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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Matters of confidence. What to expect if the government loses a vote of no confidence
Care to make it interesting? As if politics wasn’t already volatile enough, the government faces the persistent threat of a vote of no confidence. Jeremy Corbyn made a complete ass of himself and several of his most senior colleagues before the Christmas break with an on-off-on-again-off-again vote of no confidence, but he will have other opportunities.
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Thanks, Alastair.
The problem with a train wreck is that people often get hurt.
I'm not sure how many MPs want a GE - with things so febrile if I was a Labour MP in a Leave seat* or a Tory MP in a Remain one I'd want to put it off as long as possible. Unemployed now, or in 2022?
*Or even a Remain seat, depending how much more of Magic Grandpa's constructive ambiguity wears off.
But 'chaos' would have been shorter.
Is there a viable possibility that she'd pull a Dave and flounce out? Lacks a spouse with family money, but he'll have been well rewarded in the city and she's got a good pension.
Temptation to walk away citing health much be a factor.
But that General Election is also likely to unravel the unique arithmetic that gives the DUP their leverage. What they would like best is for a new Tory leader who will be alligned better with their own views on Brexit, whilst continuing to send pork by the shipload to NI. So no deal Brexit, May stepping down and a Leaver taking over will be just fine and dandy with the DUP.
Hopefully, May will procrastinate as long as possible, because IMO it is important that the UK formally leaves the EU at 2300 on 29/3/19.
The game could end tomorrow. Their call....
She would no doubt argue that flights of fancy over other options that don't deliver Brexit are "dangerous, contemptible and deserve to fail"......
Running down the clock to deny oxygen to any other thought or to fail to offer anything to different views in parliament is unforgivable from a PM who claims to have the national interest at heart. She is abusing her positional power to ram her own myopic interpretation of Brexit down our throats.
She will either pull this off, win her deal and salt the Earth or cause chaos. Not what we want from a PM.
I knew you'd be excited.
Unfortunately, they're just season match bets.
Magnussen to beat Grosjean is 1.95. That's the only one looking remotely value, but locking up money for a year over essentially a coin toss bet is not something I'll be doing.
As an aside, I do have some more inter-season blogs ready to go, I'm just waiting a little while. Only 2-3 more so plenty of time to shove them up ahead of testing.
May absolutely will try and win a 2nd confidence motion. But I don't think she will be able to run down the entire 14 days, and as you've written the power discussions will be about her rather than involving her. I find it unlikely that having lost a Confidence vote she would be able to do anything at all that would enable her to win one.
And whilst she is off trying to pull off a miracle the other powers will also be moving. Jezbollah will be heavily into coalition negotiations with the PLP, saner Tories like Grieve will be in discussion with the rest of the cross party WhatsApp group about who could lead a temporary Brexit unity government to deliver a referendum - what the piece didnt mention was the process of how the Palace plays these steps.
May would stay on as PM until a replacement was appointed - that is her constitutional duty as it was Gordon Brown's in the 5 days of Coalition discussions in 2010. I expect though that whatever remaining power she had will quickly erode in that period, which means that someone else must be given the chance to form a government as it quickly becomes apparent that she cannot. Which suggests Corbyn, but he also would have difficulties in his negotiations with the PLP, SNP, DUP etc.
There is no precedent because the FTPA is too new. But is there a scenario where in the 14 days we have PM May for a few days, then PM Corbyn for a week, then a 3rd PM given a few days at the end to try and win a vote? A senior backbench figure in the WhatsApp group- Hilary Benn or Dominic Grieve perhaps?
I found the piece convincing and attractive. Perhaps the time has come to stop predicting what might happen and instead get involved by going over the heads of our rotting political class. So my prediction this coming year is that we the people will start asserting ourselves.
I stick with only my one previous point, not mentioned in this article, that the one certainty over the coming months is that Mr Speaker will at some point make a complete arse of himself.
PS London is looking awesome at the moment, off on the big wheel this morning, being a tourist with the wife for a few days.
It’s ironic that is where Brexit has taken us and even more ironic that half the Leavers are cheering it along.
The alternative is an ill-conceived wish-list of Not Brexit. At least I'm confonting reality and making unpalatable choices. We had a vote to Leave. We need to honour that. The risk to democracy of not doing so is large and troubling.
Again, the people shouting loudest about the risks of No Deal Brexit are those Remainers who could prevent it.
Whether it could ever be cohesive enough to hold together to even agree on a leader, let alone form a government and formulate an alternate policy to May’s forced choice between a shit sandwich and a round of Russian roulette is doubtful, though.
And it would require a highly persuasive and decisive leader..........
So general election it would be.
If that’s true in Parliament then May almost has a majority.
The odds of the cliff are looking good.
Edit: it’s also historic nonsense, look at 1848 for example.
You might find it attractive and therefore convincing but how much online bile and stupidity is transferred to a face to face conversation. [read Decca Aitkenhead in the Times on people who think that life can be ring-fenced in the manner of a Facebook page for a on-point conversation]
But of course playing on railway tracks is both illegal, and extremely dangerous.
If you want people to put their name to the deal this really matters. Fear if something worse is not enough. Especially when the something else was avoidable.
The bigger problem would be coming up with a program compelling enough to transcend party loyalty for those who are remainers but not fanatically so.
It’s fairly unlikely that a call for a second referendum falls into that category - and almost certain that revocation of Article 50 doesn’t.
If the Tories get a majority or strong minority with the DUP again then they'll just keep ramrodding May's old deal through. If Corbyn gets in with a majority he'll renegotiate. If Corbyn + Minor parties is the only viable government then there will be a referendum.....
On Scottish independence
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/12/29/trump-government-shutdown-tweets-presidential-harassment-1076872
...Negotiations to reopen the government are happening exactly where White House aides want them — on President Donald Trump’s Twitter feed.
As the federal government shutdown entered its eighth day on Saturday, the president once again had no public events on his schedule. Instead, he spent the day making private calls to congressional allies, holding closed-door huddles with White House aides — and tweeting....
Which is where a unity government comes in. Tory MPs don't want a majority Tory government led by May, Johnson or Rees-Mogg. Labour MPs don't want a majority Labour government led by Corbyn. There are enough WhatsApp Tory and Labour MPs to hold a majority with the SNP and LibDems, they just need to agree a leader.
I am deadly serious about this WhatsApp group. Might make for some very long odds options for next PM...
That's a horrifying thought, TBH. An election called for 4th or 11th April, and we 'leave' during the campaign. or an election on 21st March....... no, doesn't bear thinking about.
A unity government is of course a possibility. I just don’t think it very likely to get off the ground in the very limited time available.
How on earth do they get 325?l
Oh gosh, what terribly sad news. I had many run ins with Plato over the years. SBS tragically passed away after an illness. I remember that well.
We had zero concept of there being any danger to the train or passengers in it at all. It's one of a list of things I did as a child that I feel bad about these days... casual racism, sexism, homophobia are among the others sadly.
Mr. Tyson, yeah, Mr. SBS was a top chap. Must be about a decade or so that he passed away.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m0001s0q
1992 and 2008 are perfect examples.
Such sad news again about Plato.
Who can seriously doubt that the backstop would have been swept through with a plethora of platitudes and assurances for the greater good if May had got her 50+ majority. Given it is nearly 40 years since this last happened what are the odds on such an eventuality happening again after a GE?
The DUP have by happenstance found themselves with real power at exactly the time that they need it to protect their position in the Union. Whether they are doing that successfully or sensibly is not the issue: the point is that they are players. They would be crazy to give that up. Therefore they will not vote for a VonC unless it is certain to stop Mays deal coming into force. And even then...
https://twitter.com/JFCrisp/status/1079135229653192706
The treaty does 3 things. (1) Settles the bill. (2) Protects citizens' rights. (3) Guarantees an open border in Ireland.
Number 3 is problematic for leavers, yes, I see that. Because it steers the FTA to one of close alignment absent a high tech solution to the border.
But for remainers? What on earth is the problem with any of it? Do they not want to settle our liabilities? Do they not want to protect citizens' rights? Do they not want a close future relationship which ensures an open border in Ireland? It's a yes to all three, surely.
So what is going on here?
When pressed, the principal objection of remainers appears to be that we are 'giving up our voice' in EU decision making. Que? Of course we are! We're leaving. The clear and absurd inference is that they will only support a deal that retains our rights of membership. In other words, for them, brexit means remain.
C'mon. It's a nonsense.