No deal is not an end position but a good starting point from which to negotiate with the EU. We would be able to negotiate the Withdrawal agreement in parallel with the Free Trade Agreement, a far better bargaining position for the UK.
Business would have to cope with two changes in import/export arrangements (first to WTO then to FTA with EU markets) but the bulk of UK GDP trade is domestic and not import/export business with EU countries. Services are largely unaffected anyway in the real world.
Without the backstop there will never be a Withdrawal Agreement or Free Trade Agreement with the EU, our largest market, as they have made abundantly clear
Interesting thread. The government has been banging the (false) drum of a Bad Deal being worse than No Deal for so long that no-one believes them. They won't support a Bad Deal thinking No Deal is actually worse.
You’d have to believe that any deal was better than no deal to support May’s deal. I can’t see that argument covering many if any. The EU and the May both missed a trick by not making a trade deal the focus of the negotiations. Without the certainty or even likelihood of any acceptable let alone attractive trade deal, no deal is a much more attractive option than otherwise.
Interesting thread. The government has been banging the (false) drum of a Bad Deal being worse than No Deal for so long that no-one believes them. They won't support a Bad Deal thinking No Deal is actually worse.
You’d have to believe that any deal was better than no deal to support May’s deal. I can’t see that argument covering many if any. The EU and the May both missed a trick by not making a trade deal the focus of the negotiations. Without the certainty or even likelihood of any acceptable let alone attractive trade deal, no deal is a much more attractive option than otherwise.
No Deal means by far the worst economic damage of any Brexit option, Scotland potentially voting for independence and Northern Ireland for a United Ireland.
Nothing much she can do? Time will have more or less run out to do anything?
She could, and indeed ought to, resign.
We'll be more or less just 8 weeks from leaving thew EU without a deal... I'm not sure the resignation of the PM in such circumstances would be exactly ideal?
I'm sure she will resign by the Summer but it's her duty to remain and not leave Downing St. during the initial phase of our "No Deal" exit.
Okay, ostensibly this is about sealing the deal and finally humiliating the Political Elite. But I wonder if something Freudian is at play here. Brendan will have a far better time of it if Brexit is reversed - all those commissions for lofty articles about the great Brexit betrayal - than if he has to side with the grubby reality of Brexit impoverishment. Seems a weird position to take suddenly just as No Deal is so close you can almost touch it.
May will simply wait for the Grieve amendment to kick in.
Then once MPs comfortably reject EUref2 and Norway plus, probably by bigger margins than they reject the Deal, the Deal becomes the default alternative to No Deal
Interesting thread. The government has been banging the (false) drum of a Bad Deal being worse than No Deal for so long that no-one believes them. They won't support a Bad Deal thinking No Deal is actually worse.
You’d have to believe that any deal was better than no deal to support May’s deal. I can’t see that argument covering many if any. The EU and the May both missed a trick by not making a trade deal the focus of the negotiations. Without the certainty or even likelihood of any acceptable let alone attractive trade deal, no deal is a much more attractive option than otherwise.
No Deal means by far the worst economic damage of any Brexit option, Scotland potentially voting for independence and Northern Ireland for a United Ireland.
Any Deal is better than No Deal
Knowing how fond you are of polls, you’ll realise that puts you in the minority of Tory Party members according to YouGov. You need to come up with something a lot more original than Project Fear to make that argument stick. Thought you’d have realised that by now.
May will simply wait for the Grieve amendment to kick in.
Then once MPs comfortably reject EUref2 and Norway plus, probably by bigger margins than they reject the Deal, the Deal becomes the default alternative to No Deal
Not true. Labour policy is officially to support EURef2 as a last resort.
Why should 100 Labour Remainers break a three line whip to save a Tory PMs hated deal when they can hold out for a referendum? Labour+SNP+LD etc backing EURef2 has more support than May's Deal.
Nothing much she can do? Time will have more or less run out to do anything?
She could, and indeed ought to, resign.
We'll be more or less just 8 weeks from leaving thew EU without a deal... I'm not sure the resignation of the PM in such circumstances would be exactly ideal?
I'm sure she will resign by the Summer but it's her duty to remain and not leave Downing St. during the initial phase of our "No Deal" exit.
Given if we leave with No Deal in March, the markets will be crashing, companies leaving, food shortages, huge tailbacks at Dover and Sturgeon likely pushing indyref2 and chaos in Ireland any PM will find their hands full.
Changing PM would be as much use as changing the Captain on the Titanic after hitting the iceberg
Okay, ostensibly this is about sealing the deal and finally humiliating the Political Elite. But I wonder if something Freudian is at play here. Brendan will have a far better time of it if Brexit is reversed - all those commissions for lofty articles about the great Brexit betrayal - than if he has to side with the grubby reality of Brexit impoverishment. Seems a weird position to take suddenly just as No Deal is so close you can almost touch it.
How on earth is there time to organize a second referendum? We leave the EU within weeks (its now even within one yearly quarter)
The reason this is going to end in a No Deal exit is because so much time has been wasted going round and round and round in circles about complete nonsense. The more people have obsessed about a second referendum or all the other various ways of overturning the first referendum result, the more the UK's position has been confused... And all the time the clock has been running down.
Admittedly having Theresa's vanity election didn't help either so there's fault on both sides but seriously we leave within weeks. People need to get real.
Nothing much she can do? Time will have more or less run out to do anything?
She could, and indeed ought to, resign.
We'll be more or less just 8 weeks from leaving thew EU without a deal... I'm not sure the resignation of the PM in such circumstances would be exactly ideal?
I'm sure she will resign by the Summer but it's her duty to remain and not leave Downing St. during the initial phase of our "No Deal" exit.
Given if we leave with No Deal in March, the markets will be crashing, companies leaving, food shortages, huge tailbacks at Dover and Sturgeon likely pushing indyref2 and chaos in Ireland any PM will find their hands full.
Changing PM would be as much use as changing the Captain on the Titanic after hitting the iceberg
We have not hit the iceberg yet but May is insisting upon not changing course while saying nothing has changed repeatedly as the iceberg gets nearer.
Nothing much she can do? Time will have more or less run out to do anything?
She could, and indeed ought to, resign.
We'll be more or less just 8 weeks from leaving thew EU without a deal... I'm not sure the resignation of the PM in such circumstances would be exactly ideal?
I'm sure she will resign by the Summer but it's her duty to remain and not leave Downing St. during the initial phase of our "No Deal" exit.
Given if we leave with No Deal in March, the markets will be crashing, companies leaving, food shortages, huge tailbacks at Dover and Sturgeon likely pushing indyref2 and chaos in Ireland any PM will find their hands full.
Have you started stock piling baked beans and soup yet?
Interesting thread. The government has been banging the (false) drum of a Bad Deal being worse than No Deal for so long that no-one believes them. They won't support a Bad Deal thinking No Deal is actually worse.
You’d have to believe that any deal was better than no deal to support May’s deal. I can’t see that argument covering many if any. The EU and the May both missed a trick by not making a trade deal the focus of the negotiations. Without the certainty or even likelihood of any acceptable let alone attractive trade deal, no deal is a much more attractive option than otherwise.
No Deal means by far the worst economic damage of any Brexit option, Scotland potentially voting for independence and Northern Ireland for a United Ireland.
Any Deal is better than No Deal
Knowing how fond you are of polls, you’ll realise that puts you in the minority of Tory Party members according to YouGov. You need to come up with something a lot more original than Project Fear to make that argument stick. Thought you’d have realised that by now.
I do realise that but then most Labour movers want EUref2 and Remain and Corbyn opposes that too.
Labour and Tory members are on the extreme ends of the Brexit divide ie Remain or No Deal. The average voter is far more supportive of the Deal pitted against those two extremes head to head
Okay, ostensibly this is about sealing the deal and finally humiliating the Political Elite. But I wonder if something Freudian is at play here. Brendan will have a far better time of it if Brexit is reversed - all those commissions for lofty articles about the great Brexit betrayal - than if he has to side with the grubby reality of Brexit impoverishment. Seems a weird position to take suddenly just as No Deal is so close you can almost touch it.
How on earth is there time to organize a second referendum? We leave the EU within weeks (its now even within one yearly quarter)
The reason this is going to end in a No Deal exit is because so much time has been wasted going round and round and round in circles about complete nonsense. The more people have obsessed about a second referendum or all the other various ways of overturning the first referendum result, the more the UK's position has been confused... And all the time the clock has been running down.
Admittedly having Theresa's vanity election didn't help either so there's fault on both sides but seriously we leave within weeks. People need to get real.
I fear you are right. I am a mix of terrified and angry beyond words. Both myself and my wife rely on medication, and Hancock's panglossian December letter telling GPs and pharmacists that everything is fine does not fill me with relief.
Apparently on no account are GPs or pharmacists to allow patients stockpiling of meds.
Interesting thread. The government has been banging the (false) drum of a Bad Deal being worse than No Deal for so long that no-one believes them. They won't support a Bad Deal thinking No Deal is actually worse.
You’d have to believe that any deal was better than no deal to support May’s deal. I can’t see that argument covering many if any. The EU and the May both missed a trick by not making a trade deal the focus of the negotiations. Without the certainty or even likelihood of any acceptable let alone attractive trade deal, no deal is a much more attractive option than otherwise.
No Deal means by far the worst economic damage of any Brexit option, Scotland potentially voting for independence and Northern Ireland for a United Ireland.
Any Deal is better than No Deal
Knowing how fond you are of polls, you’ll realise that puts you in the minority of Tory Party members according to YouGov. You need to come up with something a lot more original than Project Fear to make that argument stick. Thought you’d have realised that by now.
I do realise that but then most Labour movers want EUref2 and Remain and Corbyn opposes that too.
Labour and Tory members are on the extreme ends of the Brexit divide ie Remain or No Deal. The average voter is far more supportive of the Deal pitted against those two extremes head to head
The average voter, if there actually is such a thing, typically votes for Labour or the Conservative and probably wants both to start focusing on other issues. Those who didn’t want Brexit had the chance to vote LibDem in 2017 - and spurned it.
I've just broken a betting red line of mine. I only ever bet on an objective assessment of value and never with my heart. But I've just piled onto "No Revoke" at 1/10, even though I don't think it is value, because the immense pleasure I'll get from losing the bet with a revocation of A50 and cancelling Brexit will be so immense, I'll gladly add to PP's coffers.
Ah the emotional hedge. As a pro I pride myself in never doing that. But, like you, I do occasionally succumb. Like, I have money on Trump winning WH2020. Wither that thought!
May will simply wait for the Grieve amendment to kick in.
Then once MPs comfortably reject EUref2 and Norway plus, probably by bigger margins than they reject the Deal, the Deal becomes the default alternative to No Deal
Not true. Labour policy is officially to support EURef2 as a last resort.
Why should 100 Labour Remainers break a three line whip to save a Tory PMs hated deal when they can hold out for a referendum? Labour+SNP+LD etc backing EURef2 has more support than May's Deal.
You clearly have not bothered to read a word I wrote.
As I said once the Commons votes against EUref2 too, which it will given the vast majority of Tory Mps, DUP MPs and a number of Labour MPs oppose it, then even if most Labour MPs voted for EUref2 it will still fail. There will be no prospect of holding out for a referendum anymore, the Commons will have rejected it.
I also think most Labour MPs in Leave seats will prefer May's Deal to EUref2 and there is more support for May's Deal than EUref2.
Less than 150 MPs voted against invoking Article 50 or for the SM and CU last year, at least 215 will likely vote for May's Deal
Isn't revoking Art 50 the same as saying we will Remain? Would this Parliament ever vote again to invoke Art 50? When is a fig-leaf not even that?
Yes it is. The bet is "UK to revoke Article 50 before 30-03-2019 and end Brexit?" You can get 1/10 on "No Revoke" on Betfair as well as Paddy Power.
10% tax free return in under three months (40% pa) for those who believe revocation is impossible.
EDIT: I'm not betting on this as, though I believe it is unlikely, I do believe it is possible with a greater than 10% probability - but do your own assessment.
I've just broken a betting red line of mine. I only ever bet on an objective assessment of value and never with my heart. But I've just piled onto "No Revoke" at 1/10, even though I don't think it is value, because the immense pleasure I'll get from losing the bet with a revocation of A50 and cancelling Brexit will be so immense, I'll gladly add to PP's coffers.
I have a friend who uses political betting as a stabiliser to their political views, betting purely on outcomes she doesn't want to happen. She was gutted after the Brexit vote, but a few hundred quid richer to take the edge off.
I rely on people like your friend to give me an edge on my political betting and it's worked well. But now I've joined your friend! A temporary lapse on my part I hope.
Hard to read this (excellent) summary and not conclude that the 4/6 available on the deal NOT passing is the bet of a lifetime.
I agree with Alastair that TM's best target is remainer MPs. There are more of them and they are less ideological. She needs to kill off the last unicorn (the 2nd referendum) and force the House to confront No Deal, make it clear that she is prepared to allow it to happen. Say to MPs, "Do you really want that? Ok, so go ahead. Make my day."
Blackmail, in other words, and quite right too. The approach is perfectly logical. We're leaving, per the 2016 referendum, and there are 2 ways to do it, with a deal or without one, and with a deal means this deal because there is no other deal and nor can there be. So choose.
I think the ramping up in public of No Deal 'planning' (lol) indicates that this is the plan. I hope it is because it is the right one and I do want the Deal to pass.
I would prefer the No Dealers to win followed in short order by the UK becoming a basket case while the EU goes from strength to strengh. I find the motivation of the Leavers to be so repulsive that unless they are seen to reap what they have sown we'll never get rid of the shackles of Empire and our inate distrust of foreigners and the malign influence of the self serving right wing press.
An actual traitor.
Actually MaxPB no, not a traitor, although your use of the term is revealing. Roger, and I can see his point, takes the view that the antiquated and xenophobic views of many older leavers and newspapers need to be exposed to the catastrophic damage of a No Deal Brexit before the country can move on. He is resigned to the economic damage in order to make the country a better place to live, eventually. Not the attitude of a traitor.
Like your analysis. I too think the Deal will eventually pass with help from Labour.
But beyond that, it plays very misty for me:
- Will the help be official or not? - Will it lead to a summer GE? - Would TM have to step down?
If you can answer me these, and the answers are good, I think we have it, you and I.
No the help will not be official but last resort and Labour backbenchers only not front bench It may lead to a summer GE once the Deal is passed and if the DUP them VONC the government May could still lead the Tories at that general election given she has only said she will step down in 2022 and given the Tories at least tied Labour in most polls even after her Deal plan and she survived the no confidence vote in her she could still have a chance if winning it
Nothing much she can do? Time will have more or less run out to do anything?
She could, and indeed ought to, resign.
We'll be more or less just 8 weeks from leaving thew EU without a deal... I'm not sure the resignation of the PM in such circumstances would be exactly ideal?
I'm sure she will resign by the Summer but it's her duty to remain and not leave Downing St. during the initial phase of our "No Deal" exit.
Given if we leave with No Deal in March, the markets will be crashing, companies leaving, food shortages, huge tailbacks at Dover and Sturgeon likely pushing indyref2 and chaos in Ireland any PM will find their hands full.
Changing PM would be as much use as changing the Captain on the Titanic after hitting the iceberg
We have not hit the iceberg yet but May is insisting upon not changing course while saying nothing has changed repeatedly as the iceberg gets nearer.
Theresa has bet the farm on enough MPs coming round through sheer panic as the horror of No Deal lumbers into view. Unfortunately, too many MPs are positively smacking their lips at the prospect: the Corbynites because the ensuing mayhem will discredit capitalism; the Moggites because the ensuing mayhem will discredit liberal democracy and we can return to a, shall we say, more medieval form of social order.
Nothing much she can do? Time will have more or less run out to do anything?
She could, and indeed ought to, resign.
We'll be more or less just 8 weeks from leaving thew EU without a deal... I'm not sure the resignation of the PM in such circumstances would be exactly ideal?
I'm sure she will resign by the Summer but it's her duty to remain and not leave Downing St. during the initial phase of our "No Deal" exit.
Given if we leave with No Deal in March, the markets will be crashing, companies leaving, food shortages, huge tailbacks at Dover and Sturgeon likely pushing indyref2 and chaos in Ireland any PM will find their hands full.
Have you started stock piling baked beans and soup yet?
Nothing much she can do? Time will have more or less run out to do anything?
She could, and indeed ought to, resign.
We'll be more or less just 8 weeks from leaving thew EU without a deal... I'm not sure the resignation of the PM in such circumstances would be exactly ideal?
I'm sure she will resign by the Summer but it's her duty to remain and not leave Downing St. during the initial phase of our "No Deal" exit.
Given if we leave with No Deal in March, the markets will be crashing, companies leaving, food shortages, huge tailbacks at Dover and Sturgeon likely pushing indyref2 and chaos in Ireland any PM will find their hands full.
Changing PM would be as much use as changing the Captain on the Titanic after hitting the iceberg
We have not hit the iceberg yet but May is insisting upon not changing course while saying nothing has changed repeatedly as the iceberg gets nearer.
The iceberg is No Deal, for which the blame will lie entirely with the ERG, DUP and Corbyn
Nothing much she can do? Time will have more or less run out to do anything?
She could, and indeed ought to, resign.
We'll be more or less just 8 weeks from leaving thew EU without a deal... I'm not sure the resignation of the PM in such circumstances would be exactly ideal?
I'm sure she will resign by the Summer but it's her duty to remain and not leave Downing St. during the initial phase of our "No Deal" exit.
Given if we leave with No Deal in March, the markets will be crashing, companies leaving, food shortages, huge tailbacks at Dover and Sturgeon likely pushing indyref2 and chaos in Ireland any PM will find their hands full.
Have you started stock piling baked beans and soup yet?
I have.
And I plan to top up a lot more in next month, before everyone else starts panic buying.
Surely we've got about two weeks for May's deal to get through but after around 21st January that's it. Time is pretty much up and the only option becomes No Deal?
All these various options and scenarios just seem far-fetched to me given how time has basically run out...
You can bet on No Deal. Ladbrokes and Coral are giving 3/1 "Uk To Leave Eu With No Brexit Deal Before 1st April 2019".
But there is nowhere you can take the other side of the bet i'e, that there won't be a "No Deal" outcome. Interesting. The probability of no "No Deal" is obviously higher than the 75% implied by the Ladbrokes and Coral offer. I suspect the probability is much higher and no bookie wants to take it on, even to balance their books.
Nothing much she can do? Time will have more or less run out to do anything?
She could, and indeed ought to, resign.
We'll be more or less just 8 weeks from leaving thew EU without a deal... I'm not sure the resignation of the PM in such circumstances would be exactly ideal?
I'm sure she will resign by the Summer but it's her duty to remain and not leave Downing St. during the initial phase of our "No Deal" exit.
Given if we leave with No Deal in March, the markets will be crashing, companies leaving, food shortages, huge tailbacks at Dover and Sturgeon likely pushing indyref2 and chaos in Ireland any PM will find their hands full.
Have you started stock piling baked beans and soup yet?
I may well start at the end of next month
I'm not going to stockpile. Hope I'm not starving by May?
Like your analysis. I too think the Deal will eventually pass with help from Labour.
But beyond that, it plays very misty for me:
- Will the help be official or not? - Will it lead to a summer GE? - Would TM have to step down?
If you can answer me these, and the answers are good, I think we have it, you and I.
No the help will not be official but last resort and Labour backbenchers only not front bench It may lead to a summer GE once the Deal is passed and if the DUP them VONC the government May could still lead the Tories at that general election given she has only said she will step down in 2022 and given the Tories at least tied Labour in most polls even after her Deal plan and she survived the no confidence vote in her she could still have a chance if winning it
Like your analysis. I too think the Deal will eventually pass with help from Labour.
But beyond that, it plays very misty for me:
- Will the help be official or not? - Will it lead to a summer GE? - Would TM have to step down?
If you can answer me these, and the answers are good, I think we have it, you and I.
No the help will not be official but last resort and Labour backbenchers only not front bench It may lead to a summer GE once the Deal is passed and if the DUP them VONC the government May could still lead the Tories at that general election given she has only said she will step down in 2022 and given the Tories at least tied Labour in most polls even after her Deal plan and she survived the no confidence vote in her she could still have a chance if winning it
Far, far fewer Labour MPs are likely to wish to present themselves as obvious targets for deselection than you appear to imagine.
Interesting thread. The government has been banging the (false) drum of a Bad Deal being worse than No Deal for so long that no-one believes them. They won't support a Bad Deal thinking No Deal is actually worse.
This is exactly the same as the pre-referendum dynamic. Cameron, Osborne & co spent years talking about the EU and freedom of movement as huge negatives for the UK, then they did a huge and sudden u-turn. Millions just didn’t see that as credible and voted accordingly.
Mr. Stereotomy, increasing the time pressure? Giving space for warnings if we leave with no deal?
But presumably if MPs had voted in December and she was following this strategy, we'd still be having another vote in January, with the same time pressure
Nothing much she can do? Time will have more or less run out to do anything?
She could, and indeed ought to, resign.
We'll be more or less just 8 weeks from leaving thew EU without a deal... I'm not sure the resignation of the PM in such circumstances would be exactly ideal?
I'm sure she will resign by the Summer but it's her duty to remain and not leave Downing St. during the initial phase of our "No Deal" exit.
Given if we leave with No Deal in March, the markets will be crashing, companies leaving, food shortages, huge tailbacks at Dover and Sturgeon likely pushing indyref2 and chaos in Ireland any PM will find their hands full.
Have you started stock piling baked beans and soup yet?
I have.
And I plan to top up a lot more in next month, before everyone else starts panic buying.
Would you share your last tin of baked beans with me?
Literally Remain and Leave coming together over a tin of Heinz - Sainsbury's might do a Christmas ad about us in 50 years?
Nothing much she can do? Time will have more or less run out to do anything?
She could, and indeed ought to, resign.
We'll be more or less just 8 weeks from leaving thew EU without a deal... I'm not sure the resignation of the PM in such circumstances would be exactly ideal?
I'm sure she will resign by the Summer but it's her duty to remain and not leave Downing St. during the initial phase of our "No Deal" exit.
Given if we leave with No Deal in March, the markets will be crashing, companies leaving, food shortages, huge tailbacks at Dover and Sturgeon likely pushing indyref2 and chaos in Ireland any PM will find their hands full.
Have you started stock piling baked beans and soup yet?
I may well start at the end of next month
I'm not going to stockpile. Hope I'm not starving by May?
Well I suppose the sooner No Deal Brexiteers starve the sooner No Deal can be reversed with BINO or a return to the EU
Nothing much she can do? Time will have more or less run out to do anything?
She could, and indeed ought to, resign.
We'll be more or less just 8 weeks from leaving thew EU without a deal... I'm not sure the resignation of the PM in such circumstances would be exactly ideal?
I'm sure she will resign by the Summer but it's her duty to remain and not leave Downing St. during the initial phase of our "No Deal" exit.
Given if we leave with No Deal in March, the markets will be crashing, companies leaving, food shortages, huge tailbacks at Dover and Sturgeon likely pushing indyref2 and chaos in Ireland any PM will find their hands full.
Have you started stock piling baked beans and soup yet?
I may well start at the end of next month
I'm not going to stockpile. Hope I'm not starving by May?
Well I suppose the sooner No Deal Brexiteers starve the sooner No Deal can be reversed with BINO or a return to the EU
Like your analysis. I too think the Deal will eventually pass with help from Labour.
But beyond that, it plays very misty for me:
- Will the help be official or not? - Will it lead to a summer GE? - Would TM have to step down?
If you can answer me these, and the answers are good, I think we have it, you and I.
No the help will not be official but last resort and Labour backbenchers only not front bench It may lead to a summer GE once the Deal is passed and if the DUP them VONC the government May could still lead the Tories at that general election given she has only said she will step down in 2022 and given the Tories at least tied Labour in most polls even after her Deal plan and she survived the no confidence vote in her she could still have a chance if winning it
Like your analysis. I too think the Deal will eventually pass with help from Labour.
But beyond that, it plays very misty for me:
- Will the help be official or not? - Will it lead to a summer GE? - Would TM have to step down?
If you can answer me these, and the answers are good, I think we have it, you and I.
No the help will not be official but last resort and Labour backbenchers only not front bench It may lead to a summer GE once the Deal is passed and if the DUP them VONC the government May could still lead the Tories at that general election given she has only said she will step down in 2022 and given the Tories at least tied Labour in most polls even after her Deal plan and she survived the no confidence vote in her she could still have a chance if winning it
Far, far fewer Labour MPs are likely to wish to present themselves as obvious targets for deselection than you appear to imagine.
Yes I know petty partisan politics comes before all else with you but if EUref2 and Norway Plus are both voted down too by MPs then any MP who does not vote for May's Deal is voting for No Deal by default.
I think Brexit kills London's dominance in financial services under any Brexit scenario. Barring EEA or equivalent it will probably do the same for pharmaceuticals, which is another key industry. Automotive is also at risk. All very important sectors for the UK.
London will almost certainly still be the biggest European financial centre regardless but Paris and Frankfurt will close the gap. New York and Hong Kong though will take a clear lead globally
Specifically. If you are a medium-sized non European bank, you set up your European branch in London and serve the rest of Europe from there. With the UK outside of the EU there is no point in those banks remaining in the UK. Some will move to the EU; some will leave Europe entirely. Global and European banks will keep a presence in the UK. It's too important a market to miss, just as France, Germany etc are today. But instead of having major operations in London with satellites in other countries, the gravity will switch the other way. London has a specialty in multidisciplinary project work that it will probably retain for the best time being. The threat is to the transactional business where the meat of the industry lies.
The killer isn't market access, although that's important. It's regulation. It's not enough to be equivalent and follow the rules. You need to be compliant. Our regulated businesses are only compliant if the EU says they are. After Brexit, that is unlikely for financial services under any scenario and for chemicals and pharmaceuticals only if we take the full Single Market.
No the help will not be official but last resort and Labour backbenchers only not front bench It may lead to a summer GE once the Deal is passed and if the DUP them VONC the government May could still lead the Tories at that general election given she has only said she will step down in 2022 and given the Tories at least tied Labour in most polls even after her Deal plan and she survived the no confidence vote in her she could still have a chance if winning it
Cool. Let's go with that.
Deal passes, GE in June 2019, Corbyn v May, the EU still an issue but no longer dominating.
We could now have a crack at predicting the result of that election, but better not. It would be drifting into hubris territory.
Nothing much she can do? Time will have more or less run out to do anything?
She could, and indeed ought to, resign.
We'll be more or less just 8 weeks from leaving thew EU without a deal... I'm not sure the resignation of the PM in such circumstances would be exactly ideal?
I'm sure she will resign by the Summer but it's her duty to remain and not leave Downing St. during the initial phase of our "No Deal" exit.
Given if we leave with No Deal in March, the markets will be crashing, companies leaving, food shortages, huge tailbacks at Dover and Sturgeon likely pushing indyref2 and chaos in Ireland any PM will find their hands full.
Have you started stock piling baked beans and soup yet?
I have.
And I plan to top up a lot more in next month, before everyone else starts panic buying.
Would you share your last tin of baked beans with me?
Literally Remain and Leave coming together over a tin of Heinz - Sainsbury's might do a Christmas ad about us in 50 years?
Nothing much she can do? Time will have more or less run out to do anything?
She could, and indeed ought to, resign.
We'll be more or less just 8 weeks from leaving thew EU without a deal... I'm not sure the resignation of the PM in such circumstances would be exactly ideal?
I'm sure she will resign by the Summer but it's her duty to remain and not leave Downing St. during the initial phase of our "No Deal" exit.
Given if we leave with No Deal in March, the markets will be crashing, companies leaving, food shortages, huge tailbacks at Dover and Sturgeon likely pushing indyref2 and chaos in Ireland any PM will find their hands full.
Have you started stock piling baked beans and soup yet?
I have.
And I plan to top up a lot more in next month, before everyone else starts panic buying.
Nothing much she can do? Time will have more or less run out to do anything?
She could, and indeed ought to, resign.
We'll be more or less just 8 weeks from leaving thew EU without a deal... I'm not sure the resignation of the PM in such circumstances would be exactly ideal?
I'm sure she will resign by the Summer but it's her duty to remain and not leave Downing St. during the initial phase of our "No Deal" exit.
Given if we leave with No Deal in March, the markets will be crashing, companies leaving, food shortages, huge tailbacks at Dover and Sturgeon likely pushing indyref2 and chaos in Ireland any PM will find their hands full.
Have you started stock piling baked beans and soup yet?
I may well start at the end of next month
I'm not going to stockpile. Hope I'm not starving by May?
Well I suppose the sooner No Deal Brexiteers starve the sooner No Deal can be reversed with BINO or a return to the EU
Yep, that’s the way to convince people to change their minds. Sadly though, your lack of compassion or respect for democracy at work won’t happen.
Okay, ostensibly this is about sealing the deal and finally humiliating the Political Elite. But I wonder if something Freudian is at play here. Brendan will have a far better time of it if Brexit is reversed - all those commissions for lofty articles about the great Brexit betrayal - than if he has to side with the grubby reality of Brexit impoverishment. Seems a weird position to take suddenly just as No Deal is so close you can almost touch it.
How on earth is there time to organize a second referendum? We leave the EU within weeks (its now even within one yearly quarter)
The reason this is going to end in a No Deal exit is because so much time has been wasted going round and round and round in circles about complete nonsense. The more people have obsessed about a second referendum or all the other various ways of overturning the first referendum result, the more the UK's position has been confused... And all the time the clock has been running down.
Admittedly having Theresa's vanity election didn't help either so there's fault on both sides but seriously we leave within weeks. People need to get real.
I fear you are right. I am a mix of terrified and angry beyond words. Both myself and my wife rely on medication, and Hancock's panglossian December letter telling GPs and pharmacists that everything is fine does not fill me with relief.
Apparently on no account are GPs or pharmacists to allow patients stockpiling of meds.
In this country there used to be an unwritten principle guiding the Government to work pragmatically in the interests of the security and well-being of its people. That principle seems to have been withdrawn at some point around 2015/2016. More than a few of us didn't get the memo of notification.
Nothing much she can do? Time will have more or less run out to do anything?
She could, and indeed ought to, resign.
We'll be more or less just 8 weeks from leaving thew EU without a deal... I'm not sure the resignation of the PM in such circumstances would be exactly ideal?
I'm sure she will resign by the Summer but it's her duty to remain and not leave Downing St. during the initial phase of our "No Deal" exit.
Given if we leave with No Deal in March, the markets will be crashing, companies leaving, food shortages, huge tailbacks at Dover and Sturgeon likely pushing indyref2 and chaos in Ireland any PM will find their hands full.
Have you started stock piling baked beans and soup yet?
I have.
And I plan to top up a lot more in next month, before everyone else starts panic buying.
All my 80-something friends are doing it, having experienced rationing in their past lives. I'll start shortly. I don't remember rationing, only being told to clean our teeth in the dark in the 1973-74 crisis. So far, that crisis is much worse for the ordinary man and woman than this crisis, but give this one time ...
Nothing much she can do? Time will have more or less run out to do anything?
She could, and indeed ought to, resign.
We'll be more or less just 8 weeks from leaving thew EU without a deal... I'm not sure the resignation of the PM in such circumstances would be exactly ideal?
I'm sure she will resign by the Summer but it's her duty to remain and not leave Downing St. during the initial phase of our "No Deal" exit.
Given if we leave with No Deal in March, the markets will be crashing, companies leaving, food shortages, huge tailbacks at Dover and Sturgeon likely pushing indyref2 and chaos in Ireland any PM will find their hands full.
Have you started stock piling baked beans and soup yet?
I have.
And I plan to top up a lot more in next month, before everyone else starts panic buying.
Like your analysis. I too think the Deal will eventually pass with help from Labour.
But beyond that, it plays very misty for me:
- Will the help be official or not? - Will it lead to a summer GE? - Would TM have to step down?
If you can answer me these, and the answers are good, I think we have it, you and I.
No the help will not be official but last resort and Labour backbenchers only not front bench It may lead to a summer GE once the Deal is passed and if the DUP them VONC the government May could still lead the Tories at that general election given she has only said she will step down in 2022 and given the Tories at least tied Labour in most polls even after her Deal plan and she survived the no confidence vote in her she could still have a chance if winning it
Like your analysis. I too think the Deal will eventually pass with help from Labour.
But beyond that, it plays very misty for me:
- Will the help be official or not? - Will it lead to a summer GE? - Would TM have to step down?
If you can answer me these, and the answers are good, I think we have it, you and I.
No the help will not be official but last resort and Labour backbenchers only not front bench It may lead to a summer GE once the Deal is passed and if the DUP them VONC the government May could still lead the Tories at that general election given she has only said she will step down in 2022 and given the Tories at least tied Labour in most polls even after her Deal plan and she survived the no confidence vote in her she could still have a chance if winning it
Far, far fewer Labour MPs are likely to wish to present themselves as obvious targets for deselection than you appear to imagine.
Yes I know petty partisan politics comes before all else with you but if EUref2 and Norway Plus are both voted down too by MPs then any MP who does not vote for May's Deal is voting for No Deal by default.
End of conversation
The Tories have never been guided by anything but their narrow party interests with regard to the EU. Cameron's 2013 pledge to hold a Referendum had everything to do with seeking party advantage by stemming the leakage of Tory votes to UKIP to avoid the risk of Ed Miliband being elected in 2015. No sign of the 'national interest' there.
Okay, ostensibly this is about sealing the deal and finally humiliating the Political Elite. But I wonder if something Freudian is at play here. Brendan will have a far better time of it if Brexit is reversed - all those commissions for lofty articles about the great Brexit betrayal - than if he has to side with the grubby reality of Brexit impoverishment. Seems a weird position to take suddenly just as No Deal is so close you can almost touch it.
A very good point.
I suspect that there are many 'professional' Leavers who secretly love the idea of Brexit being cancelled. It would provide a more than ample boost to many a career.
Nothing much she can do? Time will have more or less run out to do anything?
She could, and indeed ought to, resign.
We'll be more or less just 8 weeks from leaving thew EU without a deal... I'm not sure the resignation of the PM in such circumstances would be exactly ideal?
I'm sure she will resign by the Summer but it's her duty to remain and not leave Downing St. during the initial phase of our "No Deal" exit.
Given if we leave with No Deal in March, the markets will be crashing, companies leaving, food shortages, huge tailbacks at Dover and Sturgeon likely pushing indyref2 and chaos in Ireland any PM will find their hands full.
Have you started stock piling baked beans and soup yet?
I have.
And I plan to top up a lot more in next month, before everyone else starts panic buying.
All my 80-something friends are doing it, having experienced rationing in their past lives. I'll start shortly. I don't remember rationing, only being told to clean our teeth in the dark in the 1973-74 crisis. So far, that crisis is much worse for the ordinary man and woman than this crisis, but give this one time ...
Public Health England will be pleased as rationing could do wonders for the obesity/sugar "crisis"
Like your analysis. I too think the Deal will eventually pass with help from Labour.
But beyond that, it plays very misty for me:
- Will the help be official or not? - Will it lead to a summer GE? - Would TM have to step down?
If you can answer me these, and the answers are good, I think we have it, you and I.
No the help will not be official but last resort and Labour backbenchers only not front bench It may lead to a summer GE once the Deal is passed and if the DUP them VONC the government May could still lead the Tories at that general election given she has only said she will step down in 2022 and given the Tories at least tied Labour in most polls even after her Deal plan and she survived the no confidence vote in her she could still have a chance if winning it
Like your analysis. I too think the Deal will eventually pass with help from Labour.
But beyond that, it plays very misty for me:
- Will the help be official or not? - Will it lead to a summer GE? - Would TM have to step down?
If you can answer me these, and the answers are good, I think we have it, you and I.
No the help will not be official but last resort and Labour backbenchers only not front bench It may lead to a summer GE once the Deal is passed and if the DUP them VONC the government May could still lead the Tories at that general election given she has only said she will step down in 2022 and given the Tories at least tied Labour in most polls even after her Deal plan and she survived the no confidence vote in her she could still have a chance if winning it
Far, far fewer Labour MPs are likely to wish to present themselves as obvious targets for deselection than you appear to imagine.
Yes I know petty partisan politics comes before all else with you but if EUref2 and Norway Plus are both voted down too by MPs then any MP who does not vote for May's Deal is voting for No Deal by default.
End of conversation
The Tories have never been guided by anything but their narrow party interests with regard to the EU. Cameron's 2013 pledge to hold a Referendum had everything to do with seeking party advantage by stemming the leakage of Tory votes to UKIP to avoid the risk of Ed Miliband being elected in 2015. No sign of the 'national interest' there.
Nail and head. I deeply regret that the Labour Party is not acting in the national interests now, but it was unquestionably Cameron and Osborne who started it. And how the latter in his ES editorials has the gall to occlude his personal role in the whole fiasco is beyond me.
I don't think No Deal will lead to starvation, but it will be an unacceptable outcome for a wide range of stakeholders and is therefore unviable. Which doesn't mean it won't happen. But I would give it a life expectancy of weeks at most. Full membership is potentially the quickest resolution at that point. The transition period is legally enabled by the Withdrawal Agreement, but that window will have closed.
Hard to read this (excellent) summary and not conclude that the 4/6 available on the deal NOT passing is the bet of a lifetime.
I agree with Alastair that TM's best target is remainer MPs. There are more of them and they are less ideological. She needs to kill off the last unicorn (the 2nd referendum) and force the House to confront No Deal, make it clear that she is prepared to allow it to happen. Say to MPs, "Do you really want that? Ok, so go ahead. Make my day."
Blackmail, in other words, and quite right too. The approach is perfectly logical. We're leaving, per the 2016 referendum, and there are 2 ways to do it, with a deal or without one, and with a deal means this deal because there is no other deal and nor can there be. So choose.
I think the ramping up in public of No Deal 'planning' (lol) indicates that this is the plan. I hope it is because it is the right one and I do want the Deal to pass.
I would prefer the No Dealers to win followed in short order by the UK becoming a basket case while the EU goes from strength to strengh. I find the motivation of the Leavers to be so repulsive that unless they are seen to reap what they have sown we'll never get rid of the shackles of Empire and our inate distrust of foreigners and the malign influence of the self serving right wing press.
An actual traitor.
Actually MaxPB no, not a traitor, although your use of the term is revealing. Roger, and I can see his point, takes the view that the antiquated and xenophobic views of many older leavers and newspapers need to be exposed to the catastrophic damage of a No Deal Brexit before the country can move on. He is resigned to the economic damage in order to make the country a better place to live, eventually. Not the attitude of a traitor.
The real traitors are the leavers who actively militated for an act of economic, social, cultural and political self harm against the country they dishonestly profess to love.
One thing the No-Deal MPs are forgetting is how this looks to other countries. The EU negotiated for two years with Britain over a withdrawal agreement and it was turned down. Why would any other country spend years negotiating any sort of FTA agreement with Britain with the risk that it wouldn't get through Parliament?
By rejecting this agreement with our closest trading partner, with an organisation we have been a member of for over 40 years, for no very clear reasons, or none that will be discernible or understandable to foreign governments, we have made ourselves look fundamentally unserious as a country, as a prospective partner. No Deal doesn't just affect us immediately; it will affect the perception of Britain for a long time to come. It will not be a good perception.
Grieve has said he won’t stand at the next election to buy off moves to deselect him at Beaconsfield.
You keep saying this. What is your source for it? As far as I can ascertain, it is simply not true that he has said he is standing down, nor is it on his local party twitter feed that they are looking for a new candidate (bearing in mind it's a plum seat).
No the help will not be official but last resort and Labour backbenchers only not front bench It may lead to a summer GE once the Deal is passed and if the DUP them VONC the government May could still lead the Tories at that general election given she has only said she will step down in 2022 and given the Tories at least tied Labour in most polls even after her Deal plan and she survived the no confidence vote in her she could still have a chance if winning it
Like your analysis. I too think the Deal will eventually pass with help from Labour.
But beyond that, it plays very misty for me:
- Will the help be official or not? - Will it lead to a summer GE? - Would TM have to step down?
If you can answer me these, and the answers are good, I think we have it, you and I.
No the help will not be official but last resort and Labour backbenchers only not front bench It may lead to a summer GE once the Deal is passed and if the DUP them VONC the government May could still lead the Tories at that general election given she has only said she will step down in 2022 and given the Tories at least tied Labour in most polls even after her Deal plan and she survived the no confidence vote in her she could still have a chance if winning it
Far, far fewer Labour MPs are likely to wish to present themselves as obvious targets for deselection than you appear to imagine.
Yes I know petty partisan politics comes before all else with you but if EUref2 and Norway Plus are both voted down too by MPs then any MP who does not vote for May's Deal is voting for No Deal by default.
End of conversation
The Tories have never been guided by anything but their narrow party interests with regard to the EU. Cameron's 2013 pledge to hold a Referendum had everything to do with seeking party advantage by stemming the leakage of Tory votes to UKIP to avoid the risk of Ed Miliband being elected in 2015. No sign of the 'national interest' there.
Nail and head. I deeply regret that the Labour Party is not acting in the national interests now, but it was unquestionably Cameron and Osborne who started it. And how the latter in his ES editorials has the gall to occlude his personal role in the whole fiasco is beyond me.
Nothing much she can do? Time will have more or less run out to do anything?
She could, and indeed ought to, resign.
We'll be more or less just 8 weeks from leaving thew EU without a deal... I'm not sure the resignation of the PM in such circumstances would be exactly ideal?
I'm sure she will resign by the Summer but it's her duty to remain and not leave Downing St. during the initial phase of our "No Deal" exit.
Given if we leave with No Deal in March, the markets will be crashing, companies leaving, food shortages, huge tailbacks at Dover and Sturgeon likely pushing indyref2 and chaos in Ireland any PM will find their hands full.
Have you started stock piling baked beans and soup yet?
I have.
And I plan to top up a lot more in next month, before everyone else starts panic buying.
All my 80-something friends are doing it, having experienced rationing in their past lives. I'll start shortly. I don't remember rationing, only being told to clean our teeth in the dark in the 1973-74 crisis. So far, that crisis is much worse for the ordinary man and woman than this crisis, but give this one time ...
Public Health England will be pleased as rationing could do wonders for the obesity/sugar "crisis"
All these remainers eating baked beans three times a day occasionally livening their lives up by having a celebratory meal of Spam, tinned potatoes and tinned carrots. Us leavers will be browsing the shops full of Scottish Scallops, Icelandic Cod, avocados, kiwi fruit all at discounted prices. Goeff Norcott will be making jokes about pasty looking remainers standing on their own wallowing in their own methane production.
Like your analysis. I too think the Deal will eventually pass with help from Labour.
But beyond that, it plays very misty for me:
- Will the help be official or not? - Will it lead to a summer GE? - Would TM have to step down?
If you can answer me these, and the answers are good, I think we have it, you and I.
Far, far fewer Labour MPs are likely to wish to present themselves as obvious targets for deselection than you appear to imagine.
Yes I know petty partisan politics comes before all else with you but if EUref2 and Norway Plus are both voted down too by MPs then any MP who does not vote for May's Deal is voting for No Deal by default.
End of conversation
The Tories have never been guided by anything but their narrow party interests with regard to the EU. Cameron's 2013 pledge to hold a Referendum had everything to do with seeking party advantage by stemming the leakage of Tory votes to UKIP to avoid the risk of Ed Miliband being elected in 2015. No sign of the 'national interest' there.
Nail and head. I deeply regret that the Labour Party is not acting in the national interests now, but it was unquestionably Cameron and Osborne who started it. And how the latter in his ES editorials has the gall to occlude his personal role in the whole fiasco is beyond me.
The idea that Labour Remainers are likely to switch en masse to supporting May's Deal - which at the end of the day is a vote for Brexit - strikes me as naive and lacking in real insight here. Why on earth would they wish to put their careers at risk to save a Tory PM who has lost the confidence of much of her own party?Would they really wish to deny their own party the prospect of being able to fight a General Election with a commitment to clear up the 'Tory Brexit mess'?
Nothing much she can do? Time will have more or less run out to do anything?
She could, and indeed ought to, resign.
We'll be more or less just 8 weeks from leaving thew EU without a deal... I'm not sure the resignation of the PM in such circumstances would be exactly ideal?
I'm sure she will resign by the Summer but it's her duty to remain and not leave Downing St. during the initial phase of our "No Deal" exit.
Given if we leave with No Deal in March, the markets will be crashing, companies leaving, food shortages, huge tailbacks at Dover and Sturgeon likely pushing indyref2 and chaos in Ireland any PM will find their hands full.
Have you started stock piling baked beans and soup yet?
I have.
And I plan to top up a lot more in next month, before everyone else starts panic buying.
All my 80-something friends are doing it, having experienced rationing in their past lives. I'll start shortly. I don't remember rationing, only being told to clean our teeth in the dark in the 1973-74 crisis. So far, that crisis is much worse for the ordinary man and woman than this crisis, but give this one time ...
Public Health England will be pleased as rationing could do wonders for the obesity/sugar "crisis"
All these remainers eating baked beans three times a day occasionally livening their lives up by having a celebratory meal of Spam, tinned potatoes and tinned carrots. Us leavers will be browsing the shops full of Scottish Scallops, Icelandic Cod, avocados, kiwi fruit all at discounted prices. Goeff Norcott will be making jokes about pasty looking remainers standing on their own wallowing in their own methane production.
I suppose May would be 'Clever and Diligent' - so General Staff, not Leadership material.
Davis is clearly 'Stupid and Lazy' - one of the great majority.
If Boris were 'Clever and Lazy' that would say he was destined for great things - but I suspect he's more 'articulate and fluent' than 'clever'.
Who are the really dangerous ones - 'Stupid and Diligent'? Corbyn? He certainly hasn't wavered in his world view....
I read it and instantly thought of May. Stupid diligence is basically the only two words you need to describe her career. Funnily enough I really liked her when she first got into number 10. As recently as December I was still giving her the benefit of the doubt.
No the help will not be official but last resort and Labour backbenchers only not front bench It may lead to a summer GE once the Deal is passed and if the DUP them VONC the government May could still lead the Tories at that general election given she has only said she will step down in 2022 and given the Tories at least tied Labour in most polls even after her Deal plan and she survived the no confidence vote in her she could still have a chance if winning it
Like your analysis. I too think the Deal will eventually pass with help from Labour.
But beyond that, it plays very misty for me:
- Will the help be official or not? - Will it lead to a summer GE? - Would TM have to step down?
If you can answer me these, and the answers are good, I think we have it, you and I.
No the help will not be official but last resort and Labour backbenchers only not front bench It may lead to a summer GE once the Deal is passed and if the DUP them VONC the government May could still lead the Tories at that general election given she has only said she will step down in 2022 and given the Tories at least tied Labour in most polls even after her Deal plan and she survived the no confidence vote in her she could still have a chance if winning it
Far, far fewer Labour MPs are likely to wish to present themselves as obvious targets for deselection than you appear to imagine.
Yes I know petty partisan politics comes before all else with you but if EUref2 and Norway Plus are both voted down too by MPs then any MP who does not vote for May's Deal is voting for No Deal by default.
End of conversation
The Tories have never been guided by anything but their narrow party interests with regard to the EU. Cameron's 2013 pledge to hold a Referendum had everything to do with seeking party advantage by stemming the leakage of Tory votes to UKIP to avoid the risk of Ed Miliband being elected in 2015. No sign of the 'national interest' there.
Nail and head. I deeply regret that the Labour Party is not acting in the national interests now, but it was unquestionably Cameron and Osborne who started it. And how the latter in his ES editorials has the gall to occlude his personal role in the whole fiasco is beyond me.
Like your analysis. I too think the Deal will eventually pass with help from Labour.
But beyond that, it plays very misty for me:
- Will the help be official or not? - Will it lead to a summer GE? - Would TM have to step down?
If you can answer me these, and the answers are good, I think we have it, you and I.
No the help will not be official but last resort and Labour backbenchers only not front bench It may lead to a summer GE once the Deal is passed and if the DUP them VONC the government May could still lead the Tories at that general election given she has only said she will step down in 2022 and given the Tories at least tied Labour in most polls even after her Deal plan and she survived the no confidence vote in her she could still have a chance if winning it
If you can answer me these, and the answers are good, I think we have it, you and I.
No the help will not be official but last resort and Labour backbenchers only not front bench It may lead to a summer GE once the Deal is passed and if the DUP them VONC the government May could still lead the Tories at that general election given she has only said she will step down in 2022 and given the Tories at least tied Labour in most polls even after her Deal plan and she survived the no confidence vote in her she could still have a chance if winning it
Far, far fewer Labour MPs are likely to wish to present themselves as obvious targets for deselection than you appear to imagine.
Yes I know petty partisan politics comes before all else with you but if EUref2 and Norway Plus are both voted down too by MPs then any MP who does not vote for May's Deal is voting for No Deal by default.
End of conversation
The Tories have never been guided by anything but their narrow party interests with regard to the EU. Cameron's 2013 pledge to hold a Referendum had everything to do with seeking party advantage by stemming the leakage of Tory votes to UKIP to avoid the risk of Ed Miliband being elected in 2015. No sign of the 'national interest' there.
Cameron never had a philosophical base for his Premiership other than a possible entitlement; because he 'thought he'd be good it'. May at least has such a base; the Tories, right or wrong, are the 'British (or at least English) Patriotic Party, and anyone who opposes them must be ipso facto a traitor, or at least inclined that way.
Nothing much she can do? Time will have more or less run out to do anything?
She could, and indeed ought to, resign.
We'll be more or less just 8 weeks from leaving thew EU without a deal... I'm not sure the resignation of the PM in such circumstances would be exactly ideal?
I'm sure she will resign by the Summer but it's her duty to remain and not leave Downing St. during the initial phase of our "No Deal" exit.
Given if we leave with No Deal in March, the markets will be crashing, companies leaving, food shortages, huge tailbacks at Dover and Sturgeon likely pushing indyref2 and chaos in Ireland any PM will find their hands full.
Have you started stock piling baked beans and soup yet?
I have.
And I plan to top up a lot more in next month, before everyone else starts panic buying.
All my 80-something friends are doing it, having experienced rationing in their past lives. I'll start shortly. I don't remember rationing, only being told to clean our teeth in the dark in the 1973-74 crisis. So far, that crisis is much worse for the ordinary man and woman than this crisis, but give this one time ...
Public Health England will be pleased as rationing could do wonders for the obesity/sugar "crisis"
All these remainers eating baked beans three times a day occasionally livening their lives up by having a celebratory meal of Spam, tinned potatoes and tinned carrots. Us leavers will be browsing the shops full of Scottish Scallops, Icelandic Cod, avocados, kiwi fruit all at discounted prices. Goeff Norcott will be making jokes about pasty looking remainers standing on their own wallowing in their own methane production.
Like your analysis. I too think the Deal will eventually pass with help from Labour.
But beyond that, it plays very misty for me:
- Will the help be official or not? - Will it lead to a summer GE? - Would TM have to step down?
If you can answer me these, and the answers are good, I think we have it, you and I.
Far, far fewer Labour MPs are likely to wish to present themselves as obvious targets for deselection than you appear to imagine.
Yes I know petty partisan politics comes before all else with you but if EUref2 and Norway Plus are both voted down too by MPs then any MP who does not vote for May's Deal is voting for No Deal by default.
End of conversation
The Tories have never been guided by anything but their narrow party interests with regard to the EU. Cameron's 2013 pledge to hold a Referendum had everything to do with seeking party advantage by stemming the leakage of Tory votes to UKIP to avoid the risk of Ed Miliband being elected in 2015. No sign of the 'national interest' there.
Nail and head. I deeply regret that the Labour Party is not acting in the national interests now, but it was unquestionably Cameron and Osborne who started it. And how the latter in his ES editorials has the gall to occlude his personal role in the whole fiasco is beyond me.
The idea that Labour Remainers are likely to switch en masse to supporting May's Deal - which at the end of the day is a vote for Brexit - strikes me as naive and lacking in real insight here. Why on earth would they wish to put their careers at risk to save a Tory PM who has lost the confidence of much of her own party?Would they really wish to deny their own party the prospect of being able to fight a General Election with a commitment to clear up the 'Tory Brexit mess'?
The likeliest result of a No Deal Brexit with Corbyn having opposed EUref2 would be a surge of Labour Remainers to the LDs. Many Remainers only voted Labour last time to oppose a hard Brexit, if Corbyn enables a hard Brexit and No Deal he will get squeezed with a lot of Remainers switching to the LDs while Leavers stick with the Tories
I suppose May would be 'Clever and Diligent' - so General Staff, not Leadership material.
Davis is clearly 'Stupid and Lazy' - one of the great majority.
If Boris were 'Clever and Lazy' that would say he was destined for great things - but I suspect he's more 'articulate and fluent' than 'clever'.
Who are the really dangerous ones - 'Stupid and Diligent'? Corbyn? He certainly hasn't wavered in his world view....
I read it and instantly thought of May. Stupid diligence is basically the only two words you need to describe her career. Funnily enough I really liked her when she first got into number 10. As recently as December I was still giving her the benefit of the doubt.
She is stupid and obstinate.
I gave her the benefit of the doubt when she first became PM. I thought she might get a reasonable deal and have her party behind her. She seemed like a dull diligent Tory, nothing to shout home about but maybe dull diligence was what was needed. But the more decisions she made the less I thought of her - starting with her appointment of Johnson and Davis and her sacking of Osborne. Then that stupid conference speech, the refusal to listen to advice from people like Ivan Rogers, the refusal to consult Parliament, the hubristic election and the idiotic red lines. On and on it has gone, one cretinous decision after another - and now this ludicrous attempted bullying of the country and Parliament, this whole "my deal or nothing" nonsense as if the whole question of Britain's relationship with the EU should be boiled down to a vote of confidence or not in her. It's absurd.
That the Tory party has gone along with this simply shows that they are unfit to be in government.
We have two parties, neither of whom are acting in the national interest, both of whom are bovinely following leaders they know are not up to the job and whom they do not trust. Frankly, ropes and lampposts are the very minimum they deserve.
This is obviously a very high stakes bluff on the part of Mrs May. But she's not very good at it. It is widely known that you can't believe her and she caves. (Contrast her with the DUP). So she is going to cave but what to? Revoke or Ref2? GONU?
Because she is bluffing she won't have let many people in on her Plan B. But she will need advice on the merits of her Plan B and the logistics and minimum time needed.
I assume she is consulting Philip. Perhaps Lidington. Perhaps Rudd. Not the Leader of the House. Long shot - perhaps Grieve in strictest confidence?
Far, far fewer Labour MPs are likely to wish to present themselves as obvious targets for deselection than you appear to imagine.
The Tories have never been guided by anything but their narrow party interests with regard to the EU. Cameron's 2013 pledge to hold a Referendum had everything to do with seeking party advantage by stemming the leakage of Tory votes to UKIP to avoid the risk of Ed Miliband being elected in 2015. No sign of the 'national interest' there.
Nail and head. I deeply regret that the Labour Party is not acting in the national interests now, but it was unquestionably Cameron and Osborne who started it. And how the latter in his ES editorials has the gall to occlude his personal role in the whole fiasco is beyond me.
The idea that Labour Remainers are likely to switch en masse to supporting May's Deal - which at the end of the day is a vote for Brexit - strikes me as naive and lacking in real insight here. Why on earth would they wish to put their careers at risk to save a Tory PM who has lost the confidence of much of her own party?Would they really wish to deny their own party the prospect of being able to fight a General Election with a commitment to clear up the 'Tory Brexit mess'?
The likeliest result of a No Deal Brexit with Corbyn having opposed EUref2 would be a surge of Labour Remainers to the LDs. Many Remainers only voted Labour last time to oppose a hard Brexit, if Corbyn enables a hard Brexit and No Deal he will get squeezed with a lot of Remainers switching to the LDs while Leavers stick with the Tories
Poppycock! You still fail to understand that most voters - particularly Labour voters - do not share the Tory obsession with the Brexit issue. In so far as people do take notice, they are very likely to know who to blame for this mess.
This is obviously a very high stakes bluff on the part of Mrs May. But she's not very good at it. It is widely known that you can't believe her and she caves. (Contrast her with the DUP). So she is going to cave but what to? Revoke or Ref2? GONU?
Because she is bluffing she won't have let many people in on her Plan B. But she will need advice on the merits of her Plan B and the logistics and minimum time needed.
I assume she is consulting Philip. Perhaps Lidington. Perhaps Rudd. Not the Leader of the House. Long shot - perhaps Grieve in strictest confidence?
May effectively killed off her own deal when she told MPs that defeating it could mean no deal or no Brexit, thus holding out the prospect of achieving their desired outcome to both sets of her opponents. If she had merely said defeating it would lead to a no deal Brexit remainers might have been given more incentive to back her.
I suppose May would be 'Clever and Diligent' - so General Staff, not Leadership material.
Davis is clearly 'Stupid and Lazy' - one of the great majority.
If Boris were 'Clever and Lazy' that would say he was destined for great things - but I suspect he's more 'articulate and fluent' than 'clever'.
Who are the really dangerous ones - 'Stupid and Diligent'? Corbyn? He certainly hasn't wavered in his world view....
I read it and instantly thought of May. Stupid diligence is basically the only two words you need to describe her career. Funnily enough I really liked her when she first got into number 10. As recently as December I was still giving her the benefit of the doubt.
She is stupid and obstinate.
I gave her the benefit of the doubt when she first became PM. I thought she might get a reasonable deal and have her party behind her. She seemed like a dull diligent Tory, nothing to shout home about but maybe dull diligence was what was needed. But the more decisions she made the less I thought of her - starting with her appointment of Johnson and Davis and her sacking of Osborne. Then that stupid conference speech, the refusal to listen to advice from people like Ivan Rogers, the refusal to consult Parliament, the hubristic election and the idiotic red lines. On and on it has gone, one cretinous decision after another - and now this ludicrous attempted bullying of the country and Parliament, this whole "my deal or nothing" nonsense as if the whole question of Britain's relationship with the EU should be boiled down to a vote of confidence or not in her. It's absurd.
That the Tory party has gone along with this simply shows that they are unfit to be in government.
We have two parties, neither of whom are acting in the national interest, both of whom are bovinely following leaders they know are not up to the job and whom they do not trust. Frankly, ropes and lampposts are the very minimum they deserve.
Britain certainly has its problems, but things aren’t so bad that we have anything to learn from Italy.
I suppose May would be 'Clever and Diligent' - so General Staff, not Leadership material.
Davis is clearly 'Stupid and Lazy' - one of the great majority.
If Boris were 'Clever and Lazy' that would say he was destined for great things - but I suspect he's more 'articulate and fluent' than 'clever'.
Who are the really dangerous ones - 'Stupid and Diligent'? Corbyn? He certainly hasn't wavered in his world view....
I read it and instantly thought of May. Stupid diligence is basically the only two words you need to describe her career. Funnily enough I really liked her when she first got into number 10. As recently as December I was still giving her the benefit of the doubt.
She is stupid and obstinate.
I gave her the benefit of the doubt when she first became PM. I thought she might get a reasonable deal and have her party behind her. She seemed like a dull diligent Tory, nothing to shout home about but maybe dull diligence was what was needed. But the more decisions she made the less I thought of her - starting with her appointment of Johnson and Davis and her sacking of Osborne. Then that stupid conference speech, the refusal to listen to advice from people like Ivan Rogers, the refusal to consult Parliament, the hubristic election and the idiotic red lines. On and on it has gone, one cretinous decision after another - and now this ludicrous attempted bullying of the country and Parliament, this whole "my deal or nothing" nonsense as if the whole question of Britain's relationship with the EU should be boiled down to a vote of confidence or not in her. It's absurd.
That the Tory party has gone along with this simply shows that they are unfit to be in government.
We have two parties, neither of whom are acting in the national interest, both of whom are bovinely following leaders they know are not up to the job and whom they do not trust. Frankly, ropes and lampposts are the very minimum they deserve.
In fairness, regarding the appointments of DD and Boris, there was much talk at the time of 'You Brexit, you fix it', so perhaps Theresa can just about be forgiven for giving Leavers the chance to take some responsibility. Nevertheless, it was always blindingly obvious from the outset that that pair would resign at some point, so Theresa's faith was ludicrously misplaced.
Nothing much she can do? Time will have more or less run out to do anything?
She could, and indeed ought to, resign.
We'll be more or less just 8 weeks from leaving thew EU without a deal... I'm not sure the resignation of the PM in such circumstances would be exactly ideal?
I'm sure she will resign by the Summer but it's her duty to remain and not leave Downing St. during the initial phase of our "No Deal" exit.
Given if we leave with No Deal in March, the markets will be crashing, companies leaving, food shortages, huge tailbacks at Dover and Sturgeon likely pushing indyref2 and chaos in Ireland any PM will find their hands full.
Have you started stock piling baked beans and soup yet?
I have.
And I plan to top up a lot more in next month, before everyone else starts panic buying.
All my 80-something friends are doing it, having experienced rationing in their past lives. I'll start shortly. I don't remember rationing, only being told to clean our teeth in the dark in the 1973-74 crisis. So far, that crisis is much worse for the ordinary man and woman than this crisis, but give this one time ...
Public Health England will be pleased as rationing could do wonders for the obesity/sugar "crisis"
All these remainers eating baked beans three times a day occasionally livening their lives up by having a celebratory meal of Spam, tinned potatoes and tinned carrots. Us leavers will be browsing the shops full of Scottish Scallops, Icelandic Cod, avocados, kiwi fruit all at discounted prices. Goeff Norcott will be making jokes about pasty looking remainers standing on their own wallowing in their own methane production.
We won't be able to catch any cod off Iceland.
I don't know how any Kiwi fruit will reach us. A lot of the winter supplies come from Italy.
We might be OK for avocadoes, if ships from non-EU countries land as normal. Will they?
UK prices will rise though, if all fresh fruit and vegs. are in short supply.
No deal is not an end position but a good starting point from which to negotiate with the EU. We would be able to negotiate the Withdrawal agreement in parallel with the Free Trade Agreement, a far better bargaining position for the UK.
We can't get it now. So let's go for it later. When we'll be weaker.
Far, far fewer Labour MPs are likely to wish to present themselves as obvious targets for deselection than you appear to imagine.
The Tories have never been guided by anything but their narrow party interests est' there.
Nail and head. I deeply regret that the Labour Party is not fiasco is beyond me.
The idea that Labour Remainers are likely to switch en masse to supporting May's Deal - which at the end of the day is a vote for Brexit - strikes me as naive and lacking in real insight here. Why on earth would they wish to put their careers at risk to save a Tory PM who has lost the confidence of much of her own party?Would they really wish to deny their own party the prospect of being able to fight a General Election with a commitment to clear up the 'Tory Brexit mess'?
The likeliest result of a No Deal Brexit with Corbyn having opposed EUref2 would be a surge of Labour Remainers to the LDs. Many Remainers only voted Labour last time to oppose a hard Brexit, if Corbyn enables a hard Brexit and No Deal he will get squeezed with a lot of Remainers switching to the LDs while Leavers stick with the Tories
Poppycock! You still fail to understand that most voters - particularly Labour voters - do not share the Tory obsession with the Brexit issue. In so far as people do take notice, they are very likely to know who to blame for this mess.
Utter rubbish, every poll now has Brexit as the most important issue facing the UK. See too the polls of Labour members and voters in favour of EUref2 and the recent Yougov showing how large numbers of Labour voters would switch to the LDs if Corbyn failed to oppose Brexit.
Given it is May who got the Deal with the EU, the blame for No Deal will lie with Corbyn as much as the DUP and ERG plus if we go to No Deal the DUP will still back the Tories so there will likely not be another general election for years anyway
Comments
You’d have to believe that any deal was better than no deal to support May’s deal. I can’t see that argument covering many if any. The EU and the May both missed a trick by not making a trade deal the focus of the negotiations. Without the certainty or even likelihood of any acceptable let alone attractive trade deal, no deal is a much more attractive option than otherwise.
Any Deal is better than No Deal
I'm sure she will resign by the Summer but it's her duty to remain and not leave Downing St. during the initial phase of our "No Deal" exit.
https://www.spiked-online.com/2019/01/04/im-warming-to-the-idea-of-a-second-referendum/
Okay, ostensibly this is about sealing the deal and finally humiliating the Political Elite. But I wonder if something Freudian is at play here. Brendan will have a far better time of it if Brexit is reversed - all those commissions for lofty articles about the great Brexit betrayal - than if he has to side with the grubby reality of Brexit impoverishment. Seems a weird position to take suddenly just as No Deal is so close you can almost touch it.
Then once MPs comfortably reject EUref2 and Norway plus, probably by bigger margins than they reject the Deal, the Deal becomes the default alternative to No Deal
Why should 100 Labour Remainers break a three line whip to save a Tory PMs hated deal when they can hold out for a referendum? Labour+SNP+LD etc backing EURef2 has more support than May's Deal.
Changing PM would be as much use as changing the Captain on the Titanic after hitting the iceberg
The reason this is going to end in a No Deal exit is because so much time has been wasted going round and round and round in circles about complete nonsense. The more people have obsessed about a second referendum or all the other various ways of overturning the first referendum result, the more the UK's position has been confused... And all the time the clock has been running down.
Admittedly having Theresa's vanity election didn't help either so there's fault on both sides but seriously we leave within weeks. People need to get real.
Labour and Tory members are on the extreme ends of the Brexit divide ie Remain or No Deal. The average voter is far more supportive of the Deal pitted against those two extremes head to head
Like your analysis. I too think the Deal will eventually pass with help from Labour.
But beyond that, it plays very misty for me:
- Will the help be official or not?
- Will it lead to a summer GE?
- Would TM have to step down?
If you can answer me these, and the answers are good, I think we have it, you and I.
Apparently on no account are GPs or pharmacists to allow patients stockpiling of meds.
As I said once the Commons votes against EUref2 too, which it will given the vast majority of Tory Mps, DUP MPs and a number of Labour MPs oppose it, then even if most Labour MPs voted for EUref2 it will still fail. There will be no prospect of holding out for a referendum anymore, the Commons will have rejected it.
I also think most Labour MPs in Leave seats will prefer May's Deal to EUref2 and there is more support for May's Deal than EUref2.
Less than 150 MPs voted against invoking Article 50 or for the SM and CU last year, at least 215 will likely vote for May's Deal
It may lead to a summer GE once the Deal is passed and if the DUP them VONC the government
May could still lead the Tories at that general election given she has only said she will step down in 2022 and given the Tories at least tied Labour in most polls even after her Deal plan and she survived the no confidence vote in her she could still have a chance if winning it
And I plan to top up a lot more in next month, before everyone else starts panic buying.
But there is nowhere you can take the other side of the bet i'e, that there won't be a "No Deal" outcome. Interesting. The probability of no "No Deal" is obviously higher than the 75% implied by the Ladbrokes and Coral offer. I suspect the probability is much higher and no bookie wants to take it on, even to balance their books.
Would you share your last tin of baked beans with me?
Literally Remain and Leave coming together over a tin of Heinz - Sainsbury's might do a Christmas ad about us in 50 years?
End of conversation
The killer isn't market access, although that's important. It's regulation. It's not enough to be equivalent and follow the rules. You need to be compliant. Our regulated businesses are only compliant if the EU says they are. After Brexit, that is unlikely for financial services under any scenario and for chemicals and pharmaceuticals only if we take the full Single Market.
Deal passes, GE in June 2019, Corbyn v May, the EU still an issue but no longer dominating.
We could now have a crack at predicting the result of that election, but better not. It would be drifting into hubris territory.
I suspect that there are many 'professional' Leavers who secretly love the idea of Brexit being cancelled. It would provide a more than ample boost to many a career.
By rejecting this agreement with our closest trading partner, with an organisation we have been a member of for over 40 years, for no very clear reasons, or none that will be discernible or understandable to foreign governments, we have made ourselves look fundamentally unserious as a country, as a prospective partner. No Deal doesn't just affect us immediately; it will affect the perception of Britain for a long time to come. It will not be a good perception.
Us leavers will be browsing the shops full of Scottish Scallops, Icelandic Cod, avocados, kiwi fruit all at discounted prices.
Goeff Norcott will be making jokes about pasty looking remainers standing on their own wallowing in their own methane production.
I gave her the benefit of the doubt when she first became PM. I thought she might get a reasonable deal and have her party behind her. She seemed like a dull diligent Tory, nothing to shout home about but maybe dull diligence was what was needed. But the more decisions she made the less I thought of her - starting with her appointment of Johnson and Davis and her sacking of Osborne. Then that stupid conference speech, the refusal to listen to advice from people like Ivan Rogers, the refusal to consult Parliament, the hubristic election and the idiotic red lines. On and on it has gone, one cretinous decision after another - and now this ludicrous attempted bullying of the country and Parliament, this whole "my deal or nothing" nonsense as if the whole question of Britain's relationship with the EU should be boiled down to a vote of confidence or not in her. It's absurd.
That the Tory party has gone along with this simply shows that they are unfit to be in government.
We have two parties, neither of whom are acting in the national interest, both of whom are bovinely following leaders they know are not up to the job and whom they do not trust. Frankly, ropes and lampposts are the very minimum they deserve.
Because she is bluffing she won't have let many people in on her Plan B. But she will need advice on the merits of her Plan B and the logistics and minimum time needed.
I assume she is consulting Philip. Perhaps Lidington. Perhaps Rudd. Not the Leader of the House. Long shot - perhaps Grieve in strictest confidence?
Wish fulfilment much?
May effectively killed off her own deal when she told MPs that defeating it could mean no deal or no Brexit, thus holding out the prospect of achieving their desired outcome to both sets of her opponents. If she had merely said defeating it would lead to a no deal Brexit remainers might have been given more incentive to back her.
We might be OK for avocadoes, if ships from non-EU countries land as normal. Will they?
UK prices will rise though, if all fresh fruit and vegs. are in short supply.
So let's go for it later.
When we'll be weaker.
Pause.
I have to say, I'm not convinced.
Given it is May who got the Deal with the EU, the blame for No Deal will lie with Corbyn as much as the DUP and ERG plus if we go to No Deal the DUP will still back the Tories so there will likely not be another general election for years anyway