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NEW: Theresa May's allies privately concede they are on course to lose the meaningful vote due 12 days from now. Senior Tories are gaming a second vote or another delay. Downing Street insider: “If we have to have the vote 30 times, we will" https://t.co/1VcGLtfnJl
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https://twitter.com/brianspanner1/status/1081235467318775809?s=21
The current Tory rebellion means it requires decent opposition numbers. The minor parties all seem strongly against it so presumably Labour MPs would be needed to make the difference. It seems unlikely Corbyn would do anything but oppose and whip the party to oppose.
It seems the most likely route to the deal passing but without a substantial drop in the Tory rebellion is it requires large numbers of Labour MPs to vote against the party, their constituency members and their voters.
Anti Corbyn MPs, who I think are assumed to be the easiest to get to vote for the deal may have some opposition in their constituency already, when you have someone like Blair against it from the other side of the party starts to cut down the numbers that would support an MP voting for the deal. They would be sticking their necks (in job terms) out very far indeed for the deal.
This for a deal that they can't stand to begin with being pushed by a prime minister trying to run the clock down and use blackmail on them.
Although I do see this as more realistic than a huge reduction in the Tory rebellion it is asking a lot of a large number of Labour MPs to overcome all that and vote for it. Blackmail fails sometimes.
On the big picture, the PM, businesses, trade unions and maybe 80% of MPs think the deal would be better than No Deal. But when you look at the actual mechanism, everything seems to be pointing to the deal going down, repeatedly, until you run out of time.
I guess the problem I have with the Big Picture take in this case is that it would just as well predict Brexit not happening at all.
There is little in Alastair's lead that shouldn't have been obvious to the PM from the beginning. Yet if she ever had a strategy for assembling a majority for her deal, it has never been apparent. So she is left merely with tactics.
The lead also demonstrates why it is the Tory leavers who are her essential problem. Not least to the credibility of the whole project.
https://twitter.com/benedictevans/status/1081395782094413824
I suppose May would be 'Clever and Diligent' - so General Staff, not Leadership material.
Davis is clearly 'Stupid and Lazy' - one of the great majority.
If Boris were 'Clever and Lazy' that would say he was destined for great things - but I suspect he's more 'articulate and fluent' than 'clever'.
Who are the really dangerous ones - 'Stupid and Diligent'? Corbyn? He certainly hasn't wavered in his world view....
Zero incentive for the opposition to give her time of day. She is reaping exactly what she has sown. Only way I can see to get the votes she needs is 'subject to a referendum' it's the only thing that will get 100 non Tories on board. There aren't enough knighthoods that can be offered with the numbers she needs.
As for the UK, Sir Richard Mottram's famous quote seems highly applicable
In other words, although she can't get her flagship policy through the House, there's no alternative Government.
I'm very doubtful as to the desirability, and even more as to the wisdom, of a second referendum, but surely the only way out of the mess is to have a new House! Postpone Article 50 for six to 12 months and have a General Election in late May or early June. It would almost be a Coupon Election; for the Deal or against it as far as the Tories area concerned, and probably for Labour as well.
1) First you need to vote down the deal on its own, thus proving that There Is No Alternative
2) You need some evidence that the government would actually let Deal+Referendum happen. If they're going to squish it at some later stage, why take the hit?
I've always admired his humility....
No Deal Brexit is Brexit.
Inside May's head, she is going to deliver Brexit. So what flavour of Brexit do you want, Remainers? As 29th March approaches, which flavour do those Remainer MPs want to be associated with facilitating? By screaming that No Deal Brexit is so disastrous for the UK, they are rather hoist by their own petard if they then let that very thing happen. And for what? A bit of naked opportunism to get power over an apparently ravaged land?
Fast forward to 27 March. No Deal looms as inevitable. What do you do Yvette Cooper? What do you do, Chuka Umunna? What do you do, Sarah Wollaston?
Her deal won’t pass because it doesn’t deserve to pass. It’s just a capitulation to EU demands for no acceptable quid pro quo whatsoever. Asking the same question when nothing has changed is always going to solicit the same answer. She is simply showing she is scared witless by the EU but holds parliament in complete contempt.
2. May's deal will not pass the current House of Commons. The alternative to the deal is not no deal as May had tried to position, but delay/revoke. In no other circumstance would any MP choose to vote for a course of action that they know would make the country worse off - only stupid Brexiteers insisting they are right and the experts wrong think we'll be better off, the majority know how bad no deal will be and they won't let it happen
3. May's only chance of success is to bypass the MPs and go to the country. Neither an election (with her as Tory leader) nor a referendum will be popular, but she is stepping down at some point any way and has a strong sense of duty, so we may see her think "screw you" and do it anyway.
4. She will of course be no confidenced by Tory MPs. But would remain the PM whilst they knife each other for the "prize" of being the PM to deliver Brexit.
Fun times! A pity that I started my (brilliant) new job on Thursday and can't spend hours watching BBC Parliament eating popcorn as I could in my 10 week gap
If May’s deal won’t pass, we’ll have a no deal Brexit and get on withthe rest of our lives.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-surrey-46768203
Good article. The deal passing is not impossible, just unlikely.
Is there a market up on it yet?
It won't stick though.
Some time shortly before 29th March, Remain Fantasists need to let go of their fantasy. It's not happening. Stop being the toddler in the supermarket aisle having a screaming fit because they can't have chocolate for dinner - and decide which type of vegetables they want with their chicken. They can either have a role in the choice - or risk getting sprouts with every meal. For ever.
She has dissembled too many times for anyone to take her threat of this deal or no deal seriously.
Small businesses get a raw deal from banks in general. Retail is commodity and corporates have buying power.
Re the latter, note that the timing of deindustrialisation of the UK's manufacturing heartlands and the development of a chronic balance of payments deficit in manufactured goods with the rest of Europe took place during our period of EU membership.
She has a job to do. Delivering Brexit. Which flavour she delivers is not down to her. Her job is done so long as she delivers Brexit. It is up to MPs to decide which.
Her MPs had a chance to remove her. They chose not to take it.
Article 50 delay requires a Cabinet coup. And once you've had that coup and delayed - then what? You have bought more time to do what, precisely? And at what cost to get that delay?
If I were a Labour MP I would stick to my guns. A pM and Deal that has lost the support of about a third of its MPs cannot last.
I would not be blackmailed.
But he doesn't feel very strongly about the EU, unlike most people in senior levels of politics. Most people find that baffling, and probably concealing some secret animus. But Corbyn, whatever his faults, doesn't do secret beliefs. He's willing to compromise his views where the party wantds him to (Nato, Trident, monarchy), but that takes the form of saying "I don't agree with this personally, but that's our position". What he also doesn't do is pretend to passion that he doesn't feel. He thinks the EU on balance worth belonging to, and that's it. Similarly, he supposes that a referendum may be the right thing to do if the party wants it, but other options should be exhausted first.
We're so used to politicians who mime beliefs they don't hold that we get accustomed to second-guessing "what they really think and won't say". That was certainly true of Blair and Cameron, and also of some of Corbyn's allies. It's a mistake in his case. WYSIWYG.
That does not tally with him refusing to share a stage with Cameron et al to campaign for Remain (nor the ever so slight disparity in effort he put into the Remain and 2017 GE campaigns).
https://twitter.com/pm4eastren/status/1081264965695221764?s=21
This is not a surprise but I’m sure Theresa May welcomes it nevertheless.
The problem for May is if that first "backbone" vote is not close - in that case, Tories may feel there's no point in jumping on the sinking ship. So I'm not sure about it either.
https://twitter.com/marcan42/status/1079849601908133893
The reason why you don't want Huawei systems anywhere near core infrastructure is because the code is a pile of exploitable untested crap.....
Now the curious thing is that the only countries with the complete source code are china and ourselves as we insisted on it.
In the real world the economy is now fading fast. By end of March we will be in recession without an agreement. Will this put added pressure on the MPs or lead to the cancellation of A50.
Will we get a motion asking TM to cancel A50 without an agreement and if she loses it and ignores it what would happen?
I think more Leavers are oriented around that result than a party one, but Labour voters tend to be more focused on the party. Labour tribalism is far stronger than Conservative tribalism.
At the very least, referendum-ID is a rival to party-ID.
I think Ken Clarke said Brexit should be delayed for at least five years because that's how long it would take to organise. He did try to explain why but Humprrys in his enthusiasm to hear his own voice and show the rest of us how pompous he could be talked over him through the whole interview. With Clarkes slight stutter the whole cacophony sounded like Schoenberg
https://whatukthinks.org/eu/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/WUKT-EU-Briefing-Paper-15-Oct-18-Emotional-legacy-paper-final.pdf
A quite astonishing percentage of the population calls themselves a very strong or fairly strong Remainer or Leaver (I’d call myself fairly strong). Under 40% have a very or fairly strong party allegiance.
Will his good sense rub off on the 350-400 (Of both the No deal and No Brexit) flavours of MPs who can only see their preffere d outcome if the deal goes down ?
Maybe that explains the tension within Labour over this.
As you point out, a significant number of Labour voters care deeply about this, but the Parliamentary party seems happy with a combination of let’s blames the Tories for whatever happens, and Europe just isn’t that important to us. Add to that a belief that May might be bluffing, and I can’t see more than a handful risking their careers.
The longer she has left it, the more unpopular her deal has become, as even those who back it do so fairly grudgingly, while it’s a free subject of point scoring for the many groups who oppose it.
A referendum might force a choice, but while the deal is mired in Parliament, there are always going to be other possibilities (whatever juveniles like MM might claim to the contrary), until it is too late.
Does anyone who pays attention to Irish politics/media detect that there is any level of dissent/criticism of Varadkar/Irish Govt given the increasing likelihood of no deal? l get that, now, politically it is almost impossible for them to back down now, but one would have thought there must be some questioning of how they have managed to get into a situation where it looks increasingly likely that the accepted worst scenario for (Southern) Ireland ie. no deal is going to happen. Given that presumably everyone accepts that in isolation "Deal minus backstop" is significantly better for Ireland than "No deal minus backstop"?
And it will look even more silly if all the warnings about "in the event of no deal we MUST enforce a hard border", then don't actually come to pass in reality, creating the question of why the backstop was insisted upon in the first place (when most people i think accept that, backstop or no backstop, neither EU/Ireland or British Government would want to do anything other than the bare minimum in border infrastructure).
Or is Irish politics/media still content with the line that there isn't much that can or could be done given the state of internal UK politics?
I agree with Alastair that TM's best target is remainer MPs. There are more of them and they are less ideological. She needs to kill off the last unicorn (the 2nd referendum) and force the House to confront No Deal, make it clear that she is prepared to allow it to happen. Say to MPs, "Do you really want that? Ok, so go ahead. Make my day."
Blackmail, in other words, and quite right too. The approach is perfectly logical. We're leaving, per the 2016 referendum, and there are 2 ways to do it, with a deal or without one, and with a deal means this deal because there is no other deal and nor can there be. So choose.
I think the ramping up in public of No Deal 'planning' (lol) indicates that this is the plan. I hope it is because it is the right one and I do want the Deal to pass.
And consequently all the legal advice that Labour make great play of trumpeting should actually allow them to comfortably back the deal if that (permanence of customs union) were a genuine sticking point.
A statistic to cheer us all up...
Marcus Harris made an eye-catching 79 and, if none of his team-mates pass that, he will hold the record for the lowest highest score in a Test series for Australia in 100 years...
In any case, I would prefer a Corbynite Peoples Brexit, protecting environmental and social rights to a Redwood Brexit.
I think there would be a GE soon enough, but even if not, there is no point in voting for something (eg The Deal) that you do not want.
You may think differently, but I think Labour solidarity will hold. If the Deal fails, it fails because Mays on party would not back it.
To Labour, sovereignty is less of an issue as long as the policies are acceptable. That is where the divide occurs. But its in-line with the EU's stated aim, a single political union within Europe. That means a single parliament, a single judiciary and a single army. Some Remainers refuse to accept that simple fact, but it's why there can never be negotiation on FOM.
I've no problems with Remainers as long as the Remain grouping admit this, but they don't . They pretend it will never happen, but it's also why they're inhibited in promoting the EU. It restricts them to arguing that Brexit is bad, and all Brexit voters are racist/fascists.
Many on here will be happy with a single European country. It has merits. They may be proud to be a citizen of Nowhere. They're entitled to their opinions. But let's be honest about this debate.
So how does it pass? I think that there are 2 options, both unlikely.
The first is a volte face by Labour. We don't like the deal but to default to no deal would be an abrogation of our responsibilities. We will abstain. On Alastair's numbers May can win the vote (just) if Labour abstain. Whether May can get some cover for Corbyn to do this, such as some gesture or assurance about the future trade deal from Brussels, remains to be seen but it would certainly help.
The second is a volte face by the ERG if they can be persuaded that revocation really is the alternative. Even then there is work to be done around the edges given the position of the DUP. What May would give for the 13 MPs she carelessly misplaced in 2017.
I would give option 1 about a 30% chance. I do think Corbyn wants to deliver a Brexit that respects the vote but the temptation to play games is great.
Option 2 is hard to give the time of day, 10% at most.
The more likely option it seems to me at this stage is a no deal Brexit. The complete incompetence and dereliction of duty in failing to prepare for such a scenario over the last 2 years is going to come home to roost although I suspect quite a lot can be done at short notice once we realise there really is no alternative. There were far, far more mitigating factors for Chamberlain than there is ever going to be for May. What a legacy.
Also No Deal leads to Scottish Independence as massive poll leads show. Fine by me but a very damaging way to get there. How it will affect Ireland, south and north, I am not sure, but it is unlikely to be pretty.
On the concluding point that she is futilely trying to placate leavers rather than trying to gain the support of remainers outside her party, I agree it is not working but I do understand it. That means getting Labour remainers on board, which is also futile since, well, they see remain as a possibility. Or it requires just adopting Labour's policy, but that policy is to renegotiate something different, and probably loses her many of the votes she currently has. So she has attempted to get her party behind her, presumably to make it closer and pressure the Labour votes she would sill need. It isn't happening.
As has been the case for a long time, it is no deal or remain as the options now. As much as she clearly does not want no deal, May would presumably try to no deal, and I guess it is a question of if the Tory remainers follow through on their threats if that happens.
How close does she need to get in the MV for the Deal to keep breathing?
50?
Which will be redoubled if David Warner comes back and bats as well as Mike Gatting did after his ban...
That it was pulled at the last minute, therefore, seems to me to be a very strong indication that while May's team might say that they will hold the vote again, many times if needed, that the reality will be quite different. If they really thought they'd get another shot why not hold the vote back then?
(In fact i believe that originally Labour were originally opposed to a (UK encompassing) Customs Union, but came to support it as their solution to the backstop. It then evolved into a "permanent" customs union to distinguish from May's proposals.