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SystemSystem Posts: 12,615
edited January 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Kamala Harris – my WH2020 66/1 pick from two years ago – set to enter the race a week on Monday

This is from my post under the heading “My 66/1 long-shot bet for the 2020 White House race: Democratic Senator Kamala Harris from California” from January 18th 2017 – two days before Donald Trump was inaugurated as President.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,168
    Ooh

    https://twitter.com/kateemccann/status/1083371476496105472?s=21
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,168
    On topic

    Lay Bernie

    https://twitter.com/laurenegambino/status/1083369972993282048?s=21
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Ooh

    https://twitter.com/kateemccann/status/1083371476496105472?s=21

    1 down ~ 115 to go.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,805
    Sounds like Freeman is a soft Remain type (ie wanted us to stay in and doesn't want no deal, but doesn't want us to end up remaining given the result). Is that accurate?

    On-topic: 'twas a good call. She was mid-single figures in the betting, I think, last time I checked.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,168
    edited January 2019
    The word is bollocks.


    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1083370649425494017?s=21
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    On topic the Democrats did well last time they chose a fresh first-term Senator who wasn't encumbered by the fact he came from an ethnic minority.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,943

    FPT @Ralphmalph

    I really hope they butcher those bastards in Cologne - I assume you have some experience of automotive supply - I could say what I think of them but its probably going to land me in a court ! :-)

    No doubt this will all end up their ususal way, the Jerries will mount a stout defence, the yanks will send over a 7 year old with no experience from Dearborn and the Brit head honcho will decide to close a UK plant because its cheaper and the plebs will put up with it.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,168
    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1083373277098229760?s=21
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    Dadge said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Anazina said:

    Stereotomy said:

    I think one problem No Dealers have is that they (mostly) rejected the option of staying in the Single Market as not fulfilling the referendum despite it technically fulfilling the text we voted on, because keeping FoM wouldn't be in keeping with the spirit of what we voted for. The reasoning behind this is usually either "because that's not the vision the Leave campaign was selling" or "because that's just what I feel". But the exact same reasoning can be used by Dealers and Remainers to say that No Deal isn't in keeping with the spirit of what we voted for.

    Spot on.

    If we had compromised on SM+CU a year ago, we'd all be getting on with our lives now. Sadly, such a sensible approach was beyond the hardliners, who obsessed about FoM. This was not on the ballot paper, and no end of bloody word clouds can alter that clear truth.
    Yes. We also may as well have remained in the EU.

    Can you give me an explanation as to how SM+CU is better than EU membership?

    There are costs and benefits to leaving but as far as I can tell SM+CU has costs but no benefits which should patently rule it out as an absurd option.
    A 52% vote to Leave suggests that Brexit should be as soft as possible.
    That is pretty daft logic. Does that mean a 51:49 vote for remain would have meant that we would have changed anything? It is the logic of a binary choice between blue and red paint and some bright spark mixing together purple and handing it out assuming everyone will be happy.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46824125

    Please let’s have an election before I have to decide my Brexit policy
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,168
    https://twitter.com/marcusleroux/status/1083358302631809025?s=21

    https://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/2019/01/10/en-cas-de-brexit-dur-des-regles-d-urbanisme-abolies-en-france_5407146_3234.html
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,800
    Nemtynakht said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46824125

    Please let’s have an election before I have to decide my Brexit policy

    He's still going to have to decide a brexit policy even if he gets a GE, but he's too thick to have worked that out.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited January 2019
    BBC Politics estimate for the meaningful vote:

    Ayes: 206
    Noes: 433

    Majority for noes of 228.

    She is on course for the biggest Commons defeat in Parliamenary history - beating the minority Labour government's losing tally of 166 in 1924.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,500
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1083373277098229760?s=21

    They want him deselected as their candidate. It does not affect his current status as an MP until the next election. And according to the most recent YouGov poll in the constituency support for Brexit has actually gone up rather than down since the referendum.

    Personally I am on the same page as Boles when it comes to the preferred form of Brexit but that is apparently not a view shared by his constituents.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Nemtynakht said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46824125

    Please let’s have an election before I have to decide my Brexit policy

    Theresa May, 2017?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,943
    Macron gets a post Xmas bounce in the polls of 1% and now has an approval rating of 22%.

    http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2019/01/10/01002-20190110ARTFIG00085-sondage-timide-remontee-d-emmanuel-macron.php

    meantime the gilets jaunes are planning a super demo in the centre of France at Bourges so they all can meet up

    http://www.lefigaro.fr/actualite-france/2019/01/10/01016-20190110ARTFIG00168-gilets-jaunes-un-appel-a-manifester-a-bourges-prend-de-l-ampleur.php
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1083373277098229760?s=21

    They want him deselected as their candidate. It does not affect his current status as an MP until the next election. And according to the most recent YouGov poll in the constituency support for Brexit has actually gone up rather than down since the referendum.

    Personally I am on the same page as Boles when it comes to the preferred form of Brexit but that is apparently not a view shared by his constituents.
    Boles, of course, merely has to let it be known he will happily stand as an Independent and split the Tory vote, if that is the outcome they desire.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,588
    edited January 2019
    I pay a great deal of attention to mental images. My own, I mean. When assessing the likelihood of something I first picture it actually happening. I conjur it up in quite some detail and then I ask myself, how does that feel as a viewing experience? Is that like looking at the news? Or is it more like watching a bad film?

    So, doing it here, "Today was the first day of President Harris's 3 day visit to the UK, and ..." accompanied by live footage of her walking down the steps of Air Force One, struggling a little to keep her hair under control on what is a rather breezy day at Heathrow.

    Yes. More than that. YES! It works a dream. So I'm on. Only wish I'd done the exercise ages ago when 66/1 was available. 8/1 was the best I could get.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,805
    Mr. Cocque, on Betfair there's around 4.5 for the bands of that area (3.75 for under 200) but the bands are tight. Excepting under 200, they're in groups of 10.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Ooh

    https://twitter.com/kateemccann/status/1083371476496105472?s=21

    Nicky Soames being supportive in WATO as well
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Nemtynakht said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46824125

    Please let’s have an election before I have to decide my Brexit policy

    Theresa May, 2017?
    Agreed - that was too late around 21 months before Brexit. I would have thought that Labour would have had a policy by now. If we have an election now we will have Brexited before Corbyn has to decide.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,629
    Alanbrooke said:

    Macron gets a post Xmas bounce in the polls of 1% and now has an approval rating of 22%.

    http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2019/01/10/01002-20190110ARTFIG00085-sondage-timide-remontee-d-emmanuel-macron.php

    meantime the gilets jaunes are planning a super demo in the centre of France at Bourges so they all can meet up

    http://www.lefigaro.fr/actualite-france/2019/01/10/01016-20190110ARTFIG00168-gilets-jaunes-un-appel-a-manifester-a-bourges-prend-de-l-ampleur.php

    21% to 22% - that's nearly a 5% surge! :smile:
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,622
    Bet only gets tasty when Kamala becomes KAMALA.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,500
    Has anyone yet raised the intervention by the former head of MI6 and former Chief of Defence staff claiming that May's deal will threaten national security and urging a No Deal Brexit?

    https://news.sky.com/story/theresa-mays-brexit-deal-threatens-national-security-ex-mi6-chief-sir-richard-dearlove-warns-11603738

    Any thoughts on its impact, if any?
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Cocque, on Betfair there's around 4.5 for the bands of that area (3.75 for under 200) but the bands are tight. Excepting under 200, they're in groups of 10.

    I think it'll be in the 150-200 range. Over 200 would be astonishingly poor even for a communicator as bad as May.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,629
    Nemtynakht said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Nemtynakht said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46824125

    Please let’s have an election before I have to decide my Brexit policy

    Theresa May, 2017?
    Agreed - that was too late around 21 months before Brexit. I would have thought that Labour would have had a policy by now. If we have an election now we will have Brexited before Corbyn has to decide.
    We are not leaving on March 29th, that's for sure.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,168
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Has anyone yet raised the intervention by the former head of MI6 and former Chief of Defence staff claiming that May's deal will threaten national security and urging a No Deal Brexit?

    https://news.sky.com/story/theresa-mays-brexit-deal-threatens-national-security-ex-mi6-chief-sir-richard-dearlove-warns-11603738

    Any thoughts on its impact, if any?

    From the head of MI6 during the Iraq war.

    He’s damaged goods.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,500
    grabcocque said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1083373277098229760?s=21

    They want him deselected as their candidate. It does not affect his current status as an MP until the next election. And according to the most recent YouGov poll in the constituency support for Brexit has actually gone up rather than down since the referendum.

    Personally I am on the same page as Boles when it comes to the preferred form of Brexit but that is apparently not a view shared by his constituents.
    Boles, of course, merely has to let it be known he will happily stand as an Independent and split the Tory vote, if that is the outcome they desire.
    Oh yes. I am not saying I agree with their choice but to claim somehow it is undemocratic for an association to choose who they want as their candidate under the system as it stands seems rather perverse.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    Slackbladder said:

    Nemtynakht said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46824125

    Please let’s have an election before I have to decide my Brexit policy

    He's still going to have to decide a brexit policy even if he gets a GE, but he's too thick to have worked that out.
    I honestly think he wants to put up his hands and say it was them who did it. I’d love it if May came to the house and asked him to form a Government, no election. Limited support for enactment of Brexit. If they tried to put other business through vote it down, or amend the business Motions now apparently allowed.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,500
    grabcocque said:

    BBC Politics estimate for the meaningful vote:

    Ayes: 206
    Noes: 433

    Majority for noes of 228.

    She is on course for the biggest Commons defeat in Parliamenary history - beating the minority Labour government's losing tally of 166 in 1924.

    Nice to see new records being set :)
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Nemtynakht said:

    Dadge said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Anazina said:

    Stereotomy said:

    I think one problem No Dealers have is that they (mostly) rejected the option of staying in the Single Market as not fulfilling the referendum despite it technically fulfilling the text we voted on, because keeping FoM wouldn't be in keeping with the spirit of what we voted for. The reasoning behind this is usually either "because that's not the vision the Leave campaign was selling" or "because that's just what I feel". But the exact same reasoning can be used by Dealers and Remainers to say that No Deal isn't in keeping with the spirit of what we voted for.

    Spot on.

    If we had compromised on SM+CU a year ago, we'd all be getting on with our lives now. Sadly, such a sensible approach was beyond the hardliners, who obsessed about FoM. This was not on the ballot paper, and no end of bloody word clouds can alter that clear truth.
    Yes. We also may as well have remained in the EU.

    Can you give me an explanation as to how SM+CU is better than EU membership?

    There are costs and benefits to leaving but as far as I can tell SM+CU has costs but no benefits which should patently rule it out as an absurd option.
    A 52% vote to Leave suggests that Brexit should be as soft as possible.
    That is pretty daft logic. Does that mean a 51:49 vote for remain would have meant that we would have changed anything? It is the logic of a binary choice between blue and red paint and some bright spark mixing together purple and handing it out assuming everyone will be happy.
    The paint analogy is pretty good description of what’s happened though!!
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,943
    edited January 2019
    Is Germany literally about to blow up ?

    Evidence is emerging of a large magma chamber forming under lakes in the Rheinland. Following recent earthquakes it is deemed to be active and needs to be kept under watch.

    https://www.faz.net/aktuell/wissen/erde-klima/vulkanismus-in-deutschland-unter-der-eifel-steigt-magma-auf-15981923.html
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,500
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Has anyone yet raised the intervention by the former head of MI6 and former Chief of Defence staff claiming that May's deal will threaten national security and urging a No Deal Brexit?

    https://news.sky.com/story/theresa-mays-brexit-deal-threatens-national-security-ex-mi6-chief-sir-richard-dearlove-warns-11603738

    Any thoughts on its impact, if any?

    From the head of MI6 during the Iraq war.

    He’s damaged goods.
    Rather too easy a dismissal I would think. Writing to the Constituency Chairmen to get them to put pressure on their MPs can't exactly help May.

    And how many people would even know when he was head of MI6? All they will see will be head of MI6 and Chief of Defence staff and assume they know what they are talking about.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,933
    KLOBUCHAR KLOBUCHAR KLOBUCHAR
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,653
    edited January 2019
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Has anyone yet raised the intervention by the former head of MI6 and former Chief of Defence staff claiming that May's deal will threaten national security and urging a No Deal Brexit?

    https://news.sky.com/story/theresa-mays-brexit-deal-threatens-national-security-ex-mi6-chief-sir-richard-dearlove-warns-11603738

    Any thoughts on its impact, if any?

    From the head of MI6 during the Iraq war.

    He’s damaged goods.
    Apparently though the spooks are hopping mad due to some of the bollocks May deal would have the UK sign up to e.g. Basically paying for access to shared intell, which the UK provides the vast majority of the info to.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,805
    Mr. Cocque, ahem, think I misread your post, I thought you were talking about the vote on the deal, not the Grieve meaningful vote. Sorry about that.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Cocque, ahem, think I misread your post, I thought you were talking about the vote on the deal, not the Grieve meaningful vote. Sorry about that.

    I was talking about the meaningful vote, majority for No in the 150-200 range.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,582
    grabcocque said:

    BBC Politics estimate for the meaningful vote:

    Ayes: 206
    Noes: 433

    Majority for noes of 228.

    She is on course for the biggest Commons defeat in Parliamenary history - beating the minority Labour government's losing tally of 166 in 1924.

    I do wonder how many Tory MPs, seeing that May's Deal is going to lose big style, can safely return to the default setting of being Loyal Lickspittles?
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    DRAMA:

    No 10: There will 'only be 90 minutes of debate on the motion' & 'only one amendment could be selected'

    Chief Whip: No decision has been made. Govt will do everything it can to ensure the House is fully consulted. The information is not correct.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,942
    grabcocque said:

    BBC Politics estimate for the meaningful vote:

    Ayes: 206
    Noes: 433

    Majority for noes of 228.

    She is on course for the biggest Commons defeat in Parliamenary history - beating the minority Labour government's losing tally of 166 in 1924.

    Labour's defeat in 1924 was soon followed by a general election and a Con landslide (this election also defined 20th century politics as it saw the decimation of the Liberals which cemented the Con/Lab duopoly that dominated 20th century politics)

    Could we be about to see history repeat but in reverse? Lab landslide and Con split?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,933
    grabcocque said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1083373277098229760?s=21

    They want him deselected as their candidate. It does not affect his current status as an MP until the next election. And according to the most recent YouGov poll in the constituency support for Brexit has actually gone up rather than down since the referendum.

    Personally I am on the same page as Boles when it comes to the preferred form of Brexit but that is apparently not a view shared by his constituents.
    Boles, of course, merely has to let it be known he will happily stand as an Independent and split the Tory vote, if that is the outcome they desire.
    He'll take a couple of thousand votes at the most. No chance that seat doesn't go to anyone other than the official Tory candidate.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,653
    edited January 2019
    SeanT said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Has anyone yet raised the intervention by the former head of MI6 and former Chief of Defence staff claiming that May's deal will threaten national security and urging a No Deal Brexit?

    https://news.sky.com/story/theresa-mays-brexit-deal-threatens-national-security-ex-mi6-chief-sir-richard-dearlove-warns-11603738

    Any thoughts on its impact, if any?

    From the head of MI6 during the Iraq war.

    He’s damaged goods.
    Apparently though the spooks are hopping mad due to some of the bollocks May deal would have the UK sign up to e.g. Basically paying for access to shared intell, which the UK provides the vast majority of the info to.
    As someone said, the more you look into TMay’s deal, the worse it gets. It is dreadful, and we cannot escape it - we will end up simply abrogating, with all the damage that does to our standing.

    As a Leaver, I would far rather Remain, than sign this disgraceful suicide note.
    It is spectacular shit negotiations when you hold all the cards on one issue and somehow you end up agreeing to the worst outcome. If anything, the EU should be paying us for the access to this info...in reality a decent negotiator would get get an outcome where this remained unchanged in a quid pro quo for something good for us.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    GIN1138 said:

    grabcocque said:

    BBC Politics estimate for the meaningful vote:

    Ayes: 206
    Noes: 433

    Majority for noes of 228.

    She is on course for the biggest Commons defeat in Parliamenary history - beating the minority Labour government's losing tally of 166 in 1924.

    Labour's defeat in 1924 was soon followed by a general election and a Con landslide (this election also defined 20th century politics as it saw the decimation of the Liberals which cemented the Con/Lab duopoly that dominated 20th century politics)

    Could we be about to see history repeat but in reverse? Lab landslide and Con split?
    No
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,629
    edited January 2019
    SeanT said:

    grabcocque said:

    BBC Politics estimate for the meaningful vote:

    Ayes: 206
    Noes: 433

    Majority for noes of 228.

    She is on course for the biggest Commons defeat in Parliamenary history - beating the minority Labour government's losing tally of 166 in 1924.


    The Deal cannot return after that, not in any form, not even if she gets meaningless promises from Brussels cast in Welsh gold and deposited at the centre of the earth.

    That leaves No Deal, new GE, 2nd referendum. No?
    She could bring it back as an "approve this Deal or face a Ref2/GE" [delete as you see fit] choice.

    I suspect it will be a "this Deal or Ref2" choice presented to MPs in a 2nd vote next week or the week after. That will require an A50 extension to the end of 2019.

    In any event I can't see us leaving on March 29th.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,588
    grabcocque said:

    Majority for noes of 228.

    She is on course for the biggest Commons defeat in Parliamentary history - beating the minority Labour government's losing tally of 166 in 1924.

    Looks like it.

    MASSIVE Commons rejection of Brexit with a Deal.

    And as we know, MASSIVE Commons rejection of Brexit without a Deal.

    Put that together, bit of simple algebra, and what do we get?

    MASSIVE Commons rejection of Brexit!

    That poor old 2016 referendum. So high and mighty, back in the day, so loud and proud, and now with as much status and influence as a eunuch at an orgy.

    Lesson there somewhere.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    SeanT said:

    grabcocque said:

    BBC Politics estimate for the meaningful vote:

    Ayes: 206
    Noes: 433

    Majority for noes of 228.

    She is on course for the biggest Commons defeat in Parliamenary history - beating the minority Labour government's losing tally of 166 in 1924.


    The Deal cannot return after that, not in any form, not even if she gets meaningless promises from Brussels cast in Welsh gold and deposited at the centre of the earth.

    That leaves No Deal, new GE, 2nd referendum. No?
    I reckon a losing majority 80 or 90 is the limit. Beyond that, May - and her deal - are gone.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    SeanT said:

    grabcocque said:

    BBC Politics estimate for the meaningful vote:

    Ayes: 206
    Noes: 433

    Majority for noes of 228.

    She is on course for the biggest Commons defeat in Parliamenary history - beating the minority Labour government's losing tally of 166 in 1924.


    The Deal cannot return after that, not in any form, not even if she gets meaningless promises from Brussels cast in Welsh gold and deposited at the centre of the earth.

    That leaves No Deal, new GE, 2nd referendum. No?
    As I keep saying, 'new GE' and 'EURef2' are not Brexit outcomes, they're processes (though they are related possible consequences).
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,629
    Pulpstar said:

    grabcocque said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1083373277098229760?s=21

    They want him deselected as their candidate. It does not affect his current status as an MP until the next election. And according to the most recent YouGov poll in the constituency support for Brexit has actually gone up rather than down since the referendum.

    Personally I am on the same page as Boles when it comes to the preferred form of Brexit but that is apparently not a view shared by his constituents.
    Boles, of course, merely has to let it be known he will happily stand as an Independent and split the Tory vote, if that is the outcome they desire.
    He'll take a couple of thousand votes at the most. No chance that seat doesn't go to anyone other than the official Tory candidate.
    Er... depends on what level of chaos the Tories have descended into by then.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,622
    grabcocque said:

    BBC Politics estimate for the meaningful vote:

    Ayes: 206
    Noes: 433

    Majority for noes of 228.

    She is on course for the biggest Commons defeat in Parliamenary history - beating the minority Labour government's losing tally of 166 in 1924.

    But Nick Soames says that despite all available evidence he can feel it in his water that the arithmetic is turning Tessy's way!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,653
    edited January 2019
    If anything we need less ministers....just have ones that actually do their job.

    MPs want hunger minister role introduced

    https://www.bbc.com/news/education-46810707
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    https://twitter.com/steven_swinford/status/1083379571469238272?s=21
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Parliament needs to come to a settled view. That means May needs to remove some of the options from the table, to make things easier. The easiest option to remove from the table is No Deal.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,582
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    SeanT said:

    grabcocque said:

    BBC Politics estimate for the meaningful vote:

    Ayes: 206
    Noes: 433

    Majority for noes of 228.

    She is on course for the biggest Commons defeat in Parliamenary history - beating the minority Labour government's losing tally of 166 in 1924.


    The Deal cannot return after that, not in any form, not even if she gets meaningless promises from Brussels cast in Welsh gold and deposited at the centre of the earth.

    That leaves No Deal, new GE, 2nd referendum. No?
    I reckon a losing majority 80 or 90 is the limit. Beyond that, May - and her deal - are gone.
    May doesn't seem to have any Plan B. Resigning would be the political norm - but with just weeks to go to the (supposed) Brexit Day, she will convince herself it is the responsible thing to stay. To do what, though, not even God knows.....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,933
    edited January 2019
    Benpointer said:

    Pulpstar said:

    grabcocque said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1083373277098229760?s=21

    They want him deselected as their candidate. It does not affect his current status as an MP until the next election. And according to the most recent YouGov poll in the constituency support for Brexit has actually gone up rather than down since the referendum.

    Personally I am on the same page as Boles when it comes to the preferred form of Brexit but that is apparently not a view shared by his constituents.
    Boles, of course, merely has to let it be known he will happily stand as an Independent and split the Tory vote, if that is the outcome they desire.
    He'll take a couple of thousand votes at the most. No chance that seat doesn't go to anyone other than the official Tory candidate.
    Er... depends on what level of chaos the Tories have descended into by then.
    #75 in the majority sorted ordered seat list for the Tories... Seat was held even in 1997.
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    Labour are going to have to step up soon and say what they will support to avoid No Deal.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    MarqueeMark said:

    grabcocque said:

    BBC Politics estimate for the meaningful vote:

    Ayes: 206
    Noes: 433

    Majority for noes of 228.

    She is on course for the biggest Commons defeat in Parliamenary history - beating the minority Labour government's losing tally of 166 in 1924.

    I do wonder how many Tory MPs, seeing that May's Deal is going to lose big style, can safely return to the default setting of being Loyal Lickspittles?
    Well quite nothing quite matches the Tories for principled duplicitity in the name of career advancement. Are there anough Tories who will line up behind Labour so that they can form a Government. If we think it is chaotic now imagine Labour trying to run a minority Gov where they can’t get out due to FTPA.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    SeanT said:

    grabcocque said:

    BBC Politics estimate for the meaningful vote:

    Ayes: 206
    Noes: 433

    Majority for noes of 228.

    She is on course for the biggest Commons defeat in Parliamenary history - beating the minority Labour government's losing tally of 166 in 1924.


    The Deal cannot return after that, not in any form, not even if she gets meaningless promises from Brussels cast in Welsh gold and deposited at the centre of the earth.

    That leaves No Deal, new GE, 2nd referendum. No?
    I reckon a losing majority 80 or 90 is the limit. Beyond that, May - and her deal - are gone.
    Are you falling into that trap of thinking there are circumstances in which May would resign?
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    grabcocque said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1083373277098229760?s=21

    They want him deselected as their candidate. It does not affect his current status as an MP until the next election. And according to the most recent YouGov poll in the constituency support for Brexit has actually gone up rather than down since the referendum.

    Personally I am on the same page as Boles when it comes to the preferred form of Brexit but that is apparently not a view shared by his constituents.
    Boles, of course, merely has to let it be known he will happily stand as an Independent and split the Tory vote, if that is the outcome they desire.
    Oh yes. I am not saying I agree with their choice but to claim somehow it is undemocratic for an association to choose who they want as their candidate under the system as it stands seems rather perverse.
    The nation would be a better place – and better governed – if members of political parties were barred from voting at all.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,003
    A typical piece of Trump shamelessness/dishonesty...

    https://secure.donaldjtrump.com/official-secure-the-border-fund
    SECURE THE BORDER
    The American people are demanding Democrats finally put America First and BUILD THE WALL....but Chuck and Nancy simply won’t listen.

    That’s why I want to do something so HUGE, even Democrats and the Fake News won’t be able to ignore.

    We need to raise $500,000 in ONE DAY.

    Please make a special contribution in the next FIVE MINUTES to our Official Secure the Border Fund to add your name to the President’s list....

    And in somewhat smaller print...
    Contributions to Donald J. Trump for President, Inc. are not tax deductible for federal income tax purposes. Contributions from corporations, labor unions, federal contractors, and foreign nationals are prohibited....
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,214
    kinabalu said:

    grabcocque said:

    Majority for noes of 228.

    She is on course for the biggest Commons defeat in Parliamentary history - beating the minority Labour government's losing tally of 166 in 1924.

    Looks like it.

    MASSIVE Commons rejection of Brexit with a Deal.

    And as we know, MASSIVE Commons rejection of Brexit without a Deal.

    Put that together, bit of simple algebra, and what do we get?

    MASSIVE Commons rejection of Brexit!

    That poor old 2016 referendum. So high and mighty, back in the day, so loud and proud, and now with as much status and influence as a eunuch at an orgy.

    Lesson there somewhere.
    The deal will pass. Believe it. I have backed it to pass on bf in Jan, Feb or Mar (<29). Free money.

    :smile:
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    david_herdson said:

    SeanT said:

    grabcocque said:

    BBC Politics estimate for the meaningful vote:

    Ayes: 206
    Noes: 433

    Majority for noes of 228.

    She is on course for the biggest Commons defeat in Parliamenary history - beating the minority Labour government's losing tally of 166 in 1924.


    The Deal cannot return after that, not in any form, not even if she gets meaningless promises from Brussels cast in Welsh gold and deposited at the centre of the earth.

    That leaves No Deal, new GE, 2nd referendum. No?
    As I keep saying, 'new GE' and 'EURef2' are not Brexit outcomes, they're processes (though they are related possible consequences).
    If you can narrow it down to two defined outcomes that parliament cannot decide between, either you have a referendum or get a new parliament. A referendum seems like the better option if the reason parliament can’t decide is that it’s inhibited by the result of another referendum.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    Benpointer said:

    SeanT said:

    grabcocque said:

    BBC Politics estimate for the meaningful vote:

    Ayes: 206
    Noes: 433

    Majority for noes of 228.

    She is on course for the biggest Commons defeat in Parliamenary history - beating the minority Labour government's losing tally of 166 in 1924.


    The Deal cannot return after that, not in any form, not even if she gets meaningless promises from Brussels cast in Welsh gold and deposited at the centre of the earth.

    That leaves No Deal, new GE, 2nd referendum. No?
    She could bring it back as an "approve this Deal or face a Ref2/GE" [delete as you see fit] choice.

    I suspect it will be a "this Deal or Ref2" choice presented to MPs in a 2nd vote next week or the week after. That will require an A50 extension to the end of 2019.

    In any event I can't see us leaving on March 29th.
    If T May wants the most damage to occur to the the Tory Party then it will be Revoke A50 followed by second ref. She will not do any of these, her whole life is the Tory Party.

    On losing the vote she will go back to Brussels and work on the back stop whilst saying the UK will step up no deal preps.

    The question is will the EU cave on the backstop, T May can not.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,091
    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/marcusleroux/status/1083358302631809025?s=21

    https://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/2019/01/10/en-cas-de-brexit-dur-des-regles-d-urbanisme-abolies-en-france_5407146_3234.html

    Who the fuck cares what the French think about lorries crossing to Dover. They are about to be invaded by Italy.

    Seriously, the EU is now facing greater existential crises than Brexit. From migration to recession to populism to the end of Merkel, the humiliation of Macron, the rebellion of the East, the eurozone’s endless death throes, the EU is in deep deep shit. We are a sideshow of shit.

    We should use this to our advantage. They are suddenly much much weaker.
    I have to agree that Theresa May has manoeuvred the EU (and everyone else for that matter) into precisely the position she wanted, and now has only to deliver the coup de grace. (Or the blow of mercy as it will have to be referred to post-Brexit.)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,965
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Ooh

    https://twitter.com/kateemccann/status/1083371476496105472?s=21

    He can't count. It's not six weeks until the end of March, it's 10.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Trump sounds weak here.
    https://twitter.com/scottmcgrew/status/1083378976465121280?s=21
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,082
    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    grabcocque said:

    Majority for noes of 228.

    She is on course for the biggest Commons defeat in Parliamentary history - beating the minority Labour government's losing tally of 166 in 1924.

    Looks like it.

    MASSIVE Commons rejection of Brexit with a Deal.

    And as we know, MASSIVE Commons rejection of Brexit without a Deal.

    Put that together, bit of simple algebra, and what do we get?

    MASSIVE Commons rejection of Brexit!

    That poor old 2016 referendum. So high and mighty, back in the day, so loud and proud, and now with as much status and influence as a eunuch at an orgy.

    Lesson there somewhere.
    The deal will pass. Believe it. I have backed it to pass on bf in Jan, Feb or Mar (<29). Free money.

    :smile: </p>
    ... but on the other hand I make £25 (Yes, I'm THAT confident) if we don't Brexit on 29th March.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,965
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Sounds like Freeman is a soft Remain type (ie wanted us to stay in and doesn't want no deal, but doesn't want us to end up remaining given the result). Is that accurate?

    On-topic: 'twas a good call. She was mid-single figures in the betting, I think, last time I checked.

    I think that group is a surprisingly large one. Not enough, probably, to get Mrs May over the line. But enough to narrow the gap substantially.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,653
    First there was white flight, now there is Conservative flight...

    Start A New Life Free Of Liberals With “Conservative Move”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6ANfAR2Kjow
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,004
    SeanT said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Has anyone yet raised the intervention by the former head of MI6 and former Chief of Defence staff claiming that May's deal will threaten national security and urging a No Deal Brexit?

    https://news.sky.com/story/theresa-mays-brexit-deal-threatens-national-security-ex-mi6-chief-sir-richard-dearlove-warns-11603738

    Any thoughts on its impact, if any?

    From the head of MI6 during the Iraq war.

    He’s damaged goods.
    Apparently though the spooks are hopping mad due to some of the bollocks May deal would have the UK sign up to e.g. Basically paying for access to shared intell, which the UK provides the vast majority of the info to.
    As someone said, the more you look into TMay’s deal, the worse it gets. It is dreadful, and we cannot escape it - we will end up simply abrogating, with all the damage that does to our standing.

    As a Leaver, I would far rather Remain, than sign this disgraceful suicide note.
    Have you read it?

    It really isn’t. It’s just been so comprehensively sledged that everyone believes it now, without really understanding it.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    kinabalu said:

    grabcocque said:

    Majority for noes of 228.

    She is on course for the biggest Commons defeat in Parliamentary history - beating the minority Labour government's losing tally of 166 in 1924.

    Looks like it.

    MASSIVE Commons rejection of Brexit with a Deal.

    And as we know, MASSIVE Commons rejection of Brexit without a Deal.

    Put that together, bit of simple algebra, and what do we get?

    MASSIVE Commons rejection of Brexit!

    That poor old 2016 referendum. So high and mighty, back in the day, so loud and proud, and now with as much status and influence as a eunuch at an orgy.

    Lesson there somewhere.
    Yes it’s fantastic for democracy that 17 plus million people who were told that their decision would be enacted will see it disregarded by 400 people.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    grabcocque said:

    Majority for noes of 228.

    She is on course for the biggest Commons defeat in Parliamentary history - beating the minority Labour government's losing tally of 166 in 1924.

    Looks like it.

    MASSIVE Commons rejection of Brexit with a Deal.

    And as we know, MASSIVE Commons rejection of Brexit without a Deal.

    Put that together, bit of simple algebra, and what do we get?

    MASSIVE Commons rejection of Brexit!

    That poor old 2016 referendum. So high and mighty, back in the day, so loud and proud, and now with as much status and influence as a eunuch at an orgy.

    Lesson there somewhere.
    The deal will pass. Believe it. I have backed it to pass on bf in Jan, Feb or Mar (<29). Free money.

    :smile: </p>
    How?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,653
    edited January 2019
    williamglenn said:

    Trump sounds weak here.
    twitter.com/scottmcgrew/status/1083378976465121280?s=21

    To be fair, I never presumed he meant Mexico writing a cheque. I assumed he meant via tariffs, reduced aid payments etc. But obviously he isn't even doing that.

    No idea what the MAGA nutters thought.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,965
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Bet only gets tasty when Kamala becomes KAMALA.

    Have you noticed how the last and third to last letters in her name are "a"? I don't believe a Presidential candidate with a's in those positions has ever lost.

    Just saying.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    williamglenn said:

    david_herdson said:

    SeanT said:

    grabcocque said:

    BBC Politics estimate for the meaningful vote:

    Ayes: 206
    Noes: 433

    Majority for noes of 228.

    She is on course for the biggest Commons defeat in Parliamenary history - beating the minority Labour government's losing tally of 166 in 1924.


    The Deal cannot return after that, not in any form, not even if she gets meaningless promises from Brussels cast in Welsh gold and deposited at the centre of the earth.

    That leaves No Deal, new GE, 2nd referendum. No?
    As I keep saying, 'new GE' and 'EURef2' are not Brexit outcomes, they're processes (though they are related possible consequences).
    If you can narrow it down to two defined outcomes that parliament cannot decide between, either you have a referendum or get a new parliament. A referendum seems like the better option if the reason parliament can’t decide is that it’s inhibited by the result of another referendum.
    If parliament were able to narrow it down to two options, it would be able to decide for itself.

    I agree that if there were a consensus to remain, then the sensible thing would be to call a new referendum. But there isn't that consensus.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,500
    Anazina said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    grabcocque said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1083373277098229760?s=21

    They want him deselected as their candidate. It does not affect his current status as an MP until the next election. And according to the most recent YouGov poll in the constituency support for Brexit has actually gone up rather than down since the referendum.

    Personally I am on the same page as Boles when it comes to the preferred form of Brexit but that is apparently not a view shared by his constituents.
    Boles, of course, merely has to let it be known he will happily stand as an Independent and split the Tory vote, if that is the outcome they desire.
    Oh yes. I am not saying I agree with their choice but to claim somehow it is undemocratic for an association to choose who they want as their candidate under the system as it stands seems rather perverse.
    The nation would be a better place – and better governed – if members of political parties were barred from voting at all.
    Ah now you are talking. I get a lot of stick on here (and will again) for railing against the parties and the whips. I feel strongly that the party system is a corruption of our political system and should be massively reformed. It will never happen of course because there are too many vested interests opposing change.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    Casino_Royale said:

    SeanT said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Has anyone yet raised the intervention by the former head of MI6 and former Chief of Defence staff claiming that May's deal will threaten national security and urging a No Deal Brexit?

    https://news.sky.com/story/theresa-mays-brexit-deal-threatens-national-security-ex-mi6-chief-sir-richard-dearlove-warns-11603738

    Any thoughts on its impact, if any?

    From the head of MI6 during the Iraq war.

    He’s damaged goods.
    Apparently though the spooks are hopping mad due to some of the bollocks May deal would have the UK sign up to e.g. Basically paying for access to shared intell, which the UK provides the vast majority of the info to.
    As someone said, the more you look into TMay’s deal, the worse it gets. It is dreadful, and we cannot escape it - we will end up simply abrogating, with all the damage that does to our standing.

    As a Leaver, I would far rather Remain, than sign this disgraceful suicide note.
    Have you read it?

    It really isn’t. It’s just been so comprehensively sledged that everyone believes it now, without really understanding it.
    I do not know if you read Briefings for Brexit, the site setup by Graham Gudgin and Robert Tombs, both Profs at Cambridge and the contributors are usually senior academics or business people, Lords. But they have not been very complementary about the WDA at all with articles written by leading QC's or Professors of Law.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,582
    rcs1000 said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Bet only gets tasty when Kamala becomes KAMALA.

    Have you noticed how the last and third to last letters in her name are "a"? I don't believe a Presidential candidate with a's in those positions has ever lost.

    Just saying.
    Don't give Trump ideas. He'll run in 2020 having changed his name by deed poll to Donald Maga.....
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,340
    rcs1000 said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Sounds like Freeman is a soft Remain type (ie wanted us to stay in and doesn't want no deal, but doesn't want us to end up remaining given the result). Is that accurate?

    On-topic: 'twas a good call. She was mid-single figures in the betting, I think, last time I checked.

    I think that group is a surprisingly large one. Not enough, probably, to get Mrs May over the line. But enough to narrow the gap substantially.
    I'm a bit surprised that group have joined the "deal's shit" chorus. I guess it's because (a) they think the hardline Brexiters will own No Deal, and (b) they sniff a chance of No Brexit.

    But given the stakes and unpredictability of outcome, it's, um, courageous.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,805
    Mr. 1000, there's 21, or was a short time ago, on the deal passing at the first attempt, on Betfair.

    It requires a substantial number of Labour MPs to go that way, though, to actually come off.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    ralphmalph said:

    Benpointer said:

    SeanT said:

    grabcocque said:

    BBC Politics estimate for the meaningful vote:

    Ayes: 206
    Noes: 433

    Majority for noes of 228.

    She is on course for the biggest Commons defeat in Parliamenary history - beating the minority Labour government's losing tally of 166 in 1924.


    The Deal cannot return after that, not in any form, not even if she gets meaningless promises from Brussels cast in Welsh gold and deposited at the centre of the earth.

    That leaves No Deal, new GE, 2nd referendum. No?
    She could bring it back as an "approve this Deal or face a Ref2/GE" [delete as you see fit] choice.

    I suspect it will be a "this Deal or Ref2" choice presented to MPs in a 2nd vote next week or the week after. That will require an A50 extension to the end of 2019.

    In any event I can't see us leaving on March 29th.
    If T May wants the most damage to occur to the the Tory Party then it will be Revoke A50 followed by second ref. She will not do any of these, her whole life is the Tory Party.

    On losing the vote she will go back to Brussels and work on the back stop whilst saying the UK will step up no deal preps.

    The question is will the EU cave on the backstop, T May can not.
    I genuinely think the EU believe that she will get it through - how else do they think they will retain the advantages it will give them in negotiations
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,500
    SeanT said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Has anyone yet raised the intervention by the former head of MI6 and former Chief of Defence staff claiming that May's deal will threaten national security and urging a No Deal Brexit?

    https://news.sky.com/story/theresa-mays-brexit-deal-threatens-national-security-ex-mi6-chief-sir-richard-dearlove-warns-11603738

    Any thoughts on its impact, if any?

    From the head of MI6 during the Iraq war.

    He’s damaged goods.
    Apparently though the spooks are hopping mad due to some of the bollocks May deal would have the UK sign up to e.g. Basically paying for access to shared intell, which the UK provides the vast majority of the info to.
    As someone said, the more you look into TMay’s deal, the worse it gets. It is dreadful, and we cannot escape it - we will end up simply abrogating, with all the damage that does to our standing.

    As a Leaver, I would far rather Remain, than sign this disgraceful suicide note.
    Nah. Nothing is worse than remaining.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,653
    It appears the Chinese companies have underestimated what shits a lot of people are in the West compared to China. Maybe we need a social credit score ;-)

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/jan/10/ofo-cycle-hire-firm-pulls-out-of-london
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    grabcocque said:

    Parliament needs to come to a settled view. That means May needs to remove some of the options from the table, to make things easier. The easiest option to remove from the table is No Deal.

    And how does she do that? The only things that can prevent No Deal are;

    1. A deal. Which requires parliament to ratify it;
    2. An A50 extension (this doesn't prevent No Deal but it does delay it). This requires the agreement of the EU.
    3. Revoke A50. She probably doesn't have the power in UK law to do this herself and if she tried to, she'd probably be swept away by a mutiny within her party anyway.

    It's not within May's authority to take No Deal off the table.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,588
    The Deal: Negotiated exit from the EU. Product of 2 years work. Agreed by both parties. Only non-traumatic route available for leaving.

    But it's none too popular, Wise Man, so what do we do?

    Well, says the Wise Man, you ought to review the feasible alternatives and, if there is a better one, you should reject the Deal and do that instead.

    Really?

    Yes, really. That would be wise. It's why I'm called the Wise Man.

    Oh. Because what we're planning to do is quite the opposite. We are intending to kill the Deal first and THEN we are going to run around like chickens scrabbling for an alternative.

    Wow. That is so stupid! Is there a good reason for that that I'm missing?

    No comment.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,241
    grabcocque said:

    BBC Politics estimate for the meaningful vote:

    Ayes: 206
    Noes: 433

    Majority for noes of 228.

    She is on course for the biggest Commons defeat in Parliamenary history - beating the minority Labour government's losing tally of 166 in 1924.

    That sounds about right from Mr Meeks' tally sheet yesterday, if anything a little optimistic.

    The only thing that will substantially change the numbers is if the PM makes it clear beforehand that it's the deal or no deal - but those opposed to no-deal, emboldened by the Speaker yesterday, still think they can somehow force the government to bring forward legislation they don't wish to.

    Ripe market for a spread bet, come on Sporting Index and put one up!
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,500
    kinabalu said:

    grabcocque said:

    Majority for noes of 228.

    She is on course for the biggest Commons defeat in Parliamentary history - beating the minority Labour government's losing tally of 166 in 1924.

    Looks like it.

    MASSIVE Commons rejection of Brexit with a Deal.

    And as we know, MASSIVE Commons rejection of Brexit without a Deal.

    Put that together, bit of simple algebra, and what do we get?

    MASSIVE Commons rejection of Brexit!

    That poor old 2016 referendum. So high and mighty, back in the day, so loud and proud, and now with as much status and influence as a eunuch at an orgy.

    Lesson there somewhere.
    Yep. MPs are not there for the people, only for themselves.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,500
    grabcocque said:

    Parliament needs to come to a settled view. That means May needs to remove some of the options from the table, to make things easier. The easiest option to remove from the table is No Deal.

    Again. Not possible. It is the only option that is actually assured if all other options fail.

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,629
    ralphmalph said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    SeanT said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Has anyone yet raised the intervention by the former head of MI6 and former Chief of Defence staff claiming that May's deal will threaten national security and urging a No Deal Brexit?

    https://news.sky.com/story/theresa-mays-brexit-deal-threatens-national-security-ex-mi6-chief-sir-richard-dearlove-warns-11603738

    Any thoughts on its impact, if any?

    From the head of MI6 during the Iraq war.

    He’s damaged goods.
    Apparently though the spooks are hopping mad due to some of the bollocks May deal would have the UK sign up to e.g. Basically paying for access to shared intell, which the UK provides the vast majority of the info to.
    As someone said, the more you look into TMay’s deal, the worse it gets. It is dreadful, and we cannot escape it - we will end up simply abrogating, with all the damage that does to our standing.

    As a Leaver, I would far rather Remain, than sign this disgraceful suicide note.
    Have you read it?

    It really isn’t. It’s just been so comprehensively sledged that everyone believes it now, without really understanding it.
    I do not know if you read Briefings for Brexit, the site setup by Graham Gudgin and Robert Tombs, both Profs at Cambridge and the contributors are usually senior academics or business people, Lords. But they have not been very complementary about the WDA at all with articles written by leading QC's or Professors of Law.
    On the other hand there's this, which effectively punctures a lot of the puffed up anti-WA fiction:

    http://eulawanalysis.blogspot.com/2018/11/the-brexit-withdrawal-agreement.html
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,943
    Orban lays in to Macron and calls him the enemy.

    Looks like Salvini and Orban want to go tag wrestling

    http://www.lefigaro.fr/flash-actu/2019/01/10/97001-20190110FILWWW00170-orban-combattra-macron-champion-des-forces-pro-immigration.php
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    grabcocque said:

    BBC Politics estimate for the meaningful vote:

    Ayes: 206
    Noes: 433

    Majority for noes of 228.

    She is on course for the biggest Commons defeat in Parliamenary history - beating the minority Labour government's losing tally of 166 in 1924.

    I know this question makes me sound a bit thick (as usual), but can anyone explain why the figures are expected to be different in the key vote compared to the two that the government lost in the last few days?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,629
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    kinabalu said:

    grabcocque said:

    Majority for noes of 228.

    She is on course for the biggest Commons defeat in Parliamentary history - beating the minority Labour government's losing tally of 166 in 1924.

    Looks like it.

    MASSIVE Commons rejection of Brexit with a Deal.

    And as we know, MASSIVE Commons rejection of Brexit without a Deal.

    Put that together, bit of simple algebra, and what do we get?

    MASSIVE Commons rejection of Brexit!

    That poor old 2016 referendum. So high and mighty, back in the day, so loud and proud, and now with as much status and influence as a eunuch at an orgy.

    Lesson there somewhere.
    Yep. MPs are not there for the people, only for themselves.
    The lesson is: government by referendums would be totally shite.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Slackbladder said:

    Nemtynakht said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46824125

    Please let’s have an election before I have to decide my Brexit policy

    He's still going to have to decide a brexit policy even if he gets a GE, but he's too thick to have worked that out.
    Not so, he doesn't want a GE yet. It's pretty obvious that his entire strategy is to avoid ever having to take a position on Brexit, let alone actually get saddled with the poisoned chalice of actually being responsible for implementing it.

    From a cynical Labour party-political viewpoint, that makes sense.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,942
    edited January 2019
    rcs1000 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Ooh

    https://twitter.com/kateemccann/status/1083371476496105472?s=21

    He can't count. It's not six weeks until the end of March, it's 10.
    Does he mean six parliamentary weeks excluding round the world trips... I mean "fact finding missions"... And holidays? :D
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Anazina said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    grabcocque said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1083373277098229760?s=21

    They want him deselected as their candidate. It does not affect his current status as an MP until the next election. And according to the most recent YouGov poll in the constituency support for Brexit has actually gone up rather than down since the referendum.

    Personally I am on the same page as Boles when it comes to the preferred form of Brexit but that is apparently not a view shared by his constituents.
    Boles, of course, merely has to let it be known he will happily stand as an Independent and split the Tory vote, if that is the outcome they desire.
    Oh yes. I am not saying I agree with their choice but to claim somehow it is undemocratic for an association to choose who they want as their candidate under the system as it stands seems rather perverse.
    The nation would be a better place – and better governed – if members of political parties were barred from voting at all.
    Ah now you are talking. I get a lot of stick on here (and will again) for railing against the parties and the whips. I feel strongly that the party system is a corruption of our political system and should be massively reformed. It will never happen of course because there are too many vested interests opposing change.
    Was there a time where we had party-free representative democracy? I thought if anything the party system came before there was a broad franchise.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,582
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    grabcocque said:

    Parliament needs to come to a settled view. That means May needs to remove some of the options from the table, to make things easier. The easiest option to remove from the table is No Deal.

    Again. Not possible. It is the only option that is actually assured if all other options fail.

    No Deal is the Vampire Option. The Undead, unless and until Parliament can decide whether to use crosses, holy water or a stake through the heart and beheading.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,214
    Philip_Thompson said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    grabcocque said:

    Majority for noes of 228.

    She is on course for the biggest Commons defeat in Parliamentary history - beating the minority Labour government's losing tally of 166 in 1924.

    Looks like it.

    MASSIVE Commons rejection of Brexit with a Deal.

    And as we know, MASSIVE Commons rejection of Brexit without a Deal.

    Put that together, bit of simple algebra, and what do we get?

    MASSIVE Commons rejection of Brexit!

    That poor old 2016 referendum. So high and mighty, back in the day, so loud and proud, and now with as much status and influence as a eunuch at an orgy.

    Lesson there somewhere.
    The deal will pass. Believe it. I have backed it to pass on bf in Jan, Feb or Mar (<29). Free money.

    :smile: </p>
    How?
    Either enough Cons turn plus there's a bung to the DUP and some Lab abstain if not vote for. Or it fails, then there is some flannel and a bone is thrown to the ERG and it comes back and then attracts more support.

    Or it fails and continues to fail and there is an A50 extension and new referendum.

    I mean no deal is out of the question and if parliament can't decide what it wants then it's going to have to go back to the people for a deal vs remain referendum.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,588
    edited January 2019
    TOPPING said:

    The deal will pass. Believe it. I have backed it to pass on bf in Jan, Feb or Mar (<29). Free money.

    :smile: </p>

    :-)

    I still think so - this or something close to it.

    Less sure about the timing though.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Kamala Harris is a serious contender and OGH's tip was a great one. But she's now too short.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited January 2019
    williamglenn said:

    Trump sounds weak here.
    https://twitter.com/scottmcgrew/status/1083378976465121280?s=21

    Huh. I think I'm reaching my limit on what I will accept as being too stupid for Trump to say. Did he really say that, or is someone using that new video technology to put words into his mouth?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,629
    AndyJS said:

    grabcocque said:

    BBC Politics estimate for the meaningful vote:

    Ayes: 206
    Noes: 433

    Majority for noes of 228.

    She is on course for the biggest Commons defeat in Parliamenary history - beating the minority Labour government's losing tally of 166 in 1924.

    I know this question makes me sound a bit thick (as usual), but can anyone explain why the figures are expected to be different in the key vote compared to the two that the government lost in the last few days?
    Don't ever worry about asking questions you fear may be dumb on PB - I do it all the time!

    I think the difference is the 120+ Tories who have stated they are agin the Deal. Most of those voted for the Govt in the recent votes.
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