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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Theresa May is more popular through the first thirty months of her tenure than Thatcher and Cameron. An analysis into Prime Ministerial satisfaction ratings
Prime Ministers are, of course, towering figures in public life. Pillars of UK society that are respected and loved in equal measure and enter government with the goodwill of the nation behind them. Then with fairly predictable regularity they slip from the hearts of the public and in some cases end up getting burnt in effigy.
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When I said I was looking forward to your next article, I didn't realise it would be so fast! Thank you!
You need to get Grammarly...
As for its relative awesomeness, can we please decide this by AV?
On topic, sort of, with Corporal's excellent spreadsheet mini-series, Thatcher was far less popular than made out to be in hindsight. She benefited from a divided opposition.
Being relatively unpopular doesn’t have any correlation to electability. Her successor may fare better or worse but the Tories are heading for opposition against the most incompetent Labour Party since Foot’s with May. At least with someone new leading, they have a chance of becoming electable again.
As for the suggestion that if we had not been in the EU there would have been somebody to impose a blanket ban on the export of all British beef - what are you smoking?
It was not only not beneficial, it was a disaster, a criminal enterprise put forward by certain elements that shall be nameless to exploit a public health emergency for their personal gain - and people died as a result.
That is not to say the EU is all bad - if it was, I wouldn't have voted remain - just to remind people that there are times when it got it appallingly badly wrong and showed itself in the darkest of lights.
Of course, if we had behaved like France and ignored the EU when it didn't suit us, we would not be about to leave. That's the irony.
Edit: It works every time.
End of an unprecedentedly long, yet often divisive, era of Tory rule.
Tories rancorous and divided over Maggie's ousting.
Tories dubious about or downright hostile to her wishy washy replacement.
Sexual and financial Tory sleaze (real or imagined) all around.
Tory MPs popping off at regular intervals, providing lots of juicy by-elections to feed the narrative.
The dramatic calamity of Black Wednesday.
A feverishly hostile press consumed with blood lust.
A government with a tiny, or non-existent, majority held to ransom by fringe euro-sceptic fanatics.
The British Left in retreat, allowing Tone to concentrate fully on his right flank.
For additional nerdery there's some extra charts on my twitter account. Ones that weren't pretty enough for the article.
A club supports its members. If you want to call that a protection racket go ahead. But then NATO is a protection racket too. The UK is a protection racket.
The Conservative party is a protection racket... (hang on, you might have a point on that one.)
Rentoul has cheered me up no end:
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-referendum-final-say-leave-split-remain-a8713046.html
Look at the two markets:
Will UK leave by 29 March? No: 1.61 Back, 1,65 Lay
When will Commons pass Brexit vote? Not before 30 March: 1.56 Back, 1.6 Lay
So odds are within a whisker of identical.
Assuming that if the vote passes we 100% do leave (seems reasonable) then if vote doesn't pass then there is only a miniscule chance (literally about 2% - ie difference between 1.56 and 1.61) of leaving on 29 March.
Iraq was a terrible mistake but... just look at how poor the other PMs have been.
This is a chart format I was trying to figure out but couldn't get it quite clean enough for the articles.
I'm beginning to wonder if the British public aren't, collectively, an epic set of pollster trolls.
I think 9/11 took away a lot of Blair's focus on his second term.
Also the decision to back Bush over Iraq in my opinion was in part , not to have the perception of a Labour Party been anti American.
Especially with the Conservative Party at the time been even more keen in support of Bush.
Major has gone up in my estimation.
The deal he got at Maastricht looks brilliant in comparison to Mays best efforts in the present day.
Thatcher was many things, but there is little to no evidence she was willing to behave in a way that is not honest or moral in exchange for money.
https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/venal
If anyone came closest to that it was Blair - and I don't remotely think he was.
We could, of course, taken the EU to the WTO for illegal restraint of trade if we were not a member
My view is that an illegal ban should never have been imposed.
https://twitter.com/Tony_Robinson/status/1081939186138128385
He's an out and out Leaver and has been since the 1970s.
A new YouGov poll of 25,000 people has found that the Tories are now on 40 points - while Jeremy Corbyn's Labour are lagging behind on just 34 points.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6562311/Tories-six-point-lead-Labour-despite-Brexit-civil-war.html
There's the obvious decrease of union power, but also before her there was a focus on full employment as a requirement and then controlling inflation as an aspiration. Since her controlling inflation is the requirement and high employment is an aspiration.
The "Labour isn't working" was one of the most cynically dishonest campaigns ever (and only really took off because of Dennis Healey making a fuss about it).
And also to file a complaint about the timing.
Blair and Clinton were very close. When Bush was elected, Clinton warned Blair that you could only be for or against him - nothing in the middle. Blair decided (disastrously) that he had to be for.
Blair once asked Alex Ferguson what he would do with a star player who would not support the Manager, or play for the Team. Fergy said get rid of him. Blair asked 'what if you can't'. 'Then you have a problem', the great man replied.
Now I wonder who Blair had in mind?
And a lot wrong behind her back?
or maybe:
And little right etc etc.
There's a quip in there somewhere.
What would they want in return? Wouldn't they want a clear choice on the Referendum question e.g. Remain or the Deal, No Deal being the default option if there is no referendum?
One of the ironies of Taking Back Control is that we will, probably more than ever, need the consent of others for whatever it is that we finally decide we want to do.
Edit: Also to say enjoying the articles!
I'd eliminate the Greens as well - too many vegans and other assorted weirdos. Juncker and George Brown perhaps a bit to keen on the bottle, but you'd need to be pissed to do the job.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/05/labour-faces-mass-challenge-over-brexit-policy-second-referendum
The Russian intelligence agency behind the Salisbury nerve agent attack has been dismantled in the UK and will remain out of action for years to come, according to government sources.
The threat posed by the GRU, which carried out the attempted assassination of Skripal last March, has been severely curtailed as a result of the counter-terror investigation that exposed the agents who carried out the attack.
Separate sources have told The Telegraph that details of the plot have been well established, including the chain of command...
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/01/06/uk-joined-dots-salisbury-novichok-attack-vladimir-putin/
Seamus and Jezza still aren't convinced and require more evidence.
https://calendar.parliament.uk/calendar/Commons/All/2019/1/9/Daily
Why the rush? - there's still nearly 12 weeks to go after all.
The class difference between Ferguson and Blair is immense. The former was prepared to sell title winning legends. The latter wasn't willing to sack a disgruntled Chancellor while the PM had a landslide majority.