education, so I'm the family member approached for advice.
As I say, I'm extremely grateful for the time you spent, and for the information given.
It is widely acknowledged on this forum that with a decent Leader, Labour would be streets ahead of the Tories in the polls. One development however that would immediately put Labour well clear, even with the current unreconstructed Socialist in charge, would be for TM to call a GE.
I won't post on this again (after this) for now because I'm off.
What the widely acknowledged but completely unproven and completely without any kind of workings behind it statement about a 'decent leader' or variations on it ignores is
41% of Labour voters voted, as their primary reason for Corbyn or the policies. The decent leader is always assumed to be a centrist type. Labour aren't going to do better by taking away the primary reason for 41% of their votes.
If you talk about hypothetical leaders then many people around the country can pick a Labour figure and imagine their Brexit policy and other domestic policies and vote Labour. The actual Labour leader would have to only be one person with only one policy though and would take all the usual attack from the right wing papers. They would have to let down left wing voters to enact centrist policy instead or let down all these potential centrists by sticking with the policies.
I would be very impressed if this person managed to find themself in a better position than Corbyn is currently.
Edit: Also when Corbyn was doing far worse there was alternate leader polling which didn't show much difference (at least I'm sure I remember it) can't find it though.
A curious feature of his support is that it inversely proportional to church attendance.
White evangelicals who go to church, don't vote for him much. White evangelicals who don't go to church vote for him a lot...
/
That is one of the
Do we infer from this that America is finally starting to become less religious? I have seen this reported in relation to the upcoming generation, so I guess it might simply be a matter of time, but I haven't seen anything about falling observance amongst the boomer and X generations?
Generalising horribly, Americans do seem to have a greater need to get a regular fix from some sort of motivational life coach than we more cynical Brits.
I was in touch with an old friend of mine in the US South recently; she went through a hard time in the financial crash, losing .
I think the lack of employment and social protections in America, and much more rudimentary welfare system allows that to happen very easily in the USA. Even the seemingly secure are often only one serious illness, or lost paycheck away from falling through the bottom, and it is not easy to recover. Worth thinking about in the context of the US shutdown. America does not have anywhere as much social mobility as it thinks it does. Indeed less than UK and other European countries.
Great chart, thanks for sharing. Fascinating that other countries seem to underestimate social mobility while US overestimates.
More a part of their national mythmaking?
I think so. The new series of revisionist history on BBC4 is quite interesting on some other myths.
American History’s Biggest Fibs with Lucy Worsley, Series 1: 1. The American Revolution: www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m00023vy via @bbciplayer
The bit at the end on the brilliant hit musical Hamilton is thoughtful. I greatly enjoyed the show, but the subtext of social mobility, and hagiography of the founding fathers, makes for a far more right wing theme than the rapping, multi-ethnic cast would suggest.
I’m a bit annoyed that grabcoque was banned. His invective was often very funny, and pretty much all we had now that SeanT has found marital bliss.
This is part of the problem. eBay Martin Amis can say whatever the fuck he wants and others unwisely assume that's it's a universally applied standard.
Sean has been banned several times over the years though. For some reason he has mellowed greatly since shacking up with a 23-year-old Corbynista.
I have been banned multiple times, too many to remember.
I have been banned just the once, I think. A few days in the cooler helped me calm down. It does seem that @grabcoque does have a few anger issues, and not just online. His posts last night were certainly out of order.
Remember 'isam'? He really was the 'Cooler King' of PB. Sadly, he appears now to have ridden his motorbike into its final fence.
To mix film metaphors, he's probably in a cell with a big poster of Enoch on the wall, and burrowing away at the masonry behind it with a spoon every night.
I’m a bit annoyed that grabcoque was banned. His invective was often very funny, and pretty much all we had now that SeanT has found marital bliss.
This is part of the problem. eBay Martin Amis can say whatever the fuck he wants and others unwisely assume that's it's a universally applied standard.
Sean has been banned several times over the years though. For some reason he has mellowed greatly since shacking up with a 23-year-old Corbynista.
I have been banned multiple times, too many to remember.
I have been banned just the once, I think. A few days in the cooler helped me calm down. It does seem that @grabcoque does have a few anger issues, and not just online. His posts last night were certainly out of order.
Remember 'isam'? He really was the 'Cooler King' of PB. Sadly, he appears now to have ridden his motorbike into its final fence.
To mix film metaphors, he's probably in a cell with a big poster of Enoch on the wall, and burrowing away at the masonry behind it with a spoon every night.
He seems cheerful enough. I have had occasional correspondance with him.
It is widely acknowledged on this forum that with a decent Leader, Labour would be streets ahead of the Tories in the polls. One development however that would immediately put Labour well clear, even with the current unreconstructed Socialist in charge, would be for TM to call a GE.
I won't post on this again (after this) for now because I'm off.
What the widely acknowledged but completely unproven and completely without any kind of workings behind it statement about a 'decent leader' or variations on it ignores is
41% of Labour voters voted, as their primary reason for Corbyn or the policies. The decent leader is always assumed to be a centrist type. Labour aren't going to do better by taking away the primary reason for 41% of their votes.
If you talk about hypothetical leaders then many people around the country can pick a Labour figure and imagine their Brexit policy and other domestic policies and vote Labour. The actual Labour leader would have to only be one person with only one policy though and would take all the usual attack from the right wing papers. They would have to let down left wing voters to enact centrist policy instead or let down all these potential centrists by sticking with the policies.
I would be very impressed if this person managed to find themself in a better position than Corbyn is currently.
Edit: Also when Corbyn was doing far worse there was alternate leader polling which didn't show much difference (at least I'm sure I remember it) can't find it though.
All good points. I think the solution is a broader Labour Party with more centrists in prominent positions. The biggest problem the Labour Party has from my point of view as a potential voter is they seem very short of good spokesmen. Obviously this is less of a problem than the Tories have whose their policies are contrary to the interests of the country, but it is still a problem.
A GE is a very bad idea. What will it resolve? Nothing.
If the decision has to go to the people let’s have a second referendum: Leave on the terms negotiated or Remain. And get that Art 50 extension agreed pronto.
A GE is a very bad idea. What will it resolve? Nothing.
If the decision has to go to the people let’s have a second referendum: Leave on the terms negotiated or Remain. And get that Art 50 extension agreed pronto.
Stop all this faffing about.
Problem is, too many people benefit from faff and TM does not want a referendum.
Love the cartoon, and agreed, no value in either of these bets at all.
On topic I agree with the point being made in the header. A very well written and argued piece. As the election rushes closer and it looks less likely he can survive it, impeachment bets become less value.
And the cartoon perfectly captures his Mussolini pout. 🙃
A GE is a very bad idea. What will it resolve? Nothing.
If the decision has to go to the people let’s have a second referendum: Leave on the terms negotiated or Remain. And get that Art 50 extension agreed pronto.
Stop all this faffing about.
Problem is, too many people benefit from faff and TM does not want a referendum.
She knows(or fears at least) that remain will win. But it's also the only chance her deal has, she needs to give in already.
Parris: "If Yvette Cooper (or indeed her husband Ed Balls) were opposition leader in a general election today, the Tories would be out on their ear tomorrow."
This is the stark reality that Labour activists need to wake up to. Jezza is an albatross.
Maybe. Not sure. I stuck a few quid on YC for next PM @ 600/1 about a year ago. The scenario I had in mind was a May v Corbyn re-run in an early GE, bad loss for Labour, they swing back to the soft left, ditch JC for a new leader, has to be a woman, so YC gets it, she then wins the following GE vs May. Unlikely chain of events but, you know, 600/1.
But there seems to be a new - and possibly imminent - way for the bet to pay off. The Grand Unity Coalition to stop Brexit will need a leader and that person could become PM. Yvette is respected and non-divisive and, I think, a strong candidate.
Which is why I was excited to see her strutting around Westminster attending high level 'compromise' talks with Theresa May. What worried me, however, was the constant presence at her side of Hilary Benn, and (even worse) how he seemed to be doing all the talking while Yvette just stood there quietly nodding. Was this simply a case of a female socially programmed to defer to a tall man, or does it mean that Benn is the leader of the insurrection and she is his number two? I hope it's the former.
A GE is a very bad idea. What will it resolve? Nothing.
If the decision has to go to the people let’s have a second referendum: Leave on the terms negotiated or Remain. And get that Art 50 extension agreed pronto.
Stop all this faffing about.
A GE might help to resolve things IF, and only if, one of the parties likely to form the Government campaigned on a definite IN or indeed 'OUT (with no deal) platform.
All good points. I think the solution is a broader Labour Party with more centrists in prominent positions. The biggest problem the Labour Party has from my point of view as a potential voter is they seem very short of good spokesmen. Obviously this is less of a problem than the Tories have whose their policies are contrary to the interests of the country, but it is still a problem.
Worth noting that in addition to Matthew Parris in the Times calling on the Tories to expel the ERG, Phil Collins in the same paper urges Labour MPs to abandon Corbyn and form their own Parliamentary grouping.
A GE is a very bad idea. What will it resolve? Nothing.
If the decision has to go to the people let’s have a second referendum: Leave on the terms negotiated or Remain. And get that Art 50 extension agreed pronto.
Stop all this faffing about.
A GE gives the TM the best opportunity from the current impasse to deliver Brexit, It will be the tories vs those trying to block Brexit, and Corbyn will do worse than 2017, the voters have learnt that they cant risk another protest, and the tories wont make the same strategic mistakes they made in 2017. TM will get her majority and hopefully will play hard ball with EU over backstop from a stronger position in parliament. Bercow will be resigned to history, and Corbyn will be finished too, whats not to like about it!
A GE is a very bad idea. What will it resolve? Nothing.
If the decision has to go to the people let’s have a second referendum: Leave on the terms negotiated or Remain. And get that Art 50 extension agreed pronto.
Stop all this faffing about.
But do you really think another referendum would go any differently to last time?
In any case, given May's deal is dead, I would've thought if there was to be one then the choices would be Remain v No Deal -- even some of the "People's Vote" people like Chuka Umunna have admitted that.
A GE is a very bad idea. What will it resolve? Nothing.
If the decision has to go to the people let’s have a second referendum: Leave on the terms negotiated or Remain. And get that Art 50 extension agreed pronto.
Stop all this faffing about.
Problem is, too many people benefit from faff and TM does not want a referendum.
Far more people are being prejudiced asa result of faff. TM’s wishes should not be paramount. This is not about her but about what is best for the country. The reason I now dislike Mrs May is that she is making this all about her and her deal. It’s all very “l’etat c’est moi”.
Enough with this Charles I-style authoritarianism. If she’s blocking possible routes to a resolution then she needs to get out of the way - or be pushed - if necessary.
A GE is a very bad idea. What will it resolve? Nothing.
If the decision has to go to the people let’s have a second referendum: Leave on the terms negotiated or Remain. And get that Art 50 extension agreed pronto.
Stop all this faffing about.
Problem is, too many people benefit from faff and TM does not want a referendum.
She knows(or fears at least) that remain will win. But it's also the only chance her deal has, she needs to give in already.
From Mays POV a GE has huge advantages.
It’s quicker She has control of the manifesto and if necessary candidate selection. Given her party has confidence in her she has the power to force her deal into the manifesto. Hardcore Enemies in her own party will have to accept or stand against her and almost certainly lose. Corbyn has fucked it up a bit and has no clear policy. Remain offered only by the LibDems will lose. It is a way of reviving her political career and dealing with 2017.
It will be a General Election rather than a referendum.
It is widely acknowledged on this forum that with a decent Leader, Labour would be streets ahead of the Tories in the polls. One development however that would immediately put Labour well clear, even with the current unreconstructed Socialist in charge, would be for TM to call a GE.
I won't post on this again (after this) for now because I'm off.
What the widely acknowledged but completely unproven and completely without any kind of workings behind it statement about a 'decent leader' or variations on it ignores is
41% of Labour voters voted, as their primary reason for Corbyn or the policies. The decent leader is always assumed to be a centrist type. Labour aren't going to do better by taking away the primary reason for 41% of their votes.
If you talk about hypothetical leaders then many people around the country can pick a Labour figure and imagine their Brexit policy and other domestic policies and vote Labour. The actual Labour leader would have to only be one person with only one policy though and would take all the usual attack from the right wing papers. They would have to let down left wing voters to enact centrist policy instead or let down all these potential centrists by sticking with the policies.
I would be very impressed if this person managed to find themself in a better position than Corbyn is currently.
Edit: Also when Corbyn was doing far worse there was alternate leader polling which didn't show much difference (at least I'm sure I remember it) can't find it though.
All good points. I think the solution is a broader Labour Party with more centrists in prominent positions. The biggest problem the Labour Party has from my point of view as a potential voter is they seem very short of good spokesmen. Obviously this is less of a problem than the Tories have whose their policies are contrary to the interests of the country, but it is still a problem.
TBH I would be more than happy to have a few people like say Cooper. As long as they were happy to work towards a Corbyn government at the next election and could compromise but not just a mouthpiece they should have their input respected.
The problem is the way the situation has played out (centrists largely left cabinet and everything else that went on) and Corbyn is quite loyal to those who stepped up, some don't want to serve or wouldn't really be loyally serving. It obviously couldn't go back to how it was before.
A GE is a very bad idea. What will it resolve? Nothing.
If the decision has to go to the people let’s have a second referendum: Leave on the terms negotiated or Remain. And get that Art 50 extension agreed pronto.
Stop all this faffing about.
A GE gives the TM the best opportunity from the current impasse to deliver Brexit, It will be the tories vs those trying to block Brexit, and Corbyn will do worse than 2017, the voters have learnt that they cant risk another protest, and the tories wont make the same strategic mistakes they made in 2017. TM will get her majority and hopefully will play hard ball with EU over backstop from a stronger position in parliament. Bercow will be resigned to history, and Corbyn will be finished too, whats not to like about it!
A GE is the traditional way to solve an impasse under our system.
Doubt her party would let her, even is she came to this conclusion.
A GE is a very bad idea. What will it resolve? Nothing.
If the decision has to go to the people let’s have a second referendum: Leave on the terms negotiated or Remain. And get that Art 50 extension agreed pronto.
Stop all this faffing about.
A GE gives the TM the best opportunity from the current impasse to deliver Brexit, It will be the tories vs those trying to block Brexit, and Corbyn will do worse than 2017, the voters have learnt that they cant risk another protest, and the tories wont make the same strategic mistakes they made in 2017. TM will get her majority and hopefully will play hard ball with EU over backstop from a stronger position in parliament. Bercow will be resigned to history, and Corbyn will be finished too, whats not to like about it!
The Tories cannot agree on a Brexit policy, so why would they win even if they were the only ones promising to Brexit? Some would not vote for a deal supporting MP, others would not vote for a no deal supporting MP. Labour would maintain their current stance, saying that since an extension would in any case have been asked for if they won they would renegotiate a better deal and keep everything on the table. So whichever won we'd be back with the same problem of a parliament that has not actually decided what it will do. It does not make the position re the backstop stronger. The deal has already been rejected as strongly as one could possibly have imagined, and the EU aren't budging an inch. Why would they do so if an election confirmed that position? Bercow would win his seat and be kept as Speaker, because he retains the support of the opposition and many Tories still. Add to that the parliament may be just as or more divided than at present.
So in short, all it achieves is a delay, shuffles the cards around a bit, but the decision before them all is the same. MPs opposed to no deal would be just as opposed as they are now, and the arguments about Brexit would remain unchanged.
A GE is a very bad idea. What will it resolve? Nothing.
If the decision has to go to the people let’s have a second referendum: Leave on the terms negotiated or Remain. And get that Art 50 extension agreed pronto.
Stop all this faffing about.
Problem is, too many people benefit from faff and TM does not want a referendum.
She knows(or fears at least) that remain will win. But it's also the only chance her deal has, she needs to give in already.
From Mays POV a GE has huge advantages.
It’s quicker She has control of the manifesto and if necessary candidate selection. Given her party has confidence in her she has the power to force her deal into the manifesto. Hardcore Enemies in her own party will have to accept or stand against her and almost certainly lose. Corbyn has fucked it up a bit and has no clear policy. Remain offered only by the LibDems will lose. It is a way of reviving her political career and dealing with 2017.
It will be a General Election rather than a referendum.
And we can watch Boris contortions in Uxbridge with relish.
A GE is a very bad idea. What will it resolve? Nothing.
If the decision has to go to the people let’s have a second referendum: Leave on the terms negotiated or Remain. And get that Art 50 extension agreed pronto.
Stop all this faffing about.
Problem is, too many people benefit from faff and TM does not want a referendum.
She knows(or fears at least) that remain will win. But it's also the only chance her deal has, she needs to give in already.
Hardcore Enemies in her own party will have to accept or stand against her and almost certainly lose.
Except they wouldn't have to do that. At the extreme end you have MPs like Woodcock who, despite being the Labour candidate, openly stated before an election that he could not countenance his party leader to be PM. There are plenty of other lesser examples of prospective MPs who disagree with their leaders, one Jeremy Corbyn for instance. MPs might stand under the manifesto and just tell their voters they won't follow that part of it.
What's May going to do, force out 100 ERGers? That would cost them plenty of votes, and that ignoring that no deal is more popular than deal anyway so forcing the party to back that is no guarantee of popular success.
Plus Corbyn will be promising everything to all sides, both a better Brexit while Starmer et al play up that we might remain anyway if they cannot get a better brexit, nudge nudge wink wink. It'd be cynical, but effective.
On Newsnight last night, you could see Boris Johnson and David Davis already trialling the lines for a 'No Deal' campaign. "Oh, it wouldn't really be No Deal, if we really looked like we were going go through with it then the EU would fold a few days before, they're just bluffing, we just haven't gone in hard enough yet, they're not going to cut off their biggest trading partner out of spite"
I have to admire the naivete of some of the second referendum campaigners who think this time will be different, that magically there's going to be one set of undisputed "facts" this time that all voters accept, that there's going to be some noble new set of rules that Brexit campaigners will abide by this time. The Brexit campaign will 100% rehash the same bluster and bullshit as last time, and IMO there's a high chance that 50%+ of the electorate will believe it, again.
A GE is a very bad idea. What will it resolve? Nothing.
If the decision has to go to the people let’s have a second referendum: Leave on the terms negotiated or Remain. And get that Art 50 extension agreed pronto.
Stop all this faffing about.
Problem is, too many people benefit from faff and TM does not want a referendum.
Far more people are being prejudiced asa result of faff. TM’s wishes should not be paramount. This is not about her but about what is best for the country. The reason I now dislike Mrs May is that she is making this all about her and her deal. It’s all very “l’etat c’est moi”.
Enough with this Charles I-style authoritarianism. If she’s blocking possible routes to a resolution then she needs to get out of the way - or be pushed - if necessary.
There were two mechanisms to change her. She won. We need to accept that. She is PM. She doesn’t want a referendum. So we ain’t getting one. A GE with her deal inthe Tory manifesto is where this is heading I think.
A GE is a very bad idea. What will it resolve? Nothing.
If the decision has to go to the people let’s have a second referendum: Leave on the terms negotiated or Remain. And get that Art 50 extension agreed pronto.
Stop all this faffing about.
Problem is, too many people benefit from faff and TM does not want a referendum.
She knows(or fears at least) that remain will win. But it's also the only chance her deal has, she needs to give in already.
From Mays POV a GE has huge advantages.
It’s quicker She has control of the manifesto and if necessary candidate selection. Given her party has confidence in her she has the power to force her deal into the manifesto. Hardcore Enemies in her own party will have to accept or stand against her and almost certainly lose. Corbyn has fucked it up a bit and has no clear policy. Remain offered only by the LibDems will lose. It is a way of reviving her political career and dealing with 2017.
It will be a General Election rather than a referendum.
And we can watch Boris contortions in Uxbridge with relish.
Even I'd be getting out on the Piccadilly Line to join the Labour campaign for that one.
A GE is a very bad idea. What will it resolve? Nothing.
If the decision has to go to the people let’s have a second referendum: Leave on the terms negotiated or Remain. And get that Art 50 extension agreed pronto.
Stop all this faffing about.
Problem is, too many people benefit from faff and TM does not want a referendum.
She knows(or fears at least) that remain will win. But it's also the only chance her deal has, she needs to give in already.
Hardcore Enemies in her own party will have to accept or stand against her and almost certainly lose.
Except they wouldn't have to do that. At the extreme end you have MPs like Woodcock who, despite being the Labour candidate, openly stated before an election that he could not countenance his party leader to be PM. There are plenty of other lesser examples of prospective MPs who disagree with their leaders, one Jeremy Corbyn for instance. MPs might stand under the manifesto and just tell their voters they won't follow that part of it.
What's May going to do, force out 100 ERGers? That would cost them plenty of votes, and that ignoring that no deal is more popular than deal anyway so forcing the party to back that is no guarantee of popular success.
Plus Corbyn will be promising everything to all sides, both a better Brexit while Starmer et al play up that we might remain anyway if they cannot get a better brexit, nudge nudge wink wink. It'd be cynical, but effective.
She doesn’t have to force out all 100. Just enough, who refuse to sign up to the manifesto. It’s a win win. She has nothing left to lose.
A GE is a very bad idea. What will it resolve? Nothing.
If the decision has to go to the people let’s have a second referendum: Leave on the terms negotiated or Remain. And get that Art 50 extension agreed pronto.
Stop all this faffing about.
But do you really think another referendum would go any differently to last time?
In any case, given May's deal is dead, I would've thought if there was to be one then the choices would be Remain v No Deal -- even some of the "People's Vote" people like Chuka Umunna have admitted that.
He thinks it gives remain an even better chance of winning, of course he admits that, remain is the only thing he cares about. But allowing no deal to be a choice makes every MP who blubbers about how catastrophic and unacceptable it would be a liar.
A GE is a very bad idea. What will it resolve? Nothing.
If the decision has to go to the people let’s have a second referendum: Leave on the terms negotiated or Remain. And get that Art 50 extension agreed pronto.
Stop all this faffing about.
Problem is, too many people benefit from faff and TM does not want a referendum.
She knows(or fears at least) that remain will win. But it's also the only chance her deal has, she needs to give in already.
Hardcore Enemies in her own party will have to accept or stand against her and almost certainly lose.
Except they wouldn't have to do that. At the extreme end you have MPs like Woodcock who, despite being the Labour candidate, openly stated before an election that he could not countenance his party leader to be PM. There are plenty of other lesser examples of prospective MPs who disagree with their leaders, one Jeremy Corbyn for instance. MPs might stand under the manifesto and just tell their voters they won't follow that part of it.
What's May going to do, force out 100 ERGers? That would cost them plenty of votes, and that ignoring that no deal is more popular than deal anyway so forcing the party to back that is no guarantee of popular success.
Plus Corbyn will be promising everything to all sides, both a better Brexit while Starmer et al play up that we might remain anyway if they cannot get a better brexit, nudge nudge wink wink. It'd be cynical, but effective.
She doesn’t have to force out all 100. Just enough, who refuse to sign up to the manifesto. It’s a win win. She has nothing left to lose.
Signing them up to it is no guarantee they will then do it.
A GE is a very bad idea. What will it resolve? Nothing.
If the decision has to go to the people let’s have a second referendum: Leave on the terms negotiated or Remain. And get that Art 50 extension agreed pronto.
Stop all this faffing about.
Problem is, too many people benefit from faff and TM does not want a referendum.
She knows(or fears at least) that remain will win. But it's also the only chance her deal has, she needs to give in already.
From Mays POV a GE has huge advantages.
It’s quicker She has control of the manifesto and if necessary candidate selection. Given her party has confidence in her she has the power to force her deal into the manifesto. Hardcore Enemies in her own party will have to accept or stand against her and almost certainly lose. Corbyn has fucked it up a bit and has no clear policy. Remain offered only by the LibDems will lose. It is a way of reviving her political career and dealing with 2017.
It will be a General Election rather than a referendum.
You reinforce my point. It’s about reviving her political career and fuck the rest of us.
If that is the attitude of May’s Tories they are not getting my vote. Since Parliament cannot decide, send it back to us.
A GE is a very bad idea. What will it resolve? Nothing.
If the decision has to go to the people let’s have a second referendum: Leave on the terms negotiated or Remain. And get that Art 50 extension agreed pronto.
Stop all this faffing about.
A GE might help to resolve things IF, and only if, one of the parties likely to form the Government campaigned on a definite IN or indeed 'OUT (with no deal) platform.
A GE could resolve things if the parties were clear in their manifestos what they wanted.
But, we will not get any clarity in the manifestos -- either from Labour or from the Tories -- just herds upon herds of unicorns, as far as the eye can see.
And to be fair, what is the advantage of clarity for the parties?
After all, the LibDems WERE clear in 2017 -- look what happened to them? They couldn't even get Remainers to vote for them in significant numbers.
Many people bear some responsibility for the impasse -- perhaps Remainers who voted for a Brexit manifesto bear some?
A GE is a very bad idea. What will it resolve? Nothing.
If the decision has to go to the people let’s have a second referendum: Leave on the terms negotiated or Remain. And get that Art 50 extension agreed pronto.
Stop all this faffing about.
Problem is, too many people benefit from faff and TM does not want a referendum.
She knows(or fears at least) that remain will win. But it's also the only chance her deal has, she needs to give in already.
Hardcore Enemies in her own party will have to accept or stand against her and almost certainly lose.
Except they wouldn't have to do that. At the extreme end you have MPs like Woodcock who, despite being the Labour candidate, openly stated before an election that he could not countenance his party leader to be PM. There are plenty of other lesser examples of prospective MPs who disagree with their leaders, one Jeremy Corbyn for instance. MPs might stand under the manifesto and just tell their voters they won't follow that part of it.
What's May going to do, force out 100 ERGers? That would cost them plenty of votes, and that ignoring that no deal is more popular than deal anyway so forcing the party to back that is no guarantee of popular success.
Plus Corbyn will be promising everything to all sides, both a better Brexit while Starmer et al play up that we might remain anyway if they cannot get a better brexit, nudge nudge wink wink. It'd be cynical, but effective.
She doesn’t have to force out all 100. Just enough, who refuse to sign up to the manifesto. It’s a win win. She has nothing left to lose.
Signing them up to it is no guarantee they will then do it.
No guarantees in anything, but this and with a few gains from Labour would free her from the DUP whilst reinforcing the party. A referendum would weaken her and the party, She has nothing to lose and potentially a lot more to gain. Certainly more than in a referendum.
I have to admire the naivete of some of the second referendum campaigners who think this time will be different, that magically there's going to be one set of undisputed "facts" this time that all voters accept, that there's going to be some noble new set of rules that Brexit campaigners will abide by this time. .
Well exactly. I don't see a better route out of this mess in terms of at least choosing an option, but a second vote gets very oversold on the assumption everyone will be an enlightened superbeing who considers only that which they should.
A GE is a very bad idea. What will it resolve? Nothing.
If the decision has to go to the people let’s have a second referendum: Leave on the terms negotiated or Remain. And get that Art 50 extension agreed pronto.
Stop all this faffing about.
A GE gives the TM the best opportunity from the current impasse to deliver Brexit, It will be the tories vs those trying to block Brexit, and Corbyn will do worse than 2017, the voters have learnt that they cant risk another protest, and the tories wont make the same strategic mistakes they made in 2017. TM will get her majority and hopefully will play hard ball with EU over backstop from a stronger position in parliament. Bercow will be resigned to history, and Corbyn will be finished too, whats not to like about it!
A GE is the traditional way to solve an impasse under our system.
Doubt her party would let her, even is she came to this conclusion.
A GE didn’t solve the impasse last time. I doubt it will this time.
A GE is a very bad idea. What will it resolve? Nothing.
If the decision has to go to the people let’s have a second referendum: Leave on the terms negotiated or Remain. And get that Art 50 extension agreed pronto.
Stop all this faffing about.
Problem is, too many people benefit from faff and TM does not want a referendum.
She knows(or fears at least) that remain will win. But it's also the only chance her deal has, she needs to give in already.
From Mays POV a GE has huge advantages.
It’s quicker She has control of the manifesto and if necessary candidate selection. Given her party has confidence in her she has the power to force her deal into the manifesto. Hardcore Enemies in her own party will have to accept or stand against her and almost certainly lose. Corbyn has fucked it up a bit and has no clear policy. Remain offered only by the LibDems will lose. It is a way of reviving her political career and dealing with 2017.
It will be a General Election rather than a referendum.
You reinforce my point. It’s about reviving her political career and fuck the rest of us.
If that is the attitude of May’s Tories they are not getting my vote. Since Parliament cannot decide, send it back to us.
We have to look at it from her point of view. If you were her would you rather win your deal (the best solution in the national interest as she sees it) via a people’s vote or via a majority won at a General Election that clears out the nutters and frees her from the DUP.
A GE is a very bad idea. What will it resolve? Nothing.
If the decision has to go to the people let’s have a second referendum: Leave on the terms negotiated or Remain. And get that Art 50 extension agreed pronto.
Stop all this faffing about.
Problem is, too many people benefit from faff and TM does not want a referendum.
She knows(or fears at least) that remain will win. But it's also the only chance her deal has, she needs to give in already.
Hardcore Enemies in her own party will have to accept or stand against her and almost certainly lose.
Except they wouldn't have to do that. At the extreme end you have MPs like Woodcock who, despite being the Labour candidate, openly stated before an election that he could not countenance his party leader to be PM. There are plenty of other lesser examples of prospective MPs who disagree with their leaders, one Jeremy Corbyn for instance. MPs might stand under the manifesto and just tell their voters they won't follow that part of it.
What's May going to do, force out 100 ERGers? That would cost them plenty of votes, and that ignoring that no deal is more popular than deal anyway so forcing the party to back that is no guarantee of popular success.
Plus Corbyn will be promising everything to all sides, both a better Brexit while Starmer et al play up that we might remain anyway if they cannot get a better brexit, nudge nudge wink wink. It'd be cynical, but effective.
Quite. And some prominent Brexiteers are very vulnerable to tactical voting by remainers - Boris and IDS being obvious examples. I think those two would both be out if there was an early election. It would be harder for leavers to do the same to remainers because the vast majority of candidates will, of course, be remainers. So an election is likely to shift us further in the direction of a softer Brexit, just as the last one did.
A GE is a very bad idea. What will it resolve? Nothing.
If the decision has to go to the people let’s have a second referendum: Leave on the terms negotiated or Remain. And get that Art 50 extension agreed pronto.
Stop all this faffing about.
A GE gives the TM the best opportunity from the current impasse to deliver Brexit, It will be the tories vs those trying to block Brexit, and Corbyn will do worse than 2017, the voters have learnt that they cant risk another protest, and the tories wont make the same strategic mistakes they made in 2017. TM will get her majority and hopefully will play hard ball with EU over backstop from a stronger position in parliament. Bercow will be resigned to history, and Corbyn will be finished too, whats not to like about it!
Well I'd prefer Corbyn got a bit more practice as Leader of Her Majesty's Loyal opposition. Say 15 or 20 years.
That aside, I think his position as leader is secure for however long he wants. He has the apparatus in place to maintain control and those MPs/ councillors who don't follow his line are being gradually deselected. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45621354
And all those oldies who voted for brexit and whose demise is being celebrated by Polly Toynbee, are the ones who formed the bedrock of the Labour movement. Labour are losing their core central-left vote with each orbituary in the local paper. This means that they will inevitably move more to the left - making it that much harder to take Tory voters.
With regard to President Trump. I note that the latest scandal in buzzfeed seems to have greatly exaggerated. Commentators should be very careful to ensure that they are being objective and not just listening to echoes from people with similar world-views. The Democrat party has launched an attack on the US electoral college - just think of the constitutional changes that represents. (I can't imagine President Trump being successfully impeached with the Republican majority in the Senate but would the markets pay out on the House of representatives passing a motion of impeachment?)
A GE is a very bad idea. What will it resolve? Nothing.
If the decision has to go to the people let’s have a second referendum: Leave on the terms negotiated or Remain. And get that Art 50 extension agreed pronto.
Stop all this faffing about.
A GE gives the TM the best opportunity from the current impasse to deliver Brexit, It will be the tories vs those trying to block Brexit, and Corbyn will do worse than 2017, the voters have learnt that they cant risk another protest, and the tories wont make the same strategic mistakes they made in 2017. TM will get her majority and hopefully will play hard ball with EU over backstop from a stronger position in parliament. Bercow will be resigned to history, and Corbyn will be finished too, whats not to like about it!
A GE is the traditional way to solve an impasse under our system.
Doubt her party would let her, even is she came to this conclusion.
A GE didn’t solve the impasse last time. I doubt it will this time.
A GE is a very bad idea. What will it resolve? Nothing.
If the decision has to go to the people let’s have a second referendum: Leave on the terms negotiated or Remain. And get that Art 50 extension agreed pronto.
Stop all this faffing about.
A GE gives the TM the best opportunity from the current impasse to deliver Brexit, It will be the tories vs those trying to block Brexit, and Corbyn will do worse than 2017, the voters have learnt that they cant risk another protest, and the tories wont make the same strategic mistakes they made in 2017. TM will get her majority and hopefully will play hard ball with EU over backstop from a stronger position in parliament. Bercow will be resigned to history, and Corbyn will be finished too, whats not to like about it!
A GE is the traditional way to solve an impasse under our system.
Doubt her party would let her, even is she came to this conclusion.
A GE didn’t solve the impasse last time. I doubt it will this time.
Quite. A referendum is not a guaranteed solution either, but at least with a single question to consider it'll have a better chance of doing so.
Ideally neither would be necessary, but MPs refuse to compromise and are desperate to avoid blame above all else. That really does seem to be the key. They collectively don't want blame for no deal, or to share in the blame for any deal, nor to do what the majority of them obviously want and remain without cover. It's cowardly.
A GE is a very bad idea. What will it resolve? Nothing.
If the decision has to go to the people let’s have a second referendum: Leave on the terms negotiated or Remain. And get that Art 50 extension agreed pronto.
Stop all this faffing about.
Problem is, too many people benefit from faff and TM does not want a referendum.
Far more people are being prejudiced asa result of faff. TM’s wishes should not be paramount. This is not about her but about what is best for the country. The reason I now dislike Mrs May is that she is making this all about her and her deal. It’s all very “l’etat c’est moi”.
Enough with this Charles I-style authoritarianism. If she’s blocking possible routes to a resolution then she needs to get out of the way - or be pushed - if necessary.
There were two mechanisms to change her. She won. We need to accept that. She is PM. She doesn’t want a referendum. So we ain’t getting one. A GE with her deal inthe Tory manifesto is where this is heading I think.
She does not have unlimited power just because she won a VoNC.
She is a natural authoritarian who has done everything possible to avoid scrutiny of what she is doing by her Cabinet, her party and Parliament. She is not part of the solution. She is part of the problem.
A GE is a very bad idea. What will it resolve? Nothing.
If the decision has to go to the people let’s have a second referendum: Leave on the terms negotiated or Remain. And get that Art 50 extension agreed pronto.
Stop all this faffing about.
A GE might help to resolve things IF, and only if, one of the parties likely to form the Government campaigned on a definite IN or indeed 'OUT (with no deal) platform.
A GE could resolve things if the parties were clear in their manifestos what they wanted.
But, we will not get any clarity in the manifestos -- either from Labour or from the Tories -- just herds upon of unicorns, as far as the eye can see.
And to be fair, what is the advantage of clarity for the parties?
After all, the LibDems WERE clear in 2017 -- look what happened to them? They couldn't even get Remainers to vote for them in significant numbers.
Many people bear some responsibility for the impasse -- perhaps Remainers who voted for a Brexit manifesto party bear some?
Mr Stodge has made it clear that the LibDem party today isn't that which he joined (as did I) back in 80's. Or indeed from the Liberal Party for which I campaigned in the late 60's until the mid 70's. Clegg and the Coalition largely drove us out and we've been replaced. The general thrust is similar, of course, but it's still seen as the same party in too many minds, and the Coalition, though it did some good things facilitated some pretty awful Tory programmes, and until that can be forgotten, I'm not very optimistic, as a LibDem sympathiser.
A GE is a very bad idea. What will it resolve? Nothing.
If the decision has to go to the people let’s have a second referendum: Leave on the terms negotiated or Remain. And get that Art 50 extension agreed pronto.
Stop all this faffing about.
Problem is, too many people benefit from faff and TM does not want a referendum.
Far more people are being prejudiced asa result of faff. TM’s wishes should not be paramount. This is not about her but about what is best for the country. The reason I now dislike Mrs May is that she is making this all about her and her deal. It’s all very “l’etat c’est moi”.
Enough with this Charles I-style authoritarianism. If she’s blocking possible routes to a resolution then she needs to get out of the way - or be pushed - if necessary.
There were two mechanisms to change her. She won. We need to accept that. She is PM. She doesn’t want a referendum. So we ain’t getting one. A GE with her deal inthe Tory manifesto is where this is heading I think.
She does not have unlimited power just because she won a VoNC.
She is a natural authoritarian who has done everything possible to avoid scrutiny of what she is doing by her Cabinet, her party and Parliament. She is not part of the solution. She is part of the problem.
Agreed. But she is going nowhere whether we like it or not. That ship has sailed unless something unprecedented happens (again).
It seems prudent to assume that she stays and plot what happens then. Is there a super majority in Westminster for a GE? Probably, just.
If the amendment succeeds, it would allow a motion put forward by a minority of 300 MPs across five parties – including 10 MPs from the governing party – to stand as the first order of business
Um, if this is about parliament taking control why is this plan allowing a 'minority' of MPs to take control rather than a majority? I get that anything voted on required a majority in the end, but if that is the case why is the first stage not a majority? Is it ever a good idea to make up new procedural rules based on the very specific present circumstances, as the need for '5 parties and 10 from the governing party' demonstrates is the case here?
This all seems like more displacement activity. If there's 10 governing MPs who are willing to do the above they should be willing to use existing procedures to bring down the government. It seems like creating new rules for the sake of it.
On Newsnight last night, you could see Boris Johnson and David Davis already trialling the lines for a 'No Deal' campaign. "Oh, it wouldn't really be No Deal, if we really looked like we were going go through with it then the EU would fold a few days before, they're just bluffing, we just haven't gone in hard enough yet, they're not going to cut off their biggest trading partner out of spite"
I have to admire the naivete of some of the second referendum campaigners who think this time will be different, that magically there's going to be one set of undisputed "facts" this time that all voters accept, that there's going to be some noble new set of rules that Brexit campaigners will abide by this time. The Brexit campaign will 100% rehash the same bluster and bullshit as last time, and IMO there's a high chance that 50%+ of the electorate will believe it, again.
I am not naive. We may well get a vote for Leave on May’s terms if a referendum is held again. So be it. That would be better than a chaotic No Deal departure, which is where we are currently headed.
The naivete of those politicians and commentators who think a no deal departure will be fine is what really worries me. It is culpable and dangerous negligence.
A GE is a very bad idea. What will it resolve? Nothing.
If the decision has to go to the people let’s have a second referendum: Leave on the terms negotiated or Remain. And get that Art 50 extension agreed pronto.
Stop all this faffing about.
A GE gives the TM the best opportunity from the current impasse to deliver Brexit, It will be the tories vs those trying to block Brexit, and Corbyn will do worse than 2017, the voters have learnt that they cant risk another protest, and the tories wont make the same strategic mistakes they made in 2017. TM will get her majority and hopefully will play hard ball with EU over backstop from a stronger position in parliament. Bercow will be resigned to history, and Corbyn will be finished too, whats not to like about it!
A GE is the traditional way to solve an impasse under our system.
Doubt her party would let her, even is she came to this conclusion.
A GE didn’t solve the impasse last time. I doubt it will this time.
I think it probably would, in some accidental way - it is really just an oddity that the current balance is held by the DUP. I really have no certainty about which way things would shift, but the probability is that they would either shift enough to give May a majority no longer dependent on the DUP and squeeze her deal through, or shift enough to let Corbyn prove we have better unicorns, or find that we don't and end up with a referendum.
A GE is a very bad idea. What will it resolve? Nothing.
If the decision has to go to the people let’s have a second referendum: Leave on the terms negotiated or Remain. And get that Art 50 extension agreed pronto.
Stop all this faffing about.
Problem is, too many people benefit from faff and TM does not want a referendum.
Far more people are being prejudiced asa result of faff. TM’s wishes should not be paramount. This is not about her but about what is best for the country. The reason I now dislike Mrs May is that she is making this all about her and her deal. It’s all very “l’etat c’est moi”.
Enough with this Charles I-style authoritarianism. If she’s blocking possible routes to a resolution then she needs to get out of the way - or be pushed - if necessary.
There were two mechanisms to change her. She won. We need to accept that. She is PM. She doesn’t want a referendum. So we ain’t getting one. A GE with her deal inthe Tory manifesto is where this is heading I think.
She does not have unlimited power just because she won a VoNC.
She is a natural authoritarian who has done everything possible to avoid scrutiny of what she is doing by her Cabinet, her party and Parliament. She is not part of the solution. She is part of the problem.
Yes she is part of the problem and she does need to bend or be made to bend. But she is hardly the only one demanding that others do exactly as they say and calling that compromise here. As you say, a part of the problem. But not the whole of it.
A GE is a very bad idea. What will it resolve? Nothing.
If the decision has to go to the people let’s have a second referendum: Leave on the terms negotiated or Remain. And get that Art 50 extension agreed pronto.
Stop all this faffing about.
A GE gives the TM the best opportunity from the current impasse to deliver Brexit, It will be the tories vs those trying to block Brexit, and Corbyn will do worse than 2017, the voters have learnt that they cant risk another protest, and the tories wont make the same strategic mistakes they made in 2017. TM will get her majority and hopefully will play hard ball with EU over backstop from a stronger position in parliament. Bercow will be resigned to history, and Corbyn will be finished too, whats not to like about it!
A GE is the traditional way to solve an impasse under our system.
Doubt her party would let her, even is she came to this conclusion.
A GE didn’t solve the impasse last time. I doubt it will this time.
I think it probably would, in some accidental way - it is really just an oddity that the current balance is held by the DUP. I really have no certainty about which way things would shift, but the probability is that they would either shift enough to give May a majority no longer dependent on the DUP and squeeze her deal through, or shift enough to let Corbyn prove we have better unicorns, or find that we don't and end up with a referendum.
Corbyn, can he find a Brexit policy that will maintain the Labour coalition? He has no offer for remainers this time unless he changes tack. He got a lot of hope/trust last time from young remainers, he cant bank on that now.
It seems to me virtually impossible for any realistic Brexit deal to get through this parliament. Not because of the inadequacies of the people sitting in it, but because of its configuration and the clashing priorities of the key players. The irreducible problem is that it is not only the DUP who hold the balance of power, although this is a problem and a big one, but that around half a dozen competing factions, including the government, ALL hold the balance of power.
It looks intractable. This parliament cannot do the business for us on Brexit, so we need a new and different parliament, i.e. we need a GENERAL ELECTION. Far from being a distraction and a waste of time, it is the one thing that has a decent chance of resolving the impasse in a short time-frame. OK, it might not, it might return another fiendishly hung House, but it also might provide a clear majority to somebody, or at least more promising parliamentary arithmetic.
If I were TM, utterly cornered as she is, calling a GE is what I would do - if I thought I could get it through the Tory party. It may be a nonsense rumour, but if she does do it I will be applauding her for a ballsy move, a smart move, the right move. It would be genuinely in the national interest.
A GE is a very bad idea. What will it resolve? Nothing.
If the decision has to go to the people let’s have a second referendum: Leave on the terms negotiated or Remain. And get that Art 50 extension agreed pronto.
Stop all this faffing about.
A GE gives the TM the best opportunity from the current impasse to deliver Brexit, It will be the tories vs those trying to block Brexit, and Corbyn will do worse than 2017, the voters have learnt that they cant risk another protest, and the tories wont make the same strategic mistakes they made in 2017. TM will get her majority and hopefully will play hard ball with EU over backstop from a stronger position in parliament. Bercow will be resigned to history, and Corbyn will be finished too, whats not to like about it!
A GE is the traditional way to solve an impasse under our system.
Doubt her party would let her, even is she came to this conclusion.
A GE didn’t solve the impasse last time. I doubt it will this time.
I think it probably would, in some accidental way - it is really just an oddity that the current balance is held by the DUP. I really have no certainty about which way things would shift, but the probability is that they would either shift enough to give May a majority no longer dependent on the DUP and squeeze her deal through, or shift enough to let Corbyn prove we have better unicorns, or find that we don't and end up with a referendum.
Unless May has a stonking majority she cannot get her deal through on Tory votes alone. Even were the DUP onboard now she'd not get it through because of no dealers. And as you point out if Corbyn cannot find better unicorns other options have to then be looked at. Both of which prove that even in your scenario the GE won't have solved the impasse, even if it makes some solutions slightly easier or harder.
It is widely acknowledged on this forum that with a decent Leader, Labour would be streets ahead of the Tories in the polls. One development however that would immediately put Labour well clear, even with the current unreconstructed Socialist in charge, would be for TM to call a GE.
I won't post on this again (after this) for now because I'm off.
What the widely acknowledged but completely unproven and completely without any kind of workings behind it statement about a 'decent leader' or variations on it ignores is
41% of Labour voters voted, as their primary reason for Corbyn or the policies. The decent leader is always assumed to be a centrist type. Labour aren't going to do better by taking away the primary reason for 41% of their votes.
If you talk about hypothetical leaders then many people around the country can pick a Labour figure and imagine their Brexit policy and other domestic policies and vote Labour. The actual Labour leader would have to only be one person with only one policy though and would take all the usual attack from the right wing papers. They would have to let down left wing voters to enact centrist policy instead or let down all these potential centrists by sticking with the policies.
I would be very impressed if this person managed to find themself in a better position than Corbyn is currently.
Edit: Also when Corbyn was doing far worse there was alternate leader polling which didn't show much difference (at least I'm sure I remember it) can't find it though.
All good points. I think the solution is a broader Labour Party with more centrists in prominent positions. The biggest problem the Labour Party has from my point of view as a potential voter is they seem very short of good spokesmen. Obviously this is less of a problem than the Tories have whose their policies are contrary to the interests of the country, but it is still a problem.
TBH I would be more than happy to have a few people like say Cooper. As long as they were happy to work towards a Corbyn government at the next election and could compromise but not just a mouthpiece they should have their input respected.
The problem is the way the situation has played out (centrists largely left cabinet and everything else that went on) and Corbyn is quite loyal to those who stepped up, some don't want to serve or wouldn't really be loyally serving. It obviously couldn't go back to how it was before.
+1. I think a couple of key appointments - Cooper and EdM, say (does anyone still feel that incompetence at eating bacon sandwiches is a major flaw?) - would send the right signal without upsetting the balance.
A GE is a very bad idea. What will it resolve? Nothing.
If the decision has to go to the people let’s have a second referendum: Leave on the terms negotiated or Remain. And get that Art 50 extension agreed pronto.
Stop all this faffing about.
Problem is, too many people benefit from faff and TM does not want a referendum.
Far more people are being prejudiced asa result of faff. TM’s wishes should not be paramount. This is not about her but about what is best for the country. The reason I now dislike Mrs May is that she is making this all about her and her deal. It’s all very “l’etat c’est moi”.
Enough with this Charles I-style authoritarianism. If she’s blocking possible routes to a resolution then she needs to get out of the way - or be pushed - if necessary.
There were two mechanisms to change her. She won. We need to accept that. She is PM. She doesn’t want a referendum. So we ain’t getting one. A GE with her deal inthe Tory manifesto is where this is heading I think.
She does not have unlimited power just because she won a VoNC.
She is a natural authoritarian who has done everything possible to avoid scrutiny of what she is doing by her Cabinet, her party and Parliament. She is not part of the solution. She is part of the problem.
Yes she is part of the problem and she does need to bend or be made to bend. But she is hardly the only one demanding that others do exactly as they say and calling that compromise here. As you say, a part of the problem. But not the whole of it.
And never forget - she has the authority of the post of the Prime Minister behind her position. She has reached the top of the greasy poll of public office - unlike the pygmies beneath her.
Corbyn, can he find a Brexit policy that will maintain the Labour coalition? He has no offer for remainers this time unless he changes tack. He got a lot of hope/trust last time from young remainers, he cant bank on that now.
Corbyn, can he find a Brexit policy that will maintain the Labour coalition? He has no offer for remainers this time unless he changes tack. He got a lot of hope/trust last time from young remainers, he cant bank on that now.
A GE is a very bad idea. What will it resolve? Nothing.
If the decision has to go to the people let’s have a second referendum: Leave on the terms negotiated or Remain. And get that Art 50 extension agreed pronto.
Stop all this faffing about.
Problem is, too many people benefit from faff and TM does not want a referendum.
She knows(or fears at least) that remain will win. But it's also the only chance her deal has, she needs to give in already.
From Mays POV a GE has huge advantages.
It’s quicker She has control of the manifesto and if necessary candidate selection. Given her party has confidence in her she has the power to force her deal into the manifesto. Hardcore Enemies in her own party will have to accept or stand against her and almost certainly lose. Corbyn has fucked it up a bit and has no clear policy. Remain offered only by the LibDems will lose. It is a way of reviving her political career and dealing with 2017.
It will be a General Election rather than a referendum.
You reinforce my point. It’s about reviving her political career and fuck the rest of us.
If that is the attitude of May’s Tories they are not getting my vote. Since Parliament cannot decide, send it back to us.
We have to look at it from her point of view. If you were her would you rather win your deal (the best solution in the national interest as she sees it) via a people’s vote or via a majority won at a General Election that clears out the nutters and frees her from the DUP.
She has been sucking up to the nutters and headbangers in her party ever since she got into power. That’s why we’re in this mess.
She needs to stop confusing what’s in the national interest with what’s in her interest.
Corbyn, can he find a Brexit policy that will maintain the Labour coalition? He has no offer for remainers this time unless he changes tack. He got a lot of hope/trust last time from young remainers, he cant bank on that now.
A Brexit for the many, not the few!
“Many Brexits, not remain, phew!” Labour Manifesto 2019
A GE is a very bad idea. What will it resolve? Nothing.
If the decision has to go to the people let’s have a second referendum: Leave on the terms negotiated or Remain. And get that Art 50 extension agreed pronto.
Stop all this faffing about.
Problem is, too many people benefit from faff and TM does not want a referendum.
She knows(or fears at least) that remain will win. But it's also the only chance her deal has, she needs to give in already.
From Mays POV a GE has huge advantages.
It’s quicker She has control of the manifesto and if necessary candidate selection. Given her party has confidence in her she has the power to force her deal into the manifesto. Hardcore Enemies in her own party will have to accept or stand against her and almost certainly lose. Corbyn has fucked it up a bit and has no clear policy. Remain offered only by the LibDems will lose. It is a way of reviving her political career and dealing with 2017.
It will be a General Election rather than a referendum.
You reinforce my point. It’s about reviving her political career and fuck the rest of us.
If that is the attitude of May’s Tories they are not getting my vote. Since Parliament cannot decide, send it back to us.
We have to look at it from her point of view. If you were her would you rather win your deal (the best solution in the national interest as she sees it) via a people’s vote or via a majority won at a General Election that clears out the nutters and frees her from the DUP.
She has been sucking up to the nutters and headbangers in her party ever since she got into power. That’s why we’re in this mess.
She needs to stop confusing what’s in the national interest with what’s in her interest.
She can’t. They are the same. That’s the mess we are in and we can’t get rid. I think we have to accept that at the heart of the problem, plot what might then happen and see what opportunities exist in that context.
When someone tells you that close friends and colleagues have died recently going on and on about how pleased you are that old people are dying is pretty impolite and insensitive.
One of the nicest things about this forum is that when real life (in the form of illness, personal difficulties etc) intrude we step back and remember that posters are human beings and not just political opinions. Grabcocque is old enough to know better and forgot that basic rule.
+1. I've benefited from that myself at times and try to reciprocate. In the end these things matter more here than hammering out our views on our precise relationship with the EU - we can't decide that, but we can influence whether we feel we're among friends.
A GE is a very bad idea. What will it resolve? Nothing.
If the decision has to go to the people let’s have a second referendum: Leave on the terms negotiated or Remain. And get that Art 50 extension agreed pronto.
Stop all this faffing about.
A GE gives the TM the best opportunity from the current impasse to deliver Brexit, It will be the tories vs those trying to block Brexit, and Corbyn will do worse than 2017, the voters have learnt that they cant risk another protest, and the tories wont make the same strategic mistakes they made in 2017. TM will get her majority and hopefully will play hard ball with EU over backstop from a stronger position in parliament. Bercow will be resigned to history, and Corbyn will be finished too, whats not to like about it!
A GE is the traditional way to solve an impasse under our system.
Doubt her party would let her, even is she came to this conclusion.
A GE didn’t solve the impasse last time. I doubt it will this time.
I think it probably would, in some accidental way - it is really just an oddity that the current balance is held by the DUP. I really have no certainty about which way things would shift, but the probability is that they would either shift enough to give May a majority no longer dependent on the DUP and squeeze her deal through, or shift enough to let Corbyn prove we have better unicorns, or find that we don't and end up with a referendum.
Unless May has a stonking majority she cannot get her deal through on Tory votes alone. Even were the DUP onboard now she'd not get it through because of no dealers. And as you point out if Corbyn cannot find better unicorns other options have to then be looked at. Both of which prove that even in your scenario the GE won't have solved the impasse, even if it makes some solutions slightly easier or harder.
I would argue that, under our system, a GE should be tried before another Referendum is contemplated.
If Grieve wants to do things like this I really do not know why he does not just quit the whip already to bring down the government, I really don't. As true blue a conservative as he no doubt is, he clearly regards leaving the EU as something that must be stopped by any means necessary. Is hamfisted constitutional meddling which could have vast implications to do that really the best way to do so when he and a few others, which is all it would take, can sacrifice their Tory careers and just bring down the government?
Arcane procedural measures have their place, but this seems like a major shift which they are not thinking about consequences beyond a single vote on a single issue. The man is incredibly reckless and gets away with fanaticism because people agree with him.
A GE is a very bad idea. What will it resolve? Nothing.
If the decision has to go to the people let’s have a second referendum: Leave on the terms negotiated or Remain. And get that Art 50 extension agreed pronto.
Stop all this faffing about.
A GE gives the TM the best opportunity from the current impasse to deliver Brexit, It will be the tories vs those trying to block Brexit, and Corbyn will do worse than 2017, the voters have learnt that they cant risk another protest, and the tories wont make the same strategic mistakes they made in 2017. TM will get her majority and hopefully will play hard ball with EU over backstop from a stronger position in parliament. Bercow will be resigned to history, and Corbyn will be finished too, whats not to like about it!
A GE is the traditional way to solve an impasse under our system.
Doubt her party would let her, even is she came to this conclusion.
A GE didn’t solve the impasse last time. I doubt it will this time.
I think it probably would, in some accidental way - it is really just an oddity that the current balance is held by the DUP. I really have no certainty about which way things would shift, but the probability is that they would either shift enough to give May a majority no longer dependent on the DUP and squeeze her deal through, or shift enough to let Corbyn prove we have better unicorns, or find that we don't and end up with a referendum.
Corbyn, can he find a Brexit policy that will maintain the Labour coalition? He has no offer for remainers this time unless he changes tack. He got a lot of hope/trust last time from young remainers, he cant bank on that now.
Labour's Brexit policy will be to Not Talk About Brexit, just like last time. And tbh, I suspect the Tories would play along this time, since talking about Brexit would just remind voters of the shambles that had triggered the election in the first place.
IMO, if we do get into an election, Labour would talk mostly about ending austerity, the NHS, tuition fees and all the rest, the Tories would talk mostly about Trident & defence, Corbyn being crap, and "Labour always crash the economy", and the voters would settle for a largely Brexit-free election just like last time (it's not that voters "don't care" about Brexit like some suggest, but I do think it's true that they don't understand Brexit at all once it gets beyond the most general of generalities; the idea Joe Public is going to be demanding parties put on a discussion about the finer points of customs unions and backstops is for the birds).
He's taking tips from May, it'll be to confirm nothing has changed.
He's seen the fevered speculation leading up to her announcements, and the shock and confusion when nothing comes of it, and as a well known troll he'll love that.
Has he? How do you know? Shame if true, pb's a great site but it gets a bit predictable when it's all the same old orthodox set of takes.
His user ID shows as banned.
I never found out which former poster reinvented he was, but he did add to discussions and when he wasn't obviously trolling his arguments were usually worth thinking about. Banning him for a single comment last night when SeanT's rants have contained worse looks to me like a double standard.
Grabcocque’s real name (and his entertaining history as a Tory council candidate) is trivially Googlable. I believe he used to post under his real name years ago.
So they are! Tower Hamlets, 'nuff said
For those of us to thick to find out for ourselves, what's the story?
Taxi! For grabcocque
Wrong guy. You are thinking of Martin Day
True. It’s only the Lib Dem’s who can fit in a taxi
A GE is a very bad idea. What will it resolve? Nothing.
If the decision has to go to the people let’s have a second referendum: Leave on the terms negotiated or Remain. And get that Art 50 extension agreed pronto.
Stop all this faffing about.
A GE gives the TM the best opportunity from the current impasse to deliver Brexit, It will be the tories vs those trying to b like about it!
A GE is the traditional way to solve an impasse under our system.
Doubt her party would let her, even is she came to this conclusion.
A GE didn’t solve the impasse last time. I doubt it will this time.
I think it probably would, in some accidental way - it is really just an oddity that the current balance is held by the DUP. I really have no certainty about which way things would shift, but the probability is that they would either shift enough to give May a majority no longer dependent on the DUP and squeeze her deal through, or shift enough to let Corbyn prove we have better unicorns, or find that we don't and end up with a referendum.
Corbyn, can he find a Brexit policy that will maintain the Labour coalition? He has no offer for remainers this time unless he changes tack. He got a lot of hope/trust last time from young remainers, he cant bank on that now.
Labour's Brexit policy will be to Not Talk About Brexit, just like last time. And tbh, I suspect the Tories would play along this time, since talking about Brexit would just remind voters of the shambles that had triggered the election in the first place.
IMO, if we do get into an election, Labour would talk mostly about ending austerity, the NHS, tuition fees and all the rest, the Tories would talk mostly about Trident & defence, Corbyn being crap, and "Labour always crash the economy", and the voters would settle for a largely Brexit-free election just like last time (it's not that voters "don't care" about Brexit like some suggest, but I do think it's true that they don't understand Brexit at all once it gets beyond the most general of generalities; the idea Joe Public is going to be demanding parties put on a discussion about the finer points of customs unions and backstops is for the birds).
If a GE to resolve the Brexit impasse once again focuses mostly on non-Brexit issues it is yet another reason having one is a bloody silly idea. Those non-Brexit issues are very important indeed, but the critical short term issue to resolve is Brexit.
Comments
Not least because if we assume for the moment the Tories would fight under the deal banner and expect to win, labour have reason to say no even then. They'll be confident the Tories won't win and even if they do better the deal passes that way than labour votes for it.
And they still need dozens of labour votes. Even if mogg is wavering plenty of Tories won't.
That said, his acerbic, brief posts often have a good point - he's sort of like the lamented tim and the current SeanT in that way. So I'd like to see him welcomed back after a pause for thought.
The electorate has moved on, left wing voters want a left wing Labour party. You don't but you aren't usually a Labour voter. A Labour party appealing to you is not one that is electorally successful. The idea that Cooper would hugely improve on Labours current position when only Blair has actually done better than Corbyn and then only 2/3 times within decades is silly and based on what you want rather than the reality of the electorate.
If Labour presented itself as the party that would solve the problem by following a moderate, responsible, soft-Brexit course while the Tories continued to fight mainly with one another, it could make Theresa May's last snap election look like the wisdom of Solomon by comparison.
Now if YouGov want to punt out another 650 constituency forecast again I'm willing to listen given its astoubdong predictive power last time out but screaming about how Labour are miles behind when no other pollster has them behind since November is weak sauce.
She is 30
The public does not want a GE. It wants a resolution to Brexit.
One factor in May's poor result at the last Election was the correct and widely perceived understanding that it had been called for her Party's benefit, not for the country's. Her attempted opportunism cost dear. It would cost more, I'm sure, if she tried it again.
There are MP's who the Conservatives would be well rid of, such as Andrew Bridgen, Mark Francois, Priti Patel, Bill Wiggin etc.
The problem is that many of the rebels from a pro-Brexit point of view, are not headbangers, such as Crispin Blunt, Michael Fallon, Stephen McPartland, Matthew Offord. If they were forced out, they'd probably take most members and councillors with them.
One silver lining for me is that this has increased my respect and regard for sensible, rational, intelligent folk across the parties and here in particular.
When someone tells you that close friends and colleagues have died recently going on and on about how pleased you are that old people are dying is pretty impolite and insensitive.
One of the nicest things about this forum is that when real life (in the form of illness, personal difficulties etc) intrude we step back and remember that posters are human beings and not just political opinions. Grabcocque is old enough to know better and forgot that basic rule.
My secret crush, Lucy Worsley, is doing a series on America History's Biggest Fibs on BBC4, vg, and most timely.
The path to avoiding No Deal is open, and so is the path to Remain if they really want to take it. It's merely a matter of having the basic level of competence and coordination to walk down the sodding path.
Which is why there's still an excellent chance of Hard Brexit. It is debatable as to whether the most appropriate term is ineptocracy or kakistocracy, but whatever it is that's what the UK has become.
Gentlemen (an assumption I know, that you are all male) I am indeed grateful for your useful comments, upthread and especially for that provided by The Doctor!
My son is faced with difficulty because he has a technical degree (electronic engineering), and grew up in a household dominated by people with 'technical' qualifications (Pharmacy and Infant School teaching) and although my parents had post school qualifications they were similar. I broke out of the mould, with a very different Post grad qualification, but after my elder son had left home. We do have another, younger, son, who has more generalist qualifications (Economics) but he is not considered by his brother to be a good source of advice on life skills.
He is therefore conditioned to think of 'education' as a means to an end. My grandson's other grandparents had no post school education, so I'm the family member approached for advice.
As I say, I'm extremely grateful for the time you spent, and for the information given.
What the widely acknowledged but completely unproven and completely without any kind of workings behind it statement about a 'decent leader' or variations on it ignores is
41% of Labour voters voted, as their primary reason for Corbyn or the policies. The decent leader is always assumed to be a centrist type. Labour aren't going to do better by taking away the primary reason for 41% of their votes.
If you talk about hypothetical leaders then many people around the country can pick a Labour figure and imagine their Brexit policy and other domestic policies and vote Labour. The actual Labour leader would have to only be one person with only one policy though and would take all the usual attack from the right wing papers. They would have to let down left wing voters to enact centrist policy instead or let down all these potential centrists by sticking with the policies.
I would be very impressed if this person managed to find themself in a better position than Corbyn is currently.
Edit: Also when Corbyn was doing far worse there was alternate leader polling which didn't show much difference (at least I'm sure I remember it) can't find it though.
American History’s Biggest Fibs with Lucy Worsley, Series 1: 1. The American Revolution: www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m00023vy via @bbciplayer
The bit at the end on the brilliant hit musical Hamilton is thoughtful. I greatly enjoyed the show, but the subtext of social mobility, and hagiography of the founding fathers, makes for a far more right wing theme than the rapping, multi-ethnic cast would suggest.
If the decision has to go to the people let’s have a second referendum: Leave on the terms negotiated or Remain. And get that Art 50 extension agreed pronto.
Stop all this faffing about.
And the cartoon perfectly captures his Mussolini pout. 🙃
But there seems to be a new - and possibly imminent - way for the bet to pay off. The Grand Unity Coalition to stop Brexit will need a leader and that person could become PM. Yvette is respected and non-divisive and, I think, a strong candidate.
Which is why I was excited to see her strutting around Westminster attending high level 'compromise' talks with Theresa May. What worried me, however, was the constant presence at her side of Hilary Benn, and (even worse) how he seemed to be doing all the talking while Yvette just stood there quietly nodding. Was this simply a case of a female socially programmed to defer to a tall man, or does it mean that Benn is the leader of the insurrection and she is his number two? I hope it's the former.
Tick Tock.
Now that would be an interesting election.
ERG, Centrist Tories, Centrist Labour, Corbynites.
And the Lib Dems...
In any case, given May's deal is dead, I would've thought if there was to be one then the choices would be Remain v No Deal -- even some of the "People's Vote" people like Chuka Umunna have admitted that.
Gosh, this make me feel old.
Enough with this Charles I-style authoritarianism. If she’s blocking possible routes to a resolution then she needs to get out of the way - or be pushed - if necessary.
It’s quicker
She has control of the manifesto and if necessary candidate selection. Given her party has confidence in her she has the power to force her deal into the manifesto. Hardcore Enemies in her own party will have to accept or stand against her and almost certainly lose. Corbyn has fucked it up a bit and has no clear policy. Remain offered only by the LibDems will lose. It is a way of reviving her political career and dealing with 2017.
It will be a General Election rather than a referendum.
The problem is the way the situation has played out (centrists largely left cabinet and everything else that went on) and Corbyn is quite loyal to those who stepped up, some don't want to serve or wouldn't really be loyally serving. It obviously couldn't go back to how it was before.
Doubt her party would let her, even is she came to this conclusion.
Labour would maintain their current stance, saying that since an extension would in any case have been asked for if they won they would renegotiate a better deal and keep everything on the table.
So whichever won we'd be back with the same problem of a parliament that has not actually decided what it will do.
It does not make the position re the backstop stronger. The deal has already been rejected as strongly as one could possibly have imagined, and the EU aren't budging an inch. Why would they do so if an election confirmed that position?
Bercow would win his seat and be kept as Speaker, because he retains the support of the opposition and many Tories still.
Add to that the parliament may be just as or more divided than at present.
So in short, all it achieves is a delay, shuffles the cards around a bit, but the decision before them all is the same. MPs opposed to no deal would be just as opposed as they are now, and the arguments about Brexit would remain unchanged.
What's May going to do, force out 100 ERGers? That would cost them plenty of votes, and that ignoring that no deal is more popular than deal anyway so forcing the party to back that is no guarantee of popular success.
Plus Corbyn will be promising everything to all sides, both a better Brexit while Starmer et al play up that we might remain anyway if they cannot get a better brexit, nudge nudge wink wink. It'd be cynical, but effective.
I have to admire the naivete of some of the second referendum campaigners who think this time will be different, that magically there's going to be one set of undisputed "facts" this time that all voters accept, that there's going to be some noble new set of rules that Brexit campaigners will abide by this time. The Brexit campaign will 100% rehash the same bluster and bullshit as last time, and IMO there's a high chance that 50%+ of the electorate will believe it, again.
There has to be a line that can’t be crossed. Or else it’s horrible anarchy
If that is the attitude of May’s Tories they are not getting my vote. Since Parliament cannot decide, send it back to us.
But, we will not get any clarity in the manifestos -- either from Labour or from the Tories -- just herds upon herds of unicorns, as far as the eye can see.
And to be fair, what is the advantage of clarity for the parties?
After all, the LibDems WERE clear in 2017 -- look what happened to them? They couldn't even get Remainers to vote for them in significant numbers.
Many people bear some responsibility for the impasse -- perhaps Remainers who voted for a Brexit manifesto bear some?
That aside, I think his position as leader is secure for however long he wants. He has the apparatus in place to maintain control and those MPs/ councillors who don't follow his line are being gradually deselected. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45621354
And all those oldies who voted for brexit and whose demise is being celebrated by Polly Toynbee, are the ones who formed the bedrock of the Labour movement. Labour are losing their core central-left vote with each orbituary in the local paper. This means that they will inevitably move more to the left - making it that much harder to take Tory voters.
With regard to President Trump. I note that the latest scandal in buzzfeed seems to have greatly exaggerated. Commentators should be very careful to ensure that they are being objective and not just listening to echoes from people with similar world-views. The Democrat party has launched an attack on the US electoral college - just think of the constitutional changes that represents. (I can't imagine President Trump being successfully impeached with the Republican majority in the Senate but would the markets pay out on the House of representatives passing a motion of impeachment?)
Ideally neither would be necessary, but MPs refuse to compromise and are desperate to avoid blame above all else. That really does seem to be the key. They collectively don't want blame for no deal, or to share in the blame for any deal, nor to do what the majority of them obviously want and remain without cover. It's cowardly.
The fact it reinforces parties rather than undermine them will make it irresistible.
(To be clear I am not advocating a GE, I prefer a vote. I just dont think it can happen with an unshiftable PM against it)
She is a natural authoritarian who has done everything possible to avoid scrutiny of what she is doing by her Cabinet, her party and Parliament. She is not part of the solution. She is part of the problem.
It seems prudent to assume that she stays and plot what happens then. Is there a super majority in Westminster for a GE? Probably, just.
If the amendment succeeds, it would allow a motion put forward by a minority of 300 MPs across five parties – including 10 MPs from the governing party – to stand as the first order of business
Um, if this is about parliament taking control why is this plan allowing a 'minority' of MPs to take control rather than a majority? I get that anything voted on required a majority in the end, but if that is the case why is the first stage not a majority? Is it ever a good idea to make up new procedural rules based on the very specific present circumstances, as the need for '5 parties and 10 from the governing party' demonstrates is the case here?
This all seems like more displacement activity. If there's 10 governing MPs who are willing to do the above they should be willing to use existing procedures to bring down the government. It seems like creating new rules for the sake of it.
I am not naive. We may well get a vote for Leave on May’s terms if a referendum is held again. So be it. That would be better than a chaotic No Deal departure, which is where we are currently headed.
The naivete of those politicians and commentators who think a no deal departure will be fine is what really worries me. It is culpable and dangerous negligence.
It looks intractable. This parliament cannot do the business for us on Brexit, so we need a new and different parliament, i.e. we need a GENERAL ELECTION. Far from being a distraction and a waste of time, it is the one thing that has a decent chance of resolving the impasse in a short time-frame. OK, it might not, it might return another fiendishly hung House, but it also might provide a clear majority to somebody, or at least more promising parliamentary arithmetic.
If I were TM, utterly cornered as she is, calling a GE is what I would do - if I thought I could get it through the Tory party. It may be a nonsense rumour, but if she does do it I will be applauding her for a ballsy move, a smart move, the right move. It would be genuinely in the national interest.
Gawd 'elp us.
She needs to stop confusing what’s in the national interest with what’s in her interest.
National Emergency?
End of shutdown?
Resignation?
Arcane procedural measures have their place, but this seems like a major shift which they are not thinking about consequences beyond a single vote on a single issue. The man is incredibly reckless and gets away with fanaticism because people agree with him.
IMO, if we do get into an election, Labour would talk mostly about ending austerity, the NHS, tuition fees and all the rest, the Tories would talk mostly about Trident & defence, Corbyn being crap, and "Labour always crash the economy", and the voters would settle for a largely Brexit-free election just like last time (it's not that voters "don't care" about Brexit like some suggest, but I do think it's true that they don't understand Brexit at all once it gets beyond the most general of generalities; the idea Joe Public is going to be demanding parties put on a discussion about the finer points of customs unions and backstops is for the birds).
He's seen the fevered speculation leading up to her announcements, and the shock and confusion when nothing comes of it, and as a well known troll he'll love that.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2019/01/19/call-project-fear-like-stockpiling-makes-sense/