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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It’s time for the Tories to pick a candidate for Buckingham
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It’s time for the Tories to pick a candidate for Buckingham
Goodwill is the oil which lubricates the British constitution. The rules of parliament have been inherited from a time when governing was a gentlemen’s business and was expected to be carried out by gentlemen acting as gentlemen. Self-restraint and the awareness of when it becomes inappropriate to keep pushing a case are an essential aspect to enabling the system to work. Parliament is frequently criticised for being overly adversarial – and so it is – but that conflict is also bounded by an unwritten (and unwriteable) code of conduct.
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His position depends on Law. Amend one (or two) for 30d. Shazam .He's gone. There is no other lawful way.
In amending the rules when and how he has, then Bercow gives the impression of changing procedure not in order to give MPs more control in general but in order to influence the outcome of a specific issue – an impression that may be accurate
I hope people notice this bit, because given plenty of the opprobrium he gets is, of course, down to the hatred of him held by the executive, there is a tendency to downplay any criticism of him sometimes. It is possible to have some concern whether one thought the outcome was a good one or not. Doing the right thing for wrong reasons or the wrong way can open up to doing the wrong thing for the wrong reasons and wrong way as well.
I do think the ideas of revenge against Bercow mooted yesterday would be pointless and self defeating, but I don't see the issue with he or any Speaker being challenged by a major party - as precedents go it is not that strong a one as David notes, even if it is far more common than not. I believe the LDs initially said they'd stand a candidate in 2017 but decided against it, which I felt was a shame.
I'd need to think about it a bit more, but it feels like there has to be a better way of handling the role than just having major parties not stand against whoever gets picked for as long as they then choose to be reappointed if they do not piss off enough of the House.
Being Speaker is currently career death for any MP. Once their time is up they're expected to shuffle off to the Lords. You'd probably get a wider pool of suitable candidates if the role did not impose this onerous expectation.
But, hey, that might still be better than the current situation.
Mrs May broke a convention in pulling a business motion in December. Bercow redressed it in terms of timing. Good for him. It's Mrs May who will suffer the consequences of flouting conventions.
May fiddles while Brexit burns, but maybe that is what she intends.
With a snap election threatening, the Social Democrats reached an accord with the opposition Center Party and Liberals and its ally, the Greens"
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-11/sweden-social-democrats-reach-government-deal-aftonbladet-says
If Labour oppose a second EU referendum though the Tories take a 9% lead, in that sense the figures chime with those from YouGov if Labour fails to back another EU referendum with a Remain option.
It would be fun to watch the Tories run against the speaker, especially if the speaker won, as he probably would.
More calories than a McCheeseburger and laced with controversial palm oil - the unpalatable truth about that VERY right-on vegan sausage roll
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6583469/The-unpalatable-truth-right-vegan-sausage-roll.html
I think I would rather drink boxed wine than eat that.
Remain gets 46% to 41% for No Deal.
https://mobile.twitter.com/britainelects/status/1083871451013435392
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c1PTh5ufrSc&feature=youtu.be
I mean thanks for the numbers, keep up the good work guys but WTF
Selling Bernie remains free money.
https://twitter.com/tulsigabbard/status/649615636088365058?s=21
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1083290033082249217?s=21
The Conservative administration clearly hasn't learnt the lesson. Former Conservative MP Bercow isn't the governments man. All their previous attempts, in conjunction with the Tory tabloid press, to replace Bercow have ended in humiliation. Not least the shabby William Hague fiasco in 2015.
One might also add that governments past and present are quite happy to play nicely with conventions when it suits, but then will blithely cast them aside when it doesn't.
Of course the Conservatives might simply be in the first years of a new convention for them - The Speaker as an arm of Conservative policy and legislative administration.
That is not to say that further attempts to undermine Bercow by the government are a Good Thing. Nor that he's wrong to be making life difficult for the government.
However, I also don't think this pushback would be happening but for his ummm, other difficulties and narcissistic desire to take centre stage.
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1083290033082249217?s=21
Clearly Speaker Bercow is something of a force of nature in parliamentary terms but then so were many of his predecessors. The difference being the televising of parliament, the pervading nature of social media and the modern Speaker being more confident in their position, robust in their independence and more likely to flash a parliamentary two fingered salute at an overbearing government .... and then there was Speaker Martin !!
Help!
Grayling has agreed with me:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46847169
Is there some sort of counselling hotline available?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46847169
She comes back to the Commons on Friday as now required and says "I have heard the opinion of the House. I will resume meetings in Brussels in order to deliver a deal which can prove acceptable to the House." That's it. No specifics. No timetable. Clock runs down.
What ground have the forces of the Grieve-Bercow Axis gained?
Just look at their customers for evidence of the effects on a body. It is suicide by food.
Just have an election where all constituencies are contested, and the new House picks a Speaker.
If we vote down the deal, we either revoke, or leave without one. There is no time for further public consultation, and revocation would be politically impossible without it.
Therefore, the Remainers are driving us to no deal. Never before have so many rude remarks about the stupidity of politicians seemed so apt.
Didn't know we were planning to rewrite the Lisbon Treaty.
Mr. Meeks, indeed.
All changing it will do is allow us to potentially negotiate a later date..
Grayling is a fool.
https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1083997763304603648
Perhaps we can form a support group?
Does seem to be that her current approach is "Back my deal - or sack me. Oh - but you can't sack me, can you? Mwahahahahahaha......." The Brady bunch of letter writers might have accidentally played a blinder.....
Well, in fairness he did expel Livingstone before bringing him back again.
However, teaching the electorate that mainstream parties can and will ignore them when the little people have the temerity to disagree with the political class, who assumes the guise of masters and not servants of the public, will help fuel said extremes.
Of course, the far left needs no help, as it already occupies the Labour front bench, but the far right, almost certainly through a new party rather than occupation of the Conservatives, could benefit significantly.
[If we were to end up remaining, there would be ructions, but these would be diminished by holding a second referendum. Not doing so would be a worse course of action, in term's of public disenchantment with mainstream politics].
Edited extra bit: update, sounds like a gas leak.
https://twitter.com/GeorgKleine/status/1084008402152501249?s=19
Though we must also remember that the judges were later convicted of being Enemies of the People in the Court of Tabloid Opinion.
One can harbour real concerns about Brexit if it moves in either of the likely directions (Will Hard Brexit cause serious economic dislocation, or not? Will cancelling Brexit result in significant alienation of parts of the electorate, or not?) But ultimately, once Parliament finally decides what to do, or has an outcome forced upon it by circumstances because it cannot, then the fundamental divide - in England and Wales, anyway - seems likely to be Left/Right again. Between the part of the population that wants to be rid of the Conservatives, and the part of the population that considers Corbyn and Co to be beyond the pale (or, at the very least, a dire threat to their prosperity.)
Labour can theoretically resolve its problems more easily, by recruiting a leader with less baggage, but the Conservatives can offload their leader more easily, which gives them the chance to attempt to reform. Beyond that, my understanding is that the number of safe seats on the electoral map is larger than ever, and (as OGH has pointed out repeatedly) Labour is still struggling badly in Scotland.
If circumstances mean that a GE takes place this year, with wounds from the Brexit battle still raw, then maybe we might see a surprise? But if Parliament lasts the distance then it seems more likely, at this stage, that the outcome will see the Conservatives at the very least as the largest party, and possibly regaining a small majority.
This could, however, change very quickly if JC falls under a bus.
An obvious result would be Ukip MPs again. They could join the SNP in being contrary for the sake of it, and give Mr Eagles nightmares.
Farage got 8000 votes in Buckingham in the 2010 GE, I suspect he'd get many more after a revocation. In the referendum, they mirrored the final results.
If Bercow succeeds in his cunning plan, he's toast anyway.
The time for his excellent Labour deputy to succeed him has come. It should have happened some time ago.