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  • Roger said:

    As a left-field idea to break the deadlock in Parliament can anyone tell me why the following wouldn't work:

    Request an extension of Article 50 until the end of 2020 as an alternative to a transition but on the understanding that we park the backstop and instead immediately start negotiating the future trade agreement as would be negotiated during a transition.
    That removes the cliff edge for now, deals with the Irish border for now, continues payments for now while allowing talks to get onto where they belong. And if a future trade agreement can be reached in that time then the Irish backstop which is preventing Parliament from ratifying the deal becomes moot.

    Of course it requires unanimity from the other 27 but they could accept it as preferable to no deal.

    Left field idea; Divide the UK into several regions and allow each to hold their own referendum. Those who want to stay in the EU-London and Scotland for example stay while places like Stoke Hartlepool Thanet and Wales form their own union. They can set up their own obesity clinics for example
    Great idea.

    I'd just like to point out that Dorset is mainly populated (well, ok financed) by ex-Londoners now so should be considered part of the Greater London region in those refs.
    Hey, the Cotswolds voted Remain. Can we stay? We're pretty and our farm-produce is nice.
    Since when was Wanstead in the Cotswolds? :open_mouth:
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,780

    Omnium said:

    Health Service Journal Reports


    FINANCE AND EFFICIENCY
    Exclusive: Government cuts real terms NHS spending.
    10 January 2019

    The government will give the NHS £2bn less in real terms over the next five years than it previously said, having pushed back the planned funding growth, HSJ can reveal.

    Planning documents published by NHS England this afternoon state that its budget will increase by 3.1 per cent in real terms in the second year of the period, as opposed to the 3.6 per cent that was proposed in the government’s high profile announcement last summer.

    The largest annual increase, of 4.1 per cent, has instead now been reserved for the final year of the plan, in 2023-24, when an increase of 3.4 per cent was previously slated.

    This will result in cumulative real terms spending over the five years being around £2bn lower than previously envisaged. In 2018-19 prices, cumulative spending will be around £632bn over the five years, rather than £634bn.

    And improved waiting times announced by the NHS today despite treating many more patients and its winter
    And???
    Your link does say things like

    "being around £2bn lower than previously envisaged". It doesn't say who envisaged this.

    improved (reduced) waiting times can't hurt.
    It is £2bn less than the Governments high profile announcement last summer.

    The waiting time targets are still being missed.
    All these sorts of stats can have wobbles up and down - draw the line one way and it looks bad, draw it another and it looks great. Exclusive 'reveals' by the Health Service Journal wouldn't be my source of choice.

    On the face of it therefore I'd conclude that article as entirely unimportant, however a closer look might reveal that they are on to something, and simply don't have the ability to follow up.

  • Kamala Harris will be the Dem nominee & the 45th President of the United States.

    My first bet on her was in March 2017 at 80/1 odds.

    I've been putting between £50-100 on Harris every week for the last year at least.

  • Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Health Service Journal Reports


    FINANCE AND EFFICIENCY
    Exclusive: Government cuts real terms NHS spending.
    10 January 2019

    The government will give the NHS £2bn less in real terms over the next five years than it previously said, having pushed back the planned funding growth, HSJ can reveal.

    Planning documents published by NHS England this afternoon state that its budget will increase by 3.1 per cent in real terms in the second year of the period, as opposed to the 3.6 per cent that was proposed in the government’s high profile announcement last summer.

    The largest annual increase, of 4.1 per cent, has instead now been reserved for the final year of the plan, in 2023-24, when an increase of 3.4 per cent was previously slated.

    This will result in cumulative real terms spending over the five years being around £2bn lower than previously envisaged. In 2018-19 prices, cumulative spending will be around £632bn over the five years, rather than £634bn.

    And improved waiting times announced by the NHS today despite treating many more patients and its winter
    And???
    Your link does say things like

    "being around £2bn lower than previously envisaged". It doesn't say who envisaged this.

    improved (reduced) waiting times can't hurt.
    It is £2bn less than the Governments high profile announcement last summer.

    The waiting time targets are still being missed.
    All these sorts of stats can have wobbles up and down - draw the line one way and it looks bad, draw it another and it looks great. Exclusive 'reveals' by the Health Service Journal wouldn't be my source of choice.

    On the face of it therefore I'd conclude that article as entirely unimportant, however a closer look might reveal that they are on to something, and simply don't have the ability to follow up.

    Health spending in England for 2019/2020 is £127 billions. In that 2 billion less is petty cash
  • Kamala Harris will be the Dem nominee & the 45th President of the United States.

    My first bet on her was in March 2017 at 80/1 odds.

    I've been putting between £50-100 on Harris every week for the last year at least.

    *46th* Lol!
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,780

    Kamala Harris will be the Dem nominee & the 45th President of the United States.

    My first bet on her was in March 2017 at 80/1 odds.

    I've been putting between £50-100 on Harris every week for the last year at least.

    Good first post if she wins! (Welcome btw)

  • Kamala Harris will be the Dem nominee & the 45th President of the United States.

    My first bet on her was in March 2017 at 80/1 odds.

    I've been putting between £50-100 on Harris every week for the last year at least.

    *46th* Lol!
    Welcome to PB
  • Beto O' Rourke will be her VP.

    And Arizona, Texas, North Carolina, Florida, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa will all go blue...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    Interesting bit at the end. Ministers may resign to vote against if defeat looks certain. Which it does. Not sure of the veracity, but it is possible.*

    * As is pretty much anything.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Welcome to PB, your majesty. :smiley:
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Kamala Harris will be the Dem nominee & the 45th President of the United States.

    My first bet on her was in March 2017 at 80/1 odds.

    I've been putting between £50-100 on Harris every week for the last year at least.

    Just checking, you didn't used to go by the name of Cromwell and have firm views on Marco Rubio's nomination chances did you?
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951

    Kamala Harris will be the Dem nominee & the 45th President of the United States.

    My first bet on her was in March 2017 at 80/1 odds.

    I've been putting between £50-100 on Harris every week for the last year at least.

    I hope it's money you can afford to lose!

    Welcome to PB!
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Welcome to PB to HRH Zog.

    Harris has something about her for sure.

    The moron in the White House won’t much fancy taking her on.
  • I was going to put 10K on Donald Trump for President at amazing odds, but I bottled it at the last minute.

    I'm not letting that happen again!
    kyf_100 said:

    Kamala Harris will be the Dem nominee & the 45th President of the United States.

    My first bet on her was in March 2017 at 80/1 odds.

    I've been putting between £50-100 on Harris every week for the last year at least.

    I hope it's money you can afford to lose!

    Welcome to PB!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631

    Beto O' Rourke will be her VP.

    And Arizona, Texas, North Carolina, Florida, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa will all go blue...

    Welcome to PB, Mr Zog. Good luck with your predictions and bets!
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    edited January 2019
    Alistair said:

    Kamala Harris will be the Dem nominee & the 45th President of the United States.

    My first bet on her was in March 2017 at 80/1 odds.

    I've been putting between £50-100 on Harris every week for the last year at least.

    Just checking, you didn't used to go by the name of Cromwell and have firm views on Marco Rubio's nomination chances did you?
    Lol

    Still can’t believe he became favourite after coming third in Iowa!
  • Mortimer said:

    Alistair said:

    Kamala Harris will be the Dem nominee & the 45th President of the United States.

    My first bet on her was in March 2017 at 80/1 odds.

    I've been putting between £50-100 on Harris every week for the last year at least.

    Just checking, you didn't used to go by the name of Cromwell and have firm views on Marco Rubio's nomination chances did you?
    Lol

    Still can’t believe he became favourite after coming third in Iowa!
    I'm forever grateful for that.

    Allowed to me get out of my huge red on Trump being the nominee.
  • Roger said:

    As a left-field idea to break the deadlock in Parliament can anyone tell me why the following wouldn't work:

    Request an extension of Article 50 until the end of 2020 as an alternative to a transition but on the understanding that we park the backstop and instead immediately start negotiating the future trade agreement as would be negotiated during a transition.
    That removes the cliff edge for now, deals with the Irish border for now, continues payments for now while allowing talks to get onto where they belong. And if a future trade agreement can be reached in that time then the Irish backstop which is preventing Parliament from ratifying the deal becomes moot.

    Of course it requires unanimity from the other 27 but they could accept it as preferable to no deal.

    Left field idea; Divide the UK into several regions and allow each to hold their own referendum. Those who want to stay in the EU-London and Scotland for example stay while places like Stoke Hartlepool Thanet and Wales form their own union. They can set up their own obesity clinics for example
    Great idea.

    I'd just like to point out that Dorset is mainly populated (well, ok financed) by ex-Londoners now so should be considered part of the Greater London region in those refs.
    Hey, the Cotswolds voted Remain. Can we stay? We're pretty and our farm-produce is nice.
    Since when was Wanstead in the Cotswolds? :open_mouth:
    Well, it could be I moved....or Wanstead did. :-)

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,199
    PPP poll of the swing state of North Carolina, which went for Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2016, has Biden polling best against the President, leading him by 5% while Harris gets a tie.

    Biden 49% Trump 44%
    Sanders 48% Trump 45%
    Warren 46% Trump 46%
    Harris 45% Trump 45%
    O'Rouke 45% Trump 46%
    Booker 45% Trump 46%

    https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/polls/north-carolina-looks-like-battleground-once-again-for-2020/
  • Alistair said:

    Kamala Harris will be the Dem nominee & the 45th President of the United States.

    My first bet on her was in March 2017 at 80/1 odds.

    I've been putting between £50-100 on Harris every week for the last year at least.

    Just checking, you didn't used to go by the name of Cromwell and have firm views on Marco Rubio's nomination chances did you?
    No.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    Mortimer said:

    Alistair said:

    Kamala Harris will be the Dem nominee & the 45th President of the United States.

    My first bet on her was in March 2017 at 80/1 odds.

    I've been putting between £50-100 on Harris every week for the last year at least.

    Just checking, you didn't used to go by the name of Cromwell and have firm views on Marco Rubio's nomination chances did you?
    Lol

    Still can’t believe he became favourite after coming third in Iowa!
    That was one of the most amusing moments of the last US elections. Great for betting strategies though!
  • Kamala Harris will be the Dem nominee & the 45th President of the United States.

    My first bet on her was in March 2017 at 80/1 odds.

    I've been putting between £50-100 on Harris every week for the last year at least.

    *46th* Lol!
    Welcome to PB
    Many Thanks
  • Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Cameron must be one of the best assignments for the VIP protection squad. Much easier to work with a former minister who does very little work and travel, than a current one who's got 20 meetings a day from 6am until midnight.
    Also despite the EU referendum and coalition, I don’t think he is targeted in the way thatcher or Blair was / are many years after they left power.
    Indeed. Gordon Brown or John Major would also be good postings. They, like DC, do a few well paid lectures and speeches but not a lot else. Blair, on the other hand, probably still does more travelling than the current foreign secretary, and still gets plenty of credible threats made against him. At least it's not the constant threats that it was only a couple of decades ago under the Troubles.

    For retired senior politicians, it must be a right pain the arse to have a couple of policemen follow you absolutely everywhere, and certainly for former PMs knowing that it will always be the case. DC could well have 40 years left in him.
    Once met a guy who was security for TB and Cherie when he was PM. He quite enjoyed the job.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,199
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Harris is yet another coastal liberal.

    If the Democrats want to win the Electoral College and beat Trump they need to find candidate who can appeal to blue collar workers in the rustbelt not build up even bigger leads in California

    Biden/Klobuchar would be a very strong ticket
    Klobuchar is certainly a better addition to the ticket than Warren or Harris
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,199
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Cameron must be one of the best assignments for the VIP protection squad. Much easier to work with a former minister who does very little work and travel, than a current one who's got 20 meetings a day from 6am until midnight.
    Also despite the EU referendum and coalition, I don’t think he is targeted in the way thatcher or Blair was / are many years after they left power.
    Indeed. Gordon Brown or John Major would also be good postings. They, like DC, do a few well paid lectures and speeches but not a lot else. Blair, on the other hand, probably still does more travelling than the current foreign secretary, and still gets plenty of credible threats made against him. At least it's not the constant threats that it was only a couple of decades ago under the Troubles.

    For retired senior politicians, it must be a right pain the arse to have a couple of policemen follow you absolutely everywhere, and certainly for former PMs knowing that it will always be the case. DC could well have 40 years left in him.
    I don't know, I expect some PMs like Blair and Heath liked the ego boost of still having a protection squad
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    HYUFD said:

    PPP poll of the swing state of North Carolina, which went for Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2016, has Biden polling best against the President, leading him by 5% while Harris gets a tie.

    Biden 49% Trump 44%
    Sanders 48% Trump 45%
    Warren 46% Trump 46%
    Harris 45% Trump 45%
    O'Rouke 45% Trump 46%
    Booker 45% Trump 46%

    https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/polls/north-carolina-looks-like-battleground-once-again-for-2020/

    I am not sure that shows much other than 45% will always vote Republican and 45% for any Democrat and that of the remaining 10%, a few have heard of Biden and Sanders.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,199
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    PPP poll of the swing state of North Carolina, which went for Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2016, has Biden polling best against the President, leading him by 5% while Harris gets a tie.

    Biden 49% Trump 44%
    Sanders 48% Trump 45%
    Warren 46% Trump 46%
    Harris 45% Trump 45%
    O'Rouke 45% Trump 46%
    Booker 45% Trump 46%

    https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/polls/north-carolina-looks-like-battleground-once-again-for-2020/

    I am not sure that shows much other than 45% will always vote Republican and 45% for any Democrat and that of the remaining 10%, a few have heard of Biden and Sanders.
    It does at least confirm Biden is the Democrats best bet, he is the only Democrat who gets Trump under 45% in North Carolina and he matches the 49% Obama got in 2008 when he narrowly won the state over John McCain
  • This piece is a bit of a job lot but fresh snippets from both Labour and Conservative sides on the pist MV senarios.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/10/theresa-may-contacts-union-leaders-for-brexit-deal-support-from-labour
  • WTF is the point of leaving but being permanently tied to the rules and with no say in them?

    So if a repeat of something like the Working Time Directive comes through, perhaps with a Fremch inspired 35hr limit, we would automatically adopt it, have no say and no opt outs?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,281

    Mortimer said:

    Alistair said:

    Kamala Harris will be the Dem nominee & the 45th President of the United States.

    My first bet on her was in March 2017 at 80/1 odds.

    I've been putting between £50-100 on Harris every week for the last year at least.

    Just checking, you didn't used to go by the name of Cromwell and have firm views on Marco Rubio's nomination chances did you?
    Lol

    Still can’t believe he became favourite after coming third in Iowa!
    I'm forever grateful for that.

    Allowed to me get out of my huge red on Trump ....
    That another novel PB euphemism ?

  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Cameron must be one of the best assignments for the VIP protection squad. Much easier to work with a former minister who does very little work and travel, than a current one who's got 20 meetings a day from 6am until midnight.
    Also despite the EU referendum and coalition, I don’t think he is targeted in the way thatcher or Blair was / are many years after they left power.
    Indeed. Gordon Brown or John Major would also be good postings. They, like DC, do a few well paid lectures and speeches but not a lot else. Blair, on the other hand, probably still does more travelling than the current foreign secretary, and still gets plenty of credible threats made against him. At least it's not the constant threats that it was only a couple of decades ago under the Troubles.

    For retired senior politicians, it must be a right pain the arse to have a couple of policemen follow you absolutely everywhere, and certainly for former PMs knowing that it will always be the case. DC could well have 40 years left in him.
    Once met a guy who was security for TB and Cherie when he was PM. He quite enjoyed the job.
    I once shared a Chinook ride with TB in Basra. He could definitely do "normal" when he had to. His security detail there was a phalanx of grim faced Solid Snake types with no chill whatsoever.
  • Nigelb said:

    Mortimer said:

    Alistair said:

    Kamala Harris will be the Dem nominee & the 45th President of the United States.

    My first bet on her was in March 2017 at 80/1 odds.

    I've been putting between £50-100 on Harris every week for the last year at least.

    Just checking, you didn't used to go by the name of Cromwell and have firm views on Marco Rubio's nomination chances did you?
    Lol

    Still can’t believe he became favourite after coming third in Iowa!
    I'm forever grateful for that.

    Allowed to me get out of my huge red on Trump ....
    That another novel PB euphemism ?

    Behave.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    WTF is the point of leaving but being permanently tied to the rules and with no say in them?

    So if a repeat of something like the Working Time Directive comes through, perhaps with a Fremch inspired 35hr limit, we would automatically adopt it, have no say and no opt outs?
    Permanently? I thought no parliament could bind its successor?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,281
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    PPP poll of the swing state of North Carolina, which went for Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2016, has Biden polling best against the President, leading him by 5% while Harris gets a tie.

    Biden 49% Trump 44%
    Sanders 48% Trump 45%
    Warren 46% Trump 46%
    Harris 45% Trump 45%
    O'Rouke 45% Trump 46%
    Booker 45% Trump 46%

    https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/polls/north-carolina-looks-like-battleground-once-again-for-2020/

    I am not sure that shows much other than 45% will always vote Republican and 45% for any Democrat and that of the remaining 10%, a few have heard of Biden and Sanders.
    It does at least confirm Biden is the Democrats best bet, he is the only Democrat who gets Trump under 45% in North Carolina and he matches the 49% Obama got in 2008 when he narrowly won the state over John McCain
    FFS, it’s nearly two years until the election, and you are treating polling now as definitive.
    ... & Biden might not even run, though I think he will.

    (I have money on Harris, but I’m not foolish enough to be certain about the nominee. It’s always good to selectively hedge at this point, particularly if you can get long odds on realistic candidates.)
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    Kamala Harris will be the Dem nominee & the 45th President of the United States.

    My first bet on her was in March 2017 at 80/1 odds.

    I've been putting between £50-100 on Harris every week for the last year at least.

    Just checking, you didn't used to go by the name of Cromwell and have firm views on Marco Rubio's nomination chances did you?
    No.
    Thumbs up. But learn from me I would be a richer man if I had greened out my POTUS position in 2016 rather than letting my big, skillfully constructed, Hillary bet ride.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    WTF is the point of leaving but being permanently tied to the rules and with no say in them?

    So if a repeat of something like the Working Time Directive comes through, perhaps with a Fremch inspired 35hr limit, we would automatically adopt it, have no say and no opt outs?
    Yeah, imagine if people only worked 35 hours/week. That would be fucked.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,876

    WTF is the point of leaving but being permanently tied to the rules and with no say in them?

    So if a repeat of something like the Working Time Directive comes through, perhaps with a Fremch inspired 35hr limit, we would automatically adopt it, have no say and no opt outs?
    Its crazy but the government is giving desperate a whole new dimension at the moment.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Nigelb said:

    Mortimer said:

    Alistair said:

    Kamala Harris will be the Dem nominee & the 45th President of the United States.

    My first bet on her was in March 2017 at 80/1 odds.

    I've been putting between £50-100 on Harris every week for the last year at least.

    Just checking, you didn't used to go by the name of Cromwell and have firm views on Marco Rubio's nomination chances did you?
    Lol

    Still can’t believe he became favourite after coming third in Iowa!
    I'm forever grateful for that.

    Allowed to me get out of my huge red on Trump ....
    That another novel PB euphemism ?

    TSE let emotion cloud his machine.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,199
    edited January 2019
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    PPP poll of the swing state of North Carolina, which went for Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2016, has Biden polling best against the President, leading him by 5% while Harris gets a tie.

    Biden 49% Trump 44%
    Sanders 48% Trump 45%
    Warren 46% Trump 46%
    Harris 45% Trump 45%
    O'Rouke 45% Trump 46%
    Booker 45% Trump 46%

    https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/polls/north-carolina-looks-like-battleground-once-again-for-2020/

    I am not sure that shows much other than 45% will always vote Republican and 45% for any Democrat and that of the remaining 10%, a few have heard of Biden and Sanders.
    It does at least confirm Biden is the Democrats best bet, he is the only Democrat who gets Trump under 45% in North Carolina and he matches the 49% Obama got in 2008 when he narrowly won the state over John McCain
    FFS, it’s nearly two years until the election, and you are treating polling now as definitive.
    ... & Biden might not even run, though I think he will.

    (I have money on Harris, but I’m not foolish enough to be certain about the nominee. It’s always good to selectively hedge at this point, particularly if you can get long odds on realistic candidates.)
    The very essence of this site is polling so if you don't like polls go elsewhere. In any case the Democrats need a candidate who can appeal to rustbelt voters who voted for Trump and won him the Electoral College, Biden best fits the bill
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631

    WTF is the point of leaving but being permanently tied to the rules and with no say in them?

    So if a repeat of something like the Working Time Directive comes through, perhaps with a Fremch inspired 35hr limit, we would automatically adopt it, have no say and no opt outs?
    Yes it's pointless. It could also become a real problem if, as myself and many others expect, there's a bunch of EU legislation aimed squarely and deliberately at the UK from the day after we actually leave the political side. All part of their strategy to ensure no-one else dares to take the same course in future.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,134
    edited January 2019
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Cameron must be one of the best assignments for the VIP protection squad. Much easier to work with a former minister who does very little work and travel, than a current one who's got 20 meetings a day from 6am until midnight.
    Also despite the EU referendum and coalition, I don’t think he is targeted in the way thatcher or Blair was / are many years after they left power.
    Indeed. Gordon Brown or John Major would also be good postings. They, like DC, do a few well paid lectures and speeches but not a lot else. Blair, on the other hand, probably still does more travelling than the current foreign secretary, and still gets plenty of credible threats made against him. At least it's not the constant threats that it was only a couple of decades ago under the Troubles.

    For retired senior politicians, it must be a right pain the arse to have a couple of policemen follow you absolutely everywhere, and certainly for former PMs knowing that it will always be the case. DC could well have 40 years left in him.
    Nah you don’t want grumpy Gordon as you don’t get the jollies to Costa Rica and with captain underpants you better really really really like cricket.

    I have told the story on here when I caused a security alert when I knocked over Dennis thatcher. At the time I did think, this had to be a bit shit that even as an old duffer pottering around you are followed by cars full of heavies. Dennis was very understanding and really rather charming given the situation.
  • RobD said:

    WTF is the point of leaving but being permanently tied to the rules and with no say in them?

    So if a repeat of something like the Working Time Directive comes through, perhaps with a Fremch inspired 35hr limit, we would automatically adopt it, have no say and no opt outs?
    Permanently? I thought no parliament could bind its successor?
    It can if it is part of an international agreement.

    While the EU have said that the agreement is final that means they're not willing to give us any more concessions. If we voluntarily agree to prostrate ourselves further binding ourselves to them more than they asked for I'm sure they'd be happy to facilitate that by adding a legally binding annex to the withdrawal agreement binding us into honouring that.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,876
    Sandpit said:

    WTF is the point of leaving but being permanently tied to the rules and with no say in them?

    So if a repeat of something like the Working Time Directive comes through, perhaps with a Fremch inspired 35hr limit, we would automatically adopt it, have no say and no opt outs?
    Yes it's pointless. It could also become a real problem if, as myself and many others expect, there's a bunch of EU legislation aimed squarely and deliberately at the UK from the day after we actually leave the political side. All part of their strategy to ensure no-one else dares to take the same course in future.
    Its not even all that obvious how it would be possible to be honest. Most of the EU legislation in these areas is regulatory these days and it is of course tied into EU structures and institutions. Are we going to ape all these as well?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Sandpit said:

    Mortimer said:

    Alistair said:

    Kamala Harris will be the Dem nominee & the 45th President of the United States.

    My first bet on her was in March 2017 at 80/1 odds.

    I've been putting between £50-100 on Harris every week for the last year at least.

    Just checking, you didn't used to go by the name of Cromwell and have firm views on Marco Rubio's nomination chances did you?
    Lol

    Still can’t believe he became favourite after coming third in Iowa!
    That was one of the most amusing moments of the last US elections. Great for betting strategies though!
    A great Moment of Unity on PB. Except for Cromwell.

    It was the moment where I basically took my profits and tapped out of the market though. It was just all staggeringly barmy, Jeb still @10 or so, Rubio favourite it was so dizzingly wrong I feared I was simply missing something obvious.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    RobD said:

    WTF is the point of leaving but being permanently tied to the rules and with no say in them?

    So if a repeat of something like the Working Time Directive comes through, perhaps with a Fremch inspired 35hr limit, we would automatically adopt it, have no say and no opt outs?
    Permanently? I thought no parliament could bind its successor?
    It can if it is part of an international agreement.

    While the EU have said that the agreement is final that means they're not willing to give us any more concessions. If we voluntarily agree to prostrate ourselves further binding ourselves to them more than they asked for I'm sure they'd be happy to facilitate that by adding a legally binding annex to the withdrawal agreement binding us into honouring that.
    Ah, the law is being used to direct negotiations for the future relationship? HMG can just say they tried...
  • Dura_Ace said:

    WTF is the point of leaving but being permanently tied to the rules and with no say in them?

    So if a repeat of something like the Working Time Directive comes through, perhaps with a Fremch inspired 35hr limit, we would automatically adopt it, have no say and no opt outs?
    Yeah, imagine if people only worked 35 hours/week. That would be fucked.
    Yes it would. Try competing with Asia while only working a maximum 35 hours. You think because you're European you're entitled to work less and compete adequately with Asians?
  • Dura_Ace said:

    WTF is the point of leaving but being permanently tied to the rules and with no say in them?

    So if a repeat of something like the Working Time Directive comes through, perhaps with a Fremch inspired 35hr limit, we would automatically adopt it, have no say and no opt outs?
    Yeah, imagine if people only worked 35 hours/week. That would be fucked.
    If I only worked 35 hours / week my business would be f##ked.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    edited January 2019

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Cameron must be one of the best assignments for the VIP protection squad. Much easier to work with a former minister who does very little work and travel, than a current one who's got 20 meetings a day from 6am until midnight.
    Also despite the EU referendum and coalition, I don’t think he is targeted in the way thatcher or Blair was / are many years after they left power.
    Indeed. Gordon Brown or John Major would also be good postings. They, like DC, do a few well paid lectures and speeches but not a lot else. Blair, on the other hand, probably still does more travelling than the current foreign secretary, and still gets plenty of credible threats made against him. At least it's not the constant threats that it was only a couple of decades ago under the Troubles.

    For retired senior politicians, it must be a right pain the arse to have a couple of policemen follow you absolutely everywhere, and certainly for former PMs knowing that it will always be the case. DC could well have 40 years left in him.
    Nah you don’t want grumpy Gordon as you don’t get the jollies to Costa Rica and with captain underpants you better really really really like cricket.

    I have told the story on here when I caused a security alert when I knocked over Dennis thatcher. At the time I did think, this had to be a bit shit that even as an old duffer pottering around you are followed by cars full of heavies. Dennis was very understanding and really rather charming given the situation.
    LOL okay. If I ever go for a change of career and find myself in the unit of the VIP protection squad that look after former PMs, I'll be sure to put in a request for Mr Cameron ;)

    I recall under Blair watching the Met get his car through the rush hour traffic out of London of an evening. Seriously impressive setup they had, using a minor road (not A4 or A40) with a lot of traffic lights, obviously in control of the timings and alternating between right side and wrong side of the road between each set of lights. Convoy was three cars and half a dozen running bikes, and the cars never came close to stopping even in though it was the middle of the rush hour. Quite amazing to watch, you could certainly tell they'd done it a few times before!
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    WTF is the point of leaving but being permanently tied to the rules and with no say in them?

    So if a repeat of something like the Working Time Directive comes through, perhaps with a Fremch inspired 35hr limit, we would automatically adopt it, have no say and no opt outs?
    Permanently? I thought no parliament could bind its successor?
    It can if it is part of an international agreement.

    While the EU have said that the agreement is final that means they're not willing to give us any more concessions. If we voluntarily agree to prostrate ourselves further binding ourselves to them more than they asked for I'm sure they'd be happy to facilitate that by adding a legally binding annex to the withdrawal agreement binding us into honouring that.
    Ah, the law is being used to direct negotiations for the future relationship? HMG can just say they tried...
    Let's imagine for a second Parliament agrees to approve the WDA on condition of UK honouring EU environment and employment laws. Then to be "helpful" Barnier says we can facilitate this, sign this legally binding annex to be added to the WDA. HMG can hardly not sign it.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,876

    Dura_Ace said:

    WTF is the point of leaving but being permanently tied to the rules and with no say in them?

    So if a repeat of something like the Working Time Directive comes through, perhaps with a Fremch inspired 35hr limit, we would automatically adopt it, have no say and no opt outs?
    Yeah, imagine if people only worked 35 hours/week. That would be fucked.
    If I only worked 35 hours / week my business would be f##ked.
    Thursdays, Fridays and the weekend off would be nice though. So long as someone paid me.
  • Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Cameron must be one of the best assignments for the VIP protection squad. Much easier to work with a former minister who does very little work and travel, than a current one who's got 20 meetings a day from 6am until midnight.
    Also despite the EU referendum and coalition, I don’t think he is targeted in the way thatcher or Blair was / are many years after they left power.
    Indeed. Gordon Brown or John Major would also be good postings. They, like DC, do a few well paid lectures and speeches but not a lot else. Blair, on the other hand, probably still does more travelling than the current foreign secretary, and still gets plenty of credible threats made against him. At least it's not the constant threats that it was only a couple of decades ago under the Troubles.

    For retired senior politicians, it must be a right pain the arse to have a couple of policemen follow you absolutely everywhere, and certainly for former PMs knowing that it will always be the case. DC could well have 40 years left in him.
    Nah you don’t want grumpy Gordon as you don’t get the jollies to Costa Rica and with captain underpants you better really really really like cricket.

    I have told the story on here when I caused a security alert when I knocked over Dennis thatcher. At the time I did think, this had to be a bit shit that even as an old duffer pottering around you are followed by cars full of heavies. Dennis was very understanding and really rather charming given the situation.
    LOL okay. If I ever go for a change of career and find myself in the unit of the VIP protection squad that look after former PMs, I'll be sure to put in a request for Mr Cameron ;)
    Well personally I like the cricket & perhaps I could convince John that he might like to do the Caribbean, Australia and New Zealand trips when England play over there.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    WTF is the point of leaving but being permanently tied to the rules and with no say in them?

    So if a repeat of something like the Working Time Directive comes through, perhaps with a Fremch inspired 35hr limit, we would automatically adopt it, have no say and no opt outs?
    Permanently? I thought no parliament could bind its successor?
    It can if it is part of an international agreement.

    While the EU have said that the agreement is final that means they're not willing to give us any more concessions. If we voluntarily agree to prostrate ourselves further binding ourselves to them more than they asked for I'm sure they'd be happy to facilitate that by adding a legally binding annex to the withdrawal agreement binding us into honouring that.
    Ah, the law is being used to direct negotiations for the future relationship? HMG can just say they tried...
    Let's imagine for a second Parliament agrees to approve the WDA on condition of UK honouring EU environment and employment laws. Then to be "helpful" Barnier says we can facilitate this, sign this legally binding annex to be added to the WDA. HMG can hardly not sign it.
    I thought there could be nothing legally binding about the future relationship in the withdrawal agreement due to sequencing?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    How many would it lose?

    I’m all for both environmental and employment protection but I thought the whole point was to take back control?
    We can take back some or none, given opposition to no deal.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208

    WTF is the point of leaving but being permanently tied to the rules and with no say in them?

    So if a repeat of something like the Working Time Directive comes through, perhaps with a Fremch inspired 35hr limit, we would automatically adopt it, have no say and no opt outs?
    Welcome to rule-taking Brexit. The point I was trying to make on the previous thread, is that if all Leave options are worse than Remain, but we have to Leave anyway, it becomes a damage limitation exercise. So you take the rules. This doesn't have anything much to do with my opinion of Brexit. If Leavers were able to articulate real upsides to Brexit, damage limitation wouldn't be necessary and we would probably end up in a Hard Brexit. Absent Brexit upsides, we'll probably end up in an SM+CU arrangement.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Harris is yet another coastal liberal.

    If the Democrats want to win the Electoral College and beat Trump they need to find candidate who can appeal to blue collar workers in the rustbelt not build up even bigger leads in California

    Biden/Klobuchar would be a very strong ticket
    Klobuchar is certainly a better addition to the ticket than Warren or Harris
    I doin't know anything about Klobouchar but have seen you and EiT plugging her, usually with a tinge of irony. What's unusual about her?
  • DavidL said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    WTF is the point of leaving but being permanently tied to the rules and with no say in them?

    So if a repeat of something like the Working Time Directive comes through, perhaps with a Fremch inspired 35hr limit, we would automatically adopt it, have no say and no opt outs?
    Yeah, imagine if people only worked 35 hours/week. That would be fucked.
    If I only worked 35 hours / week my business would be f##ked.
    Thursdays, Fridays and the weekend off would be nice though. So long as someone paid me.
    Back in the day when IT contractors could play the old tax system I know a lot of programmers who did exactly that. Worked Mon-Thurs on contract and then nominally did some work for somebody else on a Friday, but they really didn’t do squat.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    FF43 said:

    WTF is the point of leaving but being permanently tied to the rules and with no say in them?

    So if a repeat of something like the Working Time Directive comes through, perhaps with a Fremch inspired 35hr limit, we would automatically adopt it, have no say and no opt outs?
    Welcome to rule-taking Brexit. The point I was trying to make on the previous thread, is that if all Leave options are worse than Remain, but we have to Leave anyway, it becomes a damage limitation exercise. So you take the rules. This doesn't have anything much to do with my opinion of Brexit. If Leavers were able to articulate real upsides to Brexit, damage limitation wouldn't be necessary and we would probably end up in a Hard Brexit. Absent Brexit upsides, we'll probably end up in an SM+CU arrangement.
    Rule-taking Brexit at the instance of remainers who are seeking to block the current deal, apparently.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    DavidL said:

    WTF is the point of leaving but being permanently tied to the rules and with no say in them?

    So if a repeat of something like the Working Time Directive comes through, perhaps with a Fremch inspired 35hr limit, we would automatically adopt it, have no say and no opt outs?
    Its crazy but the government is giving desperate a whole new dimension at the moment.
    Persons analysis is not entirely correct I think

    I'm not sure it does commit us indefinitely to implement EVERYTHING the EU might come up with, simply not to lower standards after exit. The first bit of the amendment text is somewhat flowery aspirational language, the second part is the substance not to lower existing standards...

    Here is the text - it gets the lowest hanging Labour brexit vote fruit

    https://twitter.com/CarolineFlintMP/status/1083316244609155072?s=19
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    PPP poll of the swing state of North Carolina, which went for Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2016, has Biden polling best against the President, leading him by 5% while Harris gets a tie.

    Biden 49% Trump 44%
    Sanders 48% Trump 45%
    Warren 46% Trump 46%
    Harris 45% Trump 45%
    O'Rouke 45% Trump 46%
    Booker 45% Trump 46%

    https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/polls/north-carolina-looks-like-battleground-once-again-for-2020/

    I am not sure that shows much other than 45% will always vote Republican and 45% for any Democrat and that of the remaining 10%, a few have heard of Biden and Sanders.
    Foxy, all it shows is HYUFD's blind faith in all polls at all times.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631

    Dura_Ace said:

    WTF is the point of leaving but being permanently tied to the rules and with no say in them?

    So if a repeat of something like the Working Time Directive comes through, perhaps with a Fremch inspired 35hr limit, we would automatically adopt it, have no say and no opt outs?
    Yeah, imagine if people only worked 35 hours/week. That would be fucked.
    Yes it would. Try competing with Asia while only working a maximum 35 hours. You think because you're European you're entitled to work less and compete adequately with Asians?
    The problem is that a lot of Europeans think exactly like that!
  • New thread....
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    Harris seems personable and has a lot of drive. Definite positives. But she's very liberal - fine by me, but not sure how that will carry in Indiana.
  • NEW THREAD

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    Personally, I've backed Amy Klobuchar to win POTUS 2020 at odds of 33/1 (currently best-priced at around 25/1). For my money she's the feistiest of all the Democratic front runners, a characteristic which should hold her in good stead against Trump.

    She's not feisty. She's dull. She has the least interesting Twitter feed in the history of twitter feeds. The highlight of her questioning of Kavanaugh was getting an answer out of him that it looked like she was storing up for some devastating attack that she had up her sleeve ready for the big reveal, but then she proceeded to reveal... nothing.

    Congratulations to you and OGH at getting on at such good odds, but I don't think she's got it.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Cameron must be one of the best assignments for the VIP protection squad. Much easier to work with a former minister who does very little work and travel, than a current one who's got 20 meetings a day from 6am until midnight.
    Also despite the EU referendum and coalition, I don’t think he is targeted in the way thatcher or Blair was / are many years after they left power.
    Indeed. Gordon Brown or John Major would also be good postings. They, like DC, do a few well paid lectures and speeches but not a lot else. Blair, on the other hand, probably still does more travelling than the current foreign secretary, and still gets plenty of credible threats made against him. At least it's not the constant threats that it was only a couple of decades ago under the Troubles.

    For retired senior politicians, it must be a right pain the arse to have a couple of policemen follow you absolutely everywhere, and certainly for former PMs knowing that it will always be the case. DC could well have 40 years left in him.
    Nah you don’t want grumpy Gordon as you don’t get the jollies to Costa Rica and with captain underpants you better really really really like cricket.

    I have told the story on here when I caused a security alert when I knocked over Dennis thatcher. At the time I did think, this had to be a bit shit that even as an old duffer pottering around you are followed by cars full of heavies. Dennis was very understanding and really rather charming given the situation.
    LOL okay. If I ever go for a change of career and find myself in the unit of the VIP protection squad that look after former PMs, I'll be sure to put in a request for Mr Cameron ;)
    Well personally I like the cricket & perhaps I could convince John that he might like to do the Caribbean, Australia and New Zealand trips when England play over there.
    Ha, good thinking! A full Ashes tour is definitely on the bucket list, once I complete the F1 tour. Baku and probably Hungary races this year.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    RobD said:

    FF43 said:

    WTF is the point of leaving but being permanently tied to the rules and with no say in them?

    So if a repeat of something like the Working Time Directive comes through, perhaps with a Fremch inspired 35hr limit, we would automatically adopt it, have no say and no opt outs?
    Welcome to rule-taking Brexit. The point I was trying to make on the previous thread, is that if all Leave options are worse than Remain, but we have to Leave anyway, it becomes a damage limitation exercise. So you take the rules. This doesn't have anything much to do with my opinion of Brexit. If Leavers were able to articulate real upsides to Brexit, damage limitation wouldn't be necessary and we would probably end up in a Hard Brexit. Absent Brexit upsides, we'll probably end up in an SM+CU arrangement.
    Rule-taking Brexit at the instance of remainers who are seeking to block the current deal, apparently.
    No .The current deal won't be the last word. It simply buys a two year extension. The permanent rule taking bit cones later.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742

    Dura_Ace said:

    WTF is the point of leaving but being permanently tied to the rules and with no say in them?

    So if a repeat of something like the Working Time Directive comes through, perhaps with a Fremch inspired 35hr limit, we would automatically adopt it, have no say and no opt outs?
    Yeah, imagine if people only worked 35 hours/week. That would be fucked.
    Yes it would. Try competing with Asia while only working a maximum 35 hours. You think because you're European you're entitled to work less and compete adequately with Asians?
    Well the Germans and French do have substantially higher productivity, and plenty of exports. Maybe they just work a lot smarter than Britons.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    PPP poll of the swing state of North Carolina, which went for Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2016, has Biden polling best against the President, leading him by 5% while Harris gets a tie.

    Biden 49% Trump 44%
    Sanders 48% Trump 45%
    Warren 46% Trump 46%
    Harris 45% Trump 45%
    O'Rouke 45% Trump 46%
    Booker 45% Trump 46%

    https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/polls/north-carolina-looks-like-battleground-once-again-for-2020/

    I am not sure that shows much other than 45% will always vote Republican and 45% for any Democrat and that of the remaining 10%, a few have heard of Biden and Sanders.
    It does at least confirm Biden is the Democrats best bet, he is the only Democrat who gets Trump under 45% in North Carolina and he matches the 49% Obama got in 2008 when he narrowly won the state over John McCain
    FFS, it’s nearly two years until the election, and you are treating polling now as definitive.
    ... & Biden might not even run, though I think he will.

    (I have money on Harris, but I’m not foolish enough to be certain about the nominee. It’s always good to selectively hedge at this point, particularly if you can get long odds on realistic candidates.)
    The very essence of this site is polling so if you don't like polls go elsewhere. In any case the Democrats need a candidate who can appeal to rustbelt voters who voted for Trump and won him the Electoral College, Biden best fits the bill
    Surely the way to make money politically betting is to be on the right side when the polls are wrong, such as on a hung parliament in 2017, on Trump and Leave in 2016 etc?
This discussion has been closed.