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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It’s time for the Tories to pick a candidate for Buckingham

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  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    Probably already posted but:

    Tulsi Gabbard: Democrat says she will run for president in 2020

    Oh. Iraq vet. Trump would have problems with Gabbard. I suppose he could say she was a coward as she came home alive.
    Maybe Putin will make him go easy on her, she seems to be his Plan B...
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Anazina said:

    Mr. Jonathan, appeasing political extremes is not clever.

    However, teaching the electorate that mainstream parties can and will ignore them when the little people have the temerity to disagree with the political class, who assumes the guise of masters and not servants of the public, will help fuel said extremes.

    Of course, the far left needs no help, as it already occupies the Labour front bench, but the far right, almost certainly through a new party rather than occupation of the Conservatives, could benefit significantly.

    [If we were to end up remaining, there would be ructions, but these would be diminished by holding a second referendum. Not doing so would be a worse course of action, in term's of public disenchantment with mainstream politics].

    Utterly pathetic. We should be taking on the knuckle draggers, not appeasing them you wimp!

    These pig-ignorant thickies should be laughed at, mocked and confronted, not conceded to.
    But they could easily win. Don't see a mocking strategy being effective.

    I would vote same way again and have yet to find any swappers.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Edmund,

    The rules change depending on the whim of Parliament, it seems. You might be sanguine about that, but those pesky voters used to believe they were the final arbiter.

    The voters are the final arbiter, they can change the MPs.
    They did, in 2017, for a vast majority who stood on a platform of leaving the EU.
    But didn't personally believe in it.
    If they didn’t personally believe in it, they shouldn’t have stood under that manifesto. They are now ignoring the wishes of those who elected them.
    You make the false assumption that they voted the way they did purely on Brexit policy. May called a Brexit election, but that was not what happend, Labour went on social care and generational inequality.

    In any case political manifestos have never been binding. We elect representatives, not place men and women.
    It's all about balance. Yes, we elect representatives not robotic delegates, and yes changes of direction between one election and the next are sometimes warranted.

    On the other hand, breaking manifesto commitments (especially on pivotal issues) isn't necessarily without consequence. If you stand on one platform and then switch to another, then why should voters believe that you will deliver for them next time you ask for their support?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742

    Probably already posted but:

    Tulsi Gabbard: Democrat says she will run for president in 2020

    Not much oxygen left for Bernie after Warren grabs the Occupy Wall Street people and Gabbard gets the Tankies.
    Gabbard is a non starter IMO, but as everyone apart from @HYFUD knows, both Sanders and Biden are too old to run.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,773

    Probably already posted but:

    Tulsi Gabbard: Democrat says she will run for president in 2020

    Oh. Iraq vet. Trump would have problems with Gabbard. I suppose he could say she was a coward as she came home alive.
    Maybe Putin will make him go easy on her, she seems to be his Plan B...
    Eh?
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    VI Polling all over the place again.

    Survation Lab 41 Con 38 from last GE most accurate pollster.

    You Gov has to be an outlier surely Every YG poll is way adrift of all other pollsters.

    WTF are they polling Tory Branch meetings.

    Have to say after my first bit of canvassing in ages Lab are in a much better position than at start of GE 2017 campaign and probably better than GE 2017 outcome.

    Certainly a good poll for Labour.
    One can see why they would like a GE on those figures.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    kle4 said:


    How things are selected for discussion is something of consequence . If the will of the commons to pass something were all that mattered the speaker need not have the power to reject anything. And you seem to have missed the Mr Herdson doesn't seem to mind the actual amendment here. Yes a lot of Tories deeply dislike the speaker. But others are using that as an excuse to pretend that is all it could possibly be. It's also a bit of a side issue to whether speakers should have main party challenger, a view many hold well before this incident.

    An underrated factor in politics is personal liking and dislikes. Bercow has a Marmite effect - lots of people (including me) really like him and find him a wonderful change from e.g. Betty Boothroyd, whose public popularity contrasts with what many of us thought was real favouritism for long-standing MPs over newcomers. And he's genuinely witty, which Speakers usually are not. Equally, many people find him really annoying. But I think he'd be gone if it wasn't for the large chunk of MPs who are fond of him, irrespective of whether he's being helpful.
    He should have gone over the bullying fiasco.

    He is simply unfit for office and is being kept in place by political bias
    Whatever the merits or otherwise of Bercow in general, last week he did the British people a massive service by allowing an amendment that will at least attempt to stop May wasting another week or two before deciding what to do next.

    The can cannot be kicked any more.

    It is time for Parliament to make a decision and implement it. Or hold a GE.
    I think one thing we can all agree on is that we want to see an end to the can kicking; however, holding a General Election at this late stage is impractical: there's not enough time. Besides, this Parliament should be made to clean up its own mess.

    I certainly wouldn't object to a General Election after Parliament has made its mind up, however. Depending on what Parliament decides and how it does it, a GE may become an inevitability anyway.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,505

    Sean_F said:

    O/T I see the Liberals and Centre Party in Sweden have broken with their Conservative allies to back the Social Democrats. I doubt if that will end well for them.

    I don't know why the Swedish Democrats simply aren't brought into Government, as they have been in Denmark and Austria, rather than making continual political martyrs of them.
    I know next to nothing about the politics of Sweden, but perhaps the political culture there precludes this in a way that that in Austria does not? The Moderates and their allies may be too afraid of taint by association.

    Imagine what would happen if, in a future UK Parliament, a Conservative Government was reliant on a bloc of 20 MPs from a widely disliked party further to the Right of it. The various 'progressives' would have a field day.

    The CDU/CSU in Germany could ditch the Grand Coalition, if they assembled an alternative alliance with the FDP and AfD. But neither the conservatives nor liberals contemplated doing a deal with the far Right there, either.
    Arguably, that's already the case. They're just inside the tent pissing out.

    The point on Swedish political culture is a good one, but fear of a progressive backlash is usually just that. And the term "far Right" is much abused and devalued. What it boils down to is the Swedish political system not seriously dealing with Swedes everyday concerns about mass immigration.

    Incidentally, I've seen two regular posters on here state - without irony - that our current Government is far Right. If (hopefully never) a real far Right party comes ever comes near to taking power in the UK they risk being ignored because their credibility will be shot and they will lack any language to meaningfully describe or differentiate it.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    Probably already posted but:

    Tulsi Gabbard: Democrat says she will run for president in 2020

    Oh. Iraq vet. Trump would have problems with Gabbard. I suppose he could say she was a coward as she came home alive.
    Maybe Putin will make him go easy on her, she seems to be his Plan B...
    Eh?
    There's a helpful summary on - um - Russia Today:
    https://www.rt.com/usa/448632-tulsi-gabbard-negative-reactions/
  • Mr. Tokyo, the electorate voted for:
    a party promising a referendum to have a majority
    MPs who backed a referendum
    to Leave in said referendum
    MPs then backed the result of the referendum
    two main parties in another election, both of whom backed leaving the EU

    The idea there's going to be anything other than a severely disgruntled, and understandably disgruntled, electorate if we end up remaining (especially without another referendum) is optimistic beyond the bounds of reason.

    Over 50% of voters at the last election backed parties that ruled out a No Deal Brexit. All opinion polls show that voters are opposed to a No Deal Brexit. The will of the people is not to leave the EU on a No Deal basis. Mrs May's deal is not the only way to prevent a No Deal. It is the only way to prevent one based on the prejudices that Mrs May has.

  • Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Edmund,

    The rules change depending on the whim of Parliament, it seems. You might be sanguine about that, but those pesky voters used to believe they were the final arbiter.

    The voters are the final arbiter, they can change the MPs.
    They did, in 2017, for a vast majority who stood on a platform of leaving the EU.
    But didn't personally believe in it.
    If they didn’t personally believe in it, they shouldn’t have stood under that manifesto. They are now ignoring the wishes of those who elected them.
    You make the false assumption that they voted the way they did purely on Brexit policy. May called a Brexit election, but that was not what happend, Labour went on social care and generational inequality.

    In any case political manifestos have never been binding. We elect representatives, not place men and women.
    It's all about balance. Yes, we elect representatives not robotic delegates, and yes changes of direction between one election and the next are sometimes warranted.

    On the other hand, breaking manifesto commitments (especially on pivotal issues) isn't necessarily without consequence. If you stand on one platform and then switch to another, then why should voters believe that you will deliver for them next time you ask for their support?
    Exactly. And again I repeat that all those channelling Burke and his original quotes about MPs being representatives not delegates should remember that when he put that into practice and voted against the wishes of his constituents the people of Bristol took the opportunity to dump him at the next election.
  • kle4 said:


    How things are selected for discussion is something of consequence . If the will of the commons to pass something were all that mattered the speaker need not have the power to reject anything. And you seem to have missed the Mr Herdson doesn't seem to mind the actual amendment here. Yes a lot of Tories deeply dislike the speaker. But others are using that as an excuse to pretend that is all it could possibly be. It's also a bit of a side issue to whether speakers should have main party challenger, a view many hold well before this incident.

    An underrated factor in politics is personal liking and dislikes. Bercow has a Marmite effect - lots of people (including me) really like him and find him a wonderful change from e.g. Betty Boothroyd, whose public popularity contrasts with what many of us thought was real favouritism for long-standing MPs over newcomers. And he's genuinely witty, which Speakers usually are not. Equally, many people find him really annoying. But I think he'd be gone if it wasn't for the large chunk of MPs who are fond of him, irrespective of whether he's being helpful.
    He should have gone over the bullying fiasco.

    He is simply unfit for office and is being kept in place by political bias
    You are a loyalist Big_G I expect you to say no less.... but if he upholds Parliament's rights the he gets my vote.
    Not really.

    He broke convention and thereby created a new precedent that even he accepts he needs to give consideration to

    He is pompous and his alleged bullying of staff and others demeans his office

    Indeed Betty Boothroyd was outspoken in her criticsm of him

    As an aside, I am content at Dominic Grieve's success in his amendment.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    kle4 said:


    How things are selected for discussion is something of consequence . If the will of the commons to pass something were all that mattered the speaker need not have the power to reject anything. And you seem to have missed the Mr Herdson doesn't seem to mind the actual amendment here. Yes a lot of Tories deeply dislike the speaker. But others are using that as an excuse to pretend that is all it could possibly be. It's also a bit of a side issue to whether speakers should have main party challenger, a view many hold well before this incident.

    An underrated factor in politics is personal liking and dislikes. Bercow has a Marmite effect - lots of people (including me) really like him and find him a wonderful change from e.g. Betty Boothroyd, whose public popularity contrasts with what many of us thought was real favouritism for long-standing MPs over newcomers. And he's genuinely witty, which Speakers usually are not. Equally, many people find him really annoying. But I think he'd be gone if it wasn't for the large chunk of MPs who are fond of him, irrespective of whether he's being helpful.
    He should have gone over the bullying fiasco.

    He is simply unfit for office and is being kept in place by political bias
    Why can't the Conservative Party and their DUP friends vote him out then ?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Foxy said:

    Probably already posted but:

    Tulsi Gabbard: Democrat says she will run for president in 2020

    Not much oxygen left for Bernie after Warren grabs the Occupy Wall Street people and Gabbard gets the Tankies.
    Gabbard is a non starter IMO, but as everyone apart from @HYFUD knows, both Sanders and Biden are too old to run.
    Maybe this is all @HYFUD but *somebody* didn't get the memo:
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.128161111
  • kle4 said:


    How things are selected for discussion is something of consequence . If the will of the commons to pass something were all that mattered the speaker need not have the power to reject anything. And you seem to have missed the Mr Herdson doesn't seem to mind the actual amendment here. Yes a lot of Tories deeply dislike the speaker. But others are using that as an excuse to pretend that is all it could possibly be. It's also a bit of a side issue to whether speakers should have main party challenger, a view many hold well before this incident.

    An underrated factor in politics is personal liking and dislikes. Bercow has a Marmite effect - lots of people (including me) really like him and find him a wonderful change from e.g. Betty Boothroyd, whose public popularity contrasts with what many of us thought was real favouritism for long-standing MPs over newcomers. And he's genuinely witty, which Speakers usually are not. Equally, many people find him really annoying. But I think he'd be gone if it wasn't for the large chunk of MPs who are fond of him, irrespective of whether he's being helpful.
    He should have gone over the bullying fiasco.

    He is simply unfit for office and is being kept in place by political bias
    Whatever the merits or otherwise of Bercow in general, last week he did the British people a massive service by allowing an amendment that will at least attempt to stop May wasting another week or two before deciding what to do next.

    The can cannot be kicked any more.

    It is time for Parliament to make a decision and implement it. Or hold a GE.
    I do not disagree with you.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,505
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    O/T I see the Liberals and Centre Party in Sweden have broken with their Conservative allies to back the Social Democrats. I doubt if that will end well for them.

    I don't know why the Swedish Democrats simply aren't brought into Government, as they have been in Denmark and Austria, rather than making continual political martyrs of them.
    I know next to nothing about the politics of Sweden, but perhaps the political culture there precludes this in a way that that in Austria does not? The Moderates and their allies may be too afraid of taint by association.

    Imagine what would happen if, in a future UK Parliament, a Conservative Government was reliant on a bloc of 20 MPs from a widely disliked party further to the Right of it. The various 'progressives' would have a field day.

    The CDU/CSU in Germany could ditch the Grand Coalition, if they assembled an alternative alliance with the FDP and AfD. But neither the conservatives nor liberals contemplated doing a deal with the far Right there, either.
    The Moderates and Christian Democrats would strike a deal with the Swedish Democrats. The Liberals and Centre are utterly opposed.

    I wouldn't be surprised if the three right wing parties had a majority next time.
    It's a good point. At the moment, Swedish voters aren't voting for the Swedish Democrats in sufficient numbers to break the back of that model.

    If the SDs qualified their policies a little more, with fair as well as firm language, then got up to 23-24% support in the next election, then I could see that happening.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    Yorkcity said:

    VI Polling all over the place again.

    Survation Lab 41 Con 38 from last GE most accurate pollster.

    You Gov has to be an outlier surely Every YG poll is way adrift of all other pollsters.

    WTF are they polling Tory Branch meetings.

    Have to say after my first bit of canvassing in ages Lab are in a much better position than at start of GE 2017 campaign and probably better than GE 2017 outcome.

    Certainly a good poll for Labour.
    One can see why they would like a GE on those figures.
    Yes, as it does seem to be Labour voting Leave voters that have changed to Remain, while the wealthy county set cultural conservative Leave vote remains intact.

  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Mr. Tokyo, the electorate voted for:
    a party promising a referendum to have a majority
    MPs who backed a referendum
    to Leave in said referendum
    MPs then backed the result of the referendum
    two main parties in another election, both of whom backed leaving the EU

    The idea there's going to be anything other than a severely disgruntled, and understandably disgruntled, electorate if we end up remaining (especially without another referendum) is optimistic beyond the bounds of reason.

    Over 50% of voters at the last election backed parties that ruled out a No Deal Brexit. All opinion polls show that voters are opposed to a No Deal Brexit. The will of the people is not to leave the EU on a No Deal basis. Mrs May's deal is not the only way to prevent a No Deal. It is the only way to prevent one based on the prejudices that Mrs May has.

    True , however there is only Mays deal or no deal currently on the cards.
    Therefore without another deal MPs should vote for it imo.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    Re Tulsi Gabbard. Surely a Hindu is a non-starter? Not that I'm saying it should be, but it is, isn't it?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,501
    Foxy said:

    Probably already posted but:

    Tulsi Gabbard: Democrat says she will run for president in 2020

    Not much oxygen left for Bernie after Warren grabs the Occupy Wall Street people and Gabbard gets the Tankies.
    Gabbard is a non starter IMO, but as everyone apart from @HYFUD knows, both Sanders and Biden are too old to run.
    Gabbard: VPOTUS?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Edmund,

    The rules change depending on the whim of Parliament, it seems. You might be sanguine about that, but those pesky voters used to believe they were the final arbiter.

    The voters are the final arbiter, they can change the MPs.
    They did, in 2017, for a vast majority who stood on a platform of leaving the EU.
    But didn't personally believe in it.
    If they didn’t personally believe in it, they shouldn’t have stood under that manifesto. They are now ignoring the wishes of those who elected them.
    You make the false assumption that they voted the way they did purely on Brexit policy. May called a Brexit election, but that was not what happend, Labour went on social care and generational inequality.

    In any case political manifestos have never been binding. We elect representatives, not place men and women.
    It's all about balance. Yes, we elect representatives not robotic delegates, and yes changes of direction between one election and the next are sometimes warranted.

    On the other hand, breaking manifesto commitments (especially on pivotal issues) isn't necessarily without consequence. If you stand on one platform and then switch to another, then why should voters believe that you will deliver for them next time you ask for their support?
    Exactly. And again I repeat that all those channelling Burke and his original quotes about MPs being representatives not delegates should remember that when he put that into practice and voted against the wishes of his constituents the people of Bristol took the opportunity to dump him at the next election.
    All the evidence is that the swing to Remain is bigger in Labour onstituencies that voted Leave. Their MPs merely have better political antennae for their constituencies than you.

    http://theconversation.com/brexit-yes-constituencies-have-moved-to-remain-and-heres-why-that-could-matter-101761
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,773

    Probably already posted but:

    Tulsi Gabbard: Democrat says she will run for president in 2020

    Oh. Iraq vet. Trump would have problems with Gabbard. I suppose he could say she was a coward as she came home alive.
    Maybe Putin will make him go easy on her, she seems to be his Plan B...
    Eh?
    There's a helpful summary on - um - Russia Today:
    https://www.rt.com/usa/448632-tulsi-gabbard-negative-reactions/
    Thanks.

    Here's the NYT take:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/11/us/politics/tulsi-gabbard-2020-president-announcement.html

    She endorsed Bernie. So if he runs as well, could get interesting.
  • Yorkcity said:

    Mr. Tokyo, the electorate voted for:
    a party promising a referendum to have a majority
    MPs who backed a referendum
    to Leave in said referendum
    MPs then backed the result of the referendum
    two main parties in another election, both of whom backed leaving the EU

    The idea there's going to be anything other than a severely disgruntled, and understandably disgruntled, electorate if we end up remaining (especially without another referendum) is optimistic beyond the bounds of reason.

    Over 50% of voters at the last election backed parties that ruled out a No Deal Brexit. All opinion polls show that voters are opposed to a No Deal Brexit. The will of the people is not to leave the EU on a No Deal basis. Mrs May's deal is not the only way to prevent a No Deal. It is the only way to prevent one based on the prejudices that Mrs May has.

    True , however there is only Mays deal or no deal currently on the cards.
    Therefore without another deal MPs should vote for it imo.

    That's why we need to start again. However, I think we will leave without a deal.

  • Yorkcity said:

    kle4 said:


    How things are selected for discussion is something of consequence . If the will of the commons to pass something were all that mattered the speaker need not have the power to reject anything. And you seem to have missed the Mr Herdson doesn't seem to mind the actual amendment here. Yes a lot of Tories deeply dislike the speaker. But others are using that as an excuse to pretend that is all it could possibly be. It's also a bit of a side issue to whether speakers should have main party challenger, a view many hold well before this incident.

    An underrated factor in politics is personal liking and dislikes. Bercow has a Marmite effect - lots of people (including me) really like him and find him a wonderful change from e.g. Betty Boothroyd, whose public popularity contrasts with what many of us thought was real favouritism for long-standing MPs over newcomers. And he's genuinely witty, which Speakers usually are not. Equally, many people find him really annoying. But I think he'd be gone if it wasn't for the large chunk of MPs who are fond of him, irrespective of whether he's being helpful.
    He should have gone over the bullying fiasco.

    He is simply unfit for office and is being kept in place by political bias
    Why can't the Conservative Party and their DUP friends vote him out then ?
    It really is at the heart of the whole problem. The HOC is heavily remain and as such Bercow is seen as an ally in the cause. The anger against him came largely from ERG who are in a minority (thankfully) and they do not have the numbers to defeat Bercow

    My objection to him is that he is pompous and has not addressed the bullying in the HOC or his alleged involvement in it. Furthermore, his decision last week was against his clerks and as he admits has now set a new precedent which could cause problems for not only this government, but also future governments, on how they timetable their business
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,388

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Edmund,

    The rules change depending on the whim of Parliament, it seems. You might be sanguine about that, but those pesky voters used to believe they were the final arbiter.

    The voters are the final arbiter, they can change the MPs.
    They did, in 2017, for a vast majority who stood on a platform of leaving the EU.
    But didn't personally believe in it.
    If they didn’t personally believe in it, they shouldn’t have stood under that manifesto. They are now ignoring the wishes of those who elected them.
    You make the false assumption that they voted the way they did purely on Brexit policy. May called a Brexit election, but that was not what happend, Labour went on social care and generational inequality.

    In any case political manifestos have never been binding. We elect representatives, not place men and women.
    It's all about balance. Yes, we elect representatives not robotic delegates, and yes changes of direction between one election and the next are sometimes warranted.

    On the other hand, breaking manifesto commitments (especially on pivotal issues) isn't necessarily without consequence. If you stand on one platform and then switch to another, then why should voters believe that you will deliver for them next time you ask for their support?
    Exactly. And again I repeat that all those channelling Burke and his original quotes about MPs being representatives not delegates should remember that when he put that into practice and voted against the wishes of his constituents the people of Bristol took the opportunity to dump him at the next election.
    And Burke made his argument when parties hardly existed, manifestos were not produced, and the franchise was limited.

    Politicians may be forced to break promises by circumstances. It doesn't mean they should break promises because they think they can get away with it.
  • Yorkcity said:

    VI Polling all over the place again.

    Survation Lab 41 Con 38 from last GE most accurate pollster.

    You Gov has to be an outlier surely Every YG poll is way adrift of all other pollsters.

    WTF are they polling Tory Branch meetings.

    Have to say after my first bit of canvassing in ages Lab are in a much better position than at start of GE 2017 campaign and probably better than GE 2017 outcome.

    Certainly a good poll for Labour.
    One can see why they would like a GE on those figures.

    Given the state of play in Scotland, the actual election result would almost certainly deliver another hung parliament on those figures - quite possibly with the Tories having most seats.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742

    Yorkcity said:

    Mr. Tokyo, the electorate voted for:
    a party promising a referendum to have a majority
    MPs who backed a referendum
    to Leave in said referendum
    MPs then backed the result of the referendum
    two main parties in another election, both of whom backed leaving the EU

    The idea there's going to be anything other than a severely disgruntled, and understandably disgruntled, electorate if we end up remaining (especially without another referendum) is optimistic beyond the bounds of reason.

    Over 50% of voters at the last election backed parties that ruled out a No Deal Brexit. All opinion polls show that voters are opposed to a No Deal Brexit. The will of the people is not to leave the EU on a No Deal basis. Mrs May's deal is not the only way to prevent a No Deal. It is the only way to prevent one based on the prejudices that Mrs May has.

    True , however there is only Mays deal or no deal currently on the cards.
    Therefore without another deal MPs should vote for it imo.

    That's why we need to start again. However, I think we will leave without a deal.

    I have long thought that likely, though No Deal is going to be Brexit with a whimper rather than a bang.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631

    Good morning, everyone.

    Help!

    Grayling has agreed with me:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46847169

    Is there some sort of counselling hotline available?

    And I've just found myself agreeing with Lord Adonis

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1083997763304603648

    Perhaps we can form a support group?
    On the Justice Select Commitee we did a report on the cost-effectiveness of different kinds of incarceration internationally - probably the best thing I helped do in 13 years - and I recall that one part of the evidence was that sentence under 6 months are actually counter-productive, because:

    a) They bring casual criminals into contact with serious criminals, who offer you seemingly attractive serious criminal options when released
    b) They are just long enough to make you lose your job, which shatters your chance of getting back on the straight and narrow
    c) They don't give time for serious rehab work and prisons therefore just don't bother with you - you'll be out in 3 months, so they just feed you and hope you won't be a nuisance.

    Much better to give serious criminals longer sentences with good rehab work, and minor criminals intensive supervision and conselling.
    +1
    Short prison sentences are a silly idea, for all the mentioned reasons and more. Much better to use community - based penalties for anyone who isn’t violent and doesn’t provide a threat to the public.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742

    Yorkcity said:

    VI Polling all over the place again.

    Survation Lab 41 Con 38 from last GE most accurate pollster.

    You Gov has to be an outlier surely Every YG poll is way adrift of all other pollsters.

    WTF are they polling Tory Branch meetings.

    Have to say after my first bit of canvassing in ages Lab are in a much better position than at start of GE 2017 campaign and probably better than GE 2017 outcome.

    Certainly a good poll for Labour.
    One can see why they would like a GE on those figures.

    Given the state of play in Scotland, the actual election result would almost certainly deliver another hung parliament on those figures - quite possibly with the Tories having most seats.

    Lab largest party on 299, Con 267 SNP 40 and LD 19 when I put the figures in Electoral Calculus.

    Though I would expect that a forced GE would damage Con prospects further.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,501
    Foxy said:

    Yorkcity said:

    VI Polling all over the place again.

    Survation Lab 41 Con 38 from last GE most accurate pollster.

    You Gov has to be an outlier surely Every YG poll is way adrift of all other pollsters.

    WTF are they polling Tory Branch meetings.

    Have to say after my first bit of canvassing in ages Lab are in a much better position than at start of GE 2017 campaign and probably better than GE 2017 outcome.

    Certainly a good poll for Labour.
    One can see why they would like a GE on those figures.
    Yes, as it does seem to be Labour voting Leave voters that have changed to Remain, while the wealthy county set cultural conservative Leave vote remains intact.

    Interesting article in today's Guardian magazine about the people who are attending Farage's rallies. Seem like Tory voters to me, not the sort of roughs who 'attacked' Soubry.

    A lot of people are going to be very, very unhappy if the March 29th deadline isn't met..... and I can't see how it can be...... and if the can's kicked down the road for, say, six months they're going to be even unhappier. However, perversely, if there's a GE and a Remain, or Remain-ish Parliament is elected, I got the feeling that they'd accept it.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    Foxy said:

    Probably already posted but:

    Tulsi Gabbard: Democrat says she will run for president in 2020

    Not much oxygen left for Bernie after Warren grabs the Occupy Wall Street people and Gabbard gets the Tankies.
    Gabbard is a non starter IMO, but as everyone apart from @HYFUD knows, both Sanders and Biden are too old to run.
    Gabbard: VPOTUS?
    No way, the VP candidate's first job is to do no harm.

    Unless Trump picked her...
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,501
    Foxy said:

    Yorkcity said:

    VI Polling all over the place again.

    Survation Lab 41 Con 38 from last GE most accurate pollster.

    You Gov has to be an outlier surely Every YG poll is way adrift of all other pollsters.

    WTF are they polling Tory Branch meetings.

    Have to say after my first bit of canvassing in ages Lab are in a much better position than at start of GE 2017 campaign and probably better than GE 2017 outcome.

    Certainly a good poll for Labour.
    One can see why they would like a GE on those figures.

    Given the state of play in Scotland, the actual election result would almost certainly deliver another hung parliament on those figures - quite possibly with the Tories having most seats.

    Lab largest party on 299, Con 267 SNP 40 and LD 19 when I put the figures in Electoral Calculus.

    Though I would expect that a forced GE would damage Con prospects further.
    Lab Govt with C&S from SNP and/or LD's? Van't see the LD's getting in to a Coalition again for a while.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    Sandpit said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Help!

    Grayling has agreed with me:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46847169

    Is there some sort of counselling hotline available?

    And I've just found myself agreeing with Lord Adonis

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1083997763304603648

    Perhaps we can form a support group?
    On the Justice Select Commitee we did a report on the cost-effectiveness of different kinds of incarceration internationally - probably the best thing I helped do in 13 years - and I recall that one part of the evidence was that sentence under 6 months are actually counter-productive, because:

    a) They bring casual criminals into contact with serious criminals, who offer you seemingly attractive serious criminal options when released
    b) They are just long enough to make you lose your job, which shatters your chance of getting back on the straight and narrow
    c) They don't give time for serious rehab work and prisons therefore just don't bother with you - you'll be out in 3 months, so they just feed you and hope you won't be a nuisance.

    Much better to give serious criminals longer sentences with good rehab work, and minor criminals intensive supervision and conselling.
    +1
    Short prison sentences are a silly idea, for all the mentioned reasons and more. Much better to use community - based penalties for anyone who isn’t violent and doesn’t provide a threat to the public.
    I agree, but Community sentances need to be properly supervised by a well funded and run probation service.

    There is also the small matter that many short sentences are for repeat offenders on whom community sentencrs have previously failed. It is not comparing like with like.

    Additionally, it may just mean that courts give 12 month sentences instead of 6!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,157
    edited January 2019
    Foxy said:

    Yorkcity said:

    VI Polling all over the place again.

    Survation Lab 41 Con 38 from last GE most accurate pollster.

    You Gov has to be an outlier surely Every YG poll is way adrift of all other pollsters.

    WTF are they polling Tory Branch meetings.

    Have to say after my first bit of canvassing in ages Lab are in a much better position than at start of GE 2017 campaign and probably better than GE 2017 outcome.

    Certainly a good poll for Labour.
    One can see why they would like a GE on those figures.

    Given the state of play in Scotland, the actual election result would almost certainly deliver another hung parliament on those figures - quite possibly with the Tories having most seats.

    Lab largest party on 299, Con 267 SNP 40 and LD 19 when I put the figures in Electoral Calculus.

    Though I would expect that a forced GE would damage Con prospects further.
    Your last sentence is entirely predictable

    For balance what does electoral calculus say on last you gov poll of

    Con 40% Lab 34% Lib 10% UKIP 4%

    We can all sight polls to our cause but if we are honest none of us can possibly know the result of the next election
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    Foxy said:

    Yorkcity said:

    VI Polling all over the place again.

    Survation Lab 41 Con 38 from last GE most accurate pollster.

    You Gov has to be an outlier surely Every YG poll is way adrift of all other pollsters.

    WTF are they polling Tory Branch meetings.

    Have to say after my first bit of canvassing in ages Lab are in a much better position than at start of GE 2017 campaign and probably better than GE 2017 outcome.

    Certainly a good poll for Labour.
    One can see why they would like a GE on those figures.
    Yes, as it does seem to be Labour voting Leave voters that have changed to Remain, while the wealthy county set cultural conservative Leave vote remains intact.

    Interesting article in today's Guardian magazine about the people who are attending Farage's rallies. Seem like Tory voters to me, not the sort of roughs who 'attacked' Soubry.

    A lot of people are going to be very, very unhappy if the March 29th deadline isn't met..... and I can't see how it can be...... and if the can's kicked down the road for, say, six months they're going to be even unhappier. However, perversely, if there's a GE and a Remain, or Remain-ish Parliament is elected, I got the feeling that they'd accept it.
    There already is a Remain-ish parliament. That's the problem!
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    dixiedean said:

    Re Tulsi Gabbard. Surely a Hindu is a non-starter? Not that I'm saying it should be, but it is, isn't it?

    Not necessarily, the right person could probably pull it off. But for the Dems to run a Hindu Tankie with a history of homophobia would be putting a lot of weight on the audacity of hope...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    Anazina said:

    A rare poor piece by David, who is usually spot on.

    Why is Johnboy Bercow so special? This failing government has visited several constitutional faux pas on the country, yet apparently that’s okay!

    So you’re a supporter of people being allowed to sexually harass their staff with impunity?
  • Foxy said:

    Yorkcity said:

    VI Polling all over the place again.

    Survation Lab 41 Con 38 from last GE most accurate pollster.

    You Gov has to be an outlier surely Every YG poll is way adrift of all other pollsters.

    WTF are they polling Tory Branch meetings.

    Have to say after my first bit of canvassing in ages Lab are in a much better position than at start of GE 2017 campaign and probably better than GE 2017 outcome.

    Certainly a good poll for Labour.
    One can see why they would like a GE on those figures.

    Given the state of play in Scotland, the actual election result would almost certainly deliver another hung parliament on those figures - quite possibly with the Tories having most seats.

    Lab largest party on 299, Con 267 SNP 40 and LD 19 when I put the figures in Electoral Calculus.

    Though I would expect that a forced GE would damage Con prospects further.

    I would take that, to be honest. But I suspect Labour will do worse in reality as it looks set to lose seats in Scotland.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,501
    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    Yorkcity said:

    VI Polling all over the place again.

    Survation Lab 41 Con 38 from last GE most accurate pollster.

    You Gov has to be an outlier surely Every YG poll is way adrift of all other pollsters.

    WTF are they polling Tory Branch meetings.

    Have to say after my first bit of canvassing in ages Lab are in a much better position than at start of GE 2017 campaign and probably better than GE 2017 outcome.

    Certainly a good poll for Labour.
    One can see why they would like a GE on those figures.
    Yes, as it does seem to be Labour voting Leave voters that have changed to Remain, while the wealthy county set cultural conservative Leave vote remains intact.

    Interesting article in today's Guardian magazine about the people who are attending Farage's rallies. Seem like Tory voters to me, not the sort of roughs who 'attacked' Soubry.

    A lot of people are going to be very, very unhappy if the March 29th deadline isn't met..... and I can't see how it can be...... and if the can's kicked down the road for, say, six months they're going to be even unhappier. However, perversely, if there's a GE and a Remain, or Remain-ish Parliament is elected, I got the feeling that they'd accept it.
    There already is a Remain-ish parliament. That's the problem!
    For the avoidance of doubt I mean that if a new Parliament has a 'significant proportion' of MP's who were elected on a Remain, or Remain-ish manifesto.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626

    The HOC is heavily remain and as such Bercow is seen as an ally in the cause.

    By their friends shall you know them.....
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742

    Foxy said:

    Yorkcity said:

    VI Polling all over the place again.

    Survation Lab 41 Con 38 from last GE most accurate pollster.

    You Gov has to be an outlier surely Every YG poll is way adrift of all other pollsters.

    WTF are they polling Tory Branch meetings.

    Have to say after my first bit of canvassing in ages Lab are in a much better position than at start of GE 2017 campaign and probably better than GE 2017 outcome.

    Certainly a good poll for Labour.
    One can see why they would like a GE on those figures.

    Given the state of play in Scotland, the actual election result would almost certainly deliver another hung parliament on those figures - quite possibly with the Tories having most seats.

    Lab largest party on 299, Con 267 SNP 40 and LD 19 when I put the figures in Electoral Calculus.

    Though I would expect that a forced GE would damage Con prospects further.
    Your last sentence is entirely predictable

    For balance what does electoral calculus say on last you gov poll of

    Con 40% Lab 34% Lib 10% UKIP 4%

    We can all sight polls to our cause but if we are honest none of us can possibly know the result of the next election
    Con 329 Lab 236, SNP 45, LD 18

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&tvcontrol=Y&CON=40&LAB=34&LIB=10&UKIP=4&Green=4&NewLAB=&TVCON=25&TVLAB=25&TVLIB=25&TVUKIP=25&TVGreen=25&SCOTCON=25&SCOTLAB=21&SCOTLIB=8&SCOTUKIP=1&SCOTGreen=2&SCOTNAT=40&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017

    Go ahead and lets see.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    dixiedean said:

    Re Tulsi Gabbard. Surely a Hindu is a non-starter? Not that I'm saying it should be, but it is, isn't it?

    Not necessarily, the right person could probably pull it off. But for the Dems to run a Hindu Tankie with a history of homophobia would be putting a lot of weight on the audacity of hope...
    Sadly, it is probably the Himdu bit that would do her most damage. It would be almost as bad as an atheist in the supposedly secular Republic.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    edited January 2019

    Cyclefree said:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/world/canada-comes-to-rescue-of-sauditeenager-who-fled-death-threats-002d6gg3j

    Well, good luck to the girl.

    Still, why the rush to help an attractive teenager with her pleas for help on Twitter and the embarrassed shuffling of feet and total lack of action when it comes to Asia Bibi, at rather more risk than this teenager and from exactly the same psychotic death cult adherents?

    You've answered your own question. Asia Bibi isn't a pretty young girl and neither is she an anti-social media starlet.

    (These shouldn't be the governing factors as to who lives and who dies, of course, but that's the world. Ain't it grand?)
    Actually the pictures of Asia Bibi do show her to be very pretty. But I take your point.

    The Asia Bibi case just shows up the utter lack of principle and vacuousness of most human rights campaigners. Very willing to emote over cute teenagers and children or those rich enough to pay people traffickers. Completely unwilling to stand up for an innocent women, unjustly imprisoned and threatened by the actions of her own government and terrorists.

    And it shows the moral cowardice (vicar’s daughter, indeed!) of Mrs May who, reportedly overruled Sajid Javid and Jeremy Hunt who both wanted to give Mrs Bibi refuge here. One of the junior Ministers who resigned before Xmas also resigned over this issue.

    As someone once said people like Asia Bibi are too dark-skinned for the right and too Christian for the left.

    I set up a petition to help her along with others. Fat good it will do. Perhaps she’d be better off paying people traffickers to smuggle her into Europe.
  • RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    Yorkcity said:

    VI Polling all over the place again.

    Survation Lab 41 Con 38 from last GE most accurate pollster.

    You Gov has to be an outlier surely Every YG poll is way adrift of all other pollsters.

    WTF are they polling Tory Branch meetings.

    Have to say after my first bit of canvassing in ages Lab are in a much better position than at start of GE 2017 campaign and probably better than GE 2017 outcome.

    Certainly a good poll for Labour.
    One can see why they would like a GE on those figures.
    Yes, as it does seem to be Labour voting Leave voters that have changed to Remain, while the wealthy county set cultural conservative Leave vote remains intact.

    Interesting article in today's Guardian magazine about the people who are attending Farage's rallies. Seem like Tory voters to me, not the sort of roughs who 'attacked' Soubry.

    A lot of people are going to be very, very unhappy if the March 29th deadline isn't met..... and I can't see how it can be...... and if the can's kicked down the road for, say, six months they're going to be even unhappier. However, perversely, if there's a GE and a Remain, or Remain-ish Parliament is elected, I got the feeling that they'd accept it.
    There already is a Remain-ish parliament. That's the problem!
    For the avoidance of doubt I mean that if a new Parliament has a 'significant proportion' of MP's who were elected on a Remain, or Remain-ish manifesto.
    And there lies the problem. How does labour state it's position on the EU and indeed, to be fair, the same would apply to the conservatives
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537

    Sean_F said:

    O/T I see the Liberals and Centre Party in Sweden have broken with their Conservative allies to back the Social Democrats. I doubt if that will end well for them.

    I don't know why the Swedish Democrats simply aren't brought into Government, as they have been in Denmark and Austria, rather than making continual political martyrs of them.
    I know next to nothing about the politics of Sweden, but perhaps the political culture there precludes this in a way that that in Austria does not? The Moderates and their allies may be too afraid of taint by association.

    Imagine what would happen if, in a future UK Parliament, a Conservative Government was reliant on a bloc of 20 MPs from a widely disliked party further to the Right of it. The various 'progressives' would have a field day.

    The CDU/CSU in Germany could ditch the Grand Coalition, if they assembled an alternative alliance with the FDP and AfD. But neither the conservatives nor liberals contemplated doing a deal with the far Right there, either.
    One can argue that the DUP is a far-right party, but I think most people in GB see them as odd more than extreme (and on economic policy they are pretty centrist). Image is crucial here - the fact that the Sweden Democrats were launched by a neo-Nazi is very hard to live down, whereas their Danish counterpart was launched by a completely unclassifiable eccentric low-tax anti-immigrant pacifist (his proposal for defence spending was a loudspeaker on a beach saying in Russian "We surrender!"). Similarly, the Front National has struggled to get past Le Pen (father) equivocating on gas chambers.

    Farage spotted that UKIP had to eject anyone with a BNP past. I think that people get used to extreme right-wing parties so long as they don't tolerate any flirtation with Nazism.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    edited January 2019

    Foxy said:

    Yorkcity said:

    VI Polling all over the place again.

    Survation Lab 41 Con 38 from last GE most accurate pollster.

    You Gov has to be an outlier surely Every YG poll is way adrift of all other pollsters.

    WTF are they polling Tory Branch meetings.

    Have to say after my first bit of canvassing in ages Lab are in a much better position than at start of GE 2017 campaign and probably better than GE 2017 outcome.

    Certainly a good poll for Labour.
    One can see why they would like a GE on those figures.

    Given the state of play in Scotland, the actual election result would almost certainly deliver another hung parliament on those figures - quite possibly with the Tories having most seats.

    Lab largest party on 299, Con 267 SNP 40 and LD 19 when I put the figures in Electoral Calculus.

    Though I would expect that a forced GE would damage Con prospects further.

    I would take that, to be honest. But I suspect Labour will do worse in reality as it looks set to lose seats in Scotland.

    Lab lose 5 seats in Scotland on that prediction, the gains are in England and Wales.

    Far and away the most likely outcome is another hung parliament, and a GE would be muddled by other issues. A #peoplesvote is the only way ahead to a definitive answer.

    I am not averse to a No Deal Brexit induced collapse of the May government, though those in less secure employment might get a bit sweaty over the thought.
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Yorkcity said:

    VI Polling all over the place again.

    Survation Lab 41 Con 38 from last GE most accurate pollster.

    You Gov has to be an outlier surely Every YG poll is way adrift of all other pollsters.

    WTF are they polling Tory Branch meetings.

    Have to say after my first bit of canvassing in ages Lab are in a much better position than at start of GE 2017 campaign and probably better than GE 2017 outcome.

    Certainly a good poll for Labour.
    One can see why they would like a GE on those figures.

    Given the state of play in Scotland, the actual election result would almost certainly deliver another hung parliament on those figures - quite possibly with the Tories having most seats.

    Lab largest party on 299, Con 267 SNP 40 and LD 19 when I put the figures in Electoral Calculus.

    Though I would expect that a forced GE would damage Con prospects further.
    Your last sentence is entirely predictable

    For balance what does electoral calculus say on last you gov poll of

    Con 40% Lab 34% Lib 10% UKIP 4%

    We can all sight polls to our cause but if we are honest none of us can possibly know the result of the next election
    Con 329 Lab 236, SNP 45, LD 18

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&tvcontrol=Y&CON=40&LAB=34&LIB=10&UKIP=4&Green=4&NewLAB=&TVCON=25&TVLAB=25&TVLIB=25&TVUKIP=25&TVGreen=25&SCOTCON=25&SCOTLAB=21&SCOTLIB=8&SCOTUKIP=1&SCOTGreen=2&SCOTNAT=40&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017

    Go ahead and lets see.
    I think we can both agree that the next GE is entirely unpredictable, no matter the numbers in the polls
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Sandpit said:

    Anazina said:

    A rare poor piece by David, who is usually spot on.

    Why is Johnboy Bercow so special? This failing government has visited several constitutional faux pas on the country, yet apparently that’s okay!

    So you’re a supporter of people being allowed to sexually harass their staff with impunity?
    That’s why the Tories won’t do what David suggests. The time to act was after he didn’t resign over that stuff.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,501

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    Yorkcity said:

    VI Polling all over the place again.

    Survation Lab 41 Con 38 from last GE most accurate pollster.

    You Gov has to be an outlier surely Every YG poll is way adrift of all other pollsters.

    WTF are they polling Tory Branch meetings.

    Have to say after my first bit of canvassing in ages Lab are in a much better position than at start of GE 2017 campaign and probably better than GE 2017 outcome.

    Certainly a good poll for Labour.
    One can see why they would like a GE on those figures.
    Yes, as it does seem to be Labour voting Leave voters that have changed to Remain, while the wealthy county set cultural conservative Leave vote remains intact.

    Interesting article in today's Guardian magazine about the people who are attending Farage's rallies. Seem like Tory voters to me, not the sort of roughs who 'attacked' Soubry.

    A lot of people are going to be very, very unhappy if the March 29th deadline isn't met..... and I can't see how it can be...... and if the can's kicked down the road for, say, six months they're going to be even unhappier. However, perversely, if there's a GE and a Remain, or Remain-ish Parliament is elected, I got the feeling that they'd accept it.
    There already is a Remain-ish parliament. That's the problem!
    For the avoidance of doubt I mean that if a new Parliament has a 'significant proportion' of MP's who were elected on a Remain, or Remain-ish manifesto.
    And there lies the problem. How does labour state it's position on the EU and indeed, to be fair, the same would apply to the conservatives
    Indeed. Drawing up the manifestoes would be a problem for both parties. 'My' local MP, although she seems to have gone to ground on the issue lately, seems to want a Hard Brexit and is, I believe, prepared to vote against her leaders Deal.
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Yorkcity said:

    VI Polling all over the place again.

    Survation Lab 41 Con 38 from last GE most accurate pollster.

    You Gov has to be an outlier surely Every YG poll is way adrift of all other pollsters.

    WTF are they polling Tory Branch meetings.

    Have to say after my first bit of canvassing in ages Lab are in a much better position than at start of GE 2017 campaign and probably better than GE 2017 outcome.

    Certainly a good poll for Labour.
    One can see why they would like a GE on those figures.

    Given the state of play in Scotland, the actual election result would almost certainly deliver another hung parliament on those figures - quite possibly with the Tories having most seats.

    Lab largest party on 299, Con 267 SNP 40 and LD 19 when I put the figures in Electoral Calculus.

    Though I would expect that a forced GE would damage Con prospects further.

    I would take that, to be honest. But I suspect Labour will do worse in reality as it looks set to lose seats in Scotland.

    Lab lose 5 seats in Scotland on that prediction, the gains are in England and Wales.

    Cool. A hung Parliament in which the Tories are not in power and Jeremy Corbyn is severely restrained would be the ideal outcome of the next GE. The issue, then, is how long such a parliament could last given that Corbyn personally would command very little support among MPs. I wonder if that would be the time for a genuine Parliamentary coup!

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,388

    Sean_F said:

    O/T I see the Liberals and Centre Party in Sweden have broken with their Conservative allies to back the Social Democrats. I doubt if that will end well for them.

    I don't know why the Swedish Democrats simply aren't brought into Government, as they have been in Denmark and Austria, rather than making continual political martyrs of them.
    I know next to nothing about the politics of Sweden, but perhaps the political culture there precludes this in a way that that in Austria does not? The Moderates and their allies may be too afraid of taint by association.

    Imagine what would happen if, in a future UK Parliament, a Conservative Government was reliant on a bloc of 20 MPs from a widely disliked party further to the Right of it. The various 'progressives' would have a field day.

    The CDU/CSU in Germany could ditch the Grand Coalition, if they assembled an alternative alliance with the FDP and AfD. But neither the conservatives nor liberals contemplated doing a deal with the far Right there, either.
    One can argue that the DUP is a far-right party, but I think most people in GB see them as odd more than extreme (and on economic policy they are pretty centrist). Image is crucial here - the fact that the Sweden Democrats were launched by a neo-Nazi is very hard to live down, whereas their Danish counterpart was launched by a completely unclassifiable eccentric low-tax anti-immigrant pacifist (his proposal for defence spending was a loudspeaker on a beach saying in Russian "We surrender!"). Similarly, the Front National has struggled to get past Le Pen (father) equivocating on gas chambers.

    Farage spotted that UKIP had to eject anyone with a BNP past. I think that people get used to extreme right-wing parties so long as they don't tolerate any flirtation with Nazism.
    The fact that the Austrian Freedom party became dominated by former Nazis probably enhances its appeal
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    edited January 2019

    kle4 said:


    How things are selected for discussion is something of consequence . If the will of the commons to pass something were all that mattered the speaker need not have the power to reject anything. And you seem to have missed the Mr Herdson doesn't seem to mind the actual amendment here. Yes a lot of Tories deeply dislike the speaker. But others are using that as an excuse to pretend that is all it could possibly be. It's also a bit of a side issue to whether speakers should have main party challenger, a view many hold well before this incident.

    An underrated factor in politics is personal liking and dislikes. Bercow has a Marmite effect - lots of people (including me) really like him and find him a wonderful change from e.g. Betty Boothroyd, whose public popularity contrasts with what many of us thought was real favouritism for long-standing MPs over newcomers. And he's genuinely witty, which Speakers usually are not. Equally, many people find him really annoying. But I think he'd be gone if it wasn't for the large chunk of MPs who are fond of him, irrespective of whether he's being helpful.
    He should have gone over the bullying fiasco.

    He is simply unfit for office and is being kept in place by political bias
    You are a loyalist Big_G I expect you to say no less.... but if he upholds Parliament's rights the he gets my vote.
    Not really.

    He broke convention and thereby created a new precedent that even he accepts he needs to give consideration to

    He is pompous and his alleged bullying of staff and others demeans his office

    Indeed Betty Boothroyd was outspoken in her criticsm of him

    As an aside, I am content at Dominic Grieve's success in his amendment.
    Bercow may well be all these things. But I am puzzled by the enmity he attracts. I met and talked with him at an awards ceremony focused on women. He was not speaking and did not make himself the centre of attention but was very charming, thoughtful and spent time talking with people, me included, in a way which suggested genuine interest rather than simply focusing on the most important people in the room. And my other half has worked with him on various legal cases and has been impressed. And he is not someone who is easily impressed by anyone, let alone MPs.

    So I think there is more to him than the caricature that is often presented. That said, he has not responded well to the Cox report.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,501
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    O/T I see the Liberals and Centre Party in Sweden have broken with their Conservative allies to back the Social Democrats. I doubt if that will end well for them.

    I don't know why the Swedish Democrats simply aren't brought into Government, as they have been in Denmark and Austria, rather than making continual political martyrs of them.
    I know next to nothing about the politics of Sweden, but perhaps the political culture there precludes this in a way that that in Austria does not? The Moderates and their allies may be too afraid of taint by association.

    Imagine what would happen if, in a future UK Parliament, a Conservative Government was reliant on a bloc of 20 MPs from a widely disliked party further to the Right of it. The various 'progressives' would have a field day.

    The CDU/CSU in Germany could ditch the Grand Coalition, if they assembled an alternative alliance with the FDP and AfD. But neither the conservatives nor liberals contemplated doing a deal with the far Right there, either.
    One can argue that the DUP is a far-right party, but I think most people in GB see them as odd more than extreme (and on economic policy they are pretty centrist). Image is crucial here - the fact that the Sweden Democrats were launched by a neo-Nazi is very hard to live down, whereas their Danish counterpart was launched by a completely unclassifiable eccentric low-tax anti-immigrant pacifist (his proposal for defence spending was a loudspeaker on a beach saying in Russian "We surrender!"). Similarly, the Front National has struggled to get past Le Pen (father) equivocating on gas chambers.

    Farage spotted that UKIP had to eject anyone with a BNP past. I think that people get used to extreme right-wing parties so long as they don't tolerate any flirtation with Nazism.
    The fact that the Austrian Freedom party became dominated by former Nazis probably enhances its appeal
    Isn't there something about the genius of the Austrians is in persuading the world that Mozart was Austrian and Hitler German?
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914
    I can see why the Tories would like to get rid of Bercow (they always have but much more so now). However, I agree with David, " Allowing MPs to determine the business in front of the House is a good thing."
    Faced with a government that won't allow the HoC to discuss what the majority want to, it is a good thing that Bercow has done what he has. This is regardless of the present issue and is a good precedent for future Speakers to follow.
  • It has become clear that ERG have convinced themselves that by voting down the deal UK will exit with no deal as they have correctly said that by 498 mps voting for A50 the mps have voted for no deal as default. It is clear that the 498 lacked any form of common sense by not predicting this outcome and if it comes about all 498 mps share responsibility

    However, I still believe TM will not allow no deal but will continue to keep it on the table until either amendments to the vote or subsequent actions in the HOC give her the space to remove it without ERG being able to accuse her directly.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,388
    Cyclefree said:

    kle4 said:


    How things are selected for discussion is something of consequence . If the will of the commons to pass something were all that mattered the speaker need not have the power to reject anything. And you seem to have missed the Mr Herdson doesn't seem to mind the actual amendment here. Yes a lot of Tories deeply dislike the speaker. But others are using that as an excuse to pretend that is all it could possibly be. It's also a bit of a side issue to whether speakers should have main party challenger, a view many hold well before this incident.

    An underrated factor in politics is personal liking and dislikes. Bercow has a Marmite effect - lots of people (including me) really like him and find him a wonderful change from e.g. Betty Boothroyd, whose public popularity contrasts with what many of us thought was real favouritism for long-standing MPs over newcomers. And he's genuinely witty, which Speakers usually are not. Equally, many people find him really annoying. But I think he'd be gone if it wasn't for the large chunk of MPs who are fond of him, irrespective of whether he's being helpful.
    He should have gone over the bullying fiasco.

    He is simply unfit for office and is being kept in place by political bias
    You are a loyalist Big_G I expect you to say no less.... but if he upholds Parliament's rights the he gets my vote.
    Not really.

    He broke convention and thereby created a new precedent that even he accepts he needs to give consideration to

    He is pompous and his alleged bullying of staff and others demeans his office

    Indeed Betty Boothroyd was outspoken in her criticsm of him

    As an aside, I am content at Dominic Grieve's success in his amendment.
    Bercow may well be all these things. But I am puzzled by the enmity he attracts. I met and talked with him at an awards ceremony focused on women. He was not speaking and did not make himself the centre of attention but was very charming, thoughtful and spent time talking with people, me included, in a way which suggested genuine interest rather than simply focusing on the most important people in the room. And my other half has worked with him on various legal cases and has been impressed. And he is not someone who is easily impressed by anyone, let alone MPs.

    So I think there is more to him than the caricature that is often presented. That said, he has not responded well to the Cox report.
    Much of it is personal. Bercow had a habit of aggressively baiting and ridiculing rivals in the Conservative Party.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042
    On topic, it wouldn't matter how many amendments Mr Speaker allowed if the government had a majority in parliament. The fact that the government feels that it should be able to do what it likes against the wishes of the house is the real problem here.
  • The Conservative party's problem is that that can not get a majority in parliament to oust Bercow.

    Labour would support Bercow as would Conservative remainers ( all pretending that it was not a Brexit issue but supporting backbenchers against the executive).

    Bercows' spokesperson denied he has said he will step down any time soon and I suspect he will justify standing again at the next election whenever it is.

    The local Buckingham Conservatives have consistently refused to stand a candidate against Bercow and he still has some friends amongst them it seems.

    Many locals are happy with Bercow because he turns up at their local fete and local school all the time even though he has been unhelpful and ineffective on major local issues such as HS2, an incinerator and now the new housing cities and motorway being proposed in the constituency.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    Cyclefree said:

    kle4 said:


    How things are selected for discussion is something of consequence . If the will of the commons to pass something were all that mattered the speaker need not have the power to reject anything. And you seem to have missed the Mr Herdson doesn't seem to mind the actual amendment here. Yes a lot of Tories deeply dislike the speaker. But others are using that as an excuse to pretend that is all it could possibly be. It's also a bit of a side issue to whether speakers should have main party challenger, a view many hold well before this incident.

    An underrated factor in politics is personal liking and dislikes. Bercow has a Marmite effect - lots of people (including me) really like him and find him a wonderful change from e.g. Betty Boothroyd, whose public popularity contrasts with what many of us thought was real favouritism for long-standing MPs over newcomers. And he's genuinely witty, which Speakers usually are not. Equally, many people find him really annoying. But I think he'd be gone if it wasn't for the large chunk of MPs who are fond of him, irrespective of whether he's being helpful.
    He should have gone over the bullying fiasco.

    He is simply unfit for office and is being kept in place by political bias
    You are a loyalist Big_G I expect you to say no less.... but if he upholds Parliament's rights the he gets my vote.
    Not really.

    He broke convention and thereby created a new precedent that even he accepts he needs to give consideration to

    He is pompous and his alleged bullying of staff and others demeans his office

    Indeed Betty Boothroyd was outspoken in her criticsm of him

    As an aside, I am content at Dominic Grieve's success in his amendment.
    Bercow may well be all these things. But I am puzzled by the enmity he attracts. I met and talked with him at an awards ceremony focused on women. He was not speaking and did not make himself the centre of attention but was very charming, thoughtful and spent time talking with people, me included, in a way which suggested genuine interest rather than simply focusing on the most important people in the room. And my other half has worked with him on various legal cases and has been impressed. And he is not someone who is easily impressed by anyone, let alone MPs.

    So I think there is more to him than the caricature that is often presented. That said, he has not responded well to the Cox report.
    Set against your anecdote, he's been found to be a horror to women who have worked under him.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,501

    It has become clear that ERG have convinced themselves that by voting down the deal UK will exit with no deal as they have correctly said that by 498 mps voting for A50 the mps have voted for no deal as default. It is clear that the 498 lacked any form of common sense by not predicting this outcome and if it comes about all 498 mps share responsibility

    However, I still believe TM will not allow no deal but will continue to keep it on the table until either amendments to the vote or subsequent actions in the HOC give her the space to remove it without ERG being able to accuse her directly.

    She did, after all, campaign as enthusiastically as she ever does, for Remain. And her Deal is better than Leaving on 29th March without one.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    O/T I see the Liberals and Centre Party in Sweden have broken with their Conservative allies to back the Social Democrats. I doubt if that will end well for them.

    I don't know why the Swedish Democrats simply aren't brought into Government, as they have been in Denmark and Austria, rather than making continual political martyrs of them.
    I know next to nothing about the politics of Sweden, but perhaps the political culture there precludes this in a way that that in Austria does not? The Moderates and their allies may be too afraid of taint by association.

    Imagine what would happen if, in a future UK Parliament, a Conservative Government was reliant on a bloc of 20 MPs from a widely disliked party further to the Right of it. The various 'progressives' would have a field day.

    The CDU/CSU in Germany could ditch the Grand Coalition, if they assembled an alternative alliance with the FDP and AfD. But neither the conservatives nor liberals contemplated doing a deal with the far Right there, either.
    One can argue that the DUP is a far-right party, but I think most people in GB see them as odd more than extreme (and on economic policy they are pretty centrist). Image is crucial here - the fact that the Sweden Democrats were launched by a neo-Nazi is very hard to live down, whereas their Danish counterpart was launched by a completely unclassifiable eccentric low-tax anti-immigrant pacifist (his proposal for defence spending was a loudspeaker on a beach saying in Russian "We surrender!"). Similarly, the Front National has struggled to get past Le Pen (father) equivocating on gas chambers.

    Farage spotted that UKIP had to eject anyone with a BNP past. I think that people get used to extreme right-wing parties so long as they don't tolerate any flirtation with Nazism.
    The fact that the Austrian Freedom party became dominated by former Nazis probably enhances its appeal
    Isn't there something about the genius of the Austrians is in persuading the world that Mozart was Austrian and Hitler German?
    Didn't require much genius given Mozart was from Salzburg.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    O/T I see the Liberals and Centre Party in Sweden have broken with their Conservative allies to back the Social Democrats. I doubt if that will end well for them.

    I don't know why the Swedish Democrats simply aren't brought into Government, as they have been in Denmark and Austria, rather than making continual political martyrs of them.
    I know next to nothing about the politics of Sweden, but perhaps the political culture there precludes this in a way that that in Austria does not? The Moderates and their allies may be too afraid of taint by association.

    Imagine what would happen if, in a future UK Parliament, a Conservative Government was reliant on a bloc of 20 MPs from a widely disliked party further to the Right of it. The various 'progressives' would have a field day.

    The CDU/CSU in Germany could ditch the Grand Coalition, if they assembled an alternative alliance with the FDP and AfD. But neither the conservatives nor liberals contemplated doing a deal with the far Right there, either.
    One can argue that the DUP is a far-right party, but I think most people in GB see them as odd more than extreme (and on economic policy they are pretty centrist). Image is crucial here - the fact that the Sweden Democrats were launched by a neo-Nazi is very hard to live down, whereas their Danish counterpart was launched by a completely unclassifiable eccentric low-tax anti-immigrant pacifist (his proposal for defence spending was a loudspeaker on a beach saying in Russian "We surrender!"). Similarly, the Front National has struggled to get past Le Pen (father) equivocating on gas chambers.

    Farage spotted that UKIP had to eject anyone with a BNP past. I think that people get used to extreme right-wing parties so long as they don't tolerate any flirtation with Nazism.
    The fact that the Austrian Freedom party became dominated by former Nazis probably enhances its appeal
    Isn't there something about the genius of the Austrians is in persuading the world that Mozart was Austrian and Hitler German?
    Much like the genius of some French socialists persuading people to forget the times they either flirted with Nazis or were active members of the French equivalent, as in the case of one Francois Mitterand, for instance.

    Conveniently forgetting important bits of your own history is the only way most countries manage to get up in the morning and get on with life.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,501
    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    O/T I see the Liberals and Centre Party in Sweden have broken with their Conservative allies to back the Social Democrats. I doubt if that will end well for them.

    I don't know why the Swedish Democrats simply aren't brought into Government, as they have been in Denmark and Austria, rather than making continual political martyrs of them.
    I know next to nothing about the politics of Sweden, but perhaps the political culture there precludes this in a way that that in Austria does not? The Moderates and their allies may be too afraid of taint by association.

    Imagine what would happen if, in a future UK Parliament, a Conservative Government was reliant on a bloc of 20 MPs from a widely disliked party further to the Right of it. The various 'progressives' would have a field day.

    The CDU/CSU in Germany could ditch the Grand Coalition, if they assembled an alternative alliance with the FDP and AfD. But neither the conservatives nor liberals contemplated doing a deal with the far Right there, either.
    One can argue that the DUP is a far-right party, but I think most people in GB see them as odd more than extreme (and on economic policy they are pretty centrist). Image is crucial here - the fact that the Sweden Democrats were launched by a neo-Nazi is very hard to live down, whereas their Danish counterpart was launched by a completely unclassifiable eccentric low-tax anti-immigrant pacifist (his proposal for defence spending was a loudspeaker on a beach saying in Russian "We surrender!"). Similarly, the Front National has struggled to get past Le Pen (father) equivocating on gas chambers.

    Farage spotted that UKIP had to eject anyone with a BNP past. I think that people get used to extreme right-wing parties so long as they don't tolerate any flirtation with Nazism.
    The fact that the Austrian Freedom party became dominated by former Nazis probably enhances its appeal
    Isn't there something about the genius of the Austrians is in persuading the world that Mozart was Austrian and Hitler German?
    Didn't require much genius given Mozart was from Salzburg.
    Was it at the material time? Alternatively have I, as I might have, mistaken the composer quoted?
  • It has become clear that ERG have convinced themselves that by voting down the deal UK will exit with no deal as they have correctly said that by 498 mps voting for A50 the mps have voted for no deal as default. It is clear that the 498 lacked any form of common sense by not predicting this outcome and if it comes about all 498 mps share responsibility

    However, I still believe TM will not allow no deal but will continue to keep it on the table until either amendments to the vote or subsequent actions in the HOC give her the space to remove it without ERG being able to accuse her directly.

    She did, after all, campaign as enthusiastically as she ever does, for Remain. And her Deal is better than Leaving on 29th March without one.
    History will show that TM achieved a Brexit deal with the 27 Countries of Europe and if brexit falls it will be the responsibility, ironically, of the ERG members
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    O/T I see the Liberals and Centre Party in Sweden have broken with their Conservative allies to back the Social Democrats. I doubt if that will end well for them.

    I don't know why the Swedish Democrats simply aren't brought into Government, as they have been in Denmark and Austria, rather than making continual political martyrs of them.
    I know next to nothing about the politics of Sweden, but perhaps the political culture there precludes this in a way that that in Austria does not? The Moderates and their allies may be too afraid of taint by association.

    Imagine what would happen if, in a future UK Parliament, a Conservative Government was reliant on a bloc of 20 MPs from a widely disliked party further to the Right of it. The various 'progressives' would have a field day.

    The CDU/CSU in Germany could ditch the Grand Coalition, if they assembled an alternative alliance with the FDP and AfD. But neither the conservatives nor liberals contemplated doing a deal with the far Right there, either.
    One can argue that the DUP is a far-right party, but I think most people in GB see them as odd more than extreme (and on economic policy they are pretty centrist). Image is crucial here - the fact that the Sweden Democrats were launched by a neo-Nazi is very hard to live down, whereas their Danish counterpart was launched by a completely unclassifiable eccentric low-tax anti-immigrant pacifist (his proposal for defence spending was a loudspeaker on a beach saying in Russian "We surrender!"). Similarly, the Front National has struggled to get past Le Pen (father) equivocating on gas chambers.

    Farage spotted that UKIP had to eject anyone with a BNP past. I think that people get used to extreme right-wing parties so long as they don't tolerate any flirtation with Nazism.
    The fact that the Austrian Freedom party became dominated by former Nazis probably enhances its appeal
    Isn't there something about the genius of the Austrians is in persuading the world that Mozart was Austrian and Hitler German?
    Mozart was Austrian. You mean Beethoven.
  • BudGBudG Posts: 711

    It has become clear that ERG have convinced themselves that by voting down the deal UK will exit with no deal

    And by stating that she will not be asking the EU for even a short extension of a couple of months before the EU elections, to allow Parliament a little more time to reach an agreement as to the way forward, May has encouraged the ERG to convince themselves that a no deal crash-out on 29th March will be the result of them continuing to vote down her deal.

    There is no excuse for ruling out asking for a short extension, which would probably be granted. It was not the will of the British people in the referendum that we leave on March 29th 2019.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,501
    Cyclefree said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    O/T I see the Liberals and Centre Party in Sweden have broken with their Conservative allies to back the Social Democrats. I doubt if that will end well for them.

    I don't know why the Swedish Democrats simply aren't brought into Government, as they have been in Denmark and Austria, rather than making continual political martyrs of them.
    I know next to nothing about the politics of Sweden, but perhaps the political culture there precludes this in a way that that in Austria does not? The Moderates and their allies may be too afraid of taint by association.

    Imagine what would happen if, in a future UK Parliament, a Conservative Government was reliant on a bloc of 20 MPs from a widely disliked party further to the Right of it. The various 'progressives' would have a field day.

    The CDU/CSU in Germany could ditch the Grand Coalition, if they assembled an alternative alliance with the FDP and AfD. But neither the conservatives nor liberals contemplated doing a deal with the far Right there, either.
    One can argue that the DUP is a far-right party, but I think most people in GB see them as odd more than extreme (and on economic policy they are pretty centrist). Image is crucial here - the fact that the Sweden Democrats were launched by a neo-Nazi is very hard to live down, whereas their Danish counterpart was launched by a completely unclassifiable eccentric low-tax anti-immigrant pacifist (his proposal for defence spending was a loudspeaker on a beach saying in Russian "We surrender!"). Similarly, the Front National has struggled to get past Le Pen (father) equivocating on gas chambers.

    Farage spotted that UKIP had to eject anyone with a BNP past. I think that people get used to extreme right-wing parties so long as they don't tolerate any flirtation with Nazism.
    The fact that the Austrian Freedom party became dominated by former Nazis probably enhances its appeal
    Isn't there something about the genius of the Austrians is in persuading the world that Mozart was Austrian and Hitler German?
    Much like the genius of some French socialists persuading people to forget the times they either flirted with Nazis or were active members of the French equivalent, as in the case of one Francois Mitterand, for instance.

    Conveniently forgetting important bits of your own history is the only way most countries manage to get up in the morning and get on with life.
    Indeed; I have, I think heard it said that there were more members of the Resistance than Frenchmen. Even allowing for the female members!
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537
    Foxy said:



    I agree, but Community sentances need to be properly supervised by a well funded and run probation service.

    There is also the small matter that many short sentences are for repeat offenders on whom community sentencrs have previously failed. It is not comparing like with like.

    Additionally, it may just mean that courts give 12 month sentences instead of 6!

    Yes, I'd go for that too IF prisons made a serious effort to rehabilitate. They don't have the resources and are basically warehouses with random token efforts. For instance, when I went round Nottingham prison I found that they did indeed offer education, but partly because prisoners were moved so often to other prisons because of capacity issues, few ever managed to complete a course (lack of support and lack of motivation in many prisoners were the other main reasons). If prisons offered courses with proper support and you had to pass them to get early release, it'd be a big step forward.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    Cyclefree said:

    kle4 said:



    An underrated factor in politics is personal liking and dislikes. Bercow has a Marmite effect - lots of people (including me) really like him and find him a wonderful change from e.g. Betty Boothroyd, whose public popularity contrasts with what many of us thought was real favouritism for long-standing MPs over newcomers. And he's genuinely witty, which Speakers usually are not. Equally, many people find him really annoying. But I think he'd be gone if it wasn't for the large chunk of MPs who are fond of him, irrespective of whether he's being helpful.
    He should have gone over the bullying fiasco.

    He is simply unfit for office and is being kept in place by political bias
    You are a loyalist Big_G I expect you to say no less.... but if he upholds Parliament's rights the he gets my vote.
    Not really.

    He broke convention and thereby created a new precedent that even he accepts he needs to give consideration to

    He is pompous and his alleged bullying of staff and others demeans his office

    Indeed Betty Boothroyd was outspoken in her criticsm of him

    As an aside, I am content at Dominic Grieve's success in his amendment.
    Bercow may well be all these things. But I am puzzled by the enmity he attracts. I met and talked with him at an awards ceremony focused on women. He was not speaking and did not make himself the centre of attention but was very charming, thoughtful and spent time talking with people, me included, in a way which suggested genuine interest rather than simply focusing on the most important people in the room. And my other half has worked with him on various legal cases and has been impressed. And he is not someone who is easily impressed by anyone, let alone MPs.

    So I think there is more to him than the caricature that is often presented. That said, he has not responded well to the Cox report.
    Set against your anecdote, he's been found to be a horror to women who have worked under him.
    I thought the bullying allegations came from men?

    But I agree that the main reason for him going is that he is not the right person to help clean up Parliament, given what is revealed in the Cox report. That is a real horror show.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,501
    RoyalBlue said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    O/T I see the Liberals and Centre Party in Sweden have broken with their Conservative allies to back the Social Democrats. I doubt if that will end well for them.

    I don't know why the Swedish Democrats simply aren't brought into Government, as they have been in Denmark and Austria, rather than making continual political martyrs of them.
    I know next to nothing about the politics of Sweden, but perhaps the political culture there precludes this in a way that that in Austria does not? The Moderates and their allies may be too afraid of taint by association.

    Imagine what would happen if, in a future UK Parliament, a Conservative Government was reliant on a bloc of 20 MPs from a widely disliked party further to the Right of it. The various 'progressives' would have a field day.

    The CDU/CSU in Germany could ditch the Grand Coalition, if they assembled an alternative alliance with the FDP and AfD. But neither the conservatives nor liberals contemplated doing a deal with the far Right there, either.
    One can argue that the DUP is a far-right party, but I think most people in GB see them as odd more than extreme (and on economic policy they are pretty centrist). Image is crucial here - the fact that the Sweden Democrats were launched by a neo-Nazi is very hard to live down, whereas their Danish counterpart was launched by a completely unclassifiable eccentric low-tax anti-immigrant pacifist (his proposal for defence spending was a loudspeaker on a beach saying in Russian "We surrender!"). Similarly, the Front National has struggled to get past Le Pen (father) equivocating on gas chambers.

    Farage spotted that UKIP had to eject anyone with a BNP past. I think that people get used to extreme right-wing parties so long as they don't tolerate any flirtation with Nazism.
    The fact that the Austrian Freedom party became dominated by former Nazis probably enhances its appeal
    Isn't there something about the genius of the Austrians is in persuading the world that Mozart was Austrian and Hitler German?
    Mozart was Austrian. You mean Beethoven.
    Obliged! Thank you.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,388
    Cyclefree said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    O/T I see the Liberals and Centre Party in Sweden have broken with their Conservative allies to back the Social Democrats. I doubt if that will end well for them.

    I don't know why the Swedish Democrats simply aren't brought into Government, as they have been in Denmark and Austria, rather than making continual political martyrs of them.
    I know next to nothing about the politics of Sweden, but perhaps the political culture there precludes this in a way that that in Austria does not? The Moderates and their allies may be too afraid of taint by association.

    Imagine what would happen if, in a future UK Parliament, a Conservative Government was reliant on a bloc of 20 MPs from a widely disliked party further to the Right of it. The various 'progressives' would have a field day.

    The CDU/CSU in Germany could ditch the Grand Coalition, if they assembled an alternative alliance with the FDP and AfD. But neither the conservatives nor liberals contemplated doing a deal with the far Right there, either.
    One can argue that the DUP is a far-right party, but I think most people in GB see them as odd more than extreme (and on economic policy they are pretty centrist). Image is crucial here - the fact that the Sweden Democrats were launched by a neo-Nazi is very hard to live down, whereas their Danish counterpart was launched by a completely unclassifiable eccentric low-tax anti-immigrant pacifist (his proposal for defence spending was a loudspeaker on a beach saying in Russian "We surrender!"). Similarly, the Front National has struggled to get past Le Pen (father) equivocating on gas chambers.

    Farage spotted that UKIP had to eject anyone with a BNP past. I think that people get used to extreme right-wing parties so long as they don't tolerate any flirtation with Nazism.
    The fact that the Austrian Freedom party became dominated by former Nazis probably enhances its appeal
    Isn't there something about the genius of the Austrians is in persuading the world that Mozart was Austrian and Hitler German?
    Much like the genius of some French socialists persuading people to forget the times they either flirted with Nazis or were active members of the French equivalent, as in the case of one Francois Mitterand, for instance.

    Conveniently forgetting important bits of your own history is the only way most countries manage to get up in the morning and get on with life.
    Treason is a matter of dates.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    Good article. Bercow can’t complain that it’s unprecedented because, by his own admission and behaviour, he is a Speaker who puts arbitrary action over precedent and established procedure. Parliament cannot legitimately function if the Speaker is biased, as Bercow clearly is. The man is a disgrace to parliamentary democracy in this country. Unfortunately, there could be a long wait until the next election.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    Sean_F said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    O/T I see the Liberals and Centre Party in Sweden have broken with their Conservative allies to back the Social Democrats. I doubt if that will end well for them.

    I don't know why the Swedish Democrats simply aren't brought into Government, as they have been in Denmark and Austria, rather than making continual political martyrs of them.
    I know next to nothing about the politics of Sweden, but perhaps the political culture there precludes this in a way that that in Austria does not? The Moderates and their allies may be too afraid of taint by association.

    Imagine what would happen if, in a future UK Parliament, a Conservative Government was reliant on a bloc of 20 MPs from a widely disliked party further to the Right of it. The various 'progressives' would have a field day.

    The CDU/CSU in Germany could ditch the Grand Coalition, if they assembled an alternative alliance with the FDP and AfD. But neither the conservatives nor liberals contemplated doing a deal with the far Right there, either.
    One can argue that the DUP is a far-right party, but I think most people in GB see them as odd more than extreme (and on economic policy they are pretty centrist). Image is crucial here - the fact that the Sweden Democrats were launched by a neo-Nazi is very hard to live down, whereas their Danish counterpart was launched by a completely unclassifiable eccentric low-tax anti-immigrant pacifist (his proposal for defence spending was a loudspeaker on a beach saying in Russian "We surrender!"). Similarly, the Front National has struggled to get past Le Pen (father) equivocating on gas chambers.

    Farage spotted that UKIP had to eject anyone with a BNP past. I think that people get used to extreme right-wing parties so long as they don't tolerate any flirtation with Nazism.
    The fact that the Austrian Freedom party became dominated by former Nazis probably enhances its appeal
    Isn't there something about the genius of the Austrians is in persuading the world that Mozart was Austrian and Hitler German?
    Much like the genius of some French socialists persuading people to forget the times they either flirted with Nazis or were active members of the French equivalent, as in the case of one Francois Mitterand, for instance.

    Conveniently forgetting important bits of your own history is the only way most countries manage to get up in the morning and get on with life.
    Treason is a matter of dates.
    As with much else in life, timing is everything.

    Have a good day all.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    RoyalBlue said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    O/T I see the Liberals and Centre Party in Sweden have broken with their Conservative allies to back the Social Democrats. I doubt if that will end well for them.

    I don't know why the Swedish Democrats simply aren't brought into Government, as they have been in Denmark and Austria, rather than making continual political martyrs of them.
    I know next to nothing about the politics of Sweden, but perhaps the political culture there precludes this in a way that that in Austria does not? The Moderates and their allies may be too afraid of taint by association.

    Imagine what would happen if, in a future UK Parliament, a Conservative Government was reliant on a bloc of 20 MPs from a widely disliked party further to the Right of it. The various 'progressives' would have a field day.

    The CDU/CSU in Germany could ditch the Grand Coalition, if they assembled an alternative alliance with the FDP and AfD. But neither the conservatives nor liberals contemplated doing a deal with the far Right there, either.
    One can argue that the DUP is a far-right party, but I think most people in GB see them as odd more than extreme (and on economic policy they are pretty centrist). Image is crucial here - the fact that the Sweden Democrats were launched by a neo-Nazi is very hard to live down, whereas their Danish counterpart was launched by a completely unclassifiable eccentric low-tax anti-immigrant pacifist (his proposal for defence spending was a loudspeaker on a beach saying in Russian "We surrender!"). Similarly, the Front National has struggled to get past Le Pen (father) equivocating on gas chambers.

    Farage spotted that UKIP had to eject anyone with a BNP past. I think that people get used to extreme right-wing parties so long as they don't tolerate any flirtation with Nazism.
    The fact that the Austrian Freedom party became dominated by former Nazis probably enhances its appeal
    Isn't there something about the genius of the Austrians is in persuading the world that Mozart was Austrian and Hitler German?
    Mozart was Austrian. You mean Beethoven.
    Obliged! Thank you.
    My pleasure :smile:

    At least no-one can contest Germany’s claim to the greatest composer who ever lived: Johann Sebastian Bach.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,388

    It has become clear that ERG have convinced themselves that by voting down the deal UK will exit with no deal as they have correctly said that by 498 mps voting for A50 the mps have voted for no deal as default. It is clear that the 498 lacked any form of common sense by not predicting this outcome and if it comes about all 498 mps share responsibility

    However, I still believe TM will not allow no deal but will continue to keep it on the table until either amendments to the vote or subsequent actions in the HOC give her the space to remove it without ERG being able to accuse her directly.

    She did, after all, campaign as enthusiastically as she ever does, for Remain. And her Deal is better than Leaving on 29th March without one.
    History will show that TM achieved a Brexit deal with the 27 Countries of Europe and if brexit falls it will be the responsibility, ironically, of the ERG members
    My lack of respect for people like Andrew Bridgen, Mark Francois, and Boris Johnson is boundless.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    O/T I see the Liberals and Centre Party in Sweden have broken with their Conservative allies to back the Social Democrats. I doubt if that will end well for them.

    I don't know why the Swedish Democrats simply aren't brought into Government, as they have been in Denmark and Austria, rather than making continual political martyrs of them.
    I know next to nothing about the politics of Sweden, but perhaps the political culture there precludes this in a way that that in Austria does not? The Moderates and their allies may be too afraid of taint by association.

    Imagine what would happen if, in a future UK Parliament, a Conservative Government was reliant on a bloc of 20 MPs from a widely disliked party further to the Right of it. The various 'progressives' would have a field day.

    The CDU/CSU in Germany could ditch the Grand Coalition, if they assembled an alternative alliance with the FDP and AfD. But neither the conservatives nor liberals contemplated doing a deal with the far Right there, either.
    One can argue that the DUP is a far-right party, but I think most people in GB see them as odd more than extreme (and on economic policy they are pretty centrist). Image is crucial here - the fact that the Sweden Democrats were launched by a neo-Nazi is very hard to live down, whereas their Danish counterpart was launched by a completely unclassifiable eccentric low-tax anti-immigrant pacifist (his proposal for defence spending was a loudspeaker on a beach saying in Russian "We surrender!"). Similarly, the Front National has struggled to get past Le Pen (father) equivocating on gas chambers.

    Farage spotted that UKIP had to eject anyone with a BNP past. I think that people get used to extreme right-wing parties so long as they don't tolerate any flirtation with Nazism.
    The fact that the Austrian Freedom party became dominated by former Nazis probably enhances its appeal
    Isn't there something about the genius of the Austrians is in persuading the world that Mozart was Austrian and Hitler German?
    Didn't require much genius given Mozart was from Salzburg.
    Voting for the "best German of all time" got off to a shaky start yesterday after the Austrian ambassador to Germany complained that Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart, whose name appears on a list of eligible candidates, is Austrian.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2003/aug/07/arts.germany
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,501
    On Treason: (may have posted it before)

    Treason doth never prosper
    What's the reason?
    If it do prosper, none dare call it treason!
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Probably already posted but:

    Tulsi Gabbard: Democrat says she will run for president in 2020

    Oh. Iraq vet. Trump would have problems with Gabbard. I suppose he could say she was a coward as she came home alive.
    Maybe Putin will make him go easy on her, she seems to be his Plan B...
    Eh?
    Gabbard is a massive Putin lover. It is what makes her a total non-starter.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    kle4 said:



    An underrated factor in politics is personal liking and dislikes. Bercow has a Marmite effect - lots of people (including me) really like him and find him a wonderful change from e.g. Betty Boothroyd, whose public popularity contrasts with what many of us thought was real favouritism for long-standing MPs over newcomers. And he's genuinely witty, which Speakers usually are not. Equally, many people find him really annoying. But I think he'd be gone if it wasn't for the large chunk of MPs who are fond of him, irrespective of whether he's being helpful.
    He should have gone over the bullying fiasco.

    He is simply unfit for office and is being kept in place by political bias
    You are a loyalist Big_G I expect you to say no less.... but if he upholds Parliament's rights the he gets my vote.
    Not really.

    He broke convention and thereby created a new precedent that even he accepts he needs to give consideration to

    He is pompous and his alleged bullying of staff and others demeans his office

    Indeed Betty Boothroyd was outspoken in her criticsm of him

    As an aside, I am content at Dominic Grieve's success in his amendment.
    Bercow may well be all these things. But I am puzzled by the enmity he attracts. I met and talked with him at an awards ceremony focused on women. He was not speaking and did not make himself the centre of attention but was very charming, thoughtful and spent time talking with people, me included, in a way which suggested genuine interest rather than simply focusing on the most important people in the room. And my other half has worked with him on various legal cases and has been impressed. And he is not someone who is easily impressed by anyone, let alone MPs.

    So I think there is more to him than the caricature that is often presented. That said, he has not responded well to the Cox report.
    Set against your anecdote, he's been found to be a horror to women who have worked under him.
    I thought the bullying allegations came from men?
    Kate Emms was a former private secretary who has made complaints about Bercow.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/11/john-bercow-bullying-allegations-step-back-until-inquiry-over
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    Voting for the "best German of all time" got off to a shaky start yesterday after the Austrian ambassador to Germany complained that Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart, whose name appears on a list of eligible candidates, is Austrian.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2003/aug/07/arts.germany

    Well, German history is incredibly complicated in terms of delineating political boundaries. Technically there was no state of 'Germany' until 1871. Although Mozart was Austrian, his father was Bavarian and both were at that time part of the Holy Roman Empire which technically included most of Germany, albeit in a very loose confederation. Even after the dissolution of the Empire in 1806, there was always a widespread belief (and not just in Germany) that Austria was a German state that just didn't happen to be part of Germany.

    Therefore at the time Bach was born Eisenach was part of the state that later transformed into the Empire of Austria (sorry @RoyalBlue)!

    So I can see how Mozart might be claimed as German, or very cheekily Bach as Austrian. I can also say I think for the time period we're talking about such labels are anachronistic. Nationality mattered less than language in that place and period. From that point of view, both were German.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,388

    On Treason: (may have posted it before)

    Treason doth never prosper
    What's the reason?
    If it do prosper, none dare call it treason!

    If the Germans had won WWII, Petain, Laval, Quisling, and the leaders of a pro Nazi British government would be seen as national heroes.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,773
    Goddard arrest.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Sean_F said:

    On Treason: (may have posted it before)

    Treason doth never prosper
    What's the reason?
    If it do prosper, none dare call it treason!

    If the Germans had won WWII, Petain, Laval, Quisling, and the leaders of a pro Nazi British government would be seen as national heroes.
    George Washington is a national hero, and has statues galore and even the capital of the USA named after him.

    Lee is vilified and was recently part of a direct action campaign to have his statues and name removed from all places as a racist traitor.

    What were the differences?

    1) Washington kept his slaves units he died - Lee released his in his lifetime, punctiliously observing his father-in-law's will;

    2) One was a shite general who was practically incapable of fighting an effective battle, and the other was one of the most daring and inventive generals of them all and a key figure of the Army of the Confederacy;

    3) One won. The other lost.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,501
    edited January 2019
    Alistair said:

    Probably already posted but:

    Tulsi Gabbard: Democrat says she will run for president in 2020

    Oh. Iraq vet. Trump would have problems with Gabbard. I suppose he could say she was a coward as she came home alive.
    Maybe Putin will make him go easy on her, she seems to be his Plan B...
    Eh?
    Gabbard is a massive Putin lover. It is what makes her a total non-starter.
    She's pro-Assad, but that doesn't necessarily make her a 'Putin lover'. Mind, being pro-Assad isn't much of a recommendation either!
  • ydoethur said:

    Voting for the "best German of all time" got off to a shaky start yesterday after the Austrian ambassador to Germany complained that Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart, whose name appears on a list of eligible candidates, is Austrian.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2003/aug/07/arts.germany

    Well, German history is incredibly complicated in terms of delineating political boundaries. Technically there was no state of 'Germany' until 1871. Although Mozart was Austrian, his father was Bavarian and both were at that time part of the Holy Roman Empire which technically included most of Germany, albeit in a very loose confederation. Even after the dissolution of the Empire in 1806, there was always a widespread belief (and not just in Germany) that Austria was a German state that just didn't happen to be part of Germany.

    Therefore at the time Bach was born Eisenach was part of the state that later transformed into the Empire of Austria (sorry @RoyalBlue)!

    So I can see how Mozart might be claimed as German, or very cheekily Bach as Austrian. I can also say I think for the time period we're talking about such labels are anachronistic. Nationality mattered less than language in that place and period. From that point of view, both were German.
    It was always said jokingly that Austria had the best PR man in history. He managed to convince the world that Mozart was Austrian and Hitler was German.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Sean_F said:

    It has become clear that ERG have convinced themselves that by voting down the deal UK will exit with no deal as they have correctly said that by 498 mps voting for A50 the mps have voted for no deal as default. It is clear that the 498 lacked any form of common sense by not predicting this outcome and if it comes about all 498 mps share responsibility

    However, I still believe TM will not allow no deal but will continue to keep it on the table until either amendments to the vote or subsequent actions in the HOC give her the space to remove it without ERG being able to accuse her directly.

    She did, after all, campaign as enthusiastically as she ever does, for Remain. And her Deal is better than Leaving on 29th March without one.
    History will show that TM achieved a Brexit deal with the 27 Countries of Europe and if brexit falls it will be the responsibility, ironically, of the ERG members
    My lack of respect for people like Andrew Bridgen, Mark Francois, and Boris Johnson is boundless.
    Lumping them together misses an important point, however. The first two want Brexit to happen, provided they can reserve sufficient criticism to be able to claim that whatever is done isn't precisely what they wanted and hence the consequences aren't their fault. The latter actually wouldn't mind if Brexit doesn't happen, which was his premise from the beginning.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Goddard arrest.

    Him, not her

    Goddard... Gabbard :D:D
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Help!

    Grayling has agreed with me:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46847169

    Is there some sort of counselling hotline available?

    And I've just found myself agreeing with Lord Adonis

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1083997763304603648

    Perhaps we can form a support group?
    On the Justice Select Commitee we did a report on the cost-effectiveness of different kinds of incarceration internationally - probably the best thing I helped do in 13 years - and I recall that one part of the evidence was that sentence under 6 months are actually counter-productive, because:

    a) They bring casual criminals into contact with serious criminals, who offer you seemingly attractive serious criminal options when released
    b) They are just long enough to make you lose your job, which shatters your chance of getting back on the straight and narrow
    c) They don't give time for serious rehab work and prisons therefore just don't bother with you - you'll be out in 3 months, so they just feed you and hope you won't be a nuisance.

    Much better to give serious criminals longer sentences with good rehab work, and minor criminals intensive supervision and conselling.
    +1
    Short prison sentences are a silly idea, for all the mentioned reasons and more. Much better to use community - based penalties for anyone who isn’t violent and doesn’t provide a threat to the public.
    I agree, but Community sentances need to be properly supervised by a well funded and run probation service.

    There is also the small matter that many short sentences are for repeat offenders on whom community sentencrs have previously failed. It is not comparing like with like.

    Additionally, it may just mean that courts give 12 month sentences instead of 6!
    Agreed on all points.

    In exchange for beefing up the probation service, it needs to made be clear to those on community sentences that they’ll get a year inside if they don’t comply.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    edited January 2019
    ydoethur said:

    Voting for the "best German of all time" got off to a shaky start yesterday after the Austrian ambassador to Germany complained that Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart, whose name appears on a list of eligible candidates, is Austrian.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2003/aug/07/arts.germany

    Well, German history is incredibly complicated in terms of delineating political boundaries. Technically there was no state of 'Germany' until 1871. Although Mozart was Austrian, his father was Bavarian and both were at that time part of the Holy Roman Empire which technically included most of Germany, albeit in a very loose confederation. Even after the dissolution of the Empire in 1806, there was always a widespread belief (and not just in Germany) that Austria was a German state that just didn't happen to be part of Germany.

    Therefore at the time Bach was born Eisenach was part of the state that later transformed into the Empire of Austria (sorry @RoyalBlue)!

    So I can see how Mozart might be claimed as German, or very cheekily Bach as Austrian. I can also say I think for the time period we're talking about such labels are anachronistic. Nationality mattered less than language in that place and period. From that point of view, both were German.
    Indeed, until the rise of nationalism in the 19th century, most of Europe was composed of multi-cultural states, with peoples that were found in other states also. Allegiance was to monarch rather than to ethnicity, language or even in many countries religion. Then as now people often had multiple overlapping identities.

    Mozart was a German Austrian, a subject of the Hapsburg monarchy.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    ydoethur said:

    Voting for the "best German of all time" got off to a shaky start yesterday after the Austrian ambassador to Germany complained that Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart, whose name appears on a list of eligible candidates, is Austrian.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2003/aug/07/arts.germany

    Well, German history is incredibly complicated in terms of delineating political boundaries. Technically there was no state of 'Germany' until 1871. Although Mozart was Austrian, his father was Bavarian and both were at that time part of the Holy Roman Empire which technically included most of Germany, albeit in a very loose confederation. Even after the dissolution of the Empire in 1806, there was always a widespread belief (and not just in Germany) that Austria was a German state that just didn't happen to be part of Germany.

    Therefore at the time Bach was born Eisenach was part of the state that later transformed into the Empire of Austria (sorry @RoyalBlue)!

    So I can see how Mozart might be claimed as German, or very cheekily Bach as Austrian. I can also say I think for the time period we're talking about such labels are anachronistic. Nationality mattered less than language in that place and period. From that point of view, both were German.
    It was always said jokingly that Austria had the best PR man in history. He managed to convince the world that Mozart was Austrian and Hitler was German.
    You've missed half the conversation. It was Beethoven, not Mozart. Who was born in Bonn in the Holy Roman Empire (see above) before moving to Vienna, where following the dissolution of the Empire he died an Austrian.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,388
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Voting for the "best German of all time" got off to a shaky start yesterday after the Austrian ambassador to Germany complained that Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart, whose name appears on a list of eligible candidates, is Austrian.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2003/aug/07/arts.germany

    Well, German history is incredibly complicated in terms of delineating political boundaries. Technically there was no state of 'Germany' until 1871. Although Mozart was Austrian, his father was Bavarian and both were at that time part of the Holy Roman Empire which technically included most of Germany, albeit in a very loose confederation. Even after the dissolution of the Empire in 1806, there was always a widespread belief (and not just in Germany) that Austria was a German state that just didn't happen to be part of Germany.

    Therefore at the time Bach was born Eisenach was part of the state that later transformed into the Empire of Austria (sorry @RoyalBlue)!

    So I can see how Mozart might be claimed as German, or very cheekily Bach as Austrian. I can also say I think for the time period we're talking about such labels are anachronistic. Nationality mattered less than language in that place and period. From that point of view, both were German.
    Indeed, until the rise of nationalism in the 19th century, most of Europe was composed of multi-cultural states, with peoples that were found in other states also. Allegiance was to monarch rather than to ethnicity, language or even in many countries religion. Then as now people often had multiple overlapping identities.

    Mozart was a German Austrian, a subject of the Hapsburg monarchy.
    Germans effectively ruled Russia, for much of the 18 th century
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,773
    There was some debate on here the other day about whether UK will need to do EU elections if we extend A50.

    Parliament mag has an article:

    https://www.theparliamentmagazine.eu/articles/news/article-50-extension-could-see-uk-participation-european-elections
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    There was some debate on here the other day about whether UK will need to do EU elections if we extend A50.

    Parliament mag has an article:

    https://www.theparliamentmagazine.eu/articles/news/article-50-extension-could-see-uk-participation-european-elections

    "Our European friends are looking on in horror as the mother of parliaments they have so long respected struggles with the constitutional hand-grenade that Brexit represents.”
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Voting for the "best German of all time" got off to a shaky start yesterday after the Austrian ambassador to Germany complained that Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart, whose name appears on a list of eligible candidates, is Austrian.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2003/aug/07/arts.germany

    Well, German history is incredibly complicated in terms of delineating political boundaries. Technically there was no state of 'Germany' until 1871. Although Mozart was Austrian, his father was Bavarian and both were at that time part of the Holy Roman Empire which technically included most of Germany, albeit in a very loose confederation. Even after the dissolution of the Empire in 1806, there was always a widespread belief (and not just in Germany) that Austria was a German state that just didn't happen to be part of Germany.

    Therefore at the time Bach was born Eisenach was part of the state that later transformed into the Empire of Austria (sorry @RoyalBlue)!

    So I can see how Mozart might be claimed as German, or very cheekily Bach as Austrian. I can also say I think for the time period we're talking about such labels are anachronistic. Nationality mattered less than language in that place and period. From that point of view, both were German.
    Indeed, until the rise of nationalism in the 19th century, most of Europe was composed of multi-cultural states, with peoples that were found in other states also. Allegiance was to monarch rather than to ethnicity, language or even in many countries religion. Then as now people often had multiple overlapping identities.

    Mozart was a German Austrian, a subject of the Hapsburg monarchy.
    Germans effectively ruled Russia, for much of the 18 th century
    Indeed. The great Catherine being a German who reinvented herself. Indeed the Germans have done well in reinventing themselves to rule all sorts of countries.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Foxy said:

    Mozart was a German Austrian, a subject of the Hapsburg monarchy.

    Mozart was the greatest composer ever. That is all that matters!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,388
    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    On Treason: (may have posted it before)

    Treason doth never prosper
    What's the reason?
    If it do prosper, none dare call it treason!

    If the Germans had won WWII, Petain, Laval, Quisling, and the leaders of a pro Nazi British government would be seen as national heroes.
    George Washington is a national hero, and has statues galore and even the capital of the USA named after him.

    Lee is vilified and was recently part of a direct action campaign to have his statues and name removed from all places as a racist traitor.

    What were the differences?

    1) Washington kept his slaves units he died - Lee released his in his lifetime, punctiliously observing his father-in-law's will;

    2) One was a shite general who was practically incapable of fighting an effective battle, and the other was one of the most daring and inventive generals of them all and a key figure of the Army of the Confederacy;

    3) One won. The other lost.
    George Macdonald Fraser invented a fictional conversation between Flashman and Lincoln. Flashman tried to tease him by asking what made the rebellion of 1776 right, but that of 1861 wrong.

    One succeeded,, the other failed.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    Sean_F said:

    It has become clear that ERG have convinced themselves that by voting down the deal UK will exit with no deal as they have correctly said that by 498 mps voting for A50 the mps have voted for no deal as default. It is clear that the 498 lacked any form of common sense by not predicting this outcome and if it comes about all 498 mps share responsibility

    However, I still believe TM will not allow no deal but will continue to keep it on the table until either amendments to the vote or subsequent actions in the HOC give her the space to remove it without ERG being able to accuse her directly.

    She did, after all, campaign as enthusiastically as she ever does, for Remain. And her Deal is better than Leaving on 29th March without one.
    History will show that TM achieved a Brexit deal with the 27 Countries of Europe and if brexit falls it will be the responsibility, ironically, of the ERG members
    My lack of respect for people like Andrew Bridgen, Mark Francois, and Boris Johnson is boundless.
    But do you have any more respect for either May, Hammond or Clark who have negotiated a deal that is simply a white flag that does nothing for us or for arch Remainers like Grieve, Soubry, and Greening who are openly trying to thwart the referendum. I don’t.

    The ERG can be rightly criticised for being utterly clueless on the type of Brexit they want and for failingto put in the hard work to prepare one but to put together a “deal” that is clearly worse than no deal is an abdication of responsibility.

    Both no deal and no Brexit are better than May’s “deal”.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    edited January 2019
    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    On Treason: (may have posted it before)

    Treason doth never prosper
    What's the reason?
    If it do prosper, none dare call it treason!

    If the Germans had won WWII, Petain, Laval, Quisling, and the leaders of a pro Nazi British government would be seen as national heroes.
    George Washington is a national hero, and has statues galore and even the capital of the USA named after him.

    Lee is vilified and was recently part of a direct action campaign to have his statues and name removed from all places as a racist traitor.

    What were the differences?

    1) Washington kept his slaves units he died - Lee released his in his lifetime, punctiliously observing his father-in-law's will;

    2) One was a shite general who was practically incapable of fighting an effective battle, and the other was one of the most daring and inventive generals of them all and a key figure of the Army of the Confederacy;

    3) One won. The other lost.
    The question of whether Washington was a shite General is an interesting one. He did after all win the war! He did it by the method that has been successful in many other insurgencies. He kept his army in the field and substantially intact until the enemy decided the war was unwinnable. His was the prototype independence campaign. Cornwallis won every battle in his southern campaign until his surrender at Yorktown. It is a difference between strategy and tactics that May ignores.

    Incidentally, over the holidays I went to see Hamilton (the award winning musical) great fun and deserving of the hype. Who would have thought a biography of an early American politician done substantially in rap by a multi-ethnic cast could be so brilliant and effective?

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    Sean_F said:

    It has become clear that ERG have convinced themselves that by voting down the deal UK will exit with no deal as they have correctly said that by 498 mps voting for A50 the mps have voted for no deal as default. It is clear that the 498 lacked any form of common sense by not predicting this outcome and if it comes about all 498 mps share responsibility

    However, I still believe TM will not allow no deal but will continue to keep it on the table until either amendments to the vote or subsequent actions in the HOC give her the space to remove it without ERG being able to accuse her directly.

    She did, after all, campaign as enthusiastically as she ever does, for Remain. And her Deal is better than Leaving on 29th March without one.
    History will show that TM achieved a Brexit deal with the 27 Countries of Europe and if brexit falls it will be the responsibility, ironically, of the ERG members
    My lack of respect for people like Andrew Bridgen, Mark Francois, and Boris Johnson is boundless.
    But do you have any more respect for either May, Hammond or Clark who have negotiated a deal that is simply a white flag that does nothing for us or for arch Remainers like Grieve, Soubry, and Greening who are openly trying to thwart the referendum. I don’t.

    The ERG can be rightly criticised for being utterly clueless on the type of Brexit they want and for failingto put in the hard work to prepare one but to put together a “deal” that is clearly worse than no deal is an abdication of responsibility.

    Both no deal and no Brexit are better than May’s “deal”.
    Nonsense. May's deal avoids most of the cliffedge crises that would arise from a no deal exit, and therefore is clearly better. You are right however that no Brexit is better still.
This discussion has been closed.